A boiler safety evaluation method, device and system

Abstract

The present application discloses a boiler safety evaluation method, device and system. Firstly, the probability of occurrence of each type of boiler explosion accident is determined based on the cause of each type of boiler explosion accident and the failure terminal, and the real-time probability of boiler explosion is determined based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, inspection information and the above-determined probability value, thereby realizing early warning of boiler explosion based on the terminal status of the equipment itself, inspection information and the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, thereby improving the success rate of early warning.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of boiler risk analysis, and in particular to a boiler safety evaluation method, device and system. Background Art

[0002] Boiler safety is related to all aspects of economic life and safe production.

[0003] At present, usually only one of the boiler pressure, temperature, and water level parameters is monitored, and an alarm is issued for the individual parameter. Factors such as equipment cannot be comprehensively considered, which reduces the probability of successful risk warning. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of this, the present application provides a boiler safety evaluation method, device and system, the specific scheme of which is as follows:

[0005] A boiler safety evaluation method, comprising:

[0006] Identify the types of accidents that lead to boiler explosions and the causes of failure of multiple measures that lead to each type of boiler explosion;

[0007] Determine at least one failure terminal that causes the failure of each measure, and the first probability of failure of each failure terminal;

[0008] Based on the first probability of failure of at least one terminal causing the failure of the measure, determine the second probability of boiler explosion occurring for each type of accident due to the terminal failure;

[0009] Determine the third probability of boiler explosion for each accident type based on the impact parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability;

[0010] The real-time probability of explosion of the boiler is determined based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability.

[0011] Furthermore, it also includes:

[0012] determining a current usage scenario of the boiler;

[0013] Determining a current alarm threshold of the boiler based on the current usage scenario, wherein the alarm thresholds corresponding to the boiler are different when the boiler is in different usage scenarios;

[0014] When the real-time probability reaches the alarm threshold, an alarm prompt is output.

[0015] Further, the accident types that lead to boiler explosion include at least: overpressure explosion and water shortage explosion, wherein the real-time probability of the boiler explosion is determined based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability, including:

[0016] The type of accident that causes boiler explosion is overpressure explosion:

[0017] Determine a real-time pressure value of the boiler, and if the real-time pressure value is less than a preset pressure threshold, the real-time probability of overpressure explosion of the boiler is a third probability;

[0018] If the real-time pressure value is not less than the preset pressure threshold, determining the real-time probability of overpressure explosion of the boiler based on the third probability, the real-time pressure value and the preset pressure threshold;

[0019] The type of accident that causes boiler explosion is water shortage explosion:

[0020] Determining a real-time water level value of the boiler;

[0021] If the real-time water level of the boiler is greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler exploding due to water shortage is the third probability;

[0022] If the real-time water level value of the boiler is not greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler exploding due to water shortage is determined based on the third probability, the real-time water level value, the boiler pump start water level and the preset boiler minimum alarm water level.

[0023] Furthermore, the third probability of boiler explosion occurring for each accident type is determined based on the impact parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability, including:

[0024] Determine the impact parameters of inspection information on boiler explosion, wherein the inspection information at least includes: regular inspection information, daily inspection information and inspection personnel information;

[0025] The product of the influence parameters of the multiple inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability is determined as the third probability of the boiler explosion occurring for each accident type.

[0026] Furthermore, the determining of the second probability of boiler explosion of each accident type caused by the terminal failure based on the first probability of failure of at least one terminal causing the failure of the measure includes:

[0027] Determining a fourth probability of occurrence of each of the measure failure causes based on a first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal causing the measure failure cause;

[0028] A second probability of boiler explosion occurring due to each accident type caused by terminal failure is determined based on the fourth probability of occurrence of each cause of measure failure.

[0029] Furthermore, the determining of the second probability of boiler explosion of each accident type caused by terminal failure based on the fourth probability of each measure failure cause includes:

[0030] Determine the fourth probability of occurrence of each of the multiple measures failure causes leading to the boiler explosion of each accident type;

[0031] The product obtained by multiplying the fourth probabilities of each of the multiple measure failure reasons leading to the boiler explosion of one type of accident is used as the second probability of the boiler explosion leading to the accident type.

[0032] A boiler safety evaluation system, comprising:

[0033] A first determination unit is used to determine the accident type leading to the boiler explosion, and to determine the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each accident type of the boiler explosion;

[0034] A second determination unit is used to determine at least one failure terminal causing the failure of each measure, and a first probability of failure of each failure terminal;

[0035] A third determination unit is used to determine a second probability of boiler explosion occurring for each accident type caused by terminal failure based on a first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal causing the cause of the measure failure;

[0036] A fourth determination unit, configured to determine a third probability of boiler explosion of each accident type based on an impact parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability;

[0037] The fifth determining unit is used to determine the real-time probability of explosion of the boiler based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability.

[0038] Furthermore, it also includes:

[0039] An output unit is used to determine the current usage scenario of the boiler, and determine the current alarm threshold of the boiler based on the current usage scenario, wherein the alarm thresholds corresponding to the boiler are different when the boiler is in different usage scenarios; when the real-time probability reaches the alarm threshold, an alarm prompt is output.

[0040] Furthermore, the types of accidents that lead to boiler explosions include at least: overpressure explosions and water shortage explosions.

