A remote sensing satellite photographed area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis method and device

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method and device for analyzing the confidence of cloud amount forecast in a remote sensing satellite photographing area. The method comprises: obtaining the longitude and latitude data of the area to be analyzed, the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud amount, the cloud amount value interval to which the current forecast cloud amount belongs, the quarter to which the current moment belongs, and the current forecast duration factor; determining the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located, and obtaining the cloud amount forecast accuracy data corresponding to the longitude and latitude grid; matching the cloud amount forecast accuracy corresponding to the cloud amount value interval under the quarter to which the current moment belongs from the cloud amount forecast accuracy data; calculating the accuracy factor of the current forecast cloud amount in the area to be analyzed according to the forecast duration and the current forecast duration factor; calculating the forecast cloud amount confidence of the current forecast cloud amount in the area to be analyzed according to the accuracy factor and the cloud amount forecast accuracy. The present invention can analyze the confidence of the future forecast cloud amount.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of aerospace cloud cover forecasting, and in particular to a method and device for analyzing the confidence of cloud cover forecasting in a region photographed by a remote sensing satellite. Background Art

[0002] Existing space cloud cover forecasts lack the ability to analyze the confidence level of future cloud cover forecasts. The accuracy of the forecast can only be assessed through a post-event comparison of the predicted cloud cover with the actual cloud cover, and cannot be evaluated before the future time arrives. This results in a lack of advance knowledge of the accuracy of future cloud cover forecasts during space mission planning, making it impossible to plan effective missions based on the target area's future cloud cover forecast. When missions are formulated based on existing cloud cover forecasts, effective mission execution cannot be guaranteed if there is a deviation between the actual and predicted cloud cover during mission execution. Furthermore, the instability of the accuracy of the target area's future cloud cover forecast leads to information errors, resulting in useless execution results and wasted satellite resources. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The present invention provides a method and device for analyzing the confidence of cloud cover forecast in a region photographed by a remote sensing satellite, so as to solve the technical problem that existing aerospace cloud cover forecasts lack the function of analyzing the confidence of future cloud cover forecasts and can only evaluate the accuracy of the forecast cloud cover by visually comparing the forecast cloud cover with the actual cloud cover afterwards.

[0004] To solve the above technical problems, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for analyzing the confidence of cloud cover forecasts in a remote sensing satellite imaged area, comprising:

[0005] Obtain the latitude and longitude data of the area to be analyzed, the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed, the cloud cover value interval to which the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed belongs, the quarter to which the current time belongs, and the current forecast duration factor;

[0006] Determine the latitude and longitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located based on the latitude and longitude data, and then obtain cloud cover forecast accuracy data corresponding to the latitude and longitude grid based on the latitude and longitude grid;

[0007] According to the cloud cover value interval and the quarter to which the current moment belongs, matching the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to the cloud cover value interval in the quarter to which the current moment belongs from the cloud cover forecast accuracy data;

[0008] Calculating an accuracy factor of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed based on the forecast duration and the current forecast duration factor;

[0009] The cloud cover forecast confidence level of the current cloud cover forecast in the area to be analyzed is calculated based on the accuracy factor and the cloud cover forecast accuracy.

[0010] As a preferred solution, the generation of the cloud cover forecast accuracy data includes:

[0011] Divide the global area according to longitude and latitude to obtain several longitude and latitude grids;

[0012] Obtain the historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data corresponding to each longitude and latitude grid;

[0013] The historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data in each longitude and latitude grid are divided into quarters to obtain the historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data corresponding to each quarter;

[0014] For each quarter, based on the corresponding historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data, the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to each cloud cover value interval in the historical forecast cloud cover data is calculated, and then the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to each cloud cover value interval in each quarter is used as the cloud cover forecast accuracy data.

[0015] As a preferred solution, the cloud amount value interval includes: a first cloud amount value interval corresponding to a sunny day, a second cloud amount value interval corresponding to a cloudy day, a third cloud amount value interval corresponding to a partly cloudy day, or a fourth cloud amount value interval corresponding to a cloudy day;

[0016] The cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to each cloud cover value interval is calculated according to the following formula:

[0017] ;

[0018] ;

[0019] ;

[0020] ;

