Lifetime prediction system, lifetime prediction program, lifetime prediction device, lifetime notification system, and lifetime prediction method

Abstract

To predict the life of a component constituting a steam regulating valve with high precision.SOLUTION: A life prediction system (100) comprises: a calculation part (51) which acquires temperature information from a temperature sensor (41) to calculate a bulk specific gravity decrease rate (UR) of a carbon gasket (31) of a steam regulating valve (30); and a prediction part (52) which uses the bulk specific gravity decrease rate (UR) to predict the life of the carbon gasket (31).SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a life prediction system, a life prediction program, a life prediction device, and a life prediction method for predicting the life of a steam control valve component that constitutes a steam turbine, as well as a life notification system for notifying the life of the aforementioned component. [Background technology]

[0002] Techniques for monitoring and evaluating the state of valves that constitute a steam turbine and changing the operating conditions of the valve being evaluated based on the evaluation results are known as prior art. For example, Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for determining whether or not there is a possibility of valve corrosion based on the steam temperature, chemical composition of the steam, etc., and changing the operating parameters of the valve based on the determination results. Specifically, a feature amount related to friction between a spindle and a guide element (such as a guide bush) is calculated from the steam temperature, etc., and the calculation result is used to determine whether or not there is a possibility of valve corrosion. The spindle and guide element are both components that constitute the valve. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Patent No. 6801112 specification Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] As mentioned above, the technology disclosed in Patent Document 1 takes into consideration the friction of the components that make up the valve when assessing the possibility of valve corrosion, but does not take into consideration the degree of deterioration of the components that make up the valve (how much the components that make up the valve have deteriorated).As a result, the technology disclosed in Patent Document 1 does not have sufficient accuracy in assessing the possibility of valve corrosion, in other words, in predicting the lifespan of the components that make up the valve, and it was not possible to change the operating parameters of the valve at the appropriate timing.

[0005] One aspect of the present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned problems, and has as its object to accurately predict the life of a valve that constitutes a steam turbine. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, a life prediction system according to one embodiment of the present invention includes a calculation unit that acquires temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve that constitutes a steam turbine and calculates a deterioration index that is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of a component that constitutes the steam control valve, and a prediction unit that predicts the life of the component using the deterioration index calculated by the calculation unit.

[0007] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, a life prediction device according to one embodiment of the present invention includes a calculation unit that acquires temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve that constitutes a steam turbine and calculates a deterioration index that is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of a component that constitutes the steam control valve, and a prediction unit that predicts the life of the component using the deterioration index calculated by the calculation unit.

[0008] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, a lifespan notification system according to one embodiment of the present invention includes a calculation unit that acquires temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve that constitutes a steam turbine and calculates a deterioration index that is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of a component that constitutes the steam control valve, a prediction unit that predicts the lifespan of the component using the deterioration index calculated by the calculation unit, and a notification unit that notifies a user of the prediction result of the prediction unit.

[0009] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, a life prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention includes a calculation step of acquiring temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve that constitutes a steam turbine and calculating a deterioration index that is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of a component that constitutes the steam control valve, and a prediction step of predicting the life of the component using the deterioration index calculated in the calculation step. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] According to one aspect of the present invention, the life of components that make up a steam control valve can be predicted with high accuracy. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram showing an example of a configuration of a main part of a life prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention; [Figure 2] 1 is a front view showing the state of the main parts of the steam control valve before the control valve cover thermally expands. FIG. [Figure 3] Reference numeral 301 is a side view showing the state of the main part of the steam control valve shown in Fig. 2. Reference numeral 302 is an enlarged view of the carbon packing and its surroundings of the steam control valve shown by reference numeral 301. [Figure 4] 3 is a flowchart illustrating an example of processing performed in a lifespan prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a calculation model of the load acting on the valve stem. [Figure 6] 1 is a graph showing an example of a wear life curve of a carbon packing. [Figure 7] 1 is a graph showing an example of a bulk specific gravity reduction rate curve of a carbon packing. [Figure 8] 1 is a graph showing a life function, a life slope line, and a design wear limit line of a carbon packing. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0012] [Configuration of life prediction system and main structure of steam control valve] The configuration of a life prediction system 100 according to one embodiment of the present invention and the structure of a main part of a steam control valve 30 will be described with reference to Figures 1 to 3. As shown in Figure 1, the life prediction system 100 includes an information processing device 1 and a server 2. The information processing device 1 and the server 2 are configured to be able to communicate with each other via a network such as the Internet.

[0013] 1, the lifespan prediction system 100 is configured with one information processing device 1 and one server 2, but a plurality of information processing devices 1 can be included in the lifespan prediction system 100. Similarly, a plurality of servers 2 can be included in the lifespan prediction system 100. Note that the lifespan prediction system 100 also functions as a lifespan notification system according to one embodiment of the present invention, since the information processing device 1 is equipped with a display unit 13 described below.

[0014] The life prediction system 100 is a system for predicting the life of parts (hereinafter referred to as "components") that make up the steam control valve 30 in the steam turbine 3. In this specification, the "life of a component" refers to the period of time until the function of the component deteriorates due to aging or the like to a level that interferes with the operation of the steam control valve 30, and until the function of the component cannot be restored to the level that allows the steam control valve 30 to operate without any problems, even if the component is repaired or reinforced.

[0015] For example, if an association or other organization to which a component manufacturer belongs specifies a lifespan in its guidelines, the lifespan specified in the guidelines may be used as the lifespan of the component. Also, if a manufacturer specifies a warranty period, the warranty period may be used as the lifespan of the component. Furthermore, if a component has a statutory useful life, the end of the useful life may be used as the lifespan of the component.

[0016] The steam turbine 3 is an external combustion engine that converts the thermal energy of steam into rotational power via a blade row and an axle (neither of which are shown) and transmits the rotational power to a driven machine such as a generator. The steam turbine 3 is not limited to any particular application, and may be used for any purpose, such as power generation, industry, or marine applications. The steam turbine 3 may also be, for example, an impulse turbine or a reaction turbine.

[0017] The steam control valve 30 is a device that constitutes the steam turbine 3, and is a valve that controls the amount of steam supplied to the steam turbine 3 to adjust the output of the steam turbine 3. In Figures 2 and 3, a nozzle shut-off speed control type (multi-valve type) steam control valve is shown as an example of the steam control valve 30, but the steam control valve 30 may also be of a throttle speed control type. The following description will be given on the assumption that the steam control valve 30 is of the nozzle shut-off speed control type.

