Project risk management method, management system, equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a project risk management method and system, equipment and a storage medium. The method comprises the steps of generating a plurality of project risk assessment units in a target management project based on project data of a plurality of process links; taking each project risk assessment unit as a basic unit, performing project risk assessment in the project risk management model, and calculating corresponding project risk data; calculating corresponding risk vulnerability data in the project risk management model by taking each project risk assessment unit as a basic unit; the project risk risk data and the risk vulnerability data of each project risk assessment unit and the current project progress of the process link are based on the project risk risk data and the risk vulnerability data of each project risk assessment unit; obtaining an overall risk assessment result of the target management project; generating a project risk coping strategy according to the overall risk assessment result; the project risk coping strategy is adjusted and optimized based on the obtained risk assessment result updating instruction; according to the invention, the management effect of project risk management is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of project risk management, and in particular to a project risk management method, management system, equipment and storage medium. Background Art

[0002] Project risk management refers to the process of achieving project goals by predicting, evaluating, controlling and monitoring various uncertainties that arise in the project.

[0003] At present, a variety of risk management methods and tools have been developed in the field of project management, such as risk matrix and fault tree analysis, which are used to identify, evaluate and respond to potential risks in projects; however, the existing ones are usually carried out through regular risk assessment meetings and manually compiled risk management plans. Although these methods are effective, they have problems such as untimely information updates and strong subjectivity in risk assessment. Therefore, there is a defect that the management effect of project risk management is poor, and it is urgent to improve them. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to improve the management effect of project risk management, the present application provides a project risk management method, management system, equipment and storage medium.

[0005] In the first aspect, the invention objective of the present application is achieved by adopting the following technical solutions: A project risk management approach, comprising: Acquire project data of multiple process links of the target management project; generate a plurality of project risk assessment units in the target management project based on the project data of the multiple process links; Taking each project risk assessment unit as a basic unit, in a preset project risk management model, project risk assessment is performed according to preset risk assessment factors to obtain the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree, and the corresponding project risk hazard data is calculated according to the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree; Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, in the preset project risk management model, the corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to the preset risk tolerance factor; Based on the project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data and current project progress of the process link corresponding to each project risk assessment unit; obtaining the overall risk assessment results of the target management project; A project risk response strategy is generated according to the overall risk assessment result, and the project risk response strategy is used to obtain project risk monitoring information and project early warning information; the project risk response strategy is updated based on the risk assessment result obtained to perform corresponding adjustments and optimizations.

[0006] By adopting the above technical solution, in the process of risk assessment and management of the target management project, by obtaining the project data of multiple process links of the target management project, multiple project risk assessment units corresponding to the target management project are divided and generated, wherein the project risk assessment unit is based on the project monitoring data and / or project management data (collectively referred to as project data) of multiple process links, and may generate a risk assessment unit of project risk, which can well display the project data and project risk situation of each process node in the target management project. Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit of project risk assessment is conducive to improving the risk assessment accuracy of the target management project and the applicability of project management, thereby improving the management efficiency of the target management project; taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, the corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to the risk tolerance factor, and the corresponding risk vulnerability data calculated according to the risk tolerance factor is combined to obtain the corresponding overall risk. Evaluation results: In the process of project risk assessment management, the risk assessment scale is determined by the project risk assessment unit, and the risk assessment factor and risk tolerance factor are used to conduct risk assessment of the project risk assessment unit. The overall risk assessment result obtained is highly consistent with the risk result in actual project management, which improves the accuracy of potential risk assessment in the project. At the same time, a project risk response strategy is generated, that is, risk response measures are automatically generated. Suggestions, and risk monitoring and early warning functions are provided, which can obtain project risk monitoring information and project early warning information; further, in the process of project implementation, the overall risk assessment results of the target management project are dynamically updated through continuous and real-time acquisition of project data, and the project risk response strategy is adjusted according to the updated overall risk assessment results. Through dynamic updating and adjustment, the whole process of project risk management is realized, which effectively improves the project success rate of the target management project, thereby achieving the purpose of improving the management effect of project risk management.

[0007] In a preferred example of the present application: the project data of multiple process links of the target management project are obtained; based on the project data of the multiple process links, a plurality of project risk assessment units are generated in the target management project, specifically including: performing data preprocessing on the project data of multiple process links of the target management project to obtain preprocessed project data; and establishing a dependency network diagram between the multiple process links based on the preprocessed project data; Calculate a critical path according to the dependency network diagram, and generate an initial project risk assessment unit based on the critical path; The initial project risk assessment unit is modified according to the preprocessed project data to form a final project risk assessment unit.

[0008] By adopting the above technical solution, data preprocessing includes processing methods such as denoising, smoothing and repairing null values ​​to improve the precision and accuracy of subsequent analysis of project risk assessment units. A dependency network between multiple process links of the target management project is established through the preprocessed project data. The dependency relationship refers to the logical relationship between the direct project activities and non-project activities of each process link. The dependency network diagram refers to a graphical representation of the logical relationship (referring to the dependency relationship) between all activities in the project and multiple process links, including the task sequence and project time sequence of the process content and work content in each process link; then the initial project risk assessment unit is corrected according to the preprocessed project data (i.e., the actual risk status of the target project data) to obtain the final project risk assessment unit with unstable project risk areas and greater risk threats.

