Subway station passenger flow prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The present application relates to a method, device, equipment and medium for predicting the passenger flow entering a subway station. The method includes: determining bus passengers who meet the first preset demand as the first target passengers, and determining subway passengers who meet the second preset demand as the second target passengers; for the departure point to the destination, according to the time the first target passenger takes to take the bus and the time he takes to take the subway line containing the new line station, determining the probability of inducing an increase in the first target passenger at the predicted station; according to the time the second target passenger takes to take the old line station and the time he takes to take the subway line containing the new line station, determining the probability of losing the second target passenger at the predicted station; according to the initial passenger flow entering the station to be predicted, the above-mentioned probability of inducing an increase and the number of the first target passengers induced, the above-mentioned probability of losing and the number of the second target passengers lost, determining the target passenger flow entering the station to be predicted. This method improves the accuracy of the prediction of passenger flow entering the station.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of intelligent transportation technology, and in particular to a method, device, equipment and storage medium for predicting passenger flow entering a subway station. Background Art

[0002] As an important mode of transportation, subway not only brings great convenience to people, but also brings great development and promotion to the national and regional economies. With the strong support of the country for the subway industry, various places are constantly increasing the construction of subways. More and more people are taking the subway, and more and more problems are coming with it. Especially with the opening of new lines, the structure of the entire line network has changed, and passengers have more and more travel options. Based on this, after the opening of the new line, it is of great significance to study the impact of the new line on the passenger flow of existing stations. Summary of the invention

[0003] The embodiments of the present application provide a method, device, equipment and storage medium for predicting the passenger flow entering a subway station, which can accurately predict the passenger flow entering an existing subway station under the influence of a new line.

[0004] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for predicting passenger flow entering a subway station, including:

[0005] Determine the departure and destination of each bus passenger and each subway passenger, determine the bus passengers who meet the first preset requirement as the first target passengers, and determine the subway passengers who meet the second preset requirement as the second target passengers; wherein the first preset requirement means that the destination includes a new line station and the departure includes an existing station or a transfer station that can reach the destination; the second preset requirement means that the departure includes a new line station that can reach the destination;

[0006] Determine the probability of inducing an increase in the number of passengers of the first target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger according to the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking a bus and the time taken by the subway line including the new line station to reach the destination from the departure place;

[0007] Determine the loss probability of the second target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger according to the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the old line station and the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station;

[0008] The target inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period is determined based on the initial inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period, the probability of inducing the first target passenger and the number of induced first target passengers of the station to be predicted, and the probability of losing the second target passenger and the number of lost second target passengers of the station to be predicted.

[0009] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a subway station passenger flow prediction device, comprising:

[0010] A screening module is used to determine the departure and destination of each bus passenger and each subway passenger, and determine the bus passengers who meet the first preset requirement as the first target passengers, and determine the subway passengers who meet the second preset requirement as the second target passengers; wherein the first preset requirement means that the destination includes a new line station and the departure includes an existing station or a transfer station that can reach the destination; the second preset requirement means that the departure includes a new line station that can reach the destination;

[0011] A first determination module is used to determine the probability of inducing an increase in the number of passengers of the first target passenger at the predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger based on the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking a bus and the time taken by the subway line including the new line station to reach the destination from the departure place;

[0012] A second determination module is used to determine the loss probability of the second target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger based on the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the old line station and the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station;

[0013] The prediction module is used to determine the target inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted within the corresponding time period based on the initial inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted within the corresponding time period, the probability of inducing the first target passenger at the station to be predicted and the number of induced first target passengers, and the probability of losing the second target passenger at the station to be predicted and the number of lost second target passengers.

[0014] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides an electronic device including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and when the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method for predicting passenger flow entering a subway station provided in the first aspect of the embodiment of the present application are implemented.

[0015] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for predicting passenger flow entering a subway station provided in the first aspect of the embodiment of the present application.

[0016] The technical solution provided by the embodiment of the present application can screen out the first target passengers, that is, the potential induced passengers under the influence of the new line, from the bus passengers, and determine the induced probability of the first target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger based on the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the bus and the time taken by the subway line containing the new line station; and can screen out the second target passengers, that is, the potential lost passengers under the influence of the new line, from the subway passengers, and determine the lost probability of the second target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger based on the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the old line station and the time taken by the subway line containing the new line station; and further determine the target inbound passenger flow of the to-be-predicted station in the corresponding time period based on the initial inbound passenger flow of the to-be-predicted station in the corresponding time period, the induced probability of the to-be-predicted station for the first target passenger and the number of induced first target passengers, the lost probability of the to-be-predicted station for the second target passenger and the number of lost second target passengers. In other words, comprehensive consideration is given to both the increase in passengers induced by the new line at existing stations and the diversion of passengers at existing stations, making the analysis of passenger flow into existing stations more detailed and improving the accuracy of passenger flow forecasts. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0017] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a method for predicting passenger flow entering a subway station provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0018] Figure 2 Another schematic diagram of a flow chart of a method for predicting passenger flow entering a subway station provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0019] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a structure of a subway station passenger flow prediction device provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0020] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0021] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present application more clear, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present application is further described in detail through the following embodiments and in combination with the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present application and are not used to limit the present application.

