New energy utilization rate evaluation method based on electric power spot market

Abstract

The invention discloses a new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on an electric power spot market, and belongs to the technical field of new energy station power generation. Related information published by a transaction center is acquired, and then the loss rate is calculated from two perspectives of published power and published price according to actually and specifically acquired data information; therefore, the overall utilization rate of the new energy is further calculated, the disadvantage that the traditional evaluation of the power limiting rate or utilization rate is disjointed with the power transaction is avoided, the objectivity and practicability of the evaluation are improved, and the misjudgment risk is reduced by integrating the information of the two perspectives. And finally, calculating the year-on-year ratio and the ring-on-ring ratio of each loss rate to the overall utilization rate of the new energy, and reasonably evaluating the future income of the new energy station within a certain time duration.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of new energy station power generation, and specifically is a new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market. Background Art

[0002] At present, the power market in various provinces is developing rapidly, and it has become an inevitable trend for new energy stations to conduct spot power trading. In the practice of various provinces, due to the uncertainty of new energy power generation and the influence of various factors such as market rules, existing new energy stations and planned new energy stations urgently need to make a reasonable assessment of future benefits. Since new energy is in a state of oversupply in most provinces, it often faces power restrictions, and the utilization rate is far lower than the ideal situation calculated based on wind resources. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a reasonable calculation method to evaluate the utilization rate of new energy in different regions.

[0003] The patent "A System and Method for Calculating Wind Power Energy Utilization Rate" with publication number "CN107045548A" discloses a system and method for calculating wind power energy utilization rate, including a real-time database and a historical database, and also includes a wind turbine status online monitoring module, a wind turbine sample group data processing module, a wind turbine total power generation recording service module, a wind turbine index periodic calculation service module and a user interaction module respectively connected to the real-time database and the historical database. This solution can solve the technical problems faced by the current industry when calculating this indicator, such as the variety of wind turbine models, inconsistent wind turbine status division, and low index calculation accuracy. At the same time, the sample group framework introduced and the determination and processing of effective sample markings reduce the calculation error of a single sample, avoid the problem of theoretical power generation being unable to be calculated due to the abnormality of a single sample, and realize the flexibility of calculating indicators in various dimensions. It is a general data processing technology for calculating such indicators. However, this solution belongs to a typical single-station analysis method. In most provinces, it is impossible for power trading to publish information on all new energy stations in the province, so it lacks operability.

[0004] The patent "A method for evaluating the absorption capacity of new energy based on extreme scenario analysis" with publication number "CN112398165A" discloses a method for evaluating the absorption capacity of new energy based on extreme scenario analysis. This invention is mainly used to solve the problem of preparing new energy power generation plans in the field of dispatching and operation. It aims to comprehensively consider the operational requirements such as safe and stable operation of the power grid and reliable power supply, and to prepare power generation plans for various types of power sources with the maximum absorption capacity of new energy as the optimization goal. Compared with existing achievements, the core innovation of the present invention is that it fully considers the impact of the volatility of new energy output under extreme scenarios, so as to eliminate the safety hazards caused by insufficient system frequency regulation resources and ramp resources, and plays a supporting role in improving the safe and stable operation of the power grid under large-scale new energy access. However, this scheme only considers the maximum utilization rate to ensure the balance of supply and demand of the power grid under extreme fluctuations of new energy, and does not combine the price signals of the electricity market, so it is difficult to guide price-based electricity transactions.

[0005] The patent "Evaluation Method of New Energy Absorption Capacity Based on Unified Framework of Technology and Market Flexibility" with publication number "CN112258064A" discloses a method for evaluating new energy absorption capacity based on unified framework of technology and market flexibility. First, a technical flexibility resource framework for the power supply side, grid side, load side and energy storage side of the regional power system based on time scale is established; secondly, a market flexibility mechanism framework is established considering the spot market, wind and thermal power generation rights trading, inter-provincial trading and peak-shaving auxiliary service market; then, the technical flexibility resources and market flexibility mechanism are comprehensively considered to establish a unified framework of power system flexibility to promote new energy absorption; finally, the framework is used to quantitatively evaluate the new energy absorption capacity through the new energy abandonment rate. The evaluation results will guide the regional power system to select flexibility resources, and then continuously update and iterate the optimization operation of the regional power system. However, the foothold of this scheme is that the power grid management department calculates the utilization of new energy in the region through the abandonment rate, and combines it with various power trading windows. However, the abandonment rate announced by most provinces currently lacks the connection with the power trading window, and needs to be calculated by the main body participating in the transaction, which lacks operability. Summary of the invention

