Lease profit and loss prediction method based on lease contract information
Through automated methods based on lease contract information, including incremental borrowing interest rate identification and payment plan scheduling, the complexity and inaccuracy of profit and loss forecasts in leasing business are solved, and efficient and accurate leasing profit and loss forecasts are achieved, improving the improvement of profit and loss forecasts. Work efficiency and accuracy of results.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411036642.7
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-07-31
- Publication Date
- 2024-12-17
AI Technical Summary
In the accounting of leasing business, the leasing profit and loss prediction is complex and the results are inaccurate, resulting in large differences between the predicted results and the actual accounting and low work efficiency.
Using a method based on lease contract information, through incremental borrowing interest rate identification, automatic scheduling of payment plans, automatic derivation of monthly discount coefficients, automatic calculation of the present value of right-of-use assets, automatic calculation of depreciation expenses per period and financial expenses per period Automatic calculation of leasing profit and loss can be realized.
The efficiency of leasing profit and loss prediction has been greatly improved, at least 48 times, input parameters have been reduced, and the deviation between the profit and loss prediction results of incremental leasing business and future value is within 0.5%.
Smart Images
Figure CN119151028A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of financial management and operation forecast automation, and in particular relates to a leasing profit and loss forecasting method based on leasing contract information. Background Art
[0002] After the promulgation of the new lease standard "Enterprise Accounting Standard No. 21 - Lease", higher requirements are put forward for the valuation of right-of-use assets and the professional capabilities of financial personnel. Due to the complexity of leasing business accounting and the many factors affecting leasing profit and loss forecasts, there are problems such as "large differences between forecast results and subsequent actual accounts" and "low forecasting efficiency". Therefore, "a leasing profit and loss forecasting method based on leasing contract information" is needed to realize the automation of leasing profit and loss forecasting and the rapid output of forecast results, thereby reducing the workload of forecasters. Summary of the invention
[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting leasing profit and loss based on leasing contract information, to achieve one-click prediction of leasing profit and loss, to solve the problems of time-consuming and inaccurate prediction results of traditional manual prediction of leasing profit and loss, and to increase the efficiency of leasing calculation by at least 48 times; to achieve a deviation of the incremental leasing business profit and loss prediction result from the future value within 0.5%.
[0004] To achieve the above object, the technical solution of the present invention is:
[0005] A method for predicting lease profit and loss based on lease contract information comprises the following steps:
[0006] S1: Incremental borrowing rate identification;
[0007] The monthly incremental borrowing rate corresponding to the lease period is automatically matched according to the contract lease period.
[0008] The monthly incremental loan interest rates are divided into three tiers, namely LRP1, LRP2, and LRP3, and the corresponding lease periods are 1-36 months (including 36 months), 36-60 months (including 50 months), and annual interest rates for more than 60 months.
[0009] Serial number Lease Period Monthly incremental borrowing rate (%) 1 1-36 months (inclusive) LRP1 2 36-60 months (50 months inclusive) LRP2 3 Annual interest rate for more than 60 months LRP3
[0010] S2: Automatic scheduling of payment plans;
[0011] First, the number of payments expected during the lease term is estimated. In a method of predicting the lease profit and loss based on lease contract information, the number of payments expected during the lease term is estimated using an annual payment method, that is,
[0012] The expected number of payments during the lease period = the smallest integer greater than ("lease period" in the contract information / 12).
[0013] Then, the payment amount for each period is estimated. In a method of predicting the lease profit and loss based on lease contract information, the average payment per year is used to estimate the payment amount for each period, that is,
[0014] Amount of payment per period = ("Total rent excluding tax" in the contract information) / number of payments;
[0015] Finally, the time of each payment is estimated. In a method of predicting the profit and loss of a lease based on the lease contract information, the time of each payment is estimated by using the median and the last payment time is no later than the end date of the lease agreed in the contract. The details are as follows:
[0016] If the number of payments N is equal to 1, the first payment time = the month when the contract lease ends.