[0009] In a preferred example of the present application, each project risk assessment unit is taken as a basic unit. In a preset project risk management model, a project risk assessment is performed according to a preset risk assessment factor to obtain the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree, specifically including: The risk assessment factors include technical complexity, time urgency, resource availability, and external environmental impact; Divide the target management project according to the process links, determine all the process links involved in the single project risk assessment unit, assign values ​​to each process link in the single project risk assessment unit according to the risk assessment factor, and obtain the risk assessment score; The risk assessment scores of all process links involved in a single project risk assessment unit are weighted averaged to calculate the risk assessment factor discrimination score of the single project risk assessment unit, and the probability of project risk occurrence and the degree of risk impact are calculated using the risk assessment factor discrimination score and the comprehensive index method.

[0010] By adopting the above technical scheme, the target management project is divided according to the process links. After all the process links involved in a single project risk assessment unit are determined, each process link in the single project risk assessment unit is assigned according to four risk assessment factors. In actual application, different numbers of risk assessment factors can be obtained according to different types of target management projects. This application takes engineering construction projects as an example, and calculates the risk assessment factor discrimination score of a single project risk assessment unit by taking a weighted average of the risk assessment scores of all the process links involved in a single project risk assessment unit. The comprehensive index analysis method sets a weight value for each risk assessment factor corresponding to the actual risk occurrence impact ratio, so as to calculate the probability of project risk occurrence and the degree of risk impact, so as to facilitate the subsequent project risk hazard analysis of each project risk assessment unit.

[0011] In a preferred example of the present application, the corresponding project risk hazard data is calculated according to the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree, specifically including: Acquire historical project case data, and acquire historical risk event information and failure probability data of a project risk assessment unit based on the historical project case data; the historical risk event information includes risk event probability, risk event level, and corresponding risk event priority; The project risk criticality data is calculated based on the probability of occurrence of the project risk and the degree of risk impact, combined with the historical risk event information and failure probability data of the project risk assessment unit.

[0012] By adopting the above technical solution, project risk hazard data refers to the possibility of a certain scale and type of project risk occurring within a certain project scope within a certain period of time under certain inducing factors. By acquiring historical project case data, historical risk event information and failure probability data are analyzed, wherein historical project case data refers to historical management data of project risks such as project risks and improper management that have occurred in the project, and failure probability data refers to the probability of risk management failure in multiple process nodes involved in the project risk assessment unit. The project risk hazard data of the project risk assessment unit is calculated through the project risk hazard analysis method, the probability of project risk occurrence, the degree of risk impact, combined with historical risk event information and failure probability data, to realize the function of performing hazard analysis on the project risks corresponding to the project risk assessment unit.

[0013] In a preferred example of the present application, the obtaining of historical project case data and obtaining historical risk event information and failure probability data of a project risk assessment unit based on the historical project case data specifically includes: Based on the historical project case data, historical risk event occurrence time data, risk event impact loss data, and risk event handling effect data are obtained; the historical risk event occurrence time data includes the start time point and the end time point of the historical risk event; The historical risk event information and failure probability data of the project risk assessment unit are determined based on the historical risk event occurrence time data, risk event impact loss data and risk event handling effect data.

[0014] By adopting the above technical solution, based on the data of the time of occurrence of historical risk events, the actual project progress of the project based on the actual target management and the impact of the actual project progress between different process nodes on the assessment of the probability of failure are evaluated. At the same time, the adverse effects and economic and property losses caused by the historical risk events are evaluated in combination with the risk event impact loss data. The handling effect of historical risk events is analyzed based on the risk event disposal effect data, so as to provide data support for the subsequent formulation of project risk response strategies with more efficient management, more reasonable disposal measures and higher applicability, which is conducive to improving the management effect of project risk management.

[0015] In a preferred example of the present application, each project risk assessment unit is taken as a basic unit, and in a preset project risk management model, corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to a preset risk tolerance factor, including: The risk tolerance factors include personnel technical capabilities, risk management awareness, risk control measures, risk transfer capabilities, and risk reserve ratio; Divide the target management project according to the participating entities, determine all participating entities involved in a single project risk assessment unit, assign a value to each participating entity in the single project risk assessment unit according to the risk tolerance factor, and obtain a risk tolerance score; The risk tolerance scores of all participating entities involved in a single project risk assessment unit are weighted averaged to calculate the risk tolerance factor discrimination score of the single project risk assessment unit, and the risk vulnerability data is calculated using the risk tolerance factor discrimination score and the comprehensive index method.

