Ship propulsion mode-based voyage prediction method and device

Abstract

The invention discloses a voyage prediction method and device based on a ship propulsion mode, and relates to the technical field of ship navigation control. The voyage prediction method based on the ship propulsion mode comprises the steps that the real-time remaining sailing mileage of a ship in the ship propulsion mode is calculated; constructing a voyage prediction correction model; and correcting the real-time remaining sailing mileage of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining sailing mileage of the ship. By constructing the voyage prediction correction model and correcting the real-time remaining sailing mileage of the ship through the voyage prediction correction model, quantitative evaluation of voyage prediction of the ship is realized, so that the prediction precision of the remaining sailing mileage is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of ship navigation control, and in particular to a method and device for predicting a voyage based on a ship propulsion mode. Background Art

[0002] The mission is the "original intention" of the ship, and its successful execution is the primary goal of the ship during navigation. The remaining navigable mileage is a key factor affecting the execution of the mission. Accurately predicting the remaining voyage is crucial to ensure that the crew or the ship's mission system can effectively evaluate the mission execution capability, reasonably plan and complete subsequent tasks. However, a quantitative evaluation system for the remaining navigable mileage of ships has not yet been established. Summary of the invention

[0003] Purpose of the invention: An embodiment of the present application provides a voyage prediction method based on a ship propulsion mode, aiming to overcome the technical problem in the prior art of lack of quantitative evaluation of the remaining navigable mileage of a ship; another purpose of an embodiment of the present application is to provide a voyage prediction device based on a ship propulsion mode.

[0004] Technical solution: A method for predicting a range based on a ship propulsion mode described in an embodiment of the present application is applied to a ship control system, and the method includes:

[0005] Calculate the remaining navigable distance of the ship in real time under the ship propulsion mode;

[0006] Constructing a voyage prediction and correction model;

[0007] The real-time remaining navigable range of the ship is corrected according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable range of the ship.

[0008] In some embodiments, the calculating of the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode includes:

[0009] Obtain the current speed, current remaining fuel load and real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode;

[0010] The real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is calculated according to the current speed of the ship in the ship propulsion mode, the current remaining fuel load and the real-time fuel consumption rate.

[0011] In some embodiments, the calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode according to the current speed of the ship in the ship propulsion mode, the current remaining fuel load, and the real-time fuel consumption rate includes:

[0012] Calculate the current remaining sailing time of the ship in the ship propulsion mode according to the current remaining fuel load and the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode;

[0013] The real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is calculated according to the current remaining navigable time of the ship in the ship propulsion mode and the current speed of the ship in the ship propulsion mode.

[0014] In some embodiments, the vessel control system includes a plurality of oil consuming devices;

[0015] The calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is:

[0016]

[0017] Among them, A 实时 is the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; ρ is the fuel density; n is the number of fuel-consuming equipment in the ship propulsion mode; A in A is the oil inlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment; out It is the oil outlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment.

[0018] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction correction model includes at least one of a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model.

[0019] In some embodiments, when the voyage prediction correction model includes two or more of: a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model, the order of correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model is: the historical data correction model, the real-time environmental data correction model, and the collaborative ship data correction model.

[0020] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the historical data correction model is:

[0021]

[0022] Among them, D 校正1 is the remaining distance after correction by the historical data correction model; D 1 The real-time remaining mileage; D 历史 is the average value of historical voyage data; ΔD 历史 is the error of historical voyage data; α is the correction coefficient of historical data.

[0023] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the real-time environmental data correction model is:

[0024]

[0025] Among them, D 校正2 is the remaining range after correction by the real-time environmental data correction model; D 2 is the real-time remaining voyage distance or the remaining voyage distance after correction by the historical data correction model; β is the environmental impact coefficient; E 实时 is the real-time environmental factor; E 基准 The baseline environmental factor.

[0026] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the collaborative ship data correction model is:

[0027]

[0028] Among them, D 校正3 is the remaining distance after correction by the collaborative ship data correction model; D 3 is the real-time remaining navigable mileage or the remaining voyage after correction by the historical data correction model, or the remaining voyage after correction by the real-time environmental data correction model, or the remaining voyage after correction by the historical data correction model and the real-time environmental data correction model in sequence; γ is the synergistic influence coefficient; is the average remaining range of the coordinated ships.

[0029] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction method based on the ship propulsion mode further includes:

[0030] Obtain the total historical fuel consumption, total mileage and current remaining fuel load;

[0031] Obtaining the average fuel consumption efficiency of the entire ship according to the total historical fuel consumption and the total sailing mileage;

[0032] The average remaining navigable mileage of the ship is obtained based on the average fuel consumption efficiency of the entire ship and the current remaining fuel loading.

[0033] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction method based on the ship propulsion mode further includes:

[0034] The average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under various operating conditions is calculated according to the calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate under the ship propulsion mode;

[0035] And according to the average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under various operating conditions and the corresponding operating conditions, the operating condition and average fuel consumption efficiency curve are constructed.

