Short-term prediction method, device and equipment for variation amplitude of inclination angle of geomagnetic field

Abstract

The invention provides a short-term prediction method, device and equipment for the variation amplitude of a geomagnetic field inclination angle, and relates to the field of space weather forecast. The method comprises the following steps: carrying out space grid division on a to-be-predicted region and determining geographic coordinates of each grid point; calculating a geomagnetic field component of each grid point based on the geographic coordinate of each grid point and the current UT time; acquiring a Kp index forecast value of each moment in a future forecast window based on the current UT time, and acquiring a planet amplitude index ap of each moment in the future forecast window based on the Kp index forecast value; calculating the horizontal component disturbance value of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecasting window according to the planet amplitude index ap; and according to the geomagnetic field component at the corresponding position of each grid point and the geomagnetic field horizontal component disturbance value at each moment, predicting the geomagnetic inclination disturbance value of each grid point at each moment in the future forecasting window. In this way, the geomagnetic field dip angle disturbance amplitude can be predicted, and the speed and efficiency of geomagnetic field dip angle disturbance amplitude prediction can be improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of space weather forecasting, and in particular to a method, device and equipment for short-term prediction of the amplitude of changes in the inclination of the geomagnetic field. Background Art

[0002] Geomagnetic storms are global, violent disturbances of the Earth's magnetic field caused by solar wind plasma clouds reaching Earth's space. They are the most representative global space weather events. When a geomagnetic storm occurs, the Earth's magnetic field, particularly its horizontal component H, undergoes significant disturbances over a short period of time. This disturbance also significantly changes the geomagnetic inclination I. This has a direct impact on applications that rely on the geomagnetic field for navigation, such as aviation, navigation, and various positioning systems based on geomagnetic sensors, reducing navigation accuracy and reliability. Currently, short-term prediction methods for the magnitude of geomagnetic inclination variations within a region are still in their early stages of development. While existing geomagnetic field models can provide geomagnetic field component values at different locations, these models typically lack temporal information and are unable to predict geomagnetic field variations within a specific future timeframe. Some current prediction methods rely on data from a single observatory to infer geomagnetic field component changes, resulting in limited regional coverage and inapplicability to larger or specific regions. Furthermore, the relatively complex computational process also limits the speed and efficiency of predictions. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The present application provides a short-term prediction method, device and equipment for the amplitude of the change in the geomagnetic field inclination, which uses the short-term forecast data of the geomagnetic Kp index to predict the amplitude of the geomagnetic field inclination disturbance in the mid-magnetic latitude area, greatly simplifies the calculation process of the geomagnetic inclination disturbance amplitude, and improves the speed and efficiency of the prediction of the geomagnetic field inclination disturbance amplitude.

[0004] According to a first aspect of the present application, a method for short-term prediction of the magnitude of the change in the geomagnetic field inclination is provided, the method comprising:

[0005] Divide the prediction area into spatial grids and determine the geographic coordinates of each grid point;

[0006] Obtaining the current UT time, and calculating the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of each grid point based on the geographic coordinates of each grid point and the current UT time, wherein the geomagnetic field components include vertical and horizontal components;

[0007] Obtaining a Kp index forecast value for each moment in a future forecast window based on the current UT time, and obtaining a planetary amplitude index ap for each moment in the future forecast window based on the Kp index forecast value;

[0008] Calculating the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window based on the planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window;

[0009] The geomagnetic inclination disturbance value of each grid point at each moment in the future forecast window is predicted based on the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of the grid points and the disturbance value of the geomagnetic field horizontal component at each moment in the future forecast window.

[0010] According to the above aspects and any possible implementation, an implementation is further provided, wherein the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of the grid points are calculated based on the geographic coordinates of the grid points and the current UT time, wherein the geomagnetic field components include vertical components and horizontal components, including:

[0011] Based on the geographic coordinates of each grid point and the current UT time, the geomagnetic field model is called to calculate the north component, east component and vertical component of the corresponding position of each grid point;

[0012] Calculate the horizontal component of each grid point's corresponding position based on the north component and east component of each grid point's corresponding position.

