Water heater control device, hot water supply system, water heater control method and program

Abstract

To provide a water heater control device capable of suppressing occurrence of shortage of hot water, a water heater control system, a water heater control method and a program.SOLUTION: A cloud server 1 that functions as a water heater control device includes: a water heater information acquisition section 111 that acquires water heater information for calculating a plurality of feature amounts indicating features of a use status of boiled-up hot water and electric power consumption in each water heater 3; a daytime boiling-up possibility determination section 118 that determines whether or not it is possible to change a future boiling-up time zone from night to daytime in each water heater 3 on the basis of additional boiling-up occurrence probability estimated from the plurality of feature amounts calculated on the basis of past water heater information; and a schedule generation section 122 that generates schedule information indicating an operation schedule of each water heater 3 on the basis of the determined change possibility of the boiling-up time zone of each water heater 3.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a water heater control device, a water heater system, a water heater control method, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] A management computer has been proposed that is connected via a network to each of the electric water heaters installed at multiple customers' homes and remotely controls the water heaters via the network based on the water heaters' usage history (see, for example, Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2002-31405 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] In homes equipped with solar-powered power generation equipment, there is a demand for effective use of generated electricity by using surplus electricity generated by solar power during the day to heat water. Storage-type hot water heaters generally heat water during the night when electricity rates are relatively low, storing enough hot water in a tank for use during the daytime the following day. When the hot water stored in the tank is about to run out during the daytime the following day, they automatically heat additional water to prevent users from running out of hot water during the daytime. Therefore, if users use more hot water than usual during the daytime, and the water heater is using the surplus electricity during the daytime, there is a risk of running out of hot water.

[0005] The present disclosure has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned reasons, and aims to provide a water heater control device, a water heater system, a water heater control method, and a program that can prevent hot water shortages from occurring. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] In order to achieve the above object, the water heater control device according to the present disclosure includes: a water heater information acquisition unit that acquires water heater information for calculating at least one feature amount that indicates a feature of the usage status of boiled water for each of the plurality of water heaters; a boiling time period changeability determination unit that determines whether or not the boiling time period can be changed from the first time point to a third time point that is the reference time after the first time point, based on the probability of additional boiling occurring estimated from the at least one feature calculated based on the water heater information from a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point and the first time point, for each of the plurality of water heaters; and a schedule generation unit that generates schedule information indicating an operation schedule for each of the plurality of water heaters based on whether or not the boiling time period determined for each of the plurality of water heaters can be changed. [Effects of the Invention]

[0007] According to the present disclosure, a water heating time slot changeability determination unit determines, for each of a plurality of water heaters, whether the water heating time slot between the first and third time points is changeable, based on the probability of additional water heating occurring estimated from at least one feature calculated based on water heater information from the second time point to the first time point. Then, a schedule generation unit generates schedule information indicating the operation schedule of each of the plurality of water heaters, based on the changeability of the water heating time slot determined for each of the plurality of water heaters. This makes it possible to generate operation schedules for each of the plurality of water heaters by selectively changing the water heating time slots for water heaters, excluding those with a low probability of additional water heating occurring. Therefore, it is possible to prevent the water heating time slots determined based on the operation schedule for each of the plurality of water heaters from overlapping with periods when additional water heating is required, thereby preventing hot water shortages for each of the plurality of water heaters. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1] Schematic configuration diagram of a hot water supply system according to a first embodiment of the present disclosure. [Figure 2] A block diagram showing a hardware configuration of a hot water supply system according to a first embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration of a cloud server according to a first embodiment. [Figure 4] 1A is a diagram showing an example of information stored in a remaining hot water amount storage unit according to the first embodiment, and FIG. 1B is a diagram showing an example of information stored in a supply hot water amount storage unit according to the embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of information stored in a water heater power consumption amount storage unit according to the first embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of information stored in a feature amount storage unit according to the first embodiment; [Figure 7] FIG. 1A is a diagram showing an example of information stored in a meteorological information storage unit according to the first embodiment; FIG. 1B is a diagram showing an example of information stored in a power generation level storage unit according to the first embodiment; [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of information stored in a boiling operation history storage unit according to the first embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of an additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model according to the first embodiment. [Figure 10] A sequence diagram showing an example of the operation of the hot water supply system according to the first embodiment. [Figure 11] A sequence diagram showing an example of the operation of the hot water supply system according to the first embodiment. [Figure 12] A sequence diagram showing an example of the operation of the hot water supply system according to the first embodiment. [Figure 13] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of the flow of a water heater control process executed by a cloud server according to the first embodiment. [Figure 14] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of the flow of a water heater control process executed by a cloud server according to the first embodiment. [Figure 15]10 is a flowchart showing an example of the flow of a model update process executed by the cloud server according to the first embodiment. [Figure 16] Schematic configuration diagram of a hot water supply system according to a second embodiment of the present disclosure. [Figure 17] 10 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of a cloud server according to a second embodiment. [Figure 18] A sequence diagram showing an example of the operation of the hot water supply system according to the second embodiment. [Figure 19] A sequence diagram showing an example of the operation of the hot water supply system according to the second embodiment. [Figure 20] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of the flow of a water heater control process executed by a cloud server according to a second embodiment. [Figure 21] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of an operation screen image displayed on a display unit of an operating device of a water heater according to a modified example. [Figure 22] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a water heater operation status notification image displayed on a display unit of a terminal device according to a modified example. [Figure 23] FIG. 10 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of a cloud server according to a modified example. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0009] (Embodiment 1) A water heater control device according to each embodiment of the present disclosure will be described below with reference to the drawings. The water heater control device according to the present embodiment includes: a water heater information acquisition unit that acquires water heater information for calculating at least one feature amount indicating a characteristic of a usage status of boiled water for each of a plurality of water heaters; a water heater time slot changeability determination unit that determines, for each of the plurality of water heaters, whether a water heater time slot is changeable between the first time point and a third time point that is a reference time later than the first time point, based on a probability of occurrence of additional boiling water estimated from the at least one feature amount calculated based on the water heater information for the period from a second time point that is a reference time earlier than the first time point to the first time point; and a schedule generation unit that generates schedule information indicating an operation schedule for each of the plurality of water heaters, based on whether the water heater time slot is changeable for each of the plurality of water heaters.

[0010] As shown in FIG. 1 , the hot water supply system according to this embodiment includes a water heater 3 installed in each of a plurality of residences H[0], H[1], . . . , H[i], . . . (i is an integer equal to or greater than 0), and a power conditioner 4 that supplies power generated by a power generation facility 5 using natural energy to devices (not shown) including the water heater 3 installed in each residence H[i]. Each residence H[i] is equipped with a broadband router (hereinafter referred to as "BBR") 61 that can communicate with the water heater 3 and the power conditioner 4 via a local area network NW2. The BBR 61 is connected to a wide area network NW1 such as the Internet. The local area network NW2 is a wireless local area network (LAN) or a wired LAN. The hot water supply system according to this embodiment also includes a terminal device 7 managed by a so-called aggregator that manages the water heater 3 installed in each residence H[i], and a cloud server 1. The terminal device 7 and the cloud server 1 are capable of communicating with each other via the wide area network NW1.

[0011] The water heater 3 is a storage-type water heater having a hot water storage tank (not shown) and a heat pump unit (not shown), and the heat pump unit boils water stored in the hot water storage tank. The heat pump unit has a heat pump (not shown) and a control board (not shown) that controls the heat pump. Here, water sent from the hot water storage tank to a heat exchanger by a pump is heated in the heat pump's heat exchanger and returned to the hot water storage tank. Hot water is then supplied to the bathroom or kitchen in the house H[i] from a hot water outlet pipe installed in the hot water storage tank. The water heater 3 also includes a controller 31 connected to the control board via a communication line (not shown) and controlling the operation of the heat pump unit; a water heater power consumption measurement unit 32 measuring the amount of power consumed by the water heater 3; a remaining hot water amount measurement unit 33 measuring the amount of hot water remaining in the hot water storage tank; a hot water supply amount measurement unit 34 measuring the flow rate of hot water supplied from the water heater 3 to a shower (not shown), a faucet (not shown), and a bathtub (not shown) installed in the house H[i]; and a communication adapter 39. The water heater power consumption measurement unit 32, the remaining hot water amount measurement unit 33, and the hot water supply amount measurement unit 34 are each connected to the controller 31 via a communication line and periodically output information indicating the measured amount of power, remaining hot water amount, and hot water supply amount to the controller 31. The communication adapter 39 controls communication between the controller 31 and the cloud server 1 via the local network NW2, the BBR61, and the wide area network NW1.

[0012] The controller 31 has a schedule storage unit (not shown) that stores schedule information indicating the operation schedule of the heat pump unit, and controls the operation of the heat pump unit by outputting control information to the control board according to the operation schedule indicated by the schedule information. Furthermore, when the controller 31 acquires schedule notification information including the operation schedule information transmitted from the cloud server 1, it extracts the schedule information included in the acquired schedule notification information and stores it in the schedule storage unit.

[0013] Furthermore, each time a predetermined water heater information transmission period arrives, controller 31 generates water heater power consumption information and hot water supply information indicating the amount of power consumed by water heater 3 and the amount of hot water supplied from water heater 3 to each of the showers, faucets, and bathtubs installed in residence H[i] during the period from the immediately preceding water heater information transmission period to the current water heater information transmission period. Here, the water heater information transmission period is set to occur, for example, every hour. Controller 31 also generates remaining hot water volume information indicating the amount of hot water remaining in the hot water storage tank at the water heater information transmission period. Controller 31 then generates water heater information including the generated water heater power consumption information, remaining hot water volume information, and hot water supply volume information, water heater information identifying water heater 3, and date and time information indicating the water heater information transmission period, and transmits this information to cloud server 1. Furthermore, the controller 31 executes an operation to boil additional hot water when the amount of remaining hot water in the hot water storage tank measured by the remaining hot water amount measuring unit 33 falls below a preset remaining hot water amount threshold. At this time, the controller 31 generates additional boiling occurrence notification information notifying that the operation to boil additional hot water has been executed, and transmits it to the cloud server 1.

[0014] The power conditioner 4 is connected to the power generation facility 5 and the water heater 3 via a power line and supplies a portion of the power generated by the power generation facility 5 to the water heater 3. The power conditioner 4 includes a power generation amount measurement unit (not shown) that measures the amount of power generated by the power generation facility 5 connected to the power conditioner 4 itself, and a power generation amount notification unit (not shown) that generates power generation amount notification information including power generation amount information indicating the measured amount of power generated, date and time information indicating the date and time when the power generation amount was measured, and water heater identification information of the water heater 3 installed in the house H[i] in which the power conditioner 4 itself is installed, and transmits the generated power generation amount notification information to the cloud server 1. The power generation amount notification unit generates power generation amount information indicating the amount of power generated by the power generation facility 5 from the previous power generation amount notification time to the current power generation amount notification time every time a predetermined power generation amount notification time arrives. Here, the power generation amount notification time is set to arrive every hour, for example. The power generation amount notification unit then generates power generation amount notification information including the generated power generation amount information and date and time information indicating the power generation amount notification time, and transmits the generated power generation amount notification information to the cloud server 1.

