Prediction method and device for level installed capacity of coal-fired power generating unit

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of coal-fired power generation, in particular to a coal-fired power generator unit level installed capacity prediction method and device. According to the method, the data commissioning year and the designed operation life of the current unit are obtained, the service life parameters of the unit are determined based on the commissioning year and the designed operation life, and the units which are out of service from the natural to the life in the current year are determined according to the service life parameters of the unit; and determining the remaining stock unit capacity of the current year, calculating the total electricity consumption of the current year, determining the coal-fired power generation installed capacity of the current year according to the total electricity consumption, and determining the installed capacity of the newly-added coal-fired power generation unit of the current year based on the remaining stock unit capacity and the coal-fired power generation installed capacity. Through the configuration mode, the installed capacity of the coal-fired power generation unit can be accurately calculated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of coal-fired power generation, and particularly to a method and device for predicting the installed capacity of a coal-fired power generation unit at the unit level. Background Art

[0002] In the global energy pattern, China presents a distinct energy structure feature of rich coal and scarce oil. To achieve a win-win situation in energy development and environmental protection, it is urgent to improve the efficiency of coal-fired power generation, promote the technological upgrading and environmental protection transformation of coal-fired units, and reduce pollutant emissions. In addition, in the future, coal-fired power generation enterprises need to accelerate the upgrade to intelligent and digital, realize equipment automation, intelligence, and remote control, and improve operation efficiency and safety.

[0003] In the related art, for the prediction of the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation units, methods such as traditional time series analysis and simple linear regression models are mostly relied on. These methods often only consider historical installed capacity data and ignore complex and key influencing factors such as dynamic adjustment, new energy power generation impact, and coal price fluctuations. In the related art, for the prediction of the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation units, methods such as traditional time series analysis and simple linear regression models are mostly relied on. These methods often only consider historical installed capacity data and ignore complex and key influencing factors such as dynamic adjustment, new energy power generation impact, and coal price fluctuations. For example, although time series analysis can capture the changing trend of historical data, in the face of sudden changes or drastic adjustments in the energy structure, its prediction results will show large deviations. The linear regression model assumes a linear relationship between variables and is difficult to accurately reflect the complex non-linear associations between various factors and the installed capacity in reality. For this reason, the inaccuracy of the prediction results of the existing technology is becoming increasingly prominent, resulting in unreasonable installed capacity configurations in coal-fired power generation planning based on such predictions in practical applications. There may be over-installation, causing resource waste and investment redundancy; or there may be insufficient installation, unable to meet the demand of the power market and affecting the stability of power supply.

[0004] Based on this, the present invention proposes a method and device for predicting the installed capacity of a coal-fired power generation unit at the unit level to solve the problem of how to accurately calculate the installed capacity of a coal-fired power generation unit. Summary of the Invention

[0005] To solve the problem of how to accurately calculate the installed capacity of a coal-fired power generation unit, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method and device for predicting the installed capacity of a coal-fired power generation unit at the unit level.

[0006] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting the installed capacity of a coal-fired power generation unit at the unit level, the method comprising:

[0007] Obtain the data commissioning year and the designed operating life of the current unit;

[0008] Based on the commissioning year and the designed operating life, determine the life parameters of the unit;

[0009] According to the life parameters of the unit, determine the units that reach the end of their natural life and retire in the current year;

[0010] Based on the units that reach the end of their natural life and retire in the current year, determine the remaining installed capacity of the units in the current year, and calculate the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the current year;

[0011] According to the total electricity consumption of the whole society, determine the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation in the current year;

[0012] Based on the remaining installed capacity of the units and the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation, determine the installed capacity of newly added coal-fired generating units in the current year.

[0013] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a device for predicting the installed capacity of coal-fired generating units, including:

[0014] An acquisition module, configured to acquire the commissioning year of the data of the current unit and the designed operating life;

[0015] A first data processing module, configured to determine the life parameters of the unit based on the commissioning year and the designed operating life;

[0016] A second data processing module, configured to determine the units that reach the end of their natural life and retire in the current year according to the life parameters of the unit;

[0017] A third data processing module, configured to determine the remaining installed capacity of the units in the current year based on the units that reach the end of their natural life and retire in the current year, and calculate the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the current year;

[0018] A fourth data processing module, configured to determine the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation in the current year according to the total electricity consumption of the whole society;

[0019] A fifth data processing module, configured to determine the installed capacity of newly added coal-fired generating units in the current year based on the remaining installed capacity of the units and the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation.