[0036] Accordingly, a range prediction device based on a ship propulsion mode according to an embodiment of the present application is applied to a ship control system, and the device includes:

[0037] A calculation module, used for calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode;

[0038] A model building module is used to build a voyage prediction and correction model;

[0039] The correction module is used to correct the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable range of the ship.

[0040] Beneficial effects: Compared with the prior art, the voyage prediction method and device based on the ship propulsion mode of the embodiment of the present application includes: calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship under the ship propulsion mode; constructing a voyage prediction correction model; correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship. By constructing a voyage prediction correction model and correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship through the voyage prediction correction model, a quantitative evaluation of the ship's voyage prediction is achieved, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the remaining navigable mileage. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0041] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application, the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0042] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting a voyage based on a ship propulsion mode provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0043] Figure 2 It is a principle structural block diagram of a voyage prediction device based on a ship propulsion mode provided in an embodiment of the present application.

[0044] Reference numerals:

[0045] 101 - calculation module; 102 - model building module; 103 - correction module; 100 - voyage prediction device based on ship propulsion mode. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0046] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be described clearly and completely below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present application, rather than all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present application.

[0047] It should be understood that although the terms first, second, etc. may be used herein to describe various components, these components should not be limited by these terms. These terms are used to distinguish one component from another component. Therefore, the first component discussed below can be referred to as the second component without departing from the teachings of the concepts of the present application. As used herein, the term "and / or" includes any one of the associated listed items and all combinations of one or more.

[0048] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the drawings are only schematic diagrams of example embodiments and may not be to scale. The modules or processes in the drawings are not necessarily required to implement the present application and therefore cannot be used to limit the scope of protection of the present application.

[0049] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for predicting a range based on a ship propulsion mode provided in an embodiment of the present application. The method can be applied to a ship control platform to accurately predict the remaining navigable range of a ship in a propulsion mode. The method can be executed by a device for predicting a range based on a ship propulsion mode, which can be implemented by software and / or hardware, and can be configured in a processor of a ship control platform. Figure 1 , the method comprises the following steps:

[0050] Step 110: Calculate the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode.

[0051] The ship propulsion mode refers to the state of a ship traveling in water. In the ship propulsion mode, fuel consumption can be used to achieve propulsion.

[0052] Step 120: construct a flight range prediction and correction model.

[0053] Since the ship propulsion mode is also affected by factors such as the water environment, weather, and other ships, the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is usually not accurate. Therefore, the real-time remaining navigable mileage needs to be corrected to improve the accuracy of the remaining navigable mileage prediction. Therefore, a voyage prediction correction model is constructed.

[0054] Step 130: Correct the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable range of the ship.

[0055] Specifically, the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is calculated, and it is corrected through the voyage prediction correction model, so as to calculate the actual remaining navigable range of the ship (i.e., the target remaining navigable range), realize the quantitative evaluation of the ship's voyage prediction, improve the accuracy of the voyage prediction, and provide accurate and reliable voyage data for ship navigation.

[0056] In the technical solution of this embodiment, the working principle of the voyage prediction method based on the ship propulsion mode is as follows: Figure 1 First, the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is calculated. Then, a voyage prediction correction model is constructed. Finally, the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship is corrected according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship. It can be seen that by constructing a voyage prediction correction model and correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship through the voyage prediction correction model, a quantitative evaluation of the ship's voyage prediction is achieved, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the remaining navigable mileage and providing accurate and reliable voyage data for ship navigation.

[0057] In some embodiments, the calculation process of the real-time remaining navigable mileage of a ship in the ship propulsion mode is: obtaining the current speed V, the current remaining fuel loading C and the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage S of the ship in the ship propulsion mode according to the current speed V, the current remaining fuel loading C and the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode.

[0058] The current speed of the ship in the ship propulsion mode can be obtained in real time from the ship's speed detection system or sensor. The current remaining fuel load of the ship can be obtained from the ship's fuel meter or fuel monitoring sensor.

[0059] In some embodiments, the implementation process of calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage S of the ship in the ship propulsion mode according to the current speed V, the current remaining fuel loading C and the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is as follows: calculating the current remaining navigable time T of the ship in the ship propulsion mode according to the current remaining fuel loading C and the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage S of the ship in the ship propulsion mode according to the current remaining navigable time T of the ship in the ship propulsion mode and the current speed V of the ship in the ship propulsion mode.

[0060] Among them, the calculation formula for the current remaining navigable time T of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is:

[0061]

[0062] The calculation formula for the real-time remaining navigable mileage S of a ship in the ship propulsion mode is:

[0063] S=V×T

[0064] Among them, the unit of the current remaining fuel load C is ton (t); the unit of the current remaining sailing time T is hour (h); the unit of the current speed V of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is knot (kn).

[0065] In some embodiments, the ship control system includes a plurality of fuel consumption devices; the calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is:

[0066]

[0067] Among them, A 实时 is the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; ρ is the fuel density; n is the number of fuel-consuming equipment in the ship propulsion mode; A in A is the oil inlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment; out It is the oil outlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment.

