Transshipment port construction value simulation evaluation method and device

Abstract

The present invention provides a method and device for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port, which relates to the field of geographic information technology and is used to solve the technical problems that the potential excellent transshipment port construction area is difficult to determine due to the lack of quantification and spatial distribution of spatial grid scales in the evaluation indicators of traditional methods, as well as the inaccurate evaluation of the construction value of the transshipment port. The method includes: obtaining indicators that affect the construction value of the transshipment port in the target area, and constructing an indicator system for simulating and evaluating the construction value of the transshipment port under the future scenario of SSP5-RCP8.5 based on the indicators, considering the impact of future climate change on nature and socio-economics; determining the weights of indicators that characterize the importance of the construction value of the transshipment port; gridding the target area; projecting and transforming the spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system and unifying the resolution to a set grid framework, and spatially quantifying the indicators; simulating and obtaining the evaluation results of the construction value of the transshipment port based on the indicators and weights after spatial quantization.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of geographic information technology, and more specifically, to a method and device for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transit port. Background Art

[0002] With the development of geographic information technology, fuzzy mathematics and statistics, some spatial calculation methods such as analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and spatial distance calculation have been applied to the evaluation of the construction value of transit ports.

[0003] In the evaluation of the construction value of transshipment ports, based on the main framework of transshipment port evaluation and considering the main factors affecting the construction of transshipment ports, there are different evaluation systems according to different research objectives. After the evaluation system is established, the weights of different influencing factors in the evaluation system are determined mainly by using methods such as hierarchical analysis and fuzzy mathematics, and then the evaluation is carried out for specific ports; or the AHP method is directly used to compare the advantages and disadvantages of different influencing factors of each port to obtain a ranking. However, the current evaluation of transshipment ports lacks spatial calculations in the indicator design, mainly involving the port's own throughput, number of berths, soft power (new technology application capabilities, etc.), etc. The data obtained mainly come directly from the purchase of shipping companies or expert inquiries; and the attributes related to spatial location, such as the distance from the world's major shipping routes and the advantages and disadvantages of geographical location, are also mostly in the form of expert scoring, and the relative quantitative results are obtained by comparing the ports to be studied. This evaluation method is highly dependent on the experience of experts, and the intervention of subjective judgment will affect the accuracy of the results. In addition, current simulation assessments of the value of transshipment port construction are rarely displayed on a spatial grid, and are mainly evaluations of independent ports. This type of analysis will cause some potential excellent transshipment port construction sites (regions) in the future to be ignored.

[0004] Based on the above situation, there is an urgent need for a simulation and evaluation method for the construction value of transshipment ports based on grid units in future scenarios to determine the future construction value of transshipment ports in different shore sections and provide decision support. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of this, the present invention provides a method and device for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port. By introducing the natural environment and economic development environment data under the future scenario of SSP5-RCP8.5, the results are quantified on a spatial grid to obtain more accurate spatially quantitative transshipment port construction value evaluation results.

[0006] One aspect of the present invention provides a method for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port, comprising: obtaining indicators that affect the construction value of the transshipment port in a target area, and constructing an indicator system for simulating and evaluating the construction value of the transshipment port under the future scenario of SSP5-RCP8.5 according to the indicators; determining the weights of the indicators in the indicator system, wherein the weights represent the importance of each indicator relative to the construction value of the transshipment port; gridding the target area, wherein the grid is configured with a projection coordinate system and a specified grid size to match the resolution requirements; projecting and transforming the spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system and unifying the resolution to a set grid framework, and spatially quantizing the indicators; and simulating and obtaining the evaluation results of the construction value of the transshipment port according to the indicators and weights after spatial quantization.

[0007] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the index system includes primary indicators and secondary indicators, wherein determining the weights of the indicators in the index system includes: using a hierarchical analysis method to compare the relative importance of the primary indicators and the secondary indicators respectively; according to the relative importance, determining the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator respectively; and determining the comprehensive weight according to the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator.

[0008] According to an embodiment of the present invention, determining the relative weight of each first-level indicator and the relative weight of each second-level indicator respectively according to the relative importance includes: establishing a judgment matrix according to the relative importance, and calculating the weight vector and the maximum eigenvalue by using the sum-product method; based on the weight vector, obtaining the relative weight of each first-level indicator and the relative weight of each second-level indicator.

[0009] According to an embodiment of the present invention, determining the relative weight of each first-level indicator and the relative weight of each second-level indicator respectively according to relative importance also includes: performing a consistency check on each relative weight using the maximum eigenvalue; in response to passing the consistency check, determining the relative weight of each first-level indicator and the relative weight of each second-level indicator as available values.

