Carbon emission benefit evaluation method and system of subway system
Through the method based on population distribution and counterfactual simulation, the traffic carbon emissions in the subway system and the subway without the subway system are calculated, and the problem of low accuracy of the carbon emission assessment results of the subway system is solved, and a refined evaluation of the carbon reduction benefits of subway system operation is achieved.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202510493509.2
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2025-04-18
- Publication Date
- 2025-08-29
AI Technical Summary
In the prior art, the accuracy of the carbon emission assessment results of the subway system is low, and it is difficult to fully consider the complexity of individual behavior and selection. The data collection period is long, which affects the accuracy of the assessment results.
By determining the travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of the target city, counterfactual simulation and multimodal traffic distribution simulation are used to calculate the traffic carbon emissions in the subway system and the subway without the subway system, the impact of population distribution is analyzed using discrete selection methods and fixed-effect panel data regression model to evaluate the carbon emission benefits of the subway system.
It has achieved an accurate assessment of the carbon reduction benefits of subway system operations, overcomes the shortcomings of the impact of mixed variables and the difficulty of data collection in the existing technology, and provides a scientific and refined evaluation method.
Smart Images
Figure CN120562991A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of carbon emission benefit assessment, and in particular to a method and system for assessing the carbon emission benefit of a subway system. Background Art
[0002] Against the backdrop of global climate change and sustainable development, reducing carbon emissions has become a critical issue of shared concern worldwide. As a low-carbon and environmentally friendly mode of transportation, subways are widely considered to be an effective way to reduce carbon emissions from urban transportation. However, due to the large scale of subway system construction, especially underground projects, the carbon emission costs during the construction phase are extremely high, raising uncertainty about whether subways can effectively reduce urban carbon emissions. Scientifically and accurately evaluating the carbon emission benefits of subways to guide future subway planning and construction is of great practical significance.
[0003] Existing research on the carbon benefits of infrastructure can be divided into two main categories. The first type of research relies on observational data, inferring the benefits of policy interventions by comparing changes in carbon emissions before and after the implementation of such interventions. While this approach can directly reflect changes in carbon emissions caused by infrastructure construction, since policy interventions are often accompanied by changes in other factors, simple before-and-after comparisons cannot eliminate the influence of confounding variables, thus affecting the accuracy of the assessment results. Furthermore, the long construction and impact cycles of subways require extended data collection periods, making it difficult to obtain data suitable for comparative analysis. The second type of research adopts a macro perspective, using a top-down approach to infer the carbon benefits of policy interventions. This approach typically relies on a series of assumptions and analyzes the impact of infrastructure policies on the transportation system holistically. While this approach can provide a general overview of the overall trends in carbon emissions from policy interventions, it fails to fully account for the complexity of individual behaviors and choices, resulting in limited comprehensiveness and accuracy. Therefore, research relying solely on a macro perspective cannot meet the current demand for refined and scientific assessments. Summary of the Invention
[0004] The present invention provides a method and system for evaluating the carbon emission benefits of a subway system, which is used to address the defects in the existing technology, such as the low accuracy of carbon emission evaluation results due to complex influencing factors and the difficulty in obtaining data for comparative analysis, so as to accurately evaluate the carbon reduction benefits of subway system operations.
[0005] The present invention provides a method for evaluating the carbon emission benefits of a subway system, comprising: Determine the travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of the target city; Allocating a transportation mode and route to each travel demand based on the public transportation services of the target city and the travel demand distribution; If the public transportation service includes a subway system, a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, and a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation in which the public transportation service does not include the subway system. If the public transportation service does not include a subway system, a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, and a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation under the condition that the public transportation service includes the subway system; Based on the first traffic carbon emissions and the second traffic carbon emissions, the carbon emission benefits of the subway system are evaluated.
[0006] In one possible implementation, the method further includes: The utility of selecting the target transportation mode for each travel demand is calculated using the discrete choice method through the first formula, which is: ; in, Represents a given travel demand Transportation The utility, Indicates the Influencing factors, parameters It is The estimated coefficients of the factors; determining the probability of selecting each transportation mode based on the utility of the target transportation mode; Get the cost and route of each mode of transportation based on the destination navigation service; Each travel demand is assigned a mode and route based on the probability of choosing each mode and the cost and route of each mode.
