Photovoltaic development potential assessment method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention provides a photovoltaic development potential assessment method and device, electronic equipment and a storage medium, and relates to the technical field of electric power. According to the specific implementation scheme, a theoretical developable area in a first area is evaluated according to the slope direction, the gradient, the altitude and the masked condition of mountain shadows of all land parcels in the first area. Secondly, considering attribute limitation information of each land parcel, and determining a technical developable area in the theoretical developable area; calculating the technical developable area and the technical development installed capacity of each land parcel in the area, clustering each land parcel to obtain a plurality of groups, selecting a target group by using the land parcel concentration degree of each group, and determining the technical development installed capacity of each land parcel based on the technical developable area and the technical development installed capacity of each land parcel in the target group. And the technology developable area and the technology development installed capacity of the concentrated development area of the photovoltaic technology are obtained. By adopting the method and the system, the centralized development area of the photovoltaic technology can be optimized, and the photovoltaic development potential can be accurately evaluated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of electric power technology, and in particular to a photovoltaic development potential assessment method, device, electronic equipment and storage medium. Background Art

[0002] With the transformation of the global energy structure and the vigorous development of renewable energy, centralized photovoltaic power generation, as a key link in clean energy, has become the focus of current research on the evaluation and optimization of its development potential. The successful implementation of centralized photovoltaic power generation projects not only depends on abundant solar energy resources, but is also restricted by multiple factors such as land, terrain, roads, existing power stations, environment, and grid access conditions. Therefore, accurately evaluating the development potential of centralized photovoltaic resources is of great significance for scientific planning, efficient use of land resources, and promoting the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry.

[0003] At present, the industry generally uses the geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis method to evaluate the development potential of large-scale centralized photovoltaic resources. This method comprehensively considers multiple factors such as resource distribution, land use type, terrain conditions, road accessibility, existing power station layout, environmental protection requirements, and grid access capabilities. Through multi-layer overlay calculation and analysis, it preliminarily defines the scope of photovoltaic resources that can be developed. This technical solution has been widely used in the site selection and planning of photovoltaic projects, providing strong support for scientific decision-making of projects.

[0004] However, although the existing centralized photovoltaic resource development potential assessment method based on GIS spatial analysis has achieved certain results, it still has obvious shortcomings when dealing with specific environmental factors. Specifically, the existing technology has the following shortcomings:

[0005] The impact of mountain shadows is not fully considered. In the actual operation of photovoltaic power stations, mountain shadows will reduce sunlight, thus affecting the power generation efficiency of photovoltaic power stations. However, the existing evaluation methods do not include this important factor of mountain shadows in the development potential evaluation system, resulting in deviations in the estimation of expected power generation. This defect is particularly prominent in mountainous areas or areas with complex terrain, which seriously affects the accuracy of the evaluation results.

[0006] The installed capacity scale prediction model lacks sufficient basis. At present, the installed capacity scale prediction of most centralized photovoltaic projects is mainly calculated based on empirical values. This empirical prediction method often lacks scientific basis and ignores many important factors in centralized photovoltaic power station projects, such as the specific land use of photovoltaic array layout, the location and scale of substations and operation management centers, the land use of collection lines, and the land use of on-site roads. As a result, the evaluation results of photovoltaic planning scale are not accurate enough, making it difficult to guide the scientific planning and efficient implementation of projects.

[0007] There is a lack of effective intelligent algorithms to remove scattered plots. When identifying continuous areas suitable for centralized photovoltaic development, existing technical solutions fail to effectively deal with the problem of scattered plots and it is difficult to accurately remove these areas that are not conducive to large-scale development. This not only greatly increases the complexity of the assessment work, but may also cause the omission or improper assessment of high-quality development resources, affecting the efficient allocation of resources.

[0008] In summary, the existing centralized photovoltaic resource development potential assessment method based on GIS spatial analysis has obvious shortcomings in dealing with specific environmental factors. It is necessary to overcome these shortcomings through optimization of technical solutions to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the assessment. Summary of the invention

[0009] The present invention provides a method, device, electronic device and storage medium for evaluating photovoltaic development potential, which can solve at least one of the above technical problems.

[0010] According to one aspect of the present invention, a method for evaluating photovoltaic development potential is provided, comprising:

[0011] Determine a theoretically developable area in the first area based on the solar energy resource endowment, aspect, slope, altitude and mountain shadow coverage of each plot in the first area;

[0012] Determining a technically developable area in the theoretically developable area based on the attribute restriction information of each plot in the theoretically developable area;

[0013] Based on the technically developable area of ​​each plot in the technically developable area and the overall land area of ​​the photovoltaic field station with a specified power generation capacity, determine the technical development installed capacity of each plot in the technically developable area;

[0014] Clustering the plots in the technically developable area to obtain a plurality of plot groups;

[0015] Determining a target group from among the plurality of plot groups based on the plot concentration levels of the respective plot groups;

[0016] Based on the technically developable area and technical development installed capacity of each plot in the target group, the predicted developable area and predicted development installed capacity of the target development area are determined.

[0017] According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a photovoltaic development potential assessment device, comprising:

[0018] A first region determination module, for determining a theoretically developable region in the first region based on solar energy resource endowment, aspect, slope, altitude, and mountain shadow coverage of each plot in the first region;

[0019] A second area determination module is used to determine a technically developable area in the theoretically developable area based on the attribute restriction information of each plot in the theoretically developable area;

[0020] An installed capacity determination module, for determining the technical development installed capacity of each plot in the technically developable area based on the technically developable area of ​​each plot in the technically developable area and the overall land area of ​​the photovoltaic field station of the specified power generation;

[0021] A plot clustering module, used for clustering the plots in the technically developable area to obtain a plurality of plot groups;

[0022] A target group determination module, configured to determine a target group from among the plurality of land parcel groups based on the land parcel concentration levels of each of the land parcel groups;

[0023] The target information determination module is used to determine the predicted developable area and predicted development installed capacity of the target development area based on the technically developable area and technical development installed capacity of each plot in the target group.

[0024] According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided an electronic device, comprising:

[0025] at least one processor; and

[0026] a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein,

[0027] The memory stores instructions that can be executed by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor so that the at least one processor can execute any photovoltaic development potential assessment method in the embodiments of the present invention.

