Geological disaster susceptibility coupling method based on weighting method

Abstract

The invention discloses a geological disaster susceptibility coupling method based on a weighting method. The method comprises the following steps: S1, collecting geological disaster and geological environment factor data of all evaluation units in a research area; s2, classifying geological disasters into N types; s3, aiming at different geological disaster types, selecting I geological environment factors closely related to the development of the different geological disaster types as influence factors, and dividing each influence factor into J grades; s4, calculating the susceptibility value Qny of each type of geological disaster in each evaluation unit; s5, calculating the weight Wny of each type of geological disaster in different evaluation units; s6, calculating a comprehensive susceptibility value Vy of the research area; and S7, dividing the research area into different susceptibility grades. According to the method, the configuration of geological disaster prevention and control resources can be optimized, a comprehensive and accurate risk assessment basis can be provided for disaster prevention and control, and the scientificity and effectiveness of disaster prevention and control are remarkably improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of geological disaster risk assessment, and in particular to a coupling method for geological disaster susceptibility based on a weighting method. Background Art

[0002] The evaluation of geological disaster susceptibility is an important basic work for geological disaster prevention and risk management. Its purpose is to evaluate the possibility of a specific geological disaster occurring in a certain area through comprehensive analysis of multiple factors such as geological environment, topography, climate conditions, and human activities. However, in practical applications, the same area often faces the threats of multiple geological disasters at the same time, and there may be interactions or common inducing factors between these disasters. Therefore, the susceptibility evaluation of a single disaster is difficult to comprehensively reflect the regional geological disaster risk.

[0003] Traditional methods for merging susceptibility maps usually adopt the maximum value method, that is, selecting the highest susceptibility value among multiple disasters as the merging result. Although this method is simple and easy to implement, it has obvious defects: First, it ignores the differences in the occurrence probabilities and potential hazard degrees of different geological disasters, which may lead to unreasonable allocation of prevention and control resources; Second, it cannot reflect the interactions and superposition effects between multiple disasters, which may lead to underestimation or omission of risks. In addition, with the progress of geological disaster monitoring technology and the popularization of big data analysis methods, the amount of data and complexity of geological disaster susceptibility evaluation have increased significantly, and traditional methods have been difficult to meet the requirements of refined and dynamic risk assessment.

[0004] Therefore, it is necessary to design a coupling method for geological disaster susceptibility based on a weighting method to overcome the above problems. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In order to avoid the above problems, a coupling method for geological disaster susceptibility based on a weighting method is provided. Through steps such as data collection, disaster classification, factor selection, susceptibility calculation, weight calculation, comprehensive susceptibility calculation, and susceptibility zoning, the scientific merging of geological disaster susceptibility maps for multiple disaster types is realized; it can not only optimize the allocation of geological disaster prevention and control resources, but also provide a comprehensive and accurate risk assessment basis for disaster prevention and control, significantly improving the scientificity and effectiveness of disaster prevention and control.

[0006] A coupling method for geological disaster susceptibility based on a weighting method provided by the present invention includes the following steps:

[0007] S1. Collect data on geological disasters and geological environment factors of all evaluation units in the study area;

[0008] S2. Classify geological disasters into N categories according to the causes, morphological characteristics, and actual distribution of the disasters;

[0009] S3. For different types of geological disasters, select one environmental factor closely related to their development as the influencing factor, and divide each influencing factor into J levels according to the value or type of each influencing factor.

[0010] S4. Use an appropriate mathematical model or machine learning method to calculate the susceptibility value Q of each type of geological disaster ny ;

[0011] S5. According to the spatial distribution of each type of geological disaster, calculate the weight W of each type of geological disaster in different evaluation units ny ;

[0012] S6. Based on the susceptibility value and weight of each type of geological disaster, calculate the comprehensive susceptibility value V of the study area y ;

[0013] S7. According to the comprehensive susceptibility value, use the natural breakpoint method to divide the study area into different susceptibility levels.

