New energy output uncertainty modeling method considering source-load-storage cooperation

Abstract

The invention discloses a new energy output uncertainty modeling method considering source-load-storage collaboration, and relates to the technical field of power system and new energy grid connection, and the method comprises the following steps: constructing a source-load-storage disturbance time-sharing account book, aligning new energy output sudden change data, load power pulsation data and energy storage operation state data according to a unified time reference, and obtaining a new energy output uncertainty model; and generating a continuous and consistent time sequence disturbance band. According to the method, by constructing the source-load-storage disturbance time-sharing account book and the rhythm reference frame, unified identification and sequence regulation and control of multi-side energy disturbance are achieved, and power response time sequence dislocation is eliminated; through an energy buffer structure, a low-carbon priority regulation and control inlet and phase traction regulation and control, energy storage and loads are in cooperative response, power fluctuation is absorbed and released in order, and stable operation and low-carbon controllable regulation of the system are achieved.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the field of power systems and new energy grid-connection technology, in particular to a new energy output uncertainty modeling method considering source-load-storage coordination. BACKGROUND

[0002] The new energy output uncertainty modeling considering source-load-storage coordination refers to, in a power system, no longer describing the fluctuation of wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy output in isolation, but integrating the randomness of new energy generation side, the power fluctuation characteristics of load side and the charging and discharging adjustment behavior of energy storage side into the same modeling framework. The modeling process analyzes the uncertainty characteristics of new energy output generated by time and environmental changes, combines the influence of load change on power balance and the effect of energy storage state on fluctuation absorption and release, and constructs an output uncertainty expression reflecting the mutual coupling relationship among the three, so that the uncertainty of new energy output is no longer a single random disturbance, but a systematic uncertainty co-evolved with system regulation capacity and demand change, providing a more actual operation state-based description for power system operation analysis, dispatching decision and risk assessment.

[0003] The prior art has the following disadvantages: In the prior art, for a high proportion of new energy grid-connection scenarios, new energy output uncertainty is usually modeled separately at the source side and transmitted to the remaining parts of the system through power balance constraints. When wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy output suddenly deviates in a short time, this uncertainty will be passively transmitted to the load side and the energy storage side along the power balance relationship, causing multiple types of regulation resources to start regulation actions at the same time in the same dispatching period. Since the prior art lacks a description of the coordination relationship between load response, energy storage charging and discharging and conventional regulation resources, each regulation action is usually executed independently based on its own local state, failing to fully reflect the overall effect after the superposition of multi-side regulation, which easily leads to system compensation power exceeding the actual demand, forming regulation overshoot. Further, in the operation mode dominated by low-carbon dispatching logic, high-emission regulation resources are continuously inhibited, and the available fast and stable means of the system are limited, making it difficult to eliminate the power deviation after overshoot in a timely manner, and further causing power to repeatedly deviate in multiple consecutive dispatching periods, leading to continuous oscillation of the system operation state around the balance point, increasing new energy curtailment, frequent switching and operation risk of energy storage, and affecting the safe and stable operation of the power system under low-carbon constraints.

[0004] The above information disclosed in the BACKGROUND section only serves to enhance the understanding of the background of the present disclosure, and thus it can include information that does not constitute the prior art known to those of ordinary skill in the art. SUMMARY

[0005] The purpose of the present application is to provide a new energy output uncertainty modeling method considering source-load-storage coordination to solve the problems in the background art.

[0006] In order to achieve the above object, the present application provides the following technical scheme: considering the source load storage cooperation new energy output uncertainty modeling method, comprising the following steps: The source load storage disturbance co-time ledger is constructed, the new energy output mutation data, the load power fluctuation data and the energy storage operation state data are aligned according to the unified time reference, and the continuous and consistent time sequence disturbance band is generated, which is used to establish the unified time reference for new energy output uncertainty modeling; The time sequence disturbance band is used to jointly mark the multi-source power change in the same time window, identify the synchronous risk points of the multi-source power change, extract the trigger sequence of the power change, and generate the superimposed risk list corresponding to the time sequence disturbance band, which is used to represent the coupling relationship between the source side, the load side and the energy storage side disturbance; According to the superimposed risk list, the time sequence of each risk node is rearranged, the inverse phase sequence scheduling queue is established, the intervention order of each adjusting resource is determined according to the rhythm of first buffering and then force, and the continuous rhythm reference frame is formed, which is used to guide the time sequence cooperation of multi-side power adjustment; The energy buffer structure is configured around the rhythm reference frame, and the overshoot absorption band is formed through the alternating process of energy compression and energy release in the rhythm change process, so that the power fluctuation is orderly absorbed and released in the buffer structure, thereby maintaining the balance and continuity of the new energy output modeling process; The low-carbon priority regulation entrance is set relying on the overshoot absorption band, the leading intervention order of the energy storage unit and the load response unit is determined, the micro-amplitude response is realized in the initial power offset, the zero-bias entrance is established, and the adjustment behavior is ensured to meet the low-carbon operation constraint and maintain the adjustment continuity; Based on the zero-bias entrance, the phase traction regulation is implemented, the net load change trend is dynamically dragged to adjust the rhythm, the energy storage unit is guided to release a small amount of energy and the load unit is driven to adjust the power in small steps, so that the source load storage cooperative regulation process continuously moves away from the power overshoot shock interval in dynamic operation, and the stable controllable new energy output uncertainty modeling is realized.

[0007] Preferably, the time sequence disturbance band generation step is as follows: The new energy output mutation data, the load power fluctuation data and the energy storage operation state data are aligned according to the unified time reference, the common time reference is established through time interpolation and time node matching, so that the three types of power change data have synchronization in time dimension; On the basis of the unified time reference, the amplitude scale is processed, the power change data of various types is converted into relative power change value, and the proportion is normalized according to the unified reference power, so that the power changes of different sides have comparability; Based on the unified time reference and the amplitude consistent data, the continuous trajectory of source-load-storage disturbance is constructed, and the new energy output change, the load power change and the storage power adjustment direction are tracked in time sequence to form a continuous time sequence curve of multi-side power change; The three types of power change data are time sequence fused, the new energy output trajectory, the load power trajectory and the storage power trajectory are superimposed, and a time continuous time sequence disturbance band is generated, which is used as a unified time reference for new energy output uncertainty modeling.

[0008] Preferably, the superimposed risk list generation step is as follows: A time window for joint analysis is established, the time sequence disturbance band is divided into continuous and non-overlapping time segments, so that each time window can contain the whole process of new energy output change, load power change and storage power change; In each time window, the disturbance characteristics of new energy output, load power and storage power are extracted, and the joint labeling of load power change trend and storage power response state is carried out with the new energy output change direction as the reference axis, and the corresponding relationship of power rise, fall and stability is recorded; The synchronization risk points of multi-source power change are identified and the trigger sequence is extracted, and the time sequence relationship of new energy output change, storage power response and load power change is determined; The joint labeling results of each time window are integrated, and the superimposed risk list corresponding to the time sequence disturbance band is generated in time sequence, which is used to represent the coupling relationship between source side, load side and storage side disturbance.

[0009] Preferably, in generating the superimposed risk list, the risk events in each time window are arranged in time sequence in turn, and the new energy output change direction, the storage power response direction, the load power change trend and the trigger interval are recorded, and the time sequence reflecting the power disturbance coupling characteristics is formed through the continuous arrangement of risk events, which is used to describe the dynamic transmission relationship of source-load-storage power change.

[0010] Preferably, the rhythm reference frame generation step is as follows: The risk node information of new energy output change, load power change and storage power change is extracted from the superimposed risk list, and the risk nodes are divided into three types of new energy dominant type, load dominant type and storage dominant type according to the power change characteristics; According to the power change direction, power change amplitude and time interval of adjacent risk nodes, the energy transmission path between risk nodes is identified, and the energy transmission chain with causal logic is formed; According to the principle of first slow release and then force, the risk nodes in the energy transmission chain are time rearranged to form an inverse phase sequence scheduling queue with slow release in the front, transition in the middle and force in the back; The rhythm reference frame is established based on the reverse phase sequence scheduling queue to determine the intervention sequence of energy storage discharge, load adjustment and new energy output recovery, which is used to guide the timing cooperation of multi-side power regulation.

