prediction device

Abstract

A prediction device 10 predicts a changeover time for types of solid fuels supplied from a storage unit 20 via a supply device 30 to a combustion device 40. The prediction device 10 includes a reference unit 11 configured to obtain a level of solid fuels stored in the storage unit 20, and a prediction unit 13 configured to predict, as a changeover time, a time in the future when a level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels reaches a threshold.

Description

Technical field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a prediction device. State of the art

[0002] A combustion device that continuously changes or switches types of solid fuels and burns the solid fuels is known. For example, Patent Document 1 describes a combustion device that continuously switches between biomass fuel and coal fuel. The invention described in Patent Document 1 changes the operating conditions of a pulverizer according to a mixing ratio of biomass fuel and coal fuel. The invention described in Patent Document 1 requires that the bulk density of each solid fuel be clearly distinguishable. Citation listPatent specifications

[0003] Patent Document 1: Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2015-25582 Brief description of the inventionTechnical problem

[0004] When solid fuel types are changed or switched between, the operating conditions of the combustion device change. For example, when low-quality solid fuels or new solid fuels begin to burn, the operating conditions, such as the temperature in the combustion device, change. Therefore, it is necessary to closely monitor the operating conditions of the combustion device before and after the time when solid fuel types are changed. However, because there is a time lag between the storage and combustion of solid fuels, it has been difficult to predict the time to switch solid fuel types.

[0005] The disclosure describes a technology that can predict the switching timing of the types of solid fuels supplied to the combustion device. Solution to the problem

[0006] A prediction device according to one aspect of the disclosure predicts a switching time for types of solid fuels supplied from a storage unit to a combustion device via a supply device. The prediction device includes a reference unit configured to obtain a level of solid fuels stored in the storage unit, and a prediction unit configured to predict, as the switching time, a time in the future when a level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels reaches a threshold. Effects of the invention

[0007] According to the disclosure, it is possible to provide a technology capable of predicting a timing for switching types of solid fuels supplied to a combustion device. Brief description of the drawings Fig. 1 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a prediction system 1 according to an embodiment. Fig. Figure 2 is a graph illustrating an example of the time-dependent change of a level of solid fuels. Fig. Figure 3 is a graph illustrating an example of a time-dependent temperature change of a gas. Fig. Figure 4 is a graph illustrating an example of a time-dependent change in the concentration of a chemical substance. Fig. 5 illustrates an example of a screen display showing the time-dependent change of a level of solid fuels and a switching time. Fig. 6 is a flowchart illustrating an example of an operation for predicting a predicting device. Fig. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration related to the prediction system. Description of implementation examples

[0008] A prediction device according to one aspect of the disclosure predicts a changeover time for types of solid fuels supplied from a storage unit via a supply device to a combustion device. The prediction device includes a reference unit that obtains a level of solid fuels stored in the storage unit, and a prediction unit that predicts, as the changeover time, a time in the future at which a level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels reaches a threshold value.

[0009] In the prediction device, the switching timing for the types of solid fuels is predicted based on a level obtained by extrapolating a decrease in the level of the solid fuels and a threshold value. At this time, solid fuels are supplied and discharged in the storage unit, so that the level of the solid fuels fluctuates. In the prediction device of the disclosure, the level of the solid fuels is supplemented by the level obtained by extrapolating a decrease in the level of the solid fuels. In this way, for example, even when different types of solid fuels are supplied to the storage unit, the rate of decrease in the level of the solid fuels can be predicted. This improves the prediction accuracy of the switching timing.

[0010] The reference unit may obtain a temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device. The prediction device may further include a determination unit that determines a threshold based on a time point at which a trend for the temperature of the gas changes and a level obtained by extrapolating a time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels. According to this configuration, in determining the threshold, a relationship between the change in the trend of the gas temperature and the level obtained by extrapolating a decrease in the level of the solid fuels is reflected. In this way, the accuracy of the threshold for specifying the switching time point is improved. This improves the prediction accuracy of the switching time point.

[0011] The reference unit may obtain the concentration of a chemical substance generated by the combustion of solid fuel. The prediction device may further include a determination unit that determines a threshold based on a time point at which a trend in the concentration of the chemical substance changes and a level obtained by extrapolating a time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels. According to this configuration, in determining the threshold, a relationship between the change in the trend in the concentration of the chemical substance and the level obtained by extrapolating a decrease in the level of the solid fuels is reflected. Thus, the accuracy of the threshold for specifying the time point of the change is improved.This allows the changeover time of the types of solid fuels supplied to the combustion device to be predicted with high accuracy.

