Cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk grade assessment method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses a cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk grade assessment method and system, and particularly relates to the technical field of cattle and sheep breeding. Potential toxic substances in feed are accurately identified through sample detection and data analysis, a model for predicting the accumulation level of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep bodies is constructed by combining a biological enrichment abnormal index and a metabolic pathway deviation index, and the system can evaluate health risks of different toxic substances according to the model, so that the system can be used for predicting the accumulation level of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep bodies. According to the method, the safety risk of the feed is divided into a high level, a middle level and a low level, corresponding management measures are formulated, and when the risk level is middle, the system can further dynamically adjust the risk level and cope with possible high-risk evolution in real time, so that accurate and dynamic monitoring and effective management of the feed safety of cattle and sheep are realized, and the management efficiency is improved. And potential safety hazards caused by the fact that a static risk assessment system cannot deal with a long-term cumulative effect are avoided.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of cattle and sheep breeding, and in particular to a method and system for assessing the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed. Background Art

[0002] The safety risk level assessment of cattle and sheep feed refers to the process of grading and evaluating the safety risks that cattle and sheep feed may bring during the breeding process through a systematic method. This assessment aims to identify the potential safety hazards that may arise in the production, storage, transportation and use of feed, and analyze the impact of these risks on the health of cattle and sheep and the quality of the final agricultural products, thereby providing a scientific basis for breeding companies and regulatory authorities to help reduce the safety risks brought by feed.

[0003] During the assessment process, experts usually consider a variety of factors, such as whether the source of feed ingredients is compliant, the rationality of nutritional ingredients, and the content levels of harmful substances (such as mycotoxins, heavy metals and pesticide residues). The assessment results are generally divided into different risk levels, such as low, medium and high risks, so that farms can take appropriate measures accordingly. For example, high-risk feed may require more stringent testing or improved feed formulation, while low-risk feed can be used safely. Doing so can help safeguard the healthy development of animal husbandry, ensure the quality of cattle and sheep products and the food safety of consumers.

[0004] The prior art has the following deficiencies:

[0005] The current safety assessment methods for cattle and sheep feed mainly focus on acute toxicity, ignoring the cumulative effects of low-concentration chronic toxic substances after long-term intake. Although trace amounts of heavy metals, mycotoxins, and antibiotic residues in feed do not pose a significant threat to health in the short term, they will gradually accumulate in the bodies of cattle and sheep, and may eventually lead to chronic diseases or organ damage. However, the existing assessment system lacks an accurate prediction model for the cumulative effects of chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep, and cannot effectively predict the long-term effects of these chronic toxic substances. In addition, the risk level classification is usually static, lacking a dynamic adjustment mechanism and detailed management methods, making it difficult to respond in a timely manner to the high risks that chronic toxic substances may evolve under specific conditions, leading to safety hazards. Summary of the invention

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for assessing the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed, so as to overcome the deficiencies in the background technology.

[0007] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solution: a method for assessing the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed, comprising the following steps:

[0008] S1: Identify different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed through sample testing and data analysis. Low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues and environmental pollutants;

[0009] S2: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, obtain the abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances, build the accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep, and predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep;

[0010] S3: Based on the accumulation effect model, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are evaluated, and the safety risks of feed are divided into different levels according to the evaluation results, namely high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels;

[0011] S4: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as medium risk, further analysis is conducted on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted based on the analysis results.

[0012] Preferably, in S2, based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the abnormal bioaccumulation index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances is obtained, and the method for obtaining the abnormal bioaccumulation index is:

[0013] The factors affecting the bioaccumulation of toxic substances in cattle and sheep are defined as nodes in the Bayesian network, including intake I, absorption rate A, metabolic rate M, and excretion rate E. The concentration accumulation level of toxic substances is marked as C. A conditional probability table is set for each variable node to describe the value of the variable and its probability under the given parent node condition. According to the structure of the Bayesian network and the conditional probability table, the marginal probability of the accumulation level is solved by marginalization: P(C) = ∑ I ∑ A ∑ M ∑ E P(C|A,M,E)·P(A|I)·P(I)·P(M)·P(E); where P(C) represents the probability distribution of accumulation of toxic substances in the body; the normal accumulation range is set as C normal , calculate the abnormal bioaccumulation index, the expression is: Where BA is the bioaccumulation anomaly index.

