A distribution transformer burnout risk warning method and system

Abstract

The present invention provides a distribution transformer burnout risk warning method and system, including: based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity, determining the overload multiple interval where the distribution transformer overload severity is located; according to the predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability, calculating the distribution transformer burnout probability in the overload multiple interval where the current operating state is located; based on the distribution transformer burnout probability and the predefined distribution transformer burnout threshold, identifying whether the distribution transformer has a burnout risk; when the distribution transformer has a burnout risk, warning the burnout risk. Through the above scheme, the probability of the occurrence of the distribution transformer burnout risk can be reflected according to the load change of the distribution transformer, providing technical support for the distribution transformer operation and maintenance personnel.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of distribution network risk analysis and control, and in particular relates to a distribution transformer burnout risk early warning method and system. Background Art

[0002] With the rapid economic development of my country, daily life and industrial electricity consumption have increased rapidly. As electricity consumption continues to increase, some low-voltage lines are not properly maintained, and overload and short circuit phenomena occur from time to time. Due to the sharp increase in current, the coil temperature of the distribution transformer rises rapidly, resulting in accelerated aging of the insulation, resulting in fragmented shedding, exposing the wire body and causing inter-turn short circuits, burning the distribution transformer. Once a distribution transformer burns out, it will not only cause unnecessary economic losses to the power supply company, but also have a serious negative impact on residents' daily electricity consumption. How to identify and warn the risk of burning distribution transformers is very important for the inspection and maintenance of distribution transformers.

[0003] At present, the operation and maintenance personnel of distribution transformers often adopt measures to strengthen the preventive testing of the equipment and the operation protection control measures to prevent the burning of the transformer. However, this method cannot track the operating status of the distribution transformer in real time, and cannot realize the online monitoring and early warning of the risks of the distribution transformer. Equipment condition maintenance technology is a commonly used online monitoring and early warning technology for the operating status of the distribution transformer. However, the use of condition maintenance technology often requires the installation of additional sensors to sense the changes in various characteristic indicators such as the temperature and gas composition of the distribution transformer that reflect the operating status of the distribution transformer. The monitoring and early warning costs are extremely high. Especially when it is impossible to determine whether one or several distribution transformers have burned out, a large number of historical samples need to be collected for analysis and investigation during the maintenance process. Not only can the detection be inaccurate, but the workload is large, which increases the economic cost. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to solve the above problems, the present invention proposes a distribution transformer burnout risk warning method and system, which provides technical support for online monitoring and management of the operating status of distribution equipment and the inspection and maintenance of distribution equipment operators by obtaining the number of overloaded distribution transformers in different overload multiples and the probability of burning of the distribution transformer caused by them. Even when there is a small amount of data and the load cannot be determined, the burnout risk of the distribution transformer can be accurately identified.

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is achieved by adopting the following technical solutions:

[0006] A distribution transformer burnout risk warning method, the method comprising:

[0007] Based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity, determining the overload multiple interval in which the distribution transformer overload severity lies;

[0008] According to the predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability, the distribution transformer burnout probability in the overload multiple interval of the current operating state is calculated;

[0009] Based on the burnout probability of the distribution transformer and a predefined distribution transformer burnout threshold, it is identified whether the distribution transformer has a burnout risk; when the distribution transformer has a burnout risk, an early warning of the burnout risk is issued.

[0010] Preferably, the predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability includes:

[0011] According to the historical number of distribution transformers operating under overload and the number of distribution transformers burned, the burning probability of distribution transformers under different overload multiples is calculated, and the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of distribution transformers is given.

[0012] Furthermore, the collection of the number of distribution transformers that have been overloaded and the number of distribution transformers that have been burned down in history includes:

[0013] In the predefined unit time and distribution area, the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples in the interval (a, b) and the number of distribution transformers burned out are obtained.

[0014] Furthermore, the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval (a, b) is determined by the following formula:

[0015]

[0016] In the formula, (C1, C2…C n ) and (D1,D2…D n ) are the number of n groups of overloaded distribution transformers and the number of burned distribution transformers in the overload multiple interval (a, b), respectively.

[0017] Furthermore, for q1,q2…q n For any q, the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operating state is determined by the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the following formula:

[0018]

[0019] Where ε is a random variable, k is a parameter in the relationship between the overload multiple and the probability of distribution transformer burning, α is the overload multiple threshold of the distribution transformer, and x is the overload multiple of the distribution transformer.

