Natural gas industry chain simulation method and system, storage medium and electronic equipment

Abstract

The invention provides a natural gas industry chain simulation method and system, a computer readable storage medium and electronic equipment, and relates to the technical field of oil and gas simulation tests.The method comprises the steps that a natural gas industry chain simulation model is constructed, and the natural gas industry chain simulation model comprises initial values of all preset indexes; determining a time sequence-based production constraint condition of the natural gas industry chain simulation model; and inputting a to-be-predicted production condition into the natural gas industry chain simulation model for operation, and obtaining a production operation condition after a preset time period. A set of production operation simulation model which can cover each link of the natural gas industry chain and is based on a time sequence is established by adopting a graph theory and system dynamics, and the production operation condition of the future natural gas industry chain under subsequent different time period requirements can be deduced by taking a certain time as a period according to different production technical schemes; decision support is provided for natural gas industry chain production and operation, the simulation effect is accurate, and the solving efficiency is high.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of oil and gas simulation testing, and in particular to a natural gas industry chain simulation method, system, computer-readable storage medium and electronic equipment. Background Art

[0002] The natural gas industry chain has a highly networked structure with a complex topology, and its production and operation characteristics and rules are complex and changeable. After adding uncertainty factors, how to truly reflect and represent the complex business operation logic and linkage transmission characteristics in the model has become the primary problem.

[0003] Most of the current simulations are aimed at simulating a local link (such as LNG station) or a small-scale network in the natural gas industry chain, and the solution efficiency is low. In other words, there is an urgent need to provide a method for simulating the entire natural gas industry chain with high solution efficiency. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the above problems, the present invention proposes a natural gas industry chain simulation method, system, computer-readable storage medium and electronic device. The method has accurate operation simulation effect and high solution efficiency.

[0005] In a first aspect, a natural gas industry chain simulation method is provided, comprising:

[0006] Constructing a natural gas industry chain simulation model, wherein the natural gas industry chain simulation model includes initial values ​​of various preset indicators;

[0007] Determining time series-based production constraints of the natural gas industry chain simulation model;

[0008] The production conditions to be predicted are input into the natural gas industry chain simulation model for operation to obtain the production operation status after a preset time period.

[0009] Furthermore, each pipeline in the natural gas industry chain simulation model is connected to a pipe storage change component, and the pipe storage change component is used to balance the pressure in the natural gas industry chain simulation model.

[0010] Furthermore, the construction of the natural gas industry chain simulation model includes:

[0011] Based on graph theory, the natural gas industry chain is transformed into a corresponding topological graph;

[0012] The natural gas industry chain simulation model corresponding to the topology diagram is constructed based on system dynamics.

[0013] Furthermore, it also includes:

[0014] Determine the early warning indicator in the natural gas industry chain simulation model and the preset range corresponding to the early warning indicator; when the early warning indicator is not within the preset range, output early warning information.

[0015] Furthermore, the initial values ​​of the preset indicators include the initial pipeline storage value of each pipeline section, gas source resource quantity, sales volume, gas injection volume of the gas storage, gas production volume of the gas storage, pipeline self-use gas volume and tank storage.

[0016] Furthermore, the initial pipeline inventory value of each pipe section is the product of the total pipeline inventory data and the pipeline inventory ratio coefficient.

[0017] Furthermore, the production constraints include: site balance conditions, total volume balance conditions, pipeline network balance conditions, LNG receiving station balance conditions, daily balance change, and daily accumulated imbalance.

[0018] In a second aspect, a natural gas industry chain simulation system is provided, comprising:

[0019] A construction module, used to construct a natural gas industry chain simulation model, wherein the natural gas industry chain simulation model includes initial values ​​of various preset indicators;

[0020] A determination module, used to determine the production constraint conditions based on the time series of the natural gas industry chain simulation model;

[0021] The operation module is used to input the production conditions to be predicted into the natural gas industry chain simulation model for operation, and obtain the production operation status after a preset time period.

