Method, device and system for identifying influence of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics

Abstract

The invention discloses a method, device and system for identifying the influence of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transfer characteristics, and the method comprises the steps: simulating a hydrological process of a research region without the influence of human activities based on a calibrated hydrological model, obtaining runoff data without the influence of human activities, and calculating a first hydrological drought index sequence; calculating a meteorological drought index sequence and a second hydrological drought index sequence under the influence of human activities based on the meteorological observation data and the hydrological observation data; identifying drought events and features thereof based on the meteorological drought index sequence, the first hydrological drought index sequence and the second hydrological drought index sequence, and calculating drought transmission features of the weather drought events to the hydrological drought events under the circumstances of human activity influence and no human activity influence; and comparing the drought transmission characteristics under the two scenes to obtain the influence of human activities on the drought transmission characteristics. According to the method, the influence degree of human activities on the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission process can be obtained, and reference can be provided for reasonable allocation of water resources.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of drought identification and hydrology and water resources application, and specifically relates to a method, device and system for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics. Background Art

[0002] Drought is a natural disaster with great impact. The duration and intensity of drought events are affected by multiple factors such as climate change and human activities, and are showing an increasingly severe trend. China is a region that has suffered from drought disasters for a long time. Drought not only leads to water shortages, reduced crop yields, and serious regional economic losses, but also may lead to ecosystem problems such as water quality deterioration, land degradation, and changes in ecological community structure.

[0003] There is a certain connection between different types of drought. At present, most of the research on drought transmission is based on the correlation between different types of drought indices and the joint distribution of drought characteristics to determine the lag time between different drought types and the correlation of drought characteristics. However, under the combined influence of climate change and human activities, the process of transmission from meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events is seriously affected. Only considering the drought transmission characteristics under the current situation fails to provide a scientific reference for the rational use of water resources. Based on the above analysis, how to quantitatively analyze the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics is still a difficult problem faced by current drought transmission research. Summary of the invention

[0004] In response to the above problems, the present invention proposes a method, device and system for identifying the impact of human activities on the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics, which can obtain the degree of influence of human activities on the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission process, provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources, and facilitate the efficient utilization and management of water resources in the basin.

[0005] In order to achieve the above technical objectives and the above technical effects, the present invention is implemented through the following technical solutions:

[0006] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics, comprising:

[0007] Based on the calibrated hydrological model, the hydrological process of the study area without the influence of human activities is simulated to obtain the runoff data of the study area without the influence of human activities, and the first hydrological drought index sequence is calculated based on the runoff data;

[0008] Based on meteorological observation data and hydrological observation data, the meteorological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series under the influence of human activities in the study area are calculated;

[0009] Based on the meteorological drought index sequence, the first hydrological drought index sequence and the second hydrological drought index sequence, drought events and their characteristics are identified, and drought transfer characteristics from meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events are calculated under scenarios with and without human activity impacts, respectively;

[0010] The drought transmission characteristics under the two scenarios are compared to obtain the impact of human activities on drought transmission characteristics.

[0011] In combination with the first aspect, optionally, the hydrological model includes a meteorological driving module, a surface module, a groundwater module, an irrigation module, a water use module and a confluence module; the meteorological driving module is used to receive and process meteorological observation data; the surface module is used to simulate the flow generation process of precipitation on the surface to form surface runoff; the groundwater module is used to simulate the storage and flow changes of groundwater; the irrigation module and the water use module are used to consider human water use data; the confluence module is used to simulate the situation where surface water converges into rivers and reservoirs;

[0012] The method for obtaining runoff data in the study area without the influence of human activities includes:

[0013] Turn off the irrigation module and the water use module in the hydrological model;

[0014] The acquired meteorological observation data and land use data are input into the calibrated hydrological model to obtain the runoff data in the study area without the influence of human activities.

[0015] In combination with the first aspect, optionally, the meteorological drought index is obtained by using a log-logistic distribution fitting method; and the first hydrological drought index and the second hydrological drought index are both obtained by using a gamma distribution fitting method.

[0016] In conjunction with the first aspect, optionally, a method for calculating drought transfer characteristics from a meteorological drought event to a hydrological drought event includes:

[0017] Based on the meteorological drought index series, the first hydrological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series, the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time under the influence of human activities is calculated. Meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time without human activities ;

[0018] The three-threshold run theory method is used to identify meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events under two scenarios for the meteorological drought index series, the first hydrological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series, and the drought duration, drought intensity and drought frequency of meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events are identified.