[0014] Preferably, in S2, the low-concentration chronic toxic substances are identified, and the metabolic pathway deviation index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances is obtained. The method for obtaining the metabolic pathway deviation index is:

[0015] In the dynamic metabolic network model, the metabolite concentration C i The change equation of (t) is expressed as: Among them, C i (t) represents the concentration of metabolite i at time t, f i is the rate equation for the metabolic reaction, k i is the reaction rate constant, n is the total number of metabolites, and each f i Define based on chemical reaction kinetics, establish a dynamic model of toxic substances under normal metabolic conditions, and obtain normal metabolic parameters of toxic substances and its corresponding normal metabolite concentration changes The equation for the normal metabolic pathway is: Re-measurement of metabolic parameters of toxic substances and metabolite concentration changes The abnormal metabolic model was established, and the equation of the abnormal metabolic pathway was: To quantify the deviation between normal and abnormal metabolic pathways, the metabolic deviation D at time t was calculated. i (t), the expression is: The metabolic pathway deviation index MP is the integral value of all metabolite concentration deviations within the time range, and the calculation expression is: Where T is the total duration of the observation period and n is the number of metabolites.

[0016] Preferably, in S2, based on the obtained abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances, an accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed to predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep, wherein the accumulation effect model is a machine learning model, specifically:

[0017] The abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index are converted into comprehensive feature vectors, which are used as inputs of the machine learning model. The machine learning model uses each group of comprehensive feature vectors to predict the accumulation level value labels of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep as the prediction target, and takes minimizing the sum of prediction errors of the accumulation level value labels of all different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep as the training target. The machine learning model is trained until the sum of prediction errors converges, and the model training is stopped. The accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are determined according to the model output results, wherein the machine learning model is a polynomial regression model.

[0018] Preferably, in S3, the potential health risk of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep is evaluated according to the accumulation effect model, and the safety risk of feed is divided into different levels according to the evaluation results, namely, high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels, specifically:

[0019] The obtained accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are compared with the gradient standard threshold value, the gradient standard threshold value includes a first standard threshold value and a second standard threshold value, and the first standard threshold value is less than the second standard threshold value, and the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are compared with the first standard threshold value and the second standard threshold value respectively;

[0020] If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than the second standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of ingestion of chronic toxic substances by cattle and sheep is high. At this time, a first-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a high-risk level, and restrictive measures are taken immediately;

[0021] If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of ingestion of chronic toxic substances by cattle and sheep is medium. At this time, a secondary warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as medium risk level, and monitoring is strengthened to reduce the frequency of use;

[0022] If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is less than the first standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances is low. At this time, a third-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a low-risk level. The feed can continue to be used, but it should be checked regularly.

[0023] Preferably, in S4, when the safety risk level of the feed is classified as a medium risk level, a further analysis is performed on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, specifically:

[0024] When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as a medium risk level, that is, the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances generated within a fixed time period after ingestion by cattle and sheep are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold, the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances generated within a subsequent fixed time period after ingestion by cattle and sheep that are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold are collected, and a corresponding data set is established, the mean and standard deviation of the data set are calculated, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are further analyzed, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted according to the analysis results.

