Photovoltaic power generation prediction device, and control method and program for photovoltaic power generation prediction device

Abstract

To more accurately predict the amount of generated power a short time later from now without providing an observation facility for each installation location of a photovoltaic power generation facility.SOLUTION: A photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device determines a first predicted value obtained by predicting the amount of generated power from the present time until a first time point a first time later from the present time, and the device calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value by using a first calculation formula, from the present time until a third time point a third time later from the present time, including second times obtained by equally dividing the first time as a unit, calculates a second predicted value obtained by predicting the amount of generated power for every second time by using a second calculation formula, by using a first graph representing the tendency of a change in the amount of generated power for every first time, calculates a third predicted value obtained by predicting the amount of generated power from a fifth time point the second time earlier than the third time point until the third time point, by using a second graph representing the tendency of a change in the amount of generated power for every second time, calculates a fourth predicted value obtained by predicting the amount of generated power from the fifth time point until the third time point, and calculates the first predicted value by subtracting the difference between the third and fourth predicted values from the provisional value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 5B

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device, a control method for a photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] In order to provide a stable supply of high-quality electricity, electric power companies control the output of power generators in various locations on a daily basis to balance the supply and demand of electricity.

[0003] For example, electric power companies use generator operation plans determined based on power demand forecasts created up until the previous day to combine multiple power demand forecasts for the next few minutes to tens of minutes or even hours each day to perform economical load dispatching control (EDC) and load frequency control (LFC) to precisely control generator output (see, for example, Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2013-062953 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] However, in recent years, the rapid spread of photovoltaic power generation facilities, whose power output varies greatly depending on the amount of solar radiation, has begun to affect the control of the supply-demand balance. For this reason, various power generation output prediction technologies for photovoltaic power generation facilities have been developed.

[0006] For example, a technology has been developed to predict the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility by estimating the solar radiation intensity at the target date and time from the cloud movement vectors obtained using images of the sky. However, this technology requires the installation of observation equipment at each solar power generation facility installation location. Moreover, while it can make extremely short-term predictions, such as a few seconds to a few minutes in advance, it is difficult to make predictions for tens of minutes in advance.

[0007] There is also a method for predicting power generation for several tens of minutes into the future by using a sustainability model that assumes that the current amount of power generation will remain unchanged for a while. However, the predicted value obtained by this method is simply a delayed version of past power generation, and it cannot take into account sudden changes in power generation, so there is a limit to the accuracy of the prediction.

[0008] For these reasons, there is a demand for technology that can more accurately predict the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility a predetermined time in the future, for example, a short time period from several minutes to several hours in the future, without having to install observation equipment at each installation location of the solar power generation facility.

[0009] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned problems, and aims to provide a solar power generation prediction device, a control method for a solar power generation prediction device, and a program for controlling the solar power generation prediction device that can more accurately predict the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility a predetermined time into the future, for example, a short time into the future, such as several minutes to several hours, without having to install observation equipment at each installation location of the solar power generation facility. [Means for solving the problem]

[0010] A photovoltaic power generation prediction device that solves the above problem is a photovoltaic power generation prediction device that obtains a first predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by a photovoltaic power generation facility from the current time to a first time point that is one hour ahead, and includes a provisional value calculation unit that calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula; a second predicted value calculation unit that calculates, using a second calculation formula, one or more second predicted values ​​that predict the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility for each second hour from the current time to a third time point that is three hours ahead and that is shorter than the first hour, with the second hour being a unit obtained by equally dividing the first hour; a first graph creation unit that creates a first graph on a two-dimensional coordinate plane based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility for the first hour from a fourth time point that is one hour before the current time to the current time and the provisional value; a second graph creation unit that creates a second graph on the two-dimensional coordinate plane, the second graph representing a trend of changes in the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility, based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility for each second hour from a fifth time point before the third time point to the present time and the one or more second predicted values ​​from the present time to the third time point; a third predicted value calculation unit that calculates a third predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from a fifth time point that is two hours before the third time point to the third time point, using the first graph; a fourth predicted value calculation unit that calculates a fourth predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the fifth time point to the third time point, using the second graph; a difference calculation unit that calculates the difference between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value; and a first predicted value calculation unit that calculates the first predicted value by subtracting the difference from the provisional value.

[0011] In addition, the problems and solutions disclosed in this application will be made clear by the description in the section on the preferred embodiment of the invention and the drawings. [Effects of the Invention]

[0012] This makes it possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by a solar power generation facility in the short term, without having to install observation equipment at each installation location of the solar power generation facility. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0013] [Figure 1] 1 is a diagram illustrating an overall configuration of a solar power generation amount prediction system. [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram of the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a storage device of the photovoltaic power generation prediction device. [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a power generation amount management table. [Figure 5A] FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining a method for predicting the amount of solar power generation. [Figure 5B] FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining a method for predicting the amount of solar power generation. [Figure 5C] FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining a method for predicting the amount of solar power generation. [Figure 6] FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram of a photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device. [Figure 7] 10 is a flowchart illustrating a control method of the solar power generation amount prediction device. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0014] At least the following matters will become apparent from the description of this specification and the accompanying drawings. Hereinafter, the present invention will be described in accordance with one embodiment thereof with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0015] ==Overall Configuration== FIG. 1 shows the overall configuration of a solar power generation amount prediction system 1000 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0016] The solar power generation prediction system 1000 is configured by connecting a solar power generation prediction device 100 and a solar power generation facility 900 so that they can communicate with each other via a network 500 such as the Internet, a LAN (Local Area Network), or a telephone network. The solar power generation prediction system 1000 according to this embodiment is also connected to a storage battery 600 so that they can communicate with each other via the network 500. In addition, the solar power generation prediction system 1000 is also connected to a weather data providing device (not shown) so that they can communicate with each other.

