A typhoon weather resident power restoration rate analysis method

Abstract

This invention discloses a method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather. The key technical points of the method include: step A1: generating a user rapid recovery index S3; step A2: generating a post-repair evaluation coefficient based on the user rapid recovery index; and step A3: generating a 24-hour power restoration rate based on the user rapid recovery index. This method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather can obtain the 24-hour power restoration rate value of users.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to an analytical method, and more specifically, to a method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather. Background Technology

[0002] Coastal areas are more susceptible to severe natural disasters such as flash floods, mudslides, and urban flooding under strong convective weather conditions such as typhoons, due to factors such as meteorology, geography, hydrology, and vegetation. These disasters have a significant impact on the normal operation of the social economy.

[0003] With economic and social development, electricity has become inseparable from social and economic operations, and electricity operation data can largely reflect the disaster situation in a region.

[0004] Traditional power outage index and recovery rate evaluation indicators, as well as power supply reliability evaluation indicators, can generally only be used for post-event assessments. They cannot solve the real-time situation assessment during natural disasters, let alone provide data support for disaster relief deployments by enterprises and governments.

[0005] When users can effectively restore power is of paramount importance and is a crucial indicator for evaluating power grid reliability. Therefore, how to effectively reflect the power grid's power restoration system is an issue that needs to be considered. Summary of the Invention

[0006] To address the shortcomings of existing technologies, the present invention aims to provide a method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather, which can yield the 24-hour power restoration rate value for users.

[0007] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides the following technical solution: A method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather includes step A1: generating a user rapid recovery index S3;

[0008] Step A2: Generate post-repair evaluation coefficients based on the user's rapid recovery index;

[0009] Step A3: Generate the 24-hour power restoration rate based on the user's rapid recovery index.

[0010] In summary, this invention has the following beneficial effects: By considering the user's perspective and combining important factors such as the typhoon's impact wind circle level and the duration of the typhoon's impact, a user rapid recovery coefficient index is constructed. The quantitative analysis results of the index, along with a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating the user's 24-hour power restoration rate, are systematically adjusted based on the timing of power restoration and the strength of power supply reliability to provide a reference for the construction of a "typhoon-resistant power grid" within the organization.

[0011] Using the affected grid as the evaluation object, by comparing the failure rate of 100 kilometers of lines within the affected grid with the average failure rate of lines in the city's affected grids, targeted work was carried out to strengthen, correct, and improve the distribution network for typhoon and wind prevention. Attached Figure Description

[0012] Figure 1 A logic diagram for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather;

[0013] Figure 2 This is a logic diagram of a method for analyzing the power restoration rate of power distribution lines during typhoon weather. Detailed Implementation

[0014] The present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. Identical components are denoted by the same reference numerals. It should be noted that the terms "front," "rear," "left," "right," "upper," and "lower" used in the following description refer to directions in the accompanying drawings, and the terms "bottom surface," "top surface," "inner," and "outer" refer to directions toward or away from the geometric center of a specific component, respectively.

[0015] Reference Figure 1 and Figure 2 As shown, to achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides the following technical solution: A method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather includes step A1: generating a user rapid recovery index S3;

[0016] Step Z1: Generate the line strength index S1;

[0017] Step Z2: Generate the rapid recovery index S2 of the distribution transformer;

[0018] Step A2: Generate post-repair evaluation coefficients based on the line resilience index, distribution transformer rapid recovery index, and user rapid recovery index.

[0019] Step A3: Generate the 24-hour power restoration rate based on the line resilience index, distribution transformer rapid recovery index, and user rapid recovery index.

[0020] The design of this invention constructs three indicators—line resilience coefficient, distribution transformer rapid recovery coefficient, and user rapid recovery coefficient—from three dimensions: lines, distribution transformers, and users, combined with important factors such as the typhoon impact circle level and the duration of typhoon impact. The quantitative analysis results of these indicators serve as a comprehensive benchmark for the 24-hour power restoration rate of lines, distribution transformers, and users. The final value of the 24-hour power restoration rate is systematically corrected based on the timing of power restoration and the strength of power supply reliability, providing a reference for the construction of a "typhoon-resistant power grid" within the organization.

