Power supply insurance method, device and equipment based on load coordinated regulation and control, and medium

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of power supply insurance, and particularly relates to a power supply insurance method based on load coordinated regulation and control, which comprises the following steps: acquiring a main power grid supply insurance level and a main power grid load regulation and control capacity; generating regional power grid load regulation and control capacity according to the supply insurance level of the main power grid and the load regulation and control capacity of the main power grid; formulating a basic power supply insurance scheme according to the regional power grid load regulation and control capacity; constructing an intra-day time sequence correlation scene, and performing risk prediction on the power insurance and supply basic scheme to obtain a risk index; checking the basic power supply insurance scheme according to the risk index; if the verification is not passed, correcting the basic power supply insurance scheme according to the risk index to obtain a corrected power supply insurance scheme as a final basic power supply insurance scheme; and when the verification is passed, a final power supply insurance basic scheme is obtained. The flexibility of power grid operation is improved, and the power utilization service level of the power grid during the power supply guarantee period is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of power supply guarantee, and particularly relates to a power supply guarantee method, device, equipment and medium based on load collaborative regulation. Background Art

[0002] At present, the installed capacity of new energy units such as wind power and photovoltaic power has been continuously increasing. However, the new energy units have significant intermittency and randomness, resulting in enhanced uncertainty on the power supply side of the power system; on the demand side, the power loads with seasonality and spatio-temporal randomness such as air conditioners, electric heating, and electric vehicles are growing rapidly. Affected by the above factors, power tight balance scenarios occur from time to time. Especially during the peak summer and winter seasons, some regional power grids have local and time-periodic power supply gaps under the influence of extreme climate and meteorological conditions, and even have to take measures such as power cuts and power rationing, and the power supply guarantee pressure is severe. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a power supply guarantee method, device, equipment and medium based on load collaborative regulation, so as to solve the problem of large power supply guarantee pressure caused by the uncertainty on the power supply side and the demand side in the power grid in the background art.

[0004] To achieve the above purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions: In the first aspect of the present invention, a power supply guarantee method based on load collaborative regulation is provided, including: Obtaining the power supply guarantee level of the main power grid and the load regulation capacity of the main power grid; Generating the load regulation capacity of the regional power grid according to the power supply guarantee level of the main power grid and the load regulation capacity of the main power grid; Formulating a basic power supply guarantee plan according to the load regulation capacity of the regional power grid; Constructing an intraday time series correlation scenario, predicting the risk of the basic power supply guarantee plan, and obtaining a risk index; Checking the basic power supply guarantee plan according to the risk index; when the check fails, correcting the basic power supply guarantee plan according to the risk index to obtain a corrected power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan; when the check passes, obtaining the final basic power supply guarantee plan.

[0005] Preferably, the obtaining the power supply guarantee level of the main power grid and the load regulation capacity of the main power grid includes: Calculating the power deficit P D ( h ), and the calculation formula is as follows: (1) In the above formula, h is the hour number, is the predicted output value of the new energy unit, is the available capacity of the thermal power unit, is the available capacity of the hydropower unit, is the predicted value of the load power, is the reserve capacity; Taking the peak annual load P peak annual as the reference value, calculate according to the following formula P D ( h ) The per-unit value in percentage form :

[0006] According to the size of, determine the main power grid supply guarantee level according to the preset level range s , determine the main power grid load regulation capacity according to the main power grid supply guarantee level P R ( h ).

[0007] Preferably, generating the load regulation capacity of each regional power grid according to the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity includes: Based on the flexible weight allocation mechanism, allocate the main power grid load regulation capacity P R ( h ), form the regulation capacity of the regional power grid i , P R,i ( h ), the calculation formula is as follows:

[0008] In the above formula, φ ,i ( h ) is the flexible weight factor of the regional power grid i , which is weighted by the proportion of different load types of the regional power grid h at the moment and the same type of load in the main power grid, and the calculation formula is as follows: i

[0009] N In the above formula, n is the total number of load types defined by the main power grid according to the load classification management requirements during the power supply guarantee period, P is the serial number of the load type; P n ( h ) and P i,n ( h ) are respectively h at the moment the main power grid and the regional power gridi Power of the n category of load; h The power supply guarantee level at s h , λ n ( s h ) is the weight coefficient of the n category of load under this power supply guarantee level, and satisfies:

