Power outage risk assessment method, system, equipment, storage medium and program product

Abstract

The present invention discloses a power outage risk assessment method, system, device, storage medium and program product, the method comprising: conducting real-time power outage assessment based on power supply related data to obtain real-time power outage assessment results; conducting comprehensive power outage assessment based on real-time power outage assessment results and business data to obtain comprehensive power outage assessment results, that is, obtaining power outage and restoration time, power outage nature, and improved power outage events; collecting real-time data of distribution network equipment for abnormal detection, and combining real-time power outage assessment results and comprehensive power outage assessment results for comprehensive analysis to predict power outage risks. The present invention enables staff to avoid power outage risks through scheduling means before a power outage failure occurs, thereby improving user experience, by assessing and predicting power outage risks.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of electric power technology, and in particular to a method, system, device, storage medium and program product for assessing power outage risks. Background Art

[0002] With the continuous growth of power demand and power equipment, the stability and reliability of the power system have become issues of great concern to power companies and users. Traditional power outage analysis methods have a single data source, low accuracy, and often lag behind the actual failure, making it difficult to make accurate predictions. Especially for end users, any power outage will lead to problems such as poor user experience.

[0003] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a power outage risk assessment method to assess and predict power outage risks, so that staff can avoid power outage risks through scheduling measures before a power outage occurs, thereby improving user experience. Summary of the invention

[0004] The present invention aims to provide a method, system, device, storage medium and program product for assessing power outage risk, so as to achieve the assessment and prediction of power outage risk.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0006] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for assessing power outage risk, including:

[0007] Based on the power outage related data, real-time power outage analysis and judgment are performed to obtain real-time power outage analysis and judgment results; wherein the real-time power outage analysis and judgment results include specific power outage events and their information;

[0008] Comprehensive power outage analysis is performed based on real-time power outage analysis results and business data to obtain comprehensive power outage analysis results, that is, the power outage and restoration time, power outage nature, and improved power outage events;

[0009] Collect real-time data of distribution network equipment for anomaly detection, and conduct comprehensive analysis based on real-time power outage assessment results and comprehensive power outage assessment results to predict power outage risks.

[0010] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a power outage risk assessment system, including:

[0011] A real-time power outage analysis unit is used to perform real-time power outage analysis based on power outage related data to obtain real-time power outage analysis results; wherein the real-time power outage analysis results include specific power outage events and their information;

[0012] The comprehensive power outage judgment unit is used to perform comprehensive power outage judgment based on real-time power outage judgment results and business data to obtain comprehensive power outage judgment results, that is, to obtain the power outage and restoration time, power outage nature, and the improved power outage event;

[0013] The prediction unit is used to collect real-time data of distribution network equipment for anomaly detection, and conduct comprehensive analysis based on the real-time power outage assessment results and the comprehensive power outage assessment results to predict the power outage risk.

[0014] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory, wherein the processor executes the computer program or instructions to implement the aforementioned power outage risk assessment method.

[0015] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer storage medium, wherein a computer program or instruction is stored in the computer storage medium, and when the computer program or instruction is executed by a processor, the aforementioned power outage risk assessment method is implemented.

[0016] In a fifth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer program product, including a computer program or instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implements the aforementioned power outage risk assessment method.

[0017] Technical effects and advantages of the present invention: The present invention efficiently integrates multi-source data from distribution automation systems, dispatching automation systems, electricity consumption information collection systems, etc., and adopts modern information technology to comprehensively monitor and analyze the operation status of the power grid. It not only significantly improves the accuracy of power system fault analysis and reduces false alarms and missed alarms, but also can provide early warning when potential power outage risks occur, thereby achieving rapid response and processing; the present invention improves user experience and makes users experience power outages without any perception as much as possible during the power use process.

[0018] Other features and advantages of the present invention will be described in the following description, and partly become apparent from the description, or understood by practicing the present invention. The purpose and other advantages of the present invention can be realized and obtained by the structures pointed out in the description, claims and drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0019] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0020] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for evaluating power outage risk according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0021] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a source of power supply related data according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0022] Figure 3 The figure is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0023] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0024] To address the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention discloses a method for determining power outage risk. Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0025] Step S1: Perform real-time power outage analysis based on the collected power outage related data to obtain real-time power outage analysis results; wherein the real-time power outage analysis results include specific power outage events and their information;

[0026] Step S2: Perform comprehensive power outage analysis based on the real-time power outage analysis results and business data to obtain a comprehensive power outage analysis result, that is, obtain the power outage and restoration time, the nature of the power outage, and the improved power outage event;

[0027] Step S3: Collect real-time data of distribution network equipment for anomaly detection, and conduct comprehensive analysis based on the real-time power outage assessment results and the comprehensive power outage assessment results to predict the power outage risk.

[0028] In some specific embodiments, the method further includes step S0: collecting power supply related data and performing preprocessing; specifically including:

[0029] The power supply related data includes power outage monitoring data, medium and low voltage model data and auxiliary analysis data.