[0013] According to the above aspects and any possible implementation, an implementation is further provided, wherein the calculating, based on the north component and the east component of the position corresponding to each grid point, the horizontal component corresponding to each grid point includes:

[0014]

[0015] Where H represents the horizontal component of the position corresponding to each grid point, X represents the north component of the position corresponding to each grid point, and Y represents the east component of the position corresponding to each grid point.

[0016] According to the aspects and any possible implementation methods described above, an implementation method is further provided, wherein the geomagnetic field model adopts the WMM2020 geomagnetic field model.

[0017] According to the above aspects and any possible implementation, an implementation is further provided, wherein the calculation of the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window based on the planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window includes:

[0018] ΔH=2ap;

[0019] Where ΔH is the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window.

[0020] According to the above aspects and any possible implementation, an implementation is further provided, wherein the geomagnetic inclination disturbance value of each grid point at each moment in the future forecast window is predicted based on the geomagnetic field components at the positions corresponding to the grid points and the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window, using the following formula:

[0021]

[0022] Where H represents the horizontal component of the position corresponding to each grid point, Z represents the vertical component of the position corresponding to each grid point, ΔH represents the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window, and ΔI represents the disturbance value of the geomagnetic inclination.

[0023] According to the above aspects and any possible implementation manner, an implementation manner is further provided, wherein the method further includes:

[0024] A real-time update mechanism is established to obtain the latest Kp index forecast value, and based on the latest Kp index forecast value, the corresponding planetary amplitude index ap is obtained to calculate the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window.

[0025] According to a second aspect of the present application, a short-term prediction device for the magnitude of the change in the geomagnetic field inclination is provided, the device comprising:

[0026] The regional division unit is used to divide the prediction area into spatial grids and determine the geographical coordinates of each grid point;

[0027] a geomagnetic field component acquisition unit, configured to acquire the current UT time and calculate the geomagnetic field component at the corresponding position of each grid point based on the geographical coordinates of each grid point and the current UT time, wherein the geomagnetic field component includes a vertical component and a horizontal component;

[0028] A planetary amplitude index ap acquisition unit is configured to acquire a Kp index forecast value at each moment in a future forecast window based on the current UT time, and acquire a planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window based on the Kp index forecast value;

[0029] a geomagnetic field horizontal component disturbance value acquisition unit, configured to calculate the geomagnetic field horizontal component disturbance value at each moment in the future forecast window based on the planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window;

[0030] The geomagnetic inclination disturbance value prediction unit is used to predict the geomagnetic inclination disturbance value of each grid point at each moment in the future forecast window based on the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of each grid point and the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window.

[0031] According to a third aspect of the present application, an electronic device is provided, comprising: a memory and a processor, wherein a computer program is stored in the memory, and the processor implements the above method when executing the program.

[0032] According to a fourth aspect of the present application, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the method according to the first aspect of the present application is implemented.

[0033] Compared with the prior art, the present disclosure achieves the following beneficial effects:

[0034] (1) By introducing short-term forecast data of the Kp index and combining it with the WMM2020 geomagnetic field model, the magnitude of the change in the geomagnetic field inclination in the mid-magnetic latitudes can be more accurately predicted. This method not only takes into account the influence of solar activity on the Earth's magnetic field, but also utilizes the mature geomagnetic index forecast, thereby improving the accuracy of the prediction.

[0035] (2) Compared with the existing methods that require a large number of input parameters and complex calculation processes, the present disclosure greatly simplifies the calculation process of the geomagnetic inclination disturbance amplitude. It assumes that the vertical component Z of the background geomagnetic field remains unchanged when a magnetic storm occurs, and the disturbance of the horizontal component H occurs on the basis of the background geomagnetic field, thereby reducing the calculation complexity and improving the efficiency.

