Coal power decommissioning cooperative benefit large-scale simulation method and device based on coal power unit heterogeneity characteristics

Abstract

The invention relates to a coal power decommissioning cooperative benefit large-scale simulation method and device based on coal power unit heterogeneity characteristics, and the method comprises the steps: determining a plurality of heterogeneity characteristics affecting the decommissioning sequence of each coal power unit based on the carbon dioxide and atmospheric pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal power unit, a single evaluation dimension is represented by a single heterogeneity feature; based on each heterogeneity feature, simulating a coal power unit succession process, and determining a coal power unit succession path corresponding to each heterogeneity feature; the standardized net income corresponding to the succession path of each coal power unit is determined, the standardized net income is provided for a decision maker to select the optimal succession path, and the standardized net income represents the comprehensive benefit of each evaluation dimension. As the standardized net income is obtained by integrating a plurality of evaluation dimensions, the standardized net income is a collaborative income reflecting the plurality of evaluation dimensions in the form of economic heterogeneity characteristics. Therefore, the decision maker can determine the feasible and fine succession path with the optimal cooperative benefit.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to the field of data processing, and in particular to a large-scale simulation method and device for the synergistic benefits of coal-fired power decommissioning based on the heterogeneous characteristics of coal-fired power units. Background Art

[0002] A series of policy "combinations" such as the elimination of obsolete production capacity, ultra-low emission standards, and energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation have been effective, significantly reducing the emission levels of major air pollutants in the coal-fired power industry. However, current coal-fired power carbon dioxide emissions still account for about one-third of the country's anthropogenic emissions. Under the dual pressures of the continuous improvement of terminal electrification levels and the shrinking potential for emission reduction at the end of pipelines, steadily and orderly promoting the transformation of coal-fired power is the only way to achieve the coordinated goals of carbon neutrality and clean air.

[0003] The succession path of coal-fired power units in the coal-fired power transformation refers to the specific arrangement of putting coal-fired power units into operation to meet the low-carbon and clean demand through the process of new construction and elimination. Formulating the succession path of coal-fired power units is a complex process. If different policy formulation goals are used, even for coal-fired power units in the same region, the succession paths formulated may be different. How to obtain a feasible, precise, and synergistically optimal succession path is a difficult point. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of this, the present disclosure proposes a solution for determining the succession path of coal-fired power units.

[0005] According to one aspect of the present disclosure, a method for determining the succession path of coal-fired power units is provided. The method includes: based on the carbon dioxide and atmospheric pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, multiple heterogeneous characteristics that affect the retirement priority of each coal-fired power unit are determined, and a single heterogeneous characteristic is used to characterize a single evaluation dimension; based on each of the heterogeneous characteristics, the succession process of the coal-fired power unit is simulated, and the succession path of the coal-fired power unit corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics is determined; the standardized net benefit corresponding to the succession path of each of the coal-fired power units is determined, and the standardized net benefit is provided for decision makers to select the optimal succession path, and the standardized net benefit represents the comprehensive benefits brought about by achieving the decision-making goal.

[0006] In a possible implementation, based on each of the heterogeneous characteristics, the succession process of the coal-fired power units is simulated to determine the succession path of the coal-fired power units corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics, including: determining the retirement order of the coal-fired power units corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics according to each of the heterogeneous characteristics; obtaining the climate target constraints of the region where each coal-fired power unit is located, and the climate target constraints include: the expected annual coal-fired power generation in the region where each coal-fired power unit is located and the annual implementation plan of the coal-fired power unit retirement policy; based on the atmospheric pollutant emission data, basic information, climate target constraints, and each of the retirement orders, determining the succession path of the coal-fired power units corresponding to each retirement order, and the succession path of the coal-fired power units includes the retirement time point of the old coal-fired power units and the construction time point of the new coal-fired power units.

[0007] In one possible implementation, obtaining the climate target constraints of the region where each coal-fired power unit is located includes: obtaining the carbon emission target of the region; and determining the expected annual coal power generation of the region in each of the future years while meeting the carbon emission target.

[0008] In a possible implementation, the determination of the standardized net benefits corresponding to the succession paths of the coal-fired power units includes: determining the coal-fired power units put into operation each year according to the succession paths of the coal-fired power units; determining the annual carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks based on the coal-fired power units put into operation each year; and determining the annual standardized net benefits under the succession paths of the coal-fired power units based on the carbon emission reduction benefits, the health benefits, and the asset stranding risks.

[0009] In a possible implementation, the annual standardized net income of each coal-fired power unit under the succession path is determined according to the carbon emission reduction benefits, the health benefits, and the asset stranding risks, including:

[0010] Obtain multiple preference weight combinations, wherein the preference weight combinations represent the weights of carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks, respectively; determine the annual standardized net income for each year according to the following formula:

[0011]

[0012] Among them, α represents the importance attached to carbon emission reduction benefits, β represents the importance attached to health benefits, and γ represents the importance attached to asset stranding risks. i is a positive integer, α+β+γ=3, Normalized net benefit i represents the standardized net income in year i, represents the standardized carbon emission reduction benefit in year i, represents the standardized health benefit in year i, represents the standardized asset stranding risk in year i.

[0013] In a possible implementation, the determination of annual carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks based on the annual coal-fired power units put into operation includes:

[0014] According to the succession paths of various coal-fired power units, the decommissioning and new construction of coal-fired power units were simulated to determine the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in each year under each succession path of coal-fired power units and the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in each region in each year;

[0015] Obtain the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in each year under the baseline retirement path, and the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in each region in each year;

[0016] Obtaining the total investment cost and basic data of all coal-fired power units, wherein the basic data includes: the installed capacity of each coal-fired power unit, the life of each coal-fired power unit, and the commissioning time of each coal-fired power unit;

[0017] The carbon reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks are determined based on the following formula:

[0018] Benefit decarbonization,i,y =(E Historical,y -E i,y )×CP

[0019] Among them, Benefit decarbonization,i,y represents the carbon emission reduction benefit of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; E Historical,y represents the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in year y under the baseline path, E i,y represents the total carbon emissions generated by the coal-fired power unit in year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit, and CP represents the national carbon market price;

[0020]

[0021] Among them, Benefit health,i,y represents the health benefits of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; Historical,y,p represents the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in region p in the yth year under the baseline path, Death i,y,p VSL represents the total number of deaths caused by air pollutant emissions from coal-fired power units in region p in year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit. p represents the statistical life value in region p;

[0022]

[0023] Among them, Cost assets stranding,i,yrepresents the asset stranding risk of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; OCC represents the unit installed capacity investment cost of the coal-fired power unit, C i,y,r represents the installed capacity of coal-fired power unit r in the yth year under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit, LT represents the operating life of the coal-fired power unit, Age i,y,r It represents the operation time of coal-fired power unit r as of year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit.

[0024] In a possible implementation, the heterogeneous characteristics include: carbon emissions per unit capacity of each coal-fired power unit, the number of premature deaths caused by the unit capacity of each coal-fired power unit, and the asset stranding risk of each coal-fired power unit. The atmospheric pollutant emission data include: coal consumption per kilowatt-hour, emission factor, pollution control level, and major atmospheric pollutant emissions of each coal-fired power unit. The basic information includes: installed capacity, remaining assets, and commissioning time of each coal-fired power unit. Based on the carbon dioxide and atmospheric pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, multiple heterogeneous characteristics that affect the retirement priority of each coal-fired power unit are determined, including:

[0025] Obtain the number of premature deaths caused by air pollutant emissions nationwide, and the contribution rate of single air pollutant emissions to the number of premature deaths in each grid covered by the emissions of each coal-fired power unit;

[0026] Obtain the emission proportion of various air pollutants of each coal-fired power unit;

[0027] Obtain the carbon emissions per unit of production capacity of each coal-fired power unit;

[0028] The number of premature deaths and the risk of stranded assets are determined according to the following formula:

[0029]

[0030] Among them, M r represents the number of premature deaths caused by the unit capacity of the rth coal-fired power unit, M represents the number of premature deaths nationwide, and P j,k represents the contribution rate of the kth air pollutant in the jth grid to the number of premature deaths, β r,k represents the emission proportion of the kth type of air pollutant of the rth coal-fired power unit;

[0031]

[0032] Among them, Cost assets stranding,r represents the asset stranding risk of coal-fired power unit r, OCC r represents the unit installed capacity investment cost of coal-fired power unit r, C r represents the installed capacity of coal-fired power unit r, LT represents the operating life of the coal-fired power unit, Ager Indicates the time when coal-fired power unit r has been put into operation.