[0010] Preferably, according to the load regulation capacity of the regional power grid, a basic power supply guarantee plan is formulated, including: Obtain the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, calculate the price elasticity capacity based on the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, and use the price elasticity capacity as the peak shaving capacity of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy; Compare the regional load capacity with the peak shaving capacity to determine the time periods when the peak shaving capacity is insufficient to cover the regional load regulation capacity; Construct an optimization model for the time periods when the peak shaving capacity is insufficient to cover the regional load regulation capacity, and determine the optimization strategy; among them, the optimization model includes an objective function that minimizes the sum of the shift power, peak avoidance power, and power curtailment power, and the corresponding constraint conditions; Solve the objective function based on the optimization strategy and constraint conditions to obtain the basic power supply guarantee plan.

[0011] Preferably, the optimization model specifically includes:

[0012] In the above formula, F load_manage is the objective function, , , are decision variables, representing the shift power, peak avoidance power, and power curtailment power respectively; , are the allowable shift capacity and allowable peak avoidance capacity respectively; is the regional power grid i at h the peak shaving capacity at the moment; γ s , γ a , γ r are the shift penalty coefficient, peak avoidance penalty coefficient, and power curtailment penalty coefficient respectively; Solve the optimization model. When the value of the objective function is the smallest, a basic power supply guarantee plan including shift, peak avoidance, and power curtailment is obtained.

[0013] Preferably, an intraday time-series correlation scenario is constructed to predict the risk of the basic power supply guarantee plan, and a risk index is obtained: An intraday time-series correlation scenario is constructed to obtain short-time-series random samples, and a short-term operation risk index is calculated. The risk index includes the intraday load outage probability and the intraday expected loss of load power. The calculation formulas are as follows:

[0014] In the above formula, L OLP represents the intraday load outage probability, M is the total number of samples in the intraday time-series correlation scenario, is the m number of power outage hours included in the E ELO th intraday time-series correlation scenario sample; is the m th h hour's load outage probability of the

[0015] th intraday time-series correlation scenario sample. Preferably, the basic power supply guarantee plan is checked according to the risk index: ε ILOLP and ε IEELO are determined. If the basic power supply guarantee plan meets the following formula, the plan passes the check, and the basic power supply guarantee plan is output:

[0016] When the basic power supply guarantee plan fails to pass the check, the load regulation capacity of the main power grid is increased according to the ICER curve P R ( h ) until formula (16) is satisfied, and a revised power supply guarantee plan is obtained as the final basic power supply guarantee plan.

[0017] In the second aspect of the present invention, a power supply guarantee device based on load coordinated regulation is provided, including: A collection module for obtaining the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity; A decomposition module for generating the regional power grid load regulation capacity according to the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load regulation capacity; A formulation module for formulating a basic power supply guarantee plan according to the regional power grid load regulation capacity; A construction module for constructing an intraday time-series correlation scenario to predict the risk of the basic power supply guarantee plan and obtain a risk index; A checking module, configured to check the basic power supply guarantee plan according to risk indicators; An updating module, configured to, when the check fails, correct the basic power supply guarantee plan according to risk indicators to obtain a corrected power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan; An obtaining module, configured to obtain the final basic power supply guarantee plan.

[0018] In a third aspect of the present invention, an electronic device is provided, including a processor and a memory. The processor is configured to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the power supply guarantee method based on load collaborative regulation.

[0019] In a fourth aspect of the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium is provided. The computer-readable storage medium stores at least one instruction, and when the at least one instruction is executed by a processor, the power supply guarantee method based on load collaborative regulation is implemented.

