Power equipment management system, power equipment management method, and power equipment management program

Abstract

To create a facility update plan by selecting an update object facility on the basis of a viewpoint of cost effectiveness.SOLUTION: An aspect of the present disclosure includes an index transition calculation unit configured to calculate a transition of an index for avoiding a risk due to a power failure of each power facility, an index for avoiding a risk of disaster of each power facility, an index for avoiding a risk of business operation of each power facility, and an index due to reduction of a coping cost by updating each power facility, and a recommended timing calculation unit configured to calculate a recommended timing at which a total value of the index becomes maximum in a period satisfying a constraint condition for updating each power facility. A power facility management system includes a plan creation unit that selects one or a plurality of update target facilities from a plurality of power facilities on the basis of a recommended time of each power facility and creates a facility update plan including the selected update target facilities, and an information output unit that outputs information for displaying the facility update plan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 20

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a power equipment management system, a power equipment management method, and a power equipment management program. [Background technology]

[0002] In order to maintain a low-cost and stable power supply, power equipment management systems have traditionally been required to shift from TBM (Time-Based Maintenance) to RBM (Risk-Based Maintenance). For example, Patent Document 1 describes an equipment operation planning system that creates an equipment operation plan that takes into account the risk cost of the entire plant. The equipment operation planning system creates an equipment operation plan based on failure system information and an operation planning period for each piece of equipment. The equipment operation planning system determines the type of failure recovery model for each piece of equipment from reliability data, creates each failure recovery model that includes the degree of increase in failure rate and the degree of recovery by implementing maintenance items, creates multiple operation scenarios consisting of multiple combinations of maintenance items within the operation planning period, and calculates the risk cost of the entire plant in the event of a failure from the failure rate and impact data calculated from each operation scenario and the failure system information. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2005-85178 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] When the quality of work during power grid system inspections and patrols declines due to a decrease in the number of skilled engineers, it becomes difficult to accurately grasp the state of equipment deterioration, which could lead to disruptions in the power supply. In response, equipment operation planning systems are required to mechanize power grid system inspections and inspections and demand forecasts, predict and quantify the state of equipment deterioration, visualize the equipment status, predict the introduction of renewable energy, and develop optimal long-term equipment renewal plans for the entire power grid system. In this way, there is a need to improve the accuracy of demand forecasts and power supply disruption predictions while transforming risk management work in power grid system inspections and inspections, thereby maintaining a stable power supply at low cost. However, in the past, when calculating the risk and failure impact of power equipment and creating long-term equipment renewal plans, the risk to the power system was maintained, and when creating long-term equipment renewal plans, the priority of equipment to be renewed based on cost-effectiveness was not taken into consideration.

[0005] The present disclosure has been made in consideration of these circumstances, and aims to provide an electric power equipment management system, an electric power equipment management method, and an electric power equipment management program that can select equipment to be updated based on cost-effectiveness and create an equipment update plan. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] The present disclosure has been made to solve the above-mentioned problems, and one aspect of the present disclosure is an electric power equipment management system that manages a plurality of electric power equipment included in an electric power system, the electric power equipment management system including: an index trend calculation unit that calculates trends in an index for avoiding risks due to power outages for each electric power equipment, an index for avoiding risks due to disasters for each electric power equipment, an index for avoiding risks to business operations for each electric power equipment, and an index for reducing response costs by updating each electric power equipment; a recommended timing calculation unit that calculates a recommended timing at which the total value of the indexes calculated by the index trend calculation unit will be maximized during a period that satisfies constraints for updating each electric power equipment; a plan creation unit that selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the plurality of electric power equipment based on the recommended timings for each piece of power equipment calculated by the recommended timing calculation unit, and creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected equipment to be updated; an optimization unit that optimizes the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit based on constraints for the entire electric power system; and an information output unit that outputs information for displaying the equipment update plan optimized by the optimization unit.

[0007] Another aspect of the present disclosure is an electric power equipment management method for managing a plurality of electric power equipment included in an electric power system, the electric power equipment management system calculating trends in an index for avoiding risks due to power outages for each electric power equipment, an index for avoiding risks due to disasters for each electric power equipment, an index for avoiding risks to business operations for each electric power equipment, and an index for reducing response costs by updating each electric power equipment; a step of the electric power equipment management system calculating a recommended time when the total value of the indexes will be maximized within a period that satisfies constraints for updating each electric power equipment; a step of the electric power equipment management system selecting one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the plurality of electric power equipment based on the recommended time for each piece of electric power equipment and creating an equipment update plan that includes the selected pieces of equipment to be updated; a step of the electric power equipment management system optimizing the equipment to be updated for each year that is included in the equipment update plan based on constraints for the entire electric power system; and a step of the electric power equipment management system outputting information for displaying the optimized equipment update plan.

[0008] Another aspect of the present disclosure is a power equipment management program that causes a computer of an information processing device that manages a plurality of power equipment included in a power system to execute the following steps: calculating trends in an index for avoiding risks due to power outages for each power equipment, an index for avoiding risks from disasters for each power equipment, an index for avoiding risks to business operations for each power equipment, and an index for reducing response costs by updating each power equipment; calculating a recommended time when the total value of the indexes will be maximized within a period that satisfies constraints for updating each power equipment; selecting one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the plurality of power equipment based on the recommended time for each piece of power equipment and creating an equipment update plan that includes the selected pieces of equipment to be updated; optimizing the equipment to be updated for each year that is included in the equipment update plan based on constraints for the entire power system; and outputting information for displaying the optimized equipment update plan. [Effects of the Invention]

[0009] According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to refine risk management of a power grid system, optimize equipment to be updated in the power grid system, and create an equipment update plan. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0010] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100A according to a first embodiment. [Figure 2] 4 is a flowchart illustrating processing by a power equipment management system 100A according to the first embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the relationship between the future total risk value and the target risk value for a plurality of power facilities 210 in the first embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a total risk value for each year in the first embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of functions of a power equipment management system 100A according to the first embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the relationship between equipment risk and a reference value in the first embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a function for optimizing a long-term investment plan according to the first embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100B according to a second embodiment. [Figure 9] 10 is a diagram showing an example of input information and output information to a prediction unit 170 in the second embodiment. FIG. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of failure probability with respect to year in the second embodiment. [Figure 11] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of risk for each fiscal year in the second embodiment. [Figure 12] FIG. 10 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100C according to a third embodiment. [Figure 13] FIG. 10 is a system diagram showing an example of a power system 200 according to a third embodiment. [Figure 14] FIG. 13 is a block diagram for explaining another example of the first risk transition calculation unit 120C in the third embodiment. [Figure 15] 11 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure of a power equipment management system 100C according to the third embodiment. [Figure 16] 13 is a flowchart showing an example of a process for evaluating failure effect information in the third embodiment. [Figure 17] FIG. 10 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100D according to a fourth embodiment. [Figure 18] 10A and 10B are diagrams showing the relationship between the fiscal year and risk for each power facility 210 in the fourth embodiment, where (a) is a diagram showing the relationship between the fiscal year and risk when replacement or repair is not performed, (b) is a diagram showing the relationship between the fiscal year and risk when replacement is performed, and (c) is a diagram showing the relationship between the fiscal year and risk when repair is performed. [Figure 19] FIG. 13 is a diagram for explaining the life cycle cost of each power facility 210 in the fourth embodiment. [Figure 20] FIG. 13 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100E1 according to a fifth embodiment. [Figure 21] FIG. 13 is a block diagram showing another power equipment management system 100E2 according to the fifth embodiment. [Figure 22] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing the relationship between a first risk transition and a second risk transition in the fifth embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0011] Hereinafter, a power equipment management system, a power equipment management method, and a power equipment management program to which the present invention is applied will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0012] (First embodiment) FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100A according to the first embodiment. The power equipment management system 100A is connected to the power grid system 200 and the terminal device 300 via, for example, a communication network NW. The communication network NW is, for example, a general-purpose network such as the Internet, but is not limited thereto, and may include a private network such as local 5G or WiFi (registered trademark). The power grid system 200 includes a plurality of power facilities 210. The power facilities 210 are, for example, power generation facilities, power transmission and distribution facilities, consumer facilities, renewable energy power generation facilities, etc., but are not limited to these, and may include any facilities included in the power grid. The terminal device 300 is an information processing device operated by a person who manages the power grid system 200.