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to address the problem of unreasonable future revenue assessment of new energy stations due to the uncertainty of new energy power generation and the influence of various factors such as market rules. A new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market is proposed. The present invention obtains relevant information published by the trading center, and then proposes to calculate the loss rate from the two perspectives of published power and published price based on the actual specific data obtained, so as to further calculate the overall utilization rate of new energy, avoid the drawbacks of traditional evaluation of power restriction rate or utilization rate being out of touch with power trading, improve the objectivity and practicality of the evaluation, integrate the information from the two perspectives, and reduce the risk of misjudgment. Finally, the year-on-year and month-on-month comparisons of various loss rates and the overall utilization rate of new energy are calculated, and the future revenue evaluation of new energy stations can be reasonably evaluated within a certain length of time.

[0007] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market, comprising the following steps:

[0008] S1. Obtain the actual power and day-ahead power of wind power or photovoltaic power announced by the trading center, and obtain the extremely low price during the photovoltaic power output period and the extremely low price during the wind power output period;

[0009] S2. If the day-ahead power is obtained, the loss rate is calculated based on the day-ahead power; if the day-ahead power is not announced, the loss rate is calculated based on the theoretical power, thereby calculating the first utilization rate;

[0010] S3. If the photovoltaic power output period has an extremely low price, the photovoltaic power loss rate is calculated; if the wind power output period has an extremely low price, the wind power loss rate is calculated, thereby calculating the second utilization rate;

[0011] S4. Calculate the overall utilization rate of new energy by using the first utilization rate or the second utilization rate according to actual conditions;

[0012] S5. Calculate the year-on-year and month-on-month changes of the above-mentioned loss rates and the overall utilization rate of new energy, so as to analyze the trend of change.

[0013] Preferably, in S2, the day-ahead power calculation loss rate is calculated by the following formula:

[0014] l 日前 =(P 日前 -P 实际 ) / P 日前 ; Among them, P 日前 represents the day-ahead power, P 实际 Indicates the actual power, l 日前 represents the loss rate calculated based on the day-ahead power;

[0015] The loss rate is calculated based on the theoretical power using the following formula:

[0016] l理论 =(P 理论 -P 实际 ) / P 理论 ; Among them, P 理论 Indicates theoretical power. Theoretical power is calculated using the table lookup method. 理论 Indicates the loss rate calculated based on theoretical power.

[0017] Preferably, the theoretical power is calculated by the following formula:

[0018] P 理论 =P 历史同期 *Cap 当期 / Cap 历史同期 ; Among them, P 理论 is the theoretical power, Cap 当期 is the installed capacity of the current period, Cap 历史同期 is the installed capacity in the same period of history, P 历史同期 is the power corresponding to the same period in history.

[0019] Preferably, the first utilization rate is calculated by the following formula:

[0020] r1=100%-l, wherein l is the loss rate calculated based on the day-ahead power or the loss rate calculated based on the theoretical power.

[0021] Preferably, in S3, the photovoltaic loss rate is calculated by the following formula:

[0022] l 光伏 =T 极低价 / T; where T 极低价 represents the length of time when the photovoltaic power generation price is extremely low, T represents the total length of the photovoltaic power generation period, l 光伏 Represents the photovoltaic loss rate; the extremely low price refers to the lower limit of the scenario of the electricity clearing price in the region;

[0023] The wind power loss rate is calculated by the following formula:

[0024] l 风电 =T 极低价 / T; where T 极低价 represents the length of time when wind power has extremely low prices, T represents the total length of the wind power output period, l 风电 Represents the wind power loss rate.