[0014] The evaluation unit is the basis for evaluating susceptibility. The influencing factors are distributed throughout the study area, and each evaluation unit in the entire study area will have values of multiple influencing factors. For example, for the first evaluation unit, the slope is 45°, the elevation is 555 m, and the lithology is sandstone, etc. According to the distribution of landslides, slope, elevation, and lithology, then for the slope in this evaluation unit in the range of 40 - 50°, there will be an information value for landslides. Similarly, there will be an information value for elevation and sandstone for landslides. The sum of these three information values is the information value of the first evaluation unit for landslides, that is, the susceptibility value. By calculating collapses and debris flows in this way in turn, the susceptibility values of multiple disaster types of the first evaluation unit can be calculated, and then coupled according to the formula to obtain the final result.

[0015] Preferably, in step S1, the geological disaster data includes the distribution location, occurrence time, scale, and hazard degree, the geological environment factor data includes topography, geological structure, climate conditions, hydrological characteristics, and human activities, and the study area is divided into Y evaluation units.

[0016] Preferably, in step S4, the calculation formula for the susceptibility value is as follows:

[0017]

[0018] Q ny = ∑X nyij ,

[0019] In the formula, i represents the i-th influencing factor, where i ranges from 1 to I; j represents the j-th level of the i-th influencing factor, where j ranges from 1 to J; y represents the y-th evaluation unit, where y ranges from 1 to Y; X nyijDenote the information quantity value of the $y$-th evaluation unit for the $n$-th type of geological disaster under the $j$-th level of the $i$-th influencing factor; $H$ n Denote the total area of the $n$-th type of geological disaster in the study area, where $n$ ranges from 1 to $N$; $H$ nij Denote the area of the $n$-th type of geological disaster in the area of the $j$-th level of the $i$-th influencing factor within the study area; when there is no geological disaster, assign $H$ nij a value of 0.001; $A$ denotes the total area of the study area; $A$ ij Denote the area of the $j$-th level of the $i$-th influencing factor within the study area; $Q$ ny Denote the information quantity value, i.e., the susceptibility value, of the $n$-th type of geological disaster in the $y$-th evaluation unit when there are $I$ influencing factors each divided into $J$ levels. Calculate the susceptibility values of the $N$ types of geological disasters in the $Y$ evaluation units within the study area according to this method.

[0020] The information quantity model is a susceptibility evaluation model based on information theory. During the occurrence process of geological disasters, the magnitude of the information quantity value represents the possibility of the occurrence of geological disasters. Add up the information quantity values of each factor to obtain the total information quantity value, i.e., the disaster susceptibility index. Therefore, the information quantity model is adopted here to quantify the influencing factors and calculate the susceptibility values of each geological disaster.

[0021] Preferably, step S5 specifically includes: According to the spatial location of the $n$-th type of geological disaster in the study area, use the kernel density calculation tool of arcgis software to calculate the density $\rho$ of the $n$-th type of geological disaster in the $y$-th evaluation unit ny ; Calculate the hazard degree $H$ of the $n$-th type of geological disaster in the $y$-th evaluation unit based on the economic loss and casualty data ny ; Finally, determine the final weight $W$ of the $n$-th type of geological disaster in the $y$-th evaluation unit ny , and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0022]

[0023] In the formula, $\rho$ 1y , $\rho$ 2y and $\rho$ Ny respectively represent the kernel densities of the 1st, 2nd, and $N$-th types of geological disasters in the $y$-th evaluation unit; $H$ 1y , $H$ 2y and $H$ Ny respectively represent the hazard degrees of the 1st, 2nd, and $N$-th types of geological disasters in the $y$-th evaluation unit.

