Method for researching and analyzing operation law and internal mechanism of domestic coal market by applying asymmetric rhombic diagram

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for researching and analyzing the operation law and the internal mechanism of a domestic coal market by using an asymmetric rhombic diagram. The method comprises the following steps of: performing asymmetric rhombic diagram, graph inner curve segmentation, superposition of a plurality of rhombic diagrams and the like; the original mode of describing the domestic coal market (change) by abstracted characters is changed into a mode of combining'graphic expression and character description 'for expression and explaining, especially for key elements of the market supply and demand relationship; comprising market supply and demand quantity comparison change, market abundant supply quantity (or abundant demand quantity), market supply and demand balance condition achievement, market price evolution trend and the like which are all displayed in a visual, vivid and vivid graphical mode; a brand-new cognitive method and a unique thought are provided for perspective observation, efficient understanding and deep research on the operation law and the internal mechanism of the domestic coal market, and the method is a major innovation and breakthrough in research on the domestic coal market theory.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This technology is an innovative breakthrough in the research methods for the operating laws and internal mechanisms of the domestic coal market. Background Art

[0002] Professional research on the operating rules and internal mechanisms of the domestic coal market is still in the process of exploration and summary. Most existing studies tend to be empirical and phenomenological textual expressions, lacking systematic and professional in-depth research results. Moreover, pure textual expressions are abstract and obscure, and difficult to understand. This study has subverted the traditional empirical research method. Through asymmetric diamond graphs, curve segmentation within graphs, and superposition of multiple diamond graphs, the original abstract textual description of the domestic coal market (changes) has been transformed into an expression and explanation using a combination of "asymmetric diamond graphs + textual descriptions". It provides a new cognitive method and unique ideas for perspective observation, efficient understanding, and in-depth research on the operating rules and internal mechanisms of the domestic coal market. It is a major innovative breakthrough in the study of domestic coal market theory. Summary of the invention

[0003] The present invention uses a combination of "graphic expression + text description" to express and explain the operating rules and internal mechanisms of the domestic coal market. Specifically, the scale comparison between market supply and demand is vividly expressed through asymmetric diamond diagrams and internal segmented areas, intuitively showing the basic characteristics of whether the market supply exceeds demand or the supply is less than demand; the market evolution trajectory and trend are intuitively reflected through the superposition of multiple diamond diagrams; the correlation between the mutual influence and reaction between market quantity and price is intuitively expressed through the curves and arrows in the diamond diagram; the market surplus supply (or surplus demand) and the repeated squeezed out of the market by marking the local area in the diamond diagram are vividly expressed, and the market supply (purchase) "team" is squeezed in again through its own price adjustment (price increase, price drop), which vividly and intuitively reflects the characteristics of why coal prices fall (rise) and change from round to round; after multiple price adjustments and changes in the market, the supply and demand change synchronously, and the market supply and demand eventually tend to balance in the form of graphics and mathematical equations.

[0004] This method uses the "asymmetric diamond diagram + text description" method to express the changing characteristics of complex market operations and the internal operating mechanism. It is intuitive and logical, and provides a new method and professional tool for professional research on the domestic coal market. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0005] Figure 1 Schematic diagram of the interaction between quantity and price and price decline under the situation of oversupply in the market 1. Symbols and their meanings G represents the total market supply; X represents the total market demand; P stands for market price.

[0006] (II) The meaning of the lines, arrows and triangle areas in each diamond diagram (in diamond shape Figure 1 As an example): 1. (1) The line segment P0→G0 and the arrow point to express the effect of market price on the total market supply G0; (2) The line segment P0→X0 and the direction of the arrow express the effect of market price on the total market demand X0.

[0007] 2. The line segment G0X0→P1 and the arrow point to express the total market supply and demand G0X0 for market transactions, which work together to form a new market price P1.

[0008] 3. (1) The area of ​​the triangle P0G0P1 represents the scale of total market supply.

[0009] (2) The area of ​​the triangle P0X0P1 represents the scale of total market demand.

[0010] (III) Multiple diamond-shaped graphs (such as diamond Figure 1 ,diamond Figure 2 ,diamond Figure 3 ) The meaning of the series superposition expression (taking the market supply exceeding demand and price falling as an example): The market is represented by a diamond Figure 1 The state (total market supply and demand and market price level) falls to a diamond Figure 2 Status (total market supply and demand and market price level).