[0007] In one possible implementation, the method further includes: Determining the number of daily trips made by residents based on the total population of the target city; The daily travel flow of the target city is determined based on the daily travel times of the residents.
[0008] In one possible implementation, the method further includes: Calculate the daily transportation carbon emissions including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand and the daily travel flow; The first annual transportation carbon emissions of the target city including the subway system are determined based on the daily transportation carbon emissions including the subway system.
[0009] In one possible implementation, the method further includes: Based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand and the daily travel volume, calculate the daily transportation carbon emissions excluding the subway system; A second annual transportation carbon emission amount of the target city excluding the subway system is determined based on the daily transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system.
[0010] In one possible implementation, the method further includes: The difference between the first traffic carbon emissions and the second traffic carbon emissions is compared, and the carbon emission benefits of the subway system are evaluated based on the comparison result.
[0011] In one possible implementation, the method further includes: A fixed-effect panel data regression model is used to analyze the impact of subway opening on the population distribution of the target city, and a counterfactual simulation is conducted to simulate the population distribution of the target city with or without a subway system. A population-based transportation demand distribution estimation method is adopted to determine the travel demand distribution based on the population distribution of the target city with or without a subway system.
[0012] The present invention also provides a carbon emission benefit evaluation system for a subway system, comprising the following modules: A determination module for determining travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of the target city; an allocation module, configured to allocate a transportation mode and a route to each travel demand based on the public transportation service of the target city and the travel demand distribution; a calculation module configured to calculate, if the public transportation service includes a subway system, a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, and calculate, through a counterfactual simulation, a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, when the public transportation service does not include the subway system; a calculation module configured to calculate, if the public transportation service does not include a subway system, a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, and calculate, through a counterfactual simulation, a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand in a case where the public transportation service includes the subway system; An evaluation module is used to evaluate the carbon emission benefits of the subway system based on the first traffic carbon emissions and the second traffic carbon emissions.
[0013] The present invention also provides an electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, the carbon emission benefit assessment method for a subway system as described above is implemented.
[0014] The present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements any of the above-described carbon emission benefit assessment methods for a subway system.
[0015] The present invention also provides a computer program product, comprising a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements any of the above-described methods for evaluating the carbon emission benefits of a subway system.
[0016] The carbon emission benefit evaluation method and system of a subway system provided by the present invention determine the travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of a target city; allocate a transportation mode and route to each travel demand based on the public transportation service of the target city and the travel demand distribution; if the public transportation service includes a subway system, a first transportation carbon emission including the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand, and a second transportation carbon emission excluding the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation under which the public transportation service does not include the subway system; if the public transportation service does not include the subway system, a second transportation carbon emission excluding the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand, and a first transportation carbon emission including the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation under which the public transportation service includes the subway system; and the carbon emission benefit of the subway system is evaluated based on the first transportation carbon emissions and the second transportation carbon emissions. Compared to existing methods of inferring the benefits of policy interventions by comparing changes in carbon emissions before and after their implementation, this approach struggles to eliminate the influence of confounding variables, as policy interventions are often accompanied by changes in other factors. This approach also hinders the accuracy of assessment results, as the long construction and impact cycles of subways require long data collection cycles, making it difficult to obtain data suitable for comparative analysis. Furthermore, top-down approaches to inferring the carbon benefits of policy interventions fail to fully account for the complexity of individual behaviors and choices, making comprehensive and accurate assessments difficult. This proposal utilizes simulation technology to infer the subway system's impact on urban transportation carbon emissions, thereby accurately assessing the carbon reduction benefits of subway system operations. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0017] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present invention or the prior art, a brief introduction is given below to the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative work.
[0018] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the carbon emission benefit evaluation method for a subway system provided by the present invention.
[0019] Figure 2 This is a flowchart of the carbon emission benefit assessment framework for a subway system provided by the present invention.