[0024] Preferably, in step S6, the calculation formula for the comprehensive susceptibility value $V$ y of the $y$-th evaluation unit is:

[0025] $V$ y = $Q$ 1y $W$​​1y +Q 2y W 2y +…V Ny W Ny ,

[0026] In the formula, Q 1y 、Q 2y 、Q Ny are the susceptibility values of the first type, the second type and the Nth type of geological disasters in the yth evaluation unit respectively; W 1y 、W 2y 、W ny are the weights of the first type, the second type and the Nth type of geological disasters in the yth evaluation unit respectively; By using this method, the comprehensive susceptibility values of a total of Y evaluation units in the entire study area can be calculated.

[0027] Preferably, in step S7, the susceptibility levels include extremely low susceptibility area, low susceptibility area, medium susceptibility area, high susceptibility area and extremely high susceptibility area.

[0028] Preferably, in step S7, when 0 ≤ V y <0.2, it is an extremely low susceptibility area; when 0.2 ≤ V y <0.4, it is a low susceptibility area; when 0.4 ≤ V y <0.6, it is a medium susceptibility area; when 0.6 ≤ V y <0.8, it is a high susceptibility area; when 0.8 ≤ V y ≤ 1, it is an extremely high susceptibility area.

[0029] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: Through steps such as data collection, disaster classification, factor selection, susceptibility calculation, weight calculation, comprehensive susceptibility calculation and susceptibility zoning, the present invention realizes the scientific combination of multi-hazard geological disaster susceptibility maps; and has the following remarkable advantages:

[0030] 1. Scientificity: By introducing a weight distribution mechanism, the occurrence probability and potential hazard degree of different geological disasters are fully considered, making the combination result more scientific and reasonable;

[0031] 2. Comprehensiveness: It can process the susceptibility data of multiple geological disasters at the same time, reflect the interaction and superposition effect between disasters, and provide a more comprehensive risk assessment result;

[0032] 3. Flexibility: The weight distribution can be adjusted according to the disaster characteristics and prevention and control requirements of specific regions, and is applicable to different geological environments and disaster types;

[0033] 4. Efficiency: The weighted method is used to calculate the susceptibility value, and the calculation process is simple and efficient, which is applicable to large-scale data processing and dynamic update;

[0034] 5. Practicality: The generated comprehensive susceptibility map can be directly used in fields such as geological disaster prevention and control planning, land use planning, and emergency management, providing a reliable basis for decision-makers. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0035] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of a geological disaster susceptibility coupling method based on a weighting method according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0036] In order to make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions of the present invention will be introduced below in conjunction with the embodiments and the drawings.

[0037] As Figure 1 shown, a geological disaster susceptibility coupling method based on a weighting method provided in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0038] S1. Collect data on geological disasters and geological environment factors for all evaluation units within the study area

[0039] Data collection is the basis for geological disaster susceptibility evaluation, aiming to comprehensively obtain regional geological disasters and their related environmental information. Specifically, it includes the distribution location, occurrence time, scale, and hazard degree (such as economic losses and casualties) of geological disasters, as well as data on geological environment factors such as topography and geomorphology (slope, aspect, elevation), geological structure (fault distribution, lithology), climate conditions (rainfall, temperature), hydrological characteristics (river distribution, groundwater level), and human activities (land use, engineering construction). Data sources include field surveys, remote sensing image interpretation, geographic information system (GIS) databases, and meteorological station records, etc.

[0040] S2. Classify geological disasters into N categories according to the causes, morphological characteristics, and actual distribution of the disasters

[0041] According to the causes, morphological characteristics, and actual distribution of the disasters, geological disasters are classified into types such as landslides, debris flows, collapses, ground collapses, and ground fissures. A landslide is a geological phenomenon in which slope rock and soil masses displace along the sliding surface under the action of gravity; a debris flow is a flowing body containing a large amount of sediment and stones triggered by heavy rain or melting snow and ice; a collapse is a phenomenon in which rock and soil masses on a steep slope suddenly break away from the parent body and collapse under the action of gravity; a ground collapse is the ground settlement or collapse caused by underground karst caves, goafs, or overexploitation of groundwater; a ground fissure is a cracking phenomenon of surface rock and soil masses caused by tectonic activities or human activities. After classification, susceptibility evaluations are carried out for each disaster type respectively.