[0017] If the number of payments N is equal to 2, the first payment time = the contract lease start month + 5 months; the second payment time = the contract lease end month;
[0018] If the number of payments N is greater than 2, the first payment time = contract lease start month + 5 months; the (N-1)th payment time = contract lease start month + 5 months + 12*(N-2); the (N)th payment time = contract lease end date.
[0019] Note: N represents the total number of payments.
[0020] The estimated payment time and amount for each period are automatically derived using a median method, which enables automatic scheduling of funding plans during the lease period, greatly reduces the input parameters required for leasing profit and loss forecasts, and improves the efficiency of leasing profit and loss forecasts.
[0021] S3: Automatic derivation of monthly discount factor;
[0022] First, the number of months between each payment period and the contract lease start date is calculated. In a method for predicting lease profit and loss based on lease contract information, the payment period derived in "S2: Automatic Scheduling of Payment Plan" minus the contract lease start date is used as the number of months between the payment date.
[0023] The time interval between each payment = each payment time - the contract lease start date. In this algorithm, the time interval between each payment needs to be converted into a time interval in months.
[0024] Finally, calculate the present value coefficient corresponding to the payment amount in each period, that is,
[0025] Present value coefficient of each payment amount = 1 / POWER ((1 + monthly incremental borrowing rate), time interval between each payment)
[0026] S4: Automatic calculation of the present value of right-of-use assets;
[0027] The present value of the right-of-use asset is calculated based on the payment amount for each period derived from "S2: Automatic Scheduling of Payment Plan" and the present value coefficient corresponding to the payment amount for each period calculated in "S3: Automatic Derivation of Monthly Discount Factor". The present value of the right-of-use asset is equal to the sum of the present values of the payment amounts for each period, that is,
[0028] Where N is the total number of payments.
[0029] S5: Automatic calculation of depreciation expense for each period;
[0030] First, based on the contract information, determine whether the purchase right will be exercised in the future.
[0031] Then calculate the expected depreciation of the right-of-use asset under the "exercise of purchase rights". The leased equipment under the "exercise of purchase rights" is treated as owned equipment, so the depreciation of the leased equipment under the "exercise of purchase rights" is consistent with the depreciation period of owned assets.
[0032] The depreciation cost of the right-of-use asset for "exercising the right to purchase" in each period = the present value of the right-of-use asset / (depreciation period of owned equipment*12).
[0033] Finally, the expected depreciation of the right-of-use asset for "non-exercise purchase rights" is calculated. In a method of predicting lease profit and loss based on lease contract information, the leased equipment for "non-exercise purchase rights" is treated as the right-of-use asset for each period according to the lease term.
[0034] Depreciation of the right-of-use asset in each period for "non-exercise of purchase right" = current value of the right-of-use asset / (lease term)
[0035] S6: Automatic calculation of financial expenses for each period;
[0036] The calculation of each period's financial expenses depends on the balance of the lease liabilities at the end of the previous period and the monthly discount rate. The financial expenses of each period are calculated period by period. That is:
[0037] The first period financial expenses = (present value of lease liabilities at the beginning of the period) * monthly discount rate. The present value of lease liabilities at the beginning of the period is obtained by "S4: Automatic calculation of the present value of right-of-use assets and the present value of lease liabilities".
[0038] The balance of lease liabilities at the end of the first period = the present value of lease liabilities at the beginning of the period + the financial expenses of the first period - the payment amount of this period. The payment amount of this period is obtained by "S2: Automatic Scheduling of Payment Plan".
[0039] Financial expenses in period M-1 = balance of lease liabilities at the end of the previous period * monthly discount rate
[0040] Balance of lease liabilities at the end of period M-1 = Balance of lease liabilities at the end of period M-2 + Financial expenses of period M-1 - Payment amount of period M-1
[0041] Iterate until the last phase
[0042]
[0043] Where M is the number of months of the lease.
[0044] The working principle of the present invention is:
[0045] For non-short-term lease business, forecasts are made according to the established right-of-use assets. At the same time, when determining the value of the right-of-use assets, not only is an automatic scheduling method of the median payment time adopted to ensure that the expected payment time is basically consistent with the actual payment time, but also the scheduling method of the median payment time is used to offset the positive and negative deviations of the overall sample measurement, further ensuring the accuracy of the data of the overall sample measurement; a monthly discount factor is also adopted to make the present value calculation change of each payment amount during the lease period more accurate, supporting the accuracy of the lease profit and loss forecast.