[0028] According to another aspect of the present invention, a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions is provided, wherein the computer instructions are used to enable the computer to execute any photovoltaic development potential assessment method according to the embodiments of the present invention.

[0029] By adopting the technical solution of the present invention, the theoretical developable area in the first area is evaluated by using the slope aspect, slope, altitude and mountain shadow of each plot in the first area, which introduces the mountain shadow impact information and can optimize the theoretical developable area. Secondly, on the basis of the theoretical developable area, the attribute restriction information of each plot in the area is considered to determine the technical developable area. Then, the technical developable area and technical development installed capacity of each plot in the technical developable area are calculated, and each plot is clustered to obtain multiple plot groups. The target group is selected by using the concentration of the plots of each plot group. The technical developable area and technical development installed capacity of each plot in the target group are summed up respectively, and the technical developable area and technical development installed capacity of the photovoltaic technology concentrated development area (target development area) can be obtained. Therefore, the present invention can optimize the photovoltaic technology concentrated development area and accurately evaluate the photovoltaic development potential of the area.

[0030] It should be understood that the contents described in this section are not intended to identify the key or important features of the embodiments of the present invention, nor are they intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Other features of the present invention will become easily understood through the following description. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0031] The accompanying drawings are used to better understand the present invention and do not constitute a limitation of the present invention.

[0032] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a photovoltaic development potential assessment method according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0033] Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of calculating mountain shadow shielding according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0034] Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of the minimum circumscribed circle of a land parcel group according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0035] Figure 4 is a structural block diagram of a photovoltaic development potential assessment device according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0036] Figure 5 It is a block diagram of an electronic device used to implement the photovoltaic development potential assessment method according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0037] The following is a description of exemplary embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, including various details of the embodiments of the present invention to facilitate understanding, which should be considered as merely exemplary. Therefore, it should be appreciated by those of ordinary skill in the art that various changes and modifications may be made to the embodiments described herein without departing from the scope of the present invention. Similarly, for clarity and conciseness, descriptions of well-known functions and structures are omitted in the following description.

[0038] Figure 1 4 is a flow chart of a photovoltaic development potential assessment method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0039] like Figure 1 As shown, the photovoltaic development potential assessment method may include:

[0040] S110, determining a theoretically developable area in the first area based on the solar energy resource endowment, aspect, slope, altitude, and mountain shadow coverage of each plot in the first area;

[0041] S120, determining a technically developable area in the theoretically developable area based on the attribute restriction information of each plot in the theoretically developable area;

[0042] S130, based on the technically developable area of ​​each plot in the technically developable area and the overall land area of ​​the photovoltaic field station with the specified power generation, determine the technical development installed capacity of each plot in the technically developable area;

[0043] S140, clustering the plots in the technically developable area to obtain a plurality of plot groups;

[0044] S150, determining a target group from a plurality of plot groups based on the plot concentration levels of each plot group;

[0045] S160, determining the predicted developable area and predicted development installed capacity of the target development area based on the technically developable area and technical development installed capacity of each plot in the target group.

[0046] Exemplarily, the first region may be a city-level region, a provincial region, a southern region or a national region, etc.

[0047] For example, the solar energy resource endowment of a plot of land can be classified according to the following Table 1:

[0048] Table 1 Annual Horizontal Total Radiation (GHR) Levels

[0049] grade <![CDATA[Hierarchical threshold (kWh / m 2 )]]> Binarization The richest GHR ≥ 1750 1 Very rich 1750>GHR≥1400 1 Rich 1400>GHR≥1050 1 generally 1050>GHR 0

[0050] For example, in addition to considering the solar energy resource endowment, the development of photovoltaic power stations must also fully consider the topographical features, including elevation, slope, slope direction, mountain shadow and other factors. Different slope directions have different effects on the number of sunshine hours and the intensity of solar radiation. In the northern hemisphere, the south slope receives the most solar radiation, followed by the southeast slope and the southwest slope, then the east slope and the west slope, and finally the north slope.

[0051] For example, the slope of the plot can be classified according to the following Table 2:

[0052] Table 2 Slope suitability classification

[0053]

[0054]

[0055] It is understandable that as the slope increases, the difficulty and cost of installing a photovoltaic power station will increase accordingly. At the same time, the slope will also affect the angle at which light is incident on the surface of the photovoltaic module. A slope of <15° is optimal, and the maximum is not recommended to exceed 25°.

[0056] For example, the slope of the plot can also be classified according to the following Table 3:

[0057] Table 3 Slope suitability classification

[0058] Slope aspect Grading threshold (°) Binarization Flat slope 0-5 1 Gentle slope 5-15 1 Slope 15-25 1 steep slope 25-35 0 Steep slope 35 and above 0

[0059] In practical applications, the impact of altitude on the development of centralized photovoltaic power stations is mainly reflected in temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and construction difficulty. Therefore, when evaluating the development potential of centralized photovoltaic power stations, it is necessary to fully consider the altitude factor and determine the appropriate altitude range based on actual conditions. Generally speaking, areas with low to medium altitudes are suitable for photovoltaic development, while in high-altitude areas, special caution is required and corresponding technical and management measures should be taken to ensure the stable operation and efficient power generation of the power station. The highest altitude is not recommended to exceed 5000m.

[0060] For example, the altitude of the plots can be graded according to the following Table 4:

[0061] Table 4 Altitude suitability classification

[0062] grade Classification threshold (m) Binarization Plains 0-500 1 Hilly Area 500-1000 1 Mountainous areas 1000-3000 1 Plateau area 3000-5000 1 Extremely high areas More than 5000 0

[0063] In practical applications, mountain shadows are an important factor that reduces the efficiency of photovoltaic power generation. When a photovoltaic station is blocked by mountain shadows, photovoltaic modules will not receive sufficient solar radiation during a specific period of time, thereby reducing their power generation efficiency. To ensure the efficient operation of photovoltaic power stations, according to the relevant provisions of the photovoltaic power station design specifications, the layout of photovoltaic modules needs to ensure that they are not blocked from 9:00 to 15:00 every day (based on local true solar time).

