Device for determining planned procurement quantity and method for determining planned procurement quantity

Abstract

By accurately understanding the amount of electricity consumed by consumers, it is possible to reduce the amount of imbalance that occurs. [Solution] The planned procurement amount determination device includes a rate plan acquisition unit that acquires a rate plan set by a customer for each customer, in which the customer's electricity charges are determined based on a standard amount of electricity, a predicted amount of electricity range based on the size of the upper limit and the size of the lower limit, and the amount of electricity used by the customer; an actual amount of electricity acquisition unit that acquires the actual amount of electricity measured by the customer's electricity use for each customer; an electricity charge determination unit that determines the electricity charge at a high level when the degree of deviation between the actual amount of electricity and the predicted amount of electricity range is above a predetermined standard; an electricity charge output unit that outputs the result determined by the electricity charge determination unit; a planned procurement amount determination unit that determines the planned amount of electricity to be procured based on the predicted amount of electricity range of the rate plan selected by each customer; and a planned procurement amount output unit that outputs the planned procurement amount predicted by the planned procurement amount determination unit.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a planned procurement quantity determination device and a planned procurement quantity determination method.

Background Art

[0002] Retail electricity providers predict the amount of electricity to be used by all customers the next day and transmit the demand planned quantity to the Japan Wholesale Electricity Exchange (hereinafter sometimes referred to as JPEX) the previous day. Based on the demand planned quantity transmitted from the retail electricity provider R, JPEX adjusts the balance between the demand planned quantities of multiple retail electricity providers and the power generation planned quantities of multiple power generation providers.

[0003] However, it is difficult to accurately predict the amount of electricity actually used by customers, and there may be a difference (imbalance) between the actual amount of electricity used (demand actual quantity) and the demand planned quantity predicted by the retail electricity provider. FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining the imbalance that generally occurs.

[0004] When the demand planned quantity exceeds the demand actual quantity, that is, when the amount of electricity procured is excessive, a surplus imbalance occurs. When a surplus imbalance occurs, the retail electricity provider sells the amount of electricity corresponding to the surplus imbalance to other retail electricity providers at a price lower than the price paid for the purchase.

[0005] On the other hand, when the demand planned quantity is less than the demand actual quantity, that is, when the amount of electricity procured is insufficient, a shortage imbalance occurs. When a shortage imbalance occurs, the retail electricity provider purchases the amount of electricity corresponding to the shortage imbalance by paying a price higher than normal.

[0006] Therefore, when an imbalance occurs, the retail electricity provider suffers a loss of an amount corresponding to the amount of the imbalance, and there is a desire to reduce the imbalance that occurs. Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for avoiding an imbalance by causing a storage battery owned by a customer to charge and discharge when an imbalance occurs. [Prior art documents] [Patent Documents]

[0007] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2023-092709 [Overview of the Initiative] [Problems that the invention aims to solve]

[0008] However, the technology described in Patent Document 1 above relies on consumers cooperating to avoid imbalances when they occur, making it difficult to reduce the amount of imbalance itself.

[0009] Therefore, the present invention has been made in view of the above points, and aims to provide a technology that can accurately grasp the amount of electricity used by consumers and reduce the amount of imbalance that occurs. [Means for solving the problem]

[0010] One aspect of the present invention is a rate plan in which the electricity charge for a consumer is determined based on a standard amount of energy, a predicted energy range based on the magnitude of the upper limit from the standard amount of energy and the magnitude of the lower limit from the standard amount of energy, and the amount of energy used by the consumer, comprising: a rate plan acquisition unit that acquires the rate plan set by the consumer for each consumer; a measured energy acquisition unit that acquires the measured energy amount, which is the amount of energy used by the consumer, for each consumer; an electricity charge determination unit that determines the electricity charge to be high when the degree of deviation between the measured energy amount and the predicted energy range is greater than or equal to a predetermined standard; an electricity charge output unit that outputs the result determined by the electricity charge determination unit; a planned procurement amount determination unit that determines the planned amount of electricity to be procured based on the predicted energy range of the rate plan selected by each consumer; and a planned procurement amount output unit that outputs the planned procurement amount determined by the planned procurement amount determination unit.

[0011] Furthermore, in one aspect of the present invention, the electricity rate plan is such that the electricity rate is high when the range between the upper and lower limits of the predicted electricity consumption range is greater than a predetermined range, and the electricity rate is low when the range between the upper and lower limits of the predicted electricity consumption range is less than a predetermined range.

[0012] Furthermore, in one embodiment of the present invention, the planned procurement amount determination unit determines the planned procurement amount by setting different upper and lower limits for the predicted power consumption range of the customer based on the degree of deviation of the customer.

[0013] Furthermore, in one embodiment of the present invention, the planned procurement amount determination device further includes a deviation degree output unit that outputs information regarding the deviation degree of each customer to a terminal device operated by a retail electricity business operator.

[0014] Furthermore, in one aspect of the present invention, there is a pricing plan in which the electricity charges for a consumer are determined based on a standard amount of electricity, a predicted electricity range based on the magnitude of the upper limit from the standard amount of electricity and the magnitude of the lower limit from the standard amount of electricity, and the amount of electricity used by the consumer, and the pricing plan set by the consumer is obtained for each consumer, the measured amount of electricity used by the consumer is obtained for each consumer, the electricity charges are determined to be higher when the degree of deviation between the measured amount of electricity and the predicted electricity range is greater than or equal to a predetermined standard, the determined result is output, the planned amount of electricity to be procured is determined based on the predicted electricity range of the pricing plan selected by each consumer, and the determined planned amount of electricity to be procured is output. [Effects of the Invention]