[0022] The technical solution provided in the embodiment of the present application is applied to the scenario of predicting the passenger flow at existing subway stations under the influence of new lines. After the opening of the new line, the structure of the entire subway network has changed, and passengers have more and more travel options. The new line can affect the passenger flow at which stations and how it affects them specifically. It has a very important reference value for the operation of the subway network. The technical solution provided in the embodiment of the present application can analyze the travel behavior of bus passengers and subway passengers respectively, accurately determine the probability of inducing bus passengers and the probability of losing subway passengers at the corresponding existing stations under the influence of the new line, and then comprehensively determine the passenger flow at the corresponding existing stations in combination with the corresponding induced probability and loss probability, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the passenger flow at the existing stations.

[0023] It should be noted that the execution subject of the following method embodiment may be a subway station inbound passenger flow prediction device, which may be implemented as part or all of the subway station inbound passenger flow prediction device through software, hardware, or a combination of software and hardware. Optionally, the subway station inbound passenger flow prediction device may be various types of electronic devices, and the electronic device may exchange information with external devices. Optionally, the subway station inbound passenger flow prediction device may be any one of a PDA (personal digital assistant), a PAD (tablet computer), a PMP (portable multimedia player), a vehicle-mounted terminal (such as a vehicle-mounted navigation terminal), a mobile phone, and a PC (personal computer). The following method embodiment is described by taking the execution subject as a subway station inbound passenger flow prediction device (hereinafter referred to as an electronic device) as an example.

[0024] At the same time, it should also be noted that before using the technical solutions disclosed in the embodiments of this application, the type, scope of use and usage scenarios of the personal information involved in this application have been informed to each passenger in an appropriate manner in accordance with relevant laws and regulations to obtain the authorization of each passenger.

[0025] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for predicting the passenger flow of a subway station provided in an embodiment of the present application. Figure 1 As shown, the method may include:

[0026] S101. Determine the departure place and destination of each bus passenger and each subway passenger, determine the bus passengers who meet the first preset demand as the first target passengers, and determine the subway passengers who meet the second preset demand as the second target passengers.

[0027] Among them, the first preset demand means that the destination includes a new line station and the departure point includes existing stations or transfer stations that can reach the destination, and the second preset demand means that the departure point includes a new line station that can reach the destination.

[0028] In this embodiment, bus passengers refer to passengers who travel by bus, and subway passengers refer to passengers who travel by subway. After the new line is opened, some bus passengers may change their travel mode from bus to subway due to the convenience of subway. In other words, these bus passengers will become potential induced passengers for the corresponding existing stations, that is, these bus passengers may increase the passenger flow of the corresponding existing stations. Therefore, it is necessary to screen out these bus passengers, that is, the first target passengers, from the bus passengers. The screening process of the first target passengers can be: determine the departure and destination of each bus passenger, and based on the surrounding subway information of the departure and destination, determine the bus passengers who meet the first preset requirements as the first target passengers. Specifically, the surrounding subway information of the departure and destination of the bus passenger can be obtained. For example, based on the preset search radius (such as 500 meters or 2 kilometers, etc.), search whether there are subway stations at the departure and destination. If there is a subway station at the destination, determine whether the subway station is a new line station. If so, further determine whether the existing station at the departure or the transfer station formed with the new line can reach the destination. If so, determine that the bus passenger is the first target passenger; if not, it means that the bus passenger cannot change from the previous pure bus travel mode to the subway travel mode, that is, the bus passenger is not the first target passenger. In this article, the transfer station refers to the existing station that becomes a transfer station due to the opening of a new line.

[0029] In an optional embodiment, the subway station corresponding to the departure place may be a transfer station, and the subway station corresponding to the destination may be a new line station. In another optional embodiment, the subway station corresponding to the departure place may be an existing station, and the subway station corresponding to the destination may be a new line station.

[0030] In specific applications, the departure and destination of bus passengers can be determined by combining the operator base station information and bus travel information. The operator base station information may include the base station identification, base station name, terminal identification waiting under the base station, etc. The bus travel information may include the bus route identification and bus route timetable, etc.