[0020] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: In the scenario of power shortage, a power supply guarantee strategy based on load collaborative regulation is generated. On the premise of realizing the rebalancing of power and electricity quantity, the flexibility resources on the demand side under the power market mechanism are fully mobilized, the flexibility of power grid operation is improved, and the power consumption service level of the power grid during the power supply guarantee period is improved; The construction of the intraday time series correlation scenario is proposed, the short-term operation risk during the day is predicted, and the power supply guarantee strategy is evaluated from multiple dimensions, considering the uncertainty of the supply and demand links, and improving the anti-interference ability; Based on the dynamic electricity price guidance and the ordered regulation priority optimization model, the flexibility resources on the demand side are activated, the flexibility of power grid operation is significantly improved, and the power consumption autonomy of users is guaranteed; A multi-dimensional evaluation system including indicators such as the orderly regulation power of the load, the intraday load outage probability, and the intraday expected loss of electricity quantity of the load is constructed, and a threshold is set in combination with the ICER curve to realize the closed-loop verification and incremental correction of the supply guarantee strategy. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0021] The specification drawings forming a part of this application are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention. The schematic embodiments of the present invention and their descriptions are used to explain the present invention and do not constitute an improper limitation to the present invention. In the drawings: Figure 1 It is a flowchart of a power supply guarantee method based on load collaborative regulation according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention; Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram for evaluating the peak shaving ability of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention; Figure 3Schematic diagram of the basic power supply guarantee plan based on the coordination of dynamic electricity price guidance and orderly load regulation management in Embodiment 1 of the present invention; Figure 4 Schematic diagram of the photovoltaic intra-day time series sample for risk deduction in Embodiment 1 of the present invention; Figure 5 Schematic diagram of the load intra-day time series sample for risk deduction in Embodiment 1 of the present invention; Figure 6 ICER curve of the IEELO capacity in Embodiment 1 of the present invention; Figure 7 ICER curve of the LOLP capacity in Embodiment 1 of the present invention; Figure 8 Structural block diagram of a power supply guarantee device based on load coordinated regulation in Embodiment 2 of the present invention; Figure 9 Structural block diagram of an electronic device in Embodiment 3 of the present invention. Detailed implementation manners

[0022] The present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and in conjunction with the embodiments. It should be noted that, without conflict, the embodiments in the present application and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other.

[0023] The following detailed descriptions are all exemplary descriptions, aiming to provide further detailed descriptions of the present invention. Unless otherwise specified, all technical terms adopted by the present invention have the same meaning as commonly understood by those of ordinary skill in the art to which the present application belongs. The terms used in the present invention are only for describing specific implementation manners and are not intended to limit the exemplary embodiments according to the present invention.

[0024] Embodiment 1 As Figure 1 shown, a power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated regulation includes: Step 1. Obtain the power supply guarantee level of the main power grid and the load regulation capacity of the main power grid: Calculate the power deficit capacity through load and new energy power prediction P D ( h ), evaluate the power balance status of the main power grid, and the power deficit capacity calculation formula is as shown in Equation (1): (1) In Equation (1), h is the hour number, is the predicted output value of the new energy unit, the available capacity of the thermal power unit, the available capacity of the hydropower unit, the predicted load power value, Spare capacity; Annual peak load P The peak annual benchmark value is calculated according to formula (2) P D ( h )Percentage value P * D( h ): (2) according to P * D( h ) and determine the main grid supply guarantee level and main grid load control capacity according to the level range in Table 1. P R ( h ): Table 1 Main grid supply guarantee level and main grid load control capacity

[0025] It should be pointed out that the number and boundary values ​​of the value intervals in Table 1 can be adjusted according to the actual situation of power grid operation.

[0026] Step 2: Based on the supply guarantee level of the main power grid and the load control capacity of the main power grid, a flexible weight allocation mechanism is used to generate the load control capacity of the regional power grid: In order to reasonably distribute the main grid load control capacity generated in step 1 among the regional power grids P R ( h ), the present invention proposes a flexible weight allocation mechanism to share the load control capacity of the main grid and form a regional grid load i Control capacity P R,i ( h ), the calculation formula is as follows: (3) In formula (3), φ ,i ( h ) is the regional power grid i The flexibility weight factor is given by h Regional power grid at this time i The weighted composition of different load types and similar loads of the main grid is calculated as follows: (4) In formula (4), N The total number of load types defined by the main network according to the load classification management requirements during the supply guarantee period. n is the serial number of the load type; P n( h ) and P i,n ( h ) are respectively h the power of the n th type of load of the main grid and the regional grid at a certain moment; assuming h the power supply guarantee level at a certain moment is s h , λ n ( s h ) is the weight coefficient of the n th type of load under this power supply guarantee level, and satisfies Equation (5): (5) The method proposed by the present invention supports the main grid operators to flexibly design and define the load classification management scheme during the power supply guarantee period. When N = 1, that is, no distinction is made between load types. At this time, it satisfies λ n ( s h ) ≡ 1, and the flexible weight factor is determined by the proportion of the regional grid load in the main grid; when differential management of the load is required, λ n ( s h ) is defined as needed.