[0015] According to the present invention, it is possible to accurately grasp the amount of electricity used by consumers and reduce the amount of imbalance that occurs. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0016] [Figure 1]It is a schematic diagram showing an example of the mode of the system according to the embodiment. [Figure 2] It is a block diagram for explaining an example of the functional configuration of the planned procurement quantity determination device according to the embodiment. [Figure 3] It is a diagram showing a first display screen which is an example of the setting screen of the tariff plan displayed on the consumer terminal. [Figure 4] It is a diagram for explaining an example in which the accumulated points according to the embodiment are calculated. [Figure 5] It is a diagram showing a second display screen which is an example of the notification screen of the electricity charge displayed on the consumer terminal. [Figure 6] It is a flowchart for explaining an example of the process flow of the planned procurement quantity determination device according to the embodiment. [Figure 7] It is a block diagram showing an example of the internal configuration of the planned procurement quantity determination device according to the embodiment. [Figure 8] It is a diagram for explaining the imbalance that generally occurs.

Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0017] [Embodiment] Regarding the planned procurement quantity determination device and the planned procurement quantity determination method according to the present embodiment, suitable embodiments will be listed and described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. In the description of the drawings, the same or similar parts are denoted by the same or similar reference numerals. Note that the present embodiment is not limited to these embodiments, and also includes those with various modifications or improvements. That is, the constituent elements described below include those that can be easily assumed by those skilled in the art and those that are substantially the same, and the constituent elements described below can be combined as appropriate. Also, in the present embodiment, various omissions, substitutions, or changes of the constituent elements may be made without departing from the gist of the present invention.

[0018] First, with reference to FIG. 1, the mode in which the planned procurement quantity determination device 20 according to the present embodiment is used will be described.

[0019] FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing an example of an aspect of the system 1 according to the embodiment. The system 1 includes a plurality of terminal devices 10 and a planned procurement quantity determination device 20. The customer terminal 10-1 and the business operator terminal 10-2 exemplify the plurality of terminal devices 10. In the following description, when the customer terminal 10-1 and the business operator terminal 10-2 are not distinguished from each other, they may simply be referred to as the terminal device 10.

[0020] The plurality of terminal devices 10 and the planned procurement quantity determination device 20 are connected via a network NW. The network NW is a predetermined communication network configured using a line. The network NW is, for example, the Internet.

[0021] The terminal device 10 is an information processing device such as a smartphone, a tablet, and a personal computer. The customer terminal 10-1 is operated by the customer C. The customer C may be, for example, a small-scale customer such as a general household, or a large-scale customer such as a factory. The customer C uses the power supplied from the retail electricity business operator R and pays an electricity bill as the consideration.

[0022] The business operator terminal 10-2 is operated by the retail electricity business operator R. The retail electricity business operator R supplies power to each customer C. In addition, the retail electricity business operator R predicts in advance the amount of power used by the customer C and transmits the demand plan quantity to JPEX.

[0023] Figure 2 is a block diagram illustrating an example of the functional configuration of a planned procurement quantity determination device 20 according to an embodiment. The planned procurement quantity determination device 20 comprises a first processing unit 21, a second processing unit 22, a third processing unit 23, a rate plan list DB 24, a rate plan aggregation DB 25, an incentive DB 26, and a procurement quantity DB 27. Each functional unit of the planned procurement quantity determination device 20 is implemented, for example, using a computer and software equipped with a central processing unit (CPU) and memory. These functional units may also be implemented using electronic circuits as needed. Furthermore, each functional unit does not necessarily have to be contained in a single device, and the planned procurement quantity determination device 20 may be configured from multiple devices. In addition, two or more of the rate plan list DB 24, rate plan aggregation DB 25, incentive DB 26, and procurement quantity DB 27 may be contained within a single storage unit rather than being separate and independent storage units. Furthermore, these DBs do not necessarily have to be contained within the planned procurement quantity determination device 20.

[0024] The first processing unit 21 includes a measured power acquisition unit 211, a weather information acquisition unit 212, a power consumption forecast unit 213, a rate plan candidate determination unit 214, a measured power output unit 215, a predicted power output unit 216, and a rate plan candidate output unit 217.

[0025] The measured power acquisition unit 211 acquires a value indicating the amount of electricity used by customer C from an electricity usage meter such as a smart meter. The measured power acquisition unit 211 acquires a value indicating the amount of electricity for, for example, every 30 minutes, every hour, or every day. The measured power acquisition unit 211 may also acquire information indicating the amount of electricity used by customer C in the past on a daily basis from a storage device (not shown). In the following description, the amount of electricity used by customer C in one day may be referred to as measured power MEE.

[0026] The weather information acquisition unit 212 acquires the weather forecast for the day on which the demand plan is to be predicted (hereinafter sometimes referred to as the target day) for the region to which electricity will be supplied, that is, the region to which customer C's address belongs. The weather information acquisition unit 212 may acquire weather forecast data from, for example, the Japan Meteorological Agency.

[0027] The power consumption forecasting unit 213 predicts the amount of electricity that customer C will use (consume) on the target day. Specifically, the power consumption forecasting unit 213 obtains one or more values ​​indicating customer C's past measured power consumption (MEE) from the measured power consumption acquisition unit 211. The power consumption forecasting unit 213 also obtains the weather forecast for the target day from the weather information acquisition unit 212. The power consumption forecasting unit 213 may predict the amount of electricity that customer C will use (consume) on the target day based on customer C's past measured power consumption (MEE) and the weather forecast for the target day. For example, if the target day falls within the summer period and is sunny, the power consumption forecasting unit 213 may predict that customer C's power consumption will increase.