[0010] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the comprehensive weight is calculated as follows:

[0011] W=W1*W2

[0012] Among them, W represents the comprehensive weight, W1 represents the relative weight of the first-level indicator, and W2 represents the relative weight of the second-level indicator.

[0013] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system are projected and converted and the resolution is unified to a set grid framework, and the indicators are spatially quantified, including: unifying the projection coordinate system and resolution of the indicators and setting them under the same grid framework; performing spatial analysis and calculation on the original spatial data according to the indicator description content to obtain calculation results; grading the calculation results using the ArcGIS natural break point grading method; and assigning values ​​to each graded indicator.

[0014] According to an embodiment of the present invention, simulating the evaluation result of the construction value of the transshipment port based on the spatially quantified indicators and weights includes: performing weighted superposition analysis based on the assignment result of each indicator and the comprehensive weight to simulate the evaluation result of the construction value of the transshipment port.

[0015] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the calculation method of the evaluation result of the construction value of the transit port is as follows:

[0016]

[0017] Among them, P represents the evaluation result, P i represents the evaluation score of the i-th indicator, W i Represents the comprehensive weight of i indicators, i=1,2,…8.

[0018] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the grid is configured as a grid of 1 km*1 km in size in a projection coordinate system.

[0019] Another aspect of the present invention provides a transshipment port construction value simulation and evaluation device, including: a construction module, used to obtain indicators that affect the transshipment port construction value in the target area, and construct an indicator system for simulating and evaluating the transshipment port construction value under the SSP5-RCP8.5 future scenario according to the indicators; a determination module, used to determine the weights of the indicators in the indicator system, wherein the weights represent the importance of each indicator relative to the transshipment port construction value; a division module, used to grid the target area, wherein the grid is configured with a projection coordinate system and a specified grid size to match the resolution requirements; a spatial quantization module, used to project and transform the spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system and unify the resolution to a set grid framework, and perform spatial quantization on the indicators; a simulation module, used to simulate and obtain the evaluation result of the transshipment port construction value according to the indicators and weights after spatial quantization.

[0020] The method and device for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transit port provided by the present invention have at least the following beneficial effects:

[0021] (1) According to the method for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port provided by the present invention, spatial field data is used, and the index values ​​are spatially quantified through GIS spatial calculation methods such as kernel density analysis and Euclidean distance analysis. Combined with the index weights obtained by the AHP method, the construction value of the transshipment port is simulated and evaluated at a grid scale, and the shore section with the highest value is analyzed. The GIS spatial calculation method and site selection analysis strategy are used to characterize spatially related indicators, reducing the uncertainty of the prediction results based only on expert experience and single port comparison. This method not only reasonably analyzes the impact of the surrounding environment on the construction of the transshipment port during the simulation, but also quantifies the value in the form of grid units in the region, and can generate rasterized product results, filling the gap in the search for potential excellent transshipment port construction areas in the future.

[0022] (2) According to the method for simulating and evaluating the value of transshipment port construction provided by the present invention, the natural environment and economic development data under the future SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario simulated by IPCC6 are used, and the disturbance impact of global climate change on the construction of transshipment ports is taken into account, thereby reducing the uncertainty of the evaluation model constructed only based on the nature of the port itself and the basic geographical environment for simulating the value of transshipment port construction over a long period of time in the future; the regional geographical characteristics related to the construction of transshipment ports are taken into account by using the distance index to the shipping strategic channel and the typhoon intensity index. This characteristic changes dynamically with different regions, and the model method can dynamically adapt to different regions. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0023] The above and other objects, features and advantages of the present invention will become more apparent through the following description of the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which:

[0024] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for simulating and evaluating the value of transshipment port construction according to an embodiment of the present invention is schematically shown;

[0025] Figure 2 Schematically shows a target area diagram according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0026] Figure 3 A diagram schematically shows a result of a simulation evaluation of the construction value of a transshipment port in a target area according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0027] Figure 4 A diagram schematically shows a simulation evaluation result diagram of the highest transshipment port construction value within a target area according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0028] Figure 5 A diagram schematically shows a simulation evaluation result diagram at the Bangkok Bay shore section according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0029] Figure 6A diagram schematically shows a simulation evaluation result diagram of the Pearl River Delta coast section according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0030] Figure 7 The structure block diagram of the device for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port according to an embodiment of the present invention is schematically shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0031] Below, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, it should be understood that these descriptions are exemplary only and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. In the following detailed description, for ease of explanation, many specific details are set forth to provide a comprehensive understanding of embodiments of the present invention. However, it is apparent that one or more embodiments may also be implemented without these specific details. In addition, in the following description, descriptions of known structures and technologies are omitted to avoid unnecessary confusion of concepts of the present invention.