[0025] Preferably, if the mean value of the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances in the data set after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than or equal to the reference threshold value of the mean value of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold value of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the mean value of the accumulation level is high but the fluctuation is small, the risk level is raised to a high risk level and corresponding management measures are taken;

[0026] If the mean of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the mean of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the mean of the accumulation level is high but the standard deviation is large, the feed needs to be re-evaluated, temporarily maintained at the medium risk level, and the monitoring of accumulation fluctuations needs to be strengthened;

[0027] If the mean of the accumulated level value is less than the reference threshold of the mean of the accumulated level value, and the standard deviation of the accumulated level value is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulated level value, if the mean of the accumulated level value is low but the standard deviation is large, adjust the risk level to a high risk level and strengthen control measures;

[0028] If the mean accumulation level value is less than the reference threshold for the mean accumulation level value, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level value is less than the reference threshold for the standard deviation of the accumulation level value, if both the mean accumulation level value and the standard deviation are low, keep the feed at a low risk level and continue to monitor the accumulation level regularly.

[0029] The present invention also provides a cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level assessment system, comprising a data acquisition module, a model prediction module, a risk assessment module and a dynamic adjustment module;

[0030] Data collection module: Identify different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed through sample testing and data analysis. Low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues and environmental pollutants;

[0031] Model prediction module: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances are obtained respectively, and the accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed to predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep;

[0032] Risk assessment module: Based on the cumulative effect model, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are assessed. According to the assessment results, the safety risks of feed are divided into different levels, namely high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels;

[0033] Dynamic adjustment module: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as medium risk, further analysis is conducted on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted based on the analysis results.

[0034] In the above technical solution, the technical effects and advantages provided by the present invention are:

[0035] 1. The present invention solves the problem that the existing feed safety assessment system fails to consider the potential threat of long-term low-concentration toxic substances to the health of cattle and sheep by introducing the accumulation effect assessment of chronic toxic substances. Through sample testing and data analysis, low-concentration chronic toxic substances in feed, such as heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues, etc., are identified, and an accumulation effect model is constructed based on the abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index to predict the long-term accumulation level of these substances in cattle and sheep. The model, combined with machine learning technology, can accurately calculate the accumulation degree of chronic toxic substances and assess their health risks in real time.

[0036] 2. According to the evaluation results of the model, the present invention divides the feed safety risks into three levels: high, medium and low, and formulates corresponding management measures and usage restrictions according to different levels. In particular, in the evaluation of medium-risk feed, the system can dynamically collect and analyze accumulated data, calculate the mean and standard deviation of the accumulation level, and then adjust the risk level of the feed in real time. If the fluctuation of the accumulation level is small and the mean is high, the risk level will be raised to a high-risk level, and enhanced control measures will be taken; if the accumulation level has a low mean and large fluctuations, the risk level will be dynamically adjusted to ensure timely warning and appropriate management measures. This method can effectively prevent and control the long-term health hazards of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed, and improve breeding safety. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0037] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments recorded in the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can also be obtained based on these drawings.

[0038] Figure 1 The figure is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.

[0039] Figure 2 It is a system module diagram of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0040] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0041] Example 1, please refer to Figure 1 and Figure 2 As shown, the method for assessing the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed described in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0042] S1: Identify different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed through sample testing and data analysis. Low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues and environmental pollutants;

[0043] S2: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, obtain the abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances, build the accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep, and predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep;

[0044] S3: Based on the accumulation effect model, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are evaluated, and the safety risks of feed are divided into different levels according to the evaluation results, namely high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels;

[0045] S4: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as medium risk, further analysis is conducted on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted based on the analysis results.

[0046] In S1, different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed are identified through sample testing and data analysis. Low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues and environmental pollutants, specifically:

[0047] In the safety assessment of cattle and sheep feed, low-concentration chronic toxic substances in feed can be identified through sample testing and data analysis. These toxic substances include but are not limited to the following:

[0048] Heavy metals: Feed may contain trace amounts of heavy metals such as lead, cadmium, mercury and arsenic. These heavy metals may not immediately have an acute impact on the health of cattle and sheep at low concentrations, but they will accumulate in the body after long-term intake, eventually causing liver and kidney damage and may affect the animal's immune system.

