Photovoltaic power generation prediction device, and control method and program for photovoltaic power generation prediction device

Abstract

To more accurately predict the amount of power generated in a photovoltaic power generation facility a short time later from now without providing an observation facility for each installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility.SOLUTION: A photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device determines a first predicted value obtained by predicting the amount of power generated in a photovoltaic power generation facility within a period of a first time from the present time, and the device comprises: a provisional value calculation unit that calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value by using a first calculation formula; a second predicted value calculation unit that calculates, by using a second calculation formula, a second predicted value obtained by predicting the amount of power generated in the photovoltaic power generation facility in a period of a second time shorter than the first time from the present time; a third predicted value calculation unit that, based on the provisional value and the amount of power generated in the photovoltaic power generation facility from the time the first time earlier than the present time to the present time, calculates a third predicted value obtained by predicting the amount of power generated in the photovoltaic power generation facility within a period of the second time from the present time; and a first predicted value calculation unit that calculates the first predicted value by subtracting the difference between the third predicted value and the second predicted value from the provisional value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 5B

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device, a control method for a photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] In order to provide a stable supply of high-quality electricity, electric power companies control the output of power generators in various locations on a daily basis to balance the supply and demand of electricity.

[0003] For example, electric power companies use generator operation plans determined based on power demand forecasts created up until the previous day to combine multiple power demand forecasts for the next few minutes to tens of minutes or even hours each day to perform economical load dispatching control (EDC) and load frequency control (LFC) to precisely control generator output (see, for example, Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2013-062953 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] However, in recent years, the rapid spread of photovoltaic power generation facilities, whose power output varies greatly depending on the amount of solar radiation, has begun to affect the control of the supply-demand balance. For this reason, various power generation output prediction technologies for photovoltaic power generation facilities have been developed.

[0006] For example, a technology has been developed to predict the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility by estimating the solar radiation intensity at the target date and time from the cloud movement vectors obtained using images of the sky. However, this technology requires the installation of observation equipment at each solar power generation facility installation location. Moreover, while it can make extremely short-term predictions, such as a few seconds to a few minutes in advance, it is difficult to make predictions for tens of minutes in advance.

[0007] There is also a method for predicting power generation for several tens of minutes into the future by using a sustainability model that assumes that the current amount of power generation will remain unchanged for a while. However, the predicted value obtained by this method is simply a delayed version of past power generation, and it cannot take into account sudden changes in power generation, so there is a limit to the accuracy of the prediction.

[0008] For these reasons, there is a demand for technology that can more accurately predict the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility a predetermined time in the future, for example, a short time period from several minutes to several hours in the future, without having to install observation equipment at each installation location of the solar power generation facility.

[0009] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned problems, and aims to provide a solar power generation prediction device, a control method for a solar power generation prediction device, and a program for controlling the solar power generation prediction device that can more accurately predict the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility a predetermined time into the future, for example, a short time into the future, such as several minutes to several hours, without having to install observation equipment at each installation location of the solar power generation facility. [Means for solving the problem]

[0010] A solar power generation prediction device that solves the above problem is a solar power generation prediction device that calculates a first predicted value that predicts the amount of power generation of a solar power generation facility from the current time until one hour from now, and includes: a provisional value calculation unit that calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula; a second predicted value calculation unit that calculates a second predicted value that predicts the amount of power generation of the solar power generation facility from the current time until a second hour from now that is shorter than the first hour using a second calculation formula; a third predicted value calculation unit that calculates a third predicted value that predicts the amount of power generation of the solar power generation facility from the current time until the second hour from now based on the amount of power generation of the solar power generation facility from the one hour before the current time to the current time and the provisional value; and a first predicted value calculation unit that calculates the first predicted value by subtracting the difference between the third predicted value and the second predicted value from the provisional value.

