Operation planning device and operation planning program

Abstract

To provide a technique that is able to appropriately determine a planned value for an amount of transacted power.SOLUTION: An operation planning device according to an aspect of the present disclosure includes: a first calculation unit 14 that performs a first calculation process of calculating an amount of differential power by using an estimated value of an amount of generated power, an estimated value of an amount of consumed power, and a set value of an amount of transacted power; a second calculation unit 15 that performs a second calculation process of calculating an amount of supplementary power; a third calculation unit 16 that performs a third calculation process of calculating an amount of imbalance by using the amount of differential power and the amount of supplementary power; a determination unit 17 that performs a determination process of determining whether the amount of imbalance is acceptable or not, by using an average value of the amount of imbalance and a predetermined threshold; and a decision unit 18 that determines and outputs a planned value for the amount of transacted power. When a result of the determination process is acceptable, the decision unit 18 determines the set value as a planned value, when the result of the determination process is unacceptable, the decision unit updates the set value by using the average value of the amount of imbalance. The first calculation process, the second calculation process, the third calculation process, and the determination process are repeated.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to an operation plan creation device and an operation plan creation program. [Background technology]

[0002] A smart grid connected to an external power system is known. An electric utility that operates the smart grid formulates and submits a planned value for power supply and demand in advance. The electric utility adjusts the actual value for power supply and demand according to the planned value. Here, there may be cases where the planned value and the actual value do not match in each time period. The difference between the planned value and the actual value is called an imbalance.

[0003] Patent Document 1 discloses a technology for suppressing the imbalance. The technology described in Patent Document 1 calculates an applied power generation amount having a buffer based on a predicted power generation amount and a predicted storage amount. When the actual power generation amount deviates from the predicted power generation amount, the technology described in Patent Document 1 controls the charging and discharging of a storage device for the buffer amount to maintain the applied power generation amount. The technology described in Patent Document 1 does not correspond to the scale of a smart grid, and the equipment utilization efficiency of the buffer amount may decrease. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] JP 2018-174623 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] In a smart grid connected to an external power system, it is necessary to strike a balance between suppressing imbalances and causing them, depending on prerequisites and requirements imposed on the system. This compromise is achieved by appropriately planning the amount of energy traded between the smart grid and the electricity market. Therefore, a method for appropriately setting the planned value of the amount of energy traded is desired.

[0006] An object of the present disclosure is to provide a technique capable of appropriately determining a planned value for the amount of energy traded. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] An operation plan creation device according to one aspect of the present disclosure includes: a first calculation unit that performs a first calculation process to calculate a difference in power indicating a power shortage or surplus in the smart grid using a predicted value of a power generation amount in the smart grid in a planning period, which is a predetermined period in the future, a predicted value of a power consumption amount in the smart grid in the planning period, and a set value of a traded power amount to be traded between the smart grid and a power market in the planning period; a second calculation unit that performs a second calculation process to calculate an amount of compensation power that can be compensated for by an energy storage in the smart grid in the planning period; a third calculation unit that performs a third calculation process to calculate an amount of imbalance in the planning period using the difference in power and the compensation amount; a determination unit that performs a determination process to determine acceptability using either a first average value obtained by dividing the amount of imbalance by the planning period or a second average value obtained by dividing the amount of imbalance by a part of the planning period and a predetermined threshold; and a determination unit that determines and outputs a planned value of the amount of traded power based on a result of the determination process. If the result of the judgment process is acceptable, the determination unit determines the setting value as the planned value, and if the result of the judgment process is unacceptable, the determination unit updates the setting value using either the first average value or the second average value used in the judgment process, and repeats the first calculation process, the second calculation process, the third calculation process, and the judgment process.

[0008] An operation plan creation program according to an aspect of the present disclosure includes the steps of: performing a first calculation process for calculating a difference in power indicating a power shortage or surplus in the smart grid using a predicted value of a power generation amount in the smart grid in a planning period, which is a predetermined period in the future, a predicted value of a power consumption amount in the smart grid in the planning period, and a set value of a trading power amount to be traded between the smart grid and a power market in the planning period; performing a second calculation process for calculating a compensation power amount that can be compensated for by an energy storage in the smart grid in the planning period; and calculating an imbalance amount in the planning period using the difference in power and the compensation power amount. the step of performing a third calculation process to calculate an imbalance amount of the energy transaction volume; the step of performing a judgment process to determine whether the imbalance amount is acceptable or not using either a first average value obtained by dividing the imbalance amount by the planning period or a second average value obtained by dividing the imbalance amount by a part of the planning period, and a predetermined threshold value; and the step of planning and outputting the planned values, including: determining the set value as the planned value of the amount of energy transaction volume if the result of the judgment process is acceptable; and updating the set value using either the first average value or the second average value used in the judgment process if the result of the judgment process is unacceptable, and repeating the first calculation process, the second calculation process, the third calculation process, and the judgment process.

[0009] In the operation plan creating device and the operation plan creating program according to an aspect of the present disclosure, the difference in power is calculated from the predicted value of the power generation amount, the predicted value of the power consumption amount, and the set value of the traded power amount during the planning period. In addition, the compensation power amount during the planning period is calculated. Then, the imbalance amount is calculated from the difference in power and the compensation power amount. If the result of the determination process of the acceptability using the average value of the imbalance amount (the first average value or the second average value) and a predetermined threshold value is acceptable, the set value is determined as the planned value. If the result of the determination process is unacceptable, the set value is updated, the difference in power, the compensation power, and the imbalance amount are calculated again, and the determination process is repeated to determine an acceptable planned value. This makes it possible to appropriately determine the planned value of the traded power amount that suppresses the imbalance while keeping the imbalance within an acceptable range. In other words, it is possible to appropriately determine the planned value of the traded power amount that strikes a balance between suppressing the imbalance and the occurrence of the imbalance.

