Power market development level evaluation method

Abstract

The invention provides a power market development level evaluation method, which belongs to the technical field of power market evaluation, and comprises the following steps of: obtaining power market development level index data of evaluated objects in each region in a certain region, normalizing and weighting to obtain a normalized weighting matrix, and further calculating positive and negative ideal solutions of each index to obtain a power market development level evaluation result. And the chord distance is calculated and the comprehensive evaluation value of each evaluated object is finally calculated, and the evaluated objects in each region are sorted according to the value, so that the power market development level difference between different regions is intuitively and accurately represented. According to the method, the evaluation indexes of the two parties of the electricity market are integrated as original data, and the electricity market development levels of different regions in the current region can be comprehensively reflected.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power market evaluation, and specifically relates to a method for evaluating the development level of a power market. Background Art

[0002] With the high-quality development of the power market, the evaluation of power market development has become an important research field. Carrying out the evaluation of the level of power market development is of great significance for optimizing the allocation of power resources and promoting the clean and low-carbon transformation of energy. First of all, as an important part of the national energy system, the level of development of the power market is directly related to energy security and economic and social development. Improve the adaptability of the power market to a high proportion of new energy, and establish a cost recovery mechanism for power generation capacity according to local conditions. Secondly, the quantitative results of the level of power market development can provide a scientific basis for policy making, help regulators and market participants identify the advantages and disadvantages of market development, so as to formulate and adjust policies more targetedly and promote the healthy and efficient operation of the power market. In addition, through the development of evaluation models and case verification, the risks of the power market can be comprehensively evaluated, providing quantitative support for the stable operation of the power market and policy adjustments. In summary, the evaluation of the level of power market development is a key link in achieving the optimal allocation of power resources and promoting the high-quality development of the power industry, and it plays an important role in building a market mechanism that adapts to the new power system.

[0003] Patent document CN112330190A proposes a method for constructing a power market operation monitoring index system, including determining monitoring content, formulating monitoring indicators, inputting monitoring data, calculating scores and outputting scoring results, realizing the quantitative scoring of the power market operation status, providing a scientific basis for market supervision, improving the transparency and supervision efficiency of the power market, and contributing to the stability and healthy development of the market. Patent document CN112580933 A discloses a power market health evaluation method, device and terminal equipment, which obtains the transaction data of the power market, calculates the effective index of the market using a preset effective index calculation formula, and evaluates the market health accordingly, providing a power market health evaluation model based on an effective index, which can reflect the effectiveness of the transaction organization and the overall health of the market, and helps to optimize the transaction organization, improve the market operation efficiency, and promote the long-term stability of the power market. Patent document CN115936504A provides an evaluation method, which obtains the total income and total cost of power market transactions by selecting income indicators and cost indicators, calculates the cost-benefit ratio and net income, provides data support for evaluating the market operation effect, optimizes the allocation of power resources through the evaluation results, promotes the consumption of new energy, and improves the operation efficiency and benefits of the power market. Patent document CN117933222A introduces a policy consistency index model, mines the policy text to be evaluated, constructs a multi-input-output framework, and carries out the calculation and quantitative analysis of the policy consistency index. It scientifically evaluates the status quo and effect of the power market reform policy, provides tool support for policy optimization, objectively reflects the advantages and disadvantages of the policy through quantitative analysis, and provides a scientific basis for policy adjustment and optimization. Patent document CN117610978A constructs a power market value evaluation method and system based on multi-dimensional collaboration, and evaluates through the steps of obtaining market information, building an evaluation index system, model construction and evaluation standard formulation, realizing the full value index evaluation of the power market, providing quantitative tips for market operation risks, and promoting the healthy and orderly development of the market through evaluation results, reducing market risks, and improving the comprehensive value of the power market. Existing research content evaluates the power market from multiple angles such as power market monitoring indicators, health evaluation, comprehensive vitality index assessment, power market operation effect evaluation, policy consistency index model, and multi-dimensional collaborative value evaluation, but does not conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the power market development level. Currently, various results have been evaluated from the perspectives of power market operation level and revenue situation, but the evaluation of power market development needs to be further carried out. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the shortcomings of the existing methods, the present invention proposes a method for evaluating the development level of the power market, which introduces data from both the supply and demand sides of the power market to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the development level of the power market.