[0068] Among them, the real-time fuel consumption rate A of each fuel-consuming equipment i The calculation formula is:

[0069] A i =A in -A out

[0070] Among them, A i The unit is cubic meter per hour (m3 / h); the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode A 实时 The unit is tons per hour (t / h).

[0071] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction correction model includes at least one of a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model.

[0072] The voyage prediction correction model includes one or more correction models, such as at least one of a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model. The correction models that the specific voyage prediction correction model needs to include can be set according to actual conditions and are not specifically limited here.

[0073] In some embodiments, when the voyage prediction correction model includes two or more of: a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model, the order of correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model is: historical data correction model, real-time environmental data correction model, and collaborative ship data correction model.

[0074] Among them, when the voyage prediction correction model includes two or more of the historical data correction model, the real-time environmental data correction model and the collaborative ship data correction model, the voyage prediction correction model is a correction model based on multidimensional data.

[0075] Among them, the correction order of each model is: historical data correction model, real-time environmental data correction model, and collaborative ship data correction model. For example, when the voyage prediction correction model only includes the historical data correction model and the real-time environmental data correction model, the process of correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model is: first input the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode into the historical data correction model for correction, and input the correction result into the real-time environmental data correction model for re-correction, and the correction result is the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0076] For example, when the voyage prediction correction model only includes the historical data correction model and the collaborative ship data correction model, the process of correcting the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model is as follows: first, the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is input into the historical data correction model for correction, and the correction result is input into the collaborative ship data correction model for further correction, and the correction result is obtained, which is the target remaining navigable range of the ship.

[0077] For example, when the voyage prediction correction model only includes the real-time environmental data correction model and the collaborative ship data correction model, the process of correcting the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model is as follows: first, the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is input into the real-time environmental data correction model for correction, and the correction result is input into the collaborative ship data correction model for further correction, and the correction result is obtained, which is the target remaining navigable range of the ship.

[0078] For example, when the voyage prediction correction model includes a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model and a collaborative ship data correction model, the process of correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model is as follows: first, the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is input into the historical data correction model for correction, and the correction result is input into the real-time environmental data correction model for re-correction, and the correction result obtained from the re-correction is input into the collaborative ship data correction model for a third correction, and the result of the third correction is the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0079] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the historical data correction model is:

[0080]

[0081] Among them, D 校正1 is the remaining distance after correction by the historical data correction model (in nautical miles); D 1 is the real-time remaining navigable mileage (in nautical miles); D 历史 is the average value of historical voyage data, that is, the average value of multiple historical actual voyage values ​​(in nautical miles); ΔD 历史 is the error of historical voyage data; α is the correction coefficient of historical data.

[0082] Among them, D 1 is the real-time remaining navigable mileage, that is, the real-time remaining navigable mileage S of the ship in the ship propulsion mode obtained by the above calculation.

[0083] The historical data correction coefficient α is used to balance the impact of historical data on the correction result, and its value range is [0, 1].

[0084] The error of historical voyage data is the difference between the historical predicted value and the historical actual voyage value, that is:

[0085] ΔD 历史 =D 历史预测 -D 历史实际

[0086] Among them, D 历史预测 is the historical prediction value, that is, the voyage prediction result under similar historical circumstances. 历史实际 It is the actual historical voyage value, that is, the actual voyage data under similar historical circumstances.

[0087] Specifically, when the correction model only includes the historical data correction model, the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship is corrected to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship as follows: first, obtain historical data, that is, collect historical voyage prediction values ​​and historical actual voyage values ​​under similar conditions. Then, calculate the error of the historical voyage data. Secondly, calculate the average value of the historical voyage data. Finally, the real-time remaining navigable mileage S (i.e., D 1 ) is input into the calculation formula of the historical data correction model for correction, and the corrected voyage prediction value is obtained, which is the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0088] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the real-time environmental data correction model is:

[0089]

[0090] Among them, D 校正2 is the remaining distance after correction by the real-time environmental data correction model (in nautical miles); D 2is the real-time remaining voyage distance or the remaining distance after correction by the historical data correction model (in nautical miles); β is the environmental impact coefficient; E 实时 is the real-time environmental factor; E 基准 The baseline environmental factor.

[0091] The environmental impact coefficient is used to indicate the degree of influence of real-time environmental factors on the correction results, and its value range is [0, 1].

[0092] Among them, the real-time environmental factor indicates the comprehensive impact of the current environment on the ship's navigation. It can be obtained by comprehensively considering the following key environmental factors:

[0093] E 实时 =w 1 ·f 1 (V 风 )+w 2 ·f 2 (H 浪 )+w 3 ·f 3 (V 流 )+w 4 ·f 4 (T 气温 )+w 5 ·f 5 (P 气压 )+w 6 ·f 6 (S 盐度 )

[0094] Among them, V 风 is wind speed (unit: m / s); H 浪 is the wave height (unit: m); V 流 is the ocean current speed (unit: m / s); T 气温 is the air temperature (unit: ℃); P 气压 is the air pressure (unit: hPa); S 盐度 is the salinity of seawater (unit: PSU).