[0046] The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
[0047] It improves the quality and efficiency of leasing profit and loss forecasting, realizes one-click forecasting of leasing profit and loss, eliminates the time-consuming and long-line data collection and integration work of units at all levels, and innovates the previous method of manual offline forecasting using Excel. The efficiency of leasing calculation is increased by at least 48 times.
[0048] We have promoted the accuracy of leasing profit and loss forecast results, and achieved a deviation of less than 0.5% between the profit and loss forecast results of incremental leasing business and the future value. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0049] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0050] The specific implementation of the present invention is further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. The following embodiments are only used to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and cannot be used to limit the protection scope of the present invention.
[0051] A method for predicting leasing profit and loss based on leasing contract information. Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the present invention, comprising the following steps:
[0052] S1: Incremental borrowing rate identification;
[0053] The monthly incremental borrowing rate corresponding to the lease period is automatically matched according to the contract lease period.
[0054] In a leasing profit and loss forecasting method based on leasing contract information, the monthly incremental borrowing interest rate is divided into three levels, namely LRP1, LRP2, and LRP3, and the corresponding lease periods are 1-36 months (including 36 months), 36-60 months (including 50 months), and annual interest rates for more than 60 months.
[0055]
[0056]
[0057] S2: Automatic scheduling of payment plans;
[0058] First, estimate the expected number of payments during the lease period, and use the annual payment method to temporarily estimate the expected number of payments during the lease period, that is,
[0059] The expected number of payments during the lease period = the smallest integer greater than ("lease period" in the contract information / 12).
[0060] Then, the payment amount for each period is estimated. In a method of predicting the lease profit and loss based on lease contract information, the average payment per year is used to estimate the payment amount for each period, that is,
[0061] Amount of payment per period = ("Total rent excluding tax" in the contract information) / number of payments;
[0062] Finally, the payment time for each period is estimated by using the median and the last payment time is no later than the end date of the lease agreed in the contract. The details are as follows:
[0063] If the number of payments N is equal to 1, the first payment time = the month when the contract lease ends.
[0064] If the number of payments N is equal to 2, the first payment time = the contract lease start month + 5 months; the second payment time = the contract lease end month;
[0065] If the number of payments N is greater than 2, the first payment time = contract lease start month + 5 months; the (N-1)th payment time = contract lease start month + 5 months + 12*(N-2); the (N)th payment time = contract lease end date.
[0066] Note: N represents the total number of payments.
[0067] S3: Automatic derivation of monthly discount factor;
[0068] First, calculate the number of months between each payment period and the contract lease start date, and subtract the contract lease start date from the payment period derived in "S2: Automatic Payment Plan Scheduling" to obtain the number of months between the payment date.
[0069] The time interval between each payment = each payment time - the contract lease start date. In this algorithm, the time interval between each payment needs to be converted into a time interval in months.
[0070] Finally, calculate the present value coefficient corresponding to the payment amount in each period, that is,
[0071] Present value coefficient of each payment amount = 1 / POWER ((1 + monthly incremental borrowing rate), time interval between each payment)
[0072] S4: Automatic calculation of the present value of right-of-use assets;
[0073] The present value of the right-of-use asset is calculated based on the payment amount for each period derived from "S2: Automatic Scheduling of Payment Plan" and the present value coefficient corresponding to the payment amount for each period calculated in "S3: Automatic Derivation of Monthly Discount Factor". The present value of the right-of-use asset is equal to the sum of the present values of the payment amounts for each period, that is,
[0074] Where N is the total number of payments.
