Operation plan calculation device, heat source system, and operation plan calculation method

Abstract

To enable both securing of operation preliminary force of a heat source machine and energy saving.SOLUTION: An operation plan calculation device includes a demand prediction section, a setting section, and a schedule calculation section. The demand prediction section calculates demand prediction information by predicting demand of a load that is a supply target of a heat source machine. The setting section sets a first condition for restricting supply-demand balance to be satisfied by heat supply amount of the heat source machine relative to the demand prediction information, a second condition for restricting a minimum operation stop time for continuing the operation or stop of the heat source machine, and a third condition for securing operation preliminary force of any value. The schedule calculation section calculates an operation plan of the heat source machine through calculation for optimizing a value of a predetermined evaluation function under the first condition, the second condition, and the third condition.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] An embodiment of the present invention relates to an operation plan calculation device, a heat source system, and an operation plan calculation method. [Background technology]

[0002] Factories, apartment buildings, intelligent buildings, shopping malls, etc. often use central air conditioning systems, in which a heat source unit supplies the cold and hot heat for air conditioning using a heat medium such as chilled water or hot water. Several technologies have been disclosed for creating start / stop schedules (operation plans, i.e., start / stop schedules) for heat source machines. For example, a technology is known in which the amount of power consumed by a heat source machine is modeled as a linear equation, and optimal operation of the heat source system is performed based on this. Another known technology is to tabulate the results of offline optimization of heat source machines, control the system, and determine the heat source machine to operate that minimizes the integrated value of the evaluation index for the predicted heat load. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Patent No. 4630702 [Patent Document 2] Patent No. 5346218 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] Existing technologies control the number of operating heat source machines to a level sufficient to cover the actual or predicted load (demand) that the heat source system is responsible for supplying. However, there is not always sufficient spare capacity in the event that an operating heat source machine suddenly stops due to a malfunction, for example. If the heat supply capacity of a heat source machine is insufficient in a large factory, the operation of the production line will be disrupted, with severe and widespread repercussions. There is a need for technology that can reliably maintain the supply capacity of heat source machines while also taking energy conservation into consideration. Therefore, an object is to provide an operation plan calculation device, a heat source system, and an operation plan calculation method that aim to achieve both ensuring the operating reserve capacity of a heat source machine and energy conservation. [Means for solving the problem]

[0005] According to an embodiment, an operation plan calculation device includes a demand prediction unit, a setting unit, and a schedule calculation unit. The demand prediction unit predicts demand for a load to be supplied by the heat source machine and calculates demand prediction information. The setting unit sets a first condition that constrains the supply and demand balance that must be satisfied by the heat supply amount of the heat source machine based on the demand prediction information, a second condition that constrains a minimum operation stoppage time for continuing operation or stoppage of the heat source machine, and a third condition that ensures an arbitrary value of operating reserve capacity. The schedule calculation unit calculates an operation plan for the heat source machine by performing a calculation that optimizes the value of a predetermined evaluation function under the first condition, the second condition, and the third condition. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0006] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a heat source system according to an embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of the control target device 4 shown in FIG. [Figure 3] FIG. 3 is a functional block diagram illustrating an example of an operation plan calculation device 1 according to the first embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining the operating reserve. [Figure 5] FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure of the operation plan calculation device 1 shown in FIG. [Figure 6] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of a screen for setting the operating reserve. [Figure 7] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the setting screen when (Common) is selected. [Figure 8] FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the operating reserve that the start / stop schedule should satisfy when [Maximum] is selected. [Figure 9]FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of the operating reserve that the start / stop schedule should satisfy when [Minimum] is selected. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the operating reserve that should be satisfied by the start / stop schedule when [Average] is selected. [Figure 11] FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of the operating reserve that the start / stop schedule should satisfy when [Median] is selected. [Figure 12] FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an example of the setting screen when (by time) is selected in FIG. [Figure 13] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of the operating reserve capacity satisfied by the start / stop schedule when the time-of-day condition is selected. [Figure 14] FIG. 14 is a diagram showing an example of the setting screen when (By Event) is selected in FIG. [Figure 15] FIG. 15 is a diagram showing an example of the operating reserve capacity satisfied by the start / stop schedule when an event-specific condition is selected. [Figure 16] FIG. 16 is a functional block diagram illustrating an example of an operation plan calculation device 100 according to the second embodiment. [Figure 17] FIG. 17 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure of the operation plan calculation device 100 shown in FIG. [Figure 18] FIG. 18 is a diagram for explaining calculation of the corrected forecast demand. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0007] [overview] 1 is a diagram showing an example of a heat source system according to an embodiment. This system includes a monitoring and control system 3 installed in a target facility 2, and an operation plan calculation device 1 communicably connected to the monitoring and control system 3. The monitoring and control system 3 is connected to control target devices 4 and sensors 5, and controls the control target devices 4 using sensor data from the sensors 5.

