Transformer substation disaster damage estimation method and device, computer equipment, storage medium and program product

Abstract

The invention relates to a transformer substation disaster damage estimation method and device, computer equipment, a storage medium and a program product. The method comprises the steps that collected disaster parameters are taken, and the target debris flow velocity, the target debris flow impact force and the target stone impact force are calculated according to the disaster parameters; obtaining a target impact force scale factor according to the target debris flow impact force and the target stone impact force; according to the target debris flow velocity, the target impact force scale factor and a target debris flow height in the disaster parameters, querying a target failure probability of each device from a three-dimensional vulnerability curved surface corresponding to each device in a pre-constructed transformer substation; the three-dimensional vulnerability curved surface is used for representing the mapping relation between the failure probability of the equipment and the debris flow velocity, the impact force scale factor and the debris flow height; and determining a disaster damage estimation value of the transformer substation based on the target failure probability of each device. By adopting the method, the disaster damage estimation efficiency can be improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of substation technology, and in particular to a method, apparatus, computer equipment, storage medium and program product for substation disaster loss estimation. Background Technology

[0002] As a critical hub in the power grid system, the safe, stable, and continuous operation of substations is fundamental to ensuring the reliability of regional power supply and the normal functioning of social production and daily life. However, substations are often built in mountainous areas, especially in geographically complex regions, inevitably exposing them to the direct threat of sudden geological disasters such as mudslides. Due to their suddenness, powerful impact, and the presence of massive amounts of solid material, mudslides can not only destroy substation walls and buildings, but also cause direct physical damage to core electrical equipment such as transformers, circuit breakers, and disconnect switches, leading to the paralysis of the entire substation, widespread power outages, and incalculable direct and indirect economic losses.

[0003] In traditional techniques, the assessment of debris flow disasters at substations usually involves post-disaster on-site investigation and loss statistics. That is, after the disaster occurs, an expert team enters the site to conduct a manual assessment of the equipment damage in the substation.

[0004] However, this method of evaluation by humans is inefficient. Summary of the Invention

[0005] Therefore, it is necessary to provide a substation disaster loss estimation method, device, computer equipment, storage medium, and program product that can improve the efficiency of disaster loss estimation in response to the above-mentioned technical problems.

[0006] Firstly, this application provides a method for estimating substation disaster damage. The method includes: acquiring collected disaster parameters and calculating the target debris flow velocity, target debris flow impact force, and target rock impact force based on the disaster parameters; obtaining a target impact force scaling factor based on the target debris flow impact force and target rock impact force; querying the target failure probability of each device from a pre-constructed three-dimensional vulnerability surface corresponding to each device in the substation based on the target debris flow velocity, target impact force scaling factor, and target debris flow height in the disaster parameters; the three-dimensional vulnerability surface is used to characterize the mapping relationship between the failure probability of the device and the debris flow velocity, impact force scaling factor, and debris flow height; and determining the estimated disaster damage value of the substation based on the target failure probability of each device.

[0007] In one embodiment, determining the estimated disaster loss of the substation based on the target failure probability of each device includes: for each device, obtaining the estimated disaster loss of the device based on the device's failure probability, residual value coefficient, and device price; and obtaining the estimated disaster loss of the substation based on the sum of the estimated disaster losses of all devices in the substation.

[0008] In one embodiment, the estimated disaster loss of the substation is obtained by summing the estimated disaster losses of all equipment in the substation, including: obtaining the estimated equipment disaster loss of the substation by summing the estimated disaster losses of all equipment in the substation; obtaining the estimated transportation disaster loss of the substation by summing the transportation costs of all equipment in the substation; obtaining the estimated repair disaster loss of the substation by summing the labor and material costs required to repair the substation; and obtaining the estimated disaster loss of the substation by summing the estimated equipment disaster loss, the estimated transportation disaster loss, and the estimated repair disaster loss.

[0009] In one embodiment, the disaster parameters include debris flow impact pressure; the step of calculating the target debris flow velocity based on the disaster parameters includes: multiplying the debris flow impact pressure, the equivalent projected area of ​​the equipment impacted, and the gravitational acceleration as a first value; multiplying the building shape factor, the specific gravity of the debris flow, and a sine value as a second value; the sine value is calculated by using the angle between the building's stress surface and the debris flow impact direction as a variable of a sin function; and using the ratio of the first value and the second value as a variable of a sqrt function to calculate the target debris flow velocity using the sqrt function.

