Natural gas inlet amount determination method, device, equipment and computer program

Abstract

The invention discloses a natural gas inlet amount determination method, device and equipment and a computer program, and relates to the technical field of natural gas inlet amount determination. The actual natural gas inlet total amount in a current time period in a target area and the historical natural gas load condition of a natural gas receiving station in the target area are obtained; according to the actual natural gas inlet total amount and the historical natural gas load conditions of the natural gas receiving stations, the first natural gas inlet amount of each natural gas receiving station in the target area after the preset duration is determined, and the second natural gas inlet amount of each natural gas receiving station in the first time period is determined; the first time period is after the current time period; and according to the first natural gas inlet amount, the second natural gas inlet amount and the actual natural gas inlet total amount of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area, the natural gas inlet amount of each natural gas receiving station in the target time period after the current time period is predicted.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of determining the amount of natural gas imports, and in particular to a method, apparatus, device, and computer program for determining the amount of natural gas imports. Background Art

[0002] Current methods for forecasting liquefied natural gas (LNG) import volumes primarily rely on time series models, machine learning methods, and natural gas import management plans. These methods primarily analyze historical import data patterns at natural gas receiving stations to generate forecasts for future import volumes. These methods are only applicable to a single, established natural gas receiving station and the total volume of natural gas imports. They are unable to predict import volumes for newly commissioned natural gas receiving stations or for all stations within a target region. Therefore, predicting natural gas import volumes for all stations within a target region to improve economic efficiency has become a pressing technical challenge. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The purpose of this application is to provide a method, device, equipment and computer program for determining the natural gas import volume, which is intended to determine the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in a target area within a preset time.

[0004] To achieve the above objectives, this application adopts the following technical solutions:

[0005] In a first aspect, the purpose of this application is to provide a method for determining the amount of natural gas imports, comprising:

[0006] Obtain the total actual natural gas import volume within the target area during the current time period and the historical natural gas load conditions of the natural gas receiving stations within the target area; determine a first natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station within the target area after a preset period of time based on the total actual natural gas import volume and the historical natural gas load conditions of the natural gas receiving stations, and determine a second natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station within the first time period; the first time period being after the current time period; and predict the natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station within a target time period after the current time period based on the first natural gas import volume, the second natural gas import volume, and the total actual natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving stations within the target area.

[0007] Based on the above technical means, the present application can determine the first natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in the target area after a preset period of time based on the actual total natural gas import volume in the current time period and the historical natural gas load of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area, and determine the second natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in the first time period. By predicting the natural gas import volume from these two aspects, the error in determining the natural gas import volume is reduced, and the scientific nature and feasibility of the solution are improved. The natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in the target time period after the current time period is predicted based on the first natural gas import volume, the second natural gas import volume, and the actual total natural gas import volume. Difference balancing is performed during the prediction process, which reduces data fluctuations in the prediction results, reduces errors in the final results, and improves the accuracy of the results, thereby improving the economic benefits brought about by determining the natural gas import volume within the preset time period.

[0008] In one possible implementation, the first natural gas import volume is determined by: determining an average load rate of multiple natural gas receiving stations in a target area after a preset period of time based on the total amount of natural gas and the historical natural gas load of each natural gas receiving station; determining the load rates of natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in the target area based on the average load rate of multiple natural gas receiving stations in the target area; and determining the first natural gas import volume corresponding to each of the natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in the target area based on the load rates of the natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities.

[0009] According to the above technical means, the average load rate of multiple natural gas receiving stations in the target area after a preset period of time is determined based on the total amount of natural gas and the historical natural gas load of each natural gas receiving station; the load rate of the natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in the target area is determined based on the average load rate of multiple natural gas receiving stations in the target area; the accuracy of the data is increased, and the corresponding first natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station is determined based on the load rate of the natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in the target area, thereby further narrowing the target range and improving the accuracy of the determination method.

[0010] In one possible implementation, for each natural gas receiving station, the second natural gas import volume is determined by: determining the type of the natural gas receiving station based on the natural gas receiving station information; and determining the second natural gas import volume based on the type of the natural gas receiving station and the first natural gas import volume.

[0011] In one possible implementation, for each natural gas receiving station, the method further includes: determining a third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station within a second time period based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station; the second time period is located after the first time period, and the length of the first time period and the length of the second time period are less than a preset time length.

[0012] In one possible implementation, determining a third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the second time period based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume includes: performing linear interpolation on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume to obtain the third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the second time period.

[0013] In one possible implementation, the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in a target time period following a current time period is predicted based on a first natural gas import volume, a second natural gas import volume, and the actual total natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area. This includes: determining the predicted total natural gas import volume in the target area based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume; and coordinating and allocating the difference between the actual total natural gas import volume and the predicted total natural gas import volume to obtain the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in the target time period following the current time period.