[0010] The planning period may be divided into segments, which are predetermined time periods. The first calculation process, the second calculation process, and the third calculation process may be performed for each segment. In this case, the supply and demand for each segment is reflected in the planning value. This allows the planning value to be determined more appropriately.

[0011] The determination unit may further determine whether or not the imbalance is acceptable by using the penalty charge calculated from the imbalance amount and the upper and lower limits of the penalty charge. For example, the acceptable standards may be different between the penalty amount and the penalty charge. In this case, a more appropriate planned value can be determined according to the actual operation situation. Effect of the Invention

[0012] According to the present disclosure, it is possible to provide a technique capable of appropriately determining a planned value for the amount of energy traded. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0013] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a smart grid configuration. [Diagram 2]FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of the EMS. [Diagram 3] FIG. 3 is a sequence diagram showing an example of the operation of the EMS. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a graph showing an example of a simulation for each energy. [Diagram 5] FIG. 5 is a graph showing another example of a simulation for each energy. [Figure 6] FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration related to the EMS. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0014] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. In the description of the drawings, the same elements are given the same reference numerals, and duplicated description will be omitted.

[0015] [overview] The operation plan creation device of the present disclosure determines planned values ​​of an operation plan of a smart grid. The operation plan is a plan regarding the supply and demand of electricity in a predetermined future period (hereinafter referred to as the "planned period"). Examples of the planned period include, but are not limited to, one day, one week, or one month. The planned period may be divided into frames, which are predetermined time periods. A frame may be, for example, an interval of 30 minutes or one hour. The planned values ​​include the planned values ​​of a demand plan for purchasing electricity and the planned values ​​of a power generation plan for selling electricity.

[0016] The operation plan creation device of the present disclosure determines a planned value of the amount of electricity traded (purchased or sold) in accordance with a forecast of supply and demand in a planning period. The operation plan creation device plans a predicted value of the amount of electricity generated and a predicted value of the amount of electricity consumed in the planning period. The operation plan creation device sets a set value of the amount of electricity traded in the planning period. The operation plan creation device calculates a difference in the amount of electricity (shortage or surplus) using the predicted value of the amount of electricity generated and the predicted value and the set value of the amount of electricity consumed. The operation plan creation device calculates an imbalance amount based on the difference in the amount of electricity and the free space of the energy storage. The operation plan creation device determines whether or not an average value of the amount of imbalance is acceptable. If the average value of the amount of imbalance is acceptable, the operation plan creation device determines a planned value of the amount of electricity traded in the planning period using the set value. If the average value of the amount of imbalance is unacceptable, the operation plan creation device resets the set value, recalculates the average value of the amount of imbalance, and repeats this until it becomes acceptable.

[0017] During actual operation, electric power companies adjust the supply and demand of electricity based on planned values. During actual operation, imbalances may occur. There are four cases of imbalances, and penalties may be imposed for each. The first case is when the demand plan is insufficient (demand shortage imbalance). The second case is when the demand plan is insufficient (demand surplus imbalance). The third case is when the power generation plan is insufficient (power generation surplus imbalance). The fourth case is when the power generation plan is insufficient (power generation shortage imbalance). The planned values ​​determined by this disclosure are applicable to all of the cases.

[0018] 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a configuration of a smart grid 1. The smart grid 1 is connected to a power system 90. The smart grid 1 can transmit and receive power to and from the power system 90. The smart grid 1 includes a power generation facility 2, an energy storage 3, a load device 4, a power distribution device 5, and an EMS 10 (Energy Management System: power control device). The power generation facility 2, the energy storage 3, and the load device 4 are connected via the power distribution device 5 and a power transmission network 6.

[0019] The power generation facility 2 is a facility that generates power within the smart grid 1. For example, the power generation facility 2 generates power by utilizing renewable energy such as solar or wind power. In one example, the power generation facility 2 is a photovoltaic (PV) facility. The power generation facility 2 outputs the generated power to the power distribution device 5. The power generation facility 2 has a plurality of solar panels 2a and a plurality of PCSs 2b (Power Conditioning Systems). The number of the solar panels 2a and the PCSs 2b is not limited. The PCSs 2b are power conversion devices that convert the power generated by the solar panels 2a. The PCSs 2b convert the DC power from the solar panels 2a into AC power or into a DC voltage of a predetermined voltage.

[0020] The power generation facility 2 is provided with a measurement unit 21. The measurement unit 21 measures the amount of power generated in the power generation facility 2. The method for measuring the amount of power generated is not limited. The measurement unit 21 may measure the power output from the power generation facility 2 to the power distribution device 5.

[0021] The energy storage 3 is a device that stores energy within the smart grid 1. For example, the energy storage 3 is a power storage device having a storage battery, a storage battery PCS, and a monitoring device. The storage battery charges and discharges. The storage battery PCS converts the direct current of the storage battery to alternating current. The monitoring device acquires the remaining energy of the storage battery. The energy storage 3 charges, for example, with power generated by the power generation facility 2 and power supplied from the power system 90. The energy storage 3 outputs (discharges) a certain amount of power to the load device 4.

[0022] The configuration and number of the energy storage 3 are not limited. The energy storage 3 may be, for example, a device that produces and stores or supplies hydrogen, ammonia, or the like. The energy storage 3 may be a flywheel, etc. The energy storage 3 may be a combination of an electricity storage device and a hydrogen conversion and storage device having a hydrogen tank, etc.

[0023] The load device 4 is a device that consumes power within the smart grid 1 to perform a desired operation. Examples of the load device 4 include, but are not limited to, electric lights, power loads, electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, and inverter devices. The load device 4 may be configured to operate in cooperation with a load device or the like provided outside the smart grid 1.

