Method for estimating state of sintering process, operation guidance method, method for manufacturing sintered ore, apparatus for estimating state of sintering process, operation guidance apparatus, sintering operation guidance system, sintering operation guidance server, and terminal device

Abstract

This state estimation method for a sintering process includes: a process variable calculation step (S1) for using a physical model that takes into consideration of a chemical reaction and a heat transfer phenomenon in a sintering process to calculate an observable process variable; a degree-of-deviation calculation step (S2) for calculating a degree of deviation between an actual value and an estimated value of the calculated process variable; a model parameter adjustment step (S3) for correcting an unknown parameter of the physical model so as to reduce the calculated degree of deviation; and a characteristic data calculation step (S4) for calculating characteristic data on the sintering process.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a method for estimating the state of a sintering process, an operation guidance method, a method for manufacturing sintered ore, an apparatus for estimating the state of a sintering process, an operation guidance apparatus, a sintering operation guidance system, a sintering operation guidance server, and a terminal device.

Background Art

[0002] In the iron and steel industry, the grade of iron ore has been decreasing due to long-term mining. Therefore, the use ratio of fine ore with a high powder ratio after beneficiation at the mine head is increasing, and the importance of the sintering process for condensing fine ore before charging it into the blast furnace to produce sintered ore is increasing. To ensure the air permeability of the blast furnace, sintered ore with a particle size less than a predetermined size is not charged into the blast furnace but is fired again in the sintering machine as returned ore. Improving the yield, which is the ratio of particles with a size equal to or greater than the predetermined size, is directly related to the productivity of the sintering machine, and there is a strong demand for improving the yield.

[0003] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an overview of the sintering process. On the inlet side of the sintering machine, sintering raw materials (pseudo-particles) obtained by mixing and granulating iron ore fines, coke fines, limestone, etc. are charged from the surge hopper. The sintering raw materials are melted by the combustion heat of coke fines in the sintering machine, the pseudo-particles are fused together, and are cooled by the air sucked from above and discharged. The heat pattern in this series of heating and cooling processes has a great influence on the product yield. The heat pattern is the temperature distribution of the sintered material in the longitudinal direction and the thickness direction of the sintering machine. In particular, ensuring the residence time (high-temperature holding time) at 1200°C or higher, for example, when the ore melts, has a great influence on the yield. Therefore, characteristic data such as the heat pattern that affects the yield is accurately estimated, and characteristic quantities such as the high-temperature holding time are calculated from the characteristic data. Then, by showing guidance operation amounts such as an appropriate raw coke ratio and pallet speed for controlling the characteristic quantity to a predetermined value, the yield can be improved.

[0004] Here, as a conventional method for controlling the heat pattern, Patent Document 1 discloses a method for controlling the position of the BTP (Burn through point) to be constant. In the technology of Patent Document 1, the position in the machine length direction where the temperature of the exhaust gas measured in the wind box at the lower part of the sintering machine becomes the highest is defined as the BTP.

Prior Art Document

Patent Document

[0005]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0006] Here, it may be difficult to control the above-mentioned high-temperature holding time only by controlling the position of the BTP to be constant. For example, even if the position of the BTP is constant, if the pallet speed increases, the high-temperature holding time will be shortened. Thus, in the conventional method for controlling the heat pattern, variations may occur in the high-temperature holding time.

[0007] An object of the present disclosure made to solve the above problems is to provide a method for estimating the state of a sintering process and an apparatus for estimating the state of a sintering process that can accurately estimate the state of the sintering process. Further, based on the state of the sintering process estimated with high accuracy, to provide an operation guidance method, a method for manufacturing sintered ore, an operation guidance apparatus, a sintering operation guidance system, a sintering operation guidance server, and a terminal device that can show guidance for improving the yield.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0008] A method for estimating the state of a sintering process according to an embodiment of the present disclosure is a process variable calculation step of calculating an observable process variable using a physical model considering chemical reactions and heat transfer phenomena in the sintering process, A deviation degree calculation step of calculating a deviation degree between an estimated value and an actual value of the calculated process variable; A model parameter adjustment step of correcting an unknown parameter of the physical model so that the calculated deviation degree becomes small; A feature data calculation step of calculating feature data of the sintering process based on the corrected physical model, and the like.

[0009] The operation guidance method according to an embodiment of the present disclosure is The feature data is a heat pattern of the sintered material in the longitudinal direction of the sintering machine, A high-temperature holding time calculation step of calculating a high-temperature holding time of the sintered material using the heat pattern calculated by the above-described sintering process state estimation method; A guidance operation amount presentation step of presenting a guidance operation amount including at least one of a raw material coke ratio and a pallet speed in order to keep the high-temperature holding time equal to or more than a predetermined value.

[0010] The method for producing sintered ore according to an embodiment of the present disclosure is Sintered ore is produced using the guidance operation amount presented by the above-described operation guidance method.

