Shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning method and device

Abstract

The application discloses a shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning method and device. The method comprises the following steps: determining the microseismic event point risk level of the real-time fracturing well section of the target fracturing operation well according to the microseismic event point data of the target fracturing operation well and the pre-determined microseismic event point risk level standard; determining the construction pressure risk level of the real-time fracturing well section according to the construction pressure data and the construction discharge data of the target fracturing operation well and the pre-determined construction pressure drop early warning standard; determining the natural fracture / fault slip probability according to the risk level of the microseismic event point, the spatial distribution characteristics of the microseismic event point and the risk level of the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section of the target fracturing operation well; and issuing the early warning reminder of the casing deformation according to the natural fracture / fault slip probability and the position relationship between the microseismic event point and the wellbore of the real-time fracturing well section. The casing deformation can be effectively early warned to reduce the probability of the casing deformation, and the accuracy and reliability are higher.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of shale gas fracturing engineering technology, and in particular to a method and device for early warning of deformation of shale oil and gas casing. Background Technology

[0002] In recent years, casing deformation of varying degrees has occurred in shale gas blocks and shale oil development, leading to increased fracturing construction costs and difficulties, reduced number of fracturing stages, and serious consequences such as low single-well production and short well life cycle. Through literature review, researchers have found that casing deformation is mainly caused by fault (natural fracture) slip induced by hydraulic fracturing.

[0003] Currently, casing deformation during fracturing in shale gas and shale oil is the primary technical challenge hindering large-scale development of shale oil and gas. Engineering technicians have proposed several countermeasures for casing deformation, including wellbore trajectory optimization design, casing failure risk assessment, improving the steel grade and wall thickness of the casing, optimizing cementing quality, and adopting various methods such as reducing discharge and fluid volume during fracturing. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The inventors have discovered that some existing technical countermeasures for casing deformation have not achieved substantial results, and there is no method in the prior art for early warning of casing deformation based on precursor information of natural cracks / fault slippage.

[0005] In view of the above problems, the present invention is proposed to provide a method and apparatus for early warning of deformation of shale oil and gas casing that overcomes or at least partially solves the above problems.

[0006] In a first aspect, embodiments of the present invention provide a method for early warning of deformation in shale oil and gas casing, comprising:

[0007] The risk level of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured section of the target fracturing well is determined based on the microseismic event point data of the target fracturing well and the pre-determined risk level standard for microseismic event points; the risk level standard for microseismic event points is determined based on the microseismic data of fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs.

[0008] Based on the construction pressure data, construction displacement data, and pre-determined construction pressure drop warning standards of the target fracturing well, the construction pressure risk level of the real-time fracturing section is determined; the construction pressure drop warning standards are determined based on the construction pressure data of the already fractured wells.

[0009] The probability of natural fracture / fault slip is determined based on the risk level of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured well section of the target fracturing well, the spatial distribution characteristics of the microseismic event points, and the risk level of the construction pressure in the real-time fractured well section.

[0010] Based on the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage and the relationship between the microseismic event points of the real-time fractured well section and the wellbore location, an early warning of casing deformation is issued.

[0011] In some optional embodiments, the early warning method further includes:

[0012] Acquire microseismic data and construction pressure data of fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs;

[0013] The risk level standard for microseismic event points of the target fracturing well is determined based on the microseismic data of the already fractured wells;

[0014] The pressure drop warning standard for the target fracturing well is determined based on the construction pressure data of the already fractured well.

[0015] In some optional embodiments, the risk level criteria for microseismic event points of the target fracturing well are determined based on the microseismic data of the fractured well, including:

[0016] Microseismic event point data of hydraulic fracture morphology and microseismic event point data of natural fracture zones were selected from the microseismic data of the fractured wells.

[0017] Normal distribution analysis was performed on the moment magnitude and b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point data of the hydraulic fracture morphology and the microseismic event point data of the natural fracture zone, respectively. The risk level standard of the microseismic event point was determined based on the normal distribution. The risk level standard of the microseismic event point includes: the risk level standard of the moment magnitude and the risk level standard of the b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point.

[0018] In some optional embodiments, based on the construction pressure data of the fractured well, a pressure drop warning standard for the target fractured well is determined, including:

[0019] Obtain the pressure drop value of the fractured well connected to the natural fracture / fault, use the pressure drop value as the pressure drop classification warning value of the target fractured well, and determine the pressure drop warning standard of the target fractured well based on the pressure drop classification warning value.

[0020] In some optional embodiments, the risk level of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured section of the target fracturing well is determined based on microseismic event point data of the target fracturing well and a pre-established risk level standard for microseismic event points; including:

[0021] Acquire real-time microseismic event point data of the target fracturing well, and obtain the moment magnitude and b value corresponding to the real-time microseismic event point of the target fracturing well based on the real-time microseismic event point data;

[0022] Based on the moment magnitude and b-value corresponding to the real-time microseismic event point, and the range of b-values ​​and moment magnitudes corresponding to each risk level in the risk level standard for microseismic event points, the risk level of the microseismic event point in the real-time fracturing section of the target fracturing well is determined.

[0023] In some optional embodiments, the risk level of the microseismic event point in the real-time fracturing section of the target fracturing well is determined based on the moment magnitude, b-value corresponding to the real-time microseismic event point, and the range of b-values ​​and moment magnitudes corresponding to each risk level in the risk level standard for microseismic event points; including:

[0024] If the moment magnitude corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of the moment magnitude corresponding to the high-risk level in the moment magnitude risk level standard, and / or the b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of the b-value corresponding to the high-risk level in the b-value risk level standard, then the microseismic event point is determined to be at a high-risk level.

[0025] If the moment magnitude corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of moment magnitude corresponding to the low-risk level in the moment magnitude risk level standard, and the b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of b-value corresponding to the low-risk level in the b-value risk level standard, then the microseismic event point is determined to be at a low-risk level.