[0025] Preferably, the second utilization rate is calculated by the following formula:

[0026] r2=100%-1; wherein r2 represents the wind power utilization rate or the photovoltaic utilization rate. The wind power utilization rate is 100% minus the wind power loss rate, and the photovoltaic utilization rate is 100% minus the photovoltaic loss rate.

[0027] It should be noted that in actual situations, there are three situations in which the loss rate is calculated based on the price, namely: if only the extremely low price of photovoltaic power and the relevant data required for calculation are obtained, the second utilization rate is calculated by subtracting the photovoltaic loss rate from 100%; if only the extremely low price of wind power and the relevant data required for calculation are obtained, the second utilization rate is calculated by subtracting the wind power loss rate from 100%; if the corresponding extremely low prices and the relevant data required for calculation are obtained from both photovoltaic and wind power, when calculating the second utilization rate, it is necessary to first calculate the weighted loss rate of photovoltaic loss rate and wind power loss rate, and then subtract the weighted loss rate from 100% to obtain the second utilization rate. The weight coefficients of the two are 0.5 by default. However, the weight coefficients can be set to different values ​​based on other factors according to the actual processing situation.

[0028] Preferably, in S4:

[0029] If the actual situation can calculate the utilization rate by power or by price, the difference between the first utilization rate and the second utilization rate is calculated and it is determined whether it is less than 15%; if the difference between the first utilization rate and the second utilization rate is less than or equal to 15%, the overall utilization rate of new energy is calculated by the first utilization rate; if the difference between the first utilization rate and the second utilization rate is greater than 15%, the weighted average utilization rates of wind power and photovoltaic power are calculated first, and then the overall utilization rate of new energy is calculated; if the actual situation can only calculate the utilization rate by power or price, the utilization rate is calculated by the corresponding method. The calculation method of 15% is the absolute value of the value of the first utilization rate divided by the value of the second utilization rate minus 1.

[0030] Preferably, the calculation of the overall utilization rate of new energy by the first utilization rate is calculated by the following formula: 新能源 =(r 风电 ×Cap 风电 +r 光伏 ×Cap 光伏 ) / (Cap 风电 +Cap 光伏 ), where r 风电 Indicates the wind power utilization rate in the power calculation process, r 光伏 Indicates the photovoltaic utilization rate in the power calculation process, Cap 风电 Indicates the wind power installed capacity in the power calculation process, Cap 光伏 Indicates the photovoltaic installed capacity used in the power calculation process.

[0031] Preferably, the weighted average utilization rates of wind power and photovoltaic power are calculated first, and then the overall utilization rate of new energy is calculated by the following formula:

[0032] r=(r 功率 ×k功率 +r 价格 ×k 价格 ) / (k 功率 +k 价格 ), where r 功率 is the wind power or photovoltaic utilization rate calculated based on power, r 价格 is the utilization rate of wind power or photovoltaic power calculated based on the price; k 价格 Represents the weight coefficient of price, k 功率 Indicates the power weight coefficient, the default value is 0.5.

[0033] Preferably, in S5, the year-on-year and month-on-month calculations are performed by the following formula:

[0034] delta 同比 =r 本月 -r 去年同月

[0035] delta 环比 =r 本月 -r 上月 Among them, the year-on-year and month-on-month data are calculated on a monthly basis. 同比 , using the utilization rate r this month 本月 Utilization rate compared with the same month last year 去年同月 , calculate the difference; delta 环比 , using the utilization rate r this month 本月 Compared with the utilization rate of last month 上月 Calculate the difference; taking the month-on-month comparison as an example, if the difference is greater than or equal to 10%, the utilization rate this month has increased significantly; if the difference is less than or equal to -10%, the utilization rate this month has decreased significantly; if the difference is in the range of -10% to 10%, there is no significant change in the utilization rate this month; the year-on-year judgment method is the same as the month-on-month comparison.