[0015] The terminal device 7 is, for example, a general-purpose personal computer, and includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 701, a main memory 702, an auxiliary memory 703, a display 704, an input unit 705, and a wide-area communication unit 706. The terminal device 7 is used by a user belonging to the aggregator. The main memory 702 is a volatile memory used as a work area for the CPU 701, and the auxiliary memory 703 is a non-volatile memory such as a semiconductor flash memory, and stores programs for realizing various functions of the terminal device 7. The display 704 is a liquid crystal display, an organic EL (Electro-Luminescence) display, or the like, and displays various information. The input unit 705 is, for example, a keyboard, and receives various operation information in response to operations by a user belonging to the aggregator and outputs the received operation information to the CPU 701. The wide-area communication unit 706 has an interface for connecting to the wide-area network NW1.

[0016] When a user performs a schedule request operation on input unit 705 to request transmission of the operation schedules of each water heater 3, terminal device 7 generates schedule request information that requests a list of operation schedules of the water heaters 3 from administrator server 8 in response, and transmits the schedule request information to administrator server 8. When terminal device 7 thereby acquires the schedule list notification information transmitted from administrator server 8, it forms a schedule notification image based on the acquired schedule list notification information and displays it on display unit 704.

[0017] The administrator server 8 manages the operation schedule of each water heater 3 and includes a schedule storage unit (not shown) that stores schedule information indicating the operation schedule of each water heater 3 in association with the water heater identification information of the water heater 3. When the administrator server 8 acquires schedule notification information transmitted from the cloud server 1, including schedule information indicating the operation schedule of each water heater 3 and the water heater identification information, the administrator server 8 extracts the schedule information and the water heater identification information contained in the acquired schedule notification information and stores them in association with each other in the schedule storage unit. When the administrator server 8 acquires schedule request information transmitted from the terminal device 7, the administrator server 8 generates schedule list notification information indicating the operation schedule of each water heater 3 based on the schedule information stored in the schedule storage unit. The administrator server 8 then transmits the generated schedule list notification information to the terminal device 7.

[0018] The weather server 9 has a weather information storage unit (not shown) that stores actual weather information indicating past weather conditions and weather forecast information indicating predicted future weather conditions for a plurality of preset regions, in association with area identification information that identifies the regions. When the weather server 9 receives weather information request information transmitted from the cloud server 1, it identifies the actual weather information and weather forecast information corresponding to the area identification information included in the received weather information request information from the actual weather information and weather forecast information stored in the weather information storage unit. The weather server 9 then generates weather information including the identified actual weather information and weather forecast information and the area identification information, and transmits the generated weather information to the cloud server 1 that transmitted the weather information request information.

[0019] Returning to FIG. 2, the cloud server 1 is connected to the water heater 3 via the local network NW2, BBR61, and wide area network NW1, and functions as a water heater control device that controls the water heater 3. The cloud server 1 is, for example, a computer used as a server, and includes a CPU 101, a main memory unit 102, an auxiliary memory unit 103, a wide area communication unit 106, a clock unit 108, and a bus 109 that connects the various units. The CPU 101 is, for example, a multi-core processor. The main memory unit 102 is a volatile memory and is used as a work area for the CPU 101. The auxiliary memory unit 103 has non-volatile memory, functions as a ROM and storage, and stores programs for realizing various functions of the cloud server 1. The wide area communication unit 106 communicates with the water heater 3 via the wide area network NW1 and BBR61. The clock unit 108 has, for example, an RTC (Real Time Clock).

[0020] By reading and executing the programs stored in the auxiliary memory unit 103 into the main memory unit 102, the CPU 101 functions as a water heater information acquisition unit 111, a daytime electricity utilization rate calculation unit 114, a daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115, a tank utilization rate calculation unit 116, a standard deviation calculation unit 117, a daytime boiling possibility determination unit 118, an additional boiling occurrence notification acquisition unit 119, a model generation unit 120, a schedule generation unit 122, a schedule notification unit 123, a weather information acquisition unit 124, a power generation amount acquisition unit 125, and a power generation amount level estimation unit 126, as shown in FIG. 3. In addition, the auxiliary memory unit 103 shown in Figure 2 has, as shown in Figure 3, a remaining hot water amount memory unit 131, a supplied hot water amount memory unit 132, a water heater power consumption memory unit 133, a feature memory unit 134, a weather information memory unit 135, a power generation level memory unit 136, a boiling operation history memory unit 137, a model memory unit 138, a daytime boiling availability information memory unit 139, and a schedule memory unit 141.

[0021] As shown in FIG. 4(A), for example, the remaining hot water storage unit 131 stores remaining hot water information indicating the amount of hot water remaining in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 3 installed in each of the multiple residences H[i], in association with date and time information indicating the date and time of the water heater information transmission period and water heater identification information. The example shown in FIG. 4(A) shows an example where the water heater information transmission period occurs every hour. As shown in FIG. 4(B), for example, the supplied hot water information storage unit 132 stores supplied hot water information indicating the amount of hot water supplied to the shower, faucet, and bathtub from the water heater 3 installed in each of the multiple residences H[i], in association with date and time information indicating the date and time of the water heater information transmission period and water heater identification information. The example shown in FIG. 4(B) shows an example where the water heater information transmission period occurs every hour. As shown in Figure 5, for example, the water heater power consumption memory unit 133 stores the actual values ​​of the power consumption consumed by the water heater 3 during each of multiple pre-set time periods for the water heaters 3 installed in each of multiple homes H[i], in association with date and time information indicating the date and time of the aforementioned water heater information transmission and water heater identification information.

[0022] As shown in FIG. 6, the feature storage unit 134 stores feature information indicating multiple types of feature quantities for each water heater 3 installed in each residence H[i] in association with water heater identification information IDW[i] (i = 0, 1, 2, ...) that identifies the water heater 3 and information indicating a first target period (described below) for which the multiple types of feature quantities are calculated at a predetermined schedule generation time. In the example shown in FIG. 6, the feature quantities used are "daytime hot water utilization rate," "daytime electricity utilization rate," "daytime electricity utilization rate," "tank utilization rate," "standard deviation," "daytime shower hot water utilization rate," "daytime faucet hot water utilization rate," and "daytime bath hot water utilization rate." Here, "daytime hot water utilization rate" is a feature quantity indicating the average hot water utilization rate during the daytime hours during a predetermined first target period for which feature quantities are calculated from a point in time a predetermined first reference time before the predetermined schedule generation time to the schedule generation time. Here, the schedule generation time is set to occur, for example, every day. The first reference time is set to be one day or longer, for example, one week. Furthermore, the daytime period is the first designated period, which is set, for example, from 6:00 to 15:00. The hot water utilization rate indicates the ratio of the amount of hot water used during the daytime period to the total amount of hot water used per day.

[0023] "Daytime power utilization rate" is a feature that indicates the average value of the ratio of the amount of power consumed by the water heater 3 during daytime hours during the aforementioned first target period. The power consumption ratio indicates the ratio of the amount of power consumed by the water heater 3 during daytime hours to the total amount of power consumed by the water heater 3 per day. "Tank utilization rate" is a feature that indicates the average value of the ratio of the amount of hot water used during a second specified time period in one day to the maximum amount of hot water that can be supplied when the hot water storage tank of the water heater 3 is full during the aforementioned first target period. Here, the second specified time period is set, for example, between 0:00 and 24:00, i.e., during the day. "Standard deviation" is a feature that indicates the standard deviation of the amount of hot water used per day during the aforementioned first target period.

[0024] "Daytime shower hot water utilization rate" is a feature that indicates the average utilization rate of hot water supplied to showers during daytime hours in the aforementioned first target period. This utilization rate of hot water supplied to showers indicates the ratio of the amount of hot water supplied to showers during daytime hours to the total amount of hot water used per day. "Daytime faucet hot water utilization rate" is a feature that indicates the average utilization rate of hot water supplied to faucets during daytime hours in the aforementioned first target period. This utilization rate of hot water supplied to faucets indicates the ratio of the amount of hot water supplied to faucets during daytime hours to the total amount of hot water used per day. "Daytime bath hot water utilization rate" is a feature that indicates the average utilization rate of hot water supplied to fill bathtubs during daytime hours in the aforementioned first target period. This utilization rate of hot water supplied to bathtubs indicates the ratio of the amount of hot water supplied to bathtubs during daytime hours to the total amount of hot water used per day.

[0025] In addition, the feature storage unit 134 stores feature information indicating each of multiple types of feature calculated at each schedule generation period that has occurred in the past, in association with information indicating the first target period at that schedule generation period.

[0026] Returning to Fig. 3, the weather information storage unit 135 stores, as shown in Fig. 7(A), weather record information indicating past weather conditions and weather forecast information indicating future weather conditions in association with date and time information and water heater identification information. Here, the date and time information is set to be the same as the date and time indicating the aforementioned power generation output notification period, for example. The weather information storage unit 135 then stores weather condition information indicating the weather conditions from the past first power generation output notification period to the next second power generation output notification period in association with date and time information indicating the second power generation output notification period. The weather information storage unit 135 also stores weather forecast information indicating the weather conditions predicted for the future period from the future third power generation output notification period to the next fourth power generation output notification period in association with date and time information indicating the fourth power generation output notification period.

[0027] 7(B), the power generation amount level storage unit 136 stores power generation amount level information indicating past performance of power generation amount levels when the power generation amount generated by the power generation equipment 5 installed in each residence H[i] is classified into multiple preset levels based on the amount of power generated. The power generation amount level information is stored in association with date and time information indicating the date and time of the power generation amount notification period and the water heater identification information of the water heater 3 installed in the same residence H[i] as the residence H[i] in which the power generation equipment 5 is installed. The example shown in FIG. 7(B) illustrates a case in which the power generation amount is classified into three levels based on the amount of power generated. The power generation amount level storage unit 136 also stores power generation amount level information of the power generation amount generated by the power generation equipment 5 from the past first power generation amount notification period to the next upcoming second power generation amount notification period in association with date and time information indicating the second power generation amount notification period.

[0028] The water heating operation history storage unit 137 stores additional water heating occurrence flag information, which indicates that the water heater 3 has performed an additional water heating operation in the past, in association with date and time information indicating the date and time of the schedule generation time that occurred immediately after the date and time the additional water heating operation was performed, as shown in Figure 8, for example. The example shown in Figure 8 indicates that the water heater 3 identified by the water heater identification information IDW[0] performed additional water heating between the schedule generation time "2024 / 5 / 7 0:00" and the next schedule generation time "2024 / 5 / 8 0:00".