[0020] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, including a memory and a processor, where a computer program is stored in the memory, and when the processor executes the computer program, the method described in any embodiment of the present invention is implemented.

[0021] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed on a computer, the computer is made to execute the method described in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0022] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method and device for predicting installed capacity of coal-fired power generation units. First, two attribute data of "commissioning year" and "designed operating life" in the current unit data set are collected from the power data management system. Based on the obtained commissioning year and designed operating life data, a life parameter for characterizing the full life cycle state of the unit is determined. The parameter comprehensively reflects the time history of the unit since commissioning and the expected remaining operating time. According to the calculated unit life parameter, the units that have reached the natural life cycle in the current year and need to be retired are screened out from the unit group. After clarifying the list of units that have reached their natural life cycle and retired in the current year, the stock units can be re-counted and evaluated to determine the remaining stock unit capacity in the current year. And calculate the total social electricity consumption in the current year. Then, according to the total social electricity consumption, the coal-fired power generation installed capacity that is suitable for the current year's electricity demand is determined. Finally, the determined coal-fired power generation installed capacity in the current year is compared with the remaining stock unit capacity, and the difference between the two is the newly added coal-fired power generation installed capacity required to meet the electricity growth demand in the current year. Through the above configuration, the present invention can accurately and efficiently calculate the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation units in a complex and changeable electricity market environment, providing solid data support and technical guarantee for the scientific planning, stable operation and strategic decision-making of the power system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0023] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0024] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for predicting installed capacity of a coal-fired power generation unit according to an embodiment is shown;

[0025] Figure 2 is a hardware architecture diagram of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0026] Figure 3 A structural diagram of a coal-fired power generation unit-level installed capacity prediction device according to one embodiment is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0027] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Apparently, the described embodiments are only a part rather than all of the embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without creative efforts shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0028] Please refer to Figure 1 , the embodiments of the present invention provide a method for predicting the installed capacity of a coal-fired power generation unit, and the method includes:

[0029] Step 100: Obtain the data commissioning year and designed operation life of the current unit;

[0030] Step 102: Determine the life parameters of the unit based on the commissioning year and designed operation life;

[0031] Step 104: Determine the units that naturally reach the end of their service life in the current year according to the life parameters of the unit;

[0032] Step 106: Based on the units that naturally reach the end of their service life in the current year, determine the remaining stock unit capacity in the current year, and calculate the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the current year;

[0033] Step 108: Determine the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation in the current year according to the total electricity consumption of the whole society;

[0034] Step 110: Determine the installed capacity of newly added coal-fired power generation units in the current year based on the remaining stock unit capacity and the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation.

[0035] In this embodiment, first, two attribute data, namely "commissioning year" and "designed operating life", are collected from the power data management system in the current unit dataset. Based on the obtained commissioning year and designed operating life data, a life parameter is determined to characterize the full life cycle state of the unit. This parameter comprehensively reflects the time course experienced by the unit since it was put into operation and the expected remaining operating time. According to the calculated unit life parameter, units that reach the natural life cycle and need to be decommissioned in the current year are screened out from the unit group. After clarifying the list of units that reach the natural life and are decommissioned in the current year, the existing units can be re-counted and evaluated, and then the remaining existing unit capacity in the current year can be determined. And the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the current year is calculated. Then, according to the total electricity consumption of the whole society, the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation suitable for the current year's power demand is determined. Finally, the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation determined for the current year is compared and calculated with the remaining existing unit capacity, and the difference between the two is the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation units that need to be newly added to meet the power growth demand in the current year. Through the above configuration method, the present invention can accurately and efficiently calculate the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation units in a complex and changeable power market environment, providing solid data support and technical guarantee for the scientific planning, stable operation and strategic decision-making of the power system.

[0036] In an embodiment of the present invention, the life parameter of the unit is determined by the following formula:

[0037]

[0038] In the formula, θ Age,u is the life parameter of the unit, σ U is the designed life of the U-type unit, r u is the operating years of unit u, and y is the current year.