[0036] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0037] 1. This solution calculates the utilization rate of new energy based on power trading from two perspectives: published power and published price. It avoids the drawbacks of traditional evaluation of power restriction rate or utilization rate being out of touch with power trading. On the one hand, it improves the robustness of the calculation. If data from any perspective is missing, it can be calculated from another perspective. On the other hand, it improves the accuracy of the calculation. If data conditions from both perspectives are met, consistency verification can be performed. By combining information from both perspectives, the risk of misjudgment can be reduced, and the objectivity and practicality of the evaluation can be improved.

[0038] 2. This solution calculates the new energy utilization rate from the published power and the published price respectively, making the calculation method have strong spatial adaptability. It can calculate the new energy utilization rate of provinces, cities, nodes, single stations, and specific areas, avoiding the problem of traditional methods that cannot take into account both single station and province-wide calculations.

[0039] 3. This scheme introduces atmospheric reanalysis data for calculation. First, as a substitute for observation data, it avoids the problems of delayed transmission of observation data and few representative sites. Second, since atmospheric reanalysis data has values ​​since the 1990s, it can perform long-term historical numerical calculations and has stronger business reference. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0040] Other features, objects and advantages of the present invention will become more apparent by reading the detailed description of non-limiting embodiments made with reference to the following drawings. The drawings are only for the purpose of illustrating preferred embodiments and are not to be considered as limiting the present invention. Also, the same reference symbols are used throughout the drawings to represent the same parts.

[0041] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the overall system flow of the present invention;

[0042] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the utilization rate calculation process based on the power published by the trading center in the present invention;

[0043] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the calculation process of the present invention based on the price published by the trading center;

[0044] Figure 4 It is a schematic diagram of the calculation flow of the consistency inspection and comprehensive evaluation of the new energy utilization rate of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0045] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0046] Electricity spot market: A market where operators that meet the entry requirements conduct day-ahead, intraday and real-time electricity transactions. The electricity spot market forms a market-clearing price that reflects the value of time and space through competition, and carries out auxiliary service transactions such as frequency regulation and standby.

[0047] Published power: The wind power or photovoltaic power published by the trading center includes day-ahead power and real-time power. Day-ahead power refers to the future forecast power published one or more days in advance, such as the wind power forecast power for October 2 published on October 1. Real-time power refers to the power published one day before the day, such as the wind power real-time power for October 1 published on October 2.

[0048] Atmospheric reanalysis data: Atmospheric reanalysis data uses advanced and fixed data assimilation systems and numerical forecast models to integrate model forecasts and historical observation data, thereby obtaining long-series historical weather data with rich variables, complete spatial coverage, and uniform and stable time. It is equivalent to meteorological observation data and can reflect the actual weather conditions over a period of time.

[0049] Theoretical power: The ideal power of wind power or photovoltaic power generation over a period of time, calculated based on meteorological observation data or atmospheric reanalysis data, without considering power curtailment (limited power generation), failures, and maintenance losses.

[0050] Installed capacity: the sum of the rated power of all new energy sites (wind power or photovoltaic) in a certain area (province, city, node).

[0051] Loss rate: The proportion of real-time power lower than the day-ahead power due to power restriction, failure, maintenance, etc.

[0052] Utilization rate: Utilization rate = 100% - loss rate.

[0053] Example 1: Figure 1 - Figure 4 As shown, a new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market includes:

[0054] S1. Obtain the actual power and day-ahead power of wind power or photovoltaic power announced by the trading center, and obtain the extremely low price during the photovoltaic output period and the extremely low price during the wind power output period.

[0055] First, it is necessary to obtain the actual power and day-ahead power of wind power or photovoltaic power published by the trading center, and also to obtain the extremely low price during the photovoltaic output period and the extremely low price during the wind power output period. Generally speaking, only power market trading members can obtain various price and power data published by the trading center. However, the technical solution provided by this plan is to deal with the problem of unreasonable future revenue assessment of new energy sites caused by the uncertainty of new energy power generation and the influence of various factors such as market rules encountered by technical personnel in professional fields during the evaluation process, so this technical solution does not need to consider this problem.