[0019] Match the identified meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events to find out the hydrological drought events caused by meteorological drought events.

[0020] In combination with the first aspect, optionally, the method for calculating drought transfer characteristics of a meteorological drought event to a hydrological drought event under a scenario with human activity impact includes:

[0021] Calculate the Spearman correlation coefficient between the meteorological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series;

[0022] Find the time scale of the meteorological drought index series corresponding to the maximum Spearman correlation coefficient as the transmission time of meteorological-hydrological drought under the influence of human activities ;

[0023] The three-threshold run theory method is used to identify meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events based on the meteorological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series, and the drought duration, drought intensity and drought frequency of meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events are identified;

[0024] If the drought lasts for 1 month and the corresponding drought index is less than the set second drought index threshold Remove the event when

[0025] If the interval between two drought events is only one month, and the drought index of the interval month is less than or equal to the first drought index threshold When the drought event is 1, the two drought events are merged into one drought event. The duration of the merged drought event is the sum of the duration of the two droughts plus one month, and the intensity is the sum of the intensities of the two droughts.

[0026] Match the identified meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events to find out the hydrological drought events caused by meteorological drought events. The matching rules are:

[0027] Trigger period = { [ ts i − T H ， te i ] , if ts i − te i − 1 ≥ T H [ te i − 1 , te i ] , if ts i − te i − 1 < T H

[0028] in, For the The time when the hydrological drought event started, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, is the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time under the influence of human activities; if the start time of a meteorological drought event is in If the trigger period of the hydrological drought is Meteorological drought events in response to hydrological drought;

[0029] based on The effective transmission rate of meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events under the scenario of human activities is calculated as the drought transmission characteristic, where: is the effective transmission rate under the scenario of human activities, is the number of meteorological drought events that trigger hydrological drought events under the scenario of human activities, It is the total number of meteorological drought events under the scenario of human activities.

[0030] In combination with the first aspect, optionally, the method for calculating drought transfer characteristics of a meteorological drought event to a hydrological drought event in a scenario without human activity impact includes:

[0031] The Spearman correlation coefficient is calculated for the meteorological drought index series and the first hydrological drought index series;

[0032] Find the time scale of the meteorological drought index series corresponding to the maximum Spearman correlation coefficient as the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time without the influence of human activities ;

[0033] The three-threshold run theory method is used to identify meteorological drought and hydrological drought events based on the first hydrological drought index sequence, and the drought duration, drought intensity and drought frequency of meteorological drought and hydrological drought are identified;

[0034] If the drought lasts for 1 month and the corresponding drought index is less than the set second drought index threshold Remove the event when

[0035] If the interval between two drought events is only one month, and the drought index of that month is less than or equal to the first drought index threshold When the drought event is 1, the two drought events are merged into one drought event. The duration of the merged drought event is the sum of the duration of the two droughts plus one month, and the intensity is the sum of the intensities of the two droughts.

[0036] Match the identified meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events to find out the hydrological drought events caused by meteorological drought. The matching rules are as follows:

[0037] Trigger period = { [ ts i − T N ， te i ] , if ts i − te i − 1 ≥ T N [ te i − 1 , te i ] , if ts i − te i − 1 < T N

[0038] in, For the The time when the hydrological drought event started, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, is the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time without the influence of human activities; if the start time of a meteorological drought event is in If the trigger period of the hydrological drought is Meteorological drought events in response to hydrological drought;

[0039] based on The effective transmission rate of meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events in the scenario without human activity impact is calculated as the drought transmission characteristic, where: is the effective transmission rate in the scenario without human activities, is the number of meteorological drought events that trigger hydrological drought events in the scenario without human activity impact, It is the total number of meteorological drought events in the scenario without the impact of human activities.

[0040] In combination with the first aspect, optionally, the impact of human activities on drought transmission characteristics includes the degree of impact of human activities on drought transmission time and the degree of impact of human activities on drought transmission probability.