[0018] In this embodiment, the life prediction system 100 predicts the life of a component, namely, a carbon packing 31 (packing) shown in FIGS. 2 and 3 . The carbon packing 31 is a sealing part provided to cover the entire wall surface of the valve stem through hole 321 of the control valve cover 32, as indicated by reference numeral 302 in FIG. 3 . The control valve cover 32 is a cover part that constitutes the upper part of the valve housing 33, as indicated by reference numeral 302 in FIG. 3 . Specifically, the carbon packing 31 contacts the side surface of the valve stem 34 that passes through the valve stem through hole 321, thereby sealing the gap formed between the wall surface of the valve stem through hole 321 and the side surface of the valve stem 34. The gap formed between the wall surface of the valve stem through hole 321 and the side surface of the valve stem 34 is called a "gland."

[0019] The valve stem 34 is a component that transmits an operating force, which is obtained by converting a driving force from a hydraulic servo 35 indicated by reference numeral 301 in Fig. 3 via a lever 36, to a valve disc 37. The valve stem 34 reciprocates up and down within the valve stem through-hole 321, thereby transmitting the operating force to the valve disc 37. The valve disc 37 reciprocates integrally with the valve stem 34, and controls the amount of steam flowing out from a valve hole 39 by moving toward and away from a valve seat 38.

[0020] A bushing 311 through which the valve stem 34 passes is provided at the lower end of the carbon packing 31. The bushing 311 is a bearing that bears the load of the valve stem 34 and also functions as a sliding tube for the valve stem 34. In this way, the steam control valve 30 is a gland packing type steam control valve that has the carbon packing 31 and the bushing 311.

[0021] The steam control valve 30 is not limited to a gland packing type, and may be a gland bush type in which a bush is installed where the carbon packing 31 is installed. Furthermore, the steam control valve 30 may be sealed with a packing made of a material different from that of the carbon packing 31, instead of the carbon packing 31. In other words, a packing made of a material different from that of the carbon packing 31 may be the prediction target of the life prediction system 100. Furthermore, the life prediction system 100 may also predict a component other than the carbon packing 31, for example, the bush 311.

[0022] When the steam control valve 30 is a gland bush type, a vacuum device (not shown) sucks out steam passing through the gland so that high-temperature, high-pressure steam does not pass through the gland from inside the steam control valve 30 and leak to the outside (the atmosphere or a turbine chamber (not shown)). Specifically, a through-hole (not shown) that penetrates the valve stem through-hole 321 is formed in the control valve cover 32, and this through-hole is connected to a pipe (not shown). This pipe is also connected to a vacuum device. When the vacuum device is activated, steam passing through the gland passes through the through-hole and the pipe and is sucked into the vacuum device. When the steam control valve 30 is a gland bush type, the gland is sealed in this manner.

[0023] <Configuration of information processing device> In this embodiment, the information processing device 1 is a desktop personal computer. The information processing device 1 may be, for example, a tablet terminal or a control panel installed in the steam turbine 3. As shown in FIG. 1 , the information processing device 1 includes a communication unit 11, an input unit 12, a display unit 13 (notification unit), a memory unit 14, and a control unit 15.

[0024] The communication unit 11 is a unit that enables the information processing device 1 to communicate with the server 2 (or, in some cases, an external communication device other than the server 2). The input unit 12 accepts input operations by the user to the information processing device 1. The storage unit 14 is a storage device that stores various data used by the information processing device 1.

[0025] The display unit 13 is a display device that displays various images. The display unit 13 also displays the prediction results of the lifespan prediction device 50 (described later) and replacement information (described later). That is, the display unit 13 also functions as a notification unit that notifies the user of the prediction results of the lifespan prediction device 50 through a screen display. However, it is not essential that the display unit 13 display the prediction results of the lifespan prediction device 50. In this case, for example, if the information processing device 1 is equipped with a speaker, the speaker may function as a notification unit by outputting the prediction results of the lifespan prediction device 50 as audio. For example, the lifespan prediction system 100 may include a printer that prints the prediction results of the lifespan prediction device 50 on a paper medium. In this example, the printer also functions as a notification unit. Furthermore, the lifespan prediction system 100 may not have a device that functions as a notification unit.

[0026] The control unit 15 is, for example, a CPU, and performs overall control of each unit of the information processing device 1. The control unit 15 has a lifespan prediction device 50. In this embodiment, the lifespan prediction device 50, one of the devices that make up the lifespan prediction system 100, predicts the lifespan of the carbon packing 31. In FIG. 1 , the lifespan prediction device 50 is built into the control unit 15, but the lifespan prediction device 50 may be provided outside the control unit 15 within the information processing device 1, or may be provided outside the information processing device 1. The lifespan prediction device 50 includes a calculation unit 51 and a prediction unit 52.

[0027] The calculation unit 51 acquires temperature information and operation information to calculate the wear amount J and bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR of the carbon packing 31. The temperature information is information indicating the temperature of the main steam MS shown in FIG. 2. The main steam MS is an example of steam supplied to the steam control valve 30, and is supplied to the inside of the valve housing 33 from an inlet 331 formed in the valve housing 33 shown in FIG. 2. That is, in this embodiment, the steam control valve 30 is a main steam control valve that controls the supply amount of the main steam MS.

[0028] In this embodiment, the temperature information is the detected value of the temperature of the main steam MS detected by the temperature sensor 41 shown in FIG. 1. Hereinafter, the temperature of the main steam MS will be referred to as the "main steam temperature T0 (see equations (2) and (3) below and FIG. 7)." The temperature sensor 41 is, for example, a known temperature sensor, and is installed near the inlet 331 as shown in FIG. 2. The calculation unit 51 acquires the temperature information transmitted from the temperature sensor 41 via the communication unit 11.

[0029] The operation information is information that indicates the amount of movement D (see formula (1) below) of the valve stem 34 when the valve stem 34 performs the reciprocating motion described above. The amount of movement D is an example of the amount of operation of the steam regulating valve 30, and indicates the total distance traveled by the valve stem 34 from the time the valve stem 34 starts to perform its reciprocating motion until an arbitrary time has elapsed. Here, the "operation" in the "operation amount of the steam regulating valve 30" is a concept that includes not only the operation of the drive part of the steam regulating valve 30, such as the reciprocating motion of the valve stem 34, but also unintended operation of the entire steam regulating valve 30, such as vibration of the steam regulating valve 30.