[0011] Preferably, the overshoot absorption band is formed as follows: According to the time law of power change in the rhythm reference frame, the time range and power boundary of the energy buffer interval are determined, the power rising section is defined as the energy compression interval, the power falling section is defined as the energy release interval, and the energy compression interval and the energy release interval are time-matched with the slow-release stage and the force-adding stage of the rhythm reference frame; The bidirectional circulation path of energy compression and energy release is constructed in the energy buffer interval, so that the new energy output, energy storage device and load unit form a closed-loop transmission relationship of energy absorption and release; By connecting the energy buffer intervals of each rhythm cycle in succession, the overshoot absorption band composed of energy compression intervals and energy release intervals is formed, so that the power fluctuation is orderly absorbed and released in the energy buffer structure, thereby maintaining the balance and continuity of the new energy output modeling process.

[0012] Preferably, the zero-bias entry establishment process is as follows: In the energy flow structure of the overshoot absorption band, the low-carbon priority regulation entry is established, the junction point of the energy compression zone and the energy release zone is taken as the reference, the energy import path containing the energy storage energy exchange chain and the load energy access chain is established, and the energy regulation at the initial stage of power deviation is dominated by low-carbon resources; The leading intervention sequence of the energy storage unit and the load response unit in the energy import path is determined, the energy storage unit preferentially performs micro charging and discharging regulation, and the load response unit enters the fine power response stage after the energy storage regulation is completed, so as to realize the time-continuous collaborative regulation; Through the micro energy response of the energy storage unit and the load response unit at the initial stage of power deviation, the zero-bias entry is established, so that the energy absorption and release form a balanced transition in the time dimension, thereby ensuring that the regulation behavior conforms to the low-carbon operation constraint and maintains the regulation continuity.

[0013] Preferably, the energy storage unit in the low-carbon priority regulation entry absorbs energy at a low rate when the new energy output rises, and releases energy at a low rate when the new energy output falls, and the load response unit adjusts the power consumption according to the energy change direction of the energy storage unit, so that the energy absorption and release process is continuously connected in time, forming a balanced regulation interval at the initial stage of power deviation.

[0014] Preferably, the phase traction regulation is implemented based on the zero-bias entry, the regulation rhythm is dynamically dragged by the net load change trend, the energy storage unit is controlled to release a small amount of energy, and the load unit is driven to perform fine power adjustment steps as follows: Taking the zero-bias inlet as the energy balance starting point, the continuous time sequence data of new energy output, load power and energy storage power are identified, the net load change trend is determined, and the corresponding phase traction reference direction is established; The phase traction control interval is set within the time frame of the rhythm reference frame, and the trend capture area, the synchronous traction area and the delay compensation area are divided, so that the energy storage and the load are synchronized with the net load change in the time dimension; According to the net load change trend, the energy storage unit is organized to release or absorb a small amount of energy, so as to realize the immediate balance at the initial stage of power fluctuation; The load unit is guided to perform fine power adjustment according to the phase traction reference direction, and the residual offset after energy storage energy adjustment is compensated; Through the continuous cooperative adjustment of the energy storage unit and the load unit, the source-load-storage collaborative stability interval is formed, so that the new energy output uncertainty modeling process continuously moves away from the power overshoot shock interval in dynamic operation.

[0015] In the above technical solution, the technical effects and advantages provided by the present application are as follows: The present application constructs a source-load-storage disturbance co-time account under the same time reference, and generates a time sequence disturbance band and an overlay risk list based thereon, so that the new energy output, load fluctuation and energy storage state are dynamically associated, the accurate identification and sequential reconstruction of multi-side energy disturbance at the initial stage of power change are realized, and the time sequence misplacement problem of power response is fundamentally eliminated. Through inverse phase sequence scheduling and the construction of rhythm reference frame, the power regulation process is changed from passive compensation to active rhythm response, so that the adjustment resources form a front and back connection relationship in the time dimension, thereby effectively inhibiting the accumulation and conduction of power overshoot, and ensuring the stability and consistency of energy regulation behavior in continuous operation; The present application configures an energy buffer structure under the rhythm reference frame, and introduces a low-carbon priority regulation inlet and a phase traction regulation mode, so that the energy storage unit and the load response unit are early involved and cooperatively adjusted at the initial stage of power offset, the power fluctuation is layered absorbed and gradually released, and high-frequency oscillation accumulation is avoided. Energy flow maintains dynamic balance between compression and release, and complementary adjustment is formed by small amount of energy release of energy storage and fine step adjustment of load, so that the system operation state always moves away from the overshoot shock interval in dynamic evolution, thereby realizing the stability improvement of new energy output uncertainty modeling and the unity of low-carbon operation target. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0016] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments or the prior art, the drawings needed in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments described in the present application, and other drawings can also be obtained by those skilled in the art based on these drawings.

[0017] Figure 1 A method flowchart of a new energy output uncertainty modeling method considering source-load-storage coordination is provided. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0018] Example implementations will now be described more fully with reference to the accompanying drawings. Example implementations may, however, be implemented in many different forms and should not be construed as limited to the examples set forth herein; rather, these example implementations are provided so that this disclosure will be thorough and complete, and will fully convey the scope of example implementations to those skilled in the art.

[0019] The present application provides a new energy output uncertainty modeling method considering source-load-storage coordination as shown in Figure 1 The method comprises the following steps: A source-load-storage disturbance co-time ledger is constructed, and new energy output mutation data, load power fluctuation data and storage operation state data are aligned according to a unified time reference to generate a continuous and consistent time sequence disturbance band, which is used to establish a unified time reference for new energy output uncertainty modeling; In this step, the new energy output mutation data, the load power fluctuation data and the storage operation state data are aligned according to a unified time reference, the amplitude scale is unified, the disturbance trajectory is constructed and the time sequence is fused, so as to generate a continuous and consistent time sequence disturbance band, thereby providing a unified time reference and a continuous data basis for new energy output uncertainty modeling. In the specific implementation process, the following is performed: Aiming at the time reference difference of new energy output mutation data, load power fluctuation data and energy storage operation state data, a unified time alignment process is established. In this process, the real-time power change record on the new energy output side, the power consumption power time sequence change record on the load side, and the charging power, discharging power and energy state change record on the energy storage side are extracted respectively. The sampling frequency, record length and time stamp format of the above three types of data are usually not completely consistent. In order to make it have the time sequence alignment characteristic, a unified time reference needs to be determined first. The time reference takes the sampling interval of new energy output as the dominant period, and adjusts the time records of load power change and energy storage operation state to the same sampling interval through time interpolation or time node matching. In the adjustment process, the time gap in the load power change record is filled in time, so that each new energy output sampling time corresponds to load power record and energy storage state record. For the charging state, discharging state and static state in the energy storage operation state record, they are kept time synchronous after the time reference is unified, so that the three types of data at the same time have one-to-one correspondence. In this way, all power change data have common starting point and ending point on the unified time line, ensuring that the operation state of source, load and storage in each time slice can be compared synchronously. After this step, the three types of power change data are completely aligned in time dimension, laying a foundation for subsequent amplitude processing and disturbance band construction.

[0020] On the basis of unified time reference, aiming at the problem of large amplitude difference of different side power data, the amplitude scale is processed to ensure the comparability of different types of power change.

[0021] The new energy output mutation data is usually recorded in units of megawatts or kilowatts, the load power fluctuation data may be expressed in power percentage or instantaneous power offset, and the energy storage operation state data is often expressed in charging and discharging power and energy percentage change. In order to enable these data to reflect the real disturbance characteristics on the same scale, it is necessary to convert all power changes into relative power change values. Specifically, taking each sampling time under the unified time reference as a node, the power change of new energy output at adjacent time, the power change of load power at adjacent time and the power change of energy storage are calculated. Then these changes are arranged in time sequence to form the power change sequence of source side, load side and energy storage side. In this process, in order to avoid the deviation between different power magnitudes affecting the overall disturbance description, all power change values are proportionally normalized according to a unified reference power, so that the change value at each time is within the same order of magnitude to represent the power offset amplitude. Through this process, the new energy output mutation, load power fluctuation and energy storage operation state change are converted into time series with continuous distribution on a unified scale, so that the three types of data have comparability and superposition. In addition, in order to maintain the continuity of amplitude, the mutation value in the time series is boundary smoothed to make the power change process present natural transition in time dimension. After this step, all power change data are not only completely aligned in time, but also have a unified measurement standard in power amplitude.

