A solar power supply control method and system

Abstract

The present invention relates to the field of solar power supply technology, specifically a solar power supply control method and system, firstly, power consumption data is obtained and processed through a power prediction model to obtain predicted power, and the predicted power is processed to determine the power consumption state; then, light data is obtained and processed to obtain power generation environment evaluation indicators, which are used to determine whether stable power generation can be achieved; if the current period is a power stable period, power supply control is performed according to the average power generation power and power consumption of the solar photovoltaic panel; if it is a power fluctuation period, power supply control is performed according to the average power generation power and peak power; if it is a power peak period, power supply control is performed according to the power generation power and the maximum power consumption; if stable power generation cannot be achieved, time-of-use electricity price data is obtained and processed to obtain power grid electricity fee information, and power supply control is performed according to the power grid electricity fee information. The present invention improves the efficiency and stability of the power supply system by considering stable power generation and the prediction of the power consumption state of the household.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of solar power supply, and in particular to a solar power supply control method and system. Background Art

[0002] Solar power supply refers to the use of photovoltaic technology to convert light energy into electrical energy for use in homes, industries or other electrical equipment. It is widely used in home power supply, off-grid power supply, transportation power supply and agriculture. The solar power supply system is mainly composed of solar photovoltaic panels, energy storage equipment, inverters and control systems. Solar photovoltaic panels convert solar energy into direct current through the photovoltaic effect, and energy storage equipment is used to store excess electricity for use at night or when solar radiation is insufficient. The inverter converts direct current into alternating current to meet the needs of electrical equipment.

[0003] At present, there are many problems with solar power supply, such as strong weather dependence, immature energy storage technology, limited power generation efficiency and grid integration problems. In home solar power supply, the problem is more prominent due to the high initial construction cost and difficult maintenance of home solar systems. Therefore, it is necessary to control the home solar power supply system to improve the efficiency and stability of the system and optimize energy storage and power dispatching.

[0004] To this end, a solar power supply control method and system are proposed. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a solar power supply control method and system, which establishes a power prediction model and uses historical data to predict the power in the future to determine the current and future household power status; then calculates the power generation environment evaluation index to determine whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably in the current and future period; finally, in the power stable period, power fluctuation period and power peak period, the solar photovoltaic panel power supply, energy storage device power supply and power grid power supply are flexibly adjusted by comparing the solar photovoltaic panel and other power parameters.

[0006] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0007] A solar power supply control method, comprising:

[0008] Establish a power prediction model based on the time series model and the machine learning model, obtain historical household electricity consumption data and process it using the power prediction model to obtain the final predicted power; obtain the final predicted power and process it to obtain a power stable period, a power fluctuation period and a power peak period;

[0009] Further, the power stable period, the power fluctuation period and the power peak period include:

[0010] Acquire the household historical electricity consumption data and process it using a time series model to obtain a time series predicted power;

[0011] Obtaining and processing the predicted power and the actual power of the time series to obtain a residual;

[0012] Obtaining the time series predicted power and environmental data and processing them using a machine learning model to obtain a prediction residual;

[0013] Acquire the time series prediction power and the prediction residual and process them to obtain a final prediction power; perform curve fitting on the final prediction power to obtain a fitting power;

[0014] Acquiring and processing the fitted power to obtain power fluctuation data, wherein the fluctuation data includes a maximum power and a power fluctuation amplitude;

[0015] If the maximum power is greater than the first power threshold, or the power fluctuation amplitude within the split time is greater than the first preset amplitude threshold, it means that the current time period is the power peak time period;

[0016] If the maximum power is less than the second power threshold and the power fluctuation amplitude within the divided time is less than the second preset amplitude threshold, it indicates that the current period is the power stable period;

[0017] If the current time period does not belong to the power peak time period and does not belong to the power stable time period, it is the power fluctuation time period;

[0018] The first power threshold is greater than the second power threshold, and the first preset amplitude threshold is greater than the second preset amplitude threshold.

[0019] Acquire and process the illumination data to obtain a power generation environment evaluation index, wherein the power generation environment evaluation index is used to determine whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably;

[0020] Furthermore, the power generation environment evaluation indicators include:

[0021] If the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that stable power generation can be achieved; if the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that stable power generation cannot be achieved. The calculation formula of the power generation environment evaluation index is:

[0022] ;

[0023] in, represents the power generation environment evaluation index, Indicates the current solar irradiance, represents the minimum solar irradiance, Represents the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic panels, Indicates the current ambient temperature. represents the optimal ambient temperature, Indicates the current ambient wind speed. represents the optimal ambient wind speed, Indicates the current ambient humidity. Indicates the optimal ambient humidity, Indicates the environmental stabilization time.

