Power transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization method, device, equipment, medium and product

Abstract

The invention discloses a power transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization method and device, equipment, a medium and a product, and relates to the field of electric power transportation, and the method comprises the steps: calculating the fault rate of a line in each round of ice period according to a design standard, an operation state, an environment where the line is located and historical fault data; calculating a fault rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple rounds of ice periods by using a Nelson-Aalen estimation method according to the fault rate of the line in each round of ice period; calculating a local electric energy loss load value according to the local electric energy data; calculating the residual risk cost of the line adopting the anti-icing scheme according to the electric energy loss load value and the fault rate; and optimizing the anti-icing scheme by taking the minimum sum of the line residual risk cost and the line risk control cost of the anti-icing scheme as an objective function and taking the reliability and the economy of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme as constraint conditions to obtain an optimal anti-icing scheme. The input cost of the power system can be reduced on the premise of ensuring safe operation of the power system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of electric power transportation, and in particular to a method, device, equipment, medium and product for optimizing an anti-icing scheme for a power transmission line. Background Art

[0002] Overhead transmission lines are important equipment for long-distance, high-power transmission of power systems, and their failures can cause large-scale power outages. Due to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather disasters and the continuous northward movement of freezing rain areas, the phenomenon of ice dancing on overhead transmission lines has become increasingly severe, resulting in an increase in the frequency of tower collapse and line disconnection accidents and regional power outages, causing huge economic losses. Power grid companies are paying more and more attention to ice prevention and disaster relief management, taking into account the reliability of power grid operation and the cost control needs of power companies. It is necessary to comprehensively consider risk management and input costs to formulate an anti-icing disaster reduction strategy for overhead transmission lines. Therefore, an anti-icing solution optimization method that can take into account both anti-icing reliability and cost reduction is needed. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of this application is to provide a method, device, equipment, medium and product for optimizing the anti-icing scheme of a transmission line, which can reduce the investment cost of the power system while ensuring the safe operation of the power system.

[0004] To achieve the above objectives, this application provides the following solutions:

[0005] In a first aspect, the present application provides a method for optimizing an anti-icing scheme for a power transmission line, comprising:

[0006] Obtain the design standards, operating status, environment, historical fault data, implementation costs of various anti-icing solutions and local power data of overhead transmission lines;

[0007] Calculating the failure rate of the line in each ice period according to the design standard, the operating status, the environment and the historical fault data;

[0008] According to the failure rate of the line in each ice period, the Nelson-Aalen estimation method is used to calculate the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods.

[0009] Calculate the local power loss load value based on the local power data;

[0010] Calculate the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing solution based on the power loss load value and the failure rate;

[0011] The objective function is to minimize the sum of the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing scheme and the line risk control cost. The anti-icing scheme is optimized with the reliability and economy of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme as constraints to obtain the optimal anti-icing scheme. The line risk control cost is calculated based on the implementation costs of multiple anti-icing schemes.

[0012] Optionally, the calculating the failure rate of the line in each ice period according to the design standard, the operating state, the environment and the historical fault data specifically includes:

[0013] Calculate the ice-wind composite load according to the line diameter of the design standard, the ice density of the environment, the average wind speed value of the environment and the operating status;

[0014] The failure rate of the line in each ice period is calculated according to the ice-wind combined load, the operating status and the historical fault data.

[0015] Optionally, the calculation formula of the ice-wind comprehensive load is specifically:

[0016]

[0017] in, is the combined ice and wind load, l I (T0) represents the ice load of the line in year T0, l W (T0) represents the wind load of the line in year T0, g is the acceleration of gravity, ρ i represents the ice density, d(T0) represents the ice thickness of the line in the T0th year, D is the line diameter; k is the wind pressure coefficient, v is the average wind speed value, a is the wind speed unevenness coefficient, C is the wind body shape coefficient, and n is the nth round of ice in a year.

[0018] Optionally, the calculating of the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods by using the Nelson-Aalen estimation method according to the failure rate of the line in each ice period specifically includes:

[0019] The cumulative failure rate of the line in multiple ice periods is obtained by accumulating the failure rate in each ice period of the line.

[0020] According to the cumulative failure rate of the line in multiple ice periods, the Nelson-Aalen estimation method is used to calculate the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods.

[0021] Optionally, the formula for calculating the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing solution according to the power loss load value and the failure rate is specifically:

[0022] RI(T0+T)=V L(T0+T)×P(T0+T)×t out ×F N (T0+T)

[0023] Among them, T0 is the year when the anti-icing plan is implemented, T is the Tth year after the anti-icing plan is implemented, RI(T0+T) is the residual risk cost in the Tth year after the anti-icing plan is implemented, V L (T0+T) is the value of the power loss load in the Tth year after the implementation of the anti-icing scheme, P(T0+T) is the average load of the overhead transmission line during the ice period in the Tth year after the implementation of the anti-icing scheme, t out is the mean time to repair a fault, F N (T0+T) is the failure rate distribution function in the Nth ice period in the Tth year after the implementation of the anti-icing plan.