[0022] In a third aspect, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, storing a program or instruction. When the program or instruction is executed on a computer, the computer executes the natural gas industry chain simulation method as described in any of the above schemes.

[0023] In a fourth aspect, an electronic device is provided, comprising: a processor, the processor being coupled to a memory,

[0024] The processor is used to read and execute the computer program stored in the memory to implement the natural gas industry chain simulation method described in any of the above solutions.

[0025] One or more technical solutions provided by this application have at least the following technical effects or advantages:

[0026] By using graph theory and system dynamics, a set of production and operation simulation models based on time series that can cover all links of the natural gas industry chain is established. This model can deduce the future production and operation status of the natural gas industry chain under the requirements of different subsequent time periods based on different production technical solutions with a certain time period as a cycle, and provide decision-making support for the production and operation of the natural gas industry chain. When determining the initial value of the pipe storage of each pipe section in the constructed simulation model, it is directly determined based on the linear relationship between the initial total pipe storage and the proportion of pipeline pipe storage, which greatly improves the solution speed of the simulation model and solves the problem that large-scale complex problems cannot be solved.

[0027] Other features and advantages of the present invention will be described in the following description, and partly become apparent from the description, or understood by practicing the present invention. The purpose and other advantages of the present invention can be realized and obtained by the structures pointed out in the description, claims and drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0028] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0029] Figure 1 A flow chart of a natural gas industry chain simulation method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0030] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the structure of a natural gas industry chain simulation system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0031] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the structure of another electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0032] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0033] The oil and gas industry chain is highly networked, with complex topology, and complex and changeable production and operation characteristics and rules. After adding uncertainty factors, how to truly reflect and characterize the complex business operation logic and linkage transmission characteristics into the model has become the primary problem. At present, most simulations for natural gas are aimed at local links in the natural gas industry chain, or small-scale production and operation networks, and there is no simulation warning for the production and operation of the entire natural gas industry chain.

[0034] In addition, the early warning and operational decision-making of the natural gas industry chain need to be dynamically adjusted according to the complex and changing environment, which places high demands on the timeliness of the solution of the simulation model. For example, the relevant technology uses operations research and optimization for simulation, which is relatively mature in solving general resource optimization allocation, production plan optimization and other problems. However, for large-scale complex problems, such as the entire industry chain, there are problems such as poor solution performance or even unsolvable problems.

[0035] Related technologies also use comprehensive discrete modeling and intelligent agent modeling methods. Although the solution rate is improved compared to operations research and optimization, it can observe the dynamic behavior of each node member and the emergent phenomena caused by the interaction between members, and the degree of match with reality is high, but the implementation process is relatively complex and requires more manual intervention.

[0036] In response to the above technical problems, the technical concept of the present invention is: based on the actual deployment of the natural gas industry chain, a set of production and operation simulation models based on time series are established by using simulation methods such as system dynamics and graph theory, which can cover all links of the entire industry chain. At the same time, the nonlinear problems involving pressure and flow in each pipeline section are converted into linear problems, which greatly improves the solution efficiency.

[0037] Figure 1 The following is a flow chart of a natural gas industry chain simulation method provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, the natural gas industry chain simulation method according to the embodiment of the present invention specifically includes the following steps:

[0038] Step S101: construct a natural gas industry chain simulation model, which includes initial values ​​of various preset indicators.

[0039] It should be noted that the executor of this embodiment is a natural gas industry chain simulation device, or an electronic device equipped with a natural gas industry chain simulation device.

[0040] In some embodiments, constructing a natural gas industry chain simulation model in step S101 includes: converting the natural gas industry chain into a corresponding topological graph based on graph theory; the topological graph includes nodes and edges, wherein the nodes are at least one of the gas sources, stations, gas storages, and sales terminals in the natural gas industry chain, represented by icons of different colors or shapes, and the edges are pipe sections in the natural gas industry chain, represented by line segments of different colors; constructing a natural gas industry chain simulation model corresponding to the topological graph based on system dynamics.