[0026] Otherwise, the microseismic event point is determined to be at a medium-risk level.

[0027] In some optional embodiments, the risk level of the real-time fracturing well section's construction pressure is determined based on the construction pressure data, construction displacement data, and pre-established construction pressure drop early warning standards of the target fracturing well; including:

[0028] Based on the construction curve data of the fractured well section and the real-time fractured well section of the target construction fracturing well, the pressure drop value and construction discharge rate of the real-time fractured well section are obtained.

[0029] Based on the range of the construction pressure drop warning standard that the pressure drop value of the real-time fracturing well section falls into and the change in the construction discharge rate, the risk level of the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section is determined.

[0030] In some optional embodiments, the risk level of the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section is determined based on the range of the construction pressure drop warning standard that the pressure drop value of the real-time fracturing well section falls within and the change in construction discharge rate; including:

[0031] If the change in the construction discharge rate between the real-time fracturing section and the already fracturing section of the target fracturing well is not greater than the preset threshold for the change in construction discharge rate, and the construction pressure drop value is not less than the pressure drop warning value, then the construction pressure is judged to be at a high-risk level.

[0032] If the change in the construction discharge rate between the real-time fracturing section and the already fracturing section of the target fracturing well exceeds the preset threshold for the change in construction discharge rate, and the construction pressure drop value is greater than the pressure drop warning value, then the construction pressure is judged to be at a medium risk level.

[0033] Otherwise, the construction pressure is judged to be at a low-risk level.

[0034] In some optional embodiments, the probability of natural fracture / fault slip is determined based on the risk level of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured section of the target fracturing well, the spatial distribution characteristics of the microseismic event points, and the risk level of the construction pressure in the real-time fractured well section; including:

[0035] If the microseismic event points of the real-time fractured well section are at a preset proportion of the preset microseismic event point risk level, then the natural fracture / fault is determined to meet the first activation condition.

[0036] If the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section is at the preset construction pressure risk level, then it is determined that the natural fracture / fault meets the second activation condition.

[0037] Determine whether the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured well section meet the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points under the activated state of natural fractures / faults; if so, determine whether the natural fractures / faults meet the third activation condition.

[0038] If a natural fracture / fault satisfies the first activation condition, the second activation condition, and the third activation condition, or satisfies the second activation condition and the third activation condition, then the natural fracture / fault is judged to be in a high slip probability state.

[0039] If a natural fracture / fault satisfies one of the first activation condition, the second activation condition, or the third activation condition, then the natural fracture / fault is determined to be in the intermediate slip probability.

[0040] Otherwise, the natural fracture / fault is judged to be in a low slip probability.

[0041] In some optional embodiments, determining whether the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured well section meet the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in a state where natural fractures / faults are activated includes: determining whether the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured well section meet the following conditions:

[0042] 1) The microseismic event points are asymmetrical with respect to the wellbore;

[0043] 2) 60% to 70% of the microseismic event points overlap in different fracturing sections of the target fracturing well, and they exhibit a linear distribution;

[0044] 3) During the fracturing process, the moment magnitude of microseismic event points within the preset range is a large matrix-level event, and the frequency of large moment magnitude event points appearing in the middle and late stages of fracturing is higher than the preset frequency threshold; the large matrix-level event is a microseismic event with a moment magnitude exceeding 0.

[0045] In some optional embodiments, a warning alert for casing deformation is issued based on the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage and the location relationship between the target fractured well's microseismic event point and the wellbore, including:

[0046] If the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage is within the preset slippage probability, and the distance between the microseismic event point and the wellbore gradually decreases as the fracturing operation progresses, an early warning of casing deformation will be issued.

[0047] Secondly, embodiments of the present invention provide a shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning device, comprising:

[0048] The first determination module: determines the risk level of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured section of the target fracturing well based on the microseismic event point data of the target fracturing well and the pre-determined risk level standard of microseismic event points; the risk level standard of microseismic event points is determined based on the microseismic data of fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs;

[0049] The second determining module: Based on the construction pressure data, construction displacement data, and pre-determined construction pressure drop warning standards of the target fracturing well, the risk level of the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing section is determined; the construction pressure drop warning standards are determined based on the construction pressure data of the already fractured wells;

[0050] The third determination module is used to determine the probability of natural fracture / fault slip based on the risk level of real-time microseismic event points in the target fracturing well, the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points, and the risk level of real-time fracturing section construction pressure.

[0051] Early warning module: Based on the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage and the location relationship between the microseismic event points of the target fracturing well and the wellbore, it issues early warning reminders of casing deformation.

[0052] Thirdly, embodiments of the present invention provide a computer storage medium storing computer-executable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the aforementioned shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning method.

[0053] Fourthly, embodiments of the present invention provide a computer device, including: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the program to implement the above-mentioned shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning method.

[0054] The beneficial effects of the above-described technical solutions provided in the embodiments of the present invention include at least the following:

[0055] The shale gas casing deformation early warning method provided in this invention, based on the characteristics of microseismic event points and fracturing pressure during hydraulic fracturing when natural fractures / faults are activated, classifies the microseismic and pressure data of the target fracturing well into multiple risk levels according to the microseismic and pressure data of already fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs. Then, based on the risk level of real-time microseismic event points and pressure during the construction process of the target fracturing well, combined with the spatial distribution characteristics of the microseismic event points, the method determines the real-time risk level of the target fracturing well. The probability of natural fracture / fault slippage during fracturing is calculated, and casing deformation is predicted based on the relationship between microseismic event points and wellbore location during fracturing. The casing deformation prediction method provided in this embodiment combines geological data and fracturing detection data characteristics prior to natural fracture / fault slippage. It establishes a casing deformation prediction method based on microseismic data and fracturing operation curves. This method combines multiple data sources to determine casing deformation, effectively predicting casing deformation to reduce its probability, with higher accuracy and reliability.