[0008] 1, an operation plan calculation device 1 calculates a start / stop schedule for control-target equipment 4. A monitoring and control system 3 controls the control-target equipment 4 based on the start / stop schedule. In particular, it is possible to provide sensor data to the operation plan calculation device 1 to create a start / stop schedule that reflects the sensor data, and provide the schedule to the monitoring and control system 3.

[0009] 2 is a diagram showing an example of the control target device 4 shown in FIG. 1. The control target device 4, which is the object of control by the monitoring and control system 3, includes, for example, a plurality of water-cooled chillers 11 and 12, an air-cooled HP (heat pump) chiller 13, or an absorption chiller 14. The water-cooled chillers 11 and 12 and the air-cooled HP chiller 13 operate on power received by, for example, a power receiving facility 10. The absorption chiller 14 is driven by, for example, city gas as an energy source. These are examples of heat source devices, and are capable of generating cold or hot heat.

[0010] In this embodiment, the water-cooled chillers 11 and 12, the air-cooled HP chiller 13, and the absorption chiller 14 produce chilled water as a heat medium. The produced chilled water is supplied to the load equipment 30 via the chilled water header 20. The load equipment 30 is a target to which the cold heat, the hot heat, or both generated by the heat source equipment are supplied. Next, the operation plan calculation device 1 will be described based on the above configuration.

[0011] [First embodiment] [composition] 3 is a functional block diagram showing an example of an operation plan calculation device 1 according to the first embodiment. Actual demand data, equipment conditions such as the efficiency and capacity of the control-target equipment 4, operating conditions such as minimum operation / stop times, and operating reserve capacity settings are input to the operation plan calculation device 1.

[0012] In FIG. 3, the operation plan calculation device 1 includes a demand prediction unit 20, a schedule calculation unit 21, a display unit 22, and a setting unit 23. The demand forecasting unit 20 predicts the demand (heat demand) of the load equipment 30 for a preset period (for example, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 24 hours, or 1 month) and calculates demand forecast information. At that time, the demand forecasting unit 20 acquires actual demand data indicating past performance and uses it in calculating the demand forecast information.

[0013] The setting unit 23 sets conditions for calculating a start / stop schedule at any target time for the control-target devices 4. In other words, the setting unit 23 provides the user with an environment for accepting various operations such as input, setting, selection, and specification by the user. In other words, the setting unit 23 has a user interface such as a keyboard and mouse that accepts operation input by the operator (user), and sets the conditions set by the operator in the schedule calculation unit 21.

[0014] Here, in the embodiment, at least the following three conditions are taken into consideration. (First Condition) The first condition is a condition that restricts the supply-demand balance that should be satisfied by the supply amount of cold heat, hot heat, or both of these generated by the heat source device, based on the demand forecast information. (Second Condition) Article 2 Condition is a condition that restricts the minimum operation / stop time for which the heat source machine may continue to operate or stop at any time within a certain period. (Third Condition) The third condition is a condition for ensuring an arbitrary value of operating reserve.

[0015] The operating reserve will now be explained with reference to Figure 4. In Figure 4, reference numeral 31 denotes a stacked bar graph showing the capacity (amount of heat) of heat source units for which "operation" has been selected in the calculated start / stop schedule, against a time-series forecasted demand 30 (line graph). The top of this stacked bar graph indicates the amount of supply that the heat source system can provide for each hour. The operating reserve (reference numeral 32) is given by the difference between the top of the stacked bar graph 31 and the forecasted demand 30.

[0016] In the embodiment, a start / stop schedule is calculated that can secure operating reserve 32 in addition to the forecast demand 30. In the calculation, various factors can be taken into consideration, such as the amount of operating reserve 32 to be secured and the criteria for securing it.