[0017] The photovoltaic power generation facility 900 and the storage battery 600 are interconnected to a power grid 400. The power grid 400 is, for example, a power distribution system, and is interconnected with various power facilities (not shown), such as substations and power consumption facilities of power consumers. The photovoltaic power generation facility 900 supplies power generated using solar energy to the power grid 400. The storage battery 600 charges or discharges power between it and the power grid 400 in accordance with a charge / discharge command value, which will be described later.

[0018] The solar power generation prediction device 100 acquires actual power generation values ​​from the solar power generation facility 900 at regular intervals (for example, every minute), and uses these actual values ​​to calculate the average power generation values ​​of the solar power generation facility 900 for each first hour (for example, every 30 minutes) and for each second hour (for example, every 10 minutes) that is an equal division of the first hour.

[0019] In this embodiment, the case where the average value of the power generation amount is used is described as an example, but it is not limited to the average value, and may be, for example, a total value. In other words, an embodiment in which the average value is read as a total value in the embodiment is also an embodiment of the present invention.

[0020] In addition, the solar power generation prediction device 100 calculates, every first hour (every 30 minutes), a provisional value of a first predicted value that predicts the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the present time to a first time point one hour in the future (30 minutes in the future), using a first calculation formula 311 described later.

[0021] On the other hand, in addition to the above provisional values, the solar power generation prediction device 100 calculates, using a second calculation formula 312, one or more second predicted values ​​that predict the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 every second hour (every 10 minutes) from the present time to a third time point that is the third hour (10 minutes or 20 minutes) in units of the second hour (10 minutes) and is shorter than the first hour.

[0022] The solar power generation prediction device 100 then creates a first graph (described later) that shows the trend of change in the average power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 every first hour, and uses this first graph to calculate a third predicted value that predicts the average power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from a fifth point in time (the present time or 10 minutes later), which is two hours (10 minutes earlier) before the third point in time (10 minutes or 20 minutes later from the present time), to the third point in time (10 minutes or 20 minutes later).

[0023] Similarly, the solar power generation prediction device 100 creates a second graph (described later) that shows the trend of change in the average power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 every second hour, and uses this second graph to calculate a fourth predicted value that predicts the average power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from the fifth point in time (the present time or 10 minutes from now) to the third point in time (10 minutes from now or 20 minutes from now).

[0024] The solar power generation prediction device 100 then calculates the difference "x" between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value, and subtracts this difference "x" from the provisional value to calculate a first predicted value that predicts the average power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from the present time to the first time point one hour from now (30 minutes from now).

[0025] In this way, the photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100 according to this embodiment obtains a prediction value with higher accuracy by using a plurality of prediction values ​​with different prediction periods. This aspect makes it possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 a predetermined time ahead, for example, a short time ahead, such as several minutes to several hours, without providing observation equipment at each installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900.

[0026] Then, the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device 100 uses this first predicted value to calculate a charge / discharge command value that determines the amount of power that the storage battery 600 should charge or discharge between the storage battery 600 and the power grid 400 from the present time until the first hour (30 minutes from now).The storage battery 600 then charges or discharges power between the storage battery 600 and the power grid 400 according to this charge / discharge command value.With this configuration, it becomes possible to control the storage battery 600 using a charge / discharge command value that reflects the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 that has been calculated with higher accuracy.

[0027] The manner in which the solar power generation prediction device 100 according to this embodiment calculates the provisional value, the second predicted value, the third predicted value, and the fourth predicted value, the manner in which the first graph and the second graph are created, and the manner in which the first predicted value is calculated by correcting the provisional value using the difference "x" will be described with reference to FIGS. 5A to 5C.

[0028] Fig. 5A shows the case when the weather is fine, and Fig. 5B and Fig. 5C show the case when the weather is cloudy. Fig. 5B shows an example where the present time is the fifth time point and 10 minutes from the present time point is the third time point, and Fig. 5C shows an example where 10 minutes from the present time point is the fifth time point and 20 minutes from the present time point is the third time point.

[0029] 5A, the amount of solar radiation changes relatively stably with the change in the solar altitude, and the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 changes stably. Therefore, even the provisional value of the average amount of power generated for the first hour (30 minutes) predicted by the first calculation formula 311 is relatively accurate.

[0030] On the other hand, on days when sunlight shines through gaps in the clouds and is then blocked within a short period of time, as shown in Figures 5B and 5C, the amount of solar radiation fluctuates significantly within a short period of time, making the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 unstable. Therefore, the first calculation formula 311, which predicts the average amount of power generation every first hour (30 minutes), cannot keep up with the rapid changes in the amount of solar radiation, and the accuracy of the provisional value is unstable. Therefore, in this embodiment, the accuracy is improved by correcting the provisional value using a second predicted value, which predicts the average amount of power generation every second hour (10 minutes), which is a shorter period of time.

