Cable joint temperature rise real-time monitoring system applied to dynamic load environment

Abstract

The invention provides a cable joint temperature rise real-time monitoring system applied to a dynamic load environment, and belongs to the technical field of control systems. The monitoring system comprises a load monitoring module, an environment monitoring module, a joint monitoring module, a joint thermal response modeling module and a risk assessment module. Load parameters and environment data of a cable are collected in real time, joint temperature information is obtained through dynamic monitoring frequency, and a system can calculate a predicted temperature value according to a temperature rise model established by a joint thermal response modeling module and compare and analyze the predicted temperature value with the actual temperature. And the risk assessment module performs risk value accumulation judgment, and generates an early warning prompt when the risk value exceeds a preset threshold value. Wherein the temperature rise model is constructed based on multi-working-condition temperature rise data collected by a laboratory, and is calibrated by an actual scene to adapt to thermal characteristics and aging states of different joint types, so that high-accuracy prediction and risk management and control of temperature rise changes of cable joints under complex working conditions are realized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of control technology. Specifically, it relates to a real-time monitoring system for the temperature rise of cable joints applied to a dynamic load environment. Background Art

[0002] In the power system, as a key connection part, the operation safety of cable joints directly affects the stability of the entire transmission line. During long-term operation, due to factors such as load fluctuations, contact resistance changes, and ambient temperature rise, cable joints are prone to local overheating, which can further lead to serious faults such as insulation aging, thermal breakdown, and even fires. Currently, in engineering, regular manual infrared inspections or the installation of simple temperature measurement devices are mostly used for monitoring. However, the above methods often have defects such as response lag, limited coverage, and inability to dynamically evaluate the risk evolution process, and it is difficult to meet the requirements of modern power grids for intelligent and real-time monitoring. In addition, cable joints have different thermal response characteristics in different usage scenarios. Their temperature rise behavior is not only affected by the current load but also closely related to the cumulative changes in long-term working conditions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to build an intelligent monitoring system that combines actual operating parameters, environmental information, and the characteristics of the joints themselves and can evaluate the temperature rise risk in real time.

[0003] Referring to the relevant disclosed technologies, the technical solution with the publication number US20240393271A1 proposes a method for judging the insulation aging degree of a cable T-shaped connector based on a dynamic heat source. By building an experimental system that can control the internal heat source of the cable, the insulation aging degree model of the cable T-shaped connector under various working conditions is measured, which can be used to evaluate the aging degree of the connector used in actual application scenarios. The technical solution with the publication number US10830648B2 proposes an abnormal temperature detection system for detecting abnormal temperatures in cables used to transmit power to electrical equipment. By arranging temperature sensors at two positions inside the cable, the possible temperature range between these two positions is evaluated. The technical solution with the publication number WO2019229656A1 proposes a detection solution for detecting the temperature of a cable and related connectors. By arranging temperature sensors on the insulating cylinder connected to the cable and detecting the internal voltage and current values of the cable, the temperature situation in the circuit is calculated.

[0004] The above technical solutions all propose several technical solutions for measuring and monitoring the temperature of cables or related connectors. However, for the abnormal temperature deviation caused by the aging of these components, the corresponding compensation strategies are rarely mentioned in the related technical solutions.

[0005] The foregoing discussion of the background art is only intended to facilitate the understanding of the present invention. This discussion does not recognize or admit that any of the materials mentioned is part of common general knowledge. Summary of the Invention

[0006] The object of the present invention is to provide a real-time monitoring system for the temperature rise of cable joints applied to a dynamic load environment. The monitoring system includes a load monitoring module, an environment monitoring module, a joint monitoring module, a joint thermal response modeling module, and a risk assessment module. By collecting the load parameters and environmental data of the cable in real time and obtaining the joint temperature information at a dynamic monitoring frequency, the system can calculate and predict the temperature value according to the temperature rise model established by the joint thermal response modeling module, and compare it with the actual temperature for analysis. The risk assessment module accumulates and judges the risk value, and generates a warning prompt when the risk value exceeds the preset threshold. Among them, the temperature rise model is constructed based on the temperature rise data under multiple working conditions collected in the laboratory and calibrated in the actual scenario, and can adapt to the thermal characteristics and aging states of different joint types, so as to achieve high-accuracy prediction and risk control of the temperature rise change of cable joints under complex working conditions.