[0030] It is not essential to define the amount of movement D as the total movement distance of the valve stem 34 as described above. For example, the total movement distance of one reciprocating motion of the valve stem 34 may be the amount of movement D. Alternatively, for example, the total movement distance of several reciprocating motions of the valve stem 34 may be the amount of movement D. Furthermore, the amount of movement D may be both the total movement distance of one forward motion and the total movement distance of one return motion of the valve stem 34. In these cases, the calculation unit 51 may use the motion information to calculate the sum of the amount of movement D from the time the valve stem 34 starts its reciprocating motion until an arbitrary time has elapsed.

[0031] In this specification, in one reciprocating motion of the valve stem 34, the motion from the upper side to the lower side is referred to as the forward motion, and the motion from the lower side to the upper side is referred to as the return motion. Therefore, the total movement distance of one forward motion is the distance traveled when the valve stem 34 moves from the uppermost position to the lowermost position. Similarly, the total movement distance of one return motion is the distance traveled when the valve stem 34 moves from the lowermost position to the uppermost position. The total movement distance of one forward motion and the total movement distance of one return motion are both equal.

[0032] In this embodiment, the movement information is a calculated value of the movement amount D calculated using the movement amount D' (see equation (1) below) of the axis 351 of the hydraulic servo 35, indicated by reference numeral 301 in FIG. 3. The movement amount D' of the axis 351 indicates the total movement distance of the axis 351 from the point at which the axis 351 starts reciprocating until a point at which an arbitrary time has elapsed, and is measured by the movement meter 42. The movement meter 42 is a measuring device attached to the hydraulic servo 35, as indicated by reference numeral 301 in FIGS. 1 and 3. The movement meter 42 has a communication unit (not shown) for communicating with the information processing device 1 (and the server 2 in some cases). In other words, the calculation unit 51 acquires the measurement value of the movement amount D' of the axis 351 from the movement meter 42 via the communication unit 11, and calculates the movement amount D using the measurement value, thereby acquiring the movement information. Details of the calculation process of the movement amount D by the calculation unit 51 will be described later.

[0033] It is not essential that the calculation unit 51 use the movement amount D' of the shaft 351 when acquiring the operation information. For example, a known stroke sensor may be provided at a location on the regulator valve cover 32 where the movement amount D can be detected, and the calculation unit 51 may acquire the detection result transmitted from the stroke sensor, thereby acquiring the operation information. In this case, the operation information is the detection value of the movement amount D detected by the stroke sensor described above.

[0034] The wear amount J of the carbon packing 31 (see equation (5) below) is the amount of wear that occurs in the carbon packing 31 due to the reciprocating motion of the valve stem 34 (the operation of the steam control valve). Specifically, the wear amount J indicates the total amount of wear of the valve stem 34 from the point when the valve stem 34 starts to reciprocate until an arbitrary time has elapsed. Using the temperature information, the calculation unit 51 calculates the load F acting on the valve stem 34 due to the thermal expansion of the carbon packing attachment portion 322 (details of which will be described later). h (See equation (5) and FIG. 5 below). The thermal expansion of the carbon packing attachment portion 322 occurs when the carbon packing attachment portion 322 is exposed to the main steam MS supplied into the inside of the valve housing 33 from the inlet 331. Next, the calculation unit 51 calculates the movement amount D and the load F hThe calculation of the wear amount J by the calculation unit 51 will be described in detail later.

[0035] The bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR of the carbon packing 31 is a value obtained by dividing the amount of reduction in bulk specific gravity of the carbon packing 31 by the bulk specific gravity of the carbon packing 31 before exposure to the main steam MS, and is an example of a deterioration index. The deterioration index is an index that indicates the degree of deterioration of the carbon packing 31.

[0036] When the carbon packing 31 is exposed to high-temperature steam such as the main steam MS, the carbon oxidizes and vaporizes. When the carbon vaporizes, the portion of the carbon packing 31 where the carbon vaporized becomes a void, and the bulk density decreases. Therefore, the "amount of decrease in the bulk density of the carbon packing 31" refers to the difference between the bulk density of the carbon packing 31 before being exposed to the main steam MS and the bulk density of the carbon packing 31 after being exposed to the main steam MS for a given period of time.

[0037] Here, a decrease in bulk density, that is, the occurrence of voids in the carbon packing 31, causes a decrease in the sealing performance of the carbon packing 31. For this reason, a decrease in bulk density serves as an index showing the deterioration of the carbon packing 31. Therefore, the bulk density decrease rate UR, which indicates the rate at which voids have increased compared to before the carbon vaporized, serves as a deterioration index showing the degree of deterioration of the carbon packing 31.

[0038] Whether or not carbon vaporization occurs in the carbon packing 31 depends on the main steam temperature T0. Therefore, the calculation unit 51 calculates the bulk specific gravity of the carbon packing 31 after being exposed to the main steam MS for an arbitrary period of time, using temperature information acquired from the temperature sensor 41. Then, the calculation unit 51 calculates the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR using the calculated bulk specific gravity of the carbon packing 31. Note that bulk specific gravity is generally synonymous with density (= mass / volume).

[0039] The prediction unit 52 predicts the life of the carbon packing 31 using the wear amount J and the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR calculated by the calculation unit 51. Specifically, the prediction unit 52 generates a wear life curve V1(D) (see FIG. 6) that indicates the relationship between the wear amount J and the movement amount D. The prediction unit 52 also generates a bulk specific gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0) (see FIG. 7) that indicates the relationship between the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR and the main steam temperature T0. Then, the prediction unit 52 predicts the life of the carbon packing 31 using the generated wear life curve V1(D) and bulk specific gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0). The life prediction process by the prediction unit 52 will be described in detail later.

[0040] <Server configuration> The server 2 is a device that assists the lifespan prediction process of the information processing device 1 (specifically, the lifespan prediction device 50). As shown in FIG. 1, the server 2 includes a communication unit 21, an input unit 22, an output unit 23, a memory unit 24, and a control unit 25. The communication unit 21 is a unit that enables the server 2 to communicate with the information processing device 1 (and possibly an external communication device other than the information processing device 1). The input unit 22 accepts input operations made by the user to the server 2. The output unit 23 is a device that outputs various types of information, and examples of such devices include a display device and a printer that prints various types of information on paper media. The control unit 25 is, for example, a CPU, and performs overall control of each unit of the server 2.

