Digital twin-driven marine riser-subsea wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction method and system

Abstract

The present invention provides a method and system for predicting dynamic response and fatigue of a marine riser-underwater wellhead system driven by digital twins, which belongs to the field of marine oil and gas engineering and includes the following steps: constructing a digital twin of the riser-underwater wellhead system, interacting with digital twins of the riser-underwater wellhead system, constructing a fatigue real-time prediction model, and managing twin response data and fatigue information based on digital twins. The digital twin-driven riser-underwater wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction system includes the following parts: a riser-underwater wellhead system data acquisition and preprocessing subsystem, a riser-underwater wellhead system data transmission subsystem, a riser-underwater wellhead system data storage subsystem, a riser-underwater wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction subsystem based on digital twins, and a riser-underwater wellhead system display and early warning subsystem.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of marine oil and gas engineering technology, and specifically, relates to a method and system for dynamic response and fatigue prediction of a marine riser-underwater wellhead system driven by a digital twin. Background Art

[0002] The marine riser-subsea wellhead system is the "throat" of marine oil and gas exploration and development. The actual working riser-subsea wellhead system is subjected to various loads such as waves and ocean currents. These loads act as excitations to drive the riser-subsea wellhead system and generate dynamic responses. The dynamic response characteristics analysis is an important task in the dynamic analysis of the riser-subsea wellhead system. In addition, the wave dynamic load and the platform movement caused by the waves can cause the riser-subsea wellhead system to vibrate in waves; the alternating discharge of vortices caused by the ocean current flowing through the riser-subsea wellhead system causes the riser-subsea wellhead system to vibrate in vortexes. The combined effect of wave-induced vibration and vortex-induced vibration makes the riser-subsea wellhead system very easy to cause fatigue damage, which eventually leads to fatigue fracture. Fatigue fracture is one of the main failure modes of the riser-subsea wellhead system. Therefore, the dynamic response and fatigue damage prediction of the riser-subsea wellhead system is of great significance for the safe and efficient operation and structural integrity of the riser-subsea wellhead system.

[0003] The existing dynamic response and fatigue damage calculation method is to perform numerical solution of dynamic response on land according to pre-recorded environmental parameters such as wave scatter plots and flow profiles before marine oil and gas development, and then use the Monte Carlo method to calculate fatigue damage. The dynamic response calculated by this method is not integrated with the monitoring data, and the fatigue damage obtained represents the annual average fatigue damage caused by environmental influences, and has poor real-time and accuracy. Another method is to install sensors designed with monitoring points on the riser-subsea wellhead system, extract the dynamic response monitoring data of the riser-subsea wellhead system, and calculate fatigue damage after relevant processing. This method ensures the accuracy of fatigue calculation, but the overall arrangement of sensors in the riser-subsea wellhead system requires a lot of manpower and material resources, resulting in low cost performance. At the same time, because the monitoring data needs to be processed and mechanically analyzed, the real-time performance is not good. Digital twin technology can solve this problem well. By building a digital twin of the riser-submarine wellhead system, the riser-submarine wellhead system response can be calculated in real time. By building a Kalman filter, the digital twin of the riser-submarine wellhead system and the response can be corrected in real time using the monitoring data of limited measurement points, and the twin data can be extracted to calculate the fatigue damage of the riser-submarine wellhead system. Therefore, designing a method and system for predicting the dynamic response and fatigue of the marine riser-submarine wellhead system has considerable theoretical and practical significance. Summary of the invention

[0004] The main purpose of the present invention is to overcome the shortcomings and deficiencies of the prior art, and to provide a digital twin-driven marine riser-underwater wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction method and system, to construct a digital twin of the riser-underwater wellhead system, to input the environmental parameters measured by the environmental parameter sensor into the digital twin of the riser-underwater wellhead system, and to use a Kalman filter to introduce the monitoring data of the riser-underwater wellhead system into the digital twin of the riser-underwater wellhead system, to achieve response correction of the riser-underwater wellhead system, to generate bending stress twin data of the riser-underwater wellhead system and to calculate fatigue damage, to ensure the real-time calculation of fatigue damage of the riser-underwater wellhead system and to reduce the manpower and material costs caused by sensor layout, to achieve the integrity and integration of monitoring, transmission, dynamic response, fatigue analysis and early warning of the riser-underwater wellhead system.

[0005] In view of the above problems, the technical solution proposed by the present invention is:

[0006] A digital twin-driven marine riser-subsea wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction method comprises the following steps:

[0007] Step S1: constructing a digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system, including establishing a geometric model of the riser-subsea wellhead system, establishing a physical model of the riser-subsea wellhead system, establishing a behavioral model of the riser-subsea wellhead system, and establishing a rule model of the riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0008] Step S2: information interaction between the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system, including information interaction mechanism between the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system and the physical entity and model correction of the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0009] Step S3: Construction of real-time fatigue damage prediction model.

[0010] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the step S1 further includes:

[0011] Step S101: establishing a geometric model describing geometric parameters of a riser-subsea wellhead system, including a riser-subsea wellhead system size model, a riser-subsea wellhead system shape model, and a riser-subsea wellhead system component assembly relationship model;

[0012] Step S102: establishing a physical model for recording physical parameters of the riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0013] Step S103: Based on the geometric model and physical model of the riser-submarine wellhead system, a behavior model of the riser-submarine wellhead system is constructed. The model calculates the motion response characteristics of the riser-submarine wellhead system after being subjected to complex marine environmental loads by establishing a motion control equation of the riser-submarine wellhead system.