[0056] Other features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the description which follows, and will be apparent in part from the description, or may be learned by practicing the invention.

[0057] The technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. Attached Figure Description

[0058] The accompanying drawings are provided to further illustrate the invention and form part of the specification. They are used in conjunction with embodiments of the invention to explain the invention and do not constitute a limitation thereof. In the drawings:

[0059] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating the shale gas casing deformation early warning method in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0060] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the normal distribution of moment magnitude corresponding to microseismic event points in the fractured well section in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0061] Figure 3This is a schematic diagram of the normal distribution of b-values ​​corresponding to microseismic event points in the fractured well section in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0062] Figure 4 This is a flowchart illustrating a shale gas casing deformation early warning method according to another embodiment of the present invention;

[0063] Figure 5 This is an example diagram of the pressure construction curve of a well in the Luzhou block in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0064] Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in a well in the Luzhou block according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0065] Figure 7 This is a schematic diagram of the shale gas casing deformation early warning device in an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0066] Exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure will now be described in more detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. While exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure are shown in the drawings, it should be understood that the present disclosure may be implemented in various forms and should not be limited to the embodiments set forth herein. Rather, these embodiments are provided so that this disclosure will be thorough and complete, and will fully convey the scope of the disclosure to those skilled in the art.

[0067] In previous studies, the inventors discovered that during hydraulic fracturing, when faults / natural fractures are activated, the microseismic and fracturing operation curves exhibit the following characteristics: 1) Spatially, microseismic event points are asymmetrical with the wellbore, with 60%–70% overlap of microseismic event points in different fracturing sections, showing a linear distribution; 2) In terms of time and magnitude, numerous large-moment magnitude events occur during fracturing, and these events occur more frequently in the middle and later stages of fracturing; 3) The b-value of microseismic events is close to 1; 4) The fracturing operation pressure is 5–15 MPa lower than that of the normal fracturing section. In this embodiment of the invention, "fault / natural fracture" refers to a fault or natural fracture.

[0068] To address the problems existing in the prior art, this invention provides a method and device for early warning of shale oil and gas casing deformation. In this invention, the fractured well refers to the fractured well in the block to which the target fractured well belongs, and the fractured well section and the real-time fractured well section refer to the well section of the target fractured well.

[0069] Reference Figure 1 As shown, the shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning method provided in this embodiment of the invention includes:

[0070] Step S101: Determine the risk level of the microseismic event points in the real-time fractured section of the target fracturing well based on the microseismic event point data of the target fracturing well and the pre-determined risk level standard for microseismic event points; the risk level standard for microseismic event points is determined based on the microseismic data of the fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs;

[0071] Step S102: Determine the real-time construction pressure risk level of the fractured well section based on the construction pressure data, construction displacement data, and the pre-determined construction pressure drop warning standard of the target fractured well; the construction pressure drop warning standard is determined based on the construction pressure data of the fractured wells.

[0072] Step S103: Determine the probability of natural fracture / fault slip based on the risk level of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured section of the target fracturing well, the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points, and the construction pressure risk level of the real-time fractured well section.

[0073] Step S104: Based on the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage and the location relationship between the microseismic event points of the real-time fractured well section and the wellbore, issue an early warning reminder of casing deformation.

[0074] It should be noted that there is no requirement for the order of steps S101 and S102. That is, in practical applications, step S101 can be performed first, or step S102 can be performed first. This embodiment of the invention does not make any specific limitation in this regard.

[0075] The shale gas casing deformation early warning method provided in this invention, based on the characteristics of microseismic event points and fracturing pressure during hydraulic fracturing when natural fractures / faults are activated, classifies the microseismic and pressure data of the target fracturing well into multiple risk levels according to the microseismic and pressure data of already fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs. Based on the risk level of real-time microseismic event points and pressure during the construction process of the target fracturing well, combined with the spatial distribution characteristics of the microseismic event points, the method determines the risk of natural fractures during the real-time fracturing process of the target fracturing well. The invention provides a casing deformation early warning method that combines geological data and fracturing detection data characteristics before natural fracture / fault slippage. This method, based on microseismic data and fracturing operation curves, effectively predicts casing deformation by incorporating multiple data points to reduce the probability of deformation. It offers higher accuracy and reliability, providing a solution for shale gas casing deformation problems.

[0076] The casing early warning method provided in this embodiment of the invention further includes, before step S101:

[0077] Acquire microseismic data and construction pressure data of fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs;

[0078] The risk level standard for microseismic event points of the target fracturing well is determined based on the microseismic data of the already fractured wells;

[0079] Determine the pressure drop warning standard for the target fracturing well based on the construction pressure data of the already fractured well.

[0080] Specifically, the risk level criteria for microseismic event points of target fracturing wells are determined based on the microseismic data of already fractured wells, including:

[0081] Microseismic event point data of hydraulic fracture morphology and microseismic event point data of natural fracture zones were selected from the microseismic data of fractured wells.

[0082] Normal distribution analysis was performed on the moment magnitude and b-value corresponding to microseismic event point data of hydraulic fracture morphology and microseismic event point data of natural fracture zone, respectively. Based on the normal distribution, the risk level standard of microseismic event point was determined. The risk level standard of microseismic event point includes the risk level standard of moment magnitude and the risk level standard of b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point.

[0083] Furthermore, the moment magnitude risk level standard corresponding to the microseismic event point is determined based on the normal distribution of the moment magnitude data corresponding to the hydraulic fracture morphology of the fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs and the natural fracture zone. Based on the above-mentioned normal distribution of moment magnitude, moment magnitude data within a preset numerical range are selected as the calculation results, and the graded values ​​of the moment magnitude risk level standard are extracted. The moment magnitude is divided into three risk levels: low, medium, and high, based on the graded values. The preset numerical range of moment magnitude can be 50-70% of the values ​​in the moment magnitude data corresponding to the microseismic event points of hydraulic fracture morphology or natural fracture zone.