[0049] Mycotoxins: Improper storage or transportation of feed may lead to mold contamination, resulting in the production of mycotoxins such as aflatoxins, zearalenone and ochratoxin. Even low concentrations of mycotoxins can interfere with the digestive and reproductive system functions of cattle and sheep after long-term accumulation, increasing the risk of infection.

[0050] Antibiotic residues: Due to the widespread use of antibiotics in animal husbandry, feed may also contain a small amount of antibiotic residues. Long-term low-dose antibiotic intake can cause pathogens in cattle and sheep to develop drug resistance, affect the balance of their intestinal flora, reduce immunity, and ultimately pose a threat to human health by spreading drug-resistant bacteria.

[0051] Environmental pollutants: Some industrial pollutants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other organic pollutants may enter the feed chain through the air, water or soil. These environmental pollutants are bioaccumulative even at low concentrations, and long-term accumulation in cattle and sheep will have potential chronic toxic effects on their health.

[0052] In this application, through scientific sample testing and data analysis, these low-concentration chronic toxic substances can be identified and monitored, thereby providing data support for the safety risk classification of feed and helping to formulate corresponding management measures to reduce their long-term health risks in cattle and sheep.

[0053] S2: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the bioaccumulation abnormality index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances are obtained respectively, and the accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed to predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep.

[0054] Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the abnormal bioaccumulation index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances is obtained. The method for obtaining the abnormal bioaccumulation index is as follows:

[0055] Define the factors affecting the bioaccumulation process of toxic substances in cattle and sheep as nodes in the Bayesian network, including: intake I, absorption rate A, metabolic rate M, excretion rate E, and mark the concentration accumulation level of toxic substances in specific organs or tissues as C;

[0056] Set a conditional probability table for each variable node to describe the possible values ​​of the variable and its probability under the given parent node conditions. For example: absorption rate P(A|I): the possible value of absorption rate A under the given intake I; accumulation level P(C|A,M,E): the possible value of accumulation level C under the conditions of absorption rate A, metabolic rate M, and excretion rate E. According to the structure of the Bayesian network and the conditional probability table, the marginal probability of the accumulation level is solved by marginalization: P(C) = ∑ I ∑ A ∑ M ∑ E P(C|A,M,E)·P(A|I)·P(I)·P(M)·P(E); where P(C) represents the probability distribution of accumulation of toxic substances in the body; the abnormal bioaccumulation index is an indicator to measure whether the accumulation level exceeds the normal range, and the normal accumulation range is set as C normal , calculate the abnormal bioaccumulation index, the expression is: Where BA is the bioaccumulation anomaly index.

[0057] The larger the abnormal bioaccumulation index, the more it indicates that the accumulation level of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep significantly exceeds the normal range, that is, there is abnormal enrichment. This means that there is a deviation in the intake, absorption, metabolism or excretion process of toxic substances, resulting in the continuous accumulation of toxic substances in the body. A high abnormal bioaccumulation index indicates that cattle and sheep may face greater chronic health risks, which will increase the possibility of organ damage, decreased immunity, chronic poisoning and other problems in the long run. This abnormal enrichment may require immediate management measures, such as adjusting feed ingredients or controlling intake frequency to reduce risks.

[0058] On the contrary, the smaller the abnormal bioaccumulation index, the higher the accumulation level of toxic substances in cattle and sheep, and the stable accumulation process conforms to the normal physiological metabolism pattern. A lower abnormal bioaccumulation index indicates that the concentration of toxic substances in cattle and sheep is within a safe range and poses less threat to health. This usually means that the toxic substances in the feed are effectively metabolized and excreted, and there is no risk of enrichment. A low abnormal bioaccumulation index generally indicates that the feed is safer and can continue to be used without the need for special intervention measures.