[0095] The calculation formulas for each key environmental factor are as follows:

[0096] f 1 (V 风 )=1+α 1 ·(V 风 -V 风标准 )

[0097] f 2 (H 浪 )=1+α 2 ·(H 浪 -H 浪标准 ) 2

[0098] f 3 (V 流 )=1+α 3 ·(V 流 -V 流标准 )

[0099] f 4 (T 气温 )=1+α 4 ·(T 气温 -T 气温标准 )

[0100] f 5 (P 气压 )=1+α 5 ·(P 气压 -P 气压标准 )

[0101] f 6 (S 盐度 )=1+α 6 ·(S 盐度 -S 盐度标准 )

[0102] The baseline environmental factor represents the degree of environmental impact under ideal conditions (usually taken as the environmental factor under conditions of good weather and calm sea conditions). The calculation method of the baseline environmental factor is as follows:

[0103] In calculating E 基准 When calculating the voyage, environmental factors that affect the ship's voyage, such as wind speed, waves, ocean currents, temperature, air pressure and salinity, are taken into account. 基准 It reflects the impact of these environmental factors on the navigation performance of the ship under standard conditions. According to the state of these parameters under standard environmental conditions, a weighted average or linear combination model can be established to calculate E 基准 The following is the specific comprehensive calculation method.

[0104] First, a correction factor formula under a standard environment is constructed, and all environmental parameters are expressed by weighted and linear combination methods:

[0105] E 基准 =g(V 风标准 , H 浪标准 , V 流标准 , T 气温标准 , P 气压标准 , S 盐度标准 )

[0106] Among them, V 风标准 is the standard wind speed (unit: m / s); H 浪标准 is the standard wave height (unit: m); V 流标准is the standard ocean current speed (unit: m / s); T 气温标准 is the standard temperature (unit: ℃); P 气压标准 is the standard atmospheric pressure (unit: hPa); S 盐度标准 is the standard salinity (unit: PSU, practical salinity unit).

[0107] Among them, these standard values ​​represent environmental parameters under benchmark conditions. For example, wind speed can be taken as a common average value, and sea current speed can be no current or weak current speed.

[0108] Then, a linear weighted model is established to model the impact of various environmental factors under standard conditions as a weighted linear combination. Assuming that the impact of each parameter on ship performance is linear, the following formula can be used:

[0109] E 基准 =w 1 ·f 1 (V 风标准 )+w 2 ·f 2 (H 浪标准 )+w 3 ·f 3 (V 流标准 )+w 4 ·f 4 (T 气温标准 )+w 5 ·f 5 (P 气压标准 )+w 6 ·f 6 (S 盐度标准 )

[0110] Among them, w 1 , w 2 , w 3 , w 4 , w 5 , w 6 It is the weight coefficient of each environmental factor, indicating the importance of each factor on the ship's navigation performance.

[0111] Among them, f 1 , f 2 , f 3 , f 4 , f 5 , f 6 is the influence function of each environmental parameter, indicating its influence on the ship's navigation performance.

[0112] Then, the standard impact model of each environmental parameter on the ship performance is established respectively. Among them, the wind speed is usually set to no wind or light wind (e.g. 3-5m / s) under standard conditions. The standard impact function of wind speed is:

[0113] f 1 (V 风标准 )=1+α 1 ·(V 风标准 -0)

[0114] Among them, α 1 The wind speed influence coefficient indicates the effect of wind speed on ship resistance. It is usually determined through wind tunnel tests or empirical data. The standard wind speed is generally small, so the effect on speed and fuel consumption can be considered linear.

[0115] The standard value of wave height can be set as no wave or low wave (e.g. 0.5-1m). The wave influence function can be modeled as:

[0116] f 2 (H 浪标准 )=1+α 2 (H 浪标准 -0) 2

[0117] Among them, α 2 is the influence coefficient of wave height, which is usually determined by the interaction between waves and the hull. The influence of wave height on ship navigation is nonlinear, especially in large wave conditions.

[0118] Among them, the ocean current velocity can be set to no current or weak current velocity (e.g. 0 m / s) under standard conditions. Its influence function is:

[0119] f 3 (V 流标准 )=1+α 3 ·(V 流标准 -0)

[0120] Among them, α 3 is the influence coefficient of ocean current speed. The standard value of ocean current is usually set to no current, so the direct impact on ships is not significant.

[0121] The standard condition of air temperature can be set to normal temperature (e.g. 20°C). Its influence function can be:

[0122] f 4 (T 气温标准 )=1+α 4 ·(T 气温标准 -0)

[0123] Among them, α 4 is the temperature influence coefficient. Under normal temperature conditions, the impact of temperature on ship engines and navigation performance is relatively small.

[0124] The standard value of air pressure is the common average air pressure (e.g. 1013hPa). Its influence function is:

[0125]

[0126] Among them, α 5 It is the air pressure influence coefficient, which reflects the impact of air pressure changes on air density and engine performance.

