Automatic assessment method and device for overseas infectious disease input risk, medium and product

Abstract

The invention discloses an overseas infectious disease input risk automatic assessment method and device, a medium and a product, and relates to the field of infectious disease transmission. The method comprises the following steps: constructing an input risk assessment system of overseas infectious diseases by using an analytic hierarchy process; calculating weights of second and third indexes input into the risk assessment system based on a Delphi method; obtaining three-level index scores of various overseas infectious diseases for each sub-region in the to-be-researched region; determining the grade corresponding to the first-level index score according to the weights of the second-level and third-level indexes and the third-level index score, and obtaining the risk grade of various overseas infectious diseases input into each sub-region in the to-be-studied region by using a risk matrix method; and determining overseas infectious diseases which are the same as or similar to the outbreak overseas infectious diseases, and taking the determined risk level of the overseas infectious diseases as the risk level of inputting the outbreak overseas infectious diseases into each sub-region in the to-be-researched region. According to the invention, automatic assessment of overseas infectious disease input and transmission risks can be realized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of infectious disease transmission, and in particular to an automated assessment method, equipment, medium and product for the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad. Background Art

[0002] Imported infectious diseases refer to infectious diseases that do not exist in the country, have not yet been discovered, or have been eliminated but are introduced from abroad. As the risk of transmission of imported infectious diseases has greatly increased, it has brought new challenges to the prevention and control of infectious diseases.

[0003] Building a fast and efficient customized and automated assessment technology method for the transmission risk of imported infectious diseases is of great significance for the prevention and control of imported infectious diseases. At present, a series of imported infectious risk assessment models have been established for single diseases (new coronavirus infection, poliomyelitis, etc.), single transmission routes (respiratory infectious diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, etc.), and single entry methods (aviation, cruise ships, etc.), providing theoretical guidance for the prevention and control work in related fields. However, the existing imported infectious risk assessment models only provide a scientific assessment system and related indicators. The evaluation of specific indicators still needs to be based on the collection of relevant data such as epidemic outbreaks, population movement, sanitary conditions, economic conditions, climate and meteorology by professionals. It is difficult to achieve automated assessment, which seriously affects the timely implementation of imported infectious disease prevention and control work.

[0004] Therefore, it is urgent to establish an automated assessment model for the import and transmission risks of newly emerging and sudden infectious diseases from abroad, so as to provide technical support for the accurate monitoring and early warning of imported infectious diseases. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of this application is to provide a method, equipment, medium and product for automated assessment of the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad, which can realize automated assessment of the risk of imported and transmitted infectious diseases from abroad.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, this application provides the following solutions:

[0007] In a first aspect, the present application provides an automated assessment method for the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad, including: constructing an import risk assessment system for overseas infectious diseases using the analytic hierarchy process; calculating the weights of the secondary indicators and the weights of the tertiary indicators in the import risk assessment system based on the Delphi method; collecting the tertiary indicator data of various overseas infectious diseases in the area to be studied for each sub-area in the area to be studied, and performing grade classification to obtain the tertiary indicator scores of various overseas infectious diseases for each sub-area in the area to be studied; calculating the primary indicator scores of various overseas infectious diseases imported into each sub-area in the area to be studied based on the weights of the secondary indicators, the weights of the tertiary indicators and the tertiary indicator scores of various overseas infectious diseases for each sub-area in the area to be studied, and determining the grade corresponding to the primary indicator score; obtaining the risk level of various overseas infectious diseases imported into each sub-area in the area to be studied using the risk matrix method based on the grade corresponding to each primary indicator score; when an overseas infectious disease breaks out, determining the overseas infectious diseases whose virus similarity with the overseas infectious disease that broke out is greater than or equal to a preset threshold among the various collected overseas infectious diseases, and using the determined risk level of the overseas infectious disease imported into each sub-area in the area to be studied as the risk level of the overseas infectious disease that broke out in each sub-area in the area to be studied.

[0008] In a second aspect, the present application provides a computer device comprising: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement any of the above-mentioned methods for automatically assessing the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad.

[0009] In a third aspect, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements any of the above-mentioned methods for automatically assessing the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad.

[0010] In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements any of the above-mentioned methods for automatically assessing the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad.