[0027] Specifically, taking 3 types of load classification as an example: 1) Classify the main grid load and the regional grid load into 3 categories: total load, high-energy-consuming load, and high-emission load; 2) Corresponding to the 3 types of loads, define 3 load weight coefficients: total weight coefficient λ 1 ( s h ), energy-consuming weight coefficient λ 2 ( s h ), and emission weight coefficient λ 3 ( s h ); 3) Make differential assignments to the above weight coefficients according to the power supply guarantee level: in the scenario with a higher power supply guarantee level, the total weight is the dominant factor to improve the efficiency of the power supply guarantee measures; in the scenario with a lower power supply guarantee level, the energy-consuming weight and the emission weight are taken into account to optimize the effect of the power supply guarantee strategy in terms of energy conservation and carbon emission reduction; 4) After determining the assignment scheme of each weight factor, generate the regulation capacity of the regional grid load according to Formulas (3)-(5).

[0028] Table 2 presents a weight factor assignment scheme: Table 2 Differential Assignment Scheme of Weight Coefficients Considering Grid Power Supply Guarantee Level

[0029] Step 3. Develop a basic power supply guarantee plan based on the coordination of dynamic electricity price guidance and orderly load regulation management according to the load regulation capacity of the regional power grid: First, obtain the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, calculate the price elasticity capacity based on the daily load and baseline load capacity after dynamic electricity price guidance, and use the price elasticity capacity as the peak shaving capacity of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy: Evaluate the peak shaving ability of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy, and express the daily load level after dynamic electricity price guidance in the form of the superposition of the baseline load capacity and the price elasticity capacity: (6) In the above formula, is the load at the h-th hour after dynamic electricity price guidance, is the baseline load capacity at the h-th hour and is the price elasticity capacity at the h-th hour, where the baseline load capacity is obtained from the load forecasting link, and the price elasticity capacity is estimated according to the following formula: (7) In the above formula, e h,h is the self-elasticity coefficient at the h -th hour, e i,j ( i , j = 1, 2, …, 24, i ≠ j ) is the cross-elasticity coefficient at the i , j -th hour, d 0 ( h ) is the change in the initial electricity price, Δ d ( h ) is the change in the dynamic electricity price compared with the initial electricity price.

[0030] Taking the TOU electricity price mechanism as an example, the value-taking methods of the self-elasticity coefficient and the cross-elasticity coefficient are further illustrated.

[0031] For the self-elasticity coefficient: (8) For the cross-elasticity coefficient: (9) Among them, Upeak , U off-peak and U valley are the peak period, normal period, and valley period for implementing TOU electricity price; e p-p , e o-o and e v-v are the self-elasticity coefficients of the peak period, normal period, and valley period respectively; e p-o , e p-v and e o-v are the cross-elasticity coefficients of peak period - normal period, peak period - valley period, and normal period - valley period respectively.

[0032] The self-elasticity coefficient and cross-elasticity coefficient are related to the load type, and the values are shown in Table 3: Table 3 Self-elasticity coefficient and cross-elasticity coefficient under TOU mechanism