[0020] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the fine-grained multimodal traffic distribution simulation and carbon emission benefit calculation framework provided by the present invention.
[0021] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of traffic travel demand estimation based on a general opportunity model provided by the present invention.
[0022] Figure 5 It is a schematic diagram of a multivariate aggregation model of traffic mode allocation based on optimal routes provided by the present invention.
[0023] Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram of calculating the carbon reduction benefits of subways provided by the present invention.
[0024] Figure 7 It is a structural diagram of the carbon emission benefit evaluation system for a subway system provided by the present invention.
[0025] Figure 8 It is a structural schematic diagram of the electronic device provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0026] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention more clear, the technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the embodiments described are only some of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.
[0027] To facilitate understanding of the embodiments of the present invention, specific embodiments will be further explained below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The embodiments do not limit the embodiments of the present invention.
[0028] Figure 1This is one of the flow charts of the carbon emission benefit evaluation method for a subway system provided by the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, the method includes the following: S11. Determine travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of the target city.
[0029] The embodiment of the present invention is combined with Figure 2 The carbon emission benefit evaluation framework flow chart of the subway system is described in detail. The embodiment of the present invention develops a fine-grained multi-modal traffic distribution simulation process, such as Figure 3 As shown in Figure 2, the process can simulate actual and counterfactual traffic distribution under a specified public transportation service capacity. It first reconstructs the travel demand distribution within the city, then allocates transportation modes and routes based on the existing public transportation services, and finally calculates carbon emissions based on the overall traffic distribution of the city.
[0030] Specifically, a fixed-effect panel data regression model can be used to analyze the impact of the opening of the subway on the population distribution of the target city, and a counterfactual simulation can be conducted to simulate the population distribution of the target city with or without a subway system. A population-based transportation demand distribution estimation method is used to determine the travel demand distribution based on the population distribution of the target city with or without a subway system.
[0031] Specifically, a fixed-effect panel data regression model is used to analyze the impact of subway opening on urban grid-level population distribution, and further deduce the population distribution under the counterfactual scenario, that is, how the urban population distribution will change if certain subway lines are not built.
[0032] For example, taking the grid as the smallest spatial unit for analysis, the following variables are extracted for each grid from 2010 to 2020: population and number of subway stations, as input variables for panel data. The regression model can be expressed as: in, Indicates the year Time Grid population, is the explanatory variable, that is, year Time Grid The number of subway stations. is the intercept term, is the regression coefficient that measures the effect of subway station locations on population size, represents individual (entity) effects that control for unobserved characteristics unique to each grid (e.g., spatial properties), represents a time effect, accounting for systematic factors in a particular year (e.g., economic or policy changes). is the error term.
[0033] When performing counterfactual population inference, the input explanatory variables are replaced by , that is, if the subway network is not built, the grid In the year In order to ensure that the total population of each year is consistent with the actual population of that year, and assuming that subway construction has no significant impact on the overall population size of the city, the total counterfactual estimation results are corrected. It can be expressed as: In this way, the counterfactual population distribution for each year was obtained if the subway network had not been built.
[0034] S12. Allocate a transportation mode and route for each travel demand based on the public transportation services of the target city and the travel demand distribution.
[0035] The embodiment of the present invention adopts a population-based traffic demand distribution estimation method, such as Figure 4 The diagram of the estimated travel demand based on the general opportunity model is shown in the figure. The potential destinations between the starting point and the end point are sorted by distance, and then the distance from the location is calculated according to the formula. To location Midway distance position The attraction of closer places. In this embodiment of the present invention, a general opportunity model is used to estimate the travel demand distribution of each city. This model regards population as a proxy variable for opportunity and frames the destination selection process as an evaluation of the benefits provided by different locations. The model contains two parameters to capture people's behavioral tendencies when evaluating these benefits: exploratory tendency and and cautious tendencies .Location of residents choose location The probability of is defined as follows: From location To location The travel flow is: in In the above formula, Indicates area Opportunities (population size), Indicates area Opportunities (population size), Indicates area Opportunities (population size), Indicates from position To location Midway distance position The attraction of closer places, For location To location distance, For location The distance to position j.