[0020] Furthermore, the parameter k in the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the probability of distribution transformer burnout is determined by the following formula:

[0021]

[0022] In the formula, C i , D i is the number of overloaded distribution transformers in the overload multiple interval (a, b) and the number of distribution transformers burned due to overload in the i-th group of samples; The sample value representing the average probability of burning of the i-th group of distribution transformers, 1≤i≤n.

[0023] Further, based on the burnout probability of the distribution transformer and a predefined distribution transformer burnout threshold, identifying whether the distribution transformer has a burnout risk includes: obtaining the current overload multiple of the distribution transformer, and calculating the burnout probability of the distribution transformer under the current operating state according to the formula q=f(x,k); Represents the k value of n groups of samples (k1, k2…k n ) mean; i represents the i-th group of samples;

[0024] If the calculated probability of distribution transformer burning under the current operating state is greater than the pre-defined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold, the distribution transformer is judged to be in a burning risk operating state; if the calculated probability of distribution transformer burning under the current operating state is less than or equal to the pre-defined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold, the distribution transformer is judged to be in a normal operating state.

[0025] A distribution transformer burnout risk early warning system, the system comprising:

[0026] An acquisition module, configured to determine, based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity, an overload multiple interval in which the distribution transformer overload severity lies;

[0027] A calculation module, used for calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operating state according to a predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload severity and the distribution transformer burning probability;

[0028] The determination module is used to identify whether the distribution transformer has a burning risk based on the burning probability of the distribution transformer and a predefined distribution transformer burning threshold.

[0029] Preferably, the calculation module includes:

[0030] The collection submodule is used to calculate the burning probability of the distribution transformer under different overload multiples based on the collected historical number of distribution transformers operating under overload and the number of distribution transformers burned;

[0031] The determination submodule is used to determine the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer.

[0032] Furthermore, the acquisition submodule includes:

[0033] The collection unit is used to obtain the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples within the interval (a, b) and the number of distribution transformers burned out within a predefined unit time and distribution area.

[0034] The determination unit is used to determine the burning probability of the distribution transformer within the overload multiple interval (a, b) according to the following formula:

[0035]

[0036] In the formula, (C1, C2…C n ) and (D1,D2…D n ) are the number of n groups of overloaded distribution transformers and the number of burned distribution transformers in the overload multiple interval (a, b), respectively.

[0037] Furthermore, the determining submodule includes:

[0038] Define the unit for q1,q2…q n For any q, the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operating state is determined by the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the following formula:

[0039]

[0040] Where ε is a random variable, k is a parameter in the relationship between the overload multiple and the probability of distribution transformer burning, α is the overload multiple threshold of the distribution transformer, and x is the overload multiple of the distribution transformer.

[0041] Furthermore, the definition unit includes: a determination subunit, which is used to determine the parameter k in the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability by the following formula:

[0042]

[0043] In the formula, C i , D i is the number of overloaded distribution transformers in the overload multiple interval (a, b) and the number of distribution transformers burned due to overload in the i-th group of samples; The sample value representing the average probability of burning of the i-th group of distribution transformers, 1≤i≤n.

[0044] Preferably, the determination module includes a determination submodule, which is used to obtain the current overload multiple of the distribution transformer, and calculate the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the current operating state according to the formula q=f(x,k); if the calculated burning probability of the distribution transformer in the current operating state is greater than a predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold, then it is determined that the distribution transformer is in a burning risk operating state; if the calculated burning probability of the distribution transformer in the current operating state is less than or equal to a predefined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold, then it is determined that the distribution transformer is in a normal operating state.