[0011] According to the specific embodiments provided in this application, this application discloses the following technical effects:

[0012] The present application provides a method, equipment, medium and product for automated assessment of the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad. It uses the analytic hierarchy process to construct an import risk assessment system, assigns weights to each indicator based on the Delphi method and calculates the corresponding scores of various overseas infectious diseases. It combines the risk matrix method to automatically analyze and assess the import risks of various overseas infectious diseases, thereby achieving automated assessment of the risk of imported and transmitted infectious diseases from abroad. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0013] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0014] Figure 1 This is an application environment diagram of an automated risk assessment method for imported infectious diseases from abroad in one embodiment of the present application;

[0015] Figure 2 A flowchart of an automated risk assessment method for imported infectious diseases from abroad provided in one embodiment of the present application;

[0016] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a comprehensive input risk assessment system provided by another embodiment of the present application;

[0017] Figure 4 A simplified version of the input risk assessment system schematic diagram provided for another embodiment of the present application;

[0018] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of the structure of a computer device provided in one embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0019] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0020] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present application more obvious and easy to understand, the present application is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific implementation methods.

[0021] The automated assessment method for the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad provided in the embodiments of the present application can be applied to Figure 1In the application environment shown. Among them, the terminal 102 communicates with the server 104 through the network. The data storage system can store the data that the server 104 needs to process. The data storage system can be set up separately, integrated on the server 104, or placed on the cloud or other servers. The terminal 102 can send the outbreak of overseas infectious diseases to the server 104. After the server 104 receives the outbreak of overseas infectious diseases, for the outbreak of overseas infectious diseases, the server 104 uses the hierarchical analysis method to construct an import risk assessment system for overseas infectious diseases; calculates the weights of the secondary indicators and the weights of the tertiary indicators in the import risk assessment system based on the Delphi method; collects the tertiary indicator data of various overseas infectious diseases in the area to be studied for each sub-area in the area to be studied, and divides them into levels to obtain the tertiary indicator scores of various overseas infectious diseases for each sub-area in the area to be studied; according to the weights of the secondary indicators, the weights of the tertiary indicators and the weights of various overseas infectious diseases for the areas to be studied The third-level indicator score of each sub-region in the study area is calculated, the first-level indicator score of various overseas infectious diseases imported into each sub-region in the study area is calculated, and the level corresponding to the first-level indicator score is determined; according to the level corresponding to each first-level indicator score, the risk level of various overseas infectious diseases imported into each sub-region in the study area is obtained by using the risk matrix method; when an overseas infectious disease breaks out, the overseas infectious disease whose virus similarity with the overseas infectious disease that broke out is greater than or equal to the preset threshold is determined among the various overseas infectious diseases collected, and the risk level of the overseas infectious disease imported into each sub-region in the study area is determined as the risk level of the overseas infectious disease that broke out and is imported into each sub-region in the study area. The server 104 can feed back the obtained risk level of each sub-region of the overseas infectious disease that broke out to the terminal 102. In addition, in some embodiments, the method for automatically assessing the risk of overseas infectious diseases imported can also be implemented by the server 104 or the terminal 102 alone, such as the terminal 102 can directly perform an automated assessment of the risk of overseas infectious diseases imported for the overseas infectious diseases that broke out, or the server 104 can obtain the overseas infectious diseases that broke out from the data storage system and perform an automated assessment of the risk of overseas infectious diseases imported for the overseas infectious diseases that broke out.

[0022] The terminal 102 may be, but is not limited to, various desktop computers, laptop computers, smart phones, tablet computers, IoT devices, and portable wearable devices. The IoT devices may be smart speakers, smart TVs, smart air conditioners, smart vehicle-mounted devices, etc. The portable wearable devices may be smart watches, smart bracelets, head-mounted devices, etc. The server 104 may be implemented as an independent server or a server cluster consisting of multiple servers, or may be a cloud server.

[0023] In an exemplary embodiment, Figure 2As shown, a method for automatically assessing the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad is provided. The method is executed by a computer device, and can be executed by a computer device such as a terminal or a server alone, or can be executed by a terminal and a server together. In the embodiment of the present application, the method is applied to Figure 1 The server 104 in the example is used for explanation, and the steps include the following steps 201 to 206.

[0024] in:

[0025] Step 201: Use the analytic hierarchy process to construct an import risk assessment system for overseas infectious diseases.

[0026] Step 202: Calculate the weights of the secondary indicators and the tertiary indicators in the input risk assessment system based on the Delphi method.

[0027] Step 203: Collect the third-level indicator data of various overseas infectious diseases in the area to be studied for each sub-area in the area to be studied, and classify them into levels to obtain the third-level indicator scores of various overseas infectious diseases for each sub-area in the area to be studied.