[0024] If the current period is the power stable period, judging whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate power stably according to the power generation environment evaluation index, and performing power supply control;

[0025] Furthermore, when the current period is the power stable period, if the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel can generate power stably;

[0026] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is lower than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is charged and powered by the power grid; the average power consumption represents the average power of the final predicted power;

[0027] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not less than the minimum energy storage threshold, and the amount of electricity is not greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, power is supplied through the solar photovoltaic panel, and excess electricity is stored in the energy storage device, where the excess electricity refers to the electricity remaining after the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is used for household loads;

[0028] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, power is supplied by the solar photovoltaic panel and the excess electricity is connected to the power grid.

[0029] Furthermore, if the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is used to supply power, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is connected to the power grid;

[0030] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power grid is used to supply electricity, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device.

[0031] Further, if the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel cannot generate electricity stably;

[0032] If the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is used to supply power, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is connected to the power grid;

[0033] If the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power is supplied through the grid, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is stored in the energy storage device.

[0034] If the current period is the power fluctuation period, judging whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably according to the power generation environment evaluation index, and performing power supply control;

[0035] Furthermore, when the current period is the power fluctuation period, if the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably;

[0036] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the mean peak power, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is lower than the minimum energy storage threshold, the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device and supplied through the power grid; the mean peak power represents the mean of the power peaks within the final predicted power;

[0037] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the peak power average, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not less than the minimum energy storage threshold and the amount of electricity is not greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the power is supplied by solar energy and the excess electricity is stored in the energy storage device;

[0038] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the average peak power, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the power is supplied by solar energy, and the excess electricity is connected to the power grid;

[0039] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the peak power average, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is used to supply power, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is connected to the power grid;

[0040] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the peak power average, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power grid is used to supply electricity, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device.

[0041] Furthermore, if the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel cannot generate electricity stably, and the power is supplied through the power grid, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device.

[0042] If the current time period is the peak power period, the time-of-use electricity price data is obtained and processed to obtain the power grid electricity fee information, which includes peak-time electricity fees and valley-time electricity fees; based on the power generation environment evaluation index, it is judged whether the solar photovoltaic panels can generate electricity stably, and power supply control is performed; if the power generation cannot be stably generated, power supply control is performed based on the power grid electricity fee information.

[0043] Furthermore, when the current period is the peak power period, if the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably;

[0044] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the maximum power consumption, the solar photovoltaic panel is used to supply power, and the excess power is stored in the energy storage device; if the power of the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the excess power is connected to the power grid; the maximum power consumption represents the highest power value in the final predicted power;

[0045] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the maximum power consumption, and the power of the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power is supplied by the energy storage device, and the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is connected to the power grid;

[0046] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the maximum power consumption, and the power of the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power grid is used to supply power, and the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device;

[0047] If the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel cannot generate electricity stably;

[0048] If stable power generation is not possible, and the electricity fee for the current period is the peak electricity fee, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, power is supplied through the energy storage device;

[0049] If the electricity charge for the current period is the peak-time electricity charge, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the electricity is supplied through the grid, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is connected to the grid;

[0050] If the electricity fee for the current period is the off-peak electricity fee, the power is supplied through the power grid; the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is stored in the energy storage device; if the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is connected to the power grid.

[0051] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0052] 1. By acquiring and analyzing historical household electricity consumption data and accurately dividing the electricity consumption time periods, it is possible to determine whether the current time period is a stable power period, a fluctuating power period, or a peak power period. The electricity demand during the stable power period is relatively stable, while the electricity demand during the fluctuating power period is unstable and the power fluctuates. The electricity demand during the peak power period is the largest. This can capture the different states of household electricity consumption and provide data support for the subsequent optimization of the power supply mode of the power supply system, so that the power supply system can more effectively match the actual power demand.

[0053] 2. By combining key influencing factors such as solar irradiance, photovoltaic panel conversion efficiency, ambient temperature, wind speed and humidity, a power generation environment evaluation index for evaluating the current state of solar power generation is designed, which realizes accurate assessment of the power generation environment and can dynamically determine whether stable power generation can be achieved under different weather and environmental conditions. It provides auxiliary information for the subsequent adjustment of the power supply mode of the power supply system, thereby improving the control accuracy and efficiency of the power supply system.