[0014] Step S104: Based on the geometric model, physical model and behavioral model of the riser-underwater wellhead system, multi-structural constraint analysis, operation law analysis, pre-drilling design analysis and mechanical property analysis are performed on the riser-underwater wellhead system, so that the model has the ability to predict the dynamic response of the riser-underwater wellhead system; at the same time, a fatigue analysis rule model of the riser-underwater wellhead system is constructed to perform fatigue property analysis, so that the model has the ability to evaluate and predict the fatigue of the riser-underwater wellhead system.

[0015] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the step S2 further includes:

[0016] Step S201: reading the operating environment parameter data of the riser-subsea wellhead system, such as the RAO data of the deepwater drilling platform, the tensioner parameter data, and the environmental parameter data of waves, currents, and temperature;

[0017] Step S202: reading the status monitoring data of the riser-subsea wellhead system, including the inclination data, acceleration data, and strain monitoring data of the riser and the underwater wellhead;

[0018] Step S203: In combination with the established state geometric model and physical model of the riser-submarine wellhead system, the read riser-submarine wellhead system environmental parameter data is transmitted to the riser-submarine wellhead system behavior model, the riser-submarine wellhead system behavior model is driven by real-time environmental load calculation, and the dynamic response analysis of the riser-submarine wellhead system is performed to obtain the twin data of the riser-submarine wellhead system, and the twin data is used as a reference to monitor the behavior of the riser-submarine wellhead system, thereby realizing the data transmission from the digital twin of the riser-submarine wellhead system to the physical entity;

[0019] Step S204: collecting key data affecting the fatigue state and life of the riser-submarine wellhead system, such as the inclination signal, ocean current velocity signal, vibration acceleration signal, stress strain signal, etc. of the riser-submarine wellhead system through the inclination measurement system, ocean current velocity measurement system, vibration measurement system, and optical fiber sensor strain measurement system arranged underwater;

[0020] Step S205: The measured monitoring data is subjected to a data preprocessing process of filtering, noise reduction and missing value processing, and is transmitted through an underwater transmission system;

[0021] Step S206: In combination with the established geometric model and physical model of the riser-submarine wellhead system state, the riser-submarine wellhead system state monitoring data read from the underwater transmission system is transmitted to the riser-submarine wellhead system behavior model, and the established riser-submarine wellhead system Kalman filter is used to perform parameter identification and model correction on the riser-submarine wellhead system digital twin, and various parameters of the riser-submarine wellhead system digital twin are updated in real time to realize data transmission from the physical entity of the riser-submarine wellhead system to the digital twin, thus completing the data interaction and model correction process between the physical entity of the riser-submarine wellhead system and the digital twin.

[0022] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, in the step S102, a physical model of the riser and underwater wellhead components of the riser-subsea wellhead system is established, and the model includes the physical parameters of the unit weight of the riser and the underwater wellhead, elastic modulus, bending stiffness, axial stiffness, Poisson's ratio, torsional stiffness, additional mass coefficient, inertia force coefficient and drag force coefficient of the riser and the underwater wellhead.

[0023] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the step S3 further includes:

[0024] Step S301: extracting bending stress data of the riser-subsea wellhead system based on the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0025] Step S302: The annual fatigue damage calculation is related to the frequency, time, and SN curve parameters of the bending stress cycle of the riser-subsea wellhead system. The specific calculation method is as follows:

[0026]

[0027] Where D is the annual fatigue damage, unit is a -1 ;n c is the number of cycles; f is the average frequency, in Hz; S k is the stress amplitude of the kth cycle, in MPa; m and a are constants in the fatigue SN curve.

[0028] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, in step S301, the established riser-submarine wellhead system state geometric model and physical model are combined to transmit the read riser-submarine wellhead system environmental parameter data to the riser-submarine wellhead system digital twin for dynamic response characteristic analysis.

[0029] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, in step S301, the riser-submarine wellhead system status monitoring data read from the underwater transmission system is transmitted to the riser-submarine wellhead system digital twin for parameter identification and model correction in combination with the established riser-submarine wellhead system status geometric model and physical model to obtain the corrected riser-submarine wellhead system twin data.

[0030] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, in step S301, the bending stress data of the riser-subsea wellhead system is extracted from the twin data of the riser-subsea wellhead system.

[0031] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a digital twin-driven marine riser-subsea wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction system, comprising:

[0032] A riser-underwater wellhead system data acquisition and preprocessing subsystem, the riser-underwater wellhead system data acquisition and preprocessing subsystem comprising a riser-underwater wellhead system inclination measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system ocean current velocity measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system vibration measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system optical fiber strain measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system photoelectric conversion module, and a riser-underwater wellhead system data processing module;

[0033] A riser-subsea wellhead system data transmission subsystem, the riser-subsea wellhead system data transmission subsystem comprising a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system scrambling / descrambling module, a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system interleaving / deinterleaving module, a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system encoding / decoding module, and a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system modulation / demodulation module;

[0034] A riser-underwater wellhead system data storage subsystem, the riser-underwater wellhead system data storage subsystem comprising a riser-underwater wellhead system monitoring data storage module, a riser-underwater wellhead system preprocessing data storage module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin twin response data storage module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin model correction data storage module, and a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage storage module;

[0035] A riser-underwater wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction subsystem based on digital twin, the riser-underwater wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction subsystem based on digital twin includes a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin data transmission module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin analysis module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin parameter identification module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin model correction module, and a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage analysis module;

[0036] The riser-underwater wellhead system display and warning subsystem includes a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin response data real-time display module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin response warning module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage real-time display module, and a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage accumulation warning module.