[0036] The city is divided into The population distribution data of each cell in the grid comes from WorldPop. Represents the average number of trips per resident per day, which will be estimated in the following section. (0.08) and cautious tendency (0.04) is taken directly from existing data. These parameters are estimated based on travel distribution data for Beijing, Suzhou, and Shenzhen. Existing equations only estimate the distribution of residents' destinations starting from home, while this embodiment of the present invention incorporates return trips into the travel distribution, thereby capturing travel demand for the entire city.
[0037] Furthermore, after determining the distribution of traffic demand within the city, the next goal is to allocate these demands to different transportation modes and routes. To this end, the embodiment of the present invention adopts a widely recognized transportation mode allocation method, namely a multivariate aggregation model, such as Figure 5 This model is based on discrete choice theory and assumes that decision makers choose one of multiple alternatives based on the utility of each option. The utility of a particular mode of transportation is determined by a combination of monetary cost, time cost, and other socioeconomic factors along the corresponding route, as expressed as follows: in, Represents a given travel demand Transportation The utility, Indicates the Influencing factors, parameters It is The estimated coefficients of the factors are based on 13,954 samples from multiple cities. The fitted values of the parameters are shown in Table 1.
[0038] Table 1 Fitting coefficients of the multivariate aggregate model for transportation mode assignment
[0039] For each travel requirement, you can refer to the existing navigation service API to obtain the time and money costs of the optimal route for different modes of transportation. Based on census data and income survey data, individuals in the age group (18, 35] are assigned a probability of 0.384, indicating that individuals in this age group account for 38.4% of all individuals. The income group (0, 6000) is assigned a probability of 0.395, indicating that individuals in this income group account for 39.5% of all individuals. The parking fee is set at 20 yuan.
[0040] Based on the utility values calculated for different transportation modes, the probability of choosing each transportation mode can be determined using the following equation: in, Indicates travel demand Select a mode of transportation The probability of the set Includes available transportation options: bicycle, bus, subway, electric car and gas car.
[0041] Furthermore, the number of daily trips of residents is determined based on the total population of the target city; and the daily travel flow of the target city is determined based on the number of daily trips of residents.
[0042] Specifically, based on the existing simulation, the city's travel distribution was reconstructed, including the probability of a certain travel demand occurring and the probability of that demand choosing a specific route and mode of transportation. However, in order to calculate the total travel distance for each mode of transportation, the total daily travel volume of the city must be determined. Once the total population of the city is known, the problem becomes estimating the average number of daily trips of residents, that is, estimating the parameters in the equation .
[0043] The China Urban Rail Transit Association continues to publish total usage data for urban rail transit systems, but in this embodiment of the present invention, the separate usage data for the subway system is limited to 2018 and 2019. In addition, there is a lack of statistical data on subway station traffic. In order to obtain a longer time span and more extensive comparative data, we first compare the differences in the usage data of urban rail transit systems and subway systems in 2018 and 2019. For cities with a difference of less than 10%, the rail transit usage can be approximated as subway usage data, and these cities are recorded as .for The actual subway station traffic data and simulation results are compared to estimate the For cities with large differences , referring to its 2019 subway passenger volume data, and estimating by comparing the actual subway passenger volume data and the simulated value Through the above methods, the total amount of various travel demands and transportation modes in each city within the study scope was successfully restored.
[0044] S13. If the public transportation service includes a subway system, a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand, and a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation in which the public transportation service does not include the subway system.
[0045] S14. If the public transportation service does not include a subway system, a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand, and a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation in which the public transportation service includes a subway system.
[0046] S15. Evaluate the carbon emission benefits of the subway system based on the first traffic carbon emissions and the second traffic carbon emissions.
[0047] If the public transportation service includes a subway system, the daily transportation carbon emissions including the subway system are calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand and the daily travel flow; based on the daily transportation carbon emissions including the subway system, the annual primary transportation carbon emissions of the target city including the subway system are determined.