[0016] By adopting the above technical solution, the target management project is divided according to the participating entities, and all participating entities involved in a single project risk assessment unit are determined. Then, each participating entity is assigned a value according to the risk tolerance factor, so that multiple risk tolerance factors are associated with weight values, and the weight value ratio of each risk tolerance factor is set according to the actual project situation; the risk tolerance score is obtained, and the comprehensive index method is adopted in the next step. The risk vulnerability data is calculated using the obtained risk tolerance factor discrimination score and the comprehensive index method to realize the function of risk vulnerability analysis of project risk management for the project risk assessment unit.

[0017] In a preferred example of the present application, the project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data and current project progress of the process link corresponding to each project risk assessment unit are obtained; the overall risk assessment result of the target management project is obtained, specifically including: Taking each of the project risk assessment units as a basic unit, the corresponding project risk hazard data is used as row vector data, and the corresponding risk vulnerability data is used as column vector data, and is input into a preset project risk discrimination matrix to obtain corresponding project risk level data; the project risk discrimination matrix divides the risk level according to the risk hazard and risk vulnerability; According to the project risk level data of each of the project risk assessment units, combined with the current project progress of the process links, the overall risk assessment result of the target management project is obtained; the overall risk assessment result includes the current risk level of the target management project and the risk prediction level within a certain time range in the future.

[0018] By adopting the above technical solution, the corresponding project risk hazard data is used as row vector data and the corresponding risk vulnerability data is used as column vector data, which are input into the preset project risk discrimination matrix to analyze the corresponding project risk level data, and the overall risk assessment result of the target management project is analyzed based on the project risk level data of each project risk assessment unit and the current project progress of the process link, so as to achieve the risk assessment function of the target management project.

[0019] In the second aspect, the invention objective of the present application is achieved by adopting the following technical solutions: A project risk management system, the system comprising: A project risk assessment unit construction module is used to obtain project data of multiple process links of a target management project; and generate a plurality of project risk assessment units in the target management project based on the project data of the multiple process links; The project risk hazard analysis module is used to take each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, and in the preset project risk management model, perform project risk assessment according to the preset risk assessment factors, obtain the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree, and calculate the corresponding project risk hazard data according to the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree; The project risk vulnerability analysis module is used to calculate the corresponding risk vulnerability data based on the preset risk tolerance factor in the preset project risk management model, taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit; The overall project risk assessment module is used to obtain the overall risk assessment results of the target management project based on the project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data and current project progress of the process link corresponding to each project risk assessment unit; The risk response strategy construction and optimization module is used to generate a project risk response strategy based on the overall risk assessment results. The project risk response strategy is used to obtain project risk monitoring information and project early warning information. The project risk response strategy is based on the obtained risk assessment results to update instructions and make corresponding adjustments and optimizations.

[0020] By adopting the above technical solution, in the process of risk assessment and management of the target management project, by obtaining the project data of multiple process links of the target management project, multiple project risk assessment units corresponding to the target management project are divided and generated, wherein the project risk assessment unit is based on the project monitoring data and / or project management data (collectively referred to as project data) of multiple process links, and may generate a risk assessment unit of project risk, which can well display the project data and project risk situation of each process node in the target management project. Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit of project risk assessment is conducive to improving the risk assessment accuracy of the target management project and the applicability of project management, thereby improving the management efficiency of the target management project; taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, the corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to the risk tolerance factor, and the corresponding risk vulnerability data calculated according to the risk tolerance factor is combined to obtain the corresponding overall risk. Evaluation results: In the process of project risk assessment management, the risk assessment scale is determined by the project risk assessment unit, and the risk assessment factor and risk tolerance factor are used to conduct risk assessment of the project risk assessment unit. The overall risk assessment result obtained is highly consistent with the risk result in actual project management, which improves the accuracy of potential risk assessment in the project. At the same time, a project risk response strategy is generated, that is, risk response measures are automatically generated. Suggestions, and risk monitoring and early warning functions are provided, which can obtain project risk monitoring information and project early warning information; further, in the process of project implementation, the overall risk assessment results of the target management project are dynamically updated through continuous and real-time acquisition of project data, and the project risk response strategy is adjusted according to the updated overall risk assessment results. Through dynamic updating and adjustment, the whole process of project risk management is realized, which effectively improves the project success rate of the target management project, thereby achieving the purpose of improving the management effect of project risk management.

[0021] In the third aspect, the invention objective of the present application is achieved by adopting the following technical solutions: A computer device comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of the above-mentioned project risk management method when executing the computer program.

[0022] In a fourth aspect, the invention objective of the present application is achieved by adopting the following technical solutions: A computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above-mentioned project risk management method are implemented.