[0021] Taking the disaster-affected grid as the evaluation object, by comparing the failure rate of 100 kilometers of lines in the disaster-affected grid with the average failure rate of lines in the city's disaster-affected grids, and relying on indicators such as the "power grid resilience index" and "equipment reliability index" to comprehensively consider influencing factors other than the 24-hour power restoration rate calculation formula, and in combination with the distribution network typhoon prevention construction standards, the 24-hour power restoration rate of lines is further revised, and targeted work is carried out to strengthen and improve the distribution network typhoon and wind prevention construction.

[0022] To more accurately reflect the impact of typhoons on the reliability of power supply to distribution transformers, this study analyzes indicators such as the maximum outage duration, average outage duration, grid power supply reliability, and transformer recovery rate within different time periods during typhoon impacts, from different perspectives including typhoons, strong typhoons, and super typhoons. Using the quintile method, dynamic analysis and comparison are conducted on the maximum outage duration, average outage duration, grid power supply reliability, and average recovery rate of distribution transformers in all affected grids across different time periods (recovery rate data are collected at nine time points: 2 hours, 4 hours, 6 hours, 8 hours, 10 hours, 12 hours, 16 hours, 20 hours, and 24 hours). Taking the affected grids as the evaluation object, a correction coefficient is used to adjust the 24-hour power restoration rate of the distribution transformers.

[0023] By leveraging marketing HPLC terminals and enhancing data monitoring and analysis capabilities, the system collects information from low-pressure meters to construct indicators such as low-pressure meter failure rate, maximum user downtime, and average user downtime. This allows for the evaluation of the resilience index of low-pressure equipment within the grid and the rapid response capability of equipment maintenance units, thereby correcting the 24-hour power restoration rate value for users.

[0024] Step A5 specifically includes:

[0025] B1, the 24-hour power restoration rate of the line, is calculated using the following formula:

[0026]

[0027] Where: H1 line 24-hour power restoration rate;

[0028] X1 The total number of lines whose power outages will not exceed 24 hours;

[0029] X0 Total number of power outage lines;

[0030] Q1 is the line strength coefficient, where Q1 is calculated based on S1.

[0031] If the 24-hour power restoration rate of the line exceeds 100% after correction, then 100% is used.

[0032] Line strength coefficient value table

[0033] <![CDATA[Line strength index (S1)]]> <![CDATA[Correction factor value (Q1)]]> 90 and above 1.05 90-80 1.02 80-70 1 70 and below 0.95

[0034] Step A5 specifically includes:

[0035] B2, the 24-hour power restoration rate of the distribution transformer, is calculated using the following formula:

[0036]

[0037] Where: H2 is the 24-hour power restoration rate of the distribution transformer;

[0038] The total number of distribution transformers whose R1 power outage lasts no more than 24 hours;

[0039] R0 is the total number of transformers experiencing power outages;

[0040] Q2 is the rapid recovery coefficient of the transformer, where Q2 is calculated based on S2.

[0041] When the 24-hour power restoration rate of the distribution transformer exceeds 100% after correction, it is taken as 100%.

[0042] Table of values ​​for the rapid recovery coefficient of distribution transformer

[0043]

[0044]

[0045] Step A5 specifically includes:

[0046] B3, the user's 24-hour power restoration rate, is calculated using the following formula:

[0047]

[0048] Where: H3 user's 24-hour power restoration rate;

[0049] The total number of users whose power outages last no more than 24 hours under Y1;

[0050] Y0 Total number of users experiencing power outages;

[0051] Q3 is the user's fast recovery coefficient, where Q3 is calculated based on S3.

[0052] If the user's 24-hour power restoration rate exceeds 100% after correction, then 100% is used.

[0053] User Quick Recovery Coefficient Value Table

[0054] <![CDATA[User Quick Recovery Index (S3)]]> <![CDATA[Correction factor value (Q3)]]> 80 and above 1.05 80-70 1.02 70-60 1 60 and below 0.95

[0055] 24-hour power availability for users

[0056] It should be calculated according to the following formula:

[0057]

[0058] Where: H4 user's 24-hour power availability rate;

[0059] Y2 utilizes technologies such as temporary power supply, rapid access to distributed power sources, and load recovery to temporarily restore the number of users;

[0060] Y0 Total number of users experiencing power outages.

[0061] Step A5 specifically includes:

[0062] B4, 24-hour power restoration rate: To effectively reflect the construction achievements of the "typhoon-resistant power grid" and comprehensively demonstrate the grid's ability to withstand typhoons, a weighted average of three indicators—line 24-hour power restoration rate, distribution transformer 24-hour power restoration rate, and user 24-hour power restoration rate—is calculated. The formula is as follows:

[0063] H = H1 × 0.1 + H2 × 0.2 + H3 × 0.7

[0064] Where: H represents the 24-hour power restoration rate of the interval.

[0065] The calculation objects for the power restoration rate, including the 24-hour power restoration rate of lines, distribution transformers, users, and the 24-hour power availability rate for users, can be adjusted according to actual needs. Within the municipal company, it is divided into three levels: municipal company, county company, and power supply station (township / street). The corresponding data are adjusted according to the scope of the objects. The power restoration rate indicators at the county company and power supply station levels can be used as an internal evaluation basis for disaster relief and repair speed and the construction of a "typhoon-resistant power grid".

[0066] From the three dimensions of lines, distribution transformers, and users, and combined with important factors such as the typhoon impact circle level and the duration of typhoon impact, three indicators are constructed: line resilience coefficient, distribution transformer rapid recovery coefficient, and user rapid recovery coefficient. The quantitative analysis results of these indicators serve as a comprehensive benchmark for the 24-hour power restoration rate of lines, distribution transformers, and users. The final value of the 24-hour power restoration rate is systematically corrected based on the time of power restoration and the strength of power supply reliability, so as to provide a reference for the construction of a "typhoon-resistant power grid" within the organization.

[0067] Index Score Correction Coefficient Table

[0068]

[0069]

[0070] Step A1 specifically includes:

[0071] Taking the affected grid as the evaluation object, the failure rate of 100 kilometers of lines within the affected grid was compared with the average failure rate of lines in the affected grids of the city. Based on indicators such as the "power grid resilience index" and "equipment reliability index", the influencing factors other than the 24-hour power restoration rate calculation formula were comprehensively considered. Combined with the distribution network typhoon prevention construction standards, the 24-hour power restoration rate of the lines was further revised, and targeted reinforcement and improvement work for distribution network typhoon and wind prevention construction was carried out.

[0072] Failure Rate Score Sheet per 100km

[0073]

[0074]

[0075] The formula for calculating the line resilience index score is as follows:

[0076]

[0077] Where: S1 line strength index score;

[0078] X Z Failure rate score per 100 kilometers of the affected grid;

[0079] n is the number of grid cells affected by the disaster;

[0080] K1 Typhoon Impact Wind Circle Classification Correction Factor;

[0081] Correction factor for the duration of impact of Typhoon K2;

[0082] k3 power supply area level correction factor.

[0083] Step A2 specifically includes:

[0084] To more accurately reflect the impact of typhoons on the reliability of power supply to distribution transformers, this study analyzes indicators such as the maximum outage duration, average outage duration, grid power supply reliability, and transformer recovery rate in different time periods during the typhoon impact period, from different dimensions including typhoons, strong typhoons, and super typhoons. Using the quintile method, a dynamic analysis and comparison of the maximum outage duration, average outage duration, grid power supply reliability, and average recovery rate in different time periods is conducted for all affected grids (recovery rate data is collected at nine time points: 2 hours, 4 hours, 6 hours, 8 hours, 10 hours, 12 hours, 16 hours, 20 hours, and 24 hours). Taking the affected grids as the evaluation object, a correction coefficient is used to adjust the 24-hour power restoration rate of the distribution transformers.

[0085] Evaluation form for rapid recovery capability of distribution transformers

[0086]

[0087]

[0088] The quintile scores for specific indicators such as maximum outage duration and average outage duration are calculated using the following formula:

[0089] P max P ave P k P s =Percentile(Array,k)

[0090] In the formula: P max P ave P k P s — Scores of specific indicators such as maximum outage duration and average outage duration of distribution transformers under the quintile algorithm;

[0091] Array is a set of special indicators for the whole city. For example, in the calculation formula of the maximum outage time of distribution transformers, Array represents the set of the maximum outage time of all disaster-affected distribution transformers in the city.

[0092] k was set at 0.84, 0.63, 0.37, and 0.16 respectively, based on benchmarking against provincial companies in the same industry.

[0093] Scoring method: Based on the quintile method, the maximum outage duration and average outage duration of distribution transformers are scored as follows: A = 5 points, B = 10 points, C = 15 points, D = 20 points, and E = 25 points; the grid power supply reliability rate and the 24-hour power restoration rate of distribution transformers are scored as follows: A = 25 points, B = 20 points, C = 15 points, D = 10 points, and E = 5 points.

[0094] Step A3 specifically includes:

[0095] By relying on the marketing HPLC terminal, we can enhance the data monitoring and analysis function, collect information from low-pressure meters, and construct indicators such as low-pressure meter failure rate, maximum downtime of users, and average downtime of users. This will help us test the resilience index of low-pressure equipment in the grid and the rapid response capability of equipment operation and maintenance units, and thus correct the 24-hour power restoration rate value of users.

[0096] User Quick Recovery Ability Evaluation Form

[0097]

[0098]

[0099] The quintile scores for specific indicators such as maximum outage duration and average outage duration are calculated using the following formula:

[0100] P′ max 、P′ ave P g 、P′k =Percentile(Array,k)

[0101] In the formula: P′ max 、P′ ave P g 、P′ k — Scores of specific indicators such as maximum user outage duration and average power outage duration under the quintile algorithm;

[0102] Array is a city-wide set of special indicator data. For example, in the formula for calculating the maximum downtime of users, Array represents the set of the maximum downtime of all users in the affected grids of the city.

[0103] k was set to 0.84, 0.63, 0.37, and 0.16 respectively, based on benchmarking against provincial companies in the same industry.

[0104] Step A2 also includes:

[0105] The formula for calculating the rapid recovery index score of distribution transformers is as follows:

[0106]

[0107] Where: S2 is the rapid recovery index score of the transformer;

[0108] P max Score for the maximum outage duration of the affected grid distribution transformer;

[0109] P ave Average outage duration score of distribution transformers in the affected grid;

[0110] P k Power supply reliability score of the affected grid distribution transformer;

[0111] P s Score for the 24-hour power restoration rate of the affected grid distribution transformer;

[0112] n is the number of grid cells affected by the disaster;

[0113] K1 Typhoon Impact Wind Circle Classification Correction Factor;

[0114] Correction factor for the duration of impact of Typhoon K2;

[0115] k3 power supply area level correction factor.

[0116] Step A3 also includes:

[0117] The formula for calculating the user's rapid recovery index score is as follows:

[0118]

[0119] Where: S3 user's rapid recovery index score;

[0120] P' max Score for the maximum downtime of affected grid users;

[0121] P' ave Average downtime score for affected grid users;

[0122] P' k Power supply reliability score for affected grid users;

[0123] P g Failure rate score for affected grid users;

[0124] n is the number of grid cells affected by the disaster;

[0125] K1 Typhoon Impact Wind Circle Classification Correction Factor;

[0126] Correction factor for the duration of impact of Typhoon K2;

[0127] k3 power supply area level correction factor.

[0128] Step A4 specifically includes:

[0129] The established indicators of line resilience coefficient, distribution transformer rapid recovery coefficient, and user rapid recovery coefficient already reflect, to a certain extent, the post-disaster repair speed of the power grid at the line, distribution transformer, and user levels. To comprehensively reflect the regional power grid's repair and recovery capabilities, the three coefficients are weighted and calculated, with weighting coefficients allocated according to the scope of disaster impact, the power grid repair strategies at the line, distribution transformer, and user levels, and their difficulty: the weighting coefficient for line resilience is set at 50%, the weighting coefficient for distribution transformer rapid recovery is set at 30%, and the weighting coefficient for user rapid recovery is set at 20%. The specific calculation formula for the post-repair evaluation coefficients is as follows:

[0130] S = S1 × 0.5 + S2 × 0.3 + S3 × 0.2

[0131] Where: S is the post-repair evaluation coefficient.

[0132] Among them, users are the focus of the power restoration rate, while the distribution transformer rapid recovery index and the line resilience index are used to assist the user rapid recovery index in evaluating the 24-hour power restoration rate.

[0133] Example 1: It also includes step Z1, generating the line strength index S1;

[0134] Step A2: Generate post-repair evaluation coefficients based on the line resilience index and user rapid recovery index;

[0135] Step A3: Generate the 24-hour power restoration rate based on the line resilience index and the user rapid recovery index.

[0136] Taking the above example, when only the line resilience index and the user rapid recovery index are available, the weighting coefficient of the line resilience index is set to 65%, and the weighting coefficient of the user rapid recovery index is set to 35%.

[0137] The weighted average of the two indicators, the 24-hour power restoration rate of the line and the 24-hour power restoration rate of the user, yields H1 of 0.2 and H3 of 0.8.

[0138] Where: S is the post-repair evaluation coefficient.

[0139] Example 2: It also includes step Z2, generating the transformer rapid recovery index S2;

[0140] Step A2: Generate post-repair evaluation coefficients based on the distribution transformer rapid recovery index and the user rapid recovery index;

[0141] Step A3: Generate the 24-hour power restoration rate based on the distribution transformer rapid recovery index and the user rapid recovery index.

[0142] When only the line resilience index and the user rapid recovery index are available, the weighting coefficient for the distribution transformer rapid recovery index is set to 55%, and the weighting coefficient for the user rapid recovery index is set to 45%.

[0143] The weighted average of the two indicators, the 24-hour power restoration rate of the distribution transformer and the 24-hour power restoration rate of the user, yields H2 of 0.25 and H3 of 0.75.

[0144] Example 3: It also includes step Z1, generating the line strength index S1;

[0145] Step Z2: Generate the rapid recovery index S2 of the distribution transformer;

[0146] Step A2: Generate post-repair evaluation coefficients based on the line resilience index, distribution transformer rapid recovery index, and user rapid recovery index.

[0147] Step A3: Generate the 24-hour power restoration rate based on the line resilience index, distribution transformer rapid recovery index, and user rapid recovery index.

[0148] In summary, when evaluating the user rapid recovery index S3 alone, a user rapid recovery coefficient index is constructed by combining important factors such as the typhoon impact circle level and the duration of the typhoon's impact from the user's perspective. The quantitative analysis results of the index, along with a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating the user's 24-hour power restoration rate, are systematically adjusted based on the timing of power restoration and the strength of power supply reliability. This information is intended as a reference for the construction of a "typhoon-resistant power grid" within the organization.

[0149] Using the affected grid as the evaluation object, by comparing the failure rate of 100 kilometers of lines within the affected grid with the average failure rate of lines in the city's affected grids, targeted work was carried out to strengthen, correct, and improve the distribution network for typhoon and wind prevention.

[0150] The above description is merely a preferred embodiment of the present invention. The scope of protection of the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. All technical solutions falling within the scope of the present invention's concept are within the scope of protection of the present invention. It should be noted that for those skilled in the art, any improvements and modifications made without departing from the principles of the present invention should also be considered within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather, characterized by: This includes step A1: generating the user's rapid recovery index S3; Step A2: Generate post-repair evaluation coefficients based on the user's rapid recovery index; Step A3: Generate the 24-hour power restoration rate based on the user's rapid recovery index; Step A1 specifically includes: By relying on the marketing HPLC terminal, we can enhance the data monitoring and analysis function, collect information from low-pressure meters, construct indicators such as low-pressure meter failure rate, maximum user downtime, and average user power outage time, test the resilience index of low-pressure equipment in the grid and the rapid response capability of equipment operation and maintenance units, and then correct the user's 24-hour power restoration rate value. The quintile scores for the specific indicators of maximum outage duration and average outage duration are calculated using the following formula: P′ max , P′ ave , P g , P′ k = Percentile(Array, k) In the formula: P′ max 、P′ ave P g 、P′ k —The scores of specific indicators such as maximum user outage duration, average user outage duration, user failure rate, and user power supply reliability rate under the quintile algorithm; Array represents the set of the maximum downtime for all affected grid users in the city; k was set at 0.84, 0.63, 0.37, and 0.16 respectively, based on benchmarking against provincial companies in the same industry. Step A1 further includes: The formula for calculating the user's rapid recovery index score is as follows: Where: S3 user's rapid recovery index score; P′ max Score for the maximum downtime of affected grid users; P′ ave Average power outage duration score for affected grid users; P′ k Power supply reliability score for affected grid users; P g Failure rate score for affected grid users; n is the number of grid cells affected by the disaster; K1 Typhoon Impact Wind Circle Classification Correction Factor; Correction factor for the duration of impact of Typhoon K2; k3 power supply area level correction factor.

2. The method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step A3 specifically includes: B3, the user's 24-hour power restoration rate, is calculated using the following formula: Where: H3 user's 24-hour power restoration rate; The total number of users whose power outages last no more than 24 hours under Y1; Y0 Total number of users experiencing power outages; Q3 is the user's fast recovery coefficient, where Q3 is calculated based on S3.

3. The method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather according to claim 2, characterized in that: Step A3 also includes: B4, the user's 24-hour power availability rate, is calculated using the following formula: Where: H4 user's 24-hour power availability rate; Y2 The number of users whose power supply was temporarily restored using temporary power supply, distributed power supply rapid access, and load recovery technology; Y0 Total number of users experiencing power outages.

4. The method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather according to claim 1, characterized in that: It also includes step Z1, which generates the line strength index S1; Step A2: Generate post-repair evaluation coefficients based on the line resilience index and user rapid recovery index; Step A3: Generate the 24-hour power restoration rate based on the line resilience index and the user rapid recovery index.

5. The method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather according to claim 4, characterized in that: It also includes step Z2, which generates the transformer rapid recovery index S2; Step A2: Generate post-repair evaluation coefficients based on the distribution transformer rapid recovery index and the user rapid recovery index; Step A3: Generate the 24-hour power restoration rate based on the distribution transformer rapid recovery index and the user rapid recovery index.

6. The method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather according to claim 5, characterized in that: Step A3 specifically includes: B1, the 24-hour power restoration rate of the line, is calculated using the following formula: Where: H1 line 24-hour power restoration rate; X1 The total number of lines whose power outages will not exceed 24 hours; X0 Total number of power outage lines; Q1 is the line strength coefficient, where Q1 is calculated based on S1.

7. The method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather according to claim 6, characterized in that: Step A3 specifically includes: B2, the 24-hour power restoration rate of the distribution transformer, is calculated using the following formula: Where: H2 is the 24-hour power restoration rate of the distribution transformer; The total number of distribution transformers whose R1 power outage lasts no more than 24 hours; R0 is the total number of transformers experiencing power outages; Q2 is the rapid recovery coefficient of the transformer, where Q2 is calculated based on S2.

8. The method for analyzing the power restoration rate of residents during typhoon weather according to claim 7, characterized in that: It also includes step A3, which specifically includes: B4, 24-hour power restoration rate, is calculated by weighting the three indicators: line 24-hour power restoration rate, distribution transformer 24-hour power restoration rate, and user 24-hour power restoration rate. The formula is as follows: H = H1 × 0.1 + H2 × 0.2 + H3 × 0.7 Where: H represents the 24-hour power restoration rate of the interval.

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