Marginal emission reduction cost-based ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses a marginal emission reduction cost-based ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation method and system, and relates to the technical field of ship emission reduction, and the method comprises the steps: collecting and building a ship greenhouse gas emission reduction measure; establishing a carbon pricing mechanism, and constructing a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model based on the carbon pricing mechanism; carrying out cost-benefit analysis on greenhouse gas emission reduction measures by utilizing the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model, and carrying out cost-benefit sorting; key parameter extraction is carried out on the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model, influence analysis of parameter change and cost effectiveness is carried out based on a key parameter extraction result, and a sensitivity analysis result is established; and generating a ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation result according to the sensitivity analysis result and the cost-benefit sequence. According to the method, the technical problems that the evaluation method in the prior art is single and multi-dimensional economic benefits and market fluctuation influences cannot be comprehensively considered are solved, and the technical effect of improving the economic evaluation precision of the emission reduction measures is achieved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of ship emission reduction, and in particular to a ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation method and system based on marginal emission reduction costs. Background Art

[0002] As global requirements for carbon reduction continue to increase, the shipping industry is facing tremendous pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, existing evaluation methods for greenhouse gas emission reduction measures for ships often focus on a single technical or economic indicator and lack a comprehensive analysis of multi-dimensional economic benefits, especially when facing fluctuations in market factors such as fuel prices and carbon pricing. It is difficult to provide an accurate cost-benefit evaluation. In addition, when companies choose emission reduction measures, they lack an effective comparison of the long-term economic impact of various plans, resulting in high costs and low benefits during implementation. To solve these problems, there is an urgent need for an evaluation method that can comprehensively consider multiple factors such as investment, operation and maintenance, fuel savings and carbon emission reduction, so as to improve the economic benefits and decision-making accuracy of emission reduction measures. Summary of the invention

[0003] The present application provides a method and system for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction of ships based on marginal emission reduction cost, which is used to solve the technical problem that the existing technical evaluation method is single and cannot comprehensively consider the multi-dimensional economic benefits and the impact of market fluctuations.

[0004] In view of the above problems, the present application provides a method and system for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction of ships based on marginal emission reduction cost.

[0005] In a first aspect of the present application, a method for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction of ships based on marginal emission reduction costs is provided, the method comprising:

[0006] Collect and establish greenhouse gas emission reduction measures for ships, including operational energy efficiency measures, technical energy efficiency measures, renewable energy utilization measures and alternative fuels; establish a carbon pricing mechanism, and construct a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model based on the carbon pricing mechanism. The calculation formula of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is as follows: Among them, MAC cp is the marginal emission reduction cost, AI is the annualized investment cost, OP is the annual operation and maintenance cost, FS is the annual fuel cost savings, CS is the cost savings brought by greenhouse gas emission reduction, and CR is the annual greenhouse gas emission reduction; the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is used to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures and to rank the costs and benefits; the key parameters of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model are extracted, and the impact of parameter changes and cost-benefit analysis is conducted based on the key parameter extraction results, and the sensitivity analysis results are established; the evaluation results of ship greenhouse gas emission reduction are generated based on the sensitivity analysis results and cost-benefit ranking.

[0007] The second aspect of the present application provides a ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation system based on marginal emission reduction costs, the system comprising:

[0008] A gas emission reduction measures collection module, which collects and establishes greenhouse gas emission reduction measures for ships, and the greenhouse gas emission reduction measures include operational energy efficiency measures, technical energy efficiency measures, renewable energy utilization measures and alternative fuels; a carbon pricing mechanism establishment module, which establishes a carbon pricing mechanism and constructs a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model based on the carbon pricing mechanism. The calculation formula of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is as follows: Among them, MAC cp is the marginal emission reduction cost, AI is the annualized investment cost, OP is the annual operation and maintenance cost, FS is the annual fuel cost savings, CS is the cost savings brought by greenhouse gas emission reduction, and CR is the annual greenhouse gas emission reduction; a cost-benefit analysis module, which uses the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model to perform cost-benefit analysis of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures and conducts cost-benefit ranking; an impact analysis module, which extracts key parameters of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model, and conducts impact analysis of parameter changes and cost-benefit based on the key parameter extraction results, and establishes sensitivity analysis results; a gas emission reduction evaluation module, which generates a ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation result according to the sensitivity analysis results and cost-benefit ranking.