[0005] In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:

[0006] A method for evaluating the development level of an electricity market, the method comprising the following steps:

[0007] Step 1: Collect the power market development level indicator data of each evaluation object and construct the initial power market development level indicator data matrix;

[0008] Step 2: The initial indicator data matrix of the power market development level is dimensionlessly processed to obtain a normalized data matrix;

[0009] Step 3: Based on the normalized data matrix, calculate the weight of the power market development level indicator of each evaluated object;

[0010] Step 4: Calculate a normalized weighted matrix based on the normalized data matrix and the weights of the power market development level indicators of each evaluated object, and then calculate the positive and negative ideal solutions of the power market development level indicators of each evaluated object;

[0011] Step 5: Calculate the comprehensive evaluation value and sort the evaluated objects according to the comprehensive evaluation value.

[0012] Furthermore, the power market development level indicators of each evaluated object include: participation of electricity users, participation of electricity users in terms of electricity consumption, growth rate of members of power generation enterprises and growth rate of members of power consumption enterprises. The calculation method of each indicator is:

[0013] Electricity user participation rate = number of market players participating in the electricity consumption side / total number of registered market players on the electricity consumption side;

[0014] Electricity user participation rate = electricity consumption directly traded in the market by the electricity user side / market-based electricity consumption by the electricity user side;

[0015] Growth rate of power generation enterprise members = number of newly registered members of power generation market entities per month / number of registered members of all power generation market entities;

[0016] The growth rate of electricity-consuming enterprise members = the number of newly registered members of market entities on the electricity-consuming side / the number of registered members of all market entities on the electricity-consuming side.

[0017] Furthermore, the initial indicator data matrix of the power market development level is normalized according to the following formula:

[0018]

[0019] Among them, a ij represents the jth initial indicator data of the ith electricity market, b ij Represents the jth normalized indicator data of the ith electricity market.

[0020] Furthermore, the weight of the power market development level indicator of each evaluated object is:

[0021]

[0022] in, and are the mean and standard deviation of the jth indicator, w j is the j-th indicator weight.

[0023] Furthermore, the normalized weighting matrix is ​​constructed as follows:

[0024]

[0025] The positive and negative ideal solutions of the power market development level indicators of each evaluated object are determined according to the following formula:

[0026]

[0027] in, It means taking the maximum value of each indicator. Indicates taking the minimum value of each indicator, x + represents a positive ideal solution, x ― represents a negative ideal solution.

[0028] Further, based on the normalized weighted matrix and the positive and negative ideal solutions, the positive and negative sine distances between the power market development level indicators of each evaluated object and its positive and negative ideal solutions are determined according to the following formulas:

[0029]

[0030] in Calculation symbols a=[a1,…,a n ] T ,b=[b1,…,b n ] T , is the sine distance, is the negative sine distance;

[0031] Based on the sine distance and the negative sine distance, the comprehensive evaluation value η of each evaluated object i Confirmed according to the following formula:

[0032]

[0033] Among them, η i Represents the comprehensive evaluation value of the development level of the ith electricity market.

[0034] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0035] A comprehensive evaluation method is adopted to obtain a total of four electricity market development level evaluation indicators from both the supply and demand sides of the electricity market, give full play to the influence of both the supply and demand sides on the market development level, and avoid one-sided defects in the evaluation results by calculating the linear distance between each evaluated object and the positive and negative ideal solutions. The effectiveness of the method is verified through examples. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0036] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for evaluating the level of development of the electricity market according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0037] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0038] Example

[0039] See also Figure 1 , the power market development level evaluation method specifically includes the following steps:

[0040] 1) Collect indicator data and construct the initial indicator data matrix of the power market development level.