[0029] Returning to FIG. 3 , the model storage unit 138 stores additional boil-water occurrence probability estimation model information indicating an additional boil-water occurrence probability estimation model for calculating the probability of an additional boil-water operation occurring during the second target period, based on multiple feature values ​​calculated based on various water heater information during the first target period and power generation levels obtained by classifying the amount of power generated by the power generation facility 5 during the second target period from the schedule generation time to a point after the schedule generation time by a second reference time into multiple preset levels based on the magnitude of the power generation level. Here, the length of the second reference time is set, for example, to the time until the next schedule generation time, e.g., one day. The additional boil-water occurrence probability estimation model is, for example, a forward propagation neural network having an input layer L10, a hidden layer L20, and an output layer L30, as shown in FIG. 9 . Here, the various feature values ​​described above are input to the input layer L10. The hidden layer L20 is composed of N (N is a positive integer) layers, each containing a preset number M[j] of nodes x[j,i] (1≦i≦M[j], M[j] is a positive integer). That is, the hidden layer L20 has a structure in which each node column is connected to another. Here, the output y[j,i] of each node x[j,i] is expressed by the relational expression (1) below.

[0030]

number

[0031] Here, W[j,i,k] denotes a weighting coefficient, and f(*) denotes an activation function. This weighting coefficient W[j,i,k] corresponds to the neural network coefficient that determines the structure of the neural network. Nonlinear functions such as a sigmoid function, ramp function, step function, or softmax function are used as the activation function. In the hidden layer L20, the information input to the node is the sum of the outputs of each node in the previous layer multiplied by a weighting coefficient. The output of the activation function, which takes the sum as an argument, is then transmitted to the next layer. The output layer L30 converts the output y[j,i] from the final hidden layer L20 into a probability vector whose elements are the probability of an additional boil-up occurring and the probability of an additional boil-up not occurring, and outputs the vector. The output layer L30 calculates each probability using, for example, a softmax function.

[0032] 9, the model storage unit 138 stores information indicating the structure of the neural network and information indicating weighting coefficients in the neural network. Here, the information indicating the structure of the neural network includes information indicating the number of nodes and layers of the neural network and the activation functions corresponding to each node, and the information indicating the weighting coefficients is information indicating the weighting coefficients W[j,i,k] corresponding to each node of the neural network.

[0033] 3, the daytime boiling availability information storage unit 139 stores daytime boiling availability flag information indicating whether the boiling time can be changed from nighttime to daytime for the water heater 3 installed in each residence H[i] in association with the water heater identification information. The schedule storage unit 141 stores boiling time zone information indicating the boiling time for the water heater 3 installed in each residence H[i] in association with the water heater identification information.

[0034] Water heater information acquisition unit 111 acquires water heater information for calculating the above-mentioned multiple feature amounts for each water heater 3. When water heater information acquisition unit 111 acquires water heater information periodically transmitted from water heater 3, it extracts remaining hot water amount information, flow rate information, water heater power consumption information, water heater identification information, and date and time information included in the acquired water heater information, and stores the extracted remaining hot water amount information, flow rate information, and water heater power consumption information in remaining hot water amount memory unit 131, supplied hot water amount memory unit 132, and water heater power consumption memory unit 133, respectively, in association with the extracted water heater identification information and date and time information.

[0035] The daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115 is a first designated time slot hot water utilization rate calculation unit that calculates the hot water utilization rate during daytime hours within a first target period as a feature value based on remaining hot water volume information included in the hot water heater information. The daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115 references the remaining hot water volume information stored in the remaining hot water volume storage unit 131 to calculate the total hot water usage for each day within the first target period and the hot water usage during daytime hours. The daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115 also calculates the ratio of the hot water usage during daytime hours to the total hot water usage for each day within the first target period as the daytime hot water utilization rate. The daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115 then calculates the average value of the calculated daytime hot water utilization rates within the first target period and stores daytime hot water utilization rate information indicating the calculated average value in the feature value storage unit 134 in association with the hot water heater identification information of the corresponding hot water heater 3.

[0036] The daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115 also calculates the cumulative amount of hot water supplied to the showers, faucets, and bathtubs during the daytime on each day within the aforementioned first target period, by referring to the information on the amount of hot water supplied to the showers, faucets, and bathtubs installed in the residence H[i] stored in the hot water supply amount storage unit 132. The daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115 then calculates the ratio of the cumulative amount of hot water supplied to the showers, faucets, and bathtubs during the daytime to the total amount of hot water used on each day within the first target period as the daytime shower hot water utilization rate, daytime faucet hot water utilization rate, and daytime bath hot water utilization rate. Then, the daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115 calculates the average value for each of the calculated daytime shower hot water utilization rate, daytime faucet hot water utilization rate, and daytime bath hot water utilization rate within the first target period, and stores the daytime shower hot water utilization rate information, daytime faucet hot water utilization rate information, and daytime bath hot water utilization rate information indicating the calculated average values ​​in the feature memory unit 134 in association with the hot water heater identification information of the corresponding hot water heater 3.

[0037] Daytime power utilization rate calculation unit 114 is a first specified time slot power utilization rate calculation unit that calculates, as a feature, the ratio of the amount of power consumed by water heater 3 during daytime hours during a first target period, based on water heater power consumption information included in the water heater information. Daytime power utilization rate calculation unit 114 references the water heater power consumption information stored in water heater power consumption storage unit 133 to calculate the total amount of power consumed by water heater 3 for each day during the first target period and the amount of power consumed by water heater 3 during daytime hours. Daytime power utilization rate calculation unit 114 then calculates, as a daytime power utilization rate, the ratio of the amount of power consumed during daytime hours to the total amount of power consumed by water heater 3 for each day during the first target period. Daytime power utilization rate calculation unit 114 then calculates the average value of the calculated daytime power utilization rates during the first target period, and stores daytime power utilization rate information indicating the calculated average value in feature value storage unit 134 in association with the water heater identification information of the corresponding water heater 3.

[0038] Tank utilization rate calculation unit 116 calculates the amount of hot water used in the second designated time slot for each day in the first target period by referring to the remaining hot water amount information stored in remaining hot water amount storage unit 131. Tank utilization rate calculation unit 116 also stores information in advance indicating the maximum amount of hot water that can be supplied when the hot water storage tank of water heater 3 is full, and calculates the ratio of the calculated amount of hot water used in the second designated time slot to the maximum amount of hot water that can be supplied for each day in the first target period as the tank utilization rate. Daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115 then calculates the average value of the calculated tank utilization rates for the first target period, and stores tank utilization rate information indicating the calculated average value in feature amount storage unit 134 in association with the water heater identification information of the corresponding water heater 3.

[0039] Standard deviation calculation unit 117 calculates the amount of hot water used in the second designated time slot for each day in the first target period by referring to the remaining hot water amount information stored in remaining hot water amount storage unit 131, and calculates the standard deviation of the amount of hot water used in the second designated time slot for each day in the first target period. Then, standard deviation calculation unit 117 stores the standard deviation information indicating the calculated standard deviation in feature amount storage unit 134 in association with the hot water heater identification information of the corresponding hot water heater 3.

[0040] When the additional boiling occurrence notification acquisition unit 119 acquires the aforementioned additional boiling occurrence notification information transmitted from the water heater 3, it generates additional boiling occurrence flag information indicating that additional boiling has occurred, and stores this in the boiling operation history storage unit 137 in association with date and time information indicating the date and time of the schedule generation period that occurs immediately after the date and time when the additional boiling occurrence notification information was acquired.

[0041] When a preset time for obtaining weather information arrives, the weather information obtaining unit 124 generates weather information request information that requests the weather server 9 to transmit actual weather information indicating past weather conditions and weather forecast information indicating predicted future weather conditions, and transmits the generated weather information request information to the weather server 9. Here, the weather information request information includes area identification information that identifies the area where the house H[i] in which each water heater 3 is installed is located. As a result, the weather information obtaining unit 124 obtains the weather information transmitted from the weather server 9, and stores the actual weather information and weather forecast information included in the obtained weather information in association with the corresponding water heater identification information and date and time information.

[0042] When the power generation amount acquiring unit 125 acquires the power generation amount notification information periodically transmitted from the power conditioner 4, it extracts the power generation amount information, the water heater identification information, and the date and time information included in the acquired power generation amount notification information. Next, the power generation amount acquiring unit 125 calculates the power generation amount level when the power generation amount indicated by the extracted power generation amount information is classified into a plurality of predetermined levels based on its magnitude. Then, the power generation amount acquiring unit 125 stores the power generation amount level information indicating the calculated power generation amount level in the power generation amount level storage unit 136 in association with the extracted water heater identification information and the date and time information.

[0043] The power generation level estimation unit 126 identifies a correlation between the power generation level and the weather conditions by referring to the actual weather information stored in the weather information storage unit 135 and the power generation level information stored in the power generation level storage unit 136, and estimates the power generation level of the power generation facility 5 for the second target period from the identified correlation and the weather conditions indicated by the weather forecast information for the second target period stored in the weather information storage unit 135. The power generation level estimation unit 126 then notifies the daytime boiling availability determination unit 118 of the power generation level information indicating the estimated power generation level.

[0044] Daytime water heating possibility determination unit 118 is a water heating time slot change possibility determination unit that determines whether to change the water heating time slot during the second target period for each of the multiple water heaters 3 based on the probability of additional water heating occurring estimated from multiple feature amounts calculated based on the water heater information for the first target period and the power generation level for the second target period. Specifically, daytime water heating possibility determination unit 118 determines the probability of additional water heating occurring for each of the multiple water heaters 3 using the additional water heating occurrence probability estimation model from the multiple feature amounts calculated based on the water heater information for the first target period and the power generation level of power generation equipment 5 for the second target period, and determines whether to change the water heating time slot depending on whether the calculated probability of additional water heating occurring is equal to or greater than a predetermined reference occurrence probability. Here, the reference occurrence probability is set to, for example, 0.5. If the calculated probability of additional boiling occurring for each of the plurality of water heaters is equal to or greater than the aforementioned reference occurrence probability, the daytime boiling possibility determination unit 118 determines that the boiling time period cannot be changed, and if the calculated probability of additional boiling occurring is less than the reference occurrence probability, determines that the boiling time period can be changed. Then, the daytime boiling possibility determination unit 118 generates daytime boiling possibility flag information indicating the determination result for each of the plurality of water heaters 3, and stores this in the daytime boiling possibility information storage unit 139 in association with the water heater identification information.