[0021] in, The cloud cover forecast accuracy for the first cloud cover value interval corresponding to sunny days The number of times that the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both 0 when it is sunny; For sunny days, the number of times the historical actual cloud cover value is 0 but the historical forecast cloud cover value is not 0, plus the number of times both the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are 0; is the cloud cover forecast accuracy for the second cloud cover value interval corresponding to cloudy days; The number of times when the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the range of [0.9, 1] when it is cloudy; When it is cloudy, the number of times the historical actual cloud cover value is within the interval [0.9, 1] but the historical forecast cloud cover value is not within the interval [0.9, 1], plus the number of times the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the interval [0.9, 1]; is the cloud cover forecast accuracy for the third cloud cover value interval corresponding to the few clouds; When there are few clouds, the number of times the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the range of [0, 0.2]; When there are few clouds, the number of times the historical actual cloud cover value is within the range of [0, 0.2] and the historical forecast cloud cover value is not within the range of [0, 0.2], plus the number of times the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the range of [0, 0.2]; is the cloud cover forecast accuracy for the fourth cloud cover value interval corresponding to cloudy weather; When it is cloudy, the number of times the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the range of [0.2, 0.9]; When it is cloudy, the number of times the historical actual cloud cover value is within the range of [0.2, 0.9] and the historical forecast cloud cover value is not within the range of [0.2, 0.9], plus the number of times both the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are within the range of [0.2, 0.9].

[0022] As a preferred solution, before obtaining cloud cover forecast accuracy data corresponding to the latitude and longitude grid according to the latitude and longitude grid, the method further includes:

[0023] Determine whether there is corresponding cloud cover forecast accuracy data for the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located. If so, obtain the cloud cover forecast accuracy data corresponding to the longitude and latitude grid; if not, terminate the operation and associate the current forecast cloud cover of the area to be analyzed with the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located and store them.

[0024] As a preferred solution, after calculating the confidence level of the current forecast cloud cover of the area to be analyzed, the following steps are also included:

[0025] The space mission plan for the area to be analyzed is adjusted based on the current forecast cloud cover of the area to be analyzed and the forecast cloud cover confidence level corresponding to the current forecast cloud cover.

[0026] As a preferred solution, the accuracy factor is calculated using the following formula:

[0027] Af = correlation[Index];

[0028] Index = ;

[0029] Among them, Af is the accuracy factor of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed; Index is the subscript of the forecast duration factor, correlation is the storage array of the forecast duration factor, and Time is the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed.

[0030] As a preferred solution, the confidence level of the predicted cloud cover is calculated using the following formula:

[0031] ;

[0032] Where Cl is the confidence level of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed; is the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to the area to be analyzed.

[0033] Based on the above embodiment, another embodiment of the present invention provides a device for analyzing the confidence of cloud cover forecast in a remote sensing satellite photographed area, comprising: a module for acquiring data of a region to be analyzed, a module for acquiring data of cloud cover forecast accuracy, a module for calculating cloud cover forecast accuracy, a module for calculating accuracy factor, and a module for calculating the confidence of cloud cover forecast;

[0034] The data acquisition module for the area to be analyzed is used to obtain the latitude and longitude data of the area to be analyzed, the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed, the cloud cover value interval to which the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed belongs, the quarter to which the current time belongs, and the current forecast duration factor;

[0035] The cloud cover forecast accuracy data acquisition module is used to determine the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located based on the longitude and latitude data, and then obtain the cloud cover forecast accuracy data corresponding to the longitude and latitude grid based on the longitude and latitude grid;

[0036] The cloud cover forecast accuracy calculation module is used to match the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to the cloud cover value interval in the quarter to which the current moment belongs from the cloud cover forecast accuracy data according to the cloud cover value interval and the quarter to which the current moment belongs;

[0037] The accuracy factor calculation module is used to calculate the accuracy factor of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed based on the forecast duration and the current forecast duration factor;

[0038] The forecast cloud cover confidence calculation module is used to calculate the forecast cloud cover confidence of the current forecast cloud cover of the area to be analyzed based on the accuracy factor and the cloud cover forecast accuracy.

[0039] Based on the above embodiments, another embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, which includes a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, the method for analyzing the confidence of cloud cover forecast in the remote sensing satellite photographing area described in the above embodiment of the invention is implemented.

[0040] Based on the above embodiments, another embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, which includes a stored computer program, wherein when the computer program is running, the device where the storage medium is located is controlled to execute the remote sensing satellite photographing area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis method described in the above invention embodiment.

[0041] Compared with the prior art, the embodiments of the present invention have the following beneficial effects:

[0042] The present invention provides a method for analyzing the confidence of cloud cover forecast in a remote sensing satellite photographed area. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, obtaining the latitude and longitude data of the area to be analyzed, the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed, the cloud cover value interval to which the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed belongs, the quarter to which the current moment belongs, and the current forecast duration factor; according to the latitude and longitude data, the latitude and longitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located in the global area can be confirmed, and cloud cover forecast accuracy data corresponding to the latitude and longitude grid can be obtained; according to the cloud cover value interval and the quarter to which the current moment belongs, the corresponding cloud cover forecast accuracy is matched in the cloud cover forecast accuracy data; finally, according to the forecast duration and the current forecast duration factor, the accuracy factor of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed is calculated; and according to the accuracy factor and the cloud cover forecast accuracy, the forecast cloud cover confidence of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed can be finally calculated. The confidence level of the current forecast cloud cover in the analysis area is analyzed to obtain the corresponding forecast cloud cover confidence level. Based on the forecast cloud cover confidence level, the accuracy of the current forecast cloud cover in the analysis area can be judged. A high forecast cloud cover confidence level indicates that the accuracy of the current forecast cloud cover is high, and a low forecast cloud cover confidence level indicates that the accuracy of the current forecast cloud cover is low. The accuracy of the current forecast cloud cover can provide effective support for mission planning, ensure the effective execution of the mission, and avoid waste of satellite resources. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0043] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for analyzing the confidence of cloud cover forecasts in a remote sensing satellite photographed area, provided by one embodiment of the present invention;

[0044] Figure 2 This is the calculation flow chart of the confidence level of the predicted cloud cover;

[0045] Figure 3The present invention is a schematic structural diagram of a device for analyzing the confidence of cloud cover forecasts in a remote sensing satellite photographed area, provided by one embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0046] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this application more clear, the technical solutions in this application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of this application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of this application, not all of them. Based on the embodiments in this application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making any creative efforts are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0047] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by those skilled in the art to which this application belongs; the terms used herein are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit this application; the terms "including" and "having" and any variations thereof in the specification and claims of this application and the above-mentioned figure descriptions are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions.

[0048] In the description of the embodiments of this application, the technical terms "first" and "second" are used only to distinguish different objects and should not be understood to indicate or imply relative importance or implicitly specify the quantity, specific order, or primary and secondary relationship of the indicated technical features. In the description of the embodiments of this application, the meaning of "plurality" is more than two, unless otherwise clearly and specifically defined.

[0049] References herein to "embodiments" mean that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiments may be included in at least one embodiment of the present application. The appearance of this phrase in various places in the specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, nor does it constitute an independent or alternative embodiment that is mutually exclusive of other embodiments. It is understood, both explicitly and implicitly, by those skilled in the art that the embodiments described herein may be combined with other embodiments.

[0050] In the description of the embodiments of this application, the term "and / or" is simply a description of the association relationship between associated objects, indicating that three relationships can exist. For example, A and / or B can represent the following three situations: A exists alone, A and B exist simultaneously, and B exists alone. In addition, the character " / " in this document generally indicates that the associated objects are in an "or" relationship.

[0051] In the description of the embodiments of the present application, the term "multiple" refers to more than two (including two). Similarly, "multiple groups" refers to more than two groups (including two groups), and "multiple pieces" refers to more than two pieces (including two pieces).

[0052] In the description of the embodiments of the present application, unless otherwise expressly specified or limited, technical terms such as "installed," "connected," "connected," and "fixed" should be understood in a broad sense. For example, they can refer to fixed connections, detachable connections, or integration; mechanical connections or electrical connections; direct connections or indirect connections through an intermediate medium; internal connections between two components or interactions between two components. Those skilled in the art can understand the specific meanings of the above terms in the embodiments of the present application based on specific circumstances.

[0053] Example 1

[0054] Please refer to Figure 1 , which is a flow chart of a method for analyzing the confidence of cloud cover forecasts in a remote sensing satellite photographed area according to one embodiment of the present invention, including the following specific steps:

[0055] S1. Obtain the latitude and longitude data of the area to be analyzed, the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed, the cloud cover value interval to which the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed belongs, the quarter to which the current time belongs, and the current forecast duration factor;

[0056] Preferably, the generation of the cloud cover forecast accuracy data includes: dividing the global area according to longitude and latitude to obtain a number of longitude and latitude grids; obtaining historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data corresponding to each longitude and latitude grid; dividing the historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data in each longitude and latitude grid according to quarters to obtain historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data corresponding to each quarter; for each quarter, calculating the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to each cloud cover value interval in the historical forecast cloud cover data based on the corresponding historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data, and then using the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to each cloud cover value interval in each quarter as the cloud cover forecast accuracy data.

[0057] Preferably, the cloud amount value intervals include: a first cloud amount value interval corresponding to a sunny day, a second cloud amount value interval corresponding to a cloudy day, a third cloud amount value interval corresponding to a partly cloudy day, or a fourth cloud amount value interval corresponding to a cloudy day; the cloud amount forecast accuracy corresponding to each cloud amount value interval is calculated according to the following formula:

[0058] ;

[0059] ;

[0060] ;

[0061] ;