[0031] Similarly, after the opening of the new line, some subway passengers may change to the new line station to reach the destination because the new line station is more convenient. In other words, these subway passengers will become potential lost passengers corresponding to the existing stations, that is, these subway passengers may reduce the passenger flow of the corresponding existing stations. Therefore, it is necessary to screen out these subway passengers from the subway passengers, that is, the second target passengers. The screening process of the second target passengers can be: determine the departure and destination of each subway passenger, and determine the subway passengers who meet the second preset requirements as the second target passengers based on the surrounding subway information of the departure and destination. Specifically, the surrounding subway information of the departure and destination of the subway passengers can be obtained. For example, based on the preset search radius (such as 500 meters or 2 kilometers, etc.), search whether there is a new line station that can reach the destination at the departure. If it exists, the subway passenger can be determined as the second target passenger; if it does not exist, it means that the subway passenger cannot change the previous travel mode, that is, the subway passenger is not the second target passenger. In a specific application, the departure and destination of the subway passenger can be determined in combination with the operator information and the historical card swiping information of the subway passenger.

[0032] S102. Determine the probability of inducing an increase in the first target passenger by the predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger based on the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking a bus and the time taken by the subway line that includes the new line station.

[0033] Among them, the above-mentioned induced probability can be understood as the probability that the first target passenger reaches the destination by taking the subway line containing the new line station. After the first target passenger is screened out, the induced probability of the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger for the first target passenger can be determined from the time dimension. It can be understood that, compared with the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the bus, the shorter the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the subway line containing the new line station, the greater the induced probability of the to-be-predicted station for the first target passenger, and conversely, the longer the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the subway line containing the new line station, the smaller the induced probability of the to-be-predicted station for the first target passenger.

[0034] S103. Determine the loss probability of the second target passenger at the predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger based on the time taken for the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the old line station and the time taken for the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station.

[0035] Among them, the above-mentioned loss probability can be understood as the probability that the second target passenger reaches the destination from the departure place without taking the old line station. After screening the second target passengers, the loss probability of the second target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger can be determined from the time dimension. It can be understood that, compared with the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the old line station, the shorter the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the subway line containing the new line station, the greater the loss probability of the second target passenger at the to-be-predicted station. Conversely, the longer the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the subway line containing the new line station, the smaller the loss probability of the second target passenger at the to-be-predicted station.

[0036] S104, determine the target inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period based on the initial inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period, the probability of inducing the first target passenger at the station to be predicted and the number of induced first target passengers, and the probability of losing the second target passenger at the station to be predicted and the number of lost second target passengers.

[0037] Among them, the initial inbound passenger flow refers to the inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period without the influence of the new line. The corresponding time period can be determined based on the time when bus passengers take the bus or the time when subway passengers take the old line station, for example, a period of time based on the boarding time of bus passengers. Optionally, the historical inbound information of the station to be predicted every day in the historical time period can be determined based on the historical card swiping information, and then the inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted on each day and each time period in the historical time period can be obtained, and then the initial inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period is obtained. The target inbound passenger flow refers to the inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted under the influence of the new line in the corresponding time period.

[0038] After obtaining the probability of inducing each first target passenger and the probability of losing each second target passenger at the station to be predicted, the electronic device can determine the target inbound passenger flow station_in_flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period by the following formula 1 or a variation of formula 1.

[0039] Formula 1:

[0040]

[0041] Among them, normal_predict_flow is the initial passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period, induced_probability iis the probability of inducing the first target passenger at the predicted station, M is the number of induced first target passengers, shunt_probability j is the loss probability of the jth second target passenger at the predicted station, and N is the number of lost second target passengers.

[0042] Optionally, after obtaining the target passenger flow of the station to be predicted, if the target passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period exceeds a preset threshold, an early warning message is sent to the target terminal. Furthermore, a corresponding dispatching strategy can be generated and sent to the target terminal.

[0043] Among them, the target terminal can be understood as a handheld terminal or a large-screen terminal held by subway operators. When the target inbound passenger flow at the predicted station in the corresponding time period exceeds the preset threshold, the early warning mechanism is triggered, and the early warning information is sent to the target terminal to remind the relevant subway operators to formulate corresponding passenger flow control measures, such as adjusting the train timetable. Of course, the electronic device can also automatically generate the corresponding scheduling strategy and send the generated scheduling strategy to the target terminal to deal with the sudden increase in the inbound passenger flow at the predicted station.