[0022] Based on the power change data with unified time reference and consistent amplitude, the continuous trajectory of source-load-storage disturbance is constructed to describe the dynamic evolution process of multi-side power change in time. In this process, the unified time reference is taken as the main line, and the direction of new energy output mutation, the response direction of load power and the adjustment direction of energy storage power are tracked point by point in time sequence. At each time node, it is recorded whether the new energy output change is rising or falling, whether the load power change is increasing or decreasing, and whether the energy storage device is charging, discharging or maintaining stationary. Subsequently, these time nodes are connected in sequence to form a time sequence trajectory curve of multi-side disturbance. The curve continuously extends in time dimension and reflects the real-time relationship of source-load-storage three sides in power dimension. For example, when the new energy output decreases in a short time, if the load power remains stable and the energy storage power rapidly rises, the curve presents a storage compensation trend in the corresponding time period. Through this continuous recording, the interaction of power change of each side at each time can be clearly presented. In order to maintain the integrity of the disturbance trajectory, the power change direction is continuously transitioned on the time line for the connection of the front and rear time slices. For the case that there is a time lag between the sharp change of new energy output and the response of energy storage, the time nodes are sequentially delayed to maintain the time sequence consistency in the disturbance trajectory. After this process, the source side fluctuation, load side power fluctuation and energy storage power regulation are completely connected into a time-continuous disturbance trajectory, which shows the evolution process of multi-source disturbance.

[0023] After completing the disturbance trajectory construction, the three types of power change data are time series fused under a unified time reference to generate the final time series disturbance band. In this step, with the unified time reference as the core, the new energy output mutation trajectory, the load power fluctuation trajectory, and the energy storage power change trajectory are stacked in time sequence to form a continuous multi-side disturbance record in the time dimension. Through this stacking, each time node contains new energy output change value, load power change value, and energy storage power change value, which constitute the disturbance state description of the time node. When a plurality of continuous time nodes are connected, all the disturbance states form a complete disturbance band structure on the time axis. The disturbance band has time continuity and disturbance synchronicity, and can reflect the dynamic relationship of the source, load and storage in the entire time interval. In actual modeling process, the time series disturbance band is used as a unified time reference for new energy output uncertainty modeling, and its continuity ensures the accuracy of the time causal relationship in subsequent risk identification and coordinated control. Through the time series disturbance band, the synchronization characteristics between new energy output change, load change and energy storage change can be directly observed. For example, when the new energy output rapidly decreases and the energy storage discharges immediately increases, the disturbance band shows a continuous shift of energy release sequence in this period; when the load power increases for a short time and the energy storage responds with a lag, there is an energy lag compensation segment in the disturbance band. Through this continuous description, the mutual influence relationship between source, load and storage is clearly displayed in the time dimension.

[0024] The time series disturbance band is used to jointly label the multi-source power changes in the same time window, identify the synchronization risk points of the multi-source power changes, extract the trigger sequence of the power changes, and generate an overlay risk list corresponding to the time series disturbance band, which is used to represent the coupling relationship between the source side, load side and energy storage side disturbances. This step is based on the constructed time series disturbance band, which comprehensively describes the dynamic coupling relationship between the new energy output side, load side and energy storage side power disturbances by determining the time window, jointly labeling the power changes, identifying the synchronization risk points and extracting the trigger sequence, and finally generating the overlay risk list, providing a data basis and time reference for subsequent time series rearrangement and rhythmic regulation. The specific implementation process is as follows: On the basis of the time series disturbance band, a time window for joint analysis is established to ensure that new energy output change, load power change and energy storage power change can be observed simultaneously within the same time range. The length of the time window is determined according to the main change period of the new energy output fluctuation, usually covering a plurality of continuous sampling periods to capture the complete process of power change. In this process, the time series disturbance band is divided into a plurality of continuous and non-overlapping time segments, each of which is a time window. The start time and end time of each time window are seamlessly connected with the previous and next windows, forming a continuous analysis sequence on the time axis.

[0025] In each time window, the disturbance characteristics of new energy output, load power and energy storage power are extracted. The disturbance characteristics of new energy output include output surge, output sudden drop and short-period fluctuation; the disturbance characteristics of load power include power rapid rise, power slow drop and irregular power change; the disturbance characteristics of energy storage power include state of charge change, state of discharge change and energy maintenance process. For the new energy output curve, the power is rising, falling or stable by judging the power change trend between consecutive sampling points; for the load power, the load response characteristics are determined by analyzing the change speed of the power curve; for the energy storage power, the flow direction of energy storage energy is reflected by tracking the positive and negative changes of charging and discharging power. In this way, the time characteristic set of three types of power changes can be formed to provide basic data for subsequent joint labeling.

[0026] After the time window and the disturbance characteristics are determined, the new energy output, load power and energy storage power changes in each time window are jointly labeled to determine the synchronicity and relevance between different power change processes. Joint labeling takes time as the basis, and the change direction of new energy output as the reference axis. The change direction of load power and energy storage power in the same time period is corresponded. In the specific implementation process, the new energy output change in each time window is divided into three states: power rise, power drop and power stability. When the new energy output power rises, it is observed whether the load power rises or falls at the same time, and the corresponding state is recorded; when the new energy output drops, the response behavior of the energy storage power is recorded, such as whether the energy storage enters the discharge state, the change amplitude of the discharge power and the response duration; when the new energy output remains stable, it is recorded whether the load power and the energy storage power exist slight changes to identify potential small disturbance coupling. Through the above joint labeling, the corresponding state of multi-source power change in each time window can be obtained. For example, when the new energy output drops, the load power rises and the energy storage power discharges, the joint labeling result is new energy drop-load rise-energy discharge enhancement; when the new energy output rises, the load power drops and the energy storage power changes from discharge to charge, the joint labeling result is new energy rise-load drop-energy charge. The joint labeling result of each time window retains the complete time stamp, power change direction and duration to support subsequent risk identification and trigger sequence extraction.

[0027] After obtaining the complete joint labeling results, the power change relationship in each time window is compared, the key moments of time overlap or mutual influence of multi-source power change are identified, and the trigger sequence is extracted. The synchronous risk point refers to the moment when the new energy output, load power and energy storage power change simultaneously or continuously in a very short time range, which may cause energy distribution imbalance or adjustment response conflict. In the identification process, first, the change of new energy output is taken as the starting point, and the corresponding load power change and energy storage power change are analyzed slice by slice. When the new energy output decreases rapidly in a short time, if the load power has an upward trend in a very short time, and the energy storage power is in discharging state at the same time, this moment is identified as a synchronous risk point. If the new energy output fluctuates, the energy storage power response has a delay, and the load power change occurs in advance, then this moment is marked as a non-synchronous risk point, and the delay time and response duration are recorded to evaluate the difference between the two sides. After identifying the risk points, the trigger sequence of each risk point is extracted. Taking the change of new energy output as the first trigger event, the energy storage power response as the second trigger event, and the load power change as the third trigger event, a complete trigger chain is formed. When the new energy output mutation and the energy storage response occur at the same time, the trigger priority will be determined according to the response direction. For example, when the new energy output decreases and the energy storage discharging increases, the energy storage response is recorded as passive trigger; when the new energy output rises and the energy storage charging increases immediately, the energy storage response is recorded as active trigger. Through this continuous trigger relationship extraction, the causal relationship of multi-source power change in time dimension can be clearly described, providing structured data for subsequent risk analysis.

[0028] After completing the synchronization risk point identification and trigger sequence extraction, the joint annotation results in all time windows are integrated to generate a superimposed risk list corresponding to each time sequence disturbance. The superimposed risk list is a collection of multi-source risk events arranged in chronological order, used to record the associated changes of new energy output, load power and energy storage power in the entire observation period. In constructing the superimposed risk list, the risk events in each time window are arranged in chronological order, and the change direction, change amplitude of new energy output, energy storage response direction, energy storage energy change, load power change trend and trigger interval between events are recorded. Each risk record contains time identification, change direction, response relationship and influence duration, representing the coupling characteristics of source side, load side and energy storage side disturbance. In this way, a complete risk time sequence can be formed to reflect the transmission path of power disturbance in the time dimension. For example, when new energy output decreases, energy storage discharges increases, and load power increases in multiple consecutive time windows, the superimposed risk list will show a continuous "power compensation chain" structure, indicating that there is a continuous energy compensation relationship in this time period. If new energy output fluctuates frequently, energy storage response direction switches continuously, and load power changes lag in multiple consecutive time windows, the list will show an "alternating response chain" structure, reflecting the high-frequency disturbance coupling between source, load and storage. By analyzing the density and duration of risk events in the superimposed risk list, the correlation strength between different power changes can be evaluated, revealing the coordination relationship between new energy output, load power and energy storage power. Finally, the superimposed risk list forms a time mapping structure that reflects the coupling characteristics of multi-source power changes, making new energy output uncertainty modeling no longer focus on single source fluctuation, but can include load response and energy storage adjustment behavior in a unified time sequence description, realizing systematic expression of multi-source disturbance relationship. Through the list, the fluctuation characteristics of new energy output, the response delay characteristics of load and the energy balance characteristics of energy storage are unified into a continuous time sequence framework, providing accurate time sequence basis and correlation basis for subsequent inverse phase sequence scheduling, energy rhythm construction and low-carbon priority regulation.

