Supply chain risk control planning system and supply chain risk control planning method

Abstract

A supply chain risk control planning system according to the present invention comprises a computation unit and a storage unit. The storage unit stores control strategy information and control applicability / preparation period information. The control strategy information includes a plurality of control strategies for supply risks for components, and the control applicability / preparation period information is information that indicates the applicability of each control strategy to the supply risks for the components and the lengths of necessary preparation periods for when control strategies are applicable. On the basis of the control strategy information and the control applicability / preparation period information, the computation unit calculates a period that is after the ends of the preparation periods for the control strategies that are applicable to a component targeted for control as a potential implementation period, creates a control scenario that includes a plurality of the control strategies and sets implementation periods for the plurality of control strategies within the potential implementation period, and calculates an evaluation index that evaluates the impact on operations when control based on the control scenario has been implemented.

Description

Supply chain risk countermeasure planning system and supply chain risk countermeasure planning method Incorporation by Reference

[0001] This application claims priority from Japanese Patent Application No. 2024-121433, filed on July 26, 2024, the contents of which are incorporated herein by reference.

[0002] The present invention relates to a technology for supporting the formulation of measures against risks in a supply chain.

[0003] Background of the present invention is the technology described in International Publication No. 2014 / 008386 (Patent Document 1). Patent Document 1 discloses a supply chain management system that can estimate the shipping time, cost, or price of manufactured products at a facility and dynamically control supply chain performance.

[0004] Patent Document 1: International Publication No. 2014 / 008386

[0005] In recent years, the risk of supply chain disruption has increased due to rising geopolitical risks, and there is a need to improve supply chain resilience by reviewing supply chains and formulating countermeasures against risks. Currently, countermeasures against supply chain risks are decided based on the experience of procurement practitioners, necessary preparations are made to implement the decided countermeasures, and after preparations are completed, the decided countermeasures are implemented until the risk is resolved.

[0006] Here, it is necessary to minimize the business impact of risks by obtaining parts quickly in an emergency, such as immediately after a risk occurs, and by implementing measures that are low cost in the medium to long term, but it is difficult to plan the content and implementation period of measures that will achieve this.For example, there are cases where the timing of implementing permanent measures from a medium to long term perspective is misjudged, and measures that involve an increase in purchasing costs implemented to quickly secure parts in an emergency are continued, resulting in increased procurement costs and other major business impacts.

[0007] Therefore, it is necessary to plan countermeasures and implementation periods that minimize financial impacts such as countermeasure costs and opportunity losses, as well as business impacts such as a decline in customer trust and a decline in competitiveness due to delivery delays, from a short-term perspective during an emergency and a medium- to long-term perspective thereafter.

[0008] Patent Document 1 describes dynamically controlling supply chain performance in response to adverse events, but does not describe optimizing indicators such as costs from a medium- to long-term perspective rather than just a short-term perspective in an emergency, or combining multiple measures and controlling the timing of their implementation to achieve this.

[0009] In order to solve at least one of the above problems, the present invention provides a supply chain risk countermeasure planning system comprising a calculation unit and a memory unit, wherein the memory unit holds countermeasure plan information and countermeasure applicability / preparation period information, wherein the countermeasure plan information includes a plurality of countermeasure plans for parts supply risks, and the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information is information indicating whether each of the countermeasure plans is applicable to the parts supply risks and the length of the preparation period required if applicable, and the calculation unit calculates, based on the countermeasure plan information and the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information, a period after the preparation period ends for the countermeasure plans that are applicable to the parts that are the target of countermeasures, as an executable period, creates a countermeasure scenario that includes the plurality of countermeasure plans and in which the execution periods for the plurality of countermeasure plans are set within the executable period, and calculates an evaluation index that evaluates the impact on management if the countermeasures based on the countermeasure scenario are implemented.

[0010] According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to support the formulation of measures to mitigate the business impact of supply chain risks from short-term and medium- to long-term perspectives. Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will become clear from the description of the following examples.

[0011] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram showing product information held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing parts information held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing procurement plan information held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing production plan information held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing parts inventory information held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing missing parts information held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing procurement forecast information held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing countermeasure applicability / preparation period information held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing executable period information held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing processing executed by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram showing an output screen displayed by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0012] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0013] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a supply chain risk countermeasure planning system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0014] The supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 is a device that includes a PC (Personal Computer) such as a server or terminal, and software implemented on the PC, and is equipped with an input / output unit 101, a memory unit 102, a calculation unit 103, and a display unit 104.

[0015] The input / output unit 101 is used to acquire data necessary for processing by the calculation unit 103 and output the processing results, and is configured to include, for example, input devices such as a keyboard and a mouse, a communication device for communicating with the outside, and a recording / playback device for disk-type storage media.