[0054] 3. First, identify the current power period. Then, during the stable power period, the power supply system switches the power supply mode according to the power of the solar photovoltaic panels and the average demand power to ensure a continuous and stable supply of electricity. During the power fluctuation period, by monitoring the power fluctuation mean and the remaining power of the energy storage device, the system can adjust the power supply strategy in time to prevent the impact of unstable power supply. During the peak power period, the system gives priority to the use of energy storage devices to supply power during peak electricity charges, thereby reducing electricity costs, and gives priority to storing electricity during valley electricity charges to prepare for peak electricity charges, thereby improving power supply efficiency. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0055] Figure 1 A flow chart of a solar power supply control method provided in Example 1 of the present invention;

[0056] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the structure of a power prediction model provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 3 This is a schematic structural diagram of a solar power supply control system provided in Example 2 of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0058] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0059] Example 1

[0060] A photovoltaic new energy company introduced a solar power supply control method provided by the present invention when installing household solar energy for customers. The process is as follows: Figure 1 As shown, in order to improve the working efficiency and safety of the solar power supply system, the specific implementation method is as follows:

[0061] First, the system obtains the household's historical electricity consumption data from multiple channels such as smart meters, energy management systems or power company platforms, and processes it through the power prediction model to obtain the final predicted power, and further obtains the power stable period, power fluctuation period and power peak period;

[0062] Further, Figure 2 The figure shows the schematic diagram of the structure of the power prediction model, which is a prediction method that combines the time series model and the machine learning model to capture the linear and nonlinear fluctuations in the power data. In the power prediction problem, power fluctuations may have linear trends and periodic laws, and may also be affected by external complex factors to produce nonlinear fluctuations. Therefore, a single model may not be able to fully capture these characteristics. The hybrid model can make up for this deficiency and thus improve the prediction accuracy.

[0063] Furthermore, after obtaining the household's historical electricity consumption data and preprocessing it, the historical power data is first modeled through a time series model, such as the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) model, to identify and predict linear trends and cyclical fluctuations.

[0064] Furthermore, setting time windows and make predictions, we get some time in the future The predicted power results of each time node , and then perform weighted processing on it to obtain the time series prediction power of the time series model. The calculation formula is:

[0065] ;

[0066] in, represents the time series prediction power, Indicates Time nodes, Indicates Prediction power results The weight coefficient of .

[0067] Furthermore, the actual power data is compared with the time series predicted power, and the residual is calculated , the residual represents the part of the time series model that cannot be explained and predicted.

[0068] Furthermore, the time series predicted power is used as input data of the machine learning model, and combined with other input variables such as weather, temperature and number of load devices, to capture and predict nonlinear fluctuations. The machine learning model outputs the predicted residual of the above residual. , the loss function is calculated as:

[0069] ;

[0070] in, represents the loss function, represents the number of samples, Indicates The prediction residuals of samples are Indicates The true residual of samples;

[0071] Furthermore, the calculation formula for the final predicted power is:

[0072] ;

[0073] in, Indicates the predicted The final prediction power of the time node, the prediction residual The length is .

[0074] Table 1 shows the predicted power of some time nodes.

[0075] Table 1. Final predicted power

[0076]

[0077] Furthermore, after predicting the power in the future period, curve fitting is performed on the final predicted power to obtain the fitted power; if the highest power in the fitted power is greater than the first power threshold, or the power fluctuation amplitude within the split time is greater than the first preset amplitude threshold, it means that the current period belongs to the power peak period;

[0078] If the highest power in the fitted power is less than the second power threshold and the power fluctuation amplitude within the divided time is less than the second preset amplitude threshold, it means that the current time period belongs to the power stable time period;

[0079] If the current time period does not belong to the power peak time period and does not belong to the power stable time period, it belongs to the power fluctuation time period;

[0080] The first power threshold is greater than the second power threshold, and the first preset amplitude threshold is greater than the second preset amplitude threshold.

[0081] The segmentation time indicates that the fitting power curve can be segmented with a step length of 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes or 20 minutes.

[0082] Furthermore, through the above operations, it can be determined that the final predicted power in Table 1 belongs to the peak power period. Based on the above data, the system determines that the household power consumption in the current period and a certain period in the future belongs to the peak power period, and performs power supply control based on this.