[0013] The power equipment management system 100A is an information processing device that performs processing to manage a plurality of power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200. The power equipment management system 100A includes, for example, an acquisition unit 110, a first risk transition calculation unit 120, a plan creation unit 130, a second risk transition calculation unit 140, an optimization unit 150, and an information output unit 160. The functional units, such as the acquisition unit 110, the first risk transition calculation unit 120, the plan creation unit 130, the second risk transition calculation unit 140, the optimization unit 150, and the information output unit 160, are realized by a processor, such as a central processing unit (CPU), executing a power equipment management program stored on a disk-shaped recording medium. Some or all of these functional units may be realized by hardware, such as a large-scale integration (LSI), an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), or a field-programmable gate array (FPGA), or may be realized by a combination of software and hardware. These functions may be integrated into a single information processing device or distributed across multiple information processing devices.

[0014] The acquisition unit 110 acquires failure impact information and failure probability information. The failure impact information and failure probability information are information for each power facility 210. The failure impact information is information indicating the impact caused by a failure of each power facility 210. The impact caused by a failure may be, for example, a decrease in electricity usage fees, the cost of repairing the failure, or the amount of damage caused to the business. The failure probability information is information indicating the transition of the failure probability of each power facility 210.

[0015] The first risk transition calculation unit 120 calculates the risk transition of each electric power facility 210 based on the failure impact information and failure probability information acquired by the acquisition unit 110. The first risk transition calculation unit 120 calculates the risk of each electric power facility 210 using the failure impact information and failure probability information for each fiscal year and for each electric power facility 210, and calculates the risk transition of each electric power facility 210 for multiple fiscal years.

[0016] The plan creation unit 130 calculates the risk reduction extent of each power equipment 210 resulting from updating the power equipment 210 based on the risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120. The plan creation unit 130 selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the multiple power equipment 210 in descending order of the risk reduction extent of each power equipment 210 so that the total of the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment 210 falls below the target risk value for each year. The plan creation unit 130 creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected pieces of equipment to be updated. The plan creation unit 130 selects the power equipment 210 to be updated for each fiscal year in a preset planning period. The planning period may be, for example, five years or may be a long period such as 100 years.

[0017] The second risk transition calculation unit 140 calculates the risk transition of each power facility 210 after the facility to be updated has been updated based on the facility update plan created by the plan creation unit 130.

[0018] The optimization unit 150 optimizes the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130, based on constraints for the entire power system. The constraints for the entire power system are parameters that vary the timing of equipment update, such as upper and lower limits on the annual construction volume, the budget upper limit, and the upper and lower limits on the number of personnel. As optimization, for example, if the construction volume for the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan exceeds the upper limit, the optimization unit 150 may move the excess construction volume to next year, or if the update costs for the equipment to be updated for each year exceed the budget, the optimization unit 150 may move the excess construction volume to next year.

[0019] The information output unit 160 outputs information for displaying the risk transition of the multiple power facilities 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 140 and the facility renewal plan optimized by the optimization unit 150. The information output unit 160 may transmit the information to the terminal device 300, but is not limited to this, and may output the information to a storage device (not shown) so that the information can be viewed by the terminal device 300.

[0020] The acquisition unit 110 may acquire inspection information. The inspection information is information indicating the implementation status of inspections of each power facility 210. The acquisition unit 110 may acquire the inspection information from an information processing device of a maintenance company included in the power system 200, or may acquire the inspection information from the terminal device 300. The acquisition unit 110 updates the failure probability of each power facility 210 based on the inspection information. The acquisition unit 110 changes the failure probability based on, for example, the degree of deterioration of the power facility 210 as a result indicated by the inspection information.

[0021] FIG. 2 is a flowchart for explaining the processing of the power equipment management system 100A according to the first embodiment. First, when performing a risk assessment of the power grid system 200, the acquisition unit 110 acquires facility information, impact information at the time of failure for each year, and failure probability information for each power facility 210 (step S100). The facility information is, for example, aging information and specification information of the power facility 210. Examples of impact information in the event of a failure include the amount of public disaster damage (also known as public disaster risk or disaster impact), supply reliability (also known as supply risk or power outage impact), and the amount of business operation damage (also known as business operation risk or business operation impact). The public disaster damage amount is the amount of damage inflicted on consumers due to a failure of the power facility 210. The supply reliability is the reliability of supplying the power facility 210 due to a failure of the power facility 210, and is higher, for example, the more stock of the power facility 210 is kept on hand. The business operation damage amount is the amount of damage suffered by the company operating the power grid system 200 due to a failure of the power facility 210. The first risk transition calculation unit 120 multiplies the public disaster damage amount, the supply reliability, and the business operation damage amount by the failure probability, and calculates the sum of the three multiplied values ​​as the facility risk. The risk transition of the power facility 210 increases with each passing year as the failure probability increases.

[0022] Specifically, the power outage impact degree is a product of the power outage impact amount [yen] and the probability of power outage occurrence [%] in the event of a failure. The power outage impact degree is, for example, a product of the impact amount [yen] per kWh in the event of a power outage for each type of power equipment 210, the power outage amount [kWh], and the probability of power outage occurrence [%] in the event of a failure taking into account the redundancy of the power grid system 200. The disaster impact level is the product of the disaster impact amount [yen] and the probability of disaster occurrence in the event of a failure [%]. The business operation impact degree is the product of the business operation impact amount [yen] and the business operation impact occurrence probability [%] in the event of a failure. The business operation impact amount [yen] is, for example, the business operation impact amount [yen] and the occurrence probability [%] of an event that affects business operations in the event of a failure of the power equipment 210. The failure probability is calculated based on, for example, the expected age, standard health score, and current health score of the power equipment 210. The expected age of the power equipment 210 is a value obtained by dividing the standard expected age by a location coefficient corresponding to the location of the power equipment 210 and a usage coefficient corresponding to the usage of the power equipment 210. The standard health score is a value calculated from the age value and expected age of the power equipment 210. The current health score is a product of the standard health score, the health score coefficient, and the reliability coefficient.

[0023] Next, the first risk transition calculation unit 120 calculates the risk (hereinafter referred to as equipment risk) of each power equipment 210 based on the failure impact information and failure probability information acquired by the acquisition unit 110 (step S102), and calculates the risk transition using the equipment risk for each fiscal year (step S104). The risk of the power equipment 210 may be determined, for example, by multiplying the failure impact information and the failure probability.

[0024] Next, the plan creation unit 130 creates an equipment renewal plan (step S106). For example, the plan creation unit 130 prioritizes the selection of power equipment 210 as renewal target equipment, with the power equipment 210 being the one that will result in the greatest risk reduction when the power equipment 210 is renewed, based on the risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120. The risk of equipment to be replaced is significantly reduced in the renewal fiscal year, as shown in the left diagram of S106 in FIG. 2, while the risk of equipment not to be replaced is gradually increased as calculated in step S104, as shown in the right diagram of S106 in FIG. 2. For example, as shown in FIG. 3, the plan creation unit 130 determines the risk of the entire power grid system 200, the equipment to be replaced, and the equipment not to be replaced for each fiscal year by selecting power equipment 210 so that the total risk value, which is the sum of the risk of equipment to be replaced and the risk of equipment not to be replaced, does not exceed the target risk value for each fiscal year. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the relationship between the future total risk value and the target risk value for a plurality of power facilities 210 in the first embodiment.