[0007] The present invention adopts the following technical solutions: A real-time monitoring system for the temperature rise of cable joints applied to a dynamic load environment, including:

[0008] A load monitoring module configured to collect data of multiple electrical load parameters in the power transmission environment where the cable is located in real time;

[0009] An environment monitoring module configured to collect environmental information data at the location where the cable joint is located;

[0010] A joint monitoring module configured to periodically monitor the temperatures of multiple cable joints at a specified monitoring frequency;

[0011] A joint thermal response modeling module for establishing a temperature rise model of the cable joint;

[0012] A risk assessment module configured to calculate the risk value for each cable joint based on the operating conditions of the cable joint and the deviation between the actual detected temperature and the predicted temperature of the temperature rise model, and generate a warning prompt message when the risk value exceeds the preset threshold;

[0013] Among them, the monitoring frequency is dynamically adjusted by an algorithm according to the system operating state, load level or environmental conditions.

[0014] Preferably, the temperature rise model includes a thermal resistance parameter factor based on the characteristics of the cable joint and an aging degradation factor that changes with the service time.

[0015] Preferably, when the risk assessment module calculates the growth value of the risk value, it includes calculation based on the following factors:

[0016] A time factor, such that the longer the cumulative operating time of the cable joint, the risk value is gradually accumulated;

[0017] A load factor, such that when the joint is in a high-load line segment, the risk value accumulation rate increases;

[0018] The deviation factor. If the actual temperature of the joint deviates from the calculated value of the temperature rise model by more than the set threshold, the risk value increases by a certain number of jump increments.

[0019] Preferably, the monitoring system includes establishing an independent corresponding temperature rise model for one or more monitored cable joints; establishing the temperature rise model includes the following steps:

[0020] S100: Under laboratory conditions, for different cable joint specifications, by setting different working conditions and accelerated aging conditions, collect temperature rise data, and establish a mapping model between multi-feature inputs and temperature rise results as the basic temperature rise model T lab ;

[0021] S200: Based on the actual use scenario, perform parameter normalization or calibration on the basic temperature rise model T lab Combined with the operation time, line type, and maintenance records of the joint, estimate the deterioration stage of the joint, and correct the temperature rise model to form a temperature rise prediction model applicable to the target joint.

[0022] Preferably, the joint monitoring module includes one or more temperature sensors arranged on the monitored joint to obtain the real-time temperature of the cable joint.

[0023] The beneficial effects achieved by the present invention are:

[0024] 1. The monitoring system of this technical solution integrates multi-source data inputs such as current, voltage, ambient temperature, and humidity, constructs a temperature rise model based on the thermal resistance and aging characteristics of the joint, can dynamically reflect the thermal response behavior of the cable joint under different loads and environments, and improves the accuracy and adaptability of temperature rise prediction.

[0025] 2. The monitoring system of this technical solution compares the predicted temperature with the actual monitored temperature, constructs a risk value and dynamically accumulates it based on factors such as time, load, and deviation, effectively identifies abnormal working conditions and aging trends, and realizes the transformation from passive alarm to trend prediction type early warning.

[0026] 3. The temperature rise model proposed by the monitoring system of this technical solution supports being formed through two stages of experimental construction and on-site working condition calibration, allows for the construction of independent models for joints of different models and operation stages, and has good engineering scalability and general deployment capabilities.

[0027] 4. The software and hardware parts of the monitoring system of this technical solution adopt a modular design. Each working module, component of the hardware part in the system, as well as the instructions, parameters, and algorithms of the software part can be conveniently replaced and / or upgraded later, thereby reducing the construction cost and maintenance cost of this system. Description of the Drawings

[0028] The present invention can be further understood from the following description in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The components in the drawings are not necessarily drawn to scale, but the emphasis is placed on showing the principles of the embodiments. In different views, the same reference numerals designate corresponding parts.

[0029] Description of the reference numerals in the drawings: 110 - Load monitoring module; 120 - Environment monitoring module; 130 - Joint monitoring module; 132 - Sensor; 134 - Processing component; 136 - Cable assembly; 138 - Sensor hub; 140 - Joint thermal response modeling module; 142 - Micro control unit; 144 - Sensor connector; 150 - Risk assessment module; 500 - Computing architecture; 502 - Bus; 504 - Processor; 506 - Main memory; 508 - Read-only memory; 510 - Storage device; 512 - Display; 514 - Input device; 516 - Cursor control device; 518 - Network device;

[0030] Figure 1 Schematic diagram of the architecture of the monitoring system described in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0031] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the architecture of the joint monitoring module described in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0032] Figure 3 Schematic diagram of the calculation process for predicting the temperature value in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0033] Figure 4 Schematic diagram of the steps for establishing the temperature rise model in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0034] Figure 5 Schematic diagram of the architecture of the computer system adopted in the embodiments of the present invention. Detailed implementation manners

[0035] In order to make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer and more understandable, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with its embodiments; it should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the present invention. For those skilled in the art, after referring to the following detailed description, other systems, methods, and / or features of this embodiment will become obvious. It is intended that all such additional systems, methods, features, and advantages are included in this specification. Included within the scope of the present invention and protected by the appended claims. Additional features of the disclosed embodiments are described in the following detailed description, and these features will be obvious based on the following detailed description.