[0033] According to one aspect of the present disclosure, a device for determining a succession path of a coal-fired power unit is provided, the device comprising:

[0034] A heterogeneity feature determination module is used to determine multiple heterogeneity features that affect the retirement priority of each coal-fired power unit based on the carbon dioxide and air pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, and to represent a single evaluation dimension with a single heterogeneity feature;

[0035] A coal-fired power unit succession path determination module, used to simulate the coal-fired power unit succession process based on each of the heterogeneous characteristics, and determine the coal-fired power unit succession path corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics;

[0036] The standardized net benefit determination module is used to determine the standardized net benefits corresponding to the succession paths of the coal-fired power units. The standardized net benefits are provided for decision makers to select the optimal succession path. The standardized net benefits represent the comprehensive benefits brought about by achieving the decision-making goals.

[0037] In a possible implementation, the coal-fired power generation unit succession path determination module includes:

[0038] A coal-fired power unit retirement order determination module, used to determine the retirement order of the coal-fired power units corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics according to each of the heterogeneous characteristics;

[0039] A climate target constraint acquisition module is used to obtain the climate target constraints of the region where each coal-fired power unit is located, and the climate target constraints include: the expected annual coal power generation in the region where each coal-fired power unit is located and the annual implementation plan of the coal-fired power unit retirement policy;

[0040] The power unit succession path determination submodule is used to determine the coal-fired power unit succession path corresponding to each retirement sequence based on the atmospheric pollutant emission data, basic information, climate target constraints, and each retirement sequence, and the coal-fired power unit succession path includes the retirement time point of the old coal-fired power unit and the construction time point of the new coal-fired power unit.

[0041] In a possible implementation, the climate target constraint acquisition module is further used to:

[0042] Obtaining carbon emission targets for the region;

[0043] Determine the expected annual coal electricity generation for the region in each of the future years while meeting the carbon emission targets.

[0044] In a possible implementation, the standardized net income determination module is further used to:

[0045] According to the succession path of each coal-fired power unit, determine the coal-fired power units to be put into operation each year;

[0046] Based on the coal-fired power units put into operation each year, determine the annual carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks;

[0047] Based on the carbon emission reduction benefits, the health benefits, and the asset stranding risks, the annual standardized net income for each coal-fired power unit succession path is determined.

[0048] In a possible implementation, the annual standardized net income of each coal-fired power unit under the succession path is determined according to the carbon emission reduction benefits, the health benefits, and the asset stranding risks, including:

[0049] Acquire a plurality of preference weight combinations, wherein the preference weight combinations represent respective weights for carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks;

[0050] The annual standardized net income for each year is determined according to the following formula:

[0051]

[0052] Among them, α represents the importance attached to carbon emission reduction benefits, β represents the importance attached to health benefits, and γ represents the importance attached to asset stranding risks. i is a positive integer, α+β+γ=3, Normalized net benefit i represents the standardized net income in year i, represents the standardized carbon emission reduction benefit in year i, represents the standardized health benefit in year i, represents the standardized asset stranding risk in year i.

[0053] In a possible implementation, the determination of annual carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks based on the annual coal-fired power units put into operation includes:

[0054] According to the succession paths of various coal-fired power units, the decommissioning and new construction of coal-fired power units were simulated to determine the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in each year under each succession path of coal-fired power units and the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in each region in each year;

[0055] Obtain the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in each year under the baseline retirement path, and the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in each region in each year;

[0056] Obtaining the total investment cost and basic data of all coal-fired power units, wherein the basic data includes: the installed capacity of each coal-fired power unit, the life of each coal-fired power unit, and the commissioning time of each coal-fired power unit;

[0057] The carbon reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks are determined based on the following formula:

[0058] Benefit decarbonization,i,y =(E Historical,y -E i,y )×CP

[0059] Among them, Benefit decarbonization,i,y represents the carbon emission reduction benefit of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; E Historical,y represents the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in year y under the baseline path, E i,y represents the total carbon emissions generated by the coal-fired power unit in year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit, and CP represents the national carbon market price;

[0060]

[0061] Among them, Benefit health,i,y represents the health benefits of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; Historical,y,p represents the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in region p in the yth year under the baseline path, Death i,y,p VSL represents the total number of deaths caused by air pollutant emissions from coal-fired power units in region p in year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit. p represents the statistical life value in region p;

[0062]

[0063] Among them, Cost assets stranding,i,y represents the asset stranding risk of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; OCC represents the unit installed capacity investment cost of the coal-fired power unit, C i,y,r represents the installed capacity of coal-fired power unit r in the yth year under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit, LT represents the operating life of the coal-fired power unit, Age i,y,r It represents the operation time of coal-fired power unit r as of year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit.

[0064] In a possible implementation, the heterogeneous characteristics include: carbon emissions per unit capacity of each coal-fired power unit, the number of premature deaths caused by the unit capacity of each coal-fired power unit, and the asset stranding risk of each coal-fired power unit. The air pollutant emission data include: coal consumption per kilowatt-hour, emission factor, pollution control level, and major air pollutant emissions of each coal-fired power unit. The basic information includes: installed capacity, remaining assets, and commissioning time of each coal-fired power unit. The heterogeneous characteristic determination module is further used to:

[0065] Obtain the number of premature deaths caused by air pollutant emissions nationwide, and the contribution rate of single air pollutant emissions to the number of premature deaths in each grid covered by the emissions of each coal-fired power unit;

[0066] Obtain the emission proportion of various air pollutants of each coal-fired power unit;

[0067] Obtain the carbon emissions per unit of production capacity of each coal-fired power unit;

[0068] The number of premature deaths and the risk of stranded assets are determined according to the following formula:

[0069]

[0070] Among them, M r represents the number of premature deaths caused by the unit capacity of the rth coal-fired power unit, M represents the number of premature deaths nationwide, and P j,k represents the contribution rate of the kth air pollutant in the jth grid to the number of premature deaths, β r,k represents the emission proportion of the kth type of air pollutant of the rth coal-fired power unit;

[0071]

[0072] Among them, Cost assets stranding,r represents the asset stranding risk of coal-fired power unit r, OCC r represents the unit installed capacity investment cost of coal-fired power unit r, C r represents the installed capacity of coal-fired power unit r, LT represents the operating life of the coal-fired power unit, Age r Indicates the time when coal-fired power unit r has been put into operation.

[0073] In the disclosed embodiment, based on the atmospheric pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, the heterogeneous characteristics of multiple evaluation dimensions can be obtained. According to each heterogeneous characteristic, the succession path of the coal-fired power unit is formulated respectively, and the new construction and decommissioning of the coal-fired power unit are simulated. Based on the comprehensive consideration of multiple evaluation dimensions, the comprehensive benefits obtained from the transformation of coal-fired power units under each succession path are evaluated for decision makers to select the optimal path. Since the standardized net benefit is obtained by integrating multiple evaluation dimensions, the standardized net benefit reflects the synergistic benefits of multiple evaluation dimensions in the form of economic heterogeneity characteristics. In this way, the decision makers are more likely to determine a feasible, detailed, and synergistically optimal succession path.