[0083] The power prediction model combines time series analysis and machine learning models. By integrating the time series prediction results and actual power data, the residuals are calculated and predicted using machine learning models. This better reflects the complex characteristics of power data and enables accurate prediction of household power usage in the future. Based on accurate predictions, the predicted power is further processed to divide it into periods of stable success rate, periods of power fluctuation and periods of power peak, providing data support for subsequent optimization of the power supply mode of the power supply system.

[0084] The illumination data is acquired and processed to obtain a power generation environment evaluation index, which is used to determine whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably.

[0085] Furthermore, the lighting data includes current solar irradiance, minimum solar irradiance, photovoltaic panel conversion efficiency, current ambient temperature, optimal ambient temperature, current ambient wind speed, optimal ambient wind speed, current ambient humidity, optimal ambient humidity and ambient stabilization time. The minimum solar irradiance refers to the minimum irradiance at which the photovoltaic panel can work and generate electricity.

[0086] If the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that stable power generation can be achieved; if the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that stable power generation cannot be achieved. The calculation formula of the power generation environment evaluation index is:

[0087] ;

[0088] in, represents the power generation environment evaluation index, Indicates the current solar irradiance, represents the minimum solar irradiance, Represents the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic panels, Indicates the current ambient temperature. represents the optimal ambient temperature, Indicates the current ambient wind speed. represents the optimal ambient wind speed, Indicates the current ambient humidity. Indicates the optimal ambient humidity, Indicates the environmental stabilization time, which can be obtained by obtaining weather-related data.

[0089] Furthermore, the relevant light data for the current period is obtained, and the solar irradiance is 823W / m 2 , the minimum solar irradiance is 200W / m 2 The conversion efficiency of the photovoltaic panel is 0.18, the ambient temperature is 35℃, the optimal ambient temperature is 25℃, the wind speed is 3.5m / s, the humidity is 52%, and the environmental stabilization time is 4 hours. After calculation, the power generation environment evaluation index is 1.48, which is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index, indicating that the current solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably for a period of time.

[0090] By combining key influencing factors such as solar irradiance, photovoltaic panel conversion efficiency, ambient temperature, wind speed and humidity, a power generation environment evaluation index was designed to evaluate the current status of solar power generation. This enables accurate assessment of the power generation environment and can dynamically determine whether stable power generation can be achieved under different weather and environmental conditions, providing assistance for flexible adjustment and optimization of subsequent system power supply modes.

[0091] If the current period belongs to the power stable period, judging whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate power stably according to the power generation environment evaluation index, and performing power supply control;

[0092] Furthermore, when the current period belongs to the power stable period, if the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel can generate power stably;

[0093] Furthermore, when the solar photovoltaic panels can generate electricity stably, if the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is lower than the minimum energy storage threshold, the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels will be used to charge the energy storage device first and then supply power through the power grid; the average power consumption represents the average power of the final predicted power obtained by the power prediction model.

[0094] Furthermore, if the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not less than the minimum energy storage threshold and the amount of electricity is not greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, power is supplied through the solar photovoltaic panel, and excess power is stored in the energy storage device, wherein the excess power refers to the power remaining after the power generated by solar energy is used for household loads;

[0095] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the solar photovoltaic panels will be used to supply power, and the excess electricity will be connected to the power grid in exchange for subsidies.

[0096] After predicting that the current period is a period of stable power, and judging that the solar photovoltaic panels can generate electricity stably, when the power of the energy storage device is low, the energy storage device is charged by the solar photovoltaic panels first, and then supplied with power through the grid; and when the power of the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the dependence on the grid is reduced, and the solar photovoltaic panels are directly used to supply power to the household loads. This can optimize energy scheduling, ensure power supply stability, and improve the power supply efficiency of the system.

[0097] Furthermore, if the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is used to supply electricity until the amount of electricity is no greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is connected to the power grid in exchange for subsidies;

[0098] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power grid is used to supply electricity, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device until the amount of electricity is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold.

[0099] When the power generation capacity of the solar photovoltaic panels is not greater than the average power consumption, if the solar photovoltaic panels are still used for power supply, there is a safety risk of unstable power supply. At this time, the power in the energy storage device is used first to power the home, avoiding the immediate use of the power grid, ensuring that the power in the existing energy storage device is maximized when the power generation capacity is insufficient, reducing dependence on the power grid and improving the energy efficiency of the system; when the energy storage device is supplying power, the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is exchanged for subsidies to reduce electricity bills; only when the energy storage device is insufficient will the system obtain electricity from the power grid, which can effectively control electricity costs and improve power supply stability.