[0028] Step 204: Calculate the first-level indicator scores of various overseas infectious diseases for each sub-region in the area to be studied based on the weights of the second-level indicators, the weights of the third-level indicators and the third-level indicator scores of various overseas infectious diseases for each sub-region in the area to be studied, and determine the levels corresponding to the first-level indicator scores.

[0029] Step 205: Based on the level corresponding to each primary indicator score, the risk matrix method is used to obtain the risk level of each sub-region in the area to be studied for the introduction of various overseas infectious diseases.

[0030] Step 206: When an overseas infectious disease breaks out, determine among the various collected overseas infectious diseases an overseas infectious disease whose virus similarity with the overseas infectious disease that broke out is greater than or equal to a preset threshold, and use the determined risk level of the overseas infectious disease input into each sub-region in the area to be studied as the risk level of the overseas infectious disease that broke out into each sub-region in the area to be studied.

[0031] By implementing the above steps 201 to 206, the risk assessment system and related indicators are constructed using the analytic hierarchy process, and the corresponding scores of specific overseas epidemics or public health emergencies are calculated based on the Delphi method. The risk of importing the outbreak is automatically analyzed and assessed in combination with the risk matrix, thus realizing the automated assessment of the risk of importing and spreading overseas infectious diseases. Among them, the outbreak of overseas infectious diseases can be a newly-emerged overseas infectious disease or an existing overseas infectious disease that has suddenly emerged.

[0032] In another exemplary embodiment of the present application, through literature research, the present application constructs a comprehensive input risk assessment model, such as Figure 3 As shown, the comprehensive import risk assessment system in step 201 is specifically composed of: the import risk assessment system includes 2 first-level indicators, 8 second-level indicators and 63 third-level indicators; among which, the 2 first-level indicators are the possibility of import transmission and the degree of disease harm. The 8 second-level indicators are local epidemic detection capability, local import possibility, local transmission suitability, local epidemic prevention and control capability, pathogen characteristics, disease characteristics, socioeconomic impact and international attention.

[0033] Furthermore, the specific method of using the Delphi method mentioned in step 202 above to calculate the weights of the secondary indicators and the tertiary indicators in the input risk assessment system is as follows: Invite 20 experts to assign weights to the 8 secondary indicators and 63 tertiary indicators of the above input risk assessment system. The weight of each indicator is determined by normalizing the median of the weight values ​​assigned by the 20 experts at each level. In this example, the total weight of the secondary indicators under each primary indicator is 1000, and the total weight of the tertiary indicators under each secondary indicator is also 1000. The results are shown in Tables 1 to 9, and the coefficients in Tables 1 to 9 are the weights.

[0034] Table 1 Secondary index weights

[0035]

[0036]

[0037] Table 2 Weights of the three-level indicators under the local epidemic detection capability

[0038]

[0039] Table 3 Weights of the three-level indicators under the local input possibility

[0040]

[0041] Table 4 Weights of the three-level indicators under local transmission suitability

[0042]

[0043]

[0044] Table 5 Weights of the three-level indicators under the local epidemic prevention and control capabilities

[0045]

[0046] Table 6 Weights of the three-level indicators under pathogen characteristics

[0047]

[0048] Table 7 Weights of the three-level indicators under disease characteristics

[0049]

[0050] Table 8 Weights of the three-level indicators under the socio-economic impact

[0051]

[0052]

[0053] Table 9 Weights of the three-level indicators under international attention

[0054]

[0055] The three-level indicator data are graded in step 203. Due to different three-level indicators, there are two standards for grade division: one is 81-100% (1); 61-80% (2); 41-60% (3); 21-40% (4); 0-20% (5), which means that the data is sorted from high to low into 5 grades, corresponding to 1 to 5 points respectively, and the higher the value, the lower the score. The other is 0-20% (1); 21-40% (2); 41-60% (3); 61-80% (4); 81-100% (5), which is the opposite, that is, the higher the value, the higher the score.

[0056] In order to assess the risk of importing a specific overseas epidemic, on the basis of the above-mentioned import risk assessment system, the scores of the two first-level indicators, the possibility of import transmission and the degree of disease hazard, are calculated according to the following formula, and the first-level indicator results are judged according to the corresponding range of the scores.