[0041] The memory unit 24 is a storage device that stores various data used by the server 2. The memory unit 24 has a first DB 241 and a second DB 242. The first DB 241 is a database that records a plurality of wear life curves V1(D) that the prediction unit 52 generated in the past. More specifically, the first DB 241 records not only the plurality of wear life curves V1(D) but also a data set for each of the plurality of wear life curves V1(D). This data set is a collection of a plurality of first data sets (details will be described later) and is composed of a plurality of wear amounts J and a plurality of movement amounts D that were used as source data when the prediction unit 52 generated the wear life curve V1(D).

[0042] The second DB 242 is a database that records a plurality of bulk gravity reduction rate curves V2(T0) that have been generated in the past by the prediction unit 52. More specifically, the second DB 242 records not only the plurality of bulk gravity reduction rate curves V2(T0), but also a data set for each of the plurality of bulk gravity reduction rate curves V2(T0). This data set is a collection of a plurality of second data sets (details of which will be described later) and is composed of a plurality of bulk gravity reduction rates UR and a plurality of main steam temperatures T0 that were used as source data when the prediction unit 52 generated the bulk gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0).

[0043] [Processing flow (prediction of carbon packing life and notification of replacement time)] 2 to 8, a process flow in which the life prediction device 50 predicts the life of the carbon packing 31 and notifies the user of the replacement time will be described. This process corresponds to an example of a life prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention.

[0044] <Generation of life wear curve> 4, in step S101, if the calculation unit 51 acquires the measurement value of the movement amount D' of the axis 351 from the movement meter 42 (YES), the calculation unit 51 executes the process of step S102. On the other hand, if the calculation unit 51 cannot acquire the above-mentioned measurement value (NO), the calculation unit 51 attempts to acquire the above-mentioned measurement value again.

[0045] In step S102, the calculation unit 51 calculates the movement amount D using the following formula (1).

[0046] D = A / B × D´ (1) In the above equation (1), A / B is the lever ratio of the lever 36. A is the shortest distance between the rotation center of the rotating shaft 361 of the lever 36 and the fixed center of the fixed shaft 362, as shown by reference numeral 301 in FIG. 3. The fixed shaft 362 is an axis that rotatably fixes the lever 36 to the steam control valve 30. B is the shortest distance between the rotation center of the rotating shaft 361 and the fixed center of the fixed shaft 363. The fixed shaft 363 is an axis that rotatably fixes the lever 36 to the hydraulic servo 35. The calculation unit 51 transmits the movement amount D calculated in step S102 to the prediction unit 52.

[0047] In step S103, if the calculation unit 51 acquires the temperature information (YES), the calculation unit 51 executes the process of step S104. On the other hand, if the calculation unit 51 fails to acquire the temperature information (NO), the calculation unit 51 attempts to acquire the temperature information again.

[0048] In step S104, the calculation unit 51 calculates the elongation ΔW shown in Fig. 5 using the following formula (2). The elongation ΔW is the elongation in the width direction of the carbon packing mounting portion 322 caused by the thermal expansion of the carbon packing mounting portion 322 shown in Fig. 2 (thermal expansion of the regulator valve cover). For the direction of thermal expansion (width direction) of the carbon packing mounting portion 322, please refer to the arrow around the carbon packing mounting portion 322 in Fig. 2. The carbon packing mounting portion 322 is the portion of the regulator valve cover 32 between the center 323 in the width direction and the central axis 324 of the valve stem through hole 321 (dimension W).

[0049] ΔW=W×(T0-T r )×α (2) In the above formula (2), W is the width of the carbon packing attachment portion 322. As shown in FIG. 2, the width W corresponds to the shortest distance between the center 323 and the central axis 324. T r is room temperature, and in this embodiment, the cold temperature is considered to be room temperature. The cold temperature is the air temperature when the components are assembled and set in the manufacturing process of the steam control valve 30, and is set to 20°C in this embodiment. α is the linear expansion coefficient of the control valve cover 32.

[0050] Furthermore, in step S104, the calculation unit 51 calculates the elongation ΔL shown in FIG. 5 using the following equation (3). The elongation ΔL is the elongation in the extension direction of the lid central axis (not shown) that occurs due to thermal expansion of the carbon packing attachment portion 322. The lid central axis is the central axis that extends in the front-to-rear direction of the regulator valve lid 32. For the direction of thermal expansion of the carbon packing attachment portion 322 (extension direction of the lid central axis), please refer to the arrow indicated by reference numeral 301 in FIG. 3.

[0051] ΔL=L×(T0-T r)×α (3) In the above-mentioned formula (3), L is the length in the extension direction of the lid central axis of the carbon packing attachment part 322. As indicated by reference numeral 301 in Fig. 3, the length L corresponds to the shortest distance between the central axis 324 and the side end face 325 of the carbon packing attachment part 322 on the hydraulic servo 35 side.

[0052] Here, the lever 36 is exposed to the atmosphere, not the main steam MS, even during operation of the steam control valve 30. Therefore, the temperature of the lever 36 is constant at approximately room temperature, and thermal expansion of the lever 36 due to the main steam MS is not taken into consideration.

[0053] In step S105, the calculation unit 51 calculates the load F shown in FIG. 5 using the following equation (4): h In the following formula (4), G is the load of the valve stem 34. Furthermore, H3 is the length of the connecting pinion 326. The connecting pinion 326 connects the valve stem 34 and the lever 36.

[0054] F h =G×√(ΔW 2 +ΔL 2 ) / H3···(4) As described above, the carbon packing mounting portion 322 thermally expands due to contact with the main steam MS. This thermal expansion causes elongations ΔW and ΔL as shown in FIG. 5 in the carbon packing mounting portion 322, and the connecting pinion 326 tilts in the direction of each elongation. This tilt causes the load G acting on the connecting pinion 326 to be vector-resolved, with the point of application of the load G between the valve stem 34 and the connecting pinion 326. Of the components of the vector-resolved load G, the horizontal component acts in the direction opposite to the direction of each elongation generated in the carbon packing mounting portion 322, pressing the valve stem 34 against the carbon packing 31.

[0055] This horizontal component is the load F h and the load F hThe pressing of the valve stem 34 against the carbon packing 31 due to the pressure is one cause of wear on the carbon packing 31. In this embodiment, the life prediction device 50 performs the life prediction process taking into account the wear on the carbon packing 31 due to this pressing.