[0031] 5A to 5C, "B1," "B2," "B3," "B4," and "B5" represent the average values ​​of the actual power generation amount for each second hour (10 minutes). Note that "B4" and "B5" are the power generation amounts in the future from the present time, and therefore are actually unknown at this time, but are displayed for convenience of explanation.

[0032] "A1" and "A2" represent the average value of the actual power generation amount for each first hour (30 minutes). "A2" is the amount of power generation from the present time onwards, so it is actually unknown, but is displayed for the sake of convenience.

[0033] "b4" is a second predicted value obtained by predicting the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time to the second hour ahead (10 minutes ahead) using the second calculation formula 312. "b5" is a second predicted value obtained by predicting the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the second hour ahead (10 minutes ahead from the present time) to another second hour ahead (20 minutes ahead from the present time) using the second calculation formula 312.

[0034] Various calculation formulas have been proposed for predicting the amount of solar power generation. In this embodiment, the second calculation formula 312 calculates the second predicted values ​​"b4" and "b5" by using a predetermined number of the most recent (e.g., two) amounts of power generation. For example, "b4" is calculated by using the most recent two amounts of power generation, "B2" and "B3." Furthermore, "b5" is calculated by using the most recent two amounts of power generation, "B3" and "b4."

[0035] On the other hand, "a2" is a provisional value obtained by predicting the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time until one hour from now (30 minutes from now) using the first calculation formula 311. Various calculation formulas for predicting the amount of photovoltaic power generation have been proposed, but in this embodiment, the first calculation formula 311 calculates the provisional value "a2" by using "A0" (not shown) and "A1," which are the most recent predetermined number (e.g., two) of power generation amounts. "A0" is the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from one hour ago to 30 minutes ago (the fourth time point), and "A1" is the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from 30 minutes ago (the fourth time point) until the present time.

[0036] 5A, the error between the provisional value "a2" and the actual value "A2" is relatively small, but the error between the provisional value "a2" and the actual value "A2" is relatively large in the cases of Figures 5B and 5C. One of the reasons for this is that, as described above, the prediction every first hour (every 30 minutes) using the first calculation formula 311 cannot handle fluctuations such as a decrease in the amount of solar radiation due to a sudden blockage of sunlight by clouds.

[0037] Therefore, the solar power generation prediction device 100 of this embodiment creates a first graph that shows the trend of change in the average power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 every first hour, and a second graph that shows the trend of change every second hour, and uses these graphs to predict the average power generation amount (first predicted value) of the solar power generation facility 900 from the present time to a first time point that is one hour from now (30 minutes from now).

[0038] The first graph is a line indicated by "H" in Fig. 5B, which connects two points on a two-dimensional coordinate plane determined by assuming that the average value "A1" of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 in the first hour (30 minutes) from the fourth time point, which is one hour (30 minutes) before the present time, and the provisional value "a2" are the values ​​at the center of each time interval. In Fig. 5B, these two points are labeled "A1" and "a2."

[0039] In this embodiment, "A1", which is the average power generation amount for the past 30 minutes, is assumed to be the value "15 (30 / 2) minutes ago", and "a2", which is the average power generation amount for the next 30 minutes, is assumed to be the value "15 (30 / 2) minutes from now".

[0040] The second graph is a straight line indicated by "J" in Figure 5B, and is a straight line (for example, a straight line with the smallest sum of distances) determined based on the sum of distances from multiple points (four points) on a two-dimensional coordinate plane, which is determined by assuming that the average values ​​("B1", "B2", "B3") of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 every second hour (every 10 minutes) from the fourth point in time to the present time and the second predicted value ("b4") from the present time to the third point in time (10 minutes later) are the values ​​at the center of each time interval.

[0041] The second graph is a straight line indicated by "I" in the example shown in Figure 5C, and is a straight line (for example, a straight line with the smallest sum of distances) determined based on the sum of distances from multiple points (five points) on a two-dimensional coordinate plane, which is determined by assuming that the average values ​​("B1", "B2", "B3") of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 every second hour (every 10 minutes) from the fourth time point to the present time and the second predicted values ​​("b4", "b5") from the present time to the third time point (20 minutes later) are the values ​​at the center of each time interval.

[0042] Then, the solar power generation prediction device 100 first uses the first graph (H) to calculate a third predicted value that predicts the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from the fifth point in time (the present time or 10 minutes from now) to the third point in time (10 minutes from now or 20 minutes from now).

[0043] In the case of Figure 5B, the fifth time point is the present time, the third time point is 10 minutes from now, and the third predicted value is the value indicated by point "P" on the first graph. Point "P" is the value of the first graph (line H) at the center point (5 minutes from now) of the time interval from the fifth time point to the third time point (from the present time to 10 minutes from now).

[0044] In the case of Figure 5C, the fifth time point is 10 minutes later, the third time point is 20 minutes later, and the third predicted value is similarly the value indicated by point "P" on the first graph. Point "P" is the value of the first graph (line H) at the midpoint (15 minutes later) of the time interval from the fifth time point to the third time point.

[0045] Furthermore, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates a fourth predicted value that predicts the average value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 from the fifth time point to the third time point using the second graph (J, I).