[0025] Next, the second risk transition calculation unit 140 calculates the risk transition of each power equipment 210 after the equipment to be updated has been updated based on the equipment update plan (step S108). The current impact of a failure, as shown in the left diagram in S108 of Fig. 2, will become higher in the future, as shown in the right diagram in S108 of Fig. 2. Therefore, the second risk transition calculation unit 140 calculates the risk transition by calculating the risk for each year based on failure impact information, which becomes higher as time goes on.

[0026] Next, the optimization unit 150 optimizes the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130, and the information output unit 160 outputs information for displaying the optimized equipment update plan (step S110). 4 is a diagram showing the total risk value for each fiscal year in the first embodiment. For example, as shown in FIG. 4, the power equipment management system 100A can create an equipment renewal plan so as to keep the equipment risk of the many power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200 constant for each fiscal year, and can display the plan on the terminal device 300.

[0027] FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of functions of the power equipment management system 100A according to the first embodiment. The above-described power equipment management system 100A has a risk assessment function 122, a recommended equipment renewal timing calculation function 132, an investment subject creation function 134, and an optimization function 152. The risk assessment function 122, the recommended equipment renewal timing calculation function 132, the investment subject creation function 134, and the optimization function 152 are functions realized by computer processing using an information processing device to realize the power equipment management system 100A. Furthermore, these functions may be integrated into the power equipment management system 100A, or may be distributed between the power equipment management system 100A and another information processing device.

[0028] The risk assessment function 122 is a function realized by the first risk transition calculation unit 120 described above. The risk assessment function 122 may assess the risk of the power equipment 210 using, for example, at least one of system information, customer information, and equipment environment information. The system information is information indicating the configuration of the power system 200, including the configuration of each of the multiple power equipment 210 and the connection relationships between the power equipment 210. The risk assessment function 122 may calculate the risk for each power equipment 210, taking into account the configurations of the other power equipment 210 connected to the power equipment 210. The customer information is information indicating the customer who owns the power equipment 210. The customer information may be, for example, information indicating a risk threshold set by the customer. The risk assessment function 122 may change the risk calculation method depending on the customer and may calculate the risk assessment result depending on the risk threshold. The equipment environment information is information indicating the environment in which the power equipment 210 is installed. The risk assessment function 122 calculates the risk of the power equipment 210 failing depending on the environment of the area in which the power equipment 210 is installed.

[0029] The risk assessment function 122 may assess the risk of the electric power equipment 210 using at least one of equipment specification information, maintenance record information, and abnormality record information. The equipment specification information, maintenance record information, and abnormality record information are information obtained from the supplier of the electric power equipment 210 and the company that maintains and inspects the electric power equipment 210, and are information stored in the terminal device 300 or other storage devices. The risk assessment function 122 may calculate the risk using the equipment specifications of the electric power equipment 210. The risk assessment function 122 may refer to the maintenance record of the electric power equipment 210 and calculate the risk according to the state of the electric power equipment 210 based on the maintenance record. The risk assessment function 122 may calculate the risk according to an abnormality in the electric power equipment 210 that is revealed by inspection.

[0030] The recommended equipment renewal timing calculation function 132 is a function realized by the plan creation unit 130 described above. The recommended equipment replacement timing calculation function 132 calculates a recommended timing for replacing the power equipment 210 based on the risk assessment result of the power equipment 210 calculated by the risk assessment function 122. For example, the recommended equipment replacement timing calculation function 132 advances the recommended equipment replacement timing when the risk is higher than a threshold, and postpones the recommended equipment replacement timing when the risk is lower than the threshold. In this way, the recommended equipment replacement timing calculation function 132 creates an equipment replacement plan that includes the replacement order for the power equipment 210.

[0031] The recommended equipment upgrade timing calculation function 132 may calculate the recommended equipment upgrade timing based on at least one of cost information and constraint information. The cost information is information indicating the cost of upgrading the power equipment 210. The costs include, for example, countermeasure costs for dealing with the equipment upgrade, as well as maintenance costs for maintaining the power equipment 210. The upgrade costs vary depending on the upgrade year and also vary depending on the supply and demand of the power equipment 210 for each year. The constraint information is information that serves as a constraint for upgrading the power equipment 210. The constraints are parameters that change the equipment upgrade timing, such as upper and lower limits on the annual construction volume, a budget upper limit, upper and lower limits on the number of personnel, and the supply amount and timing of parts for upgrading the power equipment 210.

[0032] The investment subject creation function 134 is a function realized by the plan creation unit 130 described above. The investment subject creation function 134 is a function for creating an investment subject that includes multiple equipment renewal works for multiple pieces of equipment to be renewed. The investment subject is the name of a portfolio that includes multiple equipment renewal works to renew the power equipment 210, and is a subject that the manager of the power grid system 200 uses to consider investments. The investment subject creation function 134 creates an investment subject using information such as system information, resource information, construction information, and recommended replacement timing. System information includes the location of the power equipment 210 that needs to be updated. Resource information is information indicating the amount of resources required to carry out equipment renewal work, such as personnel and materials, and the period when they can be supplied. Construction information is information indicating the equipment to be renewed and the date and time for equipment renewal work that has already been decided. The recommended replacement timing is information indicating the recommended replacement period set for each power equipment 210 by the manufacturer of the power equipment 210. The investment subject creation function 134 utilizes resources to select multiple equipment renewal projects that are located close to each other from the perspective of efficiency and registers them under the same investment subject. The investment subject creation function 134 may prioritize the power equipment 210 whose recommended replacement date is approaching and register them under the investment subject, and may determine the date and time of the equipment renewal project by referring to the project information. In this way, the investment subject creation function 134 creates investment subjects for multiple equipment renewal projects per fiscal year and creates a long-term investment plan. The long-term investment plan may include one investment subject or multiple investment subjects.

[0033] The optimization function 152 is a function realized by the optimization unit 150 described above. The optimization function 152 optimizes the long-term investment plan based on investment indicators and constraints. This information serves as an indicator for investment in updating the power equipment 210. As described above, the constraints include the upper and lower limits of the annual construction volume, the budget limit, the upper and lower limits of the number of personnel, and the supply amount and timing of materials for updating the power equipment 210. The process of optimizing the long-term investment plan involves selecting equipment to be updated to the next fiscal year while taking into consideration the investment indicators and constraints, and changing the timing of equipment updating work within the current fiscal year or in a later year. The optimization function 152 may optimize the long-term investment plan based on information about investments other than equipment updating work in the power grid system 200. Investments other than equipment updating work include, for example, construction work to build new power equipment 210. The optimization function 152 may change the timing of equipment updating work included in the long-term investment plan depending on the cost of the investments other than equipment updating work.

[0034] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the relationship between the equipment risk and the reference value in the first embodiment. For example, if the investment subject includes equipment A to F that are to be replaced, the optimization function 152 calculates the equipment risk for each fiscal year by adding up the risks of each of the equipment A to F that are to be replaced. If the equipment risk exceeds a reference value, the optimization function 152 can optimize the long-term investment plan for each investment subject by postponing any of the equipment A to F that are to be replaced until the next fiscal year.