[0039] In this embodiment, if θ Age,u is less than or equal to zero, the unit has reached the end of its life and been decommissioned. The smaller θ Age,u is, the more serious the unit aging is if transformation and upgrading are not considered.

[0040] In an embodiment of the present invention, the total electricity consumption of the whole society is determined by the following formula:

[0041]

[0042] In the formula, ε y is the total electricity consumption of the whole society, w i is the weight coefficient, τ y is the predicted value of the total electricity consumption of the first whole society, t is the year, ε t is the total electricity consumption of the whole society and GDP in the t-th year t and the data of the per capita gross domestic product in the t-th year. is the total electricity consumption of the whole society in 20 years, is the logarithmic mean of the historical data of GDP, ε y-1,1 is the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the previous year, GDP y-1 is the GDP in the previous year, r GDP,y is the GDP growth rate in the current year, α is the smoothing coefficient, ε y-1 is the actual electricity consumption of the whole society in the previous year, is the predicted value of the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the relevant year, ε y,2 is the predicted value of the second total electricity consumption of the whole society, ε y,3 is the predicted value of the third total electricity consumption of the whole society, I y,j is the electricity consumption per unit GDP of the jth industry in the yth year, GDP y,j is the GDP of the jth industry in the yth year.

[0043] In an embodiment of the present invention, the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation in the current year is determined by the following formula:

[0044]

[0045] In the formula, μ y-1 is the actual power generation ratio of coal-fired power generation in the (y - 1)th year, is the predicted value of coal-fired power generation in the yth year obtained by the literature collection method, H y is the predicted value of the coal-fired power generation hours, C U,y is the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation in the current year.

[0046] In this embodiment, the present invention calculates the installed scale C of coal-fired power generation in the yth year according to the law of conservation of electricity and the predicted value of the total electricity consumption of the whole society ε y . First, combining the historical data of key parameters such as the power generation, power generation hours, and installed capacity of the main power sources (coal power, gas power, biomass power generation, conventional hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, photovoltaic power generation, others), analyze the historical change trend of the coal-fired power generation ratio μ y . Since the overall coal-fired power generation ratio shows a stable downward trend, the exponential smoothing method is considered to predict the future coal-fired power generation ratio. y Since the overall coal-fired power generation ratio shows a stable downward trend, the exponential smoothing method is considered to predict the future coal-fired power generation ratio.

[0047] In an embodiment of the present invention, after determining the installed capacity of the newly added coal-fired generating units in the current year based on the remaining stock unit capacity and the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation, it further includes:

[0048] When the installed capacity of the newly added coal-fired generating units in the current year is less than zero, calculate the comprehensive index of the remaining stock units;

[0049] Determine the retirement list of the remaining stock units according to the comprehensive index of the remaining stock units;

[0050] Determine the phased-out units according to the retirement list of the remaining inventory units.

[0051] In this embodiment, when the newly added installed capacity of coal-fired power generation units calculated for the current year is negative, it clearly indicates that the existing configuration scale of coal-fired power generation units has significantly exceeded the actual power demand. In this severe situation, to optimize the allocation of coal-fired power generation resources and improve the overall efficiency of the power system, it is urgent to conduct a comprehensive and in-depth assessment of the remaining inventory units. At the specific operational level, a series of key comprehensive indicators need to be systematically calculated for the remaining inventory units. These indicators widely cover the unit operation efficiency, which directly reflects the conversion ability of the unit to convert primary energy into electric energy; the energy consumption level, which evaluates the unit energy consumption during the power generation process, and high-energy-consuming units need to be phased out first; the pollutant emission status, which is related to environmental protection and sustainable development, and high-pollution units are given priority to be phased out; the maintenance cost, which considers the economic input required for the long-term stable operation of the unit, including operation and maintenance costs, etc.; and the remaining service life, which judges the subsequent service potential of the unit. By comprehensively considering these multi-dimensional indicators, the overall performance of each unit can be comprehensively and accurately outlined. After the fine calculation of the comprehensive indicators, all the remaining inventory units are sorted in an orderly manner from high to low according to the quality of the comprehensive indicators. Based on the sorting results, a retirement priority list of the remaining inventory units is drawn up. This list clearly and explicitly defines the order of each unit in the retirement consideration according to the differences in unit energy efficiency, pollution emissions, operation economy, and remaining life, providing an intuitive and important basis for subsequent decision-making. Finally, in combination with the operation requirements of the power system operation, the retirement list of the remaining inventory units is further analyzed to accurately screen and determine the units to be phased out. Through this scientific, systematic and interlocking process, the number of coal-fired power generation units can be effectively regulated to ensure that the scale of coal-fired power generation units is always dynamically matched with the actual power demand. This not only helps to improve the overall operation efficiency of the power system, optimize resource allocation, reduce energy loss and environmental pollution, but also promotes the development of the coal-fired power industry towards low-carbon, high-efficiency and clean directions, laying a foundation for the green and sustainable transformation of the power industry.