[0064] For example, in order to more accurately evaluate and manage the impact of mountain shadows on photovoltaic stations, the present invention specifically proposes to classify mountain shadows into two levels:

[0065] The first is the area without mountain shadows. The photovoltaic modules in this area can completely avoid being blocked by mountain shadows from 9:00 to 15:00 every day, thus ensuring that the photovoltaic modules can continuously and stably receive solar radiation and achieve efficient energy conversion.

[0066] The second is the area affected by mountain shadows. In contrast to the area without mountain shadows, the photovoltaic modules in this area will be blocked by the shadows of the mountains during the above period, resulting in a reduction in the amount of solar radiation received, which in turn affects the power generation efficiency.

[0067] According to the local true solar time requirements from 9:00 to 15:00 every day, the solar altitude angle and azimuth angle are calculated using the solar position algorithm. Combined with the terrain model, the solar radiation situation is simulated, and the coverage of the mountain shadow of each unit space grid and its degree of shielding to the photovoltaic power station are calculated, and marked according to Table 5.

[0068] Table 5 Impact of mountain shadow

[0069] grade Binarization No mountain shadow 1 Affected by the mountain shadow 0

[0070] For example, for the above step S110, the theoretically developable area in the first area may be determined according to the following conditions, that is, a theoretically developable area map may be obtained.

[0071] 1. Solar energy resource endowment: The annual total horizontal radiation of the sun (GRH) should be greater than 1050kWh / m 2 To ensure that the photovoltaic panels receive sufficient sunlight resources;

[0072] 2. Terrain suitability includes:

[0073] 2.1. The slope direction is selected from southeast to southwest (i.e. within the range of 112.5°-247.5°) to ensure maximum utilization of sunlight resources;

[0074] 2.2. The maximum slope should be limited to less than 25° to ensure the economy, safety and stability of photovoltaic station construction;

[0075] 2.3. The altitude shall not exceed 5000m to avoid the influence of extreme climate and terrain conditions on the operation of the power station;

[0076] 2.4. Ensure that the power generation efficiency is guaranteed by not being affected by mountain shadows during the period from 9:00 to 15:00 local true solar time.

[0077] According to the above factors, the layer data corresponding to each factor in the first area are respectively obtained, and processed according to the conditions of each factor, so as to obtain a theoretical developable area map of the first area.

[0078] For example, based on the map of theoretically developable areas, the maximum technically developable area in the map is determined by comprehensively considering the land use status (arable land, forest land, wetlands, lakes and rivers, construction land) of each area in the map, the "three lines and one list" management and control units, nature reserves, permanent basic farmland use policies and other attribute restriction information.

[0079] For example, the attribute restriction information may include whether the land parcel is a "three lines and one list" control unit. According to the "three lines and one list" control data, clear boundaries are defined for the development activities in the region. By following these boundaries, it can be ensured that the site selection of centralized photovoltaic land will not break the bottom line of the ecological protection red line, thereby ensuring the ecological safety of the region.

[0080] For example, for photovoltaics (clean energy), according to the requirements of the access list, key control units and general control units can be moderately developed, and the development mark is "1". See Table 6 below.

[0081] Table 6 Analysis of restrictions on the “three lines and one order” control unit

[0082] Limitation Binarization Priority protection units (including ecological protection red lines) 0 Key control unit 1 General control unit 1

[0083] Exemplarily, the attribute restriction information may include whether the plot of land is a nature reserve. According to the requirements of laws and regulations, development is strictly restricted in key areas such as the core area and buffer zone of nature reserves to ensure the integrity and stability of the ecosystem. At the same time, considering that nature reserves are more sensitive to environmental changes, strong light reflection from photovoltaic panels should be avoided to disturb them. Therefore, the present invention sets a "buffer zone" of a corresponding distance for nature reserves, and photovoltaic power stations cannot be built in the buffer zone to reduce the impact on nature reserves. See Table 7 for details.

[0084] Table 7 Analysis of restrictions on nature reserves

[0085] Limitation Binarization Within the nature reserve 0 Within 1000m of the nature reserve 0 Outside the 1000m radius of a nature reserve 1

[0086] For example, the attribute restriction information may include whether the land parcel includes basic farmland. Basic farmland is an important foundation for food production. According to laws and regulations, it is strictly prohibited to occupy basic farmland. Therefore, the agreed scope of basic farmland is a strictly prohibited occupation area, which is marked as "0". See Table 8 for details.

[0087] Table 8 Analysis of restrictions on basic farmland

[0088] Limitation Binarization Within the scope of basic farmland 0 Outside the scope of basic farmland 1

[0089] Exemplarily, the attribute restriction information may include the land use status information of the plot. The embodiment of the present invention explicitly excludes cultivated land, wetland, glacier and permanent snow land, forest land, and water body land. At the same time, considering that the embodiment of the present invention is for the development of centralized photovoltaic stations, the land scale is large, and construction land is also not considered.

[0090] The embodiments of the present invention give priority to the planning and development of centralized photovoltaic stations using bare land. Bare land generally refers to unused or undeveloped land resources, which are usually located in remote areas or areas not suitable for other development activities, and are suitable for the construction of clean energy projects such as photovoltaic power generation.

[0091] At the same time, the embodiment of the present invention focuses on the evaluation of "maximization" technology development potential. Therefore, on the premise of ensuring ecological safety and compliance, grasslands and bushes are also included in the evaluation scope of development potential. Although these areas have certain ecological functions, through scientific and reasonable planning and design, a win-win situation of photovoltaic power generation and ecological protection can be achieved.

[0092] For example, the land use status information of the plot can be classified into Table 9.

[0093] Table 9 Analysis of current land use restrictions

[0094] Land cover type Binarization arable land 0 Wetlands 0 Glaciers and permanent snow 0 woodland 0 Construction land 0 Water 0 Grassland and bushes 1 Bare Land 1

[0095] In the embodiment of the present invention, an evaluation system for technically exploitable areas is constructed based on the evaluation system for theoretically exploitable areas. In order to ensure the maximum development of centralized photovoltaic resources, a series of restrictive conditions are clearly set for the evaluation system for technically exploitable areas, which need to meet the characteristic types marked as "1" in Tables 6 to 9 to ensure the compliance and sustainability of development activities in technically exploitable areas.

