Risk assessment device

Abstract

This technology provides a way to quickly assess the manufacturing risk of steel materials based on past manufacturing records. [Solution] A risk determination device comprising a control unit that receives specification information of an inquiry, including the specification conditions and specified values ​​of steel materials, aggregates past manufacturing results stored in a manufacturing database, compares the specification information with the past manufacturing results, determines the manufacturing risk, and outputs the determined manufacturing risk.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This disclosure relates to a risk determination device.

Background Art

[0002] As a method for determining the manufacturing risk of a product, as in Patent Document 1, there is a method of inputting customer requirements specifications, outputting available steel grades and manufacturing specification conditions from a database, and displaying them. Also, as in Patent Document 2, there is a technique of extracting manufacturing records that meet the specifications for customer requirements specifications, and relaxing or narrowing down the requirements specifications according to the extraction status of the records and then extracting the records.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Patent Document 2

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] As a method for implementing risk determination in manufacturing a product that conforms to an inquiry from a customer, for example, in the case of a steel product, the material components and manufacturing methods for manufacturing a steel plate that satisfies customer specifications are investigated from laboratory-level experimental data, trial production results on the actual line, past mass production records, etc., or the manufacturability is determined by a list of pre-prepared manufacturing methods, etc. However, steel has a very wide range of standard conditions including overseas standards, and there are many cases where a judgment for each product is required, such as when additional specifications are required according to the user's specification conditions or design conditions. In this case, it is highly burdensome to accurately judge manufacturability and manufacturing risk, and there may be a failure in risk determination.

[0005] The technology described in Patent Document 1 has a function to display a list of registered manufacturing methods using customer specifications as the key item, but it does not allow confirmation of whether or not there is a manufacturing record, the manufacturing load, or the results of material testing, etc. The technology described in Patent Document 2 has a function to search for manufacturing records from a database, but there is a concern that the data search will take a long time if the amount of data is large.

[0006] This disclosure aims to solve these problems by providing a technology that can quickly determine the manufacturing risk of a product based on past manufacturing performance. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] [1] The specification information of the inquiry, including the specifications and specified values ​​of the steel material, is entered. The past manufacturing records stored in the manufacturing database are compiled, The above specification information is compared with the above past manufacturing performance to determine the manufacturing risk. A risk assessment device comprising a control unit that outputs the determined manufacturing risk.

[0008] [2] The control unit is, The aforementioned past manufacturing records are compiled by classifying them in a way that allows them to be associated with the material test results, which are the results of the material tests, using the manufacturing conditions that define the conditions under which steel plates are manufactured and the material test conditions that define the types of material tests to be performed as key items. The risk assessment device described in [1] above.

[0009] [3] The control unit is The aforementioned past manufacturing results will be classified in a way that allows them to be linked to manufacturing process results or manufacturing yield, etc., using manufacturing conditions (which specify the conditions under which steel plates are manufactured) and material testing conditions (which specify the types of material tests to be performed) as key items. The risk assessment device described in [1] above.

[0010] [4] The control unit, The aforementioned past manufacturing results are classified in a way that allows them to be associated with manufacturing process results or manufacturing yield, etc., using the aforementioned manufacturing conditions and material testing conditions as key items. The risk assessment device described in [2] above.

[0011] [5] The control unit is The system further outputs at least one of the following as manufacturing risks: the stability of the material test, the occurrence rate of additional processes with high manufacturing load, and the level of manufacturing yield, based on the material test results and the specified values. A risk assessment device as described in any one of the above items [1] to [4].

[0012] [6] The control unit is The aforementioned past manufacturing records are grouped by similar data, For the grouped past manufacturing records, the mean and standard deviation of the test results for each material are calculated. Based on the specified values ​​and the average and standard deviation of the results of each material test, the process capability index is calculated. Based on the aforementioned process capability index, manufacturing risk is determined. A risk assessment device as described in any one of the above items [1] to [4].

[0013] [7] The control unit is The aforementioned past manufacturing records are grouped by similar data, For the grouped past manufacturing records, the mean and standard deviation of the test results for each material are calculated. Based on the specified values ​​and the average and standard deviation of the results of each material test, the process capability index is calculated. The manufacturing risk is determined based on the process capability index. The risk assessment device described in [5] above. [Effects of the Invention]

[0014] According to this disclosure, it is possible to provide a technology that can determine the manufacturing risk of a product in a short time based on past manufacturing performance. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0015] [Figure 1] It is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of the risk determination device according to the present embodiment.

Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0016] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. In each drawing, parts having the same configuration or function are denoted by the same reference numerals. In the description of the present embodiment, redundant descriptions of the same parts may be omitted or simplified as appropriate.

[0017] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of a risk determination device 1 according to the present embodiment. The risk determination device 1 includes a control unit 11, a storage unit 12, an input unit 13, and an output unit 14. The risk determination device 1 may be a general-purpose computer such as a workstation or a personal computer.

[0018] The control unit 11 includes at least one processor, at least one dedicated circuit, or a combination thereof. The processor is a general-purpose processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) or a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), or a dedicated processor specialized for specific processing. The dedicated circuit is, for example, an FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array) or an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit). The control unit 11 reads programs, data, etc. stored in the storage unit 12 and executes various functions.

[0019] The storage unit 12 is, for example, a flash memory, a hard disk, or an optical memory. Part of the storage unit 12 may be located outside the risk assessment device 1. In this case, part of the storage unit 12 may be a hard disk, memory card, or the like, connected to the risk assessment device 1 via an arbitrary interface. The storage unit 12 stores programs for the control unit 11 to execute each function, data used by said programs, and so on.

[0020] The memory unit 12 stores a manufacturing database. The manufacturing database may contain past manufacturing records. Past manufacturing records may include manufacturing conditions, material test conditions, material test results, manufacturing process processing results, and manufacturing yield for products manufactured in the past. Manufacturing conditions specify the conditions under which the product will be manufactured. For example, if the product is made of steel, manufacturing conditions may include the steel type, plate thickness, carbon equivalent, rolling end temperature, cooling stop temperature, etc. Material test conditions specify what kind of material tests will be performed. For example, material test conditions may include yield strength tests, tensile strength tests, elongation tests, impact energy tests, etc. Material test results may be the results of the material tests specified in the material test conditions.

[0021] The input unit 13 includes one or more input interfaces that detect user input and acquire input information based on user operations. The input unit 13 includes, for example, physical keys, capacitive keys, a touchscreen integrated with the display of the output unit 14, or a microphone that accepts voice input.

[0022] The output unit 14 includes one or more output interfaces for outputting information and notifying the user. The output unit 14 includes, for example, a display for outputting information as an image, a speaker for outputting information as sound, etc. The display included in the output unit 14 may be, for example, an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display), a CRT (Cathode Ray Tube) display, etc.

[0023] Next, we will explain the processes performed by the risk assessment device 1.

[0024] (Input of specification information for inquiries) The input unit 13 of the risk assessment device 1 receives the specification information of the inquiry. The input specification information includes specification conditions and specified values. The specification conditions are the manufacturing conditions and material test conditions required in the inquiry, and may include, for example, if the product is made of steel, the impact test temperature, the position within the steel plate that specifies the temperature in the heat treatment conditions, etc. The specified values ​​are the values ​​of material properties etc. required in the inquiry, and may include, for example, if the product is made of steel, the upper and / or lower limits of the average required values ​​of yield strength, tensile strength, elongation, and impact energy. The input specification information may further include items that affect the actual manufacturing method of the product. The input method is not particularly limited, but may be manual input, automatic input such as scanning a paper specification document and performing character recognition using OCR (Optical Character Recognition) and inputting the data, or semi-automatic input combining these methods.

[0025] (Summary of past manufacturing performance) The control unit 11 retrieves the manufacturing database from the storage unit 12 and aggregates past manufacturing results. Specifically, the control unit 11 makes the past manufacturing results classifiable by associating them with material test results, using manufacturing conditions and material test conditions as key items. For data not registered in the manufacturing database, the control unit 11 may aggregate the data based on the information entered from the input unit 13. The control unit 11 may also make the past manufacturing results classifiable by associating them with manufacturing process processing results or manufacturing yield, etc., using manufacturing conditions and material test conditions as key items.

[0026] (Assessment of manufacturing risks) The control unit 11 performs risk assessment by comparing the specification information entered in the input unit 13 with the material test results, manufacturing process processing results, and manufacturing yield of past manufacturing performance compiled from the manufacturing database using statistical methods. The statistical method used is not particularly limited, but for example, the process capability index (Cpk) may be used.

[0027] Specifically, the control unit 11 groups past manufacturing records in the manufacturing database based on manufacturing conditions and material test results, grouping them according to similar data. The grouping criteria can be set arbitrarily. For example, the control unit 11 may group only past manufacturing records where the rolling completion temperature is within a specific range. The control unit 11 calculates the standard deviation of the material test results of the grouped past manufacturing records.