[0084] As the moment magnitude increases, the likelihood of natural fractures / faults being activated also increases. Therefore, the moment magnitude values ​​corresponding to microseismic event points in natural fracture zones within a preset range are selected as the first-level values ​​for high-risk moment magnitude. Similarly, the moment magnitude values ​​corresponding to microseismic event points with hydraulic fracture morphology within a preset range are selected as the second-level values ​​for low-risk moment magnitude. It should be noted that when making these selections, the range of moment magnitude data for microseismic event points in natural fracture zones is the range along the direction of gradually decreasing moment magnitude, while the range of moment magnitude data for microseismic event points with hydraulic fracture morphology is the range along the direction of gradually increasing moment magnitude.

[0085] Specifically, the range of moment magnitudes not less than the first grade value is selected as the range of moment magnitudes corresponding to the high-risk level; the range of moment magnitudes not greater than the second grade value is selected as the range of moment magnitudes corresponding to the low-risk level; and the range of moment magnitudes between the first grade value and the second grade value is selected as the range of moment magnitudes corresponding to the medium-risk level.

[0086] Similarly, the risk level standard for the b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point of the target fractured well is determined based on the b-value data corresponding to the hydraulic fracture morphology and natural fracture zone of the fractured well. This b-value is divided into three risk levels: low, medium, and high. Since the closer the b-value is to 1, the greater the possibility of activation of the natural fracture / fault, the b-value data corresponding to the microseismic event point of the natural fracture zone within a preset range is selected as the third level value corresponding to the high risk level. The b-value data corresponding to the microseismic event point of the hydraulic fracture morphology within a preset range is selected as the fourth level value corresponding to the low risk level. It should be noted that when making the selection, the numerical range of the b-value data corresponding to the microseismic event point of the natural fracture zone is the numerical range along the direction of gradually increasing b-value, and the numerical range of the b-value data corresponding to the microseismic event point of the hydraulic fracture morphology is the numerical range along the direction of gradually decreasing b-value.

[0087] Specifically, the range of b-values ​​not greater than the value of the third level is selected as the range of b-values ​​corresponding to the high-risk level; the range of b-values ​​not less than the value of the fourth level is selected as the range of b-values ​​corresponding to the low-risk level; and the range of b-values ​​between the value of the third level and the value of the fourth level is selected as the range of b-values ​​corresponding to the medium-risk level.

[0088] The calculation process for the moment magnitude risk level standard and b-value risk level standard corresponding to microseismic event points is illustrated below:

[0089] The moment magnitude data corresponding to microseismic event points in natural fracture zones were summarized, yielding a mean moment magnitude of -0.34 and a standard deviation of 0.50. The normal distribution of these moment magnitudes is shown in the figure below. Figure 2 As shown in curve 1, 60% of the moment magnitudes corresponding to microseismic event points in natural fracture zones were taken as the calculation results, which are (-0.46, 1.7). The moment magnitude data corresponding to microseismic event points with hydraulic fracture morphology were summarized, and their average value was -1.42, with a standard deviation of 0.52. Their normal distribution is shown in [reference needed]. Figure 2 As shown in curve 2, 60% of the moment magnitudes corresponding to microseismic event points with hydraulic fracture morphology were used as the calculation results, which are (-1.56, -1.30). The b-values ​​corresponding to microseismic event points with natural fracture zones were summarized, yielding a mean of 0.95 and a standard deviation of 0.275. Their normal distribution is shown in [reference needed]. Figure 3 As shown in curve 3, taking 60% of the values, the calculated result is (0.88, 1.02). Summarizing the b-value data corresponding to the microseismic event points of hydraulic fracture morphology, the average value is 1.22, and the standard deviation is 0.39. Its normal distribution is shown in [reference needed]. Figure 3 As shown in curve 4, taking 60% of its value, the calculation result is (1.11, 1.32).

[0090] At this point, based on the risk level classification criteria of the moment magnitude and b-value of the microseismic event point at the target fracturing well, the high-risk level of the classified moment magnitude (Mw) corresponds to M. w A magnitude of -0.46 or higher corresponds to a moderate risk of moment magnitude of -1.3 < M. w <-0.46, low risk of moment magnitude corresponds to M w ≤-1.3. Similarly, the b value can also be divided into 3 levels: high risk corresponds to b value ≤1.02, medium risk corresponds to 1.02 < b value <1.11, and low risk corresponds to b value ≥1.11.

[0091] In this embodiment of the invention, based on the construction pressure data of the fractured well, the construction pressure drop warning standard for the target fractured well is determined, including:

[0092] Obtain the pressure drop value of the fractured well connected to the natural fracture / fault, and use this pressure drop value as the pressure drop classification warning value for the construction pressure of the target fractured well. Determine the pressure drop warning standard for the construction pressure of the target fractured well based on the pressure drop classification warning value.

[0093] Specifically, based on the pressure drop classification warning value, the pressure drop value of the target fracturing well is divided into a high pressure drop warning level and a low pressure drop warning level. That is, the pressure drop value not less than the pressure drop classification warning value is classified as the pressure drop value corresponding to the high pressure drop warning level, and the pressure drop value less than the pressure drop classification warning value is classified as the pressure drop value corresponding to the low pressure drop warning level. The specific value of the pressure drop classification warning value can be selected by those skilled in the art according to the actual application. This embodiment of the invention does not specifically limit this. For example, under normal circumstances, the pressure drop value of a fracturing well connecting a natural fracture / fault is 5MPa to 15MPa. Therefore, 5MPa can be selected as the pressure drop classification warning value. The construction pressure with a pressure drop value greater than or equal to 5MPa is classified as the construction pressure pressure drop high warning level, and the construction pressure with a pressure drop value less than 5MPa is classified as the construction pressure pressure drop low warning level.

