A low temperature antifreeze risk prediction system and method

Abstract

The present invention discloses a low temperature antifreeze risk prediction system and method, the system includes: an information collection module, a hazard assessment module, a risk assessment module and a prediction module; the information collection module is used to collect low temperature historical data and real-time meteorological data of daily temperature observations of national stations, and build a low temperature event library; the hazard assessment module is used to assess the hazard of low temperature events based on the low temperature event library; the risk assessment module is used to assess the risk of low temperature events based on low temperature historical data and low temperature event hazard; the prediction module is used to predict low temperature processes based on low temperature historical data and real-time meteorological data, and evaluate the hazard and risk of the predicted low temperature processes. This application introduces a variety of meteorological data and related data analysis, and realizes accurate assessment and timely prediction of the impact of different meteorological disasters through model establishment and training.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of meteorological monitoring and early warning, and in particular relates to a low-temperature antifreeze risk prediction system and method. Background Art

[0002] In summary, the occurrence of extreme weather events such as low temperature cold waves and high temperature heat waves in recent years has had a serious impact on human survival and production and life. Cold waves are a large-scale weather process that often triggers a variety of serious meteorological disasters. Traditional low temperature meteorological disaster prediction and assessment methods are mostly based on experience and rely on manual judgment. However, due to the complexity and suddenness of meteorological disasters, this method has many shortcomings, such as lack of accuracy and timeliness, resulting in poor disaster warning and emergency response effects. Summary of the invention

[0003] The present invention aims to solve the deficiencies of the prior art and proposes a low-temperature antifreeze risk prediction system and method, which evaluates the danger and risk of low-temperature events by building a low-temperature event library, constructs evaluation standards, predicts future low-temperature events, and evaluates and warns future low-temperature events based on the evaluation standards.

[0004] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following solutions:

[0005] A low temperature antifreeze risk prediction system, comprising: an information collection module, a hazard assessment module, a risk assessment module and a prediction module;

[0006] The information collection module is used to collect low temperature historical data and real-time meteorological data of daily temperature observations of national stations, and to build a low temperature event library;

[0007] The risk assessment module is used to assess the risk of low temperature events based on the low temperature event library;

[0008] The risk assessment module is used to assess the risk of a low temperature event based on the low temperature historical data and the danger of the low temperature event;

[0009] The prediction module is used to predict the low temperature process based on the low temperature historical data and the real-time meteorological data, and to evaluate the danger and risk of the predicted low temperature process.

[0010] Preferably, the information collection module comprises: an information collection unit and an event library construction unit;

[0011] The information collection unit is used to collect the historical data of daily temperature observations of the national station, and the low temperature historical data includes: low temperature time information, low temperature affected area information, low temperature affected site information, low temperature intensity information, population exposure to low temperature and economic exposure to low temperature;

[0012] The event library construction unit is used to construct the low temperature event library based on the low temperature time information, the low temperature affected area information, the low temperature affected site information and the low temperature intensity information.

[0013] Preferably, the risk assessment module comprises: a risk calculation unit, a first standardization processing unit, a first classification unit and an event risk assessment unit;

[0014] The hazard calculation unit is used to calculate the low temperature hazard value of a single station based on the low temperature event library;

[0015] The first standardization processing unit is used to perform standardization processing on the single-station low temperature hazard value to obtain a first standardized value;

[0016] The first grading unit is used to grade the first standardized value according to a first preset threshold value to obtain a risk level;

[0017] The event risk assessment unit is used to perform risk assessment on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library based on the risk level to obtain a low temperature event risk assessment index.

[0018] Preferably, the risk assessment module comprises: a risk calculation unit, a second standardization processing unit, a second classification unit and an event risk assessment unit;

[0019] The risk calculation unit is used to calculate the single-station low temperature risk value based on the single-station low temperature hazard value, the population exposure to low temperature and the economic exposure to low temperature;

[0020] The second standardization processing unit is used to perform standardization processing on the single-station low temperature risk value to obtain a second standardized value;

[0021] The second grading unit is used to grade the second standardized value according to a second preset threshold value to obtain a risk level;

[0022] The event risk assessment unit is used to perform risk assessment on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library based on the risk level to obtain a low temperature event risk assessment standard.