[0033] According to formulas (6)-(9), calculate the price elasticity capacity of the daily load for 24 hours; among them, the price elasticity capacity of the peak period is the peak shaving capacity of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy, and then complete the evaluation of the peak shaving ability of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy. The peak shaving effect of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy is as Figure 2 shown; Compare the regional load capacity and peak shaving capacity to determine the time periods when the peak shaving capacity is insufficient to cover the regional load regulation capacity; Construct an optimization model for the time periods when the capacity is insufficient to cover the regional load regulation capacity to determine the optimization strategy. The present invention takes peak shifting, peak avoidance, and power rationing as the basic optimization strategies, and the peak shifting has the highest priority, peak avoidance is the second, and power rationing has the lowest priority. Among them, the optimization model includes an objective function of the sum of the peak shifting power, peak avoidance power, and power rationing power being the smallest, and the corresponding constraint conditions. Calculate according to the optimization model expressed by the following formula: (10) In the above formula, F load_manage is the objective function, , , are decision variables, representing the peak shifting power, peak avoidance power, and power rationing power respectively; , are the allowable peak shifting capacity and allowable peak avoidance capacity respectively; is the regional power grid i at h the peak shaving capacity at the moment; γ s , γa , γ r They are the peak-shifting penalty coefficient, the peak-avoiding penalty coefficient, and the power curtailment penalty coefficient respectively, which are used to reflect the priority of orderly load regulation. In this embodiment, they are respectively assigned the values of 0.1, 1.0, and 10.0.

[0034] Solve the optimization model. When the value of the objective function is the smallest, a basic power supply guarantee plan including peak-shifting, peak-avoiding, and power curtailment is obtained, as Figure 3 shown.

[0035] Step 4: Construct the intra-day time series correlation scenario, conduct risk prediction on the basic power supply guarantee plan, and obtain risk indicators: Overlay the short-term prediction data of distributed power sources and loads with perturbation data to construct an intra-day time series correlation scenario of photovoltaic power sources for risk deduction: The m th intra-day time series sample of the photovoltaic power source at the h th hour of the power generation capacity P PV,m ( h ) is as follows: (11) In the above formula, is the basic power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power source (the power generation capacity under 25 o °C and the reference irradiance intensity G 0 ), which is a constant; C is the influence coefficient of irradiance intensity on temperature; G ( h ) and T ( h ) are the predicted values of the intra-day irradiance intensity and air temperature respectively, v m,h is the meteorological perturbation factor, which follows a normal distribution with a mean of 0, that is (12) is the prediction variance of meteorological data, which reflects the accuracy of meteorological prediction.

[0036] An intra-day time series sample of a photovoltaic power source constructed by the present invention is as Figure 4 shown.

[0037] Construct the intra-day time series correlation scenario of wind power generation: Statistically analyze a large amount of weather data and use the Weibull probability distribution function for modeling. The Weibull expression (13) and the probability density function expression (16) of wind speed are as follows respectively: (13) (14) In the formula,v represents the actual wind speed, a is the scale parameter, b is the shape parameter (b = 1.8 - 2.8). In this paper, a = 6, b = 1.8 is selected for simulation, The functional relationship between the active power output of wind power generation and the wind speed is as follows: (15) In the formula, P WT is the active power output of the fan, P e is the maximum output power of the fan, v r , v c and v e are the cut-in wind speed, cut-out wind speed and rated wind speed of the fan respectively.

[0038] It should be noted that for the construction of the intra-day time series correlation scenarios of other types of new energy, it can be realized by referring to the photovoltaic module modeling method and wind turbine modeling method of the present invention. For the sake of simplicity, in this embodiment, photovoltaic and wind power are taken as examples, and other new energy types will not be elaborated one by one.

[0039] Secondly, the present invention also constructs a time series correlation scenario reflecting the uncertain factors of the load, as shown in the following formula.

[0040] (16) In the above formula, P load,m ( h ) is the load power of the m th intra-day time series sample at the h th hour; P load,0 ( h ) is the load prediction value considering meteorological factors; r m,h is the load prediction error coefficient, which is a continuous random variable subject to a normal distribution.

[0041] (17) is the load prediction variance, which reflects the accuracy of the load prediction.

[0042] An intra-day time series correlation scenario constructed by the present invention is as Figure 5 shown.

[0043] Through the intra-day time series correlation scenario, short-time series random samples are obtained, and short-term operation risk indicators are calculated. The risk indicators include the intra-day load outage probability and the intra-day load expected loss of electricity. The calculation formulas are as follows: (18) In the above formula, L OLP represents the intra-day load outage probability, M is the total number of intra-day time series correlation scenario samples, is the m th number of power outage hours included in the intra-day time series correlation scenario sample; E ELO represents the intra-day load expected loss of electricity, is the m th intra-day time series correlation scenario sample's h th hour's load outage probability.