[0041] The type of accident that causes boiler explosion is overpressure explosion:

[0042] The fifth determination unit is used to: determine the real-time pressure value of the boiler; if the real-time pressure value is less than a preset pressure threshold, the real-time probability of the boiler overpressure explosion is a third probability; if the real-time pressure value is not less than the preset pressure threshold, determine the real-time probability of the boiler overpressure explosion based on the third probability, the real-time pressure value and the preset pressure threshold;

[0043] The type of accident that causes boiler explosion is water shortage explosion:

[0044] The fifth determination unit is used to determine the real-time water level value of the boiler; if the real-time water level value of the boiler is greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler exploding due to water shortage is the third probability; if the real-time water level value of the boiler is not greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler exploding due to water shortage is determined based on the third probability, the real-time water level value, the boiler pump start water level and the preset boiler minimum alarm water level.

[0045] A boiler safety evaluation device, comprising:

[0046] A processor, used to determine the type of accident leading to the boiler explosion, and to determine the reasons for the failure of multiple measures leading to each type of boiler explosion accident; determine at least one failure terminal leading to each measure failure reason, and a first probability of failure of each failure terminal; based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal leading to the measure failure reason, determine a second probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident due to terminal failure; determine a third probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident based on the impact parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability; determine a real-time probability of the boiler explosion based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability;

[0047] The memory stores a program for the processor to execute the above processing process.

[0048] It can be seen from the above technical scheme that the boiler safety evaluation method, device and system disclosed in the present application determine the accident type leading to boiler explosion and the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each type of boiler explosion accident; determine at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of each measure, and the first probability of failure of each failure terminal; based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of the measure, determine the second probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident caused by terminal failure; determine the third probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident based on the impact parameter of inspection information on boiler explosion, i.e., the second probability; determine the real-time probability of boiler explosion based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability. In this scheme, the probability of each type of boiler explosion accident is first determined based on the cause of each type of boiler explosion accident and the failure terminal, and the real-time probability of boiler explosion is determined based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, the inspection information and the above-determined probability value, so as to realize the early warning of boiler explosion based on the terminal status of the equipment itself, the inspection information and the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, and improve the success rate of early warning. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0049] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0050] Figure 1 A flow chart of a boiler safety evaluation method disclosed in an embodiment of the present application;

[0051] Figure 2 A flow chart of a boiler safety evaluation method disclosed in an embodiment of the present application;

[0052] Figure 3 A flow chart of a boiler safety evaluation method disclosed in an embodiment of the present application;

[0053] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the structure of a boiler safety evaluation system disclosed in an embodiment of the present application;

[0054] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a boiler safety evaluation device disclosed in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0055] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0056] This application discloses a boiler safety evaluation method, and its flow chart is as follows: Figure 1 As shown, including:

[0057] Step S11, determining the accident type leading to the boiler explosion, and determining the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each accident type of the boiler explosion;

[0058] Step S12: determining at least one failed terminal causing the failure of each measure, and a first failure probability of each failed terminal;

[0059] Step S13, determining a second probability of boiler explosion occurring for each accident type caused by the terminal failure based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal causing the failure of the measure;

[0060] Step S14, determining a third probability of boiler explosion of each accident type based on the impact parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion, i.e., the second probability;

[0061] Step S15: determining the real-time probability of the boiler exploding based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability.

[0062] If a boiler explodes, the explosion may be caused by overpressure or water shortage. Overpressure means the boiler explodes due to excessive pressure inside the boiler, and water shortage means the boiler explodes due to insufficient water inside the boiler.

[0063] Therefore, when conducting a boiler safety assessment, the first step is to analyze the types of accidents that may occur in the boiler, and then further analyze the possible reasons for the failure of measures regardless of the type of explosion.

[0064] The reasons for the failure of measures include at least: reasons for the failure of automatic measures and reasons for the failure of manual measures. Different types of explosion accidents may correspond to different reasons for the failure of automatic measures and reasons for the failure of manual measures.

[0065] For example, for overpressure explosion, the reasons for failure of automatic measures include at least: failure of pressure control system, failure of pressure control switch, and failure of mechanical safety valve; the reasons for failure of manual measures include: failure of pressure instrument and operator error;

[0066] For explosions caused by lack of water, the reasons for the failure of automatic measures include at least: failure of the electrode water level control system, failure of the differential pressure transmitter water level control system, failure of the boiler drum direct-insertion electrode water level gauge and failure of the exhaust temperature detection system. The reasons for the failure of manual measures include: failure of the direct-reading water level gauge.

[0067] Different reasons for the failure of different measures will correspond to different failure factors, namely, failure terminals. In fact, it is due to the failure of the failure terminal that the reason for the failure of the measure is generated, and then the corresponding type of boiler explosion accident occurs.

[0068] Among them, the failure factors of automatic measures for overpressure explosion include: circuit failure, PLC failure, pressure sensor failure, pressure switch failure, and mechanical safety valve failure. That is, the failure terminals caused by the failure of automatic measures for overpressure explosion at least include: circuit, PLC, pressure sensor, pressure switch and mechanical safety valve.

