Flue-cured tobacco yield dynamic prediction method based on GIS application

Abstract

The invention discloses a flue-cured tobacco yield dynamic prediction method based on GIS (Geographic Information System) application. The method comprises the following steps: (1) obtaining flue-cured tobacco varieties, row spacing, plant spacing and acre of each flue-cured tobacco variety planted in a flue-cured tobacco planting area in the current year by adopting a GIS system; (2) the GIS system calculates the planting number of each flue-cured tobacco variety; (3) the GIS system obtains the average single leaf weight of each leaf position of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the flue-cured tobacco planting area for many years in the past, and calculates the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety; (4) establishing a flue-cured tobacco yield dynamic prediction model in the flue-cured tobacco planting area, wherein a flue-cured tobacco yield dynamic prediction result = flue-cured tobacco theoretical yield-reduced yield of flue-cured tobacco due to disaster-reduced yield of lower leaves abandoned by baking-reduced yield of upper leaves abandoned by baking; the theoretical flue-cured tobacco yield is equal to the sum of the yields of the flue-cured The disaster reduction yield of the flue-cured tobacco is equal to the sum of the disaster reduction yields of the flue-cured tobacco varieties; the reduced yield of the abandoned lower leaves is equal to the sum of the reduced yields of the abandoned lower leaves of the flue-cured tobacco varieties; the reduced yield of the abandoned upper leaves is equal to the sum of the reduced yields of the abandoned upper leaves of the flue-cured tobacco varieties.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the field of flue-cured tobacco planting, and in particular to a flue-cured tobacco yield dynamic prediction method based on GIS application. Background Art

[0002] Flue-cured tobacco is the type of tobacco with the largest cultivation area in my country and the world, and is the main raw material for the cigarette industry. Due to the particularity of the tobacco industry, the yield of tobacco leaves is particularly important for allocating subsequent resources for flue-cured tobacco, such as tobacco leaf procurement resources, to achieve a balance between supply and demand. At present, most people believe that tobacco yield is highly correlated with meteorology, namely rainfall, temperature, light, and fertilization, and the model variables built are basically rainfall, temperature, light, and fertilization. For example, the patent name is a method for predicting tobacco yield based on rainfall in the growing season, and the patent application publication number is CN 110414711A, and the patent name is a method for predicting tobacco leaf yield based on gridded regional meteorological conditions, and the patent application publication number is CN 116644837 A. However, meteorological data such as rainfall, temperature, light, and fertilization are not easy to collect and record, resulting in cumbersome and inefficient work in predicting flue-cured tobacco yield, and little guidance for the allocation of subsequent flue-cured tobacco resources, such as the allocation of tobacco leaf procurement resources. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a flue-cured tobacco yield dynamic prediction method based on GIS application to solve the technical problems of cumbersome and low efficiency of existing flue-cured tobacco yield prediction.

[0004] The objective of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:

[0005] The dynamic prediction method of flue-cured tobacco yield based on GIS application includes the following steps:

[0006] (1) Use the GIS system to obtain the tobacco varieties planted in the tobacco planting area that year and the row spacing, plant spacing and acreage of each tobacco variety;

[0007] (2) The GIS system calculates the number of plants of each flue-cured tobacco variety using the following formula:

[0008] Number of plants planted = 667 ÷ row spacing ÷ plant spacing × acres;

[0009] (3) The GIS system obtains the average single leaf weight of each leaf position of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the flue-cured tobacco planting area in the past years, and calculates the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0010] Average single leaf weight of flue-cured tobacco varieties = sum of average single leaf weights of each leaf position of flue-cured tobacco varieties ÷ average number of leaves of flue-cured tobacco varieties;

[0011] (4) Establish a dynamic prediction model for flue-cured tobacco yield in flue-cured tobacco planting areas:

[0012] Dynamic prediction result of flue-cured tobacco yield = theoretical flue-cured tobacco yield - yield reduction due to disasters - yield reduction due to abandoned lower leaves - yield reduction due to abandoned upper leaves;

[0013] Theoretical yield of flue-cured tobacco = the sum of the yields of all flue-cured tobacco varieties;

[0014] Flue-cured tobacco variety yield = mu × number of plants × average number of leaves × average single leaf weight;

[0015] The reduction in flue-cured tobacco production due to disasters = the sum of the reduction in production of each flue-cured tobacco variety due to disasters;