[0030] The power outage monitoring data is obtained by collecting real-time data from the power distribution automation system, the dispatching automation system and the power consumption information collection system;

[0031] The medium and low voltage model data is obtained by collecting real-time data from the power grid resource business center and the marketing SG186 system, and combining it with the power grid topology information;

[0032] The auxiliary analysis and judgment data is obtained by collecting real-time data from the power grid resource business center and the power supply service command system;

[0033] That is, the power outage monitoring data includes distribution automation system data, dispatching automation system data and power consumption information system data;

[0034] The medium and low voltage model data include power grid resource business middle station data, power grid topology information and marketing SG186 system data;

[0035] The auxiliary analysis data includes power grid resource business middle station data, power supply service command system data and dispatching OMS system data;

[0036] Among them, the distribution automation system data includes: line switch position change signal, line switch protection signal, line switch telemetry data, transformer power failure signal (collected through the substation fusion terminal), transformer low-voltage side voltage measurement data (collected through the substation fusion terminal), transformer low-voltage side current measurement data (collected through the substation fusion terminal), low-voltage power failure signal (from intelligent leakage protection, LTU, low-voltage intelligent circuit breaker and other equipment), low-voltage switch voltage (from intelligent leakage protection, LTU, low-voltage intelligent circuit breaker and other equipment), low-voltage current measurement data (from intelligent leakage protection, LTU, low-voltage intelligent circuit breaker and other equipment), low-voltage branch line switch status information;

[0037] The dispatching automation system data includes: outgoing switch position change signal, outgoing switch protection signal, and outgoing switch telemetry data;

[0038] The electricity consumption information system data includes: 10kV outgoing line gateway meter measurement data, substation power outage signal, substation voltage measurement data, substation current measurement data, household meter power outage signal, household meter voltage measurement data, and household meter current measurement data.

[0039] The data of the power grid resource business center include: equipment model ledger, maintenance plan, work ticket and operation ticket;

[0040] Marketing SG186 system data includes: marketing archive ledger, marketing meter replacement information, user arrears information and user power outage application;

[0041] The power supply service command system data includes: 95598 power outage reporting information and 95598 fault repair work orders;

[0042] The dispatch OMS system data includes: dispatch log and operation instruction ticket information.

[0043] After collecting the power supply related data, the power supply related data is preprocessed; the data preprocessing includes data cleaning, noise removal, filling missing values, eliminating outliers, unifying the format, etc. to ensure data quality; and the power supply related data from different sources are integrated to construct a comprehensive final data set D to provide a data basis for subsequent analysis.

[0044] Among them, removing outliers includes the following operations:

[0045] After normalizing the current data set, the data in the data set is detected for anomalies according to the local vector dot product density LDVP algorithm to obtain candidate anomalies of the current window data set and verify the candidate anomalies; when the candidate anomalies are in the continuous verification process, the number of verifications is equal to the verification threshold When , the candidate outliers are judged as real outliers and saved in the outlier library; and the real outliers in the current data set are removed.

[0046] In some specific embodiments, step S1: performing real-time power outage analysis based on power supply related data to obtain real-time power outage analysis results (real-time power outage analysis results include specific power outage events and their information); specifically includes:

[0047] Specific power outage events include: line power outage events, single distribution transformer power outage events, low-voltage line power outage events and single-user power outage events.

[0048] Relevant information of the power outage event includes: the operation and maintenance unit to which it belongs, the station to which it belongs, the line resource ID, the switch resource ID, the power outage time, the power outage type (including line power outage, single distribution transformer power outage, low-voltage line power outage and low-voltage user power outage), the nature of the power outage (including fault power outage and planned power outage), the feeder automation action status (including feeder automation success and feeder automation failure), the power outage scope, etc.

[0049] (1) Conduct real-time power outage analysis based on distribution automation system data, power consumption information collection system data, and power grid topology information to determine line power outage events; specifically, include:

[0050] <1> Determine the starting conditions: Use the line switch position change signal in the distribution automation system data (i.e., the position change signal sent from the line switch to the distribution point automation system) as the starting condition of the line power outage event to generate a line power outage event.

[0051] <2> Determine the nature of the power outage: Determine the nature of the power outage event based on the maintenance plan information received by the distribution automation system; the details are as follows:

[0052] When the distribution automation system receives the protection signal and the position change signal sent by the line switch at the same time (that is, the distribution automation system receives the line switch protection signal and the line switch position change signal at the same time), the power outage type of the line power outage event is recorded as fault power outage;

[0053] When the maintenance operation causes the medium voltage line switch to change position, the distribution automation system records the line switch change signal and generates power outage information of the line power outage event according to the line switch change signal; then the power outage nature of the line power outage event recorded by the distribution automation system is a planned power outage. The power outage information includes the power outage time, power outage duration and power outage range.

[0054] <3> Determine the power outage start time and power outage range: When a line power outage event is generated, the line switch change time and the earliest line switch change time are used as the power outage start time of the line power outage event, and the power outage interval after feeder automation analysis at the power outage location is used as the power outage range of the line power outage event.

[0055] <4> Obtaining related information: After the feeder automation assessment and analysis, the information affected by the line power outage event is correlated according to the grid topology information to obtain the related information of the line power outage event; the related information of the line power outage event includes switch information, line information and station information.

[0056] It should be noted that when the distribution automation system does not receive the switch change signal sent by the substation fusion terminal, if the distribution automation system or the electricity consumption information collection system receives the transformer power outage signal sent by the substation fusion terminal or the substation meter, it will trace the upper power supply point of the power outage in combination with the grid topology information and generate a line power outage event.