[0041] Each pipeline in the natural gas industry chain simulation model is connected to a pipe storage change component, which is used to balance the pressure in the natural gas industry chain simulation model. During the simulation process, there is no need to consider pressure changes. The nonlinear relationship between pressure and flow is fitted according to historical data, and the nonlinear problem is converted into a linear problem for solution, which simplifies the solution process and improves the solution efficiency.

[0042] Specifically, when analyzing the natural gas industry chain based on graph theory, the natural gas industry chain is converted into a topological graph through the topological abstraction of the connection relationship between oil field production, imported gas, pipeline sections, stations, LNG receiving stations and pipeline networks. The graph contains n nodes and b edges, which are represented by G = (V, E), where V represents the node set of the topological graph, corresponding to the gas source, station, gas storage, sales terminal, etc. in the natural gas industry chain, and E represents the edge set of the graph, corresponding to the pipeline of the natural gas industry chain. Different types of nodes are represented by icons of different colors or shapes, and different pipeline sections are represented by line segments of different colors. For example, the gas source is represented by a green triangle icon, and the station is represented by a Black dots are used to represent the topology, squares are used to represent the gas storage, red diamonds are used to represent the sales end, and different pipeline sections can be represented by red, blue, black and other line segments, respectively, to facilitate the staff to view the entire layout of the natural gas industry chain; then, based on system dynamics, a natural gas industry chain simulation model corresponding to the topology diagram is constructed. By considering the physical capacity constraints that affect the key areas of concern in production and operation, including production, pipeline transportation, gas storage, LNG receiving stations, etc., the correlation and calculation formulas between key production and operation indicators based on time series are established, so as to constrain the operation of the natural gas industry chain simulation model. The constructed model is comprehensive and close to the actual production and operation conditions.

[0043] In another embodiment, the natural gas industry chain simulation model in step S101 includes initial values ​​of various preset indicators. The initial values ​​of various preset key indicators include initial pipeline storage values ​​of each pipeline section, gas source resource volume, sales volume, gas storage injection volume, gas storage production volume, pipeline self-use gas volume and tank storage.

[0044] The initial pipe inventory value of each pipe section is determined based on the initial total pipe inventory and the pipeline inventory ratio coefficient, that is, the initial pipe inventory value of each pipe section is the product of the total pipe inventory data and the pipeline inventory ratio coefficient.

[0045] Specifically, before inputting the production technology plan into the natural gas industry chain simulation model, it is necessary to first set the initial values ​​of various key indicators in the natural gas industry chain simulation model, wherein each preset key indicator at least includes an initial pipe inventory value of each pipe section, and the initial pipe inventory value is determined based on the initial total pipe inventory and the pipeline pipe inventory ratio coefficient. That is to say, when determining the initial pipe inventory value of each pipe section, this embodiment first determines the initial total pipe inventory based on historical data, and then determines the initial pipe inventory of each pipe section based on the initial total pipe inventory and the pipeline pipe inventory vacuum ratio, instead of obtaining it based on nonlinear relationships such as pipeline flow rate and pipeline pressure in traditional methods. By adding integer variables in this way, complex nonlinear programming problems that are difficult to solve are converted into linear programming problems that are easy to solve, thereby achieving overall balance optimization of the entire natural gas industry chain and greatly improving the solution efficiency.

[0046] In addition, the gas source includes at least one of self-produced gas, purchased gas, LNG receiving station, and pipeline imported gas. For example, for self-produced gas (domestic gas), determine the loading volume and commodity volume of different oil fields, where commodity volume = loading volume + peripheral volume + scattered gas volume; for purchased gas, determine the purchased gas volume of different gas sources; for pipeline imported gas, determine the pipeline imported gas volume of different pipe sections; for LNG imported gas, determine the gasification volume, loading vehicles, initial tank storage ratio and initial inventory of different LNG stations; for gas storage, determine the gas injection volume and gas production volume of the gas storage; determine the total sales volume and pipeline self-use gas volume; determine the pipeline storage, and determine the initial balance, cumulative imbalance, etc. according to the pipeline storage, as shown in Table 1.