[0096] In some examples, the indicators in Tables 1 to 9 above can be processed using a GIS spatial overlay method for each layer data in the map of the first area to obtain a map of the technically developable area in the first area.

[0097] Furthermore, a cluster analysis is performed on the various plots in the technically developable area to determine the target development area where photovoltaic resources can be concentratedly developed, that is, the area composed of the various plots in the above target group.

[0098] Then, the technically developable area and technical development installed capacity of each plot in the target development area are summed up respectively to determine the technically developable area and technical development installed capacity of the target development area, that is, the photovoltaic development potential of the target development area where photovoltaic resources can be concentratedly developed.

[0099] According to the above-mentioned embodiment, the theoretically developable area in the first area is evaluated by using the aspect, slope, altitude and mountain shadow of each plot in the first area, which introduces the mountain shadow influence information and can optimize the theoretically developable area. Secondly, on the basis of the theoretically developable area, the attribute restriction information of each plot in the area is considered to determine the technically developable area. Then, the technically developable area and technical development installed capacity of each plot in the technically developable area are calculated, and each plot is clustered to obtain multiple plot groups. The concentration of plots in each plot group is used to select the target group, and the technically developable area and technical development installed capacity of each plot in the target group are summed up respectively, so as to obtain the technically developable area and technical development installed capacity of the photovoltaic technology concentrated development area (target development area). Therefore, the present invention can optimize the photovoltaic technology concentrated development area and accurately evaluate the photovoltaic development potential of the area.

[0100] In one embodiment, the method further includes: rasterizing the first area to obtain a plurality of unit space grids; performing the following first operation for each unit space grid: determining the mountain shadow shielding condition of the unit space grid during the photovoltaic power generation period according to the solar altitude angle and azimuth angle corresponding to the unit space grid during the preset photovoltaic power generation period; determining the mountain shadow shielding condition of each plot in the first area based on the mountain shadow shielding condition of each unit space grid during the photovoltaic power generation period.

[0101] For example, by setting all elevation points within the shielding radius in the direction of incident sunlight (i.e., the direction of the sun’s azimuth at this moment), if the elevation angle (i.e., the terrain shielding angle) formed by the elevation of a certain DEM grid point and the elevation of the test point is greater than the sun’s altitude angle in the incident direction, then the test point is shielded by the mountain shadow and is marked as “0”; otherwise, the test point is visible and marked as “1”. Figure 2 As shown, it is determined whether point P is under the shadow of the mountain. Since the altitude angle of o3 is greater than the altitude angle of the sun, point P is invisible and marked as "0". Figure 2 Here, East represents the east direction, South represents the south direction, and Z represents the direction perpendicular to the plane.

[0102] For example, the present invention is based on a digital elevation model and adopts a terrain visibility analysis algorithm. The spatial resolution of the DEM data is used as the basic unit distance length. Starting from point P, each increase of ΔL in the unit distance along the incident direction corresponds to a horizontal coordinate increment L. x =ΔL×sinA, corresponding to the vertical coordinate increment L y =ΔL×cosA, and the elevation increment ΔH of each distance ΔL along the direction of the solar azimuth angle is ΔL×tanH. The specific formula is as follows:

[0103] L x =ΔL×sinA

[0104] L y =ΔL×cosA

[0105] ΔH=ΔL×tanH

[0106] Among them, ΔL is the increase in unit length along the direction of solar incidence, A is the solar azimuth, and H is the solar altitude.

[0107] For example, taking the point P to be measured as the starting point and ΔL as the unit distance length, the shielding of the grid point elevation to the point P is calculated along the direction of sun incidence, if:

[0108] Z(X p +n×L x , Y p +n×L y )-Q>Z(X p ,Y p )+n×ΔH

[0109] If the value is 0, it means that point P is shaded by the surrounding objects and is marked as "0". Otherwise, point P can be illuminated by sunlight and is marked as "1".

[0110] In the formula, Z(X p ,Y p ) is the elevation at the coordinates of point P, Q is the correction factor for the earth’s curvature, and n is a multiple of the unit distance ΔL.

[0111] According to the above implementation, the extent to which each plot of land is obscured by mountain shadows can be accurately determined, so as to subsequently decide whether the plot of land should be included in the theoretically developable area for photovoltaic development.

[0112] After obtaining the above-mentioned technically developable area, the technically developable area of ​​the technically developable area should be calculated in the following way.

[0113] In one embodiment, the above method may also include: based on the terrain, photovoltaic array installation method, photovoltaic power generation efficiency, latitude information and photovoltaic boost level of each sub-region in the technically developable area, respectively correcting the historical unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically developable area to obtain the corrected unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically developable area; performing linear interpolation on the corrected unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically developable area to obtain a unit land area change map of the technically developable area; based on the unit land area change map of the technically developable area, calculating the technically developable area of ​​each plot in the technically developable area.

[0114] In one embodiment, based on the terrain, photovoltaic array installation method, photovoltaic power generation efficiency, latitude information and photovoltaic boost level of each sub-region in the technically exploitable area, the historical unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically exploitable area is corrected respectively, and the calculation formula for the corrected unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically exploitable area is as follows:

[0115] K 修正 =a+b·i+c·j+d·η+e·φ+f·v+g·K 历史 +ξ

[0116] Among them, K 修正 To correct the land area per unit capacity, i is the terrain, j is the PV array installation method, η is the PV power generation efficiency, φ is the latitude information, v is the PV boost level, a, b, c, d, e, f and g are regression coefficients, and ξ is the error constant.

[0117] Understandably, data normalization is performed on the topography, photovoltaic array installation method, photovoltaic power generation efficiency, latitude information, and photovoltaic boost level of each sub-area in the technically developable area.

[0118] For each of the above sub-regions, the historical unit capacity land area of ​​the sub-region can be corrected based on the normalized values ​​corresponding to the sub-region's terrain, photovoltaic array installation method, photovoltaic power generation efficiency, latitude information and photovoltaic boost level to obtain the corrected unit capacity land area of ​​the sub-region.