[0011] In addition, the problems and solutions disclosed in this application will be made clear by the description in the section on the preferred embodiment of the invention and the drawings. [Effects of the Invention]

[0012] This makes it possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility in the short term, without having to install observation equipment at each installation location of the solar power generation facility. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0013] [Figure 1] 1 is a diagram illustrating an overall configuration of a solar power generation amount prediction system. [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram of the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a storage device of the photovoltaic power generation prediction device. [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a power generation amount management table. [Figure 5A] FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining a method for predicting the amount of solar power generation. [Figure 5B] FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining a method for predicting the amount of solar power generation. [Figure 6] FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram of a photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device. [Figure 7] 10 is a flowchart illustrating a control method of the solar power generation amount prediction device. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0014] At least the following matters will become apparent from the description of this specification and the accompanying drawings. Hereinafter, the present invention will be described in accordance with one embodiment thereof with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0015] ==Overall Configuration== FIG. 1 shows the overall configuration of a solar power generation amount prediction system 1000 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0016] The solar power generation prediction system 1000 is configured by connecting a solar power generation prediction device 100 and a solar power generation facility 900 so that they can communicate with each other via a network 500 such as the Internet, a LAN (Local Area Network), or a telephone network. The solar power generation prediction system 1000 according to this embodiment is also connected to a storage battery 600 so that they can communicate with each other via the network 500. In addition, the solar power generation prediction system 1000 is also connected to a weather data providing device (not shown) so that they can communicate with each other.

[0017] The photovoltaic power generation facility 900 and the storage battery 600 are interconnected to a power grid 400. The power grid 400 is, for example, a power distribution system, and is interconnected with various power facilities (not shown), such as substations and power consumption facilities of power consumers. The photovoltaic power generation facility 900 supplies power generated using solar energy to the power grid 400. The storage battery 600 charges or discharges power between it and the power grid 400 in accordance with a charge / discharge command value, which will be described later.

[0018] The solar power generation prediction device 100 acquires actual power generation values ​​from the solar power generation facility 900 at regular intervals (for example, every minute in this embodiment), and uses these actual values ​​to calculate the average power generation values ​​of the solar power generation facility 900 for every first hour (for example, every 30 minutes) and every second hour (for example, every 10 minutes).

[0019] In this embodiment, the case where the average value of the power generation amount is used is described as an example, but it is not limited to the average value, and may be, for example, a total value. In other words, an embodiment in which the average value is read as a total value in the embodiment is also an embodiment of the present invention.

[0020] Furthermore, the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates, every first hour (every 30 minutes), a provisional value of a first predicted value that predicts an average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time until the first hour ahead (30 minutes ahead), using a first calculation formula 311, which will be described later. Similarly, the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates, in addition to the provisional value, a second predicted value that predicts an average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time until the second hour ahead, which is shorter than the first hour, using a second calculation formula 312, every second hour (every 10 minutes).

[0021] Then, the solar power generation prediction device 100 calculates a third predicted value that predicts the average power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from the present time until the second hour from the present time based on the average power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from the first hour (30 minutes) before the present time until the present time and the above-mentioned provisional value.

[0022] The solar power generation prediction device 100 then corrects the provisional value by subtracting the difference between this third predicted value and the second predicted value from the provisional value, and calculates a first predicted value that predicts the average power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900.

[0023] In this way, the photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100 according to this embodiment obtains a predicted value of power generation with higher accuracy by using a plurality of predicted values ​​with different prediction periods. This aspect makes it possible to more accurately predict the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 a predetermined time ahead, for example, a short time ahead, such as several minutes to several hours, without providing observation equipment at each installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900.

[0024] Then, the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device 100 uses this first predicted value to calculate a charge / discharge command value that determines the amount of power that the storage battery 600 should charge or discharge between the storage battery 600 and the power grid 400 from the present time until the first hour (30 minutes from now).The storage battery 600 then charges or discharges power between the storage battery 600 and the power grid 400 according to this charge / discharge command value.With this configuration, it becomes possible to control the storage battery 600 using a charge / discharge command value that reflects the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 that has been calculated with higher accuracy.