[0012] The prediction device may further comprise an output unit that displays the switching time on a display device. This improves the convenience of a user, operator, etc., when using the switching time.

[0013] The reference unit may obtain the level of solid fuels for each of a plurality of units, each of which includes a storage unit and a supply device. The prediction unit may predict, as the switching timing, a time in the future at which the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of solid fuels reaches a threshold value for each of the plurality of units. According to such a configuration, the switching timing is predicted for each of the plurality of units. In this way, it is possible to improve the prediction accuracy of the switching timing in the plurality of units. Furthermore, the cost of monitoring the plurality of units can be reduced.

[0014] Hereinafter, embodiments for implementing the disclosure will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. In the description of the drawings, the same elements are denoted by the same reference numerals, and duplicate descriptions are omitted.

[0015] A prediction system according to the disclosure is applied, for example, to a thermal energy generation system. The thermal energy generation system stores solid fuel. Examples of solid fuels may include coal or biomass. The thermal energy generation system dries and pulverizes solid fuel. The thermal energy generation system supplies the pulverized solid fuel to a combustion device, e.g., a boiler, and combusts the pulverized solid fuel. The combustion device supplies the generated steam to a steam turbine. The steam is used to generate electricity. The prediction system predicts the switching timing for the types of solid fuels supplied to the combustion device.

[0016] Fig. 1 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a prediction system 1 according to an embodiment. The prediction system 1 includes a prediction device 10, a storage unit 20, a supply device 30, a combustion device 40, a power generation device 50, a gas processing unit 60, a first measuring device 70, a second measuring device 80, and a third measuring device 90. The prediction system 1 may include a plurality of units, each of which includes the storage unit 20 and the supply device 30.

[0017] The storage unit 20 is a cylindrical container for storing solid fuel. One end 20A of the storage unit 20 is an inlet port for the solid fuel. The other end 20B of the storage unit 20 is an outlet port for the solid fuel. A caliber at one end 20A of the storage unit 20 is larger than a caliber at the other end 20B of the storage unit. The storage unit 20 has, for example, a cylindrical tube portion 21 and a conical portion 22 that tapers toward the other end 20B of the storage unit 20.

[0018] Solid fuel is supplied from one end 20A of the storage unit 20 and stacked within the storage unit 20. Hereinafter, the height of the solid fuel stacked in the storage unit 20 is referred to as the "solid fuel level." A different type of solid fuel than the solid fuel previously stored therein can be supplied to the storage unit 20. As a result, different types of solid fuel are stacked in the storage unit 20. When solid fuel is supplied to the storage unit 20, the level of the solid fuel increases. The stored solid fuel is removed from the other end 20B of the storage unit 20. The other end of the storage unit 20 is connected to the supply device 30. When solid fuel is removed from the storage unit 20, the level of the solid fuel decreases.If no solid fuel is supplied to the storage unit 20 or no solid fuel is removed from the storage unit 20, the level of the solid fuel does not change.

[0019] The feed device 30 supplies the solid fuel stored in the storage unit 20 to the combustion device 40. The feed device 30 comprises a transport device 31 and a pulverizing device 32.

[0020] The transport device 31 receives the solid fuel from the other end 20B of the storage unit 20 and supplies the solid fuel to the pulverizer 32. The transport device 31 is, for example, a gravimetric coal feeder. The transport device 31 detects the weight of the solid fuel using a load cell, etc. The transport device 31 transports a predetermined amount of solid fuel using a conveyor belt, etc., and delivers the solid fuel to the pulverizer 32.

[0021] The pulverizer 32 dries and crushes the solid fuel. The pulverizer 32 is, for example, a pulverizer for coal. An air inlet or an inlet of the pulverizer 32 is supplied with gas, e.g., hot air. The pulverizer 32 dries the solid fuel using the supplied gas. The pulverizer 32 pulverizes the dried solid fuel. The dried and pulverized solid fuel is blown by the supplied gas and conveyed to an exhaust outlet or an outlet of the pulverizer 32. The pulverizer 32 supplies the solid fuel to a combustion device 40 using the supplied gas.

[0022] During the drying and pulverizing process of the pulverizer 32, the properties and condition of the solid fuel affect the temperature of the gas in the pulverizer 32. For example, the humidity, etc., of the solid fuel fluctuates depending on the quality of the solid fuel, the season, or the weather, etc. In the pulverizer 32, the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer 32 is controlled so as to suppress fluctuation in the gas temperature at the outlet or outlet of the pulverizer 32.

[0023] Combustion device 40 combusts supplied solid fuel. Combustion device 40 is, for example, a boiler that combusts the solid fuel to generate steam. Combustion device 40 supplies the steam to power generation device 50. Exhaust gas is generated in combustion device 40 through the combustion of the solid fuel. Combustion device 40 forwards the exhaust gas to gas processing unit 60.

[0024] The power generation device 50 generates electrical energy using steam. For example, the power generation device 50 generates electrical energy using the rotational energy of the steam turbine that absorbs the steam.

[0025] The gas processing unit 60 processes the exhaust gas. The gas processing unit 60 processes the exhaust gas, for example, with a flue gas denitrification device, a dust collector, a flue gas desulfurization device, etc. The exhaust gas is discharged into the atmosphere via a chimney.

[0026] The first measuring device 70 measures the level of the solid fuels stored in the storage unit 20. The first measuring device 70 is, for example, an interface measuring device. The first measuring device 70 transmits the measured level of the solid fuels to the prediction device 10.

[0027] The second measuring device 80 measures the temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device 30. More specifically, the second measuring device 80 measures the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer 32 at the air inlet of the pulverizer 32. The second measuring device 80 is, for example, a thermometer. The second measuring device 80 transmits the measured gas temperature to the prediction device 10.

[0028] The third measuring device 90 measures the concentration of a chemical substance produced during the combustion of solid fuel. The third measuring device 90 is, for example, a concentration measuring device. The third measuring device 90 measures, for example, the concentration of a chemical substance in the exhaust gas exiting the stack of the gas processing unit 60. Examples of the chemical substance include sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and carbon monoxide (CO). The third measuring device 90 transmits the measured concentration of the chemical substance to the prediction device 10.

[0029] The prediction device 10 predicts a change or switching time for types of solid fuels supplied from the storage unit 20 via the supply device 30 to the combustion device 40. The type and configuration of the prediction device 10 are not limited. The prediction device 10 can be, for example, a personal computer, a high-function mobile phone (smartphone), a tablet device, or a portable device. The prediction device 10 includes, as functional elements, a reference unit 11, a determination unit 12, a prediction unit 13, and an output unit 14.

[0030] The reference unit 11 obtains the level of the solid fuels stored in the storage unit 20. For example, the reference unit 11 obtains the level of the solid fuels from the first measuring device 70. The reference unit 11 obtains a temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device 30. For example, the reference unit 11 obtains the temperature of the gas from the second measuring device 80. The reference unit 11 obtains the concentration of a chemical substance produced during the combustion of the solid fuels. For example, the reference unit 11 obtains the concentration of the chemical substance from the third measuring device 90.

[0031] The determination unit 12 determines a threshold value related to the level of solid fuels. In this embodiment, when the level of solid fuels decreases and reaches the threshold value, it is determined that the types of solid fuels supplied to the combustion device 40 are switched. The determination unit 12 determines the threshold value based on the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of solid fuels, the gas temperature, and the concentration of the chemical substance. The determination unit 12 can store the predetermined threshold value in a predetermined storage unit.

[0032] The prediction unit 13 predicts the switching time for the types of solid fuels. For example, the prediction unit 13 predicts, as the switching time, a time in the future at which the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent decrease in the level of the solid fuels reaches the threshold value.

[0033] The output unit 14 outputs the changeover time. The output unit 14 displays the changeover time, for example, on the display device of the prediction device 10 or on an external display device.

[0034] An example of the processing of the determination unit 12 will be explained with reference to the Fig. 2 to 4. In the Fig. 2 to 4, the prediction system 1 is described as having a plurality of units A, B, C, D, E, and F, each of which includes the storage unit 20 and the feed device 30. Each of the plurality of units A, B, C, D, E, and F includes a bunker as the storage unit 20. Each of the plurality of units A, B, C, D, E, and F includes a coal grinding plant as the pulverizing device 32.

[0035] Fig. Figure 2 is a graph illustrating an example of a time-dependent change in the level of solid fuels. In Fig. 2, a horizontal axis represents the time, and a vertical axis the level or level [%] of the solid fuels in the storage unit 20. "BNKR-A LVL" indicates the level of solid fuels in a bunker of unit A. "BNKR-B LVL" indicates the level of solid fuels in a bunker of unit B. "BNKR-C LVL" indicates the level of solid fuels in a bunker of unit C. "BNKR-D LVL" indicates the level of solid fuels in a bunker of unit D. "BNKR-E LVL" indicates the level of solid fuels in a bunker of unit E. "BNKR-F LVL" indicates the level of solid fuels in a bunker of unit F. FIGURE 2 illustrates a level L obtained by extrapolating a decrease in the level of solid fuels in the bunker of unit D.

[0036] Fig. Figure 3 is a graph illustrating an example of a time-dependent temperature change of a gas. In Fig. 3, a horizontal axis represents time and a vertical axis represents temperature [°C]. "MILL-A PA TEMP" indicates the temperature of the gas supplied to a pulverizer of unit A. "MILL-B PA TEMP" indicates the temperature of the gas supplied to a pulverizer of unit B. "MILL-C PA TEMP" indicates the temperature of the gas supplied to a pulverizer of unit C. "MILL-D PA TEMP" indicates the temperature of the gas supplied to a pulverizer of unit D. "MILL-E PA TEMP" indicates the temperature of the gas supplied to a pulverizer of unit E. "MILL-F PA TEMP" indicates the temperature of the gas supplied to a pulverizer of unit F.

[0037] Fig. Figure 4 is a graph illustrating an example of the time-dependent change in the concentration of a chemical substance. In Fig. 4 the horizontal axis represents the time and the vertical axis the concentration [mg / Nm 3 ]. Fig. Figure 4 illustrates the time-dependent change in the concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO2) as an example for SOx, NOx, and CO. "STCK SO2" indicates the concentration of SO2. "STCK NOx" indicates the concentration of NOx. "STCK CO" indicates the CO concentration.

[0038] In one example, the detection unit 12 determines a time at which a trend for a temperature of the gas changes. For example, the detection unit 12 determines a time at which the time-dependent change in the gas temperature changes from a constant to an increasing trend or a decreasing trend. Before Fig. At the time t illustrated in Figure 3, the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer of unit D is approximately constant. After time t, the temperature of the gas supplied to the pulverizer of unit D enters a decreasing trend. The detection unit 12 determines the time t at which the time-dependent change trend of the gas temperature for unit D changes. For example, the determination unit 12 may detect the time t based on the degree of fluctuation of the gas temperature within a predetermined period, etc.

[0039] The determination unit 12 may determine the threshold value based on time t when the gas temperature trend changes and the level is obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels. For example, the determination unit 12 may determine an extrapolated level as the threshold value at time t. For example, an extrapolated level L1 at time t reaches a level of 30%, as shown in Fig. 2. The determination unit 12 determines the level of 30% as the threshold value T.

[0040] As another example, the determination unit 12 determines a time point at which a trend in the concentration of the chemical substance changes. For example, the detection unit 12 determines a time point at which the time-dependent change in the concentration of the chemical substance changes from a constant to an increasing trend or a decreasing trend. Before Fig. At the time t illustrated in Figure 4, the SO2 concentration is approximately constant. After time t, the SO2 concentration begins to increase. The determination unit 12 determines the time t at which a time-dependent change in the SO2 concentration begins. For example, the determination unit 12 may detect the time t based on the degree of fluctuation in the SO2 concentration within a predetermined period.

[0041] The determination unit 12 may determine a threshold value based on the time t at which the tendency of the concentration of the chemical substance changes and the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels. For example, the determination unit 12 may determine an extrapolated level as the threshold value at time t. For example, an extrapolated level L1 at time t reaches a level of 30%, as shown in Fig. 2. The determination unit 12 determines the level of 30% as the threshold value T.

[0042] The determination unit 12 may detect the time t based on both the gas temperature trend and the chemical substance concentration trend. For example, the detection unit 12 may determine the time t when the time-dependent change in gas temperature and the time-dependent change in chemical substance concentration change from constants to increasing trends or decreasing trends. The determination unit 12 may determine a threshold value based on the detected time t when the gas temperature trend and the chemical substance concentration trend change, and the level is obtained by extrapolating a decrease in the level of the solid fuels. The determination unit 12 may calculate an extrapolated level for each unit. The threshold value T may be different for each unit.

[0043] An example of the processing of the prediction unit 13 and the output unit 14 will be described with reference to Fig. 5 described. Fig. 5 illustrates an example of a screen displaying the time-dependent change in a level of solid fuels and a switching time. The output unit 14 displays a screen P, for example, on the display device of the prediction device 10 or on the external display device. The screen P includes information provided to a user or an operator of the prediction system 1, etc. On the screen P, for example, a level P1, a current time P2, a graph P3, a final addition time P4, and a switching time P5 are displayed.

[0044] The level P1 is a field that displays the current level [%] of solid fuels. The current time P2 is a field that displays the current time. "Jan 11, 2023 10:20:00" is displayed in the current time P2. The graph P3 is a graph that shows the time-dependent change in the level of solid fuels. In the graph P3, a horizontal axis represents the time and a vertical axis represents the level [%] of solid fuels in the storage unit 20. The final addition time P4 is a field that displays the time at which the solid fuels are added to the storage unit 20. "Jan 10, 18:58" is displayed in the final addition time P4. The changeover time P5 is a field that displays a predicted time. "Jan 1, 14:24" is displayed in the changeover time P5.

[0045] The prediction unit 13 calculates a level L2 obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of solid fuels using a level of solid fuels after the final addition time P4. For example, the prediction unit 13 calculates the extrapolated level L2 using the decrease in the level of solid fuels after "Jan 10, 18:58." The extrapolated level L2 may or may not be displayed on the screen P. The prediction unit 13 predicts a time in the future at which the extrapolated level L2 reaches the threshold T as the switching time. The prediction unit 13 predicts the time in the future at which the extrapolated level L2 and a threshold T2 intersect as the switching time.

[0046] An example of a method for operating the prediction device 10 will be described with reference to Fig. 6 described. Fig. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of an operation for predicting the predicting device 10.

[0047] In step S1, the prediction device 10 obtains various types of data necessary for predicting a switching time. For example, the reference unit 11 obtains a solid fuel level from the first measuring device 70. The reference unit 11 obtains a gas temperature from the second measuring device 80. The reference unit 11 obtains the concentration of a chemical substance from the third measuring device 90.

[0048] If no threshold value related to the solid fuel level was determined in step S2 (step S2: NO), the method proceeds to step S3. If the threshold value related to the solid fuel level was determined (step S2: YES), the method proceeds to step S4. For example, the prediction device 10 may make the determination in step S2 depending on whether a predetermined threshold value is stored in a predetermined storage device.

[0049] In step S3, the prediction device 10 determines the threshold value. For example, the determination unit 12 may determine the threshold value based on a time point at which the time-dependent change in a gas temperature turns into an increasing trend or a decreasing trend, and the level of the solid fuels. The determination unit 12 may determine the threshold value based on a time point at which the time-dependent change in the concentration of a chemical substance turns into an increasing trend or a decreasing trend, and the level of the solid fuels. The determination unit 12 may determine the threshold value based on a time point at which the time-dependent change in the gas temperature and the time-dependent change in the concentration of the chemical substance turn into an increasing trend or a decreasing trend, and the level of the solid fuels.

[0050] In step S4, the prediction device 10 predicts a switching time for types of solid fuels. For example, the prediction unit 13 predicts, as the switching time, a time in the future at which the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels reaches the threshold value. In one example, the prediction unit 13 predicts, as the switching time, a time in the future at which the extrapolated level L2 illustrated in Fig. 5, the threshold T is reached.

[0051] In step S5, the prediction device 10 outputs the switching time. For example, the output unit 14 displays the switching time on the display device of the prediction device 10 or on the external display device. In one example, the output unit 14 displays the screen P that displays the Fig. 5, on the display device. The display of the screen P can prompt the user or operator of the prediction system 1 to take appropriate action. For example, the operator can focus on monitoring the operating conditions of the combustion device 40 before and after the changeover time. The operator can change the control of the combustion device 40 before and after the changeover time. [Hardware configuration]

[0052] Fig. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration related to the prediction system 1. Fig.Fig. 7 illustrates a computer 100 functioning as a prediction device 10. The computer 100 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 101, a main memory 102, an auxiliary memory 103, a communication controller 104, an input device 105, and an output device 106. The prediction device 10 includes one or a plurality of computers 100, each of which includes these pieces of hardware and software, such as a program.

[0053] If the prediction device 10 comprises a plurality of computers 100, these computers 100 may be connected locally or via a communications network such as the Internet or an intranet. Logically, this connection forms a prediction device 10.

[0054] The CPU 101 executes an operating system, an application program, etc. The main memory 102 includes a ROM (Read Only Memory) and a RAM (Random Access Memory). The auxiliary memory 103 is a storage medium including a hard disk, a flash memory, etc. The auxiliary memory 103 generally stores a larger amount of data than the main memory 102. The communication controller 104 includes a network card or a wireless communication module. At least part of a communication function with other devices in the prediction device 10 can be realized by the communication controller 104. The input device 105 includes a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, a microphone for voice input, etc. The output device 106 includes a display, a printer, etc.

[0055] The auxiliary memory 103 prestores a program 110 (prediction program) and data necessary for processing. The program 110 causes the computer 100 to execute each functional element of the prediction device 10. For example, the program 110 causes processing related to the above-described prediction method to be executed in the computer 100. For example, the program 110 is loaded from the CPU 101 or the main memory 102 and causes operation of at least one of the CPU 101, the main memory 102, the auxiliary memory 103, the communication controller 104, the input device 105, and the output device 106. For example, the program 110 reads and writes data in the main memory 102 and the auxiliary memory 103.

[0056] For example, the program 110 may be provided after recording on a tangible storage medium such as a CD-ROM, a DVD-ROM, or a semiconductor memory. The program 110 may be provided as a data signal over a communications network.

[0057] As described above, according to one aspect of the disclosure, the prediction device 10 predicts a switching timing for types of solid fuels supplied from the storage unit 20 to the combustion device 40 via the supply device 30. The prediction device 10 includes the acquisition unit 11 that acquires a level of solid fuels stored in the storage unit 20, and the prediction unit 13 that predicts, as the switching timing, a time in the future at which a level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels reaches a threshold value.

[0058] In the prediction device 10, the switching timing of the solid fuel types is predicted based on the level obtained by extrapolating the decrease in the solid fuel level and the threshold value. At this time, solid fuel is supplied and discharged in the storage unit 20, so that the solid fuel level fluctuates. In the prediction device 10 of the disclosure, the solid fuel level is supplemented by the level obtained by extrapolating the decrease in the solid fuel level. In this way, for example, it is possible to predict the rate of decrease in the solid fuel level even when different types of solid fuel are introduced into the storage unit 20. This improves the prediction accuracy of the switching timing.

[0059] The reference unit 11 obtains a temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device 30. The prediction device 10 further includes the determination unit 12, which determines a threshold value based on a time point at which a trend for the temperature of the gas changes and the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels. According to such a configuration, in determining the threshold value, a relationship between the change in the trend of the gas temperature and the level obtained by extrapolating the decrease in the level of the solid fuels is reflected. In this way, the accuracy of the threshold value for specifying the time point is improved. This improves the prediction accuracy of the switching time point.

[0060] The reference unit 11 obtains the concentration of a chemical substance generated during the combustion of solid fuel. The prediction device 10 further includes the determination unit 12, which determines a threshold value based on a time point at which a trend in the concentration of the chemical substance changes and the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels. According to such a configuration, the determination of the threshold value reflects a relationship between the change in the trend in the concentration of the chemical substance and the level obtained by extrapolating the decrease in the level of the solid fuels. Thus, the accuracy of the threshold value for specifying the time point of the change is improved.Thereby, the timing of switching the types of solid fuels supplied to the combustion device 40 can be predicted with high accuracy.

[0061] The prediction device 10 further includes the output unit 14, which displays the switching time on the display device. This improves the convenience of the user, operator, etc., when using the switching time.

[0062] The acquisition unit 11 acquires the level of solid fuels for each of the plurality of units, each of which includes the storage unit 20 and the supply device 30. The prediction unit 13 predicts, as the switching timing, a time in the future at which the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of solid fuels reaches a threshold value for each of the plurality of units. According to such a configuration, the switching timing is predicted for each of the plurality of units. In this way, it is possible to improve the prediction accuracy of the switching timing in the plurality of units. Furthermore, the cost of monitoring the plurality of units can be reduced. [Modified example]

[0063] The disclosure is not necessarily limited to the embodiments described above, and various modifications are possible without departing from the gist of the disclosure.

[0064] When comparing the magnitude of two numerical values, one of the two criteria "greater than or equal to" and "greater than" or one of the two criteria "less than or equal to" and "less than" can be used. [Supplementary note]

[0065] The disclosure is a technology for predicting the timing of switching the types of solid fuels supplied to the combustion device, and when this technology is employed, the combustion device can be operated more efficiently. Therefore, the disclosure contributes to the following objectives of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

[0066] Goal 7: “Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.”

[0067] A brief summary of the disclosure is provided below. [1] A prediction device for predicting a switching time for types of solid fuels supplied from a storage unit to a combustion device via a supply device, the prediction device comprising: a reference unit configured to obtain a level of the solid fuels stored in the storage unit; and a prediction unit configured to predict, as the switching time, a time in the future at which a level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels reaches a threshold value. [2] The prediction device according to [1], wherein the reference unit refers to a temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device, and the prediction device further comprises a determination unit configured to determine a threshold value based on a time point at which a tendency for the temperature of the gas and the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels changes. [3] The prediction device according to [1] or [2], wherein the reference unit refers to a concentration of a chemical substance produced by combustion of the solid fuels, and the prediction device further comprises a determination unit configured to determine a threshold value based on a time point at which a tendency for the concentration of the chemical substance changes and the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels. [4] The prediction device according to [1] to [3], further comprising an output unit configured to display the changeover time on a display device. [5] The prediction device according to any one of items [1] to [4], wherein the reference unit obtains the level of solid fuels for each of a plurality of units each comprising the storage unit and the supply device, and the prediction unit predicts, as the switching time, a time in the future at which the level obtained by extrapolating a time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels reaches the threshold value for each of the plurality of units. List of reference symbols

[0068] 1: Prediction system, 10: Prediction device, 11: Reference unit, 12: Determination unit, 13: Prediction unit, 14: Discharge unit, 20: Storage unit, 21: Pipe section, 22: Tapered section, 30: Feeding device, 31: Transportation device, 32: Pulverizer, 40: Combustion device, 50: Energy generation device, 60: Gas processing unit, 70: First measuring device, 80: Second measuring device, 90: Third measuring device, 20A: One end, 20B: Other end, P: Screen, T: Threshold, L1 and L2: Level, P1: Level, P2: Time point, P3: Graph, P4: Final addition time point, P5: Switching time point. QUOTES CONTAINED IN THE DESCRIPTION

[0000] This list of documents submitted by the applicant was generated automatically and is included solely for the convenience of the reader. This list is not part of the German patent or utility model application. The DPMA assumes no liability for any errors or omissions. Cited patent literature

[0000] JP 2015-25582

[0003]

Claims

[1] A prediction device for predicting a switching time for types of solid fuels supplied from a storage unit to a combustion device via a supply device, the prediction device comprising: a reference unit configured to obtain a level of the solid fuels stored in the storage unit; and a prediction unit configured to predict, as the switching time, a time in the future at which a level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels reaches a threshold value. [2] A prediction device according to claim 1, wherein: the reference unit refers to a temperature of the gas supplied to the supply device, and the prediction device further comprises a determination unit configured to determine a threshold value based on a time point at which a tendency for the temperature of the gas and the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels changes. [3] A prediction device according to claim 1, wherein: the reference unit refers to a concentration of a chemical substance produced by combustion of the solid fuels, and the prediction device further comprises a determination unit configured to determine a threshold value based on a time point at which a tendency for the concentration of the chemical substance changes and the level obtained by extrapolating the time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels. [4] The prediction device according to claim 1, further comprising an output unit configured to display the switching timing on a display device. [5] A prediction device according to claim 1, wherein: the reference unit obtains the level of solid fuels for each of a plurality of units each comprising the storage unit and the supply device, and the prediction unit predicts, as the switching time, a time in the future at which the level obtained by extrapolating a time-dependent change in the decrease in the level of the solid fuels reaches the threshold value for each of the plurality of units.

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