[0041] In combination with the first aspect, optionally, the impact of human activities on drought transmission time is calculated using the following formula:

[0042]

[0043] The impact of human activities on the probability of drought transmission is calculated using the following formula:

[0044]

[0045] in, is the impact of human activities on the duration of drought, If it is greater than 0, it means that human activities have prolonged the time for meteorological drought to be transmitted to hydrological drought, and the larger the absolute value, the greater the impact; and They are respectively the drought transmission time under the influence of human activities and without the influence of human activities; Indicates the impact of human activities on the probability of drought transmission, is the probability of drought transmission under the influence of human activities, is the probability of drought transmission without the influence of human activities; When it is greater than 0, it means that human activities promote the transmission process of meteorological drought to hydrological drought; when When it is less than 0, it means that human activities hinder the transmission process of meteorological drought to hydrological drought. The larger the absolute value of , the greater the impact of human activities on drought transmission.

[0046] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a device for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics, comprising:

[0047] A first drought index sequence calculation module is used to simulate the hydrological process of the study area without the influence of human activities based on the calibrated hydrological model, obtain the runoff data of the study area without the influence of human activities, and calculate the first hydrological drought index sequence based on the runoff data;

[0048] The second drought index sequence calculation module is used to calculate the meteorological drought index sequence and the second hydrological drought index sequence under the influence of human activities in the study area based on the meteorological observation data and the hydrological observation data;

[0049] A drought transfer characteristic calculation module is used to identify drought events and their characteristics based on the meteorological drought index sequence, the first hydrological drought index sequence and the second hydrological drought index sequence, and calculate drought transfer characteristics of meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events under scenarios with and without human activity impact;

[0050] The impact identification module is used to compare the drought transfer characteristics under two scenarios and obtain the impact of human activities on drought transfer characteristics.

[0051] In a third aspect, the present invention provides a system for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transfer characteristics, including a storage medium and a processor;

[0052] The storage medium is used to store instructions;

[0053] The processor is configured to operate according to the instructions to execute the method according to any one of the first aspects.

[0054] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0055] The present invention provides a method, device and system for identifying the influence of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transfer characteristics. Based on a calibrated hydrological model, the hydrological process of a study area without the influence of human activities is simulated to obtain runoff data of the study area without the influence of human activities, and a first hydrological drought index sequence is calculated based on the runoff data; based on meteorological observation data and hydrological observation data, a meteorological drought index sequence and a second hydrological drought index sequence under the influence of human activities in the study area are calculated; based on the meteorological drought index sequence, the first hydrological drought index sequence and the second hydrological drought index sequence, drought events and their characteristics are identified, and drought transfer characteristics of meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events under the scenarios with and without the influence of human activities are calculated respectively; the drought transfer characteristics under the two scenarios are compared to obtain the influence of human activities on the drought transfer characteristics, and the influence of human activities on the drought transfer characteristics can be accurately identified and quantified, which not only improves the accuracy of drought assessment and early warning, but also provides a scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of water resources, helps to achieve sustainable utilization of water resources, and enhances the ability to respond to drought disasters. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0056] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments are briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative labor, among which:

[0057] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 2 A structural diagram of a PCR-GLOBWB model according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 3 This is a three-threshold run theory principle diagram of an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0060] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0061] In addition, if there are descriptions involving "first", "second", etc. in the embodiments of the present invention, the descriptions of "first", "second", etc. are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be understood as indicating or suggesting their relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of the indicated technical features. Therefore, the features defined as "first" and "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one of the features. In addition, the technical solutions between the various embodiments can be combined with each other, but they must be based on the ability of ordinary technicians in the field to implement them. When the combination of technical solutions is contradictory or cannot be implemented, it should be deemed that such a combination of technical solutions does not exist and is not within the scope of protection required by the present invention.

[0062] Example 1

[0063] The present invention provides a method for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics. Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0064] (1) Based on the calibrated hydrological model, the hydrological process of the study area without the influence of human activities is simulated to obtain the runoff data of the study area without the influence of human activities, and the first hydrological drought index sequence is calculated based on the runoff data; the first hydrological drought index sequence is Figure 1 SRI sequences without human activity in;

[0065] (2) Based on meteorological observation data and hydrological observation data, the meteorological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series under the influence of human activities in the study area are calculated; the second hydrological drought index series is Figure 1 There are SRI sequences of human activities in the;

[0066] (3) based on the meteorological drought index sequence, the first hydrological drought index sequence and the second hydrological drought index sequence, drought events and their characteristics are identified, and drought transfer characteristics from meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events are calculated under the scenarios with and without the impact of human activities;

[0067] (4) Compare the drought transmission characteristics under the two scenarios and obtain the impact of human activities on drought transmission characteristics.