[0010] In one embodiment, the step of calculating the target debris flow impact force based on disaster parameters includes: multiplying the debris flow impact pressure and the equivalent projected area of ​​the equipment being impacted as the target debris flow impact force.

[0011] In one embodiment, the disaster parameters include the volume of the stone; the step of calculating the impact force of the target stone based on the disaster parameters includes: obtaining the weight of the stone by multiplying the density of the stone and the volume of the stone; and obtaining the impact force of the target stone based on the elastic modulus of the engineering component, the moment of inertia of the central axis of the cross section of the engineering component, the length of the engineering component, the speed of the stone movement, the weight of the stone, and the sine value.

[0012] Secondly, this application also provides a substation disaster loss estimation device, which includes:

[0013] The acquisition module is used to acquire the collected disaster parameters and calculate the target debris flow velocity, target debris flow impact force, and target rock impact force based on the disaster parameters;

[0014] The first determining module is used to obtain the target impact force ratio factor based on the target debris flow impact force and the target rock impact force;

[0015] The query module is used to query the target failure probability of each piece of equipment from the three-dimensional vulnerability surface corresponding to each piece of equipment in the substation based on the target debris flow velocity, the target impact force scaling factor, and the target debris flow height in the disaster parameters. The three-dimensional vulnerability surface is used to characterize the mapping relationship between the failure probability of the equipment and the debris flow velocity, impact force scaling factor, and debris flow height.

[0016] The second determination module is used to determine the estimated disaster loss of the substation based on the target failure probability of each device.

[0017] Thirdly, this application also provides a computer device, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the method described in any one of the first aspects above.

[0018] Fourthly, this application also provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method described in any one of the first aspects above.

[0019] Fifthly, this application also provides a computer program product, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method described in any one of the first aspects above.

[0020] The aforementioned substation disaster damage estimation method, device, computer equipment, storage medium, and program product acquire collected disaster parameters and calculate the target debris flow velocity, target debris flow impact force, and target rock impact force based on these parameters. Then, based on the target debris flow impact force and target rock impact force, a target impact force scaling factor is obtained. Using the target debris flow velocity, target impact force scaling factor, and the target debris flow height from the disaster parameters, the target failure probability of each piece of equipment is retrieved from a pre-constructed three-dimensional vulnerability surface corresponding to each piece of equipment in the substation. Finally, the estimated disaster damage value of the substation is determined based on the target failure probability of each piece of equipment. This minimizes the need for manual investigation in the chaotic post-disaster environment, achieves automated disaster damage estimation, and improves the efficiency of disaster damage estimation. Attached Figure Description

[0021] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application or related technologies, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments of this application or related technologies will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of this application. For those skilled in the art, other related drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0022] Figure 1This is a schematic diagram of the substation disaster loss estimation system in one embodiment;

[0023] Figure 2 This is a flowchart illustrating a substation disaster loss estimation method in one embodiment;

[0024] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of a three-dimensional vulnerable surface with an impact force scaling factor of 0.5 in one embodiment;

[0025] Figure 4 This is a flowchart illustrating the substation disaster loss estimation method in another embodiment;

[0026] Figure 5 This is a structural block diagram of a substation disaster loss estimation device in one embodiment;

[0027] Figure 6 This is an internal structural diagram of a computer device in one embodiment. Detailed Implementation

[0028] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this application clearer, the following detailed description is provided in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative and not intended to limit the scope of this application.

[0029] It should be noted that the terms "first," "second," etc., used in this application can be used to describe various elements, but these elements are not limited by these terms. These terms are only used to distinguish the first element from the second element. The terms "comprising" and "having," and any variations thereof, used in this application, are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion. The term "multiple" used in this application refers to two or more. The term "and / or" used in this application refers to one of the embodiments, or any combination of multiple embodiments.