[0046] In the case of Figure 5B, the fifth time point is the present time, the third time point is 10 minutes from now, and the fourth predicted value is the value indicated by point "Q" on the second graph (J). Point "Q" is the value of the second graph (line J) at the central time point (5 minutes from now) of the time interval from the fifth time point to the third time point (from the present time to 10 minutes from now).

[0047] In the case of Figure 5C, the fifth time point is 10 minutes later, the third time point is 20 minutes later, and the fourth predicted value is similarly the value indicated by point "Q" on the second graph (I). Point "Q" is the value of the second graph (line I) at the midpoint (15 minutes later) of the time interval from the fifth time point to the third time point.

[0048] Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the difference "x" between the third predicted value (P) and the fourth predicted value (Q).

[0049] Then, the solar power generation amount prediction apparatus 100 calculates the first predicted value by subtracting the difference "x" from the provisional value "a2".

[0050] In Figure 5B, the first predicted value is labeled "a2'." In the example shown in Figure 5C, point "Q" coincides with the first predicted value.

[0051] This makes it possible to predict the amount of power generation that takes into account short-term events such as sudden changes in solar radiation while following the long-term trend of changes in the amount of power generation, thereby enabling more accurate prediction of the amount of power generation of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 in the short term.

[0052] ==Solar power generation forecasting device== The photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100 is a device that obtains a first predicted value that predicts the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time until the first hour ahead.

[0053] 2 shows a hardware configuration diagram of the solar power generation prediction device 100. The solar power generation prediction device 100 is configured by electronic devices such as a computer or various information processing devices having a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 110, a memory 120, a storage device 130, a recording medium reading device 140, a communication device 150, an input device 160, and an output device 170, for example.

[0054] The storage device 130 stores data such as a photovoltaic power generation prediction device control program 700 executed or processed by the photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100, a power generation amount management table 300 described later, and calculation formulas 310 (for example, a first calculation formula 311, a second calculation formula 312, and a third calculation formula 313). Fig. 3 shows how the photovoltaic power generation prediction device control program 700, the power generation amount management table 300, and the calculation formulas 310 are stored in the storage device 130.

[0055] The photovoltaic power generation prediction device control program 700, the data stored in the power generation management table 300, and the calculation formula 310 stored in the storage device 130 are read into the memory 120 and executed or processed by the CPU 110, thereby realizing various functions of the photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100. Here, the storage device 130 is, for example, a non-volatile storage device such as a hard disk drive, an SSD (Solid State Drive), or a flash memory.

[0056] The solar power generation prediction device control program 700 is a general term for programs for realizing the functions of the solar power generation prediction device 100, and includes, for example, application programs, an OS (Operating System), various libraries, etc. that run on the solar power generation prediction device 100.

[0057] 4 shows an example of the power generation amount management table 300. In the power generation amount management table 300 according to this embodiment, actual values ​​of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 are stored in chronological order, for example, every minute, in association with date and time information.

[0058] In this embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100 receives the actual power generation amount from the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 every minute, and similarly receives weather information every minute from a communicatively connected weather data providing device (not shown), and stores each of these in association with date and time information in the power generation amount management table 300. In other words, new actual power generation amount values ​​and weather information are accumulated in the power generation amount management table 300 every minute.

[0059] In addition, the solar power generation prediction device 100 calculates the average values ​​of the actual power generation amounts for the most recent 10 minutes and the most recent 30 minutes at a timing (first timing) that occurs every 30 minutes (first hour) and a timing (second timing) that occurs every 10 minutes (second hour), and records these values ​​in the power generation amount management table 300.

[0060] During the nighttime when no solar power generation is performed, the actual power generation amount and weather information may not be stored in the power generation amount management table 300. In this case, the time period during which actual power generation amount is not stored can be set appropriately, for example, from 6:00 PM to 6:00 AM the following day, but it may also be changed depending on seasonal changes in sunrise and sunset times and solar altitude.

[0061] The weather information includes sunny, cloudy, rainy, and snowy, but may also include other weather conditions such as clear skies, sleet, fog, etc. Furthermore, the weather information may also include other meteorological information such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, clearness index, and solar radiation.

[0062] Returning to FIG. 2, the recording medium reader 140 reads programs and data recorded on a recording medium 800 such as a CD-ROM or a DVD, and stores them in the storage device 130.

[0063] The communication device 150 exchanges data and programs with other computers (not shown) via a communication network such as the Internet or a LAN (Local Area Network). For example, if the above-mentioned solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 is stored in another computer, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 can download the solar power generation amount prediction device control program 700 from this computer. Alternatively, the communication device 150 may periodically receive actual power generation amounts and weather information from the solar power generation facility 900 or a computer that distributes weather information.

[0064] The input device 160 is an input interface such as various buttons, switches, a keyboard, a microphone, etc., that accepts commands and data input by the user.

[0065] The output device 170 is, for example, a display device such as a display, or an output user interface such as a speaker.

[0066] <Functional configuration> 6 shows a functional block diagram of a photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100 according to this embodiment. The photovoltaic power generation prediction device 100 includes functions of a first predicted value calculation unit 101, a second predicted value calculation unit 102, a third predicted value calculation unit 103, a fourth predicted value calculation unit 104, a first graph creation unit 105, a second graph creation unit 106, a difference calculation unit 107, a provisional value calculation unit 108, and a charge / discharge command value calculation unit 109. These functions are realized by the hardware shown in FIG. 2 executing or processing a photovoltaic power generation prediction device control program 700 according to this embodiment and various data.