[0036] In the drawings of the embodiments of the present invention, the same or similar reference numerals correspond to the same or similar components; in the description of the present invention, it should be understood that if there are terms such as "upper", "lower", "left", "right", etc. indicating the orientation or positional relationship, they are based on the orientation or positional relationship shown in the drawings. This is only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, rather than indicating or implying that the device or component referred to must have a specific orientation and be constructed and operated in a specific orientation. Therefore, the terms describing the positional relationship in the drawings are only for illustrative purposes and cannot be construed as a limitation of this patent. For those of ordinary skill in the art, the specific meanings of the above terms can be understood according to specific circumstances.

[0037] Embodiment 1: Exemplarily, a real-time monitoring system for the temperature rise of cable joints applied to a dynamic load environment includes:

[0038] A load monitoring module configured to collect data of multiple electrical load parameter data in the power transmission environment where the cable is located in real time;

[0039] An environment monitoring module configured to collect environmental information data at the location where the cable joint is located;

[0040] A joint monitoring module configured to periodically monitor the temperatures of multiple cable joints at a specified monitoring frequency;

[0041] A joint thermal response modeling module for establishing a temperature rise model of the cable joint;

[0042] A risk assessment module configured to calculate a risk value for each cable joint based on the operating conditions of the cable joint and the deviation between the actual detected temperature and the predicted temperature of the temperature rise model. When the risk value exceeds a preset threshold, a warning prompt message is generated;

[0043] Wherein, the monitoring frequency is dynamically adjusted by an algorithm according to the system operation state, load level or environmental conditions.

[0044] Preferably, the temperature rise model includes a thermal resistance parameter factor based on the characteristics of the cable joint and an aging degradation factor that changes with the service time.

[0045] Preferably, when the risk assessment module calculates the growth value of the risk value, it includes calculations based on the following factors:

[0046] A time factor such that the longer the cumulative operating time of the cable joint, the risk value is gradually accumulated;

[0047] A load factor such that when the joint is in a high-load line segment, the risk value accumulation rate increases;

[0048] A deviation factor. If the deviation between the actual temperature of the joint and the calculated value of the temperature rise model exceeds a set threshold, the risk value increases by a certain jump increment.

[0049] Preferably, the monitoring system includes establishing an independent corresponding temperature rise model for one or more monitored cable joints; establishing the temperature rise model includes the following steps:

[0050] S100: Under laboratory conditions, for different cable joint specifications, by setting different working conditions and accelerated aging conditions, collect temperature rise data, and establish a mapping model between multi-feature inputs and temperature rise results as the basic temperature rise model T lab ;

[0051] S200: Based on the actual usage scenario, perform parameter normalization or calibration on the basic temperature rise model T lab Combined with the operation time, line type and maintenance records of the joint, estimate the deterioration stage of the joint, and correct the temperature rise model to form a temperature rise prediction model applicable to the target joint.

[0052] Preferably, the joint monitoring module includes one or more temperature sensors arranged on the monitored joint to obtain the real-time temperature of the cable joint.

[0053] Exemplarily, as shown in the appendix Figure 1 The architecture block diagram of an implementation manner of the monitoring system is shown, which is used to illustrate the exemplary implementation manner of the monitoring system. The monitoring system can be applied to various power supply and transmission scenarios, such as medium / low voltage distribution cabinets and ring main units in urban power distribution systems, rail transit overhead lines, various types of data centers and power supply places with high power supply reliability requirements, various types of microgrid power generation systems, etc.

[0054] In an exemplary implementation manner, the load monitoring module 110 is used to collect in real time the electrical operation parameters of the power consumption system where the cable joint is located in the transmission line, so as to comprehensively reflect the current electrical load situation borne by the cable and provide basic data support for the temperature rise evaluation of the cable joint. Preferably, the load monitoring module 110 is arranged upstream or in the adjacent area of the cable where the joint is located, and can be physically or data-bound to the line segment where the joint is located.

[0055] Preferably, the load monitoring module 110 includes a current detection unit, a voltage detection unit, a signal conditioning and conversion unit, and a load data processing unit.