[0100] If the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel cannot generate electricity stably. In this case, if the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is used to supply electricity until the amount of electricity is no greater than the minimum energy storage threshold. The electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is connected to the power grid in exchange for subsidies.

[0101] If the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power grid is used to supply electricity, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is stored in the energy storage device until the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold.

[0102] When the system identifies that the current power generation environment is insufficient for stable power generation, it will give priority to using the electricity in the energy storage device to power the home, ensuring that when the solar photovoltaic panels are insufficient, it can still provide a stable power supply for the home load, avoiding sudden power outages or unstable power supply; at the same time, the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is connected to the grid in exchange for subsidies, avoiding solar power being idle or wasted due to poor power generation environment. When the power in the energy storage device is insufficient and needs to rely on the grid for power supply, the system will also store the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panels in the energy storage device until the power reaches the maximum storage threshold, reducing dependence on the grid in a favorable power generation environment in the future and balancing the grid load.

[0103] Furthermore, when the current period belongs to the power fluctuation period, the power generation environment evaluation index is obtained, and if the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than a preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it indicates that the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably;

[0104] If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the mean peak power, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is lower than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is charged and powered by the power grid, and the mean peak power represents the mean of the power peak of the final predicted power obtained by the power prediction model;

[0105] If the solar power generation power is greater than the peak power average, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not less than the minimum energy storage threshold, and the amount of electricity is not greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, power is supplied through the solar photovoltaic panel, and the excess electricity generated after the solar photovoltaic panel is supplied is stored in the energy storage device;

[0106] If the solar power generation power is greater than the peak power average, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the solar photovoltaic panels are used to supply power, and the excess electricity is connected to the grid in exchange for subsidies;

[0107] If the solar power generation power is not greater than the peak power average, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is used to supply power until the amount of electricity is no greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is connected to the grid in exchange for subsidies;

[0108] If the solar power generation power is not greater than the peak power average, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power grid is used to supply power, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is stored in the energy storage device until the amount of electricity is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold.

[0109] When the current period is a power fluctuation period, if the solar photovoltaic panels can generate electricity stably, the generated power is compared with the peak power average and the power supply mode is switched; when the generated power is higher than the peak power average, while supplying power through the solar photovoltaic panels, the excess power is stored or connected to the grid in exchange for subsidies; when the generated power is lower than the fluctuation average, the system uses energy storage equipment or grid power supply, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is used for storage or in exchange for subsidies, which maximizes the use efficiency of solar power and improves the stability of the system power supply.

[0110] Furthermore, if the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel cannot generate electricity stably. In this case, the power is supplied through the power grid, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device. If the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is connected to the power grid in exchange for subsidies.

[0111] When the power generation environment evaluation index is lower than the threshold, the power supply system will determine that the solar photovoltaic panels cannot generate electricity stably and will automatically switch to grid power supply. This ensures that household electricity use will not be affected under adverse weather conditions or when the power generation capacity is insufficient or fluctuates greatly, thus ensuring the continuity and stability of the power supply.

[0112] When the current period is the power peak period, the power generation environment evaluation index is obtained. If the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably.

[0113] When the solar photovoltaic panel generates electricity stably, if the solar power generation power is greater than the maximum power consumption, the power is supplied by solar power generation, and the excess power is stored in the energy storage device; if the power of the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the excess power is connected to the power grid; the maximum power consumption represents the highest power value in the final predicted power obtained by the power prediction model;

[0114] If the solar power generation power is not greater than the maximum power consumption, and the power of the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device will be used to supply power until the power is no greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, and the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panels will be connected to the grid in exchange for subsidies;

[0115] If the solar power generation power is not greater than the maximum power consumption, and the power of the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, power is supplied through the power grid, and the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device;

[0116] Furthermore, if the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than a preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel cannot generate electricity stably.

[0117] If stable power generation is not possible, and the electricity charge for the current period is the peak-time electricity charge, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is used to supply power, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is connected to the grid in exchange for subsidies;

[0118] If stable power generation is not possible, and the electricity charge for the current period is the peak-time electricity charge, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, power is supplied through the grid, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is stored in the energy storage device;

[0119] If stable power generation is not possible and the electricity rate for the current period is the off-peak electricity rate, the power is supplied through the grid, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is stored in the energy storage device; if the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is connected to the grid in exchange for subsidies.

