A method and device for predicting output ramp rate of photovoltaic power station during solar eclipse

Abstract

The present invention relates to a method and device for predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse, comprising: obtaining a total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of a photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period; assuming the future solar eclipse period to be a clear sky period, and obtaining a clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period; determining a total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period based on the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period; determining an output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period based on the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period; the output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse predicted by the present invention can provide an accurate judgment basis for reflecting the impact of the solar eclipse on the output of the photovoltaic power station.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic output prediction, and in particular to a method and device for predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse. Background Art

[0002] Photovoltaic power generation is a relatively mature and widely used type of power generation in the field of new energy technology. The challenges and impacts of large-scale photovoltaic power generation on the power grid mainly come from the rapid and deep fluctuations in short-term output, which requires sufficient backup regulation from the power grid to maintain grid security.

[0003] A solar eclipse is a relatively rare celestial phenomenon. The impact radius of a solar eclipse is usually similar to the equatorial radius. The impact ratio of different solar eclipse processes on the total land radiation can reach up to about 99%, making it one of the most extreme natural events affecting photovoltaic power generation. When a solar eclipse occurs, it is easy to cause a global mutation in large-scale photovoltaic power generation. Therefore, when a solar eclipse occurs, it is necessary to promptly determine the impact of the solar eclipse on the power grid and take corresponding measures to avoid serious losses to the power grid caused by the solar eclipse. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and device for predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse. By predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse, an accurate judgment basis is provided for reflecting the impact of the solar eclipse on the output of the photovoltaic power station.

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is achieved by adopting the following technical solutions:

[0006] The present invention provides a method for predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse, the improvement of which is that it includes:

[0007] Obtain the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period;

[0008] Assuming the future solar eclipse period as a clear sky period, obtain the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period;

[0009] Determine the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period;

[0010] According to the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period is determined.

[0011] Preferably, the step of obtaining a predicted sequence of the total radiation attenuation rate of a photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period includes:

[0012] Based on the predicted values ​​of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station corresponding to the first phase of the solar eclipse, the maximum phase of the solar eclipse, and the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, the cubic spline interpolation method is used to obtain the predicted sequence of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period.

[0013] Preferably, assuming that the future solar eclipse period is a clear sky period, and obtaining the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period includes:

[0014] The total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period without the solar eclipse corresponding to the period when the solar eclipse will occur in the future is used as the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the clear sky period.

[0015] Preferably, the method of determining the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period comprises:

[0016] Determine the predicted total radiation value I of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment during the future solar eclipse period as follows t :

[0017] I t =I t,Q D t

[0018] In the formula, I t,Q D is the predicted total radiation value of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the clear sky period. t is the predicted value of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period.

[0019] Preferably, the step of determining the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period includes:

[0020] Substituting the total radiation prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period into the pre-established total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station, the output prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period is obtained;

[0021] Based on the output prediction value P of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period t , the predicted value r of the output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period is determined by the following formula t :

[0022] r t =(P t-P t-1 ) / Δt

[0023] Where P t-1 is the output forecast value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-1th moment in the future solar eclipse period, Δt is the time interval, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period, among which, when t=1, P t-1 It is the output at the moment before the first contact of a future solar eclipse.

[0024] Furthermore, the process of obtaining the pre-established total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station includes:

[0025] Linear fitting is performed on the total radiation sequence and output sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period to obtain the pre-obtained total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station.

[0026] Preferably, the method of assuming that the future solar eclipse period is a clear sky period and obtaining the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period also includes:

[0027] According to the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period is determined;

[0028] According to the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate change multiple prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period is determined.

[0029] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a device for predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse, the improvement of which is that it includes:

[0030] The first acquisition unit is used to obtain a total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period;

[0031] The second acquisition unit is used to assume that the period of solar eclipse in the future is a clear sky period, and to obtain the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period;

[0032] The third acquisition unit is used to determine the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period;

[0033] The fourth acquisition unit is used to determine the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period.

[0034] Preferably, the first acquiring unit is specifically configured to:

[0035] Based on the predicted values ​​of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station corresponding to the first phase of the solar eclipse, the maximum phase of the solar eclipse, and the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, the cubic spline interpolation method is used to obtain the predicted sequence of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period.

[0036] Preferably, the second acquiring unit is specifically used to:

[0037] The total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period without the solar eclipse corresponding to the period when the solar eclipse will occur in the future is used as the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the clear sky period.