[0029] According to the superimposed risk list, the risk nodes are rearranged in time sequence to establish an inverse phase sequence scheduling queue, determine the intervention order of each adjustment resource according to the rhythm of first relieving and then forcing, form a continuous rhythm reference frame, and guide the time sequence cooperation of multi-side power regulation. The step is based on the risk nodes of the new energy output change, the load power change and the energy storage power change recorded in the superimposed risk list. Through the extraction and classification of risk nodes, the identification of risk dependence, the rearrangement of time series and the establishment of rhythm reference frame, an inverse phase sequence scheduling structure is formed, which can be used to guide the multi-side power regulation sequence and time rhythm, so as to realize the coordination of power change process slow release and force increase, and make the power regulation of source, load and storage three sides form unified rhythm cooperation in time dimension. The specific implementation process is as follows: After the construction of the superimposed risk list is completed, the risk node information is extracted from the list. Each risk node represents an event of energy imbalance or dynamic coupling between new energy output, load power and energy storage power within a time window. The extracted risk node information includes time position, new energy output change direction, new energy output change amplitude, load power change direction, load power change duration, energy storage power change trend, energy storage energy change amount and trigger sequence of three-side power change. Through reading these information, the specific process of energy change in each time period can be completely restored. After extraction, all risk nodes are classified according to power change characteristics for ordered sorting in subsequent steps. When classifying, the dominant source of power change is taken as the standard, and the risk nodes are divided into three types: (1) New energy dominant risk node, characterized by large increase or decrease of new energy output power in a short time, which has the strongest impact on overall power balance; (2) Load dominant risk node, characterized by rapid change or pulse fluctuation of load power in a short period, which brings passive disturbance to energy distribution; (3) Energy storage dominant risk node, characterized by rapid switching of energy storage charge and discharge power or increase of energy change rate, which directly adjusts energy balance. After classification, all risk nodes are preliminarily arranged on the time axis according to time sequence, so that each node maintains the same order as the original power change in time dimension, forming an initial risk node sequence. The sequence provides a reference for the subsequent time rearrangement and inverse phase sequence construction.

[0030] After the preliminary classification, the time-dependent relationship between different risk nodes needs to be determined to reveal the propagation path of energy changes over time. For this purpose, the power change direction, power change amplitude and time interval between adjacent risk nodes are analyzed in turn. By comparing the change trend of new energy output, load power and energy storage power in the continuous time window, the interaction between risk nodes can be determined. When the change direction of new energy output in adjacent risk nodes is opposite, it indicates that there is a reverse energy flow relationship between the two nodes; when the change direction of new energy output is the same but the change direction of energy storage power is opposite, it indicates that energy storage undertakes the energy balance function between the front and rear nodes; when the load power in the two adjacent nodes changes in the same direction, but the change amplitude of energy storage power is significantly different, it indicates that the load side power change is transmitted over time with a delay, while the energy storage response occurs in advance. Through this comparison method, the energy transmission path between nodes can be identified. After identifying these time-dependent relationships, nodes with energy coupling characteristics are connected in time sequence to form a continuous energy transmission chain. Each energy transmission chain represents a dynamic response process of power change, including energy release phase, energy transfer phase and energy absorption phase. For example, when the new energy output rapidly decreases, the energy storage power immediately increases, and the load power subsequently decreases, this process forms a typical energy compensation chain; when the new energy output increases, the energy storage power changes from discharging to charging, and the load power slightly increases, this process forms an energy recharge chain. Each energy transmission chain needs to be marked with the starting node, ending node, energy change direction and duration to ensure that the energy transmission relationship has clear cause-and-effect logic on the time axis. In this way, all risk nodes are reorganized into multiple energy transmission chains with physical meaning according to the energy change direction, providing a structured basis for subsequent establishment of reverse phase sequence scheduling queue.

[0031] After identifying the energy transfer chain, each risk node in the chain is rearranged in time to form an inverse-phase sequence scheduling queue that conforms to the rhythm of energy regulation. The core idea of rearrangement is to adjust the order of risk nodes according to the principle of slow release first and then force, based on the sequence of energy release and absorption, so that the power regulation action forms a gradual rhythm change in time. In specific implementation, each energy transfer chain is regarded as an independent regulation process, with new energy dominant nodes as the starting point of the chain, and energy storage dominant nodes and load dominant nodes as the response part. If the new energy output shows a downward trend in the chain, the energy storage discharge node is arranged first to preferentially release the power gap in the energy shortage stage; then the load power reduction node is arranged to extend the slow release effect; when the new energy output recovers, the energy storage charging node and the load power recovery node are arranged at the end of the chain to gradually increase the force to restore balance. Conversely, if the new energy output shows an upward trend in the chain, the energy storage charging node is placed in the front part first to absorb excess energy, and then the load power increase node is arranged to share the energy absorption; when the new energy output recovers smoothly, the energy storage discharge node is placed at the end of the chain to ensure gradual energy release. In this way, the originally time-sequenced risk nodes are reorganized into an inverse-phase sequence scheduling queue that conforms to the energy flow direction. In the structure of the inverse-phase sequence scheduling queue, the front nodes are responsible for slow release, the rear nodes are responsible for force, and the intermediate nodes realize transition and balance. The order formed in this way ensures that power regulation is no longer performed simultaneously, but is carried out sequentially in time, so that the energy flow has rhythm and hierarchy, and avoids the occurrence of superimposed impact in the power regulation process.

[0032] After the construction of the reverse phase sequence scheduling queue is completed, the rhythm reference frame is established based on the rearranged node order, and the intervention order of various types of regulation resources is determined. The rhythm reference frame is a time series-based power regulation rhythm framework used to regulate the response time, duration, and regulation amplitude of the source side, load side, and energy storage side during the power regulation process. In the construction of the rhythm reference frame, the rhythm position of each risk node is first determined. The slow-release node in the reverse phase sequence scheduling queue is taken as the starting segment of the rhythm reference frame, and the energy storage discharge behavior is taken as the first rhythm point, so that the energy storage energy release behavior intervenes at the initial stage of new energy output decline and quickly relieves the energy gap. Secondly, the load power change node is arranged in the middle segment of the rhythm reference frame, so that the load power regulation behavior is launched after the energy storage slow-release stage, and the slow-release process is further extended by reducing the power consumption of non-critical loads. Thirdly, the new energy output recovery node and the energy storage charging node are arranged in the end segment of the rhythm reference frame, so that energy absorption and recovery are performed in the late stage of power fluctuation, thereby realizing energy balance closure. In addition, in the construction of the rhythm reference frame, the duration and amplitude of each node also need to be determined. For example, when the new energy output decline amplitude is large, the duration of the energy storage discharge stage is extended, and the load power decline stage is correspondingly shortened; when the new energy output rise amplitude is large, the energy storage charging stage time is appropriately extended to absorb excess energy. By adjusting the duration of each node, the entire rhythm frame can be kept smooth and connected, ensuring the continuous transition of energy regulation in time. After the establishment of the rhythm reference frame, the intervention order of the energy storage unit, the load regulation unit, and the new energy output scheduling unit is determined. The energy storage unit always responds to short-term power fluctuations first, the load regulation behavior is responsible for maintaining medium-term balance, and the new energy output scheduling behavior completes the long-term recovery process. The three types of resources execute their respective regulation tasks in turn according to the time nodes of the rhythm reference frame, making the power change process transition from the initial slow-release to the late force, forming an energy regulation mode with rhythm continuity.