[0048] Optionally, if the public transportation service does not include the subway system, the daily transportation carbon emissions excluding the subway system are calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand and the daily travel flow; based on the daily transportation carbon emissions excluding the subway system, the annual secondary transportation carbon emissions of the target city excluding the subway system are determined.
[0049] Specifically, such as Figure 6 As shown in Figure 2, assuming that the opening of the subway line does not directly affect the daily operation of the bus system and that bicycle use produces zero carbon emissions, the main impact of the subway opening on the overall transportation system's carbon emissions comes from changes in road vehicle use. To quantify this, the line-level carbon benefit is calculated based on the change in vehicle mileage caused by changes in passenger flow. Specifically, let represents the total daily personal mileage of a fuel vehicle, represents the total daily personal mileage of the electric vehicle, and If the subway line The counterfactual daily personal mileage before the project was built. The annual route-level carbon benefit can be expressed as: in, Indicates the life cycle carbon emissions per unit mileage of fuel vehicles, Represents the life cycle carbon emissions of electric vehicles. According to existing research reports, and The values are 184g / km and 78.7g / km respectively. represents the average number of passengers per ride, with a value of 1.26.
[0050] Furthermore, subway lines serve cities as a network, necessitating a calculation of the carbon emission benefits of the entire subway network. Because subway operations influence population distribution within cities, the simulation of counterfactual traffic patterns without a subway network requires consideration of changes in population distribution and their impact on travel behavior. Therefore, when simulating counterfactual traffic scenarios without a subway network, we first infer the city's population distribution if the network had not been built. This inferred population distribution is then input into the established traffic distribution simulation model. Based on the simulated traffic patterns, the corresponding counterfactual carbon emissions are calculated, thereby assessing the carbon benefits of the entire subway network.
[0051] Calculate the annual city-level carbon benefits of a metro network based on simulated traffic patterns without a metro network , whose expression is: in, Represents the total daily mileage of fuel vehicles, represents the total daily mileage of the electric vehicle, and and represents the counterfactual total daily mileage if the subway network had not been built. The remaining parameters are consistent with the line-level carbon benefit calculation equation.
[0052] Several embodiments of this method are described below: Example 1: Carbon emission benefit assessment of existing subway lines. This involves calculating the carbon emission reduction benefits of subway lines already in operation under current planning conditions.
[0053] 1) First, obtain and analyze the population distribution data of the study area. This data will serve as the basis for travel demand and be used to further infer travel demand for each grid.
[0054] 2) Next, travel distribution generation is performed. Based on population distribution, a travel demand generation algorithm is used to estimate the travel distribution of each region. This algorithm predicts the travel flow between regions based on population size and behavioral parameters.
[0055] 3) Transportation mode and route allocation. Based on the optimal route selection strategy, a transportation mode allocation algorithm is used to assign the appropriate transportation mode and route to each travel demand. This process takes into account factors such as the time and monetary costs of various transportation modes to optimize travel choices.
[0056] 4) Transportation Carbon Emissions Calculation Formula: Input the transportation mode and route distribution into the carbon emissions calculation formula. Based on the carbon emission coefficients of different modes of transportation (e.g., carbon emissions per unit mileage for fuel vehicles and electric vehicles), calculate the carbon emissions of each mode of transportation.
[0057] 5) Aggregate transportation carbon emissions. Finally, aggregate the carbon emissions from all modes of transportation to obtain the total transportation carbon emissions for the entire city or region.
[0058] 6) Counterfactual Travel Routes and Modes: At the route level, the impact of subway lines on population distribution is ignored. Therefore, in the counterfactual scenario, only the counterfactual costs of each mode of transportation are inferred. Specifically, for the possible travel routes returned by the navigation API, the fastest path that does not include the route to be evaluated is filtered out, and the time and money costs of this path are used to input the travel mode allocation.
[0059] 7) Counterfactual Transportation Carbon Emissions Estimation: Estimating carbon emissions for the counterfactual transportation model using the aforementioned process. The resulting calculation will yield the city's total transportation carbon emissions, assuming no subway network.