[0017] Returning to FIG. 3 again, the explanation will be continued. The schedule calculation unit 21 performs a calculation to optimize the value of a predetermined evaluation function formulated for the target heat source system under the above-mentioned first condition, second condition, and third condition, and calculates a start / stop schedule for the controlled equipment 4 as a heat source machine.

[0018] The display unit 22 forms a GUI (Graphical User Interface) environment together with the setting unit 23, and provides various visual information to the operator. For example, the display unit 22 displays a graph of the calculated start / stop schedule.

[0019] [Effect] Next, the operation of the above configuration will be described. Fig. 5 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure of the operation plan calculation device 1 shown in Fig. 3. In Fig. 4, the demand prediction unit 20 acquires actual demand data (step S1). Note that, in addition, weather forecast data for the demand prediction target time may also be acquired, and the demand may be predicted using an algorithm that takes the weather forecast data into consideration.

[0020] Next, the demand forecasting unit 20 performs a forecasting calculation, for example, to forecast the demand of the load equipment 30 for a certain period of time (step S2). In the demand forecasting calculation, a method using a regression equation identified for past actual demand data can be used. Alternatively, a pattern matching method can be used, in which a date that best matches the input immediately preceding actual demand data with the past actual demand data at the same time is extracted using an arbitrary similarity index. In addition, any known method can be used.

[0021] Next, the schedule calculation unit 21 acquires the equipment conditions such as the efficiency and capacity of the control-target equipment 4, and the operation conditions such as the minimum operation / stop time (step S3). This makes it possible to calculate the start / stop schedule for any target time.

[0022] Next, the schedule calculation unit 21 acquires the setting related to the operating reserve (step S4). This makes it possible to calculate a start / stop schedule that takes the operating reserve into consideration. The setting of the operating reserve will be described in detail later in <Setting of Operating Reserve>.

[0023] Next, the schedule calculation unit 21 calculates a start / stop schedule for the heat source machine at any target time using the acquired equipment conditions, operating conditions, and operating reserve power settings (step S5). Finally, the schedule calculation unit 21 displays the calculated start / stop schedule for the heat source machine on the display unit 22 (step S6).

[0024] Here, the calculation of the start / stop schedule will be described in detail. <General calculation method for start / stop schedules> First, we will explain how to calculate the start / stop schedule without considering operating reserve capacity. The start / stop schedule can be obtained by solving the following optimization problem. Note that index k is the individual number of the heat source unit, n is the number of devices to be controlled, t is the time, and X is the minimum operation / stop time setting. Note that the superscript and subscript lines represent the upper and lower limit settings.

[0025]

number

[0026] The decision variables are shown below. U REF : Heat source machine on / off status T C :Chilled water outlet temperature (°C) T CW :Cooling water inlet temperature (°C)

[0027] The dependent variables or constants are shown below. P ALL : Total energy usage (kW) P REF : Energy used by heat source (kW) P CT : Cooling tower fan energy consumption (kW) Q LOAD : Forecast demand (kW) Q CT :Cooling tower cooling heat amount (kW) Q REF :Heat source machine heat capacity (kW) COP REF : Heat source unit coefficient of performance T WB : Outside air wet bulb temperature (°CWB) start REF : Heat source unit operation transition stop REF : Heat source unit shutdown

[0028] The objective function, equation (1), is the energy used by the entire heat source system, and is the sum of the energy used by the heat source unit and its auxiliary equipment (for example, the cooling tower in the case of a water-cooled chiller). Note that the energy used by a cooling tower, for example, is calculated using parameters such as the temperature of the cooling water produced, the outside air wet-bulb temperature, and the amount of heat cooled by the cooling tower. This objective function can also be other indicators, such as operating costs or carbon dioxide emissions equivalent.

[0029] Equations (2) to (8) are the constraints that must be satisfied by the solution to this optimization problem. Equation (2) defines the power used by the heat source unit and is calculated using parameters such as the heat output of the heat source unit, the cooling water temperature, and the chilled water outlet temperature. Equation (3) is the overall heat balance constraint, Equation (4) is the cooling tower heat balance constraint, and Equation (5) is the upper and lower limit constraint for the heat output of the heat source unit. Equation (6) indicates that the decision variable, the on / off status of the heat source unit, is a discrete variable of 0 or 1. In Equation (7), the dependent variables, on / off transition and off transition, are set to "1" at the time when the on / off status of the heat source unit is changed. Equation (8) is the minimum on / off time constraint, which is the minimum duration that the heat source unit must remain on / off.