[0094] Optionally, the aforementioned exemplary description of high, medium, and low levels based on block moment magnitude, b-value, and pressure drop value corresponds to three levels: "red," "yellow," and "green," respectively. The warning level classification table is shown in Table 1:

[0095] Table 1. Classification of Early Warning Levels

[0096]

[0097] The graded early warning standard established in this embodiment of the invention is based on whether natural fractures / faults slide, providing a basis for early warning of fracturing operations in target fracturing wells.

[0098] The early warning method provided in this embodiment of the invention, in step S101, determines the risk level of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured section of the target fracturing well based on the microseismic event point data of the target fracturing well and the pre-established risk level standard for microseismic event points; including:

[0099] Acquire real-time microseismic event point data of the target fracturing well, and obtain the moment magnitude and b value corresponding to the real-time microseismic event point of the target fracturing well based on the real-time microseismic event point data;

[0100] Based on the moment magnitude, b-value, and the range of b-value and moment magnitude corresponding to each risk level in the risk level standard for microseismic event points, the risk level of the microseismic event points in the real-time fracturing section of the target fracturing well is determined.

[0101] Furthermore, based on the moment magnitude and b-value corresponding to the real-time microseismic event points, and the range of b-values ​​and moment magnitudes corresponding to each risk level in the microseismic event point risk level standard, the risk level of the microseismic event points in the real-time fracturing section of the target fracturing well is determined, including:

[0102] If the moment magnitude corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of the moment magnitude corresponding to the high-risk level in the moment magnitude risk level standard, and / or the b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of the b-value corresponding to the high-risk level in the b-value risk level standard, then the microseismic event point is judged to be at a high-risk level.

[0103] If the moment magnitude corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of moment magnitude corresponding to the low-risk level in the moment magnitude risk level standard, and the b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of b-value corresponding to the low-risk level in the b-value risk level standard, then the microseismic event point is judged to be at the low-risk level.

[0104] Otherwise, the microseismic event point is judged to be at a medium risk level.

[0105] In determining the risk level of real-time microseismic event points at target fracturing wells, the risk level of the corresponding moment magnitude and b-value must first be assessed. If the moment magnitude and / or b-value are both at a high risk level, the microseismic event point is classified as high risk. If both the moment magnitude and b-value are at a low risk level, the microseismic event point is classified as low risk. Otherwise, the microseismic event point is classified as medium risk.

[0106] In step S102, the risk level of the real-time fracturing pressure in the fractured well section is determined based on the construction pressure data, construction displacement data, and pre-established construction pressure drop early warning standards of the target fracturing well; including:

[0107] The pressure drop and displacement changes of the real-time fracturing well section are obtained based on the construction curve data of the already fracturing well section and the real-time fracturing well section.

[0108] Based on the range of the construction pressure drop warning standard that the real-time fracturing well section falls into and the change in construction discharge rate, the risk level of the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section is determined.

[0109] Furthermore, based on the range of the construction pressure drop warning standard that the real-time fracturing well section falls within, and the change in construction discharge rate, the risk level of the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section is determined; including:

[0110] If the change in the construction discharge rate between the real-time fracturing section and the already fracturing section of the target fracturing well is not greater than the preset threshold for the change in construction discharge rate, and the construction pressure drop value is not less than the pressure drop warning value, then the construction pressure is judged to be at a high-risk level.

[0111] If the change in the construction discharge rate between the real-time fracturing section and the already fracturing section of the target fracturing well exceeds the preset threshold for the change in construction discharge rate, and the construction pressure drop value is greater than the pressure drop warning value, then the construction pressure is judged to be at a medium risk level.

[0112] Otherwise, the construction pressure is judged to be at a low-risk level.

[0113] During on-site fracturing operations, changes in the pumping rate will also cause changes in the pumping pressure to some extent. Therefore, when assessing the risk level of the pumping pressure, it is necessary to consider the pumping rate in conjunction with the pumping rate. During hydraulic fracturing, it is necessary to process the on-site fracturing operation curve data in real time. According to the fracturing sequence, the pumping curve data of all fracturing sections of the target fracturing well and the real-time fracturing sections are integrated together to observe the overall trend of the fracturing operation curve. The fracturing operation curve data of the target fracturing well includes: the pumping pressure data and the pumping rate data of the target fracturing well.

[0114] The specific threshold value for the change in construction discharge volume can be selected according to actual needs in this embodiment of the invention, such as 2m. 3 / min, that is, when judging the risk level of construction pressure: if the variation range of the current construction discharge rate and the discharge rate of the fractured well section remains within 2m 3 If the pressure drop is within a certain range (e.g., within a certain timeframe), and the pressure drop during construction is greater than or equal to the pressure drop classification warning value, then the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing section of the target fracturing well is determined to be at a high-risk level.

[0115] If the variation range of the current construction discharge rate and the discharge rate of the fractured well section is greater than 2m 3 If the pressure drop is greater than or equal to the pressure drop warning value, the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing section of the target fracturing well is determined to be at a medium-risk level; if the pressure drop is less than the pressure drop warning value, the construction pressure is determined to be at a low-risk level. It should be noted that the fracturing section here refers to the already fracturing section of the target fracturing well, and the current construction displacement refers to the construction displacement of the real-time fracturing section of the target fracturing well.

[0116] In step S103, the probability of natural fracture / fault slip is determined based on the risk level of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured section of the target fracturing well, the spatial distribution characteristics of the microseismic event points, and the risk level of the construction pressure in the real-time fractured well section; including:

[0117] If the microseismic event points of the real-time fractured well section are at the preset microseismic event point risk level, then the natural fracture / fault is determined to meet the first activation condition.

[0118] If the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section is at the preset construction pressure risk level, then the natural fracture / fault is judged to meet the second activation condition.

[0119] Determine whether the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured well section meet the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points under the activated state of natural fractures / faults; if so, determine whether the natural fractures / faults meet the third activation condition.