[0030] The substation disaster loss estimation method provided in this application embodiment can be applied to, for example, Figure 1 The substation damage estimation system shown is a computer device that communicates with an integrated board via a network. The computer device can be an existing industrial computer or server within the substation, deployed in the substation's central control room. Specifically, it can communicate with the integrated board via a switch. The computer device is equipped with specially developed "debris flow damage estimation software," which carries the core computational logic of this application. The computer device's hard drive serves as storage, used to store system parameters, historical data, and three-dimensional vulnerability surfaces.

[0031] The integrated board incorporates a height sensor, pressure sensor, 3D scanner, data preprocessing module, and communication module. It is installed on the outer perimeter wall of the substation or the exterior wall of a building, facing the main direction of the debris flow. This means the location should directly face the historical impact direction of upstream debris flows, with no obstructions, enabling it to detect and monitor incoming debris flows earliest. The integrated board is securely fixed to the wall, ensuring that the sensing surfaces of its height and pressure sensors face the expected flow direction. The 3D scanner's scanning field of view should cover a certain range of the passageway in front of the wall; a high-speed lidar can be used to quickly capture the volume of fast-moving rocks. The height sensor can be an ultrasonic level gauge or a laser rangefinder. The pressure sensor can be a dynamic pressure sensor with a range of 0-10 MPa. The communication module can be a 4G / 5G or fiber optic communication module.

[0032] In one exemplary embodiment, such as Figure 2 As shown, a method for estimating substation disaster losses is provided, and this method is applied to... Figure 1 The following steps, 201 to 204, are used as an example of computer equipment.

[0033] Step 201: Obtain the collected disaster parameters, and calculate the target debris flow velocity, target debris flow impact force, and target rock impact force based on the disaster parameters.

[0034] The disaster parameters include debris flow height, debris flow impact pressure, and rock volume. To distinguish it from the debris flow height in the 3D vulnerable surface section below, the debris flow height in the disaster parameters will be referred to as the target debris flow height. The target debris flow height can be acquired by a height sensor on the integrated board, specifically by the height sensor collecting the debris flow fluid accumulation height. The debris flow impact pressure can be acquired by a pressure sensor on the integrated board. The rock volume refers to the volume of the target rocks in the debris flow. The target rocks are automatically selected from real-time scanning data based on preset volume thresholds, impact energy thresholds, or statistical percentiles, and are those that pose the main impact risk to the equipment. The rock volume can be obtained by scanning and performing point cloud analysis using a 3D scanner or binocular vision sensor on the integrated board. When multiple rocks are identified, the 3D scanner transmits the average volume of the multiple rocks or the maximum volume of the multiple rocks as the rock volume to the computer.

[0035] It should be noted that the target debris flow velocity, target debris flow impact force, and target rock impact force are all terms used to distinguish them from the debris flow velocity, debris flow impact force, and rock impact force in the three-dimensional vulnerable surface described below.

[0036] In one possible implementation, the height sensor, pressure sensor, and 3D scanner on the integrated board respectively transmit the collected debris flow height, debris flow impact pressure, and rock volume to the data preprocessing module on the integrated board via wired or wireless means. The data preprocessing module packages the debris flow height, debris flow impact pressure, and rock volume, and sends the packaged data packet to the communication module on the integrated board. The communication module then sends the data packet to a computer device. After receiving the data packet, the computer device parses the data packet to obtain the debris flow height, debris flow impact pressure, and rock volume.

[0037] In one example, the target debris flow velocity is calculated based on disaster parameters, including: using the product of debris flow impact pressure, the equivalent projected area of ​​the impacted equipment, and gravitational acceleration as a first value; using the product of building shape factor, debris flow unit weight, and a sine value as a second value; the sine value is calculated by using the angle between the building's stress surface and the debris flow impact direction as a variable of a sin function; and using the ratio of the first and second values ​​as a variable of a sqrt function to calculate the target debris flow velocity.

[0038] The formula for calculating the target debris flow velocity is expressed as follows:

[0039]

[0040] in, Indicates the target debris flow velocity; This represents the impact pressure of a debris flow, measured in units of... ; This represents the equivalent projected area of ​​the equipment subjected to impact, in units of... ; Represents gravitational acceleration. ; This represents the building shape factor, with 1.0 for circular buildings, 1.33 for rectangular buildings, and 1.47 for square buildings. This indicates the severity of a debris flow, expressed in units of 1. ; Represents the sine value. It indicates the angle between the stress surface of the building and the direction of the debris flow.