[0069] For the failure of the pressure control system, the possible failure factors may be: pressure sensor failure, circuit failure, or PLC failure; for the failure of the pressure control switch, the possible failure factors may be: pressure switch failure, circuit failure, or PLC failure; for the failure of the mechanical safety valve, the failure factor may only be the failure of the mechanical safety valve, and the mechanical safety valve will not fail due to other failure factors.

[0070] Failure factors of artificial measures for overpressure explosion include: operators fail to discover the failure of the overpressure protection device in time or fail to take reasonable operations, causing the accident.

[0071] The automatic failure factors for explosion due to lack of water include: circuit failure, PLC failure, electrode water level failure, differential pressure transmitter failure, boiler drum direct-insertion electrode water level gauge failure, and exhaust gas temperature detection device failure. That is, the failure terminals caused by the failure of automatic measures due to explosion due to lack of water include at least: circuit, PLC, electrode water level gauge, differential pressure transmitter, boiler drum direct-insertion electrode water level gauge, and exhaust gas temperature detection device.

[0072] For the failure of the electrode water level control system, the possible failure factors may be: failure of the electrode water level gauge, circuit failure, or PLC failure; for the failure of the differential pressure transmitter water level control system, the possible failure factors may be: failure of the differential pressure transmitter, circuit failure, or PLC failure; for the failure of the boiler drum direct-insertion electrode water level gauge, the possible failure factors may be: failure of the boiler drum direct-insertion electrode water level gauge, circuit failure, or PLC failure; for the failure of the exhaust temperature detection system, the possible failure factors may be: failure of the exhaust temperature detection device, circuit failure, or PLC failure.

[0073] Failure factors of artificial measures for water shortage explosions include: failure of direct-reading water level gauges, operators failing to promptly discover failure of low-water level protection devices or failing to take reasonable actions, leading to accidents.

[0074] Among them, for the explosion caused by lack of water due to failure of the exhaust temperature detection system, when the boiler is about to explode due to lack of water, the exhaust temperature of the boiler will rise. If no measures are taken, the exhaust temperature will continue to rise. If the operator checks the increase in exhaust temperature and then takes correct measures, the explosion of the boiler due to lack of water can be prevented.

[0075] For each failed terminal, there is a failure probability, that is, the probability of failure of a terminal. The value of the failure probability can be obtained through big data analysis, query data, instrument quality and expert analysis.

[0076] For example: the failure probability of the circuit is 0.01, the failure probability of the PLC is 0.01, the failure probability of the pressure sensor is 0.1, the failure probability of the pressure switch is 0.1, the failure probability of the mechanical safety valve is 0.01, the failure probability of the electrode water level gauge is 0.1, the failure probability of the differential pressure transmitter is 0.1, the failure probability of the boiler drum direct-insertion electrode water level gauge is 0.1, the failure probability of the exhaust temperature detection device is 0.1, the probability of artificial failure in artificial measures is 0.1, the failure probability of the pressure instrument in artificial measures is 0.1, and the failure probability of the direct-reading water level gauge in artificial measures is 0.1.

[0077] The failure probability of each failed terminal is determined as a first probability, and then a second probability of boiler explosion occurring for each accident type due to terminal failure is determined based on the first probability.

[0078] A boiler explosion of a certain accident type may be caused by at least one of the multiple reasons for the failure of measures, and the failure factor of each reason for the failure of measures may be one or more, and the failure probability of each failure factor is the first probability. Therefore, the probability of a boiler explosion of the accident type corresponding to the failure factor can be determined directly based on the first probability of not less than one failure factor, that is, the second probability.

[0079] After determining the second probability of boiler explosion for each type of accident caused by terminal failure, inspection information can also be obtained to determine the third probability based on the inspection information and the second probability. That is, when determining the probability of boiler explosion, not only the explosion caused by terminal failure is considered, but also a reference factor of boiler explosion caused by inadequate inspection information is added.

[0080] Furthermore, the real-time operating parameters of the boiler can be added as a reference factor for boiler explosion, and the probability of boiler explosion can be determined together with the terminal failure and inspection information.

[0081] In this scheme, the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, inspection information, terminal failure and other reasons are used as reference factors to jointly determine the probability of boiler explosion and improve the accuracy of boiler explosion warning.

[0082] The boiler safety evaluation method disclosed in this embodiment determines the accident type leading to boiler explosion and the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each type of boiler explosion accident; determines at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of each measure, and the first probability of failure of each failure terminal; based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of the measure, determines the second probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident caused by terminal failure; determines the third probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident based on the second probability of the impact parameter of inspection information on boiler explosion; determines the real-time probability of boiler explosion based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability. In this scheme, the probability of each type of boiler explosion accident is first determined based on the cause of each type of boiler explosion accident and the failure terminal, and the real-time probability of boiler explosion is determined based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, the inspection information and the above-determined probability value, so as to realize the early warning of boiler explosion based on the terminal status of the equipment itself, the inspection information and the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, and improve the success rate of early warning.