[0024] Optionally, the objective function is to minimize the sum of the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing scheme and the line risk control cost, and the reliability and economy of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme are used as constraints to optimize the anti-icing scheme, and the specific formula for obtaining the optimal anti-icing scheme is:

[0025]

[0026] Among them, TC-RCRR i (T0+T) is the sum of the line risk control cost and the line residual risk cost of anti-icing scheme i; RI i (T0+T) is the residual risk cost of the line using anti-icing scheme i; C i (T0+T) is the implementation cost of anti-icing scheme i, RI th is the reliability constraint; C th is the economic constraint, I is the set of all anti-icing schemes, T0 is the year when the anti-icing scheme is implemented, T is the Tth year after the anti-icing scheme is implemented, is the sum of the residual risk costs from the year of implementation of anti-icing scheme i to the Tth year, and t is the variable in the summation formula.

[0027] In a second aspect, the present application provides a transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization device, comprising:

[0028] An acquisition module is used to obtain the design standards, operating status, environment, historical fault data, implementation costs of various anti-icing solutions and local power data of overhead transmission lines;

[0029] A failure rate calculation module, used to calculate the failure rate of the line in each ice period according to the design standard, the operating status, the environment and the historical failure data;

[0030] A failure rate distribution function calculation module is used to calculate the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods using the Nelson-Aalen estimation method according to the failure rate of the line in each ice period;

[0031] An electric energy load loss value calculation module, used for calculating the local electric energy load loss value according to the local electric energy data;

[0032] A residual risk cost calculation module for a line adopting an anti-icing solution, used to calculate the residual risk cost of a line adopting an anti-icing solution according to the power loss load value and the failure rate;

[0033] The optimization module is used to minimize the sum of the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing scheme and the line risk control cost as the objective function, and optimize the anti-icing scheme with the reliability and economy of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme as constraints to obtain the optimal anti-icing scheme; the line risk control cost is calculated based on the implementation costs of multiple anti-icing schemes.

[0034] In a third aspect, the present application provides a computer device, comprising: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement any of the above-described methods for optimizing an anti-icing scheme for a transmission line.

[0035] In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements any of the above-described methods for optimizing an anti-icing scheme for a transmission line.

[0036] In a fifth aspect, the present application provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements any of the above-mentioned methods for optimizing the anti-icing scheme for transmission lines.

[0037] According to the specific embodiments provided in this application, this application has the following technical effects:

[0038] The present application provides a method, device, equipment, medium and product for optimizing an anti-icing scheme for a transmission line. By calculating the failure rate of the line in each ice period, the failure distribution function of the line in multiple ice periods and the value of the power loss load, the time correction is performed using the time evolution effect of the line's application status and the environment in which it is located, thereby solving the problem of not considering the implementation cost and the impact of time evolution on the sustainability factor. The sum of the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing scheme and the line risk control cost is minimized as the objective function. The reliability and economy of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme are used as constraints to optimize the anti-icing scheme, and the optimal anti-icing scheme is obtained to achieve both the reliability and economy of the power system, thereby reducing the investment cost of the power system under the premise of ensuring the safe operation of the power system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0039] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0040] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a method for optimizing an anti-icing scheme for a power transmission line in one embodiment of the present application;

[0041] Figure 2 This is a flow chart of line icing risk cost calculation in one embodiment of the present application;

[0042] Figure 3 This is a specific block diagram of a method for optimizing an anti-icing scheme for a power transmission line in one embodiment of the present application;

[0043] Figure 4 This is a performance comparison diagram of a power transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization method (strategy 1), a Weibull curve method (strategy 2), and a line status evaluation method (strategy 3) in one embodiment of the present application;

[0044] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of the structure of a computer device provided in one embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0045] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0046] In recent years, most of the research on anti-icing strategies for transmission lines has been carried out from a technical perspective, without considering the cost of implementing these anti-icing strategies and the residual risks after the implementation of the strategies, and has failed to optimize the anti-icing strategies according to the specific operation conditions of the lines. In summary, this application provides a method for optimizing anti-icing schemes for transmission lines that is urgently needed by power grid companies, which maximizes the economic efficiency of investment while ensuring the reliability of power supply during the ice period, so that power grid companies can better face the increasingly fierce market competition.

[0047] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present application more obvious and easy to understand, the present application is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific implementation methods.