[0067] The provisional value calculation unit 108 uses the first calculation formula 311 to calculate a provisional value of a first predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the present time until the first hour ahead (for example, 30 minutes ahead).

[0068] For example, if the current time is 6:30 AM, the provisional value calculation unit 108 calculates a first predicted value, which is a provisional value that predicts the average value of the amount of power generation for 30 minutes from 6:30 AM to 7:00 AM. This provisional value is corrected to the first predicted value by the first predicted value calculation unit 101, which will be described later. In the examples shown in FIGS. 5A to 5C, "a2" corresponds to the provisional value.

[0069] In this embodiment, the first calculation formula 311 calculates the provisional value "a2" by using the average value (the above-mentioned "A0" and "A1") of the most recent predetermined number (for example, two) of power generation amounts calculated every first hour, but it is also possible to calculate the provisional value using other data such as the amount of solar radiation, temperature, date and time information, etc.

[0070] The second predicted value calculation unit 102 uses a second calculation formula 312 to calculate one or more second predicted values ​​that predict the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 for each second hour (every 10 minutes) from the present time to a third time point that is a third hour in the future (for example, 10 minutes or 20 minutes in the future) that is shorter than the first hour, with the second hour (for example, 10 minutes) being the unit of equal division of the first hour (for example, 30 minutes).

[0071] The first, second, and third times can be times specified by the user, for example. Here, the first time is 30 minutes, the second time is 10 minutes, and the third time is 10 or 20 minutes (examples shown in Figures 5B and 5C).

[0072] For example, when the current time is 6:30 AM, the second predicted value calculation unit 102 calculates a second predicted value that predicts the average value of the amount of power generation for 10 minutes from 6:30 AM to 6:40 AM. In the example shown in FIG. 5B, "b4" corresponds to the second predicted value. Note that when the third period is 20 minutes, "b4" and "b5" correspond to the second predicted values, as in the example shown in FIG. 5C.

[0073] In this embodiment, the second calculation formula 312 calculates the second predicted value by using the average value of a predetermined number of recent past power generation amounts (e.g., two) calculated every second hour, but it may also be configured to calculate a provisional value using other data such as solar radiation, temperature, date and time information, etc.

[0074] The first graph creation unit 105 creates a first graph (H) on a two-dimensional coordinate plane, which represents the trend of changes in the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900, based on the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 in the first hour, "A1", from the fourth time point, which is one hour (30 minutes) before the current time, to the current time, and the provisional value "a2".

[0075] In this embodiment, the first graph creation unit 105 creates, as the first graph, a straight line connecting two points on the two-dimensional coordinate plane, which is determined by assuming that the average value and provisional value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 in the first hour from the fourth time point to the present time are the values ​​at the center time point of each time interval (15 minutes before, 15 minutes after).

[0076] In this embodiment, the average value ("A1") of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the fourth time point to the present time is calculated from the actual value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900. In other words, it is not an average value of predicted values ​​but an average value of actual values. This makes it possible to more accurately calculate the third predicted value "P" described below.

[0077] The second graph creation unit 106 creates a second graph (J or I) on a two-dimensional coordinate plane that represents the trend of changes in the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900, based on the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 every second hour (every 10 minutes) from the fourth time point to the present time ("B1," "B2," "B3") and one or more second predicted values ​​("b4," or "b4," "b5") from the present time to the third time point (10 minutes or 20 minutes later).

[0078] In this embodiment, the second graph creation unit 106 creates, as the second graph (J or I), a straight line that minimizes the sum of the distances from multiple points on a two-dimensional coordinate plane determined by assuming that the average value ("B1", "B2", "B3") of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 for each second hour (every 10 minutes) from the fourth time point to the present time, and one or more second predicted values ​​("b4", or "b4", "b5") from the present time point to the third time point are the values ​​at the center of each time interval ("25 minutes ago, 15 minutes ago, 5 minutes ago, 5 minutes later", or "25 minutes ago, 15 minutes ago, 5 minutes ago, 5 minutes later, 15 minutes later").

[0079] The second graph can be obtained as a regression line using, for example, the least squares method. Of course, the second graph is not limited to a straight line and may include a curve expressed by a polynomial of degree two or higher. Alternatively, the second graph may be a broken line made up of multiple straight lines.

[0080] In this embodiment, the average values ​​("B1", "B2", "B3") of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 every second hour (every 10 minutes) from the fourth time point to the present time are calculated from the actual values ​​of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900. In other words, these are average values ​​of the actual values, not average values ​​of predicted values. This makes it possible to more accurately calculate the fourth predicted value "Q" described below.

[0081] The third predicted value calculation unit 103 uses the first graph (H) to calculate a third predicted value ("P") that predicts the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fifth point in time (current point in time), which is two hours before the third point in time (10 minutes later), to the third point in time (10 minutes later) (in the case of Figure 5B).

[0082] In the case of Figure 5C, the first graph (H) is used to calculate a third predicted value ("P") that predicts the average power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fifth point in time (10 minutes later), which is two hours before the third point in time (20 minutes later), to the third point in time (20 minutes later).