[0025] The solar power generation prediction device 100 according to this embodiment calculates the provisional value, the second predicted value, and the third predicted value, and corrects these provisional values ​​to calculate the first predicted value, as will be described with reference to Figures 5A and 5B. Figure 5A shows the case of fine weather, and Figure 5B shows the case of cloudy weather.

[0026] 5A, on a day with almost no clouds, the amount of solar radiation changes relatively stably with the change in solar altitude, and the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 changes stably. Therefore, even the provisional value of the average amount of power generated for the first hour (30 minutes) predicted by the first calculation formula 311 is relatively accurate.

[0027] On the other hand, on days when sunlight shines in and out through gaps in the clouds over a short period of time, as shown in Fig. 5B, the amount of solar radiation fluctuates significantly over a short period of time, making the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 unstable. Therefore, the first calculation formula 311, which predicts the average amount of power generated every first hour (30 minutes), cannot keep up with the rapid changes in the amount of solar radiation, and the accuracy of the provisional value is unstable. Therefore, in this embodiment, the accuracy is improved by correcting the provisional value using a second predicted value, which predicts the average amount of power generated every second hour (10 minutes), which is a shorter period of time.

[0028] 5A and 5B, "B1," "B2," "B3," "B4," and "B5" represent the average values ​​of the actual power generation amount for each second hour (10 minutes). Note that "B4" and "B5" are the power generation amounts in the future from the present time, and therefore are actually unknown at this time, but are displayed for convenience of explanation.

[0029] "A1" and "A2" represent the average value of the actual power generation amount for each first hour (30 minutes). "A2" is the amount of power generation from the present time onwards, so it should be unknown, but it is displayed for the sake of convenience.

[0030] "b4" is a second predicted value obtained by predicting the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time until the second hour (10 minutes from now) using the second calculation formula 312. Various calculation formulas have been proposed for predicting the amount of photovoltaic power generation, but in this embodiment, the second calculation formula 312 calculates the second predicted value "b4" by using "B2" and "B3", which are the most recent predetermined number (for example, two) of power generation amounts.

[0031] Therefore, like "b5," the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from 10 minutes to 20 minutes later can also be predicted using the second calculation formula 312. In this case, "b5" can be calculated by substituting "B3" and "b4" into the second calculation formula 312.

[0032] On the other hand, "a2" is a provisional value obtained by predicting the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time until one hour from now (30 minutes from now) using the first calculation formula 311. Various calculation formulas for predicting the amount of photovoltaic power generation have been proposed, but in this embodiment, the first calculation formula 311 calculates the provisional value "a2" by using "A0" (not shown) and "A1," which are the most recent predetermined number (for example, two) of power generation amounts. "A0" is the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from one hour ago until 30 minutes ago, and "A1" is the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from 30 minutes ago until the present time.

[0033] 5A, the error between the provisional value "a2" and the actual value "A2" is relatively small, but the error between the provisional value "a2" and the actual value "A2" is relatively large in the case of Fig. 5B. One of the reasons for this is that, as described above, the prediction every first hour (every 30 minutes) using the first calculation formula 311 cannot handle fluctuations such as a decrease in the amount of solar radiation due to a sudden blockage of sunlight by clouds.

[0034] Therefore, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to this embodiment calculates a third predicted value as indicated by "m" in Fig. 5B. The third predicted value "m" is a value obtained by predicting the average value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 from the present time until two hours from now (10 minutes from now) based on "A1" and "a2."

[0035] In this embodiment, "A1", which is the average value of the power generation amount for the past 30 minutes, is assumed to be the value "15 (30 / 2) minutes ago", "a2", which is the average value for the next 30 minutes, is assumed to be the value "15 (30 / 2) minutes from now", and the average value of the power generation amount for the next 10 minutes is assumed to be the value "5 (10 / 2) minutes from now". Then, by linearly interpolating the first two values ​​(A1, a2), the third predicted value "m" is calculated as the value 5 minutes from now.