[0011] The sintering process state estimation device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure is A storage unit that stores a physical model considering chemical reactions and heat transfer phenomena in the sintering process; A process variable calculation unit that calculates observable process variables using the physical model; A deviation degree calculation unit that calculates a deviation degree between an estimated value and an actual value of the calculated process variable; A model parameter adjustment unit that corrects an unknown parameter of the physical model so that the calculated deviation degree becomes small; A feature data calculation unit that calculates feature data of the sintering process based on the corrected physical model.

[0012] The operation guidance device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure is A high-temperature holding time calculation unit that calculates the high-temperature holding time of the sintered material using the heat pattern calculated by the above-described sintering process state estimation device, where the characteristic data is the heat pattern of the sintered material in the machine length direction of the sintering machine, and a guidance operation amount presentation unit that presents a guidance operation amount including at least one of the raw coke ratio and the pallet speed in order to keep the high-temperature holding time above a predetermined value.

[0013] A sintering operation guidance system according to an embodiment of the present disclosure includes a sintering operation guidance server and a terminal device, wherein the sintering operation guidance server includes an actual value acquisition unit that acquires actual values indicating the operation state of the sintering process, a storage unit that stores a physical model considering chemical reactions and heat transfer phenomena in the sintering process, a process variable calculation unit that calculates observable process variables using the physical model, a deviation degree calculation unit that calculates the deviation degree between the estimated value and the actual value of the calculated process variable, a model parameter adjustment unit that corrects unknown parameters of the physical model so that the calculated deviation degree becomes small, a characteristic data calculation unit that calculates characteristic data of the sintering process based on the corrected physical model, where the characteristic data is the heat pattern of the sintered material in the machine length direction of the sintering machine, and a high-temperature holding time calculation unit that calculates the high-temperature holding time of the sintered material using the heat pattern, and a guidance operation amount presentation unit that presents a guidance operation amount including at least one of the raw coke ratio and the pallet speed in order to keep the high-temperature holding time above a predetermined value, wherein the terminal device includes a guidance operation amount acquisition unit that acquires the guidance operation amount presented by the sintering operation guidance server, and a display unit that displays the acquired guidance operation amount.

[0014] A sintering operation guidance server according to an embodiment of the present disclosure includes a performance value acquisition unit that acquires performance values indicating the operating state of a sintering process, a storage unit that stores a physical model considering chemical reactions and heat transfer phenomena in the sintering process, a process variable calculation unit that calculates observable process variables using the physical model, a deviation degree calculation unit that calculates the deviation degree between the estimated value and the performance value of the calculated process variable, a model parameter adjustment unit that corrects unknown parameters of the physical model so that the calculated deviation degree becomes small, a feature data calculation unit that calculates feature data of the sintering process based on the corrected physical model, a high-temperature holding time calculation unit that calculates the high-temperature holding time of the sintered material using the heat pattern of the sintered material in the longitudinal direction of the sintering machine as the feature data, a guidance operation amount presentation unit that presents a guidance operation amount including at least one of a raw coke ratio and a pallet speed in order to keep the high-temperature holding time above a predetermined value.

[0015] A terminal device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure is a terminal device that constitutes a sintering operation guidance system together with a sintering operation guidance server, a guidance operation amount acquisition unit that acquires the guidance operation amount presented by the sintering operation guidance server, a display unit that displays the acquired guidance operation amount, and the sintering operation guidance server corrects unknown parameters of the physical model so that the deviation degree between the estimated value and the performance value of the process variable calculated using the physical model considering chemical reactions and heat transfer phenomena in the sintering process becomes small, The guidance operation amount is an operation amount including at least one of the raw coke ratio and the pallet speed in order to keep the high-temperature holding time of the sinter material based on the heat pattern of the sinter material in the machine length direction of the sintering machine calculated using the physical model in which the unknown parameter is corrected to a predetermined value or more.

Effect of the Invention

[0016] According to the present disclosure, it is possible to provide a method for estimating the state of a sintering process and an apparatus for estimating the state of a sintering process that can accurately estimate the state of the sintering process. Further, according to the present disclosure, it is possible to provide an operation guidance method, a method for producing sintered ore, an operation guidance apparatus, a sintering operation guidance system, a sintering operation guidance server, and a terminal device that can show guidance for improving yield based on the state of the sintering process estimated with high accuracy.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0017]

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

Figure 10

[0018] Hereinafter, with reference to the drawings, a method for estimating the state of a sintering process, an operation guidance method, a method for manufacturing sintered ore, a device for estimating the state of a sintering process, an operation guidance device, a sintering operation guidance system, a sintering operation guidance server, and a terminal device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure will be described. The physical model used in the present disclosure is a model capable of calculating the state in a sintering machine, which is composed of a group of partial differential equations considering physical phenomena such as combustion of pulverized coke, thermal decomposition of limestone, and evaporation of moisture, in the same manner as the method described in Reference 1 (Yamaoka et al. ISIJ International, Vol. 45, No. 4, pp. 522). In the present embodiment, this physical model is a two-dimensional unsteady model capable of calculating the temperature distribution (heat pattern) of the sintering material and the distribution of the exhaust gas composition in the longitudinal direction and the thickness direction of the sintering machine. Further, the position of the BTP can be known from the calculated heat pattern. Hereinafter, the "position of the BTP" may be simply referred to as the BTP.