[0119] According to the above implementation mode, the real data of the land area and installed capacity of historical centralized photovoltaic power stations are used, combined with the slope, installation method, efficiency, latitude and boost level data corresponding to the real site, to conduct a multivariate regression analysis and construct a revised unit capacity land use indicator.

[0120] In one embodiment, the modified unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-area in the technically developable area is linearly interpolated to obtain a calculation formula for a unit land area change map of the technically developable area as follows:

[0121] K=A+(BA)×(φ c -φ a ) / φ b

[0122] Where K represents the unit land area of ​​the designated photovoltaic station area in the technically exploitable area, A represents the unit land area of ​​the photovoltaic station area at the first latitude that has the same power generation efficiency and is adjacent to the designated photovoltaic station area, B represents the unit land area of ​​the photovoltaic station area at the second latitude that has the same power generation efficiency and is adjacent to the designated photovoltaic station area, φ cIndicates the latitude of the designated PV station area, φ a represents the first latitude, φ b Indicates the second latitude, the first latitude is smaller than the second latitude.

[0123] According to the above implementation mode, the corrected unit land use index at different latitudes is calculated by adopting the linear interpolation method, so as to construct a unit land area change map with different slopes, different installation methods, different efficiencies and different boosting levels within the latitude range covering the above-mentioned technically developable area.

[0124] Relying on this change map, the embodiment of the present invention can simulate the maximum theoretical developable capacity of each independent plot of land under different installation methods, different boosting levels and different power generation efficiencies on the digital map of the technically developable area based on the data of the latitude, slope and technically developable area of ​​each independent plot of land, thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of the prediction and providing strong support for the construction and selection of centralized photovoltaics.

[0125] Similarly, for the theoretically developable area in the first region, the above implementation method may also be used to calculate its theoretically developable area.

[0126] In one embodiment, based on the technically developable area of ​​each plot in the technically developable area and the total land area of ​​the photovoltaic field station of the specified power generation, the technical development installed capacity of each plot in the technically developable area is determined respectively, including: determining a first coefficient based on the specified power generation; dividing the product of the technically developable area of ​​the plot and the first coefficient by the total land area of ​​the photovoltaic field station of the specified power generation to obtain the technical development installed capacity of the plot.

[0127] For example, if the designated power generation capacity is 10 MW, the first coefficient is 10, and if the designated power generation capacity is 100 MW, the first coefficient is 100.

[0128] For example, the technical development installed capacity of a plot of land may be determined by the following formula:

[0129] P=(S i,j,η,φ,v ×10)÷K i,j,η,φ,v

[0130] Where P is the predicted theoretical / technical development installed capacity (MW), S is i,j,η,φ,v is the technically exploitable area (hm 2 ), K i,j,η,φ,v The total land area of ​​a 10MW photovoltaic station (hm2) 2), i is the terrain area where the PV station is located, j is the PV array installation method of the PV station (which can be at least one of fixed, single-axis tracking, inclined single-axis tracking and dual-axis tracking), η is the photovoltaic power generation efficiency (%), φ is the latitude of the construction location (°), and v is the photovoltaic boost level (for example, 10kV, 35 / 66kV, 110kV, 220kV or 330kV).

[0131] Similarly, for the theoretically developable area in the first area, the above implementation method can also be used to calculate its theoretical development installed capacity.

[0132] After obtaining the above-mentioned technically developable area, a cluster analysis can be performed on the plots in the area to determine the target development area for the development of centralized photovoltaic projects.

[0133] In the development process of centralized photovoltaic projects, in view of the highly intensive requirements for land use, the need for efficient collection of collection lines, and the overall economic considerations of the project, the embodiments of the present invention further analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of the technically developable areas, and select concentrated areas that are more conducive to the large-scale development of centralized photovoltaic power station projects, namely the above-mentioned target development areas, so as to achieve large-scale and intensive planning and site selection of centralized sites.

[0134] In order to solve the adverse effects of scattered plots on centralized photovoltaic development, the embodiment of the present invention adopts spatial clustering analysis technology to intelligently classify and screen each plot in the technically developable area, and then defines a comprehensive concentration index to determine the concentration degree of the plots, and finally screens out large continuous areas suitable for centralized photovoltaic development.

[0135] For example, in the above step of clustering the plots in the technically developable area to obtain a plurality of plot groups, the clustering may be specifically performed as follows:

[0136] Applying the spatial clustering analysis algorithm, with the locations of existing substations as cluster centers, the plots in the technically developable area are divided into different groups, and the concentration of the groups is evaluated based on the number and density of plots within the groups.

[0137] The computational technique exploits the distances of each plot in the region to the K cluster centers and assigns the plot to the group to which the closest cluster center belongs.

[0138] According to the experience of regional centralized photovoltaic project development, when the distance between the project and the substation is greater than 20km, the transmission cost and the difficulty of maintaining the transmission line will be greatly increased. Therefore, the technically developable plots that are more than 20km away from all existing power stations are screened out, the initial cluster centers are randomly selected, and the plots are assigned to the newly added groups. Within the technically developable area, by continuously updating the cluster center as the coordinate mean of the group, a more reasonable group division is found, so that the plots in the group are more clustered, until the new cluster center no longer changes or changes very little.

[0139] After obtaining a plurality of plot groups according to the above embodiment, the following second operation may be performed on each plot group to obtain the plot concentration degree of each plot group.

[0140] Exemplarily, the second operation includes: determining a plot density index of a plot group based on the ratio between the number of plots in the plot group and the minimum circumscribed circle area, and the uniformity of the plot areas of the plot group; determining a plot compactness index of the plot group based on the technically developable area of ​​each plot in the plot group and the minimum circumscribed circle area; determining a plot concentration degree of the plot group based on the plot density index and the plot compactness index of the plot group.

[0141] For example, Figure 3 As shown in the figure, it is a schematic diagram of the minimum circumscribed circle of a group of plots. The group minimum circumscribed circle method is used to provide calculation data for the concentration of plots in the group. With the cluster center of each group as the center, a minimum circumscribed circle that can just contain all the plots in the group is drawn.