[0044] The subway station inbound passenger flow prediction method provided in the embodiment of the present application can screen out the first target passengers, that is, the potential induced passengers under the influence of the new line, from the bus passengers, and determine the induced probability of the first target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger based on the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the bus and the time taken by the subway line containing the new line station; and can screen out the second target passengers, that is, the potential lost passengers under the influence of the new line, from the subway passengers, and determine the lost probability of the second target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger based on the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the old line station and the time taken by the subway line containing the new line station; and further determine the target inbound passenger flow of the to-be-predicted station in the corresponding time period based on the initial inbound passenger flow of the to-be-predicted station in the corresponding time period, the induced probability of the to-be-predicted station for the first target passenger and the number of the induced first target passengers, the lost probability of the to-be-predicted station for the second target passenger and the number of the lost second target passengers. In other words, comprehensive consideration is given to both the increase in passengers induced by the new line at existing stations and the diversion of passengers at existing stations, making the analysis of passenger flow into existing stations more detailed and improving the accuracy of passenger flow forecasts.

[0045] Figure 2Another flow chart of a method for predicting the passenger flow of a subway station provided in an embodiment of the present application is provided. This embodiment is specific based on the above embodiment. Figure 2 As shown, in this embodiment, the method may include:

[0046] S201. Determine the departure place and destination of each bus passenger and each subway passenger, determine the bus passengers who meet the first preset demand as the first target passengers, and determine the subway passengers who meet the second preset demand as the second target passengers.

[0047] Among them, the first preset demand means that the destination includes a new line station and the departure point includes existing stations or transfer stations that can reach the destination; the second preset demand means that the departure point includes a new line station that can reach the destination.

[0048] S202, obtaining the station congestion degree and the carriage congestion degree of the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger in the corresponding time period.

[0049] Among them, the station congestion can be understood as the ratio between the passengers in the station and the number of passengers that can be accommodated in the station, and the carriage congestion can be understood as the ratio between the passengers in the carriage and the number of passengers that can be accommodated in the carriage.

[0050] S203, determining the probability of inducing an increase in traffic of the to-be-predicted station for the first target passenger based on the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure point by taking a bus, the time taken by the subway line that includes the new line station to reach the destination from the departure point, the congestion in the station and the congestion in the carriage of the to-be-predicted station in the corresponding time period.

[0051] The electronic device may determine the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking a bus based on the first target passenger's historical bus travel information. Optionally, the process of determining the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking a subway line containing a new line station may be:

[0052] Step a1: Divide the subway line including the new line stations into a first line including only the old line stations and a second line including only the new line stations.

[0053] Step b1: based on historical passenger flow data of a first line, determining a first time when a first target passenger passes through the first line.

[0054] Among them, the electronic device counts the time it takes for historical subway passengers to pass through the first line based on the historical passenger flow data of the first line, and obtains the corresponding time list [(t11,nunber11),(t12,nunber12),…(t1m,nunber1m)], wherein the time list includes the time it takes for historical subway passengers to pass through the first line and the corresponding number of historical subway passengers, that is, (t1m,nunber1m) means that a number of "nunber1m" historical subway passengers pass through the first line and spend the time "t1m". Further, based on the time list, the first time when the first target passenger passes through the first line is estimated. For example, each time in the time list and the corresponding number of historical subway passengers are weighted to obtain the first time when the first target passenger passes through the first line.

[0055] Step c1: determining a second time when the first target passenger passes through the second route based on the departure time of the starting station in the second route and the arrival time of the destination station in the second route.

[0056] The second route includes a starting station and a destination station, and the difference between the arrival time of the destination station and the departure time of the starting station is determined as the second time when the first target passenger passes through the second route.

[0057] Step d1, obtaining the transfer time between the old line station and the new line station and the third time when the first target passenger arrives at the station corresponding to the departure place.

[0058] The transfer time between the old line station and the new line station can be preset, for example, the transfer time between the old line station and the new line station is set to 2 minutes. In this embodiment, the station corresponding to the above-mentioned departure place is the station to be predicted, and based on the travel mode of the first target passenger from the departure place to the station to be predicted, the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the station to be predicted from the departure place by the travel mode can be determined as the third time for the first target passenger to arrive at the station to be predicted.

[0059] Step e1: Based on the first time, the second time, the transfer time and the third time, determine the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure point via the subway line including the new line station.

[0060] Among them, after obtaining the first time, the second time, the third time and the transfer time, the sum of the first time, the second time, the third time and the transfer time is determined as the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure point by taking the subway line that includes the new line station.