[0032] The terms used herein are only for describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. The terms "comprise", "include", etc. used herein indicate the existence of the features, steps, operations and / or components, but do not exclude the existence or addition of one or more other features, steps, operations or components.

[0033] All terms (including technical and scientific terms) used herein have the meanings commonly understood by those skilled in the art unless otherwise defined. It should be noted that the terms used herein should be interpreted as having a meaning consistent with the context of this specification and should not be interpreted in an idealized or overly rigid manner.

[0034] When using expressions such as "at least one of A, B, and C, etc.", they should generally be interpreted according to the meaning of the expression commonly understood by those skilled in the art (for example, "a system having at least one of A, B, and C" should include but is not limited to a system having A alone, B alone, C alone, A and B, A and C, B and C, and / or A, B, C, etc.).

[0035] In the embodiments of the present invention, the collection, updating, analysis, processing, use, transmission, provision, disclosure, storage and other aspects of the data involved (for example, including but not limited to user personal information) are in compliance with the provisions of relevant laws and regulations, are used for legitimate purposes, and do not violate public order and good morals. In particular, necessary measures are taken for user personal information to prevent illegal access to user personal information data and maintain the security of user personal information, network security and national security.

[0036] In the embodiment of the present invention, SSP5-RCP8.5 future scenario: SSP5-RCP8.5 future scenario refers to one of the future scenario models proposed by the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report based on the SSP pathway and the expected radiative forcing level in 2100. In this scenario, climate change is severe, and global warming and carbon dioxide emissions are relatively severe. Using this scenario in the embodiment, the method and device can also be directly extended to other future scenarios to carry out calculations and obtain assessment results.

[0037] An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port, comprising: obtaining indicators that affect the construction value of the transshipment port in a target area, and constructing an indicator system for simulating and evaluating the construction value of the transshipment port under the future scenario of SSP5-RCP8.5 according to the indicators; determining the weights of the indicators in the indicator system, wherein the weights represent the importance of each indicator relative to the construction value of the transshipment port; gridding the target area, wherein the grid is configured with a projection coordinate system and a specified grid size to match the resolution requirement; projecting and transforming the spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system and unifying the resolution to a set grid framework, and spatially quantizing the indicators; and simulating and obtaining the evaluation result of the construction value of the transshipment port according to the indicators and weights after spatial quantization.

[0038] The method for simulating and evaluating the value of transshipment port construction provided by the present invention is based on basic geographic data such as global coastline data and global port data, as well as data of factors that need to be considered in calculating indicators such as some natural and economic data and typhoon intensity under the future scenario of SSP5-RCP8.5 predicted by the IPCC, and sets the spatial field data of the indicators in a grid framework of a unified projection coordinate system and resolution size, further spatially quantifies the indicator data through spatial analysis, calculates the weight of each indicator through the hierarchical analysis method, and obtains the final result of the evaluation of the value of transshipment port construction under the future scenario.

[0039] The present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with specific embodiments.

[0040] Figure 1 The flowchart of the method for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port according to an embodiment of the present invention is schematically shown.

[0041] like Figure 1 As shown, the method for simulating and evaluating the value of transshipment port construction includes operations S1 to S5.

[0042] S1: Obtain indicators that affect the value of transshipment port construction in the target area, and construct an indicator system for simulating and evaluating the value of transshipment port construction under the future scenario of SSP5-RCP8.5 based on the indicators.

[0043] In this embodiment, the target region can be set to Southeast Asia, for example, and the SSP5-RCP8.5 future scenario in 2050 is selected for simulation. The target region map of the present invention is shown in Figure 2 .

[0044] Figure 2 A target area diagram according to an embodiment of the present invention is schematically shown.

[0045] like Figure 2 As shown in the figure, in Southeast Asia, we can consider multiple factors to build an indicator system, specifically:

[0046] In terms of natural environmental conditions, the main consideration is the future sea level rise caused by global warming. The relative sea level rise will increase the maximum traffic capacity of the port channel. Existing ports can be upgraded on the existing basis to cope with the sea level rise, including expanding the port area and improving infrastructure. Transshipment ports are generally deep-water ports. The deep-water port channel has a deep water depth, which can accommodate large ships to enter the port for operation and play a better role in transshipment. In addition to the rise in sea level, the basic water depth determines the basic natural environmental conditions of the port. In addition, typhoons occur frequently in Southeast Asia, and the wind and waves are large, which will have an important impact on port operations and is also used as one of the indicators. In terms of economy, the development of transshipment ports requires the economic support of the city and economic hinterland where they are located. Economically developed regions have high levels of industrialization and informatization, and are more likely to build modern transshipment ports. GDP and population can better describe the level of economic and social development. Land use reflects the land use planning of the region and is a necessary condition for port development. In terms of geographical location, a good geographical location can bring location advantages to the development of transshipment ports. The shipping hubs in the region include the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait, the Lombok Strait, and the Taiwan Strait. At the same time, the port's monopoly in the region is also the basis for port development. In terms of the existing conditions of the port, the existing berth concentration and cargo transportation capacity are considered.

[0047] In this embodiment, the index system established is shown in Table 1:

[0048]

[0049] Table 1 Value analysis index system for the construction of transshipment ports in the Southeast Asian region under future scenarios

[0050] S2: Determine the weights of the indicators in the indicator system, where the weights represent the importance of each indicator relative to the value of the transshipment port construction.

[0051] According to an embodiment of the present invention, determining the weight of an indicator in the indicator system may specifically include operations S21 to S23:

[0052] S21: The relative importance of primary and secondary indicators was compared using the analytic hierarchy process.

[0053] S22: According to the relative importance, determine the relative weight of each first-level indicator and the relative weight of each second-level indicator respectively.

[0054] S23: Determine the comprehensive weight based on the relative weight of each first-level indicator and the relative weight of each second-level indicator.

[0055] According to an embodiment of the present invention, determining the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator according to the relative importance may further include operations S221 to S222:

[0056] S221: According to the relative importance, a judgment matrix is ​​established, and the weight vector and the maximum eigenvalue are calculated using the sum-product method.

[0057] S222: Based on the weight vector, obtain the relative weight of each first-level indicator and the relative weight of each second-level indicator.

[0058] According to an embodiment of the present invention, determining the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator according to the relative importance may also include operations S223 to S224:

[0059] S223: Use the maximum eigenvalue root to perform consistency check on each relative weight.

[0060] S224: In response to the consistency check passing, determining the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator as available values.

[0061] In this embodiment, the weights of the indicators in the indicator system are determined as follows:

[0062] The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the importance of different indicators using a 1-9 comparison scale. A judgment matrix was established, and the weight vector and the maximum eigenvalue were calculated using the sum-product method. The relative weights of each first-level indicator and each second-level indicator were obtained from the weight vector.

[0063] After obtaining the relative weights of each primary indicator and each secondary indicator, the calculated weights are checked for consistency using the maximum eigenvalue. Only weight values ​​that pass the consistency check are available, otherwise the weights need to be adjusted.

[0064] After the consistency check is passed, the weights of each primary indicator and each secondary indicator are determined to be usable values. In the consistency check, the calculation method of the consistency index (CI) can be, for example:

[0065]

[0066] The calculation method of the consistency ratio (CR) can be, for example:

[0067]

[0068] Among them, RI is related to the number of indicators involved in the calculation, n, and is determined by referring to the RI value reference table determined by Saaty (1987).

[0069] If CR is less than 0.1, the result meets the consistency test and is reasonable (if n=2, the consistency is directly judged); if CR is greater than 0.1, the judgment matrix needs to be readjusted until it meets the consistency test. Only the weight value that passes the consistency test is available, otherwise the weight size needs to be adjusted.

[0070] In this embodiment, the relative importance of the primary indicator to the construction value analysis target is considered when calculating the weight of the primary indicator, and the relative importance of the secondary indicator to the primary indicator is considered when calculating the weight of the secondary indicator.

[0071] If the weight of the first-level indicator is W1 and the weight of the second-level indicator is W2, the comprehensive weight W is:

[0072] W=W1*W2

[0073] The weights of system indicators are calculated using AHP according to the relative importance of the indicators to the previous level. The relative importance of indicators is determined based on existing literature and previous research. In actual operation, the weights can be fine-tuned with reference to the opinions of experts in the field, but the weights must ultimately comply with the consistency test of the AHP method.

[0074] S3: Meshing the target area, wherein the mesh is configured with a projection coordinate system and a specified mesh size to match the resolution requirement.

[0075] In this embodiment, grid division is performed in the candidate Southeast Asian region for transshipment port construction to be simulated and evaluated, and the length and width of the grid are the same. In order to make full use of future scenario data for more accurate simulation evaluation, the grid is configured as a grid of 1km*1km in size. At the same time, a unified coordinate system is set, and subsequent simulation analysis is performed under this grid.