[0030] A start / stop schedule for heat source machines can be obtained by deriving optimal decision variable values ​​that satisfy the constraint condition equations (2) to (8) and minimize or maximize the objective function of equation (1). Note that various mathematical programming methods such as linear programming, heuristic methods, and approximate exhaustive search methods can be applied to calculate the decision variable values.

[0031] <Regarding the setting of operating reserve capacity> Next, the setting of the operating reserve will be described. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of a setting screen for operating reserve power displayed on the display unit 22. The screen in FIG. 6 shows multiple items, such as common, time-based, and event-based, and the user can select one of these using a radio button. These items are used to specify whether the conditions are common conditions, time-based conditions, or event-based conditions for the period for which the schedule is calculated. That is, in the next step, the user selects one of multiple options ([Maximum], [Minimum], [Average], [Median], or [Optional]), and for each option, the user can specify (Common), (Time-based), or (Event-based). When (Common) is selected on the screen in FIG. 6, the screen in FIG. 7 is displayed.

[0032] Figure 7 shows an example of a settings screen when (Common) is selected. In Figure 7, multiple options, including [Maximum], [Minimum], [Average], [Median], and [Optional], are displayed as clickable buttons. The following describes the processing that occurs when each button is clicked.

[0033] (Maximum selected) Fig. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the operating reserve that the start / stop schedule should satisfy when [Max] is selected in Fig. 7. In Fig. 8, reference numerals 40 to 42 indicate the capacities of heat source units 1 to 3, respectively, for comparison. Reference numerals 44 to 47 indicate the minimum operating reserve that should be satisfied at times T1 to T4. At each time, the maximum value of the capacities of the heat source units that are operating (ON) is secured as the minimum operating reserve.

[0034] If [Maximum] is selected, in addition to the equations (2) to (8), the constraint of the equation (9) is added when calculating the start / stop schedule in step S5.

number

[0035] (If minimum is selected) Fig. 9 is a diagram showing an example of the operating reserve that the start / stop schedule should satisfy when [Minimum] is selected in Fig. 7. In Fig. 9, reference numerals 50 to 53 indicate the minimum operating reserve that should be satisfied at times T1 to T4. At each time, the minimum value of the capacities of the heat source units that are operating (ON) is secured as the minimum operating reserve.

[0036] If [Minimum] is selected, in addition to the equations (2) to (8), the constraint of the equation (10) is added when calculating the start / stop schedule in step S5.

number

[0037] (if average is selected) Fig. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the operating reserve that should be satisfied by the start / stop schedule when [Average] is selected in Fig. 7. In Fig. 10, assuming that the capacities of heat source units 1 to 3 are 200 kW, 100 kW, and 50 kW, respectively, the average value of the capacities of the heat source units that are in operation (ON) at each time of the start / stop schedule 60 is secured as the minimum required operating reserve.

[0038] If [Average] is selected, in addition to the equations (2) to (8), the constraint of the equation (11) is added when calculating the start / stop schedule in step S5.

number

[0039] (if median is selected) FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of the operating reserve that the start / stop schedule should satisfy when [Median] is selected in FIG. 7. In FIG. 11, the median of the heat source unit capacities that are in operation (ON) at each time is secured as the minimum required operating reserve. Note that, focusing on time T3, there are two heat source units scheduled to operate at this time, which is an even number, so the median cannot be determined. In such a case, it is sufficient to set the capacity to one of the heat source units, or to use the average of the two as the operating reserve.

[0040] If [Median] is selected, in addition to the equations (2) to (8), the constraint of the equation (12) is added when calculating the start / stop schedule in step S5.

number

[0041] (If optional is selected) If [Optional] is selected, in addition to the equations (2) to (8), the constraint of the equation (13) is added when calculating the start / stop schedule in step S5.

number

[0042] Fig. 12 is a diagram showing an example of a setting screen when (By Time) is selected in Fig. 6. As shown in Fig. 12, options of [Maximum], [Minimum], [Average], [Median], and [Optional] can be set for each time.

[0043] Figure 13 is a diagram showing an example of the operating reserve capacity that is satisfied by the start / stop schedule when time-based conditions are selected. T1 (maximum), T2 (maximum), T3 (average), and T4 (minimum) are specified, and it can be seen that the specified operating reserve capacity is secured.