[0061] In one embodiment, the above S203 may include: determining a first time ratio between the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via a subway line including a new line station and the time taken by taking a bus from the departure place to the destination; determining a first weight corresponding to the first time ratio; determining a second weight corresponding to the time taken by taking a bus from the departure place to the destination; based on the first weight, the second weight, the congestion in the station and the congestion in the carriage of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period, determining the probability of inducing an increase in the first target passenger by the station to be predicted.

[0062] Specifically, after obtaining the first time ratio, the electronic device may determine a first weight A corresponding to the first time ratio based on the following formula 2 or a variation of formula 2.

[0063] Formula 2:

[0064] Among them, rate1 is the first time ratio, a is a preset weight parameter, and optionally, a can be 0.7.

[0065] After obtaining the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the bus, the electronic device can determine the second weight B corresponding to the time based on the following formula 3 or a variation of formula 3.

[0066] Formula 3:

[0067] Among them, t gj is the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the bus, b1 and b2 are preset time parameters, optionally, b1 can be 40 minutes, and b2 can be 5 minutes.

[0068] After obtaining the first weight value A and the second weight value B, the electronic device can further determine the induced probability induced_probability of the predicted station for the first target passenger by using Formula 4 or a variation of Formula 4. i .

[0069] Formula 4:

[0070] Among them, in_station_number is the congestion in the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period, and mero_congestion is the congestion in the carriage of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period.

[0071] S204. Determine the loss probability of the second target passenger at the predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger based on the time taken for the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the old line station and the time taken for the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station.

[0072] Among them, the electronic device can determine the time it takes for the second target passenger to reach the destination by taking the old line station based on the historical card swiping information of the second target passenger (i.e., the entry time and exit time), and obtain the time it takes for the second target passenger to reach the old line station (i.e., the station to be predicted) from the departure place, and determine the sum of the time it takes for the second target passenger to reach the destination from the old line station and the time it takes from the departure place to reach the old line station as the time it takes for the second target passenger to reach the destination by taking the old line station.

[0073] Optionally, the process of determining the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station may be:

[0074] Step a2: Divide the subway line including the new line stations into a first line including only the old line stations and a second line including only the new line stations.

[0075] Step b2: based on the historical passenger flow data of the first line, determine the first time when the second target passenger passes through the first line.

[0076] The electronic device calculates the time taken by historical subway passengers to pass through the first line based on the historical passenger flow data of the first line, and obtains a corresponding time list [(t11,nunber11), (t12,nunber12), ... (t1m,nunber1m)], wherein the time list includes the time taken by historical subway passengers to pass through the first line and the corresponding number of historical subway passengers. Further, the first time when the second target passenger passes through the first line is estimated based on the time list. For example, each time in the time list and the corresponding number of historical subway passengers are weighted to obtain the first time when the second target passenger passes through the first line.

[0077] Step c2: determining a second time for a second target passenger to pass through the second route based on the departure time of the starting station in the second route and the arrival time of the destination station in the second route.

[0078] The second route includes a starting station and a destination station, and the difference between the arrival time of the destination station and the departure time of the starting station is determined as the second time when the second target passenger passes through the second route.

[0079] Step d2, obtaining the transfer time between the old line station and the new line station and the third time when the second target passenger arrives at the station corresponding to the departure place.

[0080] The transfer time between the old line station and the new line station can be preset, for example, the transfer time between the old line station and the new line station is set to 2 minutes. In this embodiment, the station corresponding to the departure place is the new line station, and the electronic device can determine the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the new line station from the departure place by the travel mode as the third time for the second target passenger to arrive at the new line station based on the travel mode of the second target passenger from the departure place to the new line station.

[0081] Step e2: based on the first time, the second time, the transfer time and the third time, determine the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station.

[0082] Among them, after obtaining the first time, the second time, the third time and the transfer time, the sum of the first time, the second time, the third time and the transfer time is determined as the time taken for the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure point via the subway line including the new line station.

[0083] Optionally, after obtaining the time taken for the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the old line station and the time taken for the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station, the electronic device can determine a second time ratio between the time taken for the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station and the time taken for the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the old line station, determine a third weight corresponding to the second time ratio, and determine the third weight as the loss probability of the second target passenger at the predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger.

[0084] It should be noted that the electronic device may determine the third weight corresponding to the second time ratio by referring to the above formula 2 or a variation of formula 2, and this embodiment will not be described in detail herein.

[0085] S205. Determine the target inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period based on the initial inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period, the probability of inducing the first target passenger and the number of induced first target passengers of the station to be predicted, and the probability of losing the second target passenger and the number of lost second target passengers of the station to be predicted.