[0033] The energy buffer structure is configured around the rhythm reference frame, and the overshoot absorption zone is formed through the alternating process of energy compression and energy release in the rhythm change process, so that the power fluctuation is orderly absorbed and released within the buffer structure, thereby maintaining the balance and continuity of the new energy output modeling process; This step takes the rhythm reference frame as the main line of time control, constructs a two-way energy transfer path of energy compression and energy release by determining the time range and power boundary of the energy buffer interval, and forms an overshoot absorption zone with sustained absorption and delayed release capability throughout the rhythm change process, so that the power fluctuation is dynamically balanced within the energy buffer structure, maintaining the continuity and stability of the new energy output modeling process. The specific implementation steps are as follows: After the rhythm reference frame is formed, the specific time range, energy capacity and power variation characteristics of the energy buffer interval need to be determined according to the time law of power variation in the rhythm period, so as to ensure that the energy buffer structure can completely cover the power fluctuation stage in one or more rhythm periods. The energy buffer interval refers to a continuous time period in the rhythm period for absorbing or releasing power deviation. The interval is determined by dividing the power rising section and the power falling section in the rhythm frame. Specifically, the peak point and the valley point of the new energy output power in the rhythm frame are identified, and the time range between the peak point and the valley point is defined as the energy release interval, and the time range between the valley point and the peak point is defined as the energy compression interval. The energy compression interval is used to absorb excess energy when the new energy output increases, and the energy release interval is used to release stored energy when the new energy output decreases. The two types of intervals are connected at the beginning and end of the time axis to form an energy two-way adjustment space. After determining the energy buffer interval, the interval needs to be time-corresponded with the rhythm reference frame. Each complete adjustment period in the rhythm reference frame includes a buffer release phase and a force adding phase, and the buffer release phase corresponds to the energy release interval, and the force adding phase corresponds to the energy compression interval. In order to realize accurate time alignment, the turning point (i.e. the position where the power variation direction is reversed) in the rhythm reference frame needs to be strictly matched with the boundary point of the energy buffer interval. The specific matching method is: when the rhythm reference frame enters the starting point of the buffer release phase, the energy release interval starts to take effect; when the rhythm reference frame turns from the buffer release phase to the force adding phase, the energy compression interval starts to start. Through this matching method, the energy flow and the rhythm beat are synchronized in time, so that the power variation process has time controllability and energy continuity. In addition, the power variation amplitude range also needs to be defined within each energy buffer interval, so as to ensure that the energy absorption and release behavior will not exceed the energy storage unit and the load adjustment capability. The upper limit of power variation is jointly defined by the maximum absorption power of the energy storage and the maximum responsive power of the load, and the lower limit of power variation is determined by the minimum discharge power of the energy storage and the minimum reducible power of the load. In this way, the energy buffer interval has constraints in time dimension and power dimension at the same time, which provides accurate operation space for the subsequent energy compression and release process.

[0034] After the energy buffer interval is determined, a bidirectional circulation path of energy compression and energy release is constructed to form a continuous closed-loop transmission relationship between the energy storage device, the load unit and the new energy output, so as to realize the dynamic balance of energy absorption and release. The establishment of the circulation path is a key step to ensure the continuous flow of energy in the process of rhythm change. In the construction of the energy compression path, the rising stage of the new energy output in the rhythm reference frame is taken as the time starting point. When the new energy output power increases and exceeds the load demand, the energy storage device starts to enter the charging state. The charging rate is adjusted synchronously according to the power rising rate in the energy buffer interval, so as to ensure that the energy absorption rate of the energy storage matches the change rate of the new energy output. At the same time, in order to prevent the energy storage from accumulating too fast and causing charging saturation, part of the flexible load such as electric heating device, refrigeration equipment or pumping equipment actively increases power consumption in the energy compression stage, absorbs the excess power by converting electric energy into heat energy, cold energy or potential energy, so that the energy absorption behavior is shared between the energy storage and the load. The energy compression path is therefore composed of three links in turn, namely the rising of the new energy output, the energy absorption of the energy storage and the energy absorption of the load, forming a one-way energy absorption path of energy flowing from the source side to the energy storage and the load side. In the construction of the energy release path, the falling stage of the new energy output in the rhythm reference frame is taken as the time starting point. When the new energy output decreases to cause insufficient power supply, the energy storage device switches from the charging state to the discharging state to make up for the power gap through energy release. The discharging rate of the energy storage is adjusted synchronously according to the power drop in the rhythm reference frame, so as to keep the release power balanced with the new energy output drop rate. At the same time, part of the adjustable load such as interruptible industrial load, lighting equipment or electric vehicle charging facility reduces power consumption to cooperate with the energy storage discharge to maintain the overall power balance. At this time, the energy release path is composed of three links, namely the falling of the new energy output, the discharging of the energy storage and the load reduction, forming a bidirectional energy release path of energy flowing from the energy storage and the load side to the overall power balance surface. In order to form a circulation relationship between the energy compression path and the energy release path, an energy transfer point needs to be established at the rhythm conversion node. The rhythm conversion node is located at the intersection of the energy compression interval and the energy release interval, representing the moment of reversing the direction of energy flow. When the rhythm frame changes from the force stage to the slow release stage, the energy storage charging behavior gradually slows down, and the internal energy of the energy storage gradually changes to the discharging preparation state; when the rhythm frame changes from the slow release stage to the force stage, the energy storage discharging behavior gradually stops, and the charging behavior restarts. Through this continuous switching mode, the energy compression path and the energy release path form a closed-loop energy transmission structure with the head and tail connected in time, realizing the circulation flow of energy between different rhythm stages.

[0035] After the energy compression and energy release paths form a closed loop, the energy buffer intervals of each rhythm cycle are connected continuously in the time dimension to form an overshoot absorption zone. The overshoot absorption zone is the comprehensive form of the energy buffer structure in the time and energy space. Its main role is to absorb the energy overshoot caused by power fluctuations and release it in an orderly manner with a time delay, thereby preventing energy concentration fluctuations from impacting the modeling process. The formation of the overshoot absorption zone is based on the time continuity of the rhythm reference frame, and the energy compression intervals and energy release intervals in multiple adjacent cycles are connected end to end. In the time axis, the overshoot absorption zone appears as a periodic waveform structure composed of continuous energy absorption segments and energy release segments. In the power dimension, the rising stage of the overshoot absorption zone corresponds to the energy compression behavior, i.e., the rising of new energy output triggers energy storage charging and load energy absorption; the falling stage corresponds to the energy release behavior, i.e., the falling of new energy output triggers energy storage discharging and load shedding. Through this continuous energy conversion, energy completes a periodic cycle from accumulation to release within the overshoot absorption zone. When the new energy output suddenly rises, the energy compression interval in the overshoot absorption zone responds immediately by quickly absorbing part of the power through energy storage and triggering an increase in load power to prevent power spikes caused by short-term energy surplus. When the new energy output rapidly decreases in a short period of time, the energy release interval compensates for the power deficiency through the combined action of energy storage discharging and load reduction to prevent energy faults. Since the overshoot absorption zone is continuous in time, its absorption and release behavior is not instantaneous but is spread out smoothly over consecutive rhythm cycles, allowing power fluctuations to be gradually digested. In the long-term operation process, the overshoot absorption zone also has the energy self-balancing characteristic. When the new energy output is generally high in consecutive cycles, the energy compression stage in the overshoot absorption zone is relatively prolonged, the energy storage absorption increases, and the load side energy absorption behavior is strengthened, thereby reserving more energy to cope with subsequent power decline periods. When the new energy output is generally low in consecutive cycles, the energy release stage in the overshoot absorption zone is prolonged, the energy storage discharging continues, and the load power is maintained at a low level to reduce energy consumption, thereby compensating for the long-term energy deficiency. Through this energy buffering and absorption mechanism, power fluctuations are no longer directly transmitted to the modeling subject, but are absorbed and released in an orderly manner in the form of energy in the overshoot absorption zone, achieving internalized balance of power fluctuations. Ultimately, the overshoot absorption zone forms a continuous energy regulation layer in time, allowing the new energy output modeling process to remain balanced and continuous under the alternating action of energy compression and release, providing a stable energy basis and predictable power response space for subsequent low-carbon priority regulation and phase traction regulation.