[0057] (2) Perform real-time power outage analysis and judgment based on the transformer power outage signal in the distribution automation system data and the substation power outage signal in the power consumption information collection system, and obtain two single distribution transformer power outage analysis and judgment results; by mutual verification of the two single distribution transformer power outage analysis and judgment results, comprehensively determine whether it is a single distribution transformer power outage event; specifically include:

[0058] <1> Real-time analysis using transformer power outage signals:

[0059] When the distribution automation system receives the transformer power outage signal sent by the substation fusion terminal, the distribution automation system analyzes the transformer power outage signal to generate a transformer power outage event; if there is only one transformer in the line where the transformer is located and there is a power outage, it is further determined to be a single distribution transformer power outage event, and the power outage time of this transformer is used as the power outage start time of the single distribution transformer power outage event.

[0060] <2> Use the power outage signal of the substation to conduct real-time analysis:

[0061] When the substation main meter in the electricity consumption information collection system sends a substation power outage signal to the distribution automation system, the distribution automation system analyzes the substation power outage signal and generates a transformer power outage event; if there is only one transformer on the line where the transformer is located and there is a power outage, it is determined to be a single distribution transformer power outage event, and the power outage time of this transformer is used as the power outage start time of the single distribution transformer power outage event.

[0062] Among them, the judgment of a single distribution transformer power outage event is mainly based on the analysis results of the transformer power outage signal, supplemented by the analysis results of the substation power outage signal; the two analysis results can be used as a basis for mutual verification to improve the accuracy of real-time power outage analysis.

[0063] (3) Perform real-time power outage analysis and judgment based on the line switch position change signal in the distribution automation system data and the household meter power outage signal in the power consumption information collection system data, and obtain two low-voltage line power outage analysis and judgment results; by mutual verification of the two low-voltage line power outage analysis and judgment results, comprehensively determine whether it is a low-voltage line power outage event; specifically include:

[0064] <1> Real-time analysis and judgment using line switch position change signals:

[0065] When the substation fusion terminal sends the received low-voltage line switch opening signal to the distribution automation system, it is determined to be a low-voltage line power outage event, and the low-voltage branch line switch status information in the same period as the low-voltage line switch opening signal is obtained, and the power outage range of the low-voltage line power outage event is generated in combination with the grid topology information.

[0066] <2> Real-time analysis and judgment based on power outage signals from user meters:

[0067] Based on the power consumption information collection system, the power outage signals reported by multiple low-voltage HPLC meters under the distribution transformer (i.e. outside the distribution transformer outlet) are received, and the low-voltage user power outages are aggregated (i.e. classified) as low-voltage line power outage events according to the transformer-box-household relationship model.

[0068] Among them, the judgment of low-voltage line power outage events is achieved by classifying and merging the judgment results of the line switch change signal and the judgment results of the household meter power outage signal; the two judgment results can be used as a basis for mutual verification to improve the accuracy of real-time power outage judgment.

[0069] (4) Perform real-time power outage analysis and judgment based on the low-voltage power outage signal in the distribution automation system data and the household power outage signal in the electricity consumption information collection system, and obtain two low-voltage single-household power outage analysis and judgment results; by cross-checking the two low-voltage single-household power outage analysis and judgment results, comprehensively determine whether it is a low-voltage single-household power outage event; specifically include:

[0070] <1> Real-time analysis using low-voltage power outage signals:

[0071] When the intelligent terminal in the substation reports the low-voltage power outage signal to the distribution automation system, it is determined based on the transformer-box-household relationship model whether only one low-voltage user in the substation has a power outage. If so, it is determined to be a low-voltage single-user power outage event.

[0072] <2> Real-time analysis and judgment based on power outage signals from user meters:

[0073] When the user information collection system receives the household power outage signal reported by the low-voltage HPLC meter, it determines whether only one low-voltage user in the substation has a power outage based on the transformer-box-household relationship model. If so, it is determined to be a low-voltage single-user power outage event.

[0074] Among them, the judgment of low-voltage single-user power outage events is mainly based on the analysis results of low-voltage power outage signals, supplemented by the analysis results of household meter power outage signals; the two analysis results can be used as a basis for mutual verification to improve the accuracy of real-time power outage analysis.

[0075] In some specific embodiments, step S2: performing comprehensive power outage analysis based on real-time power outage analysis results and business data to obtain a comprehensive power outage analysis result, that is, obtaining the power outage restoration time, the nature of the power outage, and the improved power outage event; including:

[0076] (1) Based on the real-time power outage analysis results and combined with the comprehensive analysis of the signals from the power consumption information collection system, determine the power outage and restoration time corresponding to the specific power outage event; specifically including:

[0077] In the process of power restoration, the situation of segmented power transmission is taken into account, and the power restoration signal time of transformers in different sections is used as the power restoration time of specific power outage events in the real-time power outage assessment results;

[0078] For transformers that have not received the power-on signal, the power-on time of the specific power outage event is completed according to the power outage event verification and completion rules, and the power-on time of the last transformer is used as the power-on time of the specific power outage event;

[0079] If the low-voltage power supply is restored through load transfer or other measures, the low-voltage power supply restoration time will be used as the power restoration time of the specific power outage event.