[0009] One or more technical solutions provided in this application have at least the following technical effects or advantages:

[0010] This application collects and establishes greenhouse gas emission reduction measures for ships, which include operational energy efficiency measures, technical energy efficiency measures, renewable energy utilization measures and alternative fuels; establishes a carbon pricing mechanism, and constructs a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model based on the carbon pricing mechanism. The calculation formula of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is as follows: Among them, MAC cpis the marginal emission reduction cost, AI is the annualized investment cost, OP is the annual operation and maintenance cost, FS is the annual fuel cost savings, CS is the cost savings brought by greenhouse gas emission reduction, and CR is the annual greenhouse gas emission reduction; the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is used to perform cost-benefit analysis of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures, and cost-benefit ranking is performed; key parameters of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model are extracted, and the impact analysis of parameter changes and cost-benefit is performed based on the key parameter extraction results, and sensitivity analysis results are established; ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation results are generated according to the sensitivity analysis results and cost-benefit ranking. The present invention solves the technical problem that the existing technical evaluation method is single and cannot comprehensively consider the multi-dimensional economic benefits and market fluctuations. By collecting greenhouse gas emission reduction measures of ships, establishing a carbon pricing mechanism and constructing a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model, calculating the annualized investment, operation and maintenance, fuel savings and other costs, using the model to perform cost-benefit analysis and ranking, combining key parameter extraction and sensitivity analysis, generating ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation results, and achieving the technical effect of improving the accuracy of economic evaluation of emission reduction measures. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0011] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0012] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a method for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction of ships based on marginal emission reduction costs provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0013] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the structure of a greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation system for ships based on marginal emission reduction costs provided in an embodiment of the present application.

[0014] Explanation of the reference numerals: gas emission reduction measures collection module 11, carbon pricing mechanism establishment module 12, cost-benefit analysis module 13, impact analysis module 14, gas emission reduction evaluation module 15. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0015] This application provides a ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation method and system based on marginal emission reduction costs, aiming to solve the technical problem that the existing technical evaluation method is single and cannot comprehensively consider multi-dimensional economic benefits and market fluctuations. By collecting greenhouse gas emission reduction measures of ships, a carbon pricing mechanism is established and a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is constructed. The annualized investment, operation and maintenance, fuel savings and other costs are calculated, and the model is used to perform cost-benefit analysis and ranking. Combined with key parameter extraction and sensitivity analysis, the evaluation results of ship greenhouse gas emission reduction are generated, thereby achieving the technical effect of improving the accuracy of economic evaluation of emission reduction measures.

[0016] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present application, rather than all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0017] It should be noted that any variations of the terms "include" and "have" are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions. For example, a process, method, system, product or server that includes a series of steps or units is not necessarily limited to those steps or units explicitly listed, but may include other steps or modules that are not explicitly listed or inherent to these processes, methods, products or devices.

[0018] Embodiment 1, as Figure 1 As shown, the present application provides a method for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction of ships based on marginal emission reduction costs, the method comprising:

[0019] Step S100: Collect and establish greenhouse gas emission reduction measures for ships, wherein the greenhouse gas emission reduction measures include operational energy efficiency measures, technical energy efficiency measures, renewable energy utilization measures and alternative fuels.

[0020] In the embodiment of the present application, when collecting and establishing greenhouse gas emission reduction measures for ships, all relevant measure data are extracted from information pre-stored in the historical database. Greenhouse gas emission reduction measures include operational energy efficiency measures, technical energy efficiency measures, renewable energy utilization measures and alternative fuels.

[0021] Operational energy efficiency measures improve energy efficiency by adjusting ship operations and management. For example, speed optimization and route optimization are typical operational energy efficiency measures that aim to reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions by improving the way ships operate. Technical energy efficiency measures involve modifications or upgrades to ship hardware or technology to improve energy efficiency. Technical energy efficiency measures include technical improvement data such as the installation of waste heat recovery systems, optimized design of thrusters, and application of low-resistance coatings in the database. These measures reduce carbon emissions by improving the energy efficiency of ships. Renewable energy utilization measures include the use of renewable energy such as wind power and solar energy. Typical measures include the installation of sail-assisted propulsion systems and solar panels. Alternative fuel measures involve the use of fuels such as LNG (liquefied natural gas), biofuels, and hydrogen fuels to replace traditional fuels.

[0022] Step S200: Establish a carbon pricing mechanism, and construct a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model based on the carbon pricing mechanism. The calculation formula of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is as follows:

[0023] Among them, MAC cp is the marginal emission reduction cost, AI is the annual investment cost, OP is the annual operation and maintenance cost, FS is the annual fuel cost savings, CS is the cost savings brought by greenhouse gas emission reduction, and CR is the annual greenhouse gas emission reduction.