[0036] Relying on the overshoot absorption zone to set a low-carbon priority regulation entry, determining the lead intervention sequence of the energy storage unit and the load response unit, achieving a small amplitude response in the initial power deviation, establishing a zero bias entry, and ensuring that the regulation behavior conforms to the low-carbon operation constraints and maintains regulation continuity; The step is based on the energy structure of the formed overshoot absorption zone, by establishing a low-carbon priority regulation entry, defining the lead intervention sequence of the energy storage unit and the load response unit, and organizing accurate micro-energy response at the initial power deviation, to establish a zero-bias entry in the energy dynamic process, realize balanced regulation under low-carbon constraint, and make the entire energy regulation behavior consistent in time, power and carbon emission dimensions. The specific implementation process is as follows: After the formation and stable operation of the overshoot absorption zone, it is necessary to establish a low-carbon priority regulation entry in the energy flow structure to control the energy regulation direction and response sequence at the initial power deviation. The low-carbon priority regulation entry is the starting point of the initial triggering of energy distribution in the entire coordinated regulation process, and its core function is to ensure that the regulation behavior is dominated by low-carbon resources, so that the system preferentially uses the response capability of energy storage and load side at the first moment of power fluctuation, rather than relying on high-emission regulation mode, thereby ensuring the cleanliness of new energy dominant operation. In the establishment process, first, the time structure of the overshoot absorption zone is analyzed to identify the intersection point between the energy compression area and the energy release area. The intersection point represents the transition of energy from absorption to release, and is the time node at which the power balance relationship is about to reverse. Taking this intersection point as a reference, a response advance area is set on the time axis to capture the initial signal of power deviation. The duration of the response advance area is determined by the new energy output change rate, the energy storage energy response time delay and the load response inertia, and usually covers the shortest period of time before the power change in the rhythm reference frame, to ensure that the regulation entry has energy response capability before the power fluctuation occurs. Then, an energy import path is established in the spatial structure to connect the low-carbon priority regulation entry and the energy core area of the overshoot absorption zone. The energy import path is composed of energy storage energy exchange chain and load energy access chain. The energy storage energy exchange chain undertakes the task of short-time energy absorption or release, and its energy flow direction is opposite to the direction of new energy output change; the load energy access chain undertakes the function of power refinement adjustment, and by increasing or decreasing the load power, the power deviation is relieved in a local range. By establishing a two-way energy flow mechanism in the energy import path, the low-carbon priority regulation entry can introduce excess energy into the energy storage absorption end at the initial power deviation, or trigger the energy release end and load reduction behavior simultaneously when energy is insufficient, thereby forming a complete energy import structure. To ensure the stability of the energy import path, the energy storage and load branches need to be time-synchronized at the low-carbon priority regulation entry. The synchronization method is: when the new energy output rises, the energy storage absorption behavior and the load power increase behavior are started simultaneously in time; when the new energy output decreases, the energy storage discharge behavior and the load reduction behavior are triggered simultaneously in time. This can ensure that the direction of energy flow is always in balanced control, and there will be no delay or reverse response, ensuring that the low-carbon priority regulation entry has immediate and sustainable energy regulation capability under the guidance of the overshoot absorption zone.

[0037] After the establishment of the low-carbon priority regulation entry, it is necessary to clarify the leading intervention sequence of the energy storage unit and the load response unit in the energy import path to form a time-level clear and energy-direction consistent cooperative response mechanism. The energy storage unit and the load response unit are two core executive subjects of the low-carbon priority regulation entry, and their intervention sequence directly determines the stability of the regulation behavior and the rationality of the energy distribution. In determining the leading sequence, the energy storage unit is first set as the leading response link. The energy storage unit has the ability of bidirectional energy regulation and can switch from the charging state to the discharging state or from the discharging state to the charging state in a very short time, so it is set as the first response unit of the regulation entry. When the new energy output rises and the system has excess energy, the energy storage unit starts the charging process at a low power rate to convert the excess energy into internal energy. At this time, the energy flow direction is from the source side to the energy storage unit, forming an energy compression flow. When the new energy output decreases and the system has insufficient energy, the energy storage unit releases energy in the form of micro-discharge to compensate for the initial power offset, forming an energy release flow. Through the rapid regulation of the energy storage unit, the power fluctuation is reduced to a low amplitude range in the initial stage, creating stable conditions for the intervention of the load response unit. The load response unit intervenes after the energy storage unit completes the initial energy absorption or release, forming a second-level response behavior. The regulation mode of the load response unit is divided into two categories: one is positive response, which means that when the new energy output increases and the energy storage is close to the upper limit of energy absorption, the load response unit actively increases power consumption to convert the remaining energy into available power, such as building cooling load, electric heating load, or delayable industrial load; the other is reverse response, which means that when the new energy output decreases and the energy storage discharges close to the lower limit, the load response unit actively reduces power demand to achieve energy release extension by reducing part of the non-critical load, such as delaying electric vehicle charging, reducing non-production lighting intensity, and suspending auxiliary power equipment operation. In order to avoid overlapping or direction conflict between the energy storage unit and the load response unit, a clear response interval needs to be set in time. The response start time of the energy storage unit is the first rhythmic response period of the initial power offset, and the response start time of the load response unit is the starting point of the next rhythmic stage after the energy storage unit completes the regulation. This time sequence connection relationship between energy storage and load ensures the natural transition of energy from high-sensitivity regulation to time-delay balance regulation, making the entire low-carbon priority regulation entry present a cooperative rhythm of fast response first and stable regulation later in time, which meets the dual constraints of low-carbon priority and energy variation.

[0038] After the intervention sequence of the energy storage unit and the load response unit is determined, a zero-bias entry is established through the micro-adjustment behavior of the two at the initial stage of power offset, so as to realize the balanced start and continuous transition of the adjustment behavior under the low-carbon constraint. The zero-bias entry is a key balance point in the entire energy buffer system, and its function is to control the system offset value in a very small range through micro energy adjustment when the power offset just occurs, so as to keep the power change continuous in the time dimension and avoid mutation. At the initial stage of the micro offset of the new energy output, the energy storage unit first carries out micro power adjustment. If the new energy output shows an upward trend, the energy storage unit enters the charging state at a low rate; if the new energy output shows a downward trend, the energy storage unit releases energy at a low rate. The charging and discharging rate of the energy storage unit is set according to the power change rate proportion in the rhythm reference frame, so as to ensure that the energy adjustment process is synchronized with the output change process. In this stage, the energy flow amplitude of the energy storage unit usually remains within a few percent of the rhythm power amplitude, so as to ensure that the energy adjustment process will not cause a jump in the system power curve. When the micro adjustment of the energy storage unit is completed, the load response unit enters the cooperative response stage to further stabilize the power curve through fine adjustment. When the new energy output is excessive, the load response unit absorbs the energy not fully absorbed by the energy storage unit by increasing the power consumption of the electrical equipment, so that the energy flow gradually balances; when the new energy output is insufficient, the load response unit reduces the overall energy demand by reducing the operating power of the non-critical equipment, so that the energy released by the energy storage can be fully distributed in the system. The joint response of the energy storage and the load makes the slope of the system power change curve gradually slow down, forming a symmetrical structure of energy absorption and release. In this process, the low-carbon priority regulation entry ensures that the energy regulation is completely borne by the low-carbon resources by controlling the response sequence and energy direction of the energy storage and the load. Since the energy adjustment process of the energy storage does not involve fossil fuel consumption, and the response behavior of the load side only adjusts the power demand without generating new emissions, the entire regulation process maintains the minimization of carbon emissions while achieving power balance. As the energy adjustment process of the energy storage and the load enters the steady state stage, the energy flow forms a smooth transition zone in the time dimension, and the new energy output, the energy storage power change and the load power response gradually converge in the power dimension, and finally form a zero-bias state at the low-carbon priority regulation entry. The establishment of the zero-bias entry enables the power offset to be compressed to the near-zero interval at the initial stage of adjustment, and the energy absorption and release are completely symmetrical in time, and the entire power change process visually appears as a smooth transition curve. This result ensures the continuity and balance of the new energy output uncertainty modeling process under the low-carbon constraint, and provides an accurate, stable and green energy response basis for subsequent phase traction regulation.