[0047] Table 1

[0048]

[0049]

[0050] Step S102: Determine the time series-based production constraints of the natural gas industry chain simulation model, including: determining the site balance condition, the site balance condition means that the total input and total output of natural gas resources of each site on that day are equal; determining the total balance condition, the total balance condition means that the sum of the daily gas source resources, gas storage production, tank storage change and pipeline storage change is equal to the sum of the daily sales volume, pipeline self-use gas volume and gas storage injection volume; determining the pipeline network balance condition, the pipeline network balance condition means the daily self-produced gas loading volume, pipeline imported gas volume, LNG gasification volume, pipeline storage change and gas storage production The sum of the quantities is equal to the sum of the long-distance sales volume, pipeline self-use gas volume and gas storage injection volume on that day; determine the balance condition of the LNG receiving station, which means that the difference obtained by adding the tank storage of the LNG receiving station on the previous day and the shipping input volume on that day and subtracting the gasification volume and the loading volume on that day is equal to the tank storage of the LNG receiving station on that day; determine the change in balance on that day, which is determined by the difference between the pipeline input volume and the pipeline output volume and the pipeline self-use volume on that day; determine the cumulative imbalance on that day, which is determined by the cumulative imbalance on the previous day and the change in balance on that day.

[0051] Specifically, it is necessary to maintain the balance of each station in the natural gas industry chain, as shown in formula (1):

[0052] ∑ station input = ∑ station output (1)

[0053] It is necessary to maintain the total balance in the natural gas industry chain, as shown in formula (2):

[0054] Gas resource volume of each gas source + gas production volume of gas storage + change in tank storage volume + change in pipeline storage volume = sales volume + pipeline self-use gas volume + gas injection volume of gas storage (2)

[0055] Among them, pipeline inventory changes include pipeline inventory changes of domestic sections and foreign sections.

[0056] It is necessary to maintain the balance of the pipeline network in the natural gas industry chain, as shown in formula (3):

[0057] Domestic gas loading volume + pipeline imported gas + LNG gasification volume + pipeline storage change volume + gas storage purchase volume = long-distance sales volume + pipeline self-use gas volume + gas storage injection volume (3)

[0058] Among them, domestic gas loading volume refers to the amount of domestic gas delivered to the pipeline network.

[0059] It is necessary to maintain the balance of LNG receiving stations in the natural gas industry chain, as shown in formula (4):

[0060] Tank storage on the previous day + shipping input on the day - gasification volume on the day - loading volume on the day = tank storage on the day (4)

[0061] Determine the daily balance change of different enterprises, as shown in formula (5):

[0062] Balance change = network input - network output - network self-use (5)

[0063] Determine the cumulative imbalance amount for the day, as shown in formula (6):

[0064] Cumulative imbalance of the day = cumulative imbalance of the previous day ± balance change of the day (6)

[0065] In addition, each node and pipeline section in the natural gas industry chain includes corresponding attribute information, and the attribute information includes at least one of the following: node or pipeline section identification, node or pipeline section location information, node or pipeline section type, for example, the attribute information of the gas source type node includes the gas source identification, gas source gas inlet point, gas source location information, gas source type, wherein the gas source type is one of self-produced gas (also known as domestic gas), LNG imported gas, pipeline imported gas, domestic and foreign purchased gas, gas storage gas extraction, etc.; the attribute information of the station type node includes the station identification, station location information, station type, wherein the station type is one of the first station, the terminal station, the compressor station, the distribution station, etc.; the attribute information of the gas storage type node includes the gas storage identification, the gas storage location information; the attribute information of the sales end includes the sales end identification, the sales end location information, and the sales channel type, wherein the sales channel type is one of the long pipeline section, the short pipeline section, the scattered, etc.; the attribute information of the pipeline section includes the pipeline section identification and the pipeline section type, wherein the pipeline section type includes domestic pipeline sections and foreign pipeline sections.