[0057]

[0058] In the formula, X k represents the score of the kth first-level indicator, C i represents the score of the i-th secondary indicator under the k-th primary indicator, a i represents the weight of the i-th secondary indicator, F j represents the score of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator, b j It represents the weight of the jth tertiary indicator under the i-th secondary indicator, m represents the number of secondary indicators under the k-th primary indicator, and n represents the number of tertiary indicators under the i-th secondary indicator.

[0059] In this example, C i The value range is 0-1, a i The value range is 0-1000, F j The value range is 1-5, b j The value range is 0-1000.

[0060] Final X k Results 1-200 are judged as extremely difficult / very small, 201-400 are judged as difficult / mild, 401-600 are judged as medium / moderate, 601-800 are judged as easy / severe, and 801-1000 are judged as extremely easy / extremely severe. Based on the calculated results of the two first-level indicators, the risk matrix method is used to judge the final input risk. The first risk matrix is ​​shown in Table 10:

[0061] Table 10 First risk matrix

[0062]

[0063] Therefore, the above step 205 can be replaced by the following steps 301 to 302:

[0064] Step 301: Construct a first risk matrix according to the score levels of input transmission possibility classification and the score levels of disease hazard degree classification; the score levels of input transmission possibility classification include: extremely difficult, difficult, medium, easy and extremely easy; the score levels of disease hazard degree classification include: minimal, mild, moderate, severe and extremely severe.

[0065] Step 302: According to the level corresponding to each primary indicator score, by searching the first risk matrix, the risk level of each sub-region in the area to be studied for the introduction of various overseas infectious diseases is obtained.

[0066] In another exemplary embodiment of the present application, although the comprehensive input risk assessment model constructed above realizes the automated assessment of the risk of importing a specific epidemic, the number of indicators required is large, which places high demands on storage and computing power, and it is difficult to embed in a web page to realize instant risk assessment. Therefore, based on the comprehensive input risk assessment model, a simplified model is constructed according to the following steps. The simplified input risk assessment system constructed in the above step 201 is specifically as follows: The input risk assessment system includes 2 first-level indicators, 4 second-level indicators and 21 third-level indicators; among them, the 2 first-level indicators are the epidemic situation in the source area, and the closeness between the source area and the local area. The 4 second-level indicators are the source area's epidemic detection capabilities, disease characteristics, overseas import possibility assessment, and socioeconomic impact assessment.

[0067] The method for obtaining the weights of the secondary indicators, the weights of the tertiary indicators and the tertiary indicator scores of various overseas infectious diseases for each sub-region in the area to be studied is the same as the previous example and will not be repeated here.

[0068] The specific implementation of step 204 is as follows:

[0069] 1. Prevalence in the source area

[0070] The source area incidence rate is corrected using the indicators contained in the source area epidemic situation in the input risk assessment system of this example. The details are as follows:

[0071] The epidemic situation in the source area is calculated according to the following formula based on the number of cases (N), the population of the source area (T) and the reliability of the epidemic data in the source area (S), and is divided into three levels: high, medium and low.

[0072]

[0073] Among them, S is calculated and normalized based on nine indicators, including the effective health coverage rate of the whole people in the source area, the public health budget of the source area, the health human resources in the source area, the gross domestic product of a country in the source area, the average education level in the source area, pathogen diagnosis technology, common symptoms, the length of the disease incubation period, and the infectiousness of the disease during the incubation period, according to the expert scoring coefficient, and the value ranges from 1 to 100.

[0074] The method to calculate S is as follows:

[0075]

[0076] S=(S1-S1 min ) / (S1 max -S1 min )×(100-1)+1

[0077] Among them, S1 represents the reliability of the epidemic data in the source area before normalization, a i′ represents the weight of the i'th secondary indicator, F j′ represents the score of the j'th third-level indicator under the i'th second-level indicator, b j′ Indicates the weight of the j'th third-level indicator under the i'th second-level indicator, S1 min Indicates the minimum value of the reliability of the source area epidemic data before normalization, S1 max Indicates the maximum value of the reliability of the epidemic data in the source area before normalization.

[0078] X1 considers that the incidence rate in the population is low if it is less than or equal to 1 / 100,000, medium if it is greater than 1 / 100,000 but less than or equal to 1 / 100, and high if it is greater than 1 / 100.

[0079] 2. The closeness between the source area and the local area

[0080] The closeness between the source area and the local area is calculated according to the following formula based on the historical aviation situation (F0), the expected aviation situation (F), the closeness between the source area and a certain country (A), and the closeness between the local area and foreign countries (B), and is divided into three levels: high, medium, and low.