[0076] S4: Project and transform the spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system and unify the resolution to the set grid framework to spatially quantify the indicator.

[0077] According to an embodiment of the present invention, spatial quantization of the indicator may specifically include operations S41 to S44:

[0078] S41: Unify the projection coordinate system and resolution of the indicators and set them under the same grid framework.

[0079] S42: Perform spatial analysis calculation on the original spatial data according to the indicator description content to obtain calculation results.

[0080] S43: The calculation results are classified using the ArcGIS natural break classification method.

[0081] S44: Assign a value to each index after classification.

[0082] In this embodiment, the above method is used to unify the spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system into a set grid framework, and then spatial analysis and calculation are carried out on some indicators and graded values ​​are assigned to complete the spatial quantification of the indicator data.

[0083] Specific spatial field data may include:

[0084] (1) Typhoon intensity index: Using the typhoon track data of the past 10 years, the kernel density spatial analysis method is used to perform density cluster analysis on the typhoon track points to obtain the analysis results of the typhoon intensity in the area.

[0085] (2) Distance index to shipping strategic channels: Extract and vectorize important regional shipping strategic channels in OpenGMS. Use ship AIS data to create a heat map of ship routes to assist in analyzing and determining the location and relative importance of shipping strategic channels. Use the Euclidean distance algorithm to analyze the distance between each grid and the shipping strategic channel, and calculate the comprehensive score of the distance index to the shipping strategic channel based on relative importance.

[0086] (3) Port monopoly status indicator: Based on global port data, the degree of port aggregation around each grid is calculated through kernel density analysis to characterize the port monopoly status.

[0087] (4) Berth concentration index: The number of berths in existing ports within the target area is selected, and the kernel density algorithm is used to perform density clustering analysis to obtain the current degree of berth concentration around each grid.

[0088] (5) Cargo transport capacity index: Select existing ports within the target area, analyze the types of cargo that can be transported, consider the transport capacity of dry bulk cargo, liquid cargo, container cargo, as well as roll-on / roll-off facilities and passenger carrying capacity. If there is a certain transport capacity, it will be scored as 1 point, otherwise it will be scored as 0 point. The cargo transport capacity score of each port is accumulated and calculated. The kernel density algorithm is used to perform density clustering analysis using the score as the weight to obtain the influence of the cargo transport capacity of the surrounding port infrastructure on the grid.

[0089] (6) Land use index: The land predicted as urban type in the sixth IPCC report is selected as the land use type suitable for the construction of transit ports, and the value is set to 1, and the rest are set to 0.

[0090] (7) The remaining indicators are already spatial field data and can be processed into a unified grid framework.

[0091] In this embodiment, the classification and assignment of each secondary indicator is determined. The suitability of the indicators is graded based on existing relevant research and combined with the ArcGIS natural break point classification method. Among them, the land use indicator selects the urban type as the type suitable for port construction, and assigns a value of 3, and the remaining types are assigned a value of 1. The basic water depth indicator is to meet the conditions for large ships to pass through. The deep-water port requires a water depth of at least 15m. The water depth of 15~17m can become a hub port selected by shipping companies. The water depths of 15m and 17m are set as the boundaries. For water depths below 17m, it is more valuable to choose a location to build a transshipment port. The remaining indicators are classified using the natural break point method. For example, they can be divided into 5 categories, and the values ​​​​are assigned in turn: 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1. The natural break point method can identify the classification intervals and can perform the most appropriate classification of similar values.

[0092] S5: Based on the indicators and weights after spatial quantification, the evaluation results of the transshipment port construction value are simulated.

[0093] According to an embodiment of the present invention, based on the spatially quantified indicators and weights, the evaluation result of the construction value of the transshipment port obtained by simulation may specifically include S51:

[0094] S51: A weighted superposition analysis is performed based on the assigned value of each indicator and the comprehensive weight, and the evaluation result of the transshipment port construction value is simulated.

[0095] In this embodiment, if the evaluation result is P, the score of the i-th indicator is Pi (i=1,2,…8), and the weight is W i (i=1,2,…8), then the calculation method of the transshipment port construction value assessment result can be:

[0096]

[0097] Among them, P represents the evaluation result, P i represents the evaluation score of the i-th indicator, Wi represents the comprehensive weight of the i-th indicator, i=1,2,…8.

[0098] The different indicator scores and comprehensive weights of the indicators of each grid are input into the calculation model, and weighted superposition calculation is performed to obtain the value score of the transit port construction in the Southeast Asian region under the future scenario. In this embodiment, the simulation evaluation result of the transit port construction value is shown in FIG. Figure 3 .