[0059] The low-concentration chronic toxic substances are identified, and the metabolic pathway deviation index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances is obtained. The method for obtaining the metabolic pathway deviation index is:

[0060] In the dynamic metabolic network model, the metabolite concentration C i The change of (t) can usually be expressed as a set of ordinary differential equations, which are expressed as follows: Among them, C i (t represents the concentration of metabolite i at time t, fi is the rate equation for the metabolic reaction, k i is the reaction rate constant, and n is the total number of metabolites. i Usually defined based on chemical reaction kinetics (such as the law of mass action). Establish a dynamic model of toxic substances under normal metabolic conditions. Obtain normal metabolic parameters of toxic substances through experimental data or literature. and its corresponding normal metabolite concentration changes The equation for the normal metabolic pathway is: Under certain conditions (e.g., increased toxicant intake or other environmental factors), re-measure metabolic parameters of the toxicant and metabolite concentration changes The abnormal metabolic model was established, and the equation of the abnormal metabolic pathway was: To quantify the deviation between normal and abnormal metabolic pathways, the metabolic deviation D at time t was calculated. i (t), the expression is: The metabolic pathway deviation index MP is the integral value of all metabolite concentration deviations within the time range, and the calculation expression is: Where T is the total duration of the observation period and n is the number of metabolites.

[0061] The larger the metabolic pathway deviation index, the more significant the deviation in the metabolic process of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep. Specifically, this indicates that the metabolite concentration has not been metabolized according to the normal physiological pathway, but may instead be over-accumulated, have a toxic reaction, or have abnormally transformed. For example, certain toxic substances may weaken the metabolic capacity of the liver or kidneys, resulting in the inability to effectively eliminate toxic substances, which are then enriched in the body. This situation typically increases the risk of chronic health problems, such as organ damage, immune system disorders, and even cancer. Therefore, a larger metabolic pathway deviation index typically means that chronic toxic substances accumulate at higher levels in cattle and sheep, and health risks increase accordingly.

[0062] On the contrary, the smaller the metabolic pathway deviation index is, the closer the metabolic process of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is to the normal physiological pattern, the changes in metabolite concentrations tend to be stable, and there is no abnormal enrichment. At this time, toxic substances can be processed according to normal metabolic pathways and effectively eliminated through the excretion system. A smaller metabolic pathway deviation index means that there is no significant accumulation of toxic substances and that the metabolic process in the body is in a healthy balance. This indicates that the health risks of cattle and sheep are lower, and the possibility of chronic poisoning or organ damage is lower, so the accumulation level of chronic toxic substances is lower.

[0063] Based on the bioaccumulation anomaly index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances obtained, an accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep was constructed to predict the accumulation levels of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep. The accumulation effect model is a machine learning model.

[0064] The abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index are converted into comprehensive feature vectors, which are used as inputs of the machine learning model. The machine learning model uses each group of comprehensive feature vectors to predict the accumulation level value labels of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep as the prediction target, and takes minimizing the sum of prediction errors of the accumulation level value labels of all different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep as the training target. The machine learning model is trained until the sum of prediction errors converges, and the model training is stopped. The accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are determined according to the model output results, wherein the machine learning model is a polynomial regression model.

[0065] The method for obtaining the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is as follows: from the comprehensive feature vector training data of the trained machine learning model, the corresponding function expression is obtained: LR=F(BA, MP); wherein F is the output function of the model, BA is the bioaccumulation anomaly index, MP is the metabolic pathway deviation index, and LR is the accumulation level value of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep.

[0066] S3: Based on the accumulation effect model, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are evaluated, and the safety risks of feed are divided into different levels according to the evaluation results, namely high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels.