[0038] Preferably, the third acquisition unit is specifically used to:

[0039] Determine the predicted total radiation value I of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment during the future solar eclipse period as follows t :

[0040] I t =I t,Q D t

[0041] In the formula, I t,Q D is the predicted total radiation value of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the clear sky period. t is the predicted value of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period.

[0042] Preferably, the fourth acquiring unit is specifically used for:

[0043] Substituting the total radiation prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period into the pre-established total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station, the output prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period is obtained;

[0044] Based on the output prediction value P of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period t , the predicted value r of the output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period is determined by the following formula t :

[0045] r t =(P t -P t-1 ) / Δt

[0046] Where P t-1is the output forecast value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-1th moment in the future solar eclipse period, Δt is the time interval, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period, among which, when t=1, P t-1 It is the output at the moment before the first contact of a future solar eclipse.

[0047] Furthermore, the process of obtaining the pre-established total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station includes:

[0048] Linear fitting is performed on the total radiation sequence and output sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period to obtain the pre-obtained total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station.

[0049] Preferably, the device further includes: a fifth acquisition unit, specifically configured to:

[0050] According to the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period is determined;

[0051] According to the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate change multiple prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period is determined.

[0052] Compared with the closest prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0053] The present invention relates to a method and device for predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse, which obtains a total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of a photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period; assumes the future solar eclipse period to be a clear sky period, and obtains a clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period; determines a total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period based on the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period; determines an output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period based on the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period; the output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period predicted by the present invention can provide an accurate judgment basis for reflecting the impact of the solar eclipse on the output of the photovoltaic power station;

[0054] Among them, cubic spline interpolation is used to process the three total radiation attenuation rates in the future solar eclipse period predicted by astronomy to obtain the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the future solar eclipse period, laying the foundation for improving the accuracy of subsequent prediction climbing rate.

[0055] The total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station is obtained by using the historical data of the photovoltaic power station. The processing method is simple and effective, which improves the data processing rate.

[0056] On the basis of predicting the climbing rate, further predicting the climbing rate change ratio can more intuitively reflect the impact of the solar eclipse on the output of the photovoltaic power station. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0057] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse according to the present invention;

[0058] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of a device for predicting output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse according to the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0059] The specific implementation modes of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0060] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0061] Example 1

[0062] The present invention provides a method for predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse. Figure 1 As shown, including:

[0063] Step 1. Obtain the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period;

[0064] Step 2. Assume that the period of solar eclipse in the future is a clear sky period, and obtain the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period;

[0065] Step 3. Determine the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period;

[0066] Step 4. According to the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, determine the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period.

[0067] In an embodiment of the present invention, the above step 1 includes:

[0068] Obtain the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, including:

[0069] Based on the predicted values ​​of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station corresponding to the first contact moment, the maximum eclipse moment and the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, the cubic spline interpolation method is used to obtain the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, among which the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station corresponding to the first contact moment and the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station corresponding to the maximum eclipse moment are both 0, and the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station corresponding to the maximum eclipse moment is the maximum attenuation rate during the solar eclipse period.

[0070] In the embodiment of the present invention, the above step 2 assumes that the future solar eclipse period is a clear sky period, and obtains the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, including:

[0071] The total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period without the solar eclipse corresponding to the period when the solar eclipse will occur in the future is used as the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the clear sky period.

[0072] In an embodiment of the present invention, the above step 3 determines the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, including:

[0073] Determine the predicted total radiation value I of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment during the future solar eclipse period as follows t :

[0074] I t =I t,Q D t

[0075] In the formula, I t,Q D is the predicted total radiation value of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the clear sky period. t is the predicted value of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period.

[0076] In an embodiment of the present invention, the above step 4 determines the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, including:

[0077] Substituting the total radiation prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period into the pre-established total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station, the output prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period is obtained;

[0078] Based on the output prediction value P of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period t, the predicted value r of the output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period is determined by the following formula t :

[0079] r t =(P t -P t-1 ) / Δt

[0080] Where P t-1 is the output forecast value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-1th moment in the future solar eclipse period, Δt is the time interval, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period, among which, when t=1, P t-1 It is the output at the moment before the first contact of a future solar eclipse.

[0081] Specifically, the process of obtaining the total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station established in advance includes:

[0082] Linear fitting is performed on the total radiation sequence and output sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period to obtain the pre-obtained total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station.