[0044] Fig. 14 is a diagram showing an example of a setting screen when (By Event) is selected in Fig. 6. Fig. 14 shows an example in which A is specified as [Maximum] because unexpected breakdowns and shutdowns are likely to occur within one hour [hour] after the heat source machine is started, B is specified as [Average] during the day and for events other than A, and C is specified as [Optional] for events other than these.

[0045] Fig. 15 shows an example of the operating reserve capacity that is satisfied by the start / stop schedule when the conditions for each event are selected. It can be seen that the operating reserve capacity conforming to Fig. 14 is secured.

[0046] As described above, the constraint conditions corresponding to the set operating reserve are added and the schedule calculation unit 21 is then caused to calculate the start / stop schedule. This makes it possible to calculate a solution that satisfies the constraint conditions shown in Figures 8 to 11, 13, and 15 and can secure the set operating reserve.

[0047] [effect] As described above, in this embodiment, in the process of calculating the start / stop schedule, in addition to the supply-demand balance constraint that the heat supply volume of the heat source machines must satisfy the predicted demand, it is possible to add a new constraint that requires securing various types of operating reserve capacity. This allows for a margin in the heat supply volume, and even if the heat source machines stop or the supply capacity decreases due to an unforeseen event, it is possible to avoid a shortage of overall heat supply capacity. In other words, it is possible to calculate a start / stop schedule for heat source machines that achieves both energy conservation and supply reliability without compromising supply reliability. From these points, according to the first embodiment, it is possible to provide an operation plan calculation device, a heat source system, and an operation plan calculation method that aim to achieve both ensuring the operating reserve capacity of the heat source machine and energy conservation.

[0048] [Second embodiment] [composition] Fig. 16 is a functional block diagram showing an example of an operation plan calculation device 100 according to the second embodiment. In Fig. 16, parts common to Fig. 3 are denoted by the same reference numerals, and only different parts will be described here.

[0049] 16, the operation plan calculation device 100 includes a demand prediction unit 20, a schedule calculation unit 21, a display unit 22, and a setting unit 23, as well as a prediction error evaluation unit 101. The forecast error evaluation unit 101 calculates an error index between past forecast demand and actual demand. For example, the forecast error evaluation unit 101 corrects the demand forecast information based on at least the probability distribution of past forecast errors at each time. The schedule calculation unit 21 corrects the supply and demand balance under the first condition based on the error index, and calculates a start / stop schedule for the heat source machines based on the corrected demand forecast information. In FIG. 16 , the coverage probability for past forecast errors satisfied by the corrected forecast demand is input to the forecast error evaluation unit 101.

[0050] [Effect] Fig. 17 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure of the operation plan calculation device 100 shown in Fig. 16. In Fig. 17, the demand forecasting unit 20 acquires weather forecast data (step S100), performs forecasting calculation, and forecasts the demand of the load equipment 30 for a certain period of time (step S101).

[0051] Next, the forecast error evaluation unit 101 calculates a corrected forecast demand that takes into account past forecast errors based on the cover probability (step S102). Next, the schedule calculation unit 21 acquires the corrected forecast demand and operating conditions such as equipment conditions and minimum operating and shutdown times (step S103), and further acquires settings related to operating reserve capacity (step S104).

[0052] Next, the schedule calculation unit 21 calculates a start / stop schedule for the heat source machines at any target time using the acquired equipment conditions, operating conditions, corrected forecast demand, and operating reserve capacity setting (step S105). Finally, the schedule calculation unit 21 displays the calculated start / stop schedule for the heat source machines on the display unit 22 (step S106).

[0053] Fig. 18 is a diagram for explaining the calculation of the corrected forecast demand. Fig. 18(a) shows the forecast demand for times T1 to T5 calculated by the demand forecasting unit 20. Here, it is assumed that the forecast demand 110 for time T3 is 320 kW. The forecast error evaluation unit 101 calculates the corrected forecast demand for time T3 taking into account the input coverage probability. Note that this coverage probability may be set for each time period.

[0054] 18(b) shows the frequency 111 of past forecast errors at time T3 and their cumulative probability 112. Here, if the cover probability is set to 70%, +5 kW is selected at the starting point of the next threshold where the cumulative probability of the forecast error exceeds 70%, and the value obtained by adding +5 kW to the forecast demand at time T3 calculated by the demand forecasting unit 20 is calculated as the corrected forecast demand at time T3.