[0023] Preferably, the prediction module includes: a model building unit, a model training unit, a prediction unit and an evaluation unit;

[0024] The model building unit is used to build a neural network model;

[0025] The model training unit is used to train the neural network model based on the low temperature historical data to obtain a low temperature meteorological prediction model;

[0026] The prediction unit is used to predict low temperature events based on the real-time meteorological data and the low temperature meteorological prediction model to obtain future low temperature events;

[0027] The evaluation unit is used to perform hazard evaluation and risk evaluation on the future low temperature event based on the low temperature event hazard evaluation index and the low temperature event risk evaluation standard to obtain a prediction evaluation result.

[0028] The present invention also provides a low temperature antifreeze risk prediction method, which is applied to any of the above-mentioned early warning systems and comprises the following steps:

[0029] Collect low temperature historical data and real-time meteorological data from daily temperature observations at national stations, and build a low temperature event database;

[0030] Assessing the danger of low-temperature events therein based on the low-temperature event library;

[0031] Assessing the risk of a low temperature event based on the low temperature historical data and the danger of the low temperature event;

[0032] The low temperature process is predicted based on the low temperature historical data and the real-time meteorological data, and the danger and risk of the predicted low temperature process are evaluated.

[0033] Preferably, the method for assessing the risk of a low temperature event includes:

[0034] Calculating a single-station low-temperature hazard value based on the low-temperature event database;

[0035] Standardizing the low temperature hazard value of the single station to obtain a first standardized value;

[0036] Classify the first standardized value according to a first preset threshold value to obtain a risk level;

[0037] Based on the hazard level, a hazard assessment is performed on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library to obtain a low temperature event hazard assessment index.

[0038] Preferably, the method for evaluating the risk of a low temperature event includes:

[0039] Calculate the single-station low temperature risk value based on the single-station low temperature hazard value, the population exposure to low temperature, and the economic exposure to low temperature;

[0040] Standardizing the single-station low-temperature risk value to obtain a second standardized value;

[0041] Classifying the second standardized value according to a second preset threshold value to obtain a risk level;

[0042] Based on the risk level, a risk assessment is performed on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library to obtain a low temperature event risk assessment standard.

[0043] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0044] This application introduces a variety of meteorological data and related data analysis, and realizes accurate assessment and timely prediction of the impact of different meteorological disasters through model establishment and training. In addition, it has rapid response capabilities and can realize real-time warning and emergency response through real-time data collection and processing. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0045] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative labor.

[0046] Figure 1 Schematic diagram of the system structure of an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0047] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0048] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0049] Embodiment 1

[0050] In this embodiment, if Figure 1 As shown, a low-temperature antifreeze risk prediction system includes: an information collection module, a hazard assessment module, a risk assessment module and a prediction module.

[0051] The information collection module is used to collect low-temperature historical data and real-time meteorological data from daily temperature observations at national stations, and to build a low-temperature event database.

[0052] The information collection module includes: an information collection unit and an event library construction unit. The information collection unit is used to collect the historical data of daily temperature observations of national stations; the event library construction unit is used to build a low temperature event library based on low temperature time information, low temperature affected area information, low temperature affected station information and low temperature intensity information.

[0053] Among them, the low temperature historical data include: low temperature time information, low temperature affected area information, low temperature affected station information, low temperature intensity information, population exposure to low temperature and economic exposure to low temperature; the low temperature event database includes: (1) the start time and end time of the low temperature event; (2) the daily affected area, maximum affected area and average affected area of ​​the low temperature event; (3) the number of stations of the low temperature event; (4) single station information; (5) the average intensity of the low temperature event, comprehensive intensity, comprehensive intensity level and comprehensive intensity historical ranking; (6) event hazard value and hazard level; (7) risk value and risk level.