[0024] The power distribution device 5 is a switchboard that adjusts the power distribution of the smart grid 1. The power distribution device 5 is connected to, for example, the power generation facility 2, the energy storage device 3, the load device 4, and the power system 90. The power distribution device 5 adjusts the power distribution to each device according to the control of the EMS 10.

[0025] The EMS 10 is a device that monitors and controls each device in the smart grid 1. For example, the EMS 10 monitors the power generation equipment 2, the energy storage 3, and the load devices 4, and acquires the amount of generated power, the remaining energy, the amount of consumed power, and the like. The EMS 10 also controls the exchange of power between the smart grid 1 and the power system 90. The EMS 10 functions as an operation plan creation device of the present disclosure.

[0026] The power system 90 is a system capable of receiving and sending power based on the results of a power market where power is traded (sold and bought) between multiple power sellers and buyers. The smart grid 1 can purchase power from the power system 90. The smart grid 1 can sell power to the power system 90.

[0027] The smart grid 1 adjusts the supply and demand of electricity in each time period according to a planned value established in advance. For example, the EMS 10 operates so that the amount of power generated by the power generation facility 2 is equal to the amount of power consumed by the load device 4. The EMS 10 may also adjust the supply and demand of electricity using the amount of compensation power compensated for by the energy storage 3 and the amount of power supplied from the power system 90.

[0028] 2 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of an EMS 10 (operation plan creation device). The EMS 10 is communicably connected to a database 20. The EMS 10 includes, as functional elements, a power generation amount planning unit 11, a demand amount planning unit 12, a transaction amount setting unit 13, a first calculation unit 14, a second calculation unit 15, a third calculation unit 16, a determination unit 17, and a decision unit 18.

[0029] The database 20 is a non-transitory storage medium or storage device that stores various information used by the EMS 10. For example, the database 20 may store actual values ​​of the amount of power generated in the past. The database 20 may store actual values ​​of the amount of power consumed in the past. The database 20 may store actual values ​​of the amount of power traded in the past between the smart grid 1 and the electricity market. The database 20 may store penalty unit prices for past imbalances. The information stored in the database 20 is not limited to these. The database 20 may be constructed as a single database or may be a collection of multiple databases. The database 20 may be provided within the EMS 10.

[0030] The power generation amount planning unit 11 plans a predicted value of the amount of power generated in the smart grid 1 during a planning period. The method of planning the predicted value of the amount of power generated is not limited. For example, the power generation amount planning unit 11 plans the predicted value of the amount of power generated during the planning period based on an actual value or a predicted value.

[0031] The demand amount planning unit 12 plans a predicted value of the amount of power consumption in the smart grid 1 during the planning period. The method of planning the predicted value of the amount of power consumption is not limited. For example, the demand amount planning unit 12 plans the predicted value of the amount of power consumption during the planning period based on an actual value or a predicted value.

[0032] The trading volume setting unit 13 sets a set value of the trading volume of energy to be traded between the smart grid 1 and the electricity market during the planning period. The method of setting the set value of the trading volume of energy is not limited. For example, the trading volume setting unit 13 sets a set value of the trading volume of energy during the planning period based on a performance value. When the set value of the trading volume of energy is updated by the decision unit 18 described later, the trading volume setting unit 13 sets the updated set value.

[0033] The first calculation unit 14 performs a first calculation process to calculate a power difference indicating a power shortage or surplus in the smart grid 1, using the predicted value of the power generation amount, the predicted value of the power consumption amount, and a set value. The power difference is the power shortage or surplus in the planning period.

[0034] The second calculation unit 15 performs a second calculation process to calculate the amount of compensation power that can be compensated by the energy storage 3 in the smart grid 1. The second calculation unit 15 calculates the amount of compensation power using, for example, the rated output, conversion efficiency, and operable amount of the energy storage 3. The conversion efficiency of the energy storage 3 is calculated using, for example, the output and ratings of the storage battery PCS and the charge / discharge transformer, and the output and efficiency (kWh / Nm 3Examples of the operable amount of the energy storage 3 include, but are not limited to, upper and lower limits of the SOC (State of Charge) of the storage battery, upper and lower limits of the tank capacity of the hydrogen tank, and upper and lower limits of the tank pressure of the hydrogen tank.

[0035] The third calculation unit 16 performs a third calculation process to calculate the amount of imbalance in the planning period by using the difference power amount and the compensation power amount. The third calculation unit 16 may calculate a penalty fee in the planning period. For example, the third calculation unit 16 may obtain a penalty unit price for a past imbalance from the database 20. The third calculation unit 16 may calculate the penalty fee by multiplying the amount of imbalance in the planning period by the penalty unit price.

[0036] The determination unit 17 performs a determination process to determine whether or not the imbalance amount is acceptable, using the average value of the imbalance amount in the planning period and a predetermined threshold value. The average value may be either a first average value obtained by dividing the imbalance amount by the planning period, or a second average value obtained by dividing the imbalance amount by a part of the planning period. The part of the period may be a period excluding times when the electricity unit price is high, such as mornings and evenings. Examples of the predetermined threshold value include, but are not limited to, upper and lower limits of the imbalance amount, and upper and lower limits of a penalty fee calculated from the imbalance amount. The determination unit 17 may determine whether or not the imbalance amount is acceptable, using the average value of the imbalance amount (the first average value or the second average value) and the upper and lower limits of the imbalance amount. The determination unit 17 may determine whether or not the imbalance amount is acceptable, using the penalty fee calculated from the imbalance amount and the upper and lower limits of the penalty fee.