[0068] In a specific implementation of the embodiment of the present invention, the calibrated hydrological model is obtained by the following steps:

[0069] The PCR-GLOBWB model that fully considers human activities is used as the hydrological model; the structure of the PCR-GLOBWB model is shown in Figure 2 As shown, the structure of the model is prior art, and its data processing process is also prior art;

[0070] Preprocess the collected meteorological observation data, hydrological observation data, human water use data, land use data, etc. to meet the needs of building the PCR-GLOBWB model;

[0071] The preprocessed data is input into the PCR-GLOBWB model to drive the PCR-GLOBWB model to simulate the hydrological process of the study area; this step requires the calibration and verification of the PCR-GLOBWB model parameters against the hydrological observation data, and the Nash coefficient and linear correlation coefficient are used to evaluate the parameters, and finally the values ​​of each parameter are determined, and the construction of the hydrological model is completed. Among them, the calibration process of the PCR-GLOBWB model parameters is to prepare the basic data so that the PCR-GLOBWB model can be driven normally, and then adjust the parameters of the PCR-GLOBWB model so that the runoff data simulated by the PCR-GLOBWB model is close to the measured data, so as to achieve a good simulation effect and obtain the best values ​​of each parameter. The verification process of the PCR-GLOBWB model parameters is based on the PCR-GLOBWB model after the calibration process (the best parameter values ​​are determined), and then a time period different from the calibration process is selected to simulate the hydrological process of the basin, and the runoff obtained in this verification process is compared with the measured runoff. The closer the two are, the better the effect of the PCR-GLOBWB model.

[0072] Among them, the Nash coefficient ( ) and the linear correlation coefficient ( ) is calculated as follows:

[0073]

[0074] R = ∑ [ ( Q sim − Q sim ¯ ) × ( Q obs − Q obs ¯ ) ] ∑ ( Q sim − Q sim ¯ ) 2 × ∑ ( Q obs − Q obs ¯ ) 2

[0075] In the formula, is the Nash coefficient, is the linear correlation coefficient; is the total number of time series (i.e., the time periods of the rate period and the validation period selected as needed), for time; and They are respectively The simulated flow and observed flow at time, and are the average values ​​of simulated flow and observed flow, respectively.

[0076] In a specific implementation of an embodiment of the present invention, the hydrological model includes a meteorological drive module, a surface module, a groundwater module, an irrigation module, a water use module and a confluence module; the meteorological drive module is used to receive and process meteorological observation data; the surface module is used to simulate the flow generation process of precipitation on the surface to form surface runoff; the groundwater module is used to simulate the storage and flow changes of groundwater; the irrigation module and water use module are used to consider human water use data; the confluence module is used to simulate the situation where surface water converges into rivers and reservoirs; the data processing processes performed by the meteorological drive module, surface module, groundwater module, irrigation module, water use module and confluence module are all prior arts, and no further elaboration is made in the present invention. The surface module refers to Figure 2 The soil upper layer, soil lower layer, ice and snow process and canopy layer in the water use module refers to Figure 2 Industrial water, domestic water and livestock water.

[0077] The method for obtaining runoff data in the study area without the influence of human activities includes:

[0078] Turn off the irrigation module and the water use module in the hydrological model;

[0079] The acquired meteorological observation data and land use data are input into the calibrated hydrological model to obtain the runoff data in the study area without the influence of human activities.

[0080] In a specific implementation of the embodiment of the present invention, in order to facilitate the calculation of the meteorological drought index, the first hydrological drought index and the second hydrological drought index, the meteorological drought index is obtained by using the log-logistic distribution fitting method; the first hydrological drought index and the second hydrological drought index are both obtained by using the gamma distribution fitting method. Specifically:

[0081] The calculation process of the meteorological drought index (Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) is as follows:

[0082] First, the Penman-Monteith method is used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration using data such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and humidity. , potential evapotranspiration The specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0083]

[0084] in, is the potential evapotranspiration (mm / d), is the net surface radiation (MJ m -2 d-1 ), is the soil heat flux (MJ m -2 d -1 ), is the daily average temperature at 2 meters height (℃), is the wind speed at 2 meters height (m / s), is the saturated water content (kPa), is the actual water vapor pressure (kPa), is the slope of the saturated water vapor pressure curve (KPa / ℃), is a meteorological constant (kPa / ℃).