[0016] The memory unit 102 includes input information 105 used in the processing of the calculation unit 103 and output information 106 that stores the processing results, and is configured with a storage device such as an HDD (hard disk drive) or an SSD (solid state drive), and memory.

[0017] The input information 105 includes product information 111, parts information 112, procurement plan information 113, production plan information 114, parts inventory information 115, missing parts information 116, procurement forecast information 117, incident information 118, and countermeasure proposal information 119. The output information 106 includes countermeasure applicability / preparation period information 121, executable period information 122, countermeasure scenario proposal information 123, and evaluation result information 124. These pieces of information will be described later.

[0018] The calculation unit 103 is composed of a risk countermeasure target company / affected component extraction unit 131, a countermeasure component selection unit 132, a countermeasure component number securing calculation unit 133, a countermeasure preparation period and countermeasure execution period calculation unit 134, a countermeasure scenario creation and evaluation index calculation unit 135, and an execution plan calculation unit 136. The processing performed by each of the above units will be described later. The processing of each unit of the calculation unit may be realized, for example, by a processor executing a program corresponding to each unit stored in memory, or each unit may be executed by a dedicated processor.

[0019] The display unit 104 is for displaying the processing results of the calculation unit 103, and is configured to have a display device such as a liquid crystal monitor. The display unit 104 may be included in the input / output unit 101.

[0020] Next, the input information 105 will be described.

[0021] FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram showing the product information 111 held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0022] The product information 111 is information indicating the items and quantities of parts that make up each product, and corresponds to a so-called BOM (Bill of Materials). In the example of Fig. 2, the product information 111 includes a serial number 201, a part name 202, and a required quantity 203. The part name 202 is identification information for each part, and the required quantity indicates the number of each part required to produce each product.

[0023] FIG. 2 shows, as an example, product information 111 related to a product with an item number "P-0001" (hereinafter also referred to as product P-0001). In this example, product P-0001 includes one part with an item number "p-1" (hereinafter also referred to as part p-1; the same applies to other parts), five parts p-2, and eight parts p-3. Although omitted from FIG. 2, product P-0001 may also include other parts, and product information 111 may also include information on products other than product P-0001.

[0024] FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing the parts information 112 held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0025] The part information 112 is information indicating the attributes, specifications, etc. of each part, and includes, for example, a part name 301, a supplier name 302, a part type 303, a detailed specification 304, and similar parts 305. The part name 301 is information that identifies each part. The supplier name 302 is information that identifies the supplier of each part (i.e., the company that supplies it). The part type 303 indicates the type of each part. The detailed specification 304 indicates the detailed specification of each part. The similar parts indicate parts that are similar to each part (e.g., parts that can be substituted).

[0026] The example in Fig. 3 shows that part p-1 is a semiconductor part that complies with the DDR3 standard and is supplied by company A, and is similar to parts b-3 and c-2. Although omitted in Fig. 3, similar information about other parts is held as part information 112.

[0027] FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing the procurement plan information 113 held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0028] Procurement plan information 113 is information indicating the procurement timing and quantity of parts required to produce a product. For example, the procurement timing and quantity of parts required to achieve a production plan indicated by production plan information 114 (described later) are calculated and stored as procurement plan information 113.

[0029] The procurement plan information 113 shown in Figure 4 includes a part name 401, a supplier name 402, a requested delivery date 403, and a quantity 404. The part name 401 is information for identifying each part to be procured. The supplier name 402 is information for identifying the company from which each part is procured (i.e., the supplier). The requested delivery date 403 and the quantity 404 indicate the delivery date and quantity of each part to be procured.

[0030] In the example of Figure 4, a schedule is maintained to procure 50 units of part p-1 from supplier Company A by February 10, 2024, 80 units by February 18, 20 units by February 28, and 60 units by March 10.

[0031] FIG. 4 shows a procurement plan for part p-1 as an example, but procurement plans for other parts are similarly created and stored as procurement plan information 113.

[0032] FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing the production plan information 114 held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0033] The production plan information 114 is information indicating the production plan for each product, and includes, for example, a product name 501, a requested delivery date 502, a delivery destination 503, and a delivery quantity 504. The product name 501 is identification information for each product to be produced. The requested delivery date 502, the delivery destination 503, and the delivery quantity 504 indicate the customer company to which each product is to be delivered, the delivery date for each delivery destination, and the quantity.

[0034] In the example of FIG. 5, a production plan is held in which 10 units of product P-0001 are to be delivered to company D by March 10, 2024, and 20 units are to be delivered to company E by April 10, 2024.

[0035] FIG. 5 shows a production plan for product P-0001 as an example, but procurement plans are similarly created for other products and stored as production plan information 114.

[0036] FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing the parts inventory information 115 held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0037] The parts inventory information 115 is information showing the change in the inventory amount of parts at a factory where a product is manufactured, and includes, for example, a part name 601, a date 602, and an inventory quantity 603. The part name 601 is identification information for each inventory part. The date 602 and the inventory quantity 603 indicate the date and the inventory quantity of each part on that date.