[0037] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the monitoring data of the riser-subsea wellhead system is preprocessed, and the specific process is as follows:

[0038] The data transmitted and decoded by the underwater transmission system are respectively transmitted to the corresponding inclination monitoring data storage module, the ocean current velocity monitoring data storage module, the vibration monitoring data storage module, and the optical fiber strain monitoring data storage module in the watertight pipe-underwater wellhead system monitoring data storage module;

[0039] The monitoring data of the riser-subsea wellhead system in the storage module is subjected to preprocessing operations such as filtering and noise reduction, missing value processing, and normalization processing, and stored in the riser-subsea wellhead system preprocessing data storage module;

[0040] The preprocessed riser-subsea wellhead system monitoring data enters the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin through the riser-subsea wellhead system monitoring data transmission module for model correction and participates in the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin response analysis and calculation, thereby generating twin data.

[0041] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, fatigue damage is predicted by using the digital twin data of the riser-subsea wellhead system, and the specific process is as follows:

[0042] The digital twin of the riser-submarine wellhead system calculates the twin data and stores them in the corresponding inclination data storage module, ocean current velocity data storage module, acceleration data storage module, load data storage module, and stress data storage module in the twin response data storage module of the digital twin of the riser-submarine wellhead system;

[0043] The twin bending stress data of the riser-subsea wellhead system is extracted and imported into the fatigue damage calculation model of the riser-subsea wellhead system for analysis and calculation. The fatigue damage calculation is as follows:

[0044]

[0045] Where D is fatigue damage, dimensionless; N is the number of cycles; S is the cyclic stress amplitude, MPa; m and a are constants in the fatigue SN curve;

[0046] The calculated real-time fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system is transmitted to the fatigue damage storage module of the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system for storage, so as to perform the subsequent annual fatigue damage calculation. The annual fatigue damage calculation is as follows:

[0047]

[0048] Where D is the annual fatigue damage, a -1 ;n c is the number of cycles; f is the average frequency, Hz; S k is the stress amplitude of the kth cycle, MPa; m and a are constants in the fatigue SN curve, D i is the accumulation of the i-th fatigue calculation.

[0049] As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the riser-subsea wellhead system response and fatigue damage display and early warning, the specific process is:

[0050] The twin data of the riser-subsea wellhead system obtained by the operation of the digital twin is transmitted to the real-time display module and the response warning module of the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system. The real-time response of the riser-subsea wellhead system is displayed in real time by the liquid crystal display panel of the real-time display module of the response data, and the response warning module monitors and warns the real-time response data;

[0051] The calculated real-time fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system is transmitted to the fatigue damage real-time display module of the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system, and the fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system is displayed in real time by the liquid crystal display panel of the fatigue damage real-time display module;

[0052] At the same time, the fatigue damage accumulator in the fatigue damage real-time display module calculates the fatigue damage accumulation value and displays the accumulated fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system in real time. According to the fatigue damage accumulation calculation rules, 0 is set to indicate that fatigue damage has not accumulated, and 1 is set to indicate that fatigue damage accumulation has reached the limit value. Fatigue failure may occur at any time, and visual design is performed.

[0053] When the fatigue damage accumulation reaches 80% of the fatigue limit, the fatigue accumulation ∑D i =0.8, a yellow warning is issued, indicating that the fatigue damage accumulation is about to reach the limit value, and attention should be paid to the protection and maintenance of the serious fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system; when the fatigue damage accumulation reaches 100% of the fatigue limit, that is, the fatigue accumulation ∑D i =1, a red warning is issued, indicating that the fatigue damage accumulation has reached the limit value. After that, the operation of the riser-subsea wellhead system is more dangerous. The riser or underwater wellhead where the fatigue damage is serious should be replaced to ensure the safety of the riser-subsea wellhead system operation.

[0054] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: the present invention proposes a method and system for dynamic response and fatigue prediction of a marine riser-underwater wellhead system driven by digital twins. Monitoring data is obtained by arranging a monitoring sensor group on the physical entity of the riser-underwater wellhead system, a digital twin of the riser-underwater wellhead system is constructed, and the monitoring data is integrated with the Kalman filter to realize real-time data interaction and model correction between the physical entity of the riser-underwater wellhead system and the digital twin, so as to obtain the twin response data of the riser-underwater wellhead system and realize real-time prediction of fatigue damage of the riser-underwater wellhead system. This method utilizes the high-fidelity and real-time update characteristics of digital twins to establish a real-time data interaction mechanism between the physical entity of the riser-underwater wellhead system and the digital twin of the riser-underwater wellhead system. The real-time generation of twin data replaces the complicated dynamic analysis process of the riser-underwater wellhead system, ensuring the real-time performance of the dynamic response analysis and calculation. The limited monitoring point design of the riser-underwater wellhead system eliminates the human and material resources spent on arranging sensors along the entire length of the riser-underwater wellhead system, greatly saving analysis costs, and has significant advantages over traditional monitoring based on the entire length of the riser-underwater wellhead system.