[0081]

[0082] A is calculated based on the expert scoring coefficient using five indicators, namely, the number of historical inbound people in the source area, the population migration index of the source area, the amount of foreign direct investment in the source area, the number of people sent to the source area for contracted projects, and the number of people sent to the source area for labor cooperation; B is calculated based on the expert scoring coefficient using five indicators, namely, the amount of local goods imports and exports, the number of local foreign merchants, the total amount of local foreign investment, the local international tourism income, and the number of local overnight tourists; F0 is calculated based on the expert scoring coefficient using two indicators, namely, the frequency of flights from the source area to the local area and the average daily passenger flow of flights from the source area to the local area; F is consistent with F0 by default and can also be adjusted according to user conditions; σ represents the correction coefficient of the relationship between the comprehensive correlation and the aviation situation.

[0083] The specific method for calculating A, B, F0, and σ is as follows:

[0084]

[0085]

[0086] Among them, F j1 represents the score of the j1th third-level indicator among the five third-level indicators affecting A, b j1 Indicates the weight of the j1th third-level indicator among the five third-level indicators that affect A, a i1 Indicates the weight of the secondary indicators of the five third-level indicators that affect A or B; F j2 Indicates the score of the j2th third-level indicator among the five third-level indicators that affect B, b j2 Indicates the weight of the j2th third-level indicator among the five third-level indicators that affect B; F j3 Indicates the score of the j3rd level indicator among the two level indicators that affect F0, b j3 Indicates the weight of the j3rd level indicator among the two level indicators that affect F0, a i2 Indicates the weight of the second-level indicators to which the two third-level indicators affect F0.

[0087] The secondary and tertiary index coefficients used in the closeness between the source region and a certain country (A) correspond to the secondary and tertiary index coefficients of the possibility assessment of overseas imports in the system. The secondary and tertiary index coefficients used in the closeness between the local area and overseas (B) correspond to the secondary and tertiary index coefficients of the socio-economic impact assessment in the system.

[0088] The calculated X2 values ​​are sorted from low to high, and the 33% and 66% cutoff values ​​are calculated. A cutoff value less than or equal to 33% is low, a cutoff value greater than 33% but less than 66% is medium, and a cutoff value greater than 66% is high.

[0089] According to the calculated results of the two primary indicators, the final input risk is judged using the risk matrix method. The second risk matrix is ​​shown in Table 11.

[0090] Table 11 Second risk matrix

[0091]

[0092] Therefore, the above step 205 can be replaced by the following steps 401 to 402:

[0093] Step 401: Construct a second risk matrix based on the score levels divided by the epidemic situation in the source area and the score levels divided by the closeness between the source area and the local area; the score levels divided by the epidemic situation in the source area include: low, medium and high; the score levels divided by the closeness between the source area and the local area include: low, medium and high.

[0094] Step 402: According to the level corresponding to each primary indicator score, by searching the second risk matrix, the risk level of each sub-region in the area to be studied for the introduction of various overseas infectious diseases is obtained.

[0095] In the above step 206, when an overseas infectious disease outbreak occurs, there is no need to calculate again. The risk level of the overseas infectious disease of the same infectious disease type as the overseas infectious disease outbreak is directly input as the risk level of the overseas infectious disease outbreak into each sub-area in the area to be studied, thereby simplifying the calculation process.

[0096] In another exemplary embodiment of the present application, the aforementioned area to be studied can be a country, and the source area is the source country. Taking the area to be studied as a certain country as an example, each sub-area in the area to be studied refers to the provinces and municipalities of the certain country, and the source country is a country other than the certain country. Then the simplified version of the input risk assessment system constructed in the above step 201 is as follows Figure 4 As shown, the specific implementation method of obtaining the third-level indicator score in the above step 203 is as follows:

[0097] The above 63 evaluation indicators, including original data related to 209 countries, 150 diseases, and 31 provinces and cities, were downloaded and sorted from the Global Health Data Exchange Platform, a country's statistical yearbook, the Ministry of Transport, a country's Center for Disease Control and Prevention, GIDEON, ICAO, customs, and literature. The original data of each indicator was graded and scored, with a score range of 1-5. The specific scoring standards are shown in Table 12 below.

[0098] In the grading standard, 81-100% (1); 61-80% (2); 41-60% (3); 21-40% (4); 0-20% (5) means that the data is sorted from high to low into 5 levels, corresponding to 1 to 5 points respectively. The higher the value, the lower the score, while 0-20% (1); 21-40% (2); 41-60% (3); 61-80% (4); 81-100% (5) is the opposite, that is, the higher the value, the higher the score.