[0014] Based on the above technical means, by coordinating and allocating the difference between the actual total natural gas import volume and the predicted total natural gas import volume, the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in the target time period after the current time period is obtained. The natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station is further balanced and allocated to obtain the final result, thereby improving the accuracy of the final result.

[0015] In a second aspect, the present application provides a device for determining a natural gas import quantity, the device comprising:

[0016] An acquisition module is used to obtain the total actual natural gas import volume in the target area during the current time period and the historical natural gas load of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area;

[0017] a determination module configured to determine, based on the total actual natural gas import volume and the historical natural gas load of the natural gas receiving station, a first natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in the target area after a preset period of time, and to determine a second natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station within a first time period, wherein the first time period is after the current time period;

[0018] The determination module is further used to predict the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in a target time period after the current time period based on the first natural gas import volume, the second natural gas import volume and the actual total natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the target area.

[0019] In one possible implementation, the determination module determines the first natural gas import volume in the following manner: determining the average load rate of multiple natural gas receiving stations in the target area after a preset period of time based on the total natural gas volume and the historical natural gas load of each natural gas receiving station; determining the load rate of natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in the target area based on the average load rate of multiple natural gas receiving stations in the target area; and determining the first natural gas import volume corresponding to each of the natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in the target area based on the load rate of the natural gas receiving stations.

[0020] In one possible implementation, the determination module determines, for each natural gas receiving station, the second natural gas import volume in the following manner: determining the type of the natural gas receiving station based on the natural gas receiving station information; and determining the second natural gas import volume based on the type of the natural gas receiving station and the first natural gas import volume.

[0021] In one possible implementation, the determination module, for each natural gas receiving station, the method further includes: determining a third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station within a second time period based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station; the second time period is located after the first time period, and the length of the first time period and the length of the second time period are less than a preset time length.

[0022] In one possible implementation, the determination module determines a third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station within the second time period based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume, including: performing linear interpolation on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume to obtain the third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station within the second time period.

[0023] In one possible implementation, a determination module predicts the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in a target time period following a current time period based on a first natural gas import volume, a second natural gas import volume, and an actual total natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area. The determination module includes: determining the predicted total natural gas import volume in the target area based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume; and coordinating and allocating the difference between the actual total natural gas import volume and the predicted total natural gas import volume to obtain the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in the target time period following the current time period.

[0024] In a third aspect, the present application provides an electronic device comprising: a memory and a processor; the memory and the processor are coupled; the memory is used to store instructions executable by the processor; and when the processor executes the instructions, it executes the method for determining the natural gas import volume as described in any one of claims 1-6.

[0025] In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer storage medium, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions. When the computer instructions are executed on an electronic device, the electronic device executes the method for determining the natural gas import volume according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

[0026] In a fifth aspect, the present application provides a computer program product comprising instructions, which, when executed on an electronic device, enables the electronic device to execute the pipeline construction time determination method as described in the first aspect and any possible implementation manner of the first aspect. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0027] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without any creative work.

[0028] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for determining natural gas import volume provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0029] Figure 2 A flow chart of another method for determining natural gas import volume provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0030] Figure 3 A schematic structural diagram of a natural gas import quantity determination device provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0031] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of this application to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application. Obviously, the embodiments described are only part of the embodiments of this application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in this application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0032] In the description of this application, it should be understood that the terms "upper," "lower," "left," "right," "front," "back," "inner," "outer," and the like, indicating directions or positional relationships, are based on the directions or relative positional relationships shown in the accompanying drawings and are intended solely to facilitate the description of this application and simplify the description. They do not indicate or imply that the devices or components referred to must have a specific direction, be constructed, or operate in a specific direction. Therefore, they should not be construed as limitations on this application. Unless otherwise specified, the above-mentioned directionality descriptions may be flexibly set in actual application, provided that the relative positional relationships shown in the accompanying drawings are met.

[0033] The terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the number of the technical features being referred to. Thus, a feature specified as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of such features. Throughout this application, unless otherwise specified, "plurality" means two or more.

[0034] In the description of this application, it should be noted that, unless otherwise expressly specified or limited, the terms "mounted," "connected," "connected," and "connected" should be understood broadly. For example, they may refer to fixed connections, detachable connections, or integral connections. They may be directly connected, indirectly connected through an intermediary, or internally connected between two components. Those skilled in the art will understand the specific meanings of these terms in this application based on the specific circumstances.

[0035] In the embodiments of the present application, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variations thereof are intended to encompass non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, article, or device comprising a series of elements includes not only those elements but also other elements not explicitly listed, or elements inherent to such process, article, or device. In the absence of further limitations, an element defined by the phrase "comprising a ..." does not preclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, article, or device comprising the element.