[0055] The above description is only an overview of the technical solution of the present invention. In order to more clearly understand the technical means of the present invention, it can be implemented according to the contents of the specification. In order to make the above and other purposes, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the specific implementation methods of the present invention are listed below. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0056] Figure 1 A simplified flow chart of dynamic response and fatigue prediction of a riser-subsea wellhead system provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 2 A flow chart of dynamic response and fatigue prediction of a riser-subsea wellhead system provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the application of dynamic response and fatigue prediction of a riser-subsea wellhead system provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 4 A diagram showing the dynamic response and early warning interface of a riser-subsea wellhead system provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0060] Figure 5 A diagram of a fatigue prediction display and early warning interface of a riser-subsea wellhead system provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0061] Figure 6 A fatigue accumulation display and early warning design diagram for a riser-subsea wellhead system provided in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0062] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0063] Therefore, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention provided in the accompanying drawings is not intended to limit the scope of the invention claimed for protection, but merely represents selected embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0064] It should be noted that similar reference numerals and letters denote similar items in the following drawings, and therefore, once an item is defined in one drawing, further definition and explanation thereof is not required in subsequent drawings.

[0065] In order to clearly explain the relevant contents of the overall process of dynamic response and fatigue prediction of the riser-subsea wellhead system, the following is combined with Figure 1 and Figure 2 Provide detailed description of relevant content.

[0066] S1: Construction of digital twin of riser-subsea wellhead system, including the establishment of geometric model of riser-subsea wellhead system, physical model of riser-subsea wellhead system, behavioral model of riser-subsea wellhead system, and rule model of riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0067] S101: Establishing a geometric model describing geometric parameters of the riser-subsea wellhead system, including a riser-subsea wellhead system size model, a riser-subsea wellhead system shape model, and a riser-subsea wellhead system component assembly relationship model;

[0068] S102: Establish a physical model for recording physical parameters of the riser-subsea wellhead system. The specific implementation of this step is as follows:

[0069] ① Establish a physical model of the riser components in the riser-subsea wellhead system, which includes the physical parameters of the riser unit weight, elastic modulus, bending stiffness, axial stiffness, Poisson's ratio, torsional stiffness, additional mass coefficient, inertia force coefficient, and drag force coefficient;

[0070] ② Establish a physical model of the underwater wellhead components in the riser-subsea wellhead system, which includes the physical parameters of the underwater wellhead unit weight, elastic modulus, bending stiffness, axial stiffness, Poisson's ratio, torsional stiffness, additional mass coefficient, inertia force coefficient, and drag force coefficient of the underwater wellhead;

[0071] S103: Based on the geometric model and physical model of the riser-submarine wellhead system, a behavior model of the riser-submarine wellhead system is constructed. The model calculates the motion response characteristics of the riser-submarine wellhead system after being subjected to complex marine environmental loads by establishing motion control equations of the riser-submarine wellhead system.

[0072] S104: Based on the geometric model, physical model and behavior model of the riser-subsea wellhead system, multi-structure constraint analysis, operation law analysis, pre-drilling design analysis and mechanical property analysis are performed on the riser-subsea wellhead system, so that the model has the ability to predict the dynamic response of the riser-subsea wellhead system; at the same time, a fatigue analysis rule model of the riser-subsea wellhead system is constructed to perform fatigue property analysis, so that the model has the ability to evaluate and predict the fatigue of the riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0073] S2: Information interaction between digital twins of the riser-subsea wellhead system, including the information interaction mechanism between the digital twins of the riser-subsea wellhead system and the physical entity and the model correction of the digital twins of the riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0074] S201: Reading the operating environment parameter data of the riser-subsea wellhead system, such as the RAO data of the deepwater drilling platform, the tensioner parameter data, and the environmental parameter data such as waves, currents, and temperature;

[0075] S202: reading the status monitoring data of the riser-subsea wellhead system, including the inclination data of the riser and the underwater wellhead, the acceleration data, and the strain monitoring data;

[0076] S203: Combining the established state geometric model and physical model of the riser-submarine wellhead system, the read riser-submarine wellhead system environmental parameter data is transmitted to the riser-submarine wellhead system behavior model, and the riser-submarine wellhead system behavior model is driven by real-time environmental load calculation, and the riser-submarine wellhead system response is simulated to obtain the twin data of the riser-submarine wellhead system, and the twin data is used as a reference to regulate the riser-submarine wellhead system behavior, so as to realize the data transmission from the digital twin of the riser-submarine wellhead system to the physical entity;

[0077] S204: collecting key data affecting the fatigue state and life of the riser-submarine wellhead system, such as the inclination signal, ocean current velocity signal, vibration acceleration signal, and stress strain signal of the riser-submarine wellhead system, through the inclination measurement system, ocean current velocity measurement system, vibration measurement system, and optical fiber sensor strain measurement system arranged underwater;

[0078] S205: The measured monitoring data is subjected to data preprocessing processes such as filtering and noise reduction and missing value processing, and is transmitted through an underwater transmission system;