[0056] In step S106, the calculation unit 51 calculates the wear amount J using the following equation (5). In the following equation (5), T is the friction force acting on the carbon packing 31, and K is the specific wear amount. The specific wear amount is the wear volume amount per unit load and per unit movement amount. The wear volume amount is the volume amount of wear occurring in the carbon packing 31. The calculation unit 51 transmits the wear amount J calculated in step S106 to the prediction unit 52.

[0057] J=K×F h ×D (5) In step S107, the calculation unit 51 determines whether the number of calculations of the movement amount D and the wear amount J has reached a first reference number. The first reference number corresponds to the number of first data sets each consisting of the movement amount D and the wear amount J. The first data set is used by the prediction unit 52 to generate the wear life curve V1(D). In other words, the calculation process of the movement amount D and the wear amount J by the calculation unit 51 is periodically performed at a predetermined time span (which can be arbitrarily set by the user) until the number of calculations reaches the first reference number. The first reference number is arbitrarily set by the user, for example, and is stored in advance in the storage unit 14 or a memory (not shown) of the calculation unit 51. The same applies to the second reference number, which will be described later.

[0058] If it is determined that the number of calculations of the movement amount D and the wear amount J has reached the first reference number of times (YES), the calculation unit 51 ends the series of processes of steps S101 to S106. On the other hand, if it is determined that the number of calculations has not reached the first reference number of times (NO), the calculation unit 51 executes the series of processes of steps S101 to S106 again. The series of processes of steps S101 to S107 corresponds to an example of a calculation step in a life prediction method according to an aspect of the present invention.

[0059] In step S108, the prediction unit 52 generates a wear life curve V1(D) shown in FIG. 6 using a plurality of first data sets (the same number as the first reference number of times). Specifically, the prediction unit 52 plots, on a graph, the wear amount J corresponding to the movement amount D for each of the plurality of first data sets. Then, the prediction unit 52 generates a curve that most closely resembles the distribution trend of the plurality of points plotted on the graph, and sets this as the wear life curve V1(D). The prediction unit 52 records the wear life curve V1(D) generated in step S108 in the first DB 241. The processing of step S108 corresponds to an example of a prediction step in a life prediction method according to an aspect of the present invention.

[0060] Note that the wear life curve V1(D) shown in FIG. 6 is merely an example, and wear life curves V1(D) of various shapes can be generated depending on the material of the carbon packing 31, the main steam temperature T0, the speed of the reciprocating movement of the valve stem 34, etc.

[0061] <Generation of bulk density reduction rate curve> In step S201, if the calculation unit 51 acquires temperature information from the temperature sensor 41 (YES), the calculation unit 51 executes the process of step S202. In this case, the calculation unit 51 transmits the acquired temperature information to the prediction unit 52. On the other hand, if the calculation unit 51 cannot acquire the temperature information (NO), the calculation unit 51 attempts to acquire the temperature information again.

[0062] In step S202, the calculation unit 51 calculates the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR using the following formula (6). In the following formula (6), C mi is the weight of the carbon packing 31 at the operating temperature, and C m0is the weight of the carbon packing 31 at the time of manufacturing the steam control valve 30. The operating temperature is the temperature around the carbon packing 31 when the steam control valve 30 is in operation. In this embodiment, the weight of the carbon packing 31 obtained by a carbon packing high-temperature oxidation test is used as the weight of the carbon packing 31 at the operating temperature. The carbon packing high-temperature oxidation test is a test that measures the weight per ring of the carbon packing 31 after it has been held in a furnace for a unit time at each high temperature. The calculation unit 51 transmits the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR calculated in step S202 to the prediction unit 52.

[0063] UR=1-C mi / C m0 ···(6) In step S203, the calculation unit 51 determines whether the number of calculations of the bulk gravity reduction rate UR has reached a second reference number. The second reference number corresponds to the number of second data sets each consisting of the bulk gravity reduction rate UR and a detected value (temperature information) of the main steam temperature T0. The second data set is used by the prediction unit 52 to generate a bulk gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0). In other words, the calculation process of the bulk gravity reduction rate UR by the calculation unit 51 is periodically performed at a predetermined time span (which can be arbitrarily set by the user) until the number of calculations reaches the second reference number.

[0064] If it is determined that the number of calculations of the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR has reached the second reference number (YES), the calculation unit 51 ends the processes of steps S201 and S202. On the other hand, if it is determined that the number of calculations has not reached the second reference number (NO), the calculation unit 51 executes the processes of steps S201 and S202 again. The series of processes of steps S201 to S203 corresponds to an example of a calculation step in a life prediction method according to an aspect of the present invention.

[0065] In step S204, the prediction unit 52 generates the bulk gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0) shown in FIG. 7 using multiple (the same number as the second reference number of times) second data sets. Specifically, the prediction unit 52 plots on a graph the bulk gravity reduction rate UR corresponding to the detected value of the main steam temperature T0 for each of the multiple second data sets. Then, the prediction unit 52 generates a curve that most closely resembles the distribution trend of the multiple points plotted on the graph, and sets this as the bulk gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0). The prediction unit 52 records the bulk gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0) generated in step S204 in the second DB 242. The processing of step S204 corresponds to an example of a prediction step in a life prediction method according to an aspect of the present invention.

[0066] 7 is merely an example, and various shapes of bulk specific gravity reduction rate curves V2(T0) can be generated depending on the material of the carbon packing 31, the main steam temperature T0, etc. Furthermore, the calculation unit 51 may execute the series of processes of steps S101 to S107 and the series of processes of steps S201 to S203 simultaneously, or may execute one of the series of processes before the other. Furthermore, the prediction unit 52 may execute the process of step S108 and the process of step S204 simultaneously, or may execute one of the processes before the other.

[0067] <Carbon packing life prediction and replacement time notification> In step S301, the prediction unit 52 generates a life function f(D, T0) expressed by the following equation (7) using the wear life curve V1(D) generated in step S108 and the bulk specific gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0) generated in step S204.