[0041] Specifically, the data of the power market development level indicators of the evaluated objects in each region in a certain area are collected, specifically the participation degree of electricity users, the participation degree of electricity users' electricity consumption, the growth rate of members of power generation enterprises and the growth rate of members of electricity users. The calculation formulas of each indicator are as follows:

[0042] Electricity user participation rate = number of market players participating in the electricity consumption side / total number of registered market players on the electricity consumption side;

[0043] Electricity user participation rate = electricity consumption directly traded in the market by the electricity user side / market-based electricity consumption by the electricity user side;

[0044] Growth rate of power generation enterprise members = number of newly registered members of power generation market entities per month / number of registered members of all power generation market entities;

[0045] The growth rate of electricity-consuming enterprise members = the number of newly registered members of market entities on the electricity-consuming side / the number of registered members of all market entities on the electricity-consuming side.

[0046] Through the above calculation method, the following initial indicator data matrix is ​​constructed:

[0047] A=[a ij ] m×n (1)

[0048] In this embodiment, i=1, 2, ..., m; j=1, 2, ..., n; m=18; n=4.

[0049] The initial indicator values ​​of each evaluated object are shown in Table 1 below, where t1 is the participation rate of electricity users, t2 is the participation rate of electricity users in terms of electricity quantity, t3 is the growth rate of members of power generation enterprises, and t4 is the growth rate of members of electricity consuming enterprises.

[0050] Table 1 Initial values ​​of indicator data

[0051] Electricity Market t1 t2 t3 t4 P1 0.25 0.29 0.07 0.06 P2 0.25 0.14 0.1 0.09 P3 0.09 0.23 0.05 0.09 P4 0.25 0.07 0.09 0.08 P5 0.26 0.1 0.09 0.09 P6 0.26 0.2 0.06 0.05 P7 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.05 P8 0.28 0.08 0.1 0.1 P9 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.05 P10 0.17 0.17 0.07 0.1 P11 0.21 0.13 0.1 0.1 P12 0.25 0.09 0.08 0.07 P13 0.09 0.3 0.1 0.05 P14 0.17 0.21 0.08 0.06 P15 0.22 0.16 0.05 0.09 P16 0.21 0.06 0.07 0.09 P17 0.08 0.23 0.05 0.1 P18 0.14 0.15 0.09 0.1

[0052] 2) Normalization.

[0053] Specifically, the above four indicators are all positive indicators, and the following formula is used to normalize the data of each indicator:

[0054]

[0055] In this embodiment, a ij represents the jth initial indicator data of the ith electricity market, b ij Represents the jth normalized index data of the ith electricity market, i=1,2,…,m; j=1,2,…,n; m=18; n=4.

[0056] The results are shown in Table 2.

[0057] Table 2 Normalization results of four indicators

[0058] Electricity Market t1 t2 t3 t4 P1 0.076 0.105 0.049 0.042 P2 0.076 0.051 0.07 0.063 P3 0.027 0.083 0.035 0.063 P4 0.076 0.025 0.063 0.056 P5 0.079 0.036 0.063 0.063 P6 0.079 0.072 0.042 0.035 P7 0.018 0.029 0.07 0.035 P8 0.085 0.029 0.07 0.07 P9 0.021 0.025 0.056 0.035 P10 0.051 0.062 0.049 0.07 P11 0.063 0.047 0.07 0.07 P12 0.076 0.033 0.056 0.049

[0059] Table 2 Normalization results of four indicators

[0060] Electricity Market t1 t2 t3 t4 P13 0.027 0.109 0.07 0.035 P14 0.051 0.076 0.056 0.042 P15 0.066 0.058 0.035 0.063 P16 0.063 0.022 0.049 0.063 P17 0.024 0.083 0.035 0.07 P18 0.042 0.054 0.063 0.07

[0061] 3) Calculate the weight of each indicator.

[0062] Specifically, the weight w of the power market development level index of each evaluated object is calculated based on the values ​​in Table 2: j , the formula is as follows:

[0063]

[0064] in, and are the mean and standard deviation of the jth indicator respectively. The larger the standard deviation, the greater the volatility of the indicator's value, the more information it can reflect, and the stronger the evaluation strength of the indicator itself, the more weight it obtains. Determining the weight according to the difference information size of the indicator can more truly reflect the difference information size of the value within the indicator than the standard deviation method.

[0065] The results are shown in Table 3.