[0011] Figure 2 In the state of oversupply in the market, the logic diagram of the correlation between the abundant supply leading to internal squeeze overflow and price drop 1. G and X represent the total market supply and total demand respectively. Example: G0 and X0 are the total market supply and total market demand when the market price is P0. ....... Similarly: G N , X N Representative price P N At point 2. P0, P1, P2.....P N , P N1 Respectively represent the market price (falling) to new points.

[0012] 3. A, B, C, D... respectively represent the priority order of the surplus supply that is about to be squeezed out by the market due to part of the supply being of "low quality and high price" when the market is in a state of oversupply. For example, if A is on the outermost side, it means A is most likely to be squeezed out by the market.

[0013] When A is squeezed out of the market, A starts to reduce prices, lowering its own selling price to P1, regaining customer recognition and re-entering the market supply "team". At this time, B is exposed and becomes the first "surplus" supply squeezed out of the market. At this time, when B reduces the price to a lower point P2, B is accepted by customers again and re-enters the market supply "team". At this time, C is listed as the first surplus squeezed out of the market, and so on.

[0014] When the market is in a state of oversupply, there is always excess supply that will be squeezed out of the market, and the supply that is about to be squeezed out of the market will always take the initiative to reduce prices to regain competitive advantages. As a result, the market is experiencing rounds of price cuts and declines.

[0015] 4. The "arrow" in the diamond diagram indicates that the two elements are interrelated and affect each other. For example, when the market price changes from P0 to P1, it will inevitably affect the total market supply G0 and the total market demand X0. The changes in G0 and X0 will affect and change the market price. This is the basic market supply and demand relationship logic that the market supply and demand game (transaction) forms the price, and the price change will react to the change in supply and demand.

[0016] 5. G0', G1', G2'... represent the "theoretical supply" that can stabilize the market under the market supply and demand conditions at each stage.

[0017] 6. After N rounds of price cuts, the market surplus ∆G N Finally, it is "completely" squeezed out by the market. At this time (the market price has dropped to a certain extent), the demand side is simultaneously stimulated to expand the new demand ∆X N At this time, a new supply and demand balance point appears in the market, namely G N '=X N , where G N '=(G N -∆G N ), X N =(X N '+∆X N ).

[0018] Figure 3 Four-level diagram of the inverted trapezoidal supply and demand changes in the process of coal price continuous decline under the condition of oversupply, which indicates that the market may stabilize Under the condition of oversupply in the domestic coal market, prices will continue to fall. So, what is the important price point line at which the market can stand firm? Whether the market will eventually stabilize depends on the basic balance of overall market supply and demand. When the market is oversupplied, the coal price continues to fall, which also affects the continuous changes in market supply and demand (reducing supply and stimulating consumption). Only when the changes in market supply and demand reach a point that can rebalance it, can the market stabilize. Based on this basic logic, the four key market price point lines are very important and of great reference value.

[0019] The first one, "The decline in market coal prices can squeeze out part of the price point line corresponding to the amount of imported coal", means: if coal prices continue to fall, causing the domestic market coal price to appear at a price point that has a certain advantage over imported coal, then some coal-demanding companies may turn to purchasing domestic trade coal, and the domestic coal supply will squeeze out part of the imported coal, and the market will be rebalanced.

[0020] The second point, "the market coal price falls to a price point line that is advantageous compared with the long-term coal price", means: once the domestic market coal price continues to fall and reaches a certain comparative advantage over the long-term coal price (because the long-term coal price is relatively stable and not easy to change), some coal-consuming enterprises will turn to purchasing more market coal, and at this time, the market supply and demand may return to balance. For example, the port coal price of 5,500 kcal reaches 710 yuan / ton.

[0021] The third article, "The decline in coal prices has caused some high-cost coal mines to approach the price point corresponding to the break-even point", explains: if the market coal price continues to fall and reaches the price corresponding to the break-even point of some domestic coal mines, it will inevitably lead to the suspension of some coal production, making it possible for the domestic coal market to rebalance supply and demand. For example, the market coal price reaches about 500 yuan / ton.