[0083] This embodiment discloses a boiler safety evaluation method, and its flow chart is as follows: Figure 2 As shown, including:

[0084] Step S21, determining the accident type leading to the boiler explosion, and determining the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each accident type of the boiler explosion;

[0085] Step S22: determining at least one failed terminal causing the failure of each measure, and a first failure probability of each failed terminal;

[0086] Step S23, determining a second probability of boiler explosion occurring for each accident type caused by the terminal failure based on the first probability of failure of at least one terminal causing the failure of the measure;

[0087] Step S24, determining a third probability of boiler explosion of each accident type based on the influencing parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability;

[0088] Step S25, determining the real-time probability of the boiler exploding based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability;

[0089] Step S26, determining the current usage scenario of the boiler;

[0090] Step S27, determining the current alarm threshold of the boiler based on the current usage scenario. The boiler has different corresponding alarm thresholds when the boiler is in different usage scenarios; when the real-time probability reaches the alarm threshold, an alarm prompt is output.

[0091] The boiler will correspond to different alarm thresholds in different usage scenarios. That is, in different scenarios, when the probability of boiler explosion determined based on terminal failure probability, inspection information and real-time operating parameters reaches the alarm threshold in the corresponding scenario, an alarm prompt will be output to alarm. If the probability of boiler explosion reaches the alarm threshold in other usage scenarios, no prompt will be given.

[0092] The usage scenarios may include: major event support, crowded places and general places. For major event support, when the probability of explosion reaches a low value, an alarm will be output; for crowded places, when the probability of explosion reaches a medium value, an alarm will be output; for general places, when the probability of explosion reaches a high value, an alarm will be output.

[0093] For example, in the scenario of major event support venues, the alarm threshold for overpressure explosion can be set to 0.01, and the alarm threshold for water shortage explosion can be set to 0.004; in the scenario of crowded places, the alarm threshold for overpressure explosion can be set to 0.02, and the alarm threshold for water shortage explosion can be set to 0.005; in the scenario of general places, the alarm threshold for overpressure explosion can be set to 0.03, and the alarm threshold for water shortage explosion can be set to 0.006;

[0094] In addition, a warning threshold can also be set. The warning threshold is the threshold for warning before the alarm threshold. Continuing with the above example, in the scenario of major event security venues, the alarm threshold for overpressure explosion can be set to 0.01, and the warning threshold for overpressure explosion can be set to 0.00003, that is, when the probability of overpressure explosion reaches 0.00003, a warning prompt is issued, and an alarm is issued when the probability of overpressure explosion reaches 0.01; in the scenario of major event security venues, the alarm threshold for water shortage explosion can be set to 0.004, and the warning threshold for water shortage explosion can be set to 0.00004, that is, when the probability of water shortage explosion reaches 0.00004, a warning prompt is issued, and an alarm prompt is issued when the probability of water shortage explosion reaches 0.004;

[0095] In the case of crowded places, the alarm threshold for overpressure explosion can be set to 0.02, and the warning threshold for overpressure explosion can be set to 0.00004; the alarm threshold for water shortage explosion can be set to 0.005, and the warning threshold can be set to 0.00005;

[0096] In general scenarios, the alarm threshold for overpressure explosion can be set to 0.03, and the warning threshold can be set to 0.00005; the alarm threshold for water shortage explosion can be set to 0.006, and the warning threshold can be set to 0.00006.

[0097] Furthermore, the third probability of boiler explosion of each accident type is determined based on the impact parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability, including:

[0098] Determine the impact parameters of inspection information on boiler explosion, where the inspection information at least includes: regular inspection information, daily inspection information and inspection personnel information; and determine the product of the impact parameters of multiple inspection information on boiler explosion and the second probability as the third probability of boiler explosion for each accident type.

[0099] Inspection information shall at least include: regular inspection information, daily inspection information and inspection personnel information.

[0100] Among them, inspection refers to regular or daily inspections by inspection personnel to determine whether there is any abnormality in the boiler. For regular inspections or daily inspections, whether the inspection process complies with regulations will be used as an influencing parameter to affect the probability of boiler explosion.

[0101] Taking regular inspections as an example, if the regular inspections are in full compliance with regulations, the impact parameter on the probability of boiler explosion is 1; if the percentage of regular inspections in compliance with regulations reaches a first predetermined value, the impact parameter on the probability of boiler explosion is 10; if the regular inspections are not in compliance with the agenda or there are no inspection records, the impact parameter on the probability of boiler explosion is 100.

[0102] Among them, the method for determining the influencing parameters of regular inspections is to use the inspection documents of the unit through on-site investigation to determine the influencing parameters of regular inspections.

[0103] For daily inspections, if the daily inspections fully meet the requirements, the impact parameter on the probability of boiler explosion is 1; if the percentage of daily inspections in compliance with regulations reaches a second predetermined value, the impact parameter on the probability of boiler explosion is 10; if daily inspections do not meet the requirements or there are no inspection records, the impact parameter on the probability of boiler explosion is 100.

[0104] Among them, the method for determining the influencing parameters of daily inspections is: on-site investigation of the inspection records of the use unit to determine the influencing parameters of daily inspections.

[0105] For the inspection personnel information, whether it is regular inspection or daily inspection, if the inspection personnel is certified and has worked for more than three years, the impact parameter on the probability of boiler explosion is 1; if the inspection personnel is certified but has no work experience, the impact parameter on the probability of boiler explosion is 10; if the inspection personnel is uncertified, the impact parameter on the probability of boiler explosion is 100.

[0106] The influencing parameters of the inspection personnel information are determined by conducting on-site investigation of the boiler operators of the user unit, namely the certificates and years of work of the inspection personnel, to determine the influencing parameters of the inspection personnel on the probability of boiler explosion.