[0028] Next, the control unit 11 calculates Cpk based on the specified value and the standard deviation of the material test results from past manufacturing records. Specifically, the control unit 11 calculates the mean, maximum, minimum, and standard deviation of each material test result for the grouped past manufacturing records. Then, the control unit 11 calculates Cp, CpkH, and CpkL respectively based on the following equations (1) to (3), and calculates the one with the smallest value among Cp, CpkH, and CpkL as Cpk. Using only one of the equations (1) to (3) as the calculation criterion is undesirable because it may lead to manufacturing risks if the value is smallest using the other calculation criterion. Furthermore, the mean value of the manufacturing records does not necessarily follow a normal distribution that is equal to the median of the upper and lower limits of the specification. Therefore, by calculating Cpk as the smallest value among equations (1) to (3), it is possible to cover all risk cases with respect to the specification value, such as when there is a risk with respect to the upper specification limit, when there is a risk with respect to the lower specification limit, and when there is a risk with respect to both the upper and lower specification limits, thereby preventing underestimation or overestimation of manufacturing risk. In equations (1) to (3) below, USL represents the upper specification limit, LSL represents the lower specification limit, μ represents the average value of past manufacturing performance, and σ represents the standard deviation.

number

[0029] The control unit 11 may determine the manufacturing risk based on the calculated Cpk. For example, the control unit 11 may determine the manufacturing risk as A if the Cpk is 1.25 or greater, as B if the Cpk is greater than 1.00 and less than 1.25, and as C if the Cpk is 1.00 or less.

[0030] The control unit 11 may further process the stability of the material test, the occurrence rate of additional processes with high manufacturing load, and the level of manufacturing yield using statistical methods, based on the material test results and specified values, and include them in the determination of manufacturing risks. Additional processes with high manufacturing load may, for example, if the product is made of steel, be processes based on failures other than material testing, surface treatment, cold straightening, etc. The control unit 11 may further output the stability of the material test, the occurrence rate of additional processes with high manufacturing load, and the level of manufacturing yield as one of the manufacturing risks.

[0031] The control unit 11 may register in advance in the manufacturing database the relationship between the manufacturing method, the resources used, the processes used, and the costs, as well as the relationship between the processes used and the required lead time. The control unit 11 may also calculate the manufacturing cost and delivery date from this information, determine the price of the product, and respond to the customer with the delivery date. Furthermore, the control unit 11 may register in the manufacturing database information such as the chemical composition and dimensions of the materials used in the manufacture of the product that are present in the manufacturing plant, and perform calculations of manufacturing costs and delivery dates, etc.

[0032] The control unit 11 may use, in addition to the information registered in the manufacturing database, conditions for manufacturing feasibility related to dimensional constraints and appearance and shape due to the equipment for risk assessment, or it may determine whether or not the product can be manufactured. The control unit 11 may be configured to allow pre-setting of conditions for manufacturing feasibility related to dimensional constraints and appearance and shape due to the equipment.

[0033] (Output of manufacturing risk) The control unit 11 outputs the results of the manufacturing risk assessment to the output unit 14. The results of the manufacturing risk assessment may be an overall evaluation result for each key item, or both. The overall evaluation result may be an evaluation value calculated in the manufacturing risk assessment, or it may be a ranking of the evaluation values ​​with predetermined thresholds.

[0034] The control unit 11 may select a manufacturing method suitable for the customer from among multiple manufacturing methods deemed feasible and output it to the output unit 14. In this case, the method with the highest rank evaluation may be automatically selected, or the final selection decision may be made manually by displaying the manufacturing methods in order from the highest rank based on the judgment rank evaluation. [Examples]

[0035] The following describes embodiments of the present invention. However, the embodiments of the present invention are not limited to the following embodiments and can be modified as appropriate without departing from the spirit of the invention.

[0036] Table 1 shows data grouped by the control unit 11, focusing only on past steel product manufacturing records where the rolling completion temperature was 856°C. In Table 1, plate thickness, carbon equivalent (WES), rolling completion temperature, and cooling stop temperature are used as manufacturing conditions, and yield strength, tensile strength, elongation, and average impact energy are associated with material test results. Note that for past manufacturing records No. 3 to 5 in Table 1, Charpy impact tests were not performed, so the average impact energy is not recorded.

[0037] [Table 1]

[0038] Table 2 shows the upper and lower specification limits, average, maximum, minimum, and standard deviation of past manufacturing results for each material test result when the specified values ​​from the specification information are applied to the data in Table 1, as well as Cp, CpkH, CpkL, and Cpk calculated from this data. Note that since there are no specification limits for elongation and impact energy averages, Cp and CpkH, which are calculated using the specification limits, cannot be calculated.