[0024] In the embodiment of the present application, a carbon pricing mechanism is first established by technical experts. Through the carbon pricing mechanism, a higher emission cost is set for ships using traditional fuel, thereby improving the price competitiveness of low-carbon green fuels. Next, a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is constructed based on the carbon pricing mechanism. Under the carbon pricing mechanism, the benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures applied by ships should not only calculate the fuel cost savings, but also consider the carbon emission price cost saved due to greenhouse gas emission reduction. Therefore, the marginal emission reduction cost calculation formula under the carbon pricing mechanism is Among them, MAC cp is the marginal emission reduction cost, AI is the annualized investment cost, that is, the initial investment required to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction measures is allocated to each year. OP is the annual operation and maintenance cost, which is the annual operation and maintenance cost incurred to keep the greenhouse gas emission reduction measures in normal operation. FS is the annual fuel cost savings, reflecting the annual economic savings brought about by reducing fuel consumption through the implementation of emission reduction measures. CS is the cost savings brought about by greenhouse gas emission reduction, which represents the economic benefits obtained in the carbon market by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. CR is the annual greenhouse gas emission reduction, which is the greenhouse gas emissions reduced each year after the implementation of emission reduction measures.

[0025] Through the above formula, combined with the specific values ​​of each variable (annualized investment, operating costs, fuel cost savings, carbon emissions savings and emission reductions), the marginal emission reduction cost of a certain measure can be calculated.

[0026] Furthermore, the method provided in the application embodiment also includes:

[0027] Obtain the total investment cost of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures and calculate the annualized investment cost based on the total investment cost as follows:

[0028] Where IC is the total investment cost, d is the discount rate, and L is the number of years of onboard application of the GHG emission reduction measures.

[0029] In the embodiment of the present application, the total investment cost of the greenhouse gas emission reduction measures is first obtained. The total investment cost is the total capital investment required to implement the measures and is pre-stored and set. Next, according to the total investment cost, the total investment cost is calculated according to the formula Calculate the annualized investment cost. IC is the total investment cost, d is the discount rate, and the weighted average capital cost of the ship industry is used as the discount rate, which is 6%. L is the application period of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures on board, which is 25 years.

[0030] After calculating the annualized investment cost through the formula, this value can be used to measure the fixed funding required each year for the emission reduction measure.

[0031] Furthermore, the method provided in the application embodiment also includes:

[0032] The annual operation and maintenance costs are calculated using fuel costs as follows:

[0033] Among them, FP ALT Characterizing the price of alternative fuels, FC LSFO is the annual low sulfur fuel consumption, LHV LSFO is the calorific value of low sulfur fuel oil, LHV ALT For alternative fuel calorific value;

[0034] The annual fuel cost savings are calculated using the following formula:

[0035] FS=FC LSFO ×AP×FP LSFO ; Among them, AP is the emission reduction ratio of emission reduction measures, FP LSFO The price of low sulfur fuel.

[0036] In the embodiment of the present application, the annual operation and maintenance cost is calculated by the fuel cost. Calculate, where FP ALT Characterizing the price of alternative fuels, FCLSFO is the annual low sulfur fuel consumption, LHV LSFO is the calorific value of low sulfur fuel oil, LHV ALT is the calorific value of alternative fuels. These data are preset by technical experts and the annual operation and maintenance costs are calculated.

[0037] Annual fuel cost savings through FS = FC LSFO ×AP×FP LSFO Calculation is performed, where AP is the emission reduction ratio of the emission reduction measures. For energy efficiency measures, the emission reduction ratio is calculated based on ship-end emissions. For alternative fuels, the emission reduction ratio is calculated based on full life cycle emissions. FP LSFO The price of low-sulfur fuel is obtained through quotations provided by ship fuel suppliers.

[0038] When calculating AP, the annual fuel consumption and corresponding carbon dioxide emissions when energy efficiency measures are not implemented, that is, the baseline emissions, are obtained from the historical operating data of the ship. At the same time, the annual fuel consumption and corresponding emissions after the implementation of energy efficiency measures are obtained from the historical data. Next, AP is obtained by subtracting the emissions after the implementation of energy efficiency measures from the baseline emissions and removing the baseline emissions. When calculating the emission reduction ratio of alternative fuels, the annual fuel consumption and corresponding emissions when the ship uses traditional fuels (such as low-sulfur fuel) are obtained from historical data. At the same time, the annual alternative fuel consumption and corresponding emissions are extracted from the operating records of the ship using alternative fuels. Finally, AP is obtained by subtracting the emissions of alternative fuels from the emissions of traditional fuels and then removing the emissions of traditional fuels.