[0035] FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of the function of optimizing a long-term investment plan in the first embodiment. The optimization function 152 may optimize the long-term investment plan so as to keep the construction budget within the cost constraints for each fiscal year. When a budget is allocated to construction other than the equipment renewal construction, such as the new construction (increase) of the power equipment 210 or the expansion of the power equipment 210, in addition to the equipment renewal construction that maintains the risk of the power equipment 210 at a constant value, the optimization function 152 may change the timing of the equipment renewal construction included in the investment subject due to the budget constraints for the equipment renewal construction.

[0036] According to the first embodiment, the power equipment management system 100A calculates a risk transition for each power equipment 210 based on the failure impact information and failure probability information, calculates a risk reduction for each power equipment 210 by updating each power equipment 210 based on the risk transition for each power equipment 210, selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the multiple power equipment 210 in descending order of the risk reduction for each power equipment 210 so that the total risk transition for each power equipment 210 is below the target risk value for each year calculated by adding up the risk transitions for the multiple power equipment 210, and creates an equipment update plan including the selected pieces of equipment to be updated. Furthermore, the power equipment management system 100A calculates the risk transition for each power equipment 210 after updating the equipment to be updated based on the equipment update plan, and can optimize the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan based on the constraints of the entire power system. As a result, the power equipment management system 100A can output information for displaying the risk transitions for the multiple power equipment 210 and the optimized equipment update plan, thereby providing investment information for the power grid system 200. According to the power equipment management system 100A, the equipment to be updated is optimized by calculating the risk transition of each power equipment 210 for the equipment update plan, so that it is possible to create an equipment update plan that refines the risk management of the power system 200 and optimizes the equipment to be updated in the power system 200. Furthermore, according to the power equipment management system 100A, the failure probability of each power equipment 210 is updated based on inspection information indicating the status of inspections of each power equipment 210, and the risk transition is calculated, thereby further refining the risk management of the power grid system 200.

[0037] (Second embodiment) The second embodiment will be described below. In the description of the second embodiment, the same parts as those in the first embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals and the description thereof will be omitted. FIG. 8 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100B according to the second embodiment. The power equipment management system 100B is an information processing device that performs processing to evaluate the risks of multiple power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200. The power equipment management system 100B includes, for example, a prediction unit 170, an acquisition unit 110B, a first risk transition calculation unit 120B, a plan creation unit 130B, a second risk transition calculation unit 140B, an optimization unit 150, and an information output unit 160B. Functional units such as the acquisition unit 110B, the first risk transition calculation unit 120B, the plan creation unit 130B, the second risk transition calculation unit 140B, the optimization unit 150, and the information output unit 160B may be realized by a processor such as a CPU executing a power equipment management program stored on a disk-shaped recording medium or the like. These functions may be integrated into a single information processing device or distributed across multiple information processing devices.

[0038] The prediction unit 170 predicts time-series changes in the impact of a failure caused by a failure of each power facility 210. For example, the population and renewable energy power generation facilities in the area to which the power facility 210 supplies power change over time. In areas where the population of the area to which the power facility 210 supplies power increases year by year, the demand for electricity increases year by year, and therefore the impact of a failure caused by a failure of each power facility 210 becomes greater year by year. As the number of solar power generation facilities increases in the area to which the power facility 210 supplies power, renewable energy increases year by year, and the demand for electricity from power plants decreases year by year. For example, the impact of a failure caused by a failure of each power facility 210 fluctuates year by year. In this way, the flow of power in the power grid system 200 changes due to increases or decreases in the population, renewable energy, and the like, which causes the degree of system congestion to increase or decrease. Therefore, the prediction unit 170 predicts time-series changes in the impact of a failure for each power facility 210, taking into account the time-series changes.

[0039] The acquisition unit 110B acquires failure probability information for each power facility 210. The failure probability information is information indicating the probability of a failure occurring for each power facility 210 and for each fiscal year.

[0040] The first risk transition calculation unit 120B calculates the risk transition of each power facility 210 based on the time series change in the impact of failure of each power facility 210 and the failure probability of each power facility 210 predicted by the prediction unit 170. The first risk transition calculation unit 120B calculates the risk of each power facility 210 using the time series change in the impact of failure and the failure probability for each year and for each power facility 210, and calculates the risk transition of each power facility 210 for multiple years.

[0041] The plan creation unit 130B calculates the risk reduction extent of each power equipment 210 resulting from updating each power equipment 210 based on the risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120B. The plan creation unit 130B selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the multiple power equipment 210 in descending order of the risk reduction extent of each power equipment 210 so that the total risk transition of the multiple power equipment 210 falls below the target risk value for each year. The plan creation unit 130B creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected update target equipment.

[0042] The second risk transition calculation unit 140B calculates the risk transition of the plurality of pieces of power equipment after the equipment to be updated has been updated based on the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130B. The second risk transition calculation unit 140B calculates the risk transition of each piece of power equipment 210 after the equipment to be updated has been updated based on the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130B. The information output unit 160B outputs the risk transitions of the plurality of pieces of power equipment 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 140B.

[0043] In the power equipment management system 100B, the optimization unit 150 may optimize the equipment to be updated each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130B based on constraints for the entire power system. The constraints for the entire power system are parameters that vary the timing of equipment update, such as upper and lower limits on the annual construction volume, budget upper limit, and personnel number upper and lower limit. For example, the optimization unit 150 may shift the excess construction volume to next year if the construction volume for the equipment to be updated each year included in the equipment update plan exceeds the upper limit, or shift the excess construction volume to next year if the update cost for the equipment to be updated each year exceeds the budget. The information output unit 160B outputs information for displaying the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 140B and the equipment update plan.

[0044] FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of input information and output information to the prediction unit 170 in the second embodiment. The prediction unit 170 acquires, for example, facility data, inspection data, system data, and time-series information. The facility data is data indicating changes such as replacement of the power facility 210, changes in the environment of the power facility 210, and changes in the connection relationship between the power facility 210 and other power facilities 210. The inspection data is data indicating the history of inspection results of the power facility 210. The system data is data indicating changes in the power system system 200, such as historical information on the introduction of renewable energy, historical information on power demand, and historical information on abnormality occurrences. The time-series information is information indicating changes in regional population density, etc., acquired from a server device of a local government other than the power system 200. The prediction unit 170 uses the acquired various data and information to predict time-series changes in the impact of a failure, such as time-series changes in the risk of public disasters, time-series changes in the risk to the power supply, and time-series changes in the risk to business operations. The prediction unit 170 may make predictions based on data calculated by inputting acquired information into an arithmetic formula, but is not limited to this. It may input various data into a machine learning model and predict time-series changes in the impact of a failure based on the output of the machine learning model.

[0045] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of failure probability for each year in the second embodiment, and FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of risk for each year in the second embodiment. The failure probability [%] of the power equipment 210 for each fiscal year increases as shown in the standard deterioration curve of FIG. 10, but the prediction unit 170 obtains inspection data showing the results of patrols and inspections and predicts the failure probability of the power equipment 210, thereby making it possible to calculate a prediction result in which the failure probability increases with a larger change than the standard deterioration curve, as shown in the deterioration curve (large) of FIG. 10. As a result, the first risk transition calculation unit 120B calculates the risk transition of the power equipment 210 using the failure probability for each year predicted by the prediction unit 170, and the plan creation unit 130B can create a plan for equipment renewal work based on the failure probability for each year predicted by the prediction unit 170. The first risk transition calculation unit 120B can calculate a risk transition in which the transition is predicted by time-series change A based on the failure probability for each year predicted by the prediction unit 170, rather than the reference risk transition of Fig. 11, for example.