[0036] It should be understood that the contents described in the Summary of the Invention are not intended to limit the key or important features of the embodiments of the present application, nor are they intended to limit the scope of the present application. Other features of the present application will become readily understood through the following description. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0037] The above and other features, advantages and aspects of the embodiments of the present application will become more apparent with reference to the following detailed description in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The accompanying drawings are provided for a better understanding of the present invention and do not constitute a limitation of the present application. In the accompanying drawings, the same or similar reference numerals represent the same or similar elements, among which:

[0038] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for short-term prediction of the magnitude of the geomagnetic field inclination change according to an embodiment of the present application is shown;

[0039] Figure 2 A block diagram of a short-term prediction device for the magnitude of changes in geomagnetic field inclination according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;

[0040] Figure 3 A block diagram of an exemplary electronic device capable of implementing embodiments of the present disclosure is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0041] To make the purpose, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of this application more clear, the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of this application. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of this application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in this application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0042] In this document, the term "and / or" simply describes a relationship between related objects, indicating that three possible relationships exist. For example, "A and / or B" can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist simultaneously, or B exists alone. Furthermore, the character " / " in this document generally indicates that the related objects are in an "or" relationship.

[0043] Example 1

[0044] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method 100 for short-term prediction of the magnitude of the geomagnetic field inclination change is shown. Figure 1 As shown, the method 100 includes the following steps:

[0045] S110, dividing the area to be predicted into spatial grids and determining the geographic coordinates of each grid point.

[0046] In some embodiments, in order to ensure the accuracy, coverage and computational efficiency of the prediction results, the regional boundaries of the geomagnetic inclination changes that need to be predicted are first clarified. The regional boundaries are determined based on user needs (such as a specific country or region), natural boundaries (such as continental plates, oceans) or magnetic latitude ranges. Furthermore, based on the required accuracy and computing resources, an appropriate grid size is selected. Smaller grids can provide higher spatial resolution but increase the amount of computation, while larger grids do the opposite.

[0047] After gridding is complete, the location of each grid point is defined using a standard latitude and longitude coordinate system. Each grid cell is uniquely identified by the longitude and latitude values of its four corner points. GIS software tools are used to create a regular spatial grid and automatically generate the precise geographic coordinates (including longitude and latitude) of all grid points, ensuring that all grid points are evenly distributed throughout the prediction area, with no overlap or omissions.

[0048] It should be emphasized that for special locations or places of special significance (such as observation stations), it may be necessary to manually adjust the grid point positions to ensure that they fall exactly at the required locations.

[0049] S120, obtaining the current UT time, and calculating the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of the grid points based on the geographical coordinates of the grid points and the current UT time, wherein the geomagnetic field components include vertical components and horizontal components.

[0050] In some embodiments, the WMM2020 (World Magnetic Model 2020) model is selected to calculate the geomagnetic field components. The WMM model is a joint US / UK World Magnetic Model established by the United States and the United Kingdom. It is also a global model that describes the Earth's main magnetic field and long-term changes. It is one of the candidate models provided for IGRF. The cutoff level of the WMM model is 2 orders higher than that of IGRF. The cutoff order of its main magnetic field part is N=12, and the long-term change is N=8, including 168 spherical harmonic coefficients. The first generation of the WMM model has been updated every five years since 1990. The fourth-generation world magnetic field model WMM2005 gives the main magnetic field model in 2005 and replaces the WMM2000 model for navigation systems. This method uses the latest WMM2020 geomagnetic field model as the main magnetic field model.

[0051] In some embodiments, the Earth's intrinsic magnetic field (primarily originating from the Earth's core) is relatively stable, but exogenous magnetic fields (such as those from the solar wind) can vary significantly over time and over the solar cycle. Therefore, when calculating geomagnetic field components, the current Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) must be taken into account to accurately reflect the current state of the geomagnetic field. Accurate time information is particularly crucial when it comes to short-term forecasts, as it influences the selection of the Kp index and other real-time geomagnetic activity indicators, and thus affects the prediction of geomagnetic field disturbances during magnetic storms.