[0039] Furthermore, the method provided in the application embodiment also includes:

[0040] The cost savings from greenhouse gas emission reductions are calculated using the following formula:

[0041] CS=C f ×FC LSFO ×AP×CP; where C f is the fuel carbon emission coefficient, CP is the carbon price;

[0042] The annual greenhouse gas emission reduction is calculated using the following formula:

[0043] CR=C f ×FC×AP; where FC is the annual fuel consumption.

[0044] In the embodiment of the present application, the cost savings brought about by greenhouse gas emission reduction is expressed by the formula CS = C f ×FC LSFO ×AP×CP, where C fis the fuel carbon emission coefficient. For low-sulfur fuel, the carbon emission coefficient is 3.188. CP is the carbon price, which is obtained by consulting the carbon market price. FC LSFO The annual low-sulfur fuel consumption is directly extracted from the ship's fuel consumption records. AP refers to the proportion of greenhouse gas emissions reduced to total emissions after the implementation of emission reduction measures, obtained through the calculation process described above.

[0045] The annual greenhouse gas emission reduction is calculated by the formula CR = C f ×FC×AP, where FC is the annual fuel consumption, obtained from the ship operation database. Similar to the above, the emission reduction ratio AP refers to the ratio of emissions reduced after the implementation of emission reduction measures.

[0046] Furthermore, in the method provided in the embodiment of the application, the construction of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model based on the carbon pricing mechanism also includes:

[0047] The target ship type data is obtained, and the target ship type data is used as matching data to perform ship type database matching to obtain matching results. The ship types set in the ship type database include bulk carriers, container ships, finished oil tankers, and crude oil tankers; and a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is established according to the matching results.

[0048] In an embodiment of the present application, first, target ship type data is extracted from the ship's operating database, which includes but is not limited to information such as the ship's tonnage, main engine power, navigation area, fuel consumption and operating years.

[0049] Next, the target ship type is matched with the preset standard ship type using a similarity matching algorithm. The database contains standard ship types such as bulk carriers, container ships, product oil tankers, crude oil tankers, etc., as well as parameters such as ship tonnage, main engine power, fuel consumption, etc. These parameters will be used for similarity comparison with the data of standard ship types in the database. Through a similarity matching algorithm, such as a matching method based on Euclidean distance or cosine similarity, the similarity between the target ship type and each standard ship type is calculated, the most similar standard ship type is selected as the matching result, and the standard ship type most similar to the target ship type is returned, along with its typical fuel consumption and emission characteristics.

[0050] After matching the appropriate standard ship type, a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is constructed based on the fuel consumption, emission reduction characteristics and economic data of the standard ship type.

[0051] Step S300: using the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures and to rank the cost-benefit measures.

[0052] In the embodiment of the present application, basic data of all feasible greenhouse gas emission reduction measures are first collected. These measures include energy efficiency optimization measures, technical transformation measures and alternative fuel use measures. For each emission reduction measure, the basic data collected include investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, fuel savings and emission reduction ratio. These data come from the historical database of ship operations.

[0053] Next, based on the collected basic data, the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is used to calculate the marginal emission reduction cost of each emission reduction measure. Finally, all emission reduction measures are ranked according to cost-effectiveness based on the calculation results of marginal emission reduction costs.

[0054] Step S400: extract key parameters of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model, and perform impact analysis of parameter changes and cost-effectiveness based on the key parameter extraction results to establish sensitivity analysis results.

[0055] In the embodiment of the present application, the key parameters in the marginal abatement cost analysis model are first extracted to obtain the annualized investment cost, annual operation and maintenance cost, annual fuel cost savings, cost savings brought by greenhouse gas emission reduction, and annual greenhouse gas emission reduction. Next, market information is collected based on the extracted key parameters, including real-time market information and historical market information. This information will be used to set the fluctuation range of each key parameter. Once the fluctuation range is set, the next step is to calculate the confidence interval of the marginal abatement cost by using statistical methods such as Monte Carlo simulation.

[0056] Next, we will analyze the impact of parameter changes and cost-effectiveness. By simulating fluctuations in different key parameters, we analyze how these changes affect the overall marginal emission reduction costs and generate sensitivity analysis.

[0057] Furthermore, in the method provided in the embodiment of the application, the analysis of the impact of parameter changes and cost-effectiveness based on the key parameter extraction results also includes:

[0058] Collect market information, including real-time market information and historical market information; establish a fluctuation range of key parameter extraction results based on the market information; calculate the confidence interval of marginal emission reduction cost using the fluctuation range, and complete the impact analysis of parameter changes and cost-effectiveness based on the confidence interval.