[0060] 8) Carbon Emission Benefit Assessment: By comparing carbon emissions with and without a subway network, the effectiveness of the subway network in reducing urban carbon emissions is assessed, thereby providing a basis for urban transportation planning and policy formulation.
[0061] Example 2: Carbon emission benefit assessment of existing subway lines. This involves calculating the carbon emission reduction benefits of an already operational urban subway line network under current planning.
[0062] Based on Example 1, step 6 is modified as follows: 6) Counterfactual Population, Travel Routes, and Modes: First, estimate the city's population without a subway network. Specifically, using a panel data regression model, infer the population without a subway network. Next, following the steps in Step 6 of Example 1, filter and obtain the fastest routes without a subway network. These routes are then fed into the travel distribution generation algorithm to simulate travel demand and traffic distribution without a subway network.
[0063] Example 3: Carbon emission benefit assessment of planned subway lines. This involves calculating the carbon emission reduction benefits of planned but unbuilt urban subway lines if they are completed in the future.
[0064] Based on Example 1, the optimal route and time and money costs in step 3 are updated and calculated using the optimal path and time and money costs if the planned route is available. The specific estimation method is to directly estimate the time and money costs that can be saved by the newly planned route based on the existing optimal subway route.
[0065] Example 4: Carbon emission benefit assessment of a planned subway network. This involves calculating the carbon emission reduction benefits of a city subway network consisting of multiple subway lines that are planned but not yet under construction, if completed in the future.
[0066] Based on Example 3, step 6 is modified as follows: 6) Counterfactual Population, Travel Routes, and Modes: First, estimate the city population under the updated subway network. Specifically, use a panel data regression model to infer the population under the updated subway network. Following the same principles as in Example 3, estimate the fastest routes under the new subway network and input them into the travel distribution generation algorithm to simulate travel demand and traffic distribution under the new subway network.
[0067] The carbon emission benefit evaluation method and system of a subway system provided by the present invention determine the travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of a target city; allocate a transportation mode and route to each travel demand based on the public transportation service of the target city and the travel demand distribution; if the public transportation service includes a subway system, a first transportation carbon emission including the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand, and a second transportation carbon emission excluding the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation under which the public transportation service does not include the subway system; if the public transportation service does not include the subway system, a second transportation carbon emission excluding the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand, and a first transportation carbon emission including the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation under which the public transportation service includes the subway system; and the carbon emission benefit of the subway system is evaluated based on the first transportation carbon emissions and the second transportation carbon emissions. Compared to existing methods of inferring the benefits of policy interventions by comparing changes in carbon emissions before and after their implementation, this approach struggles to eliminate the influence of confounding variables, as policy interventions are often accompanied by changes in other factors. This approach also hinders the accuracy of assessment results, as the long construction and impact cycles of subways require long data collection cycles, making it difficult to obtain data suitable for comparative analysis. Furthermore, top-down approaches to inferring the carbon benefits of policy interventions fail to fully account for the complexity of individual behaviors and choices, making comprehensive and accurate assessments difficult. This proposal utilizes simulation technology to infer the subway system's impact on urban transportation carbon emissions, thereby accurately assessing the carbon reduction benefits of subway system operations.
[0068] The carbon emission benefit evaluation system for a subway system provided by the present invention is described below. The carbon emission benefit evaluation system for a subway system described below and the carbon emission benefit evaluation method for a subway system described above can be referenced to each other.
[0069] Figure 7 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of the carbon emission benefit evaluation system for a subway system provided by the present invention, which specifically includes: The determination module 701 is used to determine the travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of the target city. Detailed descriptions can be found in the corresponding descriptions of the above method embodiments, which will not be repeated here.
[0070] The allocation module 702 is configured to allocate a transportation mode and route to each travel demand based on the public transportation services of the target city and the travel demand distribution. Detailed descriptions are provided in the corresponding descriptions of the above method embodiments, which will not be repeated here.