[0066] Step S103: input the production conditions to be predicted into the natural gas industry chain simulation model to run, and obtain the production operation status after a preset time period.

[0067] Specifically, production conditions are to predetermine the quantities of production, sales, injection and production, pipeline storage, tank storage, and procurement, which can be set accordingly according to different scenarios and modes. The generated conditions are input into the natural gas industry chain simulation model, and the operation of various key indicators in the future period is rolled out based on system dynamics, such as the pipeline storage and tank storage conditions of each day in the future, the pipeline storage value of each pipeline section, and the tank storage value of each LNG receiving station.

[0068] In some embodiments, the method further includes: determining the early warning indicators in the natural gas industry chain simulation model and the preset threshold range corresponding to the early warning indicators, the early warning indicators at least including the pipe storage and tank storage of each pipe section; obtaining the production and operation status after a preset time period in step S103 includes: if the early warning indicators after the preset time period are not within the preset threshold range, outputting early warning information.

[0069] Specifically, the early warning indicators include at least one of the following: pipeline storage and tank storage, where the preset threshold range corresponding to the pipeline storage is the threshold range of the pipeline storage of each pipeline section, and the preset threshold range corresponding to the tank storage is the threshold range of the tank storage of each LNG station, etc. Under normal operating conditions, the tank storage cannot exceed the upper and lower limits of the tank storage, and the pipeline storage cannot exceed the upper and lower limits of the pipeline storage, that is:

[0070] Tank storage lower limit ≤ tank storage ≤ tank storage upper limit

[0071] Lower limit of managed inventory ≤ managed inventory ≤ upper limit of managed inventory

[0072] The production conditions to be predicted are input into the natural gas industry chain simulation model for simulation operation, and the change indicators of tank storage and pipeline storage every day in the future are deduced to determine whether they are within the corresponding preset threshold range. If they are not within the preset threshold range, the warning information is output, which includes warning indicators, warning time and other information.

[0073] In addition, the early warning indicators also include the change in balance or the cumulative imbalance, which can predict the change in balance or the cumulative imbalance every day in the future. When the change in balance or the cumulative imbalance exceeds a certain threshold, the corresponding early warning information is output.

[0074] In some embodiments, the method further includes: adjusting the production conditions to be predicted, and repeatedly executing the step of inputting the production conditions to be predicted into the natural gas industry chain simulation model for operation until the production operation status of multiple production conditions after a preset time period is obtained; and determining the target production conditions based on the operation status of the multiple production conditions after the preset time period.

[0075] Specifically, different production conditions can be formed by adjusting preset key indicators, such as adjusting domestic oil field production, natural gas import, pipeline transportation, gas storage injection and production, sales parameters, etc., and different production conditions are input into the natural gas industry chain simulation model to deduce the operation logic of each link of production, sales, storage and transportation and each other, and recommend the optimal production operation plan to guide production scheduling. In other words, this embodiment can design different production conditions for different scenarios and modes, deduce the future production and operation status of the natural gas industry chain under the requirements of different time periods in the future on a daily basis, and provide decision support for the production and operation of the natural gas industry chain. In addition, for emergencies, it is only necessary to change the corresponding key indicators in the corresponding production conditions, which can easily deduce the possible consequences of emergencies on the time, space and intensity of each link of the entire oil and gas industry chain, improve the risk prediction ability of the entire industry chain, and provide a basis for formulating dynamic optimization adjustment plans and emergency response plans.

[0076] Figure 2The embodiment of the present invention also provides a natural gas industry chain simulation system, such as Figure 2 As shown, the system comprises:

[0077] The construction module 201 is used to construct a natural gas industry chain simulation model, wherein the natural gas industry chain simulation model includes initial values ​​of various preset indicators.