[0059] In the embodiment of the present application, firstly, real-time market information and historical market information are obtained through market data collection and analysis methods. Specifically, API data capture technology is used to extract current fuel prices, carbon market prices, equipment investment and maintenance costs and other information from the API interfaces of platforms such as fuel markets and carbon trading markets. By accessing the real-time data of these market platforms, the latest market dynamics can be obtained. At the same time, historical data such as fuel prices, carbon market prices, equipment investment and maintenance costs of the past few years are retrieved from the historical database through database query.

[0060] Next, based on the collected real-time and historical market data, statistical analysis and time series forecasting methods are used to determine the fluctuation range of each key parameter. First, through statistical analysis, the historical average, standard deviation, maximum and minimum values ​​of each key parameter are calculated to estimate the fluctuation range of these parameters in the past. Then, combined with the time series forecasting model, the trend of historical data is predicted to estimate the fluctuation range of these key parameters in the future. For example, through the time series model analysis, fuel prices may fluctuate by 5%-10% in the next few years, while carbon market prices may fluctuate by 10%-20% due to market changes.

[0061] Then, the confidence interval of the marginal emission reduction cost is calculated. By setting the fluctuation range of key parameters such as fuel price, carbon price, equipment investment and maintenance cost, random sampling is performed using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Each sampling represents a market scenario, and the marginal emission reduction cost under each scenario is calculated. After thousands of sampling runs, the confidence interval of the marginal emission reduction cost is obtained.

[0062] Finally, the impact analysis of parameter changes and cost-effectiveness is completed based on the confidence interval. Specifically, the key parameters that need to be analyzed are first selected, such as fuel prices, carbon market prices, investment costs, etc. Then, different change ranges are set for each parameter, such as ±10%, and the parameter values ​​are gradually adjusted to calculate their impact on the marginal emission reduction cost. After each parameter adjustment, the calculated marginal emission reduction cost needs to be recorded. By comparing the marginal costs under different parameter change conditions, the impact of each parameter on the total cost is evaluated. By calculating the impact of each parameter change on the marginal emission reduction cost, a sensitivity index is generated for each parameter, usually expressed as a percentage of the change ratio. For example, if a 10% increase in fuel prices leads to a 15% increase in marginal emission reduction costs, then the sensitivity index of the parameter is 1.5, indicating that for every 1% increase in fuel prices, the marginal emission reduction cost increases by 1.5%. To determine the sensitivity index, the sensitivity index is calculated by dividing the marginal emission reduction cost change ratio by the parameter change ratio.

[0063] Once the sensitivity indexes of all key parameters are calculated, these indexes are ranked. The parameters with higher sensitivity indexes have greater impact on marginal emission reduction costs. Based on the determined sensitivity indexes, the sensitivity analysis results are generated.

[0064] Step S500: Generate ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation results based on sensitivity analysis results and cost-effectiveness ranking.

[0065] In an embodiment of the present application, when generating a greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation result for a ship, the greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation result for a ship is generated directly based on the sensitivity analysis results and the cost-effectiveness ranking. The sensitivity analysis results show the sensitivity of each emission reduction measure to key market parameters. For example, the sensitivity of emission reduction measure A to fuel prices is 1.5, which means that for every 1% increase or decrease in fuel prices, the marginal emission reduction cost changes by 1.5%. Similarly, the sensitivity of emission reduction measures B and C is also 1.5. Based on these data, the performance of each measure under different market fluctuations can be evaluated. In addition, the cost-effectiveness ranking measures the economic feasibility of each emission reduction measure by the marginal emission reduction cost. The final generated ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation result directly shows the marginal emission reduction cost of each emission reduction measure and its sensitivity data to market fluctuations, which provides an intuitive numerical basis for decision makers.

[0066] Furthermore, the method provided in the application embodiment also includes:

[0067] The sensitivity analysis results and cost-benefit ranking are used to establish the applicable risk level of ships for greenhouse gas emission reduction measures; and the matching reconstruction of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures is carried out according to the applicable risk level of ships and the ship demand preference.

[0068] In the embodiments of the present application, sensitivity analysis measures the responsiveness of emission reduction measures to market fluctuations, such as fuel prices, carbon prices, etc., through sensitivity indicators. The higher the sensitivity index, the more sensitive the emission reduction measures are to market fluctuations. For example, the fuel price sensitivity index of emission reduction measure A is 1.2, which means that for every 1% change in fuel price, the marginal emission reduction cost will change by 1.2%. The sensitivity index of emission reduction measure B is 0.8, which means that for every 1% change in fuel price, the marginal emission reduction cost only changes by 0.8%, indicating that it is relatively stable to market fluctuations.