[0045] Model generation unit 120 updates the additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model using additional boiling occurrence flag information and date and time information that indicate the time when a past boiling operation occurred, stored in boiling operation history storage unit 137, past feature information stored in feature storage unit 134, and past power generation amount information stored in power generation amount level storage unit 136. Specifically, model generation unit 120 first uses the additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model before the update to generate the above-mentioned probability vector from the feature at the date and time when the additional boiling occurred and the power generation amount of power generation facility 5. Next, model generation unit 120 calculates the error between the generated probability vector and a probability vector in which an element corresponding to the probability of an additional boiling occurring is set to "1" and an element corresponding to the probability of an additional boiling not occurring is set to "0." Then, based on the calculated error, the model generation unit 120 determines new weight coefficients for the neural network that constitutes the additional boil-up occurrence probability estimation model using the error backpropagation method, and updates the weight coefficient information stored in the model storage unit 138 with weight coefficient information indicating the determined weight coefficients.

[0046] Schedule generation unit 122 calculates the required amount of hot water based on the history of the remaining hot water amount indicated by the remaining hot water amount information stored in remaining hot water amount storage unit 131, and calculates the boiling time required to boil the calculated amount of hot water. Then, schedule generation unit 122 references the daytime boiling availability flag information for each water heater 3 stored in daytime boiling availability information storage unit 139, and generates an operation schedule in which, for water heaters 3 that are capable of daytime boiling, the water heaters 3 perform the boiling operation for the calculated boiling time during daytime hours. On the other hand, schedule generation unit 122 generates an operation schedule in which, for water heaters 3 that are not capable of daytime boiling, the water heaters 3 perform the boiling operation for the calculated boiling time during nighttime hours. Then, schedule generation unit 122 stores schedule information indicating the operation schedule generated for each water heater 3 in schedule storage unit 141, in association with the water heater identification information. Schedule notification unit 123 generates schedule notification information including the schedule information stored in schedule storage unit 141 and the corresponding water heater identification information, and transmits the schedule notification information to water heater 3 and administrator server 8.

[0047] Next, the operation of the hot water supply system according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 10 to Fig. 12. First, as shown in Fig. 10, when a preset time to transmit hot water supply information arrives, hot water supply machine 3 generates the above-mentioned hot water supply information (step S1), and the generated hot water supply information is transmitted from hot water supply machine 3 to cloud server 1 (step S2). Meanwhile, when cloud server 1 acquires the hot water supply information transmitted from hot water supply machine 3, it extracts remaining hot water amount information, flow rate information, hot water supply power consumption information, hot water supply machine identification information, and date and time information contained in the acquired hot water supply information, and stores the extracted remaining hot water amount information, flow rate information, and hot water supply power consumption information in remaining hot water amount storage unit 131, supplied hot water amount storage unit 132, and hot water supply power consumption storage unit 133 in association with the extracted hot water supply identification information and date and time information, respectively (step S3).

[0048] Next, when a preset power generation amount notification time arrives, the power conditioner 4 generates the above-mentioned power generation amount notification information (step S4), and the generated power generation amount notification information is transmitted from the power conditioner 4 to the cloud server 1 (step S5). Meanwhile, when the cloud server 1 acquires the power generation amount notification information transmitted from the power conditioner 4, it extracts the power generation amount information, the water heater identification information, and the date and time information included in the acquired power generation amount notification information. Then, the cloud server 1 calculates the power generation amount level when classifying the power generation amount indicated by the extracted power generation amount information into a plurality of preset levels based on the magnitude of the power generation amount, and stores the power generation amount level information indicating the calculated power generation amount level in the power generation amount level storage unit 136 in association with the extracted water heater identification information and the date and time information (step S6).

[0049] Subsequently, when the preset weather information acquisition time arrives, the cloud server 1 generates the aforementioned weather information request information (step S7), and the generated weather information request information is transmitted from the cloud server 1 to the weather server 9 (step S8). Meanwhile, when the weather server 9 acquires the weather information request information transmitted from the cloud server 1, it identifies the weather record information and weather forecast information corresponding to the area identification information included in the acquired weather information request information from the weather record information and weather forecast information stored in the weather information storage unit (step S9). Thereafter, the weather server 9 generates weather information including the identified weather record information and weather forecast information and the area identification information (step S10), and the generated weather information is transmitted from the weather server 9 to the cloud server 1 (step S11). Meanwhile, when the cloud server 1 acquires the weather information transmitted from the weather server 9, it extracts the weather record information and weather forecast information included in the acquired weather information and stores them in association with the corresponding water heater identification information and date and time information (step S12).

[0050] Next, as shown in FIG. 11 , assume that an additional boiling event occurs in water heater 3, in which the amount of remaining hot water in the hot water storage tank measured by remaining hot water amount measuring unit 33 falls below a preset remaining hot water amount threshold. In this case, water heater 3 executes an operation to boil additional hot water (step S13) and generates the aforementioned additional boiling occurrence notification information (step S14). Next, the generated additional boiling occurrence notification information is transmitted from water heater 3 to cloud server 1 (step S15). Meanwhile, upon receiving the aforementioned additional boiling occurrence notification information transmitted from water heater 3, cloud server 1 generates additional boiling occurrence flag information indicating that additional boiling has occurred, and stores this in boiling operation history storage unit 137 in association with date and time information indicating the date and time when the additional boiling occurrence notification information was acquired (step S16).

[0051] Thereafter, when the schedule generation time arrives, the cloud server 1 calculates the plurality of feature quantities and stores feature quantity information indicating the calculated plurality of feature quantities in the feature quantity storage unit 134 (step S17). Specifically, the cloud server 1 calculates the average daytime hot water usage rate during the first target period, the average daytime shower hot water usage rate, the average daytime faucet hot water usage rate, and the average daytime bath hot water usage rate during the first target period, the average daytime electricity usage rate during the first target period, the average tank usage rate during the first target period, and the standard deviation of the amount of hot water used during the second specified time slot for each day during the first target period. Next, the cloud server 1 estimates the amount of power generated by the power generation facility 5 during the second target period by referring to the actual weather information stored in the weather information storage unit 135 and the power generation amount information stored in the power generation amount level storage unit 136. The cloud server 1 then calculates the power generation amount levels by classifying the estimated power generation amounts into a plurality of preset levels based on their magnitudes (step S18).

[0052] Next, the cloud server 1 determines whether or not the water heating time slot for each of the plurality of water heaters 3 in the second target period can be changed, based on the occurrence probability of additional water heating estimated from the plurality of feature amounts calculated based on the water heater information for the first target period and the power generation level of the power generation facility 5 in the second target period. Then, the cloud server 1 generates daytime water heating availability flag information indicating the determination result for each of the plurality of water heaters 3, and stores the flag information in the daytime water heating availability information storage unit 139 in association with the water heater identification information (step S19).

[0053] Thereafter, cloud server 1 calculates the required amount of hot water based on the history of the remaining hot water amount indicated by the remaining hot water amount information stored in remaining hot water amount storage unit 131, and calculates the boiling time required to boil the calculated amount of hot water. Then, cloud server 1 references the daytime boiling availability flag information for each water heater 3 stored in daytime boiling availability information storage unit 139, generates an operation schedule for each water heater 3, and stores the schedule information indicating the generated operation schedule in schedule storage unit 141 in association with the water heater identification information (step S20). Next, cloud server 1 generates schedule notification information including a combination of the schedule information stored in schedule storage unit 141 and the corresponding water heater identification information (step S21), and the generated schedule notification information is transmitted from cloud server 1 to each water heater 3 (step S22). Meanwhile, upon acquiring the schedule notification information, each water heater 3 extracts the schedule information included in the acquired schedule notification information and stores it in its schedule storage unit (step S23). Next, the water heater 3 starts operating in accordance with the operation schedule indicated by the schedule information stored in the schedule storage unit (step S24).

[0054] 12, the generated schedule notification information is also transmitted from the cloud server 1 to the administrator server 8 (step S25). Meanwhile, upon acquiring the schedule notification information, the administrator server 8 extracts the schedule information included in the acquired schedule notification information and stores it in the schedule storage unit (step S26).

[0055] Thereafter, suppose that a user belonging to the aggregator performs a schedule request operation to request the terminal device 7 to transmit the operation schedules of each water heater 3. In this case, the terminal device 7 generates the schedule request information described above in response to this (step S27), and the generated schedule request information is transmitted from the terminal device 7 to the administrator server 8 (step S28). Meanwhile, upon receiving the schedule request information transmitted from the terminal device 7, the administrator server 8 generates schedule list notification information indicating the operation schedules of each water heater 3 based on the schedule information stored in the schedule storage unit (step S29). Next, the generated schedule list notification information is transmitted from the administrator server 8 to the terminal device 7 (step S30). Meanwhile, upon receiving the schedule list notification information transmitted from the administrator server 8, the terminal device 7 forms a schedule notification image based on the received schedule list notification information and displays it on the display unit 704 (step S31).

[0056] Next, when it is time to update the preset additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model, the cloud server 1 updates the additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model using the additional boiling occurrence flag information and date and time information stored in the boiling operation history storage unit 137, the past feature amount information stored in the feature amount storage unit 134, and the past power generation amount level information stored in the power generation amount level storage unit 136 (step S32).

[0057] Next, the water heater control processing executed by the cloud server 1 according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 13 to Fig. 15. This water heater control processing is started when a program for executing the water heater control processing is started in the cloud server 1. First, as shown in Fig. 13, the water heater information acquisition unit 111 determines whether or not the above-mentioned water heater information transmitted from the water heater 3 has been acquired (step S101). Here, if the water heater information acquisition unit 111 determines that the water heater information has not been acquired (step S101: No), the processing of step S103 described below is executed. On the other hand, when the water heater information acquisition unit 111 determines that it has acquired water heater information (step S101: Yes), it extracts the remaining hot water amount information, flow rate information, water heater power consumption information, water heater identification information, and date and time information contained in the acquired water heater information, and stores the extracted remaining hot water amount information, flow rate information, and water heater power consumption information in the remaining hot water amount memory unit 131, the supplied hot water amount memory unit 132, and the water heater power consumption memory unit 133, respectively, in correspondence with the extracted water heater identification information and date and time information (step S102).

[0058] Next, the power generation amount acquiring unit 125 determines whether or not the power generation amount notification information transmitted from the power conditioner 4 has been acquired (step S103). If the power generation amount acquiring unit 125 determines that the power generation amount notification information has not been acquired (step S103: No), the process of step S105 described below is executed. On the other hand, if the power generation amount acquiring unit 125 determines that the power generation amount notification information has been acquired (step S103: Yes), the power generation amount acquiring unit 125 extracts the power generation amount information, the water heater identification information, and the date and time information included in the acquired power generation amount notification information. The power generation amount acquiring unit 125 also calculates the power generation amount level when the power generation amount indicated by the extracted power generation amount information is classified into a plurality of predetermined levels based on its magnitude. Then, the power generation amount acquiring unit 125 stores the power generation amount level information indicating the calculated power generation amount level in the power generation amount level storage unit 136 in association with the extracted water heater identification information and the date and time information (step S104).