[0067] The obtained accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are compared with the gradient standard threshold value, the gradient standard threshold value includes a first standard threshold value and a second standard threshold value, and the first standard threshold value is less than the second standard threshold value, and the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are compared with the first standard threshold value and the second standard threshold value respectively;

[0068] If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than the second standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of ingestion of chronic toxic substances by cattle and sheep is high. At this time, a first-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a high-risk level. Restrictive measures are immediately taken, such as prohibiting the use of the feed or sending it to a treatment facility for cleaning;

[0069] If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of ingestion of chronic toxic substances by cattle and sheep is medium. At this time, a secondary warning signal is generated and the feed is classified as medium risk. It is recommended to strengthen monitoring, reduce the frequency of use, ensure the health of cattle and sheep, and avoid long-term use;

[0070] If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is less than the first standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances is low. At this time, a third-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a low-risk level. The feed continues to be used, but it should be checked regularly to ensure that it does not exceed the safety threshold.

[0071] It should be noted here that the importance of the first-level warning signal is greater than that of the second-level warning signal, and the importance of the second-level warning signal is greater than that of the third-level warning signal. Relevant personnel can take corresponding handling measures according to different warning signal levels.

[0072] S4: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as medium risk, further analysis is conducted on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted based on the analysis results.

[0073] When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as a medium risk level, that is, the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances generated within a fixed time period after ingestion by cattle and sheep are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold, the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances generated within a subsequent fixed time period after ingestion by cattle and sheep that are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold are collected, and a corresponding data set is established, the mean and standard deviation of the data set are calculated, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are further analyzed, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted according to the analysis results.

[0074] If the mean value of the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances in the data set after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the mean value of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the mean value of the accumulation level is high but the fluctuation is small, it means that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep is high and relatively stable. At this time, it is possible to consider raising the risk level to a high risk level and taking corresponding management measures, such as strengthening monitoring or restricting use.

[0075] If the mean of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the mean of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the mean of the accumulation level is high but the standard deviation is large, it means that although the accumulation level is high, there may be large fluctuations in different time periods. This may mean that the risk is relatively unstable and the feed needs to be re-evaluated. It can be considered to temporarily maintain it at the medium risk level and strengthen the monitoring of accumulation fluctuations.

[0076] If the mean of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the mean of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the mean of the accumulation level is low but the standard deviation is large, it means that the accumulation level is low, but its fluctuation is large, which may lead to a sudden increase in the accumulation value in certain periods, and there is potential risk. At this time, it is recommended to further analyze the reasons for the fluctuation, and it may be necessary to adjust the risk level to a high risk level and strengthen control measures.

[0077] If the mean of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the mean of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if both the mean and standard deviation of the accumulation level are low, it means that the accumulation level of chronic toxic substances is low and stable. This usually means that the health risk is small. Consider keeping the feed at a low risk level and continue to monitor the accumulation level regularly.

[0078] In this embodiment, through sample testing and data analysis, low-concentration chronic toxic substances (such as heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues and environmental pollutants) in feed are identified, and an accumulation effect model is constructed based on these substances to predict their accumulation level in cattle and sheep. By calculating the abnormal bioaccumulation index and the metabolic pathway deviation index, the potential risk of chronic toxic substances to the health of cattle and sheep is evaluated, and the safety risk of feed is divided into high, medium and low levels according to the evaluation results, and corresponding management measures and use restrictions are formulated. When the risk level of the feed is medium risk, the accumulation level of chronic toxic substances in a fixed time period is further analyzed, and the safety and health protection of feed use are ensured by dynamically adjusting the risk level.

[0079] Embodiment 2, a cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level assessment system described in this embodiment includes a data acquisition module, a model prediction module, a risk assessment module and a dynamic adjustment module;

[0080] Data collection module: Identify different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed through sample testing and data analysis. Low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues and environmental pollutants;

[0081] Model prediction module: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances are obtained respectively, and the accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed to predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep;

[0082] Risk assessment module: Based on the cumulative effect model, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are assessed. According to the assessment results, the safety risks of feed are divided into different levels, namely high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels;

[0083] Dynamic adjustment module: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as medium risk, further analysis is conducted on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted based on the analysis results.

[0084] The above formulas are all dimensionless and numerical calculations. The formula is a formula for the most recent real situation obtained by collecting a large amount of data and performing software simulation. The preset parameters in the formula are set by technicians in this field according to actual conditions.