[0016] The reduction in yield of flue-cured tobacco varieties affected by disasters = number of acres × number of plants × average number of damaged leaves × average single leaf weight of damaged leaves;

[0017] Average weight of damaged leaves = sum of average weight of damaged leaves at each leaf position / number of damaged leaves;

[0018] The reduction in yield due to discarding the lower leaves = the sum of the reduction in yield due to discarding the lower leaves of each flue-cured tobacco variety;

[0019] The yield reduction of discarded lower leaves of flue-cured tobacco varieties = mu × number of plants × average number of discarded lower leaves × average single leaf weight of discarded lower leaves;

[0020] Average single leaf weight of abandoned lower leaves = sum of average single leaf weights of abandoned lower leaves at each leaf position ÷ number of abandoned lower leaves;

[0021] The reduction in yield due to discarding the upper leaves = the sum of the reduction in yield due to discarding the upper leaves of each flue-cured tobacco variety;

[0022] The reduction in yield of flue-cured tobacco varieties due to discarded upper leaves = number of acres × number of plants × average number of discarded upper leaves × average single leaf weight of discarded upper leaves.

[0023] Average single leaf weight of discarded upper leaves = sum of average single leaf weights of all leaf positions of discarded upper leaves ÷ number of discarded upper leaves;

[0024] Furthermore, it also includes (5) model validation, the steps are as follows:

[0025] a. Select multiple sampling points for each flue-cured tobacco variety, and select multiple flue-cured tobacco plants for monitoring at each sampling point;

[0026] b Monitoring method: label each selected flue-cured tobacco plant, implement label-based harvesting and curing, obtain the average single leaf weight of each leaf position of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the current year, and calculate the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the current year. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0027] Average single leaf weight of flue-cured tobacco varieties in the current year = sum of average single leaf weights of each leaf position of flue-cured tobacco varieties in the current year ÷ average number of leaves of flue-cured tobacco varieties in the current year;

[0028] c. Compare the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the current year with the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety calculated in step (3), and correct the average single leaf weight in the prediction model of step (4) by using the deviation ratio.

[0029] Furthermore, multiple flue-cured tobacco plants are selected for monitoring at each sampling point according to the 5-point sampling method. The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0030] The method for dynamically predicting flue-cured tobacco yield based on GIS application of the present invention automatically predicts the flue-cured tobacco yield by inputting the flue-cured tobacco varieties, damaged leaves, number of discarded lower leaves, and number of discarded upper leaves at different periods of the year. The prediction efficiency is high, and the guiding significance for the allocation of flue-cured tobacco processing resources is relatively large, especially for the guiding role of tobacco leaf purchasing work.

[0031] The prediction accuracy is higher through model verification.

[0032] Other advantages, objectives and features of the present invention will be described in the following description to some extent, and to some extent, will be obvious to those skilled in the art based on the following examination and study, or can be taught from the practice of the present invention. The objectives and other advantages of the present invention can be realized and obtained through the following description and claims. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0033] The preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below. It should be understood that the preferred embodiments are only for illustrating the present invention, rather than for limiting the protection scope of the present invention.

[0034] The dynamic prediction method of flue-cured tobacco yield based on GIS application includes the following steps:

[0035] (1) The GIS system is used to collect the latitude, longitude and area of ​​each flue-cured tobacco planting plot in the flue-cured tobacco planting area of ​​the year; the actual tobacco varieties planted and the row spacing (m) and plant spacing (m) of each tobacco variety are manually entered into the GIS system, and the GIS system automatically calculates the number of acres planted for each tobacco variety;

[0036] (2) The system automatically calculates the number of plants of each flue-cured tobacco variety. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0037] Number of plants planted (plants) = 667 ÷ row spacing (m) ÷ plant spacing (m) × number of acres (acres);

[0038] (3) The GIS system collects the average single leaf weight of each leaf position of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the flue-cured tobacco planting area in the past years;

[0039] Take Yunyan 87 as an example: from bottom to top, the average single leaf weight from the 1st leaf to the 18th leaf (the specific leaf position needs to be combined with the actual situation) is 5.2g 5.4g 5.6g 5.8g 6.8g 7.2g7.9g 8.6g 9.8g 10.8g 11.6g12.6g 13.5g 14.3g 15.6g 14.2g13.6g 13.1g

[0040] Calculate the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety:

[0041] Take Yunyan 87 as an example:

[0042] Average leaf weight

[0043] =(5.2+5.4+5.6+5.8+6.8+7.2+7.9+8.6+9.8+10.8+11.6+12.6+13.5+14.3+15.6+14.2+13.6+13.1)÷18

[0044] =10.09g (18 is the average number of leaves of Yunyan 87 variety).