[0041] In one example, the target debris flow impact force is calculated based on disaster parameters, including multiplying the debris flow impact pressure by the equivalent projected area of ​​the equipment impacted, as the target debris flow impact force.

[0042] The formula for calculating the impact force of a target debris flow is expressed as follows:

[0043]

[0044] in, Indicates the impact force of the target debris flow; This represents the impact pressure of a debris flow, measured in units of... ; This represents the equivalent projected area of ​​the equipment subjected to impact, in units of... .

[0045] In one example, the impact force of the target stone is calculated based on disaster parameters, including: obtaining the stone weight by multiplying the stone's density and volume; and obtaining the target stone impact force based on the elastic modulus of the engineering component, the moment of inertia of the central axis of the engineering component's cross-section, the length of the engineering component, the stone's velocity, the stone's weight, and the sine value.

[0046] The formula for calculating the impact force of the target stone is expressed as follows:

[0047]

[0048]

[0049] in, Indicates the impact force of the target stone; The elastic modulus of an engineering component is expressed in units of 1. ; The moment of inertia representing the central axis of the cross-section of an engineering component, expressed in units of 1000 m / s. ; The velocity of the moving stone, in units of . The speed of the moving rocks can be the same as the speed of the target debris flow; therefore, the speed of the moving rocks can be determined by the speed of the target debris flow. Indicates the weight of the stone, in units of ; Indicates the weight of the stone, in units of . ; The volume of the stone is expressed in units of 1. ; Represents gravitational acceleration. ; Indicates the length of the engineering component. Represents the sine value. It indicates the angle between the stress surface of the building and the direction of the debris flow.

[0050] Step 202: Obtain the target impact force ratio factor based on the target debris flow impact force and the target rock impact force.

[0051] It should be noted that the target impact force scaling factor is a term used to distinguish it from the impact force scaling factor in the three-dimensional vulnerable surface discussed below.

[0052] The formula for calculating the target impact force scaling factor is expressed as follows:

[0053]

[0054] in, Indicates the target impact force scaling factor; Indicates the impact force of the target debris flow; Indicates the impact force of the target stone; Indicates the impact force of the target debris flow Or the impact force of the target stone Target impact force scaling factor Used to quantify the contribution of mudflow impact or rock impact to the total impact force.

[0055] Step 203: Based on the target debris flow velocity, the target impact force scaling factor, and the target debris flow height in the disaster parameters, the target failure probability of each device is obtained from the three-dimensional vulnerability surface corresponding to each device in the pre-constructed substation. The three-dimensional vulnerability surface is used to characterize the mapping relationship between the failure probability of the device and the debris flow velocity, impact force scaling factor, and debris flow height.

[0056] It should be noted that the term "target failure probability" is a designation used to distinguish it from the failure probability in a three-dimensional vulnerable surface.

[0057] Among them, the three-dimensional vulnerability surface corresponding to each device is pre-constructed. It can be understood that the three-dimensional vulnerability surface is obtained by fitting a pre-constructed three-dimensional vulnerability matrix. This three-dimensional vulnerability matrix is ​​a multi-dimensional array that defines the failure probability at discrete debris flow velocity, impact force scaling factor and debris flow height points.

[0058] For each piece of equipment, the calculated target debris flow velocity is used... Target impact force ratio factor And the target debris flow height in the disaster parameters As a triplet ( , , Based on this triplet, a three-dimensional linear interpolation algorithm is used to query the three-dimensional vulnerability surface corresponding to the device to obtain the target failure probability of the device.

[0059] The method for constructing a three-dimensional vulnerable surface is as follows:

[0060] Step 1, Basic Data Acquisition: Obtain a large amount of sample data for each device by querying historical disaster damage reports, conducting physical model tests, or using finite element software for simulation;

[0061] Step 2, Curve Fitting: Statistical analysis is performed on the sample data of each device to fit a two-dimensional foundation vulnerability curve under different debris flow heights and velocities.

[0062] Step 3, Matrix Expansion: Through expert experience or supplementary simulation, the impact force scaling factor (calculated based on debris flow impact force and rock impact force in the sample data) is used as the third dimension to determine the failure probability under different impact force scaling factors, different debris flow heights, and debris flow velocities. Through interpolation, a matrix covering debris flow velocities (0-10) is generated. ), Debris flow height (0-6) The three-dimensional matrix of the impact force scaling factor (0-1) is stored in the database for real-time querying, and a three-dimensional vulnerability surface is drawn based on it.