[0071] Calculation module 703 is configured to calculate, if the public transportation service includes a subway system, a first transportation carbon emissions amount including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, and to calculate, through a counterfactual simulation, a second transportation carbon emissions amount excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, when the public transportation service does not include the subway system. Detailed descriptions are provided in the corresponding descriptions of the above method embodiments and are not repeated here.
[0072] Calculation module 703 is configured to calculate, if the public transportation service does not include a subway system, a second transportation carbon emissions amount excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route assignment results for each travel demand, and to calculate, through a counterfactual simulation, a first transportation carbon emissions amount including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route assignment results for each travel demand, when the public transportation service includes the subway system. For detailed descriptions, please refer to the corresponding descriptions of the above method embodiments and will not be repeated here.
[0073] The evaluation module 704 is configured to evaluate the carbon emission benefits of the subway system based on the first traffic carbon emissions and the second traffic carbon emissions. Detailed descriptions are provided in the corresponding descriptions of the above method embodiments, which will not be repeated here.
[0074] Figure 8 An example of a physical structure diagram of an electronic device is shown below. Figure 8As shown, the electronic device may include: a processor 810 , a communication interface 820 , a memory 830 and a communication bus 840 , wherein the processor 810 , the communication interface 820 and the memory 830 communicate with each other via the communication bus 840 . The processor 810 can call the logic instructions in the memory 830 to execute the carbon emission benefit evaluation method of the subway system, which includes: determining the travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of the target city; allocating the transportation mode and route to each travel demand based on the public transportation service of the target city and the travel demand distribution; if the public transportation service includes the subway system, then calculating the first transportation carbon emissions including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand, and calculating the second transportation carbon emissions excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand through counterfactual simulation under the condition that the public transportation service does not include the subway system; if the public transportation service does not include the subway system, then calculating the second transportation carbon emissions excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand, and calculating the first transportation carbon emissions including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand through counterfactual simulation under the condition that the public transportation service includes the subway system; and evaluating the carbon emission benefit of the subway system based on the first transportation carbon emissions and the second transportation carbon emissions.
[0075] Furthermore, the logic instructions in the aforementioned memory 830 can be implemented as software functional units and, when sold or used as independent products, can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, or the portion that contributes to the prior art, or a portion of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product, stored in a storage medium, includes instructions for enabling a computer device (which can be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the methods described in various embodiments of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes various media capable of storing program code, such as USB flash drives, mobile hard drives, read-only memories (ROMs), random access memories (RAMs), magnetic disks, or optical disks.
[0076] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a computer program product, which includes a computer program, which can be stored on a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the computer can execute the carbon emission benefit evaluation method of the subway system provided by the above-mentioned methods, the method including: determining the travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of the target city; allocating a transportation mode and route to each travel demand based on the public transportation service of the target city and the travel demand distribution; if the public transportation service includes the subway system, then calculating a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand, and calculating a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation under the condition that the public transportation service does not include the subway system; if the public transportation service does not include the subway system, then calculating a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand, and calculating a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation under the condition that the public transportation service includes the subway system; and evaluating the carbon emission benefit of the subway system based on the first transportation carbon emissions and the second transportation carbon emissions.
[0077] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, is implemented to execute the carbon emission benefit evaluation method of the subway system provided by the above-mentioned methods, the method comprising: determining the travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of the target city; allocating a mode of transportation and a route to each travel demand based on the public transportation service of the target city and the travel demand distribution; if the public transportation service includes the subway system, then calculating a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand, and calculating a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation under the condition that the public transportation service does not include the subway system; if the public transportation service does not include the subway system, then calculating a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand, and calculating a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation under the condition that the public transportation service includes the subway system; and evaluating the carbon emission benefit of the subway system based on the first transportation carbon emissions and the second transportation carbon emissions.
[0078] The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative. The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separate, and the components shown as units may or may not be physical units, i.e., they may be located in one location or distributed across multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected based on actual needs to achieve the objectives of the present embodiment. Persons of ordinary skill in the art will be able to understand and implement the present invention without inventive effort.