[0045] (4) Establish a dynamic prediction model for flue-cured tobacco yield in flue-cured tobacco planting areas:

[0046] Dynamic prediction result of flue-cured tobacco yield = theoretical flue-cured tobacco yield - yield reduction due to disasters - yield reduction due to abandoned lower leaves - yield reduction due to abandoned upper leaves. The yield reduction due to disasters refers to the yield reduction caused by natural disasters or pests and diseases.

[0047] a. Theoretical yield of flue-cured tobacco = yield of variety 1 + yield of variety 2 + yield of variety 3 + ...

[0048] Variety 1 yield = Variety 1 planting acres (acres) × Variety 1 plant number (plants) × Variety 1 average number of leaves (pieces) × Variety 1 average single leaf weight (grams);

[0049] Variety 2 yield = Variety 2 planting acres (acres) × Variety 2 plant number (plants) × Variety 2 average number of leaves (pieces) × Variety 2 average single leaf weight (grams);

[0050] Variety 3 yield = Variety 3 planting acres (acres) × Variety 3 plant number (plants) × Variety 3 average number of leaves (pieces) × Variety 3 average single leaf weight (grams);

[0051] …

[0052] b. The reduction in flue-cured tobacco yield due to disaster = the reduction in yield of variety 1 due to disaster + the reduction in yield of variety 2 due to disaster + the reduction in yield of variety 3 due to disaster + ...

[0053] The reduction in yield of variety 1 due to damage = the number of acres of variety 1 planted (acres) × the number of plants of variety 1 planted (plants) × the average number of leaves of variety 1 affected (pieces) × the average single leaf weight of damaged leaves of variety 1 (grams)

[0054] Average weight of damaged leaves = sum of average weight of damaged leaves at each leaf position / number of damaged leaves;

[0055] Taking Yunyan 87 as an example, the damaged leaves that year were the 15th, 16th, and 17th leaves from the bottom up. The average single leaf weight of the 15th leaf was 15.6g, the average single leaf weight of the 16th leaf was 14.2g, and the average single leaf weight of the 17th leaf was 13.6g. The average single leaf weight of the damaged leaves = (15.6+14.2+13.6) ÷ 3;

[0056] The reduction in yield of variety 2 due to damage = the number of acres of variety 2 planted (acres) × the number of plants of variety 2 planted (plants) × the average number of leaves of variety 2 affected (pieces) × the average weight of a single leaf of variety 2 affected (grams)

[0057] The reduction in yield of variety 3 due to damage = the number of acres of variety 3 planted (acres) × the number of plants of variety 3 planted (plants) × the average number of leaves of variety 3 affected (pieces) × the average weight of a single leaf of variety 3 affected (grams)

[0058] …

[0059] c. The reduction in yield due to discarding the lower leaves = the reduction in yield due to discarding the lower leaves of variety 1 + the reduction in yield due to discarding the lower leaves of variety 2 + the reduction in yield due to discarding the lower leaves of variety 3 + ...

[0060] The reduction in yield due to discarded lower leaves of variety 1 = number of acres of variety 1 planted (acres) × number of plants of variety 1 planted (plants) × average number of discarded lower leaves of variety 1 (pieces) × average single leaf weight of discarded lower leaves of variety 1 (grams)

[0061] The reduction in yield due to discarded lower leaves of variety 2 = number of acres of variety 2 planted (acres) × number of plants of variety 2 planted (plants) × average number of discarded lower leaves of variety 2 (pieces) × average single leaf weight of discarded lower leaves of variety 2 (grams)