[0019] As shown in FIG. 2, among the input variables given to the physical model, the main ones that change with time are the pallet speed, the exhaust gas flow rate, the bulk density of the raw material, the moisture ratio of the raw material, the limestone ratio of the raw material, and the coke ratio of the raw material. These input variables can be operation variables or operation factors of the sintering machine. The pallet speed is the speed at which the sintering raw material placed on the pallet of the sintering machine illustrated in FIG. 1 is moved. The exhaust gas flow rate is the flow rate of the exhaust gas of the sintering machine per unit time, and is adjusted by, for example, an exhaust fan. The bulk density of the raw material is the bulk density of the sintering raw material calculated from the layer thickness and the width of the sintering machine, etc. The moisture ratio of the raw material, the limestone ratio of the raw material, and the coke ratio of the raw material are the ratios of moisture, limestone, and coke in the sintering raw material, respectively. Here, coke is the main binder, and the raw material coke ratio may be referred to as the binder ratio.

[0020] In addition, the main output variables of the physical model are BTP and the exhaust gas composition. The exhaust gas composition includes the ratios of O2, CO2, and CO. Here, the output variables may include the temperature under the sintering bed. Output variables that change moment by moment are calculated using the physical model. The time interval for this calculation (the time difference between "t + 1" and "t" in the formula of the physical model described later) is not particularly limited, but is, for example, 5 minutes.

[0021] The physical model can be represented by the following formulas (1) and (2).

[0022]

Number

[0023] Here, u(t) is the above input variable, which is a variable that can be operated by an operator who operates the sintering machine. x(t) is a state variable calculated within the physical model. The state variables are, for example, the heat pattern in the sintering machine, the reaction rate of coke, and the gas fractions such as CO and CO2. y(t) is the above output variable (process variable), which is BTP, the O2 ratio, CO2 ratio, and partial combustion rate in the exhaust gas composition. y(t) can be defined as the main process variable as follows.

[0024]

Number

[0025] Here, the partial combustion rate is the value obtained by dividing CO in the exhaust gas by (CO + CO2) (that is, CO / (CO + CO2)). An increase in the partial combustion rate means that the endothermic reaction of the coke gasification reaction (C + CO2 → 2CO) is activated, and it means that the average temperature level in the sintering process is increasing. Here, in addition, the temperature under the sintering bed and the like can be included as the main process variable.

[0026] As in the past, it is possible to calculate the BTP and the exhaust gas composition using the physical model as it is. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the main process variables for 30 hours calculated using the physical model as it is. In FIG. 3, the values (estimated values) calculated using the physical model are shown by solid lines, and the actual measured values in an actual plant (actual sintering machine) are shown by broken lines. Here, the BTP is represented by the distance [m] from the position of the surge hopper in the moving direction of the pallet.

[0027] When the average estimation error was calculated for each of the main process variables, the BTP was 2.4914 [m], the O2 ratio was 0.0086, the CO2 ratio was 0.0086, and the partial combustion rate was 0.0169. Here, the average estimation error is calculated by obtaining the sum of the squared values of the deviation between the estimated value and the actual value for all steps, and then obtaining the square root of the sum divided by the number of steps. When performing physical model calculations over a long period of time like this, there is a problem that an estimation error (estimation error) of the estimated value that cannot be ignored occurs in the conventional method. In the example of FIG. 3, it is data for 30 hours, but in order to perform control of the sintering process by performing calculations over a long period of one year or more, it is necessary to reduce the estimation error.

[0028] In order to reduce the estimation error, it is effective to sequentially adjust the parameters of the reaction rate of the physical model, the boundary conditions, etc. so that the estimated value and the actual value match. Therefore, it is preferable that the calculation is performed after including one or more variable elements in the physical model as unknown parameters. In the present embodiment, for the reasons described below, three correction parameters for the exhaust gas flow rate, the corrected bulk density of the raw material, and the correction parameter for the ratio of the raw material coke are selected as unknown parameters. Here, other variable elements such as the ratio of raw material moisture, the combustion rate of carbon, and the reaction rate of coke gasification can also be considered as unknown parameters. For example, the combustion rate of carbon depends on the temperature of the solid and the oxygen concentration in the gas, but the proportional coefficient in these relational expressions can be set as an unknown parameter. The unknown parameters need to be selected according to the raw materials used in the target process, the equipment configuration, etc.