[0037] The determination unit 18 determines and outputs a planned value of the amount of energy traded between the smart grid 1 and the electricity market based on the result of the determination process. If the result of the determination process is acceptable, the determination unit 18 determines the set value as the planned value. If the result of the determination process is unacceptable, the determination unit 18 updates the set value using either the first average value or the second average value used in the determination process, and repeats the first calculation process, the second calculation process, the third calculation process, and the determination process. The determination unit 18 may transmit the planned value of the amount of energy traded to an external terminal, or may display it on a display device.

[0038] An example of an operation method (operation plan creation method) by the EMS 10 will be described with reference to Fig. 3. Fig. 3 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the EMS 10. Below, the first case of imbalance (demand shortage imbalance) will be described, but the second to fourth cases are also processed in the same manner.

[0039] In step S1, the EMS 10 plans a predicted value of the amount of power generation and a predicted value of the amount of power consumption during the planning period. For example, the power generation amount planning unit 11 plans a predicted value of the amount of power generation during the planning period based on actual values ​​or predicted values. The demand amount planning unit 12 plans a predicted value of the amount of power consumption during the planning period based on actual values ​​or predicted values.

[0040] The power generation amount planning unit 11 may acquire the actual value of the amount of power generated in the past from the database 20. The power generation amount planning unit 11 may plan the predicted value of the amount of power generated in the planning period using the actual value of the amount of power generated in the past. The power generation amount planning unit 11 may create a prediction model by pattern analysis using the actual value of the amount of power generated in the past. The power generation amount planning unit 11 may plan the predicted value of the amount of power generated in the planning period using the prediction model. The power generation amount planning unit 11 may acquire the sunshine conditions in the planning period from a weather forecast service or the like via the Internet or the like. The power generation amount planning unit 11 may plan the predicted value of the amount of power generated in the planning period using the sunshine conditions, the PV output of the power generation facility 2, and a correction coefficient. Examples of the correction coefficient include, but are not limited to, the power generation efficiency (conversion efficiency) of the solar panel 2a, a coefficient set by law or technical standard, and air temperature. The PV output and the correction coefficient of the power generation facility 2 may be stored in advance in the database 20 or the like. The power generation amount planning unit 11 may receive an input of a predicted value of the power generation amount for the planning period from a user of the EMS 10.

[0041] The demand amount planning unit 12 may acquire past actual values ​​of the power consumption from the database 20. The demand amount planning unit 12 may plan a predicted value of the power consumption in the planning period using the past actual values ​​of the power consumption. The demand amount planning unit 12 may create a prediction model by pattern analysis using the past actual values ​​of the power consumption. The demand amount planning unit 12 may plan a predicted value of the power consumption in the planning period using the prediction model. The demand amount planning unit 12 may plan a predicted value of the power consumption in the planning period using the load of the load device 4 and a general calculation formula. The demand amount planning unit 12 may plan a predicted value of the power consumption in the planning period using external information such as a weather forecast and event schedules in the planning period. The demand amount planning unit 12 may accept an input of a predicted value of the power consumption in the planning period from a user of the EMS 10.

[0042] In step S2, the EMS 10 sets a set value of the amount of energy traded in the planning period. For example, the trading amount setting unit 13 sets a set value of the amount of energy traded in the planning period based on a performance value.

[0043] The trading volume setting unit 13 may obtain past actual values ​​of the amount of energy traded from the database 20. The trading volume setting unit 13 may set a set value of the amount of energy traded for the planning period using the past actual values ​​of the amount of energy traded. The trading volume setting unit 13 may plan the amount of energy traded using external information such as a weather forecast and event schedules for the planning period. The trading volume setting unit 13 may accept an input of a set value from a user of the EMS 10. The set value may be a constant value for the planning period, or may vary for each partial period or for each frame.

[0044] In step S3, the EMS 10 calculates the power difference. For example, the first calculation unit 14 performs a first calculation process using the predicted value of the generated power amount, the predicted value of the consumed power amount, and a set value to calculate the power difference indicating the power shortage or surplus in the smart grid 1. The power difference can be expressed by, for example, the following formula (1). Difference in power consumption = predicted value of power consumption - set value - predicted value of generated power (1)

[0045] When the power difference calculated by formula (1) is positive, it is a power generation shortage. When the power difference calculated by formula (1) is negative, it is a power generation surplus. Here, the power difference is positive, and it will be described as a power generation shortage.

[0046] In step S4, the EMS 10 calculates the amount of compensation power. For example, the second calculation unit 15 performs a second calculation process to calculate the amount of compensation power that can be compensated for by the energy storage 3 in the smart grid 1. Here, the explanation is given assuming that the energy storage 3 is composed of a power storage device and a hydrogen conversion storage device. Compensation is performed, for example, in the order of the power storage device and the hydrogen conversion storage device.

[0047] The second calculation unit 15 calculates a first compensation amount of power that can be compensated by the power storage device, using the remaining amount or free capacity of the storage battery. The second calculation unit 15 may use the remaining amount or free capacity of the storage battery to determine whether or not storage in the storage battery is possible.

[0048] The second calculation unit 15 calculates the second compensation amount of power that can be compensated for by the hydrogen conversion and storage device, using the remaining amount or free capacity of the hydrogen tank. The second calculation unit 15 may use the remaining amount or free capacity of the hydrogen tank to determine whether or not hydrogen can be stored in the hydrogen tank.

[0049] In step S5, the EMS 10 calculates the amount of imbalance. For example, the third calculation unit 16 performs a third calculation process to calculate the amount of imbalance in the planning period using the difference power amount and the compensation power amount. For example, the third calculation unit 16 calculates the amount of imbalance by determining whether the compensation power amount of the energy storage 3 can cover the difference power amount. The compensation power amount may include a first compensation power amount and a second compensation power amount.