[0048] In the embodiments of the present application, Figure 1 As shown, a method for optimizing a power transmission line anti-icing scheme is provided, the method comprising:

[0049] Step 1: Obtain the design standards, operating status, environment, historical fault data, implementation costs of various anti-icing solutions, and local power data of the overhead transmission line.

[0050] Step 2: Calculate the failure rate of the line in each ice period according to the design standard, the operating status, the environment and the historical fault data.

[0051] Step 3: According to the failure rate of the line in each ice period, the Nelson-Aalen estimation method is used to calculate the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods.

[0052] Step 4: Calculate the local power loss load value based on the local power data.

[0053] Step 5: Calculate the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing solution based on the power loss load value and the failure rate.

[0054] Step 6: The objective function is to minimize the sum of the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing scheme and the line risk control cost. The anti-icing scheme is optimized with the reliability and economy of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme as constraints to obtain the optimal anti-icing scheme. The line risk control cost is calculated based on the implementation costs of multiple anti-icing schemes.

[0055] Implement the above steps 1 to 6, by calculating the failure rate of the line in each ice period, the failure distribution function of the line in multiple ice periods and the value of the power loss load, and using the time evolution effect of the line's original application status and the environment in which it is located to perform time correction, the problem of not considering the implementation cost and the impact of time evolution on the sustainability factor is solved, and the sum of the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing scheme and the line risk control cost is minimized as the objective function. Taking the reliability and economy of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme as constraints, the anti-icing scheme is optimized to obtain the optimal anti-icing scheme to achieve both the reliability and economy of the power system, thereby reducing the investment cost of the power system while ensuring the safe operation of the power system.

[0056] In another exemplary embodiment of the present application, the calculating the failure rate of the line in each ice period according to the design standard, the operating status, the environment and the historical fault data specifically includes:

[0057] The ice-wind combined load is calculated based on the line diameter of the design standard, the ice density of the environment, the average wind speed of the environment and the operating status; the failure rate of the line in each ice period is calculated based on the ice-wind combined load, the operating status and the historical fault data.

[0058] The calculation formula of the ice-wind comprehensive load is specifically:

[0059]

[0060] in, is the combined ice and wind load, l I (T0) represents the ice load of the line in year T0, l W (T0) represents the wind load of the line in year T0, g is the acceleration of gravity, ρ i represents the ice density, d(T0) represents the ice thickness of the line in the T0th year, D is the line diameter; k is the wind pressure coefficient, v is the average wind speed value, a is the wind speed unevenness coefficient, C is the wind body shape coefficient, and n is the nth round of ice in a year.

[0061] In another exemplary embodiment of the present application, the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods is calculated using the Nelson-Aalen estimation method according to the failure rate of the line in each ice period, specifically including:

[0062] The cumulative failure rate of the line in multiple ice periods is obtained by accumulating the failure rate in each ice period of the line.

[0063] According to the cumulative failure rate of the line in multiple ice periods, the Nelson-Aalen estimation method is used to calculate the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods.

[0064] In another exemplary embodiment of the present application, the formula for calculating the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing solution according to the power loss load value and the failure rate is specifically:

[0065] RI(T0+T)=V L (T0+T)×P(T0+T)×t out ×F N (T0+T)

[0066] Among them, T0 is the year when the anti-icing plan is implemented, T is the Tth year after the anti-icing plan is implemented, RI(T0+T) is the residual risk cost in the Tth year after the anti-icing plan is implemented, V L (T0+T) is the value of the power loss load in the Tth year after the implementation of the anti-icing scheme, P(T0+T) is the average load of the overhead transmission line during the ice period in the Tth year after the implementation of the anti-icing scheme, t out is the mean time to repair a fault, FN (T0+T) is the failure rate distribution function in the Nth ice period in the Tth year after the implementation of the anti-icing plan.

[0067] In another exemplary embodiment of the present application, step 2-step 3 specifically includes:

[0068] The failure rate of the line in each ice period is calculated based on the design standard, operating status, environment and historical fault data of the overhead transmission line, and the failure rate distribution function F of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods is estimated using the Nelson-Aalen estimation method. N .