[0063] refer to Figure 3 As shown, a schematic diagram of a three-dimensional vulnerable surface with an impact force scaling factor of 0.5 is presented.

[0064] Step 204: Determine the estimated disaster loss of the substation based on the target failure probability of each device.

[0065] In one possible implementation, for each piece of equipment, the estimated value of the equipment's disaster loss is obtained based on the equipment's failure probability, residual value coefficient, and equipment price; the estimated value of the substation's disaster loss is obtained by summing the estimated values ​​of the disaster losses of all equipment in the substation.

[0066] In another possible implementation, such as Figure 4 The diagram illustrates another method for estimating substation disaster losses. It determines the estimated disaster loss of the substation based on the target failure probability of each piece of equipment, including steps 401 to 404, wherein:

[0067] Step 401: For each piece of equipment, obtain the estimated value of the equipment's disaster loss based on the equipment's failure probability, residual value coefficient, and equipment price; and obtain the estimated value of the substation's equipment disaster loss based on the sum of the estimated values ​​of the disaster losses of all equipment in the substation.

[0068] The formula for calculating the estimated damage to equipment is expressed as follows:

[0069]

[0070] in, For equipment The estimated damage, that is, the equipment damage. Economic losses; For equipment The probability of failure; For equipment The residual value coefficient; For equipment The price (the price of transformers and distribution cabinets needs to be multiplied by 0.8 from the original price to balance the residual value of the equipment).

[0071] Step 402: Based on the sum of transportation costs for all equipment in the substation, obtain the estimated transportation loss of the substation.

[0072] The formula for calculating the transportation cost of the equipment is expressed as follows:

[0073]

[0074] in, For equipment Transportation costs; For equipment The transportation cost rate coefficient.

[0075] Step 403: Based on the labor and material costs required to repair the substation, obtain the estimated damage value for the substation repair.

[0076] The formula for calculating the labor costs required to repair a substation is expressed as follows:

[0077]

[0078] in, The labor costs required to repair the substation; Total number of workers; Total working days; Wages are calculated per workday.

[0079] The formula for calculating the material costs required to repair a substation is expressed as follows:

[0080]

[0081] in, The cost of materials required to repair the substation; This is a coefficient, less than 1, used to measure the cost of substation repair.

[0082] Step 404: Based on the estimated values ​​of equipment damage, transportation damage, and repair damage, obtain the estimated value of substation damage.

[0083] The formula for calculating the estimated damage to a substation is expressed as follows:

[0084]

[0085] in, This is the estimated damage to the substation.

[0086] The aforementioned substation disaster damage estimation method acquires collected disaster parameters and calculates the target debris flow velocity, target debris flow impact force, and target rock impact force based on these parameters. Then, based on the target debris flow impact force and target rock impact force, a target impact force scaling factor is obtained. Furthermore, based on the target debris flow velocity, target impact force scaling factor, and the target debris flow height from the disaster parameters, the target failure probability of each piece of equipment is retrieved from a pre-constructed three-dimensional vulnerability surface corresponding to each piece of equipment in the substation. Finally, the estimated disaster damage value of the substation is determined based on the target failure probability of each piece of equipment. This method minimizes the need for manual investigation in the chaotic post-disaster environment, achieves automated disaster damage estimation, and improves the efficiency of disaster damage estimation.

[0087] In addition, real-time data, calculation process curves, three-dimensional vulnerability surface visualization, failure probability and economic loss results can all be dynamically refreshed and displayed on the human-computer interaction interface of the computer equipment; when the target failure probability or the estimated disaster loss of the substation exceeds the preset threshold, an audible and visual alarm is triggered and an alarm report is generated.