[0074] Further features and aspects of the present disclosure will become apparent from the following detailed description of exemplary embodiments with reference to the attached drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0075] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of the specification, illustrate exemplary embodiments, features, and aspects of the disclosure and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the disclosure.

[0076] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a method for determining a succession path of a coal-fired power unit provided in an embodiment of the present disclosure.

[0077] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the structure of a device for determining a succession path of a coal-fired power unit provided in an embodiment of the present disclosure. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0078] Various exemplary embodiments, features and aspects of the present disclosure will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The same reference numerals in the accompanying drawings represent elements with the same or similar functions. Although various aspects of the embodiments are shown in the accompanying drawings, the drawings are not necessarily drawn to scale unless otherwise specified.

[0079] The word “exemplary” is used exclusively herein to mean “serving as an example, example, or illustration.” Any embodiment described herein as “exemplary” is not necessarily to be construed as preferred or advantageous over other embodiments.

[0080] In addition, in order to better illustrate the present disclosure, numerous specific details are given in the following specific embodiments. It should be understood by those skilled in the art that the present disclosure can also be implemented without certain specific details. In some examples, methods, means, components and circuits well known to those skilled in the art are not described in detail in order to highlight the subject matter of the present disclosure.

[0081] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a method for determining a succession path of a coal-fired power unit provided in an embodiment of the present disclosure.

[0082] like Figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0083] S11. Based on the carbon dioxide and air pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, multiple heterogeneous characteristics that affect the retirement priority of each coal-fired power unit are determined, and a single heterogeneous characteristic is used to represent a single evaluation dimension.

[0084] The coal-fired power unit may be a coal-fired power unit that has been built and is to be retired. The atmospheric pollutant emission data may be data used to calculate the atmospheric pollutant emission of each coal-fired power unit. Exemplarily, the atmospheric pollutant emission data may include: the ash content and sulfur content of the coal-fired power unit fuel, the emission factor characterizing the amount of atmospheric pollutants produced per unit fuel, the atmospheric pollutant emission of the coal-fired power unit (for example: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide emission, etc.), and the pollution control efficiency of the coal-fired power unit, for example: the particulate matter emission reduction efficiency after the bag filter is installed on the coal-fired power unit.

[0085] The basic information of the coal-fired power unit may be data characterizing the installation status and operation status of the coal-fired power unit, etc. For example, the basic information may include: installed capacity, geographical location, commissioning time, coal consumption, annual power generation, etc.

[0086] Heterogeneous characteristics can be indicators that affect the retirement order of coal-fired power units and represent a single evaluation dimension. Among them, the evaluation dimensions can include: environmental dimension, public health dimension, economic benefit dimension, social benefit dimension, etc. Heterogeneous characteristics can include: carbon emissions (or other atmospheric pollutant emissions), premature deaths, asset stranding risk, carbon emission intensity index (or other atmospheric pollutant emission intensity index), health intensity index, asset stranding intensity index. Among them, carbon emissions represent the carbon emissions of a single coal-fired power unit; premature deaths represent the number of premature deaths caused by atmospheric pollutants emitted by a single coal-fired power unit; asset stranding risk represents the amount of investment that cannot be recovered due to early retirement of a single coal-fired power unit; carbon emission intensity index (or other atmospheric pollutant emission intensity index) can represent the carbon emissions (or other atmospheric pollutant emissions) per unit capacity of a single coal-fired power unit; health intensity index can represent the number of deaths caused by atmospheric pollutants emitted by a single coal-fired power unit per unit capacity; asset stranding intensity index can represent the investment that cannot be recovered per unit capacity due to early retirement of a single coal-fired power unit.

[0087] For example, the carbon emissions (or air pollutant emissions) of a single coal-fired power unit can be determined based on the air pollutant emission data of the unit; and then the carbon emissions intensity index (or air pollutant emission intensity index) of the coal-fired power unit can be determined based on the installed capacity and the carbon emissions (or air pollutant emissions) of the unit.

[0088] After determining the heterogeneity characteristics, each coal-fired power unit can correspond to the same type of heterogeneity characteristics. Each coal-fired power unit can correspond to multiple heterogeneity characteristics.

[0089] S12, based on each of the heterogeneous characteristics, simulating the succession process of the coal-fired power unit, and determining the succession path of the coal-fired power unit corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics.

[0090] The succession path of coal-fired power units can characterize the order in which coal-fired power units are retired. The succession path of coal-fired power units can characterize the retirement time point of coal-fired power units, for example: characterize the year in which coal-fired power units are retired. The embodiments of the present disclosure do not limit the accuracy of the time point. The succession path of coal-fired power units can characterize the establishment time point of new coal-fired power units.

[0091] In the embodiment of the present disclosure, a model for simulating the decommissioning of coal-fired power units and the construction of new coal-fired power units may be pre-set.

[0092] For example, the retirement order of coal-fired power units can be determined based on the same heterogeneous characteristics of each coal-fired power unit. The atmospheric pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, as well as the retirement order of the coal-fired power unit, are used as the first model input. The model can simulate the succession process of the coal-fired power units according to the retirement order of the coal-fired power units to obtain the succession path of the coal-fired power units. A single heterogeneous characteristic can correspond to a succession path of a coal-fired power unit.

[0093] The above is only an example, and the embodiments of the present disclosure do not limit the method for determining the succession path of coal-fired power units.

[0094] S13, determining the standardized net benefits corresponding to the succession paths of the coal-fired power units, wherein the standardized net benefits are provided for decision makers to select the optimal succession path, and the standardized net benefits represent the comprehensive benefits brought about by achieving the decision-making objectives.

[0095] The standardized net benefit in the embodiments of the present disclosure may be the sum of the benefits on the evaluation dimensions characterized by the heterogeneous characteristics. The standardized net benefit may represent the total benefit obtained after comprehensive consideration of each dimension. Exemplarily, the aforementioned model may determine the standardized net benefit generated by the succession of coal-fired power units according to the succession path of the coal-fired power units based on the succession path of the coal-fired power units, the atmospheric pollutant emission data of each coal-fired power unit, and basic information. A single coal-fired power unit succession path may correspond to at least one standardized net benefit. After simulation, multiple standardized net benefits may be obtained. Decision makers may refer to these standardized net benefits and determine the optimal succession path according to the actual needs of each evaluation dimension.

[0096] In the disclosed embodiment, based on the atmospheric pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, the heterogeneous characteristics of multiple evaluation dimensions can be obtained. According to each heterogeneous characteristic, the succession path of the coal-fired power unit is formulated respectively. That is, starting from different evaluation dimensions, different succession paths of coal-fired power units are determined more comprehensively, which increases the probability of determining a precise, feasible and optimal succession path. Then, the succession process of the coal-fired power unit is simulated according to the succession path of each coal-fired power unit, and the comprehensive benefits under multiple evaluation dimensions obtained by transforming the coal-fired power units according to each succession path are obtained for decision makers to choose. Since the standardized net benefit is obtained by integrating multiple evaluation dimensions, the standardized net benefit reflects the synergistic benefits of multiple evaluation dimensions in the form of economic heterogeneity characteristics. In this way, the probability of decision makers determining a feasible, precise succession path with the best synergy benefits for all parties is increased.