[0028] Furthermore, the power consumption forecasting unit 213 may predict the amount of electricity that customer C will use on a given day by, for example, referring to the power consumption of households with similar attributes to customer C. Specifically, the power consumption forecasting unit 213 acquires information indicating the power consumption of households with similar attributes to customer C. These attributes include, for example, the size of the building in which the household lives, the family structure, and other factors that can serve as criteria for predicting power consumption. The power consumption forecasting unit 213 may acquire, for example, the power consumption of households with similar attributes to customer C over a predetermined period, or it may acquire the average power consumption of such households. The power consumption forecasting unit 213 may acquire information on one household or multiple households. The attributes used by the power consumption forecasting unit 213 to identify similar households and the information used as criteria for determining similarity are pre-stored in the rate plan aggregation DB 25 or a storage unit (not shown) based on operations by the retail electricity provider R or the designer of System 1. The power consumption prediction unit 213 predicts the power consumption of consumer C by referring to the power consumption of households with similar attributes to consumer C. This makes it possible to predict the power consumption of consumer C even when past measured power consumption MEE cannot be predicted due to reasons such as the first day of measurement.

[0029] The rate plan list DB24 stores candidate rate plan lists (CP). The rate plan list DB24 may also store information output from the business terminal 10-2 based on operations performed by the retail electricity business operator R. A candidate rate plan list (CP) is a list of candidate rate plans (which may also be called electricity rate tables) to be proposed to customer C. A rate plan proposed to customer C is, for example, a rate plan in which customer C sets a range of electricity usage (hereinafter referred to as the predicted energy usage range PEER) and benefits from using electricity as set. Customer C sets the predicted energy usage range PEER by setting a standard energy usage amount SEE, which is the base amount of electricity usage that customer C plans to use, an upper limit UW indicating the amount of energy that may exceed the standard energy usage amount SEE, and a lower limit LW indicating the amount of electricity that may fall below the standard energy usage amount SEE. In the following explanation, the value obtained by adding the upper limit UW to the standard energy usage amount SEE may be referred to as the predicted upper limit PUL, and the value obtained by subtracting the lower limit LW from the standard energy usage amount SEE may be referred to as the predicted lower limit PLL. Furthermore, the magnitude of the range between the predicted upper limit PUL and the predicted lower limit PLL is sometimes referred to as prediction accuracy. The predicted energy range PEER is, for example, a candidate combination of values ​​for the base energy amount SEE, the upper limit UW, and the lower limit LW. Each rate plan may be one in which the predicted energy range PEER, the amount of energy used, and the amount of electricity charges paid by customer C are associated. The amount of electricity charges may be the amount itself, or it may be a base amount and a range of variation from the base amount (for example, XX yen or XX%). Each rate plan may be defined for any period such as 30 minutes, 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, and 1 month.

[0030] The period for which electricity consumption is predicted by setting the predicted electricity consumption range PEER may be determined according to the actions of consumer C, or it may be predetermined, for example. Consumer C may predict the predicted electricity consumption range PEER for the period, or may predict the predicted electricity consumption range PEER for each of the periods in which the period is divided into multiple periods (hereinafter sometimes referred to as sub-periods). For example, consumer C may predict the predicted electricity consumption range PEER for one day, or may predict the predicted electricity consumption range PEER for each of the following periods within the day: "0:00 to 6:00", "6:00 to 12:00", "12:00 to 18:00", and "18:00 to 24:00". In the above, an example of setting sub-periods every 6 hours was shown, but the length of the sub-period may be set to any length, and the lengths of each sub-period may be different.

[0031] The rate plan candidate determination unit 214 obtains a value indicating the amount of electricity predicted by the power consumption forecasting unit 213. The rate plan candidate determination unit 214 may also obtain rate plan candidate CP from the rate plan list DB 24. Based on the predicted amount of electricity, the rate plan candidate determination unit 214 may determine a candidate rate plan from the rate plan candidate CP to propose to customer C.

[0032] The measured power output unit 215 outputs information showing the past measured power consumption (MEE) of customer C to customer terminal 10-1. The predicted power output unit 216 outputs a value showing the amount of electricity predicted by the power consumption prediction unit 213 to customer terminal 10-1. The rate plan candidate output unit 217 outputs the rate plan candidate determined by the rate plan candidate determination unit 214 to customer terminal 10-1.

[0033] Figure 3 shows a first display screen D1, which is an example of a rate plan setting screen displayed on the customer terminal 10-1. The first display screen D1 has a screen configuration consisting of a power consumption list display section D11, a predicted power consumption display section D12, an A plan display section D13, and a B plan display section D14.

[0034] The electricity usage list display unit D11 shows customer C's past measured electricity usage MEE and the standard electricity usage SEE for the target day. Customer C may predict the amount of electricity they will use on the target day by referring to past measured electricity usage MEE and the electricity usage of other households. Alternatively, by referring to past measured electricity usage MEE and standard electricity usage SEE, customer C may determine whether the value of standard electricity usage SEE is reasonable in relation to past measured electricity usage MEE.

[0035] The predicted energy consumption display unit D12 shows the reference energy consumption SEE predicted by the power consumption prediction unit 213. Note that the energy consumption list display unit D11 and the predicted energy consumption display unit D12 are not displayed separately and independently; the predicted energy consumption display unit D12 may be displayed within the energy consumption list display unit D11.

[0036] The A-Plan display unit D13 has a screen configuration consisting of a standard energy amount setting unit D131, a prediction accuracy setting unit D132, a 1kWh unit price display unit D133, and an estimated energy amount display unit D134. The A-Plan display unit D13 displays, for example, a rate plan that a customer C can benefit from by setting a predicted energy amount range PEER and actually using the energy as set.

[0037] The base energy setting unit D131 sets the base energy amount SEE based on the operation of customer C. Customer C may set the energy amount predicted by the power consumption prediction unit 213 as the base energy amount SEE, select the base energy amount SEE from among several predetermined energy amount candidates, or set any energy amount as the base energy amount SEE.