[0069] The Nelson-Aalen estimation method is used to estimate the failure rate distribution function F of overhead transmission lines in multiple ice ages in year T0. N (T0), specifically including:

[0070] The failure rate of the transmission line during the ice age is mapped to the mortality rate in the Nelson-Aalen estimation method. The failure rate distribution function F during the ice age is calculated based on the line failure rate during the Nth ice age in the T0th year. N (T0), the calculation formula is as follows:

[0071] F N (T0) = 1-e -ΛN(T0)

[0072] Where N is the number of ice ages that occurred in a year, Λ N (T0) is the cumulative failure rate of the line in the Nth ice period in the T0th year, and its calculation method is:

[0073]

[0074] where λ n (T0) is the line failure rate in the nth ice age in the T0th year, and its calculation method is:

[0075]

[0076] Where λ0 is the failure rate of overhead transmission lines under normal weather conditions; l C n (T0) is the combined ice-wind load on the overhead transmission line during the nth ice period in year T0; L min (T0) is the effective value of the design load on the overhead transmission line in year T0; L max (T0) is the limit threshold of the load borne by the overhead transmission line in year T0, that is, the operating state of the overhead line. C n The calculation formula for (T0) is:

[0077]

[0078] In the formula, l I (T0) represents the ice load of the line in year T0, l W (T0) represents the wind load of the line in year T0, g is the acceleration of gravity, ρ i represents the ice density, d(T0) represents the ice thickness of the line in the T0th year, D is the line diameter; k is the wind pressure coefficient, v is the average wind speed value, a is the wind speed unevenness coefficient, C is the wind body shape coefficient, and n is the nth round of ice in a year.

[0079] In another exemplary embodiment of the present application, step 4-step 5 specifically includes: using the production function method to calculate the local power loss load value according to the economic data and power consumption data of the region where the overhead transmission line belongs in year T0, and using the power loss load value V of the overhead transmission line L (T0), load P(T0) in the ice age of year T0, mean fault repair time t out And the line failure rate distribution function F in year T0 N (T0) Calculate the line icing risk cost RI(T0), that is:

[0080] RI(T0)=V L (T0)×P(T0)×t out ×F N (T0).

[0081] The line icing risk cost after the implementation of the anti-icing scheme is defined as the line residual risk cost. Considering the periodicity of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme, the line residual risk cost after the implementation of the anti-icing scheme T years is calculated. The calculation formula is:

[0082] RI(T0+T)=V L (T0+T)×P(T0+T)×t out ×F N (T0+T).

[0083] In the calculation formula of the residual risk cost of the line after the implementation of the anti-icing plan T years later, the failure rate distribution function F after T years is N (T0+T) is calculated by the ice thickness d(T0+T) after T years and the effective value L after T years of the design value of the load on the overhead transmission line. min (T0+T), the load limit threshold L of the overhead transmission line after T years max (T0+T), d(T0+T), L min (T0+T), L max The calculation formula for (T0+T) is:

[0084]

[0085] Among them, d(T0) is the ice thickness of the line in the year when the plan is implemented, and the annual increase in ice thickness Δd(t) satisfies the mean μ and variance σ 2 Normal distribution of ΔL min (t), ΔL max (t) are the degradation amounts of the load limit thresholds of the transmission line and the load limit thresholds t years after the implementation of the scheme.

[0086] In another exemplary embodiment of the present application, the objective function is to minimize the sum of the residual risk cost of the line and the line risk control cost of the anti-icing scheme, and the reliability and economy of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme are used as constraints to optimize the anti-icing scheme. The specific formula for obtaining the optimal anti-icing scheme is:

[0087]

[0088] Among them, TC-RCRR i (T0+T) is the sum of the line risk control cost and the line residual risk cost of anti-icing scheme i; RI i (T0+T) is the residual risk cost of the line using anti-icing scheme i; C i (T0+T) is the implementation cost of anti-icing scheme i, RI th is the reliability constraint; C th is the economic constraint, I is the set of all anti-icing schemes, T0 is the year when the anti-icing scheme is implemented, T is the Tth year after the anti-icing scheme is implemented, is the sum of the residual risk costs from the year of implementation of anti-icing scheme i to the Tth year, and t is the variable in the summation formula.

[0089] In practical applications, the implementation cost of the anti-icing scheme is defined as the line risk control cost. The sum of the line risk control cost and the line residual risk cost of the anti-icing scheme for T years is defined as TC-RCRR (Total Cost of Risk Control and Residual Risk, TC-RCRR). The anti-icing strategy of overhead transmission lines is optimized with the minimum TC-RCRR as the optimization target of the line anti-icing strategy and the reliability and economy of the scheme implementation as constraints. The calculation formula of TC-RCRR is:

[0090]

[0091] Among them, TC-RCRR i (T0+T) is the sum of the line risk control cost and the line residual risk cost of anti-icing scheme i; RI i (T0+T) is the residual risk cost of the line using anti-icing scheme i; Ci (T0+T) is the implementation cost of anti-icing scheme i.

[0092] The calculation formula for the line risk control cost of implementing the anti-icing plan for T years is:

[0093]

[0094] Among them, C i (t) is the implementation cost of anti-icing plan i in year t; r is the social discount rate.