[0079] Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art will clearly understand that each embodiment can be implemented using software plus a necessary general-purpose hardware platform, or of course, hardware. Based on this understanding, the essence of the above technical solution, or the portion that contributes to the prior art, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as ROM / RAM, a magnetic disk, or an optical disk, and includes a number of instructions for causing a computer device (such as a personal computer, server, or network device) to execute the methods described in each embodiment or certain portions of the embodiments.
[0080] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the various embodiments of the present invention.
Claims
1. A method for evaluating the carbon emission benefits of a subway system, characterized in that: include: Determine the travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of the target city; Allocating a transportation mode and route to each travel demand based on the public transportation services of the target city and the travel demand distribution; If the public transportation service includes a subway system, a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, and a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation in which the public transportation service does not include the subway system. If the public transportation service does not include a subway system, a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, and a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system is calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand through a counterfactual simulation under the condition that the public transportation service includes the subway system; Based on the first traffic carbon emissions and the second traffic carbon emissions, the carbon emission benefits of the subway system are evaluated.
2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Allocating a transportation mode and a route to each travel demand based on the public transportation service of the target city and the travel demand distribution includes: The utility of selecting the target transportation mode for each travel demand is calculated using the discrete choice method through the first formula, which is: ； in, Represents a given travel demand Transportation The utility, Indicates the Influencing factors, parameters It is The estimated coefficients of the factors; determining the probability of selecting each transportation mode based on the utility of the target transportation mode; Get the cost and route of each mode of transportation based on the destination navigation service; Each travel demand is assigned a mode and route based on the probability of choosing each mode and the cost and route of each mode.
3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that After allocating a transportation mode and a route to each travel demand based on the public transportation service of the target city and the travel demand distribution, the method includes: Determining the number of daily trips made by residents based on the total population of the target city; The daily travel flow of the target city is determined based on the daily travel times of the residents.
4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The first transportation carbon emissions including the subway system are calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation result of each travel demand, including: Calculate the daily transportation carbon emissions including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results of each travel demand and the daily travel flow; The first annual transportation carbon emissions of the target city including the subway system are determined based on the daily transportation carbon emissions including the subway system.
5. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The second transportation carbon emissions excluding the subway system are calculated based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, including: Based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand and the daily travel volume, calculate the daily transportation carbon emissions excluding the subway system; A second annual transportation carbon emission amount of the target city excluding the subway system is determined based on the daily transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system.
6. The method according to claim 4 or 5, characterized in that The evaluating the carbon emission benefits of the subway system based on the first traffic carbon emissions and the second traffic carbon emissions includes: The difference between the first traffic carbon emissions and the second traffic carbon emissions is compared, and the carbon emission benefits of the subway system are evaluated based on the comparison result.
7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The method further comprises: A fixed-effect panel data regression model is used to analyze the impact of subway opening on the population distribution of the target city, and a counterfactual simulation is conducted to simulate the population distribution of the target city with or without a subway system. A population-based transportation demand distribution estimation method is adopted to determine the travel demand distribution based on the population distribution of the target city with or without a subway system.
8. A carbon emission benefit evaluation system for a subway system, characterized in that: include: A determination module for determining travel demand distribution based on the current population distribution of the target city; an allocation module, configured to allocate a transportation mode and a route to each travel demand based on the public transportation service of the target city and the travel demand distribution; a calculation module configured to calculate, if the public transportation service includes a subway system, a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, and calculate, through a counterfactual simulation, a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, when the public transportation service does not include the subway system; a calculation module configured to calculate, if the public transportation service does not include a subway system, a second transportation carbon emission amount excluding the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand, and calculate, through a counterfactual simulation, a first transportation carbon emission amount including the subway system based on the transportation mode and route allocation results for each travel demand in a case where the public transportation service includes the subway system; An evaluation module is used to evaluate the carbon emission benefits of the subway system based on the first traffic carbon emissions and the second traffic carbon emissions.
9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and running on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the computer program, the carbon emission benefit assessment method for a subway system according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.
10. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the carbon emission benefit assessment method for a subway system according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.