[0085] The second step is to calculate the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, i.e. the water deficit :

[0086]

[0087] in, It is Monthly water deficit, It is Monthly precipitation (mm / d), It is The potential evaporation of the month. The cumulative water deficit needs to be calculated on a time scale of 1-12 months , which is used for subsequent meteorological drought event identification and calculation of meteorological-hydrological drought transfer time.

[0088] The third step is to fit the water deficit series data using the Log-logistic probability density function:

[0089] f ( x ) = β α ( x − γ α ) β − 1 [ 1 + ( x − γ α ) β ] − 2

[0090] In the formula, is the scale parameter, is the shape parameter, is the location parameter, which can be obtained by fitting the linear moment method, and the cumulative probability can be calculated by the distribution function:

[0091] F ( x ) = [ 1 + ( α x − γ ) β ] − 1

[0092] The fourth step is to transform the fitted water deficit series into a standard normal distribution and obtain the corresponding SPEI:

[0093] When 0 ≤0.5, let k = ln [ 1 F ( x ) 2 ] ,but

[0094]

[0095] When 0.5< ≤1, let k = ln 1 [ 1 − F ( x ) ] 2 ,but

[0096]

[0097] In the formula, , , , , , .

[0098] The Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) is the cumulative runoff sequence data within a given time period converted into a standard normal distribution through an equal probability transformation. The specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0099] Assume that the runoff sequence of a certain time scale is , then the gamma distribution probability density function is satisfied for:

[0100]

[0101] in, is the scale parameter, are shape parameters, all greater than 0, and the parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood estimation.

[0102] Then, yes Integrate to obtain the runoff sequence for a certain time scale The cumulative probability , and the cumulative probability The SRI sequence is obtained by normal standardization:

[0103] When 0< ≤0.5, let k = ln [ 1 F ( x ) 2 ] ,but

[0104]

[0105] When 0.5< ≤1, let k = ln 1 [ 1 − F ( x ) ] 2 ,but

[0106]

[0107] In the formula, , , , , , .

[0108] After drought index calculation, the SPEI series with a time scale of 1-12 months and the SRI series with a time scale of 1 month were obtained.

[0109] In a specific implementation of the embodiment of the present invention, a method for calculating drought transfer characteristics of a meteorological drought event to a hydrological drought event includes:

[0110] Based on the meteorological drought index series, the first hydrological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series, the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time under the influence of human activities is calculated. Meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time without human activities ;

[0111] The three-threshold run theory method is used to identify meteorological drought and hydrological drought events for the first hydrological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series. The drought duration, drought severity, and drought frequency of meteorological drought and hydrological drought are used as thresholds to identify them; see Figure 3 ;

[0112] Match the identified meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events to find out the hydrological drought events caused by meteorological drought events.

[0113] In a specific implementation of the embodiment of the present invention, the method for calculating the drought transfer characteristics of the meteorological drought event to the hydrological drought event under the scenario of human activity influence includes:

[0114] Calculate the Spearman correlation coefficient between the meteorological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series;

[0115] Find the time scale of the meteorological drought index series corresponding to the maximum Spearman correlation coefficient as the transmission time of meteorological-hydrological drought under the influence of human activities ;

[0116] The three-threshold run theory method is used to identify meteorological drought and hydrological drought events for the second hydrological drought index sequence, and R0 is used as the threshold to identify the drought duration, drought intensity, and drought frequency of meteorological drought and hydrological drought; see Figure 3 ;

[0117] If the drought lasts for 1 month and the corresponding drought index is less than the set second drought index threshold R2, the event is eliminated;

[0118] If the interval between two drought events is only one month, and the drought index of that month is less than or equal to the first drought index threshold R1, the two drought events are merged into one drought event. The duration of the merged drought event is the sum of the two drought durations plus one month, and the intensity is the sum of the two drought intensities.

[0119] Match the identified meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events to find out the hydrological drought events caused by meteorological drought. The matching rules are as follows:

[0120] Trigger period = { [ ts i − T H ， te i ] , if ts i − te i − 1 ≥ T H [ te i − 1 , te i ] , if ts i − te i − 1 < T H

[0121] in, For the The time when the hydrological drought event started, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, is the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time under the influence of human activities; if the start time of a meteorological drought event is in If the trigger period of the hydrological drought is Meteorological drought events in response to hydrological drought;

[0122] based on The effective transmission rate of meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events under the scenario of human activities is calculated as the drought transmission characteristic, where: is the effective transmission rate under the scenario of human activities, is the number of meteorological drought events that trigger hydrological drought events under the scenario of human activities, It is the total number of meteorological drought events under the scenario of human activities. The general value range of is 0 to 1. In the case of strong human activity intervention, The value of may exceed 1.