[0127] The standard salinity is usually set to the ocean average (about 35 PSU). The influence function of salinity can be modeled as:

[0128] f 6 (S 盐度标准 )=1+α 6 ·(S 盐度标准 -0)

[0129] Among them, α 6 is the salinity influence coefficient, which reflects the effect of salinity on the buoyancy and resistance of the hull.

[0130] Finally, the weighted combination is performed, and the standard values ​​of each environmental parameter are substituted into the influence function to obtain the final E 基准 .

[0131] Among them, the weight of each environmental factor is w 1 , w 2 , w 3 , w 4 , w 5 , w 6 It can be determined by the following methods. The first is the empirical method: estimate the importance of each environmental factor through the ship's navigation experience. The second is historical data analysis: based on a large amount of navigation data, use regression or machine learning models to determine the weight of each factor's impact on the voyage. The third is simulation model optimization: calculate the ship's voyage under different environmental conditions through simulation and adjust the weight coefficient.

[0132] In summary, through weighted average or linear combination model, E 基准 The impact of standard values ​​of environmental factors such as wind speed, waves, ocean currents, temperature, air pressure and salinity on ship navigation is comprehensively considered.

[0133] Specifically, when the correction model only includes the real-time environmental data correction model, the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship is corrected to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship. The implementation process is as follows: First, obtain real-time environmental data: obtain real-time data in the current environment through the perception system on the ship, including wind speed, wave height, current speed, etc. Then, calculate the real-time environmental factor, substitute the real-time data into the environmental factor calculation formula, and obtain the real-time environmental factor. Secondly, determine the baseline environmental factor. The baseline environmental factor is usually set as a reference value under ideal weather and sea conditions, which is calculated and fixed in advance. Finally, correct the real-time prediction, that is, the real-time remaining navigable mileage S (i.e., D 2 ) is input into the calculation formula of the real-time environmental correction model for correction, and the corrected voyage prediction value is obtained, which is the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0134] Specifically, when the correction model includes a historical data correction model and a real-time environmental data correction model, the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship is corrected to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship as follows: first, historical data is obtained, that is, historical voyage prediction values ​​and historical actual voyage values ​​under similar conditions are collected. Then, the error of the historical voyage data is calculated. Secondly, the average value of the historical voyage data is calculated. The real-time remaining navigable mileage S (i.e., D 1 ) is input into the calculation formula of the historical data correction model for correction, and the voyage prediction value after the first correction is obtained. Then, real-time environmental data is obtained: through the perception system on the ship, real-time data in the current environment is obtained, including wind speed, wave height, current speed, etc. Then, the real-time environmental factor is calculated, and the real-time data is substituted into the environmental factor calculation formula to obtain the real-time environmental factor. Determine the baseline environmental factor, which is usually set as a reference value under ideal weather and sea conditions, calculated in advance and fixed. Finally, the voyage prediction value (i.e., D) obtained after the first correction mentioned above is 2 ) is input into the calculation formula of the real-time environmental correction model for correction, and the corrected voyage prediction value is obtained, which is the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0135] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the collaborative ship data correction model is:

[0136]

[0137] Among them, D 校正3 is the remaining distance after correction by the collaborative ship data correction model (in nautical miles); D 3is the real-time remaining navigable mileage or the remaining voyage after correction by the historical data correction model, or the remaining voyage after correction by the real-time environmental data correction model, or the remaining voyage after correction by the historical data correction model and the real-time environmental data correction model in sequence (in nautical miles); γ is the synergistic influence coefficient; is the average remaining range of the coordinated ships.

[0138] Among them, the collaborative influence coefficient represents the influence of collaborative ship data on the correction result, and its value range is [0, 1].

[0139] The unit of the average remaining range of the coordinated ship is nautical miles, which is calculated by averaging the latest historical data of multiple coordinated ships.

[0140] Specifically, when the correction model only includes the collaborative ship data correction model, the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship is corrected to obtain the target remaining navigable range of the ship. The implementation process is as follows: First, collect collaborative ship data: obtain the latest voyage data of other ships currently sailing on similar routes through the collaborative communication system of the ship, including their remaining voyage prediction values. Then, calculate the average remaining range of the collaborative ships, average the collected collaborative ship data, and obtain the average remaining range of the collaborative ships. Finally, the real-time remaining navigable range S (i.e., D 3 ) is input into the calculation formula of the collaborative ship data correction model for correction, and the corrected voyage prediction value is obtained, which is the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0141] Specifically, when the correction model includes the historical data correction model and the collaborative ship data correction model, the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship is corrected to obtain the target remaining navigable range of the ship as follows: first, the real-time remaining navigable range S (i.e., D 1 ) is input into the calculation formula of the historical data correction model for the first correction. Then, the result obtained from the first correction is input into the calculation formula of the collaborative ship data correction model for the second correction to obtain the corrected voyage prediction value, which is the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0142] Specifically, when the correction model includes a real-time environmental data correction model and a coordinated ship data correction model, the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship is corrected to obtain the target remaining navigable range of the ship as follows: first, the real-time remaining navigable range S (i.e., D 2) is input into the calculation formula of the real-time environmental data correction model for the first correction. Then, the result obtained from the first correction is input into the calculation formula of the collaborative ship data correction model for the second correction to obtain the corrected voyage prediction value, which is the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0143] Specifically, when the correction model includes a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model, the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship is corrected to obtain the target remaining navigable range of the ship as follows: first, the real-time remaining navigable range S (i.e., D 1 ) is input into the calculation formula of the historical data correction model for the first correction. Then, the result obtained from the first correction is input into the calculation formula of the real-time environment data correction model for the second correction. Finally, the result obtained from the second correction is input into the collaborative ship data correction model for the third correction to obtain the corrected voyage prediction value, which is the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0144] For example, assuming that the remaining range of a ship after correction by the historical data correction model and the real-time environmental data correction model is 500 nautical miles, and the average remaining range of the collaborative ship is 480 nautical miles, and the collaborative influence coefficient is set to 0.1, then the remaining range after correction by the collaborative ship data correction model is:

[0145]

[0146] It should be noted that the above method can be used to calculate the remaining navigable mileage of the ship in propulsion mode when the ship's navigation mission is clear, realize quantitative evaluation of aerial survey prediction, and improve prediction accuracy.

[0147] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction method based on the ship propulsion mode also includes: obtaining the historical total fuel consumption, the total sailing mileage and the current remaining fuel load; obtaining the average fuel consumption efficiency of the entire ship based on the historical total fuel consumption and the total sailing mileage; and obtaining the average remaining sailing mileage of the ship based on the average fuel consumption efficiency of the entire ship and the current remaining fuel load.

[0148] The calculation formula for the average remaining navigable mileage is:

[0149]

[0150] Among them, ∑A 实时 is the total historical fuel consumption in tons; ∑x is the total sailing mileage in nautical miles.

[0151]

[0152] At this point, the remaining navigable mileage under the average mode can be calculated according to the above formula.

[0153] It should be noted that the method for predicting the average remaining navigable mileage of a ship provided in the embodiment of the present application can be used to predict the remaining navigable mileage of a ship when the ship's mission is unclear.

[0154] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction method based on the ship propulsion mode also includes: calculating the average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under various operating conditions according to the calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate under the ship propulsion mode; and constructing the operating condition and average fuel consumption efficiency curve according to the average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under various operating conditions and the corresponding operating conditions.

[0155] Among them, for various propulsion modes and operating conditions of ships, according to the calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate under the propulsion mode of the ship, the average fuel consumption efficiency under each operating condition can be calculated, and the operating condition and average fuel consumption efficiency curve can be constructed according to the average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under each operating condition and the corresponding operating condition. Through the operating condition and average fuel consumption efficiency curve, the economic operation curve can be determined, and suggestions can be provided for the selection of subsequent propulsion modes and operating conditions. Among them, the operating condition and average fuel consumption efficiency curve is related to the actual operating conditions of the ship and the actual value of the average fuel consumption efficiency under each condition, and no specific limitation is made here.

[0156] For example, taking ship X as an example, the remaining navigable mileage of ship X under the current propulsion mode and simulated operating parameters is calculated. Assuming that the ship is powered by a diesel engine, there are two operating modes, operating condition 1 and operating condition 2. The equipment consuming fuel in the ship includes 2 diesel engines and 2 diesel generator sets. In the past 2 hours, the ship has been running for 1 hour in operating condition 1 and 1 hour in operating condition 2 respectively. The specific fuel flow, speed and other parameters of each device are shown in Table 1.

[0157] First, the real-time range prediction of ship X is performed. The real-time range prediction is a range prediction for the current working condition 2 state. According to the parameters in Table 1, under working condition 2, the real-time fuel consumption rate of the 1# diesel engine is calculated to be 3m3 / h; the real-time fuel consumption rate of the 2# diesel engine is 3m3 / h; the real-time fuel consumption rate of the 1# diesel engine is 2m3 / h; the real-time fuel consumption rate of the 2# diesel engine is 2m3 / h. From this, it can be calculated that the real-time fuel consumption rate of the whole ship is 9t / h, and the result of the real-time range prediction under working condition 2 is 120 nautical miles.

[0158] Table 1 Ship X operating condition parameters

[0159]

[0160] Then, the average voyage of ship X is predicted. The fuel flow parameters of the fuel inlet and outlet of each device over the past period of time are simulated and measured by the fuel flow sensor, as shown in Table 1. According to the parameters in Table 1, the average fuel consumption efficiency of the whole ship is calculated to be 0.48t / nautical mile; the average remaining voyage range is calculated to be 112.5 nautical miles.

[0161] Secondly, according to the parameters in Table 1, the fuel consumption rate of the whole ship under working condition 1 is calculated to be 0.54t / nautical mile; the fuel consumption rate of the whole ship under working condition 2 is calculated to be 0.45t / nautical mile. Therefore, it can be concluded that the economic operation condition is working condition 2, and it is recommended that the crew operate the ship to sail under working condition 2.