[0023] In summary, the present application includes at least one of the following beneficial technical effects: 1. In the process of risk assessment and management of the target management project, by obtaining the project data of multiple process links of the target management project, multiple project risk assessment units corresponding to the target management project are divided and generated, wherein the project risk assessment unit is based on the project monitoring data and / or project management data (collectively referred to as project data) of multiple process links, and may generate risk assessment units of project risks, which can well display the project data and project risk status of each process node in the target management project. Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit of project risk assessment is conducive to improving the risk assessment accuracy of the target management project and the applicability of project management, thereby improving the management efficiency of the target management project; taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, the corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to the risk tolerance factor, and the corresponding risk vulnerability data calculated according to the risk tolerance factor is combined to obtain the corresponding overall risk assessment result. In the process of project risk assessment management, the project risk assessment unit is used to determine the risk assessment scale, and the risk assessment factor and risk tolerance factor are used to conduct risk assessment of the project risk assessment unit. The overall risk assessment result obtained is highly consistent with the risk result in actual project management, which improves the accuracy of potential risk assessment in the project. At the same time, a project risk response strategy is generated, that is, risk response measures are automatically generated. Suggestions, and risk monitoring and early warning functions are provided, which can obtain project risk monitoring information and project early warning information; further, during the project implementation process, the overall risk assessment results of the target management project are dynamically updated through continuous and real-time acquisition of project data, and the project risk response strategy is adjusted according to the updated overall risk assessment results. Through dynamic updating and adjustment, the whole process of project risk management is realized, which effectively improves the project success rate of the target management project, thereby achieving the purpose of improving the management effect of project risk management; 2. Data preprocessing includes denoising, smoothing and repairing null values ​​to improve the precision and accuracy of subsequent analysis of project risk assessment units. The dependency network between multiple process links of the target management project is established through the preprocessed project data. The dependency relationship refers to the logical relationship between the direct project activities and non-project activities of each process link. The dependency network diagram refers to a graphical representation of the logical relationship (referring to the dependency relationship) between all activities in the project and multiple process links, including the task sequence and project time sequence of the process content and work content in each process link; then, the initial project risk assessment unit is revised according to the preprocessed project data (i.e., the actual risk status of the target project data) to obtain the final project risk assessment unit with unstable project risk areas and greater risk threats; 3. Divide the target management project according to the process links, determine all the process links involved in a single project risk assessment unit, and then assign values ​​to each process link in the single project risk assessment unit according to the four risk assessment factors. In actual application, different numbers of risk assessment factors can be obtained according to the different types of target management projects. This application takes engineering construction projects as an example, and calculates the risk assessment factor discrimination score of a single project risk assessment unit by taking a weighted average of the risk assessment scores of all the process links involved in a single project risk assessment unit. The comprehensive index analysis method sets a weight value for each risk assessment factor corresponding to the actual risk impact ratio, so as to calculate the probability of project risk occurrence and the degree of risk impact, so as to facilitate the subsequent project risk hazard analysis of each project risk assessment unit. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0024] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a project risk management method in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 2 It is a flowchart of step S1 in a project risk management method in one embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0025] The present application is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0026] In one embodiment, if Figure 1 As shown, the present application discloses a project risk management method, which specifically includes the following steps: S1: Obtain project data of multiple process links of the target management project; generate several project risk assessment units in the target management project based on the project data of multiple process links.

[0027] In this embodiment, multiple process links are determined based on the project type of the target management project. Taking the construction project type as an example, multiple standard process links include planning, preliminary scientific research, engineering consulting, engineering investigation, engineering design, cost consulting, engineering bidding, engineering supervision, pre-construction preparation, construction process management, completion acceptance, engineering settlement, engineering final accounts and operation warranty. The project risk assessment unit is a risk assessment unit that may generate project risks based on project monitoring data and / or project management data (collectively referred to as project data) of multiple process links. It can well display the project data and project risk status of each process node in the target management project. Using each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit of project risk assessment is conducive to improving the risk assessment accuracy of the target management project and the applicability of project management, thereby improving the management efficiency of the target management project.

[0028] S2: Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, in the preset project risk management model, perform project risk assessment according to the preset risk assessment factors to obtain the corresponding project risk probability and risk impact degree; calculate the corresponding project risk hazard data according to the corresponding project risk probability and risk impact degree.

[0029] In this embodiment, risk assessment factors include technical complexity, deadline urgency, resource availability, external environmental impact, etc. The risk assessment factors can be increased or decreased according to the actual project situation of the target management project. The proportion of each risk assessment factor in project risk assessment is set through a weight value.

[0030] S3: Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, in the preset project risk management model, the corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to the preset risk tolerance factor.

[0031] S4: Based on the project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data and current project progress of the process links corresponding to each project risk assessment unit; obtain the overall risk assessment results of the target management project.

[0032] In this embodiment, each project risk assessment unit is taken as a basic unit, and the corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to the risk tolerance factor. The corresponding risk vulnerability data calculated according to the risk tolerance factor is combined to obtain the corresponding overall risk assessment result. In the process of project risk assessment management, the project risk assessment unit is used to determine the risk assessment scale, and the risk assessment factor and risk tolerance factor are used to conduct risk assessment of the project risk assessment unit. The overall risk assessment result obtained is highly consistent with the risk result in actual project management, which improves the accuracy of potential risk assessment in the project.

[0033] S5: Generate a project risk response strategy based on the overall risk assessment results. The project risk response strategy is used to obtain project risk monitoring information and project early warning information. The project risk response strategy updates instructions based on the obtained risk assessment results to make corresponding adjustments and optimizations.