[0029] The reasons for selecting the unknown parameters (three correction parameters) in the present embodiment will be described below.

[0030] In a sintering machine, air is sucked from the upper part of the sintering bed, and the exhaust gas flow rate containing CO2, CO, etc. is measured at the lower part of the sintering bed. The measured exhaust gas flow rate includes the flow rate of a gas (leakage flow rate) called so-called air leakage that passes through another gap without passing through the sintering bed. It is difficult to measure the leakage flow rate, and it is difficult to directly input it into the physical model. Therefore, it is considered reasonable to correct the exhaust gas flow rate of the physical model so as to match the actual values of the main process variables.

[0031] Regarding the bulk density of the raw material input in the physical model as ρ [kg / m 3 , ρ is calculated by the following formula (3).

[0032]

Equation

[0033] Here, V [kg / min] is the cut-out speed of the raw material that can be measured. H [m] is the layer thickness of the raw material. W [m] is the width of the sintering machine. PS [m / min] is a value calculated from the pallet speed. Here, the cut-out speed of the raw material is the value measured by the cut-out device upstream of the sintering machine. That is, the charging speed of the raw material actually charged into the sintering machine has not been measured. Therefore, it is difficult to accurately estimate the bulk density of the raw material in the sintering machine. Therefore, it is considered reasonable to correct the bulk density of the raw material.

[0034] Regarding the proportion of raw coke, in addition to the binder (coke) charged into the sintering machine, the operation of blending miscellaneous raw materials containing carbon such as blast furnace dust with iron ore fines in advance in the raw material yard affects it. Since the variation in this blending ratio is large, it is considered reasonable to correct the proportion of raw coke (binder ratio).

[0035] Here, FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the response of the process variable when the unknown parameter is changed step by step. FIG. 4 was obtained by changing the above three correction parameters step by step after continuously applying certain operating conditions in the physical model until a steady state was reached.

[0036] First, when the exhaust gas flow rate was increased by 10%, the BTP was shortened, the O2 ratio increased, the CO2 ratio decreased, and the partial combustion rate remained almost unchanged. When the raw material bulk density was increased by 10%, the BTP was extended, the O2 ratio decreased, the CO2 ratio increased, and the partial combustion rate remained almost unchanged. When the raw material coke ratio was increased by 10%, the BTP remained almost unchanged, the O2 ratio decreased, the CO2 ratio increased slightly, and the partial combustion rate increased.

[0037] Using the step response for the unknown parameters obtained as described above, parameter correction is performed according to the following steps (a) to (f) so that the BTP, O2 ratio, CO2 ratio, and partial combustion rate match. The algorithm described below is called MHE (Moving Horizon Estimation), but other state estimation methods such as particle filters and Kalman filters may be used.

[0038] First, as step (a), the state variables and main process variables for the past A steps are calculated by the following equations (4) and (5).

[0039]

Equation

[0040] Here, k changes from A to 1. Also, the actual value is used for the input variable.

[0041] As step (b), x(t - A + 1) is saved for use as the initial condition for the iterative calculation.

[0042] As step (c), the degree of deviation is calculated by the following equation (6). [Number]

[0043] Here, y act is the actual value. Also, y cal is the estimated value.

[0044] As step (d), as shown in the following formula (7), correction amounts Δα, Δβ, and Δγ of the unknown parameters are obtained so as to minimize an evaluation function obtained by superimposing the degree of deviation and the step response of the main process variable with respect to each of the aforementioned unknown parameters. The α, β, and γ of the unknown parameters in formula (7) correspond to the correction parameter of the exhaust gas flow rate, the correction parameter of the raw material bulk density, and the correction parameter of the raw material coke ratio, respectively. The decrease in the evaluation function corresponds to the decrease in the degree of deviation. Here, a term for preventing the unknown parameters from dissociating greatly from "1" is added to the evaluation function (see Fig. 6). [Number]

[0045] Here, q specifies the main process variable. In the present embodiment, each of q = 1, 2, 3, and 4 means BTP, O2 ratio, CO2 ratio, and partial combustion rate. Also, R q p (s) means the response value at the time step s in the step response of the main process variable q with respect to the unknown parameter p.

[0046] As step (e), the unknown parameters are corrected as in the following formulas (8) to (10). [Number]

[0047] As step (f), the time step t is updated to t + 1, and the process returns to step (a). In this way, the correction of the unknown parameter is performed by sequential arithmetic processing.

[0048] In this embodiment, the correction of the unknown parameter of the physical model is performed using MHE. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the main process variables calculated by the physical model that corrects the unknown parameter. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the transition of the unknown parameter corresponding to FIG. 5. When the average estimation error was calculated for each of the main process variables, the BTP was 0.9961 [m], the O2 ratio was 0.0044, the CO2 ratio was 0.0047, and the partial combustion ratio was 0.0064. That is, it can be seen that the estimation error is reduced by performing the correction of the unknown parameter using MHE as compared with the case of FIG. 3.