[0044] Step Five: Check the basic power supply guarantee plan according to the risk indicators; when the check fails, modify the basic power supply guarantee plan according to the risk indicators to obtain the modified power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan; when the check passes, obtain the final basic power supply guarantee plan: Draw the ICER curve of the intra-day load outage probability γ E and the ICER curve of the intra-day load expected loss of electricity γ L , and determine the risk threshold during the power grid supply guarantee period through the curve ε ILOLP and ε IEELO . If the basic power supply guarantee plan meets formula (19), then the plan passes the check.

[0045] (19) Specifically, increase the main grid load regulation capacity at a certain step size P R ( h ), and update the basic power supply guarantee plan accordingly. Scan the risk indicators corresponding to each plan to draw the ICER curve. In this embodiment, with 0.01 p.u as the initial increment and growth step size, 100 data points are calculated to form the ICER curve as shown in Figure 6 and Figure 7 .

[0046] The present invention takes the threshold of ICER as 0.5, determines the selection range of the risk threshold in Figure 6 and Figure 7 , and then obtains: ε IEELO= 8.017 MWh, ε ILOLP = 0.005.

[0047] If the basic power supply guarantee plan fails the verification, it is necessary to Figure 6 , Figure 7 make corrections according to: Select ε IEELO and ε ILOLP corresponding P R ( h ) increment value, update P R ( h ) to obtain the corrected power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan.

[0048] Embodiment 2 As Figure 8 shown, based on the same inventive concept as the above embodiment, the present invention also provides a power supply guarantee device based on load collaborative regulation, including: A collection module for obtaining the main grid power supply guarantee level and the main grid load regulation capacity; A decomposition module for generating the regional grid load regulation capacity according to the main grid power supply guarantee level and the main grid load regulation capacity; A formulation module for formulating a basic power supply guarantee plan according to the regional grid load regulation capacity; A construction module for constructing an intra-day time series correlation scenario, predicting the risk of the basic power supply guarantee plan, and obtaining a risk index; A verification module for verifying the basic power supply guarantee plan according to the risk index; when the verification fails, correcting the basic power supply guarantee plan according to the risk index to obtain the corrected power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan; when the verification passes, obtaining the final basic power supply guarantee plan.

[0049] Embodiment 3 As Figure 9 shown, the present invention also provides an electronic device 100 for implementing the power supply guarantee method based on load collaborative regulation; The electronic device 100 includes a memory 101, at least one processor 102, a computer program 103 stored in the memory 101 and executable on at least one processor 102, and at least one communication bus 104.

[0050] The memory 101 can be used to store the computer program 103. The processor 102 realizes the steps of the power supply guarantee method based on load collaborative regulation in Embodiment 1 by running or executing the computer program stored in the memory 101 and calling the data stored in the memory 101.

[0051] The memory 101 may mainly include a program storage area and a data storage area. Among them, the program storage area may store an operating system, application programs required for at least one function (such as a sound playback function, an image playback function, etc.); the data storage area may store data created according to the use of the electronic device 100 (such as audio data, etc.). In addition, the memory 101 may include non-volatile memory, such as a hard disk, a memory, a plug-in hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) card, a Flash Card, at least one magnetic disk storage device, a flash memory device, or other non-volatile solid-state storage devices.

[0052] At least one processor 102 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), and may also be other general-purpose processors, Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. The processor 102 may be a microprocessor or the processor 102 may also be any conventional processor, etc. The processor 102 is the control center of the electronic device 100 and connects various parts of the entire electronic device 100 through various interfaces and lines.

[0053] The memory 101 in the electronic device 100 stores multiple instructions to implement a power supply guarantee method based on load collaborative regulation. The processor 102 can execute the multiple instructions to implement: Obtain the power supply guarantee level of the main power grid and the load regulation capacity of the main power grid; Generate the load regulation capacity of the regional power grid according to the power supply guarantee level of the main power grid and the load regulation capacity of the main power grid; Formulate a basic power supply guarantee plan according to the load regulation capacity of the regional power grid; Construct an intraday time series correlation scenario, perform risk prediction on the basic power supply guarantee plan, and obtain risk indicators; Verify the basic power supply guarantee plan according to the risk indicators; when the verification fails, modify the basic power supply guarantee plan according to the risk indicators to obtain the revised power supply guarantee plan as the final basic power supply guarantee plan; when the verification passes, obtain the final basic power supply guarantee plan.