[0107] Specifically, if the influencing parameter of regular inspection is S1, the influencing parameter of daily inspection is S2, the influencing parameter of inspection personnel information is S3, the second probability is P1, and the third probability is P1', then

[0108] P1'=S1*S2*S3*P1

[0109] The boiler safety evaluation method disclosed in this embodiment determines the accident type leading to boiler explosion and the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each type of boiler explosion accident; determines at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of each measure, and the first probability of failure of each failure terminal; based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of the measure, determines the second probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident caused by terminal failure; determines the third probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident based on the second probability of the impact parameter of inspection information on boiler explosion; determines the real-time probability of boiler explosion based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability. In this scheme, the probability of each type of boiler explosion accident is first determined based on the cause of each type of boiler explosion accident and the failure terminal, and the real-time probability of boiler explosion is determined based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, the inspection information and the above-determined probability value, so as to realize the early warning of boiler explosion based on the terminal status of the equipment itself, the inspection information and the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, and improve the success rate of early warning.

[0110] This embodiment discloses a boiler safety evaluation method, and its flow chart is as follows: Figure 3 As shown, including:

[0111] Step S31, determining the accident type leading to the boiler explosion, and determining the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each accident type of the boiler explosion;

[0112] Step S32: determining at least one failed terminal causing the failure of each measure, and a first probability of failure of each failed terminal;

[0113] Step S33: determining a fourth probability of occurrence of each measure failure cause based on the first probability that at least one failure terminal causing the measure failure cause fails;

[0114] Step S34, determining a second probability of boiler explosion occurring based on each accident typology caused by terminal failure based on a fourth probability of occurrence of each measure failure cause;

[0115] Step S35, determining a third probability of boiler explosion of each accident type based on the influencing parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability;

[0116] Step S36: Determine the real-time probability of the boiler exploding based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability.

[0117] Each measure failure cause may be caused by the failure of multiple different failure terminals. Therefore, when determining the probability of a certain measure failure cause, it is necessary to determine the failure probability based on all failure terminals corresponding to the measure failure cause.

[0118] Taking the failure probability of the pressure control system in an overpressure explosion as an example, the fourth probability of the failure of the pressure control system is ZP 11 ,but

[0119] ZP 11 =ZP 111 +ZP 101 +ZP 102

[0120] Among them, ZP 111 is the probability of pressure sensor failure, ZP 101 is the probability of circuit failure, ZP 102 is the probability of PLC failure;

[0121] The pressure control switch fails in the overpressure explosion. The fourth probability of the failure of the pressure control switch is ZP 12 ,but

[0122] ZP 12 =ZP 121 +ZP 101 +ZP 102

[0123] Among them, ZP 121 is the probability of pressure switch failure;

[0124] The mechanical safety valve fails in an overpressure explosion. The fourth probability of the failure of the mechanical safety valve is ZP 13 ,but

[0125] ZP 13 =ZP131

[0126] Among them, ZP 131 is the probability of failure of the mechanical safety valve.

[0127] In addition, the probability of failure of artificial measures leading to overpressure explosion accidents RP 11 for:

[0128] RP 11 =RP 111 +RP 101

[0129] Among them, RP 111 is the failure probability of the pressure instrument, RP 101 is the probability of artificial failure.

[0130] For the failure of the electrode water level control system in the water shortage explosion, the fourth probability of the failure of the electrode water level control system is ZP 21 ,but

[0131] ZP 21 =ZP 211 +ZP 201 +ZP 202

[0132] Among them, ZP 211 is the probability of failure of the electrode water level gauge, ZP 201 is the probability of circuit failure, ZP 202 is the probability of PLC failure;

[0133] The water level control system of the differential pressure transmitter fails in the water shortage explosion. The fourth probability of the failure of the water level control system of the differential pressure transmitter is ZP 22 ,but

[0134] ZP 22 =ZP 221 +ZP 201 +ZP 202

[0135] Among them, ZP 221 is the failure probability of the differential pressure transmitter;

[0136] The boiler drum direct-insertion electrode water level gauge fails in the water shortage explosion. The fourth probability of the failure of the boiler drum direct-insertion electrode water level gauge failure is ZP 23 ,but

[0137] ZP 23 =ZP 231 +ZP 201 +ZP 202

[0138] Among them, ZP 231 is the failure probability of the boiler drum direct-insertion electrode water level gauge;

[0139] The exhaust temperature detection system fails in the water shortage explosion. The fourth probability of failure of the exhaust temperature detection system is ZP 24 ,but

[0140] ZP 24 =ZP 241 +ZP 201 +ZP 202

[0141] Among them, ZP 241 is the failure probability of the exhaust temperature detection device.

[0142] In addition, the probability of failure of artificial measures leading to water shortage explosion accidents RP 21 for:

[0143] RP 21 =RP 211 +RP 201

[0144] Among them, RP 211 is the failure probability of the direct-reading water level gauge, RP 201 is the probability of artificial failure.

[0145] After determining the fourth probability of occurrence of each measure failure cause, the second probability of occurrence of boiler explosion of each accident type caused by terminal failure is determined based on the fourth probability.