[0097] In a possible implementation, based on each of the heterogeneous characteristics, the succession process of the coal-fired power units is simulated to determine the succession path of the coal-fired power units corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics, including: determining the retirement order of the coal-fired power units corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics according to each of the heterogeneous characteristics; obtaining the climate target constraints of the region where each coal-fired power unit is located, and the climate target constraints include: the expected annual coal-fired power generation in the region where each coal-fired power unit is located and the annual implementation plan of the coal-fired power unit retirement policy; based on the atmospheric pollutant emission data, basic information, climate target constraints, and each of the retirement orders, determining the succession path of the coal-fired power units corresponding to each retirement order, and the succession path of the coal-fired power units includes the retirement time point of the old coal-fired power units and the construction time point of the new coal-fired power units.

[0098] In the disclosed embodiment, the retirement order of the coal-fired power units can be determined according to the values ​​of the same heterogeneity characteristics of each coal-fired power unit. Each heterogeneity characteristic can correspond to a retirement order of a coal-fired power unit.

[0099] Example 1: The order of coal-fired power units retirement can be determined by carbon emissions from high to low. The order of premature deaths from high to low can be determined by coal-fired power units retirement. The order of asset stranding risk from low to high can be determined by coal-fired power units retirement. Alternatively, the order of carbon emission intensity index from high to low can be determined by coal-fired power units retirement. The order of health intensity index from high to low can be determined by coal-fired power units retirement. The order of asset stranding intensity index from low to high can be determined by coal-fired power units retirement.

[0100] Example 2: The retirement coefficient of each coal-fired power unit can be determined according to the atmospheric pollutant emission data and basic information. The retirement coefficient of each coal-fired power unit is used to weight the sum of the carbon emissions, premature deaths, and asset stranding risks of each coal-fired power unit to obtain a comprehensive index. The order of retirement of coal-fired power units can be determined from high to low based on the weighted comprehensive index, or the coal-fired power units can be arranged according to the principle that the total carbon emissions of coal-fired power units retired each year are basically equal to obtain the retirement order of coal-fired power units.

[0101] The above is only an example, and the embodiments of the present disclosure do not limit the method for determining the decommissioning order of coal-fired power units.

[0102] In the embodiment of the present disclosure, the region may represent the region where the coal-fired power unit is located, and the scope of the region may be determined according to actual needs. For example, the province where the coal-fired power unit A is located may be determined as the region.

[0103] Climate target constraints can represent the demand for coal-fired power generation in the region in the future (for example, in the next few years). Climate target constraints can also represent the plan for the implementation of coal-fired power unit retirement policies in the region where the coal-fired power units are located. For example, climate target constraints can include the expected annual coal power generation in the region where the coal-fired power units are located and the annual implementation plan for the coal-fired power unit retirement policy. Among them, the expected annual power generation can represent the annual demand for electricity in the region; the annual implementation plan for the coal-fired power unit retirement policy can represent the speed, intensity, administrative region for implementing the policy, and operational attributes of newly built coal-fired power units in the region. The annual implementation plan for the coal-fired power unit retirement policy can represent the requirements for carbon emissions in the region, such as carbon emission reduction requirements.

[0104] In the embodiment of the present disclosure, the annual maximum power generation of coal-fired power units can be obtained through basic information, and the annual coal power generation demand can be obtained through climate target constraints. The pollution caused by coal-fired power units each year can be obtained through atmospheric pollutant emission data and basic information, and the annual carbon emission requirements can be obtained through climate target constraints. Therefore, the retirement time point of each coal-fired power unit (old coal-fired power unit) in the retirement order of coal-fired power units and the new construction time point of new coal-fired power units can be determined on the basis of meeting the balance of electricity supply and demand, carbon emission requirements, and the retirement order of coal-fired power units. In other words, the succession path of coal-fired power units determined in the present disclosure can meet both the electricity supply and demand requirements and the carbon emission requirements. Therefore, the succession path of coal-fired power units determined in the present disclosure synergistically considers factors such as carbon emission reduction, asset stranding risk avoidance, and public health protection, thereby improving the accuracy of the subsequent determination of the optimal succession path.

[0105] In one possible implementation, obtaining the climate target constraints of the region where each coal-fired power unit is located includes: obtaining the carbon emission target of the region; and determining the expected annual coal power generation of the region in each of the future years while meeting the carbon emission target.

[0106] Policy carbon emission targets can be targets that represent restrictions on carbon emissions. For example, policy carbon emission targets can include annual carbon emission targets in carbon reduction, carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies. Or they can include annual carbon emission targets in energy conservation and emission reduction policies. Policy carbon emission targets can be targets formulated by comprehensively considering factors such as social benefits, economic benefits, and public health.

[0107] In the disclosed embodiment, the expected annual power generation of the region in each of the future years while meeting the policy carbon emission targets can be determined based on the atmospheric pollutant emission data, basic information, and policy carbon emission targets of the coal-fired power units.

[0108] Therefore, in the embodiment of the present disclosure, the expected annual power generation meets the requirements for carbon emissions in the region, that is, the expected annual power generation in the next few years is determined by coordinating social benefits, economic benefits, public health and other factors. Using the expected annual power generation in the embodiment of the present disclosure, the succession path of coal-fired power units can better meet the requirements of multi-dimensional synergistic benefits.

[0109] In a possible implementation, the determination of the standardized net benefits corresponding to the succession paths of the coal-fired power units includes: determining the coal-fired power units put into operation each year according to the succession paths of the coal-fired power units; determining the annual carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks based on the coal-fired power units put into operation each year; and determining the annual standardized net benefits under the succession paths of the coal-fired power units based on the carbon emission reduction benefits, the health benefits, and the asset stranding risks.

[0110] One or more coal-fired power units can be retired at a single time point in the coal-fired power unit succession path, and / or one or more new coal-fired power units can be newly built. Then, according to the coal-fired power unit succession path, the coal-fired power units in operation at each time point (for example, every year) can be known. The operating coal-fired power units can include old coal-fired power units that have not been retired and have been newly built to perform power generation tasks.

[0111] In the disclosed embodiment, the first carbon emission per year can be obtained without implementing the coal-to-electricity transformation, and the second carbon emission per year can be obtained according to the succession path of the coal-to-electricity units. The difference between the first carbon emission and the second carbon emission is used as the annual carbon emission reduction benefit. Alternatively, the first greenhouse gas emissions per year in the region can be obtained without implementing the coal-to-electricity transformation, and the second greenhouse gas emissions per year in the region can be obtained according to the succession path of the coal-to-electricity units. The difference between the first concentration and the second concentration is used as the annual greenhouse gas emission benefit. Alternatively, the first carbon emission intensity index per year can be obtained without implementing the coal-to-electricity transformation, and the second carbon emission intensity index per year can be obtained according to the succession path of the coal-to-electricity units. The difference between the first carbon emission intensity index and the second carbon emission intensity index is used as the annual carbon emission reduction benefit.

[0112] In the disclosed embodiment, the first number of premature deaths caused by air pollutants each year in the case of no coal-to-electricity transformation, and the second number of premature deaths caused by air pollutants each year according to the succession path of coal-fired power units can be obtained. The difference between the first number of premature deaths and the second number of premature deaths is used as the annual health benefit. Alternatively, the life loss time of the first population in the region due to air pollutants each year in the case of no coal-to-electricity transformation, and the second life loss time of the second population in the region due to air pollutants each year can be obtained according to the succession path of coal-fired power units. The difference between the life loss time of the first population and the life loss time of the second population is used as the annual health benefit. Alternatively, the first health intensity index of the unit each year in the case of no coal-to-electricity transformation, and the second health intensity index of the unit each year according to the succession path of coal-fired power units can be obtained. The difference between the first health intensity index and the second health intensity index is used as the annual health benefit.