[0038] The example in Figure 6 shows that the inventory quantity of part p-1 will decrease to 100 units on February 1, 2024, 30 units on February 10, and 0 units on February 15. Generally, the inventory quantity of each part is maintained at a roughly constant level by balancing the amount that decreases due to product production with the amount that is replenished through procurement, but if the procurement of parts is halted or delayed due to the occurrence of an incident, as described below, the inventory quantity may decrease, ultimately affecting product production.

[0039] FIG. 6 shows the transition of the inventory quantity of part p-1 as an example, but the transition of the inventory quantity of other parts is similarly acquired and stored as part inventory information 115.

[0040] FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing the shortage parts information 116 held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0041] The missing parts information 116 is information indicating the status of a parts shortage caused by the occurrence of an incident, which will be described later, and includes, for example, a supplier name 701, a part name 702, a time period 703, and a quantity 704. The supplier name 701 is information identifying the supplier company of the missing part. The part name 702 is information identifying the missing part. The time period 703 and the quantity 704 indicate the time period when the shortage of parts will occur and the quantity of the shortage.

[0042] The example in FIG. 7 shows that there will be a shortage of 50 units of part p-1 supplied by company A on February 15, 2024, and a shortage of 60 units on February 20, 2024.

[0043] FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing the procurement forecast information 117 held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0044] Procurement forecast information 117 is information that indicates the predicted procurement timing and quantity of parts required to produce a product. If no incidents or the like occur and procurement is carried out as planned, the procurement forecast information 117 will be the same as the procurement plan information 113. If procurement is not carried out as planned due to an incident or the like, the procurement forecast information 117 will differ from the procurement plan information 113.

[0045] 8 includes a part name 801, a supplier name 802, a requested delivery date 803, and a quantity 804. These correspond to the part name 401, the supplier name 402, the requested delivery date 403, and the quantity 404 of the procurement plan information 113 shown in FIG.

[0046] The example in Figure 8 shows that the procurement quantity of part p-1 from supplier Company A will be 50 units as planned as of February 10, 2024, but will then decrease to 10 units on February 18, and to 0 units on February 28 and March 10 due to an incident or the like.

[0047] The incident information 118 is information about an incident that has occurred. For example, the incident information 118 may include information such as the identification information, type (e.g., earthquake, flood, conflict, epidemic, etc.), location, and time of the incident, and may further include specific information such as factories that have stopped operations due to the incident, affected products, etc.

[0048] The countermeasure proposal information 119 is information that lists countermeasures that may be implemented against supply chain risks, such as a disruption in parts supply due to an incident such as a natural disaster, etc. For example, the countermeasure proposal information 119 may include countermeasure proposals such as increasing inventory, increasing purchase prices, and changing designs.

[0049] Here, inventory buildup refers to a measure to increase the amount of parts in stock, for example, increasing inventory from a quantity equivalent to 30 days' worth of production to a 60-day amount. This reduces the likelihood of opportunity losses due to a drop in production volume even if parts procurement is temporarily stagnant. Increasing the unit purchase price refers to a measure to secure parts on a priority basis by increasing the unit purchase price when a supplier's production volume drops due to an incident or other reason. This reduces the decrease in parts procured and reduces opportunity losses. Design changes refer to a measure to change the design of a product to incorporate a replacement part for a part that has become difficult to procure due to an incident or other reason. If this reduces the unit price of the part, it can reduce long-term increases in procurement costs.

[0050] Whether each measure can actually be applied depends on the product, parts, customer, etc., but the measure proposal information 119 may list all generally conceivable measures.

[0051] Next, the output information 106 will be described.

[0052] FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information 121 held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0053] The countermeasure applicability / preparation period information 121 is information indicating whether countermeasures can be applied to supply chain risks resulting from the occurrence of incidents, etc., and the preparation period if applicable, and includes, for example, a serial number 901, a product name 902, a customer 903, a part name 904, a supplier name 905, a countermeasure proposal 906, whether it can be applied 907, and a preparation period 908.

[0054] The example in Figure 9 shows the feasibility and preparation period for countermeasures against supply chain risks related to parts of product P-0001. In this example, for part p-1, which is procured from company A among the parts of product P-0001 to be delivered to customer 1, a design change is applicable as a countermeasure, and the preparation period for this is estimated to be 30 days. Furthermore, for part p-2, which is procured from company B among the parts of product P-0001 to be delivered to customer 2, a design change is not applicable as a countermeasure. Furthermore, for part p-3, which is procured from company B among the parts of product P-0001 to be delivered to customer 1, an inventory increase is applicable as a countermeasure, and the preparation period for this is estimated to be 5 days.