[0088] This application also has the following advantages:

[0089] High assessment accuracy and clear physical mechanism of the model: It innovatively decouples the complex failure mode of debris flow into two independent mechanical processes: "mudflow impact" and "rock impact," and innovatively introduces the key parameter of impact force proportionality factor. This overcomes the limitation of traditional methods that treat debris flow as a homogeneous medium, enabling the vulnerability model to accurately reflect the disaster characteristics of different material compositions. By constructing a three-dimensional vulnerability surface of flow velocity-height-impact force ratio, replacing the traditional two-dimensional curve, the assessment results of equipment failure probability are closely integrated with the actual physical failure mechanism, significantly improving the scientific rigor and accuracy of the assessment results.

[0090] Real-time dynamic response supports forward-looking emergency decision-making: Through a sensor array deployed at the front end, the system enables real-time perception and calculation of key physical parameters of debris flows. During a disaster, the system can dynamically calculate the impact force and query the failure probability, achieving a leap from "static assessment" to "dynamic tracking." This provides power grid staff with a valuable "decision-making window," making it possible to implement forward-looking protection strategies such as proactive load shedding, network reconfiguration, and power switching before critical equipment is completely destroyed. This effectively curbs the expansion of the accident scope and enhances the resilience of the power grid in disaster prevention and mitigation.

[0091] It provides intuitive economic data and services for precise asset management and claims settlement: By multiplying the dynamic failure probability by the equipment asset value, it directly outputs a quantitative economic loss estimate for individual equipment and the substation as a whole, providing timely and objective data support for the accurate application and allocation of post-disaster reconstruction funds for the power sector; at the same time, the economic assessment results can also be used for the differentiated disaster prevention and reinforcement investment benefit analysis of substations, guiding resources to be tilted towards the most vulnerable and highest value equipment, and achieving the optimization of safety investment.

[0092] Automated processes ensure objective and consistent assessment results: The system automates the entire process from data acquisition, signal processing, mechanical calculations, model lookup to loss reporting. This minimizes the need for manual investigation and subjective judgment in the chaotic post-disaster environment, ensuring the repeatability of the assessment process and the objectivity and consistency of the assessment results. It effectively avoids assessment deviations caused by differences in the experience of different experts, laying the foundation for a standardized and regulated disaster loss assessment system.

[0093] It should be understood that although the steps in the flowcharts of the embodiments described above are shown sequentially according to the arrows, these steps are not necessarily executed in the order indicated by the arrows. Unless explicitly stated herein, there is no strict order restriction on the execution of these steps, and they can be executed in other orders. Moreover, at least some steps in the flowcharts of the embodiments described above may include multiple steps or multiple stages. These steps or stages are not necessarily completed at the same time, but can be executed at different times. The execution order of these steps or stages is not necessarily sequential, but can be performed alternately or in turn with other steps or at least some of the steps or stages in other steps. It is understood that the steps in different embodiments can be freely combined as needed, and all non-contradictory solutions formed by such combinations are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0094] Based on the same inventive concept, this application also provides a substation disaster loss estimation device for implementing the substation disaster loss estimation method described above. The solution provided by this device is similar to the solution described in the above method; therefore, the specific limitations in one or more of the following XXX device embodiments can be found in the limitations of the substation disaster loss estimation method described above, and will not be repeated here.

[0095] In one exemplary embodiment, such as Figure 5 As shown, a substation disaster loss estimation device 500 is provided. The substation disaster loss estimation device 500 includes: an acquisition module 501, a first determination module 502, a query module 503, and a second determination module 504, wherein:

[0096] The acquisition module 501 is used to acquire the collected disaster parameters and calculate the target debris flow velocity, target debris flow impact force, and target rock impact force based on the disaster parameters.

[0097] The first determining module 502 is used to obtain the target impact force ratio factor based on the target debris flow impact force and the target rock impact force.

[0098] The query module 503 is used to query the target failure probability of each device from the three-dimensional vulnerability surface corresponding to each device in the pre-constructed substation based on the target debris flow velocity, the target impact force scaling factor, and the target debris flow height in the disaster parameters. The three-dimensional vulnerability surface is used to characterize the mapping relationship between the failure probability of the device and the debris flow velocity, impact force scaling factor, and debris flow height.

[0099] The second determining module 504 is used to determine the estimated value of the substation's disaster loss based on the target failure probability of each device.

[0100] In one embodiment, the second determining module 504 is specifically used to obtain the disaster loss estimate of each device based on the device's failure probability, residual value coefficient, and device price; and to obtain the disaster loss estimate of the substation based on the sum of the disaster loss estimates of all devices in the substation.