[0095] The multiple embodiments provided in this application have the advantage of reducing the anti-icing investment cost of power grid companies while ensuring the safe operation of the power system. The Nelson-Aalen estimation method and the value of power loss load are used to calculate the power outage risk cost of overhead transmission lines during the ice period, and time correction is performed according to the time evolution effect of the line status itself and the environment in which it is located. The optimization goal is to minimize the TC-RCRR value of each anti-icing scheme, and the reliability of power grid operation and the economy of anti-icing investment are used as constraints to achieve the optimization of the anti-icing strategy for overhead transmission lines. On the one hand, it solves the problem that the implementation cost and the residual risk cost were not calculated in the past anti-icing strategy, and on the other hand, it takes into account the impact of time evolution on the sustainability factor. The proposed method has the effect of taking into account the reliability and economy of the power system for the existing anti-icing strategy, and improves the market competitiveness of power grid companies.

[0096] In another exemplary embodiment of the present application, a more specific optimization method is provided, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0097] The combined ice-wind load on the overhead transmission line during the nth ice period in year T0 is used to calculate the The effective value L of the design load on the overhead transmission line in year T0 min (T0); the limit threshold value L of the load borne by the overhead transmission line in year T0 max (T0) Calculate the failure rate λ(n) of the line in each ice period. The specific formula is:

[0098]

[0099] in, The calculation method is to use the line ice load in the nth ice period in the T0th year Wind load on transmission lines during the nth ice age in year T0 The specific formula is as follows:

[0100]

[0101] In the formula, l I (T0) represents the ice load of the line in year T0, l W(T0) represents the wind load of the line in year T0, g is the acceleration of gravity, ρ i represents the ice density, d(T0) represents the ice thickness of the line in the T0th year, D is the line diameter; k is the wind pressure coefficient, v is the average wind speed value, a is the wind speed unevenness coefficient, C is the wind body shape coefficient, and n is the nth round of ice in a year.

[0102] Based on historical data, it is estimated that the severity of ice disasters will increase and the load-bearing capacity of the line will decrease in the next T years. The specific formula is as follows:

[0103]

[0104] The ice-wind combined load is calculated using the data of the increased ice thickness in the next T years and the decreased load-bearing capacity of the line. The specific formula is as follows:

[0105]

[0106] The failure rate of the nth ice period T years later is calculated by using the ice-wind comprehensive load of the overhead transmission line in the nth ice period T years later:

[0107]

[0108] The Nelson-Aalen estimation method is used to calculate the failure rate distribution function F of overhead transmission lines in multiple ice ages in the next T years. N (T0+T), the specific formula is:

[0109]

[0110] where Λ N (T0) is the cumulative failure rate of the line in the Nth round of ice period in the T0th year, and its calculation method is:

[0111]

[0112] where λ n (T0+T) is the line failure rate during the nth ice age in the next T years.

[0113] The macroeconomic method is used to calculate the loss of load value of electric energy in the area covered by the overhead transmission line. The specific formula is:

[0114]

[0115] Where V L is the load loss value of the observed area; GVA (Gross Value Added) is the gross value added of the observed area, which is equivalent to the regional GDP; ELC is the electricity consumption of the observed area.

[0116] like Figure 2 As shown, according to the overhead transmission line power loss load value V L , load P during the ice period, repair time t after failure out And the line failure rate distribution function F N Calculate the line icing risk cost RI, the specific formula is as follows:

[0117] RI(T0+T)=V L (T0+T)×P(T0+T)×t out ×F N (T0+T).

[0118] Considering the time value of money, calculate the line risk control cost C of the overhead transmission line anti-icing scheme i for T years i (T0+T), the calculation formula is as follows:

[0119]

[0120] Where r is the social discount rate.

[0121] The implementation cost of anti-icing scheme i (i.e., risk control cost) and the residual risk cost are added together to obtain the total cost of risk control and residual risk (TC-RCRR). The anti-icing strategy for overhead transmission lines is optimized with the minimum TC-RCRR as the optimization target and the reliability and economy of the scheme implementation as the constraints. The calculation formula and constraints of TC-RCRR are as follows:

[0122]

[0123] Among them, RI th is the reliability constraint; C th is an economic constraint.