[0055] Generally, even for the same product, the required levels of delivery deadline compliance, product quality, price, etc. may differ depending on the customer, and therefore the length of time required to determine whether or not a design change is possible and to prepare countermeasures may differ depending on the customer. As will be described later, the applicability of a countermeasure proposal for each combination of product, part, and customer, and the length of the preparation period if applicable, may be estimated based on the track record of countermeasures taken in the past, or may be entered manually.

[0056] FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing the executable period information 122 held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of this invention.

[0057] The executable period information 122 is information indicating the result of calculating the period during which each proposed countermeasure can actually be implemented, taking into account the preparation period, and includes, for example, a component name 1001, a proposed countermeasure 1002, a preparation period 1003, and a date on which the countermeasure can start being implemented 1004. The component name 1001 is identification information for the component to be countermeasured. The proposed countermeasure 1002 indicates the proposed countermeasure for each component. The preparation period 1003 indicates the preparation period for each proposed countermeasure for each component. The date on which the countermeasure can start being implemented 1004 indicates the earliest date on which the proposed countermeasure can be implemented for each component, based on the preparation period.

[0058] FIG. 10 shows, as an example, information regarding proposed countermeasures for part p-1 (i.e., countermeasures to be taken in the event that part p-1 cannot be procured due to a supply chain disruption) when the study start date is January 20, 2024. In this example, the preparation period for inventory buildup is five days, so inventory buildup as a countermeasure can be implemented from January 25, 2024, five days after the study start date. Similarly, the preparation period for increasing the purchase price is also five days, so inventory buildup as a countermeasure can be implemented from January 25, 2024, five days after the study start date. Although omitted from FIG. 10 , the possible start date for other countermeasures (e.g., design changes, etc.) is also calculated based on the preparation period so that the countermeasure can be implemented after the preparation period ends.

[0059] FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing the countermeasure scenario proposal information 123 held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0060] The countermeasure scenario proposal information 123 is information indicating the contents of each scenario proposal created by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 as a countermeasure against supply chain risks, and includes, for example, a serial number 1101, countermeasure content 1102, countermeasure content details 1103, preparation period 1104, and implementation period 1105. The serial number 1101 is a serial number assigned to each of one or more countermeasures included in one countermeasure scenario proposal. The countermeasure content 1102 and countermeasure content details 1103 indicate the content and details of each countermeasure. The preparation period 1104 indicates the preparation period required to implement each countermeasure. The implementation period 1105 indicates the period during which each countermeasure is implemented.

[0061] 11 shows an example of one of multiple countermeasure scenario proposals created as countermeasures against a certain supply chain risk. This countermeasure scenario proposal includes at least three countermeasures with serial numbers 1101 (1) to (3).

[0062] Countermeasure (1) is to change the unit price of the parts from 10,000 yen to 15,000 yen. Preparation for this countermeasure will take place from January 20 to February 1, 2024, and the countermeasure is scheduled to be implemented from February 1 to 15, 2024.

[0063] Countermeasure (2) is to increase the inventory of parts from 30 days to 60 days. Preparation for this countermeasure will take place from January 20 to February 1, 2024, and the countermeasure is scheduled to be implemented from February 5 to March 1, 2024.

[0064] Measure (3) is a measure to change the parts supplier from Company A to Company C. Preparation of this measure will take place from January 20th to February 20th, 2024, and the measure is set to be implemented from February 20th, 2024, with no end date set for the implementation.

[0065] As described above, multiple proposed countermeasure scenarios are actually created. While the example shown in FIG. 11 is one example, other proposed countermeasure scenarios may not include at least one of the following countermeasures: a unit price change, inventory buildup, and selection of an alternative supplier. Alternatively, in the case of a unit price change, a plan may be created that involves a different unit price change amount, a plan may involve a different inventory buildup amount, or a plan may involve a different alternative supplier company. If the preparation period for each countermeasure differs depending on the details of the countermeasure, an appropriate preparation period is set. Furthermore, plans may be created that involve different periods from the end of the preparation period until the start of implementation, or plans may be created that involve different implementation completion times.

[0066] FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram showing the evaluation result information 124 held by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0067] The evaluation result information 124 is information indicating the results of evaluating each proposed countermeasure scenario, and includes, for example, a countermeasure scenario number 1201, a procurement cost 1202, an inventory cost 1203, an opportunity loss amount 1204, and a total 1205. The countermeasure scenario number 1201 is an identification number for the created countermeasure scenario. The procurement cost 1202, the inventory cost 1203, the opportunity loss amount 1204, and the total 1205 indicate the procurement cost, inventory cost, opportunity loss amount, and their totals calculated for each proposed countermeasure scenario.

[0068] Here, procurement costs refer to the costs of procuring parts that arise when the proposed countermeasure scenario is implemented. For example, if a unit price is changed, the cost resulting from the difference in unit price is included in the procurement costs. Also, if a design change is required to procure an alternative part from an alternative supplier, the cost of that design change is included in the procurement costs. Furthermore, if negotiations with a new supplier are required, the cost of those negotiations is included in the procurement costs.