[0101] In one embodiment, the second determining module 504 is specifically used to obtain the equipment disaster loss estimate of the substation based on the sum of the disaster loss estimates of all equipment in the substation; to obtain the transportation disaster loss estimate of the substation based on the sum of the transportation costs of all equipment in the substation; to obtain the repair disaster loss estimate of the substation based on the labor and material costs required to repair the substation; and to obtain the disaster loss estimate of the substation based on the equipment disaster loss estimate, the transportation disaster loss estimate, and the repair disaster loss estimate.

[0102] In one embodiment, the disaster parameters include debris flow impact pressure; the acquisition module 501 is specifically used to take the product of debris flow impact pressure, the equivalent projected area of ​​the equipment impacted, and gravitational acceleration as a first value; and the product of building shape factor, debris flow unit weight, and sine value as a second value; the sine value is calculated by using the angle between the building's stress surface and the debris flow impact direction as a variable of the sin function; and the ratio of the first value and the second value is used as a variable of the sqrt function to calculate the target debris flow velocity through the sqrt function.

[0103] In one embodiment, the acquisition module 501 is specifically used to take the product of the debris flow impact pressure and the equivalent projected area of ​​the equipment impacted as the target debris flow impact force.

[0104] In one embodiment, the disaster parameters include the volume of the stone; the acquisition module 501 is specifically used to obtain the weight of the stone based on the product of the stone weight and the stone volume; and to obtain the impact force of the target stone based on the elastic modulus of the engineering component, the moment of inertia of the central axis of the cross section of the engineering component, the length of the engineering component, the stone movement speed, the stone weight, and the sine value.

[0105] Each module in the aforementioned substation disaster loss estimation device can be implemented entirely or partially through software, hardware, or a combination thereof. These modules can be embedded in the processor of a computer device in hardware form or independent of it, or stored in the memory of a computer device in software form, so that the processor can call and execute the corresponding operations of each module.

[0106] In one exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided, which may be a terminal, and its internal structure diagram may be as follows: Figure 6 As shown, the computer device includes a processor, memory, input / output interface, communication interface, display unit, and input device. The processor, memory, and input / output interface are connected via a system bus, and the communication interface, display unit, and input device are also connected to the system bus via the input / output interface. The processor provides computational and control capabilities. The memory includes non-volatile storage media and internal memory. The non-volatile storage media stores the operating system and computer programs. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage media. The input / output interface is used for exchanging information between the processor and external devices. The communication interface is used for wired or wireless communication with external terminals; wireless communication can be achieved through Wi-Fi, mobile cellular networks, Near Field Communication (NFC), or other technologies. When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements a substation disaster loss estimation method. The display unit is used to form a visually visible image and can be a display screen, projection device, or virtual reality imaging device. The display screen can be an LCD screen or an e-ink screen. The input device of the computer device can be a touch layer covering the display screen, or buttons, trackballs, or touchpads set on the casing of the computer device, or external keyboards, touchpads, or mice, etc.

[0107] Those skilled in the art will understand that Figure 6 The structure shown is merely a block diagram of a portion of the structure related to the present application and does not constitute a limitation on the computer device to which the present application is applied. Specific computer devices may include more or fewer components than those shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or have different component arrangements.

[0108] In one exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the method described in any of the above method embodiments.

[0109] In one embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method described in any of the above method embodiments.

[0110] In one embodiment, a computer program product is provided, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method described in any of the above method embodiments.

[0111] Those skilled in the art will understand that all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments can be implemented by a computer program instructing related hardware. The computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the above methods. Any references to memory, databases, or other media used in the embodiments provided in this application can include at least one of non-volatile memory and volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash memory, optical memory, high-density embedded non-volatile memory, resistive random access memory (ReRAM), magnetic random access memory (MRAM), ferroelectric random access memory (FRAM), phase change memory (PCM), graphene memory, etc. Volatile memory can include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory, etc. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM can take many forms, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) or Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM). The databases involved in the embodiments provided in this application may include at least one type of relational database and non-relational database. Non-relational databases may include, but are not limited to, blockchain-based distributed databases. The processors involved in the embodiments provided in this application may be general-purpose processors, central processing units, graphics processing units, digital signal processors, programmable logic devices, quantum computing-based data processing logic devices, artificial intelligence (AI) processors, etc., and are not limited to these.