[0124] In another exemplary embodiment of the present application, Figure 3 As shown in Table 1, the line data with severe icing conditions during multiple ice periods in Henan Province from December 2023 to February 2024 are used as an example for analysis. The basic data of the line are shown in Table 1:

[0125] Table 1 Line basic data table

[0126]

[0127] Taking Line 2 as an example, the line failure rate and residual risk cost of the line during the ice period are calculated. The ice coverage data and meteorological data of Line 2 during the four ice periods are shown in Table 2:

[0128] Table 22 Line Icing and Weather Data

[0129]

[0130] The failure rate during multiple ice ages is calculated using metal deformation theory. The specific formula is:

[0131]

[0132] Among them, the value of gravity acceleration is 9.8×10 -3 mm / s 2 , ice density ρ i The value is 0.9g / cm 3 ; The wind pressure coefficient is taken as 0.613, the wind speed unevenness coefficient a, and the wind body shape coefficient C are taken as follows:

[0133]

[0134] Based on historical data, the ice thickness d(T0+T) in the next T years and the effective value L of the design load on the overhead transmission line after T years are estimated. min (T0+T), the load limit threshold L of the overhead transmission line after T years max (T0+T), the specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0135]

[0136] Among them, the mean value of Δd(t) μ = 2% d(T0), σ 2 =0.02; ΔL min (t), L max (t) takes the values ​​of L min (T0), L max 1% of (T0).

[0137] The Nelson-Aalen estimation method is used to calculate the failure rate distribution function F of overhead transmission lines during multiple ice ages. N , the specific formula is:

[0138]

[0139] The calculation formula for calculating the residual risk cost of the line after the anti-icing plan is implemented T years later is:

[0140] RI(T0+T)=V L (T0+T)×P(T0+T)×t out ×F N (T0+T).

[0141] Among them, the value of power load loss is determined by the GDP and electricity consumption in Henan Province, which is 15.697 yuan / kWh; the average fault repair time is obtained by historical data statistics, which is 36 hours.

[0142] The cost of line risk control for T years of implementing various anti-icing schemes is calculated, and the specific formula is as follows:

[0143]

[0144] Among them, the anti-icing scheme is divided into three types: reconstruction, transformation and maintenance. The implementation costs of the three schemes are shown in Table 3:

[0145] Table 3 Cost table of anti-icing schemes for each voltage level

[0146]

[0147] The implementation cost of anti-icing scheme i (i.e., risk control cost) and the residual risk cost are added together to obtain the total cost of risk control and residual risk (TC-RCRR). The anti-icing strategy for overhead transmission lines is optimized with the minimum TC-RCRR as the optimization target and the reliability and economy of the scheme implementation as the constraints. The calculation formula and constraints of TC-RCRR are as follows:

[0148]

[0149] In order to demonstrate the superiority of the performance of the present application, the performance of the transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization method (strategy 1) of the present application is compared with the Weibull curve method (strategy 2) and the line status evaluation method (strategy 3). The results are as follows: Figure 4 shown.

[0150] Among them, Strategy 2 is to determine the anti-icing strategy based on the corresponding relationship between the service age of the overhead transmission line and the Weibull curve, and adopt the maintenance plan in the stable period of the Weibull curve; adopt the transformation plan in the first 50% interval of the loss failure period of the Weibull curve; and adopt the reconstruction plan in the last 50% interval of the loss failure period of the Weibull curve. Strategy 3 is to determine the anti-icing strategy based on the health index of the line. When the line health index is in the interval [80,100], the maintenance plan is adopted; when the line health index is in the interval [50,80), the transformation plan is adopted; when the health index is lower than 50, the reconstruction plan is adopted.

[0151] Figure 4In the figure, the sum of the residual risk cost and the implementation cost is the TC-RCRR value under the corresponding strategy. The implementation cost of the anti-icing scheme for lines 1 to 5, 7, and 10 under strategy 1 is significantly higher than that of strategy 2, but the residual risk cost and TC-RCRR of these lines under strategy 1 are significantly lower than those of strategy 2, indicating that strategy 1 is better than strategy 2. The reason is that the Weibull curve of strategy 2 only considers the change in failure rate caused by the increase in the service life of overhead transmission lines, but does not consider the increase in line failure rate caused by ice disasters.

[0152] Strategy 3 considers the impact of icing disasters on line failure rate, but does not consider the impact of line load on residual risk cost. Figure 4 The TC-RCRR values ​​of some lines in the middle are similar under Strategy 1 and Strategy 3, but their cost distribution is different. Strategy 1 significantly reduces the residual risk cost compared with Strategy 3, which can better ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid. For example, the TC-RCRR of Line 7 under the two strategies only differs by 0.4%, but the residual risk cost of the line under Strategy 1 is reduced by 37.8% compared with Strategy 3.

[0153] Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present application also provides a device for implementing the above-mentioned power transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization device. The implementation scheme for solving the problem provided by the device is similar to the implementation scheme recorded in the above-mentioned method, so the specific limitations in one or more embodiments of the power transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization device provided below can refer to the limitations of the power transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization method above, and will not be repeated here.