[0069] Inventory cost refers to the cost of inventory management that occurs when a proposed countermeasure scenario is implemented. For example, if inventory is increased, the cost of securing and managing a place to store the increased inventory is included in the inventory cost.

[0070] Opportunity loss refers to the amount of opportunity loss that occurs when a proposed countermeasure scenario is implemented. For example, if a certain countermeasure scenario is implemented and production cannot be carried out according to the production plan due to a stagnation in the supply of parts, resulting in a delay in product delivery, the decrease in sales due to the delayed delivery will be included in the opportunity loss amount.

[0071] Generally, when measures are taken to secure the required number of parts by increasing the purchase price, opportunity losses are reduced, but procurement costs tend to increase. In particular, if such measures are continued over a long period of time, the increased procurement costs will be maintained for a long period of time.

[0072] When taking measures such as stockpiling inventory, opportunity losses can be reduced, but inventory costs tend to increase. If inventory stockpiling continues for a long period of time, the increased inventory costs will be maintained for a long period of time.

[0073] When implementing measures such as procuring alternative parts, if a design change is required, the cost of the design change will be incurred as a procurement cost. Furthermore, if the alternative parts are procured from a new supplier, the cost of negotiating with that supplier will also be added to the procurement cost. Furthermore, if design changes and negotiations are required, inventory parts are likely to be depleted in the meantime, resulting in short-term opportunity losses. On the other hand, if the unit price of the alternative parts is equivalent to that of the original parts, long-term procurement costs will be reduced.

[0074] Although the example in Figure 12 shows the above three costs, other costs may also be evaluated. For example, the cost of developing a countermeasure scenario plan may be calculated. In the above example, it is assumed that the cost of developing a countermeasure scenario plan is included in the procurement cost, but this cost may also be separated from the other costs and held as an independent cost.

[0075] 12, the opportunity loss amount 1204 for countermeasure scenario plan 1 is 0, but the inventory cost 1203 is very large. On the other hand, countermeasure scenario plan 2 and countermeasure scenario plan 3 incur a small opportunity loss amount 1204, but keep the inventory cost 1203 low. As a result, the total value 1205 for countermeasure scenario plan 2 is the smallest.

[0076] FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing the processing executed by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0077] First, the risk countermeasure target company / affected component extraction unit 131 extracts companies, products, components, etc. for which countermeasures against supply chain risks are to be created (step S1301). For example, the risk countermeasure target company / affected component extraction unit 131 extracts suppliers whose parts supply to the company will be disrupted and the components purchased from those suppliers based on information about incidents that have already occurred or are expected to occur in the future. Furthermore, the risk countermeasure target company / affected component extraction unit 131 extracts products that use those parts from among the products produced in-house as products that will have an impact on production.

[0078] Next, the countermeasure part selection unit 132 selects parts to be countered (step S1302). For example, the countermeasure part selection unit 132 may predict the actual procurement status for each part procurement plan based on the procurement plan information 113 and the incident information 118, and generate procurement forecast information 117 and shortage part information 116 based on the prediction result. Then, the countermeasure part selection unit 132 selects parts to be countered on a priority basis from among the shortage parts. The selection criteria at this time are arbitrary, and for example, the part with the largest shortage may be selected as the target of the countermeasure.

[0079] Next, the calculation unit 133 for calculating the number of parts to be secured by the countermeasure calculates the number of parts to be secured by the countermeasure (step S1303). For example, the calculation unit 133 for calculating the number of parts to be secured by the countermeasure may calculate the number of missing parts stored in the missing parts information 116 for the parts selected in step S1302 as the number of parts to be secured by the countermeasure.

[0080] Next, the calculation unit 134 for the preparation period and the period during which the countermeasure can be implemented for each countermeasure calculates the preparation period and the period during which the countermeasure can be implemented for each countermeasure (step S1304). For example, the calculation unit 134 for the preparation period and the period during which the countermeasure can be implemented for each countermeasure, based on information such as the part that is the target of the countermeasure, the supplier company of that part, the product that incorporates that part, and the customer company to which that product is delivered, determines whether each countermeasure held in the countermeasure plan information 119 can be applied as a countermeasure for that part, and if so, extracts the preparation period.

[0081] In this case, the calculation unit 134 for the preparation period and the execution period of each proposed countermeasure may extract the applicability and preparation period of a countermeasure corresponding to a combination of parts, products, and customers from the track record of countermeasures implemented in the past. If there is no track record of countermeasures corresponding to the target combination of parts, products, and customers, estimates of this information may be extracted from the track record of countermeasures corresponding to similar combinations of parts, products, and customers. For example, a combination of parts, products, and customers with characteristics similar to the target combination of parts, products, and customers may be identified, and the applicability and preparation period of a countermeasure may be estimated from the track record of countermeasures corresponding to the identified similar combination. Alternatively, a user, such as a factory procurement officer, may input this information based on their experience. The extracted or input information is stored as countermeasure applicability / preparation period information 121.