[0085] It should be understood that the term "and / or" in this article is only a description of the association relationship of associated objects, indicating that there can be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist at the same time, and B exists alone. A and B can be singular or plural. In addition, the character " / " in this article generally indicates that the associated objects before and after are in an "or" relationship, but it may also indicate an "and / or" relationship. Please refer to the context for specific understanding.

[0086] Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the units and algorithm steps of each example described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, or a combination of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professional and technical personnel can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to be beyond the scope of this application.

[0087] The above description is only a specific implementation manner of the present application, but the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereto. Any technician familiar with the technical field can easily think of changes or substitutions within the technical scope disclosed in the present application, which should be included in the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed, characterized in that: The steps include: S1: Identify different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed through sample testing and data analysis. Low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues and environmental pollutants; S2: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, obtain the abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances, build the accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep, and predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep; S3: Based on the accumulation effect model, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are evaluated, and the safety risks of feed are divided into different levels according to the evaluation results, namely high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels; S4: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as medium risk, further analysis is conducted on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted based on the analysis results.

2. A cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S2, based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the bioaccumulation abnormality index in different low-concentration chronic toxic substances is obtained. The method for obtaining the bioaccumulation abnormality index is: The factors affecting the bioaccumulation of toxic substances in cattle and sheep are defined as nodes in the Bayesian network, including intake I, absorption rate A, metabolic rate M, and excretion rate E. The concentration accumulation level of toxic substances is marked as C. A conditional probability table is set for each variable node to describe the value of the variable and its probability under the given parent node condition. According to the structure of the Bayesian network and the conditional probability table, the marginal probability of the accumulation level is solved by marginalization: P(C) = ∑ I ∑ A ∑ M ∑ E P(C|A,M,E)·P(A|I)·P(I)·P(M)·P(E); where P(C) represents the probability distribution of accumulation of toxic substances in the body; the normal accumulation range is set as C normal , calculate the abnormal bioaccumulation index, the expression is: Where BA is the bioaccumulation anomaly index.

3. A cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level assessment method according to claim 2, characterized in that: In S2, the low-concentration chronic toxic substances are identified, and the metabolic pathway deviation index among different low-concentration chronic toxic substances is obtained. The method for obtaining the metabolic pathway deviation index is: In the dynamic metabolic network model, the metabolite concentration C i The change equation of (t) is expressed as: Among them, C i (t) represents the concentration of metabolite i at time t, f i is the rate equation for the metabolic reaction, k i is the reaction rate constant, n is the total number of metabolites, and each f i Define based on chemical reaction kinetics, establish a dynamic model of toxic substances under normal metabolic conditions, and obtain normal metabolic parameters of toxic substances and its corresponding normal metabolite concentration changes The equation for the normal metabolic pathway is: Re-measurement of metabolic parameters of toxic substances and metabolite concentration changes The abnormal metabolic model was established, and the equation of the abnormal metabolic pathway was: To quantify the deviation between normal and abnormal metabolic pathways, the metabolic deviation D at time t was calculated. i (t), the expression is: The metabolic pathway deviation index MP is the integral value of all metabolite concentration deviations within the time range, and the calculation expression is: Where T is the total duration of the observation period and n is the number of metabolites.

4. A method for assessing the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed according to claim 3, characterized in that: In S2, based on the abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed to predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep. The accumulation effect model is a machine learning model, specifically: The abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index are converted into comprehensive feature vectors, which are used as inputs of the machine learning model. The machine learning model uses each group of comprehensive feature vectors to predict the accumulation level value labels of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep as the prediction target, and takes minimizing the sum of prediction errors of the accumulation level value labels of all different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep as the training target. The machine learning model is trained until the sum of prediction errors converges, and the model training is stopped. The accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are determined according to the model output results, wherein the machine learning model is a polynomial regression model.