[0083] The third predicted value "P" is the value of the first graph (H) at the center point of the time interval from the fifth point in time to the third point in time.

[0084] In this manner, it is possible to estimate the amount of power generated from the fifth point in time to the third point in time from the trend of the change (change from "A1" to "a2") when the change in the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 is captured every first hour.

[0085] The fourth predicted value calculation unit 104 uses the second graph (J) to calculate a fourth predicted value ("Q") that predicts the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fifth point in time (present time) to the third point in time (10 minutes later) (in the case of Figure 5B).

[0086] In the case of Figure 5C, the second graph (I) is used to calculate a fourth predicted value ("P") that predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation equipment 900 from the fifth point in time (10 minutes later) to the third point in time (20 minutes later).

[0087] The fourth predicted value "Q" is the value of the second graph (J, I) at the center point of the time interval from the fifth point to the third point.

[0088] In this manner, it is possible to estimate the amount of power generated from the fifth point in time to the third point in time from the trend of the changes in the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 captured every second hour (the change from "B1" to "b4", or the change from "B1" to "b5").

[0089] Then, the difference calculation unit 107 calculates the difference "x" between the third predicted value "P" and the fourth predicted value "Q." In this manner, it is possible to extract the difference between the third predicted value derived from the first calculation formula 311 that predicts the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 in the first time cycle (long cycle) and the fourth predicted value derived from the second calculation formula 312 that predicts the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 in the second time cycle (short cycle) as the difference "x."

[0090] The first predicted value calculation unit 101 calculates the first predicted value "a2'" by subtracting this difference "x" from the above-mentioned provisional value "a2".

[0091] In this manner, it is possible to remove errors inherent in the provisional values ​​obtained by long-term prediction.

[0092] Furthermore, if the angle difference "θ" between the slope of the first graph and the slope of the second graph is greater than a predetermined threshold "w", the first predicted value calculation unit 101 calculates the first predicted value "a2'" by subtracting the difference "x" from the provisional value "a2", and if the angle difference "θ" is equal to or less than the threshold "w", it calculates the provisional value "a2" as the first predicted value.

[0093] Alternatively, if the difference "x" between the third predicted value "P" and the fourth predicted value "Q" is greater than a predetermined threshold "w'", the first predicted value calculation unit 101 may calculate the first predicted value "a2'" by subtracting the difference "x" from the provisional value "a2", and if the difference "x" is equal to or less than the threshold "w'", the provisional value "a2" may be calculated as the first predicted value.

[0094] In this manner, when the difference between the tendency of fluctuations in the amount of power generation when captured over a long period of every first hour and the tendency of fluctuations when captured over a short period of every second hour is relatively large, such as on cloudy days, the provisional value "a2" is corrected by the difference "x" to improve the accuracy of the first predicted value, and when the difference between the tendency of fluctuations between the two is relatively small, such as on sunny days, and correction by the difference "x" is not necessary, it is possible to prevent the provisional value from being corrected and the error from increasing.

[0095] The charge / discharge command value calculation unit 109 calculates, using a third calculation formula 313, a charge / discharge command value that determines the amount of power that the storage battery 600 connected to the power grid 400 should charge or discharge from the present time until the first hour (30 minutes from now).

[0096] Various calculation formulas have been proposed for calculating the charge / discharge amount of the storage battery 600, but in this embodiment, the third calculation formula 313 calculates a charge / discharge command value using the current state of charge of the storage battery 600 and a predicted value of power demand from the current time to the first hour ahead (30 minutes ahead) in the power system 400. In this manner, it becomes possible to store power in the storage battery 600 in advance so that there is no shortage of power to be supplied to a power consumption device (not shown) connected to the power system 400.

[0097] The third calculation formula 313 according to this embodiment further uses the difference "x" between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value described above to correct the value of the charge / discharge command value and output it.

[0098] For example, if the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 increases compared to a prior forecast while the storage battery 600 is being charged, resulting in a positive difference "x," the charge / discharge command value calculation unit 109 increases the charge / discharge command value by the difference "x." This increases the amount of charge to the storage battery 600, thereby stabilizing the supply and demand balance in the power grid 400.

[0099] Similarly, when the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 decreases from a prior forecast while the storage battery 600 is being charged, resulting in a negative difference "x," the charge / discharge command value calculation unit 109 decreases the charge / discharge command value by the difference "x." This reduces the amount of charge to the storage battery 600, thereby stabilizing the supply and demand balance in the power grid 400.

[0100] Furthermore, when the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 increases more than expected while the storage battery 600 is discharging, resulting in a positive difference "x," the charge / discharge command value calculation unit 109 decreases the charge / discharge command value by the difference "x." This reduces the amount of power discharged by the storage battery 600, making it possible to effectively use the power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 for consumption and stabilizing the supply and demand balance of the power grid 400.

[0101] Furthermore, when the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 decreases compared to a prior forecast while the storage battery 600 is discharging, resulting in a negative difference "x," the charge / discharge command value calculation unit 109 increases the charge / discharge command value by the difference "x." This increases the amount of power discharged from the storage battery 600, thereby stabilizing the supply and demand balance of the power grid 400. Alternatively, by decreasing the charge / discharge command value by the difference "x" and reducing the amount of power discharged from the storage battery 600, it becomes possible to prevent the storage battery 600 from becoming insufficiently charged. In this case, the supply and demand balance of the power grid 400 is maintained by increasing the amount of power generated by a controllable power plant (such as a thermal power plant or a hydroelectric power plant) (not shown) that can control the amount of power supplied to the power grid 400.