[0045] Compared with the closest prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0046] The present invention proposes a distribution transformer burnout risk warning method and system, which aims to determine the overload multiple interval where the distribution transformer overload severity is located based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity; according to the predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability, the distribution transformer burnout risk warning is realized based on the functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the burnout probability, and the distribution transformer burnout probability in the overload multiple interval where the current operating state is located is calculated; by obtaining the number of overloaded distribution transformers in different overload multiple intervals and the probability of the distribution transformer burnout caused, technical support is provided for the online monitoring and management of the operating status of the distribution equipment and the inspection and maintenance of the distribution equipment operators, and the burnout risk of the distribution transformer can be accurately identified even when there is a small amount of data and the load cannot be determined; it has the advantages of good practicality and simple calculation. Based on the distribution transformer burnout probability and the predefined distribution transformer burnout threshold, it is identified whether the distribution transformer has a burnout risk, and when the distribution transformer has a burnout risk, the burnout risk is warned. It provides a new idea for the online monitoring and inspection of the operating status of the distribution equipment. It has achieved effective judgment on the risk of overload and burning of distribution transformers, provided technical support for online monitoring and management of the operating status of distribution equipment, and the inspection and maintenance of distribution equipment operators. It can accurately identify the burning risk of distribution transformers even with a small amount of data and unable to determine the load, greatly saving economic expenses. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0047] Figure 1 The present invention provides a flow chart of a method for early warning of the burning risk of a distribution transformer according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0048] The present invention proposes a distribution transformer burning risk warning method and system, which aims to obtain the number of distribution transformers operating under overload and the number of distribution transformers burned due to overload obtained by monitoring and statistics in historical unit time, and calculate the probability of distribution transformer burning corresponding to different overload severity; adopt probability statistics, data fitting, least squares parameter estimation and other methods to determine the functional mapping relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple x and the distribution transformer burning probability y; for a specific distribution transformer, according to the functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning, calculate the probability of distribution transformer burning under the current operating state, and compare it with a pre-set distribution transformer burning probability threshold to determine whether the distribution transformer has an overload burning risk.

[0049] like Figure 1 As shown, it specifically relates to a distribution transformer burning risk early warning method, including:

[0050] S1 determines the overload multiple interval of the distribution transformer overload severity based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity;

[0051] S2 calculates the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operating state according to the predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning probability;

[0052] S3 identifies whether the distribution transformer has a burning risk based on the burning probability of the distribution transformer and a predefined distribution transformer burning threshold; when the distribution transformer has a burning risk, issues an early warning of the burning risk.

[0053] In step S1, the severity of the distribution transformer overload is obtained by detection;

[0054] In step S2, the functional relationship between the severity of the distribution transformer overload and the probability of the distribution transformer burning is predefined, including:

[0055] According to the collected historical numbers of distribution transformers operating under overload and the numbers of distribution transformers burned, as well as the probability of distribution transformers burning under different overload multiples, the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of distribution transformers is defined.

[0056] The number of distribution transformers in historical overload operation and the number of distribution transformers burned out collected include: obtaining the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples within the interval (a, b) and the number of distribution transformers burned out within the preset unit time and distribution area. If the number of overload distribution transformers C with overload severity within the interval (a, b) and the number of distribution transformers burned out due to overload D are obtained, then by calculating the average probability of distribution transformer burning out due to overload within different overload multiple intervals, the functional relationship q=f(x, k) between the distribution transformer overload severity x and the distribution transformer burning out probability y is determined by using probability statistics, data fitting, parameter estimation and other methods.

[0057] Among them, the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval (a, b) is determined by the following formula:

[0058]

[0059] In the formula, (C1, C2…C n ) and (D1,D2…D n ) are the number of n groups of overloaded distribution transformers and the number of burned distribution transformers in the overload multiple interval (a, b), respectively.

[0060] Assume that the overload multiple of the distribution transformer is x, then the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer is q=f(x,k); where λ and k are parameters in the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer.

[0061] According to the functional relationship q = f(x, k), the probability of burning out of the distribution transformer under the current operating state is calculated as follows:

[0062]

[0063] Extract the sample value of the average probability of burning of the i-th group of distribution transformers from the data sample so that the following equation holds true:

[0064]

[0065] Use Newton's method, bisection method and other iterative methods to find the unknown parameter k in the function f(x, k), where a, b, C, and D are all known. That is, the above (q1,q2…q n ) i , 1≤i≤n.

[0066] Solve for the value of k under the i-th group of samples. For n groups of samples, we get n values ​​of k, i.e. (k1, k2…k n ), find (k1,k2…k n ) The value of is verified by the least squares method; if the verification fails, a new set of samples is selected for iterative calculation; if the verification succeeds, Substituting into q = f(x, k), we get That is the functional relationship expression between the distribution transformer overload multiple x and the distribution transformer burnout probability q.