[0049] Here, for A in Equation (7), for example, it may be determined so that the time required from the inlet side to the outlet side of sintering can be evaluated, specifically, about 30 minutes to 60 minutes. In the example of FIG. 5, the time step width is 5 minutes, A is 8, and the evaluation time is 40 minutes in terms of time.

[0050] The state estimation device for the sintering process according to this embodiment (details will be described later) can estimate the BTP and the exhaust gas composition with high accuracy by performing the correction of the unknown parameter described above. In addition, by performing high-precision estimation using such a physical model, the estimation accuracy can also be improved for calculating the high-temperature holding time of the sintered material. The high-temperature holding time is the time during which the temperature of the sintered material is held at a threshold value (for example, 1200 ° C.) that affects the improvement of the yield.

[0051] The operation guidance device according to this embodiment (details will be described later) can provide guidance to increase, for example, the proportion of raw coke to raise the temperature and ensure the high-temperature holding time when the calculated high-temperature holding time of the sintering material is less than a predetermined value (for example, 3 minutes). Further, the operation guidance device may provide guidance to ensure the high-temperature holding time by reducing the pallet speed. By presenting information (guidance operation amount) that leads to appropriate actions to the operator, an effect of improving the yield is expected.

[0052] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a configuration example of a sintering process state estimation device 10 and an operation guidance device 20 according to an embodiment. As shown in FIG. 7, the sintering process state estimation device 10 includes a storage unit 11, a process variable calculation unit 12, a deviation degree calculation unit 13, a model parameter adjustment unit 14, and a feature data calculation unit 15. The operation guidance device 20 includes a storage unit 21, a high-temperature holding time calculation unit 22, and a guidance operation amount presentation unit 23. The sintering process state estimation device 10 acquires actual values (also referred to as measured values), which are various measurement values, from sensors provided in the sintering machine and performs calculations using the above physical model. The operation guidance device 20 acquires the feature data of the sintering process calculated by the sintering process state estimation device 10, obtains a guidance operation amount, and causes the display unit 30 to display guidance for the operation of the sintering machine. In this embodiment, the feature data is the heat pattern of the sintering material in the longitudinal direction of the sintering machine. When the high-temperature holding time of the sintering material is less than a predetermined value (for example, 3 minutes), the operation guidance device 20 causes the display unit 30 to display a guidance operation amount as guidance for ensuring the high-temperature holding time. The guidance operation amount can be at least one operation amount (amount to be adjusted), such as the proportion of raw coke and the pallet speed, required to ensure the high-temperature holding time. The display unit 30 may be a display device such as a liquid crystal display (Liquid Crystal Display) or an organic EL panel (Organic Electro-Luminescence Panel).

[0053] First, the components of the sintering process state estimation device 10 will be described. The storage unit 11 stores a physical model that takes into account chemical reactions and heat transfer phenomena in the sintering process. The storage unit 11 also stores programs and data related to the state estimation of the sintering process. The storage unit 11 may include any storage device such as a semiconductor storage device, an optical storage device, and a magnetic storage device. The semiconductor storage device may include, for example, a semiconductor memory. The storage unit 11 may include a plurality of types of storage devices.

[0054] The process variable calculation unit 12 calculates observable process variables using the physical model. In the present embodiment, the process variables are BTP, the O2 ratio, the CO2 ratio, and the partial combustion ratio in the exhaust gas composition.

[0055] The deviation calculation unit 13 calculates the deviation between the estimated value of the calculated process variable and the actual value in the actual plant.

[0056] The model parameter adjustment unit 14 corrects the unknown parameters of the physical model so that the calculated deviation becomes small.

[0057] The feature data calculation unit 15 calculates the feature data of the sintering process based on the corrected physical model. As described above, in the present embodiment, the feature data is the heat pattern of the sintered material in the machine length direction of the sintering machine.

[0058] The process variable calculation unit 12, the deviation calculation unit 13, and the model parameter adjustment unit 14 execute calculations according to the above steps (a) to (f) to correct the unknown parameters of the physical model. In the present embodiment, the unknown parameters are corrected by iterative calculations performed while updating the time step using the above evaluation function including the deviation, the process variable, and the unknown parameter. The feature data calculation unit 15 calculates the heat pattern using the corrected physical model and outputs it as feature data to the operation guidance device 20.

[0059] Next, the components of the operation guidance device 20 will be described. The storage unit 21 stores programs and data related to operation guidance. The storage unit 21 may include any storage device such as a semiconductor storage device, an optical storage device, and a magnetic storage device. The semiconductor storage device may include, for example, a semiconductor memory. The storage unit 21 may include a plurality of types of storage devices.

[0060] The high-temperature holding time calculation unit 22 calculates the high-temperature holding time of the sintered material using the heat pattern calculated by the sintering process state estimation device 10.