[0079] S206: Combine the established riser-subsea wellhead system state geometric model and physical model, transmit the riser-subsea wellhead system state monitoring data read from the underwater transmission system to the riser-subsea wellhead system behavior model, use the established riser-subsea wellhead system Kalman filter to perform parameter identification and model correction on the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin, update various parameters of the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin in real time, realize data transmission from the physical entity of the riser-subsea wellhead system to the digital twin, and complete the data interaction and model correction process between the physical entity of the riser-subsea wellhead system and the digital twin;

[0080] S3: Construction of real-time fatigue damage prediction model. The specific implementation of this step is as follows:

[0081] S301: Extracting the bending stress data of the riser-subsea wellhead system based on the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system. The specific implementation of this step is as follows:

[0082] ① Combining the established state geometric model and physical model of the riser-subsea wellhead system, the read riser-subsea wellhead system environmental parameter data is transmitted to the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin for response characteristic analysis;

[0083] ② Combined with the established riser-subsea wellhead system state geometric model and physical model, the riser-subsea wellhead system state monitoring data read from the underwater transmission system is transmitted to the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin for parameter identification and model correction, and the corrected riser-subsea wellhead system twin data is obtained;

[0084] ③ Extract the bending stress data of the riser-subsea wellhead system from the twin data of the riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0085] S302: Annual fatigue damage calculation is related to the frequency, time and SN curve parameters of the bending stress cycle of the riser-subsea wellhead system. The specific calculation method is as follows:

[0086]

[0087] Where D is the annual fatigue damage, a -1 ;n c is the number of cycles; f is the average frequency, Hz; S k is the stress amplitude of the kth cycle, MPa; m and a are constants in the fatigue SN curve;

[0088] The marine riser-underwater wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction method is applied to the marine riser-underwater wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction system. The system mainly includes five parts: riser-underwater wellhead system data acquisition and preprocessing subsystem, riser-underwater wellhead system data transmission subsystem, riser-underwater wellhead system data storage subsystem, riser-underwater wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction subsystem based on digital twin, riser-underwater wellhead system display and early warning subsystem;

[0089] The riser-underwater wellhead system data acquisition and processing subsystem includes a riser-underwater wellhead system inclination measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system ocean current velocity measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system vibration measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system optical fiber strain measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system photoelectric conversion module, and a riser-underwater wellhead system data processing module;

[0090] The riser-subsea wellhead system data transmission subsystem includes a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system scrambling / descrambling module, a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system interleaving / deinterleaving module, a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system encoding / decoding module, and a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system modulation / demodulation module;

[0091] The riser-underwater wellhead system data storage subsystem includes a riser-underwater wellhead system monitoring data storage module, a riser-underwater wellhead system preprocessing data storage module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin twin response data storage module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin model correction data storage module, and a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage storage module;

[0092] The digital twin-based riser-underwater wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction subsystem includes the riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin data transmission module, the riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin analysis module, the riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin parameter identification module, the riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin model correction module, and the riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage analysis module;

[0093] The riser-underwater wellhead system display and warning subsystem includes a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin response data real-time display module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin response warning module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage real-time display module, and a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage accumulation warning module;

[0094] In order to clearly explain the application of the dynamic response and fatigue prediction system of the riser-subsea wellhead system, the following is combined with Figure 3 Provide detailed description of relevant content.

[0095] (1) Installation of riser-subsea wellhead system monitoring system;

[0096] (2) The position signal, ocean velocity signal, vibration acceleration signal, inclination signal, and stress-strain signal obtained by the monitoring system are transmitted to the digital twin of the surface riser-underwater wellhead system through underwater transmission technology. The specific process is as follows:

[0097] ① Each sensor group arranged in the underwater riser-subsea wellhead system collects the inclination signal, ocean current velocity signal, vibration acceleration signal, and stress strain signal of the riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0098] ② The monitoring data signals collected by each sensor group of the riser-subsea wellhead system are transmitted through the underwater transmission system scrambling module to obtain the encrypted scrambled riser-subsea wellhead system monitoring data signals;

[0099] ③ The scrambled riser-subsea wellhead system monitoring data signal enters the underwater transmission system interleaving module to obtain the anti-interference riser-subsea wellhead system monitoring data signal;

[0100] ④ The riser-underwater wellhead system monitoring data signal processed by the underwater transmission system interleaving module enters the underwater transmission system encoding module for encoding to obtain the encoded riser-underwater wellhead system monitoring data signal;

[0101] ⑤ After the riser-submarine wellhead system monitoring data signal is encoded, it enters the underwater transmission system modulation module for modulation to obtain the modulated riser-submarine wellhead system monitoring data signal;

[0102] ⑥ The modulated riser-subsea wellhead system monitoring data signal is input into the underwater acoustic channel through the underwater acoustic transmitting transducer after digital-to-analog conversion, filtering, and signal amplification;

[0103] ⑦ After the hydroacoustic receiving transducer receives the signal, it undergoes operations such as signal amplification, filtering, analog-to-digital conversion, demodulation, decoding, de-interleaving, and descrambling to obtain the riser-underwater wellhead system monitoring signal;