[0052] In an embodiment of the present invention, the comprehensive indicator of the remaining inventory unit is determined by the following formula:

[0053]

[0054]

[0055] Where α u is the comprehensive indicator, w α,f is the weight of each factor, α u,f is the score of each factor index, E CO2,u is the carbon emission of the unit, Coal uis the annual standard coal consumption of the unit, H fuel is the lowest calorific value of the fuel, γ fuel is the carbon content per unit calorific value is the carbon oxidation rate, G u is the annual power generation of the unit, E AP,u is the annual average emission mass of particulate matter at the total discharge port of the unit, τ CO2,max and τ CO2,min are respectively the maximum and minimum carbon emissions per kWh in the unit list, τ AP,max and τ AP,min are respectively the maximum and minimum emissions of air pollutants in the unit list, α CO2,u and α AP,u are respectively the scores of unit u in terms of carbon dioxide emissions and air pollutant emissions. k is the type of technical factor, ω α2,k is the proportion of each technical factor in the technical score, α u2,k is the score of each technical factor is the minimum value of technical loss in the unit list is the maximum value of technical loss in the unit list is to quantify the economic loss caused by the early shutdown of coal-fired power units.

[0056] In this embodiment, the unit list is shown in Table 1:

[0057] Table 1

[0058]

[0059]

[0060] In an embodiment of the present invention, the economic loss caused by the early shutdown of coal-fired power units is determined by the following formula:

[0061]

[0062] In the formula, is the bank interest loss is the un-recovered initial investment is the investment loss caused by forced retirement, r u is the number of years that unit u has been in operation, σ U is the designed operating life of this type of unit U is the investment loss caused by forced retirement is the un-recovered initial investment is the bank interest loss, y IBL is the loan term, y H is the initial investment planned payback period of the unit.

[0063] In this embodiment, the bank interest loss Investment in coal-fired power projects usually involves bank loans. Assume the financing ratio is 8:2, that is, 80% of the investment comes from bank loans and 20% of the investment is self-funded by the power plant. The loan term is set to y IBL years (usually 15 years). Therefore, if the unit is retired prematurely, it may cause the bank to fail to obtain all the interest income as scheduled, resulting in financial losses. The unrecovered initial investment Assume the initial investment payback period for each unit is y H years (usually 20 years), indicating that the unit gradually recovers the initial investment through power generation income within 20 years after being put into operation. If the unit is retired prematurely, the part that has not been fully paid back is the economic loss. Investment losses caused by forced retirement Forced retirement means that the power plant fails to complete the power generation plan according to the design life, resulting in the investor (power plant) failing to achieve the expected income as originally planned. This part of the loss usually reflects that due to not reaching the original power generation years or power generation volume, the investor fails to fully realize its investment return.

[0064] In this embodiment, if the new installed capacity demand is less than the capacity of the existing units, a retirement assessment is carried out on the remaining existing units. Considering factors such as the remaining operating years of the units, combustion methods, installed capacity, and asset stranding costs after retirement, the units that need to be forced to retire are screened out and included in the list of policy-driven retired units. Finally, combining the remaining existing units, retired units, and new units, an annual coal-fired power installed capacity structure is constructed.

[0065] As Figure 2 、 Figure 3 shown, the embodiment of the present invention provides a device for predicting the installed capacity of coal-fired generating units. The device embodiment can be implemented by software, or by hardware or a combination of software and hardware. From the hardware level, as Figure 2 shown, it is a hardware architecture diagram of an electronic device where the device for predicting the installed capacity of coal-fired generating units provided by the embodiment of the present invention is located. In addition to Figure 2 the processor, memory, network interface, and non-volatile memory shown, the electronic device where the device is located in the embodiment usually may also include other hardware, such as a forwarding chip responsible for processing packets, etc. Taking software implementation as an example, as Figure 3 shown, as a logically meaningful device, it is formed by the CPU of its corresponding electronic device reading the computer program in the non-volatile memory into the memory and running.