[0080] (2) Based on the real-time power outage analysis results, multiple power outage nature determinations are performed on the specific power outage event in combination with business data to obtain multiple nature determination results, and the power outage nature of the specific power outage event is determined through mutual verification of the multiple nature determination results; specifically including:

[0081] The business data include: protection action signal, maintenance plan, two tickets, dispatching operation instruction ticket, 95598 power outage announcement, 95598 fault reporting work order, 12398 work order, etc.

[0082] <1> Determine based on the protection action signal:

[0083] For specific power outage events based on the switch tripping signal reported by the distribution automation system, the nature of the power outage is determined to be a fault power outage by judging whether the switch tripping signal matches the corresponding protection action signal; if so, it means that the nature of the power outage of the specific power outage event is a fault power outage.

[0084] <2> Determine based on the maintenance plan:

[0085] The specific power outage event after analysis and judgment is correlated and matched with the maintenance plan (including the maintenance plan of the PMS3.0 system and the OMS system, as well as the scope of influence of the maintenance plan) in turn to determine whether the nature of the power outage of the specific power outage event is a planned power outage; when the specific power outage event is correlated and matched with the maintenance plan of the OMS system, the nature of the power outage of the specific power outage event is a planned power outage.

[0086] <3> Combining multiple votes to determine:

[0087] The specific power outage event is associated and matched with the work ticket, distribution switching operation ticket in the PMS3.0 system, and the dispatching operation instruction ticket in the OMS system (Outage Management System), and the nature of the power outage of the specific power outage event is determined by the successfully matched ticket type.

[0088] <4> Combined with the 95598 power outage announcement, the following is the judgment:

[0089] The specific power outage events after real-time power outage analysis are correlated and matched with the PMS3.0 system, power supply service command micro-application, 95598 power outage announcement in the marketing system, and the impact range of the power outage announcement. The nature and cause of the specific power outage event are determined based on the reason for the power outage announcement.

[0090] <5> Determine based on the work order:

[0091] The specific power outage event after real-time power outage analysis is correlated and matched with the 95598 user repair work order, proactive emergency repair work order and 12398 work order to determine whether the nature of the power outage of the specific power outage event is a fault power outage; at the same time, the cause of the power outage is automatically determined based on the fault cause reported by the emergency repair personnel.

[0092] It should be noted that the various power outage nature determination results in this step can verify each other, thereby improving the accuracy of the determination of the power outage nature of a specific power outage event.

[0093] (3) Based on the real-time power outage analysis results, combined with the grid topology information, outage area load and business data, verify and supplement the missing power outage events, false power outage event reports and incorrect power outage scope; specifically including:

[0094] <1> Complete the missing power outage events:

[0095] In the case where a real power outage occurs and neither the distribution automation system nor the electricity consumption information collection system reports a power outage signal, a power outage event missing check is performed based on relevant business data, power outage scope and transformer load data to determine whether a power outage has actually occurred. If so, the corresponding specific power outage event is generated and completed in combination with the corresponding actual power outage and restoration time.

[0096] <2> Complete the power outage scope:

[0097] In the event that a real power outage occurs and the switch change signal from the distribution automation system is not received, and the power outage signal reported by the electricity consumption information collection system is incomplete, it is determined whether there is a load missing in other transformers under the line where the power outage is located based on the line-transformer relationship, and then it is determined whether the power outage scope is missed; if missing, it means that the power outage scope is missed, and the missed power outage scope is automatically completed and a specific power outage event and its power outage scope are generated.

[0098] <3> To complete the power-on time:

[0099] In the case that there is a power outage but no power restoration in the power outage signal reported by the power consumption information collection system, determine whether there are power restoration signals reported by other distribution transformer power outage events (referring to distribution transformer power outage events other than the single distribution transformer power outage time analyzed in real-time power outage assessment) in the same section; if so, the power restoration time of the corresponding specific power outage event is completed according to the power restoration signal of the last transformer in the same section; if not, the power restoration time of the corresponding specific power outage event is completed according to the load recovery time of the transformer.

[0100] Due to the incomplete coverage of the distribution automation system terminals and the underreporting and false reporting of the electricity consumption information collection terminals, it is easy to cause the missing of power outage events and the inaccurate judgment of the power outage scope, which affects the accuracy and completeness of power outage events in terms of power supply reliability. Therefore, the present invention combines the topological relationship of the power grid lines, the load of the outage station area and the business data to verify and supplement the missing of power outage events, the false reporting of power outage events and the incorrect power outage scope.

[0101] (4) Eliminate power outage events and power outage ranges that are misjudged due to the mis-sending of power outage signals; specifically:

[0102] <1> Eliminate false alarm signals:

[0103] Eliminate the false power outage signals that meet the following conditions from the switch opening signals received from the dispatching automation system, the switch opening signals received from the distribution automation system, and the power outage signals received from the power consumption information collection system;

[0104] If the type of the switch opening signal is a test signal, the corresponding power outage signal is eliminated in combination with the line load curve or the distribution transformer outgoing line load curve;

[0105] If the switch reclosing is successful and the corresponding transformer load is not lost, the corresponding power outage signal is eliminated;

[0106] If it is determined that the power outage signal has not been restored, the repeatedly reported power outage signal will be shielded; that is, for a specific power outage event that has been determined to be restored within the power outage range, if the power outage signal of the specific power outage event has not been reset, the repeatedly reported power outage signal will be shielded;

[0107] If the reported power outage signal jitters frequently, the reported power outage signal will be shielded.