[0050] The third calculation unit 16 judges whether the power storage device can cover the power generation shortage. For example, when the first compensation power amount is equal to or greater than the power generation shortage, the power storage device covers the power generation shortage. The EMS 10 can suppress the imbalance by controlling the power storage device so that the discharge amount of the storage battery is equal to the power generation shortage. In this case, the third calculation unit 16 calculates the imbalance amount as 0.

[0051] When the first compensation amount of power is less than the power generation shortage, the energy storage device cannot cover the power generation shortage. In this case, even if the energy storage device discharges the battery to the lower limit of SOC, a difference occurs between the first compensation amount of power and the power generation shortage. This difference is the first non-compensable amount of power that cannot be compensated for by the energy storage device. The first non-compensable amount of power can be expressed, for example, by the following formula (2). First non-compensable power amount=Predicted power consumption amount−Predicted power generation amount−Set value+Remaining amount or free capacity of storage battery (2)

[0052] The third calculation unit 16 determines whether the hydrogen conversion and storage device can cover the first non-compensable amount of power. For example, if the second non-compensable amount of power is greater than or equal to the first non-compensable amount of power, the hydrogen conversion and storage device covers the first non-compensable amount of power. The EMS 10 can suppress the imbalance by controlling the hydrogen conversion and storage device so that the amount of power generated by consuming hydrogen equals the first non-compensable amount of power. In this case, the third calculation unit 16 calculates the imbalance amount as 0.

[0053] If the second compensable amount of electric power is less than the first uncompensable amount of electric power, the hydrogen conversion and storage device cannot cover the first uncompensable amount of electric power. In this case, even if the hydrogen conversion and storage device generates electric power by consuming hydrogen up to the lower limit of the tank capacity, a difference will occur between the second compensable amount of electric power and the first uncompensable amount of electric power. This difference is the second uncompensable amount of electric power that cannot be compensated for by the hydrogen conversion and storage device. The second uncompensable amount of electric power can be expressed, for example, by the following formula (3). Second non-compensable power amount = predicted value of power consumption amount - predicted value of generated power amount - set value + remaining amount or free capacity of storage battery + remaining amount or free capacity of hydrogen tank (3)

[0054] The second uncompensable amount of power can also be said to be an amount of power that cannot be compensated for by the energy storage 3. The third calculation unit 16 calculates the second uncompensable amount of power as an imbalance amount. When the second uncompensable amount of power calculated by formula (3) is positive, it is a shortage imbalance. When the second uncompensable amount of power calculated by formula (3) is negative, it is a surplus imbalance.

[0055] The third calculation unit 16 may calculate the penalty fee for the planning period. For example, the third calculation unit 16 may obtain a penalty unit price for a past imbalance from the database 20. The penalty unit price may be a fixed price. The third calculation unit 16 may calculate the penalty fee by multiplying the amount of imbalance for the planning period by the penalty unit price.

[0056] The processes of steps S1 to S5 may be performed for each of the n (n > 0) time slots within the planning period. That is, the first calculation process, the second calculation process, and the third calculation process may be performed for each time slot. In one example, when the planning period is one day and the time slot is in 30-minute units, there are 48 time slots in the planning period. In this case, the processes of steps S1 to S5 may be performed for every 48 time slots.

[0057] The third calculation unit 16 may accumulate the imbalance amounts within the planning period, divide the accumulated imbalance amount by the planning period, and calculate a first average value. For example, the third calculation unit 16 may accumulate the imbalance amounts for every n time slots, divide the accumulated imbalance amount by n, the number of time slots, and calculate a first average value. The third calculation unit 16 may accumulate the imbalance amounts within the planning period, divide the accumulated imbalance amount by a partial period within the planning period, and calculate a second average value. For example, the third calculation unit 16 may accumulate the imbalance amounts for every n time slots, divide the accumulated imbalance amount by m (m < n) time slots excluding the time periods with high electricity unit prices such as morning and evening, and calculate a second average value.

[0058] The third calculation unit 16 may calculate the total penalty charges for every n time slots. The penalty unit price may be different for every n time slots. The third calculation unit 16 may multiply the imbalance amount for every n time slots by the corresponding penalty unit price for each time slot, calculate the penalty charges for every n time slots, and sum them up. The third calculation unit 16 may calculate the total penalty charges for every m time slots, which are a partial period. The penalty unit price may be different for every m time slots. The third calculation unit 16 may multiply the imbalance amount for every m time slots by the corresponding penalty unit price for each time slot, calculate the penalty charges for every m time slots, and sum them up.

[0059] In step S6, the EMS 10 determines whether the imbalance amount is acceptable. For example, the determination unit 17 performs a determination process for determining acceptability using either the first average value or the second average value and a predetermined threshold value.

[0060] The determination unit 17 may determine whether or not the amount of imbalance is acceptable by using either the first average value or the second average value, and the upper and lower limits of the amount of imbalance. The determination unit 17 may determine whether or not the amount of imbalance is acceptable by using a penalty fee calculated from the amount of imbalance, and the upper and lower limits of the penalty fee. The determination unit 17 may perform a determination process by using at least one of the amount of imbalance and the penalty fee.

[0061] If the result of the determination process is acceptable (YES in step S7), the process proceeds to step S8. If the result of the determination process is unacceptable (NO in step S8), the process proceeds to step S9.

[0062] In step S8, the EMS 10 determines the planned value of the amount of energy traded. For example, if the result of the judgment process is acceptable, the determination unit 18 determines the set value of the amount of energy traded as the planned value of the amount of energy traded. The determination unit 18 may transmit the planned value of the amount of energy traded to an external terminal or display it on a display device.