[0067] Step S3 identifies whether the distribution transformer has a burning risk based on the burning probability of the distribution transformer and the predefined distribution transformer burning threshold. Specifically includes: in practical applications, the distribution transformer burning risk warning can be implemented according to the determined functional relationship. The specific judgment method is: if the overload severity of the distribution transformer can be monitored, the probability of the distribution transformer burning in the current operating state (under overload conditions) can be calculated according to the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning probability. If the calculated probability of the distribution transformer burning is less than the pre-set distribution transformer burning probability threshold, it is judged that the distribution transformer is in a normal operating state; if the calculated probability of the distribution transformer burning is greater than the pre-set distribution transformer burning probability threshold, it is judged that the distribution transformer is in a distribution transformer burning risk state, and a distribution transformer burning risk warning is performed.

[0068] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a distribution transformer burnout risk warning system, comprising:

[0069] An acquisition module, configured to determine, based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity, an overload multiple interval in which the distribution transformer overload severity lies;

[0070] A calculation module, used for calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operating state according to the predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning probability;

[0071] The determination module is used to identify whether the distribution transformer has a burning risk based on the burning probability of the distribution transformer and a predefined distribution transformer burning threshold; when the distribution transformer has a burning risk, an early warning of the burning risk is issued.

[0072] The calculation module includes a collection submodule, which is used to calculate the burning probability of distribution transformers under different overload multiples according to the collected historical number of distribution transformers in overload operation and the number of distribution transformers burned;

[0073] The determination submodule is used to determine the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer.

[0074] The acquisition submodule further includes: an acquisition unit, which is used to obtain the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples in the interval (a, b) and the number of burned distribution transformers within a predefined unit time and distribution area.

[0075] The determination unit is used to determine the burning probability of the distribution transformer within the overload multiple interval (a, b) according to the following formula:

[0076]

[0077] In the formula, (C1, C2…C n ) and (D1,D2…D n ) are the number of n groups of overloaded distribution transformers and the number of burned distribution transformers in the overload multiple interval (a, b), respectively.

[0078] The determination submodule also includes a definition unit for q1, q2…q n For any q, the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operating state is determined by the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the following formula:

[0079]

[0080] In the formula, ε is a random variable, k is a parameter in the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the probability of distribution transformer burnout, α is the overload multiple threshold of the distribution transformer, and x is the overload multiple of the distribution transformer; if x≤α, the probability q of distribution transformer burnout caused by overload is 0; if x>α, q increases with the overload multiple of the distribution transformer.

[0081] The definition unit includes a determination subunit, which is used to determine the parameter k in the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability by the following formula:

[0082]

[0083] In the formula, C i , D i is the number of overloaded distribution transformers in the overload multiple interval (a, b) and the number of distribution transformers burned due to overload in the i-th group of samples; The sample value representing the average probability of burning of the i-th group of distribution transformers, 1≤i≤n.

[0084] Among them, the determination module includes a determination submodule, which is used to calculate the burning probability of the distribution transformer under the current operating state according to the current overload multiple of the distribution transformer according to the formula q=f(x,k); Represents the k value of n groups of samples (k1, k2…k n ) mean; i represents the i-th group of samples;

[0085] If the calculated probability of distribution transformer burning under the current operating state is greater than the pre-defined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold, the distribution transformer is judged to be in a burning risk operating state; if the calculated probability of distribution transformer burning under the current operating state is less than or equal to the pre-defined distribution transformer burning risk probability threshold, the distribution transformer is judged to be in a normal operating state.

[0086] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented in one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that include computer-usable program code.

[0087] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0088] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0089] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process in the computer or other programmable device. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0090] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application rather than to limit its protection scope. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that after reading the present application, those skilled in the art can still make various changes, modifications or equivalent substitutions to the specific implementation methods of the application, and these changes, modifications or equivalent substitutions are all within the scope of the claims to be approved by the application.