[0082] Then, the calculation unit 134 for the preparation period and the execution period of the countermeasure for each countermeasure plan calculates the date on which the execution of the countermeasure can be started based on the extracted preparation period, and stores the calculated date as the execution period information 122. Specifically, the period after the preparation period for each countermeasure ends becomes the execution period.

[0083] Next, the countermeasure scenario creation and evaluation index calculation unit 135 creates countermeasure scenario proposals based on the calculated feasible periods of each countermeasure proposal, calculates evaluation indexes, and identifies countermeasure scenario proposals that will improve the evaluation indexes (step S1305). For example, the countermeasure scenario creation and evaluation index calculation unit 135 may create multiple countermeasure scenario proposals, calculate evaluation indexes for each of them, and identify the countermeasure scenario proposal that will optimize the evaluation index.

[0084] In this case, the countermeasure scenario creation and evaluation index calculation unit 135 may create multiple countermeasure scenario proposals, each of which includes one or more countermeasures and has different parameters such as the implementation period and content of the countermeasures, and identify the one among them that will produce the optimal evaluation index.

[0085] Alternatively, the countermeasure scenario creation and evaluation index calculation unit 135 may create one countermeasure scenario proposal, and repeatedly calculate the evaluation index while changing its parameters, to identify the countermeasure scenario proposal that optimizes the evaluation index. In the latter case, any method, such as the gradient method, can be applied.

[0086] The created countermeasure scenario proposal is stored as countermeasure scenario proposal information 123, and the calculated evaluation index is stored as evaluation result information 124. An example of the countermeasure scenario proposal is as described with reference to FIG.

[0087] Next, the execution plan calculation unit 136 determines the proposed countermeasure scenario to be executed and instructs its execution (step S1306). For example, the execution plan calculation unit 136 may display the multiple proposed countermeasure scenarios and their evaluation indexes created in step S1305, allow the user to check their contents, select one, and modify the content if necessary to determine the proposed countermeasure scenario to be executed. Alternatively, the execution plan calculation unit 136 may display the proposed countermeasure scenario that optimizes the evaluation index identified in step S1305, allow the user to check its contents and modify the content if necessary to determine the proposed countermeasure scenario to be executed.

[0088] This completes the processing of the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100.

[0089] FIG. 14 is an explanatory diagram showing an output screen displayed by the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[0090] 14 includes a part information display section 1401, a countermeasure proposal information display section 1402, and a countermeasure scenario and index evaluation result display section 1403. This output screen 1400 may be displayed by the display section 104 in accordance with an instruction from the calculation section 103, for example, or may be displayed on a display device of a terminal device connected to the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100 via a network (not shown).

[0091] As an example, part information display section 1401 shows information about part p-1. In this example, the original procurement plan for part p-1 extracted from procurement plan information 113 and the transition of the inventory amount of part p-1 extracted from part inventory information 115 are displayed as graphs with the horizontal axis representing date. When the actual procurement of part p-1 stagnates due to the occurrence of an incident or the like compared to the original procurement plan, the inventory amount gradually decreases and eventually reaches zero.

[0092] The countermeasure proposal information display section 1402 displays one of multiple countermeasure scenario proposals that are created when part p-1 is selected as the target of countermeasures, as an example. In this example, countermeasure proposal scenario proposals include inventory buildup, purchase price increase, and design change, and the preparation period for each countermeasure, the possible start date for implementation, and the possible countermeasure period based on that are shown in table format and in a bar chart with the date on the horizontal axis. As mentioned above, multiple countermeasure proposal scenario proposals are created by changing the combination of countermeasure proposals to be implemented and the start date for implementation of each countermeasure proposal, etc.

[0093] The countermeasure scenario and index evaluation result display section 1403 displays the evaluation index calculated for each countermeasure scenario proposal created and details of each countermeasure scenario proposal. Specifically, the procurement cost, inventory cost, opportunity loss, and their totals calculated for each countermeasure scenario proposal are displayed as evaluation result information 1404. Here, conditions 1 to 4 correspond to the countermeasure scenario proposals created, respectively. This information corresponds to the evaluation result information 124 shown in FIG. 12.

[0094] Also, details of the countermeasure scenario proposal selected by the user are displayed as countermeasure scenario details 1405. This example shows an example in which condition 4, that is, the fourth countermeasure scenario proposal, was selected. This example shows details of the countermeasure scenario proposal in which a procurement contract is made to increase the purchase price of part p-1 from 10,000 yen to 15,000 yen from February 1 to February 28, a procurement contract is made to increase the inventory amount of part p-1 from 30 days to 60 days from February 10 to March 15, and further, the supplier of part p-1 (or its substitute part) is changed from company A to company C after March 10.