[0123] In a specific implementation of the embodiment of the present invention, the method for calculating the drought transfer characteristics of the meteorological drought event to the hydrological drought event in the scenario without human activity impact includes:

[0124] The Spearman correlation coefficient is calculated for the meteorological drought index series and the first hydrological drought index series;

[0125] Find the time scale of the meteorological drought index series corresponding to the maximum Spearman correlation coefficient as the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time without the influence of human activities ;

[0126] The three-threshold run theory method was used to identify meteorological drought and hydrological drought events based on the first hydrological drought index sequence, and R0 was used as the threshold to identify the drought duration, drought intensity, and drought frequency of meteorological drought and hydrological drought.

[0127] If the drought lasts for 1 month and the corresponding drought index is less than the set second drought index threshold R2, the event is eliminated;

[0128] If the interval between two drought events is only one month, and the drought index of that month is less than or equal to the first drought index threshold R1, the two drought events are merged into one drought event. The duration of the merged drought event is the sum of the two drought durations plus one month, and the intensity is the sum of the two drought intensities.

[0129] Match the identified meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events to find out the hydrological drought events caused by meteorological drought. The matching rules are as follows:

[0130] Trigger period = { [ ts i − T N ， te i ] , if ts i − te i − 1 ≥ T N [ te i − 1 , te i ] , if ts i − te i − 1 < T N

[0131] in, For the The time when the hydrological drought event started, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, is the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time without the influence of human activities; if the start time of a meteorological drought event is in If the trigger period of the hydrological drought is Meteorological drought events in response to hydrological drought;

[0132] based on The effective transmission rate of meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events in the scenario without human activity impact is calculated as the drought transmission characteristic, where: is the effective transmission rate in the scenario without human activities, is the number of meteorological drought events that trigger hydrological drought events in the scenario without human activity impact, It is the total number of meteorological drought events in the scenario without the impact of human activities. The general value range of is 0 to 1. In the case of strong human activity intervention, The value of may exceed 1.

[0133] Wherein, the calculation formula of the Spearman correlation coefficient is:

[0134]

[0135] in, is the meteorological drought index series, is the first hydrological drought index sequence or the second hydrological drought index sequence, , yes , The corresponding position, , yes , The correlation coefficient between the meteorological drought index series on a time scale of 1-12 months and the hydrological drought index series on a time scale of one month was calculated.

[0136] In a specific implementation of the embodiment of the present invention, the impact of human activities on drought transmission characteristics includes the impact degree of human activities on drought transmission time and the impact degree of human activities on drought transmission probability;

[0137] The impact of human activities on drought transmission time is calculated using the following formula:

[0138]

[0139] The impact of human activities on the probability of drought transmission is calculated using the following formula:

[0140]

[0141] in, is the impact of human activities on the duration of drought, If it is greater than 0, it means that human activities have prolonged the time for meteorological drought to be transmitted to hydrological drought, and the larger the absolute value, the greater the impact; and They are respectively the drought transmission time under the influence of human activities and without the influence of human activities; Indicates the impact of human activities on the probability of drought transmission, is the probability of drought transmission under the influence of human activities, is the probability of drought transmission without the influence of human activities; When it is greater than 0, it means that human activities promote the transmission process of meteorological drought to hydrological drought; when When it is less than 0, it means that human activities hinder the transmission process of meteorological drought to hydrological drought. The larger the absolute value of , the greater the impact of human activities on drought transmission.

[0142] Example 2

[0143] Based on the same inventive concept as that of Example 1, an apparatus for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics is provided in an embodiment of the present invention, comprising:

[0144] A first drought index sequence calculation module is used to simulate the hydrological process of the study area without the influence of human activities based on the calibrated hydrological model, obtain the runoff data of the study area without the influence of human activities, and calculate the first hydrological drought index sequence based on the runoff data;

[0145] The second drought index sequence calculation module is used to calculate the meteorological drought index sequence and the second hydrological drought index sequence under the influence of human activities in the study area based on the meteorological observation data and the hydrological observation data;

[0146] A drought transfer characteristic calculation module is used to identify drought events and their characteristics based on the meteorological drought index sequence, the first hydrological drought index sequence and the second hydrological drought index sequence, and calculate drought transfer characteristics of meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events under scenarios with and without human activity impact;

[0147] The impact identification module is used to compare the drought transfer characteristics under two scenarios and obtain the impact of human activities on drought transfer characteristics.