[0034] Specifically, the project risk response strategy includes risk response plan, risk avoidance measures, etc. The project risk response strategy provides risk monitoring and early warning functions.

[0035] In this embodiment, during the project implementation process, the overall risk assessment results of the target management project are dynamically updated through continuous and real-time acquisition of project data, and the project risk response strategy is adjusted according to the updated overall risk assessment results. Through dynamic updating and adjustment, the whole process of project risk management is realized, which effectively improves the project success rate of the target management project, thereby achieving the purpose of improving the management effect of project risk management.

[0036] In one embodiment, if Figure 2 As shown, in step S1, project data of multiple process links of the target management project are obtained; based on the project data of multiple process links, several project risk assessment units are generated in the target management project, specifically including: S11: Preprocessing the project data of multiple process links of the target management project to obtain preprocessed project data.

[0037] In this embodiment, data preprocessing includes denoising, smoothing, and repairing null values ​​to improve the precision and accuracy of subsequent analysis of the project risk assessment unit.

[0038] S12: Establish a dependency network diagram between multiple process links based on the pre-processed project data.

[0039] In this embodiment, dependency refers to the logical relationship between direct project activities and non-project activities in each process link. The dependency network diagram refers to a graphical representation of the logical relationship (referring to dependency) between all activities in the project and multiple process links. The dependency network diagram contains the task sequence and project time sequence of the process content and work content in each process link.

[0040] S13: Calculate the critical path according to the dependency network diagram, and generate an initial project risk assessment unit based on the critical path.

[0041] S14: Modify the initial project risk assessment unit according to the preprocessed project data to form a final project risk assessment unit.

[0042] Specifically, the initial project risk assessment unit is modified according to the preprocessed project data (ie, the actual risk status of the target project data) to obtain the final project risk assessment unit with unstable project risk areas and greater risk threats.

[0043] In one embodiment, in step S2, taking each project risk assessment unit as a basic unit, in a preset project risk management model, a project risk assessment is performed according to a preset risk assessment factor to obtain the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree, specifically including: S21: Risk assessment factors include technical complexity, deadline urgency, resource availability, and external environmental impact.

[0044] Specifically, the target management project is divided according to the process links. After all the process links involved in a single project risk assessment unit are determined, each process link in the single project risk assessment unit is assigned according to four risk assessment factors. In actual application, different numbers of risk assessment factors can be obtained according to different types of target management projects.

[0045] S22: Divide the target management project according to the process links, determine all the process links involved in the risk assessment unit of a single project, assign values ​​to each process link in the risk assessment unit of a single project according to the risk assessment factor, and obtain the risk assessment score.

[0046] S23: Take a weighted average of the risk assessment scores of all process links involved in a single project risk assessment unit, calculate the risk assessment factor discrimination score of the single project risk assessment unit, and use the risk assessment factor discrimination score and the comprehensive index method to calculate the probability of project risk occurrence and the degree of risk impact.

[0047] In this embodiment, taking engineering construction projects as an example, the risk assessment factor discrimination score of a single project risk assessment unit is calculated by taking a weighted average of the risk assessment scores of all process links involved in a single project risk assessment unit, wherein the comprehensive index analysis method sets a weight value for each risk assessment factor corresponding to the actual risk occurrence impact ratio to calculate the probability of project risk occurrence and the degree of risk impact, so as to facilitate the subsequent project risk hazard analysis of each project risk assessment unit.

[0048] In one embodiment, in step S2, the corresponding project risk hazard data is calculated according to the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree, specifically including: S201: Acquire historical project case data, and acquire historical risk event information and failure probability data of a project risk assessment unit based on the historical project case data; the historical risk event information includes risk event probability, risk event level, and corresponding risk event priority.

[0049] In this embodiment, the historical project case data refers to the historical management data of project risks such as project risks and improper management that have occurred in the project history, and the failure probability data refers to the probability of risk management failure occurring in multiple process nodes involved in the risk assessment unit of the project.

[0050] S202: Calculate the project risk hazard data based on the probability of project risk occurrence and the degree of risk impact, combined with the historical risk event information and failure probability data of the project risk assessment unit.

[0051] In this embodiment, the project risk danger data refers to the data of project risks of a certain scale and type occurring within a certain project scope in a certain period of time under certain inducing factors.

[0052] Specifically, the project risk hazard data of the project risk assessment unit is calculated through project risk hazard analysis method, project risk occurrence probability, risk impact degree, combined with historical risk event information and failure probability data, to realize the function of hazard analysis of the project risks corresponding to the project risk assessment unit.

[0053] For example, the project risk hazard data H is calculated according to Formula 1: H=Y*Y max *P*P i *I / I max (1) Where Y is the project risk susceptibility index of the project risk assessment unit, Y max is the maximum project risk susceptibility index value, which is set using a constant coefficient. For example, if the value is 5, P is the failure probability of the project risk assessment unit, and P i is the probability of occurrence of project risk in the project risk assessment unit, i is the unit identifier of the project risk assessment unit, so as to distinguish different project risk assessment units; I is the actual risk impact value, I max The maximum risk impact index.