[0039] The phase traction regulation is implemented based on the zero-bias inlet, the net load change trend is dynamically traction adjusted, the micro energy release of the energy storage unit is guided, and the fine step power adjustment of the load unit is driven, so that the source-load-storage collaborative regulation process continuously moves away from the power overshoot shock interval in dynamic operation, and the stability and controllability of the new energy output uncertainty modeling are realized. This step takes the zero-bias inlet as the energy balance starting point, identifies the net load change trend, sets the phase traction control interval, organizes the micro energy release of the energy storage unit, guides the fine step power adjustment of the load unit, and finally forms the source-load-storage collaborative stability interval, so as to realize the synchronous evolution of multi-side power in time dimension and energy dimension, and keep the long-term balance, continuity and controllability of the whole new energy output uncertainty modeling process in dynamic operation. The specific implementation process is as follows: After establishing the zero-bias inlet, the continuous time sequence data of new energy output, load power and energy storage power are comprehensively analyzed to identify the net load change trend, and the phase traction reference direction corresponding to the trend is established. The net load change trend reflects the overall direction of energy flow in the power balance process of the system, and is the basis for determining the dominant phase of phase traction regulation. In the identification process, the time node corresponding to the zero-bias inlet is taken as the power balance starting point, and the new energy output power curve, load power curve and energy storage power curve are continuously recorded. By analyzing the change direction and rate of the three types of power curves in the continuous time period, the increasing or decreasing direction of the net load can be determined. For example, when the new energy output continues to increase and the load power rises slowly, and the energy storage device is in the charging state, the system shows energy surplus, and the net load shows a downward trend; when the new energy output decreases faster than the load power, and the energy storage device is in the discharging state, the system shows energy deficiency, and the net load shows an upward trend. If the new energy output change and the load change direction are the same and the energy storage energy change rate is low, the net load change rate tends to be slow, and the system is in a stable fluctuation state. After identifying the change direction of the net load, the phase traction reference direction needs to be established to determine the phase orientation of subsequent energy regulation. The phase traction reference direction is a directional description of the power change rhythm in the time dimension, which is used to determine the synchronous direction of energy flow and load adjustment. If the net load shows an upward trend, the phase traction reference direction is defined as positive traction, i.e. the energy release direction; if the net load shows a downward trend, the phase traction reference direction is defined as reverse traction, i.e. the energy absorption direction. In this way, the energy response of the energy storage and the load can always be developed along the phase traction direction, providing a unified energy flow reference for subsequent rhythm regulation.

[0040] After the determination of the phase traction reference direction, the phase traction control interval needs to be set in the time dimension, and the rhythm traction window needs to be established in the control interval to ensure that the energy storage and load can accurately follow the change trend of the net load in the time sequence, and avoid the amplification of power fluctuation caused by response lag. The setting of the phase traction control interval takes the rhythm reference frame as the time frame, covering the complete process of power change. Each rhythm cycle is divided into three stages: the rising section, the stable section and the falling section. If the net load is in an upward trend, the phase traction control interval is set in the first half of the rhythm cycle, so that the energy storage discharges and the load reduces in advance. If the net load is in a downward trend, the phase traction control interval is set in the second half of the rhythm cycle, so that the energy storage absorbs and the load increases in the late stage of power decline. In this way, the adjustment behavior can be kept in time synchronization with the power change, and the risk of overshoot can be fundamentally reduced. In the phase traction control interval, the rhythm traction window is established to guide the energy storage and load to respond in stages on the time axis. The rhythm traction window is divided into three stages according to the change rate of the net load as the core parameter: the front section is the trend capturing area, which is used to identify the direction of the initial power change; the middle section is the synchronous traction area, which is used for the energy storage and load to make a slight adjustment according to the phase reference direction; the rear section is the delay compensation area, which is used to correct the power residual after energy adjustment, so as to make the overall energy curve smooth and return to balance. Through this rhythm division, the energy storage and load can perform different energy response tasks in each time section, so that the entire phase traction process has continuous time structure and dynamic flexibility.

[0041] After the determination of the rhythm traction window, the energy storage unit is organized according to the change trend of the net load to release or absorb a small amount of energy, so as to realize the immediate balance of energy in the initial stage of power fluctuation, and maintain the continuity and smoothness of the power curve in the time dimension. When the net load is in an upward trend, the energy storage unit releases energy at a low power rate, and the size of the released power is adjusted gradually according to the change rate of the net load. In the initial stage of power rise, the energy storage release rate is low to avoid system shock caused by sudden increase of power; in the middle stage of power rise, the energy storage release rate is moderately increased to offset the power gap; in the late stage of power rise, the energy storage release rate is gradually reduced to restore the power to the balance level. When the net load is in a downward trend, the energy storage unit absorbs energy in the same way, absorbs energy at a low rate in the initial stage of power decline, gradually increases the absorption rate in the middle stage, and slowly reduces the absorption amplitude in the late stage, so as to keep the energy flow direction consistent with the phase traction direction. The energy storage unit needs to maintain the continuity of energy flow during the process of releasing or absorbing a small amount of energy. Therefore, the energy storage unit adjusts energy at a fixed time interval in the phase traction control interval, and the energy change amplitude between each adjustment period remains stable to avoid energy mutation. The flow path of the energy storage energy is always consistent with the phase traction reference direction, so that the energy storage plays the role of energy release and energy absorption in the entire rhythm cycle, and realizes the softening and stability of power fluctuation.

[0042] After the preliminary response of the energy storage unit to the micro energy release or absorption, the load unit needs to adjust the power in small steps according to the phase traction reference direction to compensate for the residual power deviation of the system after energy storage adjustment, so that the power change process is more refined and stable. In the net load rising stage, the load unit participates in adjustment in the form of power reduction. First, in the initial stage of power rise, non-critical loads such as building lighting, air conditioning units and auxiliary power equipment are selected for power reduction, and the reduction amplitude is small, which is used to balance the initial energy released by the energy storage; secondly, in the middle stage of power rise, the power of interruptible loads such as non-continuous production equipment or part of electric transport equipment is further adjusted, and the power consumption is reduced by reducing the running intensity; finally, in the late stage of power rise, the running rhythm of the key load is fine-tuned to reduce the power peak value, so that the overall power is balanced. In the net load falling stage, the load unit participates in adjustment in the form of power increase. First, in the initial stage of power drop, the previously reduced low-priority load is restored, so that the energy consumption rises gently; secondly, in the middle stage of power drop, the running power of interruptible loads such as cooling systems or water pump equipment is gradually increased, so that the power demand matches the energy absorption rate of the energy storage; finally, in the late stage of power drop, the running power of high-priority loads is increased to gradually balance the system power demand with the new energy output. In the whole process of small-step power adjustment, the action frequency of the load unit is synchronized with the energy change frequency of the energy storage unit, and the power adjustment direction is always consistent with the phase traction reference direction. The energy storage and the load form a front and back connection relationship, the energy storage dominates the initial response of the power, the load dominates the fine-tuning of the power in the later stage, and the two form a continuous energy regulation chain, ensuring that the power curve has no mutation and no reverse fluctuation, and realizing smooth transition.

[0043] After the continuous adjustment of the energy storage unit and the load unit according to the phase traction direction is completed, a source-load-storage collaborative stable interval is formed. The stable interval is a dynamic balance region realized in time and energy dimensions, which represents that the system running state is out of the power overshoot shock interval and enters the sustainable controllable stage. In the source-load-storage collaborative stable interval, the change of new energy output is smoothed by the energy absorption or release behavior of the energy storage, and the energy change of the energy storage is continuously compensated by the power fine adjustment of the load. The new energy output, the energy storage power and the load power keep synchronous fluctuation in time and mutual restriction in amplitude. The power curve presents periodic slight fluctuation characteristics in each rhythm cycle, and high-frequency oscillation is not generated. In order to maintain the long-term dynamic balance of the stable interval, the system automatically updates the phase traction reference direction and the rhythm traction window at the end of each rhythm cycle. When the new energy output trend reverses, the energy flow direction of the energy storage unit is automatically switched, and the power adjustment strategy of the load unit is executed in reverse, forming a new balance cycle. Through the continuous phase traction regulation mechanism, the source side, the load side and the energy storage side form a self-adaptive dynamic coordination system in the energy flow process, so that the new energy output uncertainty modeling can continuously maintain energy balance, power stability and sustainable regulation in actual operation, thereby providing long-term support for operation safety and low-carbon scheduling in the high proportion of new energy grid-connected scenarios.