[0148] The rest are the same as in Example 1.

[0149] Example 3

[0150] An embodiment of the present invention provides a system for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transfer characteristics, including a storage medium and a processor;

[0151] The storage medium is used to store instructions;

[0152] The processor is configured to operate according to the instructions to execute the method according to any one of the embodiments 1.

[0153] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program codes.

[0154] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0155] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0156] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0157] The embodiments of the present invention are described above in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, but the present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned specific implementation methods. The above-mentioned specific implementation methods are merely illustrative and not restrictive. Under the enlightenment of the present invention, ordinary technicians in this field can also make many forms without departing from the scope of protection of the purpose of the present invention and the claims, which all fall within the protection of the present invention.

[0158] The above shows and describes the basic principles and main features of the present invention and the advantages of the present invention. It should be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. The above embodiments and descriptions are only for explaining the principles of the present invention. Without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, the present invention may have various changes and improvements, which fall within the scope of the present invention to be protected. The scope of protection of the present invention is defined by the attached claims and their equivalents.

Claims

1. A method for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics, characterized in that: include: Based on the calibrated hydrological model, the hydrological process of the study area without the influence of human activities is simulated to obtain the runoff data of the study area without the influence of human activities, and the first hydrological drought index sequence is calculated based on the runoff data; Based on meteorological observation data and hydrological observation data, the meteorological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series under the influence of human activities in the study area are calculated; Based on the meteorological drought index sequence, the first hydrological drought index sequence and the second hydrological drought index sequence, drought events and their characteristics are identified, and drought transfer characteristics from meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events are calculated under scenarios with and without human activity impacts, respectively; The drought transmission characteristics under the two scenarios are compared to obtain the impact of human activities on drought transmission characteristics.

2. The method for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics according to claim 1, characterized in that: The hydrological model includes a meteorological driving module, a surface module, a groundwater module, an irrigation module, a water use module and a confluence module; the meteorological driving module is used to receive and process meteorological observation data; the surface module is used to simulate the flow generation process of precipitation on the surface to form surface runoff; the groundwater module is used to simulate the storage and flow changes of groundwater; the irrigation module and the water use module are used to consider human water use data; The confluence module is used to simulate the situation where surface water converges into rivers and reservoirs; The method for obtaining runoff data in the study area without the influence of human activities includes: Turn off the irrigation module and the water use module in the hydrological model; The acquired meteorological observation data and land use data are input into the calibrated hydrological model to obtain the runoff data in the study area without the influence of human activities.

3. The method for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics according to claim 1, characterized in that: The meteorological drought index is obtained by using the log-logistic distribution fitting method; the first hydrological drought index and the second hydrological drought index are both obtained by using the gamma distribution fitting method.

4. The method for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation method of drought transfer characteristics from meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events includes: Based on the meteorological drought index series, the first hydrological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series, the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time under the influence of human activities is calculated. Meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time without human activities ; The three-threshold run theory method is used to identify meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events under two scenarios for the meteorological drought index series, the first hydrological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series, and the drought duration, drought intensity and drought frequency of meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events are identified. Match the identified meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events to find out the hydrological drought events caused by meteorological drought events.

5. The method for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics according to claim 4, characterized in that: The calculation method of the drought transfer characteristics of the meteorological drought event to the hydrological drought event under the scenario of human activity influence includes: Calculate the Spearman correlation coefficient between the meteorological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series; Find the time scale of the meteorological drought index series corresponding to the maximum Spearman correlation coefficient as the transmission time of meteorological-hydrological drought under the influence of human activities ; The three-threshold run theory method is used to identify meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events based on the meteorological drought index series and the second hydrological drought index series, and the drought duration, drought intensity and drought frequency of meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events are identified; If the drought lasts for 1 month and the corresponding drought index is less than the set second drought index threshold Remove the event when If the interval between two drought events is only one month, and the drought index of the interval month is less than or equal to the first drought index threshold When the drought event is 1, the two drought events are merged into one drought event. The duration of the merged drought event is the sum of the duration of the two droughts plus one month, and the intensity is the sum of the intensities of the two droughts. Match the identified meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events to find out the hydrological drought events caused by meteorological drought events. The matching rules are: ； in, For the The time when the hydrological drought event started, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, is the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time under the influence of human activities; if the start time of a meteorological drought event is in If the trigger period of the hydrological drought is Meteorological drought events in response to hydrological drought; based on The effective transmission rate of meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events under the scenario of human activities is calculated as the drought transmission characteristic, where: is the effective transmission rate under the scenario of human activities, is the number of meteorological drought events that trigger hydrological drought events under the scenario of human activities, It is the total number of meteorological drought events under the scenario of human activities.