[0086] In this embodiment, the probability of inducing an increase in the first target passenger at the predicted station is measured by multiple dimensions such as the station congestion, the carriage congestion, the first target passenger's bus ride time, and the ratio of subway ride time to bus ride time, so that the prediction of the passenger flow entering the predicted station is more accurate and reliable. At the same time, the ratio of the second target passenger's new line ride time to the old line ride time is used to measure the diversion of the new line to the predicted station, which fully considers the passenger induction of the new line to the existing station and the passenger diversion of the new line to the existing station, making the analysis of the passenger flow entering the existing station more refined and improving the accuracy of the passenger flow prediction.

[0087] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a structure of a subway station passenger flow prediction device provided in an embodiment of the present application. Figure 3 As shown, the device may include: a screening module 301 , a first determination module 302 , a second determination module 303 and a prediction module 304 .

[0088] Specifically, the screening module 301 is used to determine the departure and destination of each bus passenger and each subway passenger, determine the bus passengers who meet the first preset requirement as the first target passengers, and determine the subway passengers who meet the second preset requirement as the second target passengers; wherein, the first preset requirement means that the destination includes a new line station and the departure includes an existing station or a transfer station that can reach the destination; the second preset requirement means that the departure includes a new line station that can reach the destination;

[0089] The first determination module 302 is used to determine the probability of inducing an increase in the number of stations to be predicted corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger for the first target passenger based on the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking a bus and the time taken by the subway line containing the new line station from the departure place to the destination;

[0090] The second determination module 303 is used to determine the loss probability of the second target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger according to the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the old line station and the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station;

[0091] The prediction module 304 is used to determine the target inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted within the corresponding time period based on the initial inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted within the corresponding time period, the probability of inducing the first target passenger at the station to be predicted and the number of induced first target passengers, and the probability of losing the second target passenger at the station to be predicted and the number of lost second target passengers.

[0092] The subway station inbound passenger flow prediction device provided in the embodiment of the present application can screen out the first target passengers, that is, the potential induced passengers under the influence of the new line, from the bus passengers, and determine the induced probability of the first target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger based on the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the bus and the time taken by the subway line containing the new line station; and can screen out the second target passengers, that is, the potential lost passengers under the influence of the new line, from the subway passengers, and determine the lost probability of the second target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger based on the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the old line station and the time taken by the subway line containing the new line station; and then determine the target inbound passenger flow of the to-be-predicted station in the corresponding time period based on the initial inbound passenger flow of the to-be-predicted station in the corresponding time period, the induced probability of the to-be-predicted station for the first target passenger and the number of the induced first target passengers, the lost probability of the to-be-predicted station for the second target passenger and the number of the lost second target passengers. In other words, comprehensive consideration is given to both the increase in passengers induced by the new line at existing stations and the diversion of passengers at existing stations, making the analysis of passenger flow into existing stations more detailed and improving the accuracy of passenger flow forecasts.

[0093] Based on the above embodiment, optionally, the first determining module 302 may include an acquiring unit and a determining unit.

[0094] Specifically, the acquisition unit is used to acquire the station congestion and the carriage congestion of the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger in the corresponding time period;

[0095] The determination unit is used to determine the probability of inducing an increase in the number of passengers at the to-be-predicted site for the first target passenger based on the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure point by taking a bus, the time taken by the subway line that includes the new line station to reach the destination from the departure point, the congestion in the station and the congestion in the carriage at the to-be-predicted site in a corresponding time period.

[0096] Based on the above embodiment, optionally, the determination unit is specifically used to determine a first time ratio between the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line containing the new line station and the time taken by taking a bus to reach the destination from the departure place; determine a first weight corresponding to the first time ratio; determine a second weight corresponding to the time taken to reach the destination from the departure place by taking a bus; based on the first weight, the second weight, the congestion in the station and the congestion in the carriage of the to-be-predicted station in the corresponding time period, determine the probability of inducing an increase in the number of passengers by the to-be-predicted station for the first target passenger.

[0097] Based on the above embodiment, optionally, the second determination module 303 is specifically used to determine a second time ratio between the time taken for the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station and the time taken to reach the destination from the departure place via the old line station; determine a third weight corresponding to the second time ratio; and determine the third weight as the probability of loss of the second target passenger at the predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger.

[0098] On the basis of the above embodiment, optionally, the device further includes: a third determination module.

[0099] Specifically, the third determination module is used to divide the subway line including the new line station into a first line including only the old line stations and a second line including only the new line stations; based on the historical passenger flow data of the first line, determine the first time when the first target passenger or the second target passenger passes through the first line; based on the departure time of the starting station in the second line and the arrival time of the destination station in the second line, determine the second time when the first target passenger or the second target passenger passes through the second line; obtain the transfer time between the old line station and the new line station and the third time when the first target passenger or the second target passenger arrives at the station corresponding to the departure place; based on the first time, the second time, the transfer time and the third time, determine the time it takes the first target passenger or the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station.