[0104] (3) Data storage and preprocessing of the surface riser-subsea wellhead system. The specific process is as follows:

[0105] ① The data transmitted and decoded by the underwater transmission system are respectively transmitted to the corresponding inclination monitoring data storage module, ocean current velocity monitoring data storage module, vibration monitoring data storage module, and optical fiber strain monitoring data storage module in the riser-underwater wellhead system monitoring data storage module;

[0106] ② Perform pre-processing operations such as filtering and noise reduction, missing value processing, and normalization processing on the monitoring data of the riser-subsea wellhead system in the storage module;

[0107] ③ The pre-processed riser-subsea wellhead system monitoring data is passed through the riser-subsea wellhead system monitoring data transmission module into the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin for model correction and participation in the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin dynamic response analysis and calculation, thereby generating twin data;

[0108] (4) The digital twin data of the riser-subsea wellhead system is applied to fatigue damage prediction. The specific process is as follows:

[0109] ① The digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system calculates the twin data and stores them in the corresponding inclination data storage module, ocean current velocity data storage module, acceleration data storage module, load data storage module, and stress data storage module in the twin response data storage module of the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0110] ② Extract the twin bending stress data of the riser-subsea wellhead system, and import the fatigue damage calculation model of the riser-subsea wellhead system for analysis and calculation. The fatigue damage calculation is as follows:

[0111]

[0112] Where D i is the fatigue damage obtained from the i-th twin calculation and analysis, dimensionless; N is the number of cycles; S is the cyclic stress amplitude, MPa; m and a are constants in the fatigue SN curve;

[0113] ③ The calculated real-time fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system is transmitted to the fatigue damage storage module of the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system for storage, so as to facilitate the subsequent annual fatigue damage calculation. The annual fatigue damage calculation is as follows:

[0114]

[0115] Where D is the annual fatigue damage, a -1 ;n c is the number of cycles; f is the average frequency, Hz; S k is the stress amplitude of the kth cycle, MPa; m and a are constants in the fatigue SN curve, D i The accumulation of fatigue calculation for the i-th time;

[0116] (5) Fatigue damage display and early warning of riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0117] In order to clearly explain the relevant contents of the response analysis display and early warning of the riser-subsea wellhead system, the following is combined with Figure 4 Provide detailed description of relevant content.

[0118] ① Transmit the twin data of the riser-subsea wellhead system obtained by running the digital twin to the real-time display module and response warning module of the digital twin response data of the riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0119] The liquid crystal display panel of the response data real-time display module displays the real-time response of the riser-subsea wellhead system in real time, and monitors the response of the riser-subsea wellhead system;

[0120] The riser-subsea wellhead system response analysis obtained by using the flexible joint rotation angle as a constraint is pre-analyzed and the warning limit level is input into the riser-subsea wellhead system response warning module, and based on this, the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin response data is used for real-time warning.

[0121] When the monitoring information is in the safe area, the riser-subsea wellhead system works normally; in the warning area, the riser-subsea wellhead system can work but there is a certain risk; in the dangerous area, the riser-subsea wellhead system should stop working immediately, otherwise an accident is very likely to occur;

[0122] In order to clearly explain the relevant contents of fatigue damage prediction, display and early warning of riser-subsea wellhead system, the following is combined with Figure 5 and Figure 6 Provide detailed description of relevant content.

[0123] Fatigue damage prediction, display and early warning design of riser-subsea wellhead system. The specific process is as follows:

[0124] ① The calculated real-time fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system is transmitted to the real-time fatigue damage display module of the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system, and the fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system is displayed in real time on the liquid crystal display panel of the real-time fatigue damage display module;

[0125] ② At the same time, the fatigue damage accumulator in the fatigue damage real-time display module calculates the fatigue damage accumulation value and displays the accumulated fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system in real time. According to the fatigue damage accumulation calculation rules, 0 is set to indicate that fatigue damage has not accumulated, and 1 is set to indicate that fatigue damage accumulation has reached the limit value. Fatigue failure may occur at any time, and visual design is performed;

[0126] ③ Set the fatigue damage accumulation to 80% of the fatigue limit, that is, fatigue accumulation ∑D i =0.8, a yellow warning is issued, indicating that the fatigue damage accumulation is about to reach the limit value, and attention should be paid to the protection and maintenance of the serious fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system; when the fatigue damage accumulation reaches 100% of the fatigue limit, that is, the fatigue accumulation ∑D i =1, a red warning is issued, indicating that the fatigue damage accumulation has reached the limit value. After that, the riser-subsea wellhead system operation is more dangerous. The riser or underwater wellhead where the fatigue damage is serious should be replaced to ensure the safety of the riser-subsea wellhead system operation;

[0127] The embodiments of the present invention are described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods and devices according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions.

[0128] It can be known from the description of the above implementation methods that those skilled in the art can clearly understand that the present invention can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present application can be essentially or partly contributed to the prior art in the form of a software product, which can be stored in a storage medium such as ROM / RAM, a disk, etc., and includes several instructions for enabling a computer device to execute the methods described in various embodiments of the present invention or certain parts of the embodiments.