[0046] The impact of a failure may include risk to public disasters, risk to power supply, and risk to business operations. Risk to public disasters is, for example, the amount of public disaster damage. The amount of public disaster damage is the amount of damage caused to consumers due to a failure of the power facility 210. Risk to power supply is the amount of damage caused by a lack of power supply from the power facility 210. Risk to business operations is the amount of damage caused by an inability to operate the power grid system 200. Risk to public disasters, risk to power supply, and risk to business operations change from year to year depending on time-series changes in the region, such as population and the number of renewable energy facilities installed. The prediction unit 170 predicts at least one of the time series changes in risk to public disasters, the time series changes in risk to power supply, and the time series changes in risk to business operations. This allows the power equipment management system 100B to calculate the risk transition for each fiscal year in the power equipment 210 based on the time series changes in risk to public disasters, the time series changes in risk to power supply, or the time series changes in risk to business operations. Note that the risk to public disasters, the risk to power supply, and the risk to business operations may be zero depending on the fiscal year.

[0047] The prediction unit 170 may predict trends in the amount of power demand, the amount of power supply, and the amount of power generated by renewable energy facilities based on at least one of a history of the number of consumers connected to the power grid system 200, a history of the amount of renewable energy facilities installed by consumers connected to the power grid system 200, and a history of the congestion level of the power grid system 200. The prediction unit 170 can predict at least one of a time series change in the risk of a public disaster, a time series change in the risk to the power supply, and a time series change in the risk to business operations based on the prediction results. This allows the power equipment management system 100B to calculate a risk transition for the power equipment 210 based on the number of consumers connected to the power grid system 200, the amount of renewable energy facilities installed by consumers connected to the power grid system 200, and the congestion level of the power grid system 200.

[0048] The power equipment management system 100B of the second embodiment predicts time-series changes in the impact of a failure of each power equipment 210, calculates a risk transition for each power equipment based on the predicted time-series changes in the impact of a failure of each power equipment 210 and the failure probability of each power equipment, calculates a risk reduction for each power equipment 210 by updating each power equipment 210 based on the calculated risk transition for each power equipment 210, selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the multiple power equipment 210 in descending order of risk reduction for each power equipment 210 so that the risk reduction falls below a target risk value for each year that is the sum of the risk transitions for the multiple power equipment 210, creates an equipment update plan including the selected piece of equipment to be updated, and calculates the risk transition for the multiple power equipment 210 after updating the piece of equipment to be updated based on the created equipment update plan. As a result, the power equipment management system 100B can refine risk management and impact calculation by taking into account time-series changes related to the power grid system 200.

[0049] (Third embodiment) The third embodiment will be described below. The same parts as those in the above-described embodiment are designated by the same reference numerals and will not be described again. FIG. 12 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100C according to the third embodiment. The power equipment management system 100C is an information processing device that performs processing to evaluate the risks of multiple power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200. The power equipment management system 100C includes, for example, an acquisition unit 110C, a first risk transition calculation unit 120C, a plan creation unit 130C, a second risk transition calculation unit 140C, an optimization unit 150, and an information output unit 160C. Functional units such as the acquisition unit 110C, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C, the plan creation unit 130C, the second risk transition calculation unit 140C, the optimization unit 150, and the information output unit 160C may be realized by a processor such as a CPU executing a power equipment management program stored on a disk-shaped recording medium or the like. These functions may be integrated into a single information processing device or distributed across multiple information processing devices.

[0050] The acquiring unit 110C acquires grid information, failure impact information, and failure probability information. The grid information is information indicating the power facilities 210 included in the power grid system 200 and the connection relationships between the power facilities 210. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C calculates the risk transition of each power facility 210 based on the system information, the failure impact information, and the failure probability information acquired by the acquisition unit 110. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may change the failure impact information based on the system information, and calculate the risk transition of each power equipment 210 based on the changed pre-failure impact information. The failure impact information varies depending on the connection relationship between the multiple power equipment 210. Furthermore, the failure impact information varies depending on which power equipment 210 among the multiple power equipment 210 has failed. Therefore, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C can refine the calculation of the risk transition by changing the failure impact of the power equipment 210 based on the configuration of the power grid system 200 and calculating the risk transition of the power equipment 210.

[0051] FIG. 13 is a system diagram showing an example of a power system 200 according to the third embodiment. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may lower the failure impact for the power equipment 210 with a redundant configuration and calculate the risk transition using the changed failure impact. On the other hand, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C may raise the failure impact for the power equipment 210 with a non-redundant configuration and calculate the risk transition using the changed failure impact. As shown in FIG. 13, for example, the power grid system 200 includes a power generation facility, a substation facility, and a regional grid, as well as a plurality of transformers 220a, 220b, 220c, and 220d. Transformers 220a, 220b, and 220c are connected in parallel to a common bus bar to provide redundancy, while no other transformers are connected to the bus bar to which transformer 220d is connected. The failure impact information in the power grid system 200 includes the impact amount [yen] per kWh in the event of a power outage, the power outage power [kW] at the time of the failure, the grid switching time, the power outage power [kW] after the grid switching, and the power outage duration [h] set for each type of power facility 210. In an existing power grid system, for example, if the transformer 220a fails, the risk is calculated based on the impact amount [yen] per kWh in the event of a power outage, the power outage power [kW] at the time of the failure, the grid switching time, the power outage power [kW] after the grid switching, and the power outage duration [h] that are preset.

[0052] The first risk transition calculation unit 120C changes the failure impact when redundant transformer 220a, 220b, or 220c fails to a value different from the failure impact when non-redundant transformer 220d fails. This allows the first risk transition calculation unit 120C to calculate a low risk for redundant power equipment 210 and calculate a risk transition.

[0053] The failure impact information includes power outage amount information indicating the power outage power and impact amount when a power outage occurs in the power grid system 200, and the first risk transition calculation unit 120C may change the power outage amount information of the power equipment 210 based on the grid information. If the power equipment 210 has a redundant configuration, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C may change the power outage amount of the power equipment 210 based on the redundant configuration. For example, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C changes the power outage amount when the redundant transformer 220a, 220b, or 220c fails to a value lower than the power outage amount of the non-redundant transformer 220d. This allows the first risk transition calculation unit 120C to calculate a risk transition by lowering the risk for the redundant power equipment 210.

[0054] The plan creation unit 130C calculates the risk reduction extent of each power equipment 210 resulting from updating each power equipment 210 based on the risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120C. The plan creation unit 130C selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the multiple power equipment 210 in descending order of the risk reduction extent of each power equipment 210 so that the total risk transition of the multiple power equipment 210 falls below the target risk value for each year. The plan creation unit 130C creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected update target equipment. The second risk transition calculation unit 140C calculates the risk transition of the plurality of electric power facilities 210 after the facilities to be updated have been updated based on the facility update plan created by the plan creation unit 130C. The information output unit 160C outputs information for displaying the risk transitions of the plurality of power facilities 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 140C and the facility renewal plan.

[0055] In the power equipment management system 100C, the optimization unit 150 may optimize the equipment to be updated each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130C based on constraints for the entire power system. The constraints for the entire power system are parameters that vary the timing of equipment update, such as upper and lower limits on the annual construction volume, budget upper limit, and personnel number upper and lower limit. For example, the optimization unit 150 may shift the excess construction volume to next year if the construction volume for the equipment to be updated each year included in the equipment update plan exceeds the upper limit, or shift the excess construction volume to next year if the update cost for the equipment to be updated each year exceeds the budget. The information output unit 160B outputs information for displaying the risk transitions of the multiple power equipment 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 140B and the equipment update plan.

[0056] FIG. 14 is a block diagram for explaining another example of the first risk transition calculation unit 120C in the third embodiment. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may input smart meter (SM) measurement value information, solar radiation intensity information, and photovoltaic (PV) installation information from the power generation company facility 232 and the general consumer facility 234 via the acquisition unit 110C. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may input patrol inspection information and automatic inspection information from inspection equipment 230 such as sensors and inspection terminals. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may input system configuration information, power generation information, and load information from information equipment 236 such as IEDs and terminals.