[0120] During the peak power period, if the solar photovoltaic panels can generate electricity stably, the generated power will be compared with the predicted maximum power consumption to ensure that the solar photovoltaic panels can be used efficiently and stably to supply power during the peak power period to reduce the load on the power grid; when the generated power of the solar photovoltaic panels is not greater than the maximum power consumption, the energy storage device or the power grid will be used to supply power to ensure the stability of power supply during the peak power consumption period; if the power supply cannot be stable, then consider whether the electricity price of the power grid in the current period is peak electricity price or valley electricity price, and flexibly adjust the power supply to achieve maximum cost control.

[0121] A solar power supply control method provided by the present invention firstly establishes a power prediction model by combining a time series model and a machine learning model to determine whether the household power category in the current and future period belongs to a stable power period, a fluctuating power period, or a peak power period, so as to provide data support for the selection of subsequent power supply modes; then, by designing power generation environment evaluation indicators, it is determined whether the current power generation state can generate power stably, and on this basis, the power generation power of the solar photovoltaic panel is compared with the data in the predicted power, and the power supply mode is selected based on the comparison result, thereby improving the efficiency and stability of the power supply system; during the peak power period, if the solar photovoltaic panel cannot generate power stably, the price of the power grid electricity fee is also considered to select the power supply mode, thereby controlling the power supply cost and improving the power supply efficiency.

[0122] Example 2

[0123] The present invention provides an intelligent solar power supply control system for improving the efficiency and stability of household solar power supply. The system structure is as follows: Figure 3As shown. The system flexibly adjusts solar power supply, energy storage and grid power supply through multiple data source analysis and intelligent decision-making, thereby maximizing the use of solar power generation resources and optimizing home energy management. The specific implementation method is as follows:

[0124] The power period judgment module establishes a power prediction model based on the time series model and the machine learning model, obtains the household's historical electricity consumption data and processes it using the power prediction model to obtain the final predicted power; obtains the final predicted power and processes it to obtain the power stable period, power fluctuation period and power peak period;

[0125] Furthermore, the power period judgment module obtains power data of the past period and predicts the power of the future period through the power prediction model. It judges whether the current period is in a stable power period, a power fluctuation period, or a power peak period through past and future power data, providing data support for the subsequent optimization of the power supply mode of the power supply system.

[0126] Table 2. Some final predicted power

[0127]

[0128] Table 2 shows part of the final predicted power data. After further processing and judgment, it can be concluded that the current period belongs to a power stable period.

[0129] A power generation environment evaluation index calculation module obtains and processes light data to obtain a power generation environment evaluation index, which is used to determine whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably;

[0130] Furthermore, the illumination data includes solar irradiance, minimum solar irradiance, photovoltaic panel conversion efficiency, ambient temperature, optimal ambient temperature, ambient wind speed, optimal ambient wind speed, ambient humidity, optimal ambient humidity and ambient stabilization time. If the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that stable power generation can be achieved; if the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that stable power generation cannot be achieved. The introduction of the power generation environment evaluation index to determine whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate stable power in the current period provides help for the flexible adjustment and optimization of the subsequent system power supply mode.

[0131] The power generation environment evaluation index is further calculated to be 1.21, and the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold is 1, and the solar photovoltaic panels can generate electricity stably.

[0132] The power supply module in the power stable period determines whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate power stably according to the power generation environment evaluation index, and performs power supply control;

[0133] Furthermore, after determining that the current period is a period of stable power, first determine whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably based on the power generation environment evaluation index. If it can generate electricity stably, compare the generated power and the average power consumption of the solar photovoltaic panel, and perform power supply control.

[0134] Furthermore, the calculation method of the average power consumption includes:

[0135] First, the final predicted power obtained by the power prediction model is obtained, and the final predicted power includes the power prediction for a certain period of time in the future. The power forecast of each time node is obtained, all the predicted powers are obtained and the average is calculated to obtain the predicted average power consumption. The calculation formula is:

[0136] ;

[0137] in, represents the average power consumption, Indicates The predicted power at each time point.

[0138] Furthermore, if the solar photovoltaic panels cannot generate electricity stably, power will be supplied through energy storage devices and the power grid first to ensure stable and safe power supply. The electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels will be used for storage and exchange for subsidies to improve economic benefits.