5. A method for assessing the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed according to claim 4, characterized in that: In S3, based on the accumulation effect model, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are evaluated. According to the evaluation results, the safety risks of feed are divided into different levels, namely high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels, specifically: The obtained accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are compared with the gradient standard threshold value, the gradient standard threshold value includes a first standard threshold value and a second standard threshold value, and the first standard threshold value is less than the second standard threshold value, and the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep are compared with the first standard threshold value and the second standard threshold value respectively; If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than the second standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of ingestion of chronic toxic substances by cattle and sheep is high. At this time, a first-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a high-risk level, and restrictive measures are taken immediately; If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of ingestion of chronic toxic substances by cattle and sheep is medium. At this time, a secondary warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as medium risk level, and monitoring is strengthened to reduce the frequency of use; If the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep is less than the first standard threshold, it means that the potential health risk of cattle and sheep ingesting chronic toxic substances is low. At this time, a third-level warning signal is generated, and the feed is classified as a low-risk level. The feed can continue to be used, but it should be checked regularly.

6. A cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S4, when the safety risk level of feed is classified as medium risk, further analysis is conducted on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, specifically: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as a medium risk level, that is, the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances generated within a fixed time period after ingestion by cattle and sheep are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold, the accumulation level values ​​of different chronic toxic substances generated within a subsequent fixed time period after ingestion by cattle and sheep that are greater than or equal to the first standard threshold and less than or equal to the second standard threshold are collected, and a corresponding data set is established, the mean and standard deviation of the data set are calculated, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are further analyzed, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted according to the analysis results.

7. A method for assessing the safety risk level of cattle and sheep breeding feed according to claim 6, characterized in that: If the mean value of the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances in the data set after ingestion by cattle and sheep is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the mean value of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is less than the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the mean value of the accumulation level is high but the fluctuation is small, the risk level will be raised to a high risk level and corresponding management measures will be taken; If the mean of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the mean of the accumulation level, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulation level, if the mean of the accumulation level is high but the standard deviation is large, the feed needs to be re-evaluated, temporarily maintained at the medium risk level, and the monitoring of accumulation fluctuations needs to be strengthened; If the mean of the accumulated level value is less than the reference threshold of the mean of the accumulated level value, and the standard deviation of the accumulated level value is greater than or equal to the reference threshold of the standard deviation of the accumulated level value, if the mean of the accumulated level value is low but the standard deviation is large, adjust the risk level to a high risk level and strengthen control measures; If the mean accumulation level value is less than the reference threshold for the mean accumulation level value, and the standard deviation of the accumulation level value is less than the reference threshold for the standard deviation of the accumulation level value, if both the mean accumulation level value and the standard deviation are low, keep the feed at a low risk level and continue to monitor the accumulation level regularly.

8. A cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level assessment system, used to implement a cattle and sheep breeding feed safety risk level assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: It includes data collection module, model prediction module, risk assessment module and dynamic adjustment module; Data collection module: Identify different low-concentration chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep feed through sample testing and data analysis. Low-concentration chronic toxic substances include heavy metals, mycotoxins, antibiotic residues and environmental pollutants; Model prediction module: Based on the identified low-concentration chronic toxic substances, the abnormal bioaccumulation index and metabolic pathway deviation index of different low-concentration chronic toxic substances are obtained respectively, and the accumulation effect model of chronic toxic substances in cattle and sheep is constructed to predict the accumulation level of different chronic toxic substances after ingestion by cattle and sheep; Risk assessment module: Based on the cumulative effect model, the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep are assessed. According to the assessment results, the safety risks of feed are divided into different levels, namely high risk level, medium risk level and low risk level, and corresponding management measures and feed use restrictions are formulated for different risk levels; Dynamic adjustment module: When the safety risk level of the feed is classified as medium risk, further analysis is conducted on the potential health risks of chronic toxic substances ingested by cattle and sheep within a fixed time period, and the risk level of the feed is dynamically adjusted based on the analysis results.

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