[0042] S3. For different geological disaster types, select I environmental factors closely related to their development as influencing factors, and divide each influencing factor into J levels according to the value size or type of each influencing factor

[0043] For different types of disasters, select the geological environment factors that are closely related to their development. For example, for landslides, factors such as slope, aspect, lithology, and vegetation coverage can be selected; for debris flows, factors such as gully density, loose material reserves, and terrain undulation can be selected; for collapses, factors such as slope, rock mass structure, weathering degree, and seismic activity can be selected; for ground subsidence, factors such as groundwater level change, karst development degree, and goaf distribution can be selected; for ground fissures, factors such as tectonic activity intensity, groundwater extraction volume, and formation lithology can be selected. Key factors are screened through correlation analysis or expert experience to ensure the scientificity and accuracy of the evaluation.

[0044] S4. Use an appropriate mathematical model or machine learning method to calculate the susceptibility value Q of each type of geological disaster ny

[0045] Use an appropriate mathematical model or machine learning method to calculate the susceptibility value of each type of geological disaster. Common methods include statistical models (such as the information value method, logistic regression model), machine learning models (such as random forest, support vector machine, neural network), and physical models (stability analysis models based on mechanical principles). Through model calculation, a susceptibility map of each type of geological disaster is generated, intuitively reflecting the spatial distribution probability of disaster occurrence, providing basic data for subsequent comprehensive evaluation.

[0046] The information value method has the advantages of objectivity and quantification, and can provide scientific and accurate decision-making support for the prevention and control of geological disasters. The information value ranges from (-∞ to +∞). When the information value > 0, the larger the value, the more conducive to the occurrence of geological disasters. The specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0047]

[0048] Q ny = ∑X nyij ,

[0049] In the formula, i represents the i-th influencing factor, where i ranges from 1 to I; j represents the j-th level of the i-th influencing factor, where j ranges from 1 to J; y represents the y-th evaluation unit, where y ranges from 1 to Y; X nyij represents the information value of the y-th evaluation unit for the n-th type of geological disaster under the j-th level of the i-th influencing factor; H n represents the total area of the n-th type of geological disaster in the study area, where n ranges from 1 to N; H nij represents the area of the n-th type of geological disaster in the study area within the area of the j-th level of the i-th influencing factor; when there is no geological disaster, H nij is assigned a value of 0.001; A represents the total area of the study area; A ij represents the area of the j-th level of the i-th influencing factor in the study area; Qny It represents the information value, i.e., the susceptibility value, of the nth type of geological disaster in the yth evaluation unit when there are I influencing factors and each is divided into J levels. According to this method, the susceptibility values of the N types of geological disasters in the Y evaluation units within the study area are calculated.

[0050] S5. Calculate the weight W of each type of geological disaster in different evaluation units according to the spatial distribution of each type of geological disaster. ny

[0051] According to the spatial location of the nth type of geological disaster in the study area, use the kernel density calculation tool of arcgis software to calculate the density ρ of the nth type of geological disaster in the yth evaluation unit. ny ; Calculate the hazard degree H of the nth type of geological disaster in the yth evaluation unit based on the economic loss and casualty data. ny ; Finally, determine the final weight W of the nth type of geological disaster in the yth evaluation unit. ny , and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0052]

[0053] In the formula, ρ 1y , ρ 2y , and ρ Ny respectively represent the kernel densities of the 1st, 2nd, and Nth types of geological disasters in the yth evaluation unit; H 1y , H 2y , and H Ny respectively represent the hazard degrees of the 1st, 2nd, and Nth types of geological disasters in the yth evaluation unit.