[0062] The lower leaves that are discarded are generally the 1st / 2nd / 3rd / 4th / 5th leaves from the bottom to the top. Each flue-cured tobacco variety is discarded according to the growth of the tobacco plants that year. Some discard 3 leaves, some discard 4 leaves, and some discard 5 leaves. Taking Yunyan 87 as an example, if 4 leaves are discarded that year, the average single leaf weight of the 1st leaf position in the past years is 5.2g, the average single leaf weight of the 2nd leaf position in the past years is 5.4g, the average single leaf weight of the 3rd leaf position in the past years is 5.6g, and the average single leaf weight of the 4th leaf position in the past years is 5.8g. The average single leaf weight of the lower leaves discarded = (5.2+5.4+5.6+5.8)÷4;

[0063] The reduction in yield due to discarded lower leaves of variety 3 = number of acres of variety 3 planted (acres) × number of plants of variety 3 planted (plants) × average number of discarded lower leaves of variety 3 (pieces) × average single leaf weight of discarded lower leaves of variety 3 (grams)

[0064] …

[0065] d. The reduction in yield due to discarding the upper leaves = the reduction in yield due to discarding the upper leaves of variety 1 + the reduction in yield due to discarding the upper leaves of variety 2 + the reduction in yield due to discarding the upper leaves of variety 3 + ...

[0066] The reduction in yield due to discarded upper leaves of variety 1 = number of acres of variety 1 planted (acres) × number of plants of variety 1 planted (plants) × average number of discarded upper leaves of variety 1 (pieces) × average single leaf weight of discarded upper leaves of variety 1 (grams)

[0067] The upper leaves to be discarded are generally the 15th / 16th / 17th / 18th leaves from the bottom to the top. Each flue-cured tobacco variety is discarded according to the growth of the tobacco plants that year. Some discard 2 leaves, some discard 3 leaves, and some discard 4 leaves. Taking Yunyan 87 as an example, if 3 leaves are discarded that year, the average single leaf weight of the 18th leaf position in the past years is 13.1g, the average single leaf weight of the 17th leaf position in the past years is 13.6g, and the average single leaf weight of the 16th leaf position in the past years is 14.2g. The average single leaf weight of the upper leaves to be discarded = (14.2+13.6+13.1)÷3;

[0068] The reduction in yield due to discarded upper leaves of variety 2 = number of acres of variety 2 planted (acres) × number of plants of variety 2 planted (plants) × average number of discarded upper leaves of variety 2 (pieces) × average single leaf weight of discarded upper leaves of variety 2 (grams)

[0069] The reduction in yield of discarded upper leaves of variety 3 = number of acres of variety 3 planted (acres) × number of plants of variety 3 planted (plants) × average number of discarded upper leaves of variety 3 (pieces) × average single leaf weight of discarded upper leaves of variety 3 (grams)

[0070] …

[0071] (5) Model verification, the steps are as follows:

[0072] a In the flue-cured tobacco planting area, multiple sampling points are selected for each flue-cured tobacco variety of the year. The sampling points can represent the overall level of tobacco leaf production in the flue-cured tobacco planting area. Specifically, 20 sampling points are selected for flue-cured tobacco varieties with an output of more than 100,000 dan, 15 sampling points are selected for flue-cured tobacco varieties with an output of 50,000 to 100,000 dan, and 10 sampling points are selected for flue-cured tobacco varieties with an output of less than 50,000 dan. In principle, one sampling point is one tobacco farmer. Each sampling point uses the 5-point sampling method, and 20 flue-cured tobacco plants are selected at each of the 5 points, for a total of 100 plants for fixed-point monitoring and investigation.

[0073] b. Use the method of hanging signs to investigate and monitor each selected tobacco plant. After the lower part is treated with leaves that are not suitable for fresh tobacco, start hanging signs with the leaves that are actually baked and mark them with Arabic numerals. The leaf position coding rule is: start with the first leaf position coded as 1 and arrange in ascending order. For example: if there are 4 leaves that are not suitable for fresh tobacco treatment at the bottom, the leaf position corresponding to the first sign is the 5th leaf, coded as 5. When picking and baking, the signs must be carried out, the poles must be tied, and the leaves must be baked. Obtain the average single leaf weight of each leaf position of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the year, and calculate the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the year. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0074] Average single leaf weight of flue-cured tobacco varieties in the current year = sum of average single leaf weights of each leaf position of flue-cured tobacco varieties in the current year ÷ average number of leaves of flue-cured tobacco varieties in the current year;

[0075] c. Compare the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the current year with the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety calculated in step (3), and correct the average single leaf weight in the prediction model of step (4) by using the deviation ratio.