[0075] The payment amount for each period is obtained through the automatic scheduling of the payment plan in S2; the present value coefficient of the payment amount for each period is obtained through the automatic derivation of the monthly discount coefficient in S3;
[0076] Without considering the cost of dismantling and restoration, the present value of the right-of-use asset is equal to the present value of the lease liability at the beginning of the first period, that is,
[0077] Present value of right-of-use asset = present value of lease liability at the beginning of the first period;
[0078] S5: Automatic calculation of depreciation expense for each period;
[0079] First, based on the contract information, determine whether the purchase right will be exercised in the future.
[0080] Then calculate the expected depreciation of the right-of-use asset under the "exercise of purchase rights". The leased equipment under the "exercise of purchase rights" is treated as owned equipment, so the depreciation of the leased equipment under the "exercise of purchase rights" is consistent with the depreciation period of owned assets.
[0081] The depreciation cost of the right-of-use asset for "exercising the right to purchase" in each period = the present value of the right-of-use asset / (depreciation period of owned equipment*12).
[0082] Finally, the expected depreciation of the right-of-use asset for "non-exercise purchase rights" is calculated. The depreciation of the right-of-use asset for each period of the leased equipment for "non-exercise purchase rights" is calculated according to the lease term.
[0083] Depreciation of the right-of-use asset in each period for "non-exercise of purchase right" = current value of the right-of-use asset / (lease term)
[0084] S6: Automatic calculation of financial expenses for each period;
[0085] The calculation of financial expenses for each period depends on the balance of lease liabilities at the end of the previous period and the monthly discount rate. The financial expenses for each period are calculated period by period. The monthly incremental borrowing rate is obtained by identifying the incremental borrowing rate in S1. The balance of lease liabilities at the end of each period = the balance of lease liabilities at the end of the previous period + the financial expenses of this period - the payment amount of this period. The balance of lease liabilities at the end of each period is calculated period by period. The details are as follows:
[0086] The first period financial expenses = (present value of lease liabilities at the beginning of the period) * monthly discount rate. The present value of lease liabilities at the beginning of the period is obtained by "S4: Automatic calculation of the present value of right-of-use assets and the present value of lease liabilities".
[0087] The balance of lease liabilities at the end of the first period = the present value of lease liabilities at the beginning of the period + the financial expenses of the first period - the payment amount of this period. The payment amount of this period is obtained by "S2: Automatic Scheduling of Payment Plan".
[0088] Financial expenses in period M-1 = balance of lease liabilities at the end of the previous period * monthly discount rate
[0089] Balance of lease liabilities at the end of period M-1 = Balance of lease liabilities at the end of period M-2 + Financial expenses of period M-1 - Payment amount of period M-1
[0090] Iterate until the last phase
[0091]
[0092] Where M is the number of months of the lease.
[0093] The present invention solves the problems of difficulty in calculating the original value of right-of-use assets and inaccurate prediction of lease profit and loss, solves the business pain point of complicated profit and loss prediction work in the process of leasing business management, and improves the benefit and efficiency of lease profit and loss prediction work.
[0094] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the technical principles of the present invention. These improvements and modifications should also be regarded as the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims
1. A method for predicting leasing profit and loss based on leasing contract information, characterized in that: The steps include: S1: Incremental borrowing rate identification; Automatically match the monthly incremental borrowing rate corresponding to the lease term according to the contract lease term; S2: Automatic scheduling of payment plans; First, estimate the expected number of payments during the lease period, and use the annual payment method to temporarily estimate the expected number of payments during the lease period, that is, Estimated number of payments during the lease period = the smallest integer greater than ("lease period" in the contract information / 12); Then estimate the payment amount for each period, and use the average payment method per year to temporarily estimate the payment amount for each period, that is, the payment amount for each period = ("total rent excluding tax" in the contract information) / number of payments; Finally, estimate the payment time of each period, using the median and the last payment time being no later than the end date of the lease agreed in the contract; S3: Automatic derivation of monthly discount factor; First, calculate the number of months between each payment period and the contract lease start date. Subtract the contract lease start date from the payment period to get the number of months between the payment dates. That is, The time interval between each payment = the time of each payment - the start date of the contract lease. The time interval between each payment is converted into a time interval in months. Finally, calculate the present value coefficient corresponding to the