6. The method for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics according to claim 4, characterized in that: The calculation method of the drought transfer characteristics of the meteorological drought event to the hydrological drought event under the scenario without human activity impact includes: The Spearman correlation coefficient is calculated for the meteorological drought index series and the first hydrological drought index series; Find the time scale of the meteorological drought index series corresponding to the maximum Spearman correlation coefficient as the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time without the influence of human activities ; The three-threshold run theory method is used to identify meteorological drought and hydrological drought events based on the first hydrological drought index sequence, and the drought duration, drought intensity and drought frequency of meteorological drought and hydrological drought are identified; If the drought lasts for 1 month and the corresponding drought index is less than the set second drought index threshold Remove the event when If the interval between two drought events is only one month, and the drought index of that month is less than or equal to the first drought index threshold When the drought event is 1, the two drought events are merged into one drought event. The duration of the merged drought event is the sum of the duration of the two droughts plus one month, and the intensity is the sum of the intensities of the two droughts. Match the identified meteorological drought events and hydrological drought events to find out the hydrological drought events caused by meteorological drought. The matching rules are as follows: ； in, For the The time when the hydrological drought event started, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, For the The end time of the hydrological drought event, is the meteorological-hydrological drought transmission time without the influence of human activities; if the start time of a meteorological drought event is in If the trigger period of the hydrological drought is Meteorological drought events in response to hydrological drought; based on The effective transmission rate of meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events in the scenario without human activity impact is calculated as the drought transmission characteristic, where: is the effective transmission rate in the scenario without human activities, is the number of meteorological drought events that trigger hydrological drought events in the scenario without human activity impact, It is the total number of meteorological drought events in the scenario without the impact of human activities.

7. The method for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics according to claim 1, characterized in that: The impact of human activities on drought transmission characteristics includes the impact degree of human activities on drought transmission time and the impact degree of human activities on drought transmission probability.

8. The method for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics according to claim 7, characterized in that: The impact of human activities on drought transmission time is calculated using the following formula: ； The impact of human activities on the probability of drought transmission is calculated using the following formula: ； in, is the impact of human activities on the duration of drought, If it is greater than 0, it means that human activities have prolonged the time for meteorological drought to be transmitted to hydrological drought, and the larger the absolute value, the greater the impact; and These are the drought transmission time under the influence of human activities and without the influence of human activities; Indicates the impact of human activities on the probability of drought transmission, is the probability of drought transmission under the influence of human activities, is the probability of drought transmission without the influence of human activities; When it is greater than 0, it means that human activities promote the transmission process of meteorological drought to hydrological drought; when When it is less than 0, it means that human activities hinder the transmission process of meteorological drought to hydrological drought. The larger the absolute value of , the greater the impact of human activities on drought transmission.

9. A device for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics, characterized in that: include: A first drought index sequence calculation module is used to simulate the hydrological process of the study area without the influence of human activities based on the calibrated hydrological model, obtain the runoff data of the study area without the influence of human activities, and calculate the first hydrological drought index sequence based on the runoff data; The second drought index sequence calculation module is used to calculate the meteorological drought index sequence and the second hydrological drought index sequence under the influence of human activities in the study area based on the meteorological observation data and the hydrological observation data; A drought transfer characteristic calculation module is used to identify drought events and their characteristics based on the meteorological drought index sequence, the first hydrological drought index sequence and the second hydrological drought index sequence, and calculate drought transfer characteristics of meteorological drought events to hydrological drought events under scenarios with and without human activity impact; The impact identification module is used to compare the drought transfer characteristics under two scenarios and obtain the impact of human activities on drought transfer characteristics.

10. A system for identifying the impact of human activities on meteorological-hydrological drought transmission characteristics, characterized in that: including storage media and processors; The storage medium is used to store instructions; The processor is configured to operate according to the instructions to perform the method according to any one of claims 1-8.

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