[0063] In step S9, the EMS 10 updates the set value of the amount of energy traded. For example, when the result of the determination process is unacceptable, the determination unit 18 updates the set value using either the first average value or the second average value used in the determination process. For example, the determination unit 18 updates the already set value with a new set value calculated by adding the average value of the imbalance amount (the first average value or the second average value) to the set value.

[0064] After the process of step S9, the process returns to step S2. The transaction amount setting unit 13 sets the updated set value. In this manner, the determination unit 18 repeats the first calculation process, the second calculation process, the third calculation process, and the determination process.

[0065] The effect of determining the planned value of the amount of energy traded will be described with reference to Fig. 4 and Fig. 5. Fig. 4 is a graph showing an example of a simulation for each energy. Fig. 4 shows a simulation of a comparative example before the planned value is determined by the EMS 10. In Fig. 4, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents the amount related to each energy.

[0066] FIG. 4 shows a part of the planning period (from 0:00 on January 8 to 23:00 on January 11). In the part of the period, there are times t1 and t2 at which values ​​related to the energy storage 3, such as the operating SOC, the hydrogen operation remaining amount, and the storage battery charge amount, are at the lower limit (for example, 0). In one example, time t1 is from 22:00 on January 8 to 12:00 on January 9. Time t2 is from 19:00 on January 9 to 7:00 on January 10. At times t1 and t2, the energy storage 3 cannot compensate for power. Here, at times t1 and t2, the amount of power sold (amount of power sold) is a negative value. The negative value of the amount of power sold indicates the amount of power purchased. For example, the amount of power imbalance is calculated by accumulating the negative values ​​of the amount of power sold at times t1 and t2.

[0067] Fig. 5 is a graph showing another example of a simulation for each energy. In Fig. 5, the horizontal axis is time and the vertical axis is the amount for each energy. Fig. 5 shows a simulation of the embodiment after the planned value is determined by the EMS 10. In Fig. 5, the horizontal axis is time and the vertical axis is the amount for each energy.

[0068] In the example shown in FIG. 5, the amount of power sold is constant at −5 kW. FIG. 5 shows that a planned value (5 kW) of a constant amount of power to be purchased in the planning period is determined. The electric utility purchases power according to the planned value. This allows the energy storage 3 (e.g., a storage battery) to be charged using surplus power at times other than times t1 and t2. In FIG. 5, there is no change in the amount of power sold at times t1 and t2. In other words, the imbalance is suppressed.

[0069] Comparing Fig. 5 with Fig. 4, the values ​​of the demand (power consumption) and power generation (power generation) are similar. In contrast, comparing Fig. 5 with Fig. 4, the values ​​related to the energy storage 3, such as the operating SOC, the hydrogen operation remaining amount, and the battery charge amount, are different. In Fig. 4, an imbalance occurs because the remaining amount of the energy storage 3 is insufficient. In Fig. 5, a planned value for the amount of purchased power that can ensure the remaining amount of the energy storage 3 is determined, so the imbalance is suppressed.

[0070] [Hardware configuration] Fig. 6 is a diagram showing an example of a hardware configuration related to the EMS 10. Fig. 6 shows a computer 100 functioning as the EMS 10. The computer 100 has a processor 101, a main memory unit 102, an auxiliary memory unit 103, a communication control unit 104, an input device 105, and an output device 106. The EMS 10 is made up of one or more computers 100 constituted by this hardware and software such as programs.

[0071] When the EMS 10 is configured by a plurality of computers 100, these computers 100 may be connected locally or via a communication network such as the Internet or an intranet.

[0072] The processor 101 is a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that executes an operating system, application programs, etc. The main memory 102 is composed of a ROM (Read Only Memory) and a RAM (Random Access Memory). The auxiliary memory 103 is a storage medium composed of a hard disk, a flash memory, etc. The auxiliary memory 103 generally stores a larger amount of data than the main memory 102. The communication control unit 104 is composed of a network card or a wireless communication module. At least a part of the communication function with other devices in the EMS 10 may be realized by the communication control unit 104. The input device 105 is composed of a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, a microphone for voice input, etc. The output device 106 is composed of a display, a printer, etc.

[0073] The auxiliary storage unit 103 stores in advance a program 110 (operation plan creation program) and data necessary for processing. The program 110 causes the computer 100 to execute each functional element of the EMS 10. The program 110 causes, for example, processing related to the above-mentioned operation plan creation method to be executed in the computer 100. For example, the program 110 is read by the processor 101 or the main storage unit 102, and causes at least one of the processor 101, the main storage unit 102, the auxiliary storage unit 103, the communication control unit 104, the input device 105, and the output device 106 to operate. For example, the program 110 reads and writes data in the main storage unit 102 and the auxiliary storage unit 103.

[0074] The program 110 may be provided in a form recorded on a tangible storage medium such as a CD-ROM, a DVD-ROM, a semiconductor memory, etc. The program 110 may be provided as a data signal via a communication network.

[0075] As described above, the operation plan creation device (EMS 10) according to one aspect of the present disclosure includes: a first calculation unit 14 that performs a first calculation process to calculate a difference in power indicating a power shortage or surplus in the smart grid 1, using a predicted value of the amount of power generated in the smart grid 1 in a planning period, which is a predetermined period in the future, a predicted value of the amount of power consumed in the smart grid 1 in the planning period, and a set value of the amount of power traded between the smart grid 1 and the electricity market in the planning period; a second calculation unit 15 that performs a second calculation process to calculate an amount of compensation power that can be compensated for by the energy storage 3 in the smart grid 1 in the planning period; a third calculation unit 16 that performs a third calculation process to calculate an amount of imbalance in the planning period, using the difference in power and the amount of compensation power; a determination unit 17 that performs a determination process to determine acceptability, using either a first average value obtained by dividing the amount of imbalance by the planning period or a second average value obtained by dividing the amount of imbalance by a part of the planning period, and a predetermined threshold; and a determination unit 18 that determines and outputs a planned value of the amount of power traded based on a result of the determination process. If the result of the judgment process is acceptable, the determination unit 18 determines the setting value as the planned value, and if the result of the judgment process is unacceptable, the determination unit 18 updates the setting value using either the first average value or the second average value used in the judgment process, and repeats the first calculation process, the second calculation process, the third calculation process, and the judgment process.