[0056] Among them, the current detection unit is used to detect the working current flowing through the cable line. Optionally, a Hall sensor, an open-type current transformer, or a precision current shunt is used to achieve contact or non-contact measurement. The voltage detection unit is used to collect the voltage signals at both ends of the cable to judge the line voltage level, working status, and whether there is voltage abnormality. The analog signals output by the above two detection units are processed by the signal conditioning and conversion unit, including steps such as filtering, amplification, and analog-to-digital conversion, to ensure that the acquired data has high dynamic response ability and signal-to-noise ratio.

[0057] Preferably, the load data processing unit can use a microcontroller or an edge processing chip to achieve real-time analysis and short-term average calculation of current and voltage data, and output load characteristic indicators such as instantaneous current value, effective value, power factor, and frequency. At the same time, this unit supports uploading the above load parameters to the system core module according to the set time period for use by the modeling and risk analysis module.

[0058] Through the deployment of the above load monitoring module 110, a comprehensive perception of the operating load status of the key cable section can be achieved. The collected data can be used as the evaluation and analysis basis of the monitoring system.

[0059] In an exemplary embodiment, the environmental monitoring module 120 is used to collect the environmental parameters of the area where the cable joint is located in real time to assist in analyzing the influence of the external thermal environment on the heat dissipation capacity and temperature rise trend of the cable joint. Preferably, the environmental monitoring module 120 can be installed in the enclosed distribution box, junction box, or underground well around the joint to meet the operating environment monitoring requirements of cable joints in various high, medium, and low voltage power supply systems.

[0060] Preferably, the environmental monitoring module 120 includes various types of sensor devices, such as an environmental temperature sensor, a humidity sensor, an air velocity sensor, and also includes an environmental data processing unit for processing the data collected by these sensor devices.

[0061] Among them, the data that the environmental monitoring module 120 can collect includes: the temperature in the environment, which is the main basis for judging the heat exchange efficiency and the baseline thermal environment level; the environmental air humidity, which is used to evaluate the potential impact of a humid environment on aspects such as the insulation performance of the joint and the corrosion risk of the contact interface; the air velocity, which indirectly reflects the heat dissipation efficiency under natural or forced ventilation conditions. When the air velocity is low and the temperature is high, the system can judge that the current heat exchange capacity is weak, which may accelerate the temperature rise of the joint.

[0062] Preferably, the environmental data processing unit is configured to collect, amplify, filter, and perform analog-to-digital conversion on the analog signals output by each sensor to ensure that the acquired environmental data has high sampling accuracy and anti-interference ability.

[0063] Preferably, both the load monitoring module 110 and the environmental monitoring module 120 are provided with a communication unit, and the communication unit establishes a communication connection with the joint thermal response modeling module 140 to send the data collected by the load monitoring module 110 and the environmental monitoring module 12 to the joint thermal response modeling module 140. The communication unit can communicate in various types of protocols, including but not limited to RS485, CAN bus, Ethernet, or wireless communication (such as LoRa, NB-IoT, etc.), to adapt to the networking requirements in different scenarios.

[0064] The joint thermal response modeling module 140 is used to establish, maintain, and run a temperature rise model. The temperature rise model can be independently established based on the characteristics of the cable joints monitored within this monitoring system. Therefore, different types and specifications of cable joints can adopt different temperature rise models to respond to different temperature rise characteristics. The temperature rise model will be described in detail later.

[0065] Further, in an exemplary embodiment, the joint monitoring module 130 is used to periodically monitor the temperature status of multiple cable joints to continuously track the operating conditions and temperature rise changes of each joint.

[0066] Preferably, as shown in the appendix Figure 2 The joint monitoring module 130 includes a sensor 132, a processing component 134, a cable assembly 136, and a sensor hub 138.

[0067] Among them, the sensor 132 can be a thermistor. The resistance value of the thermistor changes with temperature. When it is connected to the processing component 134, an electrical signal will be generated, and this electrical signal can be interpreted as determining the temperature at the location where the thermistor 132 is located. The thermistor 132 is located on the surface of the cable joint or at a preset measurement position inside the cable joint for monitoring the local temperature.

[0068] Moreover, the sensor 132 can be other types of measuring elements, as long as it can achieve the preset temperature measurement function of the cable joint and meet the requirements of this technical solution. This technical solution does not make any restrictions.