[0057] FIG. 15 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure of the power equipment management system 100C in the third embodiment, and FIG. 16 is a flowchart showing an example of a process for evaluating failure impact information in the third embodiment. First, the acquisition unit 110C acquires various types of information from the power grid system 200 as shown in FIG. 14 (step S200), and outputs the acquired information to the first risk transition calculation unit 120C. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C predicts the power generation demand from, for example, smart meter (SM) measurement value information, solar radiation intensity information, and photovoltaic (PV) introduction information (step S202). The first risk transition calculation unit 120C performs a power flow calculation in the power grid system 200 based on the predicted power generation demand (step S204), and predicts the system congestion degree of the power grid system 200 (step S206).

[0058] Next, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C evaluates the degree of grid impact in the event of a failure (step S208). As shown in FIG. 16, the first risk transition calculation unit 120C performs a power flow calculation in the case where one or more pieces of power equipment do not fail (step S302), and a power flow calculation in the case where one or more pieces of power equipment fail (step S304). The first risk transition calculation unit 120C performs the power flow calculation (step S304) assuming, for example, that a high-risk power equipment 210 in the power grid system 200 will fail. The first risk transition calculation unit 120C calculates a higher degree of grid impact in the event of a failure as the difference between the power flow calculation result in the case where no failure occurs and the power flow calculation result in the case where a failure occurs increases (step S306).

[0059] The first risk transition calculation unit 120C may perform power flow calculations in the event of a failure for various failures of power equipment 210 (step S304) and calculate the grid impact in the event of a failure (step S306). The first risk transition calculation unit 120C ranks the impact of the failure and converts the impact with the highest rank among the ranked impacts into a damage amount (step S308). The first risk transition calculation unit 120C calculates the increase in public disaster damage (public disaster risk), the decrease in supply reliability (supply risk), and the increase in business operation damage (business operation risk) when a power equipment 210 fails as the damage amount in the event of a failure.

[0060] The first risk transition calculation unit 120C calculates the risk transition for each power facility 210 by increasing the annual risk of the power facility 210 as the damage amount in the event of a failure increases (step S210). The plan creation unit 130C selects equipment to be updated from the multiple power facilities 210 so as to keep the annual risk constant based on the risk transition and risk reduction range for each power facility 210, and calculates the update timing for the selected update target equipment (step S212). The optimization unit 150 performs synchronization setting to simultaneously update equipment to be updated that has similar update times and locations, for example (step S214).

[0061] The power equipment management system 100C of the third embodiment calculates a risk transition of each power equipment 210 based on the power system information, failure impact information, and failure probability information of the power system 200, calculates a risk reduction amount for each power equipment 210 by updating each power equipment 210 based on the risk transition of each power equipment 210, selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the multiple power equipment 210 in descending order of the risk reduction amount for each power equipment 210 so that the total risk transitions of the multiple power equipment 210 is below a target risk value for each year, and creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected pieces of equipment to be updated. The power equipment management system 100C can refine risk management of the power system 200 by taking into account the system configuration of the power system 200. As a result, the power equipment management system 100C can create an equipment update plan that optimizes the equipment to be updated in the power system 200.

[0062] (Fourth embodiment) The fourth embodiment will be described below. The same parts as those in the above-described embodiment are designated by the same reference numerals and will not be described again. FIG. 17 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100D according to the fourth embodiment. The power equipment management system 100D is an information processing device that performs processing to manage multiple power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200. The power equipment management system 100D includes, for example, an acquisition unit 110D, a first risk transition calculation unit 120D, a risk reduction range calculation unit 180, a cost calculation unit 182, a determination unit 184, a plan creation unit 130D, a second risk transition calculation unit 140, an optimization unit 150, and an information output unit 160D. Functional units such as the acquisition unit 110D, the first risk transition calculation unit 120D, the risk reduction range calculation unit 180, the cost calculation unit 182, the determination unit 184, the plan creation unit 130D, the second risk transition calculation unit 140, the optimization unit 150, and the information output unit 160D may be realized by a processor such as a CPU executing a power equipment management program stored on a disk-shaped recording medium or the like. These functions may be integrated into a single information processing device or distributed across multiple information processing devices.

[0063] The acquisition unit 110D acquires failure impact information and failure probability information. The failure impact information and failure probability information are information for each power facility 210. The failure impact information is information indicating the impact caused by a failure of each power facility 210. The failure probability information is information indicating the transition of the failure probability of each power facility 210.

[0064] The first risk transition calculation unit 120D calculates the risk transition of each electric power facility 210 based on the failure impact information and failure probability information acquired by the acquisition unit 110D. The first risk transition calculation unit 120D calculates the risk of each electric power facility 210 using the failure impact information and failure probability information for each fiscal year and for each electric power facility 210, and calculates the risk transition of each electric power facility 210 for multiple fiscal years.

[0065] The risk reduction range calculation unit 180 calculates a first risk reduction range for each piece of electric power equipment 210 resulting from replacing each piece of electric power equipment 210, based on the risk transition of each piece of electric power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120D. The risk reduction range calculation unit 180 calculates the implementation timing of one or more repairs to be performed before each piece of electric power equipment 210 is replaced, and a second risk reduction range for each piece of electric power equipment 210 resulting from each repair, based on the risk transition of each piece of electric power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 120D.

[0066] Figure 18 is a diagram showing the relationship between the fiscal year and risk for each power facility 210 in the fourth embodiment, where (a) is a diagram showing the relationship between the fiscal year and risk when replacement or repair is not performed, (b) is a diagram showing the relationship between the fiscal year and risk when replacement is performed, and (c) is a diagram showing the relationship between the fiscal year and risk when repair is performed. In the case of electric power equipment 210, the risk of which increases year by year as shown in FIG. 17(a), it is assumed that the electric power equipment 210 is replaced or repaired when the risk of the electric power equipment 210 reaches a risk threshold. A first risk reduction range when the electric power equipment 210 is replaced is greater than a second risk reduction range when the electric power equipment 210 is repaired. It is assumed that the repair of the electric power equipment 210 employs a repair method such as part replacement that maximizes the risk reduction range for the electric power equipment 210 among various repair methods. In this way, the risk reduction range calculation unit 180 can calculate the first risk reduction range and the second risk reduction range for each electric power equipment 210.

[0067] The cost calculation unit 182 calculates a first life cycle cost for each piece of power equipment 210 up to replacement without repair. The first life cycle cost includes the installation cost of the power equipment 210 and the maintenance cost of the power equipment 210 until the risk of the power equipment 210 reaches a replacement threshold at which replacement becomes necessary. The cost calculation unit 182 calculates a second life cycle cost for each piece of power equipment 210 up to replacement after repair. The second life cycle cost includes the installation cost of the power equipment 210, the repair cost to be carried out before the risk of the power equipment 210 reaches the replacement threshold, and the maintenance cost until the risk of the power equipment 210 reaches the replacement threshold.