[0052] After determining the geomagnetic field model, the geographic coordinates of the grid points and the current UT time are passed to the WMM2020 model. The northing component X, easting component Y, and vertical component Z corresponding to each grid point are extracted from the model output.

[0053] Furthermore, the horizontal component H of the geomagnetic field is calculated based on the north component X and the east component Y corresponding to each grid point. Specifically, the horizontal component H of the geomagnetic field is the vector sum of the north component and the east component in the horizontal plane, so

[0054]

[0055] The total field strength T of the Earth's magnetic field is:

[0056]

[0057] S130 , obtaining a Kp index forecast value at each moment in a future forecast window based on the current UT time, and obtaining a planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window based on the Kp index forecast value.

[0058] In some embodiments, due to the presence of an external field, the geomagnetic field is often in a short-term change, especially in years of high solar activity, when magnetic storms often occur. During a magnetic storm, the westward circular current above the earth rapidly increases. The change in the magnetic field caused by this circular current on the ground will directly lead to a decrease in the horizontal component. In order to measure the severity of this change in the geomagnetic field, the geomagnetic activity index Kp is introduced (Kp only depends on time and has nothing to do with geographical longitude and latitude). In this embodiment, 13 geomagnetic stations are selected near the magnetic latitude of 52 °, and the average value of their three-hour magnetic index K index is used to obtain the planet's three-hour magnetic index Kp. The Kp index has a value every three hours, with a total of 9 levels. The two values are further subdivided between them, for a total of 28 levels. The future forecast window in this embodiment is set to 72 hours.

[0059] The Kp index's physical significance lies in its planetary-scale reflection of the geophysical effects of large-scale convection in the magnetosphere. It is a comprehensive reflection of the effects of the magnetospheric current system on the ground magnetic field. Based on the level of solar activity and the propagation patterns of interplanetary disturbances, the Kp index can be forecasted, typically with a 72-hour forecast horizon. This provides the basis and input for predicting magnetic dip disturbances over the next 72 hours. However, the Kp index and the magnitude of the magnetic field disturbance are not linearly related, but rather approximately logarithmically. Therefore, they cannot be directly added together and do not directly reflect the change in the horizontal component. To directly reflect the magnitude of the disturbance in the horizontal component of the magnetic field, the planetary amplitude index ap is used to measure the change in the horizontal component caused by a magnetic storm. Its unit is 2nT. The corresponding relationship between the ap index and the Kp index is shown in Table 1.

[0060] Table 1

[0061]

[0062] In some embodiments, the present disclosure also establishes a real-time update mechanism to obtain the latest Kp index forecast value in real time, and based on the latest Kp index forecast value, obtains the corresponding planetary amplitude index ap to calculate the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window, thereby ensuring the timeliness and effectiveness of the prediction information and enhancing the practical value of the system.

[0063] S140, calculating the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window based on the planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window.

[0064] In some embodiments, the Kp index is not linearly related to the magnitude of the magnetic field disturbance, but rather has an approximately logarithmic relationship. Therefore, they cannot be directly added together, nor can they directly reflect the change in the horizontal component. Therefore, to directly reflect the disturbance in the horizontal component of the magnetic field, the planetary amplitude index ap is used to measure the change in the horizontal component ΔH caused by the magnetic storm. Its unit is 2nT. Specifically, the following formula is used:

[0065] ΔH=2ap.

[0066] S150, predicting the geomagnetic inclination disturbance value of each grid point at each moment in the future forecast window based on the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of each grid point and the geomagnetic field horizontal component disturbance value at each moment in the future forecast window.