[0061] If the calculated high-temperature holding time of the sintered material is less than a predetermined value, the guidance operation amount presentation unit 23 presents a guidance operation amount to the display unit 30 in order to keep the high-temperature holding time at or above the predetermined value. In the present embodiment, the guidance operation amount includes at least one of the raw coke ratio and the pallet speed. The guidance operation amount presentation unit 23 may, for example, display a 10% increase in the raw coke ratio as the guidance operation amount on the display unit 30. The guidance operation amount presentation unit 23 may, for example, display a 5% decrease in the pallet speed as the guidance operation amount on the display unit 30. Here, the guidance operation amount presentation unit 23 may cause the sintering process state estimation device 10 to calculate the increase amount of the raw coke ratio and the decrease amount of the pallet speed using a physical model. That is, the guidance operation amount presentation unit 23 may execute a simulation using a physical model on the sintering process state estimation device 10 in order to determine the guidance operation amount to be presented.

[0062] The operator may change the operating conditions of the sintering machine based on the guidance operation amount shown on the display unit 30. Such operation guidance for the sintering machine can be executed as part of a manufacturing method for producing sintered ore.

[0063] Here, the sintering process state estimation device 10 and the operation guidance device 20 may be individual devices or an integrated device. In the case of an integrated device, the storage unit 11 and the storage unit 21 may be realized by the same storage device.

[0064] The sintering process state estimation device 10 and the operation guidance device 20 may be realized by a computer such as a process computer that controls, for example, the operation of a sintering machine or the production of sintered ore. The computer includes, for example, a memory, a hard disk drive (storage device), a CPU (processing device), a display device such as a display. The operating system (OS) and application programs for performing various processes can be stored in the hard disk drive and read from the hard disk drive to the memory when executed by the CPU. Also, data during processing is stored in the memory and stored in the HDD if necessary. Various functions are realized by organically cooperating the hardware such as the CPU and memory with the OS and necessary application programs. The storage unit 11 and the storage unit 21 may be realized by, for example, a storage device. The process variable calculation unit 12, the deviation degree calculation unit 13, the model parameter adjustment unit 14, the feature data calculation unit 15, the high-temperature holding time calculation unit 22, and the guidance operation amount presentation unit 23 may be realized by, for example, a CPU. The display unit 30 may be realized by, for example, a display device.

[0065] FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing a method for estimating the state of a sintering process according to an embodiment. The sintering process state estimation device 10 outputs feature data of the sintering process according to the flowchart shown in FIG. 8. The state estimation method shown in FIG. 8 may be executed as part of a method for manufacturing sintered ore.

[0066] The process variable calculation unit 12 calculates a process variable using a physical model (step S1, process variable calculation step). The deviation degree calculation unit 13 calculates the deviation degree between the estimated value and the actual value of the calculated process variable (step S2, deviation degree calculation step). The model parameter adjustment unit 14 corrects the unknown parameters of the physical model so that the deviation degree becomes small (step S3, model parameter adjustment step). Then, the feature data calculation unit 15 calculates feature data based on the corrected physical model (step S4, feature data calculation step).

[0067] FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing an operation guidance method according to an embodiment. The operation guidance device 20 presents a guidance operation amount according to the flowchart shown in FIG. 9. The operation guidance method shown in FIG. 9 may be executed as part of a method for manufacturing sintered ore.

[0068] The high-temperature holding time calculation unit 22 calculates the high-temperature holding time of the sintering material using the heat pattern calculated as the above characteristic data (step S11, high-temperature holding time calculation step). The guidance operation amount presentation unit 23 presents the guidance operation amount to the display unit 30 in order to keep the high-temperature holding time equal to or greater than a predetermined value (step S12, guidance operation amount presentation step).

[0069] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of a sintering operation guidance system according to an embodiment. The sintering operation guidance system may be composed of a sintering operation guidance server 40 and a terminal device 50, as shown by the dashed line in FIG. 10, for example. The sintering operation guidance server 40 has the functions of a state estimation device 10 and an operation guidance device 20 for the sintering process, and may be realized by, for example, a computer. Further, the terminal device 50 functions as at least a display unit 30, and may be realized by a portable terminal device such as a tablet or a computer, for example. The sintering operation guidance server 40 and the terminal device 50 can transmit and receive data to and from each other via a network such as the Internet, for example. The sintering operation guidance server 40 and the terminal device 50 may be in the same location (for example, within the same factory) or may be physically separated. Further, the sintering operation guidance system is not limited to the above configuration, and may further include, for example, an operation data server 60 that aggregates operation data of the sintering machine (as an example, performance values and operation parameters indicating the operation state). The operation data server 60 can communicate with the sintering operation guidance server 40 and the terminal device 50 via a network, and may be realized by, for example, a computer that manages the production of sintered ore. The operation data server 60 may be in the same location as the sintering operation guidance server 40 or the terminal device 50, or may be physically separated. Hereinafter, the components and the like will be described by taking as an example a sintering operation guidance system configured to include the sintering operation guidance server 40 and the terminal device 50.