Claims

1. A digital twin-driven marine riser-subsea wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction method, characterized in that: The steps include: Step S1: constructing a digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system, including establishing a geometric model of the riser-subsea wellhead system, establishing a physical model of the riser-subsea wellhead system, establishing a behavioral model of the riser-subsea wellhead system, and establishing a rule model of the riser-subsea wellhead system; Wherein, the step S1 further includes: Step S101: establishing a geometric model describing geometric parameters of a riser-subsea wellhead system, including a riser-subsea wellhead system size model, a riser-subsea wellhead system shape model, and a riser-subsea wellhead system component assembly relationship model; Step S102: establishing a physical model for recording physical parameters of the riser-subsea wellhead system; In the step S102, a physical model of the riser and the underwater wellhead components of the riser-subsea wellhead system is established, and the model includes physical parameters such as the unit weight, elastic modulus, bending stiffness, axial stiffness, Poisson's ratio, torsional stiffness of the riser and the underwater wellhead, and the additional mass coefficient, inertia force coefficient, and drag force coefficient of the riser and the underwater wellhead; Step S103: Based on the geometric model and physical model of the riser-submarine wellhead system, a behavior model of the riser-submarine wellhead system is constructed. The model calculates the motion response characteristics of the riser-submarine wellhead system after being subjected to complex marine environmental loads by establishing a motion control equation of the riser-submarine wellhead system. Step S104: Based on the geometric model, physical model and behavioral model of the riser-subsea wellhead system, multi-structure constraint analysis, operation law analysis, pre-drilling design analysis and mechanical property analysis are performed on the riser-subsea wellhead system, so that the model has the ability to predict the dynamic response of the riser-subsea wellhead system; at the same time, a fatigue analysis rule model of the riser-subsea wellhead system is constructed to perform fatigue property analysis, so that the model has the ability to evaluate and predict the fatigue of the riser-subsea wellhead system; Step S2: information interaction between the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system, including information interaction mechanism between the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system and the physical entity and model correction of the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system; Wherein, the step S2 further includes: Step S201: reading the operating environment parameter data of the riser-subsea wellhead system, such as the RAO data of the deepwater drilling platform, the tensioner parameter data, and the environmental parameter data of waves, currents, and temperature; Step S202: reading the status monitoring data of the riser-subsea wellhead system, including the inclination data, acceleration data, and strain monitoring data of the riser and the underwater wellhead; Step S203: In combination with the established state geometric model and physical model of the riser-submarine wellhead system, the read riser-submarine wellhead system environmental parameter data is transmitted to the riser-submarine wellhead system behavior model, the riser-submarine wellhead system behavior model is driven by real-time environmental load calculation, and the dynamic response analysis of the riser-submarine wellhead system is performed to obtain the twin data of the riser-submarine wellhead system, and the twin data is used as a reference to monitor the behavior of the riser-submarine wellhead system, thereby realizing the data transmission from the digital twin of the riser-submarine wellhead system to the physical entity; Step S204: by using the inclination measurement system, ocean current measurement system, vibration measurement system, and optical fiber sensor strain measurement system arranged underwater, the inclination signal, ocean current signal, vibration acceleration signal, and stress strain signal of the riser-underwater wellhead system, which are key data affecting the fatigue state and life of the riser-underwater wellhead system, are collected; Step S205: The measured monitoring data is subjected to a data preprocessing process of filtering, noise reduction and missing value processing, and is transmitted through an underwater transmission system; Step S206: In combination with the established riser-submarine wellhead system state geometric model and physical model, the riser-submarine wellhead system state monitoring data read from the underwater transmission system is transmitted to the riser-submarine wellhead system behavior model, and the established riser-submarine wellhead system Kalman filter is used to perform parameter identification and model correction on the riser-submarine wellhead system digital twin, and various parameters of the riser-submarine wellhead system digital twin are updated in real time to realize data transmission from the physical entity of the riser-submarine wellhead system to the digital twin, thus completing the data interaction and model correction process between the physical entity of the riser-submarine wellhead system and the digital twin; Step S3: constructing a real-time fatigue damage prediction model; Wherein, the step S3 further includes: Step S301: extracting the bending stress data of the riser-subsea wellhead system based on the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system; in the step S301, combining the established state geometric model and physical model of the riser-subsea wellhead system, the read environmental parameter data of the riser-subsea wellhead system is transmitted to the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system for dynamic response characteristic analysis; Step S302: The annual fatigue damage calculation is related to the frequency, time, and SN curve parameters of the bending stress cycle of the riser-subsea wellhead system. The specific calculation method is as follows: Formula (1): In the formula, D is the annual fatigue damage, in a -1 ; n c is the number of cycles; f is the average frequency in Hz; S k For the k Secondary cycle stress amplitude, in MPa; m and a is a constant in the fatigue SN curve.

2. The method for dynamic response and fatigue prediction of a marine riser-subsea wellhead system driven by digital twin according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the step S301, the established riser-subsea wellhead system state geometric model and physical model are combined to transmit the riser-subsea wellhead system state monitoring data read from the underwater transmission system to the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin for parameter identification and model correction to obtain the corrected riser-subsea wellhead system twin data.

3. The digital twin driven marine riser-subsea wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S301, the riser-subsea wellhead system bending stress data is extracted from the riser-subsea wellhead system twin data.