[0067] In some embodiments, the geomagnetic inclination disturbance value ΔI is calculated according to the derivative formula of the magnetic inclination formula. The specific derivation process is as follows:

[0068] The declination of the Earth's magnetic field is the angle between the horizontal component of the magnetic field and the geographic north. It is measured clockwise from the geographic north and is usually measured in units of angular minutes.

[0069] tan D=Y / X

[0070] The inclination angle I of the Earth's magnetic field, defined as the angle between the total magnetic field and the local horizontal plane, is positive downward.

[0071] tan I=Z / H

[0072] Normally, the vertical component of the geomagnetic field is relatively stable and does not change too much. When a magnetic storm occurs, the disturbance mainly occurs in the horizontal component H. Assuming that the vertical component of the geomagnetic field does not change, then the change in the horizontal component will cause the geomagnetic inclination I to change. For different locations, the magnitude relationship between the horizontal component and the vertical component is different, and the inclination is also different, so the change in inclination caused by the same horizontal component disturbance is also different. Specifically, the lower the geomagnetic latitude, the larger the horizontal component H of the geomagnetic field, the smaller the vertical component Z, and the smaller the change in magnetic inclination caused by the same horizontal component H disturbance ΔH; conversely, the higher the geomagnetic latitude, the larger the vertical component Z of the geomagnetic field, the smaller the horizontal component H, and the greater the change in magnetic inclination caused by the same horizontal component H disturbance ΔH. Therefore, quantitatively, according to the definition of geomagnetic inclination, we can get

[0073] I = arctan(Z / H);

[0074] Assuming that Z is constant, we can get the derivative of H.

[0075]

[0076] In engineering terms, it can be rewritten as

[0077]

[0078] The above formula quantitatively reflects the relationship between the magnetic inclination disturbance ΔI and the horizontal component disturbance ΔH, where H and Z are the horizontal and vertical components of the local background magnetic field.

[0079] In some embodiments, in order to verify the prediction results of this solution, it is necessary to verify the predicted geomagnetic inclination disturbance value. Specifically, based on the actual measurement data of the geomagnetic station, the average geomagnetic inclination value is first calculated. (In order to eliminate the influence of the daily variation of the Earth's magnetic field, it is necessary to select the geomagnetic observation data under the same magnetic quiet conditions at the same local time to calculate the geomagnetic inclination.) In the first few days of the verification point, select the observation data of 5 days that meet the above magnetic quiet and local time conditions, and average them to obtain the average geomagnetic inclination. At the verification point, the magnetic inclination I is calculated based on the observation data of the geomagnetic station, thereby obtaining the actual observation value of the geomagnetic inclination disturbance ΔI=I- .

[0080] Furthermore, error analysis is performed based on the actual observed values and predicted values to evaluate the prediction accuracy. Specifically, the root mean square error (RMSE) between the predicted values and the actual observed values is calculated. If the root mean square error (RMSE) between the predicted values and the actual observed values is small, the model has a high prediction accuracy. Otherwise, it indicates that there is a large prediction deviation, and the model may need to be improved or the parameters may need to be adjusted.

[0081] Because the method already accounts for the distribution of magnetic fields at different locations, regional factors should also be considered during validation. For example, data from four stations, Mohe in Heilongjiang Province, the Ming Tombs in Beijing, Wuhan in Hubei Province, and Sanya in Hainan Province, were used for validation. The validation period could cover data from different levels of geomagnetic activity.

[0082] According to the embodiments of the present disclosure, the following beneficial effects are achieved:

[0083] (1) This application is the first to predict the change amplitude of the geomagnetic field inclination in the mid-magnetic latitude region by introducing the short-term forecast data of the Kp index in combination with the WMM2020 geomagnetic field model. This method not only takes into account the impact of solar activity on the Earth's magnetic field, but also utilizes the mature geomagnetic index forecast to improve the accuracy of the prediction.