[0142] For example, the plot density index reflects the number of plots within a unit circumscribed circle area and the uniformity of the plot area distribution. A higher plot density index may mean that the plots are more concentrated in space.

[0143] For example, the land density index ADI can be calculated using the following formula:

[0144]

[0145] Where N represents the number of plots in the group, S i represents the technically developable area of ​​the i-th plot in the group (i represents the plot number), S MCC Represents the area of ​​the smallest circumscribed circle of a group.

[0146] in, It is used to measure the relationship between the number of plots and the area of ​​the circumscribed circle. The more plots there are and the smaller the area of ​​the circumscribed circle, the larger the value is, indicating that the plots are more densely spaced.

[0147] is an adjustment factor that characterizes the uniformity of the plot area of ​​a plot group, i.e., it takes into account the uniformity of the plot area. If the plot area varies greatly, this value will decrease, reflecting the uneven distribution of plots.

[0148] For example, the plot compactness index reflects the ratio of the plot area to the area of ​​the minimum circumscribed circle, and the influence of the plot shape on compactness. A higher compactness index means that the plot shape is more regular and compact.

[0149] For example, the plot compactness index CI can be calculated using the following formula:

[0150]

[0151] In the formula, S i , S MCC The same as the definition in the above formula.

[0152] The index directly calculates the ratio of the total area of ​​the plots in the group to the area of ​​the smallest circumscribed circle. If the plots are closely packed and have regular shapes, the total area of ​​the plots will be close to the area of ​​the smallest circumscribed circle, and the compactness index will be higher.

[0153] For example, in order to comprehensively consider the concentration of plots in the plot group of the technically developable area, the present invention constructs a comprehensive concentration index ICI, i.e., the concentration of plots, which is as follows:

[0154] ICI=ADI×CI

[0155] This index combines the advantages of the plot density index and the compactness index, and can more comprehensively evaluate the concentration of technically developable groups. The higher the ICI value, the more dense and compact the technically developable plots in the county are in space, and the more regular the plot shapes are. Screening out areas with such distribution characteristics provides favorable conditions for the large-scale development of centralized photovoltaics.

[0156] According to the above implementation, the plot concentration is constructed as an important criterion for measuring the density and compactness of plots. The plot concentration takes into account multiple factors such as the number of plots in the group, the plot area, and the spatial form of the group. The larger the plot concentration value, the more concentrated and compact the spatial distribution of the group plots is, which is more conducive to the development of centralized photovoltaic projects.

[0157] Figure 4 It is a structural block diagram of a photovoltaic development potential assessment device according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0158] like Figure 4 As shown, the photovoltaic development potential assessment device may include:

[0159] A first region determination module 410 is used to determine a theoretically developable region in the first region based on the aspect, slope, altitude and mountain shadow coverage of each plot in the first region;

[0160] A second area determination module 420, configured to determine a technically developable area in the theoretically developable area based on the attribute restriction information of each plot in the theoretically developable area;

[0161] The installed capacity determination module 430 is used to determine the technical development installed capacity of each plot in the technically developable area based on the technically developable area of ​​each plot in the technically developable area and the total land area of ​​the photovoltaic field station of the specified power generation;

[0162] A plot clustering module 440 is used to cluster the plots in the technically developable area to obtain a plurality of plot groups;

[0163] A target group determination module 450, configured to determine a target group from among the plurality of land parcel groups based on the land parcel concentration levels of each of the land parcel groups;

[0164] The target information determination module 460 is used to determine the technically developable area and technically developed installed capacity of the target development area based on the technically developable area and technically developed installed capacity of each plot in the target group.

[0165] In one embodiment, the above device further comprises:

[0166] A rasterization module, used for rasterizing the first area to obtain a plurality of unit space grids;

[0167] The first shadow determination module is used to perform the following first operation for each of the unit space grids: determine the mountain shadow covering condition of the unit space grid in the photovoltaic power generation period according to the solar altitude angle and azimuth angle corresponding to the unit space grid in the preset photovoltaic power generation period;

[0168] The second shadow determination module is used to determine the mountain shadow shielding conditions of each plot in the first area based on the mountain shadow shielding conditions of each unit space grid during the photovoltaic power generation time period.

[0169] In one embodiment, the above device may further include:

[0170] A unit area correction module is used to correct the historical unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically exploitable area based on the terrain, photovoltaic array installation method, photovoltaic power generation efficiency, latitude information and photovoltaic boost level of each sub-region in the technically exploitable area, so as to obtain the corrected unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically exploitable area;

[0171] A linear interpolation module, used for performing linear interpolation on the modified unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-area in the technically developable area to obtain a unit land area change map of the technically developable area;

[0172] The land parcel area calculation module is used to calculate the technically developable area of ​​each land parcel in the technically developable area based on the unit land area change map of the technically developable area.

[0173] In one embodiment, based on the terrain, photovoltaic array installation method, photovoltaic power generation efficiency, latitude information and photovoltaic boost level of each sub-region in the technically exploitable area, the historical unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically exploitable area is corrected respectively, and the calculation formula for obtaining the corrected unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically exploitable area is as follows:

[0174] K 修正 =a+b·i+c·j+d·η+e·φ+f·v+g·K 历史 +ξ

[0175] Among them, K 修正 is the corrected unit capacity land area, i is the terrain, j is the photovoltaic array installation method, η is the photovoltaic power generation efficiency, φ is the latitude information, v is the photovoltaic boost level, a, b, c, d, e, f and g are regression coefficients, and ξ is the error constant.

[0176] In one embodiment, the linear interpolation of the modified unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-area in the technically developable area to obtain the calculation formula of the unit land area change map of the technically developable area is as follows:

[0177] K=A+(BA)×(φ c -φ a ) / φ b

[0178] Wherein, K represents the unit land area of ​​the designated photovoltaic station area in the technically exploitable area, A represents the unit land area of ​​the photovoltaic station area at the first latitude that has the same power generation efficiency and is adjacent to the designated photovoltaic station area, B represents the unit land area of ​​the photovoltaic station area at the second latitude that has the same power generation efficiency and is adjacent to the designated photovoltaic station area, φ c Indicates the latitude of the designated photovoltaic station area, φ a represents the first latitude, φ b Represents the second latitude, the first latitude is smaller than the second latitude.