[0076] An operation plan creation program according to an aspect of the present disclosure includes a step of performing a first calculation process of calculating a difference in power indicating a power shortage or surplus in the smart grid 1 using a predicted value of a power generation amount in the smart grid 1 in a planning period, which is a predetermined future period, a predicted value of a power consumption amount in the smart grid 1 in the planning period, and a set value of a trading power amount to be traded between the smart grid 1 and a power market in the planning period; a second calculation process of calculating a compensation power amount that can be compensated for by an energy storage 3 in the smart grid 1 in the planning period; and a step of calculating an inbalance amount in the planning period using the difference in power and the compensation power amount. the step of performing a third calculation process to calculate an imbalance amount; the step of performing a determination process to determine acceptability using either a first average value obtained by dividing the imbalance amount by the planning period or a second average value obtained by dividing the imbalance amount by a part of the planning period, and a predetermined threshold; and the step of planning and outputting the planned value, including: determining the set value as the planned value of the amount of energy traded if the result of the determination process is acceptable; and updating the set value using either the first average value or the second average value used in the determination process if the result of the determination process is unacceptable, and repeating the first calculation process, the second calculation process, the third calculation process, and the determination process.

[0077] In the operation plan creating device and the operation plan creating program according to an aspect of the present disclosure, the power difference is calculated from the predicted value of the power generation amount, the predicted value of the power consumption amount, and the set value of the power transaction amount during the planning period. The compensation power amount during the planning period is calculated. The imbalance amount is calculated from the power difference and the compensation power amount. If the result of the determination process of the allowability using the average value (first average value or second average value) of the imbalance amount during the planning period and a predetermined threshold value is allowable, the set value is determined as the planned value. If the result of the determination process is not allowable, the set value is updated, the power difference, the compensation power amount, and the imbalance amount are calculated again, and the determination process is repeated to determine an allowable planned value. This makes it possible to appropriately determine the planned value of the power transaction amount that suppresses the imbalance while keeping the imbalance within an allowable range. In other words, it is possible to appropriately determine the planned value of the power transaction amount that strikes a balance between suppressing the imbalance and the occurrence of the imbalance.

[0078] The planned value determined by the present disclosure can suppress imbalance, and therefore, for example, can suppress imbalance charges associated with the occurrence of imbalance. In addition, the planned value can be automatically determined without depending on the skill and experience of the operator, and the workload related to determining the planned value can be suppressed. Furthermore, since the imbalance is within an allowable range, the expansion of the energy storage 3, etc. can be suppressed, and the utilization efficiency of the energy storage 3, etc. can be improved.

[0079] The planning period is divided into frames, which are predetermined time periods. The first calculation process, the second calculation process, and the third calculation process are performed for each frame. In this case, the supply and demand for each frame is reflected in the planning value. This makes it possible to more appropriately determine the planning value.

[0080] The judgment unit 17 further judges whether the penalty charge calculated from the imbalance amount and the upper and lower limits of the penalty charge are acceptable. For example, the acceptable standards for the penalty amount and the penalty charge may differ. In this case, a more appropriate planned value can be determined according to the actual operation situation.

[0081] [Variations] The present disclosure is not necessarily limited to the above-described embodiments, and various modifications are possible without departing from the spirit and scope of the present disclosure.

[0082] The second calculation unit 15 may set a threshold value for the free capacity of the energy storage 3. A safety factor may be set for this threshold value. When the energy storage 3 is a storage battery, the free capacity may be the remaining amount. The second calculation unit 15 may calculate the amount of compensation power by further using the efficiency of the energy storage 3. The second calculation unit 15 may set a priority order for the energy storage 3. For example, when the energy storage 3 is composed of a power storage device and a hydrogen conversion storage device, the second calculation unit 15 may set a device that is to be given priority for charging and discharging. The energy storage 3 may perform a scheduled operation.

[0083] The third calculation unit 16 may acquire the unit price in the electricity market via the Internet or the like. The third calculation unit 16 may calculate the penalty fee by multiplying the imbalance amount in the planning period by the unit price in the electricity market. The unit price in the electricity market may differ depending on the time of day. For example, the unit price may be low in the morning or afternoon and high in the evening or night. In this case, the calculated penalty fee may differ depending on the time of day. This makes it possible to determine a planned value that suppresses the amount of energy traded during the time period when the penalty fee is high.

[0084] The EMS 10 may vary the amount of energy traded depending on the time of day. For example, in the third case of imbalance, the EMS 10 may vary the amount of energy sold depending on the time of day. The EMS 10 may perform control to suppress the sale of energy in the morning or afternoon when the unit price in the electricity market is low, and prioritize storage in the energy storage 3. The EMS 10 may perform control to prioritize the sale of energy and suppress storage in the energy storage 3 in the evening or night when the unit price in the electricity market is high. In this case, the possibility of an imbalance occurring in the morning or afternoon increases, but profitability may be improved by selling energy in the evening or night.