[0054] Where Y is calculated according to formula (2): Where j is the risk assessment factor, F j is the weight value of the j-th risk assessment factor in the project risk assessment unit, S j is the risk assessment factor discrimination score of the j-th risk assessment factor in the project risk assessment unit, and n is the number of risk assessment factors in the project risk assessment unit. In this embodiment, the value is 4.

[0055] In one embodiment, in step S201, historical project case data is obtained, and historical risk event information and failure probability data of a project risk assessment unit are obtained based on the historical project case data, specifically including: S2011: Based on historical project case data, obtain historical risk event occurrence time data, risk event impact loss data and risk event handling effect data; historical risk event occurrence time data includes the start time point and end time point of the historical risk event.

[0056] S2012: Determine the historical risk event information and failure probability data of the project risk assessment unit based on the historical risk event occurrence time data, risk event impact loss data and risk event handling effect data.

[0057] In this embodiment, based on the data on the time of occurrence of historical risk events, the actual project progress based on the actual target management project and the impact of the actual project progress between different process nodes on the assessed probability of failure are evaluated. At the same time, the adverse effects and economic and property losses caused by the historical risk events are evaluated in combination with the risk event impact loss data. The handling effect of historical risk events is analyzed based on the risk event handling effect data, so as to provide data support for the subsequent formulation of project risk response strategies with more efficient management, more reasonable handling measures and higher applicability, which is conducive to improving the management effect of project risk management.

[0058] In one embodiment, in step S3, taking each project risk assessment unit as a basic unit, in a preset project risk management model, the corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to a preset risk tolerance factor, including: S31: Divide the target management project according to the participating entities, determine all participating entities involved in a single project risk assessment unit, assign a value to each participating entity in the single project risk assessment unit according to the risk tolerance factor, and obtain a risk tolerance score.

[0059] In this embodiment, the risk tolerance factors include personnel technical capabilities, risk management awareness, risk control measures, risk transfer capabilities, and risk reserve ratios.

[0060] S32: Take a weighted average of the risk tolerance scores of all participating entities involved in a single project risk assessment unit, calculate the risk tolerance factor discrimination score of the single project risk assessment unit, and use the risk tolerance factor discrimination score and the comprehensive index method to calculate the risk vulnerability data.

[0061] Specifically, the target management project is divided according to the participating entities, and all participating entities involved in a single project risk assessment unit are determined. Then, each participating entity is assigned a value according to the risk tolerance factor, so that multiple risk tolerance factors are associated with weight values, and the weight value ratio of each risk tolerance factor is set according to the actual project situation; the risk tolerance score is obtained, and the comprehensive index method is used in the next step. The risk vulnerability data is calculated using the obtained risk tolerance factor discrimination score and the comprehensive index method to realize the function of risk vulnerability analysis of project risk management for the project risk assessment unit.

[0062] For example, the risk vulnerability data Y of the project risk assessment unit ′ Calculated using formula 3: Where Y ′ is the risk vulnerability data of the project risk assessment unit, is the weight value of the j-th risk tolerance factor in the project risk assessment unit, and s j is the discrimination score of the j-th risk tolerance factor in the project risk assessment unit, and n is the number of risk tolerance factors in the project risk assessment unit. In this embodiment, the value is 5.

[0063] In one embodiment, in step S4, based on the project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data and current project progress of the process link corresponding to each project risk assessment unit, the overall risk assessment result of the target management project is obtained, specifically including: S41: Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, the corresponding project risk hazard data is used as the row vector data, and the corresponding risk vulnerability data is used as the column vector data, and they are input into the preset project risk discrimination matrix to obtain the corresponding project risk level data; the project risk discrimination matrix divides the risk level according to the risk hazard and risk vulnerability.

[0064] S42: Based on the project risk level data of each project risk assessment unit and combined with the current project progress of the process link, the overall risk assessment result of the target management project is obtained; the overall risk assessment result includes the current risk level of the target management project and the risk prediction level within a certain time range in the future.

[0065] Specifically, the corresponding project risk hazard data is used as row vector data and the corresponding risk vulnerability data is used as column vector data, and are input into the preset project risk discrimination matrix to analyze the corresponding project risk level data, and the overall risk assessment results of the target management project are analyzed based on the project risk level data of each project risk assessment unit and the current project progress of the process link, so as to achieve the risk assessment function of the target management project.

[0066] It should be understood that the serial numbers of the steps in the above embodiments do not imply a sequence of execution. The execution sequence of each process should be determined by its function and internal logic, and should not constitute any limitation on the implementation process of the embodiments of the present application.

[0067] In one embodiment, a project risk management system is provided, which corresponds to a project risk management method in the above embodiment.