[0036] In the embodiments of this application, words such as "exemplary" or "for example" are used to indicate examples, illustrations, or descriptions. Any embodiment or design described as "exemplary" or "for example" in the embodiments of this application should not be interpreted as being preferred or advantageous over other embodiments or designs. Rather, the use of words such as "exemplary" or "for example" is intended to present the relevant concepts in a concrete manner.

[0037] In the description of this specification, specific features, structures, materials or characteristics may be combined in an appropriate manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.

[0038] like Figure 1 As shown, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for predicting natural gas import volume, the method comprising:

[0039] S101. Obtain the total amount of natural gas actually imported into the target area during the current time period and the historical natural gas load of each natural gas receiving station in the target area;

[0040] The scope of the target area can be a province, a city or the whole country.

[0041] Among them, the current time period includes time within a period of time in the future, such as the next 10 years, 20 years, etc.

[0042] Among them, the total amount of imported natural gas includes all natural gas (liquefied natural gas) receiving stations in the target area.

[0043] Among them, the historical natural gas load situation of each natural gas receiving station includes the historical average load rate of natural gas receiving stations in the target area.

[0044] In one possible implementation, the total amount of natural gas imported into the target area during the current time period is obtained. The total amount of natural gas imported during the current time period satisfies the following formula:

[0045] Total annual natural gas import volume in the target area Q a = Annual natural gas consumption in the target area - Annual domestic gas supply - Annual imported pipeline gas supply Formula 1

[0046] Among them, the annual natural gas consumption in the target area, the annual supply of domestic gas, and the annual supply of imported pipeline gas are all obtained from known channels or data.

[0047] S102: Determine a first natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in the target area after a preset period of time based on the actual total natural gas import volume and the historical natural gas load of the natural gas receiving station, and determine a second natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in the first time period.

[0048] Among them, the first natural gas import volume refers to the annual import volume of each natural gas receiving station in the target area after a preset period of time.

[0049] Among them, the preset duration can be 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, 25 years, etc.

[0050] The second natural gas import volume refers to the natural gas import volume of natural gas receiving stations of different entities in the target area during the first time period.

[0051] The first time period is shorter than the preset duration and may be 3 years, 5 years, etc.

[0052] In one possible implementation, the average load rate of natural gas import stations within different ranges within the target region is determined based on the actual total natural gas import volume and the historical natural gas load of the natural gas receiving stations. Based on the average load rate of natural gas receiving stations within different ranges within the target region, the natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station of different operating entities within the different ranges is determined.

[0053] In another possible implementation, natural gas receiving stations are classified into types based on their information; and then, based on the types of natural gas receiving stations and the daily first natural gas import volumes of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area, the second natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in the target area during the first time period is determined.

[0054] S103: Predict the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in a target time period after the current time period based on the first natural gas import volume, the second natural gas import volume, and the actual total natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area.

[0055] The target time period indicates the time period for which the natural gas import volume needs to be predicted.

[0056] In one possible implementation, the total predicted natural gas import volume in the target area is determined based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume; the difference between the actual total natural gas import volume and the predicted total natural gas import volume is coordinated and allocated to obtain the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in the target time period after the current time period.

[0057] Based on the above technical means, the present application can determine the first natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in the target area after a preset period of time based on the actual total natural gas import volume in the current time period and the historical natural gas load of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area, and determine the second natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in the first time period. By predicting the natural gas import volume from these two aspects, the error in determining the natural gas import volume is reduced, and the scientific nature and feasibility of the solution are improved. The natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in the target time period after the current time period is predicted based on the first natural gas import volume, the second natural gas import volume, and the actual total natural gas import volume. Difference balancing is performed during the prediction process, which reduces data fluctuations in the prediction results, reduces errors in the final results, and improves the accuracy of the results, thereby improving the economic benefits brought about by determining the natural gas import volume within the preset time period.

[0058] like Figure 2 As shown, the embodiment of the present application provides a method for determining the natural gas import volume, and the above S103 specifically includes S201-S204.

[0059] S201. Determine an average load rate of multiple natural gas receiving stations within a target area after a preset period of time based on the total amount of natural gas and historical natural gas load conditions of the natural gas receiving stations.

[0060] In one possible implementation, the load rate of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area after a preset period of time is determined based on the total amount of natural gas and the historical natural gas load of the natural gas receiving stations; the load rates of the natural gas receiving stations of different entities in the target area are determined based on the load rates of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area; and the first natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving stations is determined based on the load rates of the natural gas receiving stations of different entities in the target area.