[0070] The sintering operation guidance server 40 acquires performance values indicating the operating state of the sintering process, performs calculations using the above physical model, and calculates the high-temperature holding time of the sintered material using the heat pattern as the calculated characteristic data. Further, the sintering operation guidance server 40 causes a terminal device 50 that functions as a display unit 30 to display a guidance operation amount including at least one of the raw coke ratio and the pallet speed in order to keep the high-temperature holding time above a predetermined value. The sintering operation guidance server 40 includes components of the state estimation device 10 and the operation guidance device 20 of the sintering process described with reference to FIG. 7. Specifically, the sintering operation guidance server 40 includes a storage unit, a process variable calculation unit 12, a deviation degree calculation unit 13, a model parameter adjustment unit 14, a characteristic data calculation unit 15, a high-temperature holding time calculation unit 22, and a guidance operation amount presentation unit 23. The storage unit stores a physical model considering chemical reactions and heat transfer phenomena in the sintering process, programs and data related to state estimation of the sintering process, programs and data related to operation guidance, and the like. The process variable calculation unit 12, the deviation degree calculation unit 13, the model parameter adjustment unit 14, the characteristic data calculation unit 15, the high-temperature holding time calculation unit 22, and the guidance operation amount presentation unit 23 are the same as those described above. Further, the sintering operation guidance server 40 may include a performance value acquisition unit that acquires performance values indicating the operating state of the sintering process. The performance value acquisition unit may directly acquire performance values from sensors provided in the sintering machine or the process computer of sintering, or may acquire performance values via the operation data server 60.

[0071] The terminal device 50 constitutes a sintering operation guidance system together with the sintering operation guidance server 40 and displays the guidance operation amount. The terminal device 50 includes at least the display unit 30. The display unit 30 is the same as that described above. Further, the terminal device 50 may include a guidance operation amount acquisition unit that acquires the guidance operation amount presented by the sintering operation guidance server 40.

[0072] As described above, the method for estimating the state of the sintering process and the state estimation apparatus 10 for the sintering process according to the present embodiment can accurately estimate the state of the sintering process with the above configuration. Further, the operation guidance method, the method for manufacturing sintered ore, the operation guidance apparatus 20, the sintering operation guidance system, the sintering operation guidance server 40, and the terminal apparatus 50 according to the present embodiment can show guidance for improving the yield based on the accurately estimated state of the sintering process. For example, an operator can change the operation conditions based on the shown guidance operation amount, secure the high-temperature holding time of the sintering material at an early stage, and improve the yield.

[0073] Although the embodiments according to the present disclosure have been described based on the drawings and examples, it should be noted that those skilled in the art can easily make various modifications or corrections based on the present disclosure. Therefore, it should be noted that these modifications or corrections are included in the scope of the present disclosure. For example, the functions included in each component or each step can be rearranged so as not to be logically contradictory, and a plurality of components or steps can be combined into one or divided. The embodiments according to the present disclosure can also be realized as a program executed by a processor included in the apparatus or a storage medium recording the program. It should be understood that these are also included in the scope of the present disclosure.

[0074] The configurations of the state estimation apparatus 10 for the sintering process and the operation guidance apparatus 20 shown in FIG. 7 are examples. The state estimation apparatus 10 for the sintering process and the operation guidance apparatus 20 do not have to include all of the components shown in FIG. 7. Further, the state estimation apparatus 10 for the sintering process and the operation guidance apparatus 20 may include components other than those shown in FIG. 7. For example, the operation guidance apparatus 20 may have a configuration further including a display unit 30.

[0075] Further, in the above embodiment, the unknown parameters include three correction parameters, but at least one parameter may be included. That is, if at least one unknown parameter of the physical model is corrected, the estimation error can be reduced.

Explanation of Symbols

[0076] 10 State estimation device for sintering process 11 Memory unit 12 Process variable calculation unit 13 Deviation degree calculation unit 14 Model parameter adjustment unit 15 Feature data calculation unit 20 Operation guidance device 21 Memory unit 22 High-temperature holding time calculation unit 23 Guidance operation amount presentation unit 30 Display unit

Claims

1. A process variable calculation step of calculating observable process variables using a physical model that takes into account chemical reactions and heat transfer phenomena in a sintering process; A deviation degree calculation step of calculating the deviation degree between the estimated value and the actual value of the calculated process variable; A model parameter adjustment step of correcting unknown parameters for correcting input variables given to the physical model, which are variable elements difficult to measure in the physical model, by sequential arithmetic processing while updating time steps so that the calculated deviation degree becomes small; A characteristic data calculation step of calculating characteristic data of the sintering process based on the corrected physical model, including a method for estimating the state of the sintering process.