[0056] At the same time, this technical solution requires professional knowledge of new energy power trading to reasonably set extremely low prices and power or price utilization weight coefficients for different regions and different rules. This solution requires meteorological development capabilities to collect atmospheric reanalysis data from various regions, reasonably compile historical meteorological data and power correspondence tables for the same period, and reasonably calculate photovoltaic output periods and wind power output periods. However, as a technician in a professional field, the above-mentioned issues will not be difficulties encountered in the implementation of this application.

[0057] S2. A method for calculating the loss rate based on the power published by the trading center; that is, if the day-ahead power is obtained, the loss rate is calculated based on the day-ahead power; if the day-ahead power is not published, the loss rate is calculated based on the theoretical power, thereby calculating the first utilization rate based on the loss rate.

[0058] Specifically, Figure 2 As shown, firstly, the utilization calculation method based on the power published by the trading center includes:

[0059] Step 1: Determine whether the trading center has published the actual wind power or photovoltaic power of the province / region / node. If it has not been published, it means that it cannot be calculated and the process ends.

[0060] Step 2: If the actual power is published, continue to determine whether the trading center publishes the wind power or photovoltaic day-ahead power of the province / region / node.

[0061] Step 3: If the day-ahead power is published, the loss rate is calculated based on the day-ahead power, that is:

[0062] l 日前 =(P 日前 -P 实际 ) / P 日前 ;

[0063] Among them, P 日前 represents the day-ahead power, P 实际 Indicates the actual power, l 日前 Indicates the loss rate calculated based on the day-ahead power.

[0064] Step 4: If the day-ahead power is not published, the loss rate is calculated based on the theoretical power, that is:

[0065] l 理论 =(P 理论 -P 实际 ) / P 理论 ;

[0066] Among them, P 理论 Indicates theoretical power. Theoretical power is calculated using the table lookup method. 理论 Indicates the loss rate calculated based on theoretical power.

[0067] It should be noted that the theoretical power is calculated using the table lookup method: wind power is calculated based on the relationship between wind speed and wind power in the same period of history, and the current wind speed is substituted into the current theoretical power, and then multiplied by the coefficient of wind power installed capacity in the same period of history and the current installed capacity. Photovoltaic is calculated based on the relationship between solar radiation and photovoltaic power in the same period of history, and the current solar radiation is substituted into the current theoretical power, and then multiplied by the coefficient of photovoltaic installed capacity in the same period of history and the current installed capacity. Different provinces, cities, nodes and other regional scopes have their own separate corresponding relationship tables. Wind speed or solar radiation comes from atmospheric reanalysis data. The average level of the same month in the previous year is generally taken for the same period of history. For details, please see Table 1, the corresponding relationship table of meteorological data and power in the same period of history.

[0068] Table 1 Correspondence between historical meteorological data and power in the same period

[0069]

[0070] From the above, we can know that the theoretical power calculation formula is:

[0071] P 理论 =P 历史同期 *Cap 当期 / Cap 历史同期 ;

[0072] Among them, P 理论 is the theoretical power, Cap 当期 is the installed capacity of the current period, Cap 历史同期 is the installed capacity in the same period of history, P 历史同期 is the power corresponding to the same period in history.

[0073] For example, the wind speed in a province on September 1, 2024 is 4 m / s. The table shows that the corresponding power is 4000MW when the wind speed is 4 m / s in September 2023. The installed capacity of wind power in September 2023 is 6000MW, and the installed capacity in September 2024 is 6500MW. The theoretical power of the province on September 1 is 4000*6500 / 6000, which is 4333MW.

[0074] Step 5: Calculate the utilization, which is:

[0075] r1=100%-l;

[0076] r1 is the wind power utilization rate r, which is 100% minus the wind power loss rate, or the photovoltaic utilization rate r, which is 100% minus the photovoltaic loss rate.