[0113] In the disclosed embodiment, the first asset stranding risk of the coal-fired power unit each year can be obtained without implementing the coal-fired power transformation, and the second asset stranding risk of the coal-fired power unit each year can be obtained according to the succession path of the coal-fired power unit. The difference between the first asset stranding risk and the second asset stranding risk is used as the annual asset stranding risk. Alternatively, the first asset depreciation amount of the coal-fired power unit each year can be obtained without implementing the coal-fired power transformation, and the second asset depreciation amount of the coal-fired power unit each year can be obtained according to the succession path of the coal-fired power unit. The difference between the first asset depreciation amount and the second asset depreciation amount is used as the annual asset stranding risk. Alternatively, the first asset stranding intensity index of the coal-fired power unit each year can be obtained without implementing the coal-fired power transformation, and the second asset stranding intensity index of the coal-fired power unit each year can be obtained according to the succession path of the coal-fired power unit. The difference between the first asset stranding intensity index and the second asset stranding intensity index is used as the annual asset stranding risk.

[0114] The above is only an example, and the embodiments of the present disclosure do not limit the method for determining carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks.

[0115] Each coal-fired power unit succession path can correspond to a set of annual carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks. The carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks of each year in the same group can be normalized and summed to obtain the annual standardized net benefits of each year. Then, the annual standardized net benefits of each year are summed to obtain the standardized net benefits corresponding to each coal-fired power unit succession path. Carbon emission reduction benefits and health benefits can be positive values, and asset stranding risks can be negative values. The higher the standardized net benefits, the more the coal-fired power unit succession path meets the actual needs.

[0116] In the disclosed embodiment, the advantages and disadvantages of the succession path of coal-fired power units are quantitatively represented from the three aspects of carbon emission reduction, asset stranding risk avoidance, and public health protection, and the succession path of coal-fired power units is comprehensively and meticulously evaluated, thereby improving the reliability of the evaluation results.

[0117] In a possible implementation, according to the carbon emission reduction benefit, the health benefit, and the asset stranding risk, the annual standardized net income of each coal-fired power unit under the succession path is determined, including: obtaining a plurality of preference weight combinations, wherein the preference weight combinations represent the weights of the carbon emission reduction benefit, the health benefit, and the asset stranding risk respectively; and determining the annual standardized net income of each year according to the following formula (1):

[0118]

[0119] Among them, α represents the importance attached to carbon emission reduction benefits, β represents the importance attached to health benefits, and γ represents the importance attached to asset stranding risks. i is a positive integer, α+β+γ=3, Normalized net benefit i represents the standardized net income in year i, represents the standardized carbon emission reduction benefit in year i, represents the standardized health benefit in year i, represents the standardized asset stranding risk in year i.

[0120] Different regions and time periods may have different emphases on the transformation of coal-fired power units (coal-fired power unit succession), and the criteria for judging the optimal coal-fired power unit succession path need to be adjusted according to actual conditions. In view of this, multiple preference weight combinations can be set. The preference weight combination can include three weights, which are the weights of carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding in the same year, and the sum of the three weights can be 3. The preference weight combination can represent the degree of attention paid to the dimensions of carbon emission reduction, asset stranding risk avoidance, and public health protection. The preference weight combination can be manually specified; it can also be automatically enumerated; one or two weights can also be set to select the applicable weight combination from the enumerated preference weight combinations. For a coal-fired power unit succession path, the preference weight combinations corresponding to each year can be the same, partially the same, or completely different.

[0121] In the disclosed embodiment, by setting a preference weight combination, the probability that the standardized net benefit is more realistic and more accurate is increased, and the accuracy of the evaluation of the succession path of the coal-fired power unit is improved. Moreover, for the succession path of the same coal-fired power unit, multiple evaluation results with different focuses can be obtained, which also provides a rich reference for decision makers and improves the reliability and accuracy of the decision-making of the optimal succession path.

[0122] In addition, as mentioned above, multiple preference weight combinations are set so that each coal-fired power unit succession path can determine multiple carbon emission reduction benefits, multiple health benefits, and multiple asset stranding risks. This application can normalize multiple carbon emission reduction benefits to obtain standardized carbon emission reduction benefits; can normalize multiple health benefits to obtain standardized health benefits; can normalize multiple asset stranding risks to obtain standardized asset stranding risks; and then obtain standardized net benefits; and use the standardized net benefits to compare the succession paths of various coal-fired power units. This can eliminate the negative impact of order of magnitude differences on comparisons and improve the effectiveness and accuracy of evaluating the succession paths of coal-fired power units.

[0123] In a possible implementation, the determination of annual carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks based on the coal-fired power units put into operation each year includes: simulating the retirement and new construction of coal-fired power units according to the succession paths of each coal-fired power unit, determining the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in each year under each coal-fired power unit succession path and the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in each region each year; obtaining the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in each year under the baseline retirement path and the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in each region each year; obtaining the total investment cost and basic data of all coal-fired power units, the basic data including: the installed capacity of each coal-fired power unit, the life of each coal-fired power unit, and the commissioning time of each coal-fired power unit; determining the carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks based on the following formulas (2)-(4):

[0124] Benefit decarbonization,i,y =(E Historical,y -E i,y )×CP (2)

[0125] Among them, Benefit decarbonization,i,y represents the carbon emission reduction benefit of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; E Historical,y represents the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in year y under the baseline path, E i,y represents the total carbon emissions generated by the coal-fired power unit in year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit, and CP represents the national carbon market price;

[0126]

[0127] Among them, Benefit health,i,y represents the health benefits of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; Historical,y,p represents the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in region p in the yth year under the baseline path, Death i,y,p VSL represents the total number of deaths caused by air pollutant emissions from coal-fired power units in region p in year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit. prepresents the statistical life value in region p;

[0128]

[0129] Among them, Cost assets stranding,i,y represents the asset stranding risk of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; OCC represents the unit installed capacity investment cost of the coal-fired power unit, C i,y,r represents the installed capacity of coal-fired power unit r in the yth year under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit, LT represents the operating life of the coal-fired power unit, Age i,y,r It represents the operation time of coal-fired power unit r as of year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit.

[0130] The benchmark retirement path may be a coal-fired power unit retirement path determined using a method other than that of this application. The benchmark path may be a coal-fired power unit retirement path determined without considering the synergistic benefits in multiple dimensions.

[0131] In the disclosed embodiment, the second total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units under the baseline retirement path each year can be used as a benchmark to determine the first difference between the first total carbon emissions and the second total carbon emissions each year. The first difference can represent the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions each year compared with the baseline retirement path. The product of the first difference and the carbon price of the year is then used as the benefit brought about by carbon emission reduction each year, that is, the carbon emission reduction benefit. Alternatively, the sum of the second carbon emission intensity indicators generated by coal-fired power units under the baseline retirement path each year can be used as a benchmark to determine the third difference between the sum of the first carbon emission intensity indicators and the sum of the second carbon emission intensity indicators each year. The third difference is used to represent the benefit brought about by carbon emission reduction each year, that is, the carbon emission reduction benefit.

[0132] In the disclosed embodiment, the second total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units under the benchmark retirement path can be used as a benchmark to determine the second difference between the first total number of deaths and the second total number of deaths each year. The second difference can represent the reduction in the number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units compared with the benchmark retirement path each year. The product of the second difference and the statistical life value is then used as the benefit brought about by the reduction in the number of deaths each year, that is, the health benefit. Among them, the statistical life value is the price converted to human life using an economic expression method. Alternatively, the sum of the second health intensity index each year under the benchmark retirement path can be used as a benchmark to determine the fourth difference between the sum of the first health intensity index and the sum of the second health intensity index each year. The fourth difference can represent the reduction in the number of premature deaths corresponding to unit production capacity each year compared with the benchmark retirement path. The product of the fourth difference and the statistical life value is then used as the benefit brought about by the reduction in the number of deaths each year, that is, the health benefit. Among them, the statistical life value is the price converted to human life using an economic expression method.