[0076] By inputting the flue-cured tobacco varieties, damaged leaves, number of discarded lower leaves, and number of discarded upper leaves at different periods of the year, the model automatically predicts the flue-cured tobacco yield. The prediction efficiency is high and it has great guiding significance for the allocation of flue-cured tobacco processing resources, especially for tobacco leaf purchasing.

[0077] The prediction accuracy is higher through model verification.

[0078] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solution of the present invention can be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the purpose and scope of the technical solution, which should be included in the scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for dynamic prediction of flue-cured tobacco yield based on GIS application, characterized by: It includes the following steps: (1) Use the GIS system to obtain the tobacco varieties planted in the tobacco planting area that year and the row spacing, plant spacing and acreage of each tobacco variety; (2) The GIS system calculates the number of plants of each flue-cured tobacco variety using the following formula: Number of plants planted = 667 ÷ row spacing ÷ plant spacing × acres; (3) The GIS system obtains the average single leaf weight of each leaf position of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the flue-cured tobacco planting area in the past years, and calculates the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety. The calculation formula is as follows: Average single leaf weight of flue-cured tobacco varieties = sum of average single leaf weights of each leaf position of flue-cured tobacco varieties ÷ average number of leaves of flue-cured tobacco varieties; (4) Establish a dynamic prediction model for flue-cured tobacco yield in flue-cured tobacco growing areas: Dynamic prediction result of flue-cured tobacco yield = theoretical flue-cured tobacco yield - yield reduction due to disasters - yield reduction due to abandoned lower leaves - yield reduction due to abandoned upper leaves; Theoretical yield of flue-cured tobacco = the sum of the yields of all flue-cured tobacco varieties; Flue-cured tobacco variety yield = mu × number of plants × average number of leaves × average single leaf weight; The reduction in flue-cured tobacco production due to disasters = the sum of the reduction in production of each flue-cured tobacco variety due to disasters; The yield reduction of flue-cured tobacco varieties affected by disasters = number of acres × number of plants × average number of damaged leaves × average single leaf weight of damaged leaves; Average single leaf weight of damaged leaves = sum of average single leaf weight of damaged leaves at each leaf position ÷ number of damaged leaves; The reduction in yield due to discarding the lower leaves = the sum of the reduction in yield due to discarding the lower leaves of each flue-cured tobacco variety; The yield reduction of discarded lower leaves of flue-cured tobacco varieties = mu × number of plants × average number of discarded lower leaves × average single leaf weight of discarded lower leaves; Average single leaf weight of abandoned lower leaves = sum of average single leaf weight of abandoned lower leaves at each leaf position ÷ number of abandoned lower leaves; The reduction in yield due to discarding the upper leaves = the sum of the reduction in yield due to discarding the upper leaves of each flue-cured tobacco variety; The yield reduction of discarded upper leaves of flue-cured tobacco varieties = mu × number of plants × average number of discarded upper leaves × average single leaf weight of discarded upper leaves; The average single leaf weight of the discarded upper leaves = the sum of the average single leaf weights of each leaf position of the discarded upper leaves ÷ the number of discarded upper leaves.

2. The method for dynamic prediction of flue-cured tobacco yield based on GIS application according to claim 1, characterized in that: It also includes (5) model validation, the steps are as follows: a. Select multiple sampling points for each flue-cured tobacco variety, and select multiple flue-cured tobacco plants for monitoring at each sampling point; b Monitoring method: label each selected flue-cured tobacco plant, implement label-based harvesting and curing, obtain the average single leaf weight of each leaf position of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the current year, and calculate the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the current year. The calculation formula is as follows: Average single leaf weight of flue-cured tobacco varieties in the current year = sum of average single leaf weights of each leaf position of flue-cured tobacco varieties in the current year ÷ average number of leaves of flue-cured tobacco varieties in the current year; c. Compare the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety in the current year with the average single leaf weight of each flue-cured tobacco variety calculated in step (3), and correct the average single leaf weight in the prediction model of step (4) by using the deviation ratio.

3. The method for dynamic prediction of flue-cured tobacco yield based on GIS application according to claim 2, characterized in that: At each sampling point, multiple flue-cured tobacco plants were selected for monitoring according to the 5-point sampling method.