[0084] (2) Compared with the existing methods that require a large number of input parameters and complex calculation processes, the present disclosure greatly simplifies the calculation process of the geomagnetic inclination disturbance amplitude. It assumes that the vertical component Z of the background geomagnetic field remains unchanged when a magnetic storm occurs, and the disturbance of the horizontal component H occurs on the basis of the background geomagnetic field, thereby reducing the calculation complexity and improving the efficiency.

[0085] (3) The present disclosure establishes a real-time update mechanism to obtain the latest Kp index forecast values, and based on these data, quickly calculates the disturbance values of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window, ensuring the timeliness and effectiveness of the forecast information and enhancing the practical value of the system.

[0086] It should be noted that for the aforementioned method embodiments, for the sake of simplicity, they are all expressed as a series of action combinations, but those skilled in the art should be aware that this application is not limited by the order of the actions described, because according to this application, certain steps can be performed in other orders or simultaneously. Secondly, those skilled in the art should also be aware that the embodiments described in this specification are all optional embodiments, and the actions and modules involved are not necessarily required by this application.

[0087] The above is an introduction to the method embodiment. The following is a device embodiment to further illustrate the solution described in this application.

[0088] Figure 2 FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing a short-term prediction device 300 for the magnitude of the geomagnetic field inclination change according to an embodiment of the present application, as shown in FIG. Figure 2 As shown, the apparatus 300 includes:

[0089] The region division unit 310 is used to divide the prediction region into spatial grids and determine the geographic coordinates of each grid point;

[0090] The geomagnetic field component acquisition unit 320 is used to obtain the current UT time and calculate the geomagnetic field component of the corresponding position of each grid point based on the geographical coordinates of each grid point and the current UT time, wherein the geomagnetic field component includes a vertical component and a horizontal component;

[0091] The planetary amplitude index ap acquisition unit 330 is configured to acquire a Kp index forecast value at each moment in a future forecast window based on the current UT time, and acquire a planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window based on the Kp index forecast value;

[0092] The geomagnetic field horizontal component disturbance value acquisition unit 340 is used to calculate the geomagnetic field horizontal component disturbance value at each moment in the future forecast window based on the planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window;

[0093] The geomagnetic inclination disturbance value prediction unit 350 is used to predict the geomagnetic inclination disturbance value of each grid point at each moment in the future forecast window based on the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of each grid point and the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window.

[0094] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that, for the convenience and brevity of description, the specific working process of the described module can refer to the corresponding process in the aforementioned method embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0095] According to an embodiment of the present disclosure, the present disclosure also provides an electronic device, a readable storage medium, and a computer program product.

[0096] Figure 3 A schematic block diagram of an electronic device 400 that can be used to implement an embodiment of the present disclosure is shown. The electronic device is intended to represent various forms of digital computers, such as laptop computers, desktop computers, workstations, personal digital assistants, servers, blade servers, mainframe computers, and other suitable computers. The electronic device can also represent various forms of mobile devices, such as personal digital assistants, cellular phones, smartphones, wearable devices, and other similar computing devices. The components shown herein, their connections and relationships, and their functions are merely examples and are not intended to limit the implementation of the present disclosure described and / or claimed herein.

[0097] The electronic device 400 includes a computing unit 401, which can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to a computer program stored in a ROM 402 or a computer program loaded from a storage unit 408 into a RAM 403. The RAM 403 may also store various programs and data required for the operation of the electronic device 400. The computing unit 401, the ROM 402, and the RAM 403 are connected to each other via a bus 404. An I / O interface 405 is also connected to the bus 404.

[0098] Multiple components in the electronic device 400 are connected to the I / O interface 405, including an input unit 406, such as a keyboard, a mouse, etc.; an output unit 407, such as various types of displays, speakers, etc.; a storage unit 408, such as a magnetic disk, an optical disk, etc.; and a communication unit 409, such as a network card, a modem, a wireless communication transceiver, etc. The communication unit 409 allows the electronic device 400 to exchange information / data with other devices via a computer network such as the Internet and / or various telecommunication networks.