[0059] Next, the weather information acquisition unit 124 determines whether a preset weather information acquisition time has arrived (step S105). If the weather information acquisition unit 124 determines that the weather information acquisition time has not yet arrived (step S105: No), the process of step S109, which will be described later, is executed. On the other hand, if the weather information acquisition unit 124 determines that the weather information acquisition time has arrived (step S105: Yes), the weather information acquisition unit 124 generates the above-mentioned weather information request information and transmits the generated weather information request information to the weather server 9 (step S106), thereby acquiring the weather information transmitted from the weather server 9 (step S107). Thereafter, the weather information acquisition unit 124 extracts the actual weather information and the weather forecast information included in the acquired weather information, and stores the extracted information in association with the corresponding water heater identification information and date and time information indicating the date and time of the power generation amount notification time (step S108).

[0060] Next, additional boiling occurrence notification acquirer 119 determines whether or not it has acquired the aforementioned additional boiling occurrence notification information transmitted from water heater 3 (step S109). If additional boiling occurrence notification acquirer 119 determines that it has not acquired additional boiling occurrence notification information (step S109: No), it executes the processing of step S111, which will be described later. On the other hand, if additional boiling occurrence notification acquirer 119 determines that it has acquired additional boiling occurrence notification information (step S109: Yes), it generates the aforementioned additional boiling occurrence flag information and stores it in boiling operation history storage unit 137 in association with date and time information indicating the date and time when the additional boiling occurrence notification information was acquired (step S110).

[0061] 14, the daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115, the daytime electricity utilization rate calculation unit 114, the tank utilization rate calculation unit 116, and the standard deviation calculation unit 117 determine whether the schedule generation time has arrived (step S111). If the daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115, the daytime electricity utilization rate calculation unit 114, the tank utilization rate calculation unit 116, and the standard deviation calculation unit 117 determine that the schedule generation time has not yet arrived (step S111: No), the process of step S117, which will be described later, is executed. On the other hand, if the daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115, the daytime electricity utilization rate calculation unit 114, the tank utilization rate calculation unit 116, and the standard deviation calculation unit 117 determine that the schedule generation time has arrived (step S111: Yes), they each calculate feature amounts and store them in the feature amount storage unit 134 (step S112). Here, the daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115 refers to the remaining hot water amount information stored in the remaining hot water amount memory unit 131 to calculate the daytime hot water utilization rate for each day within the aforementioned first target period, and stores the daytime hot water utilization rate information indicating the average value of the calculated daytime hot water utilization rate within the first target period in the feature memory unit 134 in association with the hot water heater identification information of the corresponding hot water heater 3. In addition, the daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115 refers to the hot water volume information stored in the hot water volume memory unit 132 that is supplied to the showers, faucets, and bathtubs installed in the residence H[i], and calculates the daytime shower hot water utilization rate, daytime faucet hot water utilization rate, and daytime bath hot water utilization rate for each day within the aforementioned first target period, and stores the daytime shower hot water utilization rate information, daytime faucet hot water utilization rate information, and daytime bath hot water utilization rate information, which indicate the average values ​​of the calculated daytime shower hot water utilization rate, daytime faucet hot water utilization rate, and daytime bath hot water utilization rate within the first target period, in association with the hot water heater identification information of the corresponding hot water heater 3 in the feature memory unit 134.

[0062] Furthermore, daytime power utilization rate calculation unit 114 refers to the water heater power consumption information stored in water heater power consumption amount storage unit 133 to calculate the daytime power utilization rate for each day within the aforementioned first target period, and stores daytime power utilization rate information indicating the average value of the calculated daytime power utilization rate within the first target period in association with the water heater identification information of the corresponding water heater 3 in feature amount storage unit 134. Furthermore, tank utilization rate calculation unit 116 refers to the remaining hot water amount information stored in remaining hot water amount storage unit 131 to calculate the tank utilization rate for each day within the aforementioned first target period, and stores tank utilization rate information indicating the average value of the calculated tank utilization rate within the first target period in association with the water heater identification information of the corresponding water heater 3 in feature amount storage unit 134. Furthermore, the standard deviation calculation unit 117 refers to the remaining hot water amount information stored in the remaining hot water amount memory unit 131 to calculate the standard deviation of the hot water amount used during the second specified time period on each day within the first target period, and stores the standard deviation information indicating the calculated standard deviation in the feature memory unit 134 in association with the hot water heater identification information of the corresponding hot water heater 3.

[0063] Thereafter, the power generation level estimation unit 126 refers to the actual weather information stored in the weather information storage unit 135 and the power generation level information stored in the power generation level storage unit 136 to identify the correlation between the power generation level and the weather conditions, and estimates the power generation level of the power generation equipment 5 for the second target period from the identified correlation and the weather conditions indicated by the weather forecast information for the second target period stored in the weather information storage unit 135 (step S113).

[0064] Next, daytime boiling availability determination unit 118 determines whether the boiling time slot for each of multiple water heaters 3 during the second target period is changeable, based on the probability of additional boiling occurring estimated from multiple feature amounts calculated based on the water heater information for the first target period and the power generation level for the second target period. Daytime boiling availability determination unit 118 then generates daytime boiling availability flag information indicating the determination result for each of multiple water heaters 3, and stores this in daytime boiling availability information storage unit 139 in association with the water heater identification information (step S114). Here, the daytime boiling possibility determination unit 118 uses the aforementioned additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model to determine the probability of an additional boiling operation occurring for each of the multiple water heaters from multiple feature quantities calculated based on the water heater information for the first target period and the power generation level at the power generation equipment 5 for the second target period, and if the determined probability of additional boiling occurring is equal to or greater than the aforementioned standard occurrence probability, it determines that the boiling time period cannot be changed, and if the determined probability of additional boiling occurring is less than the standard occurrence probability, it determines that the boiling time period can be changed.

[0065] Next, schedule generation unit 122 calculates the required amount of hot water based on the history of the remaining hot water amount indicated by the remaining hot water amount information stored in remaining hot water amount storage unit 131, and calculates the boiling time required to boil the calculated amount of hot water. Schedule generation unit 122 then generates an operation schedule for each water heater 3 by referencing the daytime boiling availability flag information for each water heater 3 stored in daytime boiling availability information storage unit 139. Schedule generation unit 122 then stores the schedule information indicating the operation schedule generated for each water heater 3 in schedule storage unit 141 in association with the water heater identification information (step S115). Schedule notification unit 123 then generates schedule notification information including the schedule information stored in schedule storage unit 141 and the corresponding water heater identification information, and transmits the schedule notification information to the water heaters 3 and administrator server 8 (step S116).

[0066] Next, the model generation unit 120 determines whether the time for the model update has arrived (step S117). If the model generation unit 120 determines that the time for the model update has not yet arrived (step S117: No), the process of step S101 is executed again. On the other hand, if the model generation unit 120 determines that the time for the model update has arrived (step S117: Yes), the model generation unit 120 executes the model update process (step S118).

[0067] Here, the model update process executed by the cloud server 1 according to this embodiment will be described in detail with reference to FIG. 15. First, the model generation unit 120 uses the pre-update additional boil-up occurrence probability estimation model to generate the aforementioned probability vector from the feature amount at the time and date when the additional boil-up occurred stored in the feature amount storage unit 134 and the power generation level of the power generation facility 5 at the time and date when the additional boil-up occurred stored in the power generation amount level storage unit 136 (step S201). Next, the model generation unit 120 calculates the error between the generated probability vector and a probability vector in which an element corresponding to the probability of the additional boil-up occurring is set to "1" and an element corresponding to the probability of the additional boil-up not occurring is set to "0" (step S202). Next, the model generation unit 120 determines new weight coefficients of the neural network constituting the additional boil-up occurrence probability estimation model by error backpropagation based on the calculated error (step S203). After that, the model generating unit 120 updates the weighting coefficient information stored in the model storing unit 138 with the weighting coefficient information indicating the determined weighting coefficients (step S204). Returning to Fig. 14, the process of step S101 is then executed again.

[0068] As described above, in the hot water supply system according to the present embodiment, the daytime heating possibility determination unit 118 determines whether or not the heating time slot for each water heater 3 can be changed from nighttime to daytime during the second target period, based on the probability of additional heating occurring estimated from multiple feature amounts calculated based on the water heater information for the first target period. Then, the schedule generation unit 122 generates schedule information indicating the operation schedule for each water heater 3 based on the possibility of changing the heating time slot determined for each water heater 3. This allows the operation schedule for each water heater 3 to be generated by selectively changing the heating time slot from nighttime to daytime for water heaters 3, excluding those water heaters 3 with a low probability of additional heating occurring. Therefore, for each water heater 3, overlapping of the heating time slot based on the operation schedule when additional heating is required can be prevented, thereby preventing hot water shortages for each water heater 3.

[0069] In recent years, with the spread of solar-powered power generation facilities 5, there has been an increasing demand for water heaters 3 to heat water during the daytime so that surplus electricity during the daytime can be utilized for the water heater's heating operation. In this case, it is necessary to prevent the occurrence of so-called hot water shortages that occur when the water heater 3's operation schedule is set to heat water during the daytime. In contrast, the hot water supply system according to this embodiment uses multiple types of feature quantities for the water heater 3 to predict in advance which water heaters 3 are likely to experience hot water shortages and impair user convenience when a schedule for heating water during the daytime is applied, and prevents the water heater 3 from heating water during the daytime. This prevents the occurrence of hot water shortages in the water heater 3. Furthermore, there is no need for a maintenance technician for the water heater 3, who is familiar with the operating characteristics, tank capacity, and empirical rules regarding hot water shortages in each time period of the water heater 3, to optimize the water heater 3's operation schedule based on those empirical rules. This reduces the burden on users in setting the water heater 3's operation schedule.

[0070] Furthermore, model generation unit 120 according to this embodiment generates the aforementioned additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model information for each water heater 3 based on the occurrence times of past additional boiling operations, multiple feature amounts calculated from past water heater information, and power generation amount level information. Model generation unit 120 then uses the generated additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model information to update the additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model information stored in model storage unit 138. This allows the additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model information stored in model storage unit 138 to be optimized as needed, thereby improving the accuracy of the determination by daytime boiling possibility determination unit 118. This reduces the probability of additional boiling occurring by water heater 3.

[0071] Furthermore, the daytime heating possibility determination unit 118 according to this embodiment determines whether daytime heating is possible based on the power generation level of the power generation facility 5 estimated by the power generation level estimation unit 126, together with the multiple feature amounts. As a result, the daytime heating possibility determination unit 118 determines whether daytime heating is possible taking into account weather conditions, thereby improving the accuracy of the determination and reducing the probability of additional heating by the water heater 3.