[0146] The fourth probability of each of the multiple causes of failure of measures leading to each type of boiler explosion is determined, and the product of the fourth probabilities of each of the multiple causes of failure of measures leading to one type of boiler explosion is used as the second probability of the boiler explosion leading to the accident type.

[0147] Specifically, since the accident types can be divided into overpressure explosion and water shortage explosion, for overpressure explosion, the second probability of overpressure explosion can be: the product of the fourth probability of each of the multiple measures failure causes that can cause overpressure explosion.

[0148] That is, for an overpressure explosion, the probability P1 of an overpressure explosion is

[0149] P1=ZP 11 ×ZP 12 ×ZP 13 ×RP 11

[0150] For water shortage explosion, the probability P2 of water shortage explosion occurring is

[0151] P2 = ZP 21 ×ZP 22 ×ZP 23 ×ZP 24 ×RP 21

[0152] Based on the above formula, the occurrence probability P1 of overpressure explosion caused by terminal failure and the occurrence probability P2 of water shortage explosion caused by terminal failure can be determined.

[0153] Furthermore, based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability, the real-time probability of the boiler explosion is determined, including:

[0154] For overpressure explosion: Determine the real-time pressure value of the boiler. If the real-time pressure value is less than the preset pressure threshold, the real-time probability of the boiler overpressure explosion is the third probability; if the real-time pressure value is not less than the preset pressure threshold, based on the third probability, the real-time pressure value and the preset pressure threshold, determine the real-time probability of the boiler differential pressure explosion.

[0155] That is, if p is the real-time pressure value and p0 is the preset pressure threshold, then

[0156] If p < p0, then P”1 = P’1;

[0157] If p ≥ p0, then

[0158] For water shortage explosion: Determine the real-time water level value of the boiler. If the real-time water level value of the boiler is greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler water shortage explosion is the third probability; if the real-time water level value of the boiler is not greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, based on the third probability, the real-time water level value, the boiler pump start water level and the preset boiler minimum alarm water level, determine the real-time probability of the boiler water shortage explosion.

[0159] That is, if l is the real-time water level value, l1 is the boiler pump start water level, and l2 is the boiler minimum alarm water level, then

[0160] If l > l1, then P”2 = P’2;

[0161] If l ≤ l1, then

[0162] The boiler safety evaluation method disclosed in this embodiment determines the accident type leading to boiler explosion and the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each type of boiler explosion accident; determines at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of each measure, and the first probability of failure of each failure terminal; based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of the measure, determines the second probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident caused by terminal failure; determines the third probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident based on the second probability of the impact parameter of inspection information on boiler explosion; determines the real-time probability of boiler explosion based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability. In this scheme, the probability of each type of boiler explosion accident is first determined based on the cause of each type of boiler explosion accident and the failure terminal, and the real-time probability of boiler explosion is determined based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, the inspection information and the above-determined probability value, so as to realize the early warning of boiler explosion based on the terminal status of the equipment itself, the inspection information and the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, and improve the success rate of early warning.

[0163] This embodiment discloses a boiler safety evaluation system, and its structural diagram is as follows: Figure 4 As shown, including:

[0164] a first determining unit 41 , a second determining unit 42 , a third determining unit 43 , a fourth determining unit 44 and a fifth determining unit 45 .

[0165] The first determination unit 41 is used to determine the accident type leading to the boiler explosion, and to determine the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each type of accident type of the boiler explosion;

[0166] The second determination unit 42 is used to determine at least one failure terminal that causes the failure of each measure, and a first probability of failure of each failure terminal;

[0167] The third determination unit 43 is used to determine a second probability of boiler explosion occurring due to each accident type caused by terminal failure based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal causing the failure of the measure;

[0168] The fourth determination unit 44 is used to determine the third probability of boiler explosion of each accident type based on the impact parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability;

[0169] The fifth determination unit 45 is used to determine the real-time probability of the boiler exploding based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability.

[0170] Furthermore, the boiler safety evaluation system disclosed in this embodiment may also include:

[0171] The output unit is used to determine the current usage scenario of the boiler, and determine the current alarm threshold of the boiler based on the current usage scenario, wherein the alarm thresholds corresponding to the boiler are different when the boiler is in different usage scenarios; when the real-time probability reaches the alarm threshold, an alarm prompt is output.

[0172] Furthermore, the types of accidents that lead to boiler explosions include at least: overpressure explosion and water shortage explosion.

[0173] The type of accident that causes boiler explosion is overpressure explosion:

[0174] The fifth determination unit is used to: determine the real-time pressure value of the boiler, if the real-time pressure value is less than the preset pressure threshold, the real-time probability of the boiler overpressure explosion is the third probability; if the real-time pressure value is not less than the preset pressure threshold, determine the real-time probability of the boiler overpressure explosion based on the third probability, the real-time pressure value and the preset pressure threshold;

[0175] The type of accident that causes boiler explosion is water shortage explosion:

[0176] The fifth determination unit is used to determine the real-time water level value of the boiler; if the real-time water level value of the boiler is greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler exploding due to water shortage is the third probability; if the real-time water level value of the boiler is not greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler exploding due to water shortage is determined based on the third probability, the real-time water level value, the boiler pump start water level and the preset boiler minimum alarm water level.