[0078] A determination module 202, used to determine the production constraint conditions based on the time series of the natural gas industry chain simulation model;

[0079] The operation module 203 is used to input the production conditions to be predicted into the natural gas industry chain simulation model for operation to obtain the production operation status after a preset time period.

[0080] It should be noted here that the above-mentioned construction module 201, determination module 202, and operation module 203 correspond to steps S101 to S103 in the embodiment of the natural gas industry chain simulation method, and the examples and application scenarios implemented by the above-mentioned modules and corresponding steps are the same, but are not limited to the contents disclosed in the above-mentioned embodiments.

[0081] The technical solutions in the above embodiments of the present application have at least the following technical effects or advantages:

[0082] By using graph theory and system dynamics, a set of production and operation simulation models based on time series that can cover all links of the natural gas industry chain is established. This model can deduce the future production and operation status of the natural gas industry chain under the requirements of different subsequent time periods based on different production technical solutions with a certain time period as a cycle, and provide decision-making support for the production and operation of the natural gas industry chain. When determining the initial value of the pipe storage of each pipe section in the constructed simulation model, it is directly determined based on the linear relationship between the initial total pipe storage and the proportion of pipeline pipe storage, which greatly improves the solution speed of the simulation model and solves the problem that large-scale complex problems cannot be solved.

[0083] An embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a program or instruction. When the program or instruction is executed on a computer, the computer executes the natural gas industry chain simulation system method as described in the first embodiment.

[0084] The embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device 300, comprising: a processor 301, the processor 301 is coupled to a memory 302,

[0085] The processor 301 is used to read and execute the computer program stored in the memory to implement the natural gas industry chain simulation system method as described in the above method embodiment.

[0086] Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent substitutions for some of the technical features therein; and these modifications or substitutions do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A natural gas industry chain simulation method, characterized in that: include: Constructing a natural gas industry chain simulation model, wherein the natural gas industry chain simulation model includes initial values ​​of various preset indicators; Determining time series-based production constraints of the natural gas industry chain simulation model; The production conditions to be predicted are input into the natural gas industry chain simulation model for operation to obtain the production operation status after a preset time period.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Each pipeline in the natural gas industry chain simulation model is connected with a pipe storage change component, and the pipe storage change component is used to balance the pressure in the natural gas industry chain simulation model.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The construction of the natural gas industry chain simulation model includes: Based on graph theory, the natural gas industry chain is transformed into a corresponding topological graph; The natural gas industry chain simulation model corresponding to the topology diagram is constructed based on system dynamics.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Also includes: Determine the early warning indicator in the natural gas industry chain simulation model and the preset range corresponding to the early warning indicator; when the early warning indicator is not within the preset range, output early warning information.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The initial values ​​of the preset indicators include the initial pipeline storage value of each pipeline section, gas source resource quantity, sales volume, gas storage injection volume, gas storage gas production volume, pipeline self-use gas volume and tank storage.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The initial pipeline inventory value of each pipeline section is the product of the total pipeline inventory data and the pipeline inventory ratio coefficient.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The production constraints include: site balance conditions, total volume balance conditions, pipeline network balance conditions, LNG receiving station balance conditions, daily balance change, and daily cumulative imbalance.

8. A natural gas industry chain simulation system, characterized in that: include A construction module, used to construct a natural gas industry chain simulation model, wherein the natural gas industry chain simulation model includes initial values ​​of various preset indicators; A determination module, used to determine the production constraint conditions based on the time series of the natural gas industry chain simulation model; The operation module is used to input the production conditions to be predicted into the natural gas industry chain simulation model for operation, and obtain the production operation status after a preset time period.

9. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: A program or instruction is stored, and when the program or instruction is run on a computer, the computer is enabled to execute the natural gas industry chain simulation method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: a processor coupled to the memory, The processor is used to read and execute the computer program stored in the memory to implement the natural gas industry chain simulation method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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