[0062] in, The cloud cover forecast accuracy for the first cloud cover value interval corresponding to sunny days The number of times that the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both 0 when it is sunny; For sunny days, the number of times the historical actual cloud cover value is 0 but the historical forecast cloud cover value is not 0, plus the number of times both the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are 0; is the cloud cover forecast accuracy for the second cloud cover value interval corresponding to cloudy days; The number of times when the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the range of [0.9, 1] when it is cloudy; When it is cloudy, the number of times the historical actual cloud cover value is within the interval [0.9, 1] but the historical forecast cloud cover value is not within the interval [0.9, 1], plus the number of times the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the interval [0.9, 1]; is the cloud cover forecast accuracy for the third cloud cover value interval corresponding to the few clouds; When there are few clouds, the number of times the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the range of [0, 0.2]; When there are few clouds, the number of times the historical actual cloud cover value is within the range of [0, 0.2] and the historical forecast cloud cover value is not within the range of [0, 0.2], plus the number of times the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the range of [0, 0.2]; is the cloud cover forecast accuracy for the fourth cloud cover value interval corresponding to cloudy weather; When it is cloudy, the number of times the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the range of [0.2, 0.9]; When it is cloudy, the number of times the historical actual cloud cover value is within the range of [0.2, 0.9] and the historical forecast cloud cover value is not within the range of [0.2, 0.9], plus the number of times both the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are within the range of [0.2, 0.9].

[0063] Specifically, to address the problem that existing technologies cannot analyze the confidence of future cloud cover forecasts, the present invention calculates the accuracy of historical cloud cover forecasts for the target area photographed by remote sensing satellites in the same period, quarter, and cloud cover range, and obtains the historical cloud cover forecast accuracy of the target area that has actually generated cloud cover in the same period. The historical cloud cover forecast accuracy is used as the benchmark accuracy for the confidence of future cloud cover forecasts, and the confidence of future cloud cover forecasts for the target area is calculated and analyzed in combination with the forecast duration factor. Please refer to Figure 2 , is the calculation flow chart of the confidence level of cloud cover forecast. The specific calculation process is as follows:

[0064] 1. Calculate the cloud cover forecast accuracy for different cloud cover value ranges in different quarters based on historical data:

[0065] (1) Data acquisition and data processing: First, the global data is gridded and counted, and the world is divided into several longitude and latitude grids (longitude and latitude conversion). In a specific embodiment, the world can be divided into longitude and latitude grids of 0.125°*0.125°. Then, the historical actual cloud cover data and historical forecast cloud cover data of each grid area photographed by the remote sensing satellite are obtained, and the data of the historical actual cloud cover falling in each grid are counted. At the same time, the historical forecast cloud cover data of the same time and space are obtained through the historical forecast data interface (forecast cloud cover data and actual cloud cover data acquisition). The spatiotemporal correlation of the historical actual cloud cover data and the historical forecast cloud cover data taken by the satellite in the same grid and at the same time is realized, and it is updated regularly every day so that the accuracy in the plug-in database is always updated in real time, so as to prepare data for the subsequent statistical analysis of the accuracy of historical cloud cover forecasts and the confidence of forecast cloud cover.

[0066] Considering the impact of different cloud cover value intervals and seasonal dimensions (for example, a numerical forecast model may accurately predict sunny or cloudy days, but less accurately predict cloudy days; there may also be situations where the forecast accuracy varies in different quarters, such as a relatively accurate winter forecast and a relatively low summer forecast accuracy. Therefore, it is necessary to classify the data and calculate the accuracy for different dimensions). First, the data is divided into cloud cover value intervals, divided into forecast cloud cover data and actual cloud cover data corresponding to multiple cloud cover value intervals. In a specific embodiment, the cloud cover interval can be divided into sunny, partly cloudy, cloudy, and overcast days (cloud cover value interval division). Then, the data is divided into four different quarters, and the forecast cloud cover data and actual cloud cover data corresponding to each quarter are divided (data grouped by quarter).

[0067] (2) Calculation of cloud cover forecast accuracy:

[0068] Based on the historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data obtained above, the cloud cover forecast accuracy for each cloud cover value range is calculated, and the historical cloud cover forecast accuracy is used as the basic data for calculating the confidence of future forecast cloud cover.

[0069] Historical data is divided into quarters: January, February, and March are the first quarter, April, May, and June are the second quarter, July, August, and September are the third quarter, and October, November, and December are the fourth quarter. After dividing the historical data by quarter, the clear sky accuracy rate, partly cloudy accuracy rate, cloudy accuracy rate, and overcast accuracy rate are calculated for each quarter.