[0038] The prediction accuracy setting unit D132 sets the upper width UW and lower width LW (prediction accuracy) based on the operation of customer C. Customer C may select any of the predetermined candidates for upper width UW and lower width LW, or may set any upper width UW and lower width LW. Although Figure 3 shows an example in which the prediction accuracy setting unit D132 sets the upper width UW and lower width LW to the same value, this embodiment is not limited to this example. The upper width UW and lower width LW may be set to separate and independent values.

[0039] The 1kWh unit price display unit D133 shows the electricity cost per kWh (1kWh unit price) for each of the prediction accuracy candidates displayed in the prediction accuracy setting unit D132. Specifically, the 1kWh unit price display unit D133 shows examples where the smaller the upper width UW and lower width LW values ​​(higher prediction accuracy), the lower the electricity cost per kWh, and the larger the upper width UW and lower width LW values ​​(lower prediction accuracy), the higher the electricity cost per kWh.

[0040] The estimated power consumption display unit D134 shows the electricity charges for a predetermined period (billing intervals such as 30 minutes, 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, and 1 month) using the standard power consumption amount SEE (for example, 400 [kWh]) at the 1kWh unit price displayed in the 1kWh unit price display unit D133. This allows customer C to easily understand the benefits they will receive when selecting a rate plan with smaller upper range UW and lower range LW values.

[0041] The B-plan display unit D14 has a 1kWh unit price display unit D133 and an estimated energy consumption display unit D134 as part of its screen configuration. In other words, the B-plan display unit D14 differs from the A-plan display unit D13 in that it does not have a standard energy consumption setting unit D131 and a prediction accuracy setting unit D132 as part of its screen configuration. The B-plan display unit D14 is a general rate plan that does not set a predicted energy consumption range. By displaying the B-plan display unit D14, customer C can understand the benefits they would receive if they selected the A-plan.

[0042] Figure 3 shows an example in which the planned procurement amount determination device 20 allows customer C to set the base electricity amount SEE and forecast accuracy when setting a rate plan. However, the planned procurement amount determination device 20 according to this embodiment is not limited to this example. The planned procurement amount determination device 20 may also allow customer C to set the rate plan update frequency (30 minutes, 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, and 1 month, etc.), and whether to carry over the previous settings or reset them each time during updates.

[0043] Next, we will return to Figure 2 and explain the processing performed by the second processing unit 22.

[0044] The second processing unit 22 includes a rate plan acquisition unit 221, an accumulated points calculation unit 222, an electricity rate determination unit 223, an accumulated points output unit 224, and an electricity rate output unit 225.

[0045] The rate plan acquisition unit 221 acquires information from the customer terminal 10-1 regarding the rate plan selected based on the user's operation (hereinafter sometimes referred to as the set rate plan SP). The information regarding the set rate plan SP may include, for example, the predicted power consumption range PEER determined by the standard power consumption SEE, upper range UW, and lower range LW set by customer C, the target date for the prediction, and the frequency of rate plan updates. The set rate plan SP acquired by the rate plan acquisition unit 221 is stored in the rate plan aggregation DB 25. The rate plan aggregation DB 25 stores the set rate plan SP for each customer C.

[0046] The accumulation point calculation unit 222 obtains the measured power amount MEE for each customer C from the measured power amount acquisition unit 211. The accumulation point calculation unit 222 also obtains the predicted power amount range PEER for each customer C from the rate plan acquisition unit 221 and the rate plan aggregation DB 25. For each customer C, the accumulation point calculation unit 222 calculates the accumulation point AP based on the degree of discrepancy between the predicted power amount range PEER for the target day of the prediction and the measured power amount MEE used on the target day of the prediction, and stores it in the incentive tank IT.

[0047] Accumulated points AP are points accumulated in the incentive tank IT according to the degree of deviation between the predicted energy amount range PEER and the actual energy amount MEE. The accumulated points calculation unit 222 calculates a large accumulated points AP when the actual energy amount MEE falls within the predicted energy amount range PEER, that is, when there is no deviation between the actual energy amount MEE and the predicted energy amount range PEER. Conversely, the accumulated points calculation unit 222 calculates a small accumulated points AP when the actual energy amount MEE does not fall within the predicted energy amount range PEER, that is, when there is a deviation between the actual energy amount MEE and the predicted energy amount range PEER. In this embodiment, the accumulated points calculation unit 222 may, for example, calculate a positive accumulated points AP when there is no deviation and a negative accumulated points AP when there is a deviation.

[0048] An incentive tank (IT) is a virtual tank that accumulates accumulation points (AP) over an accumulation period, which is a period determined by the retail electricity provider (R) or by the rate plan. The more accumulation points (AP) accumulated in the incentive tank (IT), the lower the discrepancy between the measured energy consumption (MEE) and the predicted energy consumption range (PEER) during the accumulation period. Conversely, the fewer accumulation points (AP) accumulated, the higher the discrepancy between the measured energy consumption (MEE) and the predicted energy consumption range (PEER) during the accumulation period.

[0049] The accumulation point AP may have a larger absolute value as the measured energy amount MEE deviates from the predicted energy amount range PEER. Alternatively, the accumulation point AP may remain constant when the measured energy amount MEE is within the predicted energy amount range PEER, or it may change depending on the difference between the measured energy amount MEE and one of the reference energy amount SEE, the predicted upper limit PUL, or the predicted lower limit PLL.