[0066] Table 3 Data weights of four indicators

[0067] index t1 t2 t3 t4 Weight 0.298 0.355 0.164 0.183

[0068] 4) Construct a normalized weighted matrix and positive and negative ideal solutions.

[0069] Specifically, based on the values ​​in Table 2 and Table 3, a normalized weighted matrix is ​​constructed and the positive and negative ideal solutions of the four indicators of the power market development level of each evaluated object are calculated.

[0070] The normalized weight matrix is:

[0071]

[0072] The results are shown in Table 4.

[0073] Table 4 Normalized weight matrix numerical table

[0074] Electricity Market t1 t2 t3 t4 P1 0.022 0.037 0.008 0.008 P2 0.022 0.018 0.011 0.012 P3 0.008 0.03 0.006 0.012 P4 0.022 0.009 0.01 0.01 P5 0.023 0.013 0.01 0.012 P6 0.023 0.026 0.007 0.006 P7 0.005 0.01 0.011 0.006 P8 0.025 0.01 0.011 0.013 P9 0.006 0.009 0.009 0.006 P10 0.015 0.022 0.008 0.013 P11 0.019 0.017 0.011 0.013 P12 0.022 0.012 0.009 0.009 P13 0.008 0.039 0.011 0.006 P14 0.015 0.027 0.009 0.008 P15 0.02 0.021 0.006 0.012 P16 0.019 0.008 0.008 0.012 P17 0.007 0.03 0.006 0.013 P18 0.013 0.019 0.01 0.013

[0075] The positive and negative ideal solutions of the power market development level indicators of the evaluated objects are calculated using the following formula:

[0076]

[0077] in, It means taking the maximum value of each indicator. Indicates taking the minimum value of each indicator, x + represents a positive ideal solution, x ― represents a negative ideal solution.

[0078] The results are shown in Table 5.

[0079] Table 5 Positive and negative ideal solution values

[0080] index t1 t2 t3 t4 Positive ideal solution 0.025 0.039 0.011 0.013 Negative ideal solution 0.005 0.008 0.006 0.006

[0081] 5) Calculate the comprehensive evaluation value and ranking.

[0082] Specifically, based on the normalized weighted matrix numerical table (Table 4) and the positive and negative ideal solution numerical table (Table 5), the chord distance between the power market development level index of each evaluated object and its positive and negative ideal solution is calculated. The calculation formula is:

[0083]

[0084] in Calculation symbols a=[a1,…,a n ] T ,b=[b1,…,b n ] T , is the sine distance, is the negative sine distance.

[0085] Common comprehensive evaluation methods based on Euclidean distance, when dealing with evaluation results with large correlation between indicators, Euclidean distance will have certain deviations. Although improving Euclidean distance through Mahalanobis distance can solve the deviation results to a certain extent, Mahalanobis distance also has limitations. When the number of evaluation indicators is greater than the number of items, the calculation result of Mahalanobis distance will also lose its effectiveness. This application adopts the method of chord distance to describe the degree of distance by calculating the angle between data, which effectively solves the defects of Euclidean distance and Mahalanobis distance.

[0086] Based on the positive and negative sine distances, the comprehensive evaluation value of each evaluated object is calculated:

[0087]

[0088] Among them, η i It is a comprehensive evaluation value of the development level of the electricity market.

[0089] The results are sorted from large to small based on the comprehensive evaluation values, and are shown in Table 6.

[0090] Table 6 Sorting results

[0091] Electricity Market Sine distance Negative sine distance Comprehensive evaluation value Ranking P1 0.033 1 0.968 1 P14 0.167 0.863 0.838 2 P6 0.202 0.827 0.804 3 P13 0.254 0.774 0.753 4 P3 0.437 0.586 0.573 5 P17 0.454 0.569 0.556 6 P2 0.486 0.536 0.524 7 P15 0.492 0.53 0.518 8 P10 0.588 0.431 0.423 9 P8 0.634 0.384 0.377 10 P5 0.639 0.379 0.372 11 P11 0.645 0.373 0.367 12 P12 0.715 0.301 0.296 13