[0099] The computing unit 401 can be a variety of general-purpose and / or specialized processing components with processing and computing capabilities. Some examples of the computing unit 401 include, but are not limited to, a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU), various dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) computing chips, various computing units that run machine learning model algorithms, a digital signal processor (DSP), and any appropriate processor, controller, microcontroller, etc. The computing unit 401 performs the various methods and processes described above, such as method 100. For example, in some embodiments, the method 100 can be implemented as a computer software program that is tangibly contained in a machine-readable medium, such as a storage unit 408. In some embodiments, part or all of the computer program can be loaded and / or installed on the electronic device 400 via the ROM 402 and / or the communication unit 409. When the computer program is loaded into the RAM 403 and executed by the computing unit 401, one or more steps of the method 100 described above can be performed. Alternatively, in other embodiments, the computing unit 401 can be configured to perform the method 100 in any other appropriate manner (e.g., by means of firmware).

[0100] Various embodiments of the systems and techniques described herein can be implemented in digital electronic circuit systems, integrated circuit systems, field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), application specific integrated circuits (ASICs), application specific standard products (ASSPs), system-on-chip systems (SOCs), programmable logic devices (CPLDs), computer hardware, firmware, software, and / or combinations thereof. These various embodiments can include being implemented in one or more computer programs that are executable and / or interpreted on a programmable system comprising at least one programmable processor, which can be a special purpose or general purpose programmable processor that can receive data and instructions from a storage system, at least one input device, and at least one output device, and transmit data and instructions to the storage system, the at least one input device, and the at least one output device.

[0101] The program code for implementing the method of the present disclosure can be written in any combination of one or more programming languages. These program codes can be provided to a processor or controller of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, or other programmable data processing device so that when the program code is executed by the processor or controller, the functions / operations specified in the flow chart and / or block diagram are implemented. The program code can be executed entirely on the machine, partially on the machine, as a stand-alone software package, partially on the machine and partially on a remote machine, or entirely on a remote machine or server.

[0102] In the context of the present disclosure, a machine-readable medium can be a tangible medium that can contain or store a program for use by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system, device or equipment. A machine-readable medium can be a machine-readable signal medium or a machine-readable storage medium. A machine-readable medium can include, but is not limited to, an electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, device or equipment, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. A more specific example of a machine-readable storage medium can include an electrical connection based on one or more lines, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing.

[0103] To provide interaction with a user, the systems and techniques described herein can be implemented on a computer having: a display device for displaying information to the user; and a keyboard and pointing device (e.g., a mouse or trackball) through which the user can provide input to the computer. Other types of devices can also be used to provide interaction with the user; for example, the feedback provided to the user can be any form of sensory feedback (e.g., visual feedback, auditory feedback, or tactile feedback); and input from the user can be received in any form (including acoustic input, voice input, or tactile input).

[0104] The systems and techniques described herein can be implemented in a computing system that includes back-end components (e.g., as a data server), or a computing system that includes middleware components (e.g., an application server), or a computing system that includes front-end components (e.g., a user computer having a graphical user interface or a web browser through which a user can interact with implementations of the systems and techniques described herein), or a computing system that includes any combination of such back-end components, middleware components, or front-end components. The components of the system can be interconnected by any form or medium of digital data communication (e.g., a communication network). Examples of communication networks include a local area network (LAN), a wide area network (WAN), and the Internet.

[0105] A computer system may include a client and a server. The client and server are generally remote from each other and typically interact through a communication network. The client-server relationship arises through computer programs running on the respective computers and having a client-server relationship with each other. The server may be a cloud server, a server in a distributed system, or a server integrated with a blockchain.

[0106] In the technical solution of this application, the acquisition, storage and application of user personal information involved are in compliance with the provisions of relevant laws and regulations and do not violate public order and good morals.

[0107] It should be understood that the various forms of the processes shown above can be used to reorder, add, or delete steps. For example, the steps described in this application can be performed in parallel, sequentially, or in a different order, as long as the desired results of the technical solutions disclosed in this application can be achieved. This is not a limitation herein.