[0061] Specifically, the natural gas receiving stations in the target area are divided into areas according to their locations and supply ranges, and are then divided into the first area, the second area, and the third area from high to low based on actual development conditions and natural gas demand, with natural gas demand as a reference data.

[0062] Among them, the average load rate of the natural gas receiving stations in the first area and the second area is determined first.

[0063] In one possible implementation, the annual average load rate of the natural gas receiving stations in the first area is determined based on the annual average load rate of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area, and the average load rate satisfies the following formula 2:

[0064] R CN =R aN +P Formula 2

[0065] Among them, R CN represents the average load rate of the first regional natural gas receiving station in year N, R aN represents the average load rate of natural gas receiving stations in the target area in year N, and P represents a constant.

[0066] In one example, the average load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the first region in year 1 is R C1 , usually R C1 Equal to the average load rate R of the natural gas receiving station in the first region in the current year C0 , which satisfies the following formula three:

[0067] R C1 =R C0 Formula 3

[0068] Furthermore, the average load rate Rci of the natural gas receiving station in the first region between the first year and the Nth year can be obtained by linear interpolation, and Rci satisfies the following formula 4:

[0069]

[0070] R CN represents the average load rate of the first regional natural gas receiving station in year N, R c1It represents the average load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the first region in any year between the 1st year and the Nth year. i represents the i-th year after the current year and can be 1, 2, 3...N.

[0071] In another possible implementation, the annual average load rate of the natural gas receiving stations in the second area is determined based on the annual average load rate of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area, and the average load rate satisfies the following formula 5:

[0072] R DN =R aN +P Formula 5

[0073] Among them, R DN represents the average load rate of the second region natural gas receiving station in year N, R aN represents the average load rate of natural gas receiving stations in the target area in year N, and P represents a constant.

[0074] In one example, the average load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the second region in year 1 is R D1 , usually R D1 Equal to the average load rate R of the natural gas receiving station in the first region in the current year D0 , which satisfies the following formula six:

[0075] R D1 =R D0 Formula 6

[0076] Furthermore, the average load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the first region between the first year and the Nth year is R Di It can be obtained by linear interpolation, R Di Satisfy the following formula seven:

[0077]

[0078] R DN represents the average load rate of the second region natural gas receiving station in year N, R D1 It represents the average load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the second region in any year between the 1st year and the Nth year. i represents the i-th year after the current year and can be 1, 2, 3...N.

[0079] Furthermore, the average load rate of the natural gas receiving stations in the third area is determined according to the average load rate of the natural gas receiving stations in the first area and the average load rate of the natural gas receiving stations in the second area.

[0080] The total natural gas import volume of the third region can be determined based on the total natural gas import volume in the target region, the total natural gas import volume in the first region, and the total natural gas import volume in the second region. The total natural gas import volume in the third region satisfies the following formula 8:

[0081] Q Hi =Q ai -R Ci *A Ci -R Di *A Di Formula 8

[0082] Among them, Q Hi represents the total supply of natural gas receiving stations in the third region in year i, R ci represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the first region in year i, R Di A represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the second region in year i, Ci A represents the receiving capacity of the first regional natural gas receiving station in year i; Di represents the receiving capacity of the second regional natural gas receiving station in year i.

[0083] Among them, the receiving capacity of the natural gas receiving station can be obtained through information statistics of the target receiving station and is known data.

[0084] Furthermore, the average load rate of the natural gas receiving stations in the third region is determined based on the total amount of natural gas imported into the third region. The average load rate of the natural gas receiving stations in the third region satisfies the following formula 9:

[0085] R Hi =Q Hi / A Hi Formula 9

[0086] Among them, R Hi A represents the average load rate of the receiving station in the third region in year i; Hi represents the receiving capacity of the natural gas receiving stations in the three regions in year i.

[0087] The receiving capacity of the natural gas receiving station in the third region in year i can be obtained as known data through information statistics of the receiving station.

[0088] In one possible implementation, the load rates of natural gas receiving stations of different entities within the target area are determined based on the load rates of natural gas receiving stations within the target area;

[0089] Among them, according to the average load rate of different operating entities of the receiving station, they are divided into the first entity, the second entity, and the third entity from large to small.

[0090] Among them, the receiving stations operated by the first entity, the second entity and the third entity are distributed in the first area, the second area and the third area.

[0091] Furthermore, the load rates of the natural gas receiving stations of the first entity, the second entity, and the third entity in the first area are determined.

[0092] Specifically, the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the first entity in the first region satisfies the following formula 10:

[0093]

[0094] in, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the first entity in the first region in year i, R Hi is the average load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the first region in year i, and M is a constant.

[0095] The natural gas receiving station load rate of the second operating entity in the first region satisfies the following formula 11:

[0096]

[0097] in, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the second operating entity in the first region in year i, R Hi is the average load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the first region in year i, and N is a constant.