[0054] The hazard assessment module is used to assess the hazard of low-temperature events based on the low-temperature event library.

[0055] The hazard assessment module includes: a hazard calculation unit, a first standardization processing unit, a first classification unit and an event hazard assessment unit. The hazard calculation unit is used to calculate the low temperature hazard value of a single station based on the low temperature event library; the first standardization processing unit is used to perform standardization processing on the low temperature hazard value of a single station to obtain a first standardized value; the first classification unit is used to classify the first standardized value according to a first preset threshold value to obtain a hazard level; the event hazard assessment unit is used to perform hazard assessment on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library based on the hazard level to obtain a low temperature event hazard assessment index.

[0056] In this embodiment, the calculation method of the low temperature hazard value of a single station in the hazard calculation unit is shown in the following formula:

[0057]

[0058] in:

[0059] Single station daily minimum temperature index = abs(single station daily minimum temperature - abs(historical minimum temperature of all stations))

[0060] abs(·) is the absolute value of integers; the lowest temperature in history for all stations is -52.3℃ at station 50136 during the fifth cold air process in 1969;

[0061] The historical maximum low temperature intensity of all stations = max(the historical maximum low temperature intensity of station 1, the historical maximum low temperature intensity of station 2, ...)

[0062]

[0063]

[0064] Afterwards, the first standardization processing unit performs standardization processing on the obtained single-station low temperature hazard value to a value between 0 and 1; the first classification unit is used to classify the first standardized value according to the first preset threshold value to obtain a hazard level, wherein 50%, 70%, 85% and 95% are used as classification thresholds to classify the hazard level into five levels: low-lower-medium-higher-high; the event hazard assessment unit performs hazard assessment on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library based on the hazard level to obtain a low temperature event hazard assessment index:

[0065]

[0066] Among them, N5 is the number of high-risk sites, N4 is the number of relatively high-risk sites, N3 is the number of medium-risk sites, N2 is the number of relatively low-risk sites, and N1 is the number of low-risk sites.

[0067] The risk assessment module is used to assess the risk of low temperature events based on historical low temperature data and the hazard of low temperature events.

[0068] The risk assessment module includes: a risk calculation unit, a second standardization processing unit, a second classification unit and an event risk assessment unit. The risk calculation unit is used to calculate the single-station low temperature risk value based on the single-station low temperature hazard value, the population exposure to low temperature and the economic exposure to low temperature; the second standardization processing unit is used to standardize the single-station low temperature risk value to obtain a second standardized value; the second classification unit is used to classify the second standardized value according to a second preset threshold to obtain a risk level; the event risk assessment unit is used to perform risk assessment on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library based on the risk level to obtain a low temperature event risk assessment standard.

[0069] In this embodiment, the calculation method of the low temperature risk value of a single station in the risk calculation unit is as follows:

[0070]

[0071] Afterwards, the second standardization processing unit performs standardization processing on the obtained single-station low temperature risk value to a value between 0 and 1; the second grading unit is used to grade the first standardized value according to the first preset threshold value to obtain a risk level, wherein 50%, 70%, 85% and 95% are used as the grading thresholds to divide the risk level into five levels: low-lower-medium-higher-high; the event risk assessment unit performs risk assessment on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library based on the risk level to obtain the low temperature event risk assessment index:

[0072]

[0073] Among them, M5 is the number of high-risk sites, M4 is the number of relatively high-risk sites, M3 is the number of medium-risk sites, M2 is the number of relatively low-risk sites, and M1 is the number of low-risk sites.

[0074] The prediction module is used to predict the low temperature process based on the low temperature historical data and real-time meteorological data, and to evaluate the danger and risk of the predicted low temperature process.