Claims

1. A distribution transformer burnout risk warning method, characterized in that: The method comprises: Based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity, determining the overload multiple interval in which the distribution transformer overload severity lies; According to the predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability, the distribution transformer burnout probability in the overload multiple interval of the current operating state is calculated; Identifying whether the distribution transformer has a burning risk based on the burning probability of the distribution transformer and a predefined distribution transformer burning threshold, and issuing an early warning of the burning risk when the distribution transformer has a burning risk; Identifying whether the distribution transformer has a burning risk based on the burning probability of the distribution transformer and a predefined distribution transformer burning threshold includes: Obtain the current overload multiple of the distribution transformer, and calculate the burning probability of the distribution transformer under the current operating state according to the formula q = f(x, k); where, Represents the k value of n groups of samples (k1, k2…k n ) mean; i represents the i-th group of samples; If the calculated distribution transformer burnout probability under the current operating state is greater than the predefined distribution transformer burnout risk probability threshold, then the distribution transformer is judged to be in a burnout risk operating state; If the calculated distribution transformer burnout probability under the current operating state is less than or equal to the predefined distribution transformer burnout risk probability threshold, the distribution transformer is judged to be in a normal operating state; The burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple range (a, b) is determined by the following formula: In the formula, (C1, C2…C n ) and (D1,D2…D n ) are the number of n groups of overloaded distribution transformers and the number of distribution transformers burned out in the overload multiple interval (a, b); For q1,q2…q n For any q, the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operating state is determined by the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the following formula: Where ε is a random variable, k is a parameter in the relationship between the overload multiple and the probability of distribution transformer burning, α is the overload multiple threshold of the distribution transformer, and x is the overload multiple of the distribution transformer.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burnout probability includes: According to the historical number of distribution transformers operating under overload and the number of distribution transformers burned, the burning probability of distribution transformers under different overload multiples is calculated, and the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of distribution transformers is given.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The number of distribution transformers that have been overloaded and burned out in history includes: In a predefined unit time and distribution area, the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples in the interval (a, b) and the number of distribution transformers burned out are obtained.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The parameter k in the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the probability of transformer burnout is determined by the following formula: In the formula, C i , D i is the number of overloaded distribution transformers in the i-th group of samples within the overload multiple interval (a, b) and the number of distribution transformers burned due to overload; The sample value representing the average probability of burning of the i-th group of distribution transformers, 1≤i≤n.

5. A distribution transformer burnout risk warning system, characterized in that: The system comprises: An acquisition module, configured to determine, based on the acquired distribution transformer overload severity, an overload multiple interval in which the distribution transformer overload severity lies; A calculation module, used for calculating the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operating state according to the predefined functional relationship between the distribution transformer overload multiple and the distribution transformer burning probability; A determination module, for identifying whether there is a burning risk of the distribution transformer based on the burning probability of the distribution transformer and a predefined burning threshold of the distribution transformer, and issuing an early warning of the burning risk when there is a burning risk of the distribution transformer; The determination module includes a determination submodule, which is used to obtain the current overload multiple of the distribution transformer and calculate the burning probability of the distribution transformer under the current operating state according to the formula q=f(x,k); wherein, Represents the k value of n groups of samples (k1, k2…k n ) mean; i represents the i-th group of samples; If the calculated distribution transformer burnout probability under the current operating state is greater than the pre-defined distribution transformer burnout risk probability threshold, the distribution transformer is judged to be in a burnout risk operating state; if the calculated distribution transformer burnout probability under the current operating state is less than or equal to the pre-defined distribution transformer burnout risk probability threshold, the distribution transformer is judged to be in a normal operating state; The acquisition submodules include: A collection unit is used to obtain the number of distribution transformers with overload multiples within the interval (a, b) and the number of distribution transformers burned out within a predefined unit time and distribution area; The determination unit is used to determine the burning probability of the distribution transformer within the overload multiple interval (a, b) according to the following formula: In the formula, (C1, C2…C n ) and (D1,D2…D n ) are the number of n groups of overloaded distribution transformers and the number of distribution transformers burned out in the overload multiple interval (a, b); The determination submodule comprises: Define the unit for q1,q2…q n For any q, the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the overload multiple interval of the current operating state is determined by the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer in the following formula: Where ε is a random variable, k is a parameter in the relationship between the overload multiple and the probability of distribution transformer burning, α is the overload multiple threshold of the distribution transformer, and x is the overload multiple of the distribution transformer.

6. The system according to claim 5, characterized in that The calculation module comprises: The collection submodule is used to calculate the burning probability of the distribution transformer under different overload multiples based on the collected historical number of distribution transformers operating under overload and the number of distribution transformers burned; The determination submodule is used to determine the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the burning probability of the distribution transformer.

7. The system according to claim 5, characterized in that The definition unit includes: a determination subunit, which is used to determine the parameter k in the functional relationship between the overload multiple and the probability of distribution transformer burnout by the following formula: In the formula, C i , D i is the number of overloaded distribution transformers in the overload multiple interval (a, b) and the number of distribution transformers burned due to overload in the i-th group of samples; The sample value representing the average probability of burning of the i-th group of distribution transformers, 1≤i≤n.

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