[0108] <2> Eliminate short-term power outages:

[0109] Screen out short-term power outage events based on the power outage start time and power outage recurrence time, and eliminate short-term power outage events;

[0110] Among them, a short-term power outage event is a power outage event that is shorter than a predetermined duration (for example, within 1 minute).

[0111] <3> Eliminate range false positives:

[0112] In response to false alarms of power outage signals and load transfer, a comprehensive analysis of specific power outage events is conducted based on the power outage scope obtained from the above-mentioned analysis and the 96-point load data of the power consumption information collection system. Specific power outage events with a duration greater than or equal to the predetermined power outage time (for example, 15 minutes) are selected, and it is determined whether the transformer corresponding to the specific power outage event has a voltage loss. If not, it means that the transformer has not actually been cut off, and the transformer that has not actually been cut off is then eliminated.

[0113] This step is mainly aimed at automatically eliminating the misjudgment of power outage events and power outage scope caused by the erroneous sending of power outage signals, as well as the power outage events and power outage scopes that meet the elimination principles of the "Implementation Rules of the Power Supply Reliability Evaluation Procedure".

[0114] In some specific embodiments, step S3: collecting real-time data of distribution network equipment for abnormality detection, and combining the real-time power outage judgment result and the comprehensive power outage judgment result for comprehensive analysis to predict the power outage risk, including:

[0115] Real-time stream processing technology is used to monitor, process and analyze the real-time data of multiple distribution network equipment in real time; the distribution network equipment includes: distribution automation system, electricity consumption information collection system, dispatching automation system, and power grid resource business center.

[0116] Based on the real-time power outage assessment results and the comprehensive power outage assessment results, machine learning algorithms are used to perform anomaly detection on the real-time data of multiple distribution network equipment to identify abnormal data points that do not conform to the normal pattern, and thus obtain potential power outage risks.

[0117] Based on the potential power outage risk, combined with the trend analysis of historical power outage data and real-time data of multiple distribution network equipment, the comprehensive power outage risk is predicted; among which, the levels of comprehensive power outage risk include low risk, medium risk and high risk.

[0118] Different response measures are set according to different levels of comprehensive power outage risks. When the predicted power outage risk level is high, the early warning mechanism is triggered for immediate response to reduce the impact of power outages on users.

[0119] For unavoidable power outages, power outage information and estimated restoration time are released to users through multiple channels (such as text messages, mobile applications, web pages, etc.) to improve users' right to know and satisfaction.

[0120] When the predicted comprehensive power outage risk level is high, the early warning mechanism is triggered for immediate response, including:

[0121] <1> Trigger the early warning mechanism: When the predicted comprehensive power outage risk level is high, the operation and maintenance personnel will be notified immediately to carry out preventive maintenance and emergency preparations.

[0122] <2> Immediate response processing: Once the early warning mechanism is triggered, the fault repair command system will automatically generate a repair work order and notify the repair personnel through mobile applications or text messages; the repair personnel can receive the work order through mobile applications or text messages, view the work order details and report the progress of the immediate processing.

[0123] The embodiment of the present invention discloses a power outage risk assessment system. Figure 2 As shown, including:

[0124] A real-time power outage analysis unit is used to perform real-time power outage analysis based on the collected power outage related data to obtain real-time power outage analysis results; wherein the real-time power outage analysis results include specific power outage events and their information;

[0125] The comprehensive power outage judgment unit is used to perform comprehensive power outage judgment based on real-time power outage judgment results and business data to obtain comprehensive power outage judgment results, that is, to obtain the power outage and restoration time, power outage nature, and the improved power outage event;

[0126] The prediction unit is used to collect real-time data of distribution network equipment for anomaly detection, and conduct comprehensive analysis based on the real-time power outage assessment results and the comprehensive power outage assessment results to predict the power outage risk.

[0127] Regarding the system in the above embodiment, the specific manner in which each unit module performs operations has been described in detail in the embodiment of the method, and will not be elaborated here.

[0128] Based on the same inventive concept, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, whose structure is as follows: Figure 3 As shown, it includes a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory, and the processor executes the computer program or instructions to implement the aforementioned power outage risk assessment method.

[0129] Based on the same inventive concept, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer storage medium, in which a computer program or instruction is stored. When the computer program or instruction is executed by a processor, the aforementioned power outage risk assessment method is implemented.

[0130] Based on the same inventive concept, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer program product, including a computer program or instructions, which implement the aforementioned power outage risk assessment method when executed by a processor.