[0085] The determination unit 17 may use the contracted power as a threshold value. An electric utility may formulate a demand plan to procure power by making a contract with a power company. Conventionally, it has been common to set the contracted power high by adding a buffer amount to the peak amount of power purchased from the power company. In contrast, according to the determination of the planned value disclosed herein, the facility utilization rate of the energy storage 3 and the like is improved, so that the peak is suppressed. The suppression of the peak increases the possibility of setting the contracted power low. By setting the contracted power low, the basic fee can be reduced.

[0086] The penalty charges may differ between the first to fourth imbalance cases. The power generation amount planning unit 11 may calculate a predicted value for the amount of power generation that is lower (for example, about 10% lower). The demand amount planning unit 12 may calculate a predicted value for the amount of power consumption that is higher (for example, about 10% higher). In this case, even if an imbalance occurs, it is possible to increase the possibility of an excess imbalance occurring. Alternatively, the power generation amount planning unit 11 may calculate a predicted value for the amount of power generation that is higher. The demand amount planning unit 12 may calculate a predicted value for the amount of power consumption that is lower. In this case, even if an imbalance occurs, it is possible to suppress an excess imbalance.

[0087] The EMS 10 controls the amount of energy traded in accordance with the planned value. For example, the EMS 10 may control the actual amount of energy traded so as to match the planned value of the amount of energy traded by controlling the charging and discharging of the energy storage 3. The EMS 10 may perform feedback control of the amount of energy traded so as to match the planned value during the planning period. The EMS 10 may plan the amount of energy to be charged and discharged in the energy storage 3 using a predicted value of the amount of energy generated, a predicted value of the amount of energy consumed, and a planned value of the amount of energy to be traded. The EMS 10 may perform a schedule operation of the energy storage 3 in accordance with the plan of the amount of energy to be charged and discharged.

[0088] The balance between the amount of generated power and the amount of consumed power may vary depending on factors such as the season. In one example, the amount of generated power is insufficient in January and February, and the amount of generated power becomes surplus from March onwards. The operation planning device may determine the planning period by dividing such a period. In this case, the imbalance amount of the shortage or surplus can be calculated more appropriately.

[0089] The frequency of determining the planned value may be determined based on the operation mode such as the equipment configuration and the monitoring method, and the fluctuation factors. In the case of an hour-ahead market, the planned value may be determined online. In the case of a day-ahead market, the planned value may be determined the day before. The planned value may be determined any number of days in advance.

[0090] In the above embodiment, the determination unit 18 updates the set value by using the average value of the imbalance amount, but this is not limited to the above. For example, the determination unit 18 may further update the set value by using an incentive in the afore-hours market.

[0091] [Note] The present invention relates to a technology for effectively utilizing surplus electricity from renewable energy sources. Therefore, the present invention contributes to the following goals of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) led by the United Nations: Goal 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Goal 9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation [Explanation of symbols]

[0092] 1. Smart Grid 2. Power generation facilities 2a Solar Panel 2b PCS 21 Measurement section 3. Energy Storage 4 Load device 5 Power distribution equipment 6. Power grid 10. EMS 20 Database 90 Power system 100 Computers 101 Processor 102 Main memory 103 Auxiliary storage 104 Communication control section 105 Input Device 106 Output Device 110 Programs

Claims

1. a first calculation unit that performs a first calculation process to calculate a difference in power indicating a power shortage or surplus in the smart grid, using a predicted value of a power generation amount in the smart grid for a planning period that is a predetermined period in the future, a predicted value of a power consumption amount in the smart grid for the planning period, and a set value of a trading amount of power to be traded between the smart grid and a power market for the planning period; a second calculation unit that performs a second calculation process to calculate an amount of compensation power that can be compensated for by an energy storage in the smart grid during the planning period; a third calculation unit that performs a third calculation process to calculate an imbalance amount in the planning period by using the difference power amount and the compensation power amount; a determination unit that performs a determination process to determine acceptability using either a first average value obtained by dividing the imbalance amount by the planning period or a second average value obtained by dividing the imbalance amount by a part of the planning period, and a predetermined threshold value; a determination unit that determines and outputs a planned value of the amount of power traded based on a result of the determination process, The determination unit is If the result of the determination process is acceptable, the set value is determined as the planned value; if the result of the determination process is unacceptable, updating the set value using either the first average value or the second average value used in the determination process, and repeating the first calculation process, the second calculation process, the third calculation process, and the determination process. Operation plan creation device.

2. The planning period is divided into frames, which are predetermined time periods, the first calculation process, the second calculation process, and the third calculation process are performed for each frame. The operation plan creating device according to claim 1 .

3. The operation plan creation device according to claim 1 , wherein the determination unit further determines whether or not the imbalance is acceptable by using a penalty fee calculated from the imbalance amount and an upper and lower limit of the penalty fee.

4. performing a first calculation process for calculating a difference in power indicating a power shortage or surplus in the smart grid, using a predicted value of a power generation amount in the smart grid for a planning period that is a predetermined period in the future, a predicted value of a power consumption amount in the smart grid for the planning period, and a set value of a trading amount of power to be traded between the smart grid and a power market for the planning period; performing a second calculation process for calculating an amount of compensation power that can be compensated for by an energy storage in the smart grid during the planning period; performing a third calculation process for calculating an imbalance amount in the planning period by using the difference power amount and the compensation power amount; performing a determination process for determining acceptability using either a first average value obtained by dividing the imbalance amount by the planning period or a second average value obtained by dividing the imbalance amount by a part of the planning period, and a predetermined threshold value; a step of planning and outputting the planned value, the planning step including: determining the set value as a planned value of the amount of energy traded when the result of the determination process is acceptable; and updating the set value using either the first average value or the second average value used in the determination process when the result of the determination process is unacceptable, and repeating the first calculation process, the second calculation process, the third calculation process, and the determination process; An operation plan creation program that causes a computer to execute the above.

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