[0139] A power supply module during power fluctuation period, used to determine whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably according to the power generation environment evaluation index, and to perform power supply control;

[0140] Furthermore, after determining that the current period is a power fluctuation period, first determine whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably based on the power generation environment evaluation index. If it can generate electricity stably, compare the power generation power of the solar photovoltaic panel with the peak power average, and perform power supply control.

[0141] Furthermore, firstly, the final predicted power obtained by the power prediction model is obtained and curve fitting is performed to obtain the fitted power; a coordinate system is established for the fitted power, and on the fitted power curve, there is a position where the derivative is equal to 0, and data where the power is greater than the average power consumption at the position is obtained to obtain the peak power set , calculate the mean value in the set to obtain the peak power mean value, and the calculation formula is:

[0142] ;

[0143] in, represents the peak power mean, represents the number of elements in the peak power set, Indicates The peak power.

[0144] Furthermore, if the solar photovoltaic panels cannot provide stable power supply, the power grid will be used to ensure stable and safe power supply.

[0145] The power supply module during peak power period is used to obtain and process time-of-use electricity price data to obtain power grid electricity fee information, which includes peak-time electricity fee and valley-time electricity fee; judge whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably according to the power generation environment evaluation index, and perform power supply control; if it cannot generate electricity stably, the power supply is controlled according to the power grid electricity fee information.

[0146] Furthermore, after determining that the current period is a peak power period, first determine whether the solar photovoltaic panels can generate electricity stably based on the power generation environment evaluation indicators. If they can generate electricity stably, compare the power generation power of the solar photovoltaic panels with the maximum power consumption, and perform power supply control.

[0147] Furthermore, the maximum power consumption refers to the final predicted power obtained by the power prediction model. The maximum power value at a time node is the maximum power consumption.

[0148] Furthermore, if the solar photovoltaic panels cannot generate electricity stably, considering the high power demand and high electricity charges during the peak power period, the power grid electricity charge information is taken into consideration. If the power grid electricity charge at this time is the peak power charge, the energy storage device is used for power supply first to reduce the electricity charge expenditure; if the power grid electricity charge at this time is the valley power charge, the power grid is used for power supply first, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels and the electricity stored in the energy storage device are stored first to prepare for the peak power charge. Through the above control method, the economic benefits are improved and the power supply efficiency is improved.

[0149] Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that various changes, modifications, substitutions and variations may be made to the embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the present invention, and that the scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.

Claims

1. A solar power supply control method, characterized in that: include: A power prediction model is established based on the time series model and the machine learning model. The household historical electricity consumption data is obtained and processed using the time series model to obtain the time series predicted power; the time series predicted power and actual power are obtained and processed to obtain the residual; the time series predicted power and environmental data are obtained and processed using the machine learning model to obtain the predicted residual; the time series predicted power and the predicted residual are obtained and processed to obtain the final predicted power; Perform curve fitting on the final predicted power to obtain fitted power; obtain and process the fitted power to obtain power fluctuation data, which includes the highest power and the power fluctuation amplitude; If the highest power is greater than the first power threshold, or the power fluctuation amplitude within the split time is greater than the first preset amplitude threshold, it means that the current period is a power peak period; If the maximum power is less than the second power threshold and the power fluctuation amplitude within the split time is less than the second preset amplitude threshold, it means that the current period is a power stable period; If the current period is neither a peak power period nor a stable power period, it is a power fluctuation period; The first power threshold is greater than the second power threshold, and the first preset amplitude threshold is greater than the second preset amplitude threshold; The light data is obtained and processed to obtain the power generation environment evaluation index. If the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that stable power generation can be achieved; if the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that stable power generation cannot be achieved. The calculation formula of the power generation environment evaluation index is: in, represents the power generation environment evaluation index, Indicates the current solar irradiance, represents the minimum solar irradiance, Represents the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic panels, Indicates the current ambient temperature. represents the optimal ambient temperature, Indicates the current ambient wind speed. represents the optimal ambient wind speed, Indicates the current ambient humidity. represents the optimal ambient humidity, Indicates the environmental stabilization time”; After determining whether the current period is a stable power period or a fluctuating power period, determine whether the solar photovoltaic panels can generate stable power based on the power generation environment evaluation index, and perform power supply control based on the average power consumption, energy storage threshold and peak power average; If the current period is the peak power period, the time-of-use electricity price data is obtained and processed to obtain the power grid electricity fee information, which includes peak-time electricity fees and valley-time electricity fees. According to the power generation environment evaluation indicators, it is judged whether the solar photovoltaic panels can generate electricity stably, and the power supply is controlled. If the power generation cannot be stable, the power supply is controlled according to the power grid electricity fee information.