[0068] f(D,T0)=V1(D)+V2(T0) ···(7) The abrasion life curve V1(D) is a mechanical characteristic function with the movement amount D as a variable. On the other hand, the bulk specific gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0) is a chemical characteristic function with the main steam temperature T0 as a variable. Therefore, by superimposing the abrasion life curve V1(D) and the bulk specific gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0), a life function f(D,T0) is generated that takes into account both the life predicted from the mechanical property aspect and the life predicted from the chemical property aspect. The processing of step S301 corresponds to an example of a prediction step in a life prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention.

[0069] In step S302, the prediction unit 52 transforms the life function f(D, T0) generated in step S301 from the above-mentioned equation (7) to the following equation (8): In the following equation (8), UR(T0) is the bulk specific gravity reduction rate at a certain main steam temperature T0, and λ is a correction coefficient.

[0070] f(D,T0)=K×(1+λ×UR(T0))×D×F h ···(8) There is a correlation between the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR and the force with which the carbon packing 31 tightens the valve stem 34 (hereinafter referred to as "tightening force"). Specifically, as the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR increases, the tightening force decreases. Furthermore, as the tightening force decreases, high-temperature, high-pressure steam becomes more likely to pass from the inside of the steam control valve 30 through the gland, and thus more likely to leak to the outside. This phenomenon in which high-temperature, high-pressure steam becomes more likely to leak to the outside due to a decrease in tightness can be considered equivalent to the phenomenon in which high-temperature, high-pressure steam becomes more likely to leak to the outside due to wear of the carbon packing 31 caused by the reciprocating movement of the valve stem 34.

[0071] Therefore, by regarding the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR as an increase in the specific wear rate, the life function f(D, T0) expressed by the above-mentioned equation (7) can be expressed as an equation for the wear rate of the carbon packing 31, as in the above-mentioned equation (8). The processing of step S302 corresponds to an example of a prediction step in a life prediction method according to one aspect of the present invention.

[0072] In step S303, the prediction unit 52 uses the above-mentioned formula (8) to calculate the period from the time when the valve stem 34 starts reciprocating to the time when an arbitrary time has elapsed (hereinafter referred to as the “arbitrary period t i The prediction unit 52 calculates the value of f(D, T0) a predetermined number of times n within K and F h is calculated from the wear life curve V1(D), and UR(T0) is calculated from the bulk specific gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0). The number of times n to calculate the value of f(D, T0) can also be set arbitrarily by the user. The prediction unit 52 then calculates the life function f(D, T0) shown in Figure 8 from the calculated n values ​​of f(D, T0), and then differentiates the life function f(D, T0) with respect to time to obtain the life slope line df / dt.

[0073] The life inclined line df / dt is a line having a slope of df / dt at a point in time (usually the latest calculation point) after an arbitrary time has elapsed since the valve stem 34 started to reciprocate, as shown in FIG. 8. This latest calculation point is within an arbitrary period t i The life slope line df / dt corresponds to the end of the life function f(D,T0) and the point P on the life function f(D,T0). i (t i ,J i ) is also a tangent to the

[0074] As a result, the prediction unit 52 calculates the time period t from the time when the valve stem 34 starts to reciprocate to the time when the life inclined line df / dt intersects with the design wear limit line SL, as shown in FIG. z The design wear limit line SL is the amount of wear of the carbon packing 31 at the end of its life (hereinafter referred to as the "limit wear amount J"). max Specifically, the design wear limit line SL is a straight line that indicates the point P on the life function f(D, T0). z (t z ,J max ) and is parallel to the horizontal axis of the coordinate system shown in FIG.

[0075] The prediction unit 52 predicts the time period t z Before calculating the limit wear amount J maxThe prediction unit 52 determines the limit wear amount J by using the following equation (9): max In the following equation (9), D s is the maximum amount of movement D, and Y c is the number of years of use of the carbon packing 31 at which replacement of the carbon packing 31 is recommended, and η is the availability factor of the facility in which the steam turbine 3 is installed. h is calculated using data (shape, steam conditions, etc.) at the time when the use of the steam control valve 30 is planned.

[0076] J max =K×F h ×D s ×Y c ×η×3.2×10 7 ···(9) The prediction unit 52 predicts the time period t z is the life of the carbon packing 31. In other words, the period t z is the life of the carbon packing 31 predicted by the prediction unit 52, and is the prediction result of the life prediction device 50. z The predicted lifespan t z The prediction unit 52 calculates the predicted life t z to the display unit 13. The process of step S303 corresponds to an example of a prediction step in a life prediction method according to an aspect of the present invention.

[0077] In step S304, the prediction unit 52 calculates the value of f(D, T0) for an arbitrary period t from the time when the valve stem 34 starts reciprocating to a certain time when the value of f(D, T0) is calculated. i (i: a natural number from 1 to n) and then calculate the predicted life t z and an arbitrary period t i The difference between the calculated value and the estimated value is calculated. Then, the prediction unit 52 determines whether the difference is less than six months. Note that six months, which is the period of determination criteria of the prediction unit 52, is just an example, and can be changed as desired depending on the target of prediction by the lifespan prediction system 100, etc.

[0078] If the answer to step S304 is NO, the prediction unit 52 calculates the value of f(D, T0) in an arbitrary period t from the time when the valve stem 34 starts reciprocating to the next time when the value of f(D, T0) is calculated. i+1 On the other hand, if the answer to step S304 is YES, the prediction unit 52 executes the process of step S304 again for the arbitrary period t i It is determined that it is time to replace the carbon packing 31, and replacement information indicating that it is time to replace the carbon packing 31 is sent to the display unit 13.

[0079] In step S305, the display unit 13 displays the predicted life t z The replacement information displayed on the display unit 13 functions as a replacement alarm that notifies the user that it is time to replace the carbon packing 31.

[0080] When the process of step S305 is completed, the series of processes from when the life prediction device 50 predicts the life of the carbon packing 31 to when to notify the user of the replacement time is completed. Note that the processes for notifying the user of the replacement time of the carbon packing 31, that is, the processes of S304 and S305, are not essential. The life prediction device 50 only needs to perform the processes up to predicting the life of the carbon packing 31, that is, the processes of S101 to S303.

[0081] [Summary] The life prediction system 100 differs from conventional life predictions that use only the wear amount of components in that the prediction unit 52 of the life prediction device 50 predicts the life of the carbon packing 31 using the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR. The wear amount of components is greatly influenced by the structure of the steam control valve, such as the size of the steam control valve and the combination of components. This is because the magnitude of the mechanical force pressing the valve stem against the carbon packing, bushing, etc. varies greatly depending on the structure of the steam control valve.