[0055] [effect] In the second embodiment, when the forecast error is large or when the impact of the forecast error is large, the cover probability is set high, making it possible to calculate a start / stop schedule that takes the forecast error into account in addition to reflecting various operating reserve settings. On the other hand, if the cover probability is set low, the operating reserve that is secured can be reduced, making it possible to calculate a schedule that further pursues energy and cost savings set in the objective function.

[0056] As described above, according to the second embodiment, in addition to the effects obtained by the first embodiment, it is possible to flexibly calculate a heat source unit start / stop schedule according to the supply reliability level required by the target. Furthermore, by taking into account the possibility that the predicted demand will be inaccurate, it is possible to flexibly calculate the start / stop schedule according to the supply reliability level required by the target.

[0057] It should be noted that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment. For example, the system configuration shown in FIG. 1 is an example, and various other configurations are possible. For example, the operation plan calculation device 1 may be a so-called cloud server that belongs to a network segment different from that of the target facility 2 or to a network outside a firewall. The cloud server is not limited to one that has a physical entity, and may be one that is virtualized on a computer system.

[0058] Although several embodiments of the present invention have been described, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These novel embodiments can be embodied in various other forms, and various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included within the scope and spirit of the invention, and are also included in the scope of the invention and its equivalents as defined in the claims. [Explanation of symbols]

[0059] 1-3...heat source machine, 1...operation plan calculation device, 2...target facility, 3...monitoring and control system, 4...control target equipment, 5...sensor, 10...power receiving equipment, 11...water-cooled chiller, 12...water-cooled chiller, 13...air-cooled HP chiller, 14...absorption chiller, 15...chilled water header, 20...demand forecasting section, 21...schedule calculation section, 22...display section, 23...setting section, 30...load equipment, 32...operating reserve capacity, 60...start / stop schedule, 100...operation plan calculation device, 101...forecast error evaluation section, 110...forecasted demand.

Claims

1. a demand forecasting unit that predicts the demand for a load to be supplied by the heat source device and calculates demand forecast information; a setting unit that sets a first condition that constrains the supply-demand balance that the heat supply amount of the heat source machine should satisfy based on the demand forecast information, a second condition that constrains a minimum operation stop time for continuing operation or stop of the heat source machine, and a third condition that ensures an arbitrary value of operating reserve capacity; a schedule calculation unit that calculates an operation plan for the heat source machine by performing a calculation to optimize a value of a predetermined evaluation function under the first condition, the second condition, and the third condition; The setting unit provides an environment for a user to specify either a maximum value or a minimum value of the supply capacity of a heat source machine operating in accordance with the operation plan, and sets the specified maximum value or minimum value as the operating reserve capacity.

2. A demand forecasting unit that predicts the demand for a load to be supplied by a heat source device and calculates demand forecast information; a setting unit that sets a first condition that constrains the supply-demand balance that the heat supply amount of the heat source machine should satisfy based on the demand forecast information, a second condition that constrains a minimum operation stop time for continuing operation or stop of the heat source machine, and a third condition that ensures an arbitrary value of operating reserve capacity; a schedule calculation unit that calculates an operation plan for the heat source machine by performing a calculation to optimize a value of a predetermined evaluation function under the first condition, the second condition, and the third condition; The setting unit provides an environment for a user to specify either the average value or the median value of the supply capacity of the heat source machines operating in accordance with the operation plan, and sets the specified average value or median value as the operating reserve capacity.

3. A demand forecasting unit that predicts the demand for a load to be supplied by a heat source device and calculates demand forecast information; a setting unit that sets a first condition that constrains the supply-demand balance that the heat supply amount of the heat source machine should satisfy based on the demand forecast information, a second condition that constrains a minimum operation stop time for continuing operation or stop of the heat source machine, and a third condition that ensures an arbitrary value of operating reserve capacity; a schedule calculation unit that calculates an operation plan for the heat source machine by performing a calculation to optimize a value of a predetermined evaluation function under the first condition, the second condition, and the third condition; The setting unit sets an operating reserve for each predefined event.

4. A demand forecasting unit that predicts the demand for a load that is a supply target of a heat source device and calculates demand forecast information; a setting unit that sets a first condition that constrains the supply-demand balance that the heat supply amount of the heat source machine should satisfy based on the demand forecast information, a second condition that constrains a minimum operation stop time for continuing operation or stop of the heat source machine, and a third condition that ensures an arbitrary value of operating reserve capacity; a schedule calculation unit that calculates an operation plan for the heat source machine by performing a calculation to optimize a value of a predetermined evaluation function under the first condition, the second condition, and the third condition; a forecast error evaluation unit that calculates an error index between a past forecast demand and an actual demand, The prediction error evaluation unit corrects the demand forecast information based on at least a probability distribution of past prediction errors at each time point.