[0083] In the embodiment of the present invention, the above-mentioned assumption that the future solar eclipse period is a clear sky period, and after obtaining the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, it also includes:

[0084] According to the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period is determined;

[0085] According to the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate change multiple prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period is determined.

[0086] The above-mentioned method of determining the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period according to the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period includes: substituting the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period into the total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station established in advance to obtain the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period;

[0087] According to the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate change rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period is determined, including:

[0088] The predicted value η of the output ramp rate change ratio of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment during the future solar eclipse period is determined by the following formula:

[0089]

[0090] In the formula, r t is the predicted value of the output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment during the future solar eclipse period, r t ′ is the predicted value of the output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the clear sky period.

[0091] Example 2

[0092] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a device for predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station under the influence of a solar eclipse. Figure 2 As shown, including:

[0093] An acquisition unit, used for acquiring a total radiation attenuation rate sequence of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse;

[0094] The first acquisition unit is used to obtain a total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period;

[0095] The second acquisition unit is used to assume that the period of solar eclipse in the future is a clear sky period, and to obtain the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period;

[0096] The third acquisition unit is used to determine the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period;

[0097] The fourth acquisition unit is used to determine the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period.

[0098] In an embodiment of the present invention, the first acquisition unit is specifically used to:

[0099] Based on the predicted values ​​of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station corresponding to the first phase of the solar eclipse, the maximum phase of the solar eclipse, and the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, the cubic spline interpolation method is used to obtain the predicted sequence of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period.

[0100] In an embodiment of the present invention, the second acquisition unit is specifically used to:

[0101] The total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period without the solar eclipse corresponding to the period when the solar eclipse will occur in the future is used as the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the clear sky period.

[0102] In an embodiment of the present invention, the third acquisition unit is specifically used to:

[0103] Determine the predicted total radiation value I of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment during the future solar eclipse period as follows t :

[0104] I t =I t,Q D t

[0105] In the formula, I t,Q D is the predicted total radiation value of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the clear sky period. t is the predicted value of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period.

[0106] In an embodiment of the present invention, the fourth acquisition unit is specifically used to:

[0107] Substituting the total radiation prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period into the pre-established total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station, the output prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period is obtained;

[0108] Based on the output prediction value P of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period t , the predicted value r of the output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period is determined by the following formula t :

[0109] r t =(P t -P t-1 ) / Δt

[0110] Where P t-1 is the output forecast value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-1th moment in the future solar eclipse period, Δt is the time interval, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period, among which, when t=1, P t-1 It is the output at the moment before the first contact of a future solar eclipse.

[0111] Furthermore, the process of obtaining the pre-established total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station includes:

[0112] Linear fitting is performed on the total radiation sequence and output sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period to obtain the pre-obtained total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station.

[0113] In an embodiment of the present invention, the above-mentioned device further includes: a fifth acquisition unit, specifically configured to:

[0114] According to the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period is determined;

[0115] According to the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate change multiple prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period is determined.

[0116] In summary, the present invention relates to a method and device for predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse, which obtains a total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of a photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period; assumes the future solar eclipse period to be a clear sky period, and obtains a clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period; determines a total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period based on the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period; determines an output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period based on the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period; the output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse period predicted by the present invention can provide an accurate judgment basis for reflecting the impact of the solar eclipse on the output of the photovoltaic power station;

[0117] Among them, cubic spline interpolation is used to process the three total radiation attenuation rates in the future solar eclipse period predicted by astronomy to obtain the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the future solar eclipse period, which lays the foundation for improving the accuracy of subsequent prediction climbing rate;

[0118] The total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station is obtained by using the historical data of the photovoltaic power station. The processing method is simple and effective, which improves the data processing rate.

[0119] On the basis of predicting the climbing rate, further predicting the climbing rate change ratio can more intuitively reflect the impact of the solar eclipse on the output of the photovoltaic power station.

[0120] Based on the prediction scheme of the present invention, users can timely determine the impact of a solar eclipse on the output of a photovoltaic power station and take active measures to cope with the impact of a solar eclipse on the power grid, so as to avoid serious losses to the power grid caused by a solar eclipse.

[0121] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented in one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that include computer-usable program code.