[0070] Based on currently published meteorological journals and the routine work standards of meteorological departments, it is tentatively determined that a difference of 0.15 between the predicted cloud cover and the actual cloud cover is accurate, and a difference of more than 0.15 is inaccurate. The calculation formula for the cloud cover forecast accuracy is as follows:

[0071] Overall accuracy ;

[0072] In the above formula, The number of times the difference between the predicted cloud cover value and the actual cloud cover value is within 0.15, To count the total number of times;

[0073] Sunny Day Accuracy ;

[0074] In the above formula, is the number of times the predicted cloud cover value and the actual cloud cover value are both 0, The number of times the actual cloud amount value is 0 but the forecast cloud amount value is not 0 plus the number of times both the forecast cloud amount value and the actual cloud amount value are 0;

[0075] Cloudy day accuracy ;

[0076] In the above formula, The number of times the predicted cloud cover value and the actual cloud cover value are both in the range of 0.9-1, The number of times the actual cloud amount value is 0.9-1 and the forecast cloud amount value is not in this range plus the number of times the forecast cloud amount value and the actual cloud amount value are both 0.9-1;

[0077] Few Cloud Accuracy ;

[0078] In the above formula, The number of times the predicted cloud cover value and the actual cloud cover value are both in the range of 0-0.2, The number of times the actual cloud cover value is between 0 and 0.2 and the predicted cloud cover value is not in this range plus the number of times the predicted cloud cover value and the actual cloud cover value are both between 0 and 0.2;

[0079] Cloudy Accuracy ;

[0080] In the above formula, The number of times the predicted cloud cover value and the actual cloud cover value are both in the range of 0.2-0.9, It is the number of times the actual cloud amount value is between 0.2-0.9 and the predicted cloud amount value is not in this range plus the number of times the predicted cloud amount value and the actual cloud amount value are both between 0.2-0.9.

[0081] 2. Calculate the confidence level of the current cloud cover forecast for the area to be analyzed based on the current data and cloud cover forecast accuracy of the area to be analyzed:

[0082] (1) Data acquisition: Obtain the latitude and longitude data of the area to be analyzed, the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed, the cloud cover value range of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed, the quarter to which the current time belongs, and the current forecast duration factor. The current forecast duration factor is taken from the evolution of the meteorological forecast skill score since 1980 authoritatively published by the European Center for Meteorological Forecasts (EC). The forecast duration factor is the reduction coefficient obtained from the evolution of the meteorological forecast skill score published by the above-mentioned agency, which shows that the accuracy decreases as the forecast duration increases.

[0083] Combining the forecast cloud cover value range, the quarter to which the current time belongs, the current forecast duration factor (the forecast accuracy gradually decreases with the forecast duration), and the current forecast cloud cover data, the forecast cloud cover confidence of the current forecast cloud cover is calculated based on the data from the above four dimensions.

[0084] S2. Determine the latitude and longitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located based on the latitude and longitude data, and then obtain cloud cover forecast accuracy data corresponding to the latitude and longitude grid based on the latitude and longitude grid;

[0085] Preferably, before obtaining the cloud cover forecast accuracy data corresponding to the longitude and latitude grid according to the longitude and latitude grid, it also includes: judging whether there is corresponding cloud cover forecast accuracy data for the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located; if so, obtaining the cloud cover forecast accuracy data corresponding to the longitude and latitude grid; if not, terminating the operation, and associating and storing the current forecast cloud cover of the area to be analyzed with the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located.

[0086] (2) Latitude and longitude conversion and cloud cover forecast accuracy data acquisition: According to the latitude and longitude data of the area to be analyzed, determine the latitude and longitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located; then determine whether the database stores relevant information of the grid area. If not, terminate the operation and return the confidence value to null; if so, determine whether the database stores historical accuracy data of the grid area. If so, obtain the cloud cover forecast accuracy data corresponding to the latitude and longitude grid. If not, terminate the operation and return the confidence value to null, and associate the current forecast cloud cover of the area to be analyzed with the latitude and longitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located. After obtaining the actual cloud cover of the area, update the forecast accuracy data of the grid area in the database.

[0087] S3. According to the cloud cover value interval and the quarter to which the current moment belongs, matching the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to the cloud cover value interval in the quarter to which the current moment belongs from the cloud cover forecast accuracy data;

[0088] (3) According to the cloud amount value range of the current forecast cloud amount in the area to be analyzed and the quarter to which the current moment belongs, the cloud amount forecast accuracy corresponding to the cloud amount value range under the quarter to which the current moment belongs is matched from the cloud amount forecast accuracy data of the area.

[0089] S4. Calculating an accuracy factor of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed based on the forecast duration and the current forecast duration factor;

[0090] Preferably, the accuracy factor is calculated by the following formula:

[0091] Af = correlation[Index];

[0092] Index = ;

[0093] Among them, Af is the accuracy factor of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed; Index is the subscript of the forecast duration factor, correlation is the storage array of the forecast duration factor, and Time is the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed.

[0094] (4) Based on the input data of historical forecast accuracy and taking the forecast duration factor data as the diagnosis basis, the forecast confidence of the current forecast cloud cover is comprehensively obtained.