[0068] A project risk management system includes a project risk assessment unit construction module, a project risk hazard analysis module, a project risk vulnerability analysis module, a project overall risk assessment module, and a risk response strategy construction and optimization module. The detailed description of each functional module is as follows: The project risk assessment unit construction module is used to obtain project data of multiple process links of the target management project; based on the project data of multiple process links, several project risk assessment units are generated in the target management project; The project risk hazard analysis module is used to take each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, and in the preset project risk management model, perform project risk assessment according to the preset risk assessment factors, obtain the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree, and calculate the corresponding project risk hazard data according to the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree; The project risk vulnerability analysis module is used to calculate the corresponding risk vulnerability data based on the preset risk tolerance factor in the preset project risk management model, taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit; The overall project risk assessment module is used to obtain the overall risk assessment results of the target management project based on the project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data and current project progress of the process link corresponding to each project risk assessment unit; The risk response strategy construction and optimization module is used to generate project risk response strategies based on the overall risk assessment results. The project risk response strategies are used to obtain project risk monitoring information and project early warning information. The project risk response strategies update instructions based on the obtained risk assessment results to make corresponding adjustments and optimizations.

[0069] For the specific definition of the project risk management system, please refer to the definition of a project risk management method in the above text, which will not be repeated here; each module in the above-mentioned project risk management system can be implemented in whole or in part through software, hardware and their combination; each of the above-mentioned modules can be embedded in or independent of the processor in the computer device in the form of hardware, or can be stored in the memory of the computer device in the form of software, so that the processor can call and execute the corresponding operations of each of the above modules.

[0070] In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, which may be a server. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, a network interface and a database connected via a system bus. The processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The database of the computer device is used to store project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data, overall risk assessment results and project risk response strategies, etc. The network interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal via a network connection. When the computer program is executed by the processor, a project risk management method is implemented.

[0071] In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the following steps when executing the computer program: S1: Obtain project data of multiple process links of the target management project; generate several project risk assessment units in the target management project based on the project data of multiple process links; S2: Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, in the preset project risk management model, perform project risk assessment according to the preset risk assessment factors to obtain the corresponding project risk probability and risk impact degree; calculate the corresponding project risk hazard data according to the corresponding project risk probability and risk impact degree; S3: Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, in the preset project risk management model, the corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to the preset risk tolerance factor; S4: Based on the project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data and current project progress of each project risk assessment unit, obtain the overall risk assessment results of the target management project; S5: Generate a project risk response strategy based on the overall risk assessment results. The project risk response strategy is used to obtain project risk monitoring information and project early warning information. The project risk response strategy updates instructions based on the obtained risk assessment results to make corresponding adjustments and optimizations.

[0072] In one embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the following steps are implemented: S1: Obtain project data of multiple process links of the target management project; generate several project risk assessment units in the target management project based on the project data of multiple process links; S2: Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, in the preset project risk management model, perform project risk assessment according to the preset risk assessment factors to obtain the corresponding project risk probability and risk impact degree; calculate the corresponding project risk hazard data according to the corresponding project risk probability and risk impact degree; S3: Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, in the preset project risk management model, the corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to the preset risk tolerance factor; S4: Based on the project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data and current project progress of each project risk assessment unit, obtain the overall risk assessment results of the target management project; S5: Generate a project risk response strategy based on the overall risk assessment results. The project risk response strategy is used to obtain project risk monitoring information and project early warning information. The project risk response strategy updates instructions based on the obtained risk assessment results to make corresponding adjustments and optimizations.

[0073] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a computer program, and the computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the above-mentioned methods. Among them, any reference to memory, storage, database or other media used in the embodiments provided in this application can include non-volatile and / or volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), programmable ROM (PROM), electrically programmable ROM (EPROM), electrically erasable programmable ROM (EEPROM) or flash memory. Volatile memory can include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory. As an illustration and not limitation, RAM is available in many forms, such as static RAM (SRAM), dynamic RAM (DRAM), synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), double data rate SDRAM (DDRSDRAM), enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), synchronous link (Synchlink) DRAM (SLDRAM), memory bus (Rambus) direct RAM (RDRAM), direct memory bus dynamic RAM (DRDRAM), and memory bus dynamic RAM (RDRAM).

[0074] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that for the convenience and simplicity of description, only the division of the above-mentioned functional units and modules is used as an example. In actual applications, the above-mentioned functions can be distributed and completed by different functional units and modules as needed, that is, the internal structure of the device can be divided into different functional units or modules to complete all or part of the functions described above.

[0075] The embodiments described above are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than to limit them. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments may still be modified, or some of the features thereof may be replaced by equivalents. Such modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, and should all be included in the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A project risk management method, characterized in that: include: Obtain project data for multiple process links of the target management project; Generate a plurality of project risk assessment units in the target management project based on the project data of the plurality of process links; Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, in the preset project risk management model, project risk assessment is performed according to the preset risk assessment factors to obtain the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree; Calculate the corresponding project risk hazard data according to the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree; Taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, in the preset project risk management model, the corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to the preset risk tolerance factor; Based on the project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data and current project progress of each project risk assessment unit; Obtain the overall risk assessment results of the target management project; A project risk response strategy is generated according to the overall risk assessment result, and the project risk response strategy is used to obtain project risk monitoring information and project early warning information; the project risk response strategy is updated based on the risk assessment result obtained to perform corresponding adjustments and optimizations.