[0099] Table 12 Scoring criteria

[0100]

[0101]

[0102]

[0103]

[0104]

[0105]

[0106]

[0107]

[0108] This application is based on data on disease surveillance, health systems, disease characteristics, etc. released by the Global Health Data Exchange Platform, a country's statistical yearbook, the Ministry of Transport, and a country's Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and uses this to establish a rapid assessment method for the risk of infectious disease imports, to achieve threat assessment of emerging and sudden infectious disease outbreaks, and to make up for the shortcomings of existing risk assessment tools in terms of timeliness and automation.

[0109] (1) The construction of a comprehensive input risk assessment model collects multiple indicators related to the spread of infectious diseases, which can quickly assess the risk of infectious diseases caused by various diseases spreading from the source country to a certain country. The conventional expert consultation method is time-consuming and labor-intensive to assess a specific epidemic event, a certain disease, or a certain type of disease.

[0110] (2) Underdeveloped countries usually have weak disease monitoring capabilities, and the number of reported cases is difficult to reflect the actual number of cases. The construction of the simplified indicator input risk assessment model calculates the S value of a disease in the source country by considering nine indicators such as the effective health coverage rate of the whole people in the source country and the public health budget of the source country, and normalizes it from 1 to 100 to achieve the correction of the incidence rate of foreign epidemics.

[0111] (3) Currently, most infectious disease risk assessments only consider air input, while land and sea inputs are usually ignored. The construction of the simplified indicator import risk assessment model corrects the situation of infectious disease import by considering the ratio of the closeness between the source country and a certain country, the closeness between the local and foreign countries, and the aviation situation.

[0112] (4) Construction of simplified index input risk assessment model By embedding the secondary index coefficients, tertiary index coefficients, scores, model calculation formulas and corresponding thresholds of the above-mentioned system-related indicators into the computer system, and by setting the disease name and number of cases, the risk situation of 31 provinces and cities in a country can be obtained within 5 seconds. This gets rid of the cumbersome process of expert consultation and realizes the (computer) automated assessment of the risk of infectious disease importation.

[0113] (5) Compared with the literature that only considers two factors, namely, morbidity and aviation conditions, the risk index calculation methods of "Construction of a comprehensive input risk assessment model" and "Construction of an indicator-simplified input risk assessment model" are more comprehensive, and the recall rate is significantly improved:

[0114] This application uses five overseas epidemics, including yellow fever in Angola in spring 2016, monkeypox in Spain in autumn 2022, Zika virus disease in Venezuela in spring 2016, Zika virus disease in Venezuela in summer 2016, and Zika virus disease in Suriname in summer 2017, to validate and evaluate this method and literature methods. The validation and evaluation results of this method and literature methods are compared in Table 13.

[0115] Source: Ji Yang. Establishment of a geographic information system for risk assessment of imported infectious diseases in a certain country [D]. Anhui Medical University, 2019.

[0116] Method: Considering the number of new cases per month, the population of the country of origin, and the passenger flow from the country of origin to each province of a certain country (here the number of airline seats is used as a substitute), the risk index corresponding to each entry province each month is calculated. The formula is:

[0117]

[0118] IT a represents the risk index of diseases imported via international flights in each province of a country in month a (the value range of a is 1-12); n represents the total number of countries (or regions) in the epidemic source area in month a; T i represents the monthly passenger flow from all airports in epidemic source country (or region) i to a certain country in month a; C i represents the number of newly reported cases in epidemic source country (or region) i in month a; P i It represents the total population in the epidemic area of ​​epidemic source country i in month a.

[0119] It is assumed that a risk index greater than or equal to 0.01 is positive (risky) and less than 0.01 is negative (no risk).

[0120] In the construction of the comprehensive input risk assessment model and the indicator-simplified input risk assessment model, risk assessment results of high or above are considered positive, while those of average or below are considered negative.

[0121] Table 13 Comparison of validation evaluation results of this method and literature methods

[0122]

[0123] From the above, it can be concluded that the method of the present application can further obtain the risk level of each sub-region in each month for the import of various overseas infectious diseases into the area to be studied.