[0036] That is, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the third predicted value "m" by assuming that each average value is the value at the center of each time interval. This third predicted value "m" indicates the amount of power generation predicted over a long period of every first hour, and does not include changes in the amount of power generation over a short period of time, such as when the sun shines through a gap in the clouds.

[0037] Then, the solar power generation prediction device 100 calculates the first predicted value "a2'" by subtracting the difference "x" between the third predicted value indicated by "m" and the second predicted value indicated by "b4" in Fig. 5B from the provisional value "a2". The difference "x" corresponds to a component of short-term changes in power generation that is not taken into account in the long-term prediction every first hour.

[0038] This makes it possible to predict the amount of power generation that takes into account short-term events such as sudden changes in solar radiation while following the long-term trend of changes in the amount of power generation, thereby enabling more accurate prediction of the amount of power generation of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 in the short term.

[0039] ==Solar power generation forecasting device== The photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100 is a device that obtains a first predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time until the first hour ahead.

[0040] 2 shows a hardware configuration diagram of the solar power generation prediction device 100. The solar power generation prediction device 100 is configured by electronic devices such as a computer or various information processing devices having a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 110, a memory 120, a storage device 130, a recording medium reading device 140, a communication device 150, an input device 160, and an output device 170, for example.

[0041] The storage device 130 stores data such as a photovoltaic power generation prediction device control program 700 executed or processed by the photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100, a power generation amount management table 300 described later, and calculation formulas 310 (for example, a first calculation formula 311, a second calculation formula 312, and a third calculation formula 313). Fig. 3 shows how the photovoltaic power generation prediction device control program 700, the power generation amount management table 300, and the calculation formulas 310 are stored in the storage device 130.

[0042] The photovoltaic power generation prediction device control program 700, the data stored in the power generation management table 300, and the calculation formula 310 stored in the storage device 130 are read into the memory 120 and executed or processed by the CPU 110, thereby realizing various functions of the photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100. Here, the storage device 130 is, for example, a non-volatile storage device such as a hard disk drive, an SSD (Solid State Drive), or a flash memory.

[0043] The solar power generation prediction device control program 700 is a general term for programs for realizing the functions of the solar power generation prediction device 100, and includes, for example, application programs, an OS (Operating System), various libraries, etc. that run on the solar power generation prediction device 100.

[0044] 4 shows an example of the power generation amount management table 300. In the power generation amount management table 300 according to this embodiment, actual values ​​of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 are stored in chronological order, for example, every minute, in association with date and time information.

[0045] In this embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100 receives the actual power generation amount from the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 every minute, and similarly receives weather information every minute from a communicatively connected weather data providing device (not shown), and stores each of these in association with date and time information in the power generation amount management table 300. In other words, new actual power generation amount values ​​and weather information are accumulated in the power generation amount management table 300 every minute.

[0046] In addition, the solar power generation prediction device 100 calculates the average values ​​of the actual power generation amounts for the most recent 10 minutes and the most recent 30 minutes at a timing (first timing) that occurs every 30 minutes (first hour) and a timing (second timing) that occurs every 10 minutes (second hour), and records these values ​​in the power generation amount management table 300.

[0047] During the nighttime when no solar power generation is performed, the actual power generation amount and weather information may not be stored in the power generation amount management table 300. In this case, the time period during which actual power generation amount is not stored can be set appropriately, for example, from 6:00 PM to 6:00 AM the following day, but it may also be changed depending on seasonal changes in sunrise and sunset times and solar altitude.

[0048] The weather information includes sunny, cloudy, rainy, and snowy, but may also include other weather conditions such as clear skies, sleet, fog, etc. Furthermore, the weather information may also include other meteorological information such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, clearness index, and solar radiation.