[0072] (Embodiment 2) The hot water supply system of this embodiment differs from embodiment 1 in that it generates operation schedules for hot water heaters 3 installed in multiple homes that do not have power generation equipment 5 that uses natural energy as described in embodiment 1.

[0073] As shown in Fig. 16, for example, the hot water supply system according to this embodiment includes a hot water supply unit 3 installed in each of a plurality of residences H[0], H[1], ..., H[i], ... (i is an integer equal to or greater than 0), and electricity generated by a power generation facility 2005 installed in one location is supplied to the hot water supply unit 3 installed in each of the plurality of residences H[i] by a PV converter 2004. Note that in Fig. 16, components similar to those in embodiment 1 are assigned the same reference numerals as in Fig. 1.

[0074] Administrator server 2008 has the same functions as administrator server 8 described in embodiment 1, and upon receiving schedule notification information transmitted from cloud server 1, extracts the schedule information and water heater identification information contained in the received schedule notification information, associates them with each other, and stores them in a schedule storage unit. Administrator server 2008 also receives schedule request information transmitted from terminal device 7, generates the schedule list notification information described above in response to the received schedule request information, transmits the generated schedule list notification information to terminal device 7, and then, upon receiving operation schedule permission notification information from terminal device 7 indicating permission to operate water heater 3 in accordance with the operation schedule, transmits the obtained operation schedule permission notification information to cloud server 2001.

[0075] Cloud server 2001 has the same hardware configuration as cloud server 1 described in embodiment 1. Therefore, the hardware configuration of cloud server 2001 will be described using the reference numerals in FIG. 2 as appropriate. In cloud server 2001, CPU 101 reads a program stored in auxiliary storage unit 103 into main storage unit 102 and executes it, thereby functioning as water heater information acquisition unit 111, daytime electricity utilization rate calculation unit 114, daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit 115, tank utilization rate calculation unit 116, standard deviation calculation unit 117, daytime boiling availability determination unit 2118, additional boiling occurrence notification acquisition unit 119, model generation unit 2120, schedule generation unit 122, schedule notification unit 2123, and weather information acquisition unit 124, as shown in FIG. 17. In FIG. 17, components similar to those in embodiment 1 are denoted by the same reference numerals as those in FIG. 3. In addition, the auxiliary memory unit 103 has a remaining hot water amount memory unit 131, a supplied hot water amount memory unit 132, a water heater power consumption memory unit 133, a feature memory unit 134, a weather information memory unit 2135, a boiling operation history memory unit 137, a model memory unit 2138, a daytime boiling availability information memory unit 139, and a schedule memory unit 141.

[0076] The weather information storage unit 2135 stores weather forecast information indicating future predicted weather conditions in association with date and time information and water heater identification information. Here, the date and time information is set to be the same as the date and time indicating the weather information acquisition time described in embodiment 1, for example. The weather information storage unit 2135 then stores weather forecast information indicating the weather conditions predicted for the period from the future weather information acquisition time to the next weather information acquisition time in association with the date and time information indicating the next weather information acquisition time.

[0077] The model memory unit 2138 stores, for each of the multiple water heaters 3, additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model information indicating an additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model that calculates the probability of an additional boiling operation occurring during the second target period, from multiple feature amounts calculated based on various water heater information during the first target period and weather forecast information for the second target period from the schedule generation time to a point that is a second reference time after the schedule generation time.

[0078] The daytime heating possibility determination unit 2118 determines whether the heating time slot for each of the plurality of water heaters 3 during the second target period is changeable based on the probability of additional heating estimated from multiple feature amounts calculated based on the water heater information for the first target period and the weather forecast information for the second target period. Specifically, the daytime heating possibility determination unit 2118 uses the multiple feature amounts calculated based on the water heater information for the first target period and the weather conditions indicated by the weather forecast information for the second target period to determine the probability of additional heating using the additional heating occurrence probability estimation model, and determines whether the heating time slot is changeable based on whether the determined probability of additional heating is equal to or greater than a predetermined reference occurrence probability. The daytime heating possibility determination unit 2118 then generates daytime heating possibility flag information indicating the determination result for each of the plurality of water heaters 3 and stores the flag in the daytime heating possibility information storage unit 139 in association with the water heater identification information.

[0079] The model generation unit 2120 uses the additional boiling occurrence flag information and date and time information stored in the boiling operation history memory unit 137, which indicate the time when past boiling operations occurred, the past feature information stored in the feature memory unit 134, and the past weather conditions indicated by the weather performance information stored in the weather information memory unit 135, to determine new weight coefficients for the neural network that constitutes the additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model using a method that utilizes the error propagation method described in embodiment 1, and updates the weight coefficient information stored in the model memory unit 2138 with weight coefficient information indicating the determined weight coefficients.

[0080] Schedule notification unit 2123 generates schedule notification information including the schedule information stored in schedule storage unit 141 and the corresponding water heater identification information, and first transmits the schedule notification information only to administrator server 2008. After that, when schedule notification unit 2123 acquires the above-mentioned operation schedule permission notification information transmitted from administrator server 2008, it transmits the schedule notification information to water heater 3 in response to the information.

[0081] Next, the operation of the hot water supply system according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figures 18 and 19. In Figures 18 and 19, the same processes as those in embodiment 1 are denoted by the same reference numerals as those in Figures 10 to 12. First, as shown in Figure 18, once a series of processes from steps S1 to S3 are executed, a series of processes from step S7 onwards are executed without executing the processes from steps S4 to S6 described in embodiment 1.

[0082] 19, when the schedule generation time described in the first embodiment arrives, cloud server 2001 calculates the above-mentioned multiple feature amounts and stores feature amount information indicating the calculated multiple feature amounts in feature amount storage unit 134 (step S17). Next, cloud server 2001 determines whether or not to change the boiling time slot for each of the multiple water heaters 3 during the second target period, based on the probability of additional boiling occurring estimated from the multiple feature amounts calculated based on the water heater information for the first target period and the weather forecast information for the second target period stored in weather information storage unit 135. Then, cloud server 2001 generates daytime boiling availability flag information indicating the determination result for each of the multiple water heaters 3, and stores this in daytime boiling availability information storage unit 139 in association with the water heater identification information (step S2001).

[0083] Thereafter, cloud server 2001 references the daytime heating availability flag information for each water heater 3 stored in daytime heating availability information storage unit 139, generates an operation schedule for each water heater 3, and stores the schedule information indicating the generated operation schedule in schedule storage unit 141 in association with the water heater identification information (step S20). Next, cloud server 2001 generates schedule notification information including a combination of the schedule information stored in schedule storage unit 141 and the corresponding water heater identification information (step S21), and the generated schedule notification information is transmitted from cloud server 2001 to administrator server 2008 (step S2002). Meanwhile, upon acquiring the schedule notification information, administrator server 2008 extracts the schedule information included in the acquired schedule notification information and stores it in the schedule storage unit (step S2003).

[0084] Next, assume that a user belonging to the aggregator performs an operation for permitting the operation schedule indicated by the schedule information generated for each water heater 3 on terminal device 7. In this case, terminal device 7 generates the above-mentioned operation schedule permission notification information in response to this (step S2004), and the generated operation schedule permission notification information is transmitted from terminal device 7 to administrator server 2008 (step S2005). Meanwhile, when administrator server 2008 acquires the operation schedule permission notification information transmitted from terminal device 7, the operation schedule permission notification information is transmitted from administrator server 2008 to cloud server 2001 (step S2006). Meanwhile, when cloud server 2001 acquires the operation schedule permission notification information transmitted from administrator server 2008, the above-mentioned schedule notification information is transmitted from cloud server 2001 to each water heater 3 in response (step S2007). Meanwhile, when the water heater 3 acquires the schedule notification information, it extracts the schedule information included in the acquired schedule notification information and stores it in a schedule storage unit (step S2008). Next, the water heater 3 starts operating in accordance with the operation schedule indicated by the schedule information stored in the schedule storage unit (step S2009).

[0085] Next, the water heater control process executed by cloud server 2001 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 20. Note that in Fig. 20, the same processes as those in embodiment 1 are denoted by the same reference numerals as those in Figs. 13 and 14. First, as shown in Fig. 13, after the processes of steps S101 and S102 are executed, the processes of step S105 and thereafter are executed without executing the processes of steps S103 and S104 described in embodiment 1. Then, when the processes up to step S112 are executed, daytime boiling availability determination unit 2118 determines whether or not to change the boiling time slot for each of the plurality of water heaters 3 during the second target period, based on the plurality of feature amounts calculated based on the water heater information for the first target period and the probability of additional boiling occurring estimated from the weather conditions for the second target period. Then, the daytime boiling possibility determination unit 2118 generates daytime boiling possibility flag information indicating the determination result for each of the multiple water heaters 3, and stores it in the daytime boiling possibility information storage unit 139 in association with the water heater identification information (step S2101).

[0086] Next, the schedule generation unit 122 generates an operation schedule for each water heater 3 by referencing the daytime water heater permission flag information for each water heater 3 stored in the daytime water heater permission information storage unit 139. Then, the schedule generation unit 122 stores schedule information indicating the operation schedule generated for each water heater 3 in the schedule storage unit 141 in association with the water heater identification information (step S115). Next, the schedule notification unit 2123 generates schedule notification information including the schedule information stored in the schedule storage unit 141 and the corresponding water heater identification information, and transmits the schedule notification information to the administrator server 2008 (step S2102). Next, the schedule notification unit 2123 determines whether or not the operation schedule permission notification information transmitted from the administrator server 2008 has been acquired (step S2103). Here, if the schedule notification unit 2123 determines that the operation schedule permission notification information transmitted from the administrator server 2008 has not been acquired (step S2103: No), the process of step S117 is executed. On the other hand, if it is determined that operation schedule permission notification information has been acquired (step S2103: Yes), the schedule notification unit 2123 transmits the generated schedule notification information to the water heater 3 (step S2104).

[0087] Next, model generation unit 2120 determines whether the time for the model update has arrived (step S117), and if it determines that the time for the model update has arrived (step S117: Yes), executes model update processing (step S2105). Here, model generation unit 2120 determines new weighting coefficients of the neural network constituting the additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model that calculates the probability of an additional boiling occurrence, based on the feature values ​​at the date and time when the additional boiling occurred stored in feature value storage unit 134 and the weather conditions indicated by the weather forecast information stored in weather information storage unit 135. Then, model generation unit 2120 updates the weighting coefficient information stored in model storage unit 138 with weighting coefficient information indicating the determined weighting coefficients.