[0133] In the embodiment of the present disclosure, the amount of investment that cannot be recovered due to the retirement of each coal-fired power unit each year can be calculated, and the amount of investment that cannot be recovered for each coal-fired power unit each year can be summed up to obtain the asset stranding risk. For ease of understanding, formula (5) is used to represent the amount of investment that cannot be recovered for a single coal-fired power unit.

[0134]

[0135] Among them, Cost assets stranding,r represents the asset stranding risk of coal-fired power unit r, OCC r represents the unit installed capacity investment cost of coal-fired power unit r, C r represents the installed capacity of coal-fired power unit r, LT represents the operating life of the coal-fired power unit, Age r Indicates the time when coal-fired power unit r has been put into operation.

[0136] In the disclosed embodiment, the economic representation is used to express the carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks of each coal-fired power unit retirement path in an annual amount. In this way, the carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks of each coal-fired power unit retirement path can be quantified to complete the coordinated quantitative evaluation of each coal-fired power unit retirement path.

[0137] In a possible implementation, the heterogeneous characteristics include: carbon emissions per unit capacity of each coal-fired power unit, the number of premature deaths caused by the unit capacity of each coal-fired power unit, and the asset stranding risk of each coal-fired power unit. The atmospheric pollutant emission data include: coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of each coal-fired power unit, emission factors, pollution control level, and major atmospheric pollutant emissions. The basic information includes: installed capacity, remaining assets, and commissioning time of each coal-fired power unit. Based on the carbon dioxide and atmospheric pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, multiple heterogeneous characteristics affecting the retirement priority of each coal-fired power unit are determined, including: obtaining the number of premature deaths caused by atmospheric pollutant emissions nationwide, the contribution rate of single atmospheric pollutant emissions to the number of premature deaths in each grid covered by the emissions of each coal-fired power unit; obtaining the proportion of various atmospheric pollutant emissions of each coal-fired power unit; obtaining the carbon emissions per unit capacity of each coal-fired power unit; determining the number of premature deaths according to the following formula (6); and determining the stranding risk of each coal-fired power unit using the aforementioned formula (5):

[0138]

[0139] Among them, M r represents the number of premature deaths caused by the pollution emissions of the rth coal-fired power unit, M represents the number of premature deaths nationwide, and P j,krepresents the contribution rate of the kth air pollutant in the jth grid to the number of premature deaths, β r,k It represents the emission proportion of the kth type of air pollutant of the rth coal-fired power unit.

[0140] In the embodiment of the present disclosure, the area where the coal-fired power generation unit is located can be divided into grids. The atmospheric pollutants emitted by the coal-fired power generation unit can cover the grid where the coal-fired power generation unit is located, and cover one or more grids adjacent to the grid where the coal-fired power generation unit is located.

[0141] The number of premature deaths nationwide can represent the number of deaths caused by air pollution nationwide. Based on the Global Exposure-Mortality Model (GEMM), the contribution rate of single air pollutant emissions to the number of premature deaths in each grid covered by the emissions of each coal-fired power unit can be determined. For ease of understanding, formulas (7)-(11) are used to explain the process of determining the contribution rate of single air pollutants to the number of premature deaths in each grid covered by the emissions of each coal-fired power unit based on GEMM.

[0142]

[0143] z=max (0, C-2.4) (8)

[0144] Where C represents the average annual concentration of air pollutants, RR(C) represents the relative risk of disease a when the average annual pollution concentration is C, α, θ, u, v, and z are parameters in GEMM, where α, θ, u, and v can be obtained by looking up the table, and e is the base of the natural logarithm function.

[0145]

[0146] Among them, AF(C) represents the fraction of deaths attributable to air pollutants when the annual average concentration of air pollutants is C.

[0147] M s,j (C j,k )=P j ×PS s ×B s ×AF s (C j,k ) (10)

[0148] Among them, P j is the total population in grid j; PS s is the population fraction of age group s, B s is the baseline mortality rate of disease a in age group s; C j,k The annual average concentration of air pollutant k in grid j is C, AF s (C j,k) is the pollution-attributable death fraction of the population in age group s when the annual average concentration of atmospheric pollutant k in grid j is C; M s,j (C j,k ) is the total number of premature deaths in age group s when the annual average concentration of air pollutant k in grid j is C.

[0149]

[0150] P j,k is the contribution rate of atmospheric pollutant k to the number of premature deaths in grid j after normalization, is the initial result of the pollution-related premature mortality-emission sensitivity output of the atmospheric chemical transport adjoint model for air pollutant k in age group s and grid j, E j,k is the total emission of atmospheric pollutant k in grid j; in the embodiment of the present disclosure, it can be obtained by the atmospheric chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem)

[0151]

[0152] Among them, CI r represents the carbon emission intensity index of coal-fired power unit r, E r represents the carbon emissions of coal-fired power unit r, C r Represents the installed capacity of coal-fired power unit r.

[0153]

[0154] Among them, HI r It represents the health strength index of coal-fired power unit r.

[0155]

[0156] Among them, SI r It represents the asset stranding intensity index of coal-fired power unit r.

[0157] For ease of understanding, an embodiment is used below to introduce the method for determining the succession path of a coal-fired power unit of the present application.

[0158] In this embodiment, the atmospheric pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit can be obtained. Among them, the atmospheric pollutant emission data of each group may include: coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of each coal-fired power unit, emission factor, pollution control level and emission of major atmospheric pollutants. The basic information of each coal-fired power unit may include: installed capacity, geographical location, commissioning time, coal consumption, annual power generation, etc. of each coal-fired power unit.

[0159] Based on the statistical data, the number of premature deaths in the country is obtained. Formulas (7)-(11) are used to determine the contribution rate of a single atmospheric pollutant to the number of premature deaths in each grid covered by the emissions of each coal-fired power unit.

[0160] In the present disclosure, three heterogeneous characteristics can be determined, namely: the carbon emission intensity generated by each coal-fired power unit per unit capacity, the number of premature deaths caused by each coal-fired power unit per unit capacity, and the asset stranding risk of each coal-fired power unit. For example, the carbon emissions of each coal-fired power unit can be measured to obtain the carbon emissions of each coal-fired power unit, and the three heterogeneous characteristics can be determined according to formulas (5)-(6).

[0161] Then, the order of carbon emission intensity from high to low is used as the retirement order of one coal-fired power unit. The order of premature death from high to low is used as the retirement order of another coal-fired power unit. The order of asset stranding risk from low to high is used as the retirement order of the third coal-fired power unit. Thus, the retirement order of three coal-fired power units is obtained.

[0162] In the present disclosure, the three heterogeneous characteristics may be: a carbon emission intensity index, a health intensity index, and an asset stranding intensity index. For example, these three indicators may be determined by formulas (12)-(14).

[0163] Then, the order of carbon emission intensity index from high to low is used as the retirement order of one coal-fired power unit. The order of health intensity index from high to low is used as the retirement order of another coal-fired power unit. The order of asset stranding intensity index from low to high is used as the retirement order of the third coal-fired power unit. Thus, the retirement order of three coal-fired power units is obtained.

[0164] In the disclosed embodiment, the expected coal power generation of each province in the future years under the condition of meeting the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets can be obtained. In addition, the climate target constraint of the province is obtained. Using the pre-set model, the succession process of the coal-fired power units is simulated according to the retirement order of the three coal-fired power units while meeting the climate target constraint, and three coal-fired power unit succession paths are obtained. For each coal-fired power unit succession path, the operating coal-fired power units in each year are determined. Formulas (2)-(11) are used to determine the carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks in each year under each coal-fired power unit succession path.