[0049] Returning to FIG. 2, the recording medium reader 140 reads programs and data recorded on a recording medium 800 such as a CD-ROM or a DVD, and stores them in the storage device 130.

[0050] The communication device 150 exchanges data and programs with other computers (not shown) via a communication network such as the Internet or a LAN (Local Area Network). For example, if the above-mentioned solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 is stored in another computer, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 can download the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 from this computer. Alternatively, the communication device 150 may periodically receive actual power generation amounts and weather information from the solar power generation facility 900 or a computer that distributes weather information.

[0051] The input device 160 is an input interface such as various buttons, switches, a keyboard, a microphone, etc., that accepts commands and data input by the user.

[0052] The output device 170 is, for example, a display device such as a display, or an output user interface such as a speaker.

[0053] <Functional configuration> 6 shows a functional block diagram of the solar power generation prediction device 100 according to this embodiment. The solar power generation prediction device 100 includes the functions of a first predicted value calculation unit 101, a second predicted value calculation unit 102, a third predicted value calculation unit 103, a provisional value calculation unit 104, and a charge / discharge command value calculation unit 105. These functions are realized by the hardware shown in FIG. 2 executing or processing a solar power generation prediction device control program 700 according to this embodiment and various data.

[0054] The provisional value calculation unit 104 uses the first calculation formula 311 to calculate a provisional value of a first predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time until the first hour ahead (for example, 30 minutes ahead).

[0055] For example, if the current time is 6:30 AM, the provisional value calculation unit 104 calculates a first predicted value, which is a provisional value that predicts the average value of the amount of power generation for 30 minutes from 6:30 AM to 7:00 AM. This provisional value is corrected to the first predicted value by the first predicted value calculation unit 101, which will be described later. In the examples shown in FIGS. 5A and 5B, "a2" corresponds to the provisional value.

[0056] In this embodiment, the first calculation formula 311 calculates the provisional value "a2" by using the average value (the above-mentioned "A0" and "A1") of the most recent predetermined number (for example, two) of power generation amounts calculated every first hour, but it is also possible to calculate the provisional value using other data such as the amount of solar radiation, temperature, date and time information, etc.

[0057] The second predicted value calculation unit 102 calculates a second predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time until a second time ahead (for example, 10 minutes ahead) using the second calculation formula 312.

[0058] Similar to the provisional value calculation unit 104, when the current time is, for example, 6:30 a.m., the second predicted value calculation unit 102 calculates a second predicted value that predicts the average value of the amount of power generation for 10 minutes from 6:30 a.m. to 6:40 a.m. In the examples shown in Figures 5A and 5B, "b4" corresponds to the second predicted value.

[0059] In this embodiment, the second calculation formula 312 calculates the second predicted value "b4" by using the average value of a predetermined number of recent past power generation amounts (e.g., two) calculated every second hour, but the second predicted value may also be calculated using other data such as solar radiation, temperature, date and time information, etc.

[0060] The third predicted value calculation unit 103 calculates a third predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time until the second hour (10 minutes from now) based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the first hour (30 minutes) before the present time ("A1" in the example shown in FIGS. 5A and 5B) until the present time and the provisional value ("a2"). For example, if the present time is 6:30 AM, the third predicted value calculation unit 103 calculates a third predicted value that predicts the average amount of power generated for 10 minutes from 6:30 AM to 6:40 AM. In the example shown in FIG. 5B, "m" corresponds to the third predicted value.

[0061] In this embodiment, the average value ("A1") of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from one hour (30 minutes) before the present time to the present time is calculated from the actual value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900. In other words, it is the average value of the actual values, not the average value of the predicted values. This makes it possible to calculate the third predicted value "m" with higher accuracy.

[0062] In addition, the third predicted value calculation unit 103 calculates the third predicted value by apportioning the power generation amount ("A1") of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the first hour (30 minutes) before the present time to the present time and the provisional value ("a2") in a ratio determined from the length of the first hour (30 minutes) and the length of the second hour (10 minutes).