[0075] The prediction module includes: a model construction unit, a model training unit, a prediction unit and an evaluation unit. The model construction unit is used to construct a neural network model. In this embodiment, the model construction unit selects a neural network with a depth of two layers to determine the neural network parameters and input functions to complete the construction of the neural network model; the model training unit is used to train the neural network model based on the low temperature historical data to obtain a low temperature meteorological prediction model. In this embodiment, the model training unit divides the low temperature historical data into a training set and a verification set, inputs the training set into the neural network model for training, and then uses the verification set to verify the accuracy of the trained neural network model. After successful verification, a low temperature meteorological prediction model is obtained; the prediction unit is used to predict low temperature events based on real-time meteorological data and the low temperature meteorological prediction model to obtain future low temperature events; the evaluation unit is used to perform hazard assessment and risk assessment on future low temperature events based on the low temperature event hazard assessment index and the low temperature event risk assessment standard to obtain a prediction assessment result.

[0076] Embodiment 2

[0077] A low temperature antifreeze risk prediction method comprises the following steps:

[0078] S1. Collect low temperature historical data and real-time meteorological data from daily temperature observations at national stations, and build a low temperature event database.

[0079] The historical data on low temperatures include: low temperature time information, low temperature affected area information, low temperature affected site information, low temperature intensity information, population exposure to low temperatures and economic exposure to low temperatures; a low temperature event database is constructed based on low temperature time information, low temperature affected area information, low temperature affected site information and low temperature intensity information.

[0080] S2. Evaluate the hazard of low temperature events based on the low temperature event database.

[0081] The low temperature hazard value of a single station is calculated based on the low temperature event library; the low temperature hazard value of the single station is standardized to obtain a first standardized value; the first standardized value is graded according to a first preset threshold to obtain a hazard level; based on the hazard level, a hazard assessment is performed on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library to obtain a low temperature event hazard assessment index.

[0082] S3. Assess the risk of low temperature events based on historical low temperature data and the hazard of low temperature events.

[0083] The low temperature risk value of a single station is calculated based on the low temperature hazard value of the single station, the population exposure to low temperature and the economic exposure to low temperature; the low temperature risk value of the single station is standardized to obtain a second standardized value; the second standardized value is graded according to a second preset threshold to obtain a risk level; based on the risk level, a risk assessment is performed on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library to obtain a risk assessment standard for low temperature events.

[0084] S4. Predict low-temperature processes based on historical low-temperature data and real-time meteorological data, and evaluate the danger and risk of the predicted low-temperature processes.

[0085] First, a neural network model is constructed; the neural network model is trained based on historical low-temperature data to obtain a low-temperature meteorological prediction model; low-temperature events are predicted based on real-time meteorological data and the low-temperature meteorological prediction model to obtain future low-temperature events; based on low-temperature event hazard assessment indicators and low-temperature event risk assessment standards, hazard assessment and risk assessment of future low-temperature events are performed to obtain prediction assessment results.