5. The schedule calculation unit calculates operation or stop of the heat source machine for each time as the operation plan, The operation plan calculation device according to claim 1 , wherein the setting unit sets the operating reserve capacity for each time period to the third condition.

6. The operation plan calculation device according to claim 3 , wherein the event is set according to an elapsed time from the start of operation of the heat source machine.

7. An operation plan calculation device described in any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the schedule calculation unit calculates the operation plan by performing an operation that maximizes or minimizes the value of the evaluation function.

8. An operation plan calculation device as described in claim 4, which calculates the operation plan by correcting the supply and demand balance under the first condition based on the error index.

9. An operation plan calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 8, a monitoring and control device that controls the heat source machine based on the calculated operation plan;

10. A method for calculating an operation plan for a heat source machine using an operation plan calculation device, comprising: The operation plan calculation device predicts demand for a load to be supplied by the heat source machine and calculates demand prediction information; The operation plan calculation device sets a first condition that constrains the supply-demand balance that should be satisfied by the heat supply amount of the heat source machine based on the demand forecast information, a second condition that constrains a minimum operation stop time for continuing operation or stop of the heat source machine, and a third condition that ensures an arbitrary value of operating reserve capacity; the operation plan calculation device calculates the operation plan by a calculation that optimizes a value of a predetermined evaluation function under the first condition, the second condition, and the third condition; an operation plan calculation method in which, in the setting, the operation plan calculation device provides an environment for a user to specify either a maximum value or a minimum value of the supply capacity of a heat source machine operating in accordance with the operation plan, and sets the specified maximum value or minimum value as the operating reserve capacity.

11. A method for calculating an operation plan for a heat source machine by an operation plan calculation device, The operation plan calculation device predicts demand for a load to be supplied by the heat source machine and calculates demand prediction information; The operation plan calculation device sets a first condition that constrains the supply-demand balance that should be satisfied by the heat supply amount of the heat source machine based on the demand forecast information, a second condition that constrains a minimum operation stop time for continuing operation or stop of the heat source machine, and a third condition that ensures an arbitrary value of operating reserve capacity; the operation plan calculation device calculates the operation plan by a calculation that optimizes a value of a predetermined evaluation function under the first condition, the second condition, and the third condition; an operation plan calculation method in which, in the setting, the operation plan calculation device provides an environment for a user to specify either an average value or a median value of the supply capacity of heat source machines operating in accordance with the operation plan, and sets the specified average value or median value as the operating reserve capacity.

12. A method for calculating an operation plan for a heat source machine using an operation plan calculation device, comprising: The operation plan calculation device predicts demand for a load to be supplied by the heat source machine and calculates demand prediction information; The operation plan calculation device sets a first condition that constrains the supply-demand balance that should be satisfied by the heat supply amount of the heat source machine based on the demand forecast information, a second condition that constrains a minimum operation stop time for continuing operation or stop of the heat source machine, and a third condition that ensures an arbitrary value of operating reserve capacity; the operation plan calculation device calculates the operation plan by a calculation that optimizes a value of a predetermined evaluation function under the first condition, the second condition, and the third condition; The operation plan calculation method, wherein the operation plan calculation device, in the setting, sets an operating reserve for each predefined event.

13. A method for calculating an operation plan for a heat source machine using an operation plan calculation device, comprising: The operation plan calculation device predicts demand for a load to be supplied by the heat source machine and calculates demand prediction information; The operation plan calculation device sets a first condition that constrains the supply-demand balance that should be satisfied by the heat supply amount of the heat source machine based on the demand forecast information, a second condition that constrains a minimum operation stop time for continuing operation or stop of the heat source machine, and a third condition that ensures an arbitrary value of operating reserve capacity; The operation plan calculation device calculates the operation plan by a calculation that optimizes a value of a predetermined evaluation function under the first condition, the second condition, and the third condition; the operation plan calculation device calculates an error index between a past predicted demand and an actual demand, The operation plan calculation method, wherein the operation plan calculation device corrects the demand forecast information based on at least a probability distribution of past forecast errors at each time.

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