[0066] As Figure 3 shown, a device for predicting the installed capacity of coal-fired generating units provided in this embodiment, the device includes:

[0067] An acquisition module 300, configured to acquire the data commissioning year and the designed operation life of the current unit;

[0068] A first data processing module 302, configured to determine the life parameter of the unit based on the commissioning year and the designed operation life;

[0069] A second data processing module 304, configured to determine the units that naturally reach the end of their service life in the current year according to the life parameter of the unit;

[0070] A third data processing module 306, configured to determine the remaining installed capacity of the units in the current year based on the units that naturally reach the end of their service life in the current year, and calculate the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the current year;

[0071] A fourth data processing module 308, configured to determine the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation in the current year according to the total electricity consumption of the whole society;

[0072] A fifth data processing module 310, configured to determine the installed capacity of newly added coal-fired generating units in the current year based on the remaining installed capacity of the units and the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation.

[0073] In an embodiment of the present invention, the life parameter of the unit is determined by the following formula:

[0074]

[0075] In the formula, θ Age,u is the life parameter of the unit, σ U is the designed life of the U-type unit, r u is the already-operated years of the unit u, and y is the current year.

[0076] In an embodiment of the present invention, the total electricity consumption of the whole society is determined by the following formula:

[0077]

[0078] In the formula, ε y is the total electricity consumption of the whole society, w i is the weight coefficient, τ y is the predicted value of the first total electricity consumption of the whole society, t is the year, ε t is the data of the total electricity consumption of the whole society and GDP in the t-th year t and the per capita gross domestic product data in the t-th year, is the total electricity consumption of the whole society in 20 years, is the logarithmic mean of the historical GDP data, ε y-1,1 is the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the previous year, GDP y-1 is the GDP in the previous year, r GDP,yis the GDP growth rate of the current year, α is the smoothing coefficient, and ε y-1 is the actual electricity consumption of the whole society in the previous year, is the predicted value of the electricity consumption of the whole society in the relevant year, and ε y,2 is the predicted value of the electricity consumption of the second whole society, and ε y,3 is the predicted value of the electricity consumption of the third whole society, and I y,j is the electricity consumption per unit of GDP of the jth industry in the yth year, and GDP y,j is the GDP of the jth industry in the yth year.

[0079] In an embodiment of the present invention, the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation in the current year is determined by the following formula:

[0080]

[0081] In the formula, μ y-1 is the actual power generation ratio of coal-fired power generation in the (y - 1)th year, is the predicted value of coal-fired power generation in the yth year obtained by the literature collection method, and H y is the predicted value of coal-fired power generation hours, and C U,y is the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation in the current year.

[0082] In an embodiment of the present invention, after determining the installed capacity of the newly added coal-fired generating units in the current year based on the remaining stock unit capacity and the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation, it further includes:

[0083] When the installed capacity of the newly added coal-fired generating units in the current year is less than zero, calculate the comprehensive index of the remaining stock units;

[0084] Determine the retirement list of the remaining stock units according to the comprehensive index of the remaining stock units;

[0085] Determine the phased-out units according to the retirement list of the remaining stock units.

[0086] In an embodiment of the present invention, the comprehensive index of the remaining stock units is determined by the following formula:

[0087]

[0088]

[0089] In the formula, α u is the comprehensive index, w α,f is the weight of each factor, α u,f is the score of each factor index, E CO2,u is the carbon emission of the unit, Coal u is the annual standard coal consumption of the unit, and H fuelis the lowest calorific value of the fuel, γ fuel is the carbon content per unit calorific value, is the carbon oxidation rate, G u is the annual power generation of the unit, E AP,u is the annual average emission mass of particulate matter at the total discharge port of the unit, τ CO2,max and τ CO2,min are respectively the maximum and minimum carbon emissions per kWh in the unit list, τ AP,max and τ AP,min are respectively the maximum and minimum emissions of air pollutants in the unit list, α CO2,u and α AP,u are respectively the scores of unit u in terms of carbon dioxide emissions and air pollutant emissions. k is the type of technical factor, ω α2,k is the proportion of each technical factor in the technical score, α u2,k is the score of each technical factor, is the minimum value of technical loss in the unit list, is the maximum value of technical loss in the unit list, is to quantify the economic loss caused by the early shutdown of coal-fired power units.