[0099] Figure 3 A diagram schematically shows a result of a simulation evaluation of the value of a transshipment port construction within a target area according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0100] like Figure 3 As shown, the score calculation results are divided into five levels according to the natural break point classification method to represent different degrees of construction value, namely, areas with "highest", "higher", "medium", "lower" and "lowest" construction value.

[0101] Figure 4 A diagram schematically shows a simulation evaluation result diagram of the highest transshipment port construction value within a target area according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0102] like Figure 4 As shown, the top 5% of the regions with the highest scores within the research scope are taken, and it is believed that the value of building a transshipment port in the future scenario is the highest in this region. The region with the highest output value score corresponds to the shore section with the highest value of transshipment port construction in the future scenario.

[0103] The simulation results are carried out in a 1km*1km grid framework. The results have been spatially quantified. Based on the results, the simulation values ​​of the specified grid can be obtained in the specific area of ​​concern to support regional port development decisions.

[0104] In this embodiment, according to the transit port construction value simulation evaluation method, the grid-scale transit port construction value evaluation results of Bangkok Bay and the Pearl River Delta region can be obtained, respectively. Figure 5 and Figure 6 , the results of other areas of interest can also be obtained accordingly.

[0105] Figure 5 The figure schematically shows the simulation evaluation result in the Bangkok Bay coast section according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0106] Figure 6 The figure schematically shows the simulation evaluation result diagram of the Pearl River Delta coast section according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0107] According to the embodiment of the present invention, spatial field data is used, and the index values ​​are spatially quantified through GIS spatial calculation methods such as kernel density analysis and Euclidean distance analysis. Combined with the index weights obtained by the AHP method, the construction value of the transshipment port is simulated and evaluated at the grid scale to analyze the most valuable construction shore section. The use of GIS spatial calculation methods and site selection analysis strategies to characterize spatially related indicators reduces the uncertainty of prediction results based only on expert experience and single port comparisons.

[0108] The method for simulating and evaluating the value of transshipment port construction in the embodiment of the present invention not only reasonably analyzes the impact of the surrounding environment on the transshipment port construction during the simulation, but also quantifies the value in the form of grid units in the region, and can generate rasterized product results, filling the gap in the search for potential excellent transshipment port construction areas in the future.

[0109] The specific embodiments described above further illustrate the objectives, technical solutions and beneficial effects of the present invention in detail. It should be understood that the above description is only a specific embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0110] Figure 7 The structure block diagram of the device for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port according to an embodiment of the present invention is schematically shown.

[0111] like Figure 7 As shown, the transshipment port construction value simulation and evaluation device of this embodiment includes: a construction module 701, a determination module 702, a division module 703, a space quantification module 704 and a simulation module 705.

[0112] The construction module 701 is used to obtain the indicators that affect the construction value of the transshipment port in the target area, and construct an indicator system for simulating and evaluating the construction value of the transshipment port under the future scenario of SSP5-RCP8.5 according to the indicators. In one embodiment, the construction module 701 can be used to perform the operation S1 described above, which will not be repeated here.

[0113] The determination module 702 is used to determine the weight of the index in the index system, wherein the weight represents the importance of each index relative to the value of the transshipment port construction. In one embodiment, the determination module 702 can be used to perform the operation S2 described above, which will not be repeated here.

[0114] The division module 703 is used to divide the target area into grids, wherein the grids are configured with a projection coordinate system and a specified grid size to match the resolution requirement. In one embodiment, the division module 703 can be used to perform the operation S3 described above, which will not be described in detail here.

[0115] The spatial quantization module 704 is used to project and transform the spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system and unify the resolution to a set grid framework to perform spatial quantization on the indicator data. In one embodiment, the spatial quantization module 704 can be used to perform the operation S4 described above, which will not be described in detail here.

[0116] The simulation module 705 is used to simulate and obtain the evaluation result of the construction value of the transshipment port according to the spatially quantified indicators and weights. In one embodiment, the simulation module 705 can be used to perform the operation S5 described above, which will not be repeated here.

[0117] According to an embodiment of the present invention, any multiple modules among the construction module 701, the determination module 702, the division module 703, the spatial quantization module 704 and the simulation module 705 can be combined into one module for implementation, or any one of the modules can be split into multiple modules. Alternatively, at least part of the functions of one or more of these modules can be combined with at least part of the functions of other modules and implemented in one module. Alternatively, at least one of the construction module 701, the determination module 702, the division module 703, the spatial quantization module 704 and the simulation module 705 can be at least partially implemented as a computer program module, and when the computer program module is executed, the corresponding function can be executed.