[0092] Table 6 Sorting results

[0093] Electricity Market Sine distance Negative sine distance Comprehensive evaluation value Ranking P4 0.739 0.277 0.273 14 P18 0.822 0.191 0.188 15 P16 0.836 0.177 0.175 16 P7 0.981 0.029 0.029 17 P9 1 0.009 0.009 18

[0094] From the evaluation results, the evaluated object P1 ranks first in comprehensive ranking, with a comprehensive evaluation value of 0.968, which indicates that the object has the highest level of power market development. The corresponding evaluated object P9 has the smallest comprehensive evaluation value of 0.009, and ranks last in comprehensive evaluation value, which indicates that the object has the lowest level of power market development. From the initial indicator values ​​of the four indicator data (Table 1), it can be seen that the indicators of object P1 are larger, while the indicators of object P9 are smaller, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

[0095] Through the constructed power market development level indicator system and the adopted comprehensive evaluation method, the comprehensive evaluation of the power market development level in the designated area is proved by example.

[0096] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, which are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention rather than to limit it. Any modification, improvement, other modification or equivalent replacement made to the technical solution of the present invention by ordinary technicians in this field, as long as they do not depart from the spirit and scope of the technical solution of the present invention, should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the level of development of the power market, characterized in that: The method comprises the following steps: Step 1: Based on the calculation formula of the power market development level index of each evaluated object, construct the initial index data matrix of the power market development level; Step 2: The initial indicator data matrix of the power market development level is dimensionlessly processed to obtain a normalized data matrix; Step 3: Based on the normalized data matrix, calculate the weight of the power market development level indicator of each evaluated object; Step 4: Calculate a normalized weighted matrix based on the normalized data matrix and the weights of the power market development level indicators of each evaluated object, and then calculate the positive and negative ideal solutions of the power market development level indicators of each evaluated object; Step 5: Calculate the comprehensive evaluation value and sort the evaluated objects according to the comprehensive evaluation value.

2. A method for evaluating the level of power market development according to claim 1, characterized in that: The power market development level indicators of each evaluated object include: participation of electricity users, participation of electricity users in terms of electricity consumption, growth rate of members of power generation enterprises and growth rate of members of power consumption enterprises. The calculation method of each indicator is as follows: Electricity user participation rate = number of market players participating in the electricity consumption side / total number of registered market players on the electricity consumption side; Electricity user participation rate = electricity consumption directly traded in the market by the electricity user side / market-based electricity consumption by the electricity user side; Growth rate of power generation enterprise members = number of newly registered members of power generation market entities per month / number of registered members of all power generation market entities; The growth rate of electricity-consuming enterprise members = the number of newly registered members of market entities on the electricity-consuming side / the number of registered members of all market entities on the electricity-consuming side.

3. A method for evaluating the level of power market development according to claim 2, characterized in that: The initial indicator data matrix of the power market development level is normalized according to the following formula: Among them, a ij represents the jth initial indicator data of the ith electricity market, b ij Represents the jth normalized indicator data of the ith electricity market.

4. A method for evaluating the level of power market development according to claim 3, characterized in that: The weights of the power market development level indicators of each evaluated object are: in, and are the mean and standard deviation of the jth indicator, w j is the j-th indicator weight.

5. A method for evaluating the level of power market development according to claim 4, characterized in that: The normalized weight matrix is ​​constructed as follows: The positive and negative ideal solutions of the power market development level indicators of each evaluated object are determined according to the following formula: in, It means taking the maximum value of each indicator. Indicates taking the minimum value of each indicator, x + represents a positive ideal solution, x ― represents a negative ideal solution.

6. A method for evaluating the level of power market development according to claim 5, characterized in that: Based on the normalized weighted matrix and the positive and negative ideal solutions, the positive and negative sine distances between the power market development level indicators of each evaluated object and its positive and negative ideal solutions are determined according to the following formula: in Calculation symbols is the sine distance, is the negative sine distance; Based on the sine distance and the negative sine distance, the comprehensive evaluation value η of each evaluated object i Confirmed according to the following formula: Among them, η i Represents the comprehensive evaluation value of the development level of the ith electricity market.

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