[0154] In an exemplary embodiment, a transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization device is provided, comprising:

[0155] The acquisition module is used to obtain the design standards, operating status, environment, historical fault data, implementation costs of various anti-icing solutions and local power data of overhead transmission lines.

[0156] The failure rate calculation module is used to calculate the failure rate of the line in each ice period according to the design standard, the operating status, the environment and the historical failure data.

[0157] The failure rate distribution function calculation module is used to calculate the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods according to the failure rate of each ice period of the line using the Nelson-Aalen estimation method.

[0158] The power load loss value calculation module is used to calculate the local power load loss value according to the local power data.

[0159] The residual risk cost calculation module of the line adopting the anti-icing solution is used to calculate the residual risk cost of the line adopting the anti-icing solution according to the power loss load value and the failure rate.

[0160] The optimization module is used to minimize the sum of the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing scheme and the line risk control cost as the objective function, and optimize the anti-icing scheme with the reliability and economy of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme as constraints to obtain the optimal anti-icing scheme; the line risk control cost is calculated based on the implementation costs of multiple anti-icing schemes.

[0161] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided. The computer device may be a server or a terminal. The internal structure diagram thereof may be as follows: Figure 5 As shown. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, an input / output interface (Input / Output, referred to as I / O) and a communication interface. The processor, the memory and the input / output interface are connected through a system bus, and the communication interface is connected to the system bus through the input / output interface. The processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The database of the computer device is used to store transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization data. The input / output interface of the computer device is used to exchange information between the processor and an external device. The communication interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal through a network connection. When the computer program is executed by the processor, a method for optimizing a transmission line anti-icing scheme is implemented.

[0162] Those skilled in the art will understand that Figure 5 The structure shown in the figure is only a block diagram of a part of the structure related to the solution of the present application, and does not constitute a limitation on the computer device to which the solution of the present application is applied. The specific computer device may include more or fewer components than those shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components. In an exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided, including a memory and a processor, wherein a computer program is stored in the memory, and the processor implements the above-mentioned method embodiments when executing the computer program.

[0163] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, storing a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the above-mentioned method embodiments are implemented.

[0164] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer program product is provided, including a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the above-mentioned method embodiments are implemented.

[0165] It should be noted that the user information (including but not limited to user device information, user personal information, etc.) and data (including but not limited to data used for analysis, stored data, displayed data, etc.) involved in this application are all information and data authorized by the user or fully authorized by all parties, and the collection, use and processing of relevant data must comply with relevant regulations.

[0166] In this application, all actions to obtain signals, information or data are carried out in compliance with the relevant data protection laws and policies of the country where they are located and with the authorization given by the owner of the corresponding device.

[0167] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a computer program, and the computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the above-mentioned methods. Among them, any reference to the memory, database or other medium used in the embodiments provided in the present application can include at least one of non-volatile and volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash memory, optical memory, high-density embedded non-volatile memory, resistive random access memory (ReRAM), magnetoresistive random access memory (MRAM), ferroelectric random access memory (FRAM), phase change memory (PCM), graphene memory, etc. Volatile memory can include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory, etc. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM may be in various forms, such as static random access memory (SRAM) or dynamic random access memory (DRAM).

[0168] The database involved in each embodiment provided in this application may include at least one of a relational database and a non-relational database. The non-relational database may include a distributed database based on blockchain, etc., but is not limited thereto. The processor involved in each embodiment provided in this application may be a general-purpose processor, a central processing unit, a graphics processor, a digital signal processor, a programmable logic device, a data processing logic device based on quantum computing, etc., but is not limited thereto.

[0169] The technical features of the above embodiments may be combined arbitrarily. To make the description concise, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this specification.

[0170] This article uses specific examples to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of this application. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the method and core ideas of this application. At the same time, for those skilled in the art, according to the ideas of this application, there will be changes in the specific implementation methods and application scope. In summary, the content of this specification should not be understood as limiting this application.

Claims

1. A method for optimizing an anti-icing scheme for a power transmission line, characterized in that: The transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization method comprises: Obtain the design standards, operating status, environment, historical fault data, implementation costs of various anti-icing solutions and local power data of overhead transmission lines; Calculating the failure rate of the line in each ice period according to the design standard, the operating status, the environment and the historical fault data; According to the failure rate of the line in each ice period, the Nelson-Aalen estimation method is used to calculate the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods. Calculate the local power loss load value based on the local power data; Calculate the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing solution based on the power loss load value and the failure rate; The objective function is to minimize the sum of the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing scheme and the line risk control cost. The anti-icing scheme is optimized with the reliability and economy of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme as constraints to obtain the optimal anti-icing scheme. The line risk control cost is calculated based on the implementation costs of multiple anti-icing schemes.