[0165] In the disclosed embodiment, multiple preference weight combinations can be obtained. The preference weight combination is used to weight the sum of the carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks of each year under each coal-fired power unit succession path to determine the standardized net benefits of each year of the coal-fired power unit succession path affected by the preference weight combination. This process can be represented by formula (1). And by summing up the standardized net benefits of each year, multiple standardized net benefits of each coal-fired power unit succession path under the influence of each preference weight can be obtained.

[0166] In the embodiments of the present disclosure, the optimal succession path can be determined based on these standardized net benefits. For example, the succession path of the coal-fired power unit corresponding to the standardized net benefit with the highest value can be determined as the optimal succession path.

[0167] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the structure of a device for determining a succession path of a coal-fired power unit provided in an embodiment of the present disclosure.

[0168] The device 20 comprises:

[0169] A heterogeneity feature determination module 21 is used to determine multiple heterogeneity features that affect the retirement priority of each coal-fired power unit based on the carbon dioxide and air pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, and to characterize a single evaluation dimension with a single heterogeneity feature;

[0170] A coal-fired power unit succession path determination module 22 is used to simulate the coal-fired power unit succession process based on each of the heterogeneous characteristics, and determine the coal-fired power unit succession path corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics;

[0171] The standardized net benefit determination module 23 is used to determine the standardized net benefits corresponding to the succession paths of the coal-fired power units. The standardized net benefits are provided for decision makers to select the optimal succession path. The standardized net benefits represent the comprehensive benefits brought about by achieving the decision-making objectives.

[0172] In a possible implementation, the coal-fired power generation unit succession path determination module 22 includes:

[0173] A coal-fired power unit retirement order determination module, used to determine the retirement order of the coal-fired power units corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics according to each of the heterogeneous characteristics;

[0174] A climate target constraint acquisition module is used to obtain the climate target constraints of the region where each coal-fired power unit is located, and the climate target constraints include: the expected annual coal power generation in the region where each coal-fired power unit is located and the annual implementation plan of the coal-fired power unit retirement policy;

[0175] The power unit succession path determination submodule is used to determine the coal-fired power unit succession path corresponding to each retirement sequence based on the atmospheric pollutant emission data, basic information, climate target constraints, and each retirement sequence, and the coal-fired power unit succession path includes the retirement time point of the old coal-fired power unit and the construction time point of the new coal-fired power unit.

[0176] In a possible implementation, the climate target constraint acquisition module is further used to:

[0177] Obtaining carbon emission targets for the region;

[0178] Determine the expected annual coal electricity generation for the region in each of the future years while meeting the carbon emission targets.

[0179] In a possible implementation, the standardized net income determination module 23 is further configured to:

[0180] According to the succession path of each coal-fired power unit, determine the coal-fired power units to be put into operation each year;

[0181] Based on the coal-fired power units put into operation each year, determine the annual carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks;

[0182] Based on the carbon emission reduction benefits, the health benefits, and the asset stranding risks, the annual standardized net income for each coal-fired power unit succession path is determined.

[0183] In a possible implementation, the annual standardized net income of each coal-fired power unit under the succession path is determined according to the carbon emission reduction benefits, the health benefits, and the asset stranding risks, including:

[0184] Acquire a plurality of preference weight combinations, wherein the preference weight combinations represent respective weights for carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks;

[0185] The annual standardized net income for each year is determined according to the following formula:

[0186]

[0187] Among them, α represents the importance attached to carbon emission reduction benefits, β represents the importance attached to health benefits, and γ represents the importance attached to asset stranding risks. i is a positive integer, α+β+γ=3, Normalized net benefit i represents the standardized net income in year i, represents the standardized carbon emission reduction benefit in year i, represents the standardized health benefit in year i, represents the standardized asset stranding risk in year i.

[0188] In a possible implementation, the determination of annual carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks based on the annual coal-fired power units put into operation includes:

[0189] According to the succession paths of various coal-fired power units, the decommissioning and new construction of coal-fired power units were simulated to determine the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in each year under each succession path of coal-fired power units and the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in each region in each year;

[0190] Obtain the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in each year under the baseline retirement path, and the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in each region in each year;

[0191] Obtaining the total investment cost and basic data of all coal-fired power units, wherein the basic data includes: the installed capacity of each coal-fired power unit, the life of each coal-fired power unit, and the commissioning time of each coal-fired power unit;

[0192] The carbon reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks are determined based on the following formula:

[0193] Benefit decarbonization,i,y =(E Historical,y -E i,y )×CP

[0194] Among them, Benefit decarbonization,i,y represents the carbon emission reduction benefit of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; E Historical,y represents the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in year y under the baseline path, E i,y represents the total carbon emissions generated by the coal-fired power unit in year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit, and CP represents the national carbon market price;

[0195]

[0196] Among them, Benefit health,i,y represents the health benefits of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; Historical,y,p represents the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in region p in the yth year under the baseline path, Death i,y,p VSL represents the total number of deaths caused by air pollutant emissions from coal-fired power units in region p in year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit. p represents the statistical life value in region p;

[0197]

[0198] Among them, Cost assets stranding,i,y represents the asset stranding risk of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; OCC represents the unit installed capacity investment cost of the coal-fired power unit, C i,y,r represents the installed capacity of coal-fired power unit r in the yth year under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit, LT represents the operating life of the coal-fired power unit, Age i,y,r It represents the operation time of coal-fired power unit r as of year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit.

[0199] In a possible implementation, the heterogeneous characteristics include: carbon emissions per unit capacity of each coal-fired power unit, the number of premature deaths caused by the unit capacity of each coal-fired power unit, and the asset stranding risk of each coal-fired power unit. The air pollutant emission data include: coal consumption per kilowatt-hour, emission factor, pollution control level, and major air pollutant emissions of each coal-fired power unit. The basic information includes: installed capacity, remaining assets, and commissioning time of each coal-fired power unit. The heterogeneous characteristic determination module 21 is further used to:

[0200] Obtain the number of premature deaths caused by air pollutant emissions nationwide, and the contribution rate of single air pollutant emissions to the number of premature deaths in each grid covered by the emissions of each coal-fired power unit;

[0201] Obtain the emission proportion of various air pollutants of each coal-fired power unit;

[0202] Obtain the carbon emissions per unit of production capacity of each coal-fired power unit;

[0203] The number of premature deaths and the risk of stranded assets are determined according to the following formula:

[0204]

[0205] Among them, M r represents the number of premature deaths caused by the unit capacity of the rth coal-fired power unit, M represents the number of premature deaths nationwide, and P j,k represents the contribution rate of the kth air pollutant in the jth grid to the number of premature deaths, β rk represents the emission proportion of the kth type of air pollutant of the rth coal-fired power unit;

[0206]

[0207] Among them, Cost assets stranding,r represents the asset stranding risk of coal-fired power unit r, OCC r represents the unit installed capacity investment cost of coal-fired power unit r, C r represents the installed capacity of coal-fired power unit r, LT represents the operating life of the coal-fired power unit, Age r Indicates the time when coal-fired power unit r has been put into operation.

[0208] In some embodiments, the functions or modules included in the device provided by the embodiments of the present disclosure can be used to execute the method described in the above method embodiments. The specific implementation can refer to the description of the above method embodiments, and for the sake of brevity, it will not be repeated here.