[0077] This scheme introduces atmospheric reanalysis data for calculation. First, as a substitute for observation data, it avoids the problems of delayed transmission of observation data and few representative sites. Second, since atmospheric reanalysis data has values ​​since the 1990s, it can perform long-term historical numerical calculations and has stronger business reference.

[0078] S3, a method for calculating the loss rate based on the price published by the trading center; that is, if an extremely low price appears during the photovoltaic output period, the photovoltaic loss rate is calculated; if an extremely low price appears during the wind power output period, the wind power loss rate is calculated, thereby calculating the second utilization rate based on the photovoltaic loss rate and the wind power loss rate;

[0079] Specifically, Figure 3 As shown, firstly, the utilization calculation method based on the power published by the trading center includes:

[0080] Step 1: Determine whether there is an extremely low price during the photovoltaic output period. Here, the photovoltaic output period refers to the time from sunrise to sunset in the region. The extremely low price refers to the lower limit of the power clearing price in the region. The extremely low price varies in different regions (provinces, cities, nodes).

[0081] Step 2: If an extremely low price occurs during the PV output period, it is considered that there is a PV output loss during this period, and the PV loss rate can be calculated.

[0082] l 光伏 =T 极低价 / T;

[0083] Where, T 极低价 represents the length of time when the photovoltaic power generation price is extremely low, T represents the total length of the photovoltaic power generation period, l 光伏 Represents the photovoltaic loss rate.

[0084] Step 3: Determine whether the wind power output is extremely low. The wind power output period here refers to the time period when the wind speed in the area is above 3 meters per second according to the atmospheric reanalysis data.

[0085] Step 4: Calculate the wind power loss rate. According to long-term tracking, if there is a loss of photovoltaic power output in a certain area during a certain period of time, there will also be a loss of wind power output.

[0086] l 风电 =T 极低价 / T; where T 极低价 represents the length of time when wind power has extremely low prices, T represents the total length of the wind power output period, l 风电 Represents the wind power loss rate.

[0087] Step 5: Calculate the utilization, which is:

[0088] r2=100%-1; wherein r2 represents the wind power utilization rate or the photovoltaic utilization rate. The wind power utilization rate is 100% minus the wind power loss rate, and the photovoltaic utilization rate is 100% minus the photovoltaic loss rate.

[0089] This solution calculates the utilization rate of new energy based on power trading from two perspectives: published power and published price. This avoids the drawbacks of the traditional assessment of power restriction rate or utilization rate being out of touch with power trading. On the one hand, it improves the robustness of the calculation. If data from any perspective is missing, it can be calculated from another perspective. On the other hand, it improves the accuracy of the calculation. If the data conditions from both perspectives are met, consistency verification can be performed, and the information from the two perspectives can be combined to reduce the risk of misjudgment, and also improve the objectivity and practicality of the evaluation. At the same time, this solution also calculates the utilization rate of new energy from the published power and the published price respectively, so that the calculation method has strong spatial adaptability. It can calculate the utilization rate of new energy in provinces, cities, nodes, single stations, and specific areas, avoiding the problem that the traditional method cannot take into account both the calculation of a single station and the calculation of the entire province.

[0090] It should be noted that this solution requires a large amount of computing power. Since it involves multiple provinces, cities, nodes, and new energy stations across the country, the total amount of data is about 1TB. A single server needs to calculate for about 6 hours, and multiple servers need to calculate in parallel.

[0091] S4. Comprehensive evaluation of the consistency test of new energy utilization rate; that is, according to the actual situation, calculate the overall utilization rate of new energy through the first utilization rate or the second utilization rate and calculate the year-on-year and month-on-month comparisons of the above-mentioned various loss rates and the overall utilization rate of new energy, so as to analyze the transformation trend.

[0092] Step 1: If a province has published more information, that is, it can calculate the utilization rate according to the power-based algorithm and the price-based algorithm, it is necessary to calculate the difference between the utilization rate calculated by the power-based algorithm and the utilization rate calculated by the price-based algorithm and determine whether it is less than 15%.