[0100] Based on the above embodiment, optionally, the device further includes: a sending module.

[0101] Specifically, the sending module is used to send warning information to the target terminal when the target inbound passenger flow of the to-be-predicted station within the corresponding time period exceeds a preset threshold.

[0102] Based on the above embodiment, optionally, the sending module is further used to generate a corresponding scheduling policy and send the scheduling policy to the target terminal.

[0103] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application, such as Figure 4 As shown, the electronic device may include a processor 40, a memory 41, an input device 42, and an output device 43; the number of processors 40 in the electronic device may be one or more. Figure 4 A processor 40 is taken as an example; the processor 40, the memory 41, the input device 42 and the output device 43 in the electronic device can be connected by a bus or other means. Figure 4 The example of connecting through bus is taken in the following.

[0104] The memory 41, as a computer-readable storage medium, can be used to store software programs, computer executable programs and modules, such as the program instructions / modules corresponding to the subway station entry passenger flow prediction method in the embodiment of the present application (for example, the screening module 401, the first determination module 402, the first determination module 403 and the prediction module 404 in the subway station entry passenger flow prediction device). The processor 40 executes various functional applications and data processing of the electronic device by running the software programs, instructions and modules stored in the memory 41, that is, realizing the above-mentioned subway station entry passenger flow prediction method.

[0105] The memory 41 may mainly include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area may store an operating system and at least one application required for a function; the data storage area may store data created according to the use of the terminal, etc. In addition, the memory 41 may include a high-speed random access memory, and may also include a non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk storage device, a flash memory device, or other non-volatile solid-state storage device. In some instances, the memory 41 may further include a memory remotely arranged relative to the processor 40, and these remote memories may be connected to the device / terminal / server via a network. Examples of the above-mentioned network include, but are not limited to, the Internet, an intranet, a local area network, a mobile communication network, and combinations thereof.

[0106] The input device 42 may be used to receive input digital or character information and generate key signal input related to user settings and function control of the electronic device. The output device 43 may include a display device such as a display screen.

[0107] The present application also provides a storage medium including computer executable instructions, wherein the computer executable instructions are used to execute a method for predicting passenger flow entering a subway station when executed by a computer processor, the method comprising:

[0108] Determine the departure and destination of each bus passenger and each subway passenger, determine the bus passengers who meet the first preset requirement as the first target passengers, and determine the subway passengers who meet the second preset requirement as the second target passengers; wherein the first preset requirement means that the destination includes a new line station and the departure includes an existing station or a transfer station that can reach the destination; the second preset requirement means that the departure includes a new line station that can reach the destination;

[0109] According to the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking a bus and the time taken by the subway line including the new line station from the departure place to the destination, determine the probability of inducing the first target passenger to the predicted station corresponding to the departure place; according to the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place by taking the old line station and the time taken by the subway line including the new line station from the departure place to the destination, determine the probability of losing the second target passenger to the predicted station corresponding to the departure place;

[0110] The target inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period is determined based on the initial inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period, the probability of inducing the first target passenger and the number of induced first target passengers of the station to be predicted, and the probability of losing the second target passenger and the number of lost second target passengers of the station to be predicted.

[0111] Of course, the storage medium containing computer executable instructions provided in the embodiment of the present application is not limited to the method operations described above, and the computer executable instructions can also execute the relevant operations in the subway station passenger flow prediction method provided in any embodiment of the present application.

[0112] The subway station passenger flow prediction device, equipment and storage medium provided in the above embodiments can execute the subway station passenger flow prediction method provided in any embodiment of the present application, and have the corresponding functional modules and beneficial effects of executing the method. For technical details not described in detail in the above embodiments, please refer to the subway station passenger flow prediction method provided in any embodiment of the present application.

[0113] Through the above description of the implementation method, the technicians in the relevant field can clearly understand that the present application can be implemented with the help of software and necessary general hardware, and of course it can also be implemented by hardware, but in many cases the former is a better implementation method. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present application can be essentially or the part that contributes to the prior art can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as a computer floppy disk, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), flash memory (FLASH), hard disk or optical disk, etc., including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in each embodiment of the present application.

[0114] It is worth noting that in the embodiment of the above-mentioned search device, the various units and modules included are only divided according to functional logic, but are not limited to the above-mentioned division, as long as the corresponding functions can be achieved; in addition, the specific names of the functional units are only for the convenience of distinguishing each other, and are not used to limit the scope of protection of this application.