[0122] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0123] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0124] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0125] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents. Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the output ramp rate of photovoltaic power stations during a solar eclipse. It is characterized in that include: Obtain the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period; Assuming the period of solar eclipse in the future as a clear sky period, obtain the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period; Determine the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period; According to the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period is determined; Determining the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period includes: Substituting the total radiation prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period into the pre-established total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station, the output prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period is obtained; Based on the output prediction value P of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period t , the predicted value r of the output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period is determined by the following formula t : r t =(P t -P t-1 ) / Δt Where P t-1 is the output forecast value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-1th moment in the future solar eclipse period, Δt is the time interval, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period, among which, when t=1, P t-1 It is the output at the moment before the first contact of a future solar eclipse.

2. The method according to claim 1, It is characterized in that The method of obtaining a total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of a photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period includes: Based on the predicted values ​​of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station corresponding to the first phase of the solar eclipse, the maximum phase of the solar eclipse, and the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, the cubic spline interpolation method is used to obtain the predicted sequence of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period.

3. The method according to claim 1, It is characterized in that The process of assuming that the future solar eclipse period is a clear sky period and obtaining the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period includes: The total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period without the solar eclipse corresponding to the period when the solar eclipse will occur in the future is used as the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the clear sky period.

4. The method according to claim 1, It is characterized in that Determining the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period includes: Determine the predicted total radiation value I of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment during the future solar eclipse period as follows t : I t =I t,Q D t In the formula, I t,Q D is the predicted total radiation value of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the clear sky period. t is the predicted value of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period.

5. The method according to claim 1, It is characterized in that The process of obtaining the pre-established total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station includes: Linear fitting is performed on the total radiation sequence and output sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period to obtain the pre-obtained total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station.

6. The method according to claim 1, It is characterized in that After assuming that the future solar eclipse period is a clear sky period and obtaining the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the method further includes: According to the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period is determined; According to the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate change multiple prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period is determined.

7. A device for predicting the output ramp rate of a photovoltaic power station during a solar eclipse. It is characterized in that include: The first acquisition unit is used to obtain a total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period; The second acquisition unit is used to assume that the period of solar eclipse in the future is a clear sky period, and to obtain the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period; The third acquisition unit is used to determine the total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period according to the total radiation attenuation rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period; A fourth acquisition unit is used to determine a prediction sequence of output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period according to a prediction sequence of total radiation of the photovoltaic power station during a future solar eclipse period; The fourth acquisition unit is specifically used for: Substituting the total radiation prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period into the pre-established total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station, the output prediction value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-th moment in the future solar eclipse period is obtained; Based on the output prediction value P of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period t , the predicted value r of the output ramp rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period is determined by the following formula t : r t =(P t -P t-1 ) / Δt Where P t-1 is the output forecast value of the photovoltaic power station at the t-1th moment in the future solar eclipse period, Δt is the time interval, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period, among which, when t=1, P t-1 It is the output at the moment before the first contact of a future solar eclipse.

8. The device according to claim 7, It is characterized in that The first acquisition unit is specifically used to: Based on the predicted values ​​of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station corresponding to the first phase of the solar eclipse, the maximum phase of the solar eclipse, and the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period, the cubic spline interpolation method is used to obtain the predicted sequence of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period.

9. The device according to claim 7, It is characterized in that The second acquisition unit is specifically used to: The total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period without the solar eclipse corresponding to the period when the solar eclipse will occur in the future is used as the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the clear sky period.

10. The device according to claim 7, It is characterized in that The third acquisition unit is specifically used for: Determine the predicted total radiation value I of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment during the future solar eclipse period as follows t : I t =I t,Q D t In the formula, I t,Q D is the predicted total radiation value of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the clear sky period. t is the predicted value of the total radiation attenuation rate of the photovoltaic power station at the tth moment in the future solar eclipse period, t∈[1,T], T is the total number of moments in the future solar eclipse period.

11. The device according to claim 10, It is characterized in that The process of obtaining the pre-established total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station includes: Linear fitting is performed on the total radiation sequence and output sequence of the photovoltaic power station in the historical period to obtain the pre-obtained total radiation-output conversion function of the photovoltaic power station.

12. The device according to claim 7, It is characterized in that The device further includes: a fifth acquisition unit, specifically configured to: According to the clear sky total radiation prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period is determined; According to the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period and the output ramp rate prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the clear sky period, the output ramp rate change multiple prediction sequence of the photovoltaic power station during the future solar eclipse period is determined.

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