2. The method for optimizing the anti-icing scheme for power transmission lines according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculating the failure rate of the line in each ice period according to the design standard, the operating status, the environment and the historical fault data specifically includes: Calculate the ice-wind composite load according to the line diameter of the design standard, the ice density of the environment, the average wind speed value of the environment and the operating status; The failure rate of the line in each ice period is calculated according to the ice-wind combined load, the operating status and the historical fault data.

3. The method for optimizing the anti-icing scheme for power transmission lines according to claim 2, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the ice-wind comprehensive load is specifically: in, is the combined ice and wind load, l I (T0) represents the ice load of the line in year T0, l W (T0) represents the wind load of the line in year T0, g is the acceleration of gravity, ρ i represents the ice density, d(T0) represents the ice thickness of the line in the T0th year, D is the line diameter; k is the wind pressure coefficient, v is the average wind speed value, a is the wind speed unevenness coefficient, C is the wind body shape coefficient, and n is the nth round of ice in a year.

4. The method for optimizing the anti-icing scheme for power transmission lines according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method of calculating the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods according to the failure rate of the line in each ice period by using the Nelson-Aalen estimation method specifically includes: The cumulative failure rate of the line in multiple ice periods is obtained by accumulating the failure rate in each ice period of the line. According to the cumulative failure rate of the line in multiple ice periods, the Nelson-Aalen estimation method is used to calculate the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods.

5. The method for optimizing the anti-icing scheme for power transmission lines according to claim 1, characterized in that: The formula for calculating the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing solution based on the power loss load value and the failure rate is specifically: RI(T0+T)=V L (T0+T)×P(T0+T)×t out ×F N (T0+T) Among them, T0 is the year when the anti-icing plan is implemented, T is the Tth year after the anti-icing plan is implemented, RI(T0+T) is the residual risk cost in the Tth year after the anti-icing plan is implemented, V L (T0+T) is the value of the power loss load in the Tth year after the implementation of the anti-icing scheme, P(T0+T) is the average load of the overhead transmission line during the ice period in the Tth year after the implementation of the anti-icing scheme, t out is the mean time to repair a fault, F N (T0+T) is the failure rate distribution function in the Nth ice period in the Tth year after the implementation of the anti-icing plan.

6. The method for optimizing the anti-icing scheme for power transmission lines according to claim 1, characterized in that: The objective function is to minimize the sum of the residual risk cost of the line and the line risk control cost of the anti-icing scheme, and to optimize the anti-icing scheme with the reliability and economy of the anti-icing scheme as the constraint conditions. The specific formula for obtaining the optimal anti-icing scheme is: Among them, TC-RCRR i (T0+T) is the sum of the line risk control cost and the line residual risk cost of anti-icing scheme i; RI i (T0+T) is the residual risk cost of the line using anti-icing scheme i; C i (T0+T) is the implementation cost of anti-icing scheme i, RI th is the reliability constraint; C th is the economic constraint, I is the set of all anti-icing schemes, T0 is the year when the anti-icing scheme is implemented, T is the Tth year after the anti-icing scheme is implemented, is the sum of the residual risk costs from the year of implementation of anti-icing scheme i to the Tth year, and t is the variable in the summation formula.

7. A device for optimizing anti-icing scheme for power transmission lines, characterized in that: The transmission line anti-icing scheme optimization device comprises: An acquisition module is used to obtain the design standards, operating status, environment, historical fault data, implementation costs of various anti-icing solutions and local power data of overhead transmission lines; A failure rate calculation module, used to calculate the failure rate of the line in each ice period according to the design standard, the operating status, the environment and the historical failure data; A failure rate distribution function calculation module is used to calculate the failure rate distribution function of the overhead transmission line in multiple ice periods using the Nelson-Aalen estimation method according to the failure rate of the line in each ice period; An electric energy load loss value calculation module, used for calculating the local electric energy load loss value according to the local electric energy data; A residual risk cost calculation module for a line adopting an anti-icing solution, used to calculate the residual risk cost of a line adopting an anti-icing solution according to the power loss load value and the failure rate; The optimization module is used to minimize the sum of the residual risk cost of the line using the anti-icing scheme and the line risk control cost as the objective function, and optimize the anti-icing scheme with the reliability and economy of the implementation of the anti-icing scheme as constraints to obtain the optimal anti-icing scheme; the line risk control cost is calculated based on the implementation costs of multiple anti-icing schemes.

8. A computer device comprising: A memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the method for optimizing an anti-icing scheme for a transmission line according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for optimizing the anti-icing scheme for a power transmission line according to any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

10. A computer program product, comprising a computer program, characterized in that When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for optimizing the anti-icing scheme for a power transmission line according to any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

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