[0068] FIG. 19 is a diagram for explaining the life cycle cost for each power facility 210 in the fourth embodiment. In the case of power equipment 210 whose risk increases year by year, cost calculation unit 182 calculates the time to replace or repair power equipment 210 when the risk of power equipment 210 reaches a replacement threshold. When the electric power equipment 210 is replaced at the response time, the cost calculation unit 182 reduces the risk of the electric power equipment 210 by a first risk reduction amount at the response time, and then increases the risk of the electric power equipment 210 year by year, and calculates the time t2 at which the risk of the electric power equipment 210 will again reach the replacement threshold. The cost calculation unit 182 calculates the first life cycle cost as the total cost of installing the electric power equipment 210, the replacement cost of the electric power equipment 210, and the maintenance cost up to the time t2. When repairs are made to the electric power equipment 210 at the response time, the cost calculation unit 182 reduces the risk of the electric power equipment 210 by a second risk reduction amount at the response time, and then increases the risk of the electric power equipment 210 year by year, and calculates the time t1 at which the risk of the electric power equipment 210 will again reach the replacement threshold. The cost calculation unit 182 calculates the second life cycle cost as the total cost of installing the electric power equipment 210, the repair cost of the electric power equipment 210, and the maintenance cost up to the time t1.

[0069] The determination unit 184 determines replacement and repair plan information indicating replacement or repair of each power facility 210 based on the lower of the first life cycle cost and the second life cycle cost calculated by the cost calculation unit 182. The replacement and repair plan information is information indicating the replacement or repair timing for each power facility 210.

[0070] The plan creation unit 130D selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the multiple pieces of power equipment 210 so that the total risk transition of the multiple pieces of power equipment 210 falls below the target risk value for each year, calculated based on the replacement and repair plan information for each piece of power equipment 210 determined by the determination unit 184, the first risk reduction range, and the second risk reduction range calculated by the risk reduction range calculation unit 180. The plan creation unit 130D selects pieces of equipment to be updated to be replaced or repaired each year, for example, by adding up the risks of the equipment to be updated in order of replacement or repair time until the target risk value for each year is reached. The plan creation unit 130D creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected equipment to be updated.

[0071] The second risk transition calculation unit 140 calculates the risk transition of each power facility 210 after the facility to be updated has been updated based on the facility update plan created by the plan creation unit 130.

[0072] The optimization unit 150 may optimize the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130D based on constraints for the entire power system. Constraints for the entire power system are parameters that vary the timing of equipment update, such as upper and lower limits on the annual construction volume, budget upper limit, and upper and lower limits on the number of personnel. As optimization, for example, if the construction volume for the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan exceeds the upper limit, the optimization unit 150 may move the excess construction volume to next year, or if the update costs for the equipment to be updated for each year exceed the budget, the optimization unit 150 may move the excess construction volume to next year. The information output unit 160D outputs information for displaying the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130D.

[0073] According to the power equipment management system 100D of the fourth embodiment, a first risk reduction for each piece of power equipment 210 resulting from replacing each piece of power equipment 210 is calculated based on the risk transition of each piece of power equipment 210, the timing of one or more repairs to be performed before replacing each piece of power equipment 210 and a second risk reduction for each piece of power equipment 210 resulting from each repair are calculated based on the risk transition of each piece of power equipment 210, a first life cycle cost for replacing each piece of power equipment 210 without repair and a second life cycle cost for replacing each piece of power equipment 210 with repair are calculated, and replacement / repair plan information can be determined based on the lower of the first life cycle cost and the second life cycle cost. As a result, the power equipment management system 100D can create a long-term equipment renewal plan taking into account multiple options for replacing and repairing the power equipment 210.

[0074] (Fifth embodiment) The fifth embodiment will be described below. The same parts as those in the above-described embodiments are designated by the same reference numerals and will not be described again. FIG. 20 is a block diagram showing an example of a power equipment management system 100E1 according to the fifth embodiment, and FIG. 21 is a block diagram showing another power equipment management system 100E2 according to the fifth embodiment. The power equipment management system 100E1 is an information processing device that performs processing to manage multiple power equipment 210 included in the power grid system 200. The power equipment management system 100E1 includes, for example, an index trend calculation unit 190, a recommended timing calculation unit 192, a plan creation unit 130E1, an optimization unit 150E1, and an information output unit 160E1. Functional units such as the index trend calculation unit 190, the recommended timing calculation unit 192, the plan creation unit 130E1, the optimization unit 150E1, and the information output unit 160E1 may be realized by a processor such as a CPU executing a power equipment management program stored on a disk-shaped recording medium or the like. These functions may be integrated into a single information processing device or distributed across multiple information processing devices.

[0075] The index trend calculation unit 190 calculates trends in an index for avoiding risks due to power outages at each power facility 210, an index for avoiding risks related to disasters at each power facility 210, an index for avoiding risks to business operations at each power facility 210, and an index for reducing response costs by updating each power facility 210. Note that when collectively referring to the index for avoiding risks due to power outages at each power facility 210, an index for avoiding risks related to disasters at each power facility 210, an index for avoiding risks to business operations at each power facility 210, and an index for reducing response costs by updating each power facility 210, they are simply referred to as "investment indexes," and various risks are referred to as "investment parameters" as parameters for calculating the investment indexes.

[0076] The index trend calculation unit 190 may calculate an index for avoiding the risk due to power outages of each power facility 210 by calculating the amount of damage due to power outages set by the power facility 210 for each fiscal year as the risk due to power outages. The index trend calculation unit 190 may calculate an index for avoiding the risk of a disaster of each power facility 210 by calculating the amount of damage when a disaster occurs at each power facility 210 as the risk. The index trend calculation unit 190 may calculate an index for avoiding the risk to the business operation of each power facility 210 by calculating the amount of damage to the business operation of each power facility 210 when a failure or disaster occurs at the power facility 210 as the risk. The index trend calculation unit 190 may calculate an index for reducing the response cost by updating each power facility 210 by calculating the response cost by updating each power facility 210 as the risk. The index trend calculation unit 190 may calculate the index as damage amount or cost, but is not limited to this, and may calculate values ​​by converting each of the multiple indexes into a specific range such as 0 to 100.

[0077] The recommended time calculation unit 192 calculates the recommended time when the total value of the indices calculated by the index trend calculation unit 190 is the maximum during a period that satisfies the constraints on updating each power facility 210. The period that satisfies the constraints on updating each power facility 210 is a period that satisfies constraints such as the budget, supply volume, and personnel required for updating the power facility 210. For example, when the period that satisfies the constraints spans multiple fiscal years, the recommended time calculation unit 192 calculates the sum of the multiple indices calculated by the index trend calculation unit 190 for each fiscal year, and calculates the fiscal year with the highest total value among the total values ​​for each fiscal year.

[0078] The plan creation unit 130E1 selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the plurality of pieces of power equipment 210 based on the recommended timing for each piece of power equipment 210 calculated by the recommended timing calculation unit 192. The plan creation unit 130E1 creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected pieces of equipment to be updated. The optimization unit 150E1 optimizes the equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit 130E1 based on the overall constraints of the power grid system 200. The information output unit 160E1 outputs information for displaying the equipment renewal plan optimized by the optimization unit 150E1.

[0079] The power equipment management system of the fifth embodiment may be configured like another power equipment management system 100E2, as shown in FIG. The index trend calculation unit 190 may include an acquisition unit 1901 , a first risk trend calculation unit 1902 , and a second risk trend calculation unit 1903 . The acquisition unit 1901 acquires failure effect information indicating the effect caused by a failure of each power facility 210 and failure probability information indicating the failure probability of each power facility 210 . The first risk transition calculation unit 1902 calculates a first risk transition of each electric power facility 210 based on the failure impact information and failure probability information acquired by the acquisition unit 1901. The first risk transition calculation unit 1902 calculates the risk of the electric power facility 210 for each year from the year the electric power facility 210 was installed, and calculates a first risk transition for the planning period. The second risk transition calculation unit 1903 calculates a second risk transition of each power facility 210 after updating each power facility 210. The second risk transition calculation unit 1903 calculates the risk of the power facility 210 for each year from the year in which the power facility 210 was replaced, and calculates the second risk transition for the planning period.