[0069] The cost-effectiveness ranking is based on the marginal abatement cost (MAC) to evaluate the economic benefits of each emission reduction measure. For example, the marginal abatement cost of emission reduction measure B is 105, indicating that it has a high economic benefit. The marginal abatement cost of emission reduction measure A is 120, which is a medium benefit. The marginal abatement cost of emission reduction measure C is 135, and the cost-effectiveness is relatively low.

[0070] According to the sensitivity index and cost-effectiveness ranking, an applicable risk level is assigned to each emission reduction measure to reflect the stability of economic benefits under market fluctuations. Specifically, when it is a low risk level, the sensitivity index is less than 1, indicating that the market fluctuation has little impact on the measure and the marginal emission reduction cost has a low change range. For example, the sensitivity of emission reduction measure B is 0.8. When the fuel price rises by 10%, the marginal emission reduction cost increases from 105 to 113, and the change range is less than 10, indicating that it can maintain stable economic benefits under various market conditions. When it is a medium risk level, the sensitivity index is between 1 and 1.5, indicating that the market fluctuation has a medium impact on the measure. For example, the sensitivity of emission reduction measure A is 1.2. When the fuel price rises by 10%, the marginal emission reduction cost increases from 120 to 134.4, fluctuating between 10 and 20, but still within the controllable range, so it belongs to the medium risk level. When it is a high risk level, the sensitivity index is greater than 1.5, indicating that the market fluctuation has a greater impact on the measure. For example, the sensitivity of emission reduction measure C is 1.8. When the fuel price increases by 10%, the marginal emission reduction cost increases from 135 to 159, and the change is more than 20. Therefore, it is considered a high-risk measure.

[0071] Once the applicable risk level is assigned to each emission reduction measure, the next step is to match and reconstruct it according to the ship's demand preferences. Ship demand preferences include tolerance for market fluctuations, investment cost control, and attention to long-term economic benefits. If the ship's operating requirements are to ensure the stability of cost-effectiveness, choose emission reduction measures with a low risk level. For example, emission reduction measure B is very suitable for such ships due to its lower sensitivity and better cost-effectiveness. If the ship can accept a certain market volatility and hopes to balance investment costs and long-term operating costs, choose emission reduction measures with a medium risk level. Emission reduction measure A can provide good economic benefits when market fluctuations are small and is suitable for such ships. For those ships that pursue short-term high returns, even in the face of large market fluctuations, such ships choose emission reduction measures with a high risk level. For example, emission reduction measure C may provide higher short-term benefits under specific market conditions and is suitable for short-term decisions.

[0072] Through the above process, the matching reconstruction of emission reduction measures is completed according to the ship's demand preferences, combined with the ship's applicable risk level and the ship's operating strategy.

[0073] In the embodiments of the present application, in summary, the embodiments of the present application have at least the following technical effects:

[0074] This application collects and establishes greenhouse gas emission reduction measures for ships, which include operational energy efficiency measures, technical energy efficiency measures, renewable energy utilization measures and alternative fuels; establishes a carbon pricing mechanism, and constructs a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model based on the carbon pricing mechanism. The calculation formula of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is as follows: Among them, MAC cp is the marginal emission reduction cost, AI is the annualized investment cost, OP is the annual operation and maintenance cost, FS is the annual fuel cost savings, CS is the cost savings brought by greenhouse gas emission reduction, and CR is the annual greenhouse gas emission reduction; the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is used to perform cost-benefit analysis of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures, and cost-benefit ranking is performed; key parameters of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model are extracted, and the impact analysis of parameter changes and cost-benefit is performed based on the key parameter extraction results, and sensitivity analysis results are established; ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation results are generated according to the sensitivity analysis results and cost-benefit ranking. The present invention solves the technical problem that the existing technical evaluation method is single and cannot comprehensively consider the multi-dimensional economic benefits and market fluctuations. By collecting greenhouse gas emission reduction measures of ships, establishing a carbon pricing mechanism and constructing a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model, calculating the annualized investment, operation and maintenance, fuel savings and other costs, using the model to perform cost-benefit analysis and ranking, combining key parameter extraction and sensitivity analysis, generating ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation results, and achieving the technical effect of improving the accuracy of economic evaluation of emission reduction measures.