[0082] On the other hand, the degree of deterioration of a component due to the temperature of the steam supplied to the steam control valve largely depends on the composition of the material from which the component is made. Because the composition of the material from which a component is made remains unchanged after the component is completed, the degree of deterioration of the component is approximately the same as the measured value. For these reasons, the life prediction system 100, which predicts life using the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR, which indicates the degree of deterioration of the carbon packing 31, has higher prediction accuracy than conventional life predictions. In other words, the life prediction system 100 produces less variance in predictions than conventional life predictions.

[0083] In the life prediction system 100, the prediction unit 52 of the life prediction device 50 predicts the life using not only the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR but also the wear amount J. This improves the prediction accuracy of the life prediction. Furthermore, in the life prediction system 100, the calculation unit 51 of the life prediction device 50 calculates the wear amount J using not only the movement amount D but also the load F h This allows the amount of wear J to be calculated with high accuracy, which in turn increases the accuracy of the life prediction. Furthermore, the life prediction system 100 targets the carbon packing 31 for life prediction. This allows the life of the carbon packing 31, which deteriorates and wears more severely when exposed to steam, to be predicted with high accuracy in the gland packing type steam control valve 30. This in turn makes it possible to prevent shutdowns of the steam turbine 3 with a high probability.

[0084] The life prediction system 100 can notify the user of the prediction result of the prediction unit 52, which can accurately predict the life of the carbon packing 31, through a screen display on the display unit 13. This makes it possible to prevent with a high probability the steam turbine 3 from being shut down due to work such as replacing the carbon packing 31 that has reached the end of its life, and improves the availability of the steam turbine 3.

[0085] [Modification] The life prediction device 50 may not use the wear amount J to predict the life of the carbon packing 31, and may predict the life using only a deterioration index such as the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR. In this case, the movement meter 42 is not required, and the calculation unit 51 acquires only temperature information. In addition, the prediction unit 52 generates only the bulk specific gravity reduction rate curve V2(T0).

[0086] The bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR is merely one example of a deterioration index, and other indexes may be used as the deterioration index. For example, a decrease in Young's modulus (elastic coefficient) of the carbon packing 31 may be considered as deterioration of the carbon packing 31, and some index indicating the decrease in Young's modulus may be used as the deterioration index. In this case, if the decrease in Young's modulus is caused by the occurrence of voids in the carbon packing 31, the calculation unit 51 may calculate the deterioration index related to the decrease in Young's modulus using temperature information. Furthermore, for example, focusing on chemical deterioration of the carbon packing 31, some index indicating such deterioration may be used as the deterioration index. Furthermore, focusing on deterioration of components caused by the quality of steam flowing from a boiler (not shown) of the steam turbine 3 to the steam control valve 30, some index indicating such deterioration may be used as the deterioration index.

[0087] The detected value of the main steam temperature T0 is merely one example of temperature information, and information indicating the temperature of steam other than the main steam MS may also be used as the temperature information. For example, the detected value of the temperature of reheat steam may be used as the temperature information. The temperature of the reheat steam can also be detected by a known temperature sensor such as the temperature sensor 41, as with the main steam temperature T0. Here, when the temperature information is the detected value of the temperature of the reheat steam, the steam control valve 30 is an intercept valve (not shown) integrated with a reheat steam shutoff valve. Note that when the steam control valve 30 is this intercept valve, the deterioration index is the bulk specific gravity reduction rate UR of the carbon packing 31, and information indicating the temperature of the steam near the inlet of the reheat steam shutoff valve (not shown) is used as the temperature information.

[0088] In other words, the steam control valve 30 is not limited to the main steam control valve as in this embodiment, and may be any steam control valve as long as it controls the amount of steam supplied to the steam turbine 3. From this perspective, the intercept valve described above, which is an example of the steam control valve 30, does not necessarily have to be integrated with the reheat steam cutoff valve. If the intercept valve is not integrated with the reheat steam cutoff valve, for example, any reheat turbine can be the steam turbine 3.

[0089] The movement amount D is merely one example of the operation information, and information indicating the operation amount of the steam control valve 30 other than the movement amount D may also be used as the operation information. For example, the detected value of the vibration amount of the steam control valve 30 may also be used as the operation information. A known vibration sensor, for example, is used to detect this vibration amount.

[0090] Various variations are conceivable for the configuration of the lifespan prediction system 100. For example, the lifespan prediction device 50 may include only the prediction unit 52, and the server 2 may include the calculation unit 51. Alternatively, the lifespan prediction system 100 may be composed of only the information processing device 1. Furthermore, the control unit 15 may not include the lifespan prediction device 50. In this case, for example, the control unit 15 may include only either the calculation unit 51 or the prediction unit 52, and the control unit 25 may include the other. In other words, it is sufficient that one or more devices constituting the lifespan prediction system 100 include the calculation unit 51 and the prediction unit 52, and there is no limitation as to which devices each include the calculation unit 51 and the prediction unit 52.

[0091] [Contribution to SDGs] The life prediction system 100 can prevent, with a high probability, shutdown of the steam turbine 3 due to component replacement work or the like. Therefore, use of the life prediction system 100 enables stable operation of various plants equipped with the steam turbine 3. In this way, the life prediction system 100 contributes to the development of resilient infrastructure, and can therefore contribute to the achievement of Goal 7 of the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals), which is "Affordable and Clean Energy."

[0092] [Software implementation example] The functions of the lifespan prediction device 50 (hereinafter referred to as the "device") can be realized by a program that causes a computer to function as the device, and a program that causes a computer to function as each control block of the device (particularly the calculation unit 51 and the prediction unit 52). This program is an example of a lifespan prediction program according to one aspect of the present invention.

[0093] In this case, the device includes a computer having at least one control device (e.g., a processor) and at least one storage device (e.g., a memory) as hardware for executing the program. The control device and storage device execute the program, thereby realizing the functions described in the above-mentioned embodiment and modified examples.

[0094] The program may be non-transitory and may be recorded on one or more computer-readable recording media. The recording media may or may not be included in the device. In the latter case, the program may be supplied to the device via any wired or wireless transmission medium.

[0095] In addition, some or all of the functions of each of the control blocks described above can be realized by logic circuits. For example, an integrated circuit in which a logic circuit that functions as each of the control blocks described above is formed is also included in the scope of the present invention. In addition, the functions of each of the control blocks described above can also be realized by, for example, a quantum computer.