[0095] Time = the predicted future duration (the next hour closest to the forecast time is 0, and 1 is added every hour to represent the predicted cloud cover in the next few hours after the current time);

[0096] Index(forecast duration factor subscript) = ;

[0097] Index represents the subscript of the forecast duration factor, Time represents the forecast duration, and 24 represents the forecast duration unit (24 if the unit is hours, and the number of days if the unit is days).

[0098] Af = correlation[Index];

[0099] Af represents the accuracy factor, and correlation represents the storage array of the prediction duration factor.

[0100] S5. Calculate the cloud cover forecast confidence of the current cloud cover forecast in the area to be analyzed based on the accuracy factor and the cloud cover forecast accuracy.

[0101] Preferably, the forecast cloud cover confidence level is calculated using the following formula:

[0102] ;

[0103] Where Cl is the confidence level of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed; is the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to the area to be analyzed.

[0104] (5) Calculate the confidence level of the current cloud cover forecast for the area to be analyzed:

[0105] ;

[0106] Cl represents the confidence level of the predicted cloud cover.

[0107] In one specific embodiment, forecast cloud cover data for a target area is obtained. Based on the cloud cover range, the cloud cover range is divided into four intervals: clear (cloud cover 0), lightly cloudy (cloud cover 0-0.2), cloudy (cloud cover 0.2-0.9), and overcast (cloud cover 0.9-1). Based on the quarter to which the forecast time for the target point belongs, the cloud cover forecast accuracy data for the grid for that quarter is obtained. This allows the basic confidence level of the forecast cloud cover for each future time point to be obtained. By factoring in the forecast duration and data diagnostics, the forecast confidence level is comprehensively calculated. For example, to calculate the confidence level of the cloud cover forecast for Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, on October 15, 2024, we first locate the area based on the latitude and longitude of the target point. Then, we determine the quarter to which October 15, 2024 belongs and query the historical benchmark accuracy rate for the cloud cover forecast for that quarter. We then calculate the duration of the current time recorded on October 15, 2024, and obtain the forecast duration factor for the corresponding duration. This allows us to calculate the confidence level of the cloud cover forecast for the target date, October 15, 2024.

[0108] Preferably, after calculating the forecast cloud amount confidence level of the current forecast cloud amount of the area to be analyzed, it also includes: adjusting the space mission plan of the area to be analyzed based on the current forecast cloud amount of the area to be analyzed and the forecast cloud amount confidence level corresponding to the current forecast cloud amount.

[0109] By analyzing the confidence results of the future predicted cloud cover in the target area photographed by remote sensing satellites and combining it with the space mission planning plan of the remote sensing satellite for the target area, we can provide effective support for mission planning and prevent mission planning decision errors caused by inaccurate cloud cover forecasts.

[0110] For example, for a target area, the forecast cloud cover for the next two days is 5% and 0%, respectively. Based on the historical confidence level for the target area during the same period, the forecast confidence levels for the next three days are calculated to be 1% and 98%, respectively. Before the confidence level is provided, mission planners, based on the forecast cloud cover values, determine that weather conditions for the first day meet the mission. However, the calculated confidence level for the 5% cloud cover forecast for the first day is only 1%, which is extremely low and unsuitable for mission execution. This provides data support for mission planners, indicating that mission execution conditions are unavailable on the first day and that mission planning is not recommended, thus avoiding ineffective mission planning. The forecast cloud cover for the second day and the confidence level provide data support for mission planners, indicating that the confidence level for the 0% cloud cover forecast for the second day is as high as 98%. Therefore, the mission is suitable for execution and can be planned for the next day.

[0111] Example 2

[0112] Please refer to Figure 3 , is a schematic diagram of the structure of a device for analyzing the confidence of cloud cover forecast in a remote sensing satellite photographed area according to one embodiment of the present invention. The device comprises: a module for acquiring data of the area to be analyzed, a module for acquiring data of cloud cover forecast accuracy, a module for calculating cloud cover forecast accuracy, a module for calculating accuracy factor, and a module for calculating the confidence of cloud cover forecast;

[0113] The data acquisition module for the area to be analyzed is used to obtain the latitude and longitude data of the area to be analyzed, the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed, the cloud cover value interval to which the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed belongs, the quarter to which the current time belongs, and the current forecast duration factor;

[0114] The cloud cover forecast accuracy data acquisition module is used to determine the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located based on the longitude and latitude data, and then obtain the cloud cover forecast accuracy data corresponding to the longitude and latitude grid based on the longitude and latitude grid;

[0115] The cloud cover forecast accuracy calculation module is used to match the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to the cloud cover value interval in the quarter to which the current moment belongs from the cloud cover forecast accuracy data according to the cloud cover value interval and the quarter to which the current moment belongs;

[0116] The accuracy factor calculation module is used to calculate the accuracy factor of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed based on the forecast duration and the current forecast duration factor;

[0117] The forecast cloud cover confidence calculation module is used to calculate the forecast cloud cover confidence of the current forecast cloud cover of the area to be analyzed based on the accuracy factor and the cloud cover forecast accuracy.