[0112] The technical features of the above embodiments can be combined in any way. For the sake of brevity, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this application.

[0113] The embodiments described above are merely illustrative of several implementation methods of this application, and while the descriptions are specific and detailed, they should not be construed as limiting the scope of this application. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make various modifications and improvements without departing from the concept of this application, and these all fall within the protection scope of this application. Therefore, the protection scope of this application should be determined by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for estimating substation disaster losses, characterized in that, The method includes: The collected disaster parameters are obtained, and the target debris flow velocity, target debris flow impact force, and target rock impact force are calculated based on the disaster parameters. Based on the target debris flow impact force and the target rock impact force, the target impact force scaling factor is obtained; Based on the target debris flow velocity, the target impact force scaling factor, and the target debris flow height in the disaster parameters, the target failure probability of each device is obtained from the three-dimensional vulnerability surface corresponding to each device in the pre-constructed substation. The three-dimensional vulnerability surface is used to characterize the mapping relationship between the failure probability of the device and the debris flow velocity, impact force scaling factor, and debris flow height. The estimated damage value of the substation is determined based on the target failure probability of each of the aforementioned devices.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The determination of the estimated disaster loss of the substation based on the target failure probability of each of the aforementioned devices includes: For each piece of equipment, the estimated disaster loss value of the equipment is obtained based on the failure probability of the equipment, the residual value coefficient of the equipment, and the equipment price of the equipment; The estimated disaster loss of the substation is obtained by summing the estimated disaster loss values ​​of all the equipment in the substation.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The step of obtaining the estimated disaster loss value of the substation by summing the estimated disaster loss values ​​of all the equipment in the substation includes: The estimated equipment damage value of the substation is obtained by summing the estimated damage values ​​of all the equipment in the substation. The estimated transportation loss of the substation is obtained by summing the transportation costs of all the equipment in the substation. Based on the labor and material costs required to repair the substation, the estimated damage value for the substation repair is obtained; The estimated damage value of the substation is obtained based on the estimated damage values ​​of the equipment, transportation, and repair.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The disaster parameters include debris flow impact pressure; the step of calculating the target debris flow velocity based on the disaster parameters includes: The product of the debris flow impact pressure, the equivalent projected area of ​​the equipment subjected to the impact, and the gravitational acceleration is taken as the first value. The product of the building shape factor, the specific gravity of the debris flow, and the sine value is used as the second value; the sine value is calculated by using the angle between the building's stress surface and the debris flow's impact direction as a variable of the sin function. The ratio of the first value to the second value is used as a variable of the sqrt function to calculate the target debris flow velocity.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that, The steps for calculating the target debris flow impact force based on the disaster parameters include: The product of the debris flow impact pressure and the equivalent projected area of ​​the equipment subjected to the impact is taken as the target debris flow impact force.

6. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that, The disaster parameters include the volume of the rock; the step of calculating the impact force of the target rock based on the disaster parameters includes: The weight of the stone is obtained by multiplying its density and volume. The impact force of the target stone is obtained based on the elastic modulus of the engineering component, the moment of inertia of the central axis of the cross section of the engineering component, the length of the engineering component, the speed of the stone movement, the weight of the stone, and the sine value.

7. A substation disaster loss estimation device, characterized in that, The device includes: The acquisition module is used to acquire the collected disaster parameters and calculate the target debris flow velocity, target debris flow impact force, and target rock impact force based on the disaster parameters. The first determining module is used to obtain the target impact force ratio factor based on the target debris flow impact force and the target rock impact force; The query module is used to query the target failure probability of each device from the three-dimensional vulnerability surface corresponding to each device in the substation based on the target debris flow velocity, the target impact force scaling factor, and the target debris flow height in the disaster parameters; the three-dimensional vulnerability surface is used to characterize the mapping relationship between the failure probability of the device and the debris flow velocity, impact force scaling factor, and debris flow height. The second determining module is used to determine the estimated disaster loss of the substation based on the target failure probability of each of the devices.

8. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, characterized in that, When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

10. A computer program product, comprising a computer program, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

Images