[0022] Article 4 "Coal price falls to the ultimate price point line" means: if the market coal price continues to fall, such as the coal price has reached the point where the marginal contribution of some coal mines is 0, that is, many domestic coal mines will completely go out of business, the supply will be greatly reduced, and the market supply and demand will be rebalanced. At this time, the market coal price can no longer fall. For example, from 2014 to 2015, the pithead price of some coal mines has reached 100 yuan / ton.

[0023] Figure 4 When the market supply is less than the demand, the strong demand leads to internal squeeze overflow and price increase logic diagram 1. G and X represent the total market supply and total demand respectively. Example: G0 and X0 are the total market supply and total market demand when the market price is P0. ....... Similarly: G N , X N Representative price P N At point 2. P0, P1, P2.....P N , P N1 They represent the market price (increasing) to new points respectively.

[0024] 3. A, B, C, D... respectively represent the priority order of purchase volume that is intended to be divested due to low "quotation level" when supply is less than demand in the market. For example, A is on the outermost side, which means A is most likely to be suppressed by the market and divested.

[0025] When A is about to be squeezed out by the market, A will start to raise the price and raise the purchase price to P1, regain the seller's recognition and squeeze into the market purchase "team" again. At this time, B is exposed and becomes the first "shortage" purchase volume squeezed out by the market. At this time, B takes the price increase measure to P2, and then B is accepted by the seller again and squeezes into the market purchase "team" again. At this time, C is listed as the first "shortage" purchase volume squeezed out by the market, and so on.

[0026] When the market is in a state of supply being less than demand, there will always be a part of the purchasing volume that will be suppressed and divested by the market. The purchasing volume to be divested by the market always regains its competitive advantage through active price increase measures, and the market is therefore experiencing rounds of price increases.

[0027] 4. The "arrow" in the diamond diagram indicates that the two elements are interrelated and affect each other. For example, when the market price changes from P0 to P1, it will inevitably affect the total market supply G0 and the total market demand X0. The changes in G0 and X0 will affect and change the market price. This is the basic market supply and demand relationship logic that the market supply and demand game (transaction) forms the price, and the price change will react to the change in supply and demand.

[0028] 5. X0', X1', X2'... represent the "theoretical purchasing volume" that can stabilize the market under the market supply and demand conditions at each stage.

[0029] 6. After N rounds of price increases, the market shortage of purchase volume ∆X N Finally, it is "completely" suppressed and stripped out by the market. At this time (the market price has risen to a certain extent), the supply side is simultaneously stimulated to expand the new supply ∆G N At this time, a new supply and demand balance point appears in the market, namely G N '=X N ', where G N'=(G N +∆G N ), X N '=(X N -∆X N ).

[0030] Figure 5 Under the condition of market supply less than demand, the market may stabilize during the continuous rise of coal prices. Four-level diagram of the change of supply and demand in the trapezoidal shape. Under the condition of supply exceeding demand in the domestic coal market, prices will continue to rise. So, what is the important price point line at which the market can stand firm? Whether the market will eventually stabilize depends on the basic balance of overall market supply and demand. When the market supply is less than the demand, the coal price continues to rise, which also affects the continuous changes in market supply and demand (reducing the purchase volume and stimulating the expansion of supply). Only when the changes in market supply and demand reach a point that can rebalance it, can the market stabilize. Based on this basic logic, the four key market price point lines are very important and of great reference significance.

[0031] First: With the rise in market coal prices, the price point line corresponding to part of the purchase volume that was suppressed and divested began to appear.

[0032] Article 2: With the tight market supply, coal mines implement the price point line corresponding to "taking mining data (including coal quality and quantity) as the basis for contract settlement".

[0033] Article 3: As coal prices rise, the supply side will be stimulated to produce at full capacity, which will stimulate the import volume to continue to increase, corresponding to the price point line.

[0034] Article 4: As the scale of market purchases decreases, the scale of supply stimulates expansion and the market achieves a balanced price point line. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0035] The following is an explanation based on two typical market conditions of domestic coal market: oversupply and undersupply.

Claims

1. Innovatively apply asymmetric diamond graphs, spatial division within graphs, and superposition of multiple diamond graphs to transform the original abstract text description of the domestic coal market (changes) into a combination of "graphic expression + text description" to express and explain. This is the core breakthrough point of this patent.

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