[0177] Furthermore, the fourth determining unit is used for:

[0178] Determine the impact parameters of inspection information on boiler explosion, where the inspection information at least includes: regular inspection information, daily inspection information and inspection personnel information; and determine the product of the impact parameters of multiple inspection information on boiler explosion and the second probability as the third probability of boiler explosion for each accident type.

[0179] Further, the third determining unit is used for:

[0180] Based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal causing the failure of the measure, the fourth probability of occurrence of each measure failure cause is determined; based on the fourth probability of occurrence of each measure failure cause, the second probability of occurrence of boiler explosion of each accident type caused by terminal failure is determined.

[0181] Further, the third determining unit is used for:

[0182] Determine the fourth probability of each of the multiple causes of failure of measures leading to each type of boiler explosion; multiply the fourth probability of each of the multiple causes of failure of measures leading to one type of boiler explosion as the second probability of the boiler explosion leading to the accident type.

[0183] The boiler safety evaluation system disclosed in this embodiment is implemented based on the boiler safety evaluation method disclosed in the above embodiment, which will not be described in detail here.

[0184] The boiler safety evaluation system disclosed in this embodiment determines the accident type leading to boiler explosion and the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each type of boiler explosion accident; determines at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of each measure, and the first probability of failure of each failure terminal; based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of the measure, determines the second probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident caused by terminal failure; determines the third probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident based on the second probability of the impact parameter of inspection information on boiler explosion; determines the real-time probability of boiler explosion based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability. In this scheme, the probability of each type of boiler explosion accident is first determined based on the cause of each type of boiler explosion accident and the failure terminal, and the real-time probability of boiler explosion is determined based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, the inspection information and the above-determined probability value, so as to realize the early warning of boiler explosion based on the terminal status of the equipment itself, the inspection information and the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, and improve the success rate of early warning.

[0185] This embodiment discloses a boiler safety evaluation device, and its structural schematic diagram is shown in FIG. Figure 5 As shown, including:

[0186] Processor 51 and memory 52.

[0187] The processor 51 is used to determine the type of accident that causes the boiler explosion, and to determine the failure reasons of multiple measures that cause each type of boiler explosion accident; determine at least one failure terminal that causes each measure failure reason, and a first probability of failure of each failure terminal; determine a second probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident caused by terminal failure based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal that causes the measure failure reason; determine a third probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident based on the impact parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability; determine the real-time probability of boiler explosion based on the real-time operation parameters of the boiler and the third probability;

[0188] The memory 52 is used to store the program for the processor to execute the above-mentioned processing process.

[0189] The boiler safety evaluation device disclosed in this embodiment is implemented by the boiler safety evaluation method disclosed in the above embodiment, which will not be described in detail here.

[0190] The boiler safety evaluation device disclosed in this embodiment determines the accident type leading to boiler explosion and the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each type of boiler explosion accident; determines at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of each measure, and the first probability of failure of each failure terminal; based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal leading to the failure reason of the measure, determines the second probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident caused by terminal failure; determines the third probability of boiler explosion of each type of accident based on the second probability of the impact parameter of inspection information on boiler explosion; determines the real-time probability of boiler explosion based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler and the third probability. In this scheme, the probability of each type of boiler explosion accident is first determined based on the cause of each type of boiler explosion accident and the failure terminal, and the real-time probability of boiler explosion is determined based on the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, the inspection information and the above-determined probability value, so as to realize the early warning of boiler explosion based on the terminal status of the equipment itself, the inspection information and the real-time operating parameters of the boiler, and improve the success rate of early warning.

[0191] In this specification, each embodiment is described in a progressive manner, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. The same or similar parts between the embodiments can be referred to each other. For the device disclosed in the embodiment, since it corresponds to the method disclosed in the embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the method part.

[0192] Professionals may further appreciate that the units and algorithm steps of each example described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, computer software, or a combination of the two. In order to clearly illustrate the interchangeability of hardware and software, the composition and steps of each example have been generally described in the above description according to function. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professionals and technicians may use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to be beyond the scope of this application.

[0193] The steps of the method or algorithm described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented directly using hardware, a software module executed by a processor, or a combination of the two. The software module may be placed in a random access memory (RAM), a memory, a read-only memory (ROM), an electrically programmable ROM, an electrically erasable programmable ROM, a register, a hard disk, a removable disk, a CD-ROM, or any other form of storage medium known in the art.