[0118] It should be noted that the device embodiments described above are merely illustrative, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed across multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the present embodiment. In addition, in the drawings of the device embodiments provided by the present invention, the connection relationship between the modules indicates that there is a communication connection between them, which may be specifically implemented as one or more communication buses or signal lines. A person of ordinary skill in the art can understand and implement the present invention without inventive effort.

[0119] Those skilled in the art will clearly understand that, for the sake of convenience and brevity, the specific working process of the device described above can refer to the corresponding process in the aforementioned method embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0120] Example 3

[0121] Accordingly, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, comprising a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, the method for analyzing the confidence of cloud cover forecast in the remote sensing satellite photographing area described in the above-mentioned embodiment of the invention is implemented.

[0122] The electronic device may be a computing device such as a desktop computer, a notebook computer, a PDA, a cloud server, etc. The device may include, but is not limited to, a processor and a memory.

[0123] The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA), other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. A general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor. The processor is the control center of the device and connects various parts of the entire device using various interfaces and lines.

[0124] Example 4

[0125] Accordingly, an embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, which includes a stored computer program, wherein when the computer program is running, the device where the storage medium is located is controlled to execute the confidence analysis method for predicting cloud cover in the remote sensing satellite photographing area described in the above-mentioned embodiment of the invention.

[0126] The memory can be used to store the computer program. The processor implements the various functions of the device by running or executing the computer program stored in the memory and accessing the data stored in the memory. The memory may mainly include a program storage area and a data storage area. The program storage area may store an operating system, at least one application required for a function, etc.; the data storage area may store data created based on the use of the mobile phone, etc. In addition, the memory may include high-speed random access memory and non-volatile memory, such as a hard disk, internal memory, a plug-in hard disk, a smart media card (SMC), a secure digital (SD) card, a flash card, at least one disk storage device, a flash memory device, or other volatile solid-state storage device.

[0127] The storage medium is a computer-readable storage medium, and the computer program is stored in the computer-readable storage medium. When executed by a processor, the computer program can implement the steps of each of the above-mentioned method embodiments. The computer program includes computer program code, which can be in source code form, object code form, executable file, or some intermediate form. The computer-readable medium can include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, USB flash drive, mobile hard drive, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer memory, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), electric carrier signal, telecommunication signal, and software distribution medium. It should be noted that the content of the computer-readable medium can be appropriately increased or decreased based on the requirements of legislation and patent practice within a jurisdiction. For example, in some jurisdictions, based on legislation and patent practice, computer-readable media does not include electric carrier signals and telecommunication signals.

[0128] The above is a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the principles of the present invention. These improvements and modifications are also considered to be within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A remote sensing satellite photographed area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis method, characterized in that: include: Obtain the latitude and longitude data of the area to be analyzed, the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed, the cloud cover value interval to which the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed belongs, the quarter to which the current time belongs, and the current forecast duration factor; Determine the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located according to the longitude and latitude data, and then obtain the cloud amount forecast accuracy data corresponding to the longitude and latitude grid according to the longitude and latitude grid; According to the cloud amount value interval and the quarter to which the current moment belongs, the cloud amount forecast accuracy corresponding to the cloud amount value interval in the quarter to which the current moment belongs is matched from the cloud amount forecast accuracy data; Calculate the accuracy factor of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed based on the forecast duration and the current forecast duration factor; The cloud amount forecast confidence of the current forecast cloud amount in the area to be analyzed is calculated based on the accuracy factor and the cloud amount forecast accuracy.

2. The remote sensing satellite photographing area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The generation of the cloud cover forecast accuracy data includes: Divide the global area according to longitude and latitude to obtain several longitude and latitude grids; Obtain the historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data corresponding to each longitude and latitude grid; The historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data in each longitude and latitude grid are divided into quarters to obtain the historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data corresponding to each quarter; For each quarter, based on the corresponding historical forecast cloud cover data and historical actual cloud cover data, the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to each cloud cover value interval in the historical forecast cloud cover data is calculated, and then the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to each cloud cover value interval in each quarter is used as the cloud cover forecast accuracy data.