[0120] If a natural fracture / fault satisfies the first activation condition, the second activation condition, and the third activation condition, or satisfies the second activation condition and the third activation condition, then the natural fracture / fault is judged to be in a high slip probability state.

[0121] If a natural fracture / fault satisfies one of the first activation condition, the second activation condition, or the third activation condition, then the natural fracture / fault is determined to be in the intermediate slip probability.

[0122] Otherwise, the natural fracture / fault is judged to be in a low slip probability.

[0123] It should be noted that the preset ratio here refers to the highest proportion, and the preset risk level of microseismic event points refers to the medium or high risk level of microseismic event points; that is, if the risk level of the microseismic event points with the most microseismic event points in the real-time fracturing section of the target fracturing well is medium or high risk, then the natural fracture / fault is judged to meet the first activation condition, that is, the natural fracture / fault may be activated.

[0124] The preset construction pressure risk level can be either medium or high risk level of the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section. That is, if the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section is at a medium or high risk level, it can be determined that the natural fracture / fault has been activated.

[0125] The determination of whether the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured well section meet the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in the state of activated natural fractures / faults includes: determining whether the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured well section meet the following conditions:

[0126] 1) The microseismic event points are asymmetrical with respect to the wellbore;

[0127] 2) 60% to 70% of the microseismic event points overlap in different fracturing sections of the target fracturing well, and they exhibit a linear distribution;

[0128] 3) During the fracturing process, the moment magnitude of microseismic event points within the preset range is a large matrix level event, and the frequency of large moment magnitude event points appearing in the middle and late stages of fracturing is higher than the preset frequency threshold; large matrix level events are microseismic events with a moment magnitude exceeding 0.

[0129] The specific values ​​for the preset range and preset frequency threshold can be set according to the needs of the site. For example, the preset range can be more than 50% of the microseismic event points. This embodiment of the invention does not make specific limitations on this.

[0130] Furthermore, in step S104, based on the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage and the location relationship between the target fractured well's microseismic event point and the wellbore, an early warning of casing deformation is issued, including:

[0131] If the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage is within the preset slippage probability, and the distance between the microseismic event point and the wellbore gradually decreases as the fracturing operation progresses, an early warning of casing deformation will be issued.

[0132] The preset slip probability is medium- to high-risk slip probability; that is, if the microseismic event point is continuously approaching the wellbore as the fracturing operation progresses, a casing deformation risk warning will be given, which will serve as an early warning; otherwise, real-time monitoring will continue.

[0133] The early warning method provided in this embodiment of the invention may further include: determining the correspondence between construction pressure and moment magnitude of microseismic event points when the time is consistent;

[0134] During the real-time processing of on-site microseismic monitoring data and fracturing operation curve data, the locations of microseismic event points are projected onto a 3D view including well trajectories and fracturing sections to enable morphological monitoring of event points in both fracturing and real-time fracturing sections. Based on temporal consistency, the real-time fracturing operation curve data and microseismic event point data are combined to determine the correspondence between the operation pressure and the moment magnitude of the microseismic event points at the same time. This is because, generally, during hydraulic fracturing, changes in operation pressure and the moment magnitude of microseismic event points correspond. If the changes are not correlated, it may be due to pressure drop changes caused by other factors or changes in the moment magnitude corresponding to the microseismic event point. In such cases, analysis can be performed based on the specific circumstances.

[0135] Regarding the casing deformation early warning method provided in the embodiments of the present invention, the inventors applied the method in wells X1, X2, X3 and X4 in a certain C1 well area during field tests. The test results are shown in Table 2.

[0136] Table 2 Summary of Field Test Results

[0137]

[0138]

[0139] As shown in Table 2, this method was used to issue 8 casing deformation warnings. A total of 6 warnings were issued for casing deformation, and 6 casing deformations actually occurred. 1 warning indicated that the casing was not deformed, and no deformation occurred. 1 casing deformation warning failed to be issued accurately. The warning success rate reached 87.5%, which improved the overall success rate and accuracy of casing deformation warnings.

[0140] In another alternative embodiment, refer to Figure 4 As shown, the casing deformation early warning method provided in this embodiment of the invention includes:

[0141] Import the basic data of the block to which the target fracturing well belongs, and determine the moment magnitude, b-value and construction pressure threshold of the block;

[0142] Import microseismic data and real-time data of the target fracturing well;

[0143] The process involves processing microseismic data and fracturing operation data from the real-time data of the fracturing operation section of the target fracturing well. Processing the microseismic data includes determining whether the moment magnitude and b-value exceed safety thresholds, and whether microseismic event points meet the spatial distribution characteristics of natural fractures / fault slip. Processing the fracturing operation data includes determining whether the operation pressure meets the characteristics of the operation curve.

[0144] The probability of slippage of natural fractures / faults is determined based on the processing results of microseismic data and fracturing operation data; based on the slippage probability of natural fractures / faults and the judgment of whether microseismic event points are continuously approaching the wellbore, further risk warnings for casing deformation are issued.

[0145] Based on the casing deformation early warning method provided in this embodiment of the invention, monitoring and early warning were conducted on a well in the Luzhou block. (Refer to...) Figure 5 As shown, in sections 9-11 of the target fracturing well, a decrease in construction pressure was observed, while referring to... Figure 6 As shown, the microseismic activity in segment 9 exhibited crack activation characteristics and approached the wellbore. Considering all factors, a high-risk warning for casing deformation was issued for segments 9-11. In reality, casing deformation occurred in segment 10, further validating the accuracy of the warning.