[0088] As described above, according to the hot water supply system of this embodiment, the daytime boiling possibility determination unit 2118 determines whether or not to change the boiling time slot from nighttime to daytime during the second target period, for each hot water heater 3, based on the probability of additional boiling estimated from weather conditions and multiple feature amounts calculated based on the hot water heater information for the first target period. This makes it possible to generate appropriate schedule information for the hot water heater 3 installed in the house H[i] that does not have the power generation facility 5 that uses natural energy, thereby preventing hot water shortages for each of the hot water heaters 3.

[0089] Although the embodiments of the present disclosure have been described above, the present disclosure is not limited to the above-described embodiments. For example, if a hot water supply system includes an operating device having a display for operating the water heater 3, the display of the operating device may display a water heating time slot maintenance notification image that notifies a user of the operating device when the water heating time slot has not been changed. In this case, the cloud server 1 may include a water heating time slot change status notification unit that generates water heating time slot maintenance notification information for at least one water heater operated by the operating device when the water heating time slot has not been changed and transmits the information to the operating device. Then, upon receiving the water heating time slot maintenance notification information, the operating device may generate a water heating time slot maintenance notification image on the display that notifies a user of the operating device that the water heating time slot has not been changed and display the image on the display.

[0090] The above-mentioned boiling maintenance notification image may also include a message image that displays a message to the user about how to use the water heater 3 to cause a change in the boiling time period. For example, as in the operation device 35 shown in Fig. 21 , a message image M1 may be displayed on the display unit 354.

[0091] According to this configuration, if a user of the water heater 3 is expecting the water heater 3 to heat water during the daytime, and the water heater 3 is unable to heat water during the daytime, the user can understand the reason, which gives the user a sense of security, i.e., increases the user's trust in the hot water supply system. Also, by encouraging users to change their behavior when using the water heater 3, the number of water heaters 3 that can change their heating time to the daytime can be increased, thereby promoting the use of surplus daytime electricity.

[0092] In an embodiment, a terminal device 7 owned by a user belonging to an aggregator may form a hot water shortage risk notification image notifying the user of the possibility of a hot water shortage occurring in each of the multiple hot water heaters 3 managed by the aggregator, and display the image on the display unit 704. In this case, the cloud server 1 may be configured to calculate a hot water shortage index indicating the possibility of a hot water shortage based on the aforementioned additional boiling probability, and to include a hot water shortage index notification unit that transmits hot water shortage index information indicating the calculated hot water shortage index to the terminal device 7. Then, upon acquiring the hot water shortage index information, the terminal device 7 may form a hot water shortage risk notification image notifying the user of the terminal device 7 of the possibility of a hot water shortage occurring in each of the multiple hot water heaters 3 based on the acquired hot water shortage index information, and display the image on the display unit 704. Here, as shown in FIG. 22, for example, the hot water shortage risk notification image GA1 includes a message field B1 indicating the risk of a hot water shortage occurring in each of the hot water heaters 3 and a message field B2 indicating whether or not to change the boiling time. Here, the hot water shortage occurrence index notification unit may calculate a hot water shortage occurrence index such that if the probability of the aforementioned additional boiling occurring is 0.5 or higher, the hot water shortage occurrence index will be a value corresponding to a "high risk of hot water shortage," and if the probability of the aforementioned additional boiling occurring is less than 0.5, the hot water shortage occurrence index will be a value corresponding to a "low risk of hot water shortage."

[0093] According to this configuration, for example, a user belonging to an aggregator can adjust the content of the service provided to the user of the water heater 3 according to the risk of each water heater 3 running out of hot water.

[0094] In the configuration described in the second embodiment using Fig. 17 , when the administrator server 3008 shown in Fig. 23 acquires power generation amount notification information including power generation amount information indicating the amount of power generated by the power generation facility 2005 and date and time information corresponding to the power generation amount information, the administrator server 3008 may extract the power generation amount information and the date and time information included in the acquired power generation amount notification information. Note that in Fig. 21 , the same components as those in the first embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals as in Fig. 3. Then, the administrator server 3008 may calculate a power generation amount level by classifying the power generation amounts indicated by the extracted power generation amount information into a plurality of levels set in advance based on their magnitudes, and generate power generation amount level notification information including power generation amount level information indicating the calculated power generation amount level and the extracted date and time information, and transmit the generated power generation amount level notification information to the cloud server 3001.

[0095] In this case, the cloud server 3001 may include a power generation level acquisition unit 3125 that, upon acquiring power generation level notification information transmitted from the administrator server 3008, associates the power generation level information included in the acquired power generation level notification information with date and time information and stores them in the power generation level storage unit 136. The power generation level estimation unit 126 may then refer to the actual weather information stored in the weather information storage unit 135 and the power generation level information stored in the power generation level storage unit to identify a correlation between the power generation level and weather conditions, and estimate the power generation level of the power generation facility 2005 for the second target period from the identified correlation and the weather conditions indicated by the weather forecast information for the second target period stored in the weather information storage unit 135. The power generation level estimation unit 126 may then notify the daytime boiling availability determination unit 118 of the power generation level information indicating the estimated power generation level. In this case, the daytime boiling possibility determination unit 118 uses an additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model to determine the occurrence probability of additional boiling operation for each of the multiple water heaters from multiple feature amounts calculated based on water heater information for the first target period, the weather conditions indicated by weather forecast information for the second target period, and the power generation level for the second target period, and determines whether the boiling time period can be changed depending on whether the determined probability of additional boiling occurrence is equal to or greater than a predetermined standard occurrence probability.

[0096] According to this configuration, the occurrence probability of the additional boiling operation can be calculated with high accuracy based on the power generation level of the power generation facility 2005. Therefore, appropriate schedule information for each water heater 3 can be generated.

[0097] Furthermore, the various functions of the cloud server 1 according to the present disclosure may be realized by software, firmware, or a combination of software and firmware. In this case, the software or firmware may be written as a program, and the program may be stored and distributed on a computer-readable recording medium such as a flexible disk, a CD-ROM (Compact Disc Read Only Memory), a DVD (Digital Versatile Disc), or an MO (Magneto-Optical Disc). The program may then be read and installed on a computer to configure a computer capable of realizing each of the above-described functions. Furthermore, if each function is realized by sharing the work between an operating system (OS) and an application, or by cooperation between the OS and an application, only the parts other than the OS may be stored on the recording medium.

[0098] Furthermore, each program can be superimposed on a carrier wave and distributed over a network. For example, the program can be posted on a bulletin board system (BBS) on the network and distributed over the network. These programs can then be started and run under the control of the OS in the same way as other application programs, thereby enabling the above-mentioned processing to be performed.

[0099] Various aspects of the present disclosure are summarized below as appendices.

[0100] (Appendix 1) a water heater information acquisition unit that acquires water heater information for calculating at least one feature amount that indicates a feature of the usage status of boiled water for each of the plurality of water heaters; a boiling time period changeability determination unit that determines whether or not the boiling time period can be changed from the first time point to a third time point that is the reference time after the first time point, based on the probability of additional boiling occurring estimated from the at least one feature calculated based on the water heater information from a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point and the first time point, for each of the plurality of water heaters; a schedule generating unit that generates schedule information indicating an operation schedule of each of the plurality of water heaters based on whether or not the heating time period is changeable, which is determined for each of the plurality of water heaters; Water heater control device. (Appendix 2) The water heater information includes remaining hot water amount information indicating the amount of hot water remaining in a hot water storage tank of the water heater, and water heater power consumption amount information indicating the amount of power consumed by the water heater, a first designated time period hot water utilization rate calculation unit that calculates, as the feature, a hot water utilization rate in a first designated time period that is set in advance between the second time point and the first time point based on the remaining hot water amount information included in the hot water heater information; a first designated time period power utilization rate calculation unit that calculates, as the feature, a ratio of the amount of power consumed by the water heater in the first designated time period to the amount of power consumed by the water heater from the second time point to the first time point based on the water heater power consumption information included in the water heater information; a tank utilization rate calculation unit that calculates, as the characteristic quantity, a tank utilization rate, which is the ratio of the amount of hot water used in a second designated time period set in advance between the second time point and the first time point to the maximum amount of hot water that can be supplied when the hot water storage tank is full, based on the remaining hot water amount information included in the hot water heater information; and and a standard deviation calculation unit that calculates, as the feature amount, a standard deviation of the amount of hot water used per day from the second time point to the first time point based on the remaining hot water amount information included in the hot water heater information, the boiling time period changeability determination unit determines whether the boiling time period can be changed based on the feature amounts calculated by the first designated time period hot water utilization rate calculation unit, the first designated time period power utilization rate calculation unit, the tank utilization rate calculation unit, and the standard deviation calculation unit, respectively. 10. The water heater control device according to claim 1. (Appendix 3) The heating time period changeability determination unit uses an additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model to determine the probability of an additional boiling operation occurring between the first time point and a third time point that is the reference time after the first time point from the at least one feature amount calculated based on the water heater information from a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point to the first time point, and determines whether the heating time period can be changed depending on whether the determined probability of additional boiling operation is equal to or greater than a reference occurrence probability that is set in advance. 3. The water heater control device according to claim 1 or 2. (Appendix 4) Further provided is a model generation unit that generates additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model information indicating the additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model for each of the plurality of water heaters based on the occurrence time of the additional boiling operation in the past and the at least one feature amount calculated from the past water heater information. 4. The water heater control device according to claim 3. (Appendix 5) Multiple water heaters, a water heater information acquisition unit that acquires water heater information for calculating at least one feature amount that indicates a feature of the usage status of boiled water for each of the plurality of water heaters; a boiling time period changeability determination unit that determines whether or not the boiling time period can be changed from the first time point to a third time point that is the reference time after the first time point, based on the probability of additional boiling occurring estimated from the at least one feature calculated based on the water heater information from a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point and the first time point, for each of the plurality of water heaters; a schedule generating unit that generates schedule information indicating an operation schedule of each of the plurality of water heaters based on whether or not the heating time period is changeable, which is determined for each of the plurality of water heaters; Hot water system. (Appendix 6) The heating time period changeability determination unit uses an additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model to determine the probability of an additional boiling operation occurring between the first time point and a third time point that is the reference time after the first time point from the at least one feature amount calculated based on the water heater information from a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point to the first time point, and determines whether the heating time period can be changed depending on whether the determined probability of additional boiling operation is equal to or greater than a reference occurrence probability that is set in advance. 10. The hot water system of claim 5. (Appendix 7) an operating device having a display unit for operating at least one of the plurality of water heaters; and a water heating time zone change status notification unit that, when the water heating time zone has not been changed for at least one water heater operated by the operating device, generates water heating time zone maintenance notification information notifying that the water heating time zone has not been changed and transmits the information to the operating device; When the operation device acquires the boiling time period maintenance notification information, the operation device forms a boiling time period maintenance notification image in response to the acquisition, notifying the user of the operation device that the boiling time period has not been changed, and displays the image on the display unit. 10. A hot water system according to claim 5 or 6. (Appendix 8) The water heating maintenance notification image includes a message image that displays a message to the user regarding a method of using the water heater to cause a change in the water heating time period. 7. The hot water system of claim 7. (Appendix 9) A power generation facility that generates electricity using natural energy; a power generation level estimation unit that estimates a power generation level by the power generation facility between the first time point and the third time point based on weather conditions between the first time point and the third time point, the boiling time period changeability determination unit determines whether the boiling time period can be changed based on the estimated power generation amount level together with the at least one feature amount. 9. The hot water supply system according to any one of appendixes 5 to 8. (Appendix 10) a terminal device having a display unit; Further provided is a hot water shortage occurrence indicator notifying unit that calculates a hot water shortage occurrence indicator that indicates the possibility of hot water shortage based on the additional boiling occurrence probability, and transmits hot water shortage occurrence indicator information that indicates the calculated hot water shortage occurrence indicator to the terminal device; When the terminal device acquires the hot water shortage occurrence index information, the terminal device generates a hot water shortage risk notification image that notifies the user of the terminal device of the possibility of hot water shortage in each of the plurality of hot water heaters based on the acquired hot water shortage occurrence index information, and displays the image on the display unit. 10. The hot water supply system according to any one of appendixes 5 to 9. (Appendix 11) A step of acquiring water heater information for calculating at least one feature amount indicating a feature of the usage status of boiled water for each of the plurality of water heaters; A step of determining whether or not to change the boiling time period from the first time point to a third time point that is the reference time after the first time point, based on the probability of additional boiling occurring estimated from the at least one feature calculated based on the water heater information from a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point and the first time point, for each of the plurality of water heaters; and generating schedule information indicating an operation schedule of each of the plurality of water heaters based on whether or not the water heating time period can be changed, which is determined for each of the plurality of water heaters. Water heater control method. (Appendix 12) Computer, a water heater information acquisition unit that acquires water heater information for calculating at least one feature amount that indicates a feature of the usage status of boiled water for each of the plurality of water heaters; a boiling time period changeability determination unit that determines whether or not a boiling time period can be changed between a first time point and a third time point that is the reference time later than the first time point, based on a probability of occurrence of additional boiling estimated from at least one feature calculated based on the water heater information between a second time point that is a reference time period before the first time point and the first time point, for each of the plurality of water heaters; a schedule generation unit that generates schedule information indicating an operation schedule of each of the plurality of water heaters based on whether or not the heating time period can be changed, which is determined for each of the plurality of water heaters; A program to function as a [Industrial Applicability]