[0090] In an embodiment of the present invention, the economic loss caused by the early shutdown of the coal-fired power unit is determined by the following formula:

[0091]

[0092] In the formula, is the bank interest loss, is the unrecovered initial investment, is the investment loss caused by forced retirement, r u is the number of years that unit u has been in operation, σ U is the designed operating life of this type of unit U, is the investment loss caused by forced retirement, is the unrecovered initial investment, is the bank interest loss, y IBL is the loan term, y H is the initial investment planned payback period of the unit.

[0093] It can be understood that the structure schematically shown in the embodiments of the present invention does not constitute a specific limitation on a device for predicting and measuring the installed capacity of a coal-fired power generation unit. In other embodiments of the present invention, a device for predicting and measuring the installed capacity of a coal-fired power generation unit may include more or fewer components than shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or split certain components, or have different component arrangements. The components shown in the figure can be implemented in hardware, software, or a combination of software and hardware.

[0094] For the information interaction, execution process, etc. between the modules in the above device, since they are based on the same concept as the method embodiments of the present invention, the specific content can be referred to the description in the method embodiments of the present invention and will not be elaborated here.

[0095] An embodiment of the present invention also provides an electronic device, including a memory and a processor. A computer program is stored in the memory. When the processor executes the computer program, a coal-fired power generation unit-level installed capacity prediction method in any embodiment of the present invention is implemented.

[0096] An embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium. A computer program is stored on the computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the processor is enabled to execute a coal-fired power generation unit-level installed capacity prediction method in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0097] Specifically, a system or device equipped with a storage medium can be provided. Software program codes for implementing the functions in any of the above embodiments are stored on the storage medium, and the computer (or CPU or MPU) of the system or device is enabled to read and execute the program codes stored on the storage medium.

[0098] In this case, the program codes read from the storage medium itself can implement the functions in any one of the above embodiments. Therefore, the program codes and the storage medium storing the program codes constitute a part of the present invention.

[0099] Embodiments of the storage medium for providing program codes include floppy disks, hard disks, magneto-optical disks, optical disks (such as CD-ROM, CD-R, CD-RW, DVD-ROM, DVD-RAM, DVD-RW, DVD+RW), magnetic tapes, non-volatile memory cards, and ROMs. Optionally, the program codes can be downloaded from a server computer via a communication network.

[0100] In addition, it should be clear that not only can the functions in any one of the above embodiments be implemented by executing the program codes read by the computer, but also by the operating system operating on the computer based on the instructions of the program codes to complete part or all of the actual operations.

[0101] In addition, it can be understood that the program codes read from the storage medium are written into the memory provided in the expansion board inserted into the computer or the memory provided in the expansion module connected to the computer, and then based on the instructions of the program codes, the CPUs, etc. installed on the expansion board or expansion module are enabled to execute part and all of the actual operations, thereby implementing the functions in any one of the above embodiments.

[0102] It should be noted that in this text, relational terms such as first and second are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the term "comprising", "including" or any other variation thereof is intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device comprising a series of elements not only includes those elements, but also includes other elements not expressly listed, or elements inherent to such process, method, article or device.

[0103] Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand that all or part of the steps for implementing the above method embodiments can be completed by hardware related to program instructions. The foregoing program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. When the program is executed, it performs the steps including the above method embodiments; and the foregoing storage medium includes various media that can store program codes, such as ROM, RAM, magnetic disks or optical discs.