[0063] Specifically, the third predicted value calculation unit 103 assumes that "A1," which is the average value of the amount of power generated in the past first hour (past 30 minutes), is the value "at the time of '1 hour / 2' minutes ago (15 minutes ago)," assumes that "a2," which is the average value from now (the present time) to the first hour (30 minutes), is the value "at the time of '1 hour / 2' minutes from now (15 minutes from now)," and assumes that the average value of the amount of power generated in the second hour (10 minutes) from now (the present time) is the value "at the time of '2 hour / 2' minutes from now (5 minutes from now)," and then calculates the third predicted value "m" as the value 5 minutes from now (the present time) by dividing the former two values ​​(A1, a2) proportionally according to the ratio determined for each time ('20 minutes from 15 minutes ago to 5 minutes from now': '10 minutes from 5 minutes from now to 15 minutes from now'). Expressed as an equation, this is expressed as the following equation (1):

[0064] (m-A1):(a2-m)=20 minutes:10 minutes …(1) In this manner, it is possible to estimate the power generation amount for the second hour ahead, which is shorter than the first hour, from the trend of the change (change from "A1" to "a2") when the change in the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 is captured every first hour.

[0065] The first predicted value calculation unit 101 calculates the difference between the third predicted value and the second predicted value ("x" shown in FIG. 5B), and calculates the first predicted value "a2'" by subtracting this difference "x" from the provisional value "a2" described above.

[0066] In this manner, the difference between the third predicted value derived from the first calculation formula 311 that predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 in a first time period (long period) and the second predicted value derived from the second calculation formula 312 that predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 in a second time period (short period) is extracted as the difference "x", and by subtracting this difference "x" from the provisional value calculated using the first calculation formula 311, it is possible to remove the error inherent in the provisional value obtained by the long-period prediction.

[0067] Furthermore, if the difference "x" between the third predicted value and the second predicted value is greater than a predetermined threshold "w", the first predicted value calculation unit 101 may subtract this difference "x" from the provisional value "a2" to calculate the first predicted value "a2'", and if the difference "x" is equal to or less than the threshold "w", the provisional value "a2" may be calculated as the first predicted value as is.

[0068] This aspect makes it possible to prevent the error from increasing when the provisional value is corrected in cases where the error in the provisional value calculated using the first calculation formula 311 is small and correction is not necessary.

[0069] The charge / discharge command value calculation unit 105 calculates a charge / discharge command value that determines the amount of power that the storage battery 600 connected to the power grid 400 should charge or discharge from the present time until the first hour (30 minutes from now) using a third calculation formula 313.

[0070] Various calculation formulas have been proposed for calculating the charge / discharge amount of the storage battery 600, but in this embodiment, the third calculation formula 313 calculates a charge / discharge command value using the current state of charge of the storage battery 600 and a predicted value of power demand from the current time to the first hour ahead (30 minutes ahead) in the power system 400. In this manner, it becomes possible to store power in the storage battery 600 in advance so that there is no shortage of power to be supplied to a power consumption device (not shown) connected to the power system 400.

[0071] The third calculation formula 313 according to this embodiment further uses the difference "x" between the second predicted value and the third predicted value described above to correct the value of the charge / discharge command value and output it.

[0072] For example, if the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 increases compared to a prior forecast while the storage battery 600 is being charged, resulting in a positive difference "x," the charge / discharge command value calculation unit 105 increases the charge / discharge command value by the difference "x." This increases the amount of charge to the storage battery 600, thereby stabilizing the supply and demand balance in the power grid 400.

[0073] Similarly, when the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 decreases from a prior forecast while the storage battery 600 is being charged, resulting in a negative difference "x," the charge / discharge command value calculation unit 105 decreases the charge / discharge command value by the difference "x." This reduces the amount of charge to the storage battery 600, thereby stabilizing the supply and demand balance in the power grid 400.