[0054] Embodiment 4 If the modules / units integrated in the electronic device 100 are implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, to implement all or part of the processes in the above embodiment methods of the present invention, it can also be completed by instructing relevant hardware through a computer program. The computer program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above various method embodiments can be implemented. Among them, the computer program includes computer program code, and the computer program code can be in the form of source code, object code, executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer-readable medium can include: any entity or device that can carry the computer program code, recording medium, USB flash drive, mobile hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer memory and read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory).

[0055] Those skilled in the art should understand that the embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Moreover, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that contain computer-usable program code.

[0056] The present invention is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram can be implemented by computer program instructions, and the combination of the processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram can also be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to the processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing devices to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing devices generate a device for implementing the functions specified in Figure 1 one process or multiple processes and / or blocks Figure 1 one block or multiple blocks.

[0057] These computer program instructions can also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to operate in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including an instruction means which implements the function specified in the flowchart(s) Figure 1 one or more flowcharts and / or block diagrams Figure 1 specified in one or more blocks or a plurality of blocks.

[0058] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, such that a series of operational steps are performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing steps for implementing the function specified in the flowchart(s) Figure 1 one or more flowcharts and / or block diagrams Figure 1 specified in one or more blocks or a plurality of blocks.

[0059] In the description of this specification, the descriptions with reference to the terms "one embodiment", "example", "specific example", etc. mean that the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described in connection with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the schematic representations of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described may be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner.

[0060] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit them. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: the specific implementation manners of the present invention can still be modified or equivalently replaced, and any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention shall be covered by the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for ensuring power supply based on load coordinated regulation, characterized in that: include: Obtain the supply guarantee level of the main power grid and the load control capacity of the main power grid; Generate regional power grid load control capacity based on the main power grid supply guarantee level and main power grid load control capacity; Formulate a basic plan for ensuring power supply based on the load control capacity of the regional power grid; Construct intraday time series correlation scenarios, conduct risk prediction on the basic power supply guarantee plan, and obtain risk indicators; Verify the basic plan for power supply security according to risk indicators; If the verification fails, the basic plan for securing electric power supply will be revised according to the risk indicators, and the revised plan for securing electric power supply will be used as the final basic plan for securing electric power supply; if the verification passes, the final basic plan for securing electric power supply will be obtained.

2. The method for ensuring power supply based on load coordinated regulation according to claim 1, characterized in that: The obtaining of the main power grid supply guarantee level and the main power grid load control capacity includes: Calculating power deficit P D ( h ), the calculation formula is as follows: In the above formula, h is the hour number, The output forecast value of the new energy unit, The available capacity of thermal power units, The available capacity of the hydropower unit, is the load power forecast value, For spare capacity; Annual peak load P The peak annua reference value is calculated according to the following formula P D ( h )Percentage value : according to The size of the main power grid is determined according to the preset level range. s , determine the load control capacity of the main grid according to the supply guarantee level of the main grid P R ( h ).