[0115] Note that the above are only preferred embodiments of the present application and the technical principles used. Those skilled in the art will understand that the present application is not limited to the specific embodiments described herein, and that various obvious changes, readjustments and substitutions can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the scope of protection of the present application. Therefore, although the present application is described in more detail through the above embodiments, the present application is not limited to the above embodiments, and may include more other equivalent embodiments without departing from the concept of the present application, and the scope of the present application is determined by the scope of the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for predicting passenger flow at a subway station, characterized in that: include: Determine the departure and destination of each bus passenger and each subway passenger, determine the bus passengers who meet the first preset requirement as the first target passengers, and determine the subway passengers who meet the second preset requirement as the second target passengers; wherein the first preset requirement means that the destination includes a new line station and the departure includes an existing station or a transfer station that can reach the destination; the second preset requirement means that the departure includes a new line station that can reach the destination; Obtain the station congestion and carriage congestion of the predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger in the corresponding time period; Determine a first time ratio between the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station and the time taken by the first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the bus; determining a first weight corresponding to the first time ratio; Determine a second weight corresponding to the time taken to reach the destination from the departure point by taking a bus; Determine the probability of inducing an increase in the first target passenger by the to-be-predicted station based on the first weight, the second weight, the congestion in the station and the congestion in the carriage of the to-be-predicted station in the corresponding time period; determining a second time ratio between the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure point via the subway line including the new line station and the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure point via the old line station; determining a third weight corresponding to the second time ratio; Determine the third weight as the probability of loss of the second target passenger at the predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger; The target inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period is determined based on the initial inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted in the corresponding time period, the probability of inducing the first target passenger and the number of induced first target passengers of the station to be predicted, and the probability of losing the second target passenger and the number of lost second target passengers of the station to be predicted.

2. The method according to any one of claims 1, characterized in that Determine the time it takes for the first target passenger or the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure point via the subway line that includes the new line station, including: Divide the subway line containing new line stations into a first line containing only old line stations and a second line containing only new line stations; Determining a first time when a first target passenger or a second target passenger passes through the first route based on historical passenger flow data of the first route; Determining a second time when the first target passenger or the second target passenger passes through the second route based on the departure time of the starting station in the second route and the arrival time of the destination station in the second route; Obtaining the transfer time between the old line station and the new line station and the third time when the first target passenger or the second target passenger arrives at the station corresponding to the departure place; Based on the first time, the second time, the transfer time and the third time, the time taken by the first target passenger or the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station is determined.

3. The method according to any one of claims 1, characterized in that Also includes: If the target inbound passenger flow of the to-be-predicted site within the corresponding time period exceeds a preset threshold, an early warning message is sent to the target terminal.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that Also includes: Generate a corresponding scheduling policy, and send the scheduling policy to the target terminal.

5. A subway station passenger flow prediction device, characterized in that: include: A screening module is used to determine the departure and destination of each bus passenger and each subway passenger, and determine the bus passengers who meet the first preset requirement as the first target passengers, and determine the subway passengers who meet the second preset requirement as the second target passengers; wherein the first preset requirement means that the destination includes a new line station and the departure includes an existing station or a transfer station that can reach the destination; the second preset requirement means that the departure includes a new line station that can reach the destination; The first determination module includes: An acquisition unit, used to acquire the station congestion degree and the carriage congestion degree of the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the first target passenger in the corresponding time period; a determining unit, configured to determine a first time ratio between the time taken by a first target passenger to reach a destination from a departure place via a subway line including a new line station and the time taken by a first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via a bus; determine a first weight corresponding to the first time ratio; determine a second weight corresponding to the time taken by a first target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via a bus; and determine the probability of the to-be-predicted station inducing an increase in the probability of the to-be-predicted station for the first target passenger based on the first weight, the second weight, the congestion level in the station and the congestion level in the carriage of the to-be-predicted station in a corresponding time period; The second determination module is used to determine a second time ratio between the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the subway line including the new line station and the time taken by the second target passenger to reach the destination from the departure place via the old line station; determine a third weight corresponding to the second time ratio; and determine the third weight as the loss probability of the second target passenger at the to-be-predicted station corresponding to the departure place of the second target passenger; The prediction module is used to determine the target inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted within the corresponding time period based on the initial inbound passenger flow of the station to be predicted within the corresponding time period, the probability of inducing the first target passenger at the station to be predicted and the number of induced first target passengers, and the probability of losing the second target passenger at the station to be predicted and the number of lost second target passengers.

6. An electronic device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 4 are implemented.

7. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 4 are implemented.

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