[0162] It can be seen that, first of all, the real-time voyage prediction results and the average voyage prediction results are obtained from the above examples. Among them, the real-time voyage prediction results can dynamically reflect the remaining navigable mileage of the ship when it is sailing in the current operating state in real time, and have good time-varying properties, which can be used to guide the crew to reasonably operate the ship to complete the task in the next step. Among them, the average voyage prediction result is closely related to the crew's habit of operating the ship, and can reflect the remaining navigable mileage of the ship under multiple operating conditions. It has good stability. This result is more in line with the actual situation of the crew operating the ship and is more valuable for reference.

[0163] Then, by calculating the average fuel consumption efficiency of the entire ship under various operating conditions, the most fuel-efficient economic operating condition is obtained, and the crew is advised to operate the ship under this condition to improve the ship's ability to perform tasks.

[0164] Figure 2 This is a principle structure block diagram of a voyage prediction device based on a ship propulsion mode provided in an embodiment of the present application. Correspondingly, the present application also provides a voyage prediction device based on a ship propulsion mode, please refer to Figure 2 The device 100 includes: a calculation module 101, used to calculate the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; a model construction module 102, used to construct a voyage prediction correction model; and a correction module 103, used to correct the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship.

[0165] In the technical solution of this embodiment, the voyage prediction device based on the ship propulsion mode includes: a calculation module for calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; a model construction module for constructing a voyage prediction correction model; a correction module for correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable mileage of the ship. It can be seen that by constructing a voyage prediction correction model and correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship through the voyage prediction correction model, a quantitative evaluation of the ship's voyage prediction is achieved, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the remaining navigable mileage.

[0166] In some embodiments, the calculation module is also used to: obtain the current speed of the ship in the ship propulsion mode, the current remaining fuel loading and the real-time fuel consumption rate; calculate the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode based on the current speed of the ship in the ship propulsion mode, the current remaining fuel loading and the real-time fuel consumption rate.

[0167] In some embodiments, the calculation module is also used to: calculate the current remaining sailing time of the ship in the ship propulsion mode based on the current remaining fuel loading and the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; calculate the real-time remaining sailing mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode based on the current remaining sailing time of the ship in the ship propulsion mode and the current speed of the ship in the ship propulsion mode.

[0168] In some embodiments, the ship control system includes a plurality of fuel consumption devices; the calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is:

[0169]

[0170] Among them, A 实时 is the real-time fuel consumption rate; ρ is the fuel density; n is the number of fuel-consuming equipment in the ship propulsion mode; A in A is the oil inlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment; out It is the oil outlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment.

[0171] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction correction model includes at least one of a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model.

[0172] In some embodiments, when the voyage prediction correction model includes two or more of: a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model, and a collaborative ship data correction model, the order of correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model is: historical data correction model, real-time environmental data correction model, and collaborative ship data correction model.

[0173] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the historical data correction model is:

[0174]

[0175] Among them, D 校正1 is the remaining distance after correction by the historical data correction model; D 1 The real-time remaining mileage; D 历史 is the average value of historical voyage data; ΔD 历史 is the error of historical voyage data; α is the correction coefficient of historical data.

[0176] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the real-time environmental data correction model is:

[0177]

[0178] Among them, D 校正2 is the remaining range after correction by the real-time environmental data correction model; D 2 is the real-time remaining voyage distance or the remaining voyage distance after correction by the historical data correction model; β is the environmental impact coefficient; E 实时 is the real-time environmental factor; E 基准 The baseline environmental factor.

[0179] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the collaborative ship data correction model is:

[0180]

[0181] Among them, D 校正3 is the remaining distance after correction by the collaborative ship data correction model; D 3 is the real-time remaining navigable mileage or the remaining voyage after correction by the historical data correction model, or the remaining voyage after correction by the real-time environmental data correction model, or the remaining voyage after correction by the historical data correction model and the real-time environmental data correction model in sequence; γ is the synergistic influence coefficient; is the average remaining range of the coordinated ships.

[0182] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction device based on the ship propulsion mode further includes:

[0183] The acquisition module is used to obtain the total historical fuel consumption, the total sailing mileage and the current remaining fuel load; the average fuel consumption efficiency determination module is used to obtain the average fuel consumption efficiency of the entire ship based on the total historical fuel consumption and the total sailing mileage; the average remaining sailing mileage determination module is used to obtain the average remaining sailing mileage of the ship based on the average fuel consumption efficiency of the entire ship and the current remaining fuel load.

[0184] In some embodiments, the voyage prediction device based on the ship propulsion mode also includes: an average fuel consumption efficiency determination module under each operating condition, which is used to calculate the average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under each operating condition according to the calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate under the ship propulsion mode; a curve establishment module, which is used to construct an operating condition and average fuel consumption efficiency curve according to the average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under each operating condition and the corresponding operating condition.