3. The remote sensing satellite photographing area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The cloud amount value interval includes: a first cloud amount value interval corresponding to a sunny day, a second cloud amount value interval corresponding to a cloudy day, a third cloud amount value interval corresponding to a lightly cloudy day, or a fourth cloud amount value interval corresponding to a cloudy day; According to the following formula, the cloud amount forecast accuracy corresponding to each cloud amount value interval is calculated: ； ； ； ； in, The cloud cover forecast accuracy for the first cloud cover value interval corresponding to sunny days The number of times when the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both 0 when it is sunny; For sunny days, the number of times the historical actual cloud value is 0 but the historical forecast cloud value is not 0, plus the number of times both the historical forecast cloud value and the historical actual cloud value are 0; is the cloud cover forecast accuracy of the second cloud cover value interval corresponding to cloudy days; The number of times when the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the range of [0.9, 1] when it is cloudy; When it is cloudy, the number of times the historical actual cloud amount value is within the interval [0.9, 1] while the historical forecast cloud amount value is not within the interval [0.9, 1], plus the number of times the historical forecast cloud amount value and the historical actual cloud amount value are both within the interval [0.9, 1]; is the cloud amount forecast accuracy of the third cloud amount value interval corresponding to the few clouds; When there are few clouds, the number of times the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the range of [0, 0.2]; When there are few clouds, the number of times the historical actual cloud amount value is within the interval [0, 0.2] and the historical forecast cloud amount value is not within the interval [0, 0.2], plus the number of times the historical forecast cloud amount value and the historical actual cloud amount value are both within the interval [0, 0.2]; is the cloud amount forecast accuracy of the fourth cloud amount value interval corresponding to cloudy weather; When it is cloudy, the number of times the historical forecast cloud cover value and the historical actual cloud cover value are both within the range of [0.2, 0.9]; When it is cloudy, the number of times the historical actual cloud amount value is within the interval of [0.2, 0.9] and the historical forecast cloud amount value is not within the interval of [0.2, 0.9], plus the number of times both the historical forecast cloud amount value and the historical actual cloud amount value are within the interval of [0.2, 0.9].

4. The remote sensing satellite photographing area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Before obtaining the cloud amount forecast accuracy data corresponding to the latitude and longitude grid according to the latitude and longitude grid, the method further includes: Determine whether there is corresponding cloud amount forecast accuracy data for the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located. If so, obtain the cloud amount forecast accuracy data corresponding to the longitude and latitude grid; if not, terminate the operation, and associate the current forecast cloud amount of the area to be analyzed with the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located and store them.

5. The remote sensing satellite photographing area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that: After calculating the confidence level of the current forecast cloud amount of the area to be analyzed, it also includes: The space mission plan for the area to be analyzed is adjusted based on the current forecast cloud cover of the area to be analyzed and the forecast cloud cover confidence level corresponding to the current forecast cloud cover.

6. The remote sensing satellite photographing area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The accuracy factor is calculated by the following formula: Af = correlation[Index]; Index = ; Among them, Af is the accuracy factor of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed; Index is the subscript of the forecast duration factor, correlation is the forecast duration factor, and Time is the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed.

7. The remote sensing satellite photographing area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis method according to claim 6, characterized in that: The forecast cloud cover confidence is calculated by the following formula: ； Where Cl is the confidence level of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed; is the cloud cover forecast accuracy corresponding to the area to be analyzed.

8. A remote sensing satellite photographed area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis device, characterized in that: include: A module for acquiring data of the area to be analyzed, a module for acquiring data of cloud amount forecast accuracy, a module for calculating cloud amount forecast accuracy, a module for calculating accuracy factor, and a module for calculating confidence of predicted cloud amount; The data acquisition module for the area to be analyzed is used to obtain the latitude and longitude data of the area to be analyzed, the forecast duration of the current forecast cloud amount in the area to be analyzed, the cloud amount value interval to which the current forecast cloud amount in the area to be analyzed belongs, the quarter to which the current time belongs, and the current forecast duration factor; The cloud amount forecast accuracy rate data acquisition module is used to determine the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be analyzed is located according to the longitude and latitude data, and then obtain the cloud amount forecast accuracy rate data corresponding to the longitude and latitude grid according to the longitude and latitude grid; The cloud amount forecast accuracy calculation module is used to match the cloud amount forecast accuracy corresponding to the cloud amount value interval in the quarter to which the current moment belongs from the cloud amount forecast accuracy data according to the cloud amount value interval and the quarter to which the current moment belongs; The accuracy factor calculation module is used to calculate the accuracy factor of the current forecast cloud cover in the area to be analyzed according to the forecast duration and the current forecast duration factor; The forecast cloud amount confidence calculation module is used to calculate the forecast cloud amount confidence of the current forecast cloud amount in the area to be analyzed based on the accuracy factor and the cloud amount forecast accuracy.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: It includes a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, and when the processor executes the computer program, it implements the remote sensing satellite photographing area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium includes a stored computer program, wherein when the computer program is running, the device where the storage medium is located is controlled to execute the remote sensing satellite photographing area forecast cloud cover confidence analysis method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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