[0102] The solar power generation prediction device 100 periodically acquires information indicating the state of the storage battery 600, such as the charge rate of the storage battery 600 and whether the storage battery 600 is charging or discharging, from the storage battery 600, and also acquires the actual value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility from the solar power generation facility 900.

[0103] This embodiment makes it possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 in the short term ahead, without providing observation equipment at each installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900.

[0104] ==Processing flow== Next, a control method for the solar power generation prediction device 100 according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 7. Fig. 7 is a flowchart showing the procedure, and these steps are realized by the CPU 110 executing a solar power generation prediction device control program 700 stored in the storage device 130 of the solar power generation prediction device 100.

[0105] First, when the second timing (10-minute average calculation timing) arrives, which occurs every second hour (for example, every 10 minutes) (S1000), the solar power generation prediction device 100 refers to the power generation management table 300 and calculates the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from the second hour before the second timing to the second timing (S1010). In the example shown in Fig. 5B, the solar power generation prediction device 100 calculates the average power generation amount indicated by "B3".

[0106] Next, when a first timing (30-minute average calculation timing) that occurs every first hour (for example, every 30 minutes) arrives (S1020), the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 refers to the power generation amount management table 300 and calculates the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from the time point of the first timing until the time point of the first timing. In the example shown in Fig. 5B, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the average value of the power generation amount indicated by "A1" (S1030).

[0107] Then, the solar power generation amount prediction apparatus 100 calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value using the first calculation formula 311 (S1040). In the example shown in Fig. 5B, the solar power generation amount prediction apparatus 100 calculates a provisional value indicated by "a2" using the first calculation formula 311.

[0108] Furthermore, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates one or more second predicted values ​​for the period from the current time point to the third time point using the second calculation formula 312 (S1050). In the example shown in Fig. 5B, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the second predicted value indicated by "b4" using the first calculation formula 311.

[0109] Then, the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device 100 creates a first graph on a two-dimensional coordinate plane, which represents the tendency of change in the average amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900, based on the average value "A1" of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 for the first hour from the fourth time point, which is one hour before the current time point, to the current time point, and the provisional value "a2" (S1060). The photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device 100 also creates a second graph on a two-dimensional coordinate plane, which represents the tendency of change in the average amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900, based on the average values ​​"B1," "B2," and "B3" of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 for every second hour from the fourth time point to the current time point, and one or more second predicted values ​​("b4" in the example shown in FIG. 5B) from the current time point to the third time point (S1060).

[0110] Then, the solar power generation prediction device 100 uses the first graph to calculate a third predicted value "P" that predicts the average value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from the fifth time point, which is two hours before the third time point, to the third time point (S1070).

[0111] Furthermore, the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates a fourth predicted value “Q” that predicts the average value of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 from the fifth time point to the third time point using the second graph (S1080).

[0112] Then, the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 calculates the difference "x" between the third predicted value ("P") and the fourth predicted value ("Q") (S1090), and calculates the first predicted value "a2'" by subtracting this difference "x" from the provisional value ("a2") (S1100). The difference "x" corresponds to "x" shown in FIG. 5B, and the first predicted value corresponds to "a2'".

[0113] This embodiment makes it possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 900 in the short term ahead, without providing observation equipment at each installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility 900.

[0114] Then, the solar power generation prediction device 100 uses the difference "x" and the third calculation formula 313 to calculate a charge / discharge command value that determines the amount of power that the storage battery 600 should charge or discharge from the present time until the first hour (30 minutes) from now (S1110).

[0115] In this manner, the charge / discharge amount of the storage battery 600 can be controlled with higher precision.

[0116] The solar power generation amount prediction device 100, the control method and program for the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to this embodiment have been described above. According to the solar power generation amount prediction device 100, the control method and program for the solar power generation amount prediction device 100 according to this embodiment, it is possible to more accurately predict the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 900 in the short future without installing observation equipment at each installation location of the solar power generation facility 900.

[0117] The above-described embodiment is intended to facilitate understanding of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the present invention. The present invention may be modified or improved without departing from the spirit thereof, and equivalents thereof are also included in the present invention.

[0118] For example, in the above embodiment, the solar power generation prediction device 100 calculated the average value ("A1", "B1", etc.) of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 from the actual value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 900 for each first hour and each second hour, but it may also be calculated from the predicted value.