[0050] Figure 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of how the storage point AP is calculated according to the embodiment. The storage point AP shown in Figure 4 is merely an example, and this embodiment is not limited to this example. Figure 4(A) shows the case where the measured energy amount MEE falls within the predicted energy amount range PEER. When the measured energy amount MEE falls within the predicted energy amount range PEER, the storage point calculation unit 222 may calculate the storage point AP according to the difference amount DC, or it may calculate the storage point AP of a constant value regardless of the difference amount DC. The difference amount DC is a value that indicates the difference in energy between the measured energy amount MEE and the predicted energy amount range PEER, and for example, it may be the smaller of the difference between the measured energy amount MEE and the predicted upper limit PUL, and the difference between the measured energy amount MEE and the predicted lower limit PLL. The accumulated points calculation unit 222 may, for example, use the difference amount DC as the accumulated points AP, or it may use the difference amount DC multiplied by the difference between the 1kWh unit price in the set rate plan SP (for example, 23.5 yen / kWh when the prediction accuracy is ±1%) and the 1kWh unit price in plan B (for example, 28 yen / kWh) as the accumulated points AP. When calculating accumulated points AP by multiplying the difference amount DC by the difference in the 1kWh unit price, rate plans with high prediction accuracy tend to accumulate accumulated points AP in the incentive tank IT, while rate plans with low prediction accuracy tend to accumulate accumulated points AP less.

[0051] The accumulation point calculation unit 222 stores the calculated accumulation points AP in the incentive tank IT. If the measured power amount MEE falls within the predicted power amount range PEER, the calculated value of accumulation points AP is positive, and therefore the accumulation points AP in the incentive tank IT increases.

[0052] Figure 4(B) shows the case where the measured energy amount MEE does not fall within the predicted energy amount range PEER. If the measured energy amount MEE does not fall within the predicted energy amount range PEER, the storage point calculation unit 222 may calculate the storage point AP according to the difference amount DC, or it may calculate the storage point AP as a constant value regardless of the difference amount DC. The storage point calculation unit 222 stores the calculated storage point AP in the incentive tank IT. If the measured energy amount MEE does not fall within the predicted energy amount range PEER, the calculated value of the storage point AP will be negative, and the storage point AP in the incentive tank IT will decrease. The storage point calculation unit 222 may calculate the storage point AP using the same calculation method whether the measured energy amount MEE falls within the predicted energy amount range PEER or not, or it may calculate the storage point AP using separate and independent calculation methods.

[0053] The incentive DB26 stores accumulated points AP for each customer C. The incentive DB26 may store, for example, the accumulated points AP stored in the incentive tank IT during the current accumulation period, or it may also store accumulated points AP stored in the incentive tank IT for each past accumulation period, or it may store accumulated points AP on a daily basis. The current accumulation period is the period during which electricity charges have not yet been paid.

[0054] The electricity rate determination unit 223 obtains information from the incentive DB 26 indicating the accumulated points AP accumulated in the incentive tank IT during the current accumulation period. The electricity rate determination unit 223 compares the accumulated points AP accumulated in the incentive tank IT with a threshold TH to determine whether the customer C was able to use an amount of electricity in line with the predicted energy usage range PEER. The threshold TH may be 0, or it may be a value arbitrarily determined based on the operations of the retail electricity provider R. For example, the electricity rate determination unit 223 determines that electricity could not be used in line with the predicted energy usage range PEER if the accumulated points AP is less than the threshold TH, and determines that electricity could be used in line with the predicted energy usage range PEER if the accumulated points AP is equal to or greater than the threshold TH. According to the incentive tank IT, the electricity rate determination unit 223 can average the degree of deviation during the accumulation period to determine whether electricity could be used in line with the predicted energy usage range PEER.

[0055] The electricity rate determination unit 223 decides to charge customer C the electricity rate according to the rate plan if they were able to use electricity in accordance with the predicted energy usage range PEER. If customer C uses electricity in accordance with the predicted energy usage range PEER, they can use electricity at a lower rate than the standard rate plan.

[0056] In response, the electricity rate determination unit 223 decides to charge customer C, who was unable to use electricity in accordance with the predicted energy usage range PEER, an electricity rate calculated by adding an amount corresponding to the value at which the accumulated points AP fell below the threshold TH to the set rate plan. According to this, customer C, who does not use electricity in accordance with the predicted energy usage range PEER, will be penalized and required to pay a higher electricity rate (surcharge) than if they had used electricity in accordance with the predicted energy usage range PEER. The surcharge may be, for example, an amount obtained by multiplying the 1kWh unit price predetermined by the retail electricity provider R by the difference amount DC.

[0057] The accumulated points output unit 224 outputs information regarding the degree of deviation to the customer terminal 10-1. This information regarding the degree of deviation may be, for example, whether or not there is a deviation, or it may be information indicating the amount of accumulated points AP in the incentive tank IT. The electricity charge output unit 225 outputs information regarding the electricity charge determined by the accumulated points output unit 224 to the customer terminal 10-1. Customer C can operate the customer terminal 10-1 to check the electricity charge and the benefits obtained from accumulated points AP. The accumulated points output unit 224 may also be called the degree of deviation output unit.

[0058] The accumulated point output unit 224 may also output information regarding the degree of deviation to the business terminal 10-2. The information output to the business terminal 10-2 may, for example, be information that shows the accumulated points AP of each customer C separately and independently, or it may be accumulated points AP aggregated for each customer C that meets predetermined conditions.

[0059] Figure 5 shows a second display screen D2, which is an example of a notification screen for electricity charges displayed on the customer terminal 10-1. Figure 5 shows an example of a screen that notifies the confirmed amount of electricity usage and electricity charges after the accumulation period has elapsed. The second display screen D2 has the following screen configuration: an incentive tank display unit D21, a selected rate plan display unit D22, an actual electricity amount display unit D23, a surcharge electricity charge display unit D24, and an electricity charge display unit D25.

[0060] The incentive tank display unit D21 displays information (for example, numbers or shapes) indicating the amount of accumulated points AP stored in the incentive tank IT. By checking the incentive tank display unit D21, customer C can determine whether they are using electricity within the predicted power consumption range PEER, and the amount of accumulated points AP they have stored.