[0098] The load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the third operating entity in the first area satisfies the following formula 12:

[0099]

[0100] in, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the third operating entity in the first region in year i, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the first entity in the first region in year i, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the second operating entity in the first region in year i, Indicates the receiving capacity of the first business entity's receiving station in the first region, Indicates the receiving capacity of the second business entity's receiving station in the first area, It indicates the receiving capacity of the natural gas receiving station of the third operating entity in the first area.

[0101] Furthermore, the load rates of the natural gas receiving stations of the first entity, the second entity, and the third entity in the second area are determined.

[0102] Specifically, the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the first entity in the second area satisfies the following formula 13:

[0103]

[0104] in, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the first entity in the second region in year i, R Ciis the average load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the second region in year i, and M is a constant.

[0105] The natural gas receiving station load rate of the second operating entity in the second area satisfies the following formula 14:

[0106]

[0107] in, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the second operating entity in the second region in year i, R Ci is the average load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the second region in year i, and N is a constant.

[0108] The load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the third operating entity in the second area satisfies the following formula 15:

[0109]

[0110] in, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the third operating entity in the second region in year i, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the first entity in the second region in year i, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the second operating entity in the second region in year i, Indicates the receiving capacity of the first operating entity's receiving station in the second area, Indicates the receiving capacity of the second business entity's receiving station in the second area, It indicates the receiving capacity of the natural gas receiving station of the third operating entity in the second area.

[0111] Furthermore, the load rates of the natural gas receiving stations of the first entity, the second entity, and the third entity in the third area are determined.

[0112] Specifically, the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the first entity in the third area satisfies the following formula 16:

[0113]

[0114] in, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the first entity in the third region in year i, R Di is the average load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the third region in year i, and M is a constant.

[0115] The natural gas receiving station load rate of the second operating entity in the third area satisfies the following formula 17:

[0116]

[0117] in, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the second operating entity in the third region in year i, R Di is the average load rate of the natural gas receiving station in the third region in year i, and N is a constant.

[0118] Among them, the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the third operating entity in the third area satisfies the following formula 18:

[0119]

[0120] in, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the third operating entity in the third region in year i, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the first entity in the third region in year i, represents the load rate of the natural gas receiving station of the second operating entity in the third region in year i, Indicates the receiving capacity of the first operating entity's receiving station in the third area, Indicates the receiving capacity of the second operating entity's receiving station in the third area, It indicates the receiving capacity of the natural gas receiving station of the third operating entity in the third area.

[0121] Furthermore, the first natural gas import volume in the target area can be determined based on the load rates of the natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in different areas. The first natural gas import volume satisfies the following formula 19:

[0122]

[0123] in, represents the first natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the target area; represents the receiving capacity of natural gas receiving station X in the target area in year i; represents the load rate of natural gas receiving station X in the target area in year i.

[0124] S202: Determine the type of the natural gas receiving station according to the natural gas receiving station information, and determine the second natural gas import volume according to the type of the natural gas receiving station and the first natural gas import volume.

[0125] In one possible implementation, different types of natural gas receiving stations are determined based on the natural gas receiving station information; and based on the different types of natural gas receiving stations and the natural gas import volumes of natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in the target area, a second natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area during the first time period is determined.

[0126] Among them, according to the different types of receiving stations and different operating entities, the built and planned receiving stations are divided into three types: locked long-term contract receiving stations, other under-construction and planned receiving stations, and other built receiving stations. The natural gas import volume is predicted according to the type of receiving station.

[0127] In one example, a natural gas receiving station is a long-term contract receiving station. Although this type of receiving station has locked in long-term contract volumes, it supplements spot purchases by considering that market demand at each receiving station may exceed the long-term contract volume. The configured volume of the receiving station is the maximum between the long-term contract volume and the supply volume calculated based on the load rate. The natural gas import volume of the long-term contract receiving station satisfies the following formula:

[0128] Locked long-term contract receiving station annual supply volume = max{long-term contract volume, supply volume calculated by load factor method}

[0129] Among them, the long-term contract volume is obtained by statistics from authoritative agencies or receiving station business plans.

[0130] Among them, the load rate method for calculating supply volume satisfies the above formula 19.

[0131] In another example, the natural gas receiving station type is other receiving stations under construction or planned. For these other receiving stations under construction or planned, considering the gradual development of their supply market needs, the load rate of the natural gas receiving station will be temporarily increased at a rate of 10% per year and continued until it reaches the target load rate set by the receiving station. For example: the planned station load rate is 10% in the first year, 20% in the second year, and so on, 10% × N in the Nth year, and the maximum load rate does not exceed the configured load rate of the receiving station. The 10% annual average growth rate can be adjusted according to actual conditions. The natural gas import volume of other natural gas receiving stations under construction and planned shall meet the following formula:

[0132] The natural gas import volume of other natural gas receiving stations under construction and planned = annual receiving capacity of the receiving station × annual configuration load rate of the receiving station.