[0095] The user may refer to the output screen 1400 to check the evaluation index values ​​and detailed contents of each countermeasure scenario proposal, and may decide to implement one of the countermeasure scenario proposals, or may modify the countermeasure scenario proposal to be implemented as necessary.

[0096] This helps companies compare costs from multiple perspectives, such as procurement costs, inventory costs, and opportunity losses, and develop measures to minimize the business impact of supply chain risks not only in the short term but also in the medium to long term.

[0097] For example, by taking measures to secure parts by increasing the purchase price immediately after the preparation period and to increase inventory, short-term opportunity losses due to parts shortages can be reduced, and by ending the measures at the appropriate time and switching to cheaper alternative parts from alternative suppliers (and making design changes if necessary), increases in procurement costs and inventory costs in the medium to long term can be reduced.In such cases, the system supports the selection of cost-minimizing measures and the setting of implementation start and end dates.

[0098] The system according to the embodiment of the present invention may be configured as follows, for example.

[0099] (1) A supply chain risk countermeasure planning system (e.g., supply chain risk countermeasure planning system 100) includes a calculation unit (e.g., calculation unit 103) and a storage unit (e.g., storage unit 102), and the storage unit holds countermeasure plan information (e.g., countermeasure plan information 119) and countermeasure applicability / preparation period information (e.g., countermeasure applicability / preparation period information 121), the countermeasure plan information includes a plurality of countermeasure plans for parts supply risks, and the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information indicates whether each of the countermeasure plans is applicable to the parts supply risks and the length of the preparation period required if applicable. The calculation unit calculates, based on the countermeasure plan information and the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information, the period after the preparation period ends as an executable period for the countermeasure plans that are applicable to the parts that are the target of the countermeasures (e.g., step S1304), creates a countermeasure scenario that includes the multiple countermeasure plans and whose execution periods are set within the executable periods (e.g., creation of countermeasure scenario proposals in step S1305), and calculates an evaluation index that evaluates the impact on management when the countermeasures based on the countermeasure scenario are implemented (e.g., calculation of evaluation index in step S1305).

[0100] This will help companies develop measures to mitigate the business impact of supply chain risks from both a short-term and medium- to long-term perspective.

[0101] (2) In the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system described in (1) above, the calculation unit creates multiple countermeasure scenarios that differ in at least one of the content of the countermeasure plans included and the implementation period, and calculates the evaluation index for each of the multiple countermeasure scenarios.

[0102] This makes it possible to select from multiple countermeasure scenarios the one that is most effective in reducing the business impact.

[0103] (3) In the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system described in (1) above, the evaluation index includes at least one of the procurement cost for procuring the parts, the inventory cost for storing the parts, and the amount of opportunity loss due to a shortage of the parts.

[0104] This will help develop measures to reduce business impact from multiple perspectives.

[0105] (4) In the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system described in (1) above, the countermeasure scenario in which the evaluation index is optimized is identified by repeatedly changing at least one of the content of the countermeasure plan included in the countermeasure scenario and the implementation period of the countermeasure plan, and calculating the evaluation index.

[0106] This makes it possible to create a countermeasure scenario that is more effective in reducing the impact on business.

[0107] (5) In the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system described in (1) above, the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information includes information that associates a combination of a part, a product containing the part, and a customer of the product with the applicability of each of the countermeasure proposals for the supply risk of the part and the length of the preparation period if applicable, and the calculation unit estimates the applicability of each of the countermeasure proposals for the supply risk of the part and the length of the preparation period if applicable based on measures that have been implemented in the past corresponding to the combination of the part that is the target of the countermeasure, the product containing the part, and the customer of the product, and stores the estimate as the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information.

[0108] This allows you to create actionable countermeasure scenarios based on past performance.

[0109] (6) In the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system described in (5) above, when the calculation unit is unable to obtain information on countermeasures previously implemented for a combination of the part that is the target of the countermeasure, the product that includes the part, and the customer of the product, the calculation unit identifies a combination of parts, products, and customers that has characteristics similar to the combination of the part that is the target of the countermeasure, the product that includes the part, and the customer of the product, and based on the countermeasures previously implemented for the identified combination, estimates whether each of the countermeasure proposals can be applied to the supply risk of the part that is the target of the countermeasure and, if so, the length of the preparation period, and stores the information on whether the countermeasure can be applied and the preparation period.

[0110] This allows you to create actionable countermeasure scenarios based on past performance.

[0111] (7) In the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system described in (1) above, the plurality of countermeasure plans include changes to the purchase price of parts, changes to the inventory amount of parts, and changes to the supplier of parts.

[0112] This will help develop measures to reduce business impact from multiple perspectives.