[0124] This application collects and organizes information from literature surveys and public databases, summarizes the relevant characteristics of currently discovered pathogens and diseases, and the epidemic characteristics of historical epidemics, and presets a variety of new pathogens and unknown disease characterization indicators. Combined with socioeconomic data from public databases, this application characterizes the disease detection and prevention and control capabilities of various regions, as well as the distribution and mobility characteristics of the population, breaking the limitations of professional knowledge background, subject background and dynamic data on automated evaluation, and establishing a real-time automated assessment model for the import and transmission risks of newly emerging and sudden infectious diseases from abroad based on Delphi, hierarchical analysis, risk matrix and other methods, providing technical support for the accurate monitoring and early warning of imported infectious diseases.

[0125] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided. The computer device may be a server or a terminal. The internal structure diagram thereof may be as follows: Figure 5 As shown. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, an input / output interface (Input / Output, referred to as I / O) and a communication interface. Among them, the processor, the memory and the input / output interface are connected through a system bus, and the communication interface is connected to the system bus through the input / output interface. Among them, the processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The database of the computer device is used to store various overseas infectious diseases in the area to be studied. The input / output interface of the computer device is used to exchange information between the processor and an external device. The communication interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal through a network connection. When the computer program is executed by the processor, an automated assessment method for the risk of imported overseas infectious diseases is implemented.

[0126] Those skilled in the art will understand that Figure 5The structure shown in the figure is only a block diagram of a part of the structure related to the solution of the present application, and does not constitute a limitation on the computer device to which the solution of the present application is applied. The specific computer device may include more or fewer components than those shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components. In an exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided, including a memory and a processor, wherein a computer program is stored in the memory, and the processor implements the steps in the above-mentioned method embodiments when executing the computer program.

[0127] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, storing a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps in the above method embodiments are implemented.

[0128] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer program product is provided, including a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps in the above method embodiments are implemented.

[0129] It should be noted that the user information (including but not limited to user device information, user personal information, etc.) and data (including but not limited to data used for analysis, stored data, displayed data, etc.) involved in this application are all information and data authorized by the user or fully authorized by all parties.

[0130] Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a computer program, and the computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the above-mentioned methods. Among them, any reference to the memory, database or other medium used in the embodiments provided in the present application can include at least one of non-volatile and volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash memory, optical memory, high-density embedded non-volatile memory, resistive random access memory (ReRAM), magnetic random access memory (MRAM), ferroelectric random access memory (FRAM), phase change memory (PCM), graphene memory, etc. Volatile memory can include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory, etc. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM may be in various forms, such as static random access memory (SRAM) or dynamic random access memory (DRAM).

[0131] The database involved in each embodiment provided in this application may include at least one of a relational database and a non-relational database. The non-relational database may include a distributed database based on blockchain, etc., but is not limited thereto. The processor involved in each embodiment provided in this application may be a general-purpose processor, a central processing unit, a graphics processor, a digital signal processor, a programmable logic device, a data processing logic device based on quantum computing, etc., but is not limited thereto.

[0132] The technical features of the above embodiments may be combined arbitrarily. To make the description concise, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this specification.

[0133] This article uses specific examples to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of this application. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the method and core ideas of this application. At the same time, for those skilled in the art, according to the ideas of this application, there will be changes in the specific implementation methods and application scope. In summary, the content of this specification should not be understood as limiting this application.

Claims

1. A method for automatically assessing the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad, characterized in that: include: Use the analytic hierarchy process to build a risk assessment system for imported infectious diseases from abroad; Calculate the weights of the secondary indicators and the tertiary indicators in the input risk assessment system based on the Delphi method; Collect the third-level indicator data of various overseas infectious diseases in the area to be studied for each sub-area in the area to be studied, and classify them into levels to obtain the third-level indicator scores of various overseas infectious diseases for each sub-area in the area to be studied; According to the weights of the secondary indicators, the weights of the tertiary indicators and the tertiary indicator scores of various overseas infectious diseases for each sub-region in the region to be studied, the primary indicator scores of various overseas infectious diseases imported into each sub-region in the region to be studied are calculated, and the grades corresponding to the primary indicator scores are determined; According to the corresponding level of each primary indicator score, the risk matrix method is used to obtain the risk level of each sub-region of the importation of various overseas infectious diseases into the study area; When an overseas infectious disease breaks out, the overseas infectious diseases whose virus similarity with the overseas infectious disease that broke out is greater than or equal to a preset threshold are determined among the various overseas infectious diseases collected, and the risk level of the determined overseas infectious diseases entering each sub-region in the area to be studied is used as the risk level of the overseas infectious diseases that broke out in each sub-region in the area to be studied.