[0061] The selected rate plan display unit D22 displays the rate plan selected by customer C. In Figure 5, the selected rate plan display unit D22 indicates that customer C selected plan A. The selected rate plan display unit D22 may also display components of the predicted energy range PEER, such as the base energy amount SEE and prediction accuracy.

[0062] The actual electricity consumption display unit D23 may display the amount of electricity used by customer C during a predetermined storage period, or the measured electricity consumption MEE, which is the amount of electricity used on a daily basis.

[0063] The surcharge electricity charge display unit D24 displays the amount of the surcharge electricity charge, which is the electricity charge added according to the degree of deviation between the measured electricity amount MEE and the predicted electricity amount range PEER. In Figure 5, since the accumulation point AP in the incentive tank IT is greater than or equal to the threshold TH of 0, there is no deviation between the measured electricity amount MEE and the predicted electricity amount range PEER. In other words, customer C is using electricity according to the predicted electricity amount range PEER that it has set. Therefore, the surcharge electricity charge billed to customer C is 0 yen.

[0064] The electricity rate display unit D25 displays the electricity charge for the power used by customer C. The electricity rate display unit D25 may also display, for example, the amount obtained by multiplying the 1kWh unit price according to the prediction accuracy by the actual measured power amount MEE and adding a surcharge.

[0065] The point usage display section D26 shows potential uses for accumulated points AP. Accumulated points AP may be used, for example, for donations to disaster-stricken areas. When accumulated points AP are donated, for example, an amount corresponding to the accumulated points AP may be deducted from the electricity charges used in the recipient's region. Accumulated points AP may also be sent, for example, to an incentive tank IT of a person designated by customer C, such as a friend or family member of customer C. Accumulated points AP may also be used to grant benefits to customer C, such as exchange for digital money or goods, or payment of electricity charges. Furthermore, accumulated points AP may be reset monthly or carried over.

[0066] Next, we will return to Figure 2 and explain the third processing unit 23.

[0067] The third processing unit 23 includes a planned procurement amount determination unit 231 and a planned procurement amount output unit 232. The planned procurement amount determination unit 231 obtains information from the rate plan aggregation DB 25 indicating the rate plan of each customer C, that is, the predicted energy consumption range PEER set by each customer C. The planned procurement amount determination unit 231 determines the planned procurement amount, which is the amount of energy that the retail electricity provider R needs to procure, by performing statistical calculations based on each predicted energy consumption range PEER. The planned procurement amount determination unit 231 may, for example, use a representative value such as the average or median of the reference energy consumption SEE for each predicted energy consumption range PEER as the planned procurement amount. Alternatively, the planned procurement amount determination unit 231 may determine the planned procurement amount from a value between the sum of all predicted upper limit PUL values ​​for each predicted energy consumption range PEER and the sum of all predicted lower limit PLL values ​​for each predicted energy consumption range PEER.

[0068] Furthermore, the planned procurement amount determination unit 231 may obtain accumulated points AP for each customer C from the incentive DB 26. The planned procurement amount determination unit 231 determines the planned procurement amount by weighting each predicted energy range PEER according to the degree of deviation, i.e., the amount of accumulated points AP. For example, the planned procurement amount determination unit 231 may make the predicted upper limit PUL and predicted lower limit PLL of the predicted energy range PEER different depending on the amount of accumulated points AP. Specifically, the planned procurement amount determination unit 231 may perform a process to broaden the predicted upper limit PUL and predicted lower limit PLL of the predicted energy range PEER for customers C with a small amount of accumulated points AP, and determine the planned procurement amount based on the predicted energy range PEER after this process.

[0069] The planned procurement amount output unit 232 outputs information indicating the planned procurement amount determined by the planned procurement amount determination unit 231 to the business terminal 10-2. The retail electricity business R checks the planned procurement amount displayed on the business terminal 10-2 and decides how much electricity to procure. The retail electricity business R may procure electricity by, for example, bidding on and purchasing it in the wholesale electricity trading market, or it may procure electricity from power generators, etc., with whom it has concluded a bilateral contract specifying the annual amount of electricity to be purchased and the price.

[0070] The procurement amount DB27 stores the planned procurement amount PE and the actual procurement amount AE. The planned procurement amount PE may be the planned procurement amount determined by the planned procurement amount determination unit 231, or it may be the procurement amount determined by the retail electricity provider R. By referring to the information stored in the procurement amount DB27, the retail electricity provider R can understand the amount of electricity to be procured and the remaining amount of electricity that needs to be procured. If the retail electricity provider R has a bilateral contract with a power generation company, the planned procurement amount output unit 232 may output the planned bid amount, which is the planned procurement amount minus the amount of electricity that can be procured through the bilateral contract.

[0071] Figure 6 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the processing flow of the planned procurement quantity determination device 20 according to the embodiment. The processing flow shown in Figure 6 is merely an example, and the planned procurement quantity determination device 20 according to the embodiment may execute the processing in a different order than shown in Figure 6.

[0072] (Step S101) The planned procurement amount determination device 20 outputs candidate rate plans to the customer terminal 10-1. The planned procurement amount determination device 20 may also output the measured power amount MEE and the predicted standard power amount SEE to the customer terminal 10-1 as information for customer C to use when setting a rate plan.

[0073] (Step S102) The planned procurement amount determination device 20 obtains the set rate plan SP set by customer C. This rate plan is a rate plan that benefits from using electricity within the predicted electricity amount range PEER, which is determined by the base electricity amount SEE and the prediction accuracy (upper range UW and lower range LW). Customer C sets the predicted electricity amount range PEER for the day to be predicted, for example.