[0185] In the above embodiments, the description of each embodiment has its own emphasis. For parts that are not described in detail in a certain embodiment, reference can be made to the relevant descriptions of other embodiments.

[0186] The above is a detailed introduction to the voyage prediction method and device based on the ship propulsion mode provided in the embodiments of the present application, and the principles and implementation methods of the present application are explained by using specific examples. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the technical solution and core idea of ​​the present application; ordinary technicians in this field should understand that: they can still modify the technical solutions recorded in the aforementioned embodiments, or replace some of the technical features therein with equivalents; and these modifications or replacements do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solution deviate from the scope of the technical solution of the embodiments of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting a voyage based on a ship propulsion mode, characterized in that: Applied to a ship control system, the method comprises: Calculate the remaining navigable distance of the ship in real time under the ship propulsion mode; Constructing a voyage prediction and correction model; The real-time remaining navigable range of the ship is corrected according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable range of the ship.

2. The method for predicting the voyage based on the ship propulsion mode according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculating of the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode comprises: Obtain the current speed, current remaining fuel load and real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; The real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is calculated according to the current speed of the ship in the ship propulsion mode, the current remaining fuel load and the real-time fuel consumption rate.

3. The method for predicting the range based on the ship propulsion mode according to claim 2, characterized in that: The calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode according to the current speed of the ship in the ship propulsion mode, the current remaining fuel load and the real-time fuel consumption rate includes: Calculate the current remaining sailing time of the ship in the ship propulsion mode according to the current remaining fuel load and the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; The real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is calculated according to the current remaining navigable time of the ship in the ship propulsion mode and the current speed of the ship in the ship propulsion mode.

4. The method for predicting the range based on the ship propulsion mode according to claim 2, characterized in that: The ship control system includes a plurality of oil-consuming devices; The calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode is: Where Arealtime is the real-time fuel consumption rate of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; ρ is the fuel density; n is the number of fuel-consuming equipment in the ship propulsion mode; A in A is the oil inlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment; out It is the oil outlet flow rate of the oil-consuming equipment.

5. The method for predicting the voyage based on the ship propulsion mode according to claim 1, characterized in that: The voyage prediction correction model includes at least one of a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model and a collaborative ship data correction model.

6. The method for predicting the voyage based on the ship propulsion mode according to claim 5, characterized in that: When the voyage prediction correction model includes two or more of: a historical data correction model, a real-time environmental data correction model and a collaborative ship data correction model, the order of correcting the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model is: the historical data correction model, the real-time environmental data correction model, and the collaborative ship data correction model.

7. The method for predicting the voyage based on the ship propulsion mode according to claim 5, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the historical data correction model is: Wherein, Dcorrection1 is the remaining voyage after correction by the historical data correction model; D1 is the real-time remaining navigable mileage; Dhistory is the average value of historical voyage data; ΔDhistory is the error of historical voyage data; α is the historical data correction coefficient.

8. The method for predicting the voyage based on the ship propulsion mode according to claim 5, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the real-time environmental data correction model is: Among them, Dcorrection2 is the remaining distance after correction by the real-time environmental data correction model; D2 is the real-time remaining navigable mileage or the remaining distance after correction by the historical data correction model; β is the environmental impact coefficient; Ereal-time is the real-time environmental factor; and Ebenchmark is the benchmark environmental factor.

9. The method for predicting the voyage based on the ship propulsion mode according to claim 5, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the collaborative ship data correction model is: Wherein, Dcorrection3 is the remaining distance corrected by the collaborative ship data correction model; D3 is the real-time remaining navigable mileage or the remaining distance corrected by the historical data correction model, or the remaining distance corrected by the real-time environmental data correction model, or the remaining distance corrected by the historical data correction model and the real-time environmental data correction model in sequence; γ is the collaborative influence coefficient; is the average remaining range of the coordinated ships.

10. The method for predicting the voyage based on the ship propulsion mode according to claim 1, characterized in that: Also includes: Obtain the total historical fuel consumption, total mileage and current remaining fuel load; Obtaining the average fuel consumption efficiency of the entire ship according to the total historical fuel consumption and the total sailing mileage; The average remaining navigable mileage of the ship is obtained based on the average fuel consumption efficiency of the entire ship and the current remaining fuel loading.

11. The method for predicting the voyage based on the ship propulsion mode according to claim 4, characterized in that: Also includes: The average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under various operating conditions is calculated according to the calculation formula of the real-time fuel consumption rate under the ship propulsion mode; And according to the average fuel consumption efficiency of the ship under various operating conditions and the corresponding operating conditions, the operating condition and average fuel consumption efficiency curve are constructed.

12. A voyage prediction device based on a ship propulsion mode, characterized in that: Applied to a ship control system, the device comprises: A calculation module, used for calculating the real-time remaining navigable mileage of the ship in the ship propulsion mode; A model building module is used to build a voyage prediction and correction model; The correction module is used to correct the real-time remaining navigable range of the ship according to the voyage prediction correction model to obtain the target remaining navigable range of the ship.

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