2. The method for estimating the state of a sintering process according to claim 1, wherein the process variable includes at least one of BTP, exhaust gas composition, and temperature under the sintering bed.

3. The method for estimating the state of a sintering process according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the unknown parameter includes at least one correction parameter of exhaust gas flow rate, raw material bulk density, raw material moisture ratio, raw material coke ratio, combustion rate of carbon, and coking gasification reaction rate.

4. The method for estimating the state of a sintering process according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the unknown parameter is corrected using an evaluation function including the deviation degree, the process variable, and the unknown parameter.

5. The method for estimating the state of a sintering process according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the characteristic data is a heat pattern of the sintered material in the longitudinal direction of the sintering machine length.

6. A high-temperature holding time calculation step of calculating the high-temperature holding time of the sintered material using the heat pattern calculated by the method for estimating the state of a sintering process according to claim 5; A guidance operation amount presentation step of presenting a guidance operation amount including at least one of the raw material coke ratio and the pallet speed in order to keep the high-temperature holding time above a predetermined value, including an operation guidance method.

7. A method for manufacturing sintered ore, which manufactures sintered ore using the guidance operation amount presented by the operation guidance method according to claim 6.

8. A storage unit that stores a physical model that takes into account chemical reactions and heat transfer phenomena in a sintering process; A process variable calculation unit that calculates observable process variables using the physical model; A deviation degree calculation unit that calculates the deviation degree between the estimated value and the actual value of the calculated process variable; A model parameter adjustment unit that corrects unknown parameters for correcting input variables given to the physical model, which are variable elements difficult to measure in the physical model, by sequential arithmetic processing while updating time steps so that the calculated deviation degree becomes smaller. A feature data calculation unit that calculates feature data of the sintering process based on the corrected physical model. A state estimation device for the sintering process comprising: **Claim 9** A high-temperature holding time calculation unit that calculates the high-temperature holding time of the sintered material using the heat pattern of the sintered material in the longitudinal direction of the sintering machine, which is the feature data calculated by the state estimation device for the sintering process according to Claim 8. An operation guidance device comprising: a guidance operation amount presentation unit that presents a guidance operation amount including at least one of a raw coke ratio and a pallet speed in order to keep the high-temperature holding time at a predetermined value or more. **Claim 10** A sintering operation guidance system comprising: a sintering operation guidance server and a terminal device. The sintering operation guidance server: An actual value acquisition unit that acquires actual values indicating the operation state of the sintering process. A storage unit that stores a physical model considering chemical reactions and heat transfer phenomena in the sintering process. A process variable calculation unit that calculates observable process variables using the physical model. A deviation degree calculation unit that calculates the deviation degree between the estimated value and the actual value of the calculated process variable. A model parameter adjustment unit that corrects unknown parameters for correcting input variables given to the physical model, which are variable elements difficult to measure in the physical model, by sequential arithmetic processing while updating time steps so that the calculated deviation degree becomes smaller. A feature data calculation unit that calculates the feature data of the sintering process based on the corrected physical model. The feature data is the heat pattern of the sintered material in the longitudinal direction of the sintering machine, and a high-temperature holding time calculation unit that calculates the high-temperature holding time of the sintered material using the heat pattern. A guidance operation amount presentation unit that presents a guidance operation amount including at least one of a raw coke ratio and a pallet speed in order to keep the high-temperature holding time at a predetermined value or more. The terminal device: A guidance operation amount acquisition unit that acquires the guidance operation amount presented by the sintering operation guidance server. A display unit that displays the acquired guidance operation amount. A sintering operation guidance system comprising:

11. An actual value acquisition unit that acquires actual values indicating the operating state of the sintering process; A storage unit that stores a physical model considering chemical reactions and heat transfer phenomena in the sintering process; A process variable calculation unit that calculates observable process variables using the physical model; A deviation degree calculation unit that calculates the deviation degree between the estimated value and the actual value of the calculated process variable; A model parameter adjustment unit that corrects unknown parameters, which are variable elements difficult to measure in the physical model and are input variables given to the physical model, by sequential arithmetic processing while updating time steps so that the calculated deviation degree becomes small; A feature data calculation unit that calculates feature data of the sintering process based on the corrected physical model; A high-temperature holding time calculation unit that calculates the high-temperature holding time of the sintered material using the heat pattern, where the feature data is the heat pattern of the sintered material in the longitudinal direction of the sintering machine length; A sintering operation guidance server comprising a guidance operation amount presentation unit that presents a guidance operation amount including at least one of the raw coke ratio and the pallet speed in order to keep the high-temperature holding time above a predetermined value.

12. A terminal device that constitutes a sintering operation guidance system together with the sintering operation guidance server according to Claim 11, A guidance operation amount acquisition unit that acquires the guidance operation amount presented by the sintering operation guidance server; A terminal device comprising a display unit that displays the acquired guidance operation amount.

Images