[0131] Finally, it should be noted that the above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, it is still possible for those skilled in the art to modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments or to make equivalent substitutions for some of the technical features therein. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for assessing power outage risk, characterized in that: include: Based on the collected power outage related data, real-time power outage analysis and judgment are performed to obtain real-time power outage analysis and judgment results; wherein the real-time power outage analysis and judgment results include specific power outage events and their information; Comprehensive power outage analysis is performed based on real-time power outage analysis results and business data to obtain comprehensive power outage analysis results, that is, the power outage and restoration time, power outage nature, and improved power outage events; Collect real-time data of distribution network equipment for anomaly detection, and conduct comprehensive analysis based on real-time power outage assessment results and comprehensive power outage assessment results to predict power outage risks; Among them, the collection of power outage related data includes: Power outage related data include power outage monitoring data, medium and low voltage model data, and auxiliary analysis data; Collect real-time data from the distribution automation system, dispatching automation system and power consumption information collection system to obtain power outage monitoring data; Collect real-time data from the power grid resource business center and marketing SG186 system, and combine it with the power grid topology information to obtain medium and low voltage model data; Collect real-time data from the power grid resource business center and power supply service command system to obtain auxiliary analysis data; Based on the power outage related data, real-time power outage analysis and judgment are carried out to obtain real-time power outage analysis and judgment results, including: Conduct real-time power outage analysis based on distribution automation system data, power consumption information collection system data, and power grid topology information to determine line power outage events; Real-time power outage analysis and judgment are performed based on the transformer power outage signal in the distribution automation system data and the substation power outage signal in the power consumption information collection system, and two single distribution transformer power outage analysis and judgment results are obtained; the two single distribution transformer power outage analysis and judgment results are cross-checked to comprehensively determine whether it is a single distribution transformer power outage event; Real-time power outage analysis is performed based on the line switch position change signal in the distribution automation system data and the household meter power outage signal in the power consumption information collection system data, and two low-voltage line power outage analysis results are obtained. The two low-voltage line power outage analysis results are cross-checked to comprehensively determine whether it is a low-voltage line power outage event; Real-time power outage analysis is performed based on the low-voltage power outage signal in the distribution automation system data and the household power outage signal in the electricity consumption information collection system, and two low-voltage single-household power outage analysis results are obtained; the two low-voltage single-household power outage analysis results are cross-checked to comprehensively determine whether it is a low-voltage single-household power outage event; Among them, the specific power outage events include line power outage events, single distribution transformer power outage events, low-voltage line power outage events and single-user power outage events.

2. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 1, characterized in that: Real-time power outage analysis and judgment is carried out based on the data of the distribution automation system, the data of the power consumption information collection system and the grid topology information to determine the line power outage event and obtain the line power outage event information, including: The line switch position change signal in the distribution automation system data is used as the starting condition of the line power outage event to generate the line power outage event; According to the maintenance plan information received by the distribution automation system, the nature of the power outage event of the line power outage is determined; wherein the nature of the power outage includes fault power outage and planned power outage; When a line power outage event is generated, the line switch position change time and the earliest position change time of the line switch are used as the power outage start time of the line power outage event, and the power outage interval after feeder automation analysis at the power outage location is used as the power outage range of the line power outage event; After the feeder automation analysis, the information affected by the line power outage event is correlated according to the grid topology information to obtain the correlation information of the line power outage event; Among them, when the distribution automation system does not receive the line switch change signal sent by the substation fusion terminal, if the distribution automation system or the electricity consumption information collection system receives a transformer power outage signal, it will trace the upper power supply point of the power outage point in combination with the power grid topology information and generate a line power outage event.

3. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 2, characterized in that: According to the signal received by the distribution automation system, the type of power outage of the line power outage event is determined, including: When the distribution automation system receives the protection signal and the position change signal sent by the line switch at the same time, the power outage nature of the line power outage event is recorded as a fault power outage; When maintenance work causes the medium-voltage line switch to change position, the distribution automation system records the line switch change signal and generates power outage information of the line power outage event based on the line switch change signal; then the distribution automation system records the power outage nature of the line power outage event as a planned power outage.

4. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 1, characterized in that: According to the transformer outage signal in the distribution automation system data and the area outage signal in the power consumption information collection system, real-time power outage analysis and judgment are carried out to obtain two single distribution transformer outage analysis and judgment results, including: When the distribution automation system receives the transformer power outage signal sent by the substation fusion terminal, the distribution automation system analyzes the transformer power outage signal to generate a transformer power outage event; if there is only one transformer in the line where the transformer is located and there is a power outage, it is determined to be a single distribution transformer power outage event, and the power outage time of this transformer is used as the power outage start time of the single distribution transformer power outage event; When the substation main meter in the electricity consumption information collection system sends a substation power outage signal to the distribution automation system, the distribution automation system analyzes the substation power outage signal to generate a transformer power outage event; if there is only one transformer on the line where the transformer is located and there is a power outage, it is determined to be a single distribution transformer power outage event, and the power outage time of this transformer is used as the power outage start time of the single distribution transformer power outage event.

5. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 1, characterized in that: According to the line switch position change signal in the distribution automation system data and the household meter power outage signal in the power consumption information collection system data, real-time power outage analysis and judgment are carried out to obtain two low-voltage line power outage analysis and judgment results, including: When the substation fusion terminal sends the low-voltage line switch position change signal to the distribution automation system, it is determined to be a low-voltage line power outage event, and the low-voltage branch line switch status information in the same period as the low-voltage line switch position change signal is obtained, and the power outage range of the low-voltage line power outage event is generated in combination with the grid topology information; Based on the power consumption information collection system, the household power outage signals reported by multiple low-voltage HPLC meters under the distribution transformer are received, and the low-voltage user power outage is classified as a low-voltage line power outage event according to the transformer-box-household relationship model.

6. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 1, characterized in that: According to the low-voltage power outage signal in the distribution automation system data and the household power outage signal in the electricity consumption information collection system, real-time power outage analysis and judgment are carried out to obtain two low-voltage single-household power outage analysis and judgment results, including: Based on the transformer-box-household relationship model, when the intelligent terminal in the substation reports a low-voltage power outage signal to the distribution automation system and only one low-voltage user in the substation has a power outage, it is determined to be a low-voltage single-user power outage event; Based on the transformer-box-household relationship model, when the user information collection system receives the household power outage signal reported by the low-voltage HPLC meter and only one low-voltage user in the substation area has a power outage, it is determined to be a low-voltage single-user power outage event.

7. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 1, characterized in that: Comprehensive power outage analysis is performed based on real-time power outage analysis results and business data, including: Based on the real-time power outage analysis results and combined with the comprehensive analysis of the signals from the power consumption information collection system, the power outage and restoration time corresponding to the specific power outage event is determined; Based on the real-time power outage analysis results, multiple power outage nature determinations are performed on the specific power outage event in combination with business data to obtain multiple nature determination results, and the power outage nature of the specific power outage event is determined through mutual verification of the multiple nature determination results; Based on the real-time power outage analysis results, combined with the grid topology information, outage area load and business data, the missing power outage events, the false alarms of power outage events and the incorrect power outage scope are verified and supplemented; Power outage events and power outage ranges that are misjudged due to the incorrect sending of power outage signals are eliminated.

8. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 7, characterized in that: Based on the real-time power outage analysis results and combined with the comprehensive analysis of the signals from the power consumption information collection system, the power outage and restoration time corresponding to the specific power outage event is determined, including: In the process of power restoration, the situation of segmented power transmission is taken into account, and the power restoration signal time of the transformer in different power outage ranges is used as the power restoration time of the specific power outage event; For transformers that have not received the power-on signal, the power-on time of the specific power outage event is completed according to the power outage event verification and completion rules, and the power-on time of the last transformer is used as the power-on time of the specific power outage event; If the low-voltage power supply is restored through load transfer or other measures, the low-voltage power supply restoration time will be used as the power restoration time of the specific power outage event.

9. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 7, characterized in that: Based on the real-time power outage analysis results, multiple power outage nature determinations are performed on specific power outage events in combination with business data to obtain multiple nature determination results, including: Performing protection action signal determination and maintenance plan matching determination on specific power outage events respectively to confirm the power outage nature of the specific power outage event; wherein the power outage nature includes fault power outage and planned power outage; Match the specific power outage event with the work ticket, distribution switching operation ticket in the PMS3.0 system, and the dispatching operation instruction ticket in the OMS system, and determine the nature of the specific power outage event based on the successfully matched ticket type; The specific power outage event is associated and matched with the 95598 power outage announcement in the PMS3.0 system, power supply service command micro-application, and marketing system, as well as the scope of influence of the power outage announcement. The nature and cause of the power outage of the specific power outage event are determined based on the reason for the power outage announcement. The specific power outage event is associated and matched with the 95598 user repair work order, the proactive emergency repair work order and the 12398 work order to determine whether the nature of the power outage of the specific power outage event is a fault power outage; at the same time, the cause of the power outage is automatically determined based on the fault cause reported by the emergency repair personnel.

10. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 7, characterized in that: The protection action signal judgment and maintenance plan matching judgment are respectively carried out for the specific power outage event to confirm the power outage nature of the specific power outage event, including: For a specific power outage event based on the switch trip signal reported by the distribution automation system, determine whether the switch trip signal matches the corresponding protection action signal to determine whether the power outage nature of the specific power outage event is a fault power outage; The specific power outage event is sequentially correlated and matched with the maintenance plan of the PMS3.0 system and the OMS system, as well as the scope of influence of the maintenance plan, to determine whether the nature of the power outage of the specific power outage event is a planned power outage.

11. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 7, characterized in that: Based on the real-time power outage analysis results, combined with the grid topology information, outage area load and business data, the missing power outage events, the false alarms of power outage events and the incorrect power outage range are verified and supplemented, including: In the case of a real power outage, and neither the power distribution automation system nor the power consumption information collection system reports a power outage signal, a power outage event missing check is performed based on the corresponding business data, power outage scope, and transformer load data to determine whether a power outage actually occurred. If so, a corresponding specific power outage event is generated in combination with the corresponding actual power outage and restoration time for completion; In the case of a real power outage, and no switch position change signal from the distribution automation system is received, and the power outage signal reported by the power consumption information collection system is incomplete, it is determined whether there is a load loss in other transformers under the power outage line based on the line-transformer relationship, and then whether the power outage range is missed; if missing, it means that the power outage range is missed, and the missed power outage range is automatically supplemented and a specific power outage event and its power outage range are generated; In the case that there is a power outage but no power restoration in the power outage signal reported by the power consumption information collection system, determine whether there is a power restoration signal reported by other distribution transformer power outage events within the same power outage range; if so, the power restoration time of the corresponding specific power outage event is completed according to the last transformer power restoration signal within the same power outage range; if not, the power restoration time of the corresponding specific power outage event is completed according to the load recovery time of the transformer.

12. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 7, characterized in that: Eliminate power outage events and power outage ranges caused by misjudgment of power outage signals, including: Eliminate the false alarm power outage signals that meet the predetermined conditions from the line switch position change signals received in the dispatching automation system data, the line switch position change signals received in the distribution automation system data, and the substation power outage signals received in the power consumption information collection system data; Screen out short-term power outage events based on the power outage start time and power outage recurrence time, and eliminate short-term power outage events; In response to false alarms of power outage signals and load transfer, a comprehensive analysis of specific power outage events is conducted based on the power outage range and 96-point load data in the power consumption information collection system. Specific power outage events that are greater than or equal to the scheduled power outage time are selected, and it is determined whether the transformer corresponding to the specific power outage event has a voltage loss. If not, it means that the transformer has not actually been cut off, and the transformer that has not actually been cut off is eliminated.

13. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 12, characterized in that: Eliminate the false alarm power outage signals that meet the predetermined conditions from the line switch position change signals received from the dispatching automation system data, the line switch position change signals received from the distribution automation system data, and the substation power outage signals received from the power consumption information collection system data, including: If the type of the switch opening signal is a test signal, the corresponding power outage signal is eliminated in combination with the line load curve or the distribution transformer outgoing line load curve; If the switch reclosing is successful and the corresponding transformer load is not lost, the corresponding power outage signal is eliminated; If it is determined that the power outage signal has not been restored, the repeatedly reported power outage signal will be shielded; If the reported power outage signal jitters frequently, the reported power outage signal will be shielded.

14. A method for assessing power outage risk according to claim 1, characterized in that: Collect real-time data of distribution network equipment for anomaly detection, and conduct comprehensive analysis based on real-time power outage assessment results and comprehensive power outage assessment results to predict power outage risks, including: Use real-time stream processing technology to monitor the real-time data of multiple distribution network devices in real time; Based on the real-time power outage assessment results and the comprehensive power outage assessment results, the machine learning algorithm is used to detect anomalies in the real-time data of multiple distribution network equipment, identify abnormal data points that do not conform to the normal pattern, and then obtain potential power outage risks; Based on the potential power outage risk, combined with the trend analysis of historical power outage data and real-time data of multiple distribution network equipment, the comprehensive power outage risk is predicted; the comprehensive power outage risk level includes low risk, medium risk and high risk; Different response measures are set according to different levels of comprehensive power outage risks. When the predicted comprehensive power outage risk level is high, the early warning mechanism is triggered for immediate response. Among them, distribution network equipment includes: distribution automation system, electricity consumption information collection system, dispatching automation system, and power grid resource business middle platform.

15. A power outage risk assessment system, characterized in that: include: A real-time power outage analysis unit is used to perform real-time power outage analysis based on the collected power outage related data to obtain real-time power outage analysis results; wherein the real-time power outage analysis results include specific power outage events and their information; The comprehensive power outage judgment unit is used to perform comprehensive power outage judgment based on real-time power outage judgment results and business data to obtain comprehensive power outage judgment results, that is, to obtain the power outage and restoration time, power outage nature, and the improved power outage event; The prediction unit is used to collect real-time data of distribution network equipment for abnormal detection, and conduct comprehensive analysis based on the real-time power outage assessment results and the comprehensive power outage assessment results to predict the power outage risk; Among them, the collection of power outage related data includes: Power outage related data include power outage monitoring data, medium and low voltage model data, and auxiliary analysis data; Collect real-time data from the distribution automation system, dispatching automation system and power consumption information collection system to obtain power outage monitoring data; Collect real-time data from the power grid resource business center and marketing SG186 system, and combine it with the power grid topology information to obtain medium and low voltage model data; Collect real-time data from the power grid resource business center and power supply service command system to obtain auxiliary analysis data; Based on the power outage related data, real-time power outage analysis and judgment are carried out to obtain real-time power outage analysis and judgment results, including: Conduct real-time power outage analysis based on distribution automation system data, power consumption information collection system data, and power grid topology information to determine line power outage events; Real-time power outage analysis and judgment are performed based on the transformer power outage signal in the distribution automation system data and the substation power outage signal in the power consumption information collection system, and two single distribution transformer power outage analysis and judgment results are obtained; the two single distribution transformer power outage analysis and judgment results are cross-checked to comprehensively determine whether it is a single distribution transformer power outage event; Real-time power outage analysis is performed based on the line switch position change signal in the distribution automation system data and the household meter power outage signal in the power consumption information collection system data, and two low-voltage line power outage analysis results are obtained. The two low-voltage line power outage analysis results are cross-checked to comprehensively determine whether it is a low-voltage line power outage event; Real-time power outage analysis is performed based on the low-voltage power outage signal in the distribution automation system data and the household power outage signal in the electricity consumption information collection system, and two low-voltage single-household power outage analysis results are obtained; the two low-voltage single-household power outage analysis results are cross-checked to comprehensively determine whether it is a low-voltage single-household power outage event; Among them, the specific power outage events include line power outage events, single distribution transformer power outage events, low-voltage line power outage events and single-user power outage events.

16. An electronic device, characterized in that: It includes a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory, and the processor executes the computer program or instructions to implement a power outage risk assessment method as described in any one of claims 1-14.

17. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program or instruction, and when the computer program or instruction is executed by a processor, a power outage risk assessment method as described in any one of claims 1-14 is implemented.

18. A computer program product comprising a computer program or instructions, characterized in that When the computer program or instruction is executed by the processor, a power outage risk assessment method as described in any one of claims 1-14 is implemented.

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