[0074] (Step S103) The planned procurement amount determination device 20 determines the planned procurement amount for the target day by performing statistical calculations based on the predicted power consumption range PEER obtained from each customer C. In other words, when determining the rate plan, the planned procurement amount determination device 20 allows customers C to accurately understand the amount of power they plan to use on the target day by having them predict their power consumption for the target day.

[0075] (Step S104) The planned procurement amount determination device 20 outputs the planned procurement amount to the business terminal 10-2. The retail electricity business R confirms the planned procurement amount displayed on the business terminal 10-2 and determines the bid amount for the electricity for the target day.

[0076] (Step S105) The planned procurement amount determination device 20 obtains the actual power amount MEE for the target day for which the predicted power amount range PEER was predicted. The planned procurement amount determination device 20 calculates an accumulation point AP which indicates the degree of deviation between the predicted power amount range PEER for the target day and the actual power amount MEE for the target day.

[0077] (Step S106) The planned procurement amount determination device 20 determines the electricity charge to be billed to customer C by comparing the calculated storage point AP with the threshold TH. Specifically, if the predicted power amount range PEER and the actual power amount MEE deviate from each other and the storage point AP falls below the threshold TH, the planned procurement amount determination device 20 decides to bill a higher electricity charge than when the storage point AP is equal to or greater than the threshold TH.

[0078] (Step S107) The planned procurement amount determination device 20 outputs information to the customer terminal 10-1 indicating the determined electricity charges and the value of the accumulated points AP.

[0079] (Step S108) The planned procurement amount determination device 20 outputs information to the business terminal 10-2 indicating the value of customer C's accumulated points AP. Retail electricity businesses R and power generation businesses can determine how conscious customer C is of adjusting their electricity consumption by checking the amount of customer C's accumulated points AP.

[0080] [Summary of Embodiment 1] According to the embodiment described above, the planned procurement amount determination device 20 includes a rate plan acquisition unit 221 that acquires a rate plan set by each customer C, which determines the electricity charge for customer C based on a standard energy amount SEE, a predicted energy amount range PEER based on the size of the upper width UW from the standard energy amount SEE and the size of the lower width LW from the standard energy amount SEE, and the amount of energy used by customer C, and an actual energy amount acquisition unit that acquires an actual energy amount MEE, which is the amount of energy used by customer C, for each customer C. The device comprises: 211; an electricity rate determination unit 223 that determines a higher electricity rate when the deviation between the measured energy amount MEE and the predicted energy amount range PEER exceeds a predetermined standard; an electricity rate output unit 225 that outputs the result determined by the electricity rate determination unit 223; a planned procurement amount determination unit 231 that determines the planned procurement amount of electricity based on the predicted energy amount range PEER of the rate plan selected by each customer C; and a planned procurement amount output unit 232 that outputs the planned procurement amount determined by the planned procurement amount determination unit 231. The planned procurement amount determination device 20 according to this embodiment proposes to customer C a rate plan in which the electricity rate will be low if electricity is used according to the predicted energy amount range PEER on the target day of the prediction, and high if electricity is not used according to the predicted energy amount range PEER. According to this rate plan, in order to lower the electricity rate, customer C is more likely to predict the predicted energy amount range PEER and use electricity according to the predicted predicted energy amount range PEER. Since the planned procurement amount determination device 20 determines the planned procurement amount based on the predicted electricity amount range PEER determined in the rate plan, the retail electricity provider R can accurately grasp the amount of electricity used on the day of the forecast. Therefore, the retail electricity provider R can accurately forecast the actual demand and set the planned demand amount, thereby reducing the amount of imbalance.

[0081] Furthermore, according to the embodiment described above, the electricity rate plan is such that the electricity rate is higher when the range between the predicted upper limit PUL and the predicted lower limit PLL of the predicted energy consumption range PEER is greater than a predetermined range, and the electricity rate is lower when the range between the predicted upper limit PUL and the predicted lower limit PLL of the predicted energy consumption range PEER is smaller than a predetermined range. In other words, the higher the prediction accuracy (for example, ±1%), the lower the electricity rate, and the lower the prediction accuracy (for example, ±10%), the higher the electricity rate. According to this rate plan, in order to lower the electricity rate, customer C can set the predicted energy consumption range PEER with a higher prediction accuracy, and it becomes easier for them to use electricity according to the set predicted energy consumption range PEER. As a result, retail electricity provider R can grasp the amount of electricity used on the day of the prediction with greater accuracy.

[0082] Furthermore, according to the embodiment described above, the planned procurement amount determination unit 231 determines the planned procurement amount by setting different predicted upper limit PUL and predicted lower limit PLL of the predicted power range PEER for customer C based on the degree of deviation between the actual power amount MEE and the predicted power range PEER for customer C. Specifically, since the amount of electricity used by customer C, which has a large degree of deviation between the actual power amount MEE and the predicted power range PEER and a low accumulation point AP, is likely to fall outside the predicted power range PEER, the range from the predicted upper limit PUL to the predicted lower limit PLL may be widened when determining the planned procurement amount. In this case, the planned procurement amount determination device 20 can determine the planned procurement amount by considering whether customer C uses electricity according to the predicted power range PEER. The retail electricity provider R can grasp the amount of electricity used on the target day of the forecast with greater accuracy.

[0083] Furthermore, according to the embodiment described above, the planned procurement amount determination device 20 further includes a storage point output unit 224 that outputs information regarding the degree of deviation of each customer to a business terminal 10-2 operated by the retail electricity business operator. This allows the retail electricity business operator R to understand the storage points AP of each customer C and confirm whether the customer C has a storage point AP that can be used for donations, etc. In addition, the retail electricity business operator R can understand the level of awareness of each customer C regarding adjusting their electricity consumption from the storage points AP of each customer C. This allows the retail electricity business operator R to identify potential customer Cs who are likely to participate in and promote energy conservation and electricity-related events.