[0074] Furthermore, when the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 increases more than expected while the storage battery 600 is discharging, resulting in a positive difference "x," the charge / discharge command value calculation unit 105 reduces the charge / discharge command value by the difference "x." This reduces the amount of power discharged by the storage battery 600, making it possible to effectively use the power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 for consumption and stabilizing the supply and demand balance in the power grid 400.

[0075] Furthermore, when the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 decreases compared to a prior forecast while the storage battery 600 is discharging, resulting in a negative difference "x," the charge / discharge command value calculation unit 105 increases the charge / discharge command value by the difference "x." This increases the amount of power discharged from the storage battery 600, thereby stabilizing the supply and demand balance of the power grid 400. Alternatively, by decreasing the charge / discharge command value by the difference "x" and reducing the amount of power discharged from the storage battery 600, it becomes possible to prevent the storage battery 600 from becoming insufficiently charged. In this case, the supply and demand balance of the power grid 400 is maintained by increasing the amount of power generated by a controllable power plant (such as a thermal power plant or a hydroelectric power plant) (not shown) that can control the amount of power supplied to the power grid 400.

[0076] The solar power generation prediction device 100 periodically acquires information indicating the state of the storage battery 600, such as the charge rate of the storage battery 600 and whether the storage battery 600 is charging or discharging, from the storage battery 600, and also acquires the actual value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility from the solar power generation facility 900.

[0077] This embodiment makes it possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 in the short term ahead, without providing observation equipment at each installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900.

[0078] ==Processing flow== Next, a control method for the solar power generation prediction device 100 according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 7. Fig. 7 is a flowchart showing the procedure, and these steps are realized by the CPU 110 executing a solar power generation prediction device control program 700 stored in the storage device 130 of the solar power generation prediction device 100.

[0079] First, when the second timing (10-minute average calculation timing) arrives, which occurs every second hour (for example, every 10 minutes) (S1000), the solar power generation prediction device 100 refers to the power generation management table 300, calculates the average power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the second hour before the second timing to the second timing, and then calculates a second predicted value using the second calculation formula 312 (S1010).

[0080] In the example shown in FIG. 5B, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the average value of the power generation amount indicated by "B3", and then calculates the second predicted value indicated by "b4" using the second calculation formula 312.

[0081] Next, when the first timing (30-minute average calculation timing) arrives, which occurs every first hour (for example, every 30 minutes) (S1020), the solar power generation prediction device 100 refers to the power generation management table 300, calculates the average power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the first hour before the first timing to the first timing, and then calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value using the first calculation formula 311 (S1030).

[0082] In the example shown in FIG. 5B, the solar power generation amount predicting apparatus 100 calculates an average value of the power generation amount indicated by "A1", and then calculates a provisional value indicated by "a2" using the first calculation formula 311.

[0083] Then, the photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100 calculates a third predicted value that predicts the average value of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from one hour before the present time to the present time based on the average value ("A1") of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from one hour before the present time to the present time and the provisional value ("a2") (S1040). The third predicted value corresponds to "m" shown in Fig. 5B.

[0084] Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the first predicted value by subtracting the difference between this third predicted value ("m") and the second predicted value ("b4") from the provisional value ("a2") (S1050). The difference corresponds to "x" shown in Fig. 5B, and the first predicted value corresponds to "a2'".

[0085] This embodiment makes it possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 in the short term ahead, without providing observation equipment at each installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900.

[0086] Then, the solar power generation prediction device 100 uses the difference and the third calculation formula 313 to calculate a charge / discharge command value that determines the amount of power that the storage battery 600 should charge or discharge from the present time until the first hour (30 minutes) from now (S1060).

[0087] In this manner, the charge / discharge amount of the storage battery 600 can be controlled with higher precision.

[0088] The solar power generation amount prediction device 100, the control method and program for the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to this embodiment have been described above. According to the solar power generation amount prediction device 100, the control method and program for the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to this embodiment, it is possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 in the short future without installing observation equipment at each installation location of the solar power generation facility 900.