2. The method for automated assessment of risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad according to claim 1, characterized in that: The input risk assessment system includes 2 first-level indicators, 8 second-level indicators and 63 third-level indicators; Among them, the two first-level indicators are the possibility of imported transmission and the degree of disease harm.

3. The method for automated assessment of the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad according to claim 2, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the first-level indicator score is: Where, X k represents the score of the kth first-level indicator, C i represents the score of the i-th secondary indicator under the k-th primary indicator, a i represents the weight of the i-th secondary indicator, F j represents the score of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator, b j It represents the weight of the jth tertiary indicator under the i-th secondary indicator, m represents the number of secondary indicators under the k-th primary indicator, and n represents the number of tertiary indicators under the i-th secondary indicator.

4. The method for automated assessment of the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad according to claim 2, characterized in that: According to the corresponding level of each primary indicator score, the risk matrix method is used to obtain the risk level of each sub-region in the study area for the import of various overseas infectious diseases, including: A first risk matrix is ​​constructed according to the score levels of input transmission possibility and the score levels of disease hazard degree; the score levels of input transmission possibility include: extremely difficult, difficult, medium, easy and extremely easy; the score levels of disease hazard degree include: minimal, mild, moderate, severe and extremely severe; According to the level corresponding to each first-level indicator score, by searching the first risk matrix, the risk level of each sub-region in the area to be studied for the introduction of various overseas infectious diseases is obtained.

5. The method for automated assessment of risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad according to claim 1, characterized in that: The input risk assessment system includes 2 first-level indicators, 4 second-level indicators and 21 third-level indicators; Among them, the two first-level indicators are the epidemic situation in the source area and the closeness between the source area and the local area.

6. The method for automated assessment of risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad according to claim 5, characterized in that: The calculation formula for the source area prevalence score is: S=(S1-S1 min ) / (S1 max -S1 min )×(100-1)+1; In the formula, X1 represents the epidemic situation score of the source area, N represents the number of cases, T represents the population of the source area, S represents the reliability of the epidemic data of the source area after normalization; S1 represents the reliability of the epidemic data of the source area before normalization, and a i′ represents the weight of the i'th secondary indicator, F j′ represents the score of the j'th third-level indicator under the i'th second-level indicator, b j′ Indicates the weight of the j'th third-level indicator under the i'th second-level indicator, S1 min S1 represents the minimum value of the reliability of the source area epidemic data before normalization. max It represents the maximum value of the reliability of the epidemic data in the source area before normalization; The calculation formula of the closeness score between the source area and the local area is: Where X2 represents the closeness score between the source area and the local area, F represents the expected aviation situation, F0 represents the historical aviation situation, A represents the closeness between the source area and the area to be studied, B represents the closeness between the local area and foreign countries, and σ represents the correction coefficient of the relationship between the comprehensive association and the aviation situation; F j1 represents the score of the j1th third-level indicator among the five third-level indicators affecting A, b j1 Indicates the weight of the j1th third-level indicator among the five third-level indicators that affect A, a i1 Indicates the weight of the secondary indicators of the five third-level indicators that affect A or B; F j2 Indicates the score of the j2th third-level indicator among the five third-level indicators that affect B, b j2 Indicates the weight of the j2th third-level indicator among the five third-level indicators that affect B; F j3 Indicates the score of the j3rd level indicator among the two level indicators that affect F0, b j3 Indicates the weight of the j3rd level indicator among the two level indicators that affect F0, a i2 Indicates the weight of the second-level indicators to which the two third-level indicators affect F0.

7. The method for automated assessment of risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad according to claim 5, characterized in that: According to the corresponding level of each primary indicator score, the risk matrix method is used to obtain the risk level of each sub-region in the study area for the import of various overseas infectious diseases, including: A second risk matrix is ​​constructed according to the score levels divided by the epidemic situation in the source area and the score levels divided by the closeness between the source area and the local area; the score levels divided by the epidemic situation in the source area include: low, medium and high; the score levels divided by the closeness between the source area and the local area include: low, medium and high; According to the level corresponding to each primary indicator score, by searching the second risk matrix, the risk level of each sub-region in the area to be studied for the introduction of various overseas infectious diseases is obtained.

8. A computer device comprising: A memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the method for automatically assessing the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the method for automatically assessing the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer program product, comprising a computer program, characterized in that When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the method for automatically assessing the risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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