[0179] In one implementation, the installed capacity determination module 430 is specifically configured to:

[0180] Based on the specified power generation, determining a first coefficient;

[0181] The technical development installed capacity of the plot of land is obtained by multiplying the technically developable area of ​​the plot of land by the first coefficient and dividing the result by the total land area of ​​the photovoltaic field station of the specified power generation capacity.

[0182] In one embodiment, a land parcel centralized evaluation module is further included, which is used to perform the following second operation on each of the land parcel groups, wherein the second operation includes:

[0183] Determine a plot density index of the plot group based on a ratio between the number of plots in the plot group and the area of ​​a minimum circumscribed circle and a uniformity of the plot areas of the plot group;

[0184] Determining a land parcel compactness index of the land parcel group based on the technically developable area of ​​each land parcel in the land parcel group and the minimum circumscribed circle area;

[0185] Based on the parcel density index and the parcel compactness index of the parcel group, the parcel concentration level of the parcel group is determined.

[0186] For the description of specific functions and examples of each module and submodule of the device in the embodiment of the present invention, reference can be made to the relevant description of the corresponding steps in the above method embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0187] In the technical solution of the present invention, the acquisition, storage and application of user personal information involved are in compliance with the provisions of relevant laws and regulations and do not violate public order and good morals.

[0188] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the present invention also provides an electronic device and a readable storage medium.

[0189] Figure 5A schematic block diagram of an example electronic device 800 that can be used to implement an embodiment of the present invention is shown. The electronic device is intended to represent various forms of digital computers, such as laptop computers, desktop computers, workstations, personal digital assistants, servers, blade servers, mainframe computers, and other suitable computers. The electronic device can also represent various forms of mobile devices, such as personal digital assistants, cellular phones, smart phones, wearable devices, and other similar computing devices. The components shown herein, their connections and relationships, and their functions are merely examples and are not intended to limit the implementation of the present invention described and / or required herein.

[0190] like Figure 5 As shown, the device 800 includes a computing unit 801, which can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to a computer program stored in a read-only memory (ROM) 802 or a computer program loaded from a storage unit 808 into a random access memory (RAM) 803. In the RAM 803, various programs and data required for the operation of the device 800 can also be stored. The computing unit 801, the ROM 802, and the RAM 803 are connected to each other via a bus 804. An input / output (I / O) interface 805 is also connected to the bus 804.

[0191] A number of components in the device 800 are connected to the I / O interface 805, including: an input unit 806, such as a keyboard, a mouse, etc.; an output unit 807, such as various types of displays, speakers, etc.; a storage unit 808, such as a disk, an optical disk, etc.; and a communication unit 809, such as a network card, a modem, a wireless communication transceiver, etc. The communication unit 809 allows the device 800 to exchange information / data with other devices through a computer network such as the Internet and / or various telecommunication networks.

[0192] The computing unit 801 may be a variety of general and / or special processing components with processing and computing capabilities. Some examples of the computing unit 801 include, but are not limited to, a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU), various dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) computing chips, various computing units running machine learning model algorithms, digital signal processors (DSPs), and any appropriate processors, controllers, microcontrollers, etc. The computing unit 801 performs the various methods and processes described above, such as a photovoltaic development potential assessment method. For example, in some embodiments, the photovoltaic development potential assessment method may be implemented as a computer software program, which is tangibly contained in a machine-readable medium, such as a storage unit 808. In some embodiments, part or all of the computer program may be loaded and / or installed on the device 800 via ROM 802 and / or a communication unit 809. When the computer program is loaded into RAM 803 and executed by the computing unit 801, one or more steps of the photovoltaic development potential assessment method described above may be performed. Alternatively, in other embodiments, the computing unit 801 may be configured to perform the photovoltaic development potential assessment method in any other appropriate manner (e.g., by means of firmware).

[0193] Various implementations of the systems and techniques described above herein can be implemented in digital electronic circuit systems, integrated circuit systems, field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), application specific integrated circuits (ASICs), application specific standard products (ASSPs), systems on chips (SOCs), load programmable logic devices (CPLDs), computer hardware, firmware, software, and / or combinations thereof. These various implementations can include: being implemented in one or more computer programs that can be executed and / or interpreted on a programmable system including at least one programmable processor, which can be a special purpose or general purpose programmable processor that can receive data and instructions from a storage system, at least one input device, and at least one output device, and transmit data and instructions to the storage system, the at least one input device, and the at least one output device.

[0194] The program code for implementing the method of the present invention can be written in any combination of one or more programming languages. These program codes can be provided to a processor or controller of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer or other programmable data processing device, so that the program code, when executed by the processor or controller, enables the functions / operations specified in the flow chart and / or block diagram to be implemented. The program code can be executed entirely on the machine, partially on the machine, partially on the machine as a stand-alone software package and partially on a remote machine, or entirely on a remote machine or server.

[0195] In the context of the present invention, a machine-readable medium may be a tangible medium that may contain or store a program for use by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system, device, or equipment. A machine-readable medium may be a machine-readable signal medium or a machine-readable storage medium. A machine-readable medium may include, but is not limited to, electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor systems, devices, or equipment, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. A more specific example of a machine-readable storage medium may include an electrical connection based on one or more lines, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing.

[0196] To provide interaction with a user, the systems and techniques described herein can be implemented on a computer having: a display device (e.g., a CRT (cathode ray tube) or LCD (liquid crystal display) monitor) for displaying information to the user; and a keyboard and pointing device (e.g., a mouse or trackball) through which the user can provide input to the computer. Other types of devices can also be used to provide interaction with the user; for example, the feedback provided to the user can be any form of sensory feedback (e.g., visual feedback, auditory feedback, or tactile feedback); and input from the user can be received in any form (including acoustic input, voice input, or tactile input).