[0096] [Additional Notes] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments and modifications, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the claims. For example, embodiments obtained by appropriately combining the technical means disclosed in the above-described embodiments and modifications are also included in the technical scope of the present invention. [Explanation of symbols]

[0097] 3. Steam turbine 13 Display unit (notification unit) 30 Steam control valve 31 Carbon packing (parts, packing) 32 Adjustment valve cover 34 Valve stem 50 Life Prediction Device 51 Calculation section 52 Prediction Department 100 Life prediction system (life notification system) D Travel amount F h load J Wear amount MS Main steam (steam supplied to the steam control valve) t z Estimated lifespan (part lifespan) UR bulk density reduction rate

Claims

1. a calculation unit that acquires temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve that configures a steam turbine and calculates a deterioration index that is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of a component that configures the steam control valve; a prediction unit that predicts a life of the component using the deterioration index calculated by the calculation unit, the calculation unit acquires operation information indicating an operation amount of the steam regulating valve and calculates an amount of wear of the component caused by the operation of the steam regulating valve; the prediction unit predicts a lifespan of the component using the deterioration index and the wear amount of the component calculated by the calculation unit; The calculation unit The movement amount of the valve stem when the valve stem reciprocates is acquired as the operation information; Using the temperature information, a load acting on the valve stem due to thermal expansion of the regulator valve cover is calculated; A life prediction system that calculates the amount of wear of the component using the amount of movement and the load.

2. A calculation unit that acquires temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve that constitutes a steam turbine and calculates a deterioration index that is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of a component that constitutes the steam control valve; a prediction unit that predicts a life of the component using the deterioration index calculated by the calculation unit, The steam control valve has a packing that contacts the valve stem, The calculation unit calculates, as the deterioration index, a bulk specific gravity reduction rate obtained by dividing a reduction in the bulk specific gravity of the packing by the bulk specific gravity of the packing before being exposed to the steam, The prediction unit predicts the life of the packing as the life of the part.

3. The steam control valve has a packing that contacts the valve stem, the calculation unit calculates the amount of wear of the packing as the amount of wear of the part, The life prediction system according to claim 1 , wherein the prediction unit predicts the life of the packing as the life of the part.

4. A lifespan prediction program for causing a computer to function as the lifespan prediction system according to claim 1 , the lifespan prediction program causing a computer to function as the calculation unit and the prediction unit.

5. a calculation unit that acquires temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve that configures a steam turbine and calculates a deterioration index that is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of a component that configures the steam control valve; a prediction unit that predicts a life of the component using the deterioration index calculated by the calculation unit, the calculation unit acquires operation information indicating an operation amount of the steam regulating valve and calculates an amount of wear of the component caused by the operation of the steam regulating valve; the prediction unit predicts a lifespan of the component using the deterioration index and the wear amount of the component calculated by the calculation unit; The calculation unit The movement amount of the valve stem when the valve stem reciprocates is acquired as the operation information; Using the temperature information, a load acting on the valve stem due to thermal expansion of the regulator valve cover is calculated; A life prediction device that calculates the amount of wear of the component using the amount of movement and the load.

6. A calculation unit that acquires temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve that constitutes a steam turbine and calculates a deterioration index that is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of parts that constitute the steam control valve; a prediction unit that predicts a life of the component using the deterioration index calculated by the calculation unit, The steam control valve has a packing that contacts the valve stem, The calculation unit calculates, as the deterioration index, a bulk specific gravity reduction rate obtained by dividing a reduction in the bulk specific gravity of the packing by the bulk specific gravity of the packing before being exposed to the steam, The prediction unit predicts the life of the packing as the life of the part.

7. a calculation unit that acquires temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve that configures a steam turbine and calculates a deterioration index that is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of a component that configures the steam control valve; a prediction unit that predicts a life of the component using the deterioration index calculated by the calculation unit; a notification unit that notifies a user of a prediction result of the prediction unit, the calculation unit acquires operation information indicating an operation amount of the steam regulating valve and calculates an amount of wear of the component caused by the operation of the steam regulating valve; the prediction unit predicts a lifespan of the component using the deterioration index and the wear amount of the component calculated by the calculation unit; The calculation unit The movement amount of the valve stem when the valve stem reciprocates is acquired as the operation information; Using the temperature information, a load acting on the valve stem due to thermal expansion of the regulator valve cover is calculated; A lifespan notification system that calculates the amount of wear of the part using the amount of movement and the load.

8. A calculation unit that acquires temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve that constitutes a steam turbine and calculates a deterioration index that is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of parts that constitute the steam control valve; a prediction unit that predicts a life of the component using the deterioration index calculated by the calculation unit; a notification unit that notifies a user of a prediction result of the prediction unit, The steam control valve has a packing that contacts the valve stem, The calculation unit calculates, as the deterioration index, a bulk specific gravity reduction rate obtained by dividing a reduction in the bulk specific gravity of the packing by the bulk specific gravity of the packing before being exposed to the steam, The prediction unit predicts the life of the packing as the life of the part.

9. a calculation step of acquiring temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve constituting a steam turbine and calculating a deterioration index which is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of a component constituting the steam control valve; a prediction step of predicting a life of the component using the deterioration index calculated in the calculation step, the calculation step includes acquiring operation information indicating an operation amount of the steam regulating valve, and calculating an amount of wear of the component caused by the operation of the steam regulating valve, the prediction step includes predicting a lifespan of the component using the deterioration index and the wear amount of the component calculated in the calculation step, In the calculation step, The movement amount of the valve stem when the valve stem reciprocates is acquired as the operation information; Using the temperature information, a load acting on the valve stem due to thermal expansion of the regulator valve cover is calculated; a wear amount of the component is calculated using the movement amount and the load.

10. A calculation step of acquiring temperature information indicating the temperature of steam supplied to a steam control valve constituting a steam turbine and calculating a deterioration index which is an index indicating the degree of deterioration of a component constituting the steam control valve; a prediction step of predicting a life of the component using the deterioration index calculated in the calculation step, The steam control valve has a packing that contacts the valve stem, The calculation step includes calculating a bulk specific gravity reduction rate as the deterioration index by dividing a reduction in the bulk specific gravity of the packing by the bulk specific gravity of the packing before being exposed to the steam, A life prediction method, wherein the prediction step includes predicting the life of the packing as the life of the part.

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