[0146] The shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning method and device provided in this invention, based on the characteristics of microseismic and fracturing operation curves under fault / natural fracture activation conditions, classifies the numerical characteristics of moment magnitude, b-value, and fracturing operation pressure of microseismic events induced by hydraulic fracturing operation into "red, yellow, and green" categories, where red represents high risk, yellow represents medium risk, and green represents low risk. In other words, the moment magnitude, b-value, and fracturing operation pressure data corresponding to microseismic event point data are divided into different risk levels, and combined with microseismic characteristic analysis and fracturing operation curve characteristic analysis, to achieve the purpose of casing deformation early warning.

[0147] Based on the same inventive concept, embodiments of the present invention also provide a shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning device, referring to... Figure 7 As shown, this invention provides a shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning device, comprising:

[0148] First determining module S31: Determines the risk level of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured section of the target fracturing well based on the microseismic event point data of the target fracturing well and the pre-determined risk level standard for microseismic event points; the risk level standard for microseismic event points is determined based on the microseismic data of fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs;

[0149] The second determining module S32: determines the risk level of the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing section based on the construction pressure data, construction displacement data, and a pre-determined construction pressure drop warning standard of the target fracturing well; the construction pressure drop warning standard is determined based on the construction pressure data of the already fractured well.

[0150] The third determination module S33 is used to determine the probability of natural fracture / fault slip based on the risk level of real-time microseismic event points in the target fracturing well, the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points, and the risk level of real-time fracturing section construction pressure.

[0151] Early warning module S34: Based on the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage and the location relationship between the microseismic event point of the target fracturing well and the wellbore, it issues an early warning reminder of casing deformation.

[0152] Thirdly, embodiments of the present invention also provide a computer storage medium storing computer-executable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the aforementioned shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning method.

[0153] Fourthly, embodiments of the present invention also provide a computer device, including: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the program to implement the above-mentioned shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning method.

[0154] Regarding the apparatus in the above embodiments, the specific manner in which each module performs its operation has been described in detail in the embodiments related to the method, and will not be elaborated upon here.

[0155] It should be understood that the specific order or hierarchy of steps in the disclosed process is an example of an exemplary method. Based on design preferences, it should be understood that the specific order or hierarchy of steps in the process may be rearranged without departing from the scope of this disclosure. The appended method claims provide elements of various steps in an exemplary order and are not intended to limit the scope to the specific order or hierarchy described.

[0156] In the detailed description above, various features are combined together in a single embodiment to simplify this disclosure. This approach to disclosure should not be construed as reflecting an intention that embodiments of the claimed subject matter require more features than are explicitly stated in each claim. Rather, as reflected in the appended claims, the invention is presented with fewer features than all of the features in a single disclosed embodiment. Therefore, the appended claims are hereby explicitly incorporated into the detailed description, with each claim representing a separate preferred embodiment of the invention.

[0157] The foregoing description includes examples of one or more embodiments. It is certainly impossible to describe all possible combinations of components or methods in order to describe the above embodiments, but those skilled in the art will recognize that further combinations and arrangements of the various embodiments are possible. Therefore, the embodiments described herein are intended to cover all such changes, modifications, and variations that fall within the scope of the appended claims. Furthermore, the term "comprising" as used in the specification or claims is interpreted in a manner similar to the term "including," as interpreted when used as a conjunction in the claims. Additionally, the use of any term "or" in the specification of the claims is intended to mean "non-exclusive or."

Claims

1. A method for early warning of deformation in shale oil and gas casing, characterized in that, include: The risk level of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured section of the target fracturing well is determined based on the microseismic event point data of the target fracturing well and the pre-determined risk level standard for microseismic event points; the risk level standard for microseismic event points is determined based on the microseismic data of fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs. Based on the construction pressure data, construction displacement data, and pre-determined construction pressure drop warning standards of the target fracturing well, the construction pressure risk level of the real-time fracturing section is determined; the construction pressure drop warning standards are determined based on the construction pressure data of the already fractured wells. If the microseismic event points of the real-time fractured well section are at a preset proportion of the preset microseismic event point risk level, then the natural fracture / fault is determined to meet the first activation condition. If the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section is at the preset construction pressure risk level, then it is determined that the natural fracture / fault meets the second activation condition. Determine whether the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured well section meet the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points under the activated state of natural fractures / faults; If so, then the natural fracture / fault is deemed to meet the third activation condition; If a natural fracture / fault satisfies the first activation condition, the second activation condition, and the third activation condition, or satisfies the second activation condition and the third activation condition, then the natural fracture / fault is judged to be in a high slip probability state. If a natural fracture / fault satisfies one of the first activation condition, the second activation condition, or the third activation condition, then the natural fracture / fault is determined to be in the intermediate slip probability. Otherwise, the natural fracture / fault is judged to be in a low slip probability. Based on the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage and the relationship between the microseismic event points of the real-time fractured well section and the wellbore location, an early warning of casing deformation is issued.

2. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Also includes: Acquire microseismic data and construction pressure data of fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs; The risk level standard for microseismic event points of the target fracturing well is determined based on the microseismic data of the already fractured wells; The pressure drop warning standard for the target fracturing well is determined based on the construction pressure data of the already fractured well.

3. The method as described in claim 2, characterized in that, Based on the microseismic data of the fractured wells, the risk level criteria for microseismic event points of the target fractured wells are determined, including: Microseismic event point data of hydraulic fracture morphology and microseismic event point data of natural fracture zones were selected from the microseismic data of the fractured wells. Normal distribution analysis was performed on the moment magnitude and b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point data of the hydraulic fracture morphology and the microseismic event point data of the natural fracture zone, respectively. The risk level standard of the microseismic event point was determined based on the normal distribution. The risk level standard of the microseismic event point includes: the risk level standard of the moment magnitude and the risk level standard of the b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point.

4. The method as described in claim 2, characterized in that, Based on the construction pressure data of the fractured wells, determine the early warning standard for construction pressure drop of the target fractured wells, including: Obtain the pressure drop value of the fractured well connected to the natural fracture / fault, use the pressure drop value as the pressure drop classification warning value of the target fractured well, and determine the pressure drop warning standard of the target fractured well based on the pressure drop classification warning value.