[0093] Step 2: If the difference between the two is less than or equal to 15%, the overall utilization rate of new energy is calculated by the utilization rate calculated by the power-based algorithm;

[0094] r 新能源 =(r 风电 ×Cap 风电 +r 光伏 ×Cap 光伏 ) / (Cap 风电 +Cap 光伏 ), where r 风电 Indicates the wind power utilization rate in the power calculation process, r 光伏 Indicates the photovoltaic utilization rate in the power calculation process, Cap风电 Indicates the wind power installed capacity in the power calculation process, Cap 光伏 Indicates the photovoltaic installed capacity used in the power calculation process.

[0095] Step 3: If the two algorithms differ greatly, that is, the difference between the two is greater than 15%, first calculate the weighted average utilization rate of wind power and photovoltaic power, and then calculate the overall utilization rate of new energy;

[0096] r=(r 功率 ×k 功率 +r 价格 ×k 价格 ) / (k 功率 +k 价格 ), where r 功率 is the wind power or photovoltaic utilization rate calculated based on power, r 价格 is the utilization rate of wind power or photovoltaic power calculated based on the price; k 价格 Represents the weight coefficient of price, k 功率 Indicates the power weight coefficient, the default value is 0.5. 价格 is the utilization rate of wind power or photovoltaic power calculated based on price. k represents the weight coefficient of the two algorithms of price or power, and the default value is 0.5. If there are business experts involved in the province, different values ​​can be set.

[0097] Step 4: Calculate the year-on-year and month-on-month changes in the above loss rates and utilization rates to analyze the change trend.

[0098] The year-on-year and month-on-month calculations are done using the following formula:

[0099] delta 同比 =r 本月 -r 去年同月

[0100] delta 环比 =r 本月 -r 上月 Among them, the year-on-year and month-on-month data are calculated on a monthly basis. 同比 , using the utilization rate r this month 本月 Utilization rate compared with the same month last year 去年同月 , calculate the difference; delta 环比 , using the utilization rate r this month 本月 Compared with the utilization rate of last month 上月 Calculate, calculate the difference.

[0101] If the month-on-month rate is greater than or equal to 10%, for example, the utilization rate this month is 92% and last month is 80%, it means that the utilization rate this month has increased significantly. If it is less than or equal to -10%, for example, the utilization rate this month is 80% and last month is 92%, it means that the utilization rate this month has decreased significantly. If it is between -10% and 10%, it means that there is no significant change in the utilization rate this month. The judgment method for year-on-year is the same as that for month-on-month.

Claims

1. A new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market, characterized in that: The steps include: S1. Obtain the actual power and day-ahead power of wind power or photovoltaic power announced by the trading center, and obtain the extremely low price during the photovoltaic power output period and the extremely low price during the wind power output period; S2. If the day-ahead power is obtained, the loss rate is calculated based on the day-ahead power; if the day-ahead power is not announced, the loss rate is calculated based on the theoretical power, thereby calculating the first utilization rate; S3. If extremely low prices occur during the photovoltaic output period, the photovoltaic loss rate is calculated; If extremely low prices occur during wind power output periods, the wind power loss rate is calculated, thereby calculating the second utilization rate; S4. Calculate the overall utilization rate of new energy by using the first utilization rate or the second utilization rate according to actual conditions; S5. Calculate the year-on-year and month-on-month changes of the above-mentioned loss rates and the overall utilization rate of new energy, so as to analyze the trend of change.

2. A new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S2, the day-ahead power loss rate is calculated by the following formula: l 日前 =(P 日前 -P 实际 ) / P 日前 ; Among them, P 日前 represents the day-ahead power, P 实际 Indicates the actual power, l 日前 represents the loss rate calculated based on the day-ahead power; The loss rate is calculated based on the theoretical power using the following formula: l 理论 =(P 理论 -P 实际 ) / P 理论 ; Among them, P 理论 Indicates theoretical power. Theoretical power is calculated using the table lookup method. 理论 Indicates the loss rate calculated based on theoretical power.