[0101] The present disclosure is suitable for a hot water supply system that controls hot water heaters installed in each dwelling in an apartment building that has a bulk power receiving contract with an electric power company. [Explanation of symbols]

[0102] 1 Cloud server, 3 Water heater, 4 Power conditioner, 5 Power generation equipment, 7 Terminal device, 8 Administrator server, 9 Weather server, 31 Controller, 32 Water heater power measurement unit, 33 Remaining hot water amount measurement unit, 34 Hot water supply amount measurement unit, 35 Operation device, 39 Communication adapter, 61 BBR, 101,701 CPU, 102,702 Main memory unit, 103,703 Auxiliary memory unit, 106,706 Wide area communication unit, 108 Timekeeping unit, 109,709 Bus, 111 Water heater information acquisition unit, 114 Daytime power utilization rate calculation unit, 115 Daytime hot water utilization rate calculation unit, 116 Tank utilization rate calculation unit, 117 Standard deviation calculation unit, 118 Daytime heating possibility determination unit, 119 Additional heating occurrence notification acquisition unit, 120 Model generation unit, 122 Schedule generation unit, 123 schedule notification unit, 124 weather information acquisition unit, 125 power generation amount acquisition unit, 126 power generation amount level estimation unit, 131 remaining hot water amount memory unit, 132 hot water supply amount memory unit, 133 water heater power consumption amount memory unit, 135 weather information memory unit, 136 power generation amount level memory unit, 137 heating operation history memory unit, 138 model memory unit, 141 schedule memory unit, 354, 704 display unit, 705 input unit, B1, B2 message field, GA1 hot water shortage risk notification image, H[0], H[1], H[i] house, M1 message image, NW1 wide area network, NW2 local network

Claims

1. a water heater information acquisition unit that acquires water heater information for calculating at least one feature amount that indicates a feature of the usage status of boiled water for each of the plurality of water heaters; a boiling time period changeability determination unit that determines whether or not the boiling time period can be changed between a first time point and a third time point that is the reference time later than the first time point, based on the probability of additional boiling occurring estimated from at least one feature calculated based on the water heater information between a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point and the first time point, for each of the plurality of water heaters; a schedule generating unit that generates schedule information indicating an operation schedule of each of the plurality of water heaters based on whether or not the heating time period is changeable, which is determined for each of the plurality of water heaters; Water heater control device.

2. The water heater information includes remaining hot water amount information indicating the amount of hot water remaining in a hot water storage tank of the water heater, and water heater power consumption amount information indicating the amount of power consumed by the water heater, a first designated time period hot water utilization rate calculation unit that calculates, as the feature, a hot water utilization rate in a first designated time period set in advance between the second time point and the first time point based on the remaining hot water amount information included in the hot water heater information; a first designated time period power utilization rate calculation unit that calculates, as the feature, a ratio of the amount of power consumed by the water heater in the first designated time period to the amount of power consumed by the water heater between the second time point and the first time point, based on the water heater power consumption information included in the water heater information; a tank utilization rate calculation unit that calculates, as the characteristic quantity, a tank utilization rate, which is the ratio of the amount of hot water used in a second designated time period set in advance between the second time point and the first time point to the maximum amount of hot water that can be supplied when the hot water storage tank is full, based on the remaining hot water amount information included in the hot water heater information; and and a standard deviation calculation unit that calculates, as the feature amount, a standard deviation of the amount of hot water used per day from the second time point to the first time point based on the remaining hot water amount information included in the hot water heater information. the boiling time period changeability determination unit determines whether the boiling time period can be changed based on the feature amounts calculated by the first designated time period hot water utilization rate calculation unit, the first designated time period power utilization rate calculation unit, the tank utilization rate calculation unit, and the standard deviation calculation unit, respectively. The water heater control device according to claim 1 .

3. The boiling time period changeability determination unit uses an additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model to determine the probability of an additional boiling operation occurring between the first time point and a third time point that is the reference time after the first time point from at least one feature calculated based on the water heater information from a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point to the first time point for each of the plurality of water heaters, and determines whether the boiling time period can be changed depending on whether the determined probability of additional boiling occurrence is equal to or greater than a reference occurrence probability that is set in advance. The water heater control device according to claim 1 or 2.

4. and a model generation unit that generates additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model information indicating the additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model for each of the plurality of water heaters based on the occurrence time of the additional boiling operation in the past and the at least one feature amount calculated from the past water heater information. The water heater control device according to claim 3.

5. Multiple water heaters, a water heater information acquisition unit that acquires water heater information for calculating at least one feature amount that indicates a feature of a usage status of boiled water for each of the plurality of water heaters; a boiling time period changeability determination unit that determines whether or not the boiling time period can be changed between a first time point and a third time point that is the reference time later than the first time point, based on the probability of additional boiling occurring estimated from at least one feature calculated based on the water heater information between a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point and the first time point, for each of the plurality of water heaters; a schedule generating unit that generates schedule information indicating an operation schedule of each of the plurality of water heaters based on whether or not the heating time period is changeable, which is determined for each of the plurality of water heaters; Hot water system.

6. The boiling time period changeability determination unit uses an additional boiling occurrence probability estimation model to determine the probability of an additional boiling operation occurring between the first time point and a third time point that is the reference time after the first time point from at least one feature calculated based on the water heater information from a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point to the first time point for each of the plurality of water heaters, and determines whether the boiling time period can be changed depending on whether the determined probability of additional boiling occurrence is equal to or greater than a reference occurrence probability that is set in advance. The hot water supply system according to claim 5 .

7. an operating device having a display unit for operating at least one of the plurality of water heaters; and a water heating time zone change status notification unit that, when the water heating time zone has not been changed for at least one water heater operated by the operating device, generates water heating time zone maintenance notification information notifying that the water heating time zone has not been changed and transmits the information to the operating device; When the operation device acquires the boiling time period maintenance notification information, the operation device forms a boiling time period maintenance notification image in response to the acquisition, notifying the user of the operation device that the boiling time period has not been changed, and displays the image on the display unit. The hot water supply system according to claim 5 or 6.

8. The water heating maintenance notification image includes a message image that displays a message to the user regarding a method of using the water heater to cause a change in the water heating time period. The hot water supply system according to claim 7.

9. A power generation facility that generates electricity using natural energy; a power generation level estimation unit that estimates a power generation level by the power generation facility between the first time point and the third time point based on weather conditions between the first time point and the third time point, the boiling time period changeability determination unit determines whether the boiling time period is changeable based on the estimated power generation amount level together with the at least one feature amount. The hot water supply system according to claim 5 or 6.

10. a terminal device having a display unit; Further provided is a hot water shortage occurrence indicator notification unit that calculates a hot water shortage occurrence indicator that indicates the possibility of hot water shortage based on the additional boiling occurrence probability, and transmits hot water shortage occurrence indicator information that indicates the calculated hot water shortage occurrence indicator to the terminal device; When the terminal device acquires the hot water shortage occurrence index information, the terminal device generates a hot water shortage risk notification image that notifies the user of the terminal device of the possibility of hot water shortage in each of the plurality of hot water heaters based on the acquired hot water shortage occurrence index information, and displays the image on the display unit. The hot water supply system according to claim 5 or 6.

11. acquiring water heater information for calculating at least one feature value indicating a feature of a usage status of boiled water for each of the plurality of water heaters; For each of the plurality of water heaters, a step of determining whether or not to change the boiling time period from the first time point to a third time point that is the reference time after the first time point, based on the probability of additional boiling occurring estimated from at least one feature calculated based on the water heater information from a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point to the first time point; generating schedule information indicating an operation schedule of each of the plurality of water heaters based on whether or not the water heating time period can be changed, determined for each of the plurality of water heaters; Water heater control method.

12. Computer, a water heater information acquisition unit that acquires water heater information for calculating at least one feature amount that indicates a feature of the usage status of boiled water for each of the plurality of water heaters; a boiling time period changeability determination unit that determines whether or not a boiling time period can be changed between a first time point and a third time point that is the reference time later than the first time point, based on a probability of occurrence of additional boiling estimated from at least one feature calculated based on the water heater information between a second time point that is a reference time before the first time point and the first time point, for each of the plurality of water heaters; a schedule generation unit that generates schedule information indicating an operation schedule of each of the plurality of water heaters based on whether or not the heating time period can be changed, which is determined for each of the plurality of water heaters; A program to function as a

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