2. A project risk management method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The project data of multiple process links of the target management project are obtained; Based on the project data of the multiple process links, a plurality of project risk assessment units are generated in the target management project, specifically including: Preprocessing the project data of multiple process links of the target management project to obtain preprocessed project data; Establishing a dependency network diagram between a plurality of the process links based on the preprocessed project data; Calculate a critical path according to the dependency network diagram, and generate an initial project risk assessment unit based on the critical path; The initial project risk assessment unit is modified according to the preprocessed project data to form a final project risk assessment unit.

3. A project risk management method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Taking each project risk assessment unit as a basic unit, in the preset project risk management model, the project risk assessment is performed according to the preset risk assessment factors to obtain the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree, specifically including: The risk assessment factors include technical complexity, time urgency, resource availability, and external environmental impact; Divide the target management project according to the process links, determine all the process links involved in the single project risk assessment unit, assign values ​​to each process link in the single project risk assessment unit according to the risk assessment factor, and obtain the risk assessment score; The risk assessment scores of all process links involved in a single project risk assessment unit are weighted averaged to calculate the risk assessment factor discrimination score of the single project risk assessment unit, and the probability of project risk occurrence and the degree of risk impact are calculated using the risk assessment factor discrimination score and the comprehensive index method.

4. A project risk management method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The corresponding project risk hazard data is calculated according to the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree, specifically including: Acquire historical project case data, and acquire historical risk event information and failure probability data of a project risk assessment unit based on the historical project case data; the historical risk event information includes risk event probability, risk event level, and corresponding risk event priority; The project risk criticality data is calculated based on the probability of occurrence of the project risk and the degree of risk impact, combined with the historical risk event information and failure probability data of the project risk assessment unit.

5. A project risk management method according to claim 4, characterized in that: The acquiring of historical project case data, and acquiring historical risk event information and failure probability data of a project risk assessment unit based on the historical project case data, specifically includes: Based on the historical project case data, historical risk event occurrence time data, risk event impact loss data, and risk event handling effect data are obtained; the historical risk event occurrence time data includes the start time point and the end time point of the historical risk event; The historical risk event information and failure probability data of the project risk assessment unit are determined based on the historical risk event occurrence time data, risk event impact loss data and risk event handling effect data.

6. A project risk management method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The above-mentioned project risk assessment unit is taken as a basic unit, and in the preset project risk management model, the corresponding risk vulnerability data is calculated according to the preset risk tolerance factor, including: The risk tolerance factors include personnel technical capabilities, risk management awareness, risk control measures, risk transfer capabilities, and risk reserve ratio; Divide the target management project according to the participating entities, determine all participating entities involved in a single project risk assessment unit, assign a value to each participating entity in the single project risk assessment unit according to the risk tolerance factor, and obtain a risk tolerance score; The risk tolerance scores of all participating entities involved in a single project risk assessment unit are weighted averaged to calculate the risk tolerance factor discrimination score of the single project risk assessment unit, and the risk vulnerability data is calculated using the risk tolerance factor discrimination score and the comprehensive index method.

7. A project risk management method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data and current project progress of the process links corresponding to each project risk assessment unit; Obtain the overall risk assessment results of the target management project, including: Taking each of the project risk assessment units as a basic unit, the corresponding project risk hazard data is used as row vector data, and the corresponding risk vulnerability data is used as column vector data, and is input into a preset project risk discrimination matrix to obtain corresponding project risk level data; the project risk discrimination matrix divides the risk level according to the risk hazard and risk vulnerability; According to the project risk level data of each of the project risk assessment units, combined with the current project progress of the process links, the overall risk assessment result of the target management project is obtained; the overall risk assessment result includes the current risk level of the target management project and the risk prediction level within a certain time range in the future.

8. A project risk management system, characterized in that: The system comprises: A project risk assessment unit construction module is used to obtain project data of multiple process links of a target management project; and generate a plurality of project risk assessment units in the target management project based on the project data of the multiple process links; The project risk hazard analysis module is used to take each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit, and in the preset project risk management model, perform project risk assessment according to the preset risk assessment factors, obtain the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree, and calculate the corresponding project risk hazard data according to the corresponding project risk occurrence probability and risk impact degree; The project risk vulnerability analysis module is used to calculate the corresponding risk vulnerability data based on the preset risk tolerance factor in the preset project risk management model, taking each project risk assessment unit as the basic unit; The overall project risk assessment module is used to obtain the overall risk assessment results of the target management project based on the project risk hazard data, risk vulnerability data and current project progress of the process link corresponding to each project risk assessment unit; The risk response strategy construction and optimization module is used to generate a project risk response strategy based on the overall risk assessment results. The project risk response strategy is used to obtain project risk monitoring information and project early warning information. The project risk response strategy is based on the obtained risk assessment results to update instructions and make corresponding adjustments and optimizations.

9. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of a project risk management method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of a project risk management method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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