[0118] According to the device for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port provided by the present invention, spatial field data is used, and the index value is spatially quantified through GIS spatial calculation methods such as kernel density analysis and Euclidean distance analysis. The index weights obtained by the AHP method are combined to simulate and evaluate the construction value of the transshipment port at a grid scale, and the construction shore section with the highest value is analyzed. The use of GIS spatial calculation methods and site selection analysis strategies to characterize spatially related indicators reduces the uncertainty of prediction results based only on expert experience and single port comparisons. This method not only reasonably analyzes the impact of the surrounding environment on the construction of the transshipment port during the simulation, but also quantifies the value in the form of grid units in the region, and can generate rasterized product results, filling the gap in the search for potential excellent transshipment port construction areas in the future.

[0119] The flowcharts and block diagrams in the accompanying drawings illustrate the possible implementation architecture, functions and operations of the systems, methods and computer program products according to various embodiments of the present invention. In this regard, each box in the flowchart or block diagram may represent a module, a program segment, or a part of a code, and the above-mentioned module, program segment, or a part of the code contains one or more executable instructions for implementing the specified logical function. It should also be noted that in some alternative implementations, the functions marked in the box may also occur in an order different from the order marked in the accompanying drawings. For example, two boxes represented in succession can actually be executed substantially in parallel, and they can sometimes be executed in the opposite order, depending on the functions involved. It should also be noted that each box in the block diagram or flowchart, and the combination of boxes in the block diagram or flowchart, can be implemented with a dedicated hardware-based system that performs the specified function or operation, or can be implemented with a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions. It can be understood by those skilled in the art that the features recorded in the various embodiments of the present invention can be combined and / or combined in various ways, even if such a combination or combination is not explicitly recorded in the present invention. In particular, without departing from the spirit and teachings of the present invention, the features recorded in the various embodiments of the present invention can be combined and / or combined in various ways. All these combinations and / or combinations fall within the scope of the present invention.

[0120] The embodiments of the present invention are described above. However, this embodiment is only for the purpose of illustration, and is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Although only one embodiment is described above, this does not mean that the measures in the various embodiments cannot be used in combination advantageously. Without departing from the scope of the present invention, those skilled in the art may make various substitutions and modifications, which should all fall within the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for simulating and evaluating the value of transshipment port construction, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtain indicators that affect the value of transshipment port construction in the target area, and construct an indicator system for simulating and evaluating the value of transshipment port construction under the SSP5-RCP8.5 future scenario based on the indicators; the indicators include primary indicators and secondary indicators, the primary indicators include natural environmental conditions, economic development level, geographical location conditions, and existing port conditions; the secondary indicators of natural environmental conditions include sea level rise indicators under future scenarios, basic water depth indicators, typhoon intensity indicators, and wind and wave intensity indicators under future scenarios; the secondary indicators of economic development level include GDP indicators under future scenarios, population indicators under future scenarios, and land use indicators under future scenarios; the geographical location conditions include distance indicators from shipping strategic channels and port monopoly status indicators; the secondary indicators of existing port conditions include berth concentration indicators and cargo transportation capacity indicators; Determine the weights of the indicators in the indicator system, wherein the weights represent the importance of each indicator relative to the value of the transshipment port construction; the determining the weights of the indicators in the indicator system includes: using a hierarchical analysis method to compare the relative importance of the primary indicators and the secondary indicators respectively; according to the relative importance, determine the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator respectively; according to the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator, determine the comprehensive weight; Meshing the target area, wherein the mesh is configured with a projected coordinate system and a specified mesh size to match a resolution requirement; The spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system are projected and transformed, and the resolution is unified to a set grid framework, and the indicator is spatially quantified; the spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system are projected and transformed, and the resolution is unified to a set grid framework, and the indicator is spatially quantified, including: unifying the projection coordinate system and resolution of the indicator, and setting it in the same grid framework; performing spatial analysis calculation on the original spatial data according to the indicator description content to obtain the calculation result, and the spatial analysis calculation method includes kernel density analysis and Euclidean distance analysis; using ArcGIS natural break point classification method to classify the calculation result; assigning a value to each index after classification; According to the spatially quantified indicators and weights, the evaluation results of the construction value of the transshipment port are simulated; the evaluation results of the construction value of the transshipment port are simulated according to the spatially quantified indicators and weights, including: performing weighted superposition analysis according to the value assignment result of each indicator and the comprehensive weight, and simulating the evaluation results of the construction value of the transshipment port; The simulation and evaluation method for the construction value of the transshipment port also includes: dividing the evaluation results into five levels according to the natural break point classification method, each level represents a different degree of construction value, namely, areas with "highest", "relatively high", "medium", "lower" and "lowest" construction value; taking the top 5% of areas with the highest evaluation results within the research scope, it is considered that the value of constructing a transshipment port in the future scenario is the highest in this area, and the area with the highest evaluation result is output, which corresponds to the shore section with the highest value of transshipment port construction in the future scenario.