[0113] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, but includes various modifications. For example, the above-described embodiments have been described in detail to provide a better understanding of the present invention, and the present invention is not necessarily limited to those including all of the described configurations. Furthermore, it is possible to replace part of the configuration of one embodiment with the configuration of another embodiment, or to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of one embodiment. Furthermore, it is possible to add, delete, or replace part of the configuration of each embodiment with other configurations.

[0114] Furthermore, the above-described configurations, functions, processing units, processing means, etc. may be partially or entirely implemented in hardware, for example, by designing them as integrated circuits. The above-described configurations, functions, etc. may also be implemented in software, with a processor interpreting and executing a program that implements each function. Information such as programs, tables, and files that implement each function can be stored in storage devices such as nonvolatile semiconductor memory, hard disk drives, and solid-state drives (SSDs), or in computer-readable, non-transitory data storage media such as IC cards, SD cards, and DVDs.

[0115] In addition, the control lines and information lines shown are those that are considered necessary for the explanation, and not all control lines and information lines in the product are necessarily shown. In reality, it can be considered that almost all components are interconnected.

Claims

1. A supply chain risk countermeasure planning system comprising: a calculation unit and a memory unit, wherein the memory unit holds countermeasure plan information and countermeasure applicability / preparation period information, wherein the countermeasure plan information includes a plurality of countermeasure plans for parts supply risks, and the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information is information indicating whether each of the countermeasure plans is applicable to the parts supply risks and the length of the preparation period required if applicable, and the calculation unit calculates, based on the countermeasure plan information and the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information, the period after the preparation period ends for the countermeasure plans that are applicable to the parts that are the target of the countermeasures, as an execution period, creates a countermeasure scenario that includes the plurality of countermeasure plans and in which the execution periods for the plurality of countermeasure plans are set within the execution period, and calculates an evaluation index to evaluate the impact on management if the measures based on the countermeasure scenario are implemented.

2. A supply chain risk countermeasure planning system as described in claim 1, characterized in that the calculation unit creates multiple countermeasure scenarios that differ in at least one of the content of the countermeasure plans included and the implementation period, and calculates the evaluation index for each of the multiple countermeasure scenarios.

3. A supply chain risk countermeasure planning system as described in claim 1, characterized in that the evaluation index includes at least one of the procurement cost for procuring the parts, the inventory cost for storing the parts, and the amount of opportunity loss due to a shortage of the parts.

4. A supply chain risk countermeasure planning system as described in claim 1, characterized in that the countermeasure scenario that optimizes the evaluation index is identified by repeatedly changing at least one of the content of the countermeasure plan included in the countermeasure scenario and the implementation period of the countermeasure plan, and calculating the evaluation index.

5. A supply chain risk countermeasure planning system as described in claim 1, wherein the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information includes information that associates a combination of a part, a product containing that part, and a customer for that product with the applicability of each of the countermeasure proposals for the supply risk of that part and the length of the preparation period if applicable, and the calculation unit estimates the applicability of each of the countermeasure proposals for the supply risk of that part and the length of the preparation period if applicable based on measures that have been implemented in the past corresponding to the combination of the part that is the target of the measure, the product containing that part, and the customer for that product, and stores this as the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information.

6. A supply chain risk countermeasure planning system as described in claim 5, characterized in that, when the calculation unit is unable to obtain information on countermeasures previously implemented for a combination of the part that is the target of the countermeasure, the product that includes the part, and the customer of the product, it identifies a combination of parts, products, and customers that has characteristics similar to that of the combination of the part that is the target of the countermeasure, the product that includes the part, and the customer of the product, and, based on the measures previously implemented for the identified combination, estimates whether each of the proposed countermeasures can be applied to the supply risk of the part that is the target of the countermeasure and, if so, the length of the preparation period, and retains this information as information on whether the countermeasure can be applied and the preparation period.

7. A supply chain risk countermeasure planning system as described in claim 1, characterized in that the multiple countermeasure plans include changes to the purchase price of parts, changes to the inventory quantity of parts, and changes to the source of parts procurement.

8. A supply chain risk countermeasure planning method executed by a supply chain risk countermeasure planning system, the supply chain risk countermeasure planning system comprising: a calculation unit; and a memory unit; the memory unit holds countermeasure plan information and countermeasure applicability / preparation period information; the countermeasure plan information includes a plurality of countermeasure plans for parts supply risks; the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information is information indicating whether each of the countermeasure plans is applicable to the parts supply risks and, if applicable, the length of the preparation period required; the supply chain risk countermeasure planning method comprising: a procedure by the calculation unit calculating, based on the countermeasure plan information and the countermeasure applicability / preparation period information, a period after the preparation period ends for the countermeasure plans that are applicable to the parts that are the target of the countermeasures; a procedure by the calculation unit creating a countermeasure scenario that includes one or more of the countermeasure plans and in which the implementation period for the one or more countermeasure plans is set within the implementation period; and a procedure by the calculation unit calculating an evaluation index for evaluating the impact on management if a countermeasure based on the countermeasure scenario is implemented.

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