[0194] The above description of the disclosed embodiments enables those skilled in the art to implement or use the present application. Various modifications to these embodiments will be apparent to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present application. Therefore, the present application will not be limited to the embodiments shown herein, but will conform to the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A boiler safety evaluation method, characterized in that: include: Determine the types of accidents that lead to boiler explosions, and determine the reasons for failure of multiple measures that lead to each type of boiler explosion accident, wherein the types of accidents that lead to boiler explosions include at least: overpressure explosion and water shortage explosion; Determine at least one failure terminal that causes the failure of each measure, and the first probability of failure of each failure terminal; Determining a fourth probability of occurrence of each of the multiple measure failure causes leading to the boiler explosion of each accident type based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal leading to the measure failure cause; The product obtained by multiplying the fourth probabilities of each of the multiple measures failure reasons leading to the boiler explosion of one type of accident is used as the second probability of the boiler explosion leading to the accident type; Determine the impact parameters of inspection information on boiler explosion, wherein the inspection information at least includes regular inspection information, daily inspection information and inspection personnel information; Determine the product of the impact parameters of the multiple inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability as the third probability of the boiler explosion of each accident type; If the type of accident causing the boiler explosion is an overpressure explosion, the real-time pressure value of the boiler is determined; if the real-time pressure value is less than a preset pressure threshold, the real-time probability of the boiler having an overpressure explosion is a third probability; if the real-time pressure value is not less than the preset pressure threshold, the real-time probability of the boiler having an overpressure explosion is determined based on the third probability, the real-time pressure value and the preset pressure threshold; If the type of accident causing the boiler explosion is explosion due to lack of water, the real-time water level value of the boiler is determined; if the real-time water level value of the boiler is greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler exploding due to lack of water is the third probability; if the real-time water level value of the boiler is not greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler exploding due to lack of water is determined based on the third probability, the real-time water level value, the boiler pump start water level and the preset boiler minimum alarm water level.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Also includes: determining a current usage scenario of the boiler; Determining a current alarm threshold of the boiler based on the current usage scenario, wherein the alarm thresholds corresponding to the boiler are different when the boiler is in different usage scenarios; When the real-time probability reaches the alarm threshold, an alarm prompt is output.

3. A boiler safety evaluation system, characterized in that: include: A first determination unit is used to determine the accident type leading to the boiler explosion, and to determine the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each type of accident of the boiler explosion, wherein the accident type leading to the boiler explosion includes at least: overpressure explosion and water shortage explosion; A second determination unit is used to determine at least one failure terminal causing the failure of each measure, and a first probability of failure of each failure terminal; a third determination unit, configured to determine, based on a first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal causing the measure failure, a fourth probability of each of the multiple measure failure causes leading to the boiler explosion of each accident type; and to multiply the fourth probability of each of the multiple measure failure causes leading to the boiler explosion of one accident type by a product as a second probability of the boiler explosion of the accident type; The fourth determination unit is used to determine the influence parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion, where the inspection information at least includes regular inspection information, daily inspection information and inspection personnel information; the product of the influence parameters of the multiple inspection information on the boiler explosion and the second probability is determined as the third probability of the boiler explosion of each accident type; a fifth determination unit, configured to determine the real-time pressure value of the boiler if the accident type causing the boiler explosion is an overpressure explosion, and if the real-time pressure value is less than a preset pressure threshold, the real-time probability of the boiler having an overpressure explosion is a third probability; if the real-time pressure value is not less than the preset pressure threshold, determine the real-time probability of the boiler having an overpressure explosion based on the third probability, the real-time pressure value and the preset pressure threshold; The fifth determination unit is also used to determine the real-time water level value of the boiler if the accident type causing the boiler explosion is explosion due to lack of water; if the real-time water level value of the boiler is greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler exploding due to lack of water is a third probability; if the real-time water level value of the boiler is not greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler exploding due to lack of water is determined based on the third probability, the real-time water level value, the boiler pump start water level and the preset boiler minimum alarm water level.

4. The system according to claim 3, characterized in that Also includes: An output unit is used to determine the current usage scenario of the boiler, and determine the current alarm threshold of the boiler based on the current usage scenario, wherein the alarm thresholds corresponding to the boiler are different when the boiler is in different usage scenarios; when the real-time probability reaches the alarm threshold, an alarm prompt is output.

5. A boiler safety evaluation device, characterized in that: include: A processor is used to determine the type of accident leading to the boiler explosion, and to determine the failure reasons of multiple measures leading to each type of boiler explosion accident, wherein the types of accidents leading to the boiler explosion include at least: overpressure explosion and water shortage explosion; determine at least one failure terminal leading to each measure failure reason, and a first probability of failure of each failure terminal; based on the first probability of failure of at least one failure terminal leading to the measure failure reason, determine the fourth probability of each measure failure reason among the multiple measure failure reasons leading to the boiler explosion of each accident type; multiply the fourth probability of each measure failure reason among the multiple measure failure reasons leading to the boiler explosion of one accident type as the second probability of the boiler explosion of the accident type; determine the influence parameter of the inspection information on the boiler explosion, wherein the inspection information includes at least regular inspection information, daily inspection information and inspection personnel information; and respectively apply the multiple inspection information to the boiler The product of the influencing parameter of the boiler explosion and the second probability is determined as the third probability of the occurrence of a boiler explosion for each type of accident; if the accident type causing the boiler explosion is an overpressure explosion, the real-time pressure value of the boiler is determined. If the real-time pressure value is less than the preset pressure threshold, the real-time probability of the overpressure explosion of the boiler is the third probability; if the real-time pressure value is not less than the preset pressure threshold, the real-time probability of the overpressure explosion of the boiler is determined based on the third probability, the real-time pressure value and the preset pressure threshold; if the accident type causing the boiler explosion is a water shortage explosion, the real-time water level value of the boiler is determined; if the real-time water level value of the boiler is greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler explosion due to water shortage is the third probability; if the real-time water level value of the boiler is not greater than the preset boiler pump start water level, the real-time probability of the boiler explosion due to water shortage is determined based on the third probability, the real-time water level value, the boiler pump start water level and the preset boiler minimum alarm water level; The memory stores a program for the processor to execute the above processing process.

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