2. The method for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Determining the relative weight of each first-level indicator and the relative weight of each second-level indicator respectively according to the relative importance includes: According to the relative importance, a judgment matrix is ​​established, and a weight vector and a maximum eigenvalue are calculated by using a sum-product method; Based on the weight vector, the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator are obtained.

3. The method for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port according to claim 2 is characterized in that: Determining the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator according to the relative importance also includes: Performing consistency check on each relative weight using the maximum eigenvalue; In response to the consistency check passing, the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator are determined to be available values.

4. The method for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The comprehensive weight is calculated as follows: W=W1*W2 Among them, W represents the comprehensive weight, W1 represents the relative weight of the first-level indicator, and W2 represents the relative weight of the second-level indicator.

5. The method for simulating and evaluating the construction value of a transshipment port according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculation method of the evaluation result of the construction value of the transit port obtained by the simulation is: Among them, P represents the evaluation result, P i represents the evaluation score of the i-th indicator, W i Represents the comprehensive weight of i indicators, i=1,2,…8.

6. The method for simulating and evaluating the value of transshipment port construction according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The grid is configured as a grid of 1 km*1 km in a projected coordinate system.

7. A transit port construction value simulation and evaluation device, characterized in that: The device comprises: A construction module is used to obtain indicators that affect the construction value of the transshipment port in the target area, and to construct an indicator system for simulating and evaluating the construction value of the transshipment port under the SSP5-RCP8.5 future scenario based on the indicators; the indicators include primary indicators and secondary indicators, the primary indicators include natural environmental conditions, economic development level, geographical location conditions, and existing port conditions, the secondary indicators of the natural environmental conditions include sea level rise indicators under future scenarios, basic water depth indicators, typhoon intensity indicators, and wind and wave intensity indicators under future scenarios, the secondary indicators of the economic development level include GDP indicators under future scenarios, population indicators under future scenarios, and land use indicators under future scenarios, the geographical location conditions include distance indicators from shipping strategic channels, and port monopoly status indicators, and the secondary indicators of the existing port conditions include berth concentration indicators and cargo transportation capacity indicators; A determination module is used to determine the weights of the indicators in the indicator system, wherein the weights represent the importance of each indicator relative to the value of the transshipment port construction; the determination of the weights of the indicators in the indicator system includes: using a hierarchical analysis method to compare the relative importance of the primary indicators and the secondary indicators respectively; according to the relative importance, determining the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator respectively; according to the relative weight of each primary indicator and the relative weight of each secondary indicator, determining the comprehensive weight; A partitioning module, used for partitioning the target area into a grid, wherein the grid is configured with a projection coordinate system and a specified grid size to match the resolution requirement; A spatial quantization module is used to project and transform the spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system and unify the resolution to a set grid framework, and perform spatial quantization on the indicator; the projecting and transforming of the spatial field data corresponding to each indicator in the indicator system and unifying the resolution to a set grid framework, and performing spatial quantization on the indicator includes: unifying the projection coordinate system and resolution of the indicator and setting it in the same grid framework; performing spatial analysis and calculation on the original spatial data according to the indicator description content to obtain the calculation result, and the spatial analysis and calculation method includes kernel density analysis and Euclidean distance analysis; using ArcGIS natural break point classification method to classify the calculation result; and assigning a value to each index after classification; A simulation module is used to simulate and obtain the evaluation result of the construction value of the transshipment port according to the spatially quantified indicators and weights; the simulation and obtaining the evaluation result of the construction value of the transshipment port according to the spatially quantified indicators and weights includes: performing weighted superposition analysis according to the assignment result of each indicator and the comprehensive weight, and simulating and obtaining the evaluation result of the construction value of the transshipment port; The simulation module is also used to divide the evaluation results into five levels according to the natural break point classification method, and each level represents a different degree of construction value, namely, areas with "highest", "relatively high", "medium", "lower" and "lowest" construction value; the top 5% of areas with the highest evaluation results within the research scope are taken, and it is considered that the value of building a transshipment port in the future scenario is the highest in this area, and the area with the highest evaluation result is output, which corresponds to the shore section with the highest value of transshipment port construction in the future scenario.

Images