2. A solar power supply control method according to claim 1, characterized in that: When the current period is the power stable period, if the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel can generate power stably; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is lower than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is charged and powered by the power grid; the average power consumption represents the average power of the final predicted power; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not less than the minimum energy storage threshold, and the amount of electricity is not greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, power is supplied through the solar photovoltaic panel, and excess electricity is stored in the energy storage device, where the excess electricity refers to the electricity remaining after the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is used for household loads; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, power is supplied by the solar photovoltaic panel and the excess electricity is connected to the power grid.

3. A solar power supply control method according to claim 2, characterized in that: If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is used to supply power, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is connected to the power grid; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the average power consumption, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power grid is used to supply electricity, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device.

4. A solar power supply control method according to claim 2, characterized in that: If the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel cannot generate electricity stably; If the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is used to supply power, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is connected to the power grid; If the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power is supplied through the grid, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is stored in the energy storage device.

5. A solar power supply control method according to claim 1, characterized in that: When the current period is the power fluctuation period, if the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the mean peak power, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is lower than the minimum energy storage threshold, the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device and supplied through the power grid; the mean peak power represents the mean of the power peaks within the final predicted power; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the peak power average, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not less than the minimum energy storage threshold, and the amount of electricity is not greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, power is supplied by solar energy, and excess electricity is stored in the energy storage device; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the average peak power, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the power is supplied by solar energy, and the excess electricity is connected to the power grid; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the peak power average, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the energy storage device is used to supply power, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is connected to the power grid; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the peak power average, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power grid is used to supply electricity, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device.

6. A solar power supply control method according to claim 5, characterized in that: If the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel cannot generate electricity stably, and the power is supplied through the power grid, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device.

7. A solar power supply control method according to claim 1, characterized in that: When the current period is the peak power period, if the power generation environment evaluation index is greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is greater than the maximum power consumption, the solar photovoltaic panel is used to supply power, and the excess power is stored in the energy storage device; if the power of the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the excess power is connected to the power grid; The maximum power consumption represents the highest power value in the final predicted power; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the maximum power consumption, and the power of the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power is supplied by the energy storage device, and the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is connected to the power grid; If the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is not greater than the maximum power consumption, and the power of the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the power grid is used to supply power, and the power generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is stored in the energy storage device; If the power generation environment evaluation index is not greater than the preset power generation environment evaluation index threshold, it means that the solar photovoltaic panel cannot generate electricity stably; If stable power generation is not possible, and the electricity fee for the current period is the peak electricity fee, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, power is supplied through the energy storage device; If the electricity charge for the current period is the peak-time electricity charge, and the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is not greater than the minimum energy storage threshold, the electricity is supplied through the grid, and the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is connected to the grid; If the electricity fee for the current period is the off-peak electricity fee, the power is supplied through the power grid; the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is stored in the energy storage device; if the amount of electricity in the energy storage device is greater than the maximum energy storage threshold, the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels is connected to the power grid.

8. A solar power supply control system, characterized in that: include: The power period judgment module establishes a power prediction model based on the time series model and the machine learning model, obtains the household's historical electricity consumption data and processes it using the power prediction model to obtain the final predicted power; obtains the final predicted power and processes it to obtain the power stable period, power fluctuation period and power peak period; A power generation environment evaluation index calculation module obtains and processes light data to obtain a power generation environment evaluation index, which is used to determine whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably; A power supply module during a stable power period, used to determine whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate stable power according to the power generation environment evaluation index, and to perform power supply control; A power supply module during power fluctuation period, used to determine whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably according to the power generation environment evaluation index, and to perform power supply control; The power supply module during peak power period is used to obtain and process time-of-use electricity price data to obtain power grid electricity fee information, which includes peak-time electricity fee and valley-time electricity fee; judge whether the solar photovoltaic panel can generate electricity stably according to the power generation environment evaluation index, and perform power supply control; if it cannot generate electricity stably, the power supply is controlled according to the power grid electricity fee information.

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