3. The new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The theoretical power is calculated by the following formula: P 理论 =P 历史同期 *Cap 当期 / Cap 历史同期 ; Among them, P 理论 is the theoretical power, Cap 当期 is the installed capacity of the current period, Cap 历史同期 is the installed capacity in the same period of history, P 历史同期 is the power corresponding to the same period in history.

4. The new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The first utilization rate is calculated by the following formula: r1＝100％-l； Where l is the loss rate calculated based on the day-ahead power or the loss rate calculated based on the theoretical power.

5. The new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S3, the photovoltaic loss rate is calculated by the following formula: l 光伏 =T 极低价 / T; Where, T 极低价 represents the length of time when the photovoltaic power generation price is extremely low, T represents the total length of the photovoltaic power generation period, l 光伏 Represents the photovoltaic loss rate; the extremely low price refers to the lower limit of the scenario of the electricity clearing price in the region; The wind power loss rate is calculated by the following formula: l 风电 =T 极低价 / T; Where, T 极低价 represents the length of time when wind power has extremely low prices, T represents the total length of the wind power output period, l 风电 Represents the wind power loss rate.

6. A new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market according to claim 5, characterized in that: The second utilization rate is calculated by the following formula: r2＝100％-l； Among them, r2 is represented by wind power utilization rate or photovoltaic utilization rate. The wind power utilization rate is 100% minus the wind power loss rate, and the photovoltaic utilization rate is 100% minus the photovoltaic loss rate.

7. The new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S4: If the actual situation can calculate the utilization rate by both power and price, then calculate the difference between the first utilization rate and the second utilization rate and determine whether it is less than 15%; If the difference between the first utilization rate and the second utilization rate is less than or equal to 15%, the overall utilization rate of the new energy is calculated using the first utilization rate; If the difference between the first utilization rate and the second utilization rate is greater than 15%, the weighted average utilization rates of wind power and photovoltaic power are calculated first, and then the overall utilization rate of new energy is calculated; If the actual situation can only calculate the utilization rate by power or price, then calculate the utilization rate by the corresponding method.

8. The new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market according to claim 7 is characterized in that: The calculation of the overall utilization rate of new energy through the first utilization rate is calculated by the following formula: r new energy = (r wind power × Cap wind power + r photovoltaic × Cap photovoltaic) / (Cap wind power + Cap photovoltaic); Among them, r 风电 Indicates the wind power utilization rate in the power calculation process, r 光伏 Indicates the photovoltaic utilization rate in the power calculation process, Cap 风电 Indicates the wind power installed capacity in the power calculation process, Cap 光伏 Indicates the photovoltaic installed capacity used in the power calculation process.

9. The new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market according to claim 7 is characterized in that: The weighted average utilization rates of wind power and photovoltaic power are first calculated, and then the overall utilization rate of new energy is calculated by the following formula: r=(r 功率 ×k 功率 +r 价格 ×k 价格 ) / (k 功率 +k 价格 ); Among them, r 功率 is the wind power or photovoltaic utilization rate calculated based on power, r 价格 is the utilization rate of wind power or photovoltaic power calculated based on the price; k 价格 Represents the weight coefficient of price, k 功率 Indicates the power weight coefficient, the default value is 0.

5.

10. The new energy utilization rate evaluation method based on the electricity spot market according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S5, the year-on-year and month-on-month calculations are performed using the following formula: delta 同比 =r 本月 -r 去年同月 delta 环比 =r 本月 -r 上月 ; Among them, the same period last year and the same period last year are both calculated on a monthly basis. 同比 , using the utilization rate r this month 本月 Utilization rate compared with the same month last year 去年同月 , calculate the difference; delta 环比 , using the utilization rate r this month 本月 Compared with the utilization rate of last month 上月 Calculate the difference; taking the month-on-month comparison as an example, if the difference is greater than or equal to 10%, the utilization rate this month has increased significantly; if the difference is less than or equal to -10%, the utilization rate this month has decreased significantly; if the difference is in the range of -10% to 10%, there is no significant change in the utilization rate this month; the year-on-year judgment method is the same as the month-on-month comparison.

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