[0075] Embodiment 2 is based on the same inventive concept as the ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation method based on marginal emission reduction cost in the above embodiment. Figure 2 As shown, the present application provides a ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation system based on marginal emission reduction cost, and the system and method embodiments in the present application embodiment are based on the same inventive concept. The system includes:

[0076] A gas emission reduction measures collection module 11, the gas emission reduction measures collection module 11 collects and establishes greenhouse gas emission reduction measures for ships, the greenhouse gas emission reduction measures include operational energy efficiency measures, technical energy efficiency measures, renewable energy utilization measures and alternative fuels; a carbon pricing mechanism establishment module 12, the carbon pricing mechanism establishment module 12 establishes a carbon pricing mechanism, and constructs a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model based on the carbon pricing mechanism. The calculation formula of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is as follows: Among them, MAC cpis the marginal emission reduction cost, AI is the annualized investment cost, OP is the annual operation and maintenance cost, FS is the annual fuel cost savings, CS is the cost savings brought by greenhouse gas emission reduction, and CR is the annual greenhouse gas emission reduction; a cost-benefit analysis module 13, the cost-benefit analysis module 13 uses the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model to perform cost-benefit analysis of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures and conducts cost-benefit ranking; an impact analysis module 14, the impact analysis module 14 extracts key parameters of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model, and based on the key parameter extraction results, performs an impact analysis on parameter changes and cost-benefit, and establishes a sensitivity analysis result; a gas emission reduction evaluation module 15, the gas emission reduction evaluation module 15 generates a ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation result according to the sensitivity analysis results and cost-benefit ranking.

[0077] Furthermore, the system is also used to implement the following functions:

[0078] Obtain the total investment cost of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures and calculate the annualized investment cost based on the total investment cost as follows: Where IC is the total investment cost, d is the discount rate, and L is the number of years of onboard application of the GHG emission reduction measures.

[0079] Furthermore, the system is also used to implement the following functions:

[0080] The annual operation and maintenance costs are calculated using fuel costs as follows:

[0081] Among them, FP ALT Characterizing the price of alternative fuels, FC LSFO is the annual low sulfur fuel consumption, LHV LSFO is the calorific value of low sulfur fuel oil, LHV ALT is the calorific value of the alternative fuel; the annual fuel cost savings are calculated by the following formula: FS = FC LSFO ×AP×FP LSFO ; Among them, AP is the emission reduction ratio of emission reduction measures, FP LSFO The price of low sulfur fuel.

[0082] Furthermore, the system is also used to implement the following functions:

[0083] The cost savings from greenhouse gas emission reductions are calculated using the following formula: CS = C f ×FC LSFO ×AP×CP; where C f is the fuel carbon emission coefficient, CP is the carbon price; the annual greenhouse gas emission reduction is calculated by the following formula: CR = C f ×FC×AP; where FC is the annual fuel consumption.

[0084] Furthermore, the system is also used to implement the following functions:

[0085] The target ship type data is obtained, and the target ship type data is used as matching data to perform ship type database matching to obtain matching results. The ship types set in the ship type database include bulk carriers, container ships, finished oil tankers, and crude oil tankers; and a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is established according to the matching results.

[0086] Furthermore, the system is also used to implement the following functions:

[0087] Collect market information, including real-time market information and historical market information; establish a fluctuation range of key parameter extraction results based on the market information; calculate the confidence interval of marginal emission reduction cost using the fluctuation range, and complete the impact analysis of parameter changes and cost-effectiveness based on the confidence interval.

[0088] Furthermore, the system is also used to implement the following functions:

[0089] The sensitivity analysis results and cost-benefit ranking are used to establish the applicable risk level of ships for greenhouse gas emission reduction measures; and the matching reconstruction of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures is carried out according to the applicable risk level of ships and the ship demand preference.

[0090] It should be noted that the above-mentioned sequence of the embodiments of the present application is only for description and does not represent the advantages and disadvantages of the embodiments. And the above-mentioned specific embodiments of this specification are described. The processes depicted in the accompanying drawings do not necessarily require the specific order and continuous order shown to achieve the desired results. In some embodiments, multitasking and parallel processing are also possible or may be advantageous.

[0091] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present application and is not intended to limit the present application. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present application shall be included in the protection scope of the present application.