[0104] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and are not intended to limit them. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or perform equivalent replacements for some of the technical features; and these modifications or replacements do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting installed capacity of coal-fired power generation units, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtain the data of the current unit’s commissioning year and designed operating life; Determining life parameters of the unit based on the commissioning year and the designed operating life; According to the life parameters of the units, determine the units that will be retired naturally in the current year; Based on the units that have been retired naturally in the current year, determine the remaining stock unit capacity in the current year and calculate the total social electricity consumption in the current year; Determine the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation in the current year based on the total electricity consumption of the society; Based on the remaining stock capacity and coal-fired power generation installed capacity, determine the installed capacity of new coal-fired power generation units in the current year.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The life parameters of the unit are determined by the following formula: In the formula, θ Age，u is the life parameter of the unit, σ U is the design life of the U-type unit, r u is the operating years of unit u, and y is the current year.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The total social electricity consumption is determined by the following formula: In the formula, ε y is the total social electricity consumption, w i is the weight coefficient, τ y is the predicted value of the first social electricity consumption, t is the year, ε t is the total electricity consumption and GDP in year t t The data of GDP per capita in year t, The total electricity consumption of the society in 20 years, is the logarithmic mean of GDP historical data, ε y-1,1 is the total electricity consumption of the society in the previous year, GDP y-1 is the GDP of the previous year, r GDP,y is the GDP growth rate of the current year, α is the smoothing coefficient, ε y-1 is the actual electricity consumption of the whole society in the previous year, is the predicted value of total social electricity consumption in the relevant year, ε y,2 is the predicted value of the second social electricity consumption, ε y,3 is the predicted value of the third social electricity consumption, I y,j is the electricity consumption per unit GDP of the jth industry in the yth year, GDP y,j is the GDP of the jth industry in the yth year.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The coal-fired power generation capacity for the current year is determined by the following formula: In the formula, μ y-1 is the actual proportion of coal-fired power generation in year y-1, The predicted value of coal-fired power generation in year y is obtained by literature collection method, H y is the predicted value of coal-fired power generation hours, C U,y is the installed coal-fired power generation capacity for the current year stated.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that After determining the installed capacity of new coal-fired generating units in the current year based on the remaining stock unit capacity and coal-fired power generation installed capacity, it also includes: When the installed capacity of the newly added coal-fired generating units in the current year is less than zero, the comprehensive index of the remaining stock units is calculated; Determine a retirement list of the remaining stock units according to the comprehensive indicators of the remaining stock units; Determine the units to be eliminated based on the retirement list of the remaining stock units.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The comprehensive index of the remaining stock units is determined by the following formula: In the formula, α u is a comprehensive indicator, w α,f is the weight of each factor, α u,f is the index score of each factor, E CO2,u is the carbon emissions of the unit, Coal u is the annual standard coal consumption of the unit, H fuel is the minimum calorific value of the fuel, γ fuel is the carbon content per unit calorific value, is the carbon oxidation rate, G u is the annual power generation of the unit, E AP,u is the average annual emission mass of particulate matter at the total outlet of the unit, τ CO2,max , τ CO2,min are the maximum and minimum values ​​of carbon emissions per kWh in the unit list, τ AP,max , τ AP,min are the maximum and minimum values ​​of air pollutant emissions in the unit list, α CO2,u , α AP,u are the scores of unit u in terms of carbon dioxide emissions and air pollutant emissions, k is the type of technical factor, ω α2,k is the proportion of each technical factor in the technical score, α u2,k To score each technical factor, is the minimum value of technical loss in the unit list, is the maximum value of technical loss in the unit list, To quantify the economic losses caused by premature shutdown of coal-fired power units.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The economic losses caused by premature shutdown of coal-fired power units are determined by the following formula: In the formula, For bank interest loss, is the initial investment that has not been recovered, is the investment loss caused by forced retirement, r u is the operating years of unit u, σ U is the design operating life of this type of unit U, Investment losses caused by forced retirement, is the initial investment that has not been recovered, is the bank interest loss, y IBL is the loan term, y H Plan the payback period for the initial investment of the unit.

8. A coal-fired power generation unit-level installed capacity prediction device, characterized in that: include: An acquisition module is used to obtain the data of the current unit, the year of commissioning and the designed operating life; A first data processing module is used to determine the life parameters of the unit based on the commissioning year and the designed operating life; The second data processing module is used to determine the units that will be retired naturally in the current year according to the life parameters of the units; The third data processing module is used to determine the remaining stock unit capacity of the current year based on the units that have been retired due to natural service life in the current year, and calculate the total social electricity consumption in the current year; A fourth data processing module is used to determine the coal-fired power generation installed capacity in the current year according to the total social electricity consumption; The fifth data processing module is used to determine the installed capacity of new coal-fired power generation units in the current year based on the remaining stock unit capacity and coal-fired power generation installed capacity.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: The method comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and when the processor executes the computer program, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: A computer program is stored thereon, and when the computer program is executed in a computer, the computer is caused to execute the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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