[0039] [Table 2]

[0040] In the example of Table 2, since CpkL is the minimum value for all of the yield strength, tensile strength, elongation, and average impact energy, the value of CpkL is calculated as Cpk.

[0041] Table 3 is a table showing an output example of risks determined by Cpk calculated using the present invention. In Table 3, for manufacturing risks, when 1.25 ≤ Cpk, it is judged as A (manufacturable), when 1 < Cpk < 1.25, it is judged as B (during manufacturing risk), and when Cpk ≤ 1, it is judged as C (high manufacturing risk).

[0042]

Table 3

[0043] In Judgment No. 1 of Table 3, since the Cpk of the yield strength is 0.95, the manufacturing risk is judged as C. Similarly, since the Cpk of the tensile strength is 1.19, the manufacturing risk is judged as B, since the Cpk of the elongation is 5.26, the manufacturing risk is judged as A, and since the Cpk of the average impact energy is 9.61, the manufacturing risk is judged as A. From this, it is clear that the specification of Judgment No. 1 has a high manufacturing risk due to the规定 of the yield strength.

[0044] By adopting the method as in this embodiment, the evaluation of manufacturing risks for a plurality of items can be performed in a short time. Therefore, compared with the conventional method for judging manufacturability, the possibility of making an incorrect judgment can be reduced.

[0045] This disclosure is not limited to the above-described embodiments. For example, a plurality of blocks described in the block diagram may be integrated, or one block may be divided. In addition, modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of this disclosure.

[0046] For example, the memory unit 12 may further store inventory information of materials held by the manufacturing plant. The control unit 11 may determine whether a product that meets the specification information can be manufactured based on the inventory information stored in the memory unit 12 and the specification information. Furthermore, the control unit 11 may calculate the delivery date for a product that meets the specification information. By adopting such a configuration, it becomes possible to determine manufacturing risk while taking into account the inventory status of the manufacturing plant.

[0047] Furthermore, the memory unit 12 may also store customer information and one or more steel material manufacturing methods. The customer information may include specification information from past inquiries. The control unit 11 may select a manufacturing method suitable for the customer who issued the inquiry from among the product manufacturing methods stored in the memory unit 12 that are determined to be feasible based on the conditions for feasibility of manufacturing, and output it to the output unit 14. By adopting such a configuration, it is possible to easily select a manufacturing method that suits the customer while taking manufacturing risks into consideration. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0048] 1. Risk assessment device 11 Control Unit 12 Storage section 13 Input section 14 Output section

Claims

1. The specification information of the inquiry, including the specifications and specified values ​​for the steel material, is entered. The past manufacturing records stored in the manufacturing database are compiled, The above specification information is compared with the above past manufacturing performance to determine the manufacturing risk. A risk assessment device comprising a control unit that outputs the determined manufacturing risk.

2. The control unit, The aforementioned past manufacturing records are compiled by classifying them in a way that allows them to be associated with the material test results, which are the results of the material tests, using the manufacturing conditions that define the conditions under which steel plates are manufactured and the material test conditions that define the types of material tests to be performed as key items. The risk determination device according to claim 1.

3. The control unit, The aforementioned past manufacturing results will be classified in a way that allows them to be linked to manufacturing process results or manufacturing yield, etc., using manufacturing conditions (which specify the conditions under which steel plates are manufactured) and material testing conditions (which specify the types of material tests to be performed) as key items. The risk determination device according to claim 1.

4. The control unit, The aforementioned past manufacturing results are classified in a way that allows them to be associated with manufacturing process results or manufacturing yield, etc., using the aforementioned manufacturing conditions and material testing conditions as key items. The risk determination device according to claim 2.

5. The control unit, The system further outputs manufacturing risks, including the stability of the material test, the occurrence rate of additional processes with high manufacturing load, and the level of manufacturing yield, determined from the material test results and the specified values. A risk determination device according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

6. The control unit, The aforementioned past manufacturing records are grouped by similar data, For the grouped past manufacturing records, the mean and standard deviation of the test results for each material are calculated. Based on the specified values ​​and the average and standard deviation of the results of each material test, the process capability index is calculated. The manufacturing risk is determined based on the process capability index. A risk determination device according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

7. The control unit, The aforementioned past manufacturing records are grouped by similar data, For the grouped past manufacturing records, the mean and standard deviation of the test results for each material are calculated. Based on the specified values ​​and the average and standard deviation of the results of each material test, the process capability index is calculated. The manufacturing risk is determined based on the process capability index. The risk determination device according to claim 5.

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