[0092] This specification and drawings are merely exemplary illustrations of the present application and are deemed to cover any and all modifications, variations, combinations or equivalents within the scope of the present application. Obviously, a person skilled in the art may make various modifications and variations to the present application without departing from the scope of the present application. Thus, if these modifications and variations of the present application fall within the scope of the present application and its equivalents, the present application intends to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction from ships based on marginal emission reduction costs, characterized in that: The method comprises: Collect and establish greenhouse gas emission reduction measures for ships, including operational energy efficiency measures, technical energy efficiency measures, renewable energy utilization measures and alternative fuels; Establish a carbon pricing mechanism and construct a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model based on the carbon pricing mechanism. The calculation formula of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is as follows: Among them, MAC cp is the marginal emission reduction cost, AI is the annualized investment cost, OP is the annual operation and maintenance cost, FS is the annual fuel cost savings, CS is the cost savings brought by greenhouse gas emission reduction, and CR is the annual greenhouse gas emission reduction; Use the marginal abatement cost analysis model to conduct cost-benefit analysis of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures and rank them according to cost-benefit; Extract key parameters of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model, and analyze the impact of parameter changes and cost-effectiveness based on the key parameter extraction results, and establish sensitivity analysis results; The ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation results are generated based on the sensitivity analysis results and cost-benefit ranking.

2. The method for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction of ships based on marginal emission reduction cost according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method further comprises: Obtain the total investment cost of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures and calculate the annualized investment cost based on the total investment cost as follows: Where IC is the total investment cost, d is the discount rate, and L is the number of years of onboard application of the GHG emission reduction measures.

3. The method for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction of ships based on marginal emission reduction cost according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method further comprises: The annual operation and maintenance costs are calculated using fuel costs as follows: Among them, FP ALT Characterizing the price of alternative fuels, FC LSFO is the annual low sulfur fuel consumption, LHV LSFO is the calorific value of low sulfur fuel oil, LHV ALT For alternative fuel calorific value; The annual fuel cost savings are calculated using the following formula: FS=FC LSFO ×AP×FP LSFO ; Among them, AP is the emission reduction ratio of emission reduction measures, FP LSFO The price of low sulfur fuel.

4. The method for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction of ships based on marginal emission reduction cost according to claim 3, characterized in that: The method further comprises: The cost savings from greenhouse gas emission reductions are calculated using the following formula: CS=C f ×FC LSFO ×AP×CP; Among them, C f is the fuel carbon emission coefficient, CP is the carbon price; The annual greenhouse gas emission reduction is calculated using the following formula: CR=C f ×FC×AP; Where FC is the annual fuel consumption.

5. The method for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction of ships based on marginal emission reduction cost according to claim 1, characterized in that: The construction of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model based on the carbon pricing mechanism also includes: Obtain target ship type data, use the target ship type data as matching data, perform ship type database matching, and obtain matching results, wherein the ship types set in the ship type database include bulk carriers, container ships, product oil tankers, and crude oil tankers; A marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is established based on the matching results.

6. The method for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction of ships based on marginal emission reduction cost according to claim 1, characterized in that: The analysis of the impact of parameter changes and cost-effectiveness based on the key parameter extraction results also includes: Collecting market information, including real-time market information and historical market information; Establishing a fluctuation range of key parameter extraction results based on the market information; The confidence interval of the marginal emission reduction cost is calculated using the fluctuation range, and the impact analysis of parameter changes and cost-effectiveness is completed based on the confidence interval.

7. The method for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction of ships based on marginal emission reduction cost according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method further comprises: Use sensitivity analysis results and cost-benefit ranking to establish ship-applicable risk levels for GHG emission reduction measures; Greenhouse gas emission reduction measures are matched and reconstructed according to the applicable risk level of the ship and the ship demand preference.

8. A greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation system for ships based on marginal emission reduction costs, characterized in that: The system comprises: A gas emission reduction measures collection module, wherein the gas emission reduction measures collection module collects and establishes greenhouse gas emission reduction measures for the ship, wherein the greenhouse gas emission reduction measures include operational energy efficiency measures, technical energy efficiency measures, renewable energy utilization measures and alternative fuels; The carbon pricing mechanism establishment module establishes a carbon pricing mechanism and constructs a marginal emission reduction cost analysis model based on the carbon pricing mechanism. The calculation formula of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model is as follows: Among them, MAC cp is the marginal emission reduction cost, AI is the annualized investment cost, OP is the annual operation and maintenance cost, FS is the annual fuel cost savings, CS is the cost savings brought by greenhouse gas emission reduction, and CR is the annual greenhouse gas emission reduction; A cost-benefit analysis module, wherein the cost-benefit analysis module uses a marginal reduction cost analysis model to perform a cost-benefit analysis of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures and performs a cost-benefit ranking; An impact analysis module, which extracts key parameters of the marginal emission reduction cost analysis model, and performs an impact analysis of parameter changes and cost-effectiveness based on the key parameter extraction results, and establishes sensitivity analysis results; A gas emission reduction evaluation module generates a ship greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluation result based on sensitivity analysis results and cost-effectiveness ranking.

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