[0209] The embodiments of the present disclosure have been described above, and the above description is exemplary, not exhaustive, and is not limited to the disclosed embodiments. Many modifications and changes will be apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art without departing from the scope and spirit of the described embodiments. The selection of terms used herein is intended to best explain the principles of the embodiments, practical applications, or technical improvements in the market, or to enable other persons of ordinary skill in the art to understand the embodiments disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A method for formulating a succession path for a coal-fired power unit, characterized in that: include: Based on the carbon dioxide and air pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, multiple heterogeneous characteristics that affect the retirement priority of each coal-fired power unit are determined, and a single heterogeneous characteristic is used to represent a single evaluation dimension; Based on the heterogeneous characteristics, the succession process of the coal-fired power generation units is simulated to determine the succession path of the coal-fired power generation units corresponding to the heterogeneous characteristics; The standardized net benefits corresponding to the succession paths of the coal-fired power units are determined. The standardized net benefits are provided to decision makers for selecting the optimal succession path. The standardized net benefits represent the comprehensive benefits brought about by achieving the decision-making objectives.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Based on the heterogeneous characteristics, the succession process of coal-fired power units is simulated to determine the succession path of coal-fired power units corresponding to the heterogeneous characteristics, including: According to each of the heterogeneous characteristics, determining a retirement sequence of coal-fired power units corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics; Obtaining climate target constraints for the region where each coal-fired power unit is located, wherein the climate target constraints include: expected annual coal-fired power generation in the region where each coal-fired power unit is located and an annual implementation plan for coal-fired power unit retirement policies; Based on the atmospheric pollutant emission data, basic information, climate target constraints, and the retirement sequences, the coal-fired power unit succession paths corresponding to the retirement sequences are determined, and the coal-fired power unit succession paths include the retirement time points of old coal-fired power units and the construction time points of new coal-fired power units.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The obtaining of climate target constraints for the region where each coal-fired power unit is located includes: Obtaining carbon emission targets for the region; Determine the expected annual coal electricity generation for the region in each of the future years while meeting the carbon emission targets.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The determination of the standardized net benefits corresponding to the succession paths of the coal-fired power units includes: According to the succession path of each coal-fired power unit, determine the coal-fired power units to be put into operation each year; Based on the coal-fired power units put into operation each year, determine the annual carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks; Based on the carbon emission reduction benefits, the health benefits, and the asset stranding risks, the annual standardized net income for each coal-fired power unit succession path is determined.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that According to the carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks, the annual standardized net income of each coal-fired power unit under the succession path is determined, including: Acquire a plurality of preference weight combinations, wherein the preference weight combinations represent respective weights for carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks; The annual standardized net income for each year is determined according to the following formula: Among them, α represents the importance attached to carbon emission reduction benefits, β represents the importance attached to health benefits, and γ represents the importance attached to asset stranding risks. i is a positive integer, α+β+γ=3, Normalized net benefit i represents the standardized net income in year i, represents the standardized carbon emission reduction benefit in year i, represents the standardized health benefit in year i, represents the standardized asset stranding risk in year i.

6. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that The above-mentioned determination of annual carbon emission reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks based on the coal-fired power units put into operation each year includes: According to the succession paths of various coal-fired power units, the decommissioning and new construction of coal-fired power units were simulated to determine the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in each year under each succession path of coal-fired power units and the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in each region in each year; Obtain the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in each year under the baseline retirement pathway and the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in each region in each year; Obtaining the total investment cost and basic data of all coal-fired power units, wherein the basic data includes: the installed capacity of each coal-fired power unit, the life of each coal-fired power unit, and the commissioning time of each coal-fired power unit; The carbon reduction benefits, health benefits, and asset stranding risks are determined based on the following formula: Benefit decarbonization,i,y =(And Historical,y -AND i,y )×CP Among them, Benefit decarbonization,i,y represents the carbon emission reduction benefit of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; E Historical,y represents the total carbon emissions generated by coal-fired power units in year y under the baseline path, E i,y represents the total carbon emissions generated by the coal-fired power unit in year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit, and CP represents the national carbon market price; Among them, Benefit health,i,y represents the health benefit of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; Historical,y,p represents the total number of deaths caused by coal-fired power units in region p in the yth year under the baseline path, Death i,y,p VSL represents the total number of deaths caused by air pollutant emissions from coal-fired power units in region p in year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit. p represents the statistical life value in region p; Among them, Cost assetsstranding,i,y represents the asset stranding risk of the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit in year y; OCC represents the unit installed capacity investment cost of the coal-fired power unit, C i,y,r represents the installed capacity of coal-fired power unit r in the yth year under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit, LT represents the operating life of the coal-fired power unit, Age i,y,r It represents the operation time of coal-fired power unit r as of year y under the succession path of the i-th coal-fired power unit.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The heterogeneous characteristics include: carbon emissions per unit capacity of each coal-fired power unit, the number of premature deaths caused by the unit capacity of each coal-fired power unit, and the asset stranding risk of each coal-fired power unit. The atmospheric pollutant emission data include: coal consumption per kilowatt-hour, emission factor, pollution control level, and major atmospheric pollutant emissions of each coal-fired power unit. The basic information includes: installed capacity, remaining assets, and commissioning time of each coal-fired power unit. Based on the carbon dioxide and atmospheric pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, multiple heterogeneous characteristics that affect the retirement priority of each coal-fired power unit are determined, including: Obtain the number of premature deaths caused by air pollutant emissions nationwide, and the contribution rate of single air pollutant emissions to the number of premature deaths in each grid covered by the emissions of each coal-fired power unit; Obtain the emission proportion of various air pollutants of each coal-fired power unit; Obtain the carbon emissions per unit of production capacity of each coal-fired power unit; The number of premature deaths and the risk of stranded assets are determined according to the following formula: M r =M*∑ k (P j，k *β r，k ) Among them, M r represents the number of premature deaths caused by the unit capacity of the rth coal-fired power unit, M represents the number of premature deaths nationwide, and P j,k represents the contribution rate of the kth air pollutant in the jth grid to the number of premature deaths, β r，k represents the emission proportion of the kth type of air pollutant of the rth coal-fired power unit; Among them, Cost assetsstranding,r represents the asset stranding risk of coal-fired power unit r, OCC r represents the unit installed capacity investment cost of coal-fired power unit r, C r represents the installed capacity of coal-fired power unit r, LT represents the operating life of the coal-fired power unit, Age r Indicates the time when coal-fired power unit r has been put into operation.

8. A device for formulating a succession path of a coal-fired power unit, characterized in that: include: A heterogeneity feature determination module is used to determine multiple heterogeneity features that affect the retirement priority of each coal-fired power unit based on the carbon dioxide and air pollutant emission data and basic information of each coal-fired power unit, and to represent a single evaluation dimension with a single heterogeneity feature; A coal-fired power unit succession path determination module, used to simulate the coal-fired power unit succession process based on each of the heterogeneous characteristics, and determine the coal-fired power unit succession path corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics; The standardized net benefit determination module is used to determine the standardized net benefits corresponding to the succession paths of the coal-fired power units. The standardized net benefits are provided for decision makers to select the optimal succession path. The standardized net benefits represent the comprehensive benefits brought about by achieving the decision-making goals.

9. The device according to claim 8, characterized in that The coal-fired power unit succession path determination module includes: A coal-fired power unit retirement order determination module, used to determine the retirement order of the coal-fired power units corresponding to each of the heterogeneous characteristics according to each of the heterogeneous characteristics; A climate target constraint acquisition module is used to obtain the climate target constraints of the region where each coal-fired power unit is located, and the climate target constraints include: the expected annual coal power generation in the region where each coal-fired power unit is located and the annual implementation plan of the coal-fired power unit retirement policy; The power unit succession path determination submodule is used to determine the coal-fired power unit succession path corresponding to each retirement sequence based on the atmospheric pollutant emission data, basic information, climate target constraints, and each retirement sequence, and the coal-fired power unit succession path includes the retirement time point of the old coal-fired power unit and the construction time point of the new coal-fired power unit.

10. The device according to claim 9, characterized in that The climate target constraint acquisition module is further used to: Obtaining carbon emission targets for the region; Determine the expected annual coal electricity generation for the region in each of the future years while meeting the carbon emission targets.

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