Information processing device, drive assisting method and program

Abstract

To estimate the activity of a catalyst which is used in a catalyst reaction device in a circulating manner.SOLUTION: An information processing device 10 comprises: an acquisition unit 12 for acquiring operation data 28 including respective time series values of multiple parameters which indicate an operation state of a catalyst reaction device; and a calculation unit 14 which uses the operation data 28 to calculate an estimated value related to the activity of the catalyst being used in the catalyst reaction device. The catalyst reaction device comprises: a reactor for causing raw oil and the catalyst to react; and a circulation path for returning the catalyst discharged from the reactor to the reactor. The multiple parameters include: at least one parameter related to the raw oil; at least one parameter related to the temperature of the reactor; and at least one parameter related to the amount of discharge of the catalyst which is partially discharged from the circulation path or the amount of input of new catalyst input to the circulation path.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 4

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to an information processing device, a driving assistance method, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] In plants such as oil refineries, catalytic reaction equipment is used to pass feedstock oil through a catalyst to obtain a product oil. For example, an alkylation unit, which is a type of catalytic reaction unit, uses sulfuric acid as a catalyst to react with a hydrocarbon feedstock, which is a feedstock oil, to produce an alkylate, which is a product oil. The sulfuric acid used as a catalyst is, for example, circulated within the unit for use (see Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] JP 2005-272684 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] It is known that the catalyst circulating in a catalytic reaction device deteriorates with use. In order to maintain the activity of the circulating catalyst, it is necessary to discharge a part of the deteriorated catalyst and introduce a new catalyst. From the viewpoint of economically operating a catalytic reaction device, it is preferable to minimize the amount of catalyst replacement while maintaining the catalyst activity at or above a predetermined reference value. However, since it is difficult to accurately measure the catalyst activity in real time, the reference value must be set taking into account a margin value according to the frequency and accuracy of measuring the catalyst activity. In this case, it is necessary to increase the amount of catalyst replacement by the margin value, which leads to an increase in operating costs.

[0005] One exemplary object of an embodiment of the present disclosure is to provide techniques for estimating the activity of a catalyst that is circulated in a catalytic reactor. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] An information processing device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure includes an acquisition unit that acquires operation data including time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters indicating an operating state of a catalytic reaction device, and a calculation unit that uses the operation data to calculate an estimated value for the activity of a catalyst used in the catalytic reaction device. The catalytic reaction device includes a reactor that reacts a feedstock oil and a catalyst, and a circulation path for returning the catalyst discharged from the reactor to the reactor. The plurality of parameters include at least one parameter related to the feedstock oil, at least one parameter related to the temperature of the reactor, and at least one parameter related to the amount of catalyst discharged partially from the circulation path or the amount of new catalyst input to the circulation path.

[0007] Another aspect of the present disclosure is an operation assistance method. The method includes the steps of acquiring operation data including time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters indicative of an operating state of a catalytic reactor, and calculating an estimated value for the activity of a catalyst used in the catalytic reactor using the operation data. The catalytic reactor includes a reactor for reacting a feedstock oil and a catalyst, and a circulation path for returning the catalyst discharged from the reactor to the reactor. The plurality of parameters include at least one parameter related to the feedstock oil, at least one parameter related to the temperature of the reactor, and at least one parameter related to the amount of catalyst discharged partially from the circulation path or the amount of new catalyst input to the circulation path.

[0008] Yet another aspect of the present disclosure is a program. The program includes a function of acquiring operation data including time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters indicating the operating state of a catalytic reactor, and a function of calculating an estimated value of the activity of a catalyst used in the catalytic reactor using the operation data. The catalytic reactor includes a reactor for reacting a feedstock oil and a catalyst, and a circulation path for returning the catalyst discharged from the reactor to the reactor. The plurality of parameters include at least one parameter related to the feedstock oil, at least one parameter related to the temperature of the reactor, and at least one parameter related to the amount of catalyst discharged partially from the circulation path or the amount of new catalyst inputted into the circulation path. Effect of the Invention

[0009] According to the present disclosure, it is possible to estimate the activity of a catalyst that is circulated in a catalytic reaction device. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0010] [Figure 1] 1 is a diagram showing an example of a schematic configuration of a catalytic reaction device according to an embodiment; [Diagram 2] 1 is a diagram showing an example of a schematic configuration of a catalytic reaction device according to an embodiment; [Diagram 3] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a schematic configuration of an alkylation apparatus according to an embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a schematic configuration of an information processing device according to an embodiment. [Diagram 5] 4 is a graph showing a schematic example of a time series value of a first parameter and a plurality of operating periods. [Figure 6] 11 is a graph showing an example of test values ​​obtained at different times and correction values ​​calculated from the test values. [Figure 7] 4 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a driving assistance method according to an embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0011] The outline of the present disclosure will be described. The present disclosure relates to a technology for estimating the activity of a catalyst circulated in a catalytic reaction device. The catalyst circulated in a catalytic reaction device deteriorates with use, so it is necessary to discharge a part of the circulating catalyst and charge a new catalyst. When a part of the deteriorated catalyst is discharged and a new catalyst is charged, the deteriorated catalyst and the new catalyst are mixed, and the activity of the catalyst after mixing increases compared to the activity of the catalyst before mixing. For example, if the activity of the catalyst discharged from the catalytic reaction device can be measured in real time, the amount of new catalyst charged can be appropriately adjusted so that the measured value of the catalyst activity matches a predetermined reference value, and the amount of catalyst charged can be reduced to the minimum necessary. However, in order to measure the activity of the catalyst with high accuracy, it is necessary to sample the catalyst and test it with an analysis device installed in a laboratory, etc., and it may take time to obtain the test results. In addition, it is possible to measure the activity of the catalyst in real time using a sensor attached to the catalytic reaction device, but sufficient measurement accuracy is often not obtained. As a result, it is necessary to set a reference value that takes into account a margin value according to the frequency and accuracy of measuring the activity of the catalyst, and the amount of catalyst charged must be increased compared to when the reference value is set to the limit.

[0012] In the present disclosure, an estimated value for the activity of a catalyst being used in a catalytic reactor is calculated using operation data including time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters indicating the operating state of the catalytic reactor. As the plurality of parameters, at least one parameter related to the feed oil, at least one parameter related to the temperature of the reactor, and at least one parameter related to the amount of catalyst discharged partially from the circulation path or the amount of new catalyst introduced into the circulation path are used. According to the present disclosure, by taking into account the time series values ​​of the plurality of parameters, the activity of the catalyst circulating in the catalytic reactor can be accurately estimated. As a result, it becomes possible to use an estimated value for the activity of the catalyst calculated with high accuracy in real time, and it is possible to reduce the amount of new catalyst introduced to maintain the activity of the catalyst at or above a reference value. This makes it possible to operate the catalytic reactor more economically.

[0013] The subject of the information processing device or method in the present disclosure includes a computer. The computer executes a computer program to realize the functions of the subject of the information processing device or method in the present disclosure. The computer includes a processor that operates according to a computer program as a main hardware configuration. The type of processor is not important as long as the function can be realized by executing the computer program. The processor is composed of one or more electronic circuits including a semiconductor integrated circuit (IC, LSI, etc.). The computer program is recorded on a non-transitory recording medium such as a computer-readable ROM, an optical disk, or a hard disk drive. The computer program may be stored in advance on the recording medium, or may be supplied to the recording medium via a wide area communication network including the Internet.