[0089] The above-described embodiment is intended to facilitate understanding of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the present invention. The present invention may be modified or improved without departing from the spirit thereof, and equivalents thereof are also included in the present invention.

[0090] For example, in the above embodiment, the solar power generation prediction device 100 calculated the average value (such as "A1") of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from the actual value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 for each first hour and each second hour, but it may also be calculated from the predicted value.

[0091] Furthermore, although the power system 400 has been described as a power distribution system, it may also be a power transmission system, a microgrid connected to a power system, or a microgrid independent of a power system. [Explanation of symbols]

[0092] 100 Photovoltaic power generation forecasting device 101 First predicted value calculation unit 102 Second predicted value calculation unit 103 Third predicted value calculation unit 104 Provisional Value Calculation Unit 105 Charge / discharge command value calculation unit 110 CPU 120 memory 130 Storage device 140 Recording medium reader 150 Communication equipment 160 Input Devices 170 Output Device 300 Power Generation Management Table 310 Calculation Formula 311 First calculation formula 312 Second calculation formula 313 Third Calculation Formula 400 Power system 500 Network 600 storage battery 700 Photovoltaic power generation forecasting device control program 800 Recording Media 900 Solar power generation facilities 1000 Solar power generation forecasting system

Claims

1. A photovoltaic power generation prediction device that calculates a first predicted value that predicts a power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generation facility from a current time point to a first time point, a provisional value calculation unit that calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula; a second predicted value calculation unit that calculates, using a second calculation formula, a second predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the present time until a second time later that is shorter than the first time; a third predicted value calculation unit that calculates a third predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the present time until the second time ahead, based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the first hour before the present time until the present time and the provisional value; a first predicted value calculation unit that calculates the first predicted value by subtracting a difference between the third predicted value and the second predicted value from the provisional value; A solar power generation prediction device comprising:

2. The solar power generation prediction device according to claim 1, The third predicted value calculation unit a solar power generation amount prediction device that calculates the third predicted value by apportioning the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility from the first hour before the present time to the present time and the provisional value in a ratio determined from the length of the first time period and the length of the second time period.

3. The solar power generation prediction device according to claim 1 or 2, The solar power generation amount prediction device, wherein the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility from the first hour before the present time to the present time is a value calculated from an actual value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility.

4. The solar power generation prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, The first predicted value calculation unit When a difference between the third predicted value and the second predicted value is greater than a predetermined threshold, the first predicted value is calculated by subtracting the difference from the provisional value, and when the difference is equal to or less than the threshold, the provisional value is calculated as the first predicted value.

5. The solar power generation prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, a charge / discharge command value calculation unit that uses the difference to calculate a charge / discharge command value that determines an amount of power to be charged or discharged from a storage battery connected to a power grid to which power generated by the solar power generation facility is supplied during the first time period from the present time; and The solar power generation prediction device further comprises:

6. A control method for a photovoltaic power generation prediction device that calculates a first predicted value that predicts a power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generation facility from a current time point to a first time point, The solar power generation prediction device calculating a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula; calculating a second predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the present time until a second time later that is shorter than the first time using a second calculation formula; calculating a third predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the present time until the second time ahead based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the first hour before the present time until the present time and the provisional value; calculating the first predicted value by subtracting a difference between the third predicted value and the second predicted value from the provisional value; A method for controlling a solar power generation prediction device.

7. A program for calculating a first predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by a photovoltaic power generation facility from the present time to a first time ahead, On the computer, calculating a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula; calculating, using a second calculation formula, a second predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the present time until a second time later that is shorter than the first time; calculating a third predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the present time until the second time ahead, based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the first hour before the present time until the present time and the provisional value; calculating the first predicted value by subtracting a difference between the third predicted value and the second predicted value from the provisional value; A program to execute.

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