[0044] The present application can realize accurate identification and sequential reconstruction of multi-side energy disturbance in the initial stage of power change by constructing a source-load-storage disturbance co-time account under the same time reference and generating a time sequence disturbance band and a superimposed risk list based thereon, so as to realize unified dynamic correlation of new energy output, load fluctuation and energy storage state, and fundamentally eliminate the time sequence misplacement problem of power response. Through inverse phase sequence scheduling and rhythm reference frame construction, the power regulation process is changed from passive compensation to active rhythm response, so that each regulation resource forms a front and back connection relationship in the time dimension, thereby effectively inhibiting the accumulation and conduction of power overshoot and ensuring the stability and consistency of energy regulation behavior in continuous operation.

[0045] The present application can realize early intervention and collaborative regulation of the energy storage unit and the load response unit in the initial stage of power deviation by configuring an energy buffer structure under the rhythm reference frame and introducing a low-carbon priority regulation entrance and a phase traction regulation mode, so as to avoid the accumulation of high-frequency oscillation. The energy flow keeps dynamic balance between compression and release, and the complementary regulation of the small amount of energy release of the energy storage and the fine adjustment of the load forms a complementary regulation, so that the system running state is always away from the overshoot shock interval in dynamic evolution, thereby realizing the stability improvement of new energy output uncertainty modeling and the unity of low-carbon operation target.

[0046] The foregoing merely illustrates some exemplary embodiments of the application, and no doubt numerous modifications and alterations thereto will be apparent to those skilled in the art. Accordingly, the above description is intended for purposes of illustration only and should not be construed as limiting the scope of the application.

Claims

1. A new energy output uncertainty modeling method considering source-load-storage coordination, characterized in that, The method comprises the following steps: A source-load-storage disturbance co-time ledger is constructed, new energy output mutation data, load power fluctuation data and storage operation state data are aligned according to a unified time reference, and a time sequence disturbance band is generated; The time sequence disturbance band is used to jointly label the multi-source power changes in the same time window, identify the synchronization risk points of the multi-source power changes, extract the trigger sequence of the power changes, and generate an overlay risk list corresponding to the time sequence disturbance band; According to the overlay risk list, the time sequence of each risk node is rearranged, an inverse phase sequence scheduling queue is established, the intervention sequence of each adjusting resource is determined according to the rhythm of first slow release and then force, and a rhythm reference frame is formed; An energy buffer structure is configured around the rhythm reference frame, an overshoot absorption band is formed through the alternating process of energy compression and energy release in the rhythm change process, and power fluctuations are orderly absorbed and released in the buffer structure; A low-carbon priority regulation entrance is set up relying on the overshoot absorption band, the leading intervention sequence of the storage unit and the load response unit is determined, a micro-amplitude response is realized in the initial stage of power deviation, and a zero-bias entrance is established; Based on the zero-bias entrance, phase traction regulation is implemented, the net load change trend is dynamically pulled to adjust the rhythm, the storage unit is guided to release a small amount of energy, and the load unit is driven to adjust the power in small steps, so that the source-load-storage collaborative regulation process continuously moves away from the power overshoot shock interval in dynamic operation. 2.The method of claim 1, wherein, The time sequence disturbance band generation step is as follows: The new energy output mutation data, load power fluctuation data and storage operation state data are aligned according to a unified time reference, a common time reference is established through time interpolation and time node matching, and the three types of power change data have synchronization in the time dimension; On the basis of the unified time reference, amplitude scale consistency processing is performed, the power change data of each type is converted into relative power change value, and the different side power changes have comparability according to the unified reference power; Based on the unified time reference and amplitude consistency data, the continuous trajectory of source-load-storage disturbance is constructed, the new energy output change, load power change and storage power regulation direction are tracked in time sequence, and the continuous time sequence curve of multi-side power change is formed; The three types of power change data are time sequence fused, the new energy output trajectory, load power trajectory and storage power trajectory are superimposed, and a time-continuous time sequence disturbance band is generated.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the method further comprises: The overlay risk list generation step is as follows: A time window for joint analysis is established, the time sequence disturbance band is divided into continuous and non-overlapping time sections, so that each time window can simultaneously contain the whole process of new energy output change, load power change and storage power change; In each time window, the disturbance characteristics of new energy output, load power and storage power are extracted, and the load power change trend and storage power response state are jointly labeled with the new energy output change direction as the reference axis, and the corresponding relationship of power rise, fall and stability is recorded; The synchronization risk points of multi-source power changes are identified and the trigger sequence is extracted, and the time sequence relationship of new energy output change, storage power response and load power change is determined; The joint labeling results of each time window are integrated to generate a superimposed risk list corresponding to the time series disturbance band in time sequence, which is used to represent the coupling relationship between the source side, load side and energy storage side disturbances.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the method further comprises: In generating the superimposed risk list, the risk events in each time window are arranged in time sequence, and the new energy output change direction, energy storage power response direction, load power change trend and trigger interval are recorded. Through the continuous arrangement of risk events, a time sequence reflecting the coupling characteristics of power disturbance is formed.

5. The method of claim 3, wherein the method further comprises: The rhythm reference frame generation step is as follows: From the superimposed risk list, the risk node information of new energy output change, load power change and energy storage power change is extracted, and the risk nodes are divided into three types of new energy dominant type, load dominant type and energy storage dominant type according to the power change characteristics; According to the power change direction, power change amplitude and time interval of adjacent risk nodes, the energy transfer path between risk nodes is identified, and an energy transfer chain with causal logic is formed; According to the principle of first slow release and then force, the risk nodes in the energy transfer chain are rearranged in time to form an inverse phase sequence scheduling queue with slow release in the front, transition in the middle and force in the back; Based on the inverse phase sequence scheduling queue, a rhythm reference frame is established to determine the intervention sequence of energy storage discharge, load regulation and new energy output recovery. 6.The method of claim 5, wherein, The formation process of the overshoot absorption band is as follows: According to the time law of power change in the rhythm reference frame, the time range and power boundary of the energy buffer interval are determined, the power rising segment is defined as the energy compression interval, and the power falling segment is defined as the energy release interval, which are matched with the slow release stage and force stage of the rhythm reference frame in time; In the energy buffer interval, a bidirectional circulation path of energy compression and energy release is constructed to form a closed-loop transfer relationship between new energy output, energy storage device and load unit for energy absorption and release; By connecting the energy buffer intervals of each rhythm cycle in sequence, an overshoot absorption band is formed, which is composed of energy compression intervals and energy release intervals alternately, so that power fluctuations are orderly absorbed and released in the energy buffer structure.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein the method further comprises: The establishment process of the zero bias entrance is as follows: In the energy flow structure of the overshoot absorption band, a low-carbon priority regulation entrance is established, taking the junction point of the energy compression area and the energy release area as the reference, to make the energy regulation in the initial stage of power deviation dominated by low-carbon resources; The leading intervention order of energy storage unit and load response unit in the energy import path is determined, so that the energy storage unit performs micro charging and discharging regulation preferentially, and the load response unit enters the fine power response stage after the energy storage regulation is completed; Through the micro energy response of the energy storage unit and the load response unit in the initial stage of power deviation, a zero bias entrance is established to balance the transition of energy absorption and release in the time dimension. 8.The method of claim 7, wherein, The energy storage unit in the low-carbon priority regulation entrance absorbs energy at a low rate when the new energy output rises, and releases energy at a low rate when the new energy output falls. The load response unit adjusts the power consumption according to the energy change direction of the energy storage unit, so that the energy absorption and release processes are continuous in time, forming a balanced regulation interval in the initial stage of power deviation. 9.The method of claim 7, wherein, Based on the zero-biased inlet, the phase traction control is implemented, the net load change trend is dynamically adjusted, the micro energy release of the energy storage unit is controlled, and the fine step power adjustment of the load unit is driven as follows: Taking the zero-biased inlet as the energy balance starting point, the continuous time series data of new energy output, load power and energy storage power are identified, the net load change trend is determined, and the corresponding phase traction reference direction is established; In the time frame of the rhythm reference frame, the phase traction control interval is set, and the trend capture area, the synchronous traction area and the delay compensation area are divided, so that the energy storage and the load are synchronized with the net load change in the time dimension; According to the net load change trend, the energy storage unit releases or absorbs micro energy, and realizes the immediate balance in the initial stage of power fluctuation; Guide the load unit to execute fine step power adjustment according to the phase traction reference direction, and compensate for the residual offset after energy storage energy adjustment; Through the continuous collaborative adjustment of the energy storage unit and the load unit, the source-load-storage collaborative stability interval is formed, so that the new energy output uncertainty modeling process continuously deviates from the power overshoot shock interval in dynamic operation.

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