payment amount in each period, that is, Present value coefficient of each payment amount = 1 / POWER ((1 + monthly incremental borrowing rate), time interval between each payment); S4: Automatic calculation of the present value of right-of-use assets; The present value of the right-of-use asset is calculated based on the payment amount of each period and the present value coefficient corresponding to the payment amount of each period. The present value of the right-of-use asset is equal to the sum of the present values of the payment amounts of each period, that is, Where N is the total number of payments; The payment amount for each period is obtained through the automatic scheduling of the payment plan in S2; the present value coefficient of the payment amount for each period is obtained through the automatic derivation of the monthly discount coefficient in S3; Without considering the cost of dismantling and restoration, the present value of the right-of-use asset is equal to the present value of the lease liability at the beginning of the first period, that is, the present value of the right-of-use asset = the present value of the lease liability at the beginning of the first period; S5: Automatic calculation of depreciation expense for each period; First, based on the contract information, determine whether the purchase right will be exercised in the future; Then calculate the expected depreciation of the right-of-use asset under the "exercise of purchase rights"; treat the leased equipment under the "exercise of purchase rights" as owned equipment, so the depreciation of the leased equipment under the "exercise of purchase rights" is consistent with the depreciation period of owned assets; Depreciation of the right-of-use asset for "exercise of purchase right" in each period = current value of the right-of-use asset / (depreciation period of owned equipment*12); Finally, the expected depreciation of the right-of-use asset for "non-exercise of purchase right" is calculated; the depreciation of the right-of-use asset for each period of the leased equipment for "non-exercise of purchase right" is calculated according to the lease term; Depreciation of the right-of-use asset in each period if the purchase right is not exercised = the current value of the right-of-use asset / (lease term); S6: Automatic calculation of financial expenses for each period; The calculation of financial expenses for each period depends on the balance of lease liabilities at the end of the previous period and the monthly discount rate. The financial expenses for each period are calculated period by period. The monthly incremental borrowing rate is obtained by identifying the incremental borrowing rate in S1. The balance of lease liabilities at the end of each period = the balance of lease liabilities at the end of the previous period + the financial expenses of this period - the payment amount of this period. The balance of lease liabilities at the end of each period is calculated period by period. The details are as follows: First-period financial expenses = (beginning lease liability present value) * monthly discount rate. The beginning lease liability present value is automatically calculated by the present value of right-of-use assets and the present value of lease liabilities in S4. The balance of lease liabilities at the end of the first period = the present value of lease liabilities at the beginning of the period + the financial expenses of the first period - the payment amount of this period, where the payment amount of this period is obtained by the automatic scheduling of the payment plan in step S2; Financial expenses in period M-1 = balance of lease liabilities at the end of the previous period * monthly discount rate; Lease liability balance at the end of period M-1 = Lease liability balance at the end of period M-2 + Financial expenses of period M-1 - Payment amount of period M-1; Iterate one by one until the last phase; Where N is the number of months of the lease.
2. A method for predicting leasing profit and loss based on leasing contract information according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S2, the median payment is used and the last payment is no later than the end date of the lease as agreed in the contract. The details are as follows: If the number of payments N is equal to 1, the first payment time = the month when the contract lease ends; If the number of payments N is equal to 2, the first payment time = the contract lease start month + 5 months; the second payment time = the contract lease end month; If the number of payments N is greater than 2, the first payment time = the contract lease start month + 5 months; the (N-1)th payment time = the contract lease start month + 5 months + 12*(N-2); the (N)th payment time = the contract lease end date; N represents the total number of payments.
3. The method for predicting leasing profit and loss based on leasing contract information according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S3, the monthly discount coefficient is used for calculation, which is different from the calculation of the present value of the right-of-use asset based on years. The calculation of the present value of the right-of-use asset based on months is more realistic and the profit and loss forecast is more accurate.
4. The method for predicting leasing profit and loss based on leasing contract information according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S5, "exercise of purchase rights" is used to distinguish between lease businesses expected to be purchased and lease businesses expected to be returned at maturity, and different algorithm rules are used to calculate the depreciation expense for each period, so that the calculation of predicted profit and loss is more in line with relevant requirements.