[0054] S6. Calculate the comprehensive susceptibility value V of the study area based on the susceptibility values and weights of each type of geological disaster. y ;

[0055] The calculation formula for the comprehensive susceptibility value V of the yth evaluation unit is: y V

[0056] V y =Q 1y W 1y +Q 2y W 2y +…V Ny W Ny ,

[0057] In the formula, Q 1y , Q 2y , Q Ny respectively are the susceptibility values of the 1st, 2nd, and Nth types of geological disasters in the yth evaluation unit; W 1y , W 2y , W nyThey are the weights of the first type, the second type, and the Nth type of geological disasters in the yth evaluation unit respectively; using this method, the comprehensive susceptibility values of a total of Y evaluation units in the entire study area can be calculated.

[0058] S7. Susceptibility Zoning

[0059] According to the comprehensive susceptibility values, the study area is divided into different susceptibility levels by using the natural breakpoint method. Usually, it is divided into very low susceptibility area, low susceptibility area, medium susceptibility area, high susceptibility area, and very high susceptibility area according to the size of the susceptibility values; when 0 ≤ V < 0.2, it is the very low susceptibility area; 0 ≤ V y <0.2, it is the very low susceptibility area; when 0.2 ≤ V y <0.4, it is the low susceptibility area; when 0.4 ≤ V y <0.6, it is the medium susceptibility area; when 0.6 ≤ V y <0.8, it is the high susceptibility area; when 0.8 ≤ V y ≤ 1, it is the very high susceptibility area. The zoning results can be used for disaster prevention and control planning (guiding the layout of disaster monitoring, early warning, and treatment projects), land use planning (avoiding high susceptibility areas and rationally using land resources), and emergency management (providing a scientific basis for formulating disaster emergency plans). Through susceptibility zoning, the spatial visualization of geological disaster risks is realized, providing intuitive and reliable references for decision-makers.

[0060] Through steps such as data collection, disaster classification, factor selection, susceptibility calculation, weight calculation, comprehensive susceptibility calculation, and susceptibility zoning, the present invention realizes the scientific combination of susceptibility maps of multi-hazard geological disasters. Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following remarkable advantages:

[0061] 1. Scientificity: By introducing a weight distribution mechanism, the occurrence probabilities and potential hazard degrees of different geological disasters are fully considered, making the combination result more scientific and reasonable;

[0062] 2. Comprehensiveness: It can simultaneously process the susceptibility data of multiple geological disasters, reflect the interaction and superposition effects between disasters, and provide a more comprehensive risk assessment result;

[0063] 3. Flexibility: The weight distribution can be adjusted according to the disaster characteristics and prevention and control requirements of specific regions, and it is applicable to different geological environments and disaster types;

[0064] 4. Efficiency: The weighted method is used to calculate the susceptibility values, and the calculation process is simple and efficient, which is applicable to large-scale data processing and dynamic update;

[0065] 5. Practicality: The generated comprehensive susceptibility map can be directly used in fields such as geological disaster prevention and control planning, land use planning, and emergency management, providing a reliable basis for decision-makers.

[0066] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit them; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or perform equivalent replacements on some or all of the technical features; and these modifications or replacements do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the various embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A geological disaster susceptibility coupling method based on the weighting method, characterized in that The method includes the following steps: S1. Collect data on geological disasters and geological environment factors for all evaluation units within the study area; S2. Classify geological disasters into N categories according to their causes, morphological characteristics, and actual distribution; S3. For different types of geological disasters, select I geological environment factors closely related to their development as influencing factors, and divide each influencing factor into J levels according to the magnitude or type of each influencing factor value; S4. Use an appropriate mathematical model or machine learning method to calculate the susceptibility value Q of each type of geological disaster in each evaluation unit ny ; S5. Calculate the weight W of each type of geological disaster in different evaluation units according to the spatial distribution of each type of geological disaster ny ; S6. Calculate the comprehensive susceptibility value V of the study area based on the susceptibility values and weights of various types of geological disasters y ; S7. According to the comprehensive susceptibility value, use the natural breakpoint method to divide the study area into different susceptibility levels.