[0086] The embodiments described above are only descriptions of the preferred embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Without departing from the design spirit of the present invention, various modifications and improvements made to the technical solutions of the present invention by ordinary technicians in this field should all fall within the protection scope determined by the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A low temperature antifreeze risk prediction system, characterized in that: include: Information collection module, hazard assessment module, risk assessment module and prediction module; The information collection module is used to collect low temperature historical data and real-time meteorological data of daily temperature observations of national stations, and to build a low temperature event library; The risk assessment module is used to assess the risk of low temperature events based on the low temperature event library; The risk assessment module is used to assess the risk of a low temperature event based on the low temperature historical data and the danger of the low temperature event; The prediction module is used to predict the low temperature process based on the low temperature historical data and the real-time meteorological data, and evaluate the danger and risk of the predicted low temperature process; The information collection module includes: an information collection unit and an event library construction unit; The information collection unit is used to collect the historical data of daily temperature observations of the national station, and the low temperature historical data includes: low temperature time information, low temperature affected area information, low temperature affected site information, low temperature intensity information, population exposure to low temperature and economic exposure to low temperature; The event library construction unit is used to construct the low temperature event library based on the low temperature time information, the low temperature affected area information, the low temperature affected site information and the low temperature intensity information; The risk assessment module includes: a risk calculation unit, a first standardization processing unit, a first classification unit and an event risk assessment unit; The hazard calculation unit is used to calculate the single-station low-temperature hazard value based on the low-temperature event library: in: Single station daily minimum temperature index = abs(single station daily minimum temperature - abs(historical minimum temperature of all stations) abs(·) is the absolute value of integers; the lowest temperature in history for all stations is -52.3℃ at station 50136 during the fifth cold air process in 1969; The historical maximum low temperature intensity of all stations = max(the historical maximum low temperature intensity of station 1, the historical maximum low temperature intensity of station 2, The first standardization processing unit is used to perform standardization processing on the single-station low temperature hazard value to obtain a first standardized value; The first grading unit is used to grade the first standardized value according to a first preset threshold value to obtain a risk level; The event risk assessment unit is used to perform risk assessment on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library based on the risk level to obtain a low temperature event risk assessment index: Among them, N5 is the number of high-risk sites, N4 is the number of relatively high-risk sites, N3 is the number of medium-risk sites, N2 is the number of relatively low-risk sites, and N1 is the number of low-risk sites; The risk assessment module includes: a risk calculation unit, a second standardization processing unit, a second classification unit and an event risk assessment unit; The risk calculation unit is used to calculate the single-station low temperature risk value based on the single-station low temperature hazard value, the low temperature population exposure degree and the low temperature economic exposure degree: The second standardization processing unit is used to perform standardization processing on the single-station low temperature risk value to obtain a second standardized value; The second grading unit is used to grade the second standardized value according to a second preset threshold value to obtain a risk level; The event risk assessment unit is used to perform risk assessment on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library based on the risk level to obtain a low temperature event risk assessment standard: Among them, M5 is the number of high-risk sites, M4 is the number of relatively high-risk sites, M3 is the number of medium-risk sites, M2 is the number of relatively low-risk sites, and M1 is the number of low-risk sites; The prediction module includes: a model building unit, a model training unit, a prediction unit and an evaluation unit; The model building unit is used to build a neural network model; The model training unit is used to train the neural network model based on the low temperature historical data to obtain a low temperature meteorological prediction model; The prediction unit is used to predict low temperature events based on the real-time meteorological data and the low temperature meteorological prediction model to obtain future low temperature events; The evaluation unit is used to perform hazard evaluation and risk evaluation on the future low temperature event based on the low temperature event hazard evaluation index and the low temperature event risk evaluation standard to obtain a prediction evaluation result.

2. A low temperature antifreeze risk prediction method, the prediction method is applied to the prediction system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Collect low temperature historical data and real-time meteorological data from daily temperature observations at national stations, and build a low temperature event database; Assessing the danger of low-temperature events therein based on the low-temperature event library; Assessing the risk of a low temperature event based on the low temperature historical data and the danger of the low temperature event; The low temperature process is predicted based on the low temperature historical data and the real-time meteorological data, and the danger and risk of the predicted low temperature process are evaluated.

3. A low temperature antifreeze risk prediction method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The method for assessing the danger of a low temperature event includes: Calculating a single-station low-temperature hazard value based on the low-temperature event database; Standardizing the low temperature hazard value of the single station to obtain a first standardized value; Classify the first standardized value according to a first preset threshold value to obtain a risk level; Based on the hazard level, a hazard assessment is performed on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library to obtain a low temperature event hazard assessment index.

4. A low temperature antifreeze risk prediction method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The evaluation method of the low temperature event risk includes: Calculate the single-station low temperature risk value based on the single-station low temperature hazard value, the population exposure to low temperature, and the economic exposure to low temperature; Standardizing the single-station low temperature risk value to obtain a second standardized value; Classifying the second standardized value according to a second preset threshold value to obtain a risk level; Based on the risk level, a risk assessment is performed on the low temperature events in the low temperature event library to obtain a low temperature event risk assessment standard.

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