[0133] In another example, the type of the natural gas receiving station is other existing natural gas receiving stations.

[0134] Among them, other built natural gas receiving stations are divided into other built natural gas receiving stations with an operation time of less than five years and other built receiving stations with an operation time of five years or more.

[0135] The following is an explanation of the natural gas import volumes of the two types of natural gas receiving stations:

[0136] 2-1. Other existing natural gas receiving stations that have been in operation for less than five years

[0137] The import volume of other existing natural gas receiving stations shall be the maximum value between the import volume of the previous year and the supply volume calculated based on the configured load rate. The natural gas import volume of other existing natural gas receiving stations shall meet the following formula 20:

[0138] Natural gas import volume of other existing natural gas receiving stations = max {import volume of the previous year, supply volume calculated by load factor method} Formula 20

[0139] Among them, the load rate method for calculating supply volume satisfies the above formula 19.

[0140] 2-2. Other existing natural gas receiving stations that have been in operation for five years or more

[0141] Specifically, by combining the historical five-year supply data of natural gas receiving stations that have been in operation for five years or more and using a metabolic model for forecasting analysis, we can obtain the resource import volume of other existing receiving stations in the next five years. The specific calculation method is as follows:

[0142] Construct a five-year historical data series of the annual receiving volume of a certain natural gas receiving station:

[0143] Q (0) =(Q (0) (1), Q (0) (2), Q (0) (3), Q (0) (4), Q (0) (5));

[0144] Construct a one-time cumulative generation sequence of its received amount:

[0145] Q (1) =(Q (1) (1), Q (1) (2), Q (1) (3), Q (1) (4), Q (1) (5));

[0146] in k=1,2,3,4,5.

[0147] At the same time, construct the mean generating sequence:

[0148] Z (1) =(Z (1) (2), Z (1) (3), Z (1) (4), Z (1) (5));

[0149] where Z (1) (t)=(Q (1) (t-1)+Q (1)(t)) / 2, t=2,3,4,5.

[0150] Based on the cumulative generation sequence, a first-order linear differential equation is constructed to satisfy the following formula 21:

[0151]

[0152] Among them, a and b are the parameters to be estimated. The sequence Q can be generated by accumulation through the least square method or other statistical methods. (1) and the original received quantity series Q (0) To estimate parameters a and b, construct matrices and vectors, and perform linear regression to obtain parameter values.

[0153]

[0154]

[0155] Use the least squares method to calculate the estimated values of parameters a and b Substituting it into the first-order linear ordinary differential equation and performing cumulative reduction on the result, we can obtain the received quantity data sequence, which satisfies the following formula 22:

[0156]

[0157] Based on the metabolic prediction principle, in the original data sequence, the latest data Q predicted by the model (0) (6), while removing the old data Q of the original data (0) (1) to keep the dimension of the data sequence unchanged. Then use the latest import volume data sequence (Q (0) (2), Q (0) (3), Q (0) (4), Q (0) (5), Q (0) (6) Then use the above model to predict the next value Q (0) (7) and add it to the data sequence and remove Q (0) (2), and so on, predict one by one,

[0158] Substitute in turn, constantly add new information, so that the gray level of the import volume data series gradually decreases until the prediction target is reached, and the import volume data series (Q (0) (6), Q (0) (7), Q (0) (8), Q (0) (9), Q (0) (10)), that is, the annual receiving capacity of other existing natural gas receiving stations that have been in operation for five years or more in the next five years.

[0159] S203: Determine a third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station within a second time period based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume.

[0160] The second time period refers to a time period that is after the first time period and before the preset time period.

[0161] In one possible implementation, the third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the target area within the second time period is determined by data linear interpolation method based on the first natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the target area after a preset time and the second natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the target area within the first time period.

[0162] In one example, the import volume of the target natural gas receiving station in the next 6-10 years is obtained by linear interpolation of the forecast data for the fifth year and the forecast data for the 11th year.

[0163] Among them, the target natural gas receiving station is the natural gas receiving station used for the natural gas import volume analysis here.

[0164] The import volume of the target natural gas receiving station in the fifth year is obtained based on step S202, that is, Q (0) (10).

[0165] The import volume of the target natural gas receiving station in the 11th year is obtained based on step S201, and the import volume in the 11th year satisfies the following formula 23:

[0166]

[0167] Furthermore, the import volume of the target natural gas receiving station in the 6th to 10th year satisfies the following formula 24:

[0168]

[0169] Where i=6, 7, 8, 9, 10.