[0119] Furthermore, although the power system 400 has been described as a power distribution system, it may also be a power transmission system, a microgrid connected to a power system, or a microgrid independent of a power system. [Explanation of symbols]

[0120] 100 Photovoltaic power generation forecasting device 101 First predicted value calculation unit 102 Second predicted value calculation unit 103 Third predicted value calculation unit 104 Fourth predicted value calculation unit 105 Graph Creation Section 1 106 2nd Graph Creation Section 107 Difference calculation part 108 Provisional Value Calculation Unit 109 Charge / discharge command value calculation unit 110 CPU 120 memory 130 Storage device 140 Recording medium reader 150 Communication equipment 160 Input Devices 170 Output Device 300 Power Generation Management Table 310 Calculation Formula 311 First calculation formula 312 Second calculation formula 313 Third Calculation Formula 400 Power system 500 Network 600 storage battery 700 Photovoltaic power generation forecasting device control program 800 Recording Media 900 Solar power generation facilities 1000 Solar power generation forecasting system

Claims

1. A photovoltaic power generation prediction device that calculates a first predicted value that predicts a power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generation facility from a current time point to a first time point that is one hour ahead, a provisional value calculation unit that calculates a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula; a second predicted value calculation unit that calculates, using a second calculation formula, one or more second predicted values ​​that predict the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility for each second hour from the current time to a third time point that is a third hour ahead and is shorter than the first hour, with second hours being units that are obtained by equally dividing the first hour; and a first graph creation unit that creates a first graph on a two-dimensional coordinate plane, the first graph representing a tendency of change in the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility, based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility during the first time period from a fourth time period that is one hour before the current time period to the current time period and the provisional value; a second graph creation unit that creates a second graph on the two-dimensional coordinate plane, the second graph representing a trend of change in the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility, based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility for each second hour from the fourth time point to a current time point and the one or more second predicted values ​​from a current time point to the third time point; a third predicted value calculation unit that calculates a third predicted value by using the first graph to predict the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from a fifth time point that is the second hour before the third time point to the third time point; a fourth predicted value calculation unit that calculates a fourth predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the fifth time point to the third time point using the second graph; and a difference calculation unit that calculates a difference between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value; a first predicted value calculation unit that calculates the first predicted value by subtracting the difference from the provisional value; A solar power generation prediction device comprising:

2. The solar power generation prediction device according to claim 1, The first graph creation unit a solar power generation prediction device that creates, as the first graph, a straight line connecting two points on the two-dimensional coordinate plane that is determined by assuming that the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility in the first hour from the fourth time point to the present time and the provisional value are values ​​at the center of each time interval.

3. The solar power generation prediction device according to claim 1 or 2, The second graph creation unit a solar power generation prediction device that creates, as the second graph, a straight line that minimizes the sum of distances from a plurality of points on the two-dimensional coordinate plane that is determined by assuming that the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility for each second hour from the fourth time point to the current time point and the one or more second predicted values ​​from the current time point to the third time point are values ​​at the center of each time interval.

4. The solar power generation prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility in the first hour from the fourth time point to the present time and the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility for each second hour from the fourth time point to the present time are values ​​calculated from actual values ​​of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility.

5. The solar power generation prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, The first predicted value calculation unit a solar power generation prediction device that, when an angular difference between a slope of the first graph and a slope of the second graph is greater than a predetermined threshold, calculates the first predicted value by subtracting the difference from the provisional value, and, when the angular difference is equal to or less than the threshold, calculates the provisional value as the first predicted value.

6. The solar power generation prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, a charge / discharge command value calculation unit that uses the difference to calculate a charge / discharge command value that determines an amount of power to be charged or discharged from a storage battery connected to a power grid to which power generated by the solar power generation facility is supplied during the first time period from the present time; and The solar power generation prediction device further comprises:

7. A control method for a photovoltaic power generation prediction device that calculates a first predicted value that predicts a power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generation facility from a current time point to a first time point that is a first hour ahead, The solar power generation prediction device calculating a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula; calculating, using a second calculation formula, one or more second predicted values ​​that predict the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility for each second hour from the current time to a third time point that is a third hour ahead and shorter than the first hour, with second hours being units that are obtained by equally dividing the first hour; creating a first graph on a two-dimensional coordinate plane that represents a trend of change in the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility during the first time period from a fourth time period that is one hour before the current time period to the current time period and the provisional value; creating a second graph on the two-dimensional coordinate plane that represents a trend of change in the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility for each second hour from the fourth time point to a current time point and the one or more second predicted values ​​from a current time point to the third time point; calculating a third predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from a fifth time point that is the second hour before the third time point to the third time point using the first graph; calculating a fourth predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the fifth time point to the third time point using the second graph; calculating a difference between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value; calculating the first predicted value by subtracting the difference from the provisional value; A method for controlling a solar power generation prediction device.

8. A program for calculating a first predicted value that predicts a power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generation facility from a current time point to a first time point that is a first hour ahead, On the computer, calculating a provisional value of the first predicted value using a first calculation formula; calculating, using a second calculation formula, one or more second predicted values ​​that predict the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility for each second hour from the current time to a third time point that is a third hour ahead and is shorter than the first hour, with second hours being units that are obtained by equally dividing the first hour; creating a first graph on a two-dimensional coordinate plane, the first graph representing a trend of change in the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility, based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility during the first time period from a fourth time period that is the first time period before the current time period to the current time period and the provisional value; creating a second graph on the two-dimensional coordinate plane that represents a trend of change in the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility, based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility for each second hour from the fourth time point to a current time point and the one or more second predicted values ​​from a current time point to the third time point; calculating a third predicted value by using the first graph to predict the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility from a fifth time point that is the second hour before the third time point to the third time point; calculating a fourth predicted value that predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility from the fifth time point to the third time point using the second graph; calculating a difference between the third predicted value and the fourth predicted value; calculating the first predicted value by subtracting the difference from the provisional value; A program to execute.

Images