[0084] Figure 7 is a block diagram showing an example of the internal configuration of the planned procurement quantity determination device 20 according to the embodiment. At least some of the functions of the planned procurement quantity determination device 20 can be realized using a computer. As shown in the figure, the computer is composed of a central processing unit 901, RAM 902, input / output ports 903, input / output devices 904 and 905, etc., and a bus 906. The computer itself can be realized using existing technology. The central processing unit 901 executes instructions contained in programs read from RAM 902, etc. The central processing unit 901 writes data to RAM 902, reads data from RAM 902, and performs arithmetic and logical operations according to each instruction. RAM 902 stores data and programs. Each element contained in RAM 902 has an address and can be accessed using that address. RAM stands for "Random Access Memory". Input / output ports 903 are ports for the central processing unit 901 to exchange data with external input / output devices, etc. Input / output devices 904 and 905 are input / output devices. Input / output devices 904 and 905 exchange data with the central processing unit 901 via input / output ports 903. Bus 906 is a common communication channel used within the computer. For example, the central processing unit 901 reads and writes data to RAM 902 via bus 906. Also, for example, the central processing unit 901 accesses input / output ports via bus 906. Furthermore, all or part of each functional unit of the planned procurement amount determination device 20 may be implemented using hardware such as ASICs, PLDs, or FPGAs. Furthermore, all or part of each functional unit may be implemented by a combination of software and hardware.

[0085] Furthermore, the functions of all or part of the components of the planned procurement quantity determination device 20 in the above-described embodiment may be realized by recording a program for realizing these functions on a computer-readable recording medium, and then having a computer system read and execute the program recorded on this recording medium. The term "computer system" here includes hardware such as an operating system and peripheral devices.

[0086] Although one embodiment of this invention has been described in detail above with reference to the drawings, the specific configuration is not limited to that described above, and various design changes can be made without departing from the spirit of this invention. Furthermore, the configurations described in each embodiment and example above may be combined. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0087] C...Customer, R...Retail electricity provider, 1...System, 10...Terminal equipment, 10-1...Customer terminal, 10-2...Provider terminal, 20...Planned procurement amount determination device, 21...First processing unit, 22...Second processing unit, 23...Third processing unit, 24...Rate plan list DB, 25...Rate plan aggregation DB, 26...Incentive DB, 27...Procurement amount DB, 211...Actual measured power amount acquisition unit, 212...Weather information acquisition unit, 213...Power consumption forecast unit, 214...Rate plan candidate determination unit, 215...Actual measured power amount output unit, 216...Forecasted power amount output unit, 217...Rate plan Run candidate output unit, 221... Rate plan acquisition unit, 222... Accumulated point calculation unit, 223... Electricity rate determination unit, 224... Accumulated point output unit, 225... Electricity rate output unit, 231... Planned procurement amount determination unit, 232... Planned procurement amount output unit, UW... Upper width, LW... Lower width, DC... Difference amount, SEE... Standard power amount, MEE... Actual power amount, PUL... Predicted upper limit, PLL... Predicted lower limit, CP... Rate plan candidate, SP... Set rate plan, PE... Planned procurement amount, AE... Actual procurement amount, IT... Incentive tank, AP... Accumulated points, TH... Threshold

Claims

1. A rate plan in which the electricity charge for a customer is determined based on a standard energy charge, a predicted energy charge range based on the magnitude of the upper limit from the standard energy charge, the magnitude of the lower limit from the standard energy charge, and the amount of energy used by the customer, the rate plan acquisition unit which acquires the rate plan set by the customer for each customer, The measured power consumption amount of the aforementioned consumer is obtained from the measured power consumption amount for each consumer, An electricity rate determination unit that determines a high electricity rate when the degree of deviation between the measured electricity amount and the predicted electricity amount range exceeds a predetermined standard, An electricity rate output unit that outputs the result determined by the electricity rate determination unit, A planned procurement amount determination unit determines the planned amount of electricity to be procured based on the predicted electricity volume range of the rate plan selected by each customer, A planned procurement quantity output unit that outputs the planned procurement quantity determined by the planned procurement quantity determination unit, A device for determining the planned procurement quantity, equipped with the following features.

2. The aforementioned pricing plan is such that the electricity charge is higher when the range between the upper and lower limits of the predicted electricity consumption is greater than a predetermined range, and the electricity charge is lower when the range between the upper and lower limits of the predicted electricity consumption is less than the predetermined range. The planned procurement quantity determination device according to claim 1.

3. The planned procurement amount determination unit determines the planned procurement amount by setting different upper and lower limits for the predicted power consumption range of the customer based on the customer's deviation degree. A device for determining the planned procurement quantity according to claim 1 or claim 2.

4. The system further includes a deviation degree output unit that outputs information regarding the deviation degree of each customer to a terminal device operated by a retail electricity provider. A device for determining the planned procurement quantity according to claim 1 or claim 2.

5. A rate plan in which the electricity charge for a customer is determined based on a standard energy charge, a predicted energy charge range based on the magnitude of the upper limit from the standard energy charge, the magnitude of the lower limit from the standard energy charge, and the amount of energy used by the customer, wherein the rate plan set by the customer is obtained for each customer. The measured amount of electricity used by each customer is obtained for each customer. If the degree of deviation between the measured amount of electricity and the predicted amount of electricity is greater than or equal to a predetermined standard, the electricity charges will be set at a higher rate. Outputting the determined electricity charges, The planned amount of electricity to be procured is determined based on the predicted electricity volume range of the rate plan selected by each customer, Outputting the determined planned procurement quantity, A method for determining the planned procurement quantity, which includes the following:

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