[0108] The above specific embodiments do not constitute a limitation on the scope of protection of this application. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that various modifications, combinations, sub-combinations, and substitutions may be made based on design requirements and other factors. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, and improvements made within the spirit and principles of this application shall be included within the scope of protection of this application.

Claims

1. A short-term prediction method for the amplitude of the geomagnetic field inclination change, characterized in that: include: Divide the prediction area into spatial grids and determine the geographic coordinates of each grid point; Obtaining the current UT time, and calculating the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of each grid point based on the geographic coordinates of each grid point and the current UT time, wherein the geomagnetic field components include vertical and horizontal components; Obtaining a Kp index forecast value for each moment in a future forecast window based on the current UT time, and obtaining a planetary amplitude index ap for each moment in the future forecast window based on the Kp index forecast value; Calculating the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window based on the planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window; The geomagnetic inclination disturbance value of each grid point at each moment in the future forecast window is predicted based on the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of the grid points and the disturbance value of the geomagnetic field horizontal component at each moment in the future forecast window.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The calculating of the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of the grid points based on the geographic coordinates of the grid points and the current UT time, wherein the geomagnetic field components include vertical components and horizontal components, includes: Based on the geographic coordinates of each grid point and the current UT time, the geomagnetic field model is called to calculate the north component, east component and vertical component of the corresponding position of each grid point; Calculate the horizontal component of each grid point's corresponding position based on the north component and east component of each grid point's corresponding position.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that Calculating the horizontal component of the position corresponding to each grid point according to the north component and the east component of the position corresponding to each grid point includes: Where H represents the horizontal component of the position corresponding to each grid point, X represents the north component of the position corresponding to each grid point, and Y represents the east component of the position corresponding to each grid point.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The geomagnetic field model adopts the WMM2020 geomagnetic field model.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein The calculating, based on the planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window, the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window, comprises: ΔH=2ap; Where ΔH is the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that According to the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of the grid points and the disturbance values of the horizontal components of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window, the geomagnetic inclination disturbance values at each grid point at each moment in the future forecast window are predicted using the following formula: Where H represents the horizontal component of the position corresponding to each grid point, Z represents the vertical component of the position corresponding to each grid point, ΔH represents the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window, and ΔI represents the disturbance value of the geomagnetic inclination.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The method further comprises: A real-time update mechanism is established to obtain the latest Kp index forecast value, and based on the latest Kp index forecast value, the corresponding planetary amplitude index ap is obtained to calculate the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window.

8. A short-term prediction device for the amplitude of the geomagnetic field inclination change, characterized in that: include: The regional division unit is used to divide the prediction area into spatial grids and determine the geographical coordinates of each grid point; a geomagnetic field component acquisition unit, configured to acquire the current UT time and calculate the geomagnetic field component at the corresponding position of each grid point based on the geographical coordinates of each grid point and the current UT time, wherein the geomagnetic field component includes a vertical component and a horizontal component; A planetary amplitude index ap acquisition unit is configured to acquire a Kp index forecast value at each moment in a future forecast window based on the current UT time, and acquire a planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window based on the Kp index forecast value; a geomagnetic field horizontal component disturbance value acquisition unit, configured to calculate the geomagnetic field horizontal component disturbance value at each moment in the future forecast window based on the planetary amplitude index ap at each moment in the future forecast window; The geomagnetic inclination disturbance value prediction unit is used to predict the geomagnetic inclination disturbance value of each grid point at each moment in the future forecast window based on the geomagnetic field components at the corresponding positions of each grid point and the disturbance value of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at each moment in the future forecast window.

9. An electronic device comprising: at least one processor; as well as a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein, The memory stores instructions that can be executed by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor to enable the at least one processor to perform the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions, wherein: The computer instructions are used to cause the computer to execute the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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