4. A digital twin driven marine riser-subsea wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction system, the system is applicable to the method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that: The system comprises: A riser-underwater wellhead system data acquisition and preprocessing subsystem, the riser-underwater wellhead system data acquisition and preprocessing subsystem comprising a riser-underwater wellhead system inclination measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system ocean current velocity measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system vibration measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system optical fiber strain measurement sensor group, a riser-underwater wellhead system photoelectric conversion module, and a riser-underwater wellhead system data processing module; A riser-subsea wellhead system data transmission subsystem, the riser-subsea wellhead system data transmission subsystem comprising a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system scrambling / descrambling module, a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system interleaving / deinterleaving module, a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system encoding / decoding module, and a riser-subsea wellhead underwater transmission system modulation / demodulation module; A riser-underwater wellhead system data storage subsystem, the riser-underwater wellhead system data storage subsystem comprising a riser-underwater wellhead system monitoring data storage module, a riser-underwater wellhead system preprocessing data storage module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin twin response data storage module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin model correction data storage module, and a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage storage module; A riser-underwater wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction subsystem based on digital twin, the riser-underwater wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction subsystem based on digital twin includes a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin data transmission module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin analysis module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin parameter identification module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin model correction module, and a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage analysis module; The riser-underwater wellhead system display and warning subsystem includes a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin response data real-time display module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin response warning module, a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage real-time display module, and a riser-underwater wellhead system digital twin fatigue damage accumulation warning module.

5. The digital twin-driven marine riser-subsea wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction system according to claim 4, characterized in that: The monitoring data of the riser-subsea wellhead system is preprocessed, and the specific process is as follows: The data transmitted and decoded by the underwater transmission system are respectively transmitted to the corresponding inclination monitoring data storage module, the ocean current velocity monitoring data storage module, the vibration monitoring data storage module, and the optical fiber strain monitoring data storage module in the watertight pipe-underwater wellhead system monitoring data storage module; Perform filtering and noise reduction, missing value processing, and normalization preprocessing operations on the monitoring data of the riser-subsea wellhead system in the storage module, and store them in the riser-subsea wellhead system preprocessing data storage module; The preprocessed riser-subsea wellhead system monitoring data enters the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin through the riser-subsea wellhead system monitoring data transmission module for model correction and participates in the riser-subsea wellhead system digital twin response analysis and calculation, thereby generating twin data.

6. The digital twin-driven marine riser-subsea wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction system according to claim 4, characterized in that: The fatigue damage of the digital twin data of the riser-subsea wellhead system is predicted, and the specific process is as follows: The digital twin of the riser-submarine wellhead system calculates the twin data and stores them in the corresponding inclination data storage module, ocean current velocity data storage module, vibration acceleration data storage module, load data storage module, and stress data storage module in the twin response data storage module of the digital twin of the riser-submarine wellhead system; The twin bending stress data of the riser-subsea wellhead system is extracted and imported into the fatigue damage calculation model of the riser-subsea wellhead system for analysis and calculation. The fatigue damage calculation is as follows: Formula (2): In the formula, D is fatigue damage, dimensionless; N is the number of cycles; S is the cyclic stress amplitude, MPa; m and a is the constant in the fatigue SN curve; The calculated real-time fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system is transmitted to the fatigue damage storage module of the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system for storage, so as to perform the subsequent annual fatigue damage calculation. The annual fatigue damage calculation is as follows: Formula (3): In the formula, D is the annual fatigue injury, a -1 ; n c is the number of cycles; f is the average frequency, Hz; S k For the k Secondary cycle stress amplitude, MPa; m and a is the constant in the fatigue SN curve, D i For the i Fatigue calculations accumulate.

7. The digital twin-driven marine riser-subsea wellhead system dynamic response and fatigue prediction system according to claim 4, characterized in that: The specific process of displaying and warning the response and fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system is as follows: The twin data of the riser-subsea wellhead system obtained by the operation of the digital twin is transmitted to the real-time display module and the response warning module of the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system. The real-time response of the riser-subsea wellhead system is displayed in real time by the liquid crystal display panel of the real-time display module of the response data, and the response warning module monitors and warns the real-time response data; The calculated real-time fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system is transmitted to the fatigue damage real-time display module of the digital twin of the riser-subsea wellhead system, and the fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system is displayed in real time by the liquid crystal display panel of the fatigue damage real-time display module; At the same time, the fatigue damage accumulator in the fatigue damage real-time display module calculates the fatigue damage accumulation value and displays the accumulated fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system in real time. According to the fatigue damage accumulation calculation rules, 0 is set to indicate that fatigue damage has not accumulated, and 1 is set to indicate that fatigue damage accumulation has reached the limit value. Fatigue failure may occur at any time, and visual design is performed. When fatigue damage accumulation reaches 80% of the fatigue limit, fatigue accumulation When the fatigue damage accumulation reaches 100% of the fatigue limit, a yellow warning is issued, indicating that the fatigue damage accumulation is about to reach the limit value, and attention is paid to the protection and maintenance of the serious fatigue damage of the riser-subsea wellhead system; when the fatigue damage accumulation reaches 100% of the fatigue limit, the fatigue accumulation A red warning is issued, indicating that the accumulation of fatigue damage has reached the limit value. After that, the operation of the riser-subsea wellhead system is more dangerous. The riser or underwater wellhead where the fatigue damage is serious should be replaced to ensure the safety of the riser-subsea wellhead system operation.

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