[0069] Preferably, the processing component 134 includes a microcontroller unit 142 and a sensor connector 144. In some embodiments, the processing component 134 is implemented as a printed circuit board to integrate the microcontroller unit 142 and the sensor connector 144 on its circuit. The processing component 134 may further include a housing and is fixed at a suitable position at a certain distance from the monitored cable joint. The microcontroller unit 142 is electrically coupled to the sensor connector 144. The sensor connector 144 is configured to communicatively connect to one or more sensors 132 through a cable assembly 136. Thus, the microcontroller unit 142 can obtain the signals generated by the sensors 132 and determine the temperature at the location of the sensors 132 based on the temperature signals. The microcontroller unit 142 is also configured to record and store multiple sets of temperature data collected by the sensors 132 and transmit the temperature data to the sensor hub 138. In some embodiments, the microcontroller unit 142 periodically and / or intermittently collects and / or transmits the temperature data. And preferably, the rate at which the microcontroller unit 142 periodically and / or intermittently collects and / or transmits the temperature data may vary according to factors such as whether the measured temperature falls within a specific range and / or the detection of machine startup.

[0070] The processing component 134 can be powered and operated by a battery or a DC power transmission device. In some embodiments, the battery can be a storage battery and can be configured to be periodically charged by an external power transmission device to maintain the power. At the same time, when the external power transmission device cannot provide power, the battery can independently provide electrical energy for the processing component 134 so that the operation of the processing component 134 can be maintained without external power supply.

[0071] Preferably, the processing component 134 is configured to communicate wirelessly with the sensor hub 138. The processing component 134 may include a communication antenna provided, and the microcontroller unit 142 transmits the temperature data to the sensor hub 138 through the communication antenna. Exemplarily, the microcontroller unit 142 can transmit temperature measurement values and other information, such as identifiers corresponding to each sensor 132. The communication antenna can be integrated into the overall processing component 134, and the microcontroller unit 142 communicates through the communication antenna using a wireless communication protocol. Exemplarily, electrical signals can be transmitted through the antenna according to a protocol such as a low-power wide area network modulation technology (e.g., LoRa).

[0072] Moreover, one or more microcontroller units 142 can be paired with the sensor hub 138 for directed wireless communication with the designated sensor hub 138. In the pairing mode, the microcontroller unit 142 uses the antenna to send a pairing flag, and the sensor hub 138 is configured to pair with the processing component 134 in response to receiving the pairing flag. The pairing flag contains an identifier corresponding to the processing component 134, and this identifier can be associated with the specific circuit location being detected. This pairing process prevents interference from sensors installed on other nearby devices or other airborne locations.

[0073] Furthermore, the sensor hub 138 is connected to the risk assessment module 150 of the monitoring system. In some embodiments, the sensor hub 138 can include a memory capable of storing the association between the sensor component identifier and the corresponding cable joint, and storing the time-series temperature data corresponding to the identifier.

[0074] In an exemplary embodiment, the risk assessment module 150 is configured to perform real-time risk value assessment and accumulation based on the calculation result of the temperature rise model output by the joint thermal response modeling module 140, in combination with the actual temperature data of the joint obtained by the joint monitoring module 130.

[0075] As shown in the appendix Figure 3 The joint thermal response modeling module 140 establishes one or more temperature rise models for the cable joint. The temperature rise models use the real-time load parameters provided by the load monitoring module 110 and the thermal environment information provided by the environmental monitoring module 120 as input variables, and output the theoretical predicted temperature value T of the cable joint under the current working conditions pre of the cable joint. The temperature rise model can be customized according to the model, material, thermal resistance structure and operating aging characteristics of the specific cable joint, so as to improve the accuracy and adaptability of the temperature rise prediction.

[0076] Embodiment 2: This embodiment should be understood as including at least all the features of any of the foregoing embodiments and being further improved on this basis;

[0077] In an exemplary embodiment, after recording the working conditions of the cable joint over a period of time, the aging degree of the cable joint is predicted through a temperature rise model, and the reasonable working temperature of the current cable joint under specific working conditions is analyzed. By comparing the predicted reasonable working temperature with the real-time measured working temperature, it is evaluated whether the cable joint is in an over-aged state, or whether the joint monitoring module 130 has abnormal operation.

[0078] Preferably, as shown in the appendix Figure 4 The steps for establishing the temperature rise model are as follows:

[0079] S100: Establish a basic temperature rise model; by setting multiple variable combinations under laboratory conditions, including various current values, durations, ambient temperatures, joint types, crimping states, etc., and including accelerated aging test conditions, collect the temperature rise curve; then, construct a mapping model from high-dimensional features to temperature rise results, i.e.: T lab =

[0080] f(x1, x2, … x n ), where x1, x2, … x n are multiple working characteristics during the operation of the cable joint. Exemplarily, they include current value, duration, ambient temperature, joint type, crimping state, etc.

[0081] Among them, various measurement methods can be adopted to verify the actual characteristic changes of the cable joint under various working conditions, including but not limited to appearance measurement, destructive measurement, dissolution measurement, ultrasonic measurement, etc.

[0082] S200: Adapt the basic temperature rise model based on the usage scenario to determine the degree of change in the temperature rise characteristics of each cable joint under the continuous influence of various external factors and the action of time accumulation, and thereby modify the basic temperature rise model to generate a final available temperature rise model for specific cable joints. Correlate the basic temperature rise model with the thermal characteristics of the joint in actual engineering applications through parameter normalization or scenario calibration, and estimate the deterioration stage of the test cable joint based on the actual occurrence values of various indicators, such as actual operating time, line type, maintenance record data.

[0083] That is to say, the temperature rise model is obtained through experimental statistics to be used to evaluate the cumulative changes in the heat generation characteristics of the cable joint itself after experiencing the influence of various working conditions. This cumulative change is caused by the long-term influence of the working environment where the cable joint is located.

[0084] Furthermore, to more accurately reflect the thermal response characteristics of the cable joint under dynamic load and environmental changes, the temperature rise model can be modeled using a hierarchical structure. During the actual working process, using the temperature rise model, by inputting the numerical values of multiple working condition parameters that the cable joint actually experiences and is in, the predicted temperature value of the cable joint can be calculated. By obtaining the current ambient temperature T ambient , load conditions, etc. numerical values, and inputting the established basic temperature rise model, and obtaining the output theoretical predicted temperature value T pre .

[0085] Essentially, T pre is the output value corresponding to a specific input based on the fitting calculation of T lab . And, take Tpre Expressed as:

[0086] T pre = T lab = T ambient + Q(t) × R(t);

[0087] In the above formula, Q(t) represents the heat generation power per unit time, which can be measured by simulation. The heat generation situation at the location of the cable joint is measured according to the cable transmission working conditions.

[0088] In a preferred embodiment, it can be defined that:

[0089] Q(t) = Q(t) = I(t) 2 · R elec ;

[0090] In the above formula, I(t) is the cable current monitored at the current time t, and R elec is the equivalent resistance value of the cable joint. The above calculation formula quantifies the heat source intensity of the joint under actual working conditions based on Joule's law. I(t) is collected in real time by the load monitoring module, and R elec can be set according to the joint type, structure and contact state during system initialization, and can be fine-tuned according to historical temperature rise data during operation.

[0091] R(t) is the equivalent thermal resistance term decomposed from the function T lab and can represent the equivalent thermal resistance of the thermal path, including the comprehensive factors such as internal heat conduction of the joint, thermal resistance of the insulation layer, thermal resistance of the contact interface, and heat dissipation environment (convective heat transfer).

[0092] Subsequently, the deviation between the predicted temperature value T pre and the actual temperature value T actual is evaluated, and a risk feedback is made.

[0093] First, collect the actual temperature T actual of the joint currently;

[0094] Then, calculate the difference ΔT = T actual - T pre ;

[0095] If ΔT exceeds a certain range, it is considered that the joint has an abnormal thermal response or accelerated performance degradation.

[0096] In an exemplary embodiment, a risk value Risk is further set for quantifying the thermal risk evolution process of the cable joint. The risk value Risk is a numerical index that evolves with time and is used to comprehensively reflect the thermal stress level borne by the joint during actual operation and its possible structural deterioration trend.

[0097] Under normal operating conditions of the system, the risk value Risk increases at a preset basic cumulative rate. The basic cumulative rate can be determined based on the operating environmental conditions of the cable joint, including but not limited to environmental temperature, ventilation condition, humidity, etc. and electrical load conditions, such as working current, load duration, etc., and combined with basic attributes such as joint material, crimping method, thermal resistance characteristics, etc. to form a risk base growth function, which is used to describe the aging rate of the joint under normal conditions.

[0098] Preferably, to improve the recognition ability of the monitoring system for potential abnormal conditions, a temperature rise prediction deviation factor is further introduced in the calculation of the risk value Risk. When the actual temperature value T collected by the joint monitoring module actual and the predicted temperature value T output by the joint thermal response modeling module pre have a positive deviation, that is, when ΔT>0, the system considers that the joint has unexpected thermal behavior. The deviation ΔT will act on the cumulative rate of the risk value Risk in the form of a non-linear amplification function, so that the greater the deviation, the faster the risk value increases.

[0099] Preferably, the risk growth function can adopt the following expression:

[0100] Risk(t + 1) = Risk(t) + R base (t) + α·max(0, Δt - Δt thresh ) γ ;

[0101] In the above formula, Risk(t) is the risk value at the current time t; R base (t) is the risk base increment under normal conditions, which can be specifically set after the above-mentioned statistical experiment on the cable joint; ΔT thresh is the deviation response threshold set for ΔT; α is the risk acceleration factor, and γ is the exponential parameter, which are used to control the linear and non-linear degrees of risk amplification respectively. Preferably, 1 < n < 2; among them, α, γ, and ΔT thresh can be specifically set by relevant technical personnel according to the use safety requirements of the cable joint.

[0102] Preferably, during the long-term operation of the system, if it is continuously found that the ΔT value deviation is too high, it is necessary to perform adaptive inspection or update on some weight factors in R(t) or T lab to improve the fitting degree of the temperature rise model.

[0103] Through the above mechanism, the monitoring system can dynamically evaluate the thermal operating state of each joint during continuous monitoring, and quickly increase its risk level when abnormal temperature rise occurs, providing a reference basis for subsequent maintenance judgment and maintenance strategy.

[0104] Embodiment 3: This embodiment should be understood as including at least all the features of any of the foregoing embodiments and being further improved on this basis;

[0105] Exemplarily, as shown in the appendix Figure 5 illustrate the implementation manner of the computer system 500 adopted by the joint thermal response modeling module 140 and / or the risk assessment module 150, or other working modules in the monitoring system; the computer system 500 can be applied to the data storage, operation, and result output processes of each working module in the identification and judgment system.

[0106] Exemplarily, the computer system 500 includes a bus 502 or other communication mechanisms for transmitting information, and one or more processors 504 coupled to the bus 502 for processing information; the processor 504 can be, for example, one or more general-purpose microprocessors;

[0107] The computer system 500 further includes a main memory 506, such as a random access memory (RAM), cache, and / or other dynamic storage devices, which are coupled to the bus 502 for storing information and instructions to be executed by the processor 504; the main memory 506 can also be used to store temporary variables or other intermediate information during the execution of instructions executed by the processor 504; when these instructions are stored in a storage medium accessible by the processor 504, the computer system 500 is presented as a dedicated machine customized to execute the operations specified in the instructions;

[0108] The computer system 500 may further include a read-only memory (ROM) 508 or other static storage devices coupled to the bus 502 for storing static information and instructions of the processor 504; a storage device 510 such as a magnetic disk, optical disk, or USB drive (flash drive) will be coupled to the bus 502 for storing information and instructions;

[0109] Furthermore, coupled to the bus 502 may further include a display 122 for displaying various information, data, media, etc., and an input device 514 for allowing a user of the computer system 500 to control, manipulate the computer system 500, and / or interact with the computer system 500;

[0110] A preferred way to interact with the management system can be through a cursor control device 516, such as a computer mouse or similar control / navigation mechanism;

[0111] Furthermore, the computer system 500 may further include a network device 518 coupled to the bus 502; the network device 518 may include components such as a wired network card, wireless network card, switching chip, router, switch, etc.;

[0112] Generally, terms such as "engine", "component", "system", "database", etc. as used herein may refer to logic embodied in hardware or firmware, or to a collection of software instructions, which may have entry and exit points and be written in a programming language such as Java, C, or C++; software components may be compiled and linked into an executable program, installed in a dynamic link library, or may be written in an interpreted programming language (such as BASIC, Perl, or Python); it should be understood that software components may be called from other components or from themselves, and / or may be called in response to detected events or interrupts;

[0113] Software components configured to execute on a computing device may be provided on a computer-readable medium, such as a compact disc, digital video disc, flash drive, magnetic disk, or any other tangible medium, or as a digital download (and may initially be stored) in a compressed or installable format that requires installation, decompression, or decryption before execution); such software code may be stored, in whole or in part, on the memory device of the executing computing device for execution by the computing device; software instructions may be embedded in firmware, such as an EPROM; it should also be understood that hardware components may be composed of connected logic units (such as gates and flip-flops), and / or may be composed of programmable units (such as programmable gate arrays or processors);

[0114] Computer system 500 includes custom hardwired logic, one or more ASICs or FPGAs, firmware, and / or program logic that can be used to implement the techniques described herein, and the program logic, in combination with the computer system, causes computer system 500 to be a dedicated computing device;

[0115] According to one or more embodiments, the techniques herein are performed by computer system 500 in response to one or more sequences of one or more instructions contained in main memory 506 being executed by processor 504; such instructions may be read into main memory 506 from another storage medium, such as storage device 510; execution of the instruction sequence contained in main memory 506 causes processor 504 to perform the processing steps described herein; in alternative embodiments, hardwired circuitry may be used in place of or in combination with software instructions;

[0116] As used herein, the term "non-transitory medium" and like terms refer to any medium that stores data and / or instructions that cause a machine to operate in a particular manner; such non-transitory media may include non-volatile media and / or volatile media; non-volatile media includes, for example, optical discs or magnetic disks, such as storage device 510; volatile media includes dynamic memory, such as main memory 506;

[0117] Among them, common forms of non-transitory media include, for example, floppy disks, hard disks, solid state drives, magnetic tapes, or any other magnetic data storage media, CD-ROMs, any other optical data storage media, any physical media with a hole pattern, RAM, PROM, and EPROM, FLASH-EPROM, NVRAM, any other storage chip or cartridge, and network versions thereof;

[0118] Non-transient media are different from transmission media but can be used in combination with transmission media; transmission media participate in the transmission of information between non-transient media; for example, transmission media include coaxial cables, copper wires, and optical fibers, including the wires that make up bus 502; transmission media can also take the form of sound waves or light waves, such as radio waves and infrared data communication.

[0119] Although the present invention has been described above with reference to various embodiments, it should be understood that many changes and modifications can be made without departing from the scope of the present invention. That is, the methods, systems, and devices discussed above are examples. Various configurations can be appropriately omitted, replaced, or various processes or components added. For example, in alternative configurations, the methods can be performed in an order different from that described, and / or various components can be added, omitted, and / or combined. Moreover, the features described with respect to certain configurations can be combined in various other configurations, such as different aspects and elements of the configurations can be combined in a similar manner. In addition, as technology develops, the elements therein can be updated, that is, many elements are examples and do not limit the scope of the present disclosure or the claims.

[0120] Specific details are given in the specification to provide a thorough understanding of the exemplary configurations including the implementation. However, the configurations can be practiced without these specific details. For example, well-known circuits, processes, algorithms, structures, and technologies have been shown without unnecessary details to avoid obscuring the configurations. The description only provides exemplary configurations and does not limit the scope, applicability, or configuration of the claims. Instead, the foregoing description of the configurations will provide those skilled in the art with an enabling description for implementing the described technology. Various changes can be made to the functions and arrangements of the elements without departing from the spirit or scope of the present disclosure.

[0121] In summary, it is intended that the above detailed description be considered illustrative rather than restrictive, and it should be understood that the above embodiments should be understood as only for illustrating the present invention and not for limiting the protection scope of the present invention. After reading the content recorded in the present invention, those skilled in the art can make various changes or modifications to the present invention, and these equivalent changes and modifications also fall within the scope defined by the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A real-time monitoring system for the temperature rise of cable joints applied to a dynamic load environment, characterized in that, Including: A load monitoring module configured to collect real-time data of multiple electrical load parameter data in the power transmission environment where the cable is located; An environmental monitoring module configured to collect environmental information data at the location where the cable joint is located; A joint monitoring module configured to periodically monitor the temperatures of multiple cable joints at a specified monitoring frequency; A joint thermal response modeling module for establishing a temperature rise model of the cable joint; A risk assessment module configured to calculate a risk value for each cable joint based on the operating conditions of the cable joint and the deviation between the actual detected temperature and the predicted temperature of the temperature rise model, and generate a warning prompt message when the risk value exceeds a preset threshold; Wherein, the monitoring frequency is dynamically adjusted by an algorithm according to the system operating state, load level or environmental conditions.

2. The monitoring system according to claim 1, wherein The temperature rise model includes a thermal resistance parameter factor based on the characteristics of the cable joint and an aging degradation factor that changes with the service time.

3. The monitoring system according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that, When calculating the growth value of the risk value, the risk assessment module includes calculations based on the following factors: A time factor such that the longer the cumulative operating time of the cable joint, the risk value is gradually accumulated; A load factor such that when the joint is in a high-load line segment, the risk value accumulation rate increases; A deviation factor. If the deviation between the actual temperature of the joint and the calculated value of the temperature rise model exceeds a set threshold, the risk value increases by a number of jump increments.

4. The monitoring system according to claim 1, characterized in that, The monitoring system includes establishing an independent corresponding temperature rise model for one or more monitored cable joints; establishing the temperature rise model includes the following steps: S100: Under laboratory conditions, for different cable joint specifications, by setting different working conditions and accelerated aging conditions, collect temperature rise data, and establish a mapping model between multi-feature inputs and temperature rise results as the basic temperature rise model T lab ; S200: Based on the actual usage scenario, perform parameter normalization or calibration on the temperature rise basic model T lab Combined with the operating time, line type, and maintenance records of the joint, estimate the deterioration stage of the joint, correct the temperature rise model, and form a temperature rise prediction model applicable to the target joint.

5. The monitoring system according to claim 1, wherein, The joint monitoring module includes one or more temperature sensors disposed on the monitored joint to obtain the real-time temperature of the cable joint.

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