[0197] The systems and techniques described herein may be implemented in a computing system that includes back-end components (e.g., as a data server), or a computing system that includes middleware components (e.g., an application server), or a computing system that includes front-end components (e.g., a user computer with a graphical user interface or a web browser through which a user can interact with implementations of the systems and techniques described herein), or a computing system that includes any combination of such back-end components, middleware components, or front-end components. The components of the system may be interconnected by any form or medium of digital data communication (e.g., a communication network). Examples of communication networks include: a local area network (LAN), a wide area network (WAN), and the Internet.

[0198] A computer system may include a client and a server. The client and the server are generally remote from each other and usually interact through a communication network. The relationship of client and server is generated by computer programs running on respective computers and having a client-server relationship with each other. The server may be a cloud server, a server of a distributed system, or a server combined with a blockchain.

[0199] It should be understood that the various forms of processes shown above can be used to reorder, add or delete steps. For example, the steps described in the present invention can be executed in parallel, sequentially or in different orders, as long as the desired results of the technical solution disclosed in the present invention can be achieved, and this document does not limit this.

[0200] The above specific implementations do not constitute a limitation on the protection scope of the present invention. It should be understood by those skilled in the art that various modifications, combinations, sub-combinations and substitutions can be made according to design requirements and other factors. Any modification, equivalent substitution and improvement made within the principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating photovoltaic development potential, characterized in that: include: Determine a theoretically developable area in the first area based on the solar energy resource endowment, aspect, slope, altitude and mountain shadow coverage of each plot in the first area; Determining a technically developable area in the theoretically developable area based on the attribute restriction information of each plot in the theoretically developable area; Based on the technically developable area of ​​each plot in the technically developable area and the overall land area of ​​the photovoltaic field station with a specified power generation capacity, determine the technical development installed capacity of each plot in the technically developable area; Clustering the plots in the technically developable area to obtain a plurality of plot groups; Determining a target group from among the plurality of plot groups based on the plot concentration levels of the respective plot groups; Based on the technically developable area and technical development installed capacity of each plot in the target group, the predicted developable area and predicted development installed capacity of the target development area are determined.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Also includes: rasterizing the first area to obtain a plurality of unit space grids; For each of the unit space grids, the following first operation is performed respectively: according to the solar altitude angle and azimuth angle corresponding to the unit space grid in the preset photovoltaic power generation time period, the mountain shadow covering condition of the unit space grid in the photovoltaic power generation time period is determined; Based on the mountain shadow shielding condition of each unit space grid during the photovoltaic power generation time period, the mountain shadow shielding condition of each plot in the first area is determined.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Also includes: Based on the terrain, photovoltaic array installation method, photovoltaic power generation efficiency, latitude information and photovoltaic boost level of each sub-region in the technically exploitable area, respectively correct the historical unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically exploitable area to obtain the corrected unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically exploitable area; Performing linear interpolation on the modified unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-area in the technically developable area to obtain a unit land area change map of the technically developable area; Based on the map of changes in unit land area in the technically developable area, the technically developable area of ​​each plot in the technically developable area is calculated.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that Based on the terrain, photovoltaic array installation method, photovoltaic power generation efficiency, latitude information and photovoltaic boost level of each sub-region in the technically exploitable area, the historical unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically exploitable area is corrected respectively, and the calculation formula for obtaining the corrected unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-region in the technically exploitable area is as follows: Among them, K 修正 is the modified unit capacity land area, i is the terrain, j is the photovoltaic array installation method, η is the photovoltaic power generation efficiency, is the latitude information, v is the photovoltaic boost level, a, b, c, d, e, f and g are regression coefficients, and ξ is an error constant.

5. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The calculation formula for performing linear interpolation on the modified unit capacity land area of ​​each sub-area in the technically developable area to obtain the unit land area change map of the technically developable area is as follows: Wherein, K represents the unit land area of ​​the designated photovoltaic station area in the technically exploitable area, A represents the unit land area of ​​the photovoltaic station area at the first latitude that has the same power generation efficiency and is adjacent to the designated photovoltaic station area, and B represents the unit land area of ​​the photovoltaic station area at the second latitude that has the same power generation efficiency and is adjacent to the designated photovoltaic station area. Indicates the latitude of the designated photovoltaic station area, represents the first latitude, Represents the second latitude, the first latitude is smaller than the second latitude.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The technical development installed capacity of each plot in the technically developable area is determined based on the technically developable area of ​​each plot in the technically developable area and the total land area of ​​the photovoltaic field station with a specified power generation, including: Based on the specified power generation, determining a first coefficient; The product of the technically developable area of ​​the plot of land and the first coefficient is divided by the total land area of ​​the photovoltaic field station with the specified power generation power to obtain the technical development installed capacity of the plot of land.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The method further includes performing the following second operation on each of the land parcel groups, wherein the second operation includes: Determining a plot density index of the plot group based on a ratio between the number of plots in the plot group and the area of ​​a minimum circumscribed circle and a uniformity of the plot areas of the plot group; Determining a land parcel compactness index of the land parcel group based on the technically developable area of ​​each land parcel in the land parcel group and the minimum circumscribed circle area; Based on the parcel density index and the parcel compactness index of the parcel group, the parcel concentration level of the parcel group is determined.

8. A photovoltaic development potential assessment device, comprising: A first region determination module, for determining a theoretically developable region in the first region based on solar energy resource endowment, aspect, slope, altitude, and mountain shadow coverage of each plot in the first region; A second area determination module is used to determine a technically developable area in the theoretically developable area based on the attribute restriction information of each plot in the theoretically developable area; An installed capacity determination module, for determining the technical development installed capacity of each plot in the technically developable area based on the technically developable area of ​​each plot in the technically developable area and the overall land area of ​​the photovoltaic field station of the specified power generation; A plot clustering module, used for clustering the plots in the technically developable area to obtain a plurality of plot groups; A target group determination module, configured to determine a target group from among the plurality of land parcel groups based on the land parcel concentration levels of each of the land parcel groups; The target information determination module is used to determine the predicted developable area and predicted development installed capacity of the target development area based on the technically developable area and technical development installed capacity of each plot in the target group.

9. An electronic device, comprising: at least one processor; as well as a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein, The memory stores instructions that can be executed by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor to enable the at least one processor to perform the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions, wherein: The computer instructions are used to cause the computer to execute the method according to any one of claims 1-7.

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