[0170] in, is the third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the target area during the second time period.

[0171] S204: predict the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in a target time period after the current time period based on the first natural gas import volume, the second natural gas import volume, and the actual total natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the target area.

[0172] In one possible implementation, the first and second natural gas import volumes can be input into a natural gas import volume forecasting model to determine the total predicted natural gas import volume for the target region. The difference between the actual total natural gas import volume and the predicted total natural gas import volume is then allocated to determine the natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station for a target time period following the current time period.

[0173] The natural gas import volume prediction model is used to predict natural gas import volume. This natural gas import volume prediction model can be obtained by training natural gas import data within the target area based on a preset algorithm. The preset algorithm can be a neural network algorithm, but other algorithms are also possible and are not limited to this. Furthermore, based on the comparison of the predicted natural gas import volume within the target area with the natural gas import volume within the target area obtained in S101, the difference between the predicted natural gas import volume within the target area and the natural gas import volume within the target area is allocated to the natural gas receiving stations within the target area using a proportion method, completing the final allocation of the import volume for the natural gas receiving stations within the target area, and outputting the natural gas import volume for the target time period following the current time period.

[0174] Specifically, the natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area is calculated according to S201 and S202 and summed up to obtain the predicted natural gas import volume Q in the target area. a ', according to the method in S101, the natural gas import volume Q in the target area is obtained a .

[0175] The natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the target time period after the current time period satisfies the following Formula 25 and Formula 26:

[0176]

[0177] θ=Q a -Q a Formula 26

[0178] Where θ represents the difference between the predicted natural gas import volume in the target area and the natural gas import volume in the target area; Q a represents the natural gas import volume in the target area; Q a ' represents the forecast natural gas import volume in the target area.

[0179] Among them, the proportion satisfies the following formula twenty-seven:

[0180]

[0181] When the difference θ between the predicted natural gas import volume in the target area and the natural gas import volume in the target area is not 0, step S204 is repeated until the difference θ is 0.

[0182] At this time, the natural gas import volume of the output natural gas receiving station in the target time period after the current time period

[0183] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a natural gas import quantity determination device provided in an embodiment of the present application. Figure 3 As shown, the natural gas import quantity determining device 30 can be used to perform Figure 1 The method for determining the amount of natural gas imports is shown in FIG. The natural gas import amount determination device 30 includes: an acquisition module 301 and a determination module 302 .

[0184] An acquisition module 301 is configured to acquire the total actual natural gas import volume within a target area during a current time period and the historical natural gas load of natural gas receiving stations within the target area;

[0185] Determination module 302 is configured to determine a first natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in a target area after a preset period of time based on the actual total natural gas import volume and the historical natural gas load of the natural gas receiving station, and to determine a second natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in a first time period, where the first time period is after the current time period.

[0186] The determination module 302 is further configured to predict the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in a target time period after the current time period based on the first natural gas import volume, the second natural gas import volume, and the actual total natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the target area.

[0187] In one possible implementation, in determination module 302, the first natural gas import volume is determined in the following manner: based on the total amount of natural gas and the historical natural gas load of each natural gas receiving station, an average load rate of multiple natural gas receiving stations in the target area after a preset period of time is determined; based on the average load rate of multiple natural gas receiving stations in the target area, the load rate of natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in the target area is determined; and based on the load rates of natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in the target area, the corresponding first natural gas import volume is determined.

[0188] In one possible implementation, the determination module 302 determines, for each natural gas receiving station, the second natural gas import volume by: determining the type of the natural gas receiving station based on the natural gas receiving station information; and determining the second natural gas import volume based on the type of the natural gas receiving station and the first natural gas import volume.

[0189] In one possible implementation, in determination module 302, for each natural gas receiving station, the method further includes: determining a third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station within a second time period based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station; the second time period is located after the first time period, and the length of the first time period and the length of the second time period are less than a preset time length.

[0190] In one possible implementation, determination module 302 determines a third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station during the second time period based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume, including performing linear interpolation on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume to obtain the third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station during the second time period.

[0191] In one possible implementation, determination module 302 predicts the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in a target time period following a current time period based on the first natural gas import volume, the second natural gas import volume, and the actual total natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area. This includes: determining the predicted total natural gas import volume within the target area based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume; and coordinating and allocating the difference between the actual total natural gas import volume and the predicted total natural gas import volume to obtain the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in the target time period following the current time period.

[0192] Through the description of the above embodiments, those skilled in the art will clearly understand that for the sake of convenience and brevity, only the division of the above functional modules is used as an example. In actual applications, the above functions can be assigned to different functional modules as needed, that is, the internal structure of the device can be divided into different functional modules to complete all or part of the functions described above. The specific working processes of the above-described systems, devices, and units can refer to the corresponding processes in the aforementioned method embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0193] The present disclosure also provides a computer-readable storage medium having instructions stored thereon. When the instructions in the storage medium are executed by a processor of an electronic device, the electronic device is enabled to execute the method for determining the gas pipeline construction time provided in the above-mentioned embodiment of the present disclosure.

[0194] The embodiments of the present disclosure further provide a computer program product comprising instructions, which, when executed on an electronic device, enables the electronic device to execute the pipeline detection method provided by the embodiments of the present disclosure.

[0195] Among them, the computer-readable storage medium can be, for example, but not limited to, an electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, device or device, or any combination thereof. More specific examples of computer-readable storage media (a non-exhaustive list) include: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM), a register, a hard disk, an optical fiber, a portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above, or any other form of computer-readable storage medium known in the art. An exemplary storage medium is coupled to a processor so that the processor can read information from the storage medium and write information to the storage medium. Of course, the storage medium can also be an integral part of the processor. The processor and the storage medium can be located in an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC). In the embodiments of the present application, a computer-readable storage medium may be any tangible medium that contains or stores a program that can be used by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.

[0196] The above are only specific embodiments of the present application, but the scope of protection of this application is not limited thereto. Any changes or substitutions that can be easily conceived by a person skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed in this application should be included in the scope of protection of this application. Therefore, the scope of protection of this application should be based on the scope of protection of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for determining the amount of natural gas imports, characterized in that: The method further comprises: Obtaining the total actual natural gas import volume within the target area during the current time period and the historical natural gas load of the natural gas receiving stations within the target area; determining, based on the actual total natural gas import volume and the historical natural gas load of the natural gas receiving station, a first natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in the target area after a preset period of time, and determining a second natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station within a first time period, wherein the first time period is after the current time period; The natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in a target time period after the current time period is predicted based on the first natural gas import volume, the second natural gas import volume and the actual total natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the target area.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The first natural gas import volume is determined by: determining, based on the total natural gas volume and historical natural gas load conditions of the natural gas receiving stations, an average load rate of multiple natural gas receiving stations within the target area after the preset period of time; determining the load rates of natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities within the target area based on an average load rate of multiple natural gas receiving stations within the target area; The first natural gas import volume corresponding to each of the natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in the target area is determined according to the load rates of the natural gas receiving stations of different operating entities in the target area.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein For each natural gas receiving station, the second natural gas import volume is determined by: determining the type of the natural gas receiving station according to the natural gas receiving station information; The second natural gas import volume is determined according to the type of the natural gas receiving station and the first natural gas import volume.

4. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that For each natural gas receiving station, the method further includes: The third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in a second time period is determined based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station; the second time period is located after the first time period, and the duration of the first time period and the duration of the second time period are less than the preset duration.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that Determining a third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station within a second time period based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume includes: Linear interpolation is performed on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume to obtain a third natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station during the second time period.

6. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that The predicting, based on the first natural gas import volume, the second natural gas import volume, and the total actual natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving stations in the target area, the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in a target time period after the current time period includes: determining a predicted total natural gas import volume within the target area based on the first natural gas import volume and the second natural gas import volume; The difference between the actual total natural gas import amount and the predicted total natural gas import amount is coordinated and allocated to obtain the natural gas import amount of each natural gas receiving station in a target time period after the current time period.

7. A device for determining the amount of natural gas imports, characterized in that: The natural gas import quantity determining device comprises: An acquisition module, configured to acquire the total actual natural gas import volume within a target area during a current time period and historical natural gas load information of natural gas receiving stations within the target area; a determination module configured to determine, based on the actual total natural gas import volume and historical natural gas load conditions of the natural gas receiving stations, a first natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station in the target area after a preset period of time, and to determine a second natural gas import volume for each natural gas receiving station within a first time period, wherein the first time period is after the current time period; The determination module is further configured to predict the natural gas import volume of each natural gas receiving station in a target time period after the current time period based on the first natural gas import volume, the second natural gas import volume, and the total actual natural gas import volume of the natural gas receiving station in the target area.

8. An electronic device, characterized in that: The method comprises a memory and a processor; the memory and the processor are coupled; the memory is used to store instructions executable by the processor; and when the processor executes the instructions, the method for determining the natural gas import amount according to any one of claims 1 to 6 is executed.

9. A computer storage medium, characterized in that The computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions, and when the computer instructions are executed on an electronic device, the electronic device executes the method for determining the natural gas import amount according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

10. A computer program product, characterized in that When the computer program product runs on a natural gas import quantity determination device, the natural gas import quantity determination device is enabled to perform the natural gas import quantity determination method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

Images