3. The method for ensuring power supply based on load coordinated regulation according to claim 2, characterized in that: The generating of the load regulation capacity of each regional power grid according to the supply guarantee level of the main power grid and the load regulation capacity of the main power grid includes: Based on the flexible weight allocation mechanism, the load control capacity of the main power grid is shared P R ( h ), forming a regional power grid i Control capacity P R,i ( h ), the calculation formula is as follows: In the above formula, φ ,i ( h ) is the regional power grid i The flexibility weight factor is given by h Regional power grid at this time i The weighted composition of different load types and similar loads of the main power grid is calculated as follows: In the above formula, N The total number of load types defined by the main network according to the load classification management requirements during the supply guarantee period. n is the serial number of the load type; P n ( h )and P i,n ( h ) are respectively h Main power grid and regional power grid at all times i No. n Power of class load; h The guaranteed supply level is s h , λ n ( s h ) is the first n The weight coefficient of the class load, and meets the following requirements: 。 4. The method for ensuring power supply based on load coordinated regulation according to claim 1, characterized in that: Formulate a basic plan for ensuring power supply based on the load control capacity of the regional power grid, including: Obtain the daily load and baseline load capacity after the dynamic electricity price guidance, calculate the price elastic capacity according to the daily load and baseline load capacity after the dynamic electricity price guidance, and use the price elastic capacity as the peak shaving capacity of the dynamic electricity price guidance strategy; Compare the regional load capacity and peak shaving capacity to determine the period when the peak shaving capacity is insufficient to cover the regional load regulation capacity; An optimization model is constructed for the time periods that are insufficient to cover the regional load regulation capacity, and an optimization strategy is determined; the optimization model includes an objective function for minimizing the sum of peak shifting power, peak avoidance power, and power restriction power, as well as corresponding constraints; The objective function is solved based on the optimization strategy and constraints to obtain the basic plan for power supply.

5. The method for ensuring power supply based on load coordinated regulation according to claim 4, characterized in that: The optimization model specifically includes: In the above formula, F load_manage is the objective function, , , are decision variables, representing peak shifting power, peak avoidance power and power restriction power respectively; , They are the allowable peak shifting capacity and the allowable peak avoidance capacity respectively; For regional power grid i exist h Peak shaving capacity at the time; γ s , γ a , γ r They are the peak shifting penalty coefficient, the peak avoidance penalty coefficient and the power restriction penalty coefficient respectively; By solving the optimization model, when the value of the objective function is minimized, a basic plan for ensuring power supply including peak shifting, peak avoidance and power restriction is obtained.

6. The method for ensuring power supply based on load coordinated regulation according to claim 1, characterized in that: Construct a time-series correlation scenario within a day, conduct risk prediction on the basic plan for power supply security, and obtain risk indicators: Construct a daily time series correlation scenario, obtain short time series random samples, and calculate short-term operation risk indicators. The risk indicators include the probability of load outage within the day and the expected loss of load within the day. The calculation formula is as follows: In the above formula, L OLP represents the probability of load outage within the day, M is the total number of samples of intraday time series correlation scenarios, For the m The number of power outage hours included in the time series correlation scenario sample within a day; E ELO It indicates the expected power loss of load during the day. It is m The first sample of the intraday time series correlation scenario h The probability of a load outage for one hour.

7. The method for ensuring power supply based on load coordinated regulation according to claim 6, characterized in that: Verify the basic plan for power supply security according to risk indicators: Draw the ICER curve of the intraday load outage probability and the expected load loss power within the day, and determine the risk threshold through the curve ε ILOLP , ε IEELO If the basic plan for power supply security satisfies the following formula, the basic plan for power supply security is output when the plan passes the verification: When the basic plan for power supply security fails to pass the verification, the load control capacity of the main power grid will be increased according to the ICER curve. P R ( h ) until the above formula is satisfied, and the revised power supply guarantee plan is obtained as the final basic power supply guarantee plan.

8. A power supply guarantee device based on load coordinated regulation, characterized in that: include: A collection module is used to obtain the supply guarantee level of the main power grid and the load control capacity of the main power grid; A decomposition module is used to generate the load control capacity of the regional power grid according to the supply guarantee level of the main power grid and the load control capacity of the main power grid; A formulation module, used to formulate a basic plan for ensuring power supply according to the load regulation capacity of the regional power grid; The construction module is used to construct the intraday time series correlation scenario, conduct risk prediction on the basic plan for power supply guarantee, and obtain risk indicators; Verification module, used to verify the basic plan for power supply security according to risk indicators; If the verification fails, the basic plan for securing electric power supply will be revised according to the risk indicators, and the revised plan for securing electric power supply will be used as the final basic plan for securing electric power supply; if the verification passes, the final basic plan for securing electric power supply will be obtained.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: It includes a processor and a memory, and the processor is used to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated regulation as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores at least one instruction, and when the at least one instruction is executed by the processor, it implements the power supply guarantee method based on load coordinated regulation as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

Images