[0080] The index transition calculation unit 190 calculates the transition of an index for updating each power equipment 210 based on the difference between the first risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 1902 and the second risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 1903. The recommended timing calculation unit 192 calculates the recommended timing at which the index for updating each power equipment 210 will be maximized.

[0081] FIG. 22 is a diagram showing the relationship between the first risk transition and the second risk transition in the fifth embodiment. If the power equipment 210 is currently newly installed, the first risk calculation value of the power equipment 210 gradually increases from the first reference value R1 to R3 and R4, and becomes approximately constant when it reaches the second reference value R2. If the power equipment 210 is replaced when the first risk calculation value reaches the second reference value R2, the second risk calculation value gradually increases from the start point of the second risk, and becomes approximately constant when it reaches the second reference value R2. Note that the first risk transition and the second risk transition may change over time in a similar manner, but if the power equipment 210 is replaced with another power equipment 210 of the same type, the second risk transition will change over time differently from the first risk transition. The difference between the first risk transition calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit 1902 and the second risk transition of each power equipment 210 calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit 1903 increases from difference D1 at the second risk start point T1 to difference D2 at time T2 when the change in the second risk calculation value is small, and decreases to difference D3 as time T3 approaches when the second risk calculation value gradually increases. The differences D1, D2, and D3 between the first risk calculation value and the second risk calculation value represent risks that can be avoided each year by replacing the power equipment 210, and can be interpreted as indicators for replacing the power equipment 210. Therefore, the recommended time calculation unit 192 can calculate, as the recommended time (year) when the indicator for updating each power equipment 210 is maximized, a period (year) during which the difference D2 between the first risk calculation value and the second risk calculation value is large and the change in the second risk calculation value is small from the second risk start point.

[0082] As described above, according to the fifth embodiment of the power equipment management system 100E1, the value of avoiding the risk of power outages for each power equipment 210, the value of avoiding the risk of disasters for each power equipment 210, an index for avoiding the risk to business operations for each power equipment 210, and trends in the index for reducing response costs by updating each power equipment are calculated, the recommended time when the total value of the calculated indexes for the period that satisfies the constraints for updating each power equipment 210 is maximized, and one or more pieces of equipment to be updated can be selected from the multiple power equipment 210 based on the recommended time for each power equipment 210, and an equipment update plan can be created. Furthermore, according to the power equipment management system 100E2, a first risk transition of each power equipment 210 is calculated, a second risk transition of each power equipment 210 after updating each power equipment 210 is calculated, a transition of an index for updating each power equipment 210 is calculated based on the difference between the first risk transition of each power equipment 210 and the second risk transition of each power equipment 210, and a recommended time when the index for updating each power equipment 210 will be maximized can be calculated. As a result, the power equipment management systems 100E1 and 100E2 can select equipment to be updated and create an equipment update plan based on the cost-effectiveness perspective of risk avoidance.

[0083] Although each embodiment and variant has been described, these are merely examples and are not intended to be limiting. For example, one aspect of the present invention may be realized by combining any of the embodiments or variants, or a part of each embodiment or a part of each variant, with one or more other embodiments or one or more other variants. [Explanation of symbols]

[0084] 100A, 100B, 100C, 100D, 100E1, 100E2... Power equipment management system, 110, 110B, 110C, 110D, 1901... Acquisition unit, 120, 120B, 120C, 120, 1902... First risk transition calculation unit, 122... Risk assessment function, 130, 130B, 130C, 130D, 130E1... Plan creation unit, 132... Equipment renewal recommended timing calculation function, 134... Investment subject creation function, 140, 140B, 140C, 1903...second risk transition calculation unit, 150, 150E1...optimization unit, 152...optimization function, 160, 160B, 160C, 160D, 160E1...information output unit, 170...prediction unit, 180...risk reduction range calculation unit, 182...cost calculation unit, 184...decision unit, 190...index transition calculation unit, 192...recommended timing calculation unit, 200...power system, 220a to 220d...transformers, 300...terminal device

Claims

1. An electric power equipment management system that manages a plurality of electric power equipment included in an electric power system, an index transition calculation unit that calculates transitions of an index for avoiding risks due to power outages for each piece of power equipment, an index for avoiding risks due to disasters for each piece of power equipment, an index for avoiding risks to business operations for each piece of power equipment, and an index for reducing response costs by updating each piece of power equipment; a recommended timing calculation unit that calculates a recommended timing at which the total value of the indexes calculated by the index trend calculation unit will be maximized during a period that satisfies constraints on updating each piece of power equipment; a plan creation unit that selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the plurality of pieces of power equipment based on the recommended times for each piece of power equipment calculated by the recommended time calculation unit, and creates an equipment update plan that includes the selected pieces of equipment to be updated; an optimization unit that optimizes equipment to be updated for each year included in the equipment update plan created by the plan creation unit based on constraints on the entire power system; an information output unit that outputs information for displaying the equipment renewal plan optimized by the optimization unit; An electric power equipment management system comprising:

2. The index transition calculation unit an acquisition unit that acquires failure impact information indicating an impact caused by a failure of each piece of power equipment and failure probability information indicating a failure probability of each piece of power equipment; a first risk transition calculation unit that calculates a first risk transition of each piece of power equipment based on the failure impact and failure probability acquired by the acquisition unit; a second risk transition calculation unit that calculates a second risk transition of each piece of power equipment after updating the piece of power equipment, calculating a transition of an index for updating each piece of electric power equipment based on a difference between a first risk transition of each piece of electric power equipment calculated by the first risk transition calculation unit and a second risk transition of each piece of electric power equipment calculated by the second risk transition calculation unit; The power equipment management system according to claim 1 , wherein the recommended time calculation unit calculates the recommended time when an index for updating each piece of power equipment will be maximized.

3. The power equipment management system of claim 1, wherein the recommended timing calculation unit calculates the optimal action date as the day when the sum of multiple indicators for each fiscal year and each power equipment is maximized, and determines the recommended action date for the power equipment by taking into account constraints for each power equipment with respect to the optimal action date.

4. A power equipment management method for managing a plurality of power equipment included in a power system, comprising: A step in which the power equipment management system calculates trends in an index for avoiding risks due to power outages for each piece of power equipment, an index for avoiding risks from disasters for each piece of power equipment, an index for avoiding risks to business operations for each piece of power equipment, and an index for reducing response costs by updating each piece of power equipment; a step in which the power equipment management system calculates a recommended time when the total value of the indexes is maximized within a period in which constraints on updating each piece of power equipment are satisfied; The power equipment management system selects one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from a plurality of pieces of power equipment based on the recommended timing of each piece of power equipment, and creates an equipment update plan including the selected pieces of equipment to be updated; a step in which the power equipment management system optimizes equipment to be replaced for each year included in the equipment replacement plan based on constraints of the entire power system; a step in which the power equipment management system outputs information for displaying an optimized equipment renewal plan; A power facility management method comprising:

5. A computer of an information processing device that manages a plurality of power facilities included in a power system, A step of calculating trends in an index for avoiding risks due to power outages for each power facility, an index for avoiding risks due to disasters for each power facility, an index for avoiding risks to business operations for each power facility, and an index for reducing response costs by updating each power facility; calculating a recommended time when the total value of the indexes is maximized within a period that satisfies constraints on updating each piece of power equipment; A step of selecting one or more pieces of equipment to be updated from the plurality of pieces of power equipment based on the recommended timing of each piece of power equipment, and creating an equipment update plan including the selected pieces of equipment to be updated; optimizing equipment to be replaced for each year included in the equipment replacement plan based on constraints on the entire power system; outputting information for displaying the optimized equipment replacement plan; This is a power equipment management program that executes the above.

Images