[0014] The technology of the present disclosure will be described below with reference to the drawings based on preferred embodiments. The embodiments are illustrative and do not limit the invention, and all features and combinations thereof described in the embodiments are not necessarily essential to the invention. The same or equivalent components, members, and processes shown in each drawing are given the same reference numerals, and duplicated descriptions are omitted as appropriate. In addition, the scale and shape of each part shown in each drawing are set for convenience to facilitate explanation, and are not to be interpreted as being limiting unless otherwise specified. In addition, when terms such as "first" and "second" are used in this specification or claims, they do not represent any order or importance, but are intended to distinguish one configuration from another, unless otherwise specified.

[0015] 1 is a diagram showing an example of a schematic configuration of a catalytic reaction device 50 according to an embodiment. The catalytic reaction device 50 includes a reactor 52 and a circulation path 54.

[0016] The reactor 52 is a reaction vessel in which the feedstock oil 56 is reacted with the catalyst 66 to produce a product oil 58. The feedstock oil 56 and the catalyst 66 enter the reactor 52, and the product oil 58 and the catalyst 68 exit the reactor 52. Inside the reaction vessel, the feedstock oil 56 and the catalyst 66 are mixed, and the reaction proceeds as the feedstock oil 56 comes into contact with the catalyst 66. The reactor 52 may include multiple reaction vessels connected in series or in parallel. The reactor 52 may include a separation vessel for separating the product oil 58 and the catalyst 68 after the reaction. The reactor 52 may include multiple separation vessels connected in series or in parallel.

[0017] The circulation path 54 is a path for returning at least a portion of the catalyst 68 discharged from the reactor 52 to the reactor 52 as a catalyst 66. The circulation path 54 is provided with a discharge path 60 for discharging a portion of the catalyst 68 discharged from the reactor 52, and an input path 62 for inputting new catalyst into the circulation path 54. The discharge path 60 and the input path 62 may be separate paths or may be a common path. In the latter case, the circulation path 54 may be provided with one branch path that functions as both the discharge path 60 and the input path 62.

[0018] The catalyst 66 entering the reactor 52 through the circulation path 54 may include, for example, the catalyst 68 exiting the reactor 52 and new catalyst introduced through the input path 62. By discharging a part of the catalyst 68 that has been used and deteriorated in the reactor 52 and introducing new catalyst, the activity of the catalyst 66 entering the reactor 52 can be maintained at a predetermined reference value or higher. For example, by matching the amount of catalyst discharged from the discharge path 60 with the amount of catalyst introduced through the input path 62, the amount of catalyst passing through the reactor 52 and the circulation path 54 can be maintained constant. Note that the amount of catalyst discharged from the discharge path 60 does not necessarily have to match the amount of catalyst introduced through the input path 62, and the amount of catalyst passing through the reactor 52 and the circulation path 54 may vary within a range in which the catalytic reaction device 50 can continue to operate normally. In other words, as long as a state in which a predetermined amount or more of catalyst required for normal operation of the catalytic reaction device 50 is able to pass through the reactor 52 and the circulation path 54 is maintained, a short-term difference between the amount of catalyst discharged from the discharge path 60 and the amount of catalyst input from the input path 62 is acceptable.

[0019] 2 is a diagram showing an example of a schematic configuration of a catalytic reaction device 50A according to an embodiment. The catalytic reaction device 50A in FIG. 2 differs from the catalytic reaction device 50 in FIG.

[0020] The catalyst regenerator 64 is provided, for example, in the middle of the circulation path 54. The catalyst regenerator 64 is a device that regenerates the catalyst 68 used in the reactor 52 and increases the activity of the catalyst compared to before regeneration. The catalyst regenerator 64 can be provided, for example, between the discharge path 60 and the input path 62. The discharge path 60 and the input path 62 may be provided in the catalyst regenerator 64. Even when the catalyst regenerator 64 is used, deterioration may accumulate due to circulating the catalyst while regenerating it, so it is necessary to discharge a part of the catalyst from the discharge path 60 and input new catalyst from the input path 62.

[0021] The catalytic reactors 50, 50A can be used as, for example, alkylation units. The alkylation unit reacts light olefins with light isoparaffins to synthesize hyperbranched isoparaffins that serve as high-octane gasoline base stocks. In the case of an alkylation unit, the feedstock 56 contains olefin base stocks such as normal butene and isoparaffin base stocks such as isobutane. The product oil 58 contains hyperbranched paraffins such as isooctane. The product oil 58 may contain unreacted base stocks, and may contain a portion of the olefin base stocks and isoparaffin base stocks contained in the feedstock 56. The catalysts 66, 68 are liquid acids such as high-concentration sulfuric acid and hydrofluoric acid. The activity of the catalysts 66, 68 can be expressed by the concentration of the liquid acid. For example, when sulfuric acid is used as the catalysts 66, 68, the reference value of the concentration of the catalyst 68 discharged from the reactor 52 can be set to 90 wt%, and the catalytic reactor 50 is operated so that the concentration of the catalyst 68 is 90 wt% or more. When using the catalytic reactor 50A of FIG. 2, the catalyst regenerator 64 operates to remove impurities contained in the catalyst 68 exiting the reactor 52 and to enrich the liquid acid.

[0022] The catalytic reaction apparatus 50, 50A may be used as a catalytic cracker or a catalytic reformer. In the case of a catalytic cracker, the feedstock oil 56 is, for example, a straight-run base oil obtained from an atmospheric distillation apparatus or a vacuum distillation apparatus, and for example, a light oil fraction or a heavy oil fraction can be used. In the case of a catalytic reformer, the feedstock oil 56 may be a straight-run base oil or a cracked base oil obtained from a catalytic cracker, and a straight-run or cracked naphtha fraction, kerosene fraction, or light oil fraction can be used. The catalysts 66, 68 are, for example, particulate solid catalysts having fluidity. The type and material of the catalysts 66, 68 are not particularly limited as long as they are fixed catalysts for a catalytic cracker or a catalytic reformer, and for example, zeolites carrying catalytic metals such as platinum group elements and rare earth elements can be used. When using the catalytic reactor 50A of FIG. 2, the catalyst regenerator 64 operates to increase the activity of the catalyst by removing impurities such as coke that adhere to the catalyst 68 exiting the reactor 52 and restoring the surface area of ​​the catalyst.

[0023] The operating state of the catalytic reaction apparatus 50, 50A is represented by the values ​​of a plurality of parameters. The parameters indicating the operating state may include, for example, at least one of a parameter related to the feed oil 56, a parameter related to the temperature of the reactor 52, and a parameter related to the amount of catalyst discharged or charged in the circulation path 54. The values ​​of the parameters indicating the operating state are measured in real time, for example, at intervals of 1 to 5 minutes, by a sensor or the like provided in the catalytic reaction apparatus 50, 50A.

[0024] The parameters related to the feed oil 56 may include, for example, the type, supply amount, concentration, and blending ratio of the base oil contained in the feed oil 56. The parameters related to the temperature of the reactor 52 may include the internal temperature of the reaction vessel equipped in the reactor 52, the temperature of the feed oil 56 entering the reactor 52, and the temperature of the refined oil 58 exiting from the reactor 52. The parameters related to the discharge or input amount of the catalyst in the circulation line 54 may include at least one of the discharge amount of the catalyst 68 discharged from the circulation line 54 and the input amount of new catalyst input to the circulation line 54.

[0025] Fig. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a schematic configuration of an alkylation unit 70 according to an embodiment. The alkylation unit 70 includes, for example, the catalytic reaction unit 50 shown in Fig. 1 and devices connected to the catalytic reaction unit 50. The alkylation unit 70 includes a contactor 72, a settler 74, a suction trap 76, and a fractionation tower 78.

[0026] The contactor 72 and the settler 74 correspond to the reactor 52 shown in FIG. 1. The contactor 72 is a reaction vessel into which the feedstock oil 56 and the catalyst 66 are put. Inside the contactor 72, the feedstock oil 56 and the catalyst 66 come into contact with each other, and a reaction proceeds to produce the product oil 58. The settler 74 is a separation vessel, and separates the catalyst 68 from the mixture of the product oil 58 and the catalyst 68 sent from the contactor 72. At least a part of the catalyst 68 separated in the settler 74 is returned to the contactor 72 as the catalyst 66. The first path 54a from the contactor 72 to the settler 74 and the second path 54b from the settler 74 to the contactor 72 constitute a circulation path 54 for circulating the catalyst between the contactor 72 and the settler 74.

[0027] The catalyst used in the alkylation unit 70 is, for example, sulfuric acid. The discharge amount and input amount are adjusted so that the concentration of sulfuric acid in the circulation line 54 is maintained at, for example, 90 wt% or more. The concentration of sulfuric acid as a catalyst discharged from the circulation line 54 via the discharge line 60 is, for example, 90 wt%. The concentration of new sulfuric acid as a catalyst input to the circulation line 54 via the input line 62 is, for example, 98 wt%. The reference value of the catalyst concentration adjusted in the circulation line 54 of the alkylation unit 70 (or the catalytic reaction unit 50, 50A) can be set appropriately depending on the type of catalyst, the operating conditions of the alkylation unit 70, and the like. The concentration of the new catalyst input to the circulation line 54 via the input line 62 can also be adjusted appropriately depending on the type of catalyst, the reference value of the catalyst concentration in the circulation line 54, the operating conditions of the alkylation unit 70 (or the catalytic reaction unit 50, 50A), and the like.

[0028] The product oil 58 separated in the settler 74 is passed through the refrigerant pipe 72a of the contactor 72 and is used as a refrigerant for removing the heat of reaction generated in the contactor 72. The product oil 58 that has passed through the refrigerant pipe 72a of the contactor 72 is sent to a suction trap 76. In the suction trap 76, a gas component 80 (e.g., propane) contained in the product oil 58 is separated, and the remaining liquid component 82 is sent to a fractionation tower 78. The gas component 80 originates from the unreacted feed oil 56 that did not react in the contactor 72.

[0029] The fractionator 78 fractionates the liquid component 82 sent from the suction trap 76, and outputs normal butane 84 and alkylate 86. The overhead component 88, which is the remainder of the distillation of normal butane 84 and alkylate 86, is used as the feedstock 56. The fractionator 78 receives a saturated C4 fraction 90 used as the feedstock 56. The saturated C4 fraction 90 is a C4 fraction obtained from, for example, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and is mainly composed of isobutane (iC4) and normal butane (nC4). The overhead component 88 includes propane (C3), isobutane (iC4), and normal butane (nC4).

[0030] The feedstock 56 includes a catalytic cracking C4 fraction 92 obtained from the catalytic cracking unit in addition to the overhead component 88 discharged from the fractionator 78. The catalytic cracking C4 fraction 92 includes, for example, propane (C3), propylene (C3=), isobutane (iC4), normal butane (nC4), butene (C4=), and butadiene (C4==). The feedstock 56, which is a mixture of the overhead component 88 and the catalytic cracking C4 fraction 92, includes propylene (C3=), butene (C4=), and butadiene (C4==) as olefin base oils, and includes isobutane (iC4) as isoparaffin base oil.

[0031] The parameters related to the feedstock 56 in the alkylation unit 70 can include, for example, the type, supply amount, concentration, blending ratio, etc. of the base oil contained in the feedstock 56. The parameters related to the feedstock 56 in the alkylation unit 70 can include, for example, the type, supply amount, concentration, blending ratio, etc. of the base oil contained in the top component 88 of the fractionation tower 78, and the type, supply amount, concentration, blending ratio, etc. of the base oil contained in the catalytic cracking C4 fraction 92. The parameters related to the temperature in the alkylation unit 70 can include the temperature of the contactor 72 and the temperature of the suction trap 76. The parameters related to the discharge or input amount of the catalyst in the circulation path 54 of the alkylation unit 70 can include at least one of the discharge amount of the catalyst 68 discharged through the discharge path 60 and the input amount of new catalyst input through the input path 62.

[0032] 4 is a diagram showing a schematic functional configuration of the information processing device 10 according to the embodiment. The information processing device 10 is connected to a data management device 42, a plant management device 44, and a user terminal 46 via a network 40.

[0033] Each of the information processing device 10, the data management device 42, the plant management device 44, and the user terminal 46 is a general-purpose computer such as a server, a workstation, or a personal computer, or a mobile terminal such as a smartphone or a tablet computer. As an example, the information processing device 10, the data management device 42, and the plant management device 44 are servers. As an example, the user terminal 46 is a personal computer.

[0034] Each block shown in the block diagram of the present disclosure can be realized in terms of hardware by elements and mechanical devices, such as a processor such as a computer's CPU (Central Processing Unit) and memories such as a ROM (Read Only Memory) and a RAM (Random Access Memory), and in terms of software by a computer program, etc. Here, functional blocks realized by cooperation between hardware and software are depicted. Those skilled in the art will understand that these functional blocks can be realized in various ways by combinations of hardware and software.

[0035] A computer program implementing the functions of at least some of the functional blocks shown in Fig. 4 may be installed in the storage of one or more computers. The CPU of one or more computers may load the computer program installed in the computer into a main memory and execute the program to exercise the functions of the functional blocks shown in Fig. 4.

[0036] Furthermore, the functions of the multiple functional blocks shown in Fig. 4 may be executed by one computer, or may be distributed and executed by multiple computers. When the functions of the multiple functional blocks shown in Fig. 4 are distributed and executed by multiple computers, the multiple computers may transmit and receive data via a communication network including a LAN (Local Area Network), a WAN (Wide Area Network), and the Internet.

[0037] The network 40 is configured with a communication network including, for example, a local area network (LAN), a wide area network (WAN), the Internet, and various mobile communication systems constructed by wireless base stations. Examples of the mobile communication system include mobile communication systems such as 3G, 4G, and 5G, LTE (Long Term Evolution), and wireless networks (for example, Wi-Fi (registered trademark)) that can be connected to the Internet via a predetermined access point.

[0038] The data management device 42 acquires and manages data used in the information processing device 10. The data management device 42 is, for example, a data server that collects and accumulates various data related to the plant. The data management device 42 acquires necessary data from, for example, the plant management device 44 or a user terminal 46.

[0039] The plant management device 44 acquires and manages data from the plant equipment 48. The plant equipment 48 is a group of equipment consisting of a plurality of devices installed in a plant. The plant equipment 48 includes, for example, the catalytic reaction equipment 50, 50A or the alkylation equipment 70, and includes a sensor for acquiring parameter values ​​indicating the operating state of the catalytic reaction equipment 50, 50A or the alkylation equipment 70. The type of sensor included in the plant equipment 48 is not particularly limited, and may be, for example, a pressure sensor, a temperature sensor, a flow rate sensor, or a concentration sensor. The plant management device 44 acquires measured values ​​measured by the sensor included in the plant equipment 48.

[0040] The user terminal 46 is used by a user or an operator who manages the plant. The user terminal 46 displays an input screen for inputting data to be used in the information processing device 10. The data input to the user terminal 46 is transmitted to, for example, the data management device 42 and managed by the data management device 42. For example, an inspection value relating to the activity of the catalyst sampled from the circulation path 54 of the catalytic reaction device 50, 50A or the alkylation device 70 is input to the user terminal 46. When the catalyst is a liquid acid such as sulfuric acid or hydrofluoric acid, an inspection value of the concentration of the liquid acid sampled from the circulation path 54 is input to the user terminal 46. The user terminal 46 displays information output from the information processing device 10.

[0041] The information processing device 10 includes an acquisition unit 12, a calculation unit 14, a determination unit 16, an output unit 18, and a storage unit 20. The calculation unit 14 may include an average value calculation unit 22, a correction value calculation unit 24, and an estimation unit 26. The storage unit 20 may include operation data 28, inspection value data 30, average value data 32, correction value data 34, model data 36, ​​and operation schedule data 38.

[0042] The acquisition unit 12 acquires values ​​of a plurality of parameters indicating the operating state of the catalytic reaction apparatus 50, 50A or the alkylation apparatus 70. The plurality of parameters include parameters measured by sensors provided in the catalytic reaction apparatus 50, 50A or the alkylation apparatus 70. The types of parameters that can be measured by the sensors are not particularly limited, and may be, for example, pressure, temperature, flow rate, concentration, and throughput.

[0043] The parameter value acquired by the acquisition unit 12 may be a sensor measurement value itself, or may be a calculated value calculated from measurements by one or more sensors. The acquisition unit 12 may acquire measurements by one or more sensors, and calculate at least one parameter value using the acquired measurements. The acquisition unit 12 may acquire, for example, a first measurement value by a first sensor of the plant equipment 48 and a second measurement value by a second sensor of the plant equipment 48, and calculate a ratio between the first measurement value and the second measurement value as the parameter value. The acquisition unit 12 acquires the parameter value in association with the acquisition date and time. The acquisition date and time may be the date and time when the measurement is made by a sensor provided in the plant equipment 48, or the date and time when the data management device 42 or the plant management device 44 acquires the parameter value.

[0044] The acquisition unit 12 stores the acquired parameter values ​​in the storage unit 20 as operating data 28. The operating data 28 includes time series values ​​of the parameters. The time series values ​​of the parameters include the parameter values ​​and the acquisition dates and times of the parameters. The acquisition unit 12 accumulates the acquired parameter values ​​in the storage unit 20 to generate operating data 28 consisting of time series values ​​of the parameters from the past to the present. The time series values ​​of the parameters recorded as the operating data 28 are acquired at a relatively short time period (for example, every minute, every four minutes, every ten minutes, or every thirty minutes).

[0045] The acquiring unit 12 further acquires an inspection value indicating an inspection result regarding the activity of the catalyst sampled from the circulation path 54. The acquiring unit 12 acquires, for example, an inspection value input to the user terminal 46 and managed by the data management device 42. The acquiring unit 12 acquires the inspection value in association with an acquisition date and time. The acquisition date and time may be the date and time when the catalyst is sampled from the circulation path 54, the date and time when the catalyst is inspected, or the date and time when the inspection value is input to the user terminal 46. The time series values ​​of the inspection result recorded as the inspection value data 30 are acquired at a relatively long time period (for example, every day, every two days, or every week). The time series values ​​of the inspection result do not have to be acquired periodically, and may be acquired irregularly. That is, the sampling inspection of the catalyst may be performed periodically or irregularly.

[0046] The calculation unit 14 uses the operation data 28 to calculate an estimate of the activity of the catalyst in use in the catalytic reaction device 50, 50A. Here, the activity of the catalyst means the performance of the catalyst in the reaction to produce the product oil 58 from the raw oil 56, and can be quantitatively expressed, for example, by the reaction rate per surface area or weight of the catalyst. For example, the calculation unit 14 can calculate the reaction rate k of the catalyst in use based on the reaction rate k0 of the unused catalyst, that is, k / k0, as an estimate of the activity of the catalyst. When the catalyst is a liquid acid such as sulfuric acid or hydrofluoric acid, the reaction rate of the catalyst is determined according to the concentration of the liquid acid. In this case, the calculation unit 14 can calculate the concentration of the liquid acid in use as an estimate of the activity of the catalyst.

[0047] The calculation unit 14 may use the model data 36 stored in the storage unit 20 to calculate an estimated value regarding the activity of the catalyst in use from the operation data 28. The model data 36 is, for example, a correlation model that receives time series values ​​of multiple parameters included in the operation data 28 as input and outputs an estimated value regarding the activity of the catalyst. The model data 36 can be generated by machine learning using teacher data that receives time series values ​​of multiple parameters included in the operation data 28 as input and outputs an inspection value indicating an inspection result regarding the activity of the catalyst. At least one of linear regression, support vector machine, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network can be used as the machine learning algorithm.

[0048] The calculation unit 14 may calculate the estimated value using the average value of the parameter in a predetermined operation period, instead of using the time series value of the parameter included in the operation data 28 as it is. Here, the predetermined operation period can be determined according to the residence time of the catalyst circulating in the circulation path 54, and can be a period equivalent to the residence time or a period shorter than the residence time. An example of the predetermined operation period is 12 hours or more and 120 hours or less. The average value calculation unit 22 calculates the average value of the parameter in the predetermined operation period from the time series value of the parameter included in the operation data 28, and stores it in the storage unit 20 as average value data 32. The predetermined operation period is set as a period going back from a reference date and time at which the estimated value is calculated. The reference date and time can be, for example, the current date and time. The average value calculation unit 22 can calculate the average value when the acquisition unit 12 acquires the latest value of the parameter, and update the average value data 32 stored in the storage unit 20.

[0049] The average value calculation unit 22 may calculate a plurality of average values ​​corresponding to a plurality of operating periods for a specific parameter. The plurality of operating periods have in common that they are periods going back from a reference date and time (for example, the current date and time), but the lengths of the operating periods are different from each other. For example, the average value calculation unit 22 calculates a first average value of the first parameter in a first operating period and a second average value of the first parameter in a second operating period longer than the first operating period from the time series value of the first parameter included in the operating data 28. The average value calculation unit 22 may further calculate a third average value of the first parameter in a third operating period longer than the second operating period from the time series value of the first parameter included in the operating data 28.

[0050] FIG. 5 is a graph showing an example of the time series value of the first parameter and a plurality of operating periods. The vertical axis of the graph indicates the magnitude of the value of the first parameter, and the horizontal axis of the graph indicates the elapsed time. Time t0 is a reference date and time, for example, the current date and time. Time t1 is a date and time that goes back from the reference date and time by the first operating period T1. Time t2 is a date and time that goes back from the reference date and time by the second operating period T2. Time t3 is a date and time that goes back from the reference date and time by the third operating period T3. The lengths of the plurality of operating periods T1 to T3 are not particularly limited, but for example, the first operating period T1 is 24 hours, the second operating period T2 is 72 hours, and the third operating period T3 is 96 hours. The second operating period T2 overlaps with the first operating period T1 between time t1 and time t0. The third operating period T3 overlaps with the first operating period T1 between time t1 and time t0, and overlaps with the second operating period T2 between time t2 and time t0.

[0051] The first average value P1 is the average of the time series values ​​of the first parameter in the first operating period T1 from time t1 to time t0. The second average value P2 is the average of the time series values ​​of the first parameter in the second operating period T2 from time t2 to time t0. The third average value P3 is the average of the time series values ​​of the first parameter in the third operating period T3 from time t3 to time t0. The multiple average values ​​P1 to P3 may be different values ​​because the operating periods T1 to T3 to be averaged are different. For example, the first average value P1 represents the short-term contribution of the first parameter, the second average value P2 represents the medium-term contribution of the first parameter, and the third average value P3 represents the long-term contribution of the first parameter. The terms short-term, medium-term, and long-term are relative terms, and can be, for example, short, about the same, and long with respect to the residence time of the catalyst.

[0052] The average value calculation unit 22 can calculate one or more average values ​​for each of the multiple parameters included in the operation data 28. The average value calculation unit 22 can calculate multiple average values ​​for each of the multiple parameters included in the operation data 28. The lengths of the multiple operation periods in which the multiple average values ​​are calculated for each of the multiple parameters may be common to each other, may be different from each other, or may be partially common to each other and the rest may be different. The number of average values ​​calculated for a specific parameter may be one, two, or three or more. The number of average values ​​calculated for each of the multiple parameters may be common to each other, may be different from each other, or may be partially common to each other and the rest may be different. For example, an average value of the first operation period T1 and the second operation period T2 may be calculated for the first parameter, and an average value of the first operation period T1 and the second operation period T2 may be calculated for the second parameter. For example, an average value of the first operation period T1 and the second operation period T2 may be calculated for the first parameter, and an average value of the third operation period T3 may be calculated for the second parameter. For example, an average value of the first parameter over the first operating period T1 and the second operating period T2 may be calculated, and an average value of the second parameter over the first operating period T1 and the third operating period T3 may be calculated.

[0053] The calculation unit 14 may further use the test value data 30 stored in the memory unit 20 to calculate an estimate regarding the activity of the catalyst in use. For example, the calculation unit 14 may further use a test value acquired at a past date and time close to the reference date and time for calculating the estimate, among the test value data 30 stored in the memory unit 20. By referring to the test value immediately before the reference date and time, it is possible to prevent the estimated value from deviating significantly from the actually measured test value, thereby improving the estimation accuracy.

[0054] The calculation unit 14 may calculate an estimated value using a correction value of the test result that has been corrected so as to smooth the time change of the test value, rather than using the test value contained in the test value data 30 as is. Since the interval between test value acquisition is relatively long, when a new test value is acquired, it deviates from the previous test value, making it appear as if the test value has changed suddenly. When the test value changes suddenly, the estimated value calculated using the test value also changes suddenly, and there is a possibility that it will deviate from the actual value. When a new test value is acquired, the correction value calculation unit 24 calculates a correction value that changes over time so as to approach the new test value from the previous test value.

[0055] FIG. 6 is a graph showing an example of test values ​​acquired at different times and correction values ​​calculated from the test values. In the graph of FIG. 6, test values ​​Q4, Q5, and Q6 acquired at different times t4, t5, and t6 are plotted. When the test values ​​are used as they are without correction, the time series values ​​Qa of the test results have a rectangular wave shape as represented by the dashed line, and the value jumps at the times t4, t5, and t6 when new test values ​​are acquired. On the other hand, the correction value Qb of the test results represented by the solid line does not jump at the times t4, t5, and t6 when new test values ​​are acquired, and changes smoothly over time from the previous test value to the new test value. The correction value Qb can be calculated by smoothing using, for example, a first-order lag process. The correction value Qb may be calculated by a moving average of the time series values ​​Qa represented by the dashed line. The correction value Qb calculated by the correction value calculation unit 24 can be stored in the storage unit 20 as correction value data 34.

[0056] The estimation unit 26 can calculate an estimate using the average value data 32 calculated by the average value calculation unit 22 and the model data 36. The estimation unit 26 can calculate an estimate output from a model based on the model data 36 by inputting the average value data 32 to the model. The estimation unit 26 may further use the correction value data 34 calculated by the correction value calculation unit 24 to calculate an estimate. The estimation unit 26 may further input the correction value data 34 to a model based on the model data 36 to calculate an estimate output from the model.

[0057] The number of the multiple average values ​​input to the model is, for example, 5 or more, 10 or more, or 15 or more, and, for example, 30 or less, 25 or less, or 20 or less. The number of the multiple average values ​​input to the model is preferably 10 or more and 20 or less. Here, the number of average values ​​input to the model corresponds to the number of combinations of multiple parameters and at least one operating period used for averaging. The combinations of the multiple average values ​​input to the model can be selected in order of contribution or importance in machine learning when generating the model.

[0058] In the case of the alkylation unit 70, the multiple parameters can include, for example, the respective concentrations of isobutane (iC4) and normal butane (nC4) contained in the overhead component 88, the respective concentrations of isobutane (iC4), normal butane (nC4), butene (C4=), and butadiene (C4==) contained in the catalytic cracked C4 fraction 92, the amount of catalytic cracked C4 fraction 92 fed, the temperature of the contactor 72, the temperature of the suction trap 76, the amount of catalyst discharged from the circulation path 54, or the amount of catalyst fed to the circulation path 54.

[0059] In the case of the alkylation unit 70, the operation period for averaging each of the multiple parameters can be set to, for example, one or more of 12 hours, 24 hours, 36 hours, 48 ​​hours, 60 hours, 72 hours, 84 hours, 96 hours, or 108 hours. When averaging a specific parameter over two or more operation periods, it is preferable to select a combination of a relatively short operation period (e.g., 12 to 36 hours), a relatively long operation period (e.g., 84 to 108 hours), and an intermediate operation period (e.g., 48 to 72 hours).

[0060] According to one example of a model constructed for the alkylation unit 70, by using 14 average values ​​and test values ​​or corrected test results as inputs, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the estimated value of the sulfuric acid concentration output from the model was 0.6 wt%.

[0061] The determination unit 16 determines at least one of the discharge amount or input amount of the catalyst in the circulation path 54 based on the estimated value calculated by the calculation unit 14. For example, when the estimated value reaches a reference value, the determination unit 16 determines the discharge amount or input amount of the catalyst so that the activity of the catalyst is restored to a recommended value higher than the reference value. For example, when the catalyst is sulfuric acid, the reference value can be 90 wt%, and the recommended value can be 91 wt%. The recommended value can be adjusted as appropriate depending on the type of catalyst, the type of catalytic reaction device 50, the operating conditions of the catalytic reaction device 50, and the like.

[0062] The determination unit 16 may determine at least one of the amount of catalyst discharged or input in the circulation path 54, further based on the change over time of the estimated value calculated by the calculation unit 14. For example, when the rate of decline of the estimated value is large and it is estimated that the activity of the catalyst is rapidly declining, the amount of catalyst discharged or input in the circulation path 54 may be increased so that the recovery rate of the catalyst activity is increased. On the other hand, when the rate of decline of the estimated value is small, the amount of catalyst discharged or input in the circulation path 54 may be decreased so that the catalyst is used economically.

[0063] The determination unit 16 may further use the operation schedule data 38 stored in the storage unit 20 to determine at least one of the discharge amount or input amount of the catalyst in the circulation path 54. The operation schedule data 38 is data indicating the future operation state of the catalytic reaction device 50, 50A or the alkylation device 70. The operation schedule data 38 can be acquired by the acquisition unit 12 from the data management device 42, the plant management device 44, or the user terminal 46. For example, when a high-load operation in which the catalyst is likely to deteriorate is scheduled, the determination unit 16 may increase the discharge amount or input amount of the catalyst so that the recovery speed of the catalyst activity is increased. For example, when a low-load operation in which the catalyst is unlikely to deteriorate is scheduled, the determination unit 16 may decrease the discharge amount or input amount of the catalyst so that the catalyst is used economically.

[0064] The output unit 18 outputs the estimated value calculated by the calculation unit 14 and the catalyst input or discharge amount determined by the determination unit 16. The output unit 18 may output data for displaying the estimated value, the input amount, or the discharge amount on the user terminal 46. The output unit 18 may output the catalyst input or discharge amount to the plant management device 44 or the plant device 48, and control the catalyst input or discharge amount in the catalytic reaction device 50, 50A or the alkylation device 70.

[0065] When the estimated value calculated by the calculation unit 14 is less than the threshold value, the output unit 18 may output an alert to the user terminal 46 or the like. Here, the threshold value may be the same as the above-mentioned reference value, or a value slightly smaller than the reference value. For example, when the catalyst is sulfuric acid, the threshold value may be 90 wt%, the same as the reference value, or 89.5 wt%, smaller than the reference value. Note that the threshold value can be appropriately adjusted depending on the type of catalyst, the type of catalytic reaction device 50, the operating conditions of the catalytic reaction device 50, and the like.

[0066] FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing an example of a driving assistance method according to an embodiment. The acquisition unit 12 acquires time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters indicating the operating state of the catalytic reaction device 50, 50A (S10). The average value calculation unit 22 calculates a plurality of average values ​​of the plurality of parameters from the time series values ​​of the plurality of parameters (S12). If a new inspection value indicating the inspection result regarding the activity of the catalyst is acquired (Y of S14), the correction value calculation unit 24 calculates a correction value of the inspection result that changes over time from the previous inspection value to the new inspection value (S16). If a new inspection value indicating the inspection result regarding the activity of the catalyst is not acquired (N of S14), the process of S16 can be skipped. The estimation unit 26 calculates an estimate value regarding the activity of the catalyst being used in the catalytic reaction device 50, 50A using the plurality of average values ​​calculated by the average value calculation unit 22 and the inspection value or the correction value of the inspection result (S18). The output unit 18 outputs the calculated estimate value (S20).

[0067] The calculation process of the correction value in S16 may be performed regardless of whether or not a new test value is acquired in S14. For example, the current correction value can be calculated using the most recent test value and the previous correction value. The most recent test value can be updated when a new test value is acquired. In this case, the current correction value is calculated so as to approach the most recent test value from the previous correction value. For example, if a sufficient amount of time (e.g., 12 hours or 24 hours) has passed without the most recent test value being updated, the correction value will be approximately equal to the most recent test value and can be considered to be equivalent to the most recent test value.

[0068] According to this embodiment, it is possible to calculate an estimated value of the activity of the catalyst being used in the catalytic reaction device 50, 50A in real time with high accuracy. In particular, by considering the time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters, it is possible to estimate the state of the catalyst with high accuracy by taking into account the time series influence over the residence time of the catalyst in the circulation path 54.

[0069] According to this embodiment, instead of using the time series values ​​of multiple parameters as they are, the number of variables input to the model can be limited by using average values ​​in a predetermined operating period. As a result, even when using teacher data with a limited amount of data, a model with higher estimation accuracy can be prepared compared to the case where a large number of parameter values ​​constituting the time series values ​​are input to the model. In addition, by using multiple average values ​​corresponding to multiple operating periods, for example, an average value representing a short-term contribution and an average value representing a long-term contribution of a specific parameter can be input to the model. As a result, while limiting the number of variables input to the model, the influence of the time series can be more appropriately reflected in the model, and the state of the catalyst can be estimated with high accuracy.

[0070] According to this embodiment, the state of the catalyst can be estimated with higher accuracy by further using an inspection value indicating the inspection result regarding the activity of the catalyst. Moreover, when a new inspection value is acquired, instead of switching the inspection value to be referred to immediately after acquisition, a correction value that changes over time from the previous inspection value to the new inspection value is used, thereby preventing a sudden change in the estimated value and allowing a more appropriate estimated value to be calculated.

[0071] The present disclosure has been described above based on the embodiments. These embodiments are merely examples, and it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various modifications are possible in the combination of each component or each treatment process, and that such modifications are also within the scope of the present disclosure.

[0072] Parameters or values ​​in this disclosure may be expressed as absolute values, as relative values ​​from a given value, or as corresponding other information.

[0073] The embodiment may be a program for making a computer realize the functions for implementing the above-mentioned method, or a recording medium for storing the program. The recording medium for storing such a program may be a non-transitory and tangible computer-readable storage medium, and may be a non-volatile memory, a magnetic recording medium such as a magnetic tape or a magnetic disk, or an optical recording medium such as an optical disk.

[0074] Several aspects of the present disclosure are described below.

[0075] The first aspect is an information processing device comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires operation data including time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters indicating the operating state of a catalytic reaction device; and a calculation unit that uses the operation data to calculate an estimated value for the activity of a catalyst being used in the catalytic reaction device, the catalytic reaction device comprising a reactor that reacts a feedstock oil and a catalyst, and a circulation path for returning the catalyst discharged from the reactor to the reactor, the plurality of parameters including at least one parameter related to the feedstock oil, at least one parameter related to the temperature of the reactor, and at least one parameter related to the amount of catalyst discharged partially from the circulation path or the amount of new catalyst input into the circulation path. According to the first aspect, the activity of the catalyst circulated and used in the circulation path can be estimated with high accuracy by using the time series values ​​of the plurality of parameters indicating the operating state of the catalytic reaction device.

[0076] In a second aspect, the information processing device according to the first aspect is configured such that the calculation unit calculates an average value of at least one parameter included in the operation data for a predetermined operation period from a time series value of the at least one parameter, and calculates the estimated value using the average value. According to the second aspect, by using the average value for the predetermined operation period, the number of input variables used to estimate the activity of the catalyst can be limited, and the activity of the catalyst can be estimated with high accuracy even when the number of pieces of operation data is limited.

[0077] A third aspect is the information processing device according to the first or second aspect, in which the calculation unit calculates a first average value of the first parameter in a first operating period and a second average value of the first parameter in a second operating period longer than the first operating period from the time series value of the first parameter included in the operating data, and calculates the estimated value using the first average value and the second average value. According to the third aspect, by calculating and using the first average value and the second average value for the first parameter, which are different operating periods to be averaged, it is possible to reflect the influence of the time series of the first parameter while limiting the number of input variables. As a result, it is possible to estimate the activity of the catalyst with high accuracy.

[0078] A fourth aspect is the information processing device according to the third aspect, in which the calculation unit further calculates a third average value for a third operating period of the first parameter, which is longer than the second operating period, from the time series value of the first parameter included in the operating data, and further uses the third average value to calculate the estimated value. According to the fourth aspect, by further using the third average value for a long operating period to be averaged for the first parameter, it is possible to reflect the long-term influence of the time series of the first parameter. As a result, it is possible to estimate the activity of the catalyst with high accuracy.

[0079] A fifth aspect is the information processing device according to the third or fourth aspect, in which the calculation unit further calculates an average value of the second parameter in the first operating period or the second operating period from the time series value of the second parameter included in the operating data, and further uses the average value to calculate the estimated value. According to the fifth aspect, by using an average value of the second parameter averaged over the same operating period as the first parameter, it is possible to reflect the influence of the time series of the second parameter while limiting the number of input variables. As a result, it is possible to estimate the activity of the catalyst with high accuracy.

[0080] A sixth aspect is the information processing device according to any one of the third to fifth aspects, in which the calculation unit further calculates an average value of the second parameter in a third operating period, the third operating period being different in length from each of the first operating period and the second operating period, from the time series value of the second parameter included in the operating data, and further uses the average value to calculate the estimated value. According to the sixth aspect, by using an average value of the second parameter averaged over an operating period different from that of the first parameter, it is possible to reflect the influence of the time series of the second parameter while limiting the number of input variables. As a result, it is possible to estimate the activity of the catalyst with high accuracy.

[0081] A seventh aspect is the information processing device according to any one of the first to sixth aspects, in which the calculation unit calculates a first average value of a first parameter in a first operating period from a time series value of the first parameter included in the operating data, calculates a second average value of the second parameter in a second operating period longer than the first operating period from a time series value of a second parameter different from the first parameter included in the operating data, and calculates the estimated value using the first average value and the second average value. According to the seventh aspect, by using an average value averaged over different operating periods depending on the parameter, it is possible to reflect the influence of the time series of multiple parameters while limiting the number of input variables. As a result, it is possible to estimate the activity of the catalyst with high accuracy.

[0082] An eighth aspect is the information processing device according to the seventh aspect, in which the calculation unit calculates a third average value for a third operating period longer than the second operating period of the third parameter from a time series value of the third parameter different from the first parameter and the second parameter included in the operating data, and further calculates the estimated value by using the third average value. According to the eighth aspect, by using an average value averaged over different operating periods depending on the parameter, it is possible to reflect the influence of the time series of multiple parameters while limiting the number of input variables. As a result, it is possible to estimate the activity of the catalyst with high accuracy.

[0083] A ninth aspect is the information processing device according to any one of the third to eighth aspects, wherein the second operating period is set to overlap with the first operating period. According to the ninth aspect, by overlapping the operating periods, it is possible to reflect the influence of time series of different periods up to a reference date and time for estimating the activity of the catalyst. As a result, it is possible to estimate the activity of the catalyst with high accuracy.

[0084] A tenth aspect is the information processing device according to the fourth, sixth or eighth aspect, in which the third operating period is set to overlap with each of the first operating period and the second operating period. According to the tenth aspect, by overlapping the operating periods, it is possible to reflect the influence of time series of different periods up to the reference date and time for estimating the activity of the catalyst. As a result, it is possible to estimate the activity of the catalyst with high accuracy.

[0085] An eleventh aspect is the information processing device according to any one of the first to tenth aspects, wherein the acquisition unit further acquires an inspection value indicating an inspection result related to catalyst activity sampled from the circulation path, and the calculation unit further uses the inspection value to calculate the estimated value. According to the eleventh aspect, by further using the inspection value indicating the inspection result related to catalyst activity, the activity of the catalyst can be estimated with high accuracy.

[0086] A twelfth aspect is the information processing device according to the eleventh aspect, in which, when the acquisition unit acquires a new test value, the calculation unit calculates a correction value of the test result that changes over time from a previous test value to a new test value, and calculates the estimated value using the correction value. According to the twelfth aspect, it is possible to suppress a sudden change in the test value used to estimate the activity of the catalyst, and to suppress a sudden change in the estimated value. As a result, it is possible to more appropriately estimate the activity of the catalyst.

[0087] A thirteenth aspect is the information processing device according to any one of the third to twelfth aspects, wherein the acquisition unit further acquires an inspection value indicating an inspection result relating to the activity of the catalyst sampled from the circulation path, the calculation unit further uses the inspection value to calculate the estimated value, and at least one of the first operating period and the second operating period is a period after a date and time at which the inspection value is acquired. According to the thirteenth aspect, since it is possible to reflect the influence of a time series of parameters in a period after a date and time at which the inspection value is acquired, it is possible to estimate the activity of the catalyst after the inspection value is acquired with high accuracy.

[0088] A fourteenth aspect is the information processing device according to any one of the third to thirteenth aspects, wherein the acquisition unit further acquires an inspection value indicating an inspection result relating to the activity of the catalyst sampled from the circulation path, the calculation unit further uses the inspection value to calculate the estimated value, and at least one of the first operating period and the second operating period is a period including a period before and after the date and time of acquisition of the inspection value. According to the fourteenth aspect, since it is possible to reflect the influence of the time series of the parameters in the period before and after the date and time of acquisition of the inspection value, it is possible to estimate the activity of the catalyst after acquisition of the inspection value with high accuracy.

[0089] A fifteenth aspect is the information processing device according to any one of the first to fourteenth aspects, further comprising an output unit that outputs an alert when the estimated value is less than a predetermined threshold. According to the fifteenth aspect, the alert is output based on the estimated value, which improves user convenience.

[0090] A sixteenth aspect is the information processing device according to any one of the first to fifteenth aspects, further comprising a determination unit that determines at least one of an amount of catalyst discharged or an amount of catalyst input in the circulation path based on the estimated value. According to the sixteenth aspect, since the amount of catalyst discharged or the amount of catalyst input is determined based on the estimated value, it is possible to control the activity of the catalyst so as to maintain it in a desired state, thereby improving user convenience.

[0091] A seventeenth aspect is the information processing device according to the sixteenth aspect, in which the acquisition unit further acquires operation schedule data indicating an operation schedule of the catalytic reaction device, and the determination unit further uses the operation schedule data to determine at least one of the discharge amount or input amount of the catalyst in the circulation path. According to the seventeenth aspect, since the discharge amount or input amount of the catalyst is determined further taking into consideration the operation schedule data, it is possible to more appropriately control the catalyst so that its activity is maintained in a desired state, and it is possible to improve user convenience.

[0092] An eighteenth aspect is the information processing device according to any one of the first to seventeenth aspects, wherein the catalytic reaction apparatus is an alkylation apparatus that uses sulfuric acid or hydrofluoric acid as the catalyst, and the estimated value regarding the activity of the catalyst includes an estimated value of the concentration of sulfuric acid or hydrofluoric acid. According to the eighteenth aspect, the concentration of sulfuric acid or hydrofluoric acid recycled as a catalyst in the alkylation apparatus can be estimated with high accuracy.

[0093] A nineteenth aspect is an operation support method comprising the steps of: acquiring operation data including time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters indicating the operating state of a catalytic reaction device; and calculating an estimated value of the activity of a catalyst being used in the catalytic reaction device using the operation data, the catalytic reaction device comprising a reactor for reacting a feedstock oil and a catalyst, and a circulation path for returning the catalyst discharged from the reactor to the reactor, the plurality of parameters including at least one parameter related to the feedstock oil, at least one parameter related to the temperature of the reactor, and at least one parameter related to the amount of catalyst discharged partially from the circulation path or the amount of new catalyst input into the circulation path. According to the nineteenth aspect, the activity of the catalyst circulated and used in the circulation path can be estimated with high accuracy by using the time series values ​​of the plurality of parameters indicating the operating state of the catalytic reaction device.

[0094] A twentieth aspect is a program for making a computer realize a function of acquiring operation data including time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters indicating the operating state of a catalytic reaction device, and a function of calculating an estimated value of the activity of a catalyst used in the catalytic reaction device using the operation data, the catalytic reaction device comprising a reactor for reacting a feedstock oil and a catalyst, and a circulation path for returning the catalyst discharged from the reactor to the reactor, the plurality of parameters including at least one parameter related to the feedstock oil, at least one parameter related to the temperature of the reactor, and at least one parameter related to the amount of catalyst discharged partially from the circulation path or the amount of new catalyst inputted into the circulation path. According to the twentieth aspect, the activity of the catalyst circulated and used in the circulation path can be estimated with high accuracy by using the time series values ​​of the plurality of parameters indicating the operating state of the catalytic reaction device.

[0095] Any combination of the configurations according to the above-mentioned embodiments or aspects is also useful as an embodiment of the present disclosure. A new embodiment resulting from the combination has the effects of each of the combined examples and modifications. In addition, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that the functions to be performed by each of the constituent elements described in the claims can be realized by each of the components shown in the examples and modifications alone or in cooperation with each other. [Explanation of symbols]

[0096] 10...information processing device, 12...acquisition unit, 14...calculation unit, 16...determination unit, 18...output unit, 22...average value calculation unit, 24...correction value calculation unit, 26...estimation unit, 28...operation data, 30...inspection value data, 32...average value data, 34...correction value data, 36...model data, 38...operation schedule data.

Claims

1. an acquisition unit that acquires operation data including time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters that indicate an operation state of the catalytic reaction device; a calculation unit that calculates an estimated value regarding the activity of a catalyst currently being used in the catalytic reaction device using the operating data; The catalytic reaction apparatus includes a reactor for reacting a feedstock oil and a catalyst, and a circulation path for returning the catalyst discharged from the reactor to the reactor; The plurality of parameters include at least one parameter related to the feedstock oil, at least one parameter related to the temperature of the reactor, and at least one parameter related to the amount of catalyst discharged partially from the circulation path or the amount of new catalyst input into the circulation path. Information processing device.

2. the calculation unit calculates an average value of at least one parameter during a predetermined operation period from a time series value of the at least one parameter included in the operation data, and calculates the estimated value using the average value; The information processing device according to claim 1 .

3. the calculation unit calculates a first average value of the first parameter in a first operating period and a second average value of the first parameter in a second operating period longer than the first operating period from a time series value of the first parameter included in the operating data, and calculates the estimated value using the first average value and the second average value. The information processing device according to claim 1 .

4. the calculation unit further calculates a third average value of the first parameter in a third operating period longer than the second operating period from the time series value of the first parameter included in the operating data, and calculates the estimated value by further using the third average value. The information processing device according to claim 3 .

5. the calculation unit further calculates an average value of the second parameter in the first operating period or the second operating period from a time series value of the second parameter included in the operating data, and calculates the estimated value by further using the average value. The information processing device according to claim 3 .

6. the calculation unit further calculates an average value of the second parameter in a third operating period, the third operating period having a different length from each of the first operating period and the second operating period, from the time series value of the second parameter included in the operating data, and further calculates the estimated value by using the average value. The information processing device according to claim 3 .

7. the calculation unit calculates a first average value of a first parameter in a first operating period from a time series value of the first parameter included in the operating data, calculates a second average value of the second parameter in a second operating period longer than the first operating period from a time series value of a second parameter different from the first parameter included in the operating data, and calculates the estimated value using the first average value and the second average value. The information processing device according to claim 1 .

8. the calculation unit calculates a third average value of the third parameter, which is different from the first parameter and the second parameter included in the operation data, during a third operation period that is longer than the second operation period, from a time series value of the third parameter, and calculates the estimated value by further using the third average value. The information processing device according to claim 7.

9. The second operating period is set to overlap with the first operating period. The information processing device according to claim 3 .

10. The third operating period is set so as to overlap with each of the first operating period and the second operating period.

9. The information processing device according to claim 4, 6 or 8.

11. The acquisition unit further acquires an inspection value indicating an inspection result regarding the activity of the catalyst sampled from the circulation path, The calculation unit further uses the inspection value to calculate the estimated value. The information processing device according to claim 1 .

12. When the acquisition unit acquires a new test value, the calculation unit calculates a correction value of the test result that changes over time from a previous test value to the new test value, and calculates the estimated value using the correction value. The information processing device according to claim 11.

13. The acquisition unit further acquires an inspection value indicating an inspection result regarding the activity of the catalyst sampled from the circulation path, The calculation unit further uses the inspection value to calculate the estimated value; At least one of the first operating period and the second operating period is a period after the acquisition date and time of the test value. The information processing device according to claim 3 .

14. The acquisition unit further acquires an inspection value indicating an inspection result regarding the activity of the catalyst sampled from the circulation path, The calculation unit further uses the inspection value to calculate the estimated value; At least one of the first operating period and the second operating period is a period including before and after the acquisition date and time of the test value. The information processing device according to claim 3 .

15. The information processing device according to claim 1 , further comprising an output unit that outputs an alert when the estimated value is less than a predetermined threshold value.

16. A determination unit that determines at least one of a discharge amount or a charge amount of the catalyst in the circulation path based on the estimated value. The information processing device according to claim 1 .

17. The acquisition unit further acquires operation schedule data indicating an operation schedule of the catalytic reaction device, The determination unit further uses the operation schedule data to determine at least one of a discharge amount or an input amount of the catalyst in the circulation path. The information processing device according to claim 16.

18. The catalytic reactor is an alkylation reactor using sulfuric acid or hydrofluoric acid as the catalyst, The estimate of the activity of the catalyst includes an estimate of the concentration of sulfuric acid or hydrofluoric acid; The information processing device according to claim 1 .

19. acquiring operational data including time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters indicating an operational state of a catalytic reaction device; and using the operational data to calculate an estimate of the activity of a catalyst in use in the catalytic reactor; The catalytic reaction apparatus includes a reactor for reacting a feedstock oil and a catalyst, and a circulation path for returning the catalyst discharged from the reactor to the reactor; The plurality of parameters include at least one parameter related to the feedstock oil, at least one parameter related to the temperature of the reactor, and at least one parameter related to the amount of catalyst discharged partially from the circulation path or the amount of new catalyst input into the circulation path. Driving assistance methods.

20. A function of acquiring operation data including time series values ​​of a plurality of parameters indicating an operating state of the catalytic reaction device; and a function of calculating an estimated value regarding the activity of the catalyst being used in the catalytic reaction device using the operating data, The catalytic reaction apparatus includes a reactor for reacting a feedstock oil and a catalyst, and a circulation path for returning the catalyst discharged from the reactor to the reactor; The plurality of parameters include at least one parameter related to the feedstock oil, at least one parameter related to the temperature of the reactor, and at least one parameter related to the amount of catalyst discharged partially from the circulation path or the amount of new catalyst input into the circulation path. program.

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