2. The geological hazard susceptibility coupling method based on the weighting method as described in claim 1, wherein: In step S1, the geological disaster data includes distribution location, occurrence time, scale, and degree of harm, and the geological environment factor data includes topography, geological structure, climate conditions, hydrological characteristics, and human activities. The study area is divided into Y evaluation units.

3. The geological disaster susceptibility coupling method based on the weighting method according to claim 2, characterized in that: In step S4, the calculation formula for the susceptibility value is as follows: Q ny = ∑X nyij , Wherein, i represents the i-th influencing factor, and i ranges from 1 to I; j represents the j-th level of the i-th influencing factor, and j ranges from 1 to J; y represents the y-th evaluation unit, and y ranges from 1 to Y; X nyij represents the information quantity value of the y-th evaluation unit for the n-th type of geological disaster under the condition of the j-th level of the i-th influencing factor; H n represents the total area of the n-th type of geological disaster in the study area, and n ranges from 1 to N; H nij represents the area of the n-th type of geological disaster in the study area within the area of the j-th level of the i-th influencing factor; When there is no geological disaster, assign H nij a value of 0.001; A represents the total area of the study area; A ij represents the area of the j-th level of the i-th influencing factor within the study area; Q ny represents the information value, i.e., the susceptibility value, of the n-th type of geological disaster in the y-th evaluation unit under I influencing factors, each of which is divided into J levels. Calculate the susceptibility values of the N types of geological disasters in the Y evaluation units within the study area according to this method.

4. The geological hazard susceptibility coupling method based on the weighting method as described in claim 3, characterized in that: Step S5 specifically includes: According to the spatial location of the nth type of geological disaster in the research area, use the kernel density calculation tool of arcgis software to calculate the density ρ of the nth type of geological disaster in the yth evaluation unit ny ; Calculate the hazard degree H of the nth type of geological disaster in the yth evaluation unit based on economic losses and casualty data ny ; Finally, determine the final weight W of the nth type of geological disaster in the yth evaluation unit ny , and the calculation formula is as follows: Where ρ 1y , ρ 2y and ρ Ny respectively represent the kernel density of the first type, the second type, and the Nth type of geological disasters in the yth evaluation unit; H 1y , H 2y and H Ny respectively represent the hazard levels of the first type, the second type, and the Nth type of geological disasters in the yth evaluation unit.

5. The geological disaster susceptibility coupling method based on the weighting method as described in claim 4, characterized in that: In step S6, the comprehensive susceptibility value V of the y-th evaluation unit y is calculated by the formula: V y = Q 1y W 1y + Q 2y W 2y + … V Ny W Ny , Wherein, Q 1y , Q 2y , Q Ny are the susceptibility values of the first type, the second type, and the Nth type of geological disasters in the yth evaluation unit respectively; W 1y , W 2y , W ny are the weights of the first type, the second type, and the Nth type of geological disasters in the yth evaluation unit respectively; By using this method, the comprehensive susceptibility values of a total of Y evaluation units in the entire study area can be calculated.

6. The geological hazard susceptibility coupling method based on the weighting method as described in claim 1, characterized in that: In step S7, the susceptibility levels include extremely low susceptibility area, low susceptibility area, medium susceptibility area, high susceptibility area, and extremely high susceptibility area.

7. The geological disaster susceptibility coupling method based on the weighting method as described in claim 6, characterized in that: In step S7, when 0 ≤ V y < 0.2, it is an extremely low susceptibility area; when 0.2 ≤ V y < 0.4, it is a low susceptibility area; 0.4 ≤ V y <0.6, it is a medium-high incidence area; 0.6 ≤ V y <0.8, it is a high incidence area; 0.8 ≤ V y ≤ 1, it is an extremely high incidence area.

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