5. The method as described in claim 3, characterized in that, The risk level of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured section of the target fracturing well is determined based on microseismic event point data and pre-established risk level standards for microseismic event points; including: Acquire real-time microseismic event point data of the target fracturing well, and obtain the moment magnitude and b value corresponding to the real-time microseismic event point of the target fracturing well based on the real-time microseismic event point data; Based on the moment magnitude and b-value corresponding to the real-time microseismic event point, and the range of b-values ​​and moment magnitudes corresponding to each risk level in the risk level standard for microseismic event points, the risk level of the microseismic event point in the real-time fracturing section of the target fracturing well is determined.

6. The method as described in claim 5, characterized in that, Based on the moment magnitude and b-value corresponding to the real-time microseismic event points, and the range of b-values ​​and moment magnitudes corresponding to each risk level in the risk level standard for microseismic event points, the risk level of the microseismic event points in the real-time fracturing section of the target fracturing well is determined; including: If the moment magnitude corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of the moment magnitude corresponding to the high-risk level in the moment magnitude risk level standard, and / or the b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of the b-value corresponding to the high-risk level in the b-value risk level standard, then the microseismic event point is determined to be at a high-risk level. If the moment magnitude corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of moment magnitude corresponding to the low-risk level in the moment magnitude risk level standard, and the b-value corresponding to the microseismic event point in the real-time fractured well section is within the range of b-value corresponding to the low-risk level in the b-value risk level standard, then the microseismic event point is determined to be at a low-risk level. Otherwise, the microseismic event point is determined to be at a medium-risk level.

7. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The risk level of the real-time fracturing pressure in the target fracturing well section is determined based on the construction pressure data, construction displacement data, and pre-established construction pressure drop early warning standards; including: The pressure drop value and the change in discharge rate of the real-time fracturing well section are obtained based on the construction curve data of the already fracturing well section and the real-time fracturing well section of the target fracturing construction well. Based on the range of the construction pressure drop warning standard that the pressure drop value of the real-time fracturing well section falls into and the change in the construction discharge rate, the risk level of the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section is determined.

8. The method as described in claim 7, characterized in that, Based on the range of the construction pressure drop warning standard that the pressure drop value of the real-time fracturing well section falls within, and the change in construction discharge rate, the risk level of the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section is determined; including: If the change in the construction discharge rate between the real-time fracturing section and the already fracturing section of the target fracturing well is not greater than the preset threshold for the change in construction discharge rate, and the construction pressure drop is not less than the pressure drop warning value, then the construction pressure is judged to be at a high-risk level. If the change in the discharge rate between the real-time fracturing section and the already fracturing section of the target fracturing well exceeds the preset threshold for the change in discharge rate, and the pressure drop value is greater than the pressure drop warning value, then the construction pressure is judged to be at a medium risk level. Otherwise, the construction pressure is judged to be at a low-risk level.

9. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Determining whether the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured well section meet the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points under the activated state of natural fractures / faults includes: determining whether the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured well section meet the following conditions: 1) The microseismic event points are asymmetrical with respect to the wellbore; 2) 60% to 70% of the microseismic event points overlap in different fracturing sections of the target fracturing well, and they exhibit a linear distribution; 3) During the fracturing process, the moment magnitude of microseismic event points within the preset range is a large matrix-level event, and the frequency of large moment magnitude event points appearing in the middle and late stages of fracturing is higher than the preset frequency threshold; the large matrix-level event is a microseismic event with a moment magnitude exceeding 0.

10. The method according to any one of claims 1-9, characterized in that, Based on the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage and the location relationship between the microseismic event point of the target fracturing well and the wellbore, an early warning of casing deformation is issued, including: If the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage is within the preset slippage probability, and the distance between the microseismic event point and the wellbore gradually decreases as the fracturing operation progresses, an early warning of casing deformation will be issued.

11. A shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning device, characterized in that, include: The first determination module: Based on the microseismic event point data of the target fracturing well and the pre-determined risk level standard for microseismic event points, determine the risk level of the microseismic event points in the real-time fracturing section of the target fracturing well; The risk level standard for the microseismic event point is determined based on the microseismic data of the fractured wells in the block to which the target fracturing well belongs; The second determining module: Based on the construction pressure data, construction displacement data, and pre-determined construction pressure drop warning standards of the target fracturing well, the risk level of the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing section is determined; the construction pressure drop warning standards are determined based on the construction pressure data of the already fractured wells; The third determination module is used to determine whether the natural fracture / fault meets the first activation condition when the microseismic event points of the preset proportion of the real-time fractured well section are at the preset microseismic event point risk level. When the construction pressure of the real-time fracturing well section is at a preset construction pressure risk level, it is determined that the natural fracture / fault meets the second activation condition. Determine whether the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points in the real-time fractured well section meet the spatial distribution characteristics of microseismic event points under the activated state of natural fractures / faults; If so, then the natural fracture / fault is deemed to meet the third activation condition; If a natural fracture / fault satisfies the first activation condition, the second activation condition, and the third activation condition, or satisfies the second activation condition and the third activation condition, the natural fracture / fault is determined to be in a high slip probability state. If a natural fracture / fault satisfies one of the first activation condition, the second activation condition, or the third activation condition, then the natural fracture / fault is determined to be in the intermediate slip probability. Otherwise, the natural fracture / fault is judged to be in a low slip probability. Early warning module: Based on the probability of natural fracture / fault slippage and the location relationship between the microseismic event points of the target fracturing well and the wellbore, it issues early warning reminders of casing deformation.

12. A computer storage medium, characterized in that, The computer storage medium stores computer-executable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning method according to any one of claims 1-10.

13. A computer device, characterized in that, include: A memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor, when executing the program, implements the shale oil and gas casing deformation early warning method according to any one of claims 1-10.

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