Emergency material guarantee evaluation method for coping with emergencies

Abstract

The invention discloses an emergency material guarantee evaluation method for coping with emergencies, and relates to the technical field of emergency guarantee, and the method comprises the steps: collecting single emergency material demand data per month according to a cycle of n years for x to-be-assessed emergency materials in a designated region, and constructing a matrix; calculating a historical consumption maximum value, a historical consumption minimum value and an expected value of the single emergency material matrix according to months by combining different scenes on the basis of the single emergency material matrix; based on the actual consumption / historical consumption expected value, the historical consumption maximum value and the historical consumption minimum value of the single emergency material in the y month, the guarantee capability original score / basic guarantee capability original score of the single emergency material is calculated; according to the size relation of the two original scores, calculating a final score through a piecewise function; by executing the above steps, the final score of the x emergency materials in the designated area is obtained through calculation, and the overall emergency guarantee capability score of the designated area in y months is obtained through averaging and normalization calculation according to a preset denominator. The emergency guarantee capability of each region can be realized.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of emergency support, in particular to an emergency material support evaluation method for coping with emergencies. BACKGROUND

[0002] With the rapid development of industrialization, the current development status of emergency material support system can be summarized from the following aspects.

[0003] 1. The material reserve system is gradually improved: a multi-level material reserve system is established. In terms of reserve variety, quantity and regional distribution, scientific and reasonable layout and dynamic adjustment are gradually realized.

[0004] 2. The material management mechanism is continuously optimized: in terms of material management mechanism, through continuous optimization and improvement of the corresponding management system and process, the scheduling and management of emergency materials are strengthened. Through the establishment of information platform and intelligent management system, the efficiency and accuracy of emergency material management are improved.

[0005] 3. The material procurement capacity is continuously improved: in terms of material procurement capacity, through continuous improvement of the procurement capacity of emergency materials, cooperation and communication with suppliers are strengthened, and stable supply channels and emergency procurement mechanisms are established.

[0006] 4. The material distribution capacity is continuously strengthened: in terms of material distribution capacity, through continuous strengthening of the distribution capacity of emergency materials, emergency logistics network and distribution system are established, and the speed and efficiency of material delivery to disaster areas are improved.

[0007] 5. The material use supervision is continuously strengthened: in terms of material use supervision, through continuous strengthening of the supervision and supervision of the use of emergency materials, the corresponding supervision system and process are established, and the reasonable use and maximum benefit of emergency materials are ensured.

[0008] However, although the current emergency material support system has made some progress, it still faces many problems and challenges. Among them, the field of emergency material support evaluation still has significant shortcomings, and relevant research and practice are relatively scarce, and further development and improvement are needed. SUMMARY

[0009] The present application provides an emergency material support evaluation method for coping with emergencies in response to the needs and deficiencies of current technology development, which quantifies and evaluates emergency support capacity to reduce the impact of disasters on society and economy.

[0010] The technical solution adopted by the emergency material support evaluation method for coping with emergencies of the present application to solve the above technical problems is as follows:

[0011] An emergency material support evaluation method for coping with emergencies, comprising the following steps:

[0012] S1, for x kinds of emergency materials to be evaluated in a specified area, collect single emergency material demand data every month for n years, and construct a demand data matrix A with n rows and y columns, where y represents the specific month;

[0013] S2, based on the single emergency material demand data matrix A, combined with weather, legal holidays and major activities, calculate the historical maximum, minimum and expected value of single emergency material consumption per month;

[0014] S3, based on the actual consumption of single emergency material in month y, the historical maximum and minimum consumption, calculate its original score of guarantee ability through the normalization formula, and constrain the score range between 0 and 1;

[0015] S4, based on the historical maximum, minimum and expected value of single emergency material in month y, calculate its original score of basic guarantee ability through the normalization formula, and constrain the score range between 0 and 1;

[0016] S5, according to the size relationship between the original score of guarantee ability and the original score of basic guarantee ability, calculate the final score through piecewise function;

[0017] S6, through the execution of steps S3-S5, the final score of x kinds of emergency materials to be evaluated in the specified area is calculated, and the multi- emergency material guarantee ability evaluation coverage is realized;

[0018] S7, based on the final score of x kinds of emergency materials in specified month y, calculate the overall emergency guarantee ability score of the specified area in month y by averaging and normalizing according to the preset denominator.

[0019] Optionally, step S1 specifically comprises:

[0020] S1.1, analyze the demand for emergency materials in the specified area, and determine the types of emergency materials to be evaluated as x; the time dimension is set to n years, and each month is a data collection period;

[0021] S1.2, for each kind of emergency material, collect its demand data in 1-12 months of each year in n years;

[0022] S1.3, fill in the demand data of single emergency material by row and column, and finally form a matrix A with n x y dimensions, which is used for structured storage and analysis of historical monthly demand rules of single material.

[0023] Optionally, step S2 is performed to extract the data of a specific emergency material a in the matrix A for the column where month y is located for n years, and the maximum historical consumption of emergency material a in all month y in n years is calculated using the following formula: Historical minimum consumption and the expected value of historical consumption a y :

[0024]

[0025] a y =(a 1y +a 2y +…+a iy +…+a ny ) / n,

[0026] In the formula, a represents a specific type of emergency supplies; a iy Represents the historical consumption of emergency supplies a in month y of year i; and Determine the consumption range of emergency supplies a in month y each year Through a y It serves as a reference for the regular reserve of emergency material a in month y, and assists in making reserve quantity decisions.

[0027] Further optionally, step S3 specifically includes:

[0028] S3.1. Obtain the actual consumption a^ and historical maximum consumption of a single emergency material a in month y. and historical consumption minimum

[0029] S3.2. Use the following formula to calculate the original score E of the support capability of a single emergency material a in month y. ay , and constrain the score range to be between 0 and 1, ensuring the original score of the capability E ay Used to reflect the relative position of actual consumption in the historical period:

[0030]

[0031] Further optionally, step S4 specifically includes:

[0032] S4.1. Obtain the expected historical consumption value a of a single emergency material a in month y y , historical maximum consumption and historical consumption minimum

[0033] S4.2. Use the following formula to calculate the basic support capability raw score e for a single emergency material a in month y. ay, and restrict the score range between 0 and 1, the original score of basic security capability e ay For quantifying the basic security demand in the regular scenario, the higher the value is, the closer the historical mean is to the high demand, and the greater the basic security pressure is:

[0034]

[0035] Further optionally, step S5 is performed to calculate the final score F by the following piecewise function: ay :

[0036]

[0037] Preferably, according to the calculated final score F ay , four levels of security degrees of “excellent, good, general and poor” are designed:

[0038] When the final score F ay is equal to 2, the security degree of the emergency material a in the yth month is determined as excellent;

[0039] When the final score F ay is less than 2 and greater than or equal to 1, the security degree of the emergency material a in the yth month is determined as good;

[0040] When the final score F ay is less than 1 and greater than 0, the security degree of the emergency material a in the yth month is determined as general;

[0041] When the final score F ay is equal to 0, the security degree of the emergency material a in the yth month is determined as poor.

[0042] Further optionally, step S7 is performed to calculate the overall emergency security capability score F ay of the specified region in the yth month by averaging and normalizing according to a preset denominator based on the final scores F y of x kinds of emergency materials in the yth month:

[0043] F y = (F ay +F by +…+F xy ) / (2*x),

[0044] In the formula, a, b and x represent different kinds of emergency materials, and y represents the specified month, which is specifically selected from 1 to 12.

[0045] Preferably, according to the overall emergency security capability score F y of the specified region in the yth month, four levels of emergency security capability evaluation results of “excellent, good, general and poor” are designed:

[0046] When the emergency security capability score Fy When it is equal to 2, the overall emergency support capability of the designated area is assessed as excellent;

[0047] When the emergency support capability score is F y When it is less than 2 and greater than or equal to 1, the overall emergency support capability of the designated area is assessed as good;

[0048] When the emergency support capability score is F y When it is less than 1 and greater than 0, the overall emergency support capability of the designated area is assessed as average;

[0049] When the emergency support capability score is F y When it is equal to 0, the overall emergency support capability of the designated area is assessed as poor.

[0050] The present invention provides an emergency material support assessment method for responding to emergencies, which has the following beneficial effects compared with the prior art:

[0051] 1. This invention calculates the emergency support capability score based on the historical consumption of a single emergency material, and then calculates the overall emergency support capability score based on the historical consumption of all types of emergency materials in a region. A four-level emergency support capability assessment is designed to facilitate understanding of a region's emergency support capability level. This establishes a comprehensive government emergency command and support system to effectively strengthen the emergency support capabilities of each region, eliminate or reduce casualties or losses in the event of an emergency, and minimize losses caused by an emergency.

[0052] 2. The present invention can pre-control the development of events, eliminate dangerous and hazardous factors, and thus buy precious time for saving lives; it can greatly enhance emergency rescue support capabilities and achieve rational allocation and effective utilization of resources; finally, improving emergency support capabilities can reduce the impact of disasters on society and the economy, and efficient emergency response can reduce the impact of disasters on infrastructure, commercial activities and communities, thereby reducing the impact of disasters on society and the economy. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0053] Attachment Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the method of embodiment 1 of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0054] In order to make the technical solution, the technical problems solved and the technical effects of the present invention more clear, the technical solution of the present invention is clearly and completely described below in conjunction with specific embodiments.

[0055] Example:

[0056] Combined with attachment Figure 1 This embodiment provides a method for assessing emergency supplies for emergencies, which includes the following steps:

[0057] S1, for x kinds of emergency materials to be evaluated in a specified region, collect single emergency material demand data every month for a period of n years, and construct a demand data matrix A with n rows and y columns, where y represents the specific month. The implementation of this process specifically needs to perform the following operations:

[0058] S1.1, analyze the emergency material demand of the specified region, determine the types of emergency materials to be evaluated as x, determine the time dimension, and take n years as the analysis period, and each month as a separate data collection period for collecting emergency material demand related data;

[0059] S1.2, for each kind of emergency material, collect its demand data from January to December of each year in n years;

[0060] S1.3, fill in the demand data of a single emergency material by row and column, and finally form a matrix A with n x y dimensions, which is used to structure the storage and analysis of the historical monthly demand rules of a single material.

[0061] Taking emergency material a as an example, the final matrix A is shown below:

[0062]

[0063] Where the row represents the year and the column represents the month.

[0064] S2, based on the single emergency material demand data matrix A, combined with weather, statutory holidays and major activities, calculate the historical consumption maximum, minimum and expected value of a single emergency material by month.

[0065] This step is for the data of emergency material a in matrix A, extracts the n-year data of the column where y month (y takes a specific value from 1-12) is located, and calculates the historical consumption maximum of emergency material a in all y months of n years through the following formula Historical consumption minimum And the historical consumption expected value a y :

[0066]

[0067] a y =(a 1y +a 2y +…+a iy +…+a ny ) / n,

[0068] In the formula, a represents a specific kind of emergency material; a iy represents the historical consumption of emergency material a in the i-th year and the y-th month; through And Determine the consumption range interval of emergency supplies a in each year y month By a y As the regular reserve reference value of emergency supplies a in y month, auxiliary reserve amount decision.

[0069] S3, based on the actual consumption of single emergency supplies in y month, the maximum and minimum of historical consumption, calculate its guarantee ability original score through normalization formula, and constrain the score range between 0 to 1. The implementation of this process needs to perform the following operations:

[0070] S3.1, get the actual consumption of single emergency supplies a in y month a^, the maximum of historical consumption And the minimum of historical consumption

[0071] S3.2, calculate the guarantee ability original score E of single emergency supplies a in y month using the following formula ay , and constrain the score range between 0 to 1, guarantee ability original score E ay Reflect the relative position of actual consumption in historical interval:

[0072]

[0073] S4, based on the maximum, minimum and expected value of historical consumption of single emergency supplies in y month, calculate its basic guarantee ability original score through normalization formula, and constrain the score range between 0 to 1. The implementation of this process needs to perform the following operations:

[0074] S4.1, get the expected value of historical consumption of single emergency supplies a in y month a y , the maximum of historical consumption And the minimum of historical consumption

[0075] S4.2, calculate the basic guarantee ability original score e of single emergency supplies a in y month using the following formula ay , and constrain the score range between 0 to 1, basic guarantee ability original score e ay Quantify the basic guarantee demand in regular scenario, the higher the value, the closer the historical mean to high demand, the greater the basic guarantee pressure:

[0076]

[0077] S5, according to the size relationship between guarantee ability original score and basic guarantee ability original score, calculate the final score through piecewise function.

[0078] Specifically, the final score F is calculated by the following piecewise function ay :

[0079]

[0080] According to the final score F ay , the four levels of guarantee degree of "excellent, good, general and poor" are designed:

[0081] When the final score F ay is equal to 2, the guarantee degree of emergency materials a in y month is determined to be excellent;

[0082] When the final score F ay is less than 2 and greater than or equal to 1, the guarantee degree of emergency materials a in y month is determined to be good;

[0083] When the final score F ay is less than 1 and greater than 0, the guarantee degree of emergency materials a in y month is determined to be general;

[0084] When the final score F ay is equal to 0, the guarantee degree of emergency materials a in y month is determined to be poor.

[0085] S6, by executing steps S3-S5, the final score F xy of x kinds of emergency materials to be evaluated in the specified area is calculated, and the guarantee capacity evaluation of multiple emergency materials is realized.

[0086] S7, based on the final score of x kinds of emergency materials in the specified y month, the overall emergency guarantee capacity score of the specified area in y month is calculated by averaging and normalizing according to the preset denominator. The implementation of this process specifically needs to perform the following operations:

[0087] Based on the final score F ay of x kinds of emergency materials in the specified y month, the overall emergency guarantee capacity score F y of the specified area in y month is calculated by averaging and normalizing according to the preset denominator:

[0088] F y = (F ay +F by +…+F xy ) / (2*x),

[0089] In the formula, a, b, x represent different kinds of emergency materials, and y represents the specified month, which is specifically selected from 1-12;

[0090] Preferably, according to the overall emergency guarantee capacity score F y of the specified area in y month, the four levels of emergency guarantee capacity evaluation results of "excellent, good, general and poor" are designed:

[0091] When the emergency guarantee capacity score F yEqual to 2, the overall emergency guarantee capacity of the designated area is evaluated as excellent;

[0092] When the emergency guarantee capacity score F y Less than 2 and greater than or equal to 1, the overall emergency guarantee capacity of the designated area is evaluated as good;

[0093] When the emergency guarantee capacity score F y Less than 1 and greater than 0, the overall emergency guarantee capacity of the designated area is evaluated as general;

[0094] When the emergency guarantee capacity score F y Equal to 0, the overall emergency guarantee capacity of the designated area is evaluated as poor.

[0095] As can be seen from the above, the emergency material guarantee evaluation method for coping with emergencies of the present application calculates the emergency guarantee capacity score of a single emergency material through the historical consumption amount of the single emergency material, and then calculates the overall emergency guarantee capacity score of a certain area through the historical consumption amount of all kinds of emergency materials in the certain area, and designs four-level emergency guarantee capacity evaluation results, so as to facilitate understanding of the emergency guarantee capacity level of a certain area, effectively strengthen the emergency guarantee capacity of each area, eliminate or reduce the number of casualties when a sudden event occurs, or reduce the loss caused by the sudden event, build a comprehensive government emergency command guarantee system, and eliminate the short board existing in the field of emergency material guarantee evaluation.

[0096] The principles and implementation modes of the present application are described in detail above by using specific examples, and these examples are only used to help understand the core technical content of the present application. Based on the above specific embodiments of the present application, any improvement and modification of the present application made by the person skilled in the art without departing from the principles of the present application shall fall within the patent protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for assessing emergency supplies for emergencies, characterized in that: The steps include: S1. For x types of emergency supplies to be assessed in a designated area, collect demand data for a single emergency supply every month for n years and construct a demand data matrix A with n rows and y columns, where y represents the specific month. S2. Based on the single emergency material demand data matrix A, and taking into account three scenarios: weather, statutory holidays, and major events, calculate the historical maximum, minimum, and expected consumption of a single emergency material by month; S3. Based on the actual consumption, historical maximum and minimum consumption of a single emergency material in month y, calculate its original support capability score using a normalized formula and constrain the score range to be between 0 and 1; S4. Based on the historical maximum, minimum, and expected consumption of a single emergency material in month y, calculate its basic support capability raw score using a normalized formula, and constrain the score range to be between 0 and 1; S5. Calculate the final score using a piecewise function based on the relationship between the original score of the support capability and the original score of the basic support capability; S6. By executing steps S3-S5, the final scores of the x types of emergency supplies to be assessed in the specified area are calculated, thereby achieving coverage of the assessment of the support capacity of multiple emergency supplies; S7. Based on the final scores of x types of emergency supplies in a specified month y, the overall emergency support capability score of the specified region in month y is obtained by averaging and normalizing according to the preset denominator.

2. The method for assessing emergency supplies for emergencies according to claim 1, wherein: The step S1 specifically includes: S1.

1. Analyze the emergency material needs in the designated area and determine the type of emergency material to be assessed as x. Set the time dimension to n years, with each month as a data collection cycle. S1.

2. For each type of emergency supplies, collect demand data from January to December each year over n years; S1.

3. With the row dimension corresponding to the year and the column dimension corresponding to the month, fill in the demand data of a single emergency material row by row and column by column, and finally form an n×y-dimensional matrix A for structured storage and analysis of the historical monthly demand patterns of a single material.

3. The method for evaluating emergency supplies for emergency response according to claim 2, wherein: Execute step S2. For the data of a specific emergency material a in matrix A, extract the data of the column where month y is located for n years, and calculate the maximum historical consumption of emergency material a in all month y in n years using the following formula: Historical minimum consumption and the expected value of historical consumption a y : a y =(a 1y +a 2y +…+a iy +…+a ny ) / n, In the formula, a represents a specific type of emergency supplies; a iy Represents the historical consumption of emergency supplies a in month y of year i; and Determine the consumption range of emergency supplies a in month y each year Through a y It serves as a reference for the regular reserve of emergency material a in month y, and assists in making reserve quantity decisions.

4. The method for assessing emergency supplies for emergencies according to claim 3, wherein: The step S3 specifically includes: S3.

1. Obtain the actual consumption a^ and historical maximum consumption of a single emergency material a in month y and historical consumption minimum S3.

2. Use the following formula to calculate the original score E of the support capability of a single emergency material a in month y. ay , and constrain the score range to be between 0 and 1, ensuring the original score of the capability E ay Used to reflect the relative position of actual consumption in the historical period:

5. The method for evaluating emergency supplies for emergency response according to claim 4, characterized in that: The step S4 specifically includes: S4.

1. Obtain the expected historical consumption value a of a single emergency material a in month y y , historical maximum consumption and historical consumption minimum S4.

2. Use the following formula to calculate the basic support capability raw score e for a single emergency material a in month y. ay , and constrain the score range to be between 0 and 1, the original score of basic support capability e ay Used to quantify the basic security needs in common scenarios. The higher the value, the closer the historical average is to the high demand, and the greater the basic security pressure:

6. The method for assessing emergency supplies for emergencies according to claim 5, wherein: Execute step S5 and calculate the final score F using the following piecewise function: ay :

7. The method for assessing emergency supplies for emergencies according to claim 8, wherein: Based on the calculated final score F ay , designing four levels of security: "excellent, good, fair and poor": When the final score F ay When it is equal to 2, the security level of emergency supplies a in month y is judged to be excellent; When the final score F ay When it is less than 2 and greater than or equal to 1, the security level of emergency supplies a in month y is judged to be good; When the final score F ay When it is less than 1 and greater than 0, the security level of emergency supplies a in month y is judged to be average; When the final score F ay When it is equal to 0, the security level of emergency supplies a in month y is judged to be poor.

8. The method for assessing emergency supplies for emergencies according to claim 6, wherein: Execute step S7, based on the final score F of x types of emergency supplies in the specified month y ay By averaging and normalizing according to the preset denominator, the overall emergency support capability score F of the designated area in month y is obtained. y : F y =(F ay +F by +…+F xy ) / (2*x), In the formula, a, b, and x represent different types of emergency supplies, and y represents the specified month, which can be a value from 1 to 12.

9. The method for assessing emergency supplies for emergencies according to claim 8, wherein: Based on the overall emergency support capability score F of the designated area in month y y , design the four-level emergency support capability assessment results of "excellent, good, fair and poor": When the emergency support capability score is F y When it is equal to 2, the overall emergency support capability of the designated area is assessed as excellent; When the emergency support capability score is F y When it is less than 2 and greater than or equal to 1, the overall emergency support capability of the designated area is assessed as good; When the emergency support capability score is F y When it is less than 1 and greater than 0, the overall emergency support capability of the designated area is assessed as